Wiki has an article about the Rare Earth Hypothesis, which argues that the origin of life and the evolution of biological complexity such as sexually reproducing, multicellular organisms on Earth (and, subsequently, human intelligence) required an improbable combination of astrophysical and geological events and circumstances. The hypothesis argues that complex extraterrestrial life is a very improbable phenomenon and likely to be extremely rare. The term “Rare Earth” originates from Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe (2000), a book by Peter Ward, a geologist and paleontologist, and Donald E. Brownlee, an astronomer and astrobiologist, both faculty members at the University of Washington (do read the book!)
It may be a depressing idea, but I think it’s a profound way to inspire people to work harder towards taking good care of the planet so that intelligent life survives HERE.
Below is an addition to the reasons why life may be rare:
ASTROBIOLOGY Volume 16, Number 1, 2016 a Mary Ann Liebert, Inc. DOI:10.1089/ast.2015.1387
Abstract. The Case for a Gaian Bottleneck: The Biology of Habitability
The prerequisites and ingredients for life seem to be abundantly available in the Universe. However, the Universe does not seem to be teeming with life. The most common explanation for this is a low probability for the emergence of life (an emergence bottleneck), notionally due to the intricacies of the molecular recipe. Here, we present an alternative Gaian bottleneck explanation: If life emerges on a planet, it only rarely evolves quickly enough to regulate greenhouse gases and albedo, thereby maintaining surface temperatures compatible with liquid water and habitability. Such a Gaian bottleneck suggests that (i) extinction is the cosmic default for most life that has ever emerged on the surfaces of wet rocky planets in the Universe and (ii) rocky planets need to be inhabited to remain habitable. In the Gaian bottleneck model, the maintenance of planetary habitability is a property more associated with an unusually rapid evolution of biological regulation of surface volatiles than with the luminosity and distance to the host star. Key Words: Life—Habitability—Gaia—Abiogenesis habitable zone (AHZ)—Circumstellar habitable zone (CHZ). Astrobiology 16, 7–22.8.
We are proposing a potentially universal sequence of events on initially wet rocky planets that can be summarized thusly:
First *0.5 Gyr: Hot, high bombardment, uninhabitable.
*0.5 to *1.0 Gyr: Cooler, reduced bombardment, continuous volatile loss.
*0.5 to *1.0 Gyr: Emergence of life in an environment with a tendency to evolve away from habitability.
*1.0 to *1.5Gyr: Inability to maintain habitability, followed by extinction. As a rare alternative, this period would experience the rapid evolution of Gaian regulation and the maintenance of habitability, followed by the persistence of life for several billion more years.
Between the early heat pulses, freezing, volatile content variation, and runaway positive feedbacks, maintaining life on an initially wet rocky planet in the habitable zone may be like trying to ride a wild bull. Most life falls off. Life may be rare in the Universe, not because it is difficult to get started, but because habitable environments are difficult to maintain during the first billion years.
In the book Vital Dust, de Duve (1995) presented the case that water and energy are common and abiogenesis may be a cosmic imperative. The most important constraint on the existence of life in the Universe may be whether life, after emerging and evolving into a biosphere, can evolve global mechanisms rapidly enough to mediate the positive and negative feedbacks of abiotic atmospheric evolution. We hypothesize that the early evolution of biologically mediated negative feedback processes, or Gaian regulation as pro- posed by Lovelock and Margulis (1974), may be necessary to maintain habitability because of the strength, rapidity, and universality of abiotic positive feedbacks on the sur- faces of rocky planets in traditional CHZs.
We argue that the habitable surface environments of rocky planets usually become uninhabitable due to abiotic runaway positive feedback mechanisms involving surface temperature, albedo, and the loss of atmospheric volatiles. Because of the strength, rapidity, and universality of abiotic positive feedbacks in the atmospheres of rocky planets in traditional CHZs, biotic negative feedback or Gaian regulation may be necessary to maintain habitability. The evolution of biospheric regulation of surface volatiles, temperature, and albedo can become a Gaian bottleneck to the persistence of life. This Gaian bottleneck may be a better explanation for the non-prevalence of life than the traditional emergence bottleneck paradigm.