When will the decline of oil begin, at what rate?

If the German Peak Oil report is correct, once investors believe oil production is declining, that will be the end of the stock market, since growth can no longer occur and debts be repaid.  The financial system is precarious enough to pop before that, but this could be the event that triggers the explosion.  It will wipe out pensions, savings accounts, and in general demolish paper wealth.

Olivier Rech: Starting around 2013. Production of oil has already been on a plateau since 2005 at around 82 mb/d.  It appears to me impossible to go much higher. Since demand is still on an increasing trajectory, the first tensions arise between 2013 and 2015.
Olivier Rech developed petroleum scenarios for the International Energy Agency over a three year period, up until 2009. This French economist now advises large investment funds on behalf of La Française AM, a Parisian assets management firm.  His forecasts for future petroleum production are now much more pessimistic than those published by the IEA.
Source:  5 Jan 2012. Oil will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency. theoilddrum.com

HIRSCH, BEZDEK, & WENDLING “We prefer to think in terms of the impending decline in world oil production, because world liquid fuels production has been on a fluctuating plateau since mid-2004 and because a small upward fluctuation in production is not of major economic importance. We expect the current plateau to continue. As to the timing of the onset of decline, we see no reason to change our conclusion of a year ago, when we forecast that the decline would occur in 2-5 years. That’s now 1-4 years. Note that the onset of decline will be masked by production fluctuations, so the actual onset date will necessarily have to be back dated. As we said previously, the realization of the decline in world liquid fuels production could occur at any time, triggered by political or market events.” Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, and Bob Wendling are the authors of The Impending World Energy Mess.
Source. 2 Jan 2012. Commentary: 2012 Predictions. ASPO USA Peak Oil Review.

JEFFREY J. BROWN I estimate that the Available Net Export decline rate will accelerate to between 5% and 8% per year in the 2010 to 2020 time frame.
Jeffrey J. Brown is the creator of the Export Land Model and a Member of ASPO-USA’s Board of Directors.
Source. 2 Jan 2012. Commentary: 2012 Predictions. ASPO USA Peak Oil Review.


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