Category Archives: Stages of

Book review of Turchin’s “Secular Cycles” and “War & Peace & War”

Preface. This is a book review of both “Secular Cycles” and “War & Peace & War”.  I recommend reading “War & Peace & War” first, then the more difficult “Secular Cycles”. Turchin has found patterns in the rise and fall … Continue reading

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Net Energy Cliff Will Lead to Collapse of Civilization

The remaining oil is poor quality, and the energy to get this often remote oil so great that more and more energy (blue) goes into oil production itself, leaving far less — the grey area — available to fuel the … Continue reading

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Civil war coming?

Preface. I read Turchin’s latest book which attempts to show why his past theories about the rise and fall of agrarian nations also applies to our modern civilization.  But there was not one mention of fossil fuels, natural resources, or … Continue reading

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David Korowicz: Catastrophic shocks through complex socio-economic systems

David Korowicz. 2013. Catastrophic Shocks through Complex Socio-Economic Systems. The globalized economy has become more complex (connectivity, interdependence, and speed), delocalized, with increasing concentration within critical systems. This has made us all more vulnerable to systemic shocks. This paper provides … Continue reading

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Homer-Dixon Key findings on resources and war / violence

The Project on Environmental Scarcities, State Capacity, and Civil Violence Key Findings Abot 50 experts from 5 countries, developed a detailed set of conceptual tools for thinking about environmental scarcity and state capacity. Environmental scarcity has 3 sources: reduced resource … Continue reading

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Articles about the Stages of Collapse

Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies 1996. Joseph A. Tainter from GETTING DOWN TO EARTH: Practical Applications of Ecological Economics, Island Press, 1996; ISBN 1-55963-503-7 http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/1559635037 OVERVIEW   Historical knowledge is essential to practical applications of ecological economics. Systems of problem … Continue reading

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Sharon Astyk on stages of Collapse

Astyk, Sharon. 19 Mar 2012. Commentary: Collapse? Really? ASPO Peak Oil Review. 1. People get really mad at their government. This usually leads to some measure of civil unrest, and often changes of government, some of which are meaningful and … Continue reading

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