Preface. I first published this post in 2012 and have updated it today. Below I summarize a part of a 2012 article by John Howe on having one child per woman to stay under the oil depletion curve.
In the last two years, more and more experts in mainstream media are predicting collapse, which is quite startling since in the past it was obligatory to offer happy endings, because people expect that (especially in the U.S. due to TV and Science Fiction).
In the past, it was difficult to impossible to publish articles and books about collapse outside of scientific journals and university presses, since the publisher wouldn’t make money. Plus, most mainstream media is infotainment, and when serious articles are printed, forces blinders of economic and political over everything, ignoring the actual triggering biophysical factors, such as climate change, overpopulation, and drought. Also ignored are the dozens of factors in the overshoot polycrisis (biodiversity, freshwater and soil depletion). Only climate change is mentioned. And you certainly won’t often read about how the planet can only support about 400 million without our fossil fueled civilization.
There are published collapse articles and books (such as the ones I’ve written). The latest modeling of the Limits to Growth model in the business as usual scenario show collapse is right on schedule. But such articles appear in scientific journals few people read or have access to since many are behind paywalls. And many books are far too expensive. Springer sells mine for up to $160, and I have no control over that.
Very few collapse experts, whether the new mainstream media coverage or scientific papers, mention birth control and family planning, which is the only possible “solution” to reducing suffering. Instead, you will see articles extremely alarmed about the birth rate dropping to zero or less. The reason is that this would pop the Ponzi scheme of capitalism’s endless growth from every cheaper wages as more people compete for few jobs, and funding of retirement and health care.
Sadly, one child, or even zero children per female is probably too late, and to avoid coercive methods, would probably require ecology being taught in schools from first grade onward, so that people understood ecosystems, carrying capacity, and reasons to have fewer children and willingly comply for the good of everyone else. Which is impossible, because capitalism and religions depend on ever more people to drive down wages and increase tithing at church services.
In the graph below, you can see that “Howe’s slide says that even with 1 child per female we don’t stay under a depletion curve of 1% per year” — private communication from Charles A. S. Hall May 13, 2012]
Even no children per year won’t stay under the energy depletion curve. The International Energy Agence report (2025) The Implications of Oil and Gas Field Decline Rates found that without investment, 90% of oil fields would decline at almost 9% a year, and already were at 5.6%, which could be remedied by finding 10 billion barrels of oil a year. Rystad reports an average of 5.6 billion barrels per year since 2012. Add in non-geological issues such as wars, depressions reducing capital for new oil exploration and projects, black swans, etc., and it looks like oil will deplete faster than no children being born. Less food and reduced health care will increase the death rate as people more easily succumb to diseases, and we have already reached Peak Food and peak soil.
Also, a powerful video showing overpopulation all over the world, roads, dumps, uncollected garbage, buildings, cities, traffic, unsold cars, sewage, and more. Lagos, China, India, Vietnam, Pakistan, and more 1 Hour of Urban Hell on Earth https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpe_004ioNE
Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Women in ecology Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity, Index of best energyskeptic posts
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Howe J (2012) Population, oil extraction, and per-capita consumption
The only possible way to achieve one child per female (1CPF) in a modern free society is with vast publicity and peer pressure. The public must realize that extra children born today will not only compete with everyone else for resources, but their parents will be there to see them suffer in a world which will get a whole lot uglier. The planet is a finite entity so we must respect the reality of numbers. Please join this mission and get involved.
Negative population Growth: Because we expect to live to see our children, and their children and, hopefully, our great-grandchildren, the bulge (momentum) of total population grows long into the future even at a reproductive (sometimes called fertility) rate of only one child per female (1CPF). As shown, the population for a closed group of any size at 1CPF will reach peak population about 30 years after the start of the program and far beyond peak oil and the sum of all energy starting right about now (2011). The numbers are based on a typical demographic pattern of: average age of reproduction at 25 years old, and average death at 80. The starting date for the methodology used assumes an age distribution as follows:
1 to 20 years old, 40%
21 to 50 years old, 43%
51 to 80 years old, 17%
If other age distributions are assumed, the results would be slightly different, but the conclusion would be exactly the same. Because, with modern medicine and dependable food systems, we are so adept at death control, our population grows much larger for even a small birth rate. Before industrial times, the average age at death was much lower because of infant mortality and continuing through brief adulthood with plagues, famines, child-birth death, wars, and just a hard, short life. We can’t have it both ways. Modern health care is not compatible with a fertility rate higher than 1CPF, especially now that energy in the essential forms of food, fuel, and transportation will soon decline precipitously.
John Howe Howe@megalink.net
References
The included bibliography includes many titles specific to the population problem starting of course with Thomas Malthus, who was “proven wrong” for the last 200 years because of new lands, high-tech agriculture and unlimited fossil fuels. The best contemporary authors start with Al Bartlett (“The Essential Exponential”). He has given thousands of lectures on population throughout the world. Now, in his 80’s, he still has an office at the University of Colorado where he was teaching in the 50’s when I was there as a young engineering student. Another author who combines both sides of the population-resource equation is Lindsey Grant (“The Collapsing Bubble” and, “Too many People”). He is instrumental in the U.S. NGO, Negative Population Growth, Inc. (www.npg.org), which focuses directly on the subject. Another U.S. NGO is World Population Balance (www.worldpopulationbalance.org). In the U.K., several of the best books are: “The Rapid Growth of Human Populations” by William Stanton and “The Growth Illusion” by Richard Douthwaite. Similar work is spearheaded by the Optimum Population Trust (www.populationmatters.org). Many are trying to get the facts out. To date, few are listening.