Peak Oil Barrel posts

Although theoildrum is gone, there are many other places to get up-to-date information.  Ron Patterson’s website focuses mainly on North American production, but here are some more global posts of interest

Oil Supply, Oil Price and the Economy  

EIA’s International Energy Statistics Updated  April 23, 2014

OPEC Update and my argument that OPEC is producing flat out  March 12, 2014

When Will Peak Oil Actually Arrive? Costs Way Too High and Rising  February 25, 2014

if you are talking about “Conventional Crude Oil” it arrived in 2005.  But when will Conventional + Unconventional oil peak?  My opinion is:
There is a 10% chance that the peak was in 2013
There is a 25% chance that oil will peak in 2014 or before.
There is a 40%  chance that oil will peak in 2015 or before.
There is a 70%  chance that oil will peak in 2016 or before.
There is a 90%  chance that oil will peak in 2017 or before.

When Will US Light Tight Oil (LTO) Peak? by Dennis Coyne  December 16, 2013

Coyne: Most likely 2016-2020 (2018+/- 2 years) at about 3.1+/- 0.2 MMb/d

ASPO December 2, 2013 newsletter: many independent analysts predict a tight oil peak of 2017, but it could be sooner because “the rapid exploitation of the “sweet spots” could mean the places to drill for tight oil that can be produced economically could run out before then.  Overall shale oil production may be profitable, perhaps only marginally, but the day will come when these multi-million dollar wells are not covering the high costs of drilling, fracking, and washing out salt buildup.

David Hughes August 2013: tight-oil peak 2020-2022. Bakken will peak 2020, Eagle Ford between 2015 & 2017, Haynesville peaked 2010 and is 20% below peak now.

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