Preface. As climate change heats the planet, and groundwater depletes from aquifers that won’t be recharged until after the next ice age, it’s clear that food crises from drought (and many other problems) will be upon us soon. As long as we have diesel fuel, food supplies can be brought in from other parts of the country and world, but at some point of oil decline and localization, drought will be much more of a problem than it is now.
Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com author of “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy”, 2021, Springer; “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report
***
Huning LS, AghaKouchak A (2020) Global snow drought hot spots and characteristics. PNAS 117: 19753-19759.
Researchers studied the effects of snow draughts on water supplies world-wide from 1980 to 2018. Snowmelt provides freshwater to more than a billion people, one sixth of the world’s population. Water from melting snow irrigates the crops of farming regions including areas that seldom if ever receive any snow during the winter, such as California’s Central Valley. Snow-water deficits have increased 28% in the Western U.S. during the second half of the study period, and to a lesser extent, Eastern Russia & Europe.
Lobell DB, Deines JM, Di Tommaso S (2020) Changes in the drought sensitivity of US maize yields. Nature Food.
The U.S. Corn Belt’s high crop yields conceal a growing vulnerability. Although yields have increased overall due to new technologies and management approaches, crops are becoming significantly more sensitive to drought conditions.
When corn crops succumb to drought, this not only affects food prices and availability, but also ethanol production. One of the reasons crops are becoming more susceptible to drought is that soils are able to hold less water than in the past.
Nabhan GP (2013) Our Coming Food Crisis. New York Times.
Long stretches of triple-digit days out West are getting more common and that will threaten our food supply. 2012 was the hottest year in American history. Half of all counties in the United States were declared national drought disaster areas. 90% of these counties were doubly devastated by heat waves as well.
The 17 Western states account for nearly 40% of farm income, and current and future heat waves will reduce the amount of food produced. On cause is that overheated crops need a lot more water. After several years of drought both surface and groundwater supplies have diminished and the energy costs have gone way up because water needs to be pumped up from much deeper levels.
This means food costs are going to go up at a time when 1 in 6 people are already on food stamps and having a hard time making ends meet.
Strategies to cope have been blocked from being added to the current farm bill, such as promoting locally produced compost to hold moisture in the soil of row crops and orchards. This also adds carbon and increases yields. Increasing organic matter from 1 to 5% can increase water storage in rot zones from 33 pounds to 195 pounds per cubic meter. Cities could provide enormous amounts of compost, but most green waste ends up in landfill and generates the greenhouse gas methane.