Category Archives: How Much Left

Oil discoveries in 2015 lowest since 1947 — 2016 likely to be even lower. Bloomberg

  Mikael, H. August 29, 2016. Oil Discoveries at 70-Year Low Signal Supply Shortfall Ahead. Bloomberg. Explorers in 2015 discovered only about a tenth as much oil as they have annually on average since 1960. This year, they’ll probably find … Continue reading

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Civilization goes over the net energy cliff in 2022 — just 6 years away

[ Below are excerpts from 3 posts by Louis Arnoux (see the full versions here) and a 1-hour video explaining the Hill’s group report here.  Since then I’ve been researching the Hills Group report and didn’t know enough math to … Continue reading

Posted in Cascading Failure, EROEI remaining oil too low, How Much Left, Interdependencies, Limits To Growth, Net Energy Cliff, Predictions, Scientists | Tagged , , , , , , | 20 Comments

How Much Oil is Left?

The Power of Exponential Growth: Every 10 years we have burned more oil than all previous decades [ There is a lot of oil left. The problem is, most of the remaining oil is unconventional, which needs a lot more … Continue reading

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Peak Fossil Fuels: overview of peak oil, coal, and natural gas

[ Below are overviews of peak oil, coal, and natural gas, each followed by additional reading material from my book “When trucks stop running”. My book also explains why we are unlikely to be able to electrify transportation, as well … Continue reading

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Patzek 2016: Is U.S. Shale Oil Production Peaking?

Tad Patzek.  March 16, 2016 Is U.S. Shale Oil & Gas Production Peaking? Part II: Oil Production.  patzek-lifeitself.blogspot.com In Part I of this post, I discussed production of gas from the four largest shale plays in the U.S. Ordered by … Continue reading

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Another reason to think oil production probably peaked in 2005

[ In this Kurt Cobb post, Texas oilman Jeffrey brown explains why the story of oil production growth from 2005 to 2014 is probably wrong, because the increase came from lease condensate, not oil.  If this is true then Brown … Continue reading

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Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production

Excerpts from: Hook, M., Hirsch, R., Aleklett, K. June 2009. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Policy 37(6): 2262-2272 Future trends in giant oil field decline rates             … Continue reading

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Giant Oil Field Decline Rates

Summary of article 1, Cobb’s “Aging Giant Oil Fields” 2013 The world’s 507 giant oil fields comprise a little over 1% of all oil fields, but produce 60% of current world supply Of the 331 largest fields, 261, or 79%, … Continue reading

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Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth

David J. Murphy and Charles A. S. Hall. 2011. Energy return on investment, peak oil, and the end of economic growth in “Ecological Economics Reviews.” Robert Costanza, Karin Limburg & Ida Kubiszewski, Eds. Annals of the New York Academy of … Continue reading

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Export Land Model and Energy Prices

What the Export Land Model Means for Energy Prices David Galland, Managing Director Casey Research June 5th, 2008 To understand the importance of exports when discussing peak oil, ask yourself the question: “What’s more important: the fact that global oil … Continue reading

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