Potassium is one of the Big 3 essential plant nutrients that has allowed human population to soar to 8 billion people,as well as phosphorus and nitrogen. Potassium is a vital nutrient for plant growth that helps with photosynthesis and respiration, the lack of which can inhibit plant growth and reduce crop yields. Farmers often spread potassium-rich fertilizers over their fields to replenish the depleted nutrient.
Rawashdeh (2020) found that potash (the mineral potassium comes from) was likely to peak in 2057 using the Hubbert logistic model, or 2060 using the Gompertz model. Depending on reserve assumptions, the maximum production peak could be anywhere from 2029 to 2095. Regardless of the model, energy shortages, wars, supply chain failures, economic, and political factors can also lead to shortages.
This makes it less likely that the need to double food production by 2050 for the 3 billion people on the way and other uses will happen. The main use of potash is fertilizer, but it is also used for industrial water treatment, animal feed supplements, cement, fire extinguishers and textile production.
Brownlie et al (2024) found that more potassium is being removed from agricultural soils than is being added. World-wide, about 20% of agricultural soils face severe potassium deficiency, especially 44% of agricultural soils in South-East Asia, 39% in Latin America, 30% in Sub-Saharan Africa and 20% in East Asia, mainly due to intensive agricultural practices. Co-author Professor Mark Maslin (UCL Geography) said, “Potassium is critical to sustaining the crop yields that keep the world fed, and its depletion poses a significant threat to the food security of millions of people around the world.
Potential supply chains could arise in the future since just four countries produce 80% of the world’s total raw potash, with another 8 nations sharing in the £12 billion international market for potassium fertilizers. Indeed, supply chain failure has already been felt around the world as the UK, US, Canada, and the EU imposed sanctions on Russia and Belarus, who produce 42% of the world’s potash. This is the main reason the price spiked 500% in April 22.
Rawashdeh’s (2020) models of peak production by country year/amount were Canada 2042 16.0 Mt, Belarus 2040 13.5Mt, Russia 2073 21Mt, Jordan 2056 3.1Mt and Israel 2045, 3.5Mt. Germany peaked in 1980 and the USA in 1968.
The price has dropped by half since then, still far more than many poor farmers of the world can afford.
And like most mining, potash production has significant impacts on the environment by generating millions of tons of mainly sodium chloride salts that can leach into soils and salinize soil and water tables. There may be other harms as well, this needs more study.
So far attempts to recover potash have failed due to high costs. Nor has a substitute been found despite the economic theory that you can’t run out of anything because genius human minds, and now AI, will Find A Solution.
References
Brownlie WJ et al (2024) Global food security threatened by potassium neglect. Nature Food. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-024-00929-8
Rawashdeh RA (2020) World peak potash: An analytical study. Resources policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101834
Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Women in ecology Podcasts: WGBH, Financial Sense, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity, Index of best energyskeptic posts