800 scientists: Burning forests for electricity & heat releases more 1.5x more CO2 than coal, 3x more than natural gas

Preface. The 2015 Paris climate change agreement states that burning biomass is carbon neutral.

Not true.

Over 800 scientists have written the European Parliament to tell them that burning wood for heat or electricity emits 1.5 x more CO2 than coal and 3 x more than natural gas. It puts forests all over the globe in danger and destroys biodiversity.

On top of that, although trees grow faster in warmer conditions — which should lessen global heating and reduce carbon dioxide, a new study finds that the faster trees grow, the sooner they die – and therefore stop storing carbon. Trees that grow more quickly may be more vulnerable to drought, disease and pests. When trees die, they give up their stored carbon gradually, in the form of methane, a greenhouse gas. This means that many standard climate change models of how we can use forests as carbon sinks, to absorb the carbon dioxide we produce from fossil fuel burning, are likely to overestimate the benefits (Brienen 2020).

Excerpts below (tables and other references left out).

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Searchinger TD, et al. 2018. Europe’s renewable energy directive poised to harm global forests. Nature Communications 9:3741.

Abstract. This comment raises concerns regarding the way in which a new European directive, aimed at reaching higher renewable energy targets, treats wood harvested directly for bioenergy use as a carbon-free fuel. The result could consume quantities of wood equal to all Europe’s wood harvests, greatly increase carbon in the air for decades, and set a dangerous global example.

In January of this year, he Parliament of the European Union voted to allow countries, power plants and factories to claim that cutting down trees just to burn them for energy fully qualifies as low-carbon, renewable energy. It did so against the written advice of almost 800 scientists that this policy would accelerate climate change. Because meeting a small quantity of Europe’s energy use requires a large quantity of wood, and because of the example it sets for the world, the Renewable Energy Directive profoundly threatens the world’s forests.

Makers of wood products have for decades generated electricity and heat from wood process wastes, which still supply the bulk of Europe’s forest-based bioenergy. Although burning these wastes emits carbon dioxide, it benefits the climate because the wastes would quickly decompose and release their carbon anyway. Yet nearly all such wastes have long been used.

Over the last decade, however, Europe has expanded its use of wood harvested to burn directly for energy, much from U.S. and Canadian forests in the form of wood pellets. Contrary to repeated claims, almost 90% of these wood pellets come from the main stems of trees, mostly of pulpwood quality, or from sawdust otherwise used for wood products.

Greenhouse gas effects of burning wood

Unlike wood wastes, harvesting additional wood just for burning is likely to increase carbon in the atmosphere for decades to centuries. This effect results from the fact that wood is a carbon-based fuel whose harvest and use are inefficient from a greenhouse gas (GHG) perspective. Typically, around one third or more of each harvested tree is contained in roots and small branches that are properly left in the forest to protect soils but that decompose and release carbon. Wood that reaches a power plant can displace fossil emissions but per kWh of electricity typically emits 1.5x the CO2 of coal and 3x the CO2 of natural gas because of wood’s carbon bonds, water content and lower burning temperature (and pelletizing wood provides no net advantages).

Allowing trees to regrow can reabsorb the carbon, but for some years a regrowing forest typically absorbs less carbon than if the forest were left unharvested, increasing the carbon debt. Eventually, the regrowing forest grows faster and the additional carbon it then absorbs plus the reduction in fossil fuels can together pay back the carbon debt on the first stand harvested. But even then, carbon debt remains on the additional stands harvested in succeeding years, and it takes more years for more stands to regrow before there is just carbon parity between use of wood and fossil fuels. It then takes many more years of forest regrowth to achieve substantial GHG reductions.

The renewability of trees, unlike fossil fuels, helps explain why biomass can eventually reduce GHGs but only over long periods. The amount of increase in GHGs by 2050 depends on which and how forests are ultimately harvested, how the energy is used and whether wood replaces coal, oil or natural gas. Yet overall, replacing fossil fuels with wood will likely result in 2-3x more carbon in the atmosphere in 2050 per gigajoule of final energy. Because the likely renewable alternative would be truly low carbon solar or wind, the plausible, net effect of the biomass provisions could be to turn a ~5% decrease in energy emissions by 2050 into increases of ~5–10% or even more.

Consequences for forests

The implications for forests and carbon are large because even though Europe harvests almost as much wood as the US and Canada combined, these harvests could only supply ~5.5% of its primary energy and ~4% of its final energy. If wood were to supply 40% of the additional renewable energy the wood volumes required would equal all of Europe’s wood harvest. In fact, the Renewable Energy Directive sets a goal to increase by 10% renewable energy for heat, sourced overwhelmingly from wood, which would likely by itself use ~50% of Europe’s present annual wood harvest. European Commission planning documents projected somewhat smaller roles for bioenergy based on lower renewable energy targets, but they scale up to ~55–85% of Europe’s wood harvest at the larger target ultimately adopted. Supplying this level of wood will probably require expanding harvests in forests all over the world.

The global signal may have even greater effects on climate and biodiversity. At the last global climate conference, tropical forest countries and others, including Indonesia and Brazil, jointly declared goals “to increase the use of wood … to generate energy as part of efforts to limit climate change”. Once countries and powerful private companies become invested in such efforts, further expansion will become harder to stop. The effect can already be seen in the United States, where Congress in both 2017 and 2018 added provisions to annual spending bills declaring nearly all forest biomass carbon free—although environmentalists have so far fought to limit the legal effects to a single year. If the world met just an additional 2% of global primary energy with wood, it would need to double its industrial wood harvests.

Why the RED sustainability criteria are insufficient

Unfortunately, various sustainability conditions would have little consequence. For example, one repeated instruction is that harvesting trees should occur sustainably, but sustainable does not equal low carbon. Perhaps the strictest version of sustainability, often defended as a landscape approach, claims GHG reductions so long as harvest of trees in a country (or just one forest) does not exceed the forest’s incremental growth. Yet, by definition, this incremental growth would otherwise add biomass, and therefore carbon storage to the forest, holding down climate change. This carbon sink, in large part due to climate change itself, is already factored into climate projections and is not disposable. Harvesting and burning this biomass reduces the sink and adds carbon to the air just like burning any other carbon fuel. The directive only requires forests to maintain existing carbon stocks in limited circumstances, but given the size of the global forest sink, even applying such a rule everywhere would still allow global industrial wood harvests to more than triple.

The directive also repeatedly cites a goal to preserve biodiversity, but its provisions will afford little protection. Prohibitions on harvesting wood directly for bioenergy apply only to primary forests—a small share of global forests. In addition, any forests could be cut to replace the vast quantities of wood diverted from existing managed forests to bioenergy.

Some argue that increasing carbon in the atmosphere for decades is fine so long as reductions eventually occur, but timely mitigation matters. More carbon in the atmosphere for decades means more damages for decades, and more permanent damages due to more rapid melting of permafrost, glaciers and ice-sheets, and more packing of heat and acidity into the world’s oceans. Recognizing this need, the EU otherwise requires that GHG reductions occur over 20-years, but that timing does not apply to forest biomass.

Instead, the directive incorporates the view that forest biomass is inherently carbon neutral if harvested sustainably. Although the directive requires that bioenergy generate large greenhouse gas reductions, its accounting rules ignore the carbon emitted by burning biomass itself. They only count GHGs from trace gases and use of fossil fuels to produce the bioenergy, which is like counting the GHGs from coal-mining machinery but not from burning the coal.

The main new Commission thinking, reflected in the sustainability provisions, is that bioenergy rules do not need to count plant carbon so long as countries that supply the wood have commitments related to land use emissions under European rules or the Paris accord. But this thinking repeats the confusion that occurred at the time of the Kyoto Protocol between rules designed only to count global emissions and laws designed to shape national or private incentives. Under accounting rules for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), countries that burn biomass can ignore the resulting energy emissions because the countries that cut down the trees used for the biomass must count the carbon lost from the forest. Switching from coal to biomass allows a country to ignore real energy emissions that physically occur there, but the country supplying the wood must report higher land use emissions (at least compared to the no-bioenergy alternative). The combination does not make bioenergy carbon free because it balances out global accounting, the limited goal of national reporting.

But this accounting system does not work for national energy laws. If a country’s laws give its power plants strong financial incentives to switch from coal to wood on the theory that wood is carbon-neutral, those power plants have incentives to burn wood regardless of the real carbon consequences. Even if a country supplying the wood reports higher land use emissions through the UNFCCC, that carbon is not the power plant’s problem. Only if all potential wood-supplying countries imposed a carbon fee on the harvest of wood, and this fee equaled Europe’s financial incentive to burn it, would European power plants have a financial reason to properly factor the carbon into their decisions. No country has done that or seems likely to do so.

In fact, few countries have any obligation to compensate for reduced carbon in their forests because few countries have adopted quantitative goals in the land use sector as part of the Paris accord. Even if countries did try to make up for reduced forest carbon due to bioenergy with additional mitigation of some kind, all Europe would achieve is a requirement that its consumers pay more to do something harmful for the climate so that other countries could then spend additional money to compensate.

Europe has also created a kind of reverse strategy by treating forest and all other biomass as carbon neutral in its Emissions Trading System, which limits emissions from power plants and factories. While the not yet realized hope is to reward countries for preserving carbon in forests, this bioenergy policy means forest owners can be rewarded for the carbon in their trees—so long as they cut them down and sell them for energy. The higher the price of carbon rises, the more valuable cutting down trees will become. Strangely, this policy also undermines years of efforts to save trees by recycling used paper instead of burning it for energy. Even as recycling polices push consumers to save trees, this policy will encourage others to burn them.

Although some scientists support this use of forests, and the IPCC has found it difficult to speak clearly about biomass in the face of different views, the fact that ~800 scientists came forward provides hope of a clearer and stronger message from the scientific community. The fate of the biosphere appears at stake. Individual European countries still have discretion to pursue alternatives to forest biomass. Whatever their fields, all scientists who care should educate themselves, overcome a natural reluctance to venture into a separate and controversial field, speak with great clarity and hold public institutions to account.

References

Brienen RJW, et al (2020) Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs. Nature Communications.

Posted in Biomass, Climate Change, CO2 and Methane, Deforestation | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Civilization will collapse in 20-40 years from deforestation

Preface.  At current rates of deforestation, forests will be gone in 100-200 years. Long before that, in 20-40 years, the effects will be felt, with a 90% chance of civilization collapse likely.  Below “deforestation in the news” are excerpts from an article by Nafeez Ahmed, who is summarizes the findings of Bologna (2020) about why deforestation could cause collapse in just a few decades.

Deforestation in the news:

Gross A et al (2020) Global deforestation accelerates during pandemic. Tree cover losses increase 77% as collapse in economies pushes exploitation of resources. Financial Times.  Forests have been razed at an alarming rate across Asia, Africa and Latin America during the coronavirus pandemic. Even more sinister are those parts of the world where we’re seeing deliberate attempts to use the cover of the pandemic to deforest. Deforestation releases large stores of carbon into the air and warms the atmosphere.  The coronavirus pandemic has made law enforcement of illegal logging difficult as well.

Ellis-Petersen H (2020) India plans to fell ancient forest to create 40 new coalfields. The Guardian. Among them are four huge blocks of Hasdeo Arand’s 420,000 acres of forest in the central Indian state of Chhattisgarh, which sit above an estimated 5bn tonnes of coal. At least seven of the coal blocks up for auction were previously deemed “no go” areas for mining due to their environmentally valuable status and about 80% of the blocks are home to indigenous communities and thick forest cover. With its 45% ash content, making it some of the most polluting coal in the world, there is unlikely to be an international market for Indian coal. In addition, many major factories in India cannot run on “dirty” domestic coal, meaning they will still need to import it from abroad.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Ahmed, N. 2020. Collapse Within Several Decades Deforestation and rampant resource use is likely to trigger the ‘irreversible collapse’ of human civilization unless we rapidly change course. Vice.com

Two theoretical physicists specializing in complex systems conclude that global deforestation due to human activities is on track to trigger the “irreversible collapse” of human civilization within the next two to four decades. 

If we continue destroying and degrading the world’s forests, Earth will no longer be able to sustain a large human population, according to Bologna (2020). They say that if the rate of deforestation continues, “all the forests would disappear approximately in 100–200 years.”

“Clearly it is unrealistic to imagine that the human society would start to be affected by the deforestation only when the last tree would be cut down,” they write.  

This trajectory would make the collapse of human civilization take place much earlier due to the escalating impacts of deforestation on the planetary life-support systems necessary for human survival—including carbon storage, oxygen production, soil conservation, water cycle regulation, support for natural and human food systems, and homes for countless species.  

In the absence of these critical services, “it is highly unlikely to imagine the survival of many species, including ours, on Earth without [forests]” the study points out. “The progressive degradation of the environment due to deforestation would heavily affect human society and consequently the human collapse would start much earlier.” 

Tracking the current rate of population growth against the rate of deforestation, the authors found that “statistically the probability to survive without facing a catastrophic collapse, is very low.” Its best case scenario is that we have a less than 10 percent chance of avoiding collapse.

The underlying driver of the current collapse trajectory is that “consumption of the planetary resources may be not perceived as strongly as a mortal danger for the human civilization”, because it is “driven by Economy”. Such a civilization “privileges the interest of its components with less or no concern for the whole ecosystem that hosts them.”  

The most effective way to increase our chances of survival is to shift focus from extreme self-interest to a sense of stewardship for each other, other species, and the ecosystems in which we find ourselves. 

Scientific paper: Bologna M, et al. 2020. Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis. Nature Scientific reports.

McKenna, Phil. 2015-11-26. Sputtering Corporate Effort to Save Forests Highlights a Big Issue for Paris Talks. InsideClimate News

Key findings:

  • There are no signs that the annual rate of forest loss is slowing.
  • Only 8% of 250 “powerbroker” corporations—and less than 1% of the 150 leading lenders and investors in agricultural companies—have polices in place to eliminate or reduce deforestation.
  • Deforestation accounts for about 10 percent of global man-made emissions through the razing and burning of trees. Because tropical forests are potent carbon sponges, stopping deforestation—and allowing damaged forests to recover—could deliver as much as 40 percent of the emissions cuts needed to keep global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

The New York Declaration on Forests was supposed to help halve forest loss by 2020, but an initial assessment published last week by the Amsterdam-based consulting company Climate Focus along with a group of non-governmental organizations said deforestation has not slowed in the countries that signed the pact. Very few of the world’s leading companies whose practices drive deforestation have changed their policies to begin to tackle the issue, according to a separate report published last week by the Global Canopy Programme.

The declaration was signed in September 2014 by 52 companies—including Unilever, Walmart and General Mills—as well as more than 30 countries and 100-plus subnational governments, indigenous groups and non-governmental organizations. They committed to 10 goals, meant to cut the world’s forest loss in half by 2020 and end it by 2030. The declaration was notable for its ambitious targets and rare collaboration among countries and corporations, and for tackling the root causes of deforestation, primarily corporate agriculture practices. The majority of tropical forest loss and degradation is driven by the production of only six commodities: palm oil, soy, beef, leather, timber, and pulp and paper.

Cutting the rate of deforestation in half, the goal of the New York declaration, would require $20 to $30 billion a year, significantly more than current pledges, which remain less than $10 billion a year, according to Boucher of the UCS.

 

Posted in Deforestation, Limits To Growth | Tagged , , | 14 Comments

Only a fifth of Earth’s land has little human influence

Preface. Humans have basically taken over the best land on the planet, the places where we aren’t ruining it are really cold, high or dry areas of land, such as arctic landscapes, mountainous areas or deserts.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Riggio J, et al. 2020. Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth’s remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems. Global Change Biology.

Humans inhabit most of the planet with just 20% of ice-free land free of our influence.

A team of researchers led by Jason Riggio at the University of California, Davis, analyzed four maps showing global human influence around the world at different times between 2009 and 2015, and created a single global map highlighting areas where people have the least influence.

Very low human influence of land is either not occupied or used by people, or has low density populations of indigenous peoples. These are primarily wilderness areas where humans are visitors, not residents.

After excluding the estimated 10 per cent of Earth that is ice-covered such as Antarctica and most of Greenland, or glaciers elsewhere in the world, and calculating the level of agreement between the four maps, they found that 21% of the remaining land on Earth has very low human influence.

Most of the low human influence areas on the planet are really cold, high or dry areas of land, such as arctic landscapes, montane areas or deserts. In contrast, only about 10% of grass lands and dry forests have low human influence.

The analysis suggests “the overall trend is that we continue to lose natural landscapes and overall human influence is increasing globally”, says Riggio.

“A global human influence map is critical to understand the extent and intensity of human pressures on Earth’s ecosystems,” says Riggio. Highlighting the few remaining areas on Earth with little human impact could also help governments and organisations to plan and prioritise which areas of the world to protect.

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Deforestation, Limits To Growth, Overpopulation | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Escape collapse on a DIY floating island

Preface. Build your own sustainable floating compound. At Freedom Cove, food preparation takes up a large part of the day. Without a refrigerator or freezer, the couple catch fish and grow almost all the food they consume in a large garden as well as four green houses packed tightly together with tomatoes, peppers, swiss chard, apples and corn.

To see even more pictures of this wonderful island, go here.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Gopal, T. 2020. How one couple has lived for 29 years on an island they built themselves. CNN.

gbs off the grid homemade island pkg_00000220.jpg

Off the grid on a homemade island

As stay-at-home orders due to the ongoing pandemic have forced many of us to learn to love solitude and become reacquainted with our homes, one couple’s life has remained virtually unchanged. Ten miles north of Tofino, British Columbia, off the west coast of Vancouver Island, Catherine King and Wayne Adams live on a sustainable, floating compound. It’s called “Freedom Cove,” a labor of love, hand-built using recycled and salvaged materials. It’s been their home for the past 29 years. Freedom Cove is a 25-minute boat ride away from the closest town, and don’t even think about hopping in a car. “The only option to get here is by water,” Adams says. “There are no road accesses. The water is our highway.”

Welcome to Freedom Cove, a sustainable island fortress floating off the coast of Vancouver Island.While there are lines that tether the compound back to the shore, it is not anchored to the ocean floor. When you arrive, you’re immediately greeted by bright magenta buildings with dark turquoise trim. An archway of whale bones welcomes you in. The compound has everything you could possibly think of and more: a dance floor, an art gallery, a candle factory, four greenhouses, six solar panels, and access to a small waterfall that provides constant running water.

It has its own waste management system

The couple has even figured out their own waste management system. “It’s the most common question we’re asked,” Adams says. They installed a floating tank to, in Adams’ words, “deal with the affluence.” If they wanted to, King and Adams could completely self-sustain on Freedom Cove without ever needing to go into the city.

It was inspired by nature

As artists, King and Adams always drew inspiration from nature. Visitors are greeted by two large whale ribs that form the entrance. Artists Catherine King and Wayne Adams have called Freedom Cove home since 1992.Visitors are greeted by two large whale ribs that form the entrance. Artists Catherine King and Wayne Adams have called Freedom Cove home since 1992.Adams is a carver, using found elements in nature – like feathers and bones – to create his works. King is an artist, dancer and a natural healer, having studied homeopathy. But why live off the grid?”I wanted to be a successful, wealthy artist, live in Tofino and have a studio in the wilderness, like all good rich artists should,” Adams says. “I was hoping to make a lot more money as an artist. We could never buy real estate, so we had to make our own.”A call from nature pushed them to make their dreams a reality.

It was the result of an accident

After staying in a friend’s cabin in Cypress Bay, a large storm blew wood onto the property. King and Adams gathered the wood and used it to build the bones of what would become their future home.”I guess we were being given a sign that this is the time to begin,” Adams recalls. As they continued to further grow their home, the couple followed with their precedent of only using recycled and salvaged materials. Thanks to a piece of Plexiglass in their living room, Adams is able to fish from the comfort of his couch.
Thanks to a piece of Plexiglass in their living room, Adams is able to fish from the comfort of his couch. Many parts were gathered from loggers and fishermen in town. Adams would trade them art for whatever they had in their backyard, whether that was old fish farms or floats. A piece of Plexiglass scrounged up from the Victoria Hockey Rink forms a clear glass floor in their living room, which Adams can lift up to fish from the comfort of his couch.

It began as a sort of ‘downsizing’

Prior to Freedom Cove, the couple lived in an apartment in Tofino. They call their move into nature a “deceleration process.” “We had all kinds of things like food processors and items that would require a lot of electricity,” King remembers. “We gave them away to people and unloaded a lot of things in preparation.” They had no choice. The first iteration of their floating home had no running water and no power.Today, their day-to-day is quite a bit different to what it was in Tofino. “Living out here, you can’t just get instant anything,” King says. “We can’t just order a pizza … we can’t just go to the corner store … You have to do the work to get what you want, if you want it.”

It’s more than just home, they say

Doing that work is an ongoing process of learning, changing and growing. King starts her day by sweeping and shaking out the carpets. “In the wilderness, there’s always a lot of dirt and dust,” she says. The floating compound houses a dance floor, an art gallery, a candle factory, four greenhouses, six solar panels, and a small waterfall that provides constant running water.
The floating compound houses a dance floor, an art gallery, a candle factory, four greenhouses, six solar panels, and a small waterfall that provides constant running water. She then waters her thousands of plants and vegetable gardens – all germinated from seeds – and rows out in her canoe to gather seaweed for compost. Adams begins by gathering firewood and starting a fire to make sure the house is heated.They both work on building new components for their home. “It is a project,” King says. “It is a project in growing food to provide for the family. It is an art project … It is a project to have a space to move, to dance, to play music, to do things spontaneously that you couldn’t just do in the same way if you were in the city.”

Their neighbors are … unusual

And while they may not have any human neighbors for miles, the couple still has plenty of company. “We have some resident crows here who are part of the family,” Adams says. “We know all the birds here.””We have named Harry the heron, Sylvie the seal,” King adds. “Gertrude and Heathcliff the seagulls.””I had lived in the big city, I knew what that was like,” King says. “I really needed the peace of the wilderness.” Twenty-nine years later, that’s still the greatest draw of their home. “Going into a city is just shocking in the sound department,” King says. “I get kind of jangled up inside … the noise starts to get to me, I find it’s easy for me to lose my center.””We have carved a piece of the world out for ourselves here,” King says. “We can live uniquely, differently than anyone else on the planet.”But, how about seasickness?”I don’t get seasick,” Adams says. “When I go to town, I get land-sick.”

Posted in Where to Be or Not to Be | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Electrify ships with batteries?

Preface. You’d need 100,000 metric tons of batteries taking 40% of cargo space to go from Asia to Europe in 31 days on an 18,000 TEU container ship, and it is hard to imagine how or how long it would take to recharge these batteries. In comparison, the same ship just needs 4,650 metric tons of diesel fuel.

At some point of oil decline, wooden sailing vessels will come back in style. It’s well past time to plant more forests in anticipation, since trees take decades to grow, and world oil production probably peaked in 2018. Forests also remove CO2, probably more than batteries when their full life cycle of mining, fabrication, and so on are considered.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Smil, V. 2019. Electric container ships are stuck on the horizon. Batteries still can’t scale up to power the world’s biggest vessels. IEEE spectrum.

Just about everything you wear or use around the house once sat in steel boxes on ships whose diesel engines propel them from Asia, emitting particulates and carbon dioxide. Surely, you would think, we can do better.

After all, we’ve had electric locomotives for more than a century and high-speed electric trains for more than half a century, and recently we have been expanding the global fleet of electric cars. Why not get electric container ships? Actually, the first one should begin to operate this year: the Yara Birkeland, built by Marin Teknikk, in Norway, is not only the world’s first electric-powered, zero-emissions container ship but also the first autonomous commercial vessel.

But don’t write off giant diesel-powered container ships and their critical role in a globalized economy just yet. Here is a back-of-the-envelope calculation that explains why.

Containers come in different sizes, but most are the standard twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU)—rectangular prisms 6.1 meters (20 feet) long and 2.4 meters wide. The first small container ships of the 1960s carried mere hundreds of TEUs; now Maersk’s Triple-E class ships load 18,000 TEUs, and OOCL Hong Kong holds the record, at 21,413. At the “super slow steaming,” fuel-saving speed of 16 knots, these ships can make the journey from Hong Kong to Hamburg in 31 days.

Now look at the Yara Birkeland. It will carry just 120 TEU, its service speed will be 6 knots, its longest intended operation will be 30 nautical miles—between Herøya and Larvik, in Norway—and its batteries will deliver 7 to 9 megawatt hours. Today’s state-of-the-art diesel container vessels thus carry 150 times as many boxes over distances 400 times as long at speeds three to four times as fast as the pioneering electric ship can handle.

What would it take to make an electric ship that can carry 18,000 TEUs? In a 31-day trip, today’s efficient diesel vessel burns 4,650 metric tons of fuel (bunker or diesel), each ton packing 42 gigajoules. That’s an energy density of about 11,700 watt-hours per kilogram, versus 300 Wh/kg for today’s lithium-ion batteries, a nearly 40-fold difference.

The total fuel demand for the trip is about 195 terajoules, or 54 gigawatt-hours. Large diesels (and those in the ships are the largest we have) are about 50 percent efficient, hence their useful propulsive energy demand is about 27 GWh. To match that demand, large electric motors operating at 90 percent efficiency would need about 30 GWh of electricity.

Load the ship with today’s best commercial Li-ion batteries (300 Wh/kg) and still it would have to carry about 100,000 metric tons of them to go nonstop from Asia to Europe in 31 days. Those batteries alone would take up about 40 percent of maximum cargo capacity, an economically ruinous proposition, never mind the difficulties involved in charging and operating the ship. And even if we push batteries to an energy density of 500 Wh/kg sooner than might be expected, an 18,000-TEU vessel would still need nearly 60,000 metric tons of them for a long intercontinental voyage at a relatively slow speed.

The conclusion is obvious. To have an electric ship whose batteries and motors weighed no more than the fuel (about 5,000 metric tons) and the diesel engine (about 2,000 metric tons) in today’s large container vessels, we would need batteries with an energy density more than 10 times as high as today’s best Li-ion units.

That’s a tall order indeed: In the past 70 years the energy density of the best commercial batteries hasn’t even quadrupled.

Posted in Ships and Barges, Transportation What To Do | Tagged , , , , , | 6 Comments

Megadrought invades the West

Preface. Mother Nature has had enough and is biting us back. Climate change will increase the chance of a Southwest megadrought that lasts longer than those in the past.

Keep up with the latest drought news at the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Williams AP, et al. 2020. Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought. Science 368: 314-318

The drought in nine U.S. states, from Oregon and Montana down through California to New Mexico, lasted from 2000 to 2018 and was among the most severe to strike the region in the last 1,200 years, a new study finds. In the past megadroughts lasted from 50 to 90 years, and the hotter temperatures of today could make this and future droughts even worse.

Tree ring–based reconstructions of past climate from 1586 sites in the Western U.S. reveal just one drier 19-year period: a powerful “megadrought” from 1575 to 1593 that may have contributed to the abandonment of Anasazi from their settlements in Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Utah.  Plus caused a faster, more devasting spread of disease brought by Spanish conquistadors.

The 16th century megadrought coincided with a powerful La Niña event.  And in the last two decades there’ve been more La Nina than El nino years. 

But we can’t blame it entirely on La Nina.

It’s up to half due to climate change and rising temperatures.  Hot air holds more moisture which it absorbs from shrubs, trees and the ground, drying them out. It also reduces snowpack and river flows, and increases wildfire seasons.  Climate change makes the difference between a manageable drought and severe consequences, and makes it more likely this megadrought will continue.

So much groundwater was used to cope that the region’s safety net is mostly gone.  There’s a 50% chance Lake Mead will dry up by 2050 and a 10% chance it will dry up by 2021.

If this turns into a long megadrought it would be catastrophic for California’s 40 million people, farm production cut in half, and ecosystems suffer the most of all.

And the population of the Southwest continues to grow exponentially.

***

Likely future consequences:

Escobar, H. Feb 20, 2015. Drought triggers alarms in Brazil’s biggest metropolis. Science 347: 812. Driven by a mysterious atmospheric anomaly, a 2-year-long drought has triggered a crippling water crisis in southeast Brazil, a region of 85 million people that includes the nation’s biggest metropolis, São Paulo. The São Paulo government has reduced the water pressure in its mains, which regularly leaves faucets running dry. And it is now taking a carrot-and-stick approach to water usage, financially rewarding those who conserve and fining those who waste. Barring a sudden reversal of meteorological misfortune, officials are contemplating drastic rationing that would deprive millions of households of water for up to 5 days a week. “We are talking about the possible collapse of our most important water supplies.” Some are bracing for rioting. “There is a real risk of social convulsion,” warns José Galizia Tundisi, a hydrologist with the Brazilian Academy of Sciences.

A ‘megadrought’ will grip U.S. in the coming decades, NASA researchers say. Researchers from NASA and Cornell and Columbia universities warned of an 80% chance of mega-droughts lasting up to 40 years in the southwest and central USA, with major water shortages. This dries out vegetation, which can lead to monster wildfires in like recent fires in southern Arizona and parts of California.

 

 

Posted in Drought & Collapse | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments

Megan Siebert at REALgnd.org “What to do”

Preface. This is what I saw on December 12, 2020. To see a more up-to-date list go to the Real GND website: https://www.realgnd.org/recommendations

If you’d like to know how to fund these measures, then go here. To take action, go here.

Since what I write is such devastating news to people who stumbled on this on a search, or who recently lost their energy blindness, I feel obligated to have a “What To Do” category. I was devastated for months after reading about Hubbert’s Curve in 2000 on top of already having read “Limits to Growth” and “Overshoot” decades earlier. There are actions to be taken to get through the bottleneck, and you will meet interesting and wonderful people along your journey while you learn new skills.

The “Real Green New Deal” site describes itself as “a top-down and bottom-up approach to the energy descent transformation, covering actions that governments and individuals can take. We focus predominantly on policy recommendations for government since creating change from within the system would be the most effectual and since individual behavior is constrained to such a large degree by the current system.

But we simultaneously recognize that it is the actions of everyday people that influence the governments we institute, whether through who we vote for, what information or rhetoric we chose to accept and act upon, what we do or don’t push back against, or how we respond on an individual level to the chronic psychological afflictions imposed by today’s dysfunctional world.

We suggest an initial set of recommendations – along with how to pay for them – to be pursued now, ahead of the more specific and likely radically transformative recommendations contained in the final Action Plan. Some echo those that have grown in recent popularity while others are less common or perhaps novel.”

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

***

Population

  • Enact a national one-child policy, encouraging the global community to do the same
  • Make all forms of birth control (including those for men) free, and in the case of non-surgical forms, available over the counter
  • Make abortion free and widely available
  • Pay women/couples a significant financial incentive to have one child or none
  • Educate children and adults alike about the harmful impacts of overpopulation and its central role in our overshoot crisis, shifting from a human-centric view of the world to an inclusive view that honors and respects all life
  • Replace the taboo surrounding population with a moral imperative to make it a front-and-center social topic
  • Given our moral responsibility for global restitution, provide financial assistance to countries who seek it in order to help enact similar policies

Empire

  • Close all overseas military bases
  • Cease all overseas military operations
  • Stop military funding and arms sales to foreign countries
  • Close unnecessary domestic military bases
  • Reduce the size of our armed forces
  • Abandon the use of Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMFs) in exchange for official declarations of war by Congress, as is its constitutional responsibility
  • Dissolve NATO
  • End contracting of military and defense-related products and services to private companies

Democracy

  • GET MONEY OUT OF POLITICS and establish 100% publicly funded elections at all levels of government
  • Enact ranked-choice-voting
  • End voter discrimination laws and constitutional eviscerations
  • Undo gerrymandering
  • Increase voting access (e.g. Automatic Voter Registration in every state, mail-in ballots in every state, national holidays for elections)
  • Ban electronic voting machines
  • Eliminate the Electoral College
  • Establish 100% public funding for the media

Equality of Treatment & Opportunity

  • Make corporations actually pay their taxes, potentially increasing their rates
  • Shut down overseas tax havens
  • End subsidies to harmful industries
  • Break up monopolies
  • Enact a fairer tax code in which average people pay less and the very wealthy pay more
  • Increase the minimum wage to $25/hour
  • Enact Medicare-for-All
  • Forgive all student loans and make higher education free
  • End the war on drugs, pardon all drug-related offenders in prison, and decriminalize low-level possession of all illegal drugs
  • Issue financial reparations to the African American and Native American communities

Money and Finance

  • Put an end to interest-bearing debt
  • Ban the financial markets that “Wall Street” has become a symbol for, allowing instead for community-level capital raising
  • Abolish the Federal Reserve (a private corporation accountable to no one) and absorb its functions back into Congress, as dictated by the Constitution

Infrastructure

Place a moratorium on major infrastructure projects in light of:

  • The significant drawbacks of so-called renewable technologies
  • The need to re-design infrastructure in a highly decentralized, self-sufficient way with all life cycle needs (energy production, water acquisition, and waste treatment) handled on-site
  • The likelihood that many technologies and conveniences we enjoy today will not be possible in the energy and resource constrained future we imminently face

Consumption & pollution

  • Nationalize fossil fuel companies and establish a plan for phase-out
  • Ban the exploration of new fossil fuel reserves (i.e. oil, shale, gas) and the development of new extraction sites
  • Fine heavily toxic industrial processes
  • Ban factory farming
  • Offer significant financial incentives for the conversion of monoculture operations to polyculture regimes that are small-scale, humane, free of fossil fuel inputs, and implement rigorous water conservation methods
  • Provide legal and financial incentives to ensure seed conservation and ban activities that threaten it
  • Offer financial incentives for the expansion of hemp farming
  • Offer financial incentives to businesses that source local products
  • Fine major businesses that don’t make easily repairable products
  • Place a tax on companies that extract metals and water
  • Terminate so-called free trade agreements
  • Invest in sailing ship companies and financially incentivize their use for international transportation

Ecosystem health

Endorse and begin implementing the Nature Needs Half proposal, which calls for protecting 50% of the planet by 2030 using an ecoregion approach

Significantly increase funding for ecosystem restoration projects

Individual Action

Engage in the inner transformation that goes hand-in-hand with transforming the outer world, for example

  • Cultivate critical, independent thinking that inoculates against propaganda and manufactured consent
  • Question and examine your mental models and change them when confronted with compelling information
  • Spend as much time in nature and connecting with the non-human world as possible
  • Develop practices that help you slow down, relax, and connect with the stillness and wisdom within

Learn as many self-sufficiency skills as possible and do whatever you can to be as fossil fuel free as possible, whether on a household or community level

Engage in strategic, direct action to impel system change

Posted in Advice, Birth Control, Population | Tagged | 11 Comments

Millions in danger of floods on Mississippi and Missouri

Preface. Here’s something for you young folks considering “where to be” after energy collapse. Flooding is a huge consideration. My great grandfather was a doctor in Oklahoma who saw many lose their homes and farms from floods and die from water diseases afterwards. If there were one lesson he wanted to pass on to us it was “don’t live in a flood plain!”

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

***

Cusick D. 2020. Portions of Mississippi and Missouri Rivers Are Most Endangered in U.S. Scientific American.

Climate change and poor floodplain management have imperiled nearby communities, a nonprofit report says

Two of the nation’s essential commercial waterways, the Mississippi and Missouri, face extraordinary risk from climate change and associated flooding, a new report from the nonprofit American Rivers says.

In its updated list of “America’s Most Endangered Rivers,” the group says marked increases in precipitation across the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri rivers, combined with poor floodplain management, have placed millions of people and a multibillion-dollar economy in peril within the two basins.

The Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, on the group’s 2020 list of most imperiled waterways. They also sustained some of the greatest property damage and crop losses from last year’s record river floods.

“Mixing poor river management with climate change has created a recipe for disaster,” Bob Irvin, the group’s president and chief executive officer, said in a statement. “Lives, businesses and property are at risk. It’s time for our leaders to prioritize solutions that protect rivers and strengthen communities. Our health and safety depend on it.”

The report attributes much of the responsibility for the rivers’ condition to the Army Corps of Engineers and state and local agencies tasked with managing the floodplain.

Along both the Upper Mississippi and Missouri rivers, local levee boards wield substantial authority over agricultural levees and other river control measures. While the Army Corps is tasked with permitting such work, critics have long argued the agency has done a poor job of regulating such levees.

With respect to the Lower Missouri, American Rivers said the Missouri, which joins the Upper Mississippi north of St. Louis, “is one of the most controlled waterways in our nation” and that “artificial channels, levees and dams vainly attempt to control flood damages.”

“Right now, we’re on a collision course with climate change and poor river management. Unless we embrace better solutions like giving the river room to flood safely, we’re going to see increasingly severe disasters,” Eileen Shader, director of river restoration for American Rivers, said in a statement.

Allen Marshall, an Army Corps spokesman in the agency’s Rock Island District office, said he could not comment on the issue of climate change or criticisms that the agency has failed to properly regulate levees.

American Rivers also called for the completion of a federal-state comprehensive study of the Upper Mississippi called the “Keys to the River.” Officials said the “keys” study will offer a more holistic approach and management strategy for the river and draw input from a broader group of stakeholders—including municipalities, navigation interests, water and wastewater utilities, farmers, sportsmen, and other recreational users.

All those sectors suffered major losses from the 2019 floods, a $20 billion catastrophe, according to an recent analysis based on NOAA and reinsurance industry data and released by the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative.

“I think one of the big wake-up calls with last year’s flood event was the duration of it and the realization that this is our future,” said Olivia Dorothy, Upper Mississippi River Basin director for American Rivers. “We really need to think about floods of this magnitude becoming a permanent fixture rather than a temporary situation.”

Kirsten Wallace, executive director of the Upper Mississippi River Basin Association, which represents the governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin, agreed the basin faces multiple problems, including from climate change.

“I think the overall call for urgency is important, so we’re glad that American Rivers is making that,” Wallace said. “We also recognize that the Upper Mississippi needs more money and more resources” to address major issues.

But, Wallace said, it remains unclear how climate change compares with other problems such as floodplain conversion for commercial and residential development, and the use of tile drainage systems that shed water off farm fields into local streams.

“I think the constant flooding is compelling people to talk to each other and to think of our system plan as bigger than any one stakeholder,” she said.

Wallace said progress in solving common problems is also hindered by a piecemeal management approach among multiple levels of government. Such approaches often pit stakeholders against one another, resulting in stasis and finger-pointing.

“You first need to get all these factions to agree to a fast-forward,” she said. “They need to put down their guard and trust in someone or something. … It’s a really fine balance that we have to strike going forward.”

American Rivers said stakeholders on the Missouri and Mississippi rivers could learn from California’s Central Valley, where a nature-based approach to flood control is delivering multiple benefits, from improved water quality to restoration of habitat and parks. Examples include setting levees back from the river to allow floodwaters to safely spread out and breaching levees in strategic areas to reconnect the river with its floodplain.

Other waterways on the 2020 endangered list include the Big Sunflower River in Mississippi, where the Army Corps is considering a massive water diversion project known as the Yazoo Pumps, and a half-dozen rivers threatened by mining and dam projects. Four of the 10 listed rivers are threatened by mining, American Rivers said, including the South Fork Salmon River in Idaho and the Okefenokee Swamp in Georgia and Florida.

Reprinted from Climatewire

Posted in Climate Change, Floods, Where to Be or Not to Be | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Where do we come from, who are we, and where are we going?

Preface.  This is a book of review of The Social Conquest of Earth, in which E. O. Wilson answers these questions.  Although tribes have invented thousands of creation myths since paleolithic times, Wilson finally has written a book explaining our true creation myth.   

We are shaped by both individual and group selection, which forever traps us between the conflict of the poorer and better angels of our nature. Individual selection is responsible for much of what we call sin, while group selection is responsible for the greater part of virtue. 

It is fortunate that we are intrinsically imperfectible, because in a constantly changing world, we need the flexibility that only imperfection provides.

Below are some of my kindle notes. This is one of the most profound books you could ever read, and I leave so much out that I hope you’ll simply have to buy the book, and perhaps pass it on to increase the Enlightenment and diminish superstition.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

***

Wilson, E. O. 2012. The Social Conquest of Earth. Liveright.

There is no grail more elusive or precious in the life of the mind than the key to understanding the human condition. It has always been the custom of those who seek it to explore the labyrinth of myth: for religion, the myths of creation and the dreams of prophets; for philosophers, the insights of introspection and reasoning based upon them; for the creative arts, statements based upon a play of the senses.

Humanity today is like a waking dreamer, caught between the fantasies of sleep and the chaos of the real world.

We have created a Star Wars civilization, with Stone Age emotions, medieval institutions, and godlike technology. We thrash about. We are terribly confused by the mere fact of our existence, and a danger to ourselves and to the rest of life. Religion will never solve this great riddle.

Since Paleolithic times each tribe—of which there have been countless thousands—invented its own creation myth. During this long dreamtime of our ancestors, supernatural beings spoke to shamans and prophets. They identified themselves to the mortals variously as God, a tribe of Gods, a divine family, the Great Spirit, the Sun, ghosts of the forebears, supreme serpents, hybrids of sundry animals, chimeras of men and beasts, omnipotent sky spiders—anything, everything that could be conjured by the dreams, hallucinogens, and fertile imaginations of the spiritual leaders.

They were shaped in part by the environments of those who invented them. In Polynesia, gods pried the sky apart from the ground and sea, and the creation of life and humanity followed. In the desert-dwelling patriarchies of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam, prophets conceived, not surprisingly, a divine, all-powerful patriarch who speaks to his people through sacred scripture.

The creation stories gave the members of each tribe an explanation for their existence. It made them feel loved and protected above all other tribes. In return, their gods demanded absolute belief and obedience. And rightly so. The creation myth was the essential bond that held the tribe together. It provided its believers with a unique identity, commanded their fidelity, strengthened order, vouchsafed law, encouraged valor and sacrifice, and offered meaning to the cycles of life and death. No tribe could long survive without the meaning of its existence defined by a creation story. The option was to weaken, dissolve, and die. In the early history of each tribe, the myth therefore had to be set in stone.

The discovery of the origin and meaning of humanity might explain the origin and meaning of myths, hence the core of organized religion. Can these two worldviews ever be reconciled? The answer, to put the matter honestly and simply, is no. They cannot be reconciled. Their opposition defines the difference between science and religion, between trust in empiricism and belief in the supernatural.

Thinking about thinking is the core process of the creative arts, but it tells us very little about how we think the way we do, and nothing of why the creative arts originated in the first place. Consciousness, having evolved over millions of years of life-and-death struggle, and moreover because of that struggle, was not designed for self-examination. It was designed for survival and reproduction. Conscious thought is driven by emotion; to the purpose of survival and reproduction, it is ultimately and wholly committed. The intricate distortions of the mind may be transmitted by the creative arts in fine detail, but they are constructed as though human nature never had an evolutionary history. Their powerful metaphors have brought us no closer to solving the riddle than did the dramas and literature of ancient Greece.

What science promises, and has already supplied in part, is the following. There is a real creation story of humanity, and one only, and it is not a myth.  It answers the questions of where we came from and what we are.

The first question is why advanced social life exists at all, and has occurred so rarely in the history of life. The second is the identity of the driving forces that brought it into existence.

These problems can be solved by bringing together information from multiple disciplines, ranging from molecular genetics, neuroscience, and evolutionary biology to archaeology, ecology, social psychology, and history. To test any such theory of complex process, it is useful to bring into the light those other social conquerors of Earth, the highly social ants, bees, wasps, and termites, and I will do so. They are needed for perspective in developing the theory of social evolution. I realize I can be easily misinterpreted by putting insects next to people. Apes are bad enough, you might say, but insects?

Human beings create cultures by means of malleable languages. We invent symbols that are intended to be understood among ourselves, and we thereby generate networks of communication many orders of magnitude greater than that of any animal. We have conquered the biosphere and laid waste to it like no other species in the history of life.

We are an evolutionary chimera, living on intelligence steered by the demands of animal instinct. This is the reason we are mindlessly dismantling the biosphere and, with it, our own prospects for permanent existence.

A vast array of plant and animal species formed intimate symbioses with the social insects, accepting them as partners. A large percentage came to depend on them entirely for survival, variously as prey, symbionts, scavengers, pollinators, or turners of the soil. Overall, the pace of evolution of ants and termites was slow enough to be balanced by counter-evolution in the rest of life. As a result, these insects were not able to tear down the rest of the terrestrial biosphere by force of numbers, but became vital elements of it. The ecosystems they dominate today are not only sustainable but dependent on them.

In sharp contrast, human beings of the single species Homo sapiens emerged in the last several hundred thousand years and spread around the world only during the last sixty thousand years. There was not time for us to coevolve with the rest of the biosphere. Other species were not prepared for the onslaught. This shortfall soon had dire consequences for the rest of life.

Wherever humans saturated wildlands, biodiversity was returned to the paucity of its earliest period half a billion years previously. The rest of the living world could not coevolve fast enough to accommodate the onslaught of a spectacular conqueror that seemed to come from nowhere, and it began to crumble from the pressure.

Even by strictly technical definition as applied to animals, Homo sapiens is what biologists call “eusocial,” meaning group members containing multiple generations and prone to perform altruistic acts as part of their division of labor.

The necessity for fine-graded evaluation by alliance members meant that the pre-human ancestors had to achieve eusociality in a radically different way from the instinct-driven insects. The pathway to eusociality was charted by a contest between selection based on the relative success of individuals within groups versus relative success among groups. The strategies of this game were written as a complicated mix of closely calibrated altruism, cooperation, competition, domination, reciprocity, defection, and deceit. To play the game the human way, it was necessary for the evolving populations to acquire an ever higher degree of intelligence. They had to feel empathy for others, to measure the emotions of friend and enemy alike, to judge the intentions of all of them, and to plan a strategy for personal social interactions. As a result, the human brain became simultaneously highly intelligent and intensely social. It had to build mental scenarios of personal relationships rapidly, both short-term and long-term. Its memories had to travel far into the past to summon old scenarios and far into the future to imagine the consequences of every relationship.  

Thus was born the human condition, selfish at one time, selfless at another, the two impulses often conflicted. How did Homo sapiens reach this unique place in its journey through the great maze of evolution? The answer is that our destiny was foreordained by two biological properties of our distant ancestors: large size and limited mobility.

While eusocial species can dominate the insect world in terms of numbers of individuals, they had to rely on small brains and pure instinct for their conquest. Furthermore, and fundamentally, they were too small to ignite and control fire.

Mammals, especially carnivores, have much larger territories to defend when they settle down to build a nest. Wherever they travel, they are likely to encounter rivals. Females cannot store sperm in their bodies. They must find a male and mate for each parturition. Should the opportunities and pressures of the environment make social grouping profitable, it must be done with personal bonds and alliances based on intelligence and memory. To summarize to this point on the two social conquerors of Earth, the physiology and life cycle in the ancestors of the social insects and those of humans differed fundamentally in the evolutionary pathways followed to the formation of advanced societies.

In every game of evolutionary chance, played from one generation to the next, a very large number of individuals must live and die. The number, however, is not countless. A rough estimate can be made of it, providing at least a plausible order-of-magnitude guess. For the entire course of evolution leading from our primitive mammalian forebears of a hundred million years ago to the single lineage that threaded its way to become the first Homo sapiens, the total number of individuals it required might have been one hundred billion.

The first preadaptation was the aforementioned large size and relative immobility that predetermined the trajectory of mammalian evolution, as distinct from that of the social insects. The second preadaptation in the human-bound timeline was the specialization of the early primates, 70 to 80 million years ago, to life in the trees. The most important feature evolved in this change was hands and feet built for grasping. Moreover, their shape and muscles were better suited for swinging from branches, rather than merely grasping them for support. Their efficiency was increased by the simultaneous appearance of opposable thumbs and great toes. It was increased further by modification of the finger and toe tips into flat nails, as opposed to sharp down curving claws of the kind possessed by most other kinds of arboreal mammals. In addition, the palms and soles were covered by cutaneous ridges that aided in grasping; and they were supplied with pressure receptors that enhanced the sense of touch. Thus equipped, the early primate could use its hand to pick and tease apart pieces of fruit while pulling out individual seeds. The fingernail edges could both cut and scrape objects grasped by the hands. Such an animal, using its hind legs for locomotion, would be able to carry food for considerable distances.

The early prehuman primates evolved a larger brain. For the same reason, they came to depend more on vision and less on smell than did most other mammals. They acquired large eyes with color vision, which were placed forward on the head to give binocular vision and a better sense of depth. When walking, the pre-human primate did not move its hind legs well apart in parallel; instead, it alternated its legs almost in a single line, one foot placed in front of the other. The offspring, moreover, were fewer in number and required more time to develop.

When one line of these strange arboreal creatures evolved to live on the ground, as it happened in Africa, the next preadaptation was taken—one more fortunate turn in the evolutionary maze. Bipedalism was adopted, freeing the hands for other purposes.

The pre-humans, now distinguishable as a group of species called the australopithecines, took the trend to bipedal walking much farther. Their body as a whole was accordingly refashioned. The legs were lengthened and straightened, and the feet were elongated to create a rocking movement during locomotion. The pelvis was reformed into a shallow bowl to support the viscera, which now pressed toward the legs instead of being slung, ape-like, beneath the horizontal body.

The bipedal revolution was very likely responsible for the overall success of the australopithecine pre-humans—at least as measured by the diversity they achieved in body form, jaw musculature, and dentition.

Walking with arms swinging at the side in the new, australopith manner conferred speed at minimal energy cost, even as it inflicted back and knee problems in addition to the greater risk imposed by balancing the newly heavy globular head on a delicate vertical neck. For primates whose bodies had been originally crafted for life in the trees, the bipeds could run swiftly. But they could not match the four-legged animals they hunted as prey.

If the early humans, however, could not outsprint such animal Olympians, they could at least outlast them in a marathon. At some point, humans became long-distance runners. They needed only to commence a chase and track the prey for mile after mile until it was exhausted and could be overtaken. The pre-human body, thrusting itself off the ball of the foot with each step and holding a steady pace, evolved a high aerobic capacity. In time the body also shed all of its hair, except on the head and pubis and in the pheromone-producing armpits. It added sweat glands everywhere, allowing increased rapid cooling of the naked body surface.

Meanwhile, the forelimbs of the pre-human ancestors were redesigned for flexibility in the manipulation of objects. The arm, especially that of males, became efficient at throwing objects, including stones, and later spears as well, and so for the first time the pre-humans could kill at a distance. The advantage this ability gave them during conflict with other, less well-equipped groups must have been enormous.

The next step taken on the road to eusociality was the control of fire.  The roving pre-humans could not have failed to discover the importance of wildfires as a source of food. Moreover, they found some of the felled animals already cooked, with flesh easy to tear off and eat.

The use of fire was on the other hand forever denied to insects and other terrestrial invertebrates. They were physically too small to ignite tinder or carry a flaming object without becoming part of the fuel.

It was, of course, also denied aquatic animals

A Homo sapiens level of intelligence can arise only on land, whether here on Earth or on any other conceivable planet.

Why is a protected nest so important to eusociality?

The next step, and the decisive one for the origin of human eusociality, was the gathering of small groups at campsites. There is an a priori reason for believing campsites were the crucial adaptation on the path to eusociality: campsites are in essence nests made by human beings. All animal species that have achieved eusociality, without exception, at first built nests that they defended from enemies. They, as did their known antecedents, raised young in the nest, foraged away from it for food, and brought the bounty back to share with others.

Why is a protected nest so important? Because members of the group are forced to come together there. Required to explore and forage away from the nest, they must also return. Chimpanzees and bonobos occupy and defend territories, but wander through them while searching for food. Chimps and bonobos alternatively break into subgroups and re-aggregate. They advertise the discovery of fruit-laden trees by calling back and forth but do not share the fruit they pick. They occasionally hunt in small packs. Successful members of the pack share the meat among their fellow hunters, but charity mostly comes to an end there. Of greatest importance, the apes have no campfire around which to gather.

Carnivores at campsites are forced to behave in ways not needed by wanderers in the field. They must divide labor: some forage and hunt, others guard the campsite and young. They must share food, both vegetable and animal, in ways that are acceptable to all. Otherwise, the bonds that bind them will weaken. Further, the group members inevitably compete with one another, for status of a larger share of food, for access to an available mate, and for a comfortable sleeping place. All of these pressures confer an advantage on those able to read the intention of others, grow in the ability to gain trust and alliance, and manage rivals. Social intelligence was therefore always at a high premium. A sharp sense of empathy can make a huge difference, and with it an ability to manipulate, to gain cooperation, and to deceive. To put the matter as simply as possible, it pays to be socially smart. Without doubt, a group of smart pre-humans could defeat and displace a group of dumb, ignorant pre-humans, as true then as it is today for armies, corporations, and football teams.

Altricial bird species—those that rear helpless young—have a similar preadaptation. In a few species young adults remain with the parents for a while to help care for their siblings. But no bird species has gone on to evolve full-blown eusocial societies. Possessing only a beak and claws, they have never been equipped to handle tools with any degree of sophistication, or fire at all. Wolves and African wild dogs hunt in coordinated packs in the same manner as chimpanzees and bonobos, and African wild dogs also dig out dens, where one or two females have a large litter.

These remarkable canids, although having adopted the rarest and most difficult preadaptation, have not reached full eusociality, with a worker caste or even ape-level intelligence. They cannot make tools. They lack grasping hands and soft-tipped fingers. They remain four-legged, dependent on their carnassial teeth and fur-sheathed claws.

These hominid primates of two million years ago were diverse, yet no more so than the antelopes and circopithecoid monkeys teeming around them. They were rich in potential—as our own presence bears witness. Nevertheless, from one generation to the next their continued existence was precarious. Their populations were sparse in comparison with the large herbivores, and they were less abundant than some of the human-sized carnivores that hunted them.

Smaller mammals on average were able to buffer themselves better than large mammals, including humans, against extreme environmental changes. Their methods included burrowing, hibernation, and prolonged torpor, adaptations not available to large mammals. Paleontologists have determined that the turnover in species is still higher in mammals that form social groups. They have pointed out that social groups tend to stay apart from each other during breeding, thus creating smaller populations, making them subject to both quicker genetic divergence and higher extinction rates.

As continental glaciers advanced south across Eurasia, Africa suffered a period of prolonged drought and cooling. Much of the continent was covered by arid grassland and desert. In these times of stress the death of a few thousand individuals, possibly even just a few hundred, could have snapped the line to Homo sapiens altogether.

What drove the hominins on through to larger brains, higher intelligence, and thence language-based culture? That, of course, is the question of questions.

One of the australopith species shifted to the consumption of meat. More precisely, it became omnivorous by adding meat to an already existing vegetable and fruit diet.

Homo habilis became smarter than the other hominins around them.

Perhaps, the traditional argument goes, the challenges of new environments gave an advantage to genetic types able to discover and use novel resources to avoid enemies, as well as the capacity to defeat competitors for food and space. Those genetic types were able to innovate and learn from their competitors. They were the survivors of hard times. The flexible species evolved larger brains. How well does this familiar innovation-adaptiveness describe other animal species? One analysis made of 600 bird species introduced by humans into parts of the world outside their native ranges, and hence into alien environments, seems to support the idea. Those species with larger brains relative to their body size were on average better able to establish themselves in the new environments. Further, there is evidence that it was done by greater intelligence and inventiveness.

Every other kind of animal known that evolved eusociality started with a protected nest from which forays can be made to collect food. Other species of relatively large animals that have advanced almost as far as ants into eusociality are the naked mole rats (Heterocephalus glaber) of East Africa. They, too, obey the protected-nest principle.

It seems now possible to draw a reasonably good explanation of why the human condition is a singularity, why the likes of it has occurred only once and took so long in coming. The reason is simply the extreme improbability of the pre-adaptations necessary for it to occur at all. Each of these evolutionary steps has been a full-blown adaptation in its own right. Each has required a particular sequence of one or more pre-adaptations that occurred previously. Homo sapiens is the only species of large mammal—thus large enough to evolve a human-sized brain—to have made every one of the required lucky turns in the evolutionary maze. The first preadaptation was existence on the land. Progress in technology beyond knapped stones and wooden shafts requires fire.

The second preadaptation was a large body size, of a magnitude attained in Earth’s history only by a minute percentage of land-dwelling animal species. If an animal at maturity is less than a kilogram in weight, its brain size would be too severely limited for advanced reasoning and culture. Even on land, its body would be unable to make and control fire. That is one reason why leafcutter ants, although the most complex of any species other than humans, and even though they practice agriculture in air-conditioned cities of their own instinctual devising, have made no significant further advance during the twenty million years of their existence. Next in line of pre-adaptations was the origin of grasping hands tipped with soft spatulate fingers that were evolved to hold and manipulate detached objects. This is the trait of primates that distinguishes them from all other land-dwelling mammals.

To use such hands and fingers effectively, candidate species on the path to eusociality had to free them from locomotion in order to manipulate objects easily and skillfully. That was accomplished early by the first prehominids who, as far back as when our presumed ancient forebear Ardipithecus, climbed out of the trees, stood up, and began walking entirely on hind legs.

Claws and fangs, the ordinary armamentaria of the species, are ill suited for the development of technology.  

The subsequent step—the next correct turn in the evolutionary maze—was a shift in diet to include a substantial amount of meat.  Theadvantages of cooperation in the harvesting of meat led to the formation of highly organized groups.

About a million years ago the controlled use of fire followed, a unique hominid achievement.  Meat, fire, and cooking, campsites lasting for more than a few days at a time, and thus persistent enough to be guarded as a refuge, marked the next vital step. Such a nest, as it can also be called, has been the precursor to the attainment of eusociality by all other known animals. With fireside campsites came a division of labor.

By the time of Homo erectus, all of the steps that led this species to eusociality, save the use of controlled fire, had also been followed by modern chimpanzees and bonobos. Thanks to our unique pre-adaptations, we were ready to leave these distant cousins far behind.

Even though tiny in biomass—all of its more than seven billion members could be log-stacked into a cube two kilometers on each edge—the new species had become a geophysical force. They had harnessed the energies of the sun and fossil fuel, diverted a large part of the fresh water for their own use, acidified the ocean, and changed the atmosphere to a potentially lethal state.

The origin of modern humanity was a stroke of luck—good for our species for a while, bad for most of the rest of life forever.

Kin selection says parents, offspring, and their cousins and other collateral relatives are bound by the coordination and unity of purpose made possible by selfless acts toward one another. Altruism actually benefits each group member on average because each altruist shares genes by common descent with most other members of its group. Due to the sharing with relatives, its sacrifice increases the relative abundance of these genes in the next generation. If the increase is greater than the average number lost by reducing the number of genes passed on through personal offspring, then the altruism is favored and a society can evolve. Individuals divide themselves into reproductive and nonreproductive castes as a manifestation in part of self-sacrificing behavior on behalf of kin.

The foundations of the general theory of inclusive fitness based on the assumptions of kin selection have crumbled, while evidence for it has grown equivocal at best. The beautiful theory never worked well anyway, and now it has collapsed. A new theory of eusocial evolution provides separate accounts for the origin of eusocial insects on the one hand and the origin of human societies on the other. In the case of ants and other eusocial invertebrates, the process is perceived as neither kin selection nor group selection, but individual-level selection, from queen (in the case of ants and other hymenopteran insects) to queen, with the worker caste being an extension of the queen phenotype. Evolution can proceed in this manner because in the early stages of colonial evolution the queen travels far away from her natal colony and creates the members of the colony on her own.

The creation of new groups by humans, at the present time and all the way back into prehistory, has been fundamentally different. Their evolutionary dynamics is driven by both individual and group selection.

The multilevel process was first anticipated by Darwin in The Descent of Man: if one man in a tribe, more sagacious than the others, invented a new snare or weapon, or other means of attack or defense, the plainest self-interest, without the assistance of much reasoning power, would prompt the other members to imitate him; and all would thus profit. The habitual practice of each new art must likewise in some slight degree strengthen the intellect. If the new invention were an important one, the tribe would increase in number, spread, and supplant other tribes. In a tribe thus rendered more numerous there would always be a rather better chance of the birth of other superior and inventive members. If such men left children to inherit their mental superiority, the chance of the birth of still more ingenious members would be somewhat better, and in a very small tribe decidedly better. Even if they left no children, the tribe would still include their blood-relations; and it has been ascertained by agriculturists that by preserving and breeding from the family of an animal, which when slaughtered was found to be valuable, the desired character has been obtained. Multilevel selection consists of the interaction between forces of selection that target traits of individual members and other forces of selection that target traits of the group as a whole. The new theory is meant to replace the traditional theory based on pedigree kinship or some comparable measure of genetic relatedness.

The precursors of Homo sapiens, formed well-organized groups that competed with one another for territory and other scarce resources. In general, it is to be expected that between-group competition affects the genetic fitness of each member (that is, the proportion of personal offspring it contributes to the group’s future membership), whether up or down. A person can die or be disabled, and lose his individual genetic fitness as a result of increased group fitness during, for example, a war or under the rule of an aggressive dictatorship. If we assume that groups are approximately equal to one another in weaponry and other technology, which has been the case for most of the time among primitive societies over hundreds of thousands of years, we can expect that the outcome of between-group competition is determined largely by the details of social behavior within each group in turn. These traits are the size and tightness of the group, and the quality of communication and division of labor among its members. Such traits are heritable to some degree; in other words, variation in them is due in part to differences in genes among the members of the group, hence also among the groups themselves. The genetic fitness of each member, the number of reproducing descendants it leaves, is determined by the cost exacted and benefit gained from its membership in the group. These include the favor or disfavor it earns from other group members on the basis of its behavior. The currency of favor is paid by direct reciprocity and indirect reciprocity, the latter in the form of reputation and trust. How well a group performs depends on how well its members work together, regardless of the degree by which each is individually favored or disfavored within the group.

The genetic fitness of a human being must therefore be a consequence of both individual selection and group selection. But this is true only with reference to the targets of selection. Whether the targets are traits of the individual working in its own interest, or interactive traits among group members in the interest of the group, the ultimate unit affected is the entire genetic code of the individual. If the benefit from group membership falls below that from solitary life, evolution will favor departure or cheating by the individual. Taken far enough, the society will dissolve. If personal benefit from group memberships rises high enough or, alternatively, if selfish leaders can bend the colony to serve their personal interests, the members will be prone to altruism and conformity. Because all normal members have at least the capacity to reproduce, there is an inherent and irremediable conflict in human societies between natural selection at the individual level and natural selection at the group level.

Alleles (the various forms of each gene) that favor survival and reproduction of individual group members at the expense of others are always in conflict with alleles of the same and alleles of other genes favoring altruism and cohesion in determining the survival and reproduction of individuals. Selfishness, cowardice, and unethical competition further the interest of individually selected alleles, while diminishing the proportion of altruistic, group-selected alleles. These destructive propensities are opposed by alleles predisposing individuals toward heroic and altruistic behavior on behalf of members of the same group. Group-selected traits typically take the fiercest degree of resolve during conflicts between rival groups. It was therefore inevitable that the genetic code prescribing social behavior of modern humans is a chimera. One part prescribes traits that favor success of individuals within the group. The other part prescribes the traits that favor group success in competition with other groups.

Natural selection at the individual level, with strategies evolving that contribute maximum number of mature offspring, has prevailed throughout the history of life. It typically shapes the physiology and behavior of organisms to suit a solitary existence, or at most to membership in loosely organized groups. The origin of eusociality, in which organisms behave in the opposite manner, has been rare in the history of life because group selection must be exceptionally powerful to relax the grip of individual selection. Only then can it modify the conservative effect of individual selection and introduce highly cooperative behavior into the physiology and behavior of the group members. The ancestors of ants and other hymenopterous eusocial insects (ants, bees, wasps) faced the same problem as those of humans. They finessed it by evolving extreme plasticity of certain genes, programmed so that the altruistic workers have the same genes for physiology and behavior as the mother queen, even though they differ drastically from the queen and among one another in these traits. Selection has remained at the individual level, queen to queen. Yet selection in the insect societies continues at the group level, with colony pitted against colony. This seeming paradox is easily resolved. As far as natural selection in most forms of social behavior is concerned, the colony is operationally only the queen and her phenotypic extension in the form of robot-like assistants. At the same time, group selection promotes genetic diversity among the workers in other parts of the genome to help protect the colony from disease. This diversity is provided by the male with whom each queen mates. In this sense, the genotype of an individual is a genetic chimera. It contains genes that do not vary among colony members, with castes being plastic forms created from the same genes, and genes that do vary among colony members as a shield against disease.

In mammals such a finesse was not possible, because their life cycle is fundamentally different from that of insects. In the key reproductive step of the mammal life cycle, the female is rooted to the territory of her origin. She cannot separate herself from the group in which she was born, unless she crosses over directly to a neighboring group—a common but tightly controlled event in both animals and humans. In contrast, the insect female can be mated, then carry the sperm like a portable male in her spermatheca long distances. She is able to start new colonies all by herself far from the nest of her birth. The overpowering of individual selection by group selection has not only been rare in mammals and other vertebrates; it has never been and will likely never be complete. The fundamentals of the mammalian life cycle and population structure prevent it. No insect-like social system can be created in the theater of mammalian social evolution.

The expected consequences of this evolutionary process in humans are the following:

• Intense competition occurs between groups, in many circumstances including territorial aggression.

• Group composition is unstable, because of the advantage of increasing group size accruing from immigration, ideological proselytization, and conquest, pitted against the opportunities to gain advantage by usurpation within the group and fission to create new groups.

• An unavoidable and perpetual war exists between honor, virtue, and duty, the products of group selection, on one side, and selfishness, cowardice, and hypocrisy, the products of individual selection, on the other side.

• The perfecting of quick and expert reading of intention in others has been paramount in the evolution of human social behavior.

• Much of culture, including especially the content of the creative arts, has arisen from the inevitable clash of individual selection and group selection.

In summary, the human condition is an endemic turmoil rooted in the evolution processes that created us. The worst in our nature coexists with the best, and so it will ever be. To scrub it out, if such were possible, would make us less than human.

To form groups, drawing visceral comfort and pride from familiar fellowship, and to defend the group enthusiastically against rival groups—these are among the absolute universals of human nature and hence of culture. Once a group has been established with a defined purpose, however, its boundaries are malleable. Families are usually included as subgroups, although they are frequently split by loyalties to other groups. The same is true of allies, recruits, converts, honorary inductees, and traitors from rival groups who have crossed over. Identity and some degree of entitlement are given each member of a group. Conversely, any prestige and wealth he may acquire lends identity and power to his fellow members.  

People must have a tribe. It gives them a name in addition to their own and social meaning in a chaotic world. It makes the environment less disorienting and dangerous. The social world of each modern human is not a single tribe, but rather a system of interlocking tribes, among which it is often difficult to find a single compass. People savor the company of like-minded friends, and they yearn to be in one of the best—a combat marine regiment, perhaps, an elite college, the executive committee of a company, a religious sect, a fraternity, a garden club—any collectivity that can be compared favorably with other, competing groups of the same category.

People around the world today, growing cautious of war and fearful of its consequences, have turned increasingly to its moral equivalent in team sports. Their thirst for group membership and superiority of their group can be satisfied with victory by their warriors in clashes on ritualized battlefields.  The fans are lifted by seeing the uniforms and symbols and battle gear of the team, the championship cups and banners on display, the dancing seminude maidens appropriately called cheerleaders. Some of the fans wear bizarre costumes and face makeup in homage to their team. They attend triumphant galas after victories. Many, especially of warrior and maiden age, shed all restraint to join in the spirit of the battle and the joyous mayhem afterward.

“Celts Supreme!” The social psychologist Roger Brown, who witnessed the aftermath, commented, “It was not just the players who felt supreme but all their fans. There was ecstasy in the North End. The fans burst out of the Garden and nearby bars, practically break dancing in the air, stogies lit, arms uplifted, voices screaming. The hood of a car was flattened, about thirty people jubilantly piled aboard, and the driver—a fan—smiled happily. An improvised slow parade of honking cars circled through the neighborhood. It did not seem to me that those fans were just sympathizing or empathizing with their team. They personally were flying high. On that night each fan’s self-esteem felt supreme; a social identity did a lot for many personal identities.” Brown then added an important point: “Identification with a sports team has in it something of the arbitrariness of the minimal groups. To be a Celtic fan you need not be born in Boston or even live there, and the same is true of membership on the team. As individuals, or with other group memberships salient, both fans and team members might be very hostile. So long as the Celtic membership was salient, however, all rode the waves together.”

Experiments conducted over many years by social psychologists have revealed how swiftly and decisively people divide into groups, and then discriminate in favor of the one to which they belong. Even when the experimenters created the groups arbitrarily, then labeled them so the members could identify themselves, and even when the interactions prescribed were trivial, prejudice quickly established itself. Whether groups played for pennies or identified themselves groupishly as preferring some abstract painter to another, the participants always ranked the out-group below the in-group. They judged their “opponents” to be less likable, less fair, less trustworthy, less competent. The prejudices asserted themselves even when the subjects were told the in-groups and out-groups had been chosen arbitrarily.

In its power and universality, the tendency to form groups and then favor in-group members has the earmarks of instinct. It could be argued that in-group bias is conditioned by early training to affiliate with family members and by encouragement to play with neighboring children. But even if such experience does play a role, it would be an example of what psychologists call prepared learning, the inborn propensity to learn something swiftly and decisively. If the propensity toward in-group bias has all these criteria, it is likely to be inherited and, if so, can be reasonably supposed to have arisen through evolution by natural selection. Other cogent examples of prepared learning in the human repertoire include language, incest avoidance, and the acquisition of phobias. If groupist behavior is truly an instinct expressed by inherited prepared learning, we might expect to find signs of it even in very young children. And exactly this phenomenon has been discovered by cognitive psychologists.

The elementary drive to form and take deep pleasure from in-group membership easily translates at a higher level into tribalism. People are prone to ethnocentrism. It is an uncomfortable fact that even when given a guilt-free choice, individuals prefer the company of others of the same race, nation, clan, and religion. They trust them more, relax with them better in business and social events, and prefer them more often than not as marriage partners. They are quicker to anger at evidence that an out-group is behaving unfairly or receiving undeserved rewards. And they grow hostile to any out-group encroaching upon the territory or resources of their in-group.

Literature and history are strewn with accounts of what happens at the extreme, as in the following from Judges 12: 5–6 in the Old Testament: The Gileadites captured the fords of the Jordan leading to Ephraim, and whenever a survivor of Ephraim said, “Let me go over,” the men of Gilead asked him, “Are you an Ephraimite?” If he replied, “No,” they said, “All right, say ‘Shibboleth.’ ” If he said, “Sibboleth,” because he could not pronounce the word correctly, they seized him and killed him at the fords of the Jordan. Forty-two thousand Ephraimites were killed at that time.

When in experiments black and white Americans were flashed pictures of the other race, their amygdalas, the brain’s center of fear and anger, were activated so quickly and subtly that the conscious centers of the brain were unaware of the response. The subject, in effect, could not help himself. When, on the other hand, appropriate contexts were added—say, the approaching black was a doctor and the white his patient—two other sites of the brain integrated with the higher learning centers, the cingulate cortex and the dorsolateral preferential cortex, lit up, silencing input through the amygdala. Thus different parts of the brain have evolved by group selection to create groupishness.

Our bloody nature, it can now be argued in the context of modern biology, is ingrained because group-versus-group was a principal driving force that made us what we are. In prehistory, group selection lifted the hominids that became territorial carnivores to heights of solidarity, to genius, to enterprise. And to fear. Each tribe knew with justification that if it was not armed and ready, its very existence was imperiled. Throughout history, the escalation of a large part of technology has had combat as its central purpose. Today, the calendars of nations are punctuated by holidays to celebrate wars won and to perform memorial services for those who died waging them. Public support is best fired up by appeal to the emotions of deadly combat,

Any excuse for a real war will do, so long as it is seen as necessary to protect the tribe. Hence the war against terrorism and axis of evil.  Remembrance of past horrors has no effect.

From April to June in 1994, killers from the Hutu majority in Rwanda set out to exterminate the Tutsi minority, which at that time ruled the country. In a hundred days of unrestrained slaughter by knife and gun, 800,000 people died, mostly Tutsi. The total Rwandan population was reduced by 10%. When a halt was finally called, two million Hutu fled the country, fearing retribution.

The immediate causes for the bloodbath were political and social grievances, but they all stemmed from one root cause: Rwanda was the most overcrowded country in Africa. For a relentlessly growing population, the per capita arable land was shrinking toward its limit. The deadly argument was over which tribe would own and control the whole of it.  Many of those who attacked their neighbors were promised the land of the Tutsi they killed.

Once a group has been split off and sufficiently dehumanized, any brutality can be justified, at any level, and at any size of the victimized group up to and including race and nation. Russia’s Great Terror under Stalin resulted in the deliberate starvation to death of more than three million Soviet Ukrainians during the winter of 1932–33. In 1937 and 1938, 681,692 executions were carried out for alleged “political crimes,” of which more than 90% were peasants considered resistant to collectivization. The U.S.S.R. as a whole soon itself suffered equally from the brutal Nazi invasion, the stated purpose of which was to subdue the “inferior” Slavs and make room for expansion of the racially “pure” Aryan peoples.

If no other reason is convenient for waging a war of territorial expansion, there has always been God. It was the will of God that brought the Crusaders to the Levant.

It should not be thought that war, often accompanied by genocide, is a cultural artifact of a few societies. Nor has it been an aberration of history, a result of the growing pains of our species’ maturation. Wars and genocide have been universal and eternal, respecting no particular time or culture. Since the end of the Second World War, violent conflict between states has declined drastically, owing in part to the nuclear standoff of the major powers (two scorpions in a bottle writ large). But civil wars, insurgencies, and state-sponsored terrorism continue unabated. Overall, big wars have been replaced around the world by small wars of the kind and magnitude more typical of hunter-gatherer and primitively agricultural societies. Civilized societies have tried to eliminate torture, execution, and the murder of civilians, but those fighting little wars do not comply.

If cooperative groups were more likely to prevail in conflicts with other groups, has the level of intergroup violence been sufficient to influence the evolution of human social behavior? The estimates of adult mortality in hunter-gatherer groups from the beginning of Neolithic times to the present, shown in the accompanying table, support that proposition.  Nonlethal violence is far higher in the chimps, occurring between a hundred and possibly a thousand times more often than in humans.

Males are more gregarious than females. They are also intensely status conscious, frequently engaging in displays that lead to fighting. They form coalitions with others and use a wide array of maneuvers and deceptions to exploit or altogether evade the dominance order. The patterns of collective violence in which young chimp males engage are remarkably similar to those of young human males. Aside from constantly vying for status, both for themselves and for their gangs, they tend to avoid open mass confrontations with rival troops, instead relying on surprise attacks. The purpose of raids made by the male gangs on neighboring communities is evidently to kill or drive out its members and acquire new territory.

Uganda’s Kibale National Park. The war, conducted over ten years, was eerily human-like. Every 10 to 14 days, patrols of up to 20 males penetrated enemy territory, moving quietly in single file, scanning the terrain from ground to the treetops, and halting cautiously at every surrounding noise. If a force larger than their own was encountered, the invaders broke rank and ran back to their own territory. When they encountered a lone male, however, they piled on him in a crowd and pummeled and bit him to death. When a female was encountered, they usually let her go. This latter tolerance was not a display of gallantry. If she carried an infant, they took it from her and killed and ate it.

There is no certain way to decide on the basis of existing knowledge whether chimpanzee and humans inherited their pattern of territorial aggression from a common ancestor or whether they evolved it independently in response to parallel pressures of natural selection and opportunities encountered in the African homeland. Humans and chimpanzees are intensely territorial. That is the apparent population control hardwired into their social systems.

I believe, however, that the evidence best fits the following sequence. The original limiting factor, which intensified with the introduction of group hunting for animal protein, was food. Territorial behavior evolved as a device to sequester the food supply. Expansive wars and annexation resulted in enlarged territories and favored genes that prescribe group cohesion, networking, and the formation of alliances. For hundreds of millennia, the territorial imperative gave stability to the small, scattered communities of Homo sapiens, just as they do today in the small, scattered populations of surviving hunter-gatherers. During this long period, randomly spaced extremes in the environment alternately increased and decreased the population size that could be contained within territories. These “demographic shocks” led to forced emigration or aggressive expansion of territory size by conquest, or both together. They also raised the value of forming alliances outside of kin-based networks in order to subdue other neighboring groups.

Ten thousand years ago, the Neolithic revolution began to yield vastly larger amounts of food from cultivated crops and livestock, allowing rapid growth in human populations. But that advance did not change human nature. People simply increased their numbers as fast as the rich new resources allowed. As food again inevitably became the limiting factor, they obeyed the territorial imperative. Their descendants have never changed. At the present time, we are still fundamentally the same as our hunter-gatherer ancestors, but with more food and larger territories. Region by region, recent studies show, the populations have approached a limit set by the supply of food and water. And so it has always been for every tribe, except for the brief periods after new lands were discovered and its indigenous inhabitants displaced or killed. The struggle to control vital resources continues globally, and it is growing worse. The problem arose because humanity failed to seize the great opportunity given it at the dawn of the Neolithic.

Homo erectus, with a culture advanced well beyond that of its apish ancestors, and more adaptable to new and difficult environments, expanded its range to become the first cosmopolitan primate. It failed to reach only the isolated continents of Australia and the New World and the far-flung archipelagoes of the Pacific Ocean. Its great range buffered the species against early extinction. One of its genetic lines acquired potential immortality by evolving into Homo sapiens. The ancestral Homo erectus still lives. It is us.

In combination, some of our traits are unique among all animals:

  • A productive language based on infinite permutations of arbitrarily invented words and symbols.
  • Music, comprising a wide array of sounds, also in infinite permutations and played in individually chosen mood-creating patterns; but, most definitively, with a beat.
  • Prolonged childhood, allowing extended learning periods under the guidance of adults.
  • Anatomical concealment of female genitalia and the abandonment of advertisement of ovulation, both combined with continuous sexual activity. The latter promotes female-male bonding and biparental care, which are needed through the long period of helplessness in early childhood.
  • Uniquely fast and substantial growth in the brain size during early development, increasing 3.3 times from birth to maturity.
  • Relatively slender body form, small teeth, and weakened jaw muscles, indicative of an omnivorous diet.
  • A digestive system specialized to eat foods that have been tenderized by cooking.

Perhaps the time has come, in light of this and other advances in human genetics, to adopt a new ethic of racial and hereditary variation, one that places value on the whole of diversity rather than on the differences composing the diversity. It would give proper measure to our species’ genetic variation as an asset, prized for the adaptability it provides all of us during an increasingly uncertain future. Humanity is strengthened by a broad portfolio of genes that can generate new talents, additional resistance to diseases, and perhaps even new ways of seeing reality. For scientific as well as for moral reasons, we should learn to promote human biological diversity for its own sake instead of using it to justify prejudice and conflict.

This scenario of slow initial advance by a very few followed by local population growth is supported by two lines of evidence assembled by independent groups of researchers during the past ten years. First is the great genetic diversity of present-day southern Africans, suggesting that only a small part of the whole African population participated in the breakout.

To envision more precisely how the out-of-Africa pattern began, between 135,000 and 90,000 years ago, a period of aridity gripped tropical Africa far more extreme than any that had been experienced for tens of millennia previously. The result was the forced retreat of early humanity to a much smaller range and its fall to a perilously low level in population. Death by starvation and tribal conflict, both of which were to become routine in later historical times, must have been widespread in prehistory. The size of the total Homo sapiens population on the African continent descended into the thousands, and for a long while the future conqueror species risked complete extinction.

Then, finally, the great drought eased, and from 90,000 to 70,000 years ago tropical forests and savanna slowly expanded back to their previous ranges. Human populations grew and spread with them. At the same time, other parts of the continent became more arid, and the Middle East as well. With intermediate levels of rainfall prevailing throughout most of Africa, an especially favorable window of opportunity opened for the demographic expansion of pioneer populations out of the continent altogether. In particular, the interval was long enough to maintain a corridor of continuous habitable terrain up the Nile to Sinai and beyond, bisecting the arid land and allowing a northward sweep of colonizing humans. A second possible route was eastward, across the Bab el Mandeb Strait onto the southern Arabian Peninsula. There followed the penetration of Homo sapiens into Europe by no later than 42,000 years before the present. Anatomically modern humans spread up the Danube River,

The question of exactly when anatomically modern Homo sapiens arrived in the New World, with its catastrophic impact on the virgin fauna and flora, has gripped the attention of anthropologists for many years.  From genetic and archaeological studies across Siberia and the Americas, it now appears that a single Siberian population reached the Bering land bridge no sooner than 30,000 years ago, and possibly as recently as 22,000 years. Around 16,500 years before the present, the retreat of the ice sheets cleared the way south, and a full-scale invasion through Alaska began. By 15,000 years before the present, as revealed by archaeological discoveries in both North and South America, the colonization of the Americas was well under way. It appears likely that the first populations dispersed along the recently deglaciated Pacific coastline, along land still exposed by the incomplete withdrawal of the ice sheets but nowadays mostly underwater.

A more realistic view is that the creative explosion was not a single genetic event but the culmination of a gradual process that began in an archaic form of Homo sapiens as far back as 160,000 years. This view has been supported by recent discoveries of the use of pigment that old, as well as personal ornaments and abstract design scratched on bone and with ocher dating from between 100,000 and 70,000 years ago.

For the immediate future, however, emigration and ethnic intermarriage have taken over as the overwhelmingly dominant forces of microevolution, by homogenizing the global distribution of genes. The impact on humanity as a whole, even while still in this current early stage, is an unprecedented dramatic increase in the genetic variation within local populations around the world. The increase is matched by a reduction in differences between populations. Theoretically, if the flow continues long enough, the population of Stockholm could come to be the same genetically as that in Chicago or Lagos. Overall, more kinds of genotypes are being produced everywhere. This change, unique in human evolutionary history, offers a prospect of an immense increase in different kinds of people worldwide, and thereby newly created physical beauty and artistic and intellectual genius.

With all its quirks, irrationality, and risky productions, and all its conflict and inefficiency, the biological mind is the essence and the very meaning of the human condition.

Chiefs or “big men” rule by prestige, largesse, the support of elite members below them—and retribution against those who oppose them. They live on the surplus accumulated by the tribe, employing it to tighten control upon the tribe, to regulate trade, and to wage war with neighbors. Chiefs exercise authority only on the people immediately around them or in nearby villages, with whom they interact as needed on a daily basis. In practice this means subjects who can be reached within half a day traveling by foot. The reach is thus a maximum of 25 to 30 miles. It is to the advantage of chiefs to micromanage the affairs of their domain, delegating as little authority as possible in order to reduce the chance of insurrection or fission. Common tactics include the suppression of underlings and the fomenting of fear of rival chiefdoms.

States, the final step up in the cultural evolution of societies, have a centralized authority. Rulers exercise their authority in and around the capital, but also over villages, provinces, and other subordinate domains beyond the distance of a one day’s walk, hence beyond immediate communication with the rulers. The domain is too far-flung, the social order and communication system holding it together too complex, for any one person to monitor and control. Local power is therefore delegated to viceroys, princes, governors, and other chief-like rulers of the second rank. The state is also bureaucratic. Responsibility is divided among specialists, including soldiers, builders, clerks, and priests. With enough population and wealth, the public services of art, sciences, and education can be added—first for the benefit of the elite and then, trickling down, for the general public. The heads of state sit upon a throne, real or virtual. They ally themselves with the high priests, and clothe their authority with rituals of allegiance to the gods.

There are five basic human personality traits: extroversion versus introversion, antagonism versus agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness to experience. Within populations each of these domains contains substantial heritability, mostly falling between one-third to two-thirds. This means that of the total variation of scores in each domain—the fraction due to differences in genes among individuals—falls somewhere between one-third and two-thirds. So from inheritance alone we would expect to find substantial variation in a population such as that in the Burkina Faso village. Added to differences in experience from one person to the next, especially during the formative periods of childhood, we should expect to find even greater variation, but more or less consistently from village to village, and from country to country. Does such substantial variation exist universally, and is it the same from one population to the next, or different? The variation turns out to be consistently great and universally to the same degree across populations. Such was the result of an extraordinary study conducted by a team of 87 researchers and published in 2005. The degree of variation in personality scores was similar across all of 49 cultures measured. The central tendencies of the five domains of personality differed only slightly from one to the next, in a way that was not consistent with prevailing stereotypes held by those outside the cultures.

It is highly unlikely that primary states emerged around the world as the result of convergent genetic evolution. It is all but certain that they appeared autonomously as elaborations of already existing genetic predispositions shared by human populations through common ancestry and dating back to the breakout period some 60,000 years ago.

Animals of the land environment are dominated by species with the most complex social systems. The second phenomenon is that these species have evolved only rarely in evolution.

The most complex systems are those possessing eusociality—literally “true social condition.” Members of a eusocial animal group, such as a colony of ants, belong to multiple generations. They divide labor in what outwardly at least appears to be an altruistic manner. Some take labor roles that shorten their life spans or reduce the number of their personal offspring, or both. Their sacrifice allows others who fill reproductive roles to live longer and produce proportionately more offspring. The sacrifices within the advanced societies go far beyond those between parents and their offspring. They extend to collateral relatives, including siblings, nieces, and nephews, and cousins at various degrees of remove. Sometimes they are bestowed on genetically unrelated individuals. A eusocial colony has marked advantages over solitary individuals competing for the same niche. Some of the colony members can search for food while others protect the nest from enemies. A solitary competitor belonging to another species can either hunt for food or defend its nest, but not do both at the same time. The colony can send out multiple foragers and stay home all at the same time, forming a webwork of surveillance both within and around the nest. When food is found by one colony member, it can inform the others, who then converge on the site like a closing net. When assembled, the nestmates have the ability to fight as a group against rivals and enemies. They can transport large quantities of food more rapidly to the nest, before competitors arrive. With multiple individuals serving as construction workers, the nest can quickly be made larger, its structure architecturally more efficient, and its entrances more easily defended. The nest can also be climate-controlled to some extent.

Large colonies of some species can also apply military-like formations and mass attacks to overcome prey that are invulnerable to solitary individuals.

The 20,000 known species of eusocial insects, mostly ants, bees, wasps, and termites, account for only 2% of the approximately one million known species of insects. Yet this tiny minority of species dominate the rest of the insects in their numbers, their weight, and their impact on the environment.

I have very crudely estimated the number of ants living today to be, at the nearest power of ten, 1016, ten thousand trillion. If each ant on average weighs one-millionth as each human on average, then, because there are a million times more ants than humans (at 1010), all the ants living on Earth weigh roughly as much as all the humans. This figure is not so impressive as it may sound. Consider: if every living person could be collected and log-stacked, we would make a cube less than one mile on each side. So if all the ants could be similarly collected and log-stacked, they would make a cube of similar size.

Eusociality, the condition of multiple generations organized into groups by means of an altruistic division of labor, was one of the major innovations in the history of life. It created superorganisms, the next level of biological complexity above that of organisms. It is comparable in impact to the conquest of land by aquatic air-breathing animals. It is equivalent in importance to the invention of powered flight by insects and vertebrates.

But the achievement has presented a puzzle not yet solved in evolutionary biology: the rarity of its occurrence.

In the last part of the Jurassic period, some 175 million years ago, the first termites, primitively cockroach-like in anatomy, appeared, followed about 25 million years later by ants. Even then, and continuing to the present time, the origin of other eusocial insects, or eusocial animals of any kind, has been rare. Today there are approximately 2,600 recognized taxonomic families of insects and other arthropods, such as the common fruit flies of the family Drosophilidae, orb-weaving spiders of the family Argiopidae, and land crabs of the family Grapsidae. Only 15 of the 2,600 families are known to contain eusocial species. Six of the families are termites, all of which appear to have been descended from a single eusocial ancestor. Eusociality arose in ants once, three times independently in wasps, and at least four times—probably more, but it is hard to tell—in bees.

A single case of eusociality is known in ambrosia beetles, and others have been discovered in aphids and thrips. Amazingly, eusocial behavior has originated three times in shrimps of the genus Synalpheus of the family Alphaeidae, which build nests in marine sponges. Such rare or relatively unstable originations could easily have gone undetected in the fossil record. Also, the multiplicity of eusocial origins in the Synalpheus shrimps has been discovered only recently.

Still rarer than in the invertebrates has been the appearance of eusociality in the vertebrates. It has occurred twice in the subterranean naked mole rats of Africa. It has occurred once in the line leading to modern humans, and in comparison with the invertebrate origins, only very recently in geological times—as recently as 3 million years ago. It is approached in helper-at-the-nest birds, in which the young remain with the parents for a time, but then either inherit the nest or leave to build one on their own. Eusociality is closely approached by African wild dogs, when an alpha female stays at the den to breed while the pack hunts for prey.

During Mesozoic times many evolving lines of dinosaurs attained at least some of the necessary prerequisites: human-sized, fast-moving carnivores, pack hunters, bipedal gait, and free hands. None took the final step to reach even primitive eusociality.

The sequence had two steps. First, in all of the animal species that have attained eusociality—all of them, without known exception—altruistic cooperation protects a persistent, defensible nest from enemies, whether predators, parasites, or competitors. Second, this step having been attained, the stage was set for the origin of eusociality, in which members of groups belong to more than one generation and divide labor in a way that sacrifices at least some of their personal interests to that of the group.

In the old, conventional image, that of kin selection and the “selfish gene,” the group is an alliance of related individuals that cooperate with one another because they are related. Although potentially in conflict, they nonetheless accede altruistically to the needs of the colony. Workers are willing to surrender some or all of their personal reproductive potential this way because they are kin and share genes with them by common descent. Thus each favors its own “selfish” genes by promoting identical genes that also occur in its fellow group members. Even if it gives its life for the benefit of a mother or sister, such an insect will increase the frequency of genes it shares with the relatives. The genes increased will include those that produced the altruistic behavior. If other colony members behave in similar manner, the colony as a whole can defeat groups composed of exclusively selfish individuals.

Among its basic flaws is that it treats the division of labor between the mother queen and her offspring as “cooperation,” and their dispersal from the mother nest as “defection.” But, as we pointed out, the fidelity to the group and the division of labor are not an evolutionary game. The workers are not players. When eusociality is firmly established, they are extensions of the queen’s phenotype, in other words alternative expressions of her personal genes and those of the male with whom she mated. In effect, the workers are robots she has created in her image that allow her to generate more queens and males than would be possible if she were solitary.

The origin and evolution of eusocial insects can be viewed as processes driven by individual-level natural selection. It is best tracked from queen to queen from one generation to the next, with the workers of each colony produced as phenotypic extensions of the mother queen. The queen and her offspring are often called superorganisms, but they may equally be called organisms. The worker of a wasp colony or ant colony that attacks you when you disturb its nest is a product of the mother queen’s genome. The defending worker is part of the queen’s phenotype, as teeth and fingers are part of your own phenotype. There may immediately seem to be a flaw in this comparison. The eusocial worker, of course, has a father as well as a mother, and therefore partly a different genotype from that of the mother queen. Each colony comprises an array of genomes, while the cells of a conventional organism, being clones, compose only the one genome of the organism’s zygote. Yet the process of natural selection and the single level of biological organization on which its operations occur are essentially the same. Each of us is an organism made up of well-integrated diploid cells. So is a eusocial colony. As your tissues proliferated, the molecular machinery of each cell was either turned on or silenced to create, say, a finger or a tooth. In the same way, the eusocial workers, developing into adults under the influence of pheromones from fellow colony members and other environmental cues, are directed to become one particular caste. It will perform one or a sequence of tasks out of a repertory of potential performances hardwired in the collective brains of the workers. For a period of time, rarely throughout its life, it is a soldier, a nest builder, a nurse, or an all-purpose laborer. Of course, it is a fact that genetic diversity of traits among the workers of eusocial colonies not only exists but functions on behalf of the colony—as documented for disease resistance and climate control of the nest. Would this make the colony a group of individuals, each of whom (in the perspective of kin selection theory) seeks to maximize the fitness of its own genes? That such need not be the case becomes apparent if one views the queen’s genome as consisting of parts relatively low in the variety of its alleles (different forms of each gene) whenever the traits they prescribe need to be inflexible, and yet in the same genome other parts are high in the variety of its alleles whenever those traits need to be flexible. Genetic inflexibility is a necessity of worker caste systems and the means by which they are organized and their personal labor distributed. In contrast, genetic flexibility in worker response is favored in disease resistance by the colony and in climate control inside the nest. The more genetic types that exist in a colony, the more likely that at least a few will survive if a disease sweeps through the nest. And the greater the breadth of sensitivity in detecting deviations from the desired temperature, humidity, and atmosphere, the closer these components of the nest environment can be held to their optimum for life of the colony. There is no important genetic difference between the queen and her daughters in the potential caste they can become. Each fertilized egg, from the moment the queen and male genomes unite, can become either a queen or a worker. Its fate depends on the particularities of the environment experienced by each colony member during its development, including the season in which it is born, the food it eats, and the pheromones it detects. In this sense the workers are robots, produced by the mother queen as ambulatory parts of her phenotype.

A state of conflict often results when workers try to reproduce on their own. The other workers typically thwart the usurpers, thus protecting the queen’s primacy. They may just drive her away from the brood chamber whenever she tries to lay eggs. They may pile on the offender to punish her, perhaps severely enough to cripple or kill her. If she manages to sneak her eggs into the brood chamber, her co-workers recognize their different odor and remove and eat them.  [and more about insect colonies not included, as well as why kin selection isn’t true and other detailed complexities of his theory]

Cheaters may win out within a group, gaining a larger share of resources, avoiding dangerous tasks, and breaking rules; but colonies of cheaters lose to colonies of cooperators.

Individual-versus-group selection results in a mix of altruism and selfishness, of virtue and sin among members of a society. If one member devotes its life to service over marriage, the individual is of benefit to society despite no offspring. A soldier going into battle will benefit his country, but runs a higher risk of death than one who doesn’t.  a cheater saves his own energy and reduces bodily risk and passes the social cost to others.

Wilson sees controlled fire, bipedal locomotion, hunting and so on as important innovations in human evolution, but not prime movers.

What is human nature?

The very existence of human nature was denied during the last century by most social scientists.  They clung to the dogma, in spite of mounting evidence, that all social behavior is learned and all culture is the product of history passed from one generation to the next.  Leaders of conservative religions, in contrast, have been prone to believe that human nature is a fixed property vouchsafed by God—to be explained to the masses by those privileged to understand his wishes.

Human nature is not the genes underlying it.  They prescribe the developmental rules of the brain, sensory system, and behavior that produce human nature.  Nor can the universals of culture found across all societies: age-grading, athletic sports, bodily adornment, calendar, cleanliness training, community organization, cooking, cooperative labor, cosmology, courtship, dancing, decorative art, divination, division of labor, dream interpretation, education, eschatology, ethics, ethnobotany, etiquette, faith healing, family feasting, fire making, folklore, food taboos, funeral rites, games, gestures, gift giving, government, greetings, hair styles, hospitality, housing, hygiene, incest taboos, inheritance rules, joking, kin groups, kinship nomenclature, language, law, luck superstitions, magic, marriage, mealtimes, medicine, obstetrics, penal sanctions, personal names, population policy, postnatal care, pregnancy usages, property rights, propitiation of supernatural beings, puberty customs, religious ritual, residence rules, sexual restrictions, soul concepts, status differentiation, surgery, tool making, trade, visiting, weaving, and weather control.

Human nature is the epigenetic rules, the inherited regularities of mental development. These rules are the genetic biases in the way our senses perceive the world, the symbolic coding by which we represent the world, the options we open to ourselves, and the responses we find easiest and most rewarding psychologically to make. In ways that are beginning to come into focus at the physiological and, in a few cases, the genetic level, the epigenetic rules alter the way we see and linguistically classify color, for example. They determine the individuals we as a rule find sexually most attractive. They cause us to evaluate the aesthetics of artistic design according to degree of complexity. They lead us differentially to acquire fears and phobias concerning dangers in the environment (as from snakes and heights), they induce us to communicate with certain facial expressions and forms of body language, to bond with infants, and so on across a wide range of categories in behavior and thought. Most, like incest avoidance, are evidently very ancient, dating back millions of years in mammalian ancestry. Others, such as the stages of linguistic development, are uniquely human and probably only hundreds of thousands of years old.  

The behaviors created by epigenetic rules are not hardwired like reflexes. It is the epigenetic rules instead that are hardwired, and hence compose the true core of human nature.  These behaviors are learned, but the process is what psychologists call ‘prepared.’ In prepared learning, we are innately predisposed to learn and thereby reinforce one option over another. We are “counter prepared” to make alternative choices, or even actively to avoid them.  For example, we are prepared to learn a fear of snakes very quickly yet not prepared by instinct to treat other reptiles like turtles and lizards with such a degree of revulsion.

The elaboration of culture depends upon long-term memory, and in this capacity humans rank far above all animals. The vast quantity stored in our immensely enlarged forebrains makes us consummate storytellers. We summon dreams and recollections of experience from across a lifetime and use them to create scenarios, past and future. We live in our conscious mind with the consequence of our actions, whether real or imagined. Placed out in alternative versions, our inner stories allow us to override immediate desires in favor of delayed pleasure. By long-range planning we defeat, for a while at least, the urging of our emotions. This inner life is why each person is unique and precious. When one dies, an entire library of both experience and imaginings is extinguished.

The crucial difference between human cognition and that of other animal species, including our closest genetic relatives, the chimpanzees, is the ability to collaborate for the purpose of achieving shared goals and intentions.

Homo erectus advanced to sociality — a level of cooperation among groups. Small groups had begun to establish campsites. They selected defensible sites and fortified them, with some members of the group staying for extended periods to protect the young while others hunted.

The human specialty is intentionality, fashioned from an extremely large working memory. We have become the experts at mind reading, and the world champions at inventing culture. We not only interact intensely with one another, as do other animals with advanced social organizations, but to a unique degree we have added the urge to collaborate. We express our intentions as appropriate to the moment and read those of others brilliantly, cooperating closely and competently to build tools and shelters, to train the young to plan foraging expeditions, to play on teams, to accomplish almost all we need to do to survive as human beings.

Humans are successful not because of an elevated general intelligence that addresses all challenges, but because they are born to be specialists in social skills. By cooperating through the communication and the reading of intention, groups accomplish far more than the effort of any one solitary person.

The highest level of social intelligence was aquired when our ancestors acquired a combination of three particular attributes.  They developed shared attention – the tendency to pay attention to the same object as others. They acquired a high level of the awareness they needed to act together to achieve a common goal or thwart others. And they acquired a “theory of mind,” the recognition that their own mental states would be shared by others.

After that, languages comparable to those today were invented at least 60,000 years ago. Language was the trail of human social evolution. It bestowed almost magical powers on the human species by using arbitrary symbols and words to convey meaning and an infinite number of messages. It can express to at least a crude degree everything we can perceive, dream or experience we can imagine, and every mathematical statement our analyses can construct. 

Wilson then goes on the explain why the bee waggle dance and other communications of other animals is not a language.  Some reasons why human language is are that we can make reference to objects and events not in the vicinity or that even exist.  We emphasize particular words to invoke emphasis and mood.  We can be indirect and insinuate instead of saying something baldly and leave open plausible deniability.

Turn-taking during conversations turns out to the similar no matter what the culture – the conversational gaps tend to avoid overlap, but not interruption. 

Are people innately good, but corruptible by the forces of evil? Or, are they instead innately wicked, and redeemable only by the forces of good? People are both. And so it will forever be unless we change our genes, because the human dilemma was foreordained in the way our species evolved, and therefore an unchangeable part of human nature.  Human beings and their social orders are intrinsically imperfectible and fortunately so. In a constantly changing world, we need the flexibility that only imperfection provides.

The dilemma of good and evil was created by multilevel selection, in which individual selection and group selection act together on the same individual but largely in opposition to each other. Individual selection is the result of competition for survival and reproduction among members of the same group. It shapes instincts in each member that are fundamentally selfish with reference to other members.  In contrast, group selection consists of competition between societies, through both direct conflict and differential competence at exploiting the environment.  Group selection shapes instincts that tend to make individuals altruistic toward one another but not toward members of other groups. 

Individual selection is responsible for much of what we call sin, while group selection is responsible for the greater part of virtue.  Together they have created the conflict between the poorer and the better angels of our nature.

Individual selection, defined precisely, is the differential longevity and fertility of individuals in competition with other members of the group.  Group selection is differential longevity and lifetime fertility of those genes that prescribe traits of interaction among members of the group, having arisen during competition with other groups.

How to think out and deal with the eternal ferment generated by multilevel selection is the role of the social sciences and humanities.  How to explain it is the role of the natural science, which if successful, should make the pathways to harmony among the three great branches of learning easier to create.  The social sciences and humanities are devoted to the proximate, outwardly expressed phenomena of human sensations and thought. In the same way that descriptive natural history is related to biology, the social sciences and humanities are related to human self-understanding. They describe how individuals feel and act, and with history and drama they tell a representative fraction of the infinite stores that human relationships can generate.  All of this, however, exists within a box. It is confined there because sensations and thought are ruled by human nature, and human nature is also in a box. It is only one of a vast number of possible natures that could have evolved. The one we have is the result of the improbably pathway followed across millions of years by our genetic ancestors that finally produced us. To see human nature as the product of this evolutionary trajectory is to unlock the ultimate causes of our sensations and thought. To put together both proximate and ultimate causes is the key to self-understanding, the means to see ourselves as we truly are and then to explore outside the box.

An iron rule exists in social evolution. It is that selfish individuals beat altruistic individuals, while groups of altruists beat groups of selfish individuals. The victory can never be complete; the balance of selection pressures cannot move to either extreme. If individual selection were to dominate, societies would dissolve.  If group selection were to dominate, human groups would come to resemble ant colonies. 

Each individual is linked to a network of other group members. Its own survival and reproductive capacity are dependent in part on its interaction with others in the network.  What counts is the propensity to form the myriad alliances, favors, exchanges of information, and betrayals that make up daily life in the network.

When villages and chiefdoms emerged around 10,000 years ago, the nature of networks changed, growing in size dramatically.  Groups became overlapping, hierarchical, and porous. Social existence became far less stable than when we were hunter gatherers. In industrialized nations, networks grow to a complexity that is bewildering to the Paleolithic mind we inherited. Our instincts still desire the tiny, united band-networks, unprepared for civilization.

This trend has thrown confusion into the joining of groups, one of the most powerful human impulses. Every person is a compulsive group-seeker, hence an intensely tribal anima. This need is satisfied in a extended family, organized religion, ideology, ethnic group, or sports club in combination.

To be human is also to level others, especially those who appear to receive more than they have earned.  To steer through jealous rivals, people try to be modest in demeanor as a stratagem.  And to enhance reputation with reciprocity so that altruism and cooperativeness are achieved, as the expression “do good and talk about it” states. Since everyone knows the game, people are willing to counter it if they can, acutely sensitive to hypocrisy and read to to level those with less than impeccable credentials.  Levelers have a formidable armament of roasts, jokes, parodies, and mocking laughter to weaken the haughty and overly ambitious. Some studies suggest that leveling is beneficial. Societies that do best for their citizens in quality of life, from education, medical car, and crime control also have the lowest income differential between the wealthy and poor.

People also enjoy seeing punishment of those who don’t cooperate, the freeloaders and criminals or idle rich.  They’re also willing to administer justice, scolding motorists running a red light, whistle-blowing their employer, and so on. 

Societies are mistaken to disapprove of homosexuality because gays have different sexual preferences and reproduce less. Their presence should be valued instead for what they contribute constructively to human diversity. A society that condemns homosexuality harms itself.

SCIENCE & RELIGION

The conflict between science and religion began in earnest during the late 20th century when scientists saw humans as a product of evolution by natural selection.  By 1998, members of the U.S. National academy of sciences, an elite elected group, were approaching complete atheism. Only 10% testified to a belief in either God or immortality, with just 2% of them biologists.

But in the late 1990s, over 95% of Americans believed in God or some kind of universal life force, and 45% attend church more than once a week.  Europeans are puzzled over this widespread biblical literalism and denial, by half the U.S. population, of biological evolution. 

The evidence in great abundance points to organized religion as an expression of tribalism.  Every religion teaches its adherents that they are a special fellowship and that their creation story, moral precepts, and privilege from divine power are superior to those claimed in other religions.  Their charity and other acts of altruism are concentrated on their coreligionists; when extended to outsiders, it is usually to proselytize and strengthen the size of the trip and its allies.  No religious leader ever urges people to consider rival religions and choose the one they find best for their person and society.  The conflict among religions is often instead an accelerant, if not a direct cause of war. Devout believers value their faith above all else and are quick to anger if it is challenged. The power of organized religious is based upon their contribution to social order and personal security, not the search for truth.  Acceptance of bizarre creation myths binds the members together.

[and a great deal more about religion, the arts, music]

Where are we going?

By any conceivable standard, humanity is far and away life’s geat achievement. We are the mind of the biosphere, the solar system, and who can say – perhaps the galaxy.  Our ancestors were one of the few to ever evolve eusociality, with group members across two or more generations staying together, cooperating, caring for the young, and dividing labor that favors some over others.  We hit upon symbol-based language, literacy, and science-based technology that gave us an edge over the rest of life.  We are godlike.

How did we get here?  Apparently multilevel natural selection of group and individual selection combined. This is why we are conflicted – feeling the pull of conscience, of heroism against cowardice, of truth against deception, of commitment against withdrawal. It isour fate to be tormented with large and small dilemmas as we daily wind our way through the risky, fractious world that gave us birth. We have mixed feelings. We are not sure of this or that course of action. We know too well that no one is immune from making a catastrophic mistake or any organization free of corruption.

We are pleased to endlessly watch and analyze our relatives, friends, and enemies. Gossip has always been the favorite occupation in every society.  To weigh as accurately as possible the intentions and trustworthiness of those who affect us is very human and highly adaptive.  And to judge the impact of others on the welfare of the group as a whole. We are geniuses at reading intentions of others as they struggle with their own angels and demons.  Civil law is how we moderate the damage of inevitable failures.

Confusion is compounded by humanity living in a largely mythic, spirit-haunted world which we owe to our early history.  When our ancestors realized their mortality about 100,000 years ago, they sought an explanation of who they were and the meaning of the world. They must have asked where do the dead go and most decided they went to the spirit world. And we could see the dead again in dreams, with drugs or self-inflicted privation. 

The best, the only way our forebears could explain existence was a creation myth, which without exception, affirmed the superiority of the tribe that invented it over all other trips.  Every religious believer saw himself as a chosen person.  To question the sacred myths is to question the identity and worth of those who believe them. That is why skeptics, even those committed to equally absurd myths, are disliked and can risk imprisonment or death.

Organized religions preside over the rites of passage, from birth to maturity, from marriage to death. They offer the best a tribe has to offer: a committed community that gives heartfelt emotional support, and welcomes, and forgives.  These beliefs in immorality and divine justice give comfort and steel resolution and bravery. Religions have been the source of much of the best of creative arts.

Why then is it wise to openly question the myths and gods of organized religions?  Because they are stultifying and divisive.  Because each is just one version of a competing multitude of scenarios that possibly can be true. Because they encourage ignorance, distract people from recognizing problems of the real world, and often lead them in wrong directions into disastrous actions.  True to their biological origins, they passionately encourage altruism within the membership.

A good first step toward the liberation of humanity from the oppressive forms of tribalism would be to repudiate the claims of those in power who say they speak for God, are a special representative of god, or have exclusive knowledge of God’s divine will.  Among these purveyors of theological narcissism are would-be prophets, the founders of religious cults, impassioned evangelical minsters, ayatollahs, imams of the grand mosques, chief rabbis, Rosh yeshivas, the Dalai Lama and the pope.  The same is true for dogmatic political ideologies based on unchallengeable precepts, left or right, and especially where justified with the dogmas of organized religions.

Another argument for a new Enlightenment is that we are alone on this planet with whatever reason and understanding we can muster, and hence solely responsible for our actions as a species.  The planet we have conquered is not just a stop along the way to a better world out there in some other dimension.  Surely one moral precept we can agree on is to stop destroying our birthplace, the only home humanity will ever have.  The evidence for climate warming, the industrial pollution as the principal cause is now overwhelming.  Also evident is the rapid disappearance of tropical forests and grasslands and other habitats where most of the diversity of life exists. Half of living species could be extinct by the end of the century.

Science is not just another enterprise like medicine or engineering or theology. It is the wellspring of all the knowledge we have of the real world that can be tested and fitted to preexisting knowledge.  It is the arsenal of technologies and inferential math needed to distinguish the true from the false. It formulates the principles and formulas that tie all this knowledge together. Science belongs to everybody.  Its constituent parts can be challenged by anybody in the world who has sufficient information to do so. It is not just another way of knowing, making it coequal with religious faith.  The conflict between scientific knowledge and the teachings of organized religions is irreconcilable. The chasm will continue to widen and cause no end of trouble as long as religious leaders go on making unsupportable claims about supernatural causes of reality.

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Offshore wind turbines: Expensive, risky, and last just 15 years

Preface: The Department of Energy high wind penetration plans require a lot of offshore wind. But is it possible, affordable, or wise to do this? Corrosion leads to a short lifespan of just 15 years. To reduce maintenance, offshore windmills use limited rare earth metals.  A 500 MW offshore wind farm could cost $3.04 Tillion dollars (Table A-1). The materials (i.e. steel & concrete) needed for 730,099 2 MW windmills in America are staggering. Offshore turbines of 6 MW weigh 757 tons, nearly 2.5 times more than onshore turbines (table 4.3), each one weighing as much as 505 cars of 3,000 pounds each. The latest proposed turbines in New Jersey will be 800 feet tall (Grandoni 2020). Most components are made in China and Europe, so supply chain disruptions would delay repairs or repowering.

Wind turbines can be battered, rusted, corroded, or destroyed by tides, storms, hurricanes, lightning, icebergs, floes, large waves, and marine growth, shortening their lives and increasing maintenance and operation costs.

Offshore wind turbines are often stood upright on ships and moved to their location, which can’t be done if there are any bridges in the way.  The U.S. only has five utility-scale wind turbines in 2021, all off of Rhode Island.

Why build risky, expensive, short-lived offshore wind farms if a renewable electric grid may not be possible given the lack of a national grid, lack of commercial-level utility-scale energy storage, and the insurmountable issue of seasonal wind and solar?  Peak oil occurred in 2018, so sometime within the next 10 years oil shocks will hit and oil will be too precious for building such contraptions, and eventually be rationed mainly to agriculture as the 1980 DOE Standby rationing plan called for, and after that, the center will not hold.  Rather than wind turbines, remaining energy should be used to go back to organic (regenerative) agriculture, burying nuclear wastes, and myriad other efforts for going back to Wood World for energy and infrastructure, like all civilizations before fossils.  

Floating offshore wind turbines

Offshore wind turbines are limited to water at most 165 feet deep.  Some 60% of available offshore wind resource in the U.S. is beyond the reach of fixed-bottom foundation turbines, including most of the West Coast.

The only commercial floating wind farm today is in Hywind Scotland. each Siemens SWT-6.0-154 turbine has a towerhead mass of around 350 tons and sits on a foundation with roughly 6,060 tons of solid ballast and a displacement of some 13,230 tons. The turbine is attached to a spar buoy that extends 260 feet below the surface and tethered up to 390 feet below (Deign 2020).

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Navigant. 2013. U.S. Offshore Wind Manufacturing and Supply Chain Development. U.S. Department of Energy.

https://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/pdfs/us_offshore_wind_supply_chain_and_manufacturing_development.pdf

Can we afford offshore wind turbines? A 500 MW farm costs $3 trillion dollars and will last only 15 years

offshore wind capital costs 3 trillion dollars

Component Land-basedtons Offshoretons
Rotor 62 156
Nacelle 82 316
Tower 162 285
Total Assembly 306 757
Table 4-3. Comparison of Major Land-based and Offshore Turbine Component Weights (tons)

Developing offshore wind in the U.S. introduces the issues such as:

  1. Hurricane risk along the southern portions of the Eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast regions, especially extreme wind gusts. Extreme loads might also result from hurricane-generated waves, sustained high winds, increased wave frequency, rapid directional wind changes, and other forces
  2. Surface and blade icing in the freshwater Great Lakes and other northern latitudes. Icing risks primarily manifest in the form of surface ice, which can place significant additional loads on turbine foundations and towers.
  3. Freshwater surface-ice floes will be a major design driver for any offshore turbines.
  4. Potential for earthquakes and higher average sea-states may increase fatigue concerns on offshore wind turbine structures.
  5. Bearings are subject to a high level of stress over the lifetime of the turbine, and therefore represent significant risk in the case of unexpected failure. This is particularly the case for offshore wind turbines, where downtime and difficult access for maintenance can have expensive repercussions.
  6. Towers are too heavy to move from inland locations. Single-car weight limits for U.S. railroads are approximately 140 tons (BNSF 2012, Union Pacific 2012). 5 to 6-MW turbines range from 280-325 tons.
  7. Wider-bases for offshore wind towers may exceed underpass requirements for either rail or road transportation. Towers for today’s 80-meter land-based turbines (with diameters of 4.5 meters) already encounter difficulties when it comes to planning trucking routes, and next-generation land-based towers (105-meters tall and 5.4 meters in diameter) are likely to face even more restrictions (AWEA 2012). Offshore wind turbine towers are likely to range from 5 to 6.75 meters in diameter.
  8. In addition to traffic congestion, overland transport of wind turbines can cause road damage, due to the repeated passage of heavy-load convoys. Moving wind turbine components also requires increasingly complex coordination. Scheduling between trucking companies, railroad and port operators, and city and state authorities can be very onerous. Moreover, as components grow larger, transportation costs will increase.
  9. Reliability is more critical offshore than onshore due to multiple factors. The offshore environment can be much harsher, with high winds, significant wave loads, and corrosion-producing salt water. Offshore turbines must be manufactured to be able to withstand this environment.
  10. Harsh weather offshore not only threatens the performance of wind turbines, it can also inhibit access to turbines by maintenance staff. The inability to reach and repair sub-performing or inoperable turbines can cause significant lost power sales. Severe weather also increases safety concerns for maintenance crews.
  11. Compared to the land-based wind market, the offshore wind market entails many more risks that increase the level of quality needed. The marine environment can be much harsher than a land-based site. Corrosion can damage external as well as internal areas of the turbine. Moreover, access constraints to an offshore site, often caused by poor weather or lack of availability of appropriate vessels, can increase O&M costs as well as reduce revenue due to power losses.

Other capital costs

  • Specialized vessels to install turbines offshore can cost $100 to $250 million each. Three primary types of vessels are used in the installation of offshore wind turbines and foundations – heavy-lift vessels combined with working barges; jack-up barges without propulsion; and self-propelled jack-up vessels. In addition, subsea cable installation requires a specialized type of vessel. The continuing trend toward larger offshore turbines adds uncertainty (e.g., what size or type of vessel to construct) for investors and companies looking to build new ships to serve the offshore market.
  • Land cost. Fabrication and construction need to be near or along the shore because offshore turbines are too large and heavy to move overland, and require a large amount of land
  • $1.3 billion port facility. Includes blade, nacelle, tower, and foundation manufacturing facilities; new cranes, heavy-capacity terminals, staging areas, warehouse space, and infrastructure to connect to land-based transportation. $150 million for dredging and wharf reinforcements, $500 million for new infrastructure, including berthing space, storage area, and staging area; and nearly $50 million to improve lift capacity. An additional $700 million investment is assumed to go toward industrial manufacturing facilities. In addition to the blade and nacelle facilities included in the mid scenario, the high scenario includes a $240 million tower manufacturing plant and a $190 million foundation manufacturing facility.

Table D-7. Per-MW Turbine Component Costs for Hypothetical U.S. Offshore Wind Project. A 6 MW turbine would cost $11 million, this doesn't include the substructure/foundation, electric cables, substation, etc

Table D-7. Per-MW Turbine Component Costs for Hypothetical U.S. Offshore Wind Project. A 6 MW turbine would cost $11 million, this doesn’t include the substructure/foundation, electric cables, substation, etc

Offshore wind limited by supplies of rare earth metals

This study reveals the need for permanent magnet generators (PMGs), and a concern this could lead to exhausting limited supplies of rare earth metals Neodymium (Nd), Dysprosium (Dy) and Praseodymium (Pr), used by the PMGs, which serve the function of making the gearbox robust enough to overcome extreme marine conditions and withstand torques, extreme forces, operating speeds, and temperatures. Global demand may reach 12,200 tons per year of rare earth metals for PMGs by the end of 2016, yet only 7,840 tons of neodymium and 112 of dysprosium are produced per year now.

The enormous size of offshore wind turbines and their components is anticipated to make it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to move turbine components over land.

Because of this, coastal manufacturing of blades, nacelle, tower, foundation, and substructure fabrication may be an industry requirement in the near future. This will require very large swaths of coastal land—Vestas’ recently abandoned Sheerness U.K. proposed facility was planned to be on the order of 70 hectares (173 acres).

Widespread deployment off the Pacific Coast of the U.S. and the Gulf of Maine, which are characterized by deeper near-shore water depths, will likely require floating foundations. Despite the theoretical benefits of floating platforms, it is not yet clear whether floating platforms are technically or economically viable over the long term.

A lack of current U.S. offshore demand means no domestic manufacturing facilities are currently serving the offshore wind market.

Three major barriers combine to have a dampening effect on the development of the U.S. offshore wind supply chain:

  1. the high cost of offshore wind energy;
  2. infrastructure challenges such as transmission and purpose-built ports and vessels;
  3. regulatory challenges such as new and uncertain leasing and permitting processes.

The result is that European and Asian suppliers who are currently supplying offshore wind turbines and components have a competitive advantage over their U.S. counterparts. The U.S. offshore wind industry faces a “chicken-and-egg” problem where plants will not be built unless the cost is reduced, and local factories (which will help bring down the cost) will not be built until there is a proven domestic market.

33% Turbine
22% Support Structure/ Foundation
19% Logistics and Installation
12% Electrical Infrastructure
12% Construction Financing
2% Development/ Services

Figure 1. Offshore Wind Plant Capital Cost Breakdown

To gain additional insights into Ability to Open New Markets: Innovations including floating substructures, hurricane tolerance, sea- and surface-ice tolerance, and transitional water-depth foundations are anticipated to have the greatest ability to open up new markets to offshore wind technology.

Installation Vessels

Historically, vessels converted from other analogous industries (e.g., oil and gas) have served the majority of the marine construction and transport needs of the industry. The lower cost of entry to convert an existing vessel, and the versatility of these machines has been attractive. However, offshore wind differs from offshore oil and gas; there are far more units (foundations, pilings, and turbines) to be installed and significantly more movement from one turbine site to the next. Dedicated offshore wind installation vessels have been constructed and are playing an increasing role in the European offshore wind market. As the industry grows and matures, the development of assembly-line style vessel coordination—where one vessel installs the foundation and is followed by a series of vessels installing the tower, nacelle, and blades in order—is a possibility. Depending on specific design specifications, floating foundations will likely require simpler vessel designs; turbines could be fully assembled on land and then simply towed with traditional or modestly modified tugs.

Despite the advantages of specialized vessels and integrated logistics solutions, realizing these opportunities requires significant infrastructure development and investment. Existing German ports have invested $100 million to $250 million in upgrades and infrastructure to support offshore wind. More fully integrated conceptual designs in Hull and Sheerness in the U.K. or Edinburgh, Scotland, could result in new infrastructure investment on the order of $500 million (NLC 2010). Dedicated installation vessels are estimated to be on the order of $100 million and higher (Musial and Ram 2010), with some recent estimates exceeding $250 million per vessel. Generating the demand volume to drive the level of investment that will be needed to realize the cost-reduction potential of more sophisticated and integrated manufacturing and vessel fleets will be a challenge moving forward.

Offshore wind is a capital-intensive industry, and significant investments will be required to realize the efficiencies offered by opportunities such as integrated manufacturing and port facilities or assembly-line vessels. Stability in both demand and the overall technology platform will likely be needed for such sizable investments to occur.

Investors will be hesitant to invest heavily in new technology platforms until a proven track record is achieved.

The future U.S. offshore wind market would have to compete with the European and Asian offshore markets as well as emerging land-based markets for manufacturer investment dollars.

While some U.S. manufacturing that supplies the land-based wind market is running at part load, manufacturing larger components for the offshore market may require significant investments in re-tooling or an altogether new facility located near the coasts where offshore projects are being developed.

Many of the large European turbine suppliers are increasingly outsourcing components and materials to Asia, particularly to China, which has the world’s largest wind power equipment manufacturing base. Although some OEMs hesitate to move away from established suppliers due to concerns over quality, economic pressures from declining turbine prices are driving manufacturers to accept higher risks to remain competitive (BTM 2011).

In the offshore market, the recent introduction of multi-MW turbines (mostly 5-6 MW) by turbine manufacturers in both Europe and China increases such supply concerns over these strategic components (e.g., bearings and other forgings) for these larger turbines. This is partly because it takes time for the supply chain to prepare for mass production of such large parts that can meet OEMs’ increased quality requirements for offshore turbines. Moreover, in some cases these components are larger than have ever been produced for any industry.

Gearboxes and Generators

The wind turbine gearbox serves the purpose of converting the high torque from the main shaft into the lower-torqued, high-speed shaft that drives the generator. Long-bladed wind turbine rotors produce substantial torque while turning the main drivetrain shaft at relatively low rotational rates. As such, the gearbox is one of the most mechanically advanced components of a wind turbine, consisting of precision gears, bearings, shafts, and other parts that experience extreme forces, operating speeds, and temperatures. Reliability is paramount in offshore applications due to the logistical challenges of maintenance and repair.

Offshore gearbox design, therefore, must be robust enough to withstand the torques experienced by large, multi-megawatt machines in marine conditions. Recently, wind turbine design optimization philosophy has been shifting from a predominant reliance on gearboxes towards an increased use of direct-drive technology with large permanent magnet generators (PMGs). Especially in the growing offshore market, this trend has been motivated by customer demand for increased reliability (following experiences with bearing-related gearbox failures) and the higher power-to-weight ratios attainable in turbines with direct drives. Across the entire wind power market (both land-based and offshore), direct drives (annular and PMGs) represented 17.6% of market share in 2010 and 21.2% in 2011. Based on manufacturer announcements, this trend will likely continue toward 25% market share by

PMGs. Permanent magnets are used to varying degrees in both direct-drive turbines (DD-PMG) and fast- or medium-speed, geared turbines (FSG/MSG) fitted with a PMG. Twenty different European and North American firms are capable of supplying PMGs to the wind industry, with three (ABB, The Switch, and Converteam) currently supplying the European offshore market.

Market actors have indicated an industry shift toward PMGs, whether they be direct drive or FSG/MSG (BTM 2011). As stated above, this shift and the number of global suppliers manufacturing DFIGs makes it unlikely that the market will face a shortage of such generators in the near term. Based on the early stage of direct drives’ application to offshore turbines and current manufacturing capacities, the offshore market does not currently face a shortage of capacity for manufacturing PMGs either.

Based on the likelihood that units must be designed and manufactured specifically for offshore applications, gearbox and generator manufacturing lines are likely to have limited transferability to land-based turbines. However, an individual facility could reasonably operate multiple lines intended to supply both land-based and offshore wind turbines, particularly if located on the coast. Size restrictions, however, may prevent larger offshore gearboxes and generators from shipping by rail.

Rare Earth Mineral Supply

Currently, the majority (97%) of rare earth elements come from mines in China, and recent material shortages and price increases (largely driven by Chinese export quotas) have drawn attention to the cost risks associated with PMGs’ reliance on these materials. For example, the cost index for neodymium has fluctuated by up to 600% over the past few years (BTM 2012). Assuming that PMG demand increases from its current 10% share of the overall wind turbine market, global demand may reach 12,200 tons per year of rare earth metals for PMGs by the end of 2016. Currently, the leading global supplier of permanent magnets (PMs) to the wind industry is the Chinese company JLMAG Rare-Earth Co. Ltd, which has a worldwide market share of approximately 60% (BTM 2011).

Although manufacturers expect a tight market for rare earth elements over the next 2-3 years, current trends suggest both potential increases in supply from mines outside of China as well as adaptive strategies to ease demand among turbine suppliers. Proven reserves of rare earth elements exist in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Malaysia, South Africa, and Brazil, and investors are moving to develop new mines or re-establish prior operations in these locations. In the U.S., this includes the Mountain Pass (California) and Bear Lodge (Wyoming) mines, with investment and development activity from RCF, Goldman Sachs, Traxys, and Rare Element Resources. However, industry consensus suggests that it will take 3-4 years before these new mines are producing significant capacities and 6-10 years to reach maximum capacity. In terms of adaptive strategies, both turbine suppliers and generator manufacturers are exploring opportunities such as hedging, long-term contracts, strategic joint ventures, acquisitions of rare earth mining companies or permanent magnet suppliers, and research into diversification away from rare earth elements (BTM 2011).

Turbine Electronics: Power Converters and Power Transformers

The use of power converters in variable-speed wind turbines enables the variable generator frequency and voltage of the turbine to be efficiently converted to the fixed frequency/voltage of the grid. The presence of converters inside modern wind turbines improves their performance and offers enlarged grid-friendly control capabilities. This is a rapidly developing technology whose price/power ratio is still falling. Similarly, in an effort to improve long-term reliability and lower costs, many OEMs are investing in higher-performance power transformer systems designed specifically for the environmental and operational challenges of offshore turbines.

Bearings play an important role in several key wind turbine systems, including several locations in the drive train (e.g., main shaft, gearbox and generator) and in pitch and yaw systems, which allow for directional control of the blades and the nacelle, respectively. Bearings are subject to a high level of stress over the lifetime of the turbine, and therefore represent significant risk in the case of unexpected failure. This is particularly the case for offshore wind turbines, where downtime and difficult access for maintenance can have expensive repercussions.

While supply capabilities for standard-sized bearings have increased sufficiently over the past several years to meet market demand, fewer manufacturers have been willing to pursue the market for larger bearings for several reasons. First, only a limited number of suppliers in the U.S. and Europe can provide steel at the quality levels preferred by bearing manufacturers. Similarly, quality manufacturing and reliable products supersede cost concerns for the offshore bearing market, where a failure can result in a significant hit to a project’s levelized cost.

Manufacture of bearings for larger offshore turbines requires dedicated investment in new machinery (with long lead times). The offshore market represents the primary source of demand for larger bearings, creating a risk of inconsistent demand. Limited transferability and large upfront investments for manufacturing larger bearings creates risk.

The technical machinery and equipment used to produce and test extra-large bearings requires a significant investment, which poses a potential risk when demand relies almost entirely on the offshore wind market. Current policy uncertainty in the U.S. may discourage the level of investment that would be required to build such a facility in the near term, particularly when local content provisions in India and Brazil are attracting interest from the bearings industry. In addition, supply constraints for specialty steels and large castings and forgings could add greater uncertainty to the mix.

Pitch and Yaw Systems Pitch systems control the blades on a wind turbine to help maximize energy production under various wind speeds or to turn the blades out of the wind (feather the blades) to avoid damage during adverse conditions. Yaw systems orient the entire nacelle in the direction of the wind and work in concert with the yaw bearing between the tower and the turbine’s nacelle. Both systems use either an electric or hydraulic system based primarily on turbine OEMs’ historical preferences. For offshore turbine pitch systems, the current system market share is 86% hydraulic (primarily Vestas and Siemens) and 14% electric systems, though electric systems’ share of the total is expected to increase slowly based on recent trends (BTM 2012).7 Electric pitch and yaw systems’ main subcomponents comprise electric motors, gears, sensor equipment, and control arms, while hydraulic systems consist primarily of hydraulic cylinders, rods, pumps, filters, and sensor equipment. While each turbine’s pitch system includes three sets of primary components (i.e., motors or cylinders), yaw systems for multi-MW offshore turbines may require up to eight individual motors per turbine.

Castings and Forgings. The main cast iron components in a wind turbine comprise the nacelle main frame and the rotor hub, followed by housings for the gearbox and bearings. The main forged item in a wind turbine is the main shaft; however, several other forged items contribute to various sub-assemblies, including gear wheels and rims in the gearbox; outer and inner rings for large bearings; tower flanges; and other smaller components. In both cases, OEMs have high-quality demands for the materials used, as the costs of downtime and maintenance for offshore turbines represents a significant risk.

Turbine blades constitute a key component of wind development and the supply chain due to their sheer size and technological attributes. They dictate the energy capture of the turbine and can define the logistical size constraints for transportation. With blade lengths for next-generation offshore turbines anticipated to exceed 60 or even 80 meters, transportation logistics will likely necessitate that those blades be manufactured in coastal locations near the point of final installation.

Nearer-term opportunities may exist for facilities already located on coasts; however, U.S. offshore wind potential tends to be located far from inland land-based project sites. Length limits for ground transportation fall between 60 and 75 meters.

No blades for offshore turbines are currently manufactured in the U.S., though many of the companies producing blades for land-based applications have the experience and intellectual know-how to expand into the U.S. offshore market. Presumably, some of these suppliers may shift production facilities from central locations currently serving the U.S. land-based demand to coastal locations that can accommodate the logistics of larger blade sizes for offshore machines. Once relocated, however, this manufacturing capacity will be less likely to continue serving the land-based market due to the added overland distance to those projects.

Key Blade Materials: Resin and Reinforcement Fibers Epoxy resins are the basic material for most wind turbine blades globally. Some blade manufacturers, including leading supplier LM Wind Power, use unsaturated polyester resins (UPR), a less expensive alternative to epoxy. In addition to epoxy resin or UPR, wind turbine blades require significant quantities of reinforcement fibers to provide the strength necessary to withstand heavy wind loads. While glass fiber remains the dominant source of reinforcement fiber in the blade market, carbon fiber will likely play an increasing role in longer (>60 meter) offshore turbine blades as manufacturers seek to increase stiffness-to-weight ratios. However, based on the slow growth of the offshore market and pressures to keep capital costs low (carbon fiber is more expensive), glass fibers will likely continue to dominate the market for several years.

While land-based wind turbine towers are relatively low-tech components, towers for offshore wind turbines generally come with additional quality requirements and risk potential. For example, offshore towers must have an effective anti-corrosion coating to protect the tower against extreme weather conditions and an effective repair system in case of damage during transport. Turbine OEMs, therefore, are more selective in the qualification and selection of firms to supply their projects.

As with the larger blades expected for next-generation turbines, the logistics for offshore towers are more critical in terms of location, often requiring the manufacturing facility to be in a coastal area close to the project.

Tabless 2-35, 2-37, and 2-41 show the material requirements for 2,125 offshore wind turbines: up to 494,700 tons of primary steel, up to 12,118 tons of secondary steel, up to 509,500 tons of concrete, 377 miles of inter-array cable, 143 miles of export cable, and 8 substations.

Offshore Subsea Cables. Offshore wind plants use two kinds of cables: inter-array cables and export cables. Inter-array cables (rated up to 35 kilovolts [kV]) link individual turbines and connect the turbines to the plant’s substation. Export cables (rated up to 600 kV) connect the substation to the land-based grid and are much longer and heavier than inter-array cables. Thus far, most offshore wind projects have relied on alternating current (AC) cables; however, as projects move further from shore, increased distances and potential line losses are encouraging the use of HVDC technology. In general, if an offshore wind farm is more than 80 to 100 km (43-51 Nmi) from its point of interconnection, HVDC cables are preferred

Offshore Substations. The substation collects the power generated from a plant’s turbines and power transformer and converts it for export over subsea cables to a land-based transformer and the electric grid

As of 2011, 53 vessels were available globally to carry out offshore wind installation, with 42 based in European countries and the remaining 11 based in China (BTM 2011). While many of these vessels can serve multiple purposes, several companies have invested in vessels customized for wind installation,

Another potential bottleneck in the vessel supply chain lies with the availability of cable installation vessels. Currently, only a few fully equipped and highly specialized cable installation vessels exist that can lay offshore wind power cables. Some investors remain hesitant to build additional vessels without a strong policy support and commitment from relevant government. Cable laying represents one of the highest-risk aspects of offshore wind project construction, comprising approximately 80% of project insurance claims stemming from damage during or after installation (BTM 2011). Subsea cables are manufactured and loaded directly onto cable installation ships adjacent to foreign coastal manufacturing facilities. These cable ships can then transport and lay the cable off the U.S. shore without first entering a U.S. port, thus avoiding the Jones Act constraint.

There are a few minimum requirements likely to be associated with any port that might serve the offshore wind industry. These minimum requirements are largely determined by components’ current or anticipated future size, which generally precludes overland transport (particularly for full or partially assembled pieces of equipment) and necessitates access for large vessels. Such requirements are also a function of land available for both staging and storage of components such as nacelles, rotors, and foundations. Table 2-44 lists minimum port requirements

Vestas and EWEA also specify the need for 11,000 to 16,000 ft2 of available warehousing space, and Tetra Tech highlights substantial air draft or vertical clearance and horizontal clearance in excess of 130 feet as minimum requirements (Tetra Tech 2010). All three groups listed transportation connectivity via rail and a nearby highway as important for smaller inputs. EWEA additionally lists a heliport as desirable.

Existing ports do not commonly have all of these features. Some, but not all, of these requirements are also necessary for receiving container ships, the predominant method of shipping cargo. Given differences in available space and existing infrastructure among ports, different ports could conceivably host the manufacture and staging of different components based on their individual characteristics. Table 2-45 summarizes such varying port requirements by component type.

Component Blades Nacelle Tower Monopile Jacket Table 2-45. Selected Port Requirements by Component Wharf Load Capacity (Wharf, Length Transition Area) 600 ft 200 lbs/ft2 600 ft 2,000 lbs/ft2 600 ft 200 lbs/ft2 600 ft 4,000 lbs/ft2 300 ft 2,000 lbs/ft2 Storage Area (Per Unit) 6.2 acres 1.2 acres 12.4 acres 0.2 acres 0.3 acres Mobile Crane Load Outs 100 tons 400 tons 550 tons 1,100 tons 800 tons Source: Blatiak, Garrett, & O’Neill (2012)

port development decisions will more likely be a function of the perceived opportunity cost for a given port or port authority; proximity to anticipated projects; and the ability to assemble the collective public and private investment necessary to advance port development. It is plausible that a highvolume container port may see more value in continuing to maximize container volume rather than diversifying into offshore wind.

In August 2011, a wind turbine blade suffered $275,000 in damage when the semi-trailer truck transporting it crashed into another vehicle in a busy intersection in Dubuque, Iowa.21 Figure 4-2. Blade Damage During Land Transport

http://www.thonline.com/news/breaking/article_fe7deb6c-c8d5-11e0-9ab6-001a4bcf6878.html

Rare Earth Materials Within two decades China has become the world’s largest rare earth element market in the world, home to approximately 97% of the world’s resource. Rare earth metals are in high demand as they are seen seminal to the development of advanced high-end clean technologies, as well as the defense and refinery industries. In 2010, 4,100 MW were required for permanent magnets, although the need for rare earth metals is anticipated to grow significantly with the expansion of the direct-drive PMG market. In early 2012, Molycorp, the owner of the largest rare earth deposit in the U.S., reopened the Mountain Pass mine in California and started production of rare earths in February 2012. In March 2012, Molycorp made a downstream vertical integration play by acquiring processing company Neo Material, which has plants in Asia that serve Chinese and Japanese markets. The company expects to have the capacity to produce 40,000 metric tons of rare earth oxide (REO) equivalent annually from its Mountain Pass mine by mid-2013. Roughly 15-20% of this total, or 6,000-8,000 metric tons, is expected to be comprised of Neodymium.

Equipment size. Offshore turbines are typically larger than land-based turbines and are growing even larger. Suppliers must have manufacturing equipment large enough to produce these large components. This can often prove difficult as some castings and forgings can weigh over 10 tons. Table 4-3. Comparison of Major Land-based and Offshore Turbine Component Weights (tons) Component Rotor Nacelle Tower Total Assembly Land-based Offshore (Siemens 2.3-101) (RePower 6M: 6.15 MW) 62 156 82 316 162 285 306 757 4.5.2.2 Capital

Logistics challenges

As mentioned before, growth of offshore wind turbines and their components is anticipated to make it increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to move turbine components over land. Coastal manufacturing for blades and nacelle assembly as well as tower, foundation, and substructure fabrication may be an effective industry requirement in the future. Under ideal circumstances, component storage and staging activities would occur alongside manufacturing and fabrication at an integrated manufacturing and port facility. However, this will require very large swaths of coastal land.

Siemens. (2012). “Record-Size Rotor Blades Transported to Destination” Press Release. http://www.siemens.com/innovation/en/news/2012/e_inno_1226_2.htm. Accessed October 17, 2012.

Statoil. (2011). “Hywind – The World’s First Full-Scale Floating Wind Turbine.” http://www.statoil.com/en/TechnologyInnovation/NewEnergy/RenewablePowerProd uction/Offshore/Hywind/Pages/HywindPuttingWindPowerToTheTest.aspx. Accessed March 1,

Principle Power (2011). “First WindFloat Successfully Deployed Offshore.” Press Release. http://www.principlepowerinc.com/news/press_PPI_WF_deployment.html.

D-1. Technology Profile Key for Deployment Scenarios Metric Nameplate Capacity (MW) Hub Height (meters) Rotor Diameter (meters) Water Depth (meters) Monopile Foundations Jacket Foundations Tripod Foundations Gravity Base Foundations Proximity to Staging Area** Proximity to Interconnection** Proximity to Service Port** Project Size (MW) Max Nacelle Weight*** Max Nacelle Footprint Today’s Standard Technology 3 – 6 70 – 90 90 – 130 10 – 40 yes yes yes yes < 100 miles < 50 miles < 30 miles 200 -300 215 metric tons (5 MW) Next-Generation Technology 5 – 7 > 90 120 – 170 10 – 50 no yes yes yes > 100 miles > 50 miles > 30 miles 500 – 1,000 410 metric tons (7 MW) *Proof of commercial viability (one step from prototype testing)

D-6. Detailed Estimate of Turbine Capital Costs by Component for the U.K. Market (2010 £)

Table D-7. Per-MW Turbine Component Costs for Hypothetical U.S. Offshore Wind Project

A more comprehensive description of technical port requirements can be found in the DOE companion report developed by Blatiak, Garrett, & O’Neill (2012).

Table 2-44. Suggested Minimum Port Requirements for Serving the Offshore Wind Industry Association EWEA Vestas Tetra Tech Draft or Harbor Depth 20 feet (draft) 20 feet (draft) 24 feet (depth) Wharf/Quay Staging and Length Storage Load Capacity 500 feet 15 acres 600 lbs/ft2 650 feet 9 acres 5,000 lbs/ft2 450 feet 10 acres 2,000 lbs/ft2 Sources: EWEA (2009), Vestas Offshore

Table D-8. Cost Assumptions Used to Estimate Component and Material Market Values

Table D-8. Cost Assumptions Used to Estimate Component and Material Market Values

A/s (2010 and 2011), Tetra Tech (2010)

Navigant. 2014. Offshore Wind Market & Economic Analysis Underlying Data. U.S. Department of Energy.

The U.S. offshore wind industry is transitioning from early development to demonstration of commercial viability. While there are no commercial-scale projects in operation, there are 14 U.S. projects in advanced development, defined as having either been awarded a lease, conducted baseline or geophysical studies, or obtained a power purchase agreement (PPA).

Globally, offshore wind projects continue to trend farther from shore into increasingly deeper waters; parallel increases in turbine sizes and hub heights are contributing to higher reported capacity factors. While the trend toward greater distances helps reduce visual impacts and public opposition to offshore wind, it also requires advancements in foundation technologies and affects the logistics and costs of installation and maintenance.

The average turbine size for advanced-stage projects in the United States is expected to range between 5.0 and 5.3 MW.

While much of the focus in recent years has been on alternatives to the conventional monopile approach (due to various limitations), the advent of the extra-large (XL) monopile (suitable to a 45 m water depth) may have somewhat lessened the impetus for significant change.

U.S. offshore wind development faces significant challenges: (1) the cost competitiveness of offshore wind energy;2 (2) a lack of infrastructure such as offshore transmission and purpose-built ports and vessels; and (3) uncertain and lengthy regulatory processes.

Key federal policies expired for projects that did not start construction by year-end 2013: the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit (PTC), the Business Energy Investment Tax Credit (ITC), and the 50 percent first-year bonus depreciation allowance.

Expected installed costs for a 500 MW farm are $2.86 Billion or $5,700/kW.

In terms of coal, Navigant analysis reveals executed and planned coal plant retirements through 2020 of nearly 40 GW.

these deeper waters and longer distances present new challenges and opportunities for foundations, drivetrains, installation logistics, and operations and maintenance (O&M). Time will tell how well initial U.S. projects align with those global trends in light of region-specific wind resource and seabed conditions. This section presents an overview of the global offshore

There are approximately 7 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind installations worldwide.

new capacity installed in 2013, most is attributable to four countries – Belgium (192 MW of new capacity), Denmark (400 MW), Germany (230 MW) and the United Kingdom (812 MW) – with the U.K. comprising 47 percent of 2013 additions globally.

Uncertain political support for offshore wind in European nations and the challenges of bringing down costs mean that the pace of capacity growth may level off in the next two years (Global Wind Energy Council [GWEC] 2014).

Table 1-1. Summary of Cumulative Installed Global Offshore Capacity through

WindFloat Pacific (WFP) Seattle, Washington-based Principle Power has proposed to install five semi-submersible, floating foundations outfitted with Siemens 6 MW, direct-drive offshore wind turbines. The project will be sited 15 miles from Coos Bay, Oregon in approximately 350 meters of water. Principle Power maintains that the WindFloat design will be more cost-effective than traditional offshore wind foundations because the entire turbine and floating foundation will be built on shore and installed with conventional tug vessels. The innovations associated with the WindFloat design include the following: ? Static and dynamic stability provide pitch performance low enough to use conventional (i.e., fixed-foundation), commercial offshore turbines ? The design and size allow for onshore assembly and commissioning ? The shallow draft of the semi-submersible foundation allows the assemblies to be sited, transported (via wet tow), and deployed in a wide range of water depths WindFloat’s semi-submersible foundation includes patented water entrapment (heave) plates at the base of each of three vertical columns. A closed-loop, active water ballast system moves water between the columns in the semi-submersible foundation in response to changes in wind force and direction. This allows the mast to remain vertical, thereby optimizing electricity production.

the long-term capital cost increase has been a function of several trends: a movement toward deeper-water sites located farther offshore; increased siting complexity; and higher contingency reserves that result from more limited operational reserves and greater uncertainty when working in the offshore environment (Chapman et al. 2012).

Depth and Distance from Shore

The global trend toward deeper water sites and greater distances from shore continued in 2013, both for completed projects and those newly under construction. With this trend comes increased costs tied to more complex installation in deeper waters, longer export cables (and subsequent line losses), and greater distances for installation and ongoing O&M vessels to travel.

For commercial-scale projects with capacity additions in 2013, the average water depth was about 15 meters, and the average distance from shore was 13 miles.

Vestas V164 8 MW prototype turbine installed in early 2014 has a rotor diameter of 164 meters, greater than any other turbine currently slated for construction through 2015. Its 80 meter blades use a design that abandons the company’s conventional central spar approach (wherein a central “backbone” runs the length of the blade and absorbs most of the structural loads). Instead, the blades incorporate a “structural spar” design that

Samsung S7.0-171 prototype turbine was commissioned in June 2014 at the Fife Energy Park in Scotland (PE 2013). The blade, developed by SSP Technology, also uses carbon and holds the current record for the longest blade ever produced at 83.5 meters (171-meter rotor diameter). The blade is part of Samsung’s 7-MW turbine, which is expected to be deployed in 2015 in South Korea’s first offshore wind plant (CompositeWorld 2013).

Monopiles have historically dominated the offshore wind market. In the U.S., the Cape Wind project has committed to using monopiles to support its 3.6 MW turbines. Despite their popularity and familiarity, these large steel pipes (with diameters between 3 and 7 meters) have recently been challenged as increasing water depths and larger turbines sizes pose challenges related to installation logistics, turbine design, and material costs.

Despite the potential benefits of these XL monopiles, there may still be challenges to overcome. For example, as they continue to increase in size, these larger foundations may encounter limitations in the vessels that can handle their greater size, weight and diameter, which exceed the capabilities of available piling hammers (IHC Merwede 2012, A2SEA 2014).

Multi-piles Lead to Broader Diversity in Design Approaches

For sites in deeper water (from 25 to 60 meters), or with 5 MW and larger turbines, developers have historically shown a preference for multi-pile designs (e.g., jackets and tripods). Jacket structures derive from the common fixed-bottom offshore oil rig design, relying on a three- or four-sided lattice-framed structure that is “pinned” to the seabed using four smaller pilings, with one in each corner of the structure (EWEA 2011; Chapman et al. 2012). The tripod structure utilizes a three-legged structure assembled from steel tubing with a central shaft that consists of the transition piece and the turbine tower (EWEA 2011). Like jackets, the tripod is also pinned to the seabed with smaller pilings.

it is likely that multi-pile substructures will continue to gain market acceptance, especially in water depths greater than 30 meters and at sites with challenging subsea soil conditions.

Recent experience suggests that conventional gravity-base designs may encounter difficulties in water depths greater than 15 meters due to several key challenges:

  1. long fabrication durations to allow for curing of concrete;
  2. high dredging requirements to achieve precise seabed preparation;
  3. reliance on expensive heavy-lift vessels; and
  4. the installation schedules’ high sensitivity to weather conditions.

Shift to HVDC Transmission Lines

As projects have moved further from shore, industry interest in HVDC export cables has increased, as they create lower line losses than conventional HVAC lines. Various complications, however, have slowed the anticipated shift to HVDC over the past few years. For example, Siemens has suffered from significant write-offs (totaling €1.1 billion since 2011) for over-budget transmission HVDC projects intended to link offshore wind farms in the North Sea to the land-based grid (Webb 2014).

Notably, the AC-to-DC converter stations for these projects are enormous, expensive, and present some new logistical challenges for their construction installation. In June 2014, for example, Drydock World announced the completion of the DolWin beta HVDC converter platform, one of two major components for TenneT’s 900-MW DC offshore grid connection in the North Sea. The structure, an adaptation of semi-submersible offshore oil and gas rigs, weighs approximately 23,000 metric tonnes. The top-side equipment alone weighed 10,000 tonnes, and its installation onto the substructure established a new record for heavy lifts. From its construction port in Dubai, the converter station will be loaded onto a heavy lift vessel for transportation to its commission port in Norway, after which it will be towed to the project site. (Marine Log 2014). In response to these recent cost overruns and logistical challenges presented by conversion to HVDC, some developers are opting to reduce risk by instead running increasingly longer distances with AC export cables (Simon 2014).

In the U.S., the two most advanced U. S. projects, which are relatively near shore compared to the larger European projects, will rely on conventional AC transmission. Deepwater’s Block Island project will use a 34.5-kV AC export cable, while Cape Wind, plans to use a 115 -kV AC export cable (Tetra Tech 2012; DOE 2012a).

Developers and contractors have been working to create solutions to the limited availability of vessels, which could represent a potentially limiting factor for the growth rate of the U.S. offshore wind market. The offshore wind project life cycle includes four general phases: pre-construction, construction, project O&M, and decommissioning. Each of these phases comprises various types of services, each typically requiring one or more unique types of vessel.14 Recent developments in North America have focused primarily on vessels used during construction and O&M. As global demand for vessels to serve the offshore wind market has increased, vessel suppliers and construction teams have sought to reduce the time required for installation and for transferring foundations, towers, turbines, and blades to sites farther from shore. In particular, newer jack-up vessels are demonstrating several key trends, including the following:

  • Increasing deck space to facilitate storage of more and larger turbine components per trip
  • Greater crane capacities (i.e., lifting capacity typically greater than 1,000 metric tonnes and hook heights in excess of 105 meters) to lift increasingly large turbine and substructure components
  • Increasingly advanced dynamic positioning (DP2 and DP3) systems to increase operational efficiency and safety
  • Longer jack-up legs to enable lifting operations in deeper waters
  • Greater ability to continue operations in increasingly severe sea states (i.e., wave height limit of at least two meters) to minimize construction downtime

While crane lifting capacity continues to increase, the maximum lifting height appears to be a new key limitation in selecting the construction vessel, as the trend toward larger rotors and taller towers also continues (Hashem 2014). In addition, the impact of moving to XL monopiles is not yet fully understood by the vessel industry; however, there are a few existing vessels capable of lifting these extra-large monopiles’ extreme weights.

The full spectrum of vessels that may be needed at various points in the offshore wind life cycle is discussed in the previous iteration of this annual market assessment, published in October 2013.

16“Platform jacket” is defined as “a single physical component and includes any type of offshore exploration, development, or production structure or component thereof, including platform jackets, tension leg or SPAR platform superstructures (including the deck, drilling rig and support utilities, and supporting structure), hull (including vertical legs and connecting pontoons or vertical cylinder), tower and base sections of a platform jacket, jacket structures, and deck modules (known as “topsides”).

Other strategies being pursued include bottom-fixed foundations that are floating or semi-floating during transit to the installation site. For example, Freshwater Wind’s Shallow Water Wind Optimization for the proposed Great Lakes project relies on semi-floating, gravity-based foundation technology to eliminate the need for installation vessels during foundation installation. Note, however, that these projects would still require “traditional” jack up vessels to install the turbines.

A thriving U.S. offshore wind market will likely require the development of a more robust domestic fleet.

However, a general lack of O&M data for the still relatively young offshore wind industry (most turbines are still under warranty) make it difficult to draw any broad conclusions about the expected long-term costs and trends of O&M offshore wind farms.

Table 3-2. 2014 Detailed Cost Breakdown Cost (2011$) Cost % of Total (2011$ per Capital kW Cost Equipment Costs Turbine Costs $917,500,000 Foundation & Substructure $206,545,000 Collection System $78,490,000 HV Cable, Converter, & Substations $349,109,000 Labor Costs1 Foundation & Substructure Installation Labor $309,828,000 Project Management (Developer/owners $8,500,00 management costs) Development Costs Insurance During Construction $67,000,000 Development Services (Engineering, Legal, PR, $28,900,000 Permitting) Ports & Staging $45,000,000 Erection/Installation (equipment services only) $301,337,000 Air & Marine Transportation $79,890,000 Other Costs Decommissioning Bonding $100,000,000 Interest During Construction $165,843,000 Due diligence, Reserve Accounts, Bank Fees $163,331,000 Miscellaneous $17,394,000 Total Construction Cost2 $2,860,701,000 Source: Navigant analysis

an increased pro-nuclear attitude in the United States, potentially as a way to meet CO2- reduction targets, could reduce offshore wind activity in the United States if the levelized cost of new nuclear plants were to be more attractive than that of offshore wind. In early 2012, the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the construction license for four new nuclear reactors, two in South Carolina and two in Georgia. A fifth reactor is under construction in Tennessee. These would be the first nuclear reactors built from scratch in the last 30 years. If these reactors are successfully completed and become operational, their impact on the future of offshore wind in the United States is unclear. There is also uncertainty around the expected LCOE from these new nuclear plants, as the nuclear industry has not had a strong track record of meeting projected costs and schedules.

Figure 4-2. U.S. Power Generation Capacity Additions by Fuel Type 70

In recent years, some electric utilities in the U.S. have announced plans to retire coal-fired power plants or to convert them to natural gas. There are multiple factors involved in these retirement decisions. Many of the U.S.’s coal-fired power plants are over 50 years old and expensive to continue to operate and maintain. Complying with environmental requirements, such as the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) mercury and air toxics standards can also be costly. Additionally, the rule submitted by the Environmental Protection Agency in June of 2014 to require a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions from existing power plants from 2005 emission levels by 2030 will likely impact retirement plans for existing coal generators. Navigant analysis reveals actual and announced retirements of nearly 40 GW through 2020. There is significant uncertainty in the projection of planned retirements before 2030 due to Section 111 regulations proposed under the Obama Administration’s Climate Action Plan. While the reduction in generation capacity created through coal plant retirements will certainly not be filled entirely by a variable-output resource such as wind, continued coal plant retirements could play a role in increasing the demand for offshore wind plants in the U.S.

U.S. solar installations reached record levels in 2013, accounting for nearly 30 percent of all new electricity generating capacity installations (SEIA 2014). U.S. onshore wind installations fell during 2013 due to the uncertainties in federal tax incentives at the end of 2012.

Wind turbine towers require significant quantities of steel, while foundations may require concrete and/or steel. Since towers represent about 7-8 percent of the cost of an offshore wind farm and the foundations and substructures represent about 22-25 percent (Navigant 2012), the level of construction activity in the United States outside of the offshore wind sector could impact the price of offshore wind power. Figure 4-4 shows the evolution of commodity prices since 2002, which is a trend of generally increasing (and volatile in the case of steel) prices.

Manufacturing 4.5.1 Change in Manufacturing of Products That Utilize Similar Types of Raw Materials as Offshore Wind

The manufacturing sector similarly uses many of the same raw materials as offshore wind. The manufacture of automobiles, heavy equipment, and appliances, for example, requires significant amounts of steel, a material used in wind turbine towers and offshore foundations. Manufacturing sectors such as aerospace, automotive, and marine vessels use composite materials similar to those used in wind turbine blades. Finally, rare earth materials such as neodymium are used in applications such as the permanent magnets that are used in certain types of electric motors and electrical generators, including those in many direct drive wind turbine generators. The DOE (DOE 2010) estimates that supply situation for rare earth oxides of neodymium and dysprosium will be “critical” not only over the short term (2010- 2015) but also over the medium term (2015-2025). The supply risk for praseodymium was characterized as “not critical”. Criticality matrices from this report are shown in Figure 4-5.

A 2012 report from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Materials Systems Laboratory agrees that neodymium and dysprosium will face supply challenges in the coming years (Alonso et al. 2012). If the supply situation for rare earth metals remains tight and prices rise, so could the cost of offshore wind production.

Change in Demand for Subsea Cable-Laying Vessels

The specialized vessels that are appropriate for subsea cable-laying are relatively few in supply and high in demand (Navigant Research 2012). Not only are these vessels in high demand in Europe for offshore wind projects; many of them are also used to lay subsea cable for the telecommunications industry. An increase in deployment of subsea cables by global telecommunications companies could increase the development costs of offshore wind farms.

Cost-Competitiveness of Offshore Wind Energy Capital costs for the first generation of U.S. offshore wind projects are expected to be approximately $6,000 per installed kW, compared with approximately $1,940 per installed kW for U.S. land-based wind projects in 2012 (Wiser and Bollinger 2013). Offshore projects have higher capital costs for a number of reasons, including turbine upgrades required for operation at sea, turbine foundations, balance-of-system (BOS) infrastructure, the high cost of building at sea, and O&M warranty risk adjustments. These costs remain high because the offshore wind industry is immature and learning curve effects have not yet been fully realized. There are also a number of one-time costs incurred with the development of an offshore wind project, such as vessels for turbine installation, port and harbor upgrades, manufacturing facilities, and workforce training. Offshore wind energy also has a higher LCOE than comparable technologies. In addition to higher capital costs, offshore wind has higher O&M costs as a result of its location at sea. Higher permitting, transmission, and grid integration costs contribute to this higher cost of energy, which can be

Infrastructure Challenges

Offshore wind turbines are currently not manufactured in the United States. Domestic manufacturing needs to be in place in the United States in order for the industry to fully develop. The absence of a mature industry results in a lack of experienced labor for manufacturing, construction, and operations. Workforce training must therefore be part of the upfront costs for U.S. projects. The infrastructure required to install offshore wind farms, such as purpose-built ports and vessels, does not currently exist in the United States. There is also insufficient capability for domestic operation and maintenance.

The absence of strong demand for offshore wind in the United States makes it difficult to overcome these technical and infrastructure challenges. In order to develop the required infrastructure and technical expertise, there must first be sufficient demand for offshore wind, and that is not expected in the near term due to the high cost of offshore wind and the low cost of competing power generation resources, such as natural gas.

Regulatory Challenges A.3.1 Permitting

Offshore wind projects in the United States are facing new permitting processes. After issuing the Final Rule governing offshore wind leasing on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) in 2009, the Minerals Management Service (MMS)—now BOEM—staff estimated that the lease process might require three EISs and may extend seven to nine years.

Construction and operations plans proposing the installation of renewable energy generation facilities would be subject to additional project specific environmental reviews.

A number of state and federal entities have authority over the siting, permitting, and installation of offshore wind facilities. Cognizant federal agencies include BOEM, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), the EPA, the FWS, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Marine Fisheries Service, and others.

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