Category Archives: 3) Fast Crash

The case for a fast, rather than a slow one. Most societies crashed in 20 years or less. There has never been or will be again a crash like ours, where the world of 7 billion people became utterly dependent on a non-renewable source of energy — fossil fuels.

J. David Hughes: Oil Sands peak 2018 @ 3.6 Mb/d + photos 1984 & 2011

[This old post may turn out to be true if oil prices stay low, given how expensive it is to mine oil sands, transport them, refine them, and deliver to customers — some estimate an overall EROI of 3:1] OIL … Continue reading

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Global oil risks in the early 21st century, Energy Policy 2011

[This is a large excerpt from an excellent 18-page paper I think predicts how the future will unfold as well as a good overview of our predicament. Alice Friedemann] Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André. 2011. Global oil risks in … Continue reading

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Peak soil, Peak Phosphate, Peak Fertilizer means Peak Food

Amundson, R., et al. May 7, 2015. Soil and human security in the 21st century. Science 348. A group of leading soil scientists has summarized the precarious state of the world’s soil resources and the possible ramifications for human security … Continue reading

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Peak oil in 2015 for Russia & America means peak world

Peak Russia + Peak USA means Peak World by Ron Patterson on March 5, 2015 Since around 2005 many countries have increased their oil production but more have decreased. But the combined production of the United States and Russia have … Continue reading

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A third of Nuclear Reactors are going to die of old age in the next 10-20 years

70% of reactors are over 25 years old, 23% are over 35 years old, so within 10 to 20 years about a third will have to be decommissioned, far more than the 63 under construction.  Some are bound to fail … Continue reading

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Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production

Excerpts from: Hook, M., Hirsch, R., Aleklett, K. June 2009. Giant oil field decline rates and their influence on world oil production. Energy Policy 37(6): 2262-2272 Future trends in giant oil field decline rates             … Continue reading

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Richard Heinberg Only less (population) will Do

Only Less Will Do by Richard Heinberg,  Post Carbon Institute    Mar 16, 2015 [portions of this article were cut and rearranged] Almost nobody likes to hear about the role of scale in our global environmental crisis. That’s because if … Continue reading

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Charles A. S. Hall Conventional oil peak was 2005

The global production of conventional oil began to decline in 2005, and has followed a path over the last 11 years very close to our scenarios assuming low estimates of extractable ultimate resource (1.9 Gbbl) John L. Hallock Jr., Wei … Continue reading

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Wind turbines hit limits to growth before 50% wind power penetration

Material requirements of 50% wind power in the USA hit limits to growth Also see: Davidsson, S., et al. 2014. Growth curves and sustained commissioning modelling of renewable energy Investigating resource constraints for wind energy. Energy Policy. Fizaine, F., et … Continue reading

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Wind’s dirty secret: it goes on vacation in the summer and year-round in the South East

  Figure 1. Summer wind across the USA is barely to not economically viable Class 3 (light blue), or not at all economically viable Class 2 (orange) and class 1 (blank) (NREL), with very limited darker blue (class 4) and … Continue reading

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