Category Archives: Cascading Failure

High-Tech can’t last: limited essential elements with limited lifespans

Posted on June 8, 2019 by

There are 17 rare earth elements in the periodic table. About nine of those elements go into every iPhone sold… and if China were suddenly to disappear from a map tomorrow, Apple would lose about 90% of those elements.  Source: … Continue reading →

Posted in Alternative Energy, Cascading Failure, Elements: Critical, Elements: Rare Earth, Microchips and computers, Supply Chains | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

David Korowicz: A study of global system collapse

Posted on July 1, 2018 by

[ I’ve extracted about half of Korowicz’s paper, left out the references, math, charts, and tables, so you might want to read the original document yourself.   This is a great explanation – one of the best – of the intertwined … Continue reading →

Posted in 2) Collapse, Cascading Failure, Critical Thinking, David Korowicz, Interdependencies, Liebig's Law, Social Disorder, Supply Chains | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

What would happen if trucks stopped running?

Posted on October 1, 2017 by

Preface. In “Why You Should Love Trucks” I showed that essential supply chains depend on trucks nearly completely. Because of little inventory and dependence on just-in-time deliveries, our civilization would almost immediately feel the repercussions of trucks stopping.  That sounds … Continue reading →

Posted in Cascading Failure, Dependence on Oil, Electric trucks impossible, Infrastructure, Oil Shocks, Transportation, Transportation, Trucks | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on What would happen if trucks stopped running?

Transportation: How long can we adapt before we fall off the Net Energy Cliff?

Posted on August 27, 2017 by

[ I first published this in 2014. After re-reading it when damnthematrix republished it recently, I saw corrections and updates that needed to be made, so here is the improved version. Keep in mind that  I am wildly speculating, there … Continue reading →

Posted in Cascading Failure, Electric Grid, Energy, Exponential Growth, Exports decline to ZERO, Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Net Energy Cliff, Transportation, Transportation | Tagged , , , , | 6 Comments

Book review of Failing states, collapsing systems biophysical triggers of political violence by Nafeez Ahmed

Posted on January 31, 2017 by

[ In this post I summarize the sections of Nafeez’s book about the biophysical factors that bring nations down (i.e. climate change drought & water scarcity, declining revenues after peak oil, etc.) The Media tend to focus exclusively on economic … Continue reading →

Posted in Agriculture, Cascading Failure, Caused by Scarce Resources, Collapse of Civilizations, Collapsing, Drought, Drought, Exports decline to ZERO, Interdependencies, Limits To Growth, Middle East, Net Energy Cliff, Other Experts, Over Oil, Overpopulation, Peak Oil, Violence, War & Violence | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

How climate change will affect energy production and transportation

Posted on August 1, 2016 by

[ Climate change and extreme weather will harm oil and gas exploration and production, fuel transport, thermoelectric power generation (coal, natural gas, nuclear, geothermal, solar concentrated power), hydropower, biofuels, wind, solar PV, the electric grid, and increase energy demand from … Continue reading →

Posted in Blackouts, Cascading Failure, Climate Change, Electric Grid, Electric Grid, Energy Production, Hydropower, Ships and Barges, Water | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on How climate change will affect energy production and transportation

The electric grid, critical interdependencies, vulnerabilities: U.S. House hearing 2003

Posted on June 20, 2015 by

[ Related articles: Russian hackers suspected in attack that blacked out parts of Ukraine How the weapon works (pdf): CRASHOVERRIDE Analyzing the Threat to Electric Grid Operations The EMP Commission estimates a nationwide blackout lasting one year could kill up … Continue reading →

Posted in Blackouts, Cascading Failure, Congressional Record U.S., CyberAttacks, EMP Electromagnetic Pulse, Interdependencies | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on The electric grid, critical interdependencies, vulnerabilities: U.S. House hearing 2003

1177 B.C. The year civilization collapsed

Posted on December 8, 2014 by

[ These are my notes that are disjointed but can give you an idea of how fast our fossil-fueled civilization could collapse.  We are far more interdependent on much longer global supply chains (a wind turbine has 8,000 parts). We … Continue reading →

Posted in 2) Collapse, Cascading Failure, Collapse of Civilizations, Drought, Historically, Interdependencies, Supply Chains | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on 1177 B.C. The year civilization collapsed

On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy

Posted on March 21, 2014 by

On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy by David Koriwicz, 2011. Fleeing Vesuvius The systems on which we rely for our financial transactions, food, fuel and livelihoods are so inter-dependent that they are better regarded as … Continue reading →

Posted in Cascading Failure | Comments Off on On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy

Cascading failure + Liebig’s Law + Supply Chain Breakdown = Collapse of civilization

Posted on August 21, 2013 by

Declining supplies of high-quality, easy-to-get fossil fuels with no alternatives ready to replace them — ever — is the #1 issue. As long as we have oil, all problems can be solved, unless oil lasts long enough to deplete every … Continue reading →

Posted in 3) Fast Crash, Alternative Energy, Cascading Failure, Electricity, Infrastructure, Oil & Gas, Predictions, Supply Chains | 6 Comments