Dawn of Everything Introduction

Preface.  It is likely that all world oil, both conventional and unconventional, peaked in 2018. The good news is that this means there isn’t enough carbon left to turn the world into a hothouse extinction, though for centuries the planet will be plenty miserable with rising sea levels, heat waves, and crazy weather preventing crop production.  Fossil decline also means we won’t be able to get every last fish out of the oceans, erode topsoil and turn the world into a desert, cut down all the (rain)forests and continue to pollute land, air, and water with toxic chemicals.

The carrying capacity after fossil fuels is likely what it was before them (or less given all the damage we’ve done to the planet): about 450 million people were alive in 1500 before coal launched the industrial revolution.  What lies ahead is the greatest human tragedy in history.

But after this calamity occurs, the book “Dawn of Everything” offers great hopes based on past societies of our ability to create far better ways of living and has dozens of examples of how people did so in the past.

When Earth has far fewer people, it will be possible for people to flee slavery, war, hunger, autocrats and more to start their own society or join one with more freedom. In the past politically aware people in tribes and cities designed their governance and way of life to avoid getting their food exclusively from agriculture and losing their freedom to autocratic kings.

Or why not start now on reform? Especially to prevent the descent into civil war as Walter’s “How Civil Wars Start” and Marche’s “The Next Civil War” warn.

A great deal has been discovered in the past 30 years  in anthropology and archeology, and many new ancient civilizations discovered.  You may already know about some of them from Charles Mann’s “1491” or Preston’s “The Lost city of the Monkey God”, civilizations and cities every bit as complex, populated, and sophisticated as in Europe.  This book will introduce you to even more new discoveries, to better ways of life and governance, interesting ways of living, and above all freedom.

Agriculture is seen by many as an unfortunate path we’ve taken, just read Scott’s “Against the Grain” to understand why agriculture is such a calamity.  But in “Dawn of Everything” you’ll see that there were societies which avoided year-round agriculture on purpose, or just grew some of their food in addition to hunting and gathering.  Many lived seasonally in one place for celebrations with thousands of others, and the rest of the year as hunters and gatherers, each of these two ways of living with different rules of governance.

The Dawn of Everything concludes:

“In trying to synthesize what we’ve learned over the last 30 years, we asked question such as “what happens if we accord significance to the 5,000 years in which cereal domestication did not lead to the emergence of pampered aristocracies, standing armies or debt peonage, rather than just the 5,000 years in which it did? What happens if we treat the rejection of urban life, or of slavery, in certain times and places as something just as significant as the emergence of those same phenomena in others?

We’d never have guessed, for instance, that slavery was most likely abolished multiple times in history in multiple places; and that very possibly the same is true of war. Obviously, such abolitions are rarely definitive. Still, the periods in which free or relatively free societies existed are hardly insignificant.

Much of this book has been devoted to recalibrating how we view past societies, to remind us that people did actually live in other ways, often for many centuries, even millennia. In some ways, such a perspective might seem even more tragic than our standard narrative of civilization as the inevitable fall from grace. It means we could have been living under radically different conceptions of what human society is actually about. It means that mass enslavement, genocide, prison camps, even patriarchy or regimes of wage labor never had to happen.

But on the other hand it also suggests that, even now, the possibilities for human intervention are far greater than we’re inclined to think.”

***

I would love to know what they would say about the role fossil fuels has had on our societies the past 500 years.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Graeber D, Wengrow D (2021) The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity.

There are three primordial freedoms, which for most of human history were simply assumed: the freedom to move, the freedom to disobey and the freedom to create or transform social relationships.

This is not a book about the origins of inequality. But it aims to answer many of the same questions in a different way. There is no doubt that something has gone terribly wrong with the world. A very small percentage of its population do control the fates of almost everyone else, and they are doing it in an increasingly disastrous fashion.

To give just a sense of how different the emerging picture is: it is clear now that human societies before the advent of farming were not confined to small, egalitarian bands. On the contrary, the world of hunter-gatherers as it existed before the coming of agriculture was one of bold social experiments, resembling a carnival parade of political forms, far more than it does the drab abstractions of evolutionary theory. Agriculture did not mean the inception of private property, nor did it mark an irreversible step towards inequality. In fact, many of the first farming communities were relatively free of ranks and hierarchies. And far from setting class differences in stone, a surprising number of the world’s earliest cities were organized on robustly egalitarian lines, with no need for authoritarian rulers, ambitious warrior-politicians, or even bossy administrators

Our aim in this book is to start putting some of the pieces of the puzzle together, in full awareness that nobody yet has anything like a complete set.

The term ‘inequality’ is a way of framing social problems appropriate to an age of technocratic reformers, who assume from the outset that no real vision of social transformation is even on the table. Debating inequality allows one to tinker with the numbers, argue about Gini coefficients and thresholds of dysfunction, readjust tax regimes or social welfare mechanisms, even shock the public with figures showing just how bad things have become (‘Can you imagine? The richest 1% of the world’s population own 44% of the world’s wealth!’) – but it also allows one to do all this without addressing any of the factors that people actually object to about such ‘unequal’ social arrangements: for instance, that some manage to turn their wealth into power over others.

The ultimate effect of all these stories about an original state of innocence and equality, like the use of the term ‘inequality’ itself, is to make wistful pessimism about the human condition seem like common sense: the natural result of viewing ourselves through history’s broad lens. Yes, living in a truly egalitarian society might be possible if you’re a Pygmy or a Kalahari Bushman. But if you want to create a society of true equality today, you’re going to have to figure out a way to go back to becoming tiny bands of foragers again with no significant personal property.

The ultimate question of human history, as we’ll see, is not our equal access to material resources (land, calories, means of production), much though these things are obviously important, but our equal capacity to contribute to decisions about how to live together.

We are projects of collective self-creation. What if we approached human history that way? What if we treat people, from the beginning, as imaginative, intelligent, playful creatures who deserve to be understood as such? What if, instead of telling a story about how our species fell from some idyllic state of equality, we ask how we came to be trapped in such tight conceptual shackles that we can no longer even imagine the possibility of reinventing ourselves?

As we will soon be discovering, there is simply no reason to believe that small-scale groups are especially likely to be egalitarian – or, conversely, that large ones must necessarily have kings, presidents or even bureaucracies. Statements like these are just so many prejudices dressed up as facts, or even as laws of history.

When archaeologists undertake balanced appraisals of hunter-gatherer burials from the Paleolithic, they find high frequencies of health-related disabilities – but also surprisingly high levels of care until the time of death (and beyond, since some of these funerals were remarkably lavish). If we did want to reach a general conclusion about what form human societies originally took, based on statistical frequencies of health indicators from ancient burials, we would have to reach the exact opposite conclusion to Hobbes (and Pinker): in origin, it might be claimed, our species is a nurturing and care-giving species, and there was simply no need for life to be nasty, brutish or short. We’re not suggesting we actually do this. As we’ll see, there is reason to believe that during the Paleolithic, only rather unusual individuals were buried at all. We just want to point out how easy it would be to play the same game in the other direction – easy, but frankly not too enlightening

Searching for ‘the origins of social inequality’ really is asking the wrong question. If human beings, through most of our history, have moved back and forth fluidly between different social arrangements, assembling and dismantling hierarchies on a regular basis, maybe the real question should be ‘how did we get stuck?’

How did we lose that political self-consciousness, once so typical of our species? How did we come to treat eminence and subservience not as temporary expedients, or even the pomp and circumstance of some kind of grand seasonal theatre, but as inescapable elements of the human condition? If we started out just playing games, at what point did we forget that we were playing?

We do not have to choose any more between an egalitarian or hierarchical start to the human story. Let us bid farewell to the ‘childhood of Man’ and acknowledge) that our early ancestors were not just our cognitive equals, but our intellectual peers too. Likely as not, they grappled with the paradoxes of social order and creativity just as much as we do; and understood them – at least the most reflexive among them – just as much, which also means just as little. They were perhaps more aware of some things and less aware of others. They were neither ignorant savages nor wise sons and daughters of nature. They were, as Helena Valero said of the Yanomami, just people, like us; equally perceptive, equally confused.

If there is a riddle here it’s this: why, after millennia of constructing and disassembling forms of hierarchy, did Homo sapiens – supposedly the wisest of apes – allow permanent and intractable systems of inequality to take root? Was this really a consequence of adopting agriculture? Of settling down in permanent villages and, later, towns?

Our world as it existed just before the dawn of agriculture was anything but a world of roving hunter-gatherer bands. It was marked, in many places, by sedentary villages and towns, some by then already ancient, as well as monumental sanctuaries and stockpiled wealth, much of it the work of ritual specialists, highly skilled artisans and architects.

 

 

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The latest electric tractor, the John Deere Sesam 2 / Gridcon 2

Optional cab can be added on to the Sesam 2 (aka GridCON 2)

Preface.  In both my books Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy & When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation, I write that since most “renewables” generate electricity (i.e. wind, solar, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, fusion), then clearly what most needs electrification are agricultural vehicles and equipment.

John Deere to the rescue. They’ve created an electric tractor that can do just one thing: Till soil for cultivation (Vincent 2022).  The John Deere Sesam 2 (also known as GridCON 2) is an 8.5 metric ton automated electric tractor with 1,000 kWh of energy storage and 500 kW (680 hp) of power. It comes with a 1-kilometer-long cable (max 2.5 kV/300 kW) which rolls on and off automatically. The electric power unit delivers 100 kW (136 HP) to the wheels, and 200 kW (272 HP) to power additional machinery.  It is driven to the field with a wireless remote control and then the farmer can use a computer to tell the tractor what to do and which paths to take.

The next version, the 8R, will have a power line of 3,000 meters, 8 kV, 1000 kW and be able to operate in swarms. What’s that?  See this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzl3wkkKtoA).

The 8R uses six pairs of AI stereo cameras, with help from computers, data gathering, and satellite imagery.  It is estimated to cost over $600,000 and is designed for big farms, which will provide the electricity themselves with solar, wind, and manure digesters (Estes 2022). Since there will be times when the AI is confounded and stops until told what to do, images will be sent to a call center and an app will alert the farmer who can view the images and decide what to do (Vincent 2022).

But don’t hold your breath, John Deere says that their swarm tractor technology will not be produced for several years due to hurdles such as infrastructure, farm layouts, energy provider billing models, and laws and regulations.

John Deere Autonomous battery electric tractor in action: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHnMPIOqzTE

But there are many obstacles to overcome:

  1. The batteries would be so heavy that they would compact the soil and reduce future crop production (though John Deere proposes to put caterpillar tracks on, which will reduce compaction).
  2. The batteries would need to spend so much time recharging that crops might not be planted or harvested in the narrow window of time required
  3. Battery electric tractors/harvesters are prohibitively expensive
  4. They would only last as long as natural gas did, since once NG runs out the electric grid will come down in most places most of the time, since other forms of energy storage — compressed air, battery, and hydropower don’t scale up.
  5. Mining uses 10% of world energy (TWC 2020). Electric vehicles require the mining of rare earth, platinum and other scarce metals at a time when petroleum is declining (world oil production has so far peaked in 2018). Mining is also the most polluting industry on earth, destroying ecosystems, biodiversity, and rainforests. Diesel-powered mining, transport, ore-crushing, and smelting needed for renewable energy metals potentially affects 50 million square kilometers, 37% of Earth’s land (minus Antarctica) (Kleijn et al. 2011; PEBI 2016; Hickel 2019; Sonter et al. 2020; Pitron 2020).
  6. Declining energy will make the precision needed to make microchips, computers, tractors and more for electric tractors unobtainable
  7. At a time when we need to simplify and consume less, electric tractors that only the largest industrial farms can afford to use is the wrong direction (Winchester 2018)
  8. If the electricity comes from the electric grid, is there enough power out in the country? Most power generation and heavy duty transmission lines are near cities
  9. If the power is generated at the farm with solar, wind turbines, and manure digesters, how much will that cost, how much land will that take, and how long will it take to charge the tractor battery?

Most telling of all are the farmers comments:

  1. I hope we can produce enough natural gas to generate the electricity to charge that thing!
  2. you want to go with no fuel just get a good team of horses
  3. If farmers don’t see this as a threat, they probably didn’t see massive corporate farms as a threat either.
  4. If I pay cash for it, am I allowed to put air in the tires or do I need to have it towed to the dealer?
  5. A couple of things here: who checks the seed depth when planting? How many years do the batteries last? What do replacements cost?
  6. How many hours are the batteries good for?
  7. I want to see it working steep ground, and 25% tire wear left
  8. Would’ve liked to see how fast it could go with the tillage gear working as at the speed it was going it would take all year to work up 1 big cropping farm.
  9. Wow that thing moves as fast as a snail
  10. I’d like to see how fast that electric meter is spinning when its charging
  11. Case international had a similar thing back in 2016 but it was just a tractor with no cab but it was all autonomous. I’m pretty sure it became of nothing, cuz never heard about after its debut.
  12. You can’t get parts for equipment now can you imagine how difficult it’s gonna be for parts from this thing and then on top of it really Long way to go with the technology
  13. So if it hits a rock or root that binds while plowing does it continue to tear the disks and plow up or does it stop? Is it going to tell you when you break a plow point, or a mold board?
  14. Some implements need to run at speeds of 10-13 mph for proper tillage.
  15. Bad enough that rare earths from around the planet are stolen to create such “wonderful” advancement. Why not try farming small; that might provide work and health and wellbeing for all. Shit, I forgot… that doesn’t matter so long as there’s profit to be made!
  16. I want to see it travel more the 3 mph with a 50 ft chisel. Our even move
  17. what happens when your sprayer has a blocked nozzle ??
  18. all this electric powered vehicle stuff is just awesome and absolutely needed but it will be forever before a decent, reliable, relatively cheap and environmentally safe battery(s) are invented. All the electric vehicles being built now are built with little regard to the cost of replacement battery(s) and impact on the environment before and after the batteries are used up. And there are probably dead electric vehicle batteries already piling up somewhere on the planet now.
  19. Imagine watching a rain storm roll in waiting for this slow ass thing crawl over 7 acres/hour lol
  20. Maybe it can tow a diesel generator around to charge it while it works 😉 The supposed efficiency of an electric motor simply ignores that fact that another engine somewhere was working to charge the battery so it is at least 50% inefficient right off the bat.
  21. The last thing I want is to be in a glass cab that low to the ground around flying rocks and idiot drivers while moving that from field to field
  22. Definitely a moving target for the pissed off farm employees that lost their jobs lol
  23. Why didn’t they show it turning at the end of the row?
  24. How long before one has a program glitch and it takes out half a mile of fence?
  25. Sure would love to see this thing stop and change a plow point or shear bolt after hitting a rock or clean out a sprayer nozzle when one stops up or stop and clean seed tubes and meters out when any of that happens while planting and we all know the problems never end when planting, problems that a person needs to address.
  26. If it cost 20K to replace the battery in a Tesla, what is it going to cost in this?
  27. The snow would be falling before this slow-poke tractor finished spring work. There is a reason why the don’t show the tractor driving at the normal speeds of diesel tractors… Such speeds would suck the batteries dead before it could make one round around a 100 acre field.
  28. The more complicated something is, the more maintenance it requires and more things to break.
  29. Lets say we are using an average of 200kw (270hp) for 12 hours in order to till our land, thats 200,000watts multiplied by 12 hours, that results in a total of 2,400 kilowatt hours of battery capacity in order to last the whole time, the largest battery on an electric car in production right now is 100kwh, so unless it is 24 times the capacity of that then the battery will not last, this is assuming 100% efficiency with the electric motors and no energy lost through the tyres, drivetrain or through rolling resistance, so how is this viable unless the battery is really that big, but then you get to seeding or tillage when you need to run 24 hours a day, then what?
  30. I’m glad I’m old and will die soon because people think electric vehicles are the way to save our planet, but where does electricity come from? Coal, gas, and nuclear energy. Sounds like we are trading one “evil” for another and solving absolutely nothing.
  31. When the day arrives that electricity is cheaper than fossil fuels, only then will this be a noteworthy development. Until that time, it is a waste of money.
  32. What’s the point if it still has to be controlled by a person?
  33. It only does two passes and needs to be recharged? lol. Do you have a Cat generator to charge it on the fly?
  34. Seriously, you are 25 miles from your shop working in the field. Your tractor needs charging. I guess you bring out your 50kw diesel generator out to change it all night. Am I missing something here?
  35. No emissions locally despite monstrous diesel generator at edge of field?
  36. Unless JD allows right-to-repair then forget it.
  37. Seems like a cool idea… but isn’t the whole value of a tractor is that its versatile and can be used for many applications? seems like a very limited set of applications and probably comes with a steeper price
  38. Isn’t it bad enough buying a piece of equipment and you have to have a technician come out and trouble shoot the thing with patented program just to find out what sensor out of 200 might have failed? Basically you never own the damn thing because you will always be tethered to the parent company
  39. When it breaks down starts on fire you lost that field for good. The fire will never go out. Your land will be toxic.
  40. Great idea until it wrecks itself, wrecks a fence, gets stuck in a ditch, runs onto a road, or kills someone.
  41. It won’t even plough a 50 acre field before it needs charging
  42. What if someone computer hacks this thing. Could do a lot of damage.
  43. Good lord. Why??? Do you know how much electricity it’s gonna take to charge that thing overnight or between jobs. And I guarantee you the machine costs at least $200,000.
  44. Looks extremely impractical and an environmental disaster!
  45. If you had the money it took to buy that you could retire and not farm!
  46. That’s for them 3-piece suit farmers like bill gates
  47. Electric motors are amazing for torque BUT Electric vehicles are not clean. Batteries raw materials are mined in Africa, Chile and China and that’s just the beginning. Say ten years down the line the battery will of at least dropped 25% in capacity or worse. That’s a new battery and costs as much as a new unit. This is far from a green pursuit.
  48. Looks real heavy and has no brain to see a waterway or a wet spot so will go ahead and get stuck any way and really bury itself in and keep going until it is out of power. Would only be used on large farms where no hills and can go for a long time. Would be worthless if you had to charge it for more than 15 minutes during harvest or planting season. That’s about how long it takes to fuel and reload seed now. Would hate to shut down for hours just to recharge. Especially when the rain is coming in the next day and you have to finish before it.
  49. electric cars, trucks, and tractors have the same or more of a foot print then gas or diesel
  50. pulling an 80 foot drill @ 3000acres you would need about 12 electric tractors — it doesn’t make financial sense
  51. You thought tangled wrapped up hydraulic hoses is bad, Wait until you have high electricity cables wrapped up…basically a scaled up garden tiller with an extension cord you have to drag around

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

References

Estes AC (2022) We’re one step closer to self-farming farms John Deere will start selling autonomous tractors later this year. Vox.

Hickel J (2019) The limits of clean energy. If the world isn’t careful, renewable energy could become as destructive as fossil fuels. Foreign policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/06/the-path-to-clean-energy-will-be-very-dirty-climate-change-renewables/

Kleijn R, Van der Voet E, Kramer GJ et al (2011) Metal requirements of low-carbon power generation. Energy 36:5640–5648

PEBI (2016) World’s worst pollution problems. The toxins beneath our feet. Pure Earth Blacksmith Institute. https://www.worstpolluted.org/2016-report.html

Pitron G (2020) The Rare Metals War: The Dark Side of Clean Energy and Digital Technologies. Scribe US.

Sonter LJ, Dade MC, Watson JEM et al (2020) Renewable energy production will exacerbate min[1]ing threats to biodiversity. Nat Commun 11:4174

TWC (2020) Energy use from mining. The World Counts. https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/planet-earth/mining/energy-use-in-the-mining-industry/story.

Vincent J (2022) John Deere’s self-driving tractor lets farmers leave the cab — and the field. Theverge.com

Winchester S (2018) The Perfectionists: How Precision Engineers Created the Modern World. HarperCollins

 

 

Posted in An Index of Best Energyskeptic Posts, Electric & Hydrogen trucks impossible, Electric Grid, Electric Trucks, Elements: Rare Earth, Peak Food | 1 Comment

Neighborhood councils to cope with energy decline

I’m reading “The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity” which is one of the best books I’ve read in years, and a very hopeful one – this 700 page book is full of evidence that agriculture, capitalism, slavery, greed, and the unfair distribution of wealth we have today globally are not inevitable. There is no inevitable evolution of tribe to chiefdom to monarchy to state.  Better societies once existed and might in the post carbon future. Plus the latest on dozens of new archeological sites found in the past few decades of forgotten civilizations.

French Jesuits and other explorers recorded the ideas of natives before they were destroyed by the onslaught of settlers.  Their insights, political sophistication, and understanding of their cultures were written up into best sellers in Europe, and Rousseau and other philosophers stole their ideas without attribution that gave rise to our modern ideas about freedom, egalitarian societies and more.

Today with 8 billion people, the planet is full, more than full, it isn’t possible to travel so easily as it was before fossil fueled civilizations and find a better tribe or start your own experiment.

And to my surprise, travel was possible in the past. In America, sign language allowed natives to travel widely even if they didn’t speak the tongue of the villages they encountered, and it vastly expanded the ability to trade goods over long distances. The same was true in Australia, see Bruce Chatwin’s amazing book “The Songlines“.

People throughout time and places have always been conscious political actors.  Another aspect of this book that gives me hope for the post fossil fuel world is that many societies deliberately rejected agriculture as their only sustenance, perhaps growing food part of the time seasonally, but then moving to hunting and gathering grounds another time of the year, often with huge celebrations of thousands of people.  Burning Man is not new…

People treasured freedom above all. The freedom to move somewhere else, the freedom to not obey commands.  In some of the quotes of native americans, they were horrified by European culture. For example:

Mi’kmaq natives in Nova Scotia, who had lived for some time next to a French fort said they ‘considered themselves better than the French: “For,” they say, “you are always fighting and quarrelling among yourselves; we live peaceably. You are envious and are all the time slandering each other; you are thieves and deceivers; you are covetous, and are neither generous nor kind; while as for us, if we have a morsel of bread we share it with our neighbor.”  And consequently the Mi’kmaq insisted they were as a result, richer than the French. Yes the French had more material possessions, but they had other, greater assets: ease, comfort and time.

And like the Mi’kmaq, the Wendat were particularly offended by the French lack of generosity to one another: ‘They reciprocate hospitality and give such assistance to one another that the necessities of all are provided for without there being any indigent beggar in their towns and villages; and they considered it a very bad thing when they heard it said that there were in France a great many of these needy beggars, and thought that this was for lack of charity in us, and blamed us for it severely.’

The Wendat were also unimpressed by French habits of conversation. One Frenchman was surprised and impressed by the Wendat eloquence and powers of reasoned argument, skills honed by near-daily public discussions of communal affairs; while the Wendat often remarked on the way Frenchmen seemed to be constantly scrambling over each other and cutting each other off in conversation, employing weak arguments, and overall not showing themselves to be particularly bright. People who tried to grab the stage, denying others the means to present their arguments, were acting in much the same way as those who grabbed the material means of subsistence and refused to share it; it is hard to avoid the impression that Americans saw the French as existing in a kind of Hobbesian state of ‘war of all against all’.

This book is too huge to do a review. In this post I want to cover just a small part of it, of how people deliberately avoided kings and authoritarian leaders by governing with councils.

So no need for kings. But it’s complicated. Many of the large towns that have been recently found weren’t occupied year-round.  The past was full of  festivals, often spiritual in nature, where thousands of people gathered and then dispersed.  But some of these cultures, some of the time, did have rulers during the festival time, but even so, people still had plenty of freedom.

Before moving on to how councils might be one of the ways to cope with energy decline, consider rulers whose scope of power was absolute — but also very limited. And how councils could try to contain such a leader if it happens.

This book gives me great hope that after energy decline, we can reinvent societies to have more freedom, give women the political and economic power they once had, and not return entirely to agriculture and consequent loss of freedom and often slavery and brutal leaders as Scott writes about in Against the Grain (the authors point out that Scott never says this is inevitable in his book).

Kings who could only kill

[The authors posit there are three aspects to state power: The control the knowledge, the right to kill, and a bureaucracy to enforce commands.  Here they give one of many examples where a king has the right to use violence with impunity but doesn’t control knowledge or have the bureaucracy to exert their will over the territory or competitors to deal with]

French accounts of the Natchez of southern Louisiana in the 18th century seem to describe this sort of arrangement.  The Natchez are the only undisputed case of divine kingship north of the Rio Grande. Their ruler enjoyed an absolute power of command that would have satisfied a Sapa Inca or Egyptian pharaoh; but they had a minimal bureaucracy, and nothing like a competitive political field. As far as we know it has never occurred to anyone to refer to this arrangement as a ‘state’.

A French Jesuit, Father Maturin Le Petit, gave an account of the Natchez in the early 18th century. He was especially struck by their religious practices which revolved around a settlement called the Great Village, with two great earthen platforms separated by a plaza. On one platform was a temple; on the other a kind of palace, the house of a ruler called the Great Sun, large enough to contain up to 4,000 people, about the size of the entire Natchez population at the time.

The temple, in which an eternal fire burned, was dedicated to the founder of the royal dynasty. The current ruler, together with his brother ‘the Tattooed Serpent’ and eldest sister ‘the White Woman’, were treated with something that seemed very much like worship. Anyone who came into their presence was expected to bow and wail, and to retreat backwards. No one, not even the king’s wives, was allowed to share a meal with him; only the most privileged could even see him eat. What this meant was that members of the royal family lived out their lives largely within the confines of the Great Village, rarely venturing beyond except for major rituals or times of war.

French observers were particularly struck by the arbitrary executions of Natchez subjects, the property confiscations and the way in which, at royal funerals, court retainers would – often, apparently, quite willingly – offer themselves up to be strangled to accompany the Great Sun and his closest family members in death. Those sacrificed on such occasions consisted largely of people who were, up to that point, immediately responsible for the king’s care and his physical needs, including his wives who were always commoners.  Many went to their deaths voluntarily, even joyfully. One wife remarked how she dreamed of finally being able to share a meal with her husband in another world.

A paradoxical outcome was that, for most of the year, the Great Village was largely depopulated. As noted by Father Pierre de Charlevoix, ‘The reason which I heard for this is that the Savages, from whom the Great Chief has the Right to take all they have, get as far away from him as they can; and therefore, many Villages of this Nation have been formed at some Distance.’

Away from the Great Village, ordinary Natchez appear to have led very different lives, often showing blissful disregard for the wishes of their ostensible rulers. They conducted their own independent commercial and military ventures, and sometimes flatly refused royal commands conveyed by the Great Sun’s emissaries or relatives. Archaeological surveys of the Natchez Bluffs region bear this out, showing that the eighteenth-century ‘kingdom’ in fact comprised semi-autonomous districts, including many settlements that were both larger and wealthier in trade goods than the Great Village.

The Great Sun was said to be descended from a child of the Sun who came to earth bearing a universal code of laws, among the most prominent of which were proscriptions against theft and murder. Yet the Great Sun himself ostentatiously violated those laws on a regular basis.

The problem with this sort of power from the sovereign’s vantage point, is that it tends to be intensely personal. It is almost impossible to delegate. The king’s sovereignty extends about as far as the king himself can walk, reach, see or be carried. Within that circle it is absolute. Outside it, it attenuates rapidly. As a result, in the absence of an administrative system (and the Natchez king had only a handful of assistants), claims to labor, tribute or obedience could, if considered odious, be simply ignored.

Even if one does develop an administrative apparatus (as they of course did), there is the additional problem of how to get the administrators actually to do what they’re told – and, by the same token, how to get anyone to tell you if they aren’t.

French saw the Natchez court as a sort of hyper-concentrated version of Versailles. On the one hand, the Great Sun’s power in his immediate presence was even more absolute (Louis could not actually snap his fingers and order someone executed on the spot); while on the other, his ability to extend that power was even more restricted (Louis did, after all, have an administration at his disposal, though a fairly limited one compared to modern nation states). Natchez sovereignty was, effectively, bottled up.

The Natchez case illustrates a more general principle whereby the containment of kings becomes one of the keys to their ritual power. Sovereignty always represents itself as a symbolic break with the moral order; this is why kings so often commit some kind of outrage to establish themselves, massacring their brothers, marrying their sisters, desecrating the bones of their ancestors or, in some documented cases, literally standing outside their palace and gunning down random passers-by. Yet that very act establishes the king as potential lawmaker and high tribunal, in much the same way that ‘High Gods’ are so often represented as both throwing random bolts of lightning, and standing in judgment over the moral acts of human beings.

For most of history, this was the internal dynamic of sovereignty. Rulers would try to establish the arbitrary nature of their power; their subjects, insofar as they were not simply avoiding the kings entirely, would try to surround the godlike personages of those rulers with an endless maze of ritual restrictions, so elaborate that the rulers ended up, effectively, imprisoned in their palaces.

So far, then, we have seen how each of the three principles we began with – violence, knowledge and charisma – could, in first-order regimes, become the basis for political structures which, in some ways, resemble what we think of as a state, but in others clearly don’t. None could in any sense be described as ‘egalitarian’ societies – they were all organized around a very clearly demarcated elite – but at the same time, it’s not at all clear how far the existence of such elites restricted the basic freedoms we described in earlier chapters.

There is little reason to believe, for instance, that such regimes did much to impair freedom of movement: Natchez subjects seemed to have faced little opposition if they chose simply to move away from the proximity of the Great Sun, which they generally did. Neither do we find any clear sense of the giving or taking of orders, except in the sovereign’s immediate (and decidedly limited) ambit.

For some readers, the idea of a dead monarch sent off to the afterlife amid the corpses of his retainers might evoke images of early pharaohs. Some of Egypt’s earliest known kings, those of the First Dynasty around 3000 BC, were indeed buried in this way. But not just Egypt: In almost every part of the world where monarchies established themselves, from the early dynastic city-state of Ur in Mesopotamia to the Kerma polity in Nubia to Shang China. There are also credible literary descriptions from Korea, Tibet, Japan and the Russian steppes. Something similar seems to have occurred as well in the Moche and Wari societies of South America, and the Mississippian city of Cahokia.

We might do well to think a bit more about these mass killings, because most archaeologists now treat them as one of the more reliable indications that a process of ‘state formation’ was indeed under way. They follow a surprisingly consistent pattern. Almost invariably, they mark the first few generations of the founding of a new empire or kingdom, often being imitated by rivals in other elite households; then the practice gradually fades away (though sometimes surviving in very attenuated versions, as in sati or widow-suicide among largely kshatriya – warrior-caste – families in much of South Asia). In the initial moment, the practice of ritual killing around a royal burial tends to be spectacular: almost as if the death of a ruler meant a brief moment when sovereignty broke free of its ritual fetters, triggering a kind of political supernova that annihilates everything in its path, including some of the highest and mightiest individuals in the kingdom.

This sovereign power in tiny kingdoms and miniature courts always existed with a core of blood relatives and a motley collection of henchmen, wives, servants and assorted hangers-on. Some of these courts appear to have been quite magnificent, leaving behind large tombs and the bodies of sacrificed retainers. The most spectacular, at Hierakonpolis, includes not only a male dwarf (they seem to have become a fixture of courtly society very early on), but a significant number of teenage girls, and what seem to be the remains of a private zoo: a menagerie of exotic animals including two baboons and an African elephant. These kings give every sign of making grandiose, absolute, cosmological claims; but little sign of maintaining administrative or military control over their respective territories.

In summary, the Natchez Sun, as the monarch was known, inhabited a village in which he appeared to wield unlimited power. His every movement was greeted by elaborate rituals of deference, bowing and scraping; he could order arbitrary executions, help himself to any of his subjects’ possessions, do pretty much anything he liked. Still, this power was strictly limited by his own physical presence, which in turn was largely confined to the royal village itself.

Most Natchez did not live in the royal village, indeed, most tended to avoid the place, for obvious reasons.  Outside it, royal representatives were not treated seriously. If subjects weren’t inclined to obey these representatives’ orders, they simply laughed at them. So while the court of the Natchez Sun was not pure empty theatre – those executed by the Great Sun were most definitely dead – neither was it the court of Suleiman the Magnificent or Aurangzeb.

There are no signs of Kings, violence, walls built for defense and protection in dozens of new towns and cities that have been discovered the past few decades.  Greece was not the first democratic state, it appears that civilizations were ruled by local councils.  Those examples would take hundreds of pages to elaborate on, so let me cut to the chase, what it might mean for our future.

I’m also reading Bill Bryson’s outstanding 2018 book “The Body: A guide for occupants”. In the pandemic chapter he talks about how scientists worry the about bird flu, since these can kill up to 60% of people who catch it. We were lucky with covid-19, the death rate wasn’t high enough to prevent most essential workers from showing up. But in a bird flu, or other pandemic with even a 10% death rate, society would grind to a halt.  No one would go to work. Stores would run out of food. Fires burn out of control.

No doubt inspired by both Graeber and Bryson’s books, I dreamt the bird flu had arrived, and to cope,  the progressive neighborhood group I’m part of got together and went door to door to enlist people to grow food, especially potatoes. If a household was unwilling then we asked if they’d let others grow food in their yard in exchange for getting half of what was produced, and found people willing to do so.  All within the neighborhood to keep trust high.  We also asked for any extra potatoes or seeds to start growing them immediately to share with the neighborhood.

Ideally we’d have already started these councils to cope with overshoot, and be doing many projects, such as planting fruit and nut trees, installing water storage tanks that also insulate homes, and much more, explored at greater depth in Transition Towns, permaculture, and organizations such as resilience and postvcarbon.org.  Local cities, the state, and federal government would work with neighborhood councils to supply seeds, water tanks, food, and more.  Today cities have task forces to make recommendations, perhaps these would become councils or existing departments given more power to give citizens more control in governance and hold chaos and violence at bay.

And then this morning, I read about dreams in “The Dawn Of Everything”.  Here’s how one Native American tribe saw them:

In 1649 Father Ragueneau wrote that the Wyandot people of Lake Ontario believed that secret desires are communicated in dreams in an indirect, symbolic language, difficult to understand, so they spent a great deal of time trying to decipher the meaning of one another’s dreams and consulting specialists. This was long before Freud wrote about dreams in 1899, seen by many as one of the founding events of 20th century thought.

‘Dream-guessing’ was often carried out by groups, and sometimes in the winter a town devoted itself to organizing collective feasts and dramas to make some important man or woman’s dreams come true.

Most traditions are not documented. Many other societies were entirely destroyed, or reduced to traumatized remnants, long before any such records could be written down. One can only wonder what other intellectual traditions might have been forever lost.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

 

Posted in Government, Life Before Oil, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Can we eat enough fried food for biodiesel to keep trucks running?

Fatberg from London sewer

If the U.S. can’t make enough biodiesel from plants, then the question becomes: Can we step up our fast-food game? Can we eat more French fries?  Biodiesel is already made from used cooking oil (11.5% of all U.S. biodiesel), animal and other fats (5%).

We could also scrap other products made from vegetable oils and animal fats and shift them to biodiesel. Products like soap, paint, varnish, vinyl plastics, lubricants, livestock and pet food, clothes, rubber, detergents, candles, rust inhibitor, shampoo, caulking, disinfectants, epoxies, electrical insulation, metal casting, plasticizers, and more (Murphy 2004). Who knew we are swimming in vegetable oils and animal fats!

Using restaurant waste grease helps stop the problem of it being illegally dumped into the sewage system, which can result in severe blockages. Once restaurant grease clogs a sewer, sewage may back up into the facility, shutting it down until the sewage pipe is cleaned. In London, sewers were clogged with a record-breaking fatberg that weighed 140 tons. Picture that!

Currently hotels and restaurants generate three billion gallons of waste cooking oil, though most ends up in landfills or down the drain rather than biodiesel (EPA 2017). That is a gob of grease, but a far cry from the 46 billion gallons of petroleum diesel consumed.

We will just have to belly up and eat a lot more deep-fried food. At last, we’ll have a good excuse to eat fried chicken and French fries with no guilt! If anyone can eat more fast food, it’s Americans. Already 72% of adults are overweight or obese (CDC 2016). We’re really good at eating. Spin eating fried food as a patriotic duty and it will be the most popular government edict ever.

Believe it or not, there are statistics on our personal grease consumption. About four gallons of used cooking oil and trap grease are generated per person per year (NREL 1998). Thank you for that important information NREL! With 329 million people, that’s about 1.3 billion gallons. Americans are going to have to eat at least 15 times more fast food to nudge biodiesel production to half of oil diesel consumption. Though obesity may shorten American lifespans, it won’t be in vain. After death, excessive human fat can be rendered to make even more biodiesel to allow us to continue to our nonnegotiable way of life. Plus, liposuction clinics could harvest fat periodically. Americans could eat as much as they liked all the time, and we’d forever end the pain of dieting (Squatriglia 2007).

It’s too bad truck drivers running on empty can’t just pull up to a fast food joint and say fill ‘er up while eating fried food to keep the virtuous biodiesel cycle going. Sadly, unrefined vegetable oil, grease, or animal fats would harm their engine. Restaurant grease has to be trucked to a biodiesel refinery, pretreated to remove dirt, meat scraps, breading, and water, phospholipids and plant matter degummed. Making biodiesel from cooking oil and trap grease is especially tricky because of their free fatty acids, which tend to react with catalysts to produce soap instead of biodiesel.  The more soap made, the more soap and methanol that need to be removed and discarded, with some of the methanol and glycerol disposed of as hazardous waste.  And to think this glob all began with French fries!

Conclusion. Seriously, Americans aren’t going to be able to eat enough fast food. Seriously, we are already too heavy. In an energy scarce world, it will be far better and healthier to live close to work and use muscle power, walking and bicycling, to get there. Seriously. Not that there will be any choice…

 

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

References

CDC (2016) Obesity and Overweight Adults. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.                 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm.

EPA (2017) Learn about biodiesel. Environmental Protection Agency.                 https://19january2017snapshot.epa.gov/www3/region9/waste/biodiesel/questions.html#whyuse.

Murphy DJ (2004) Plant Lipids: Biology, Utilisation and Manipulation. Wiley-Blackwell.

NREL (1998) Urban waste grease resource Assessment. U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Squatriglia C (2007) Around the world in a boat fueled by human fat. Wired.                 https://www.wired.com/2007/12/around-the-worl/.

 

Posted in Agriculture, Biodiesel | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Can we eat enough fried food for biodiesel to keep trucks running?

Why it is hard to replace diesel with biodiesel

Biodiesel is the great hope, our main hope, the only renewable fuel of all the many options, and the closest to the diesel essential for rail, trucks, and ships to do the actual work of civilization.

The U.S. produces over a billion gallons a year of biodiesel in the U.S. Our biodiesel is made from 95% vegetable oils (68% soybean, 16% corn, 11.4% canola) and 5% animal fats and grease (EIA 2019a).  About one tenth of biodiesel comes from used cooking oil.

No other biofuel can substitute for diesel fuel besides biodiesel, for reasons explained here and a dozen chapters in Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy. Not ethanol from corn, cellulose, or kelp. Nor biodiesel from algae, finite liquefied coal (CTL), hydrogen, ammonia, power-to-gas, methane hydrates, natural gas, or oil shale.  And while I’m at it, nor can transportation be electrified with batteries or overhead wires.

Biodiesel hits the ball out of the park. It is renewable. Trucks can run on it. It is commercial.

Scale is an issue though.  Globally, 27.95 million barrels of petroleum diesel are consumed per day, but only 655,000 barrels of biodiesel (BP 2020). Biodiesel production would need to be scaled up 43-fold after oil decline.

And there’s not enough land, too much soil erosion and aquifer depletion, climate change, drought, and more limiting soybean and other oilseed production.

The U.S. burns 46 billion gallons of petroleum diesel a year. It makes just 1.8 billion gallons of biodiesel annually, 25 times less than needed (EIA 2018, EIA 2019).

It bears repeating: 68% of U.S. biodiesel comes from soybeans. Even if all 87.2 million acres of soybeans, grown on a quarter of America’s cropland, were used to make biodiesel, just 5.7 billion gallons could be produced. But that isn’t likely, since soybeans are also in demand for livestock feed, cooking oil, baked goods, soy milk, tofu, industrial lubricants and other goods (NCSPA 2019).

Corn can yield 18 gallons of biodiesel per acre. Soybeans can yield 65 gallons of biodiesel per acre.  What accounts for this difference?  Not crop yield. Corn yields 177 bushels per acre and soy just 52 bushels. Rather, it is fat content. Corn is 4% fat whereas soy is 20% fat. You need fat to produce biodiesel.  Despite its low-fat content (four percent) and because of its high yield, corn manages to contribute 16% of annual U.S. biodiesel production in 2019.

For biodiesel, peanuts would be better than either corn or soybeans. Peanuts are half oil and can yield 123 gallons per acre. But they grow only in the most humid areas of seven Southeastern states. Nor do other oil seed crops scale up.

Besides ramping up production, distribution will need to be scaled up too. There are 168,000 gas stations but only 300 where 20% biodiesel (B20) or above is available (AFDC 2020).

Biodiesel requires a lot of water. The water footprint of biodiesel from seed to harvest to delivered fuel is vast, not good at a time of increasing drought, population growth, and aquifer depletion. Soy biodiesel requires 13,676 liters (3613 gallons) of water per liter of biodiesel produced and corn ethanol 2,570 liters (725 gallons) (Gerbens-Leenes 2009). Petroleum gasoline has a much smaller footprint, on average just 4.5 gallons of water per gallon of gasoline produced Wu et al. (2018).

Water is a problem both coming and going. Plants end up as 90-95% water. Removing this water to make fuels takes a lot of energy, but has to be done to avoid corroding and clogging diesel engines (Racor 2013).

Bad chemistry.  Making fuels from plants is challenging because their chemistry differs from crude oil, which is nearly all hydrocarbon chains of 82-87% carbon and 12-15% hydrogen.

Plants have hydrocarbons, but are also chockablock with oxygen, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, zinc, sulfur, chlorine, boron, iron, copper, manganese and more.  Good for vitamin pills, bad for trucks, these elements need to be removed to make biodiesel, adding to cost and energy.

Even then, plant oils are so different from petroleum diesel oil that it is hard to match the specifications of the diesel fuel standard. This standard, ASTM D 975, specifies energy density, oxidative and biological stability, lubricity, cold-weather performance, elastomer compatibility, corrosivity, emissions (regulated and unregulated), viscosity, cetane number, distillation curve, ignition quality, flash point, low-temperature heat release, metal, ash, and sulfur content, water tolerance, specific heat, latent heat, toxicity, and ash and sulfur content. It seems nearly miraculous that crude oil can be refined to conform to all these specifications. And it’s a lot to ask of a soybean.

Unlike standard diesel, biodiesel is biodegradable, and thus needs to be used within 45 to 90 days.

Why such extensive specifications for diesel? Fuel outside the specifications can harm diesel engines by gelling up in cold weather or acting as a solvent, releasing rust and other contaminants that plug filters and fuel injectors, and more (Bacha et al. 2007, Schmidt 2007).

That’s why many heavy-duty engine manufacturers have warranties that don’t allow biodiesel, though B5 (5% biodiesel / 95% petroleum diesel) is often fine. Some warranties prohibit B20 to B100.

Distribution is a problem too. Biodiesel can’t travel in oil or gas pipelines, because, like ethanol, biodiesel is a good solvent, and able to pick up water and impurities that can harm engines (APEC 2011).  It is five to 20 times more costly to move biodiesel by rail or truck than were it possible to use pipelines (Curley 2008).

A barrel of crude oil is only 10-15% diesel in the U.S.  It will take decades to build thousands of biodiesel factories, shift more cropland to oilseed crops, modify truck engines to burn B100, and build pipelines that can handle biodiesel.

If we could convert more crude oil to diesel, we could buy time for a transition from diesel to biodiesel. But only about 10 to 15 percent of a barrel of crude oil can be refined into diesel. A barrel of crude oil makes dozens of other useful products. As crude oil is heated at the refinery, fractions split off. The first to go are lighter hydrocarbons for plastics, then propane, gasoline, kerosene for jets, diesel, heavy oil, and asphalt.

The EROI of biodiesel is low, roughly 1.3 to 1.9 (Pimentel 2005, Hill et al. 2006), far short of the 10 to 14:1 needed to keep civilization as we know it continuing (Lambert et al. 2014).

Conclusion. Biodiesel is significantly more expensive to make than petroleum diesel, so like ethanol, its existence is almost entirely due to federal policies such as the RFS biomass-based diesel and biodiesel production tax credits, excise tax credits, small biodiesel producer credits, and the RFS mandate that requires specific amounts of biodiesel in the overall fuel pool (Schnepf 2013).

Farmers can’t grow enough oilseeds to replace petroleum diesel. But some of it is made from animal fats and grease. That brings us to the next question: Can we eat enough French fries to keep trucks running?

 

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

References

AFDC (2020) Biodiesel Fueling Station Locations (B20 and above). U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy.

APEC (2011) Biofuel transportation and distribution. Options for APEC economies. Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.

Bacha J, Freel J, Gibbs A, et al (2007) Diesel Fuels Technical Review. Chevron Corporation.  https://www.chevron.com/-/media/chevron/operations/documents/diesel-fuel-tech-review.pdf.

BP (2020) Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. British Petroleum.

Curley M (2008) Can ethanol be transported in a multi-product pipeline? Pipeline and Gas Journal 235: 34.

EIA (2018) Table 3.7c Monthly Energy Review. Petroleum consumption: transportation and electric power sectors. U.S. Energy Information Administration.

EIA (2019a) Table 3. U.S. Inputs to biodiesel production.  U.S. Energy Information Administration.

EIA (2019b) Table 10.4 Biodiesel and other renewable fuels overview. U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Gerbens-Leenes W, Hoekstra AY, van der Meer TH (2009) The water footprint of bioenergy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 10219-10223.

Hill J, Nelson E, Tilman D, et al (2006) Environmental, economic, and energetic costs and benefits of biodiesel and ethanol biofuels. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 103:11206-11210.

Lambert JG, Hall CAS, Balogh S, et al (2014) Energy, EROI and quality of life. Energy Policy 64:153–167.

NCSPA. 2019. Uses of soybeans. N.C. Soybean Producers Association.                 https://ncsoy.org/media-resources/uses-of-soybeans/.

Pimentel D, Patzek TW (2005) Ethanol production using corn, switchgrass, and wood; biodiesel production using soybean and sunflower. Natural Resources Research 14, 65–76.

Racor. 2013. Water, a diesel engine’s worst enemy. Racornews.                 https://www.racornews.com/single-post/2013/12/05/Water-A-Diesel-Engines-Worst-Enemy.

Schmidt CW (2007) Biodiesel: cultivating alternative fuels. Environ. Health Perspect. 115: 86-91.

Schnepf R (2013) Agriculture-based biofuels: overview and emerging issues. CRS Report R41282. Congressional Research Service.

Wu M, Xu H (2018) Consumptive water Use in the production of ethanol and petroleum gasoline – 2018 Update. Argonne National Laboratory: Energy Systems Division. doi:10.2172/1490723

Posted in Agriculture, Biodiesel, Oil, Peak Biofuels, Peak Food, Transportation, Water | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Corn for ethanol & soy for biodiesel tremendously destructive

The Green Gold Rush to make biodiesel has begun in earnest in California. It would not be profitable without subsidies from LCFS credits, federal RIN D5 credits, and  Blenders Tax Credits at $3.32 a gallon, which is enough to cover production costs, according to Van der Wal, biofuel advisor at Stratas Advisors in Singapore.

He said “It’s a mind-boggling amount of money, you will make a lot of money as long as all these subsidies come in.” Without this money, biodiesel is an energy sink, with very low EROI.

Biodiesel competitors already in the market have already locked up much of the tallow, cooking oil, and other resources Marathon and Phillips hope to use (Bloomberg 2021). And California doesn’t grow many soybeans because of water shortages, so importing soy will increase CO2 via transportation emissions here and the CO2 from tractors and trucks in other countries or the U.S.

Corn and soybeans are very destructive to the environment, eroding more topsoil, causing more pollution, global warming, acidification, eutrophication of water, water treatment costs, fish kills, and biodiversity loss than most other crops (Powers 2005, Troeh and Thompson 2005, Zattara and Aizen2019).

Food versus fuel. Over 40% of the corn crop becomes fuel, not food at a time when 43 million Americans need help with food stamps (USDA 2020) and the high unemployment rate from Covid-19 could drive the need for food aid up to over 54 million people (Lee 2020).

Too many pesticides.  Corn and soy are especially destructive because they need a lot of pesticides. Of all pesticide use on crops, corn’s share is 39.5% and soybeans 22% (Mclaughlin and Walsh 1998, Padgitt et al. 2000, Pimentel 2003, Patzek 2004, Fernandez-Cornejo et al. 2014). I don’t want to say they have a drinking problem, but shall we say they have a “dependency problem.”   All these pesticides kill bees, wild bees, and other important pollinators. The neonic pesticides mentioned earlier that are 48 times more toxic to insect life than other chemicals are mainly used on corn and soybeans (DiBartolomeis et al. 2019).

Corn and soy already take up half of U.S. cropland. Corn and soy are grown on over half of America’s 324 million acres of cropland (USDA 2018).  Over half!

Corn can yield 500 gallons of ethanol per acre (NRC 2014, USDA 2019). That sounds like a a lot, but corn fuel is small potatoes. Despite a doubling of corn acreage due to the 2007 federal renewable fuel standard, the 40% of corn grown to make ethanol is a measly 10% of our U.S. gasoline mix. In the case of diesel, 99% of what we use is petroleum diesel, and 1% percent is biodiesel. So even if all 324 million acres of American farmland were planted in corn and soybeans, they’d barely make a dent in transportation fuels while driving food and feed prices higher.

Corn and soy cause the most soil erosion. Corn and soy are 50 or more times more prone to soil erosion than sod crops like wheat, barley, rye, and oats. Why is that? It’s because they are planted in rows much wider than other crops, up to 30 inches wide, a major highway for wind and water to barrel along and take topsoil with them (Al-Kaisi 2000, Sullivan 2004). This is exacerbated by heavy harvesting equipment that compacts and pulverizes soil into a fine powder that is more easily eroded and blown or washed away (RCN 2011, Mathews 2014).

Nevertheless, a corn ethanol goldrush is on. Farmers converted 10 million acres of grassland, shrubland, wetland, and forestland into cropland between 2008 and 2016, with 2.9 million acres for corn and 2.6 million acres for soy (Lark et al. 2018).

Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands are protected because they retain water, support pest predators, sequester carbon, and sustain wildlife. CRP land is highly-erodible if farmed. In fact, the government pays farmers not to grow crops on this land. When ethanol subsidies or corn prices are high, CRP land is often converted to corn crops. In 2007, 36.7 million acres were enrolled in the CRP program, today it’s just 21.9 million acres, a loss of nearly 15 million acres.

Using CRP and undeveloped land to grow corn erases the carbon benefits of using ethanol over gasoline (Uri 2000, Tomson 2007, Searchinger et al. 2008, Fargione et al. 2008, Piñeiro et al. 2009).  After the harvest, most farmers leave their soil bare, except for a minority who plant cover crops or leave corn stover on the ground. This naked soil lies unprotected from wind and heavy rain that grab soil, sediment, pesticides, and fertilizer, running away with them.

A lot of soil is lost – 20 to 40 pounds per gallon of ethanol according to Jerald L. Schnoor, professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Iowa (NRC 2014).

Since 16 billion gallons of ethanol are produced per year, that’s 160 to 320 million tons of topsoil lost. An acre of topsoil 6-7 inches deep weighs 1,000 tons, so if soil were lost in just one area, as happened in the massive Midwestern floods of 2019 (Philpott 2019, Ippolito and Al-Kaisi 2019), 250 to 500 square miles of topsoil would be strip mined to the subsoil bones below.  But such disastrous floods are uncommon. Usually a fraction of an inch is lost across the 127,800 square miles planted in corn, such a small amount we don’t notice. But year by year, erosion adds up, subtracting from the land. As detailed in Chapter 16, topsoil is eroding all over the world, and affects up to half of America’s agricultural soil, a peril to future food and the environment (Pimentel 2005).

Corn and soybeans are water hogs (sorry pigs). It takes some 3,600 gallons of water to produce enough soybeans to make a quarter gallon of biodiesel, and 680 gallons of water per liter of ethanol (Gerbens-Leenes et al. 2009). You knew that, right? Afterwards, for every gallon of ethanol produced, 12 gallons of noxious sewage effluent are released that need to be treated (Schulz 2007).

Corn ethanol and soy biodiesel are not good options for the arid states of the West. Nor for California. To make just 20% of the 16 billion gallons of ethanol produced a year in the U.S. in California would require over 8 trillion gallons out of the 8.4 trillion gallons of irrigation water now used to grow over 400 kinds of crops. Soybeans would need more water than California has available (Maupin et al. 2014). As it is, field crops like corn, soy, and cotton are draining California’s aquifers more than water intensive alfalfa, truck crops, and fruit and nut crops (Levy et al. 2020). For generations now in California, there have been fights over water between agriculture, cities, the environment, and fisheries (Fingerman et al. 2008). Thank you kindly, but please don’t plant your biofuel plantations in my home state of California!

Corn’s dirty secret – that corn ethanol is not a public good – is well known. Many papers have shown that it takes about one calorie of fossil fuel to make a calorie of ethanol (e.g. Pimentel 2003, Murphy et al. 2010).  This is known even in the halls of the U.S. Congress, which has created a pork barrel for corn and soy farmers.  Both the House and Senate have tried many times to repeal or reduce the amount of ethanol called for in the Renewable Fuel Standard. Yet the federal mandate that U.S. transportation fuels have a minimum volume of biofuel remains. In 2020, the mandate is 11.56% biofuels by volume.  Here is a list of just a few failed congressional reform bills: HR 424 (2011), S 1584 (2015), HR703 (2015), HR 119 (2017), HR 1314 (2017), HR 104 (2019), HR 3427 (2019).  (Source: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11353)

More fertilizer, more dead zones. Corn also uses more nitrogen fertilizer than most crops (Padgitt et al. 2000, Pimentel 2003, NRC 2003), and significant amounts of phosphorus. Corn needs a lot of fertilizer because corn plants are quite adept at absorbing nitrogen and storing it in the corn grain.  But unfortunately, much of the nitrogen fertilizer applied doesn’t go into the grain but instead washes away into lakes, rivers and the ocean (NRC 2014).

Fertilizer runoff is also the main culprit causing dead zones such as the 6,000 to 7,000 square miles of water at the mouth of the Mississippi River in the Gulf of Mexico.  Dead zones develop when overloads of nutrients – nitrogen and phosphorus – allow algae to go on a nutrient binge, proliferating to the point they suck the oxygen out of the water. Any fish, shrimp, and crabs in this zone die, especially bottom dwelling fish, shrimp, clams, mussels, and oysters.  Those that live can accumulate algal toxins that concentrate in shellfish, herring, mackerel, and sardines near the bottom of the food chain making them potentially lethal.

Industrial farming is great for jellyfish. Not being harmed, and in fact ballooning in numbers, are jelly fish. They are on the way to dominating the ocean and displacing fish. Despite the fact that they have no backbones! Jellyfish can handle hypoxia (low oxygen levels), love warmer climate-changed oceans, and proliferate thanks to trawling, overfishing, fertilizer and sewage runoff.  We’re tipping the ocean ecosystem to favor jellyfish, possibly permanently. And they’re awfully hard to kill. Chemical repellents, biocides, nets, electric shocks, and introducing species that eat jellyfish won’t do it.  If you shoot, stab, slash, or chop off part of a jellyfish, it can regenerate lost body parts within two days.  Not even the past five major extinction events that killed up to 96% of life on earth drove jellyfish extinct (Gershwin 2013). I couldn’t find a jellyfish cookbook. You could create the first!

Somebody send the Bat Signal!  Healthy topsoil and fresh water are essential for our future national security, indispensable if we are to grow biomass for food, infrastructure, and energy. Yet the U.S. exports 112,000 barrels per day of fuel ethanol causing erosion, water depletion, pollution, and eutrophication of waterways in our own country (EIA 2019).

If only Batman could save us from these polluting, erosion-prone, aquifer draining supervillain crops that take up half our crop land. Better yet, don’t send Batman, send bats to eat crop pests and lower pesticide use. Please write your representatives to repeal the renewable fuel standard and drive a wooden stake through the vampire ethanol industry. We are just trading petroleum for an equal amount of alcohol, with no net effect except losing a huge amount of our most precious resource.  Soil!

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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References

Al-Kaisi M (2000) Soil erosion: An agricultural production challenge. Integrated Crop Management. Iowa State University. https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/encyclopedia/soil-erosion-agricultural-production-challenge.

Bloomberg (2021) Phillips 66 is turning a California oil refinery into a biofuel plant. Los Angeles Times.

DiBartolomeis M, Kegley S, Mineau P, et al (2019) An assessment of acute insecticide toxicity loading (AITL) of chemical pesticides used on agricultural land in the United States. PLOS ONE

EIA (2019) The united states exported a record volume of ethanol in 2018 for a second consecutive year. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=39212.

Fargione J, Hill J, Tilman D, et al (2008) Land clearing and the biofuel carbon debt. Science 319: 1235–8.

Fernandez-Cornejo J, Nehring R, Osteen C, et al (2014) Pesticide use in U.S. agriculture: 21 selected crops 1960-United States Department of Agriculture.

Fingerman K, Kammen D, O’Hare M. (2008) Integrating water sustainability into the low carbon fuel standard. University of California, Berkeley, CA

Gerbens-Leenes W, Hoekstra AY, van der Meer TH (2009) The water footprint of bioenergy. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106: 10219-10223.

Gershwin L (2013) Stung! On Jellyfish Blooms and the Future of the Ocean. University of Chicago Press.

Ippolito J, Al-Kaisi M (2019) The dirt on soil loss from the Midwest floods. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/the-dirt-on-soil-loss-from-the-midwest-floods-114423.

Lark T, Bougie M, Spawn S, et al (2018) Cropland expansion in the United States, 2008-2016. Gibbs Land Use and Environment Lab. http://www.gibbs-lab.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Land-conversion-research-brief_11.2.18.pdf Accessed 9 Nov 2022

Lee L (2020) 54 million Americans are going hungry. Here’s how you can make sure you eat. CNN https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/us/how-to-get-food-assistance-hunger-pandemic-iyw-trnd/index.html.

Levy MC, Neely WR, Borsa AA, et al (2020) Fine-scale spatiotemporal variation in subsidence across California’s San Joaquin Valley. Environmental Research Letters 15. explained by groundwater demand. Environmental Research Letters.

Mathews T (2014) Row crops are susceptible to soil erosion. Farm Horizons.                 http://www.herald-journal.com/farmhorizons/2014-farm/soil-erosion.html.

Maupin MA, Kenny JF, Hutson SS, et al (2014) Estimated use of water in the United States in 2010. U.S. Geological survey circular 1405.

Mclaughlin S, Walsh ME (1998) Evaluating environmental consequences of producing herbaceous crops for bioenergy. Biomass & Bioenergy 14:317-324.

Murphy, D.J., C.A.S. Hall, and Bobby Powers. 2011. New Perspectives on the Energy Return on Investment of Corn Based Ethanol. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 13(1) pp 179-202.     < http://netenergy.theoildrum.com/node/6760>

NRC (2003) Frontiers in Agricultural Research: Food, Health, Environment, and Communities. National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.17226/10585

NRC (2014) The nexus of biofuels, climate change, and human health: Workshop summary. Institute of Medicine. National Research Council, National Academies Press.

Padgitt M, Newton D, Renata P, et al (2000) Production practices for major crops in U.S. Agriculture, 1990-97. Resource Economics Division, Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Patzek TW (2004) Thermodynamics of the corn-ethanol biofuel cycle. Critical Reviews in Plant Sciences 23: 519-

Philpott T (2019) The hidden catastrophe of the Midwest’s floods. Mother Jones.                 https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/03/the-hidden-catastrophe-of-the-midwests-floods/.

Pimentel D (2003) Ethanol fuels: Energy balance, economics and environmental impacts are negative. Natural Resources Research 12: 127-134.

Pimentel D (2006) Soil erosion: A food and environmental threat. Environment, Development, and Sustainability 8: 119-137.

Piñeiro G, Jobbágy EG, Baker J, et al (2009) Set-asides can be better climate investment than corn ethanol. Ecological Applications 19: 277–82.

Powers SE (2005) Quantifying cradle-to-farm gate life-cycle impacts associated with fertilizer used for corn, soybean, and stover production. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy.

Schulz WG (2007) The costs of biofuels. Chemical and Engineering news 85:12-16.

RCN (2011) Heavy agricultural machinery can damage the soil, Nordic researchers find. Research Council of Norway, Sciencedaily. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/05/110505083737.htm.

Searchinger T, Heimlich R, Houghton RA, et al (2008) Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse  gases through emissions from land-use change. Science 319: 1238–40.

Sullivan P (2004) Sustainable Soil management. Soil Systems Guide. ATTRA. https://soilandhealth.org/wp-content/uploads/01aglibrary/010117attrasoilmanual/010117attra.html.

Tomson B (2007) For Ethanol, U.S. may boost corn acreage. Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB117086485800701031.

Troeh F, Thompson LM (2005) Soils and Soil Fertility, 6th edition. Wiley-Blackwell.

Uri ND (2000) Global climate change and the effect of conservation practices in US agriculture. Environmental Geology 40: 41-52

USDA (2018) USDA reports soybean, corn acreage down. United States Department of Agriculture.  Acres: Corn: 81.8 million soybeans 89.6 million

USDA (2019) Soybean production up in 2018, USDA reports. U.S. Department of Agriculture.

USDA (2020) SNAP data tables. Latest Available Month April 2020 State Level Participation & Benefits by person. United States Department of Agriculture. https://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/supplemental-nutrition-assistance-program-snap.

Zattara EE, Aizen MA (2019) Worldwide occurrence records reflect a global decline in bee species richness. bioRxiv, Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. https://doi.org/10.1101/869784

 

Posted in Biodiesel, Peak Food, Pesticides, Soil, Water | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Corn for ethanol & soy for biodiesel tremendously destructive

Energy certificates as currency when oil shocks strike?

Since world oil probably peaked in 2018 (EIA 2021), clearly there will be a time when there are oil shortages. The price may be high at first, but that often brings on a financial crash (Hamilton 2013), unemployment rises as business shut down, and with less oil demand the price goes down, too low to entice oil companies to explore, drill, and produce more oil.  And that’s even more true now than it was in the past — the remaining oil is poor quality, very expensive, and difficult to get — miles under the ocean floor or in the arctic where permafrost and icebergs prevent drilling whether on land or sea.

I am sure that politicians and other government experts at all levels are aware of peak oil.  You can see that clearly in the congressional hearings, from the military, and the Hirsch (2005) report on Peak oil for the Department of energy (see all posts at category Experts, topic Government here or by subtopics). For example, see my post on Oil ShockWave. I summarized an executive crisis simulation that illustrated the strategic dangers of oil dependence by confronting a mock U.S. cabinet with highly geopolitical crises that trigger sharp increases in oil prices. They had to grapple with the economic and strategic consequences of this ‘oil shock’ and formulate a response plan for the nation. Spoiler alert: they didn’t come up with a plan, and worse yet, and the military argued that they should get all the oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.  To do what? Start a war in the Middle East and waste our last drops of oil?

I’ve had a hard time finding plans to cope with an energy crisis. I suspect they’re top secret within the military and Homeland Security. But recently I discovered that the governors of most states have energy crisis plans, though not all states do, and they vary in what the governor can do and is expected to do in order to cope. I’m working on the California plan now, but it is terribly out of date, from 2014, and the plan is to anticipate shortages and scramble to buy supplies to avert an energy crisis. If the grid goes down, utilities are expected to have plans for mutual aide from out-of-state utilities. There’s some hope renewables can provide more power, but even in 2014 California was aware renewables would destabilize the grid and make additional natural gas plants essential (CEC 2014).

Of course I should have figured out actions would take place at the state level, with the governor in charge. S(he) would then ask the Federal government for help, call in the national guard, already have a plan to get more energy, where vulnerable populations were, and contacts at the county and city level to do the actual work of opening shelters and providing food.

But these state plans don’t mention rationing, because they aren’t planning for the Long Emergency. There is no planning for oil decline visible to the public, probably because the plans are too grim, perhaps involving preventing a Grapes of Wrath mass movement of millions to other states and cities. And dealing with the Four Horsemen who are likely to appear when oil shortages are beyond coping with.

An oil shock is coming. I make the case for in “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the future of transportation”, that it is diesel shortages that are the most critical to resolve, since diesel trucks and engines plant, harvest, and deliver food, haul garbage, mine, log, and the rest of the hard work that needs being done.

I’ve yet to find rationing plans for energy or food or anything else at the state level.

But I think I know why. In 1991 our house burned down in the Oakland firestorm, with 3500 homes lost and it was the most expensive fire in U.S. history. It was obvious that with climate change there’d be a lot more wildfires and drought, or other disasters such as earthquakes, ArkStorm, and tsunamis.

So I called the State of California emergency services and asked if they had plans, or already were stockpiling food, tents, blankets and other goods to cope with future disasters. I don’t remember who I talked to, but she explained that the state can not hoard and dispense goods in anticipation such as  food, blankets, tents and more. That would be too expensive and politically risky, various interest groups would claim they weren’t getting enough goods compared to others.  Too costly to maintain. Another bureaucracy. And what do you do with all the food and other perishables that weren’t used every year? Plus she saw help coming from the federal level, from FEMA and other monetary aid to buy and deliver goods, perhaps with the national guard.

Local governments are already barely able to run cities, they’re so complex and there’s never enough money or time to do what needs to be done, they count a great deal as it is on private charities, churches, and volunteers to support the poor, clean up parks and other services the city should be providing.

Cox (2013) has the best ideas on how to ration, but in Republican states, rationing will be by wealth, so if you can afford gasoline great, otherwise stay home and starve to death. No nanny state for you!

But here’s an old idea that might come in handy from the Technocrats back in the 1930s for blue states. Technocracy proposed a government where scientific and technical experts made the appropriate rules under the auspices of elected officials based on science, not politics.  Sounds good to me!  At a time when nearly all of our existential problems require scientific literacy, nearly all politicians are lawyers or businessmen, not scientists and staff who aren’t scientists either to advise them. M King Hubbert was a part of this and early on warned of limits to growth, since the planet was finite so growth couldn’t increase forever, after all, there was only so much land, so much coal, and so much iron. At some point growth had to hit limits.

A leader within the Technocracy movement was Howard Scott, who said things like “A criminal is a person with predatory instincts without sufficient capital to form a corporation.”  He thought that as we harnessed energy more and more efficiently to do more and more work, that people might only need to work 16 hours a week. Everyone would have plenty of goods and free time.

Money could be abandoned and replaced with energy certificates. Everything would be paid for based on how much energy it took to make it, with nearly all of that energy coming from fossil fuels or hydroelectric power.  And everyone would get the same allotment of energy certificates as long as they worked 16 hours a week.  These couldn’t be traded and expire in a year so no one accumulated wealth.  If purchases were kept track of, government run industries would have a good idea of what they needed to produce in the future and how much energy that would take.  Everyone would be equal and well taken care of.

Even Franklin Roosevelt sounded like a technocrat at times, once declaring that “our last frontier has long since been reached, and there is practically no more free land.” The nation had reached a mature stage, in which it was time for a “reappraisal of values,” turning from an emphasis on growth to the “soberer, less dramatic business of administering resources and plants already in hand,” and “of distributing wealth and products more equitably, of adapting existing economic organizations to the service of the people (Inman 2016).

Nobel prize winner Frederick Soddy (1877–1956) was one of the earliest to understand why economics should be based on energy. He wrote that financial debts grew exponentially at compound interest but the real economy was based on exhaustible stocks of fossil fuels, whose energy could not be used again. He had revolutionary proposals for reining in debt to create a more sound economic system based on energy that is now part of the field of biophysical and ecological economics (Zencey 2009, Fix 2020).

In an energy crisis, if ecological economist steady-state economy plans could be implemented in a hurry during the emergency to stabilize society, this would be the time to do so, since capitalism is about to go away because it’s based on endless growth on a finite planet, and limits to reserves of oil, coal, phosphorous and many other minerals are already here or will be within decades. I suspect that current financial system and capitalism have too strong a grip for an alternative system anticipating declining economic growth to be adopted unless there’s a crisis. And even then authoritarianism is more likely (Friedemann 2021).

In the next oil shortage, rather than money, state governments should issue energy certificates to all  citizens equally to prevent social unrest.  Perhaps only for gasoline initially, with diesel carefully allocated to agriculture and other essential needs using a different system.  But meat and other products embodying a great deal of energy — and water for that matter — ought to be given rough values so that energy certificates could be extended to food.

Above all, the reason that there are no plans can be found in the book “Raven Rock: The Story of the U.S. Governments Secret Plan to Save Itself–While the Rest of Us Die. (see my book reviews here: Raven Rock parts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6).

This book exposes the government’s plans to carry on government and democracy after a nuclear war. In the initial plans that began during the Truman administration, civilians were to be saved, but as time went on it became clear this couldn’t be done. Only top government and military officials would be offered a space in bunkers buried under mountains. This is still the plan.

So if the government wasn’t planning on helping the American people survive for two weeks after a nuclear war, then Homeland Security and FEMA surely don’t have any plans to help us cope or survive the permanent emergency ahead of energy and resource decline, which they certainly know about as shown in my posts at energyskeptic under menu item experts, categories government and military.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

References

Cox S (2013) Any Way You Slice It: The Past, Present, and Future of Rationing. The New Press.

EIA (2021) International. Data. Petroleum and other liquids. U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/annual-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=A&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1609459200000

Fix B (2020) Frederick Soddy’s Debt Dynamics. Economics from the top down.

Friedemann A (2021) Can democracy survive peak oil? energyskeptic.com  https://energyskeptic.com/2021/deja-vu-lessons-learned-from-the-peak-oil-crises-of-1973-1979/

Inman M (2016) The Oracle of Oil.  A Maverick Geologists Quest for a Sustainable Future. W W Norton.

Zencey E (2009) Mr. Soddy’s Ecological Economy. New York Times.

 

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Coal Ash is a major toxic waste

Coal ash is what remains after coal is burned, and has numerous elements dangerous to human health, including known carcinogens such as arsenic, hexavalent chromium, and radium. A nuclear power plant generating as much energy as a coal plant generates 100 times less nuclear waste.

The USA produces 110 million tons of coal ash every year, the largest waste stream after household trash (HRW 2019).

Over 3 billion tons of it now occupy more than 1,400 sites across the United States. According to the industry’s own data, over 90% of these sites contaminate groundwater with almost two dozen heavy and radioactive metals—including arsenic, lead, mercury, selenium, and radium—at levels exceeding the EPA’s health standards. A 2014 EPA study revealed that living next to a coal ash waste site increases one’s risk of getting cancer from drinking groundwater laced with arsenic.

Most of it ends up in ponds, landfills, and abandoned mines with no safeguards since they’re barely regulated by states and not subject to federal hazardous waste regulations.  It can get into groundwater, and destroy land and homes if it is released.  At least 67 of them have damaged drinking water across 23 states.

The Environmental Protection Agency says that you’re better off smoking a pack of cigarettes a day than living near a coal ash storage pond (Hitt 2014). The toxins give you a 2000 times greater chance of cancer if you live within a mile of unlined coal ash ponds, neurological damage, respiratory illness, and developmental problems.

The toxins work their way up the food chain in plants and animals.

There were once 4 billion tons of coal ash, and still 3 billion tons remain today. There would be a lot more if 1.5 billion tons hadn’t been put to other uses, such as making cement. A new possibility is being researched of extractions of rare earth metals from the very best dumps of coal ash. Other uses, such as structural fill on landscapes, home foundations, under public parks, golf courses, and roads has proven to be a way to spread the hazardous waste to even more areas and contaminate drinking water.  In 2015 under Obama the EPA finalized regulation of coal ash, which Trump tried to roll back in 2018 (Gaffney 2021)

How bad are coal wastes your your state?  Check out the Earth Justice coal ash contamination site here.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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References 

Clayton M (2009) Coal-ash waste poses risk across the nation. Hundreds of landfills and slurry ponds – like the one that failed in Tennessee – are dotted across the US, endangering communities and water supplies. The Christian Science Monitor.

Gaffney A (2021) Can Harvesting Rare Earth Elements Solve the Coal Ash Crisis? Over 3 billion tons of coal ash occupy more than 1,400 sites across the US. Sierra Club.

Hitt MA (2014) Dangerous waters: America’s coal ash crisis. Sierra Club.

HRW (2019) US: Rolling Back Coal Ash Rules Threatens Health. EPA Proposal Effectively Subsidizes Coal Plants. Human Rights Watch.

Hvistendahl, Mara. 13 Dec 2007. Coal Ash Is More Radioactive than Nuclear Waste. By burning away all the pesky carbon and other impurities, coal power plants produce heaps of radiation. Scientific American.

Kaufman R (2011) Seeking a Safer Future for Electricity’s Coal Ash Waste. National Geographic.

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Limits to Growth: Natural gas fertilizer that feeds 4 billion of us

Preface.  In chapter 4 of my book “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy“, I explain how it came to be that fertilizer is made out of natural gas, using the energy of natural gas, and why it allows at least 4 billion of us to be alive. Yet natural gas is finite. And now there are shortages due to high prices.  In the U.S. Congress voted to allow natural gas to be exported several years ago, partly to help Europeans not become dependent on Russian gas and fall into their sphere of influence.  But now it’s costing farmers all over the world so much many will go out of business. In the U.S., especially small farmers who don’t get subsidies like the huge farms do.

High Natural gas prices in the news:

2022 Rising price of fertilizer is forcing NC farmers out of the business. North Carolina farmers say the cost of fertilizer has tripled over the past two years and is threatening to drive smaller farms out of the business entirely. The spike in cost has left family farms looking for ways to stay afloat while still producing enough food. As one of the most essential tools in agriculture, fertilizer makes up 15% of all farming costs in the U.S., according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. But since September 2020, the cost of fertilizer nationwide has spiked up to 300% as demand for its primary ingredients like ammonia and liquid nitrogen has soared. One farmer said that “Now everybody’s going to chicken litter, and we can’t even find the chicken litter now to do for our farm.”

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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2021 This Chemical Is in Short Supply, and the Whole World Feels It. New York Times.

People and industries of all kinds are feeling the shocks. In India, a lack of urea has made farmers fear for their livelihoods; fears of fertilizer shortages have led crowds of desperate farmers to gather outside government distribution centers and clash with the police. In South Korea, it meant truck drivers couldn’t start their engines.

One big reason for surging fertilizer prices is surging prices of coal and natural gas. China and Russia, two of the biggest producers, have restricted exports to ensure supplies for their own farmers. In China’s case, an energy crunch led some areas to ration electricity, which forced fertilizer factories to slash production. Hurricane Ida drove several large chemical plants to suspend operations when it tore through the U.S. Gulf Coast in August. Western sanctions on Belarus have hit that nation’s production of potash, the key ingredient in another fertilizer. Port delays and high freight fees — plant food is bulky stuff — have added to costs.

Urea is an important type of agricultural fertilizer, so rising prices could ultimately mean higher costs at dinner tables around the world. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s index of food prices is already at its highest level since 2011. The coronavirus pandemic has caused huge numbers of people to face hunger, and increased food prices could cause even more to have trouble meeting basic dietary needs.

As prices of urea solution soared as much as tenfold last month, some South Korean truck drivers said they had forfeited jobs that would consume more urea, such as ones involving long distances or big hills. On a construction site, if just one heavy-duty vehicle runs out of urea, the entire project might be paralyzed.

“If my truck stops, my family’s livelihood, my children’s tuition, everything stops,” said Kim Jung-suk, 47, who drives a dump truck in Seoul.

2021. Poorest face food crisis amid fertiliser shortage. BBC. 

Svein Tore Holsether, chief executive of Yara International, said higher [natyral] gas prices were pushing up fertiliser costs and affecting food prices worldwide.

Fertiliser requires large amounts of gas in its production.

Mr Holsether said Yara had been forced to cut some production due to higher gas prices, which had led to shortages.

The chief executive said developing countries would be hit hardest by the shortages, with crop yields declining and food prices rising.

“It’s really scary, we are facing a food crisis and vulnerable people are being hit very hard,” he told the BBC’s Today program. “It’s impacting food prices all over the world and it hits the wallets of many people. But for some people, especially in the developing world, this is not only a question about the wallet, but it’s a question of life or death.”

Less fertiliser, Mr Holsether said, meant farmers in developing countries would not be able to plant as efficiently, leading to smaller crops.

Farmers apply fertilizers to boost yields of crops such as corn, canola and wheat. The process of creating ammonia, which is present in many fertilisers, currently relies on hydropower or natural gas.

‘Volatile’

The increase in gas prices in recent months has been triggered by several factors which have increased demand, including the unlocking of economies during the pandemic and reduced wind or rain for renewable power.

This has led to a sharp rise in the cost of producing fertiliser, with the price of ammonia – the product Yara International produces more than anyone in the world – up 255% on last year.

Mr Holsether said the situation was “very volatile” and called for support and funding for the World Food Programme “to avoid famine at massive scale. It says a lot about the impact that fertiliser can have.

Posted in Life After Fossil Fuels, Limits To Growth, Natural Gas, Peak Food, Starvation | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Far out #7: Ammonia power

Preface. This optimistic article is honest enough to say that the new process of not emitting NOx when using ammonia for energy is a long way from commercial viability, and has myriad hurdles.  This is not the most promising way to make ammonia, the point of this post is to analyze why this article gives false hope, as nearly all breakthrough articles do, so that you can learn to critically think about the dozens that appear every day in the news on your own. I sure don’t have the time, there are millions of these articles if you do an internet search on “breakthrough” and your favorite alternative energy.

Ammonia is a natural gas based fertilizer that keeps 4 billion of us alive, made out of natural gas and also energy from natural gas to create the very high temperatures and pressures required.

So you’re going to use ammonia for transportation instead of feeding people, with 3 billion more on the way by 2050? Really? With the war between Russia & Ukraine taking vast amounts of food and fertilizer off world markets? And how can ayine think we can scale ammonia production up enough for transportation for vehicles and fuel cells that haven’t been invented yet to replace trillions of dollars of existing vehicles. Or build the hundreds of thousands of miles of distribution lines and service stations to dispense highly toxic ammonia?

On top of that, this new process requires the extremely rare element ruthenium, which is both highly toxic and carcinogenic, and one of the rarest elements on earth. Only about half of it is recycled, with just 5,000 tonnes of potential reserves as a byproduct of mining for other metals.  What little Ruthenium exists is already spoken for by other industries such as the electronics industry for chip resistors and electrical contacts, to coat the anodes of electrochemical cells for chlorine production, as a catalyst in  ammonia and acetic acid production, in solar cells, etc.

Only 30-35 tons are mined per year, requiring a great deal of energy.  With world peak oil production likely in 2018, oil will become scarce and expensive, making Ruthenium more expensive as well.  And everything else on earth for that matter, where do you think inflation comes from? Since fossil fuels make everything possible, from transportation to manufacturing to 500,000 products made out of fossil fuels, when their price goes up, so does everything else.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Zaremba H (2021) Could The World Run On Nitrogen? oilprice.com

Scientific paper: Nature Chemistry Spontaneous N2 formation by a diruthenium complex enables electrocatalytic and aerobic oxidation of ammonia

The researchers found that “the addition of ammonia to a metal catalyst containing the platinum-like element ruthenium spontaneously produced nitrogen, which means that no added energy was required,” according to reporting from SciTechDaily.

While ammonia has been used as a fuel source for the better part of a century, its combustion creates a nitrogen oxide gas which is highly toxic. Scientists have pursued the idea of ammonia as a clean energy source, however, since it’s abundant, easy to store, burns similarly to propane, and emits no greenhouse gases. Plus, it’s efficient: an ammonia fuel cell has10 times the energy density of a lithium-ion battery.

The method discovered by the research team at the University of Wisconsin can be used to create clean energy, releasing nothing but protons and nitrogen gas as byproducts, neither of which pose a threat to the atmosphere. What’s more, the metal used in the process can be recycled and reused, making the process efficient, green, and low-waste. If we can scale up this technology for widespread use in the future, it could be a hugely promising advance in the fight against climate change and the global push for the decarbonization of our largely coal- and oil-fueled economies.

“The world currently runs on a carbon fuel economy,” Christian Wallen, one of the authors of the Nature Chemistry paper was quoted by SciTechDaily. “It’s not a great economy because we burn hydrocarbons, which release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. We don’t have a way to close the loop for a true carbon cycle, where we could transform carbon dioxide back into a useful fuel.”

A nitrogen economy could be the answer for a cleaner, greener, and more liveable world in the future. Emerging technologies and outside-the-box thinking are a hugely important part of the struggle to decarbonize. While proven technologies need to be prioritized in the clean energy transition since there is absolutely no time to waste, humans are going to have to get creative in order to meet the massive scale of the challenge ahead of us, and to do so in time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. To this end, the brand new U.S. Infrastructure Bill has provisioned a brand new branch of the Department of Energy called the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, which will direct $21.5 billion at the oversight of brand new pilot projects that push the envelope on new and innovative clean energy technologies.

References

Kobayashi H et al (2019) Science and technology of ammonia combustion. Proceedings of the Combustion Institute.

Posted in Elements: Platinum Group, Far Out, Hydrogen, Natural Gas, Recycle | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment