Category Archives: ! PEAK EVERYTHING

Food, topsoil, aquifers, phosphorus, rare metals essential to microchip fabrication, windmills, solar, and other products; sand; oil; natural gas

Peak Coal in China likely to be around 2024

Mohr, S. H., et al. February 1, 2015. Projection of world fossil fuels by country. Fuel volume 141: 120-135. We model world fossil fuel production by country including unconventional sources. Scenarios suggest coal production peaks before 2025 due to China. … Continue reading

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Global oil risks in the early 21st century, Energy Policy 2011

[This is a large excerpt from an excellent 18-page paper I think predicts how the future will unfold as well as a good overview of our predicament. Alice Friedemann] Fantazzini, Dean; Höök, Mikael; Angelantoni, André. 2011. Global oil risks in … Continue reading

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Peak soil, peak phosphate, peak fertilizer means Peak Food

Amundson, R., et al. May 7, 2015. Soil and human security in the 21st century. Science 348. A group of leading soil scientists has summarized the precarious state of the world’s soil resources and the possible ramifications for human security … Continue reading

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A third of Nuclear Reactors are going to die of old age in the next 10-20 years

70% of reactors are over 25 years old, 23% are over 35 years old, so within 10 to 20 years about a third will have to be decommissioned, far more than the 63 under construction.  Some are bound to fail … Continue reading

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Charles A. S. Hall Conventional oil peak was 2005

The global production of conventional oil began to decline in 2005, and has followed a path over the last 11 years very close to our scenarios assuming low estimates of extractable ultimate resource (1.9 Gbbl) John L. Hallock Jr., Wei … Continue reading

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Over 21 essential resources have peaked including fish, milk, eggs, wheat, corn, rice, soy

Nature summary of this article: “The rates at which humans consume multiple resources such as food and wood peaked at roughly the same time, around 2006. This means that resources could be simultaneously depleted, so achieving sustainability might be more … Continue reading

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Solar Photovoltaics (PV) limited by raw materials

This paper (excerpts below) shows that there are limits to growth — there simply aren’t enough minerals in the world that can be produced physically and/or at a reasonable cost for the many of the most common kinds of PV … Continue reading

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Limits to Growth

Preface. What follows are a bunch of articles on limits to growth, sometimes just a link, sometimes excerpts. Today Wall Street Journal and other neocapitalists scorn the idea, insisting that human ingenuity and substitution can overcome all obstacles, and they … Continue reading

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Shale “fracked” natural gas peak by 2020: Mason Inman’s “Natural gas, the fracking fallacy”

[ In 2005 the U.S. was making desperate plans to build dozens of Liquefied Natural Gas plants for importing gas. Fracked gas changed that for the past 10 years, indeed, now the U.S. is talking about exporting natural gas.  But … Continue reading

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Out of time: 50 years to make a transition, 210 years at the current rate

If transportation is to be electrified, then electric generation and the electric grid must be doubled, or even tripled. So by Cobb’s calculation, that would push back the transition time to renewables 420 to 630 years.  Alice Friedemann. By Kurt … Continue reading

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