Preface.  It is rare for a mainstream newspaper to bring up overshoot, so congratulations to the scientific paper of Merz et al (2023) for appearing in The Guardian.  It is so frustrating for those of us who are ecologically aware to see only climate change mentioned and not biodiversity, ocean acidification, and a dozen more factors driving the 6^th extinction, with the only “solution” on offer to consume more, but Greenly, with renewable energy that will cause up to 37% of Earth’s surface to be mined for the metals to make just the first generation of them for 20-30 years.

Below is the abstract from the paper, and a few more excerpts (it’s open source, read it all here).

I also excerpted their section on some of the other World Scientists’ Warnings because it gives you an idea of much of what overshoot encompasses.

Though of course people don’t want to know. Too depressing and easy to believe whatever you want.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Financial Sense, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Merz JJ, Rees W et al (2023) World scientists’ warning: The behavioural crisis driving ecological overshoot. Science Progress. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00368504231201372

Abstract

Previously, anthropogenic ecological overshoot has been identified as a fundamental cause of the myriad symptoms we see around the globe today from biodiversity loss and ocean acidification to the disturbing rise in novel entities and climate change. In the present paper, we have examined this more deeply, and explore the behavioral drivers of overshoot, providing evidence that overshoot is itself a symptom of a deeper, more subversive modern crisis of human behavior. We work to name and frame this crisis as ‘the Human Behavioral Crisis’ and propose the crisis be recognised globally as a critical intervention point for tackling ecological overshoot. We demonstrate how current interventions are largely physical, resource intensive, slow-moving and focused on addressing the symptoms of ecological overshoot (such as climate change) rather than the distal cause (maladaptive behaviors). We argue that even in the best-case scenarios, symptom-level interventions are unlikely to avoid catastrophe or achieve more than ephemeral progress. We explore three drivers of the behavioral crisis in depth: economic growth; marketing; and pronatalism. These three drivers directly impact the three ‘levers’ of overshoot: consumption, waste and population. We demonstrate how the maladaptive behaviors of overshoot stemming from these three drivers have been catalysed and perpetuated by the intentional exploitation of previously adaptive human impulses. In the final sections of this paper, we propose an interdisciplinary emergency response to the behavioral crisis by, amongst other things, the shifting of social norms relating to reproduction, consumption and waste. We seek to highlight a critical disconnect that is an ongoing societal gulf in communication between those that know such as scientists working within limits to growth, and those members of the citizenry, largely influenced by social scientists and industry, that must act.

Introduction

Modern humans and millions of other species face an unprecedented number of existential threats due to anthropogenic impacts exceeding our planet’s boundaries.¹ We are in dangerous territory with instability in the known realms of biosphere integrity, land system change and novel entities such as plastics and synthetic toxins, climate change, freshwater change and biogeochemical flows.

Considering the dynamic, closed and interconnected nature of Earth’s systems together, these threats pose an increasingly catastrophic risk to all complex life on Earth. Many scientists privately believe it to be already too late to avoid the tipping points that will trigger devastating and irreversible feedback loops.²

It is increasingly acknowledged that all of these threats are symptoms of anthropogenic ecological overshoot. Overshoot is defined as the human consumption of natural resources at rates faster than they can be replenished, and entropic waste production in excess of the Earth’s assimilative and processing capacity.^3–7

Previous scientists’ warnings

The initial ‘World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity’ was published in 1992,¹⁸ starkly emphasizing the collision between human demands and the regenerative capacity of the biosphere. It was followed by a further report, ‘World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice’¹⁹ which confirmed that the intervening 25 years had merely accelerated environmental destruction driven by a global population increasing by more than 40% – some 2 billion humans. The ‘World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency’ report,²⁰ so far endorsed by 14,859 scientists from 158 countries, proposed a range of measures for restoring and protecting natural ecosystems, conserving energy, reducing pollutants, reducing food waste, adopting more plant-based diets, stabilizing population and reforming the global economy.

Subsequent warnings from the scientific community have added to the evidence of overshoot including insect extinctions,²¹ the impact of climate change on microorganisms,²² the freshwater biodiversity crisis,²³ endangered food webs,²⁴ invasive alien species,²⁵ the degradation of large lakes,²⁶ the illegal/unsustainable wildlife trade,²⁷ the role of affluence,²⁸ tree extinctions,²⁹ an imperiled ocean,³⁰ and population growth as a specific driver.³¹ These papers are gathered on the Alliance of World Scientists website.

Despite so many warnings, there has been a marked lack of action, driving several of us to co-author a ‘World Scientists’ Warnings into Action, Local to Global’ paper,³² so far endorsed by over 3,000 scientists from more than 110 nations, to set out a framework for concrete action to curb our hyperconsumption of resources. This paper focused on the same six key issues (energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population and the economy, plus governance and leadership), and on three timelines to 2026, 2030 and 2050. None of the key issues identified by the authors are isolated problems; they are all symptoms of human ecological overshoot.

In the present paper, we contend that an underlying behavioral crisis lies at the root of ‘overshoot’ and probe the implications for humanity if we are to retain a habitable planet and civilization. While human behaviors were implicit in the various world scientists’ warnings, we believe they need explicit attention and concerted emergency action in order to avoid a ghastly future.³³

Previous scientist’s warnings references

18. World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity. https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2017/11/World%2520Scientists%2527%2520Warning%2520to%2520Humanity%25201992.pdf
19. Ripple W, Wolf C, Newsome T, et al. World Scientists’ warning to humanity: a second notice. BioScience 2017; 67: 1026–1028.
20. Ripple WJ, Wolf C, Newsome TM, et al. World Scientists’ warning of a climate emergency. BioScience 2020; 70: 8–12.
21. Cardoso P, Barton PS, Birkhofer K, et al. Scientists’ warning to humanity on insect extinctions. Biol Conserv 2020; 242: 108426.
22. Cavicchioli R, Ripple WJ, Timmis KN, et al. Scientists’ warning to humanity: microorganisms and climate change. Nat Rev Microbiol 2019; 17: 569–586.
23. Albert JS, Destouni G, Duke-Sylvester SM, et al. Scientists’ warning to humanity on the freshwater biodiversity crisis. Ambio 2021; 50: 85–94.
24. Heleno RH, Ripple WJ, Traveset A. Scientists’ warning on endangered food webs. Web Ecol 2020; 20: 1–10.
25. Pyšek P, Hulme PE, Simberloff D, et al. Scientists’ warning on invasive alien species. Biol Rev 2020; 95: 1511–1534.
26. Jenny JP, Anneville O, Arnaud F, et al. Scientists’ warning to humanity: rapid degradation of the world’s large lakes. J Gt Lakes Res 2020; 46: 686–702.
27. Cardoso P, Amponsah-Mensah K, Barreiros JP, et al. Scientists’ warning to humanity on illegal or unsustainable wildlife trade. Biol Conserv 2021; 263: 109341.
28. Wiedmann T, Lenzen M, Keyßer LT,. et al. Scientists’ warning on affluence. Nat Commun 2020; 11: 3107.
29. Rivers M, Newton AC, Oldfield S, et al. Scientists’ warning to humanity on tree extinctions. Plants People Planet 2023; 5: 466–482.
30. Georgian S, Hameed S, Morgan L, et al. Scientists’ warning of an imperiled ocean. Biol Conserv 2022; 272: 109595.
31. Crist E, Ripple WJ, Ehrlich PR, et al. Scientists’ warning on population. Sci Total Environ 2022; 845: 157166.
32. Barnard P, Moomaw WR, Fioramonti L, et al. World scientists’ warnings into action, local to global. Sci Prog 2021; 104: 368504211056290.
33. Bradshaw CJA, Ehrlich PR, Beattie A, et al. Underestimating the challenges of avoiding a ghastly future. Front Conserv Sci 2021