Category Archives: Predictions

After a collapse will people grow their own food or plunder others?

[ In this post Ugo Bardi looks at what will happen if society collapses and we have to suddenly go back to pre-industrial agriculture conditions.  A back to the land movement where people grow their own food may not happen. … Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, Peak Food, Phosphorus, Scientists, Soil, Ugo Bardi | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Limits to Growth? 2016 United Nations report provides best evidence yet

This peer-reviewed United Nations report (excerpts below) ought to scare anyone who understands exponential growth. Here are a few examples to think about while reading the report: If 2 grams of gold grew at a 5% compound rate for 2,000 … Continue reading

Posted in ! PEAK EVERYTHING, Distribution of Wealth, Exponential Growth, Limits To Growth, Organizations, Other Experts | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

USGS Groundwater Depletion study of Aquifer decline in the United States

[ The Ogallala and many other aquifers are depleting rapidly and growing more toxic from pesticides, feedlot waste, intruding salts, and other pollution.  Most won’t be recharged until after the next ice age.   The Ogallala is one of Earth’s largest … Continue reading

Posted in Agriculture, Government, Groundwater, Peak Food, Water | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Limits to Growth is on schedule. Collapse likely around 2020

[Unfortunately, this is not an April Fool’s joke… Other articles on Limits to Growth Ugo Bardi. October 2015. Malthus the prophet of doom. cassandralegacy.blogspot.com.  The demolition of Thomas Malthus’ work in our times is often based on accusing him of … Continue reading

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Global oil risks in the early 21st century, Energy Policy 2011

[This is a large excerpt from an excellent 18-page paper I think predicts how the future will unfold as well as a good overview of our predicament. Alice Friedemann] Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André. 2011. Global oil risks in … Continue reading

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Richard Heinberg: Only less will do

Richard Heinberg. March 16, 2015. Only Less Will Do. Post Carbon Institute. [portions of this article were cut, reworded, and rearranged] Almost nobody likes to hear about the role of scale in our global environmental crisis, because if growth is … Continue reading

Posted in Birth Control, By People, Climate Change, Overpopulation, Richard Heinberg | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Gail Tverberg The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem

Tverberg, G. March 9, 2015. The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem. ourfiniteworld.com For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand … Continue reading

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ASPO: Top Ten 2014 News Stories Regarding Oil and the Economy

Andrews, S., Whipple, T. January 6, 2015. Top Ten 2014 News Stories Regarding Oil and the Economy. January 6, 2015. 1. Oil Price Crash The great price crash of 2014 could well turn out to be one of the defining … Continue reading

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Naomi Oreskes on “The Collapse of Western Civilization”

A Chronicler of Warnings Denied: Naomi Oreskes Imagines the Future History of Climate Change By Claudia Dreifus, Oct 27, 2014, New York Times “I get from the scientific community a feeling that things are going from bad to worse. I … Continue reading

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Transportation: How long can we adapt before we fall off the Net Energy Cliff?

Introduction The problem we face is a liquid fuel crisis.  Absolutely essential vehicles, such as agricultural tractors and combines, railroads, and trucks run on diesel fuel, ships on bunker fuel.  They can never be battery or fuel-cell operated or electrified, … Continue reading

Posted in Cascading Failure, Electric Grid, Energy, Exports decline to ZERO, Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Net Energy Cliff, Transportation, Transportation | 3 Comments