Preface. Below are excerpts from U.S. House & Senate hearings where various speakers made the case that due to tight fracked gas & oil the United States had 100 or 200 or even 250 years of Energy Independence ahead.  For a long time the export of oil and gas had been prohibited, but Hurray for Fracking and Energy Independence. Congress then allowed the export of Liquefied Natural Gas, also seen as a bonus of keeping Europe and Asia away from Russian oil and gas dependency and consequently their influence.

I’m pretty sure Congress knows better from the 2007 Peak Oil Theory hearing, the testimony of military experts in many sessions, the 2006 Energy Independence Senate hearing, and top secret Homeland Security sessions.  Forger geologist, now senator Hickenlooper led the first 2005 Association for the Society of Peak Oil conference in Denver when he was mayor there.

Also, there were many speakers against energy exports in these hearings, but weren’t listened to, saying such things as how it would lead to higher prices for Americans, that it was probably temporary since the EIA predicted peak oil in 2019 (it happened in October 2018, pretty good estimate Energy Information Administration), and so on, but Congress went ahead and allowed exports.  I have not read all the congressional reports by any means, but the ones I have read and summarized are in the category Experts/GOVERNMENT/Congressional Record U.S./Energy Independence here if you’d like to see who warned that exporting oil and gas was a bad idea.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Financial Sense, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

* * *

House 113-38. May 7, 2013. Exports and the changing global energy landscape. U.S. House of Representatives.

How long with energy independence last?

• Mike Halleck. We have been told 200 to 250 years, some say as many as 500 years.
• J Bennett Johnston. DOE says we have 100 years of Natural Gas
• Joe Barton, TX: We think another 500 years (Barnett shale)
• Michael R. Turner. The U.S. EIA says we have a nearly 100-year supply of natural gas
• Scott Lincicome. U.S. EIA predicts oil and natural gas production to stay at relatively high levels for decades. The IEA says the U.S. could be a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and “almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035”, and the world’s largest oil producer by 2020 leading to North America’s emergence as a net oil exporter by 2035.

Increased U.S. natural gas exports = higher U.S. prices: Who knew? By Kurt Cobb

2013-2-12. Natural gas resources S. Hrg. 113-1. United States Senate.

Jack Gerard, President and CEO of American Petroleum Institute: “Six/seven years ago someone estimated [reserves were] about 20 to 30 years. Most recently the EIA has estimated that it’s at least 90–95 years. Other independent analysis—ICF, etcetera have estimated it’s 150 years, and there’s some who’ve believe it’s 200–300 years worth of supply at current levels of consumption. It’s evolving quickly because of breakthrough technology as we define more resources. It’s going up dramatically quickly. What happened today, and I can’t overstate this, what is happening today is unprecedented in the history of our country in terms of our opportunity to become energy secure and self-sufficient. Just think back 5 or 6 years ago nobody was having this conversation. Today we’re the world’s No. 1 gas producer. It’s now estimated through this advancement in technology, we’ll be the world’s No. 1 oil producer by 2020, 7 short years and surpass Saudi Arabia.”

ANDREW N. LIVERIS, CHAIRMAN & CEO, DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY

We are in year four or five of a 100 year energy advantage.

Dow is investing about $4 billion in new U.S. facilities. To a great extent, continuing optimism for U.S. manufacturing is founded on the prospect of an adequate, reliable and reasonably priced supply of natural gas. Over 100 new projects have been announced so far, representing approximately $95 billion in new investments.

Companies in the manufacturing, transportation and utility sectors are making investment decisions based on today’s competitive prices and the outlook for affordable and stable natural gas into the future. These decisions will play out over the next ten to twenty years. Our assessments indicate that demand for U.S. natural gas may increase by approximately 60 percent above current levels by 2035. An important corollary question is whether supply can possibly keep up with this new demand.

RON WYDEN, U.S. SENATOR FROM OREGON:  For the first time in decades, our Nation will be able to rely on its own U.S. energy resources, especially new oil and gas development from shale instead of being dependent on imports from the Middle East and other parts of the world that haven’t always had our best interests at heart. This is a major change for American energy policy.

MARY L. LANDRIEU, U.S. SENATOR FROM LOUISIANA. The wealth of natural gas is extraordinary, with estimates indicating America currently has 317 trillion cubic feet of proven, accessible reserves, and a further 2,000 tcf in total resource base estimates. This is enough to fulfill our current demand, a little over 24 bcf per day, for over 100 years.

LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska senator: When we look at our energy sources just a few years ago, we were talking about the scarcity of our resources. We have now moved from a discussion about scarcity to one of abundance. In addition, our allies overseas are now looking at the United States, they want our natural gas, and we’ve got enough resources to help make that happen.

JOHN W. HICKENLOOPER, Governor of Colorado: Energy independence used to be a catch phrase that people would throw around, but I think we are legitimately on the threshold of achieving it for the first time in my lifetime… what we’ve seen in the last decade is truly transformational.

LEE FULLER, VP OF Government relations, Independent Petroleum Association of America. Projections suggest that identified resources could provide enough natural gas to meet America’s needs based on current demand for as much as 100 years.

Senate 113-355.  January 30, 2014. Crude oil exports. U.S. Senate.

HAROLD HAMM, CHAIRMAN & CEO CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

• America now counts their natural gas supplies in centuries.
• Experts agree we’ll be energy independent in terms of crude oil within this decade.
• It was in complete contrast to the popular belief that the United States would be running out of oil and gas at the turn of the 21st century.

Senate 113-355. January 30, 2014. Crude oil exports. U.S. Senate. 67 pages.

HAROLD HAMM, CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., OKLAHOMA CITY, OK.

In October 2011 DEPA put a stake in the ground and predicted American energy independence by 2020. America’s independent oil and gas producers have unlocked the technology and resources that made this a reality, not the majors. As a result we can today mark the recent 40th anniversary of the OPEC oil embargo by ending their oil scarcity in America and along with it ending the last short sighted regulation passed during that same period.

• America now counts their natural gas supplies in centuries.
• Experts agree we’ll be energy independent in terms of crude oil within this decade. This phenomenon was brought about by a group of independent American producers and missed by the general consensus of the industry.
• It was in complete contrast to the popular belief that the United States would be running out of oil and gas at the turn of the 21st century.

House 113-187. December 11, 2014. The energy policy and conservation act of 1975: Are we positioning America for success in an era of energy abundance? U.S. House of Representatives. 118 pages.

Excerpts follow:

ED WHITFIELD, KENTUCKY.   This morning’s hearing we are going to be focused on the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), which prohibited the export of crude oil. But as we all know, the trends behind the oil export restrictions have dramatically reversed themselves in recent years. Thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling, domestic oil production has been sharply rising.  In fact, America may soon be producing more oil than it can handle. We will conduct a thorough analysis and give all points of view the opportunity to be heard before we consider whether to take action [to allow the export of crude oil].

JOE BARTON, TEXAS.  I would hope in the new Congress we take a look at the bill that I have introduced this week, H.R. 5814 which repeals the ban on crude oil exports, and it requires a study reported to this committee of what we do with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is a different world today, Mr. Chairman, and when you are number one you use that status. If we allow our producers to export the crude oil that can’t be consumed here in the United States or refined here in the United States, we put pressure on OPEC, we put pressure on Russia, we create jobs here at home, and we make sure that that world price which sets the crude oil price is based on real supply and demand, and that is a good thing for everybody.

House 113-1. February 5, 2013. American energy security & innovation: an assessment of North America’s energy resources. House of Representatives. 202 pages.

ED WHITFIELD, KENTUCKY: The title of today’s hearing is ‘‘American Energy Security and Innovation,’’ and we are going to focus on an assessment of North America’s energy resources. Certainly, one of the primary factors that affects the economy is energy policy, and certainly there are other factors as well but that plays a vital role.

I was reminded as I read the testimony last night that it wasn’t too many years ago when people throughout the country, experts and otherwise, were talking about the United States fossil fuels, for example, their resources were being depleted. We were running out of oil, we were running out of natural gas and we were going to have to be importing more. As a matter of fact, in January 2007, a CEO of one of our largest utility companies made the comment that we were running out of natural gas, production was declining and demand growing so he expected that imports would go from 3 percent of our national needs to 24 percent in 2020.

And then of course, we know what has happened. We have had all sorts of new discoveries—the Bakken field, the Eagle Ford, developments in Colorado—and most of these shale fields have been discovered on private lands, and even though the number of permits on public lands has gone down, the production on private lands has increased dramatically. So this is a real game changer. We have heard the term for many, many years, we have the opportunity to be energy independent, and that is actually the reality today, we have abundant resources that can meet the needs of this country on the electricity side and the transportation side for years and years to come.

We have seen increases in domestic oil production since 2007 and natural gas production since 2006, according to the Energy Information Administration. And EIA predicts that these upward trends will continue for years to come. At the same time, Canadian oil production is growing so fast that we will need the Keystone XL pipeline expansion project to bring the additional output to American refineries in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. In fact, the news is so promising that some analysts are talking about the possibility of achieving North American energy independence by the end of the decade. Of course, experts may disagree as to just how much energy potential is out there, but none would have claimed just a few years ago that our nation would reverse course and have the potential to become a true global energy supplier and powerhouse.

We are seeing a truly dramatic shift away from long-held beliefs about domestic oil and natural gas supplies. So much of our existing legislation is rooted in the assumption of domestic energy scarcity, not energy abundance. Needless to say, a wholesale rethinking of energy policy is in order, and today’s hearing is the first step in that process.

We will soon hear from one of our witnesses, Mary Hutzler of the Institute for Energy Research, America possesses nearly half of the entire world’s coal reserves. This is enough coal to continue its use at current rates for 500 years.

The good news is that a future of plentiful, affordable, and reliable supplies of North American energy is no longer just a dream.

FRED UPTON, MICHIGAN. Certainly, this hearing is a welcome one to examine the positive developments resulting from advancements in innovation and technology, the game-changing potential for North American energy independence. What was once believed to be unthinkable is certainly now within our grasp. For 3 decades, 30 years, the American people have been told that we are a Nation of declining resources at the mercy of OPEC. The story was nearly as gloomy with natural gas with forecasts of dwindling domestic supplies, higher prices, and rising imports from the Middle East.

In fact, in this committee, many may remember when we crafted a new title in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to facilitate what we thought would be the new norm: pending reliance on imported gas from geopolitically unstable regions of the world, to add to our growing reliance on OPEC oil.

But thanks to American ingenuity and advanced technologies, the trends in domestic oil and natural gas production have in fact been turned upside down. In fact, the United States is now the world’s leading producer of natural gas, and the IEA is predicting that by 2020, U.S. oil production will exceed Saudi Arabia. 2020, let me repeat that, we are going to exceed the production in Saudi Arabia. Our overall energy landscape has changed dramatically in just a short period of time, and it is not only rewriting the economic outlook that we have as a Nation, but also beginning to change the geopolitical nature of global energy economics.

JOE BARTON, TEXAS. As we speak today, in the Barnett shale, there are over 16,000 producing natural gas wells, and last year they produced in the neighborhood of 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in that one field. With the miracle of hydraulic fracturing, we have unleashed a drilling and production revolution in this country, not only in natural gas but now that technology is being used in oil, and the State of North Dakota, which less than 10 years ago had probably fewer than 200 or 300 oil wells, is on track in that one State to produce over a million barrels of oil in the very near future, possibly this year. We can be energy independent if we want to. It is not a question of can we.

STATEMENT OF DANIEL YERGIN, Vice Chairman, IHS. The United States is in the midst of an unconventional revolution in oil and gas that fits that all-of- the-above strategy that Congressman Rush talked about.

In March, 2011, President Obama spoke about how “recent innovations have given us the opportunity to tap” large reserves of natural gas – “perhaps a century’s worth of reserves.” 

Those of you who participated in hearings in 2008 remember those dark, dire days when, I think as Chairman Whitfield reminded, the world was going to run out of oil and the United States was going to run out of oil even more quickly. How that has changed. Shale gas now has gone from 2% of our supply to 37% of our supply, and what is really dramatic is what has happened on oil, which instead of continuing its long decline has increased dramatically by almost 39% since 2008. It is sobering to consider that without these technologies, and the oil output that has resulted from them, the sanctions on Iran might well have failed.

Certainly expanded domestic supply will add resilience to shocks and add to our security cushion. Moreover, prudent expansion of U.S. energy exports will actually add an additional dimension to U.S. influence in the world. However, there remains only one world oil market, and a disruption anywhere will be a disruption everywhere.

Owing to the scale and impact of shale gas and tight oil, it is appropriate to describe their development as the most important energy innovation so far of the 21st century. That is said with recognition of the major technological advances in wind and solar since 2000; but, as is described in The Quest, those advances are part of the “rebirth of renewables”. As actual innovations, solar and wind emerged in the 1970s and 1980s.

So far, this unconventional revolution is supporting 1.7 million jobs – direct, indirect, and induced. It is notable that, owing to the long supply chains, the job impacts are being felt across the United States, including in states with no shale gas or tight oil activity. For instance, New York State, with a ban presently in effect on shale gas development, nevertheless has benefited with 44,000 jobs. Illinois, debating how to go forward, already registers 39,000 jobs.

MARY J. HUTZLER. The Institute for Energy Research is a nonprofit think tank that conducts research and analysis concerning global energy issues.

The United States has vast resources of oil, natural gas, and coal. In a few short years, a 40-year paradigm-that we were energy resource poor-has been disproven. lnstead of being resource poor, we are incredibly energy rich.

The amount of technically recoverable oil in the United States totals almost 90% of the entire oil reserves in the world. Technically recoverable resources are not equivalent to reserves, but comparing their magnitudes provides a way to measure size. IER’s estimate of technically recoverable oil in the United States is 1,422 billion barrels. That amount of oil can satisfy U.S. oil demand for 250 years at current usage rates or it can fuel every passenger car in the United States for 430 years. It is also more oil than the entire world has used in all human history. The technically recoverable natural gas resources in the United States total 40% of the world’s natural gas reserves. At 2,744 trillion cubic feet, it can fuel natural gas demand in the United States for 175 years at current usage rates, or selectively, it can satisfy the nation’s residential demand for 857 years or the nation’s electricity demand for 575 years.

Technically recoverable coal resources in the United States are unsurpassed and total 50% of the world’s coal reserves. At 486 billion short tons, it can supply our country’s electricity demand for coal for almost 500 years at current usage rates.

Natural Gas Replenishment

The Myth of Peak Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal For many years, we have heard of fossil fuels reaching their peak production levels or at the verge of being depleted.

The same is true for the myth of ‘peak’ coal. In 2007, David Hughes, Geologist for the Geological Survey of Canada, stated, “Peak coal looks like it’s occurred in the lower 48.” And yet, the United States still has the largest coal reserves in the world. Rather than depletion effects, our coal industry is faced with overly broad and restrictive regulations on the use of coal and increasing restrictions on coal production from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Harry Vidas, Vice President, ICF International. ICF estimates that the remaining technically recoverable U.S. natural gas resource base is 3,850 trillion cubic feet, which represents 155 years of current consumption. The U.S. shale gas resource is almost 2,000 TCF, 52% of the total.

Our current assessment of the U.S. oil resources in terms of technically recoverable resources is 264 billion barrels. This represents 110 years of production at current production rates.

House 112-176. September 13, 2012. The American energy initiative part 28: A focus on the outlook for Achieving North American energy independence within the decade. House of Representatives.

ED WHITFIELD, KENTUCKY. Today we are going to talk about what I consider some very good news, and that is the achievability of North American energy independence and particularly oil independence within the span of a mere decade. And not only can we talk about oil but we also could talk about independence in natural gas because of the tremendous finds that we are finding. Today, we are going to talk about some very good news – the achievability of North American energy independence, and particularly oil independence, within the span of a mere decade.

Mr. Harold Hamm, Chairman and CEO of Continental Resources and energy policy advisor to Governor Romney. I’m here today to talk to you about the viability of American energy independence. I am here to testify to the policies needed to insure North American Energy Independence in the next decade. America is endowed with an estimated 139.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil-enough to replace Persian Gulf imports for the next 50 years. We also have undiscovered technically recoverable natural gas of 1445.3 trillion cubic feet.

We now have natural gas reserves of over a century.

Daniel Ahn, Chief Commodities Economist at Citigroup in New York. Earlier this year, my colleagues and I published a report entitled ‘‘Energy 2020: North America, the New Middle East,’’ and I would like to take the opportunity to share and update its conclusions. North America has recently become the fastest-growing hydrocarbon producer and exporter in the world, and this trend should accelerate to the end of the decade.  American dependence on imported oil outside of North America should shrink or even be eliminated entirely. Global oil prices could fall by 15 or even 20 percent. Energy-intensive manufacturing industries such as petroleum refining, petrochemicals, fertilizers, iron, steel, aluminum smelting, all should strategically benefit. Natural-gas-fueled vehicles could proliferate on American roads. Given the confluence of declining consumption and growing production, and what is geologically, technologically, and economically feasible, we project that North America can potentially achieve energy independence (i.e. oil/gas net self-sufficiency) by 2020.

John Freeman, Energy Research Group at Raymond James.

America is already a major exporter of coal, and together with Canada, we are already self-sufficient when it comes to natural gas, and for the first time in over 50 years, there is clear visibility on how oil independence can be achieved.  We believe imports can disappear entirely by as early as 2020.

Mark P. Mills, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute. The United States can, quite literally, drill, dig, build, and ship its way out of the current economic and jobs malaise. The new reality of hydro carbon abundance makes possible not only energy independence, but also a credible scenario in which the Middle East is displaced as the world’s primary energy exporter.

Mr. POMPEO. Mr. Hamm, it wasn’t very long ago that there was peak oil, we are about out of the stuff. All of American energy policy really for the last 25, 30 years under both parties was premised on that notion. Any validity to the fact that you are wrong, that what we have heard from these economists today is wrong and that we do have this challenge in front of us in the near term?

Mr. HAMM. There are several believers in peak oil. I wasn’t in that group. You know, there are still some people, I guess, that maybe are talking about peak oil. But, you know, frankly it is supply and development and we are seeing so many other oil plays across the United States today that, you know, it is almost too many to quantify at this time. But the big ones that we have, of course the Bakken and Eagle Ford, and that is adding so much supply here in the United States, plus natural-gas production across the United States brings a lot of liquid with it as well.

Steve Scalise, Louisiana. I think a lot of us have been pushing to get North America energy independence within a decade. It is clearly a goal that we can achieve, but it is also clearly a goal that can’t be achieved under the current policies of President Obama