Category Archives: Scientists

After a collapse will people grow their own food or plunder others?

[ In this post Ugo Bardi looks at what will happen if society collapses and we have to suddenly go back to pre-industrial agriculture conditions.  A back to the land movement where people grow their own food may not happen. … Continue reading

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Limits to Growth is on schedule. Collapse likely around 2020

[Unfortunately, this is not an April Fool’s joke… Other articles on Limits to Growth 2017-5-16 The Fallacy of Endless Economic Growth What economists around the world get wrong about the future Ugo Bardi. October 2015. Malthus the prophet of doom. … Continue reading

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Global oil risks in the early 21st century, Energy Policy 2011

[This is a large excerpt from an excellent 18-page paper I think predicts how the future will unfold as well as a good overview of our predicament. Alice Friedemann] Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André. 2011. Global oil risks in … Continue reading

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Naomi Oreskes on “The Collapse of Western Civilization”

A Chronicler of Warnings Denied: Naomi Oreskes Imagines the Future History of Climate Change By Claudia Dreifus, Oct 27, 2014, New York Times “I get from the scientific community a feeling that things are going from bad to worse. I … Continue reading

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Homer-Dixon Key findings on resources and war / violence

The Project on Environmental Scarcities, State Capacity, and Civil Violence Key Findings Abot 50 experts from 5 countries, developed a detailed set of conceptual tools for thinking about environmental scarcity and state capacity. Environmental scarcity has 3 sources: reduced resource … Continue reading

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Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth

David J. Murphy and Charles A. S. Hall. 2011. Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth in “Ecological Economics Reviews.” Robert Costanza, Karin Limburg & Ida Kubiszewski, Eds. Annals of the New York Academy of … Continue reading

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Predictions by scientists and engineers

Charles A. Hall and David J. Murphy.  Predictions for 2011 We predict (with relatively little certainty assigned to it) that there will continue to be (for a while) a mild economic recovery, which will increase the demand for oil, and … Continue reading

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Marty Hoffert predicts feudal economy at best, hunter-gatherer at worst from future climate change

Marty Hoffert, is an emeritus physics professor at NYU and energy researcher, who wrote one of the most important articles on potential energy resources that could replace fossil fuels sent this note by e-mail: However welcome the news may be … Continue reading

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The Future of Humanity: a Lecture by Isaac Asimov

The Future of Humanity: a Lecture by Isaac Asimov Newark College of Engineering, November 8, 1974  http://www.asimovonline.com/oldsite/future_of_humanity.html [I’ve truncated most of this very long article] We wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in [if people weren’t stupid, illustrated with humorous … Continue reading

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Ugo Bardi: Quite likely we’ll have a fast collapse, a “Seneca Cliff”

Excerpts from: Ugo Bardi. August 28, 2011. The Seneca effect: why decline is faster than growth. Ugo Bardi. July 15, 2013.The punctuated collapse of the Roman Empire. Could it be that the Seneca cliff is what we are facing, right … Continue reading

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