Booklist: Trump, Russia, Drugs U.S. History, Politics, Corruption, Feminism

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Drugs

American History

  • R Chernow. Grant. 2017
  • N Isenberg. White Trash: the 400-year untold history of class in America
  • B Bailyn. The barbarous years. The peopling of British North America. The conflict of civilizations 1600-1675
  • DJ Silverman.  Thundersticks (guns and how they affected American Indians)
  • SC Gwynne. Empire of the Summer Moon: Quanah Parker and the Rise and Fall of the Comanches, the Most Powerful Indian Tribe in American History
  • B Obama. A promised land.
  • C Johnson. The Sorrows of Empire: Militarism, Secrecy, and the End of the Republic
  • E Larson. The Devil in the White City: Murder, Magic, and Madness at the Fair That Changed America 
  • RA Caro. The Power Broker: Robert Moses and the Fall of New York
  • RA Caro. The path to Power: The Years of Lyndon Johnson I
  • RA Caro. Means of Ascent: The Years of Lyndon Johnson II
  • RA Caro. Master of the Senate: The years of Lyndon Johnson III
  • RA Caro. The passage of power: The Years of Lyndon Johnson IV
  • S Schiff.  The witches: Salem, 1692
  • D Priest. Top Secret America: The Rise of the New American Security State
  • T Wolfe. The Right Stuff.
  • J Barry. The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
  • P Fussell. Class: A Guide Through the American Status System
  • M Levinson. The box: how the shipping container made the world smaller (my note: this is what made globalization possible)
  • V Jenkins. The Lawn. A history of an American Obsession
  • C Knowlton. Cattle kingdom. The hidden history of the cowboy west.
  • M Sperber. Beer and Circus: How Big-Time College Sports Is Crippling Education
  • J Ryan. Little Girls in Pretty Boxes: Making and Breaking of elite gymnasts & figure skaters
  • J Doyle. Taken for a ride: Detroit’s big three and the politics of pollution.
  • JC Scott. Seeing like a state. How certain schemes to improve the human condition have failed.
  • JB Freeman. Behemoth. A History of the Factory and the Making of the Modern World 
  • D Allosso. Peppermint Kings: A Rural American History
  • P Pagnamenta. Prairie Fever: British Aristocrats in the American West 1830-1890 

American Politics, Authoritarianism, & the End of Democracy 

Trump and books about why Americans voted for him

American Corruption

  • J Hari. Chasing the scream. The first and last days of the war on drugs
  • JM Feinman. Delay Deny Defend. Why insurance companies don’t pay claims and what you can do about it.
  • F Vogl. The Enablers: How the West Supports Kleptocrats and Corruption – Endangering Our Democracy
  • S Chayes. On Corruption in America: And What Is at Stake And What Is at Stake
  • A Glantz. Homewreckers: How a Gang of Wall Street Kingpins, Hedge Fund Magnates, Crooked Banks, and Vulture Capitalists Suckered Millions Out of Their Homes and Demolished the American Dream
  • J Eisinger. The chickenshit club. Why the justice department fails to prosecute executives
  • J Lanchester. I.O.U. Why everyone owes everyone and no one can pay
  • G Morgenson. Reckles$ endangerment. How outsized ambition, greed, and corruption led to economic Armageddon
  • AR Sorkin. Too big to fail. The inside story of how Wall Street & Washington fought to save the financial system—and themselves
  • C Bruck. The predators’ ball: the inside story of Drexel Burnham and the rise of the Jumkbond raiders
  • D Matthew. Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City
  • F. Partnoy. Infections greed: how deceit and risk corrupted the financial markets
  • C Ferguson. Predator nation. Corporate criminals, political corruption, and the hijacking of America
  • M Taibbi. Smells like dead elephants: Dispatches from a rotting empire
  • S. Das. Extreme money. Masters of the universe and the cult of risk
  • W Pavlo. Stolen without a gun: confessions from inside history’s biggest accounting fraud – the collapse of MCI Worldcom
  • R Lowenstein. When genius failed: the rise and fall of long-term capital management
  • C Cooper. Extraordinary circumstances: the journey of a corporate whistleblower
  • BL Toffler. Final accounting: Ambition, greed, and the fall of Arthur Andersen
  • K Eichenwald. Serpent on the rock: Crime, betrayal and the terrible secrets of Prudential Bache
  • M Zuckoff. Ponzi’s scheme: the true story of a financial legend
  • A Kirtzman. Betrayal: the life and lies of Bernie Madoff
  • J Belfort. Catching the wolf of Wall street.
  • D Grann. Killers of the flower moon: the Osage murders & the birth of the FBI
  • F Portnoy. Fiasco. The inside story of a wall street trader
  • L Leopold. The looting of America: How wall street’s game of fantasy finance destroyed our jobs, pensions, and prosperity—and what we can do about it
  • JB Stewart. Den of Thieves.
  • K Calavita. Big money crime: fraud and politics in the savings and loan crisis
  • D Vine. Base Nation: American Empire Project.
  • M Lewis. Liar’s Poker: Rising Through the Wreckage on Wall Street

Slavery, prison, eviction

Russian politics and corruption

  • M Gessen. The Future Is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia.
  • P Pomerantsev. Nothing is true and everything is possible: the surreal heart of the new Russia
  • N Malcolm. The Plot to Destroy Democracy. How Putin and His Spies Are Undermining America and Dismantling the West. 
  • M Isikoff. Russian Roulette: The Inside Story of Putin’s War on America and the Election of Donald Trump. 
  • M Galeotti. Vory. Russias Super Mafia. Yale University Press.
  • C Belton. Putin’s People: How the KGB Took Back Russia and Then Took On the West
  • L Harding. Collusion: Secret Meetings, Dirty Money, and How Russia Helped Donald Trump Win.
  • R Maddow. Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth. Crown.

Feminism and Women’s history

  • S Simard. Finding the Mother Tree
  • L Cooke. Bitch: On the female of the species
  • P Orenstein. Girls & Sex: Navigating the Complicated New Landscape
  • HA Garcia. Sex, Power, and Partisanship: How Evolutionary Science Makes Sense of Our Political Divide
  • R Miles. Who Cooked the Last Supper: The Women’s History of the World
  • K Manne. Entitled: How Male Privilege Hurts Women  
  • R Solnit. Men Explain Things to Me: And Other Essays
  • E Freedman. The Essential Feminist Reader
  • S McCurry. Women’s War: Fighting and Surviving the American Civil War
  • M Chollet. In Defense of Witches: The Legacy of the Witch Hunts and Why Women Are Still on Trial

Female Rulers

  • J Chang. Empress Dowager Cixi: The Concubine Who Launched Modern China
  • E Lev. The Tigress of Forli. Renaissance Italy’s most courageous and notorious countess, Caterina Riario Sforza de’ Medici
  • J Weatherford. The secret history of the Mongol queens: how the daughters of Genghis Khan rescued his empire
  • S Schiff. Cleopatra: A life
  • S Puhak. The Dark Queens: The Bloody Rivalry That Forged the Medieval World
  • K Pangonis. Queens of Jerusalem: The Women Who Dared to Rule
  • J DeJean. Mutinous Women: How French Convicts Became Founding Mothers of the Gulf Coast
  • J Baird. Victoria: The Queen: An Intimate Biography of the Woman Who Ruled an Empire

Female Spies

  • K Abbott. Liar, Temptress, Soldier, Spy: Four Women Undercover in the Civil War
  • J Pearson. Wolves at the Door: The True Story Of America’s Greatest Female Spy
  • S Purnell. A Woman of No Importance: The Untold Story of the American Spy Who Helped Win World War II

Economics & Investing

Now that we’re at the end of growth, have a distribution of wealth worse than before the Great Depression, and a future crash given the utter lack of economic reforms and growing debt, this is not a good time to invest!

  • C.A.S. Hall, Energy & the Wealth of Nations: Understanding the Biophysical economy
  • R. Heinberg. The end of growth: Adapting to our new economic reality
  • E. Lefevre. Reminiscences of a stock operator: with new commentary and insights on the life and times of Jesse Livermore
  • M. Lewis. Liar’s poker.
  • D. Liss. The coffee trader.
  • W. Bonner. The new empire of debt: the rise and fall of an epic financial bubble
  • W. Bonner. Mobs, messiahs, and markets: Surviving the public spectacle in finance and politics
  • N. N. Taleb. Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets.
  • B. Mann. Republic of debtors. Bankruptcy in the age of American independence
  • S. Das. Traders, guns & money: knowns and unknowns in the dazzling world of derivatives
  • J. Rothchild. A fool and his money: the odyssey of an average investor
  • E. Chancellor. Devil take the hindmost: A history of financial speculation
  • A. Wiggin. Financial reckoning day fallout: surviving today’s global depression

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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George W. Bush home in Crawford Texas

Rose Marie Berger. The Texas Two-Step. George W. and Laura Bush’s new Crawford, Texas home boasts a stunning array of eco-friendly features—perhaps not what you’d expect from one of the least environmentally friendly administrations since…um, creation.

http://www.sojo.net/magazine/index.cfm/action/sojourners/issue/soj0107/article/010722.html

The Bush ranch house in Crawford was designed by Austin environmental architect David Heymann, and built by members of a religious community from nearby Elm Mott, George W. and Laura Bush’s dream home is built of a BTU-efficient, honey-toned native limestone quarried from the nearby Edwards Limestone Formation.

The passive-solar house is positioned to absorb winter sunlight, warming the interior walkways and walls. Underground water, which remains a constant 55 degrees year-round, is piped through a heat exchange system that keeps the interior warm in winter and cool in summer. A gray water reclamation system treats and reuses waste water. Rain gutters feed a cistern hooked to a sprinkler system for watering the fruit orchard and grass. Clearly, Bush goes home from the White House to a green house.

Melinda Suchecki. Western White House Turns Green with Innovative Onsite Treatment System 

http://www.nowra.org/?p=186

The George W. Bush 1500-acre ranch is located near Crawford, Texas, about 30 miles west of Waco. Aside from the gray and black water recycling and irrigation systems, the home features geothermal heating, active and passive solar energy, and a rainwater collection system with a 40,000-gallon underground cistern. The purpose of the cistern and a separate gray water system is for surface irrigation of fruit trees.

According to Ron, “We worked with the architects and plumbers to ensure that there was separation of the gray and black water lines and confirmed their separation prior to the pour of the slab. There was resistance at first on the part of the plumbers; however, once they understood what we were trying to do, everything went off without a hitch. One person told me there was ‘no way they would get it all right, it would be too easy to cross the lines.’ My response was, ‘Then how do they keep the hot and cold water separate?'”

The black water system features over 2,000 gallons of pre-treatment and equalization tanks which meter close to a 1,000 GPD Hoot Aerobic System. However, the treatment process doesn’t stop there. The effluent leaves the aerobic system through a Polylok Effluent Filter and enters a recirculating media filter, which acts like a sand filter. The effluent passes through a unique medium several times prior to discharge from the filter, where it passes through yet another media filter before enter-ing the pump tank. “With this design, we were able to incorporate the high efficiency of an extended aerobic system with the startup and shock load capability of a sand filter. However, the established aeration system will prevent the potential plug-ging effect seen in sand filters because the water enters in 95% reduced of both BOD and TSS.”

The effluent leaves the recirculating filter and is stored in a pump tank. The Hoot Control Center operates the Lighthouse Beacon Filtration System. The filter not only performs effluent filtration, but automatically back-flushes and performs scheduled field flush cycles as well. The effluent is filtered through the 3-dimensional, 100-micron filter before being pumped 350 feet away to a four-zone drip irrigation field. The drip tubing is Netafim Bioline .62 GPH and features a pressure-compensating emitter design. The pressure-compensating design ensures even distribution throughout the entire field. The zones are automatically advanced each time the system doses, ensuring even distribution. If low levels of water usage are observed, the system can utilize just one zone to encourage plant growth.

Further complicating the design was the system location. If the system was to gravity flow, it would require all the treatment equipment to be placed right out-side the bedroom of George and Laura, between them and their new 7-acre lake. This proved to be unacceptable.

The system needed both gray and black water lift stations from the main house to pump to the location of the equipment, over 500 feet away behind the garage. The guest house gravity flows to the system. All of the controls are remotely mounted inside a specially designed utility room inside the middle of the garage. Over two miles of wiring were used to complete the remote location project.

Each tank has duplex pumps and a separate, independent alarm circuit that goes to an alarm system control panel. The system has the ability to remotely alert if one of the duplex pumps fails, latch to the next, then independently alert of a high water situation. This system is in every tank, and works even in the event of a power failure. The system is remotely monitored by an alarm company that can tell service personnel exactly what the problem is and a determination can be made if it requires immediate attention, or if a problem can wait until the next day. For example, if one of the pumps in the recirculation system has failed, then it may not require immediate attention. “If there is a high water level in the lift station on the main house,” Ron asserted, “well, there will be three of us racing to see who gets out there first.”

The Hoot systems, lift stations, and standard as well as custom tanks to complete the project were all pre-cast concrete, made by CPI of Waco, Texas. Mark Kieran of Brazos Wastewater was the installer of the system, with the majority of the hookup being completed by Ron, Jim, and Jim’s father, Frank Prochaska, from Lorena, Texas.

The incorporation of an innovative onsite wastewater strategy is a testament to the acceptance of onsite as a long-term treatment solution. The Bushes’ incorporation of environmentally sensitive approaches to their new home is an example of what individuals can do to create a better place for us all to live.

http://www.hootsystems.com/bush.pdf

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2001/08/20010825-2.html

they’ve also got pecan trees, canyons with rivers and wood, wild areas with game, etc.

Posted in Where are the rich going | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

By 2020 it may be clear to everyone that oil decline has begun

Preface. There are two parts to Dittmar’s study. The first one concerns production, based on the most recent years of oil production.  Dittmar found a strong pattern of oil decline after the plateau of 3% a year for five years, followed by a decline of 6% a year thereafter.

The assumption that OPEC nations (i.e. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, UAE, and Qatar) can continue producing oil at the current rate is based on potentially exaggerated reserve figures, which went up substantially in 1985 and haven’t budged a barrel down since then.  But for OPEC, and all other regions and nations, Dittmar predicts the maximum possible production based on his model, and says that perhaps the Middle Eastern OPEC nations can continue to produce as much oil as they are now until 2050.

In my opinion, he overestimates the amount of North American tight shale oil and tar sands oil that can be produced given their low EROI’s and high energy/monetary cost, but since all his figures are the best possible, he assigns 4.5 million barrels per day (mbd) production for USA tight oil through 2030 and 3 mbd for Canadian tight oil plus oil sands.

Of course, no matter how accurate the model is, Dittmar points out that it won’t matter if a civil war, terrorism or natural disasters in any oil-producing or refining region occur, which would quickly reduce exports. Plus competition for the remaining oil might increase conflicts the current world’s major powers with catastrophic consequences. The model only applies to a stable world for the next 30 years.

Here are the nations already declining at 6%: the EU and Norway, Azerbaijan (2017), Asian nations Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia, Thailand, Vietnam (2016), Algeria (2015), and Mexico (2014). All other oil-producing nations will join the 6% club by 2031 except OPEC.  Many are already in their 3% decline state, which starts 5 years earlier. Western Russia & Siberia (2020), Eastern Siberia (2030), Kazakhstan (2029), China (2020), India (2025) Egypt (2026), Nigeria (2025), Angola (2019), Sub-Saharan Africa (2026), Venezuela (2025), Brazil, Ecuador & all other South & Central American nations (2021), United States conventional (2021), Canadian conventional (2018).

Part 2 deals with consumption. It appears to me that Asia is the big winner, especially China and India.  All of the Eastern Siberian Russian oil will go to Asia through existing or planned pipelines. Over 80% of Middle Eastern OPEC oil goes to Asia now—and this is likely to continue since Asia is four times closer than Europe or North America.  Plus Asia makes the goods that the Middle East wants.  Yes, the U.S. could trade for food, but Middle Eastern countries have already bought vast tracts of land in Africa, South America, farms in the U.S., and elsewhere.

Dittmar alludes to a potential financial crash because our economic system depends on continual growth. This too would reduce production and exports from the last nations still producing oil in the Middle East.  Nor does he mention their populations are still growing exponentially and consuming their own oil exponentially as well, leaving less to export.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

***

Dittmar, M. 2017. A Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption Model. Part II: Predicting the declines in regional oil consumption. Physics and Society.

By 2020 it may be clear to almost everyone that the current oil-based way of life in the developed and developing countries has begun a terminal decline.

Aside from the OPEC Middle East region, where a rather stable production is modelled for the next 15 to 20 years, production in essentially all other regions is predicted to be declining by 3 to 5% per year after 2020, and some are already declining at this rate.

Based on the evolution of intercontinental oil exports during the past decade, it is predicted that in the near future Western Europe will not be able to replace steeply declining exports from the FSU countries, and especially from Russia. Hence total consumption in Western Europe is predicted to be about 20% lower in 2020 than it was in 2015. For similar reasons, although the export sources are different, total consumption in the U.S. is predicted to be about 10% lower.

Further, it is predicted that neither India nor China will be able to continue their rapid oil consumption growth. At best both countries might be able to stabilize per capita oil consumption close to their current relatively low levels through 2025 by outcompeting other countries in Asia. To put it mildly, the obtained modeled results for future regional oil consumption in almost every part of the planet disagree strongly with essentially all economic-growth-based scenarios like the one from the IEA in their latest WEO 2016 report. Such scenarios assume ongoing growth and would have us believe that the oil required to support such growth will be discovered and produced. It won’t.

The consequences of the declines in oil production will be felt in all regions but OPEC Middle East countries.

Our model predictions indicate that several of the larger oil consuming and importing countries and regions will be confronted with the economic consequences of the onset of the world’s final oil supply crisis as early as 2020. In particular, during the next few years a reduction of the average per capita oil consumption of about 5%/year is predicted for most OECD countries in Western Europe, and slightly smaller reductions, about 2-3%/year, is predicted for all other oil importing countries and regions. The consequences of the predicted oil supply crisis are thoroughly at odds with business-as-usual, never-ending-global-growth predictions of oil production and consumption.

Other factors affecting global oil production:

  1. The quality of the remaining crude and energy/cost to refine it
  2. Since crude oil can’t be used directly, but must be refined, nations with refineries import more oil than they return to exporting nations without refineries. Though if these poor oil producing nations build refineries they’d be able to lower their exports and increase their standard of living.

Whenever terminal decline in all nations begins, one can only hope that people around the globe will be able to learn, quickly, how to live with less and less oil every year, and how to avoid war and other forms of violence, as we travel the path to a future with less and less oil.

 

Posted in Exports decline to ZERO, How Much Left, Peak Oil | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Want to go off-grid? You might need hundreds of Tesla batteries

Preface. Although you may not be as far north as Victoria, British Columbia (48.4 latitude), you’d ideally want to be at 30 degrees or less latitude from the equator to even consider the expense of off-grid solar power.  And even then you’ll need to be wealthy. Keep in mind that the Tesla Powerwall 2 is $5,500 for the battery alone, plus about $1500 additional charges for installation and other components.

If you’re getting solar for when TSHTF, you’d better have a lot of spare parts and enough mechanical bent to fix the system yourself until the batteries die…

 — Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

***

November 23, 2017. Want to go off-grid? You might need hundreds of Tesla batteries.The Climate Examiner, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions.

Going completely off-grid is infeasible for most households in Western Canada, energy systems modellers conclude, due to the diminished amount of sun in our northern latitude. To “cut the cables” to the electricity grid, requires an impractical number of batteries or solar panels.

Note that:

  • The scenarios below do not account for electricity needs to heat homes or charge electric vehicles
  • Fewer solar panels = you need more batteries
  • Fewer batteries = you need more solar panels

Families in BC use solar panels on their roof and install batteries in their garage because they want to reduce electricity costs or do their part to help reduce emissions. Some have dreams of one day going entirely off-grid. So researchers with the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions’ 2060 energy future pathways project modeled just how feasible this would be.

They used 2016 data from a typical three-bedroom house in Victoria with an annual load—or average electricity demand—of 9,600 kilowatt hour (kWh). The house uses natural gas for its heating and a conventional gasoline vehicle, meaning no extra load from these sources.

A common PV system is 12 kilowatts (kW) as a larger PV system requires more roof. Researchers found that given Victoria’s solar irradiance, a 12 kW PV system needs a 1,766 kWh battery to achieve self-sufficiency. This is equivalent to 131 Tesla Powerwalls.

Another option is to reduce the size of battery and buy a larger PV system, as more energy is available and thus less needs to be stored. If a homeowner bought a 30-kW PV system, they could get away with a 289 kWh battery (equivalent to 21 Powerwalls). But this PV system would require an area of roughly 300 square meters (3,200 square feet)—about the size of a tennis court.

They ran the numbers for Vancouver, Kelowna and Calgary. The results for Vancouver and Kelowna similar to Victoria. But Calgary, with its clearer winters, required less PV and battery capacity to be self-sufficient. Calgarians could make do with a 9 kW PV system and about 62 Powerwalls. With a 30 kW PV system, taking up 240 m2 (2,475 square feet), the homeowner needs roughly 10 Powerwalls.

But in these clear, cold places, the electricity demand of the household rises due to the electrification of heating and transport so the prospect of self-sufficiency is even further out of reach. The researchers found that the increase in demand from heating via electric baseboards at least a 22 kW PV system and 236 Powerwalls. Newer technologies, such as heat pumps would have a reduced impact on electricity demand.

The projections for the number of batteries seem mind-boggling, but they are in line with storage requirement assessments for other jurisdictions.

Posted in Batteries, Photovoltaic Solar | Tagged , , | 11 Comments

Hurricanes will lower Gulf and East Coast carrying capacity

Preface. There are 2 articles here. The first is about the tremendous environmental damage that occurs after a hurricane.

The second are excerpts from a National Academy of Sciences report discussing how New Orleans and much of the gulf and east coast remain vulnerable to severe weather, and require help from the federal government to recover.  Clearly as climate change worsens this will only become more of a problem in the future, and harm more and more people, since now 50% of Americans live within 50 miles of a coast.  Declining energy means that rescues will not be as large, and more and more infrastructure remain unrepaired, forcing migrations inland.  Awareness of limits to growth and finite fossil fuels may be painful to contemplate, but if it inspires you to move to a more sustainable region, perhaps a longer and happier life.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts:  KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity]

Cleaning up hurricane destruction will become much harder as the energy to do so declines

What follows is research from several articles about cleanup after hurricans strike.

650 energy and industrial facilities in Texas flooded by Harvey, where toxic runoff could pose a risk to local residents according to the Union of concerned scientists.

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma left a hell of a mess—millions of tons of debris, much of it toxic. Houston officials said this week it will cost at least $200 million to dispose of 8 million cubic yards of storm debris.

More than 100,000 homes in Houston are damaged.

Wood, plaster, drywall, metal, oil, electronics—all of it waterlogged. Put it into unlined landfills and it can contaminate groundwater. The gypsum in drywall decomposes into hydrogen sulfide gas.

Two weeks after Hurricane Harvey ravished the Houston area, mountains of drywall, carpeting, furniture, electronics, appliances, clothing, and other water-destroyed personal effects were stacked in front of homes that had been flooded. Crews were still working around the clock to get debris out of homes and off streets.

After any disaster that causes water damage, cleaning up-as swiftly as possible-is critically important to reduce the spread of disease. As flood waters rise, sewer systems back up and overflow, causing contaminated water to enter homes. Disease-causing bacteria bloom quickly in water-soaked material. Damp surfaces are also ideal environments for mold colonies to flourish. Everything that has been soaked by flood waters must be removed and disposed of. Houses must be thoroughly dried out, aired out, and meticulously cleaned.

Reuters reported that cleanup after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 took about a year. Hugh Kaufman, a retired EPA solid waste and emergency response analyst said the overall bill for Katrina was $2 billion, the largest to date. That cleanup spanned several states and the demolition of the more than 23,000 homes in the New Orleans area alone. He believes the combined cleanup tab for Harvey and Irma will top Katrina‘s.

These wastes should be separated out and disposed of, but that rarely happens after a disaster.

The city of Houston estimates the cost to clean up the debris will be about $200 million to clean up the mess from Hurricane Harvey.

there isn’t a pile specifically for recycling. There are a few reasons for this. First, recycling materials that have been soaked in water, and in most cases contaminated water, is quite difficult. Water has a tendency to ruin materials that could have been recycled.

When you have mounds of damp material in front of thousands of homes, mold is a major concern. It’s estimated that there are more than 100,000 piles of debris across Houston alone. Every home we entered had at least some mold already appearing inside. This damp and contaminated material needs to be removed as quickly as possible.

Even when cities try to get residents to make separate piles for regular garbage, building materials, large appliances, yard waste, and electronics, most tend to put everything in one giant pile.

Nearly 100 crews are moving through the city to pick up these huge piles. Using backhoes, the debris is picked up and dumped into the backs of open-top semis and other trucks, which are then hauling this waste off to one of several different landfills. The sad truth with most hurricane cleanup is that the waste nearly all ends up in landfills instead of being sorted and disposed of in a more environmentally conscious way.

NRC. 2011. Increasing National Resilience to Hazards and Disasters: The Perspective from the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Mississippi: Summary of a Workshop.  The National Academies Press.  Excerpts below.

***

Natural disasters are having an increasing effect on the lives of people in the United States and throughout the world. Every decade, property damage caused by natural disasters and hazards doubles or triples in the United States. More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast, and all Americans are at risk from such hazards as fires, earthquakes, floods, and wind. The year 2010 saw 950 natural catastrophes around the world—the second highest annual total ever—with overall losses estimated at $130 billion.

A consequence of the widespread construction of levees was subsidence of the land. When the areas behind levees were drained, the land compacted and lowered, increasing the susceptibility of housing to extreme damage if the levees failed or were overtopped.

The lessons that should have been learned from Betsy and other hurricanes were not heeded before Katrina, and many of these lessons still are not being heeded. Although the levees are under repair and new surge barriers are in place, the city’s footprint has not been fundamentally reduced, even though the corps no longer considers the levees around New Orleans to provide protection against a 100-year flood event. Today, many houses in New Orleans are below sea level, and even some of the houses built after Katrina are ill suited for high water. After a protracted public process, New Orleans adopted a plan that opens the entire city to redevelopment while targeting certain areas for rebuilding, renewal, and redevelopment. Building can occur in most of the areas that were flooded and remain susceptible to future floods.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita combined caused an estimated $150 billion in damages across the Gulf Coast. The federal government spent an estimated $126 billion on the recovery effort, but much of that money went to such short-term measures as emergency rescue operations and short-term housing. Only about $45 billion of that money went to rebuilding. Private insurance provided about $30 billion for reconstruction, and philanthropies provided about $6 billion—three times as much as for any other event in history. Even with expenditures of that magnitude, a gap of about $70 billion remains

Renters in the city and suburbs still pay too much of their earnings toward housing. In Orleans Parish, 58% of renters, and 45% of renters in the metropolitan area, pay more than 35% of their pretax household income toward housing, compared with 41% of renters nationally.

Meanwhile, coastal wetlands have continued to erode. More than 23 percent of the land around the New Orleans Metropolitan Area has been lost since measurements began in 1956; the impact of the oil disaster on the wetlands has not yet been measured

Before Hurricane Hugo hit South Carolina in 1989, the United States had not experienced a single disaster that cost the insurance industry more than $1 billion,

Since then, as more and more development has occurred in hazard-prone areas, the cost of natural disasters has gone up “exponentially,” with losses for 2000–2010 exceeding $800 billion

Given that the value of property vulnerable to hurricanes from Texas to Maine is an estimated $9 trillion, retrofitting is essential.

During the 1993 flood on the Mississippi River, the Des Moines Water Plant flooded and was out of operation for weeks. “It shut down the city,” said Gerald Galloway, Jr., the Glenn L. Martin Institute Professor of Engineering at the University of Maryland, College Park. “When a major part of the infrastructure that supports a community goes under, the community can go under at the same time.

The Sewerage and Water Board of New Orleans is responsible for providing drinking water, wastewater, and storm water services for the city of New Orleans. Following the storm, the wastewater treatment plant contained 18 feet of water, and the city cannot exist without viable wastewater treatment. The plant was dewatered within about 10 days of the closure of the federal levee system, and it was doing primary treatment 30 days after that.

The Sewerage and Water Board could not make these and other advances without partners. For example, protecting the city from an incoming storm surge is the responsibility of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Sewerage and Water Board is working with the corps to rebuild infrastructures around the levee system. The agency is also responsible for the purification and distribution of drinking water, which requires electrical power. The agency has relied in part on a 1903 25-cycle power plant that is being rebuilt to be more sustainable and reliable.

A major challenge of Katrina was that 80 percent of the agency’s team had lost their homes. The people who were on duty the day of the storm were suddenly homeless.

The agency also had to spend more than $1 billion in restoration and recovery without being able to draw on the capital market, but disaster recovery through the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) generally involves a reimbursement process. Thus, it was not just the physical and human infrastructure but the financial infrastructure that had to be rebuilt. Future climate change could pose severe challenges to the drinking water system, St. Martin said. If sea level or the volume of water coming down the Mississippi River changes, water quality, the ability to treat water, and the availability of water could all be compromised.

During Katrina, New Orleans lost 31 streetcars, which cost an average of $1.2 million per car to rebuild. It also lost 80% of its bus fleet. That’s not a capital cost you can replace very easily,

In addition, the streetcar network is powered by an electrical grid. In an emergency, the streetcar system needs additional substations that are singly powered for emergency purposes. Public transportation is part of the emergency evacuation system in New Orleans. When government officials tell populations to evacuate, some people will not react.

Operating the public transportation requires people. But drivers and other employees have wives and children who also need to evacuate, and procedures need to be in place to accommodate that process. People are also needed to rebuild the physical infrastructure.

Entergy Corporation is an integrated energy company headquartered in New Orleans that employs nearly 15,000 people. It has about 2.7 million electric customers and 180,000 gas customers in the states of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Texas. It has 15,500 miles of transmission line, 100,000 miles of distribution line, 30 fossil fuel plants, and nine nuclear power plants.

The dependability of other infrastructure functions is critical to the energy industry. Reliable post-storm communications are essential. Transportation systems are needed to recover quickly. Particular components of the infrastructure also require special attention.

Preparing for disasters is a long-term process, which can conflict with the short-term perspectives that are common in government. How can preparations “outlast the 4-year terms of elected officials, the 2-year terms of elected officials, or the 30-second disasters that wreak havoc on our community?” asked Ellis Stanley, director of western emergency management services at Dewberry LLC, who moderated the third panel at the workshop. In addition, governance occurs at multiple levels, from the neighborhood to the federal level, requiring that the various elements of governance be integrated.

Posted in Extreme Weather, Hurricanes, Sea Level Rise | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Hurricanes will lower Gulf and East Coast carrying capacity

Booklist: Travel, Psychology, World history, Food, Anthropology, (Auto)biography, Cults, Religion

More booklists

Travel & Science

  • A Wulf.  The Invention of Nature: The adventures of Alexander von Humboldt, the lost hero of science.
  • R Conniff. The Species Seekers: Heroes, Fools, and the Mad Pursuit of Life on Earth
  • R Sapolsky. A Primate’s Memoir
  • M Owens. Cry of the Kalahari
  • L Stetson.  The Wild Muir: 22 of John Muir’s Greatest Adventures
  • D Grann. The Lost City of Z: A Tale of Deadly Obsession in the Amazon
  • D Preston. The lost city of the Monkey God: a true story
  • A Lansing. Endurance. Shackleton’s incredible voyage.
  • W Carlsen. Jungle of Stone: The Extraordinary Journey of Stephens and Catherwood, & the Discovery of the Lost Civilization of the Maya

Travel

  • W Ferguson. Hokkaido Highway Blues
  • A Frater. Chasing the Monsoon: A Modern Pilgrimage through India
  • JM Troost. Sex Lives of Cannibals. Adrift in the Equatorial Pacific
  • JM Troost. Getting Stoned with Savages: A Trip Through the Islands of Fiji and Vanuatu
  • S Orlean. The Orchid Thief. A true story of beauty and obsession.
  • W Thesiger. Arabian Sands
  • J Campbell. The Final Frontiersman. Heimo Korth & His Family
  • B Braverman. Welcome to the goddamn ice cube: chasing fear and finding home in the great white north
  • E Becker. Overbooked: the exploding business of travel and tourism
  • F Hatfield. North of the sun. A memoir of the Alaskan Wilderness
  • T Horwitz. Confederates in the Attic. Dispatches from the Unfinished Civil War
  • C Hoffman. The Last Wild Men of Borneo: A True Story of Death and Treasure
  • S Gallaher. Sisters. Coming of Age & living dangerously in the Wild Copper river
  • C Strayed. Wild: From Lost to Found on the Pacific Crest Trail
  • J Kane. Savages.
  • S Mehta. Maximum City: Bombay Lost and Found
  • D King. Skeletons on the Zahara: A True Story of Survival
  • R O’Hanlon. In Trouble Again: A Journey Between Orinoco and the Amazon.
  • M Tidwell. The Ponds of Kalambayi: An African Sojourn
  • S Erdman. Nine Hills to Nambonkaha: Two Years in the Heart of an African Village
  • J McPhee. Coming into the Country
  • B Bryson. I’m a stranger here myself: notes on returning to America after 20 years away
  • S Huntington. Shadows on the Koyukuk. An Alaskan Native’s Life along the river
  • W. Heat-Moon. Blue Highways. A Journey into America.
  • D Talbot. Season of the Witch: Enchantment, Terror and Deliverance in the City of Love
  • P Allison. Don’t Run whatever you do. My adventures as a Safari Guide
  • G Packer. The Village of Waiting
  • C Childs. Apocalyptic planet. Field guide to the future of earth.
  • N Cobb. Arctic homestead. The true story of one family’s survival & courage in the Alaskan wilds
  • J Campbell. Braving it. A father, a daughter, & an unforgettable journey into the Alaskan wild
  • P Rivoli. The travels of a t-shirt in the global economy: an economist examines the markets, power, and politics of world trade
  • RH Dana. Two Years Before the Mast; A Personal Narrative
  • K Salak. Four Corners: One Woman’s Solo Journey Into the Heart of Papua New Guinea
  • I Frazier. Travels in Siberia  (and Great Plains)
  • B Hall. The Impossible Country: A Journey Through the Last Days of Yugoslavia
  • M Adams. Tip of the Iceberg: my 3,000 mile journey around wild Alaska, the last great American frontier

Psychology

  • M Shermer. The Science of Good and Evil: Why People Cheat, Gossip, Care, Share, and Follow the Golden Rule
  • M Gelfand. Rule Makers, Rule Breakers: How Tight and Loose Cultures Wire Our World
  • HA Garcia. Sex, Power, and Partisanship: How Evolutionary Science Makes Sense of Our Political Divide
  • R Kolker. Hidden Valley Road: Inside the Mind of an American Family
  • J Harris. The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do
  • J Harris. No Two Alike: Human Nature and Human Individuality
  • B Ehrenreich. Bright-sided: How relentless promotion of positive thinking undermined America
  • J Hari. Lost Connections: Why You’re Depressed and How to Find Hope
  • A Wiener. Uncanny Valley: A Memoir
  • A Solomon. The Noonday Demon: An Atlas of Depression
  • P Orenstein. Boys & Sex: Young Men on Hookups, Love, Porn, Consent, and Navigating the New Masculinity
  • J Keohane. The Power of Strangers: The Benefits of Connecting in a Suspicious World
  • M Emre. The Personality Brokers: The Strange History of Myers-Briggs and the Birth of Personality Testing
  • R Baumeister. Willpower: rediscovering the greatest human strength
  • C Duhigg. The Power of Habit. Why we do what we do in life and business.
  • J Baraz. Awakening Joy: 10 Steps That Will Put You on the Road to Real Happiness
  • J Wise. Extreme Fear: The Science of Your Mind in Danger.
  • B Kipper. 14,000 things to be happy about
  • P Orenstein. Cinderella Ate My Daughter: Dispatches from the Front Lines of the New Girlie-Girl Culture
  • A. Raine. Anatomy of violence. The biological roots of crime.
  • S Quartz. Cool. How the brain’s hidden quest for cool drives our economy and shapes our world
  • D Adam. The man who couldn’t stop: OCD & the true story of a life lost in thought
  • A Ansari. Modern romance
  • S Cahalan. Brain on Fire: My Month of Madness
  • B Brogaard. On romantic love: simple truths about a complex emotion
  • T Sharot. The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain
  • J Kluger. The Sibling Effect: What the Bonds Among Brothers and Sisters Reveal About Us
  • J Ronson. The Psychopath Test: A Journey Through the Madness Industry

World History

  • GD Wood. Tambora, the eruption that changed the world.
  • K Boo. Behind the beautiful forevers. Life, death, & hope in a Mumbai undercity
  • M Carter. George, Nicholas and Wilhelm. Three royal cousins and the road to WW I
  • CC Mann. 1491. New revelations of the Americas before Columbus
  • CC Mann.  Uncovering the new world Columbus created
  • C.Fletcher. The black prince of Florence. The spectacular life and treacherous world of Allesandro de’ Medici
  • R Winston. Life in the Middle Ages
  • JR Gillis. The human shore: seacoasts in history
  • S Winchester (2021) Land: How the Hunger for Ownership Shaped the Modern World.
  • V Ullrich. Hitler: Downfall: 1939-1945
  • V Hansen. The Year 1000: When Explorers Connected the World-and Globalization Began
  • J Steinberg. A Garland of Bones: Child Runaways in India
  • H Mayhew. London Labour and the London Poor
  • H Mayhew. The London Underworld In The Victorian Period – Authentic First-Person Accounts By Beggars, Thieves And Prostitutes
  • J Kreiner. Legions of Pigs in the Early Medieval West
  • L Picard. Elizabeth’s London: Everyday Life in Elizabethan London

Middle East: two-thirds of conventional oil is there

Energy and History

Food

Anthropology

  • D Graeber. Dawn of Everything.
  • NA Chagnon. Noble Savages: My Life Among Two Dangerous Tribes — the Yanomamo and the Anthropologists
  • J Toth. The Mole People. Life in the Tunnels beneath New York city
  • C Hoffman. Savage Harvest: A Tale of Cannibals, Colonialism, and Michael Rockefeller’s Tragic Quest for Primitive Art
  • T Flannery. Throwim’ Way Leg: Tree-Kangaroos, Possums, and Penis Gourds
  • B Chatwin. The Songlines.
  • C Boehm. Blood Revenge: Conflict in Montenegro & other Tribal Societies
  • MF Brown. Upriver: the turbulent life and times of an Amazonian people
  • A Wearing. Honeymoon in Purdah: An Iranian Journey
  • S Erdman. Nine Hills to Nambonkaha: Two Years in the Heart of an African Village
  • M Tidwell. The Ponds of Kalambayi: An African Sojourn
  • I Fonseca. Bury Me Standing: The Gypsies and Their Journey

(Auto)Biography

  • T Noah. Born a Crime: Stories from a South African Childhood
  • M Inman. The Oracle of Oil: A Maverick Geologist’s Quest for a Sustainable Future
  • R Chernow. Grant.
  • B. White. Mama Makes Up Her Mind: And Other Dangers of Southern Living
  • J Walls. The Glass Castle: A Memoir.
  • M Finkel. The stranger in the woods: the extraordinary story of the last true hermit
  • B MacDonald. The Egg and I
  • B MacDonald. The Plague and I
  • F McCourt. Angela’s Ashes. A Memoir.
  • E Gilbert. The Last American Man.
  • M Twain. Life on the Mississippi.
  • B Harris. Mississippi Solo.
  • D Ackerman. 2013. The Zookeeper’s Wife: A War Story
  • J Krakauer. Into Thin Air. A personal account of the Mt. Everest disaster.
  • D Sedaris. Calypso & Let’s explore diabetes with owls
  • O Sacks. On the move: A life
  • T Westover. Educated: A memoir
  • H Jahren. Lab Girl.
  • D Eggers. A heartbreaking work of staggering genius
  • J Berendt. Midnight in the garden of good & evil. A Savannah Story.
  • H Hickam. Rocket Boys
  • W. Whitman. Leaves of Grass.
  • T Wolfe. The Electric Kool-aid Acid Test.
  • J Harr. A Civil Action.
  • J. Browne. Charles Darwin. Voyaging.
  • G Grandin. Fordlandia: The Rise & Fall of Henry Ford’s Forgotten Jungle City
  • O Gentile. Life List: A Woman’s Quest for the World’s Most Amazing Birds
  • H Pearson. Shadow Of The Panther: Huey Newton & the price of black power in America
  • R Massie. Peter the Great. His life and world
  • R. Massie. Catherine the Great. Portrait of a woman.
  • J Herriot. All Creatures Great and Small.
  • H Macdonald. H is for Hawk.
  • E Abbey. Desert Solitaire.
  • D McCullough. Truman.
  • D Goodwin. No Ordinary Time: Franklin & Eleanor Roosevelt: Home Front in WW II
  • D Donald. Lincoln.
  • R Rhodes. John James Audubon: The Making of an American
  • M Farmanfarmaian. Blood and Oil: memoirs of a Persian Prince
  • R Hine. Second Sight.
  • M Swearingen. FBI Secrets. An Agents Expose.
  • J Chang. Wild Swans. Three daughters of China
  • H Thompson. Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas
  • E Saks. The center cannot hold: my journey through madness
  • I Beah. A Long Way Gone. Memoirs of a Boy Soldier
  • F Mayes. Under the Tuscan Sun.
  • H Jacobs. Incidents in the Life of a Slave Girl.
  • Malcolm X. The Autobiography of Malcolm X.
  • M Karr. The Liars’ club. A memoir.
  • N Evans. The Horse Whisperer.
  • P. Read. Alive.
  • C Hoffman. Greetings from Utopia park. Surviving a transcendent childhood
  • A Sethi. A free man. A true story of life and death in Delhi.
  • S Stoll. Ramp hollow: the ordeal of Appalachia
  • L Hillenbrand Unbroken: a world war II story of survival, resilience, and redemption

Religion

Cults

  • J Reitman. Inside Scientology: The Story of America’s Most Secretive Religion
  • J Hill. Beyond Belief: My Secret Life Inside Scientology and My Harrowing Escape
  • L Remini. Troublemaker: Surviving Hollywood and Scientology
  • J Sharlet. The Family: The Secret Fundamentalism at the Heart of American Power
  • T Kizzia. Pilgrim’s Wilderness: A true story of Faith and Madness on the Alaska Frontier
  • D Kimbrough. Taking Up Serpents: Snake Handlers of Eastern Kentucky
  • D Feldman. Unorthodox: The Scandalous Rejection of My Hasidic Roots
  • A Scorah. Leaving the Witness: Exiting a Religion and Finding a Life
  • C Hoffman. Greetings from Utopia Park: Surviving a Transcendent Childhood

Miscellaneous

  • D. Dorsey. The Force.
  • A. Stewart. Flower Confidential: The Good, Bad, & the Beautiful in the Business of Flowers

I rarely read fiction anymore because there are so many better written, more interesting (auto)biographies, natural history, travel adventures, anthropology, history, science, and other books.  Usually I feel like I’ve wasted my time. I have read a lot of fiction because in college I didn’t have time to take English courses so in my free time I worked by way from A to Z through the world’s great literature, especially enjoying Tolstoy and Dostoevsky and finding Thackeray’s “Vanity Fair” the least worthwhile of them all.  I prefer poetry because it takes you deep into the soul and world view of the poet, especially when spoken aloud.

Poetry: My favoritey is Marianne Betterly’s  “The return of the bees”.

Fiction

  • M Atwood. The Handmaid’s Tale (on the way to being non-fiction)
  • T Wolfe. The Bonfire of the Vanities.
  • S Rushdie. Midnight’s Children.
  • L Serafini. Codex Seraphinianus.
  • F Warren. All the Kings Men.
  • J Smiley. A Thousand Acres.
  • C Hiaasen. Tourist Season.
  • I Doig. This House of Sky: Landscapes of a Western Mind
  • L Tolstoy. War and Peace.
  • T Pynchon. Gravity’s Rainbow

Book Reviews: Why I Write Them, How I Find Them

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

Posted in Book List | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Booklist: Travel, Psychology, World history, Food, Anthropology, (Auto)biography, Cults, Religion

Toxic algae slime spreading quickly across the earth

2017-8-19. Ocean Slime Spreading Quickly Across the Earth. Craig Welch, National Geographic.

Toxic algae blooms, perhaps accelerated by ocean warming and other climate shifts, are spreading, poisoning marine life and people.

When sea lions suffered seizures and birds and porpoises started dying on the California coast last year, scientists weren’t entirely surprised. Toxic algae is known to harm marine mammals.

But when researchers found enormous amounts of toxin in a pelican that had been slurping anchovies, they decided to sample fresh-caught fish. To their surprise, they found toxins at such dangerous levels in anchovy meat that the state urged people to immediately stop eating them. The algae bloom that blanketed the West Coast in 2015 was the most toxic one ever recorded in that region.

But from the fjords of South America to the waters of the Arabian Sea, harmful blooms, perhaps accelerated by ocean warming and other shifts linked to climate change, are wreaking more havoc on ocean life and people. And many scientists project they will get worse.

“What emerged from last year’s event is just how little we really know about what these things can do,” says Raphael Kudela, a toxic algae expert at the University of California, Santa Cruz.

It’s been understood for decades, for example, that nutrients, such as fertilizer and livestock waste that flush off farms and into the Mississippi River, can fuel harmful blooms in the ocean, driving low-oxygen dead zones like the one in the Gulf of Mexico. Such events have been on the rise around the world, as population centers boom and more nitrogen and other waste washes out to sea

“There’s no question that we are seeing more harmful blooms in more places, that they are lasting longer, and we’re seeing new species in different areas,” says Pat Glibert, a phytoplankton expert at the University of Maryland.

But scientists also now see troubling evidence of harmful algae in places nearly devoid of people. They’re seeing blooms last longer and spread wider and become more toxic simply when waters warm. And some are finding that even in places overburdened by poor waste management, climate-related shifts in weather may already be exacerbating problems.

Fish kills stemming from harmful algal blooms are on the rise off the coast of Oman. Earlier this year, algae blooms suffocated millions of salmon in South America, enough to fill 14 Olympic swimming pools. Another bloom is a suspect in the death last year of more than 300 sei whales in Chile.

In the north, blooms are on the rise in places like Greenland, where some scientists suspect the shift is actually melting ice. Just this year, scientists showed that domoic acid from toxic algae was showing up in walrus, bowhead whales, beluga, and fur seals in Alaska’s Arctic, where such algae species weren’t believed to be common.

“We expect to see conditions that are conducive for harmful algal blooms to happen more and more often,” says Mark Wells, with the University of Maine. “We’ve got some pretty good ideas about what will happen, but there will be surprises, and those surprises can be quite radical.”

The Birth of a Bloom

If you look at seawater under a microscope, what you see may resemble a weird alphabet soup: tiny photosynthetic organisms that can resemble stacks of slender Lincoln logs, stubby mushrooms, balloons, segmented worms, or mini wagon wheels. Some float about in currents; others propel themselves through the water column. As conditions change, the environment can become perfect for one or two to take over. Suddenly these algae may bloom.

“Every organism on this planet has its ideal temperature,” says Chris Gobler, a professor at Stony Brook University “In a given water body, as it gets warmer, that’s going to favor the growth of some over others, and in some cases the harmful ones will do better.”

Algae is essential for life, but some species and some blooms can trigger serious harm. Some poison the air people breathe or change the color of the sea. Some accumulate in fish and shellfish, causing seizures, stomach illnesses, even death for the birds, marine mammals, and humans that eat them. Some blooms are so thick that when they finally die they use up oxygen needed by other animals, and leave rafts of dead eels, fish, and crabs in their wake.

In 2015, as a blob of warm water along the U.S. West Coast was breaking temperature records, regular sampling showed that dangerous levels of the biotoxin domoic acid from the algae Pseudo-nitzschia was building up in shellfish. Short-term harvest closures for razor clams and crab aren’t uncommon because while domoic acid doesn’t hurt shellfish, it can cause seizures and death in people who eat infected creatures.

While scientists knew domoic acid accumulates in the head and guts of fish—which are often consumed whole by marine mammals and birds—researchers rarely find these water-soluble toxins in the parts of fish that humans eat. And where most blooms last for weeks, this one dragged on for months. And while most are localized, this one covered vast areas of sea from Santa Barbara to Alaska. So when Kudela and his crew started testing, they found trace amounts of the toxin in the meat of rockfish, halibut, lingcod, and nearly every fish they tested. In anchovies it was far beyond what regulators consider safe.

“Before, even when the fish were toxic, they (regulators) were saying ‘Decapitate it and gut it and it will be fine,’ ” Kudela says. “It definitely raises new questions, like ‘Should we be monitoring things like flatfish on a more routine basis? and ‘Are we really prepared for what’s coming?’ ”

While the heat that drove this massive bloom may or may not be linked to climate change, scientists say a warming climate will make marine heat waves more common in the future.

And climate change isn’t just about temperature. It will also change how storms and melting ice add moisture to the marine world, make the oceans more corrosive, and alter the mixing of deep cold waters with light-filled seas at the surface. All of that can and will affect how harmful algae grow.

It’s just not always easy to see how.

Tracking Changes in the Arabian Sea

Joaquim Goes, a research professor at Columbia University’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory has been trying to track climate’s role in transforming one of the world’s rapidly changing marine environments, the Arabian Sea.

In the early 2000s, scientists documented blooms of shimmering bioluminescent Noctiluca scintillans, a beautiful green algae that can make the sea light up and sparkle. Now it shows up every year, in ever larger densities and covering more area.

“Globally, I’ve studied lots of ocean basins, and here the change is just massive—this one species is just taking over,” Goes says.

While it’s clear that rising use of fertilizers and massive population growth without corresponding wastewater treatment in places like Mumbai and Karachi are helping fuel this massive change, Goes and some others think that is not the only factor. Rapid melt of Himalayan glaciers is altering monsoon patterns, he says, intensifying them and helping reduce oxygen levels in surface waters, making them more conducive to Noctiluca. That, in turn, is changing what lives there and what they eat.

“Think of it as looking at a forest and over a period of about a decade, all the species have changed,” says Glibert, at Maryland. “The type of algae that grows at the base of the food web set the trajectory for what’s growing at the top of the food web.”

Goes fears these changes ultimately could spell disaster for that region’s fisheries, which provide tens of millions of dollars and help support life for 120 million people.

Thus far, the creatures that most seem to like to eat this algae are jellyfish and sea-centipede-like creatures known as salps. Those, in turn, are eaten by animals that can thrive in low-oxygen environments, namely sea turtles and squid. Landings of squid already are on the rise in places like Oman, Goes says, while tuna and grouper catches are down. And the low-oxygen environment itself can have acute effects. Just last fall, low-oxygen water along the coast of Oman killed fish for hundreds of kilometers.

Complex Ocean Physics

Still, it’s not always obvious what the trends really show or how all these pieces fit together.

Charles Trick, with the University of Western Ontario, says the physics of ocean environments are so complicated that climate change is likely to worsen algal blooms in a select few places, but not necessarily as a general rule. He is skeptical about climate impacts on blooms in the Arabian Sea, for example, but believes environments like the U.S. West Coast are prime for more massive blooms.

“Everything in this field is controversial,” Trick says. “There’s a lot of enthusiasm to challenge the big questions, but not a lot of data.”

What information there is often isn’t so clear. Kathi Lefebvre, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Northwest Fisheries Science Center in Seattle, has been the one tracking the domoic acid in hundreds of marine mammals in Alaska. The discovery in walrus, bowhead, and other Arctic mammals was a surprise, but it’s not clear if it’s part of a new trend—or simply the way things have always been. No one had ever checked before, so there is no past for Lefebvre to compare to.

“It’s a weird thing—we saw domoic acid in every species we looked at, so they are all being exposed to it,” she says. But domoic acid in high doses sometimes leads to seizure and death, which had never been documented in the Arctic. Has it happened all along, but the region is so sparsely populated that no one noticed? Or are these blooms moving north and still building, potentially responding to warming waters and melting ice?

“It’s pretty clear that if you change temperature, light availability and nutrients, that can absolutely change an ecosystem,” Lefebvre says. “But is it just starting? Is it getting worse? Is it the same as always? I have no idea.”

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Fisheries, Oceans, Water Pollution | Comments Off on Toxic algae slime spreading quickly across the earth

Vaclav Smil on wood

[ I’ve extracted bits about wood from Smil’s book about materials below, read the book for the larger context.  Enormous amounts of wood were used in former civilizations with much smaller populations than today, so it’s clear we can’t go back to wood as an energy resource as fossils decline without very quickly cutting the remaining forests down. Though we’re already destroying forests at such a huge rate for agriculture and construction that perhaps forests will mostly be gone by the time declining fossils are noticeably reducing population.  Though inaccessible boreal and other forests will remain, if climate change hasn’t already converted them to grasslands.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts:  KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity]

Vaclav Smil. 2013. Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization.  Wiley.

The ships that made the first Atlantic crossings were remarkably light: a Viking ship (based on a well-preserved Gokstad vessel built around 890 CE) required the wood of 74 oaks (including 16 pairs of oars).

Fuel-wasting fireplaces and braziers resulted in a huge demand for fuel wood and charcoal to heat the expanding cities of the pre-coal era. In Paris, the demand rose from more than 400,000 loads of wood in 1735 to more than 750,000 loads in 1789 (about 1.6 Mm3) and the same amount of charcoal, prorating to more than a ton of fuel per capita (Roche, 2000).

Wood remained indispensable not only for building houses and transportation equipment (carts, wagons, coaches, boats, ships) but also—as iron smelting rose in parts of Europe—for charcoal production for blast furnaces (substitution by coke began only during the latter half of the eighteenth century and was limited to the UK). And as Europe’s maritime powers (Spain, Portugal, England, France, and Holland) competed in building large ocean-going vessels—both commercial and naval—the increasing number of such ships and their larger sizes brought unprecedented demand for the high-quality timber needed to build hulls, decks, and masts.

With wooden hulls, masts, and spars being as much as 70% of the total mass (the remainder was divided among ballast, supplies, sails, armaments, and crew) these pioneering vessels contained 60–75 tons of sawn timber (Fernández-González, 2006).

Iron production in small blast furnaces required enormous quantities of charcoal and combined with inefficient wood-to-charcoal conversion this led to widespread deforestation in iron-smelting regions: by 1700 a typical English furnace consumed 12,000 tons of wood a year (Hyde, 1977).

All railroad ties (sleepers) installed during the nineteenth century were wooden; concrete sleepers were introduced only around 1900 but remained uncommon until after World War II. Standard construction practice requires the placement of about 1900 sleepers per km of railroad track, and with a single tie weighing between roughly 70 kg (pine) and 100 kg (oak) every kilometer needed approximately 130–190 t of sawn (and preferably creosote-treated) wood. My calculations show that the rail tracks laid worldwide during the nineteenth century required at least 100 Mt of sawn wood for original construction and at least 60 Mt of additional timber for track repairs and replacements (Smil, 2013).

Wooden railway ties, that quintessential nineteenth-century innovation, maintained their high share of the global market throughout the twentieth century. During the 1990s, 94% of America’s ties were wooden.

The energy cost of market-ready lumber (timber) is low, comparable to the energy cost of many bulk mineral and basic construction materials produced by their processing. Tree felling, removal of boles from the forest, their squaring and air drying will add up to no more than about 500 MJ/t, and even with relatively energy-intensive kiln-drying (this operation may account for 80–90% of all thermal energy) the total could be as low as 1.5 and more than 3.5 GJ/t (including cutting and planing) for such common dimensional construction cuts as 2 × 4 studs used for framing North American houses.

The low energy cost of wood is also illustrated by the fact that, in Canada, the energy cost of wood products represents less than 5% of the cost of the goods sold (Meil et al., 2009). Energy costs on the order of 1–3 GJ/t are, of course, only small fractions of wood’s energy content that ranges from 15 to 17 GJ/t for air-dry material. Obviously, the energy cost of wood products rises with the degree of processing (FAO, 1990). Particle board (with a density between 0.66 and 0.70 g/cm3) may need as little as 3 GJ/t and no more than 7 GJ/t, with some 60% of all energy needed for particle drying and 20% for hot pressing.

The energy cost of paper making varies with the final product and, given the size and production scale of modern pape rmaking machines (typically 150 m long, running speeds up to 1800 m/min., and annual output of 300 000 t of paper), is not amenable to drastic changes (Austin, 2010). Unbleached packaging paper made from thermo-mechanical pulp is the least energy-expensive kind (as little as 23 GJ/t); fine bleached uncoated paper made from kraft pulp consumes at least 27 GJ/t and commonly just over 30 GJ/t (Worrell et al., 2008). Most people find it surprising that this is as much as a high-quality steel.

Recycled and de-inked newsprint or tissue can be made with less than 18 GJ/t, but the material is often down-cycled into lower quality packaging materials.

Wooden floors are much less energy intensive than the common alternatives: the total energy per square meter of flooring per year of service was put at 1.6 MJ for wood (usually oak or maple) compared to 2.3 MJ for linoleum and 2.8 MJ for vinyl.

Collection of household waste paper is expensive, and a thorough processing of the material is needed to produce clean fibers for reuse. This includes defibering of paper, cleaning and removal of all nonfiber ingredients (most often adhesive tapes, plastics, and staples), and de-inking is needed if the fibers are to be reprocessed into white paper. Reprocessing shortens the cellulose fibers and this means that paper can be recycled no more than 4 to 7 times.

Late 19th to early 20th century hand-stoked coal stoves converted no more than 20-25% or less of the fuel’s chemical energy to useful heat, though that’s good compared to the less than 10% efficiency of wood-burning fireplaces before that. Oil-fired furnace efficiency can be up to 50%, natural gas home furnaces 70-75%.

Posted in Vaclav Smil, Wood | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Threats to America’s drinking and sewage treatment infrastructure

[ Here are a few of the points made in this 170 page document about improving the nation’s water system security (excerpts follow):

  • There are many potential threats to water infrastructure, including terrorism, failure of aging infrastructure, flooding, hurricanes, earthquakes, cyber-security breaches, chemical spills, a pandemic causing widespread absenteeism of water treatment employees, and intentional release of chemical, biological, and radiological agents.
  • Preventing a terrorist attack on the nation’s water infrastructure may be impossible because of the number and diversity of utilities, the multiple points of vulnerability, the high number of false positives, and the expense of protecting an entire system.
  • Drinking and sewage water treatment depend on electricity. In a power outage, natural or deliberately started fires would be hard to put out. Explosives could destroy communications.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts:  KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity]

NRC. 2007. Improving the Nation’s Water Security: Opportunities for Research.  Committee on Water System Security Research, National Research Council, National Academies Press. 170 pages

An attack on the water infrastructure could cause mortality, injury, or sickness; large-scale environmental impacts; and a loss of public confidence in the safety and quality of drinking water supplies.

An important overarching issue that remains unresolved is making water security information accessible to those who might need it. The problem of information sharing in a security context is one of the most difficult the EPA faces. Currently, some important information on priority contaminants and threats that could improve utilities’ response.

Improving the Nation’s water security has been classified and cannot be shared with utilities, even through secure dissemination mechanisms.

While contingency plans have existed for decades within the water and wastewater utilities industry to handle power interruptions or natural events such as flooding, new security concerns include disruption of service by physical attack (e.g., explosives), breaches in cyber security, and the intentional release of contaminants (including chemical, biological, and radiological agents).

Both drinking water and wastewater systems are vulnerable to terrorist attack. The consequences of security threats involve potential mortality, injury, or sickness; economic losses; extended periods of service interruption; and a loss of public confidence in the safety and quality of drinking water supplies—a major concern even without a serious public health consequence.

Flushing a drinking water distribution system in response to intentional chemical contamination could transport contaminants to the wastewater system and, unless removed by wastewater treatment, into receiving waters; thus, large-scale environmental impacts could also result from water security events.

Security threats to wastewater systems, while posing a less direct impact on public health, are nevertheless serious concerns. Chemical or microbial agents added in relatively small quantities to a wastewater system could disrupt the treatment process, and a physical attack on a wastewater collection system could create local public health concerns and potentially large-scale environmental impacts.

Wastewater collection systems (e.g., large-diameter sewer mains) may also serve as conduits for malicious attacks via explosives that could cause a large number of injuries and fatalities.

An attack on a wastewater system could also create public health concerns if untreated wastewater were discharged to a river used as a downstream drinking water supply or for recreational purposes (e.g., swimming, fishing).

Infrastructure Interdependencies: Electricity, firefighting, communications, natural disasters, epidemics

Threats to water security also raise concerns regarding cross-sector interdependencies of critical infrastructures. Water utilities are largely dependent upon electric power to treat and distribute water. Likewise, electric power is essential to collect and treat wastewater.

The firefighting ability of municipalities would be seriously weakened without an adequate and uninterrupted supply of water, and intentional fires could be set as part of a terrorist attack to further exacerbate this impact. Explosive attacks in wastewater collection systems could affect other critical co-located infrastructures, such as communications.

Many of the principles used to prepare for and to respond to water security threats are directly applicable to natural hazards. Hurricane Katrina reminded the nation that natural disasters can cause both physical damage and contamination impacts on water and wastewater systems.

Moreover, natural disasters (e.g., earthquakes, floods) and routine system problems (e.g., aging infrastructure, nonintentional contamination events) are far more likely to occur than a terrorist attack.

An epidemic or pandemic illness could also create failures in smaller water or wastewater utilities if supply chains become compromised due to widespread absenteeism or if essential personnel are incapacitated. Thus, threats from intentional attacks are not the only threats to the integrity of the nation’s water systems.

The municipal wastewater industry has over 16,000 plants that are used to treat a total flow on the order of 32,000 billion gallons per day (Bgal/d). More than 92% of the total existing flow is handled by about 3,000 treatment plants that have a treatment capacity of 1 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) or greater, although more than 6,000 plants treat a flow of 100,000 gallons per day or less. Nearly all of the wastewater treatment plants provide some form of secondary treatment and more than half provide some form of advanced treatment using a diversity of treatment processes and configurations. Thus, crafting a wastewater security research strategy that is suitable for all wastewater treatment plants is difficult.

Protecting a very large number of utilities against the consequences of the wide range of possible threats is a daunting, perhaps impossible, task. The development of a workable security system to prevent physical attacks against commercial airline flights is difficult and is still a work in progress, and the comparable problem for water systems is vastly more complex. Security technologies for one type of system might not work for another, and many systems might require custom designs. Further, no systems are immune from concern about an attack. A chemical or biological attack on a system that serves only a few thousand people would still be significant in terms of loss of life, economic damage, or the amount of fear and loss of confidence it would cause. In addition, smaller systems tend to be less protected and more vulnerable to a malicious attack. Approximately 160,000 drinking water systems and 16,000 wastewater systems operate simultaneously 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with the largest systems each servicing millions of customers, and each is capable of being attacked by many different means requiring different methods of prevention. Expecting utilities to harden water and wastewater infrastructure to eliminate all vulnerabilities is unreasonable. The costs of security for the industry would be borne by the end users, and these users may not be willing to bear the costs of developing and implementing technologies that could prevent even a limited range of terrorist attacks over the entire nation’s water and wastewater systems.

Clearly, the earlier a contaminant is detected, the greater the likelihood that its public health impact can be reduced. Thus, an initial research interest has focused on developing early detection systems for chemical or biological agents that might intentionally be introduced into water or wastewater. Any such effort, however, will have to overcome some significant challenges to fashion advanced technologies into a workable system, considering the challenge of the number and diversity of water and wastewater systems and potential contaminants.

Detecting intruders and chemicals: too many false positive alarms

Let us assume, for example, a very high rate of one such intentional attack per year among the largest 10,000 drinking water systems. To detect such an attack, sensors would have to be placed throughout the systems and take frequent measurements. If a generic intrusion detector samples once every 10 minutes and there are on average 20 detectors per system (a reasonable assumption for one of the 10,000 largest systems, although one might expect more for a very large system and fewer for a very small system), this adds up to a million sampling intervals per system per year. Assuming a false positive rate of one in 10 million measurements (an extraordinarily small rate if also maximizing sensitivity), this would still produce 1,000 false positives per year among these 10,000 water systems. If only one true positive in 10,000 is expected, this means that almost every time the alarm goes off (99.9 percent of the time), it is a false positive. As a result, operators are likely to disconnect, ignore, or simply choose not to install the detection system. If detectors are ignored or not maintained, they cannot practically serve their purpose, whether to prevent, warn, or treat.

The problem is compounded when considering the installation of detectors for each of a large number of potential biothreat agents. Meinhardt published a table of 28 selected agents in 8 broad categories identified by multiple governmental, military, and medical sources as possible biowarfare agents that might present a public health threat if dispersed by water. Assuming success in constructing a 100% sensitive and extremely specific detector for the eight broad agent categories (e.g., viral pathogen, marine biotoxin) and assuming each broad category has an equal probability of being employed in an attack, the probability of a true alarm is reduced by almost another order of magnitude. In other words, the additional analysis of multiple categories of agents requires an order-of-magnitude reduction in the false positive rate of a detector just to get back to the unsatisfactory baseline of a system for a generic intrusion detector. The fundamental problem relates to the rarity of an attack on any particular system. Detectors can be made with high sensitivity and specificity (low false positive and false negative rates), but when applied in situations where the event to be detected is uncommon, the predictive value of an alarm can be very small.

A false positive alarm every few years might conceivably be acceptable to some communities that consider themselves high-risk targets, assuming there is an agreed-upon response plan in place for a positive signal.

(The calculations were conducted as follows: 10,000 water systems * 20 detectors/system * 6 measurements/detector/hour * 8760 hours/year = 10,512,000,000 measurements/year across all 10,000 systems. Given the assumptions in this scenario of a false positive rate of one in 10 million measurements and an attack rate of one per 10,000 drinking water systems, there will be approximately 1,000 false positives and only one is a true positive (one attack) per year).

Improved event detection architecture could possibly reduce the number of false positives. In this approach, a water system would install an array of sensors linked in a way that only triggers an alarm when a statistically significant number of sensors detect abnormal levels. This should reduce or eliminate the false positives caused by independent sensor malfunctions, but it would also increase the false negative rate (i.e., decrease specificity) and the cost of the detection system. The cost of purchasing and maintaining such detection instruments over a period of years needs to be considered in evaluating the likelihood of implementation.

Disease surveillance systems have been proposed as another method to detect a drinking water contamination event. The detection of a water-related event using a human-disease-based surveillance system with an appropriate epidemiologic follow-up investigation is insensitive to any but the largest outbreak events and would occur too late to prevent illness. However, disease surveillance systems could be used to mitigate further exposure and implement treatment or prophylaxis (detect to treat), especially if linked to contaminant monitoring systems. The problems associated with in situ detection systems, discussed in the previous section, apply with even more force to disease surveillance systems designed to detect specific syndromes related to bioterror agents, because disease surveillance systems have only modest sensitivities and specificities. The body’s immune system reacts generically to many in symptoms” seen in so many different diseases at first presentation. The implementation of enhanced disease surveillance systems is costly and has inherent false positive and negative rates. For example, not every case of waterborne disease will eventually be diagnosed as such. Therefore it has been argued that the benefits of such enhanced systems may not outweigh the costs in the general case. Public health researchers have argued that “it is challenging to develop sensible response protocols for syndromic surveillance systems because the likelihood of false alarms is so high, and because information is currently not specific enough to enable more timely outbreak detection or disease control activities” (Berger et al., 2006).

The EPA faces risks in providing water security information and risks in withholding it, and there is no easy solution to a problem that involves risks on both sides. As an example, if research were to find an unforeseen but easy way to contaminate a system, this information might change how utilities protect themselves and improve their ability to recognize that an attack has taken place. At the same time, this information can be used for malicious purposes. As a result, there is a delicate balance between alerting a significant number of water operators of a danger, while minimizing the potential for suggesting a route of attack to a malefactor.

Preventing a terrorist attack on the nation’s water infrastructure may be impossible because of the number and diversity of utilities, the multiple points of vulnerability, and the expense of protecting an entire system.

Overall, the EPA efforts in physical and cyber security are limited in scope, reflecting the relatively low priority of the topic to the EPA. The committee is concerned that the potential seriousness of physical attacks on a drinking water system are being overlooked, and therefore, contingencies and recovery options for physical attacks are not being addressed adequately in the research agenda. The lack of in-house expertise on the topics of physical and cyber security further limits the EPA’s ability to take a leadership role in this area, because contract management alone offers limited guidance and oversight to the work being performed.

Two classified reports have been developed that are related to, but not directly associated with, Section 3.2 of the Action Plan: the Threat Scenarios for Buildings and Water Systems Report and the Wastewater Baseline Threat Document. The first report, as described previously in this chapter, ranked the most likely contamination threats to drinking water,

Disagreggation of large water and wastewater systems should be an overarching theme of innovation. Large and complex systems have developed in the United States following the pattern of urban and suburban sprawl. While there are clear economies of scale for large utilities in construction and system management, there are distinct disadvantages as well. The complexity of large systems makes security measures difficult to implement and complicates the response to an attack. For example, locating the source of incursion within the distribution system and isolating contaminated sections are more difficult in large and complex water systems. Long water residence times are also more likely to occur in large drinking water systems, and, as a result, disinfectant residual may be lacking in the extremities of the system because of the chemical and biological reactions that occur during transport. From a security perspective, inadequate disinfectant residual means less protection against intentional contamination by a microbial agent.

Posted in CyberAttacks, Disease, Terrorism, Water Infrastructure, Water Pollution | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Threats to America’s drinking and sewage treatment infrastructure

American Arsenal: A Century of Waging War by Patrick Coffey

Source: www.compoundchem.com/2014/05/17/chemical-warfare-ww1

Preface. These are my notes from “American Arsenal: A Century of Waging War” (2013) by Patrick Coffey . Absolutely horrifying, especially chemical warfare. Here’s the publishers weekly blurb of what this book is about:

“Science historian Coffey surveys the history of American military weapons development since WWI, focusing on the interactions between the military, science, and industry, and politicians in developing key weapons systems. “Scientists and inventors were active participants” in WWI, an entirely new development in conducting warfare. Coffey highlights several major types of weapons, including chemical munitions, bombers and bomb-sights, nuclear warheads, and the M-16 rifle. He also notes challenges to effective weapons development, such as the exaggerated claims made by the Army Air Force in WWII of pickle-barrel accuracy for its bombers; a lack of comprehensive military understanding of science, as was the case in the early development of chemical weapons; inter-service rivalries that impede effectiveness and efficiency while raising costs; and the influence political expediency has on funding. By no means comprehensive, the book deals with only a handful of weapons systems, some of which are notable due to controversies and problems attached to them. Nonetheless, Coffey delivers an interesting book that introduces the general reader to a little-known perspective on military history.”

These excerpts will give you more of an idea, but are just bits and pieces, for a coherent narrative, read the book.

Grim as this book may be, the “bright side” is that post fossil fuels armies won’t be able to cause such harm as the number of airplanes, tanks, and other diesel-fueled vehicles declines. Let’s hope that nuclear weapons disappear though before the worst of the final wars over resources begin.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts:  KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity]

[Let’s start out with the most “amusing” part of the book before the grim stuff.  What could possibly go wrong with this plan?]

In January 1942 Adams sent the following idea direction to FDR, which began with “the lowly bat is capable of carrying enough incendiary material to ignite a fire”. His plan was to attach small firebombs to millions of bats and  release them over Japanese cities, where they would roost in every attic. After a suitable delay, the bombs would detonate, igniting all of urban Japan. It was all thought out: bats hibernate during the winter, so they could be easily collected, equipped with bombs, and warmed up just before release. And since bats weigh less than one-half ounce, … which means that approximately 200,000 bats could be transported in just one airplane.

But before this could happen questions needed to be answered: Could an incendiary bomb be made that was small enough for a bat to carry? How could millions of bombs be attached to bats? Could bats be brought in and out of hibernation at will? How would the time-delay fuses work? What would keep them from triggering early and incinerating the bomber carrying the bats? How would two hundred thousand bat firebombs be stored and then dropped? No one asked any questions about the ethics of capturing millions of bats, stapling firebombs to their chests, dropping them from bombers, and incinerating them.

Von Bloeker volunteered to test the load-carrying capability of a bat; to everyone’s surprise, healthy Mexican free-tail bats, which could be found in the millions in Carlsbad Caverns, could each carry fifteen to eighteen grams—more than their own weight—and still fly. That set an upper limit on the weight of the incendiary. Fieser and his team constructed a small, pencil-like napalm bomb with a delayed chemical trigger that could be set by a syringe injection.

The first tests were scheduled for May 1943 at Edwards Air Force Base near Los Angeles. The goal was to test bats’ load-carrying capacity and the altitude at which they would come out of hibernation. The plan was to capture 3,000 bats at Carlsbad, fly them in a B-25 bomber to Muroc, keep them in a hibernated state in refrigerated trucks overnight, attach dummy bombs to their chests, and drop them at a series of different altitudes the next morning. Fieser’s report of the test: Everything went off on schedule, and shortly after dinner the bomber flew in loaded with kicking, shrieking bats. … The crates were loaded onto the truck and the refrigeration turned on full tilt. But the howling went on without abate for a couple of hours, and it became evident that the refrigeration unit was not adequate to cope with such a large amount of body heat all of a sudden. So we mounted a series of fans in position to blow air in over cakes of ice. Finally, about midnight, the noise ceased; hibernation had been accomplished. … A first batch of bats in hibernation with weights attached was dumped out of the bomber [the next morning] at low altitude. … Other batches were released from higher and higher altitudes. … Eventually it was clear that the bats were not in hibernation but dead. The cooling had been too efficient.

The next test was at a new auxiliary airfield at Carlsbad Army Air Base, much closer to the source of the bats. Because the test was top-secret, even the colonel who commanded the base was banned from the site, and the CWS ran the test behind locked gates. The bats were packed like eggs in specially designed crates, stacked for release by the bomber. It all went like clockwork. After the bats dropped, they came out of hibernation and flew.

If the test had ended then, it would have been a success. The story according to Couffer: Then Fieser said he wanted the photographic record of bat bombs going off in various realistic situations, “with complete verisimilitude,” as he put it. … [H]e also asked the photographers to shoot some pictures of himself with the bats and their attached bombs. … We attached … unarmed capsules of napalm to half a dozen [hibernating] bats for Fieser to have his fun. Fieser [injected] one capsule after another until all the bats were armed. … Once injected, the capsule became a ticking bomb, a firecracker with a short fuse. Then … all the bats simultaneously came to life. “Hey!” I heard Fieser shout. “‘Hey! They’re becoming hyperactive. Somebody! Quick! Bring a net!” By the time I got there with a hand net, Fieser and the two photographers were staring into the sky. … Exactly fifteen minutes after arming, a barracks burst into flames, minutes later the tall tower erupted into a huge candle visible for miles. Offices and hangars followed in order corresponding to the intervals between Fieser’s chemical injections.”38 Because the bat-drop bombing tests had been run with dummy bombs, no one had ordered firefighting equipment. The air base’s commanding colonel, who had been shut out from the tests, saw the smoke and appeared with three fire engines at the field’s padlocked gates, where he was told to go away.

Perhaps from embarrassment at the Carlsbad fiasco, Fieser tried to get the project killed. The AAF had had enough of bats. Nonetheless, the CWS persisted and managed to get the bat bomb transferred to the Navy, where it was renamed Project X-Ray.41 Burning down the airfield at Carlsbad should have been sufficient demonstration of the bat bomb’s effectiveness, but further tests were scheduled for the German-Japanese Village at Dugway.

Although Fieser had at first resisted the bat bomb, in his memoirs he mourned the cancellation of Project X-ray. He imagined a silent night attack on Tokyo, each plane delivering thousands of bats—no explosions to give warning. Four hours later, “bombs in strategic and not easily detectable locations would start popping all over the city at 4 a.m.,

Nuclear War

The idea that a president can direct or control nuclear war is an illusion. First, if it ever comes to that, the president would very likely be dead or incommunicado. Second, the plans for nuclear war are so complex and intertwined that there are very few options—in 1961, there was only one: unleash every American weapon in what Air Force generals called a “Sunday punch.” Most presidents have shown little interest in nuclear strategy (Carter, trained as a nuclear engineer, was the exception).

Months after Kennedy took office, he asked for a demonstration of the “red telephone” from which he was to respond to a Soviet attack. No one could find it—it had been in Eisenhower’s desk drawer, but Jackie Kennedy had swapped desks when she redecorated the White House.  And the military certainly did not believe in civilian micromanagement. LeMay angrily told Assistant Secretary of Defense John Rubel, “Who needs the president if there’s a war? All we need him for is to tell us there is a war. We’re professional soldiers. We’ll take care of the rest.” Before the Cold War’s nuclear standoff, a president had time to remove incompetent, insubordinate, or unstable commanders, as Lincoln and Roosevelt had done earlier.

But a war with the Soviet Union in the 1960s would have lasted only a few hours, and a “Dr. Strangelove” scenario, in which a rogue general launched a nuclear attack, was entirely possible. General Tommy Power, in charge of the Strategic Air Command (SAC) from 1957 to 1964, was generally seen as the most likely to do so. He gleefully presented SAC’s plans to launch thirty-two hundred warheads to Secretary McNamara; even his superior LeMay called him a sadist, and his subordinate General Horace Wade said of him, “I used to worry that General Power was not stable. I used to worry about the fact that he had control over so many weapons and weapon systems and could, under certain conditions, launch the force. … SAC had the power to do a lot of things, and it was in his hands and he knew it.”

Inter- and intraservice rivalry is a repeated motif throughout the book. The most egregious cases: the Navy refused to release Norden bombsights, for which it had little use, to the Army Air Forces, who were attempting precision bombing of Germany in World War II; and the Army and the Air Force engaged in a wasteful missile race in the 1950s—not with the Soviet Union, but with each other.

Service traditions have often impeded the replacement of old weapons with new. The Navy hung on to its battleships even after they were shown to be vulnerable to bomber attack, because its battleship tradition went back to John Paul Jones and the Bonhomme Richard. The Air Force, whose generals rose from the ranks of combat pilots, resisted developing missiles because they threatened its bombers, and it still resists unmanned aerial vehicles because they threaten to make pilots obsolete altogether. As a result, weapons can persist long after they have been proven to be useless or obsolete.

Effective weapons demand to be used, even if they are unsupported by doctrine. Napalm is an example. Developed by Harvard chemist Louis Fieser in 1942, it made the firebombing of Tokyo and other Japanese cities an option, although attacking civilians was contrary to the Army Air Forces’ precision-bombing doctrine.

Then disaster. From the New York Times, January 16, 1916: “Hydrogen Leak Suspected; Interior of E-2 Wrecked; … Daniels Orders Inquiry.” The E-2 submarine had been rocked by an explosion while it was in dry dock in the Brooklyn Navy Yard. It had been testing the Edison battery. Four men were killed immediately, and another would die a few days later. Ten others were injured. As Hutchison and Edison claimed, the alkaline Edison battery could not emit chlorine. But if a cell of an Edison battery was reversed (that is, after full discharge, it was subjected to an external current in the direction of discharge), the cell’s water would decompose into hydrogen and oxygen—an explosive mixture, especially in the confines of a submarine.

The Navy was not listening to him. Edison later told a reporter, “I made about 45 inventions during the war, all perfectly good ones, and they pigeon-holed every one of them.” He would send an idea to Daniels, Daniels would send it to someone in the Navy, and nothing would happen. Edison could not get the Navy to even explain what was needed. He complained that he was “pulling ideas out of the air” and wrote Daniels, “I am still without adequate information about submarine warfare in actual practice as no one … has given me any data of real value. Until I get some kind of data, I will have to depend on my imagination.” Edison’s greatest contribution was not his inventions but his common-sense analysis. He asked for information about submarine attacks, for example, and when he was told the data had not been compiled, he put his own analysis team together. In November 1917 he sent Daniels and the British Admiralty a report with graphs, charts, and forty-five maps. The conclusions he drew were straightforward. Most German submarine attacks were near French and British ports; if ships operated there only at night, they would be much less vulnerable. German subs also seemed to be lying in wait in prewar shipping lanes and near lighthouses, so those areas should be avoided. Merchant ships should be equipped with radios so that they could call for help from destroyers if attacked. Moreover, merchant ships’ old (and useless) sailing masts could be sighted by enemy subs from a great distance and should be removed. Smokeless anthracite coal should be burned in danger zones in order to reduce visibility, and lookouts should be stationed not on deck but at portholes near the water’s surface, where they could spot a sub’s periscope in profile against the sky. The Navy proved willing to listen to these, perhaps because Edison had given them to the British as well.

Concerning the E-2 explosion, the Navy was right: Hutchison had negligently ordered a procedure—the deep and rapid discharge of 240 battery cells in series, half the submarine’s complement—that was almost certain to emit hydrogen. Hutchison was right too: the Edison battery was safer than the lead-acid battery and not specifically to blame for the explosion, as a lead-acid battery (or any other wet-cell battery) subjected to that procedure would have emitted hydrogen and exploded in the same fashion. But Hutchison and Edison never seemed to understand that the technical cause of the E-2 explosion was immaterial, at least as far as the Navy was concerned. The Navy knew that Edison considered its officers to be ignorant martinets—he said so often enough. And when Hutchison blamed the explosion on the incompetence of the E-2’s captain, the Navy, which prided itself on its traditions and autonomy, closed ranks. Its officers saw Edison as an irrelevant meddler, Hutchison as a snake, and Daniels as a political hack. Edison was perhaps America’s greatest inventor, but he was woefully ignorant of the ways of the military.

The twentieth century would see this sort of misunderstanding repeated many times.

By the time the United States entered World War I, the Europeans had been gassing one another on the battlefield for two years. The American Army had no experience of chemical weapons. It should have worried about defense against gas attacks—training officers and individual soldiers, providing masks and decontamination gear, and familiarizing its medical staff with treatment of gas casualties—but it did not, and American soldiers would suffer as a result. Rather than concentrate on defense, the Army began a crash program to develop its own poison gas, a secret weapon that would force Kaiser Bill to his knees.

Gas was a horror, beginning with the first attack at Ypres in April 1915, when the Germans released chlorine gas from six thousand cylinders. When chlorine comes into contact with unprotected human tissue, it reacts immediately, burning the skin or the eyes if the exposure is prolonged or concentrated. When chlorine is inhaled, it corrodes the lungs, which fill with fluid. There is no antidote to chlorine poisoning—with moderate exposure, the body may heal itself, but if the exposure is severe, the victim drowns in his own fluid. One soldier described it as “an equivalent death to drowning only on dry land. The effects are these—a splitting headache and terrific thirst (to drink water is instant death), a knife-edge of pain in the lungs and the coughing up of a greenish froth off the stomach and the lungs, ending finally in insensibility and death. The color of the skin from white turns a greenish black and yellow, the color protrudes and the eyes assume a glassy stare. It is a fiendish death to die.”

Haber took charge of the German poison gas effort and developed gases that were even more lethal. Phosgene, sixteen times as deadly as the same amount of chlorine, was first used by the Germans and then quickly deployed by both sides. About the time that America entered the war in 1917, Haber developed dichlorodiethylsulfide, which was to become known as “mustard gas” because of its slight mustard-like odor. Unlike chlorine and phosgene, which had their principal effects upon the lungs, mustard was a blistering agent that caused skin burns, blindness, and internal and external bleeding. Soldiers often took four to five weeks to recover or die, putting a further load on the enemy’s medical services, and the pain was so bad that soldiers had to be strapped to their beds. Here was a far more terrifying weapon than chlorine. Because mustard attacked the skin, soldiers had to cover every inch of the body in a poncho during an attack. And mustard had another advantage—whereas phosgene and chlorine dissipated quickly, mustard was actually not a gas but a liquid that was sprayed as an aerosol. It was persistent, poisoning grass, plants, and the earth for days. It could be used to deny territory to the enemy, to support the flanks in an infantry advance, and to cover a retreat. Mustard was by far the most deadly agent used in the Great War.

The gas mask, especially the heavy British single-box respirator, was one more burden for the soldier to carry into battle. Soldiers in the trenches found themselves constantly sniffing for gas, and a soldier in a gas mask, even if it was functioning, was half blinded, unable to aim properly or to see peripherally.

Haber believed that chemical weapons were a natural stage in the evolution of warfare. Advances in the technology of artillery and machine guns had led armies to burrow into trenches; the next step was to develop chemical weapons, which would make those trenches uninhabitable.

Haber believed that gas was of greatest advantage to the most industrialized nations—the Germans were best at it, the British better than the French, and the Russians hopeless. He saw conventional warfare as a game like checkers, but gas warfare like chess—gas shells might contain two or even three agents, and that forced the combatant armies to develop a new gas mask filter to block each new combination.

While the French and British deplored the Germans’ gas attacks in their propaganda, they were vague about the effects of gas because they did not want to scare the Americans off. By the spring of 1917, the Allies imposed a total news blackout on gas warfare because, in the words of the British assistant secretary of war, it might result in an “unreasonable dread of gases on the part of the American nation and its soldiers.

The majority of the United States troops entered the European fight during and after the German spring offensive of 1918. The Germans had a field day gassing the green American soldiers, whose casualty rate was extremely high.

More than a year after the United States’ declaration of war, the American Expeditionary Force at last required that gas officers be assigned to each unit.

While mustard gas had proven to be an extremely effective blistering agent, it was considered too persistent to be used on the offensive—it hung around so long that it would poison the attacker’s own troops as they moved into territory that the enemy had abandoned. It had another disadvantage: its physiological action is delayed for hours, like a particularly hellish poison ivy, so enemy troops were often not immediately aware they had been gassed and would continue fighting. Captain Lewis was asked to find a poison gas that would outdo mustard, one that was “(1) effective in small concentrations; (2) difficult to protect against; (3) capable of injuring all parts of the body; (4) easily manufactured in large quantities; (5) cheap to produce; (6) composed of raw materials that were readily available in the United States; (7) easy and safe to transport; (8) stable and hard to detect; and, most importantly, (9) deadly.

A colleague suggested that Lewis take a look at Father Nieuwland’s doctoral dissertation, in which the chemist-priest had described combining arsenic trichloride and acetylene. The result had made him deathly ill. When Lewis repeated Nieuwland’s experiment, he found that the results matched his goal—immediately painful, more toxic than mustard, and less persistent than mustard because it decomposed in water.

Conant had continued in Harvard’s graduate program and received his Ph.D. in organic chemistry in 1917, just as the United States entered the war. He and two chemist friends could see that many organic chemicals were selling at very high prices because of the war. They decided to manufacture benzoic acid, but they found that producing chemicals in large batches was not the same thing as working in laboratory flasks: they burned down one building and used the insurance settlement to move the business to a second. When Roger Adams, an instructor in organic chemistry at Harvard, moved to the University of Illinois, Harvard offered Conant the open faculty position.* He accepted, and the move to Harvard was timely, as the benzoic acid business ended in catastrophe with a second fire two months later.

The government had difficulty convincing chemical companies to produce poison gases. The work was dangerous, and the only customer—the government—would immediately discontinue purchases whenever the war ended.

In the spring of 1918, the Army pushed to take control of all chemical warfare operations, including research and production within the United States. On June 28, President Wilson established the Chemical Warfare Service (CWS). Although Gen. Pershing had earlier removed Gen. William Sibert from command of the 1st Infantry Division before it was deployed in combat, he recommended him to command the CWS, with Gen. Amos Fries reporting to him and running things in France. Because Lewisite was to be America’s secret weapon, it was not produced at Edgewood but assigned its own production site in Willoughby, Ohio, about thirty miles from Cleveland. The similarities between Willoughby in World War I and Los Alamos in World War II are striking: Willoughby was called “the mousetrap,” because soldiers could get in but not out—no one assigned to Willoughby was transferred until after the armistice, and soldiers were told they would be court-martialed if they revealed what was being manufactured or even where they were stationed.

Gas had not broken the deadlock of trench warfare, and against a properly trained force equipped with masks and skin protection, it was not a wonder weapon. For all the war’s combatants, less than 5 percent of casualties were due to gas. For all but the Russians, who never developed a satisfactory mask, less than 5 percent of the gas casualties were fatal.

Douhet proposed a grand thesis, that airpower in future wars would take the battle beyond the trenches, destroying the enemy’s industrial base and with it the will to resist. The bomber and biological or chemical weapons would complement each other: “One need only imagine what power of destruction that nation would possess whose bacteriologists should discover the means of spreading epidemics in the enemy’s county”.  Douhet was not the only one with plans to combine chemical weapons and airplanes; shortly after the war’s end, the New York Times quoted an unidentified American military source: “Ten airplanes carrying ‘Lewisite’ would have wiped out … every vestige of life—animal and vegetable—in Berlin.”16 Mitchell had planned an assault using incendiary bombs and poison gas on the interior of Germany for 1919. But because the first American night bombers did not arrive at the front before the armistice, his ideas remained untested.

Douhet argued that the object of war was not to defeat the enemy’s army but to destroy the enemy’s will and ability to resist, and that this could best be done by striking behind the front. He saw the airplane as the ultimate offensive weapon; it could soar over the trenches and attack anywhere with great rapidity.

Bombing would win a war, the school taught, not by directly attacking enemy forces but by destroying the enemy’s ability and will to resist. Because a modern society was so complex, removing a few key components of its industrial web—rubber, oil, transportation hubs, steel mills, chemical plants, ballbearing factories—would result in a breakdown of industrial production, an inability to supply troops, and a collapse of civilian and military morale.

The ACTS argument that bombing could win a war was almost entirely theoretical, and events in World War II in Europe would prove it wrong; Britain would survive the Blitz, Germany would maintain war production while under intense and sustained bombing attack, and the Soviet Union would reorganize its economy after abandoning its European industrial base and retreating thousands of miles. In none of these countries did a collapse of either the industrial web or of civilian morale force a surrender or even negotiation.

The ACTS’s precision-bombing doctrine was based on unfounded assumptions, and it ignored problems. First, precision bombing would require visual sighting of targets and would need to be conducted during daytime. But in daylight, bombers would be more vulnerable to enemy fighters. Long-range escort fighters capable of matching the bombers’ range were not seen as technologically feasible, and the Air Corps leadership saw no possibility of getting Congress to simultaneously fund both new bombers and new fighters. So the problem was simply denied: the ACTS assumed that armed bombers flying in tight formation would be able to defend themselves against enemy fighters. Second, daylight precision bombing would require clear weather for targets to be identified. In fact, cloud cover in Europe could last for weeks, as would be seen during World War II. Third, at low altitude, bombers would be vulnerable to enemy anti-aircraft fire. The ACTS solution was to bomb from high altitude. That would admittedly make precision bombing more difficult, but the ACTS instructors assumed that this was a technological problem that could be solved—that an accurate bombsight capable of correcting for aircraft instability, headwinds, tailwinds, and crosswinds—would be developed. Fourth, a long-range, high-altitude, high-payload bomber with multiple defensive guns would be required. The Air Corps assumed that it would eventually get such a plane, although it was unlikely that the War Department or Congress would approve purchase even if one were offered, as it did not fit either of the Air Corps’ defined missions of coastal defense and combat support.27

Between 1936 and 1940, in clear weather, the Air Corps dropped 115,000 practice bombs from an altitude of fifteen thousand feet. After arbitrarily excluding misses of more than a thousand feet, the average miss was still well over three hundred feet.5 The Air Corps’ answer was more bombers dropping more bombs—if one bomber could not hit the target, perhaps forty could. Hap Arnold, in charge of the Air Corps’ combat arm, organized his teams into forty-plane formations that would drop their bombs simultaneously. Accuracy improved, but not by enough. One of the founders of the strategic bombing doctrine, Laurence Kuter, began to lose faith. He calculated that destroying the Sault Ste. Marie locks, one of his Air Corps Tactical School textbook examples, would require 120 bombers and a thousand bombs, which would yield the nine hits that would do the job.

Conant asked Fieser to look into explosions that had damaged a DuPont plant that manufactured divinylacetylene, a chemical used in coatings and in the manufacture of neoprene rubber; if the stuff could blow up a chemical plant, there might be a military use for it. Fieser enlisted E. B. Hershberg, a member of his research group who was a reserve Army officer in the CWS. The two of them poked at different batches of divinylacetylene as it dried, and they watched the batches turn from liquids to gels. At the end of each day, they burned the gels and watched them spark and sputter. Even as they burned, however, the gels did not turn liquid but stayed sticky and viscous. This suggested that a bomb composed of the material might scatter globs of burning gel. Hershberg filled tin cans with black powder and divinylacetylene and set them off in deserted areas in the nearby town of Everett. The results, he reported, were promising.7

CWS’s official history notes that “supplies of M-69 bombs were becoming available in 1943, when the AAF was giving thought to the strategic bombing of Japan. … What was the best incendiary for the new mission?” That question was answered by experiment, by simulating Japanese (and German) housing as closely as possible. At Dugway Proving Grounds in Utah, the NDRC employed Standard Oil Development as the principal contractor in the construction of a “German-Japanese Village” that was repeatedly bombed, burned, and rebuilt.22 Nothing was overlooked in the village’s design. Brick, wood, and tile structures were outfitted with authentic furniture, bedspreads, rugs, draperies, children’s toys, and clothing hanging in closets.

Standard Oil built two types of Japanese roofs as well—tile-on-sheathing and sheet-metal-on-sheathing. To ignite Japanese homes, the tatami mat—the rice-straw mat that was used in flooring nearly every Japanese home—would be key. Ideally, a bomb that had punctured the roof would stop on the mat. If the bomb went through the floor and embedded itself in the earth, a fire would be less likely than if it sprayed burning gel across the tatami, which would yield impressive results: the mat, the paper-and-wood walls, and the futon and zabuton cushions would all quickly ignite. Standard Oil acquired authentic rice-straw tatami mats from Hawaii and the West Coast.

From May through September 1943, four different incendiary bombs were tested on the German-Japanese Village. The napalm-filled M-69 proved most successful.

Everyone involved in the design, the construction, and the repeated destruction and reconstruction of the German-Japanese Village knew exactly what he was doing, and yet no one expressed ethical objections. Euphemisms such as “de-housing” could not disguise what was being done at great expense and effort. The CWS, with the direct support of the AAF, designed and tested a very effective weapon to do precisely what AAF doctrine precluded: to burn civilians in their homes.

 

Fifteen square miles of Tokyo disappeared that night, and more civilians died in Tokyo than would perish in either Hiroshima or Nagasaki a few months later. The Tokyo bombing of March 9–10, 1945, remains the most devastating air raid in history.

The center of the attack hit the Tokyo flatlands, where the Sumida River passed through thousands of wooden workers’ houses. “Around midnight,” Guillain wrote, “the first Superfortresses dropped clusters of the incendiary cylinders the people called ‘Molotov flower baskets.’” These were cluster bombs dispersing M-69 bomblets filled with napalm, and large fires immediately erupted. “The planes that followed, flying lower, circled and criss-crossed the area, leaving great rings of fire behind them. Soon other waves came in to drop their incendiaries inside the ‘marker’ circles. Hell could be no hotter.” The high winds made fighting the fires impossible when a house could be hit by ten or even more of the M-69s, which “were raining down by the thousands.” As they fell, Guillain noted, the cylinders scattered “a kind of flaming dew that skittered along the roofs, setting fire to everything it splashed.” The “flaming dew,” of course, was napalm. Almost immediately the houses, which were made of wood and paper, caught fire, “lighted from inside like paper lanterns.” The results were nightmarish: The hurricane-force winds puffed up great clots of flame and sent burning planks planing through the air to fell people and set fire to what they touched. … In the dense smoke, where the wind was so hot it seared the lungs, people struggled, then burst into flames where they stood. … [I]t was often the refugees’ feet that began burning first: the men’s puttees and the women’s trousers caught fire and ignited the rest of their clothing. Proper air-raid clothing as recommended by the government consisted of a heavily padded hood … to protect people’s ears from bomb blasts. … The hoods flamed under the rain of sparks; people who did not burn from the feet up burned from the head down. Mothers who carried their babies on their backs, Japanese style, would discover too late that the padding that enveloped the infant had caught fire. … Wherever there was a canal, people hurled themselves into the water; in shallow places, people waited, mouths just above the surface of the water. Hundreds of them were later found dead; not drowned, but asphyxiated by the burning air and smoke. … In other places, the water got so hot that the luckless bathers were simply boiled alive.

Curtis LeMay, whom we have seen as the Eighth Air Force’s most successful commander in Europe, planned and directed the Tokyo attack.

“Drafts from the Tokyo fires bounced our airplanes into the sky like ping-pong balls,” LeMay later wrote. “According to the Tokyo fire chief, the situation was out of control within minutes. It was like an explosive forest fire in dry pine woods. The racing flames engulfed ninety-five fire engines and killed one hundred and twenty-five firemen. … About one-fourth of the city went up in smoke that night anyway. More than267,000 buildings.” He quoted the Air Force history of the war, and he italicized the quote: “No other air attack of the war, either in Japan or Europe, was so destructive of life and property.

On March 13, Osaka; March 16, Kobe; March 18, Nagoya again. Five raids in nine days, 32 square miles destroyed in Japan’s four most populous cities—41% of the area the AAF destroyed in all of Germany during the entire war, and at a total cost of only 22 B-29s and their crews.  LeMay quit there, at least for a time—he had run out of napalm.

The idea of destroying Japan with incendiaries was not invented by Curtis LeMay or by Hap Arnold. It had many fathers. Gen. Billy Mitchell had suggested the possibility of burning Japan’s “paper and wood” cities as early as 1924. In November 1941, George Marshall threatened to “set the paper cities of Japan on fire” if war came. Immediately after Pearl Harbor, Churchill recommended “the burning of Japanese cities with incendiary bombs.” President Roosevelt saw in the RAF’s 1943 destruction of Hamburg in an incendiary firestorm “an impressive demonstration” of what might be done to Japan. For the Americans, however, it was important that bombing civilians have the appearance of bombing military targets. A May 1943 request for a bombing plan noted, “It is desired that the areas selected include, or be in the immediate vicinity of, legitimate military targets.

Vannevar Bush recommended that incendiaries be used against Japan, sending Arnold a report in October 1944 that estimated that they were five times as effective as high explosives by weight. Bush did say that switching to incendiaries would require a decision at a high level, but this did not bother Arnold, who already knew that he had the president’s backing. Arnold kept both Marshall and the president informed about firebombing. While they might not explicitly endorse his actions, they did not raise objections.

Even the atomic bomb did not end the incendiary attacks, which continued between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and then after Nagasaki until the Japanese surrender. The AAF wanted to win its independence by defeating Japan without a land invasion (a hope that was “not for public consumption,” as LeMay wrote to Arnold and Norstad),41 but it had no plans beyond running its bombing machine, which worked so smoothly that it had its own momentum.

The AAF exulted in the destruction. One press release crowed that a “fiery perfection” of “jellied fire attacks” had “literally burned Japan out of the war,” that the “vaunted Twentieth” had “killed outright 310,000 Japanese, injured 412,000 more, and rendered 9,200,000 homeless.” For “five flaming months … a thousand All-American planes and 20,000 American men brought homelessness, terror, and death to an arrogant foe, and left him practically a nomad in an almost cityless land.” In his final war dispatch, Arnold found a way to make Americans feel the terror of firebombing. He included a map of Japan, with the name of each of the sixty-six firebombed cities paired with the name of an American city of the same size.‡ So much for Roosevelt’s prewar condemnation that bombing civilians “sickened the hearts of every civilized man and woman.”

FDR did not fund the Briggs Committee, so his scientific adviser Vannevar Bush had the Carnegie Foundation, of which he was director, provide funding for the first few months. Briggs eventually scrounged up enough money from the Naval Research Laboratory to buy Szilard and Italian physicist Enrico Fermi some uranium and graphite, and he then waited for further direction from the president, which was not forthcoming. Sachs, Szilard, and Einstein pressed for action, but there seemed to be no urgency. The United States was not yet at war, and many scientists viewed the whole idea of atomic energy as a pipe dream. The required critical mass of uranium-235 might be tons, and other priorities—a peacetime draft, bombers and their bombsights, Navy ships, radar—were more pressing.

With the fall of France in June 1940, defense work acquired a new urgency for Roosevelt, and Vannevar Bush convinced the president to centralize weapons research and development. Roosevelt authorized formation of the National Defense Research Committee, with Bush at its head and the Briggs Uranium Committee reporting to him. Bush recruited Harvard’s president, James Conant, as an NDRC member and put him in charge of all chemical projects, including explosives and poison gas. The Briggs Committee was getting a bad reputation. Karl Compton, the president of MIT and an NDRC member, sent Bush a letter complaining of Briggs’s incompetence in managing atomic research, pointing out that “our English friends are apparently farther ahead than we are, despite the fact that we have the most in number and the best in quality of the nuclear physicists in the world.” He complained that the Briggs Committee “practically never meets.”6 Bush convened a National Academy of Sciences panel to consider Briggs’s fate. When the panel learned that the British thought they might have a bomb in two years, it recommended “that it would be advisable to have [the Briggs Committee] reconstituted so that a man of action would be the main executive.

Americans extracted as much information as possible from the British. When Roosevelt gave the order to proceed with development of the bomb in March 1942, the Manhattan Project was born. The Americans had more money, engineering resources, and émigré scientists than did the British and soon took the lead. Bush, Conant, and Gen. Leslie Groves, the Project’s military director, imposed a policy of “restricted interchange,” refusing to give the British scientists any information that would not contribute to developing a weapon during the current war. Security considerations were certainly important in that decision, but both sides also had their eyes on the postwar strategic balance and on the profits to be made from nuclear energy. British scientists and administrators pressed Churchill to demand full information sharing, and Churchill duly pressed Roosevelt. More than a year later, in August 1943, the two leaders signed what would be known as the “Quebec Agreement”: the two nations would pool their resources, and information would be freely exchanged among scientists working in the same field.9 (This free exchange would eventually allow the Soviet spy Klaus Fuchs, a member of the British team, access to Los Alamos.)

When the Germans were advancing, from 1940 to1942, they had no interest in gas because it would have slowed them down. From 1943 on, their cities were vulnerable to aerial gas attacks, especially after the Normandy invasion, when the Allies had air superiority. And near the end of the war in Europe, when Hitler might have been willing to use his secret nerve gases in scorched-earth revenge warfare, confusion and the interference of subordinates would have made gas attacks difficult to organize.

Roosevelt deserves much of the credit for the worldwide forbearance. Both he and his predecessor Herbert Hoover detested gas. When Congress passed a bill in 1937 promoting the Chemical Warfare Service to a Corps—with the same status as the infantry or artillery—FDR vetoed it, saying, “It has been and is the policy of this Government to do everything in its power to outlaw the use of chemicals in warfare. Such use is inhuman. … I hope the time will come when the Chemical Warfare Service can be entirely abolished.”1 He maintained that attitude throughout the war, threatening retaliation against any enemy’s first use. And he kept Churchill, who several times considered using gas, on a short leash.

Gen. Robert Travis, the commander of the nuclear mission to Guam, rode as a passenger on one of the B-29s. Takeoff conditions were ideal, with the wind almost directly head-on at seventeen knots. The pilot ran a full power check and released the brakes for takeoff. Just as he lifted off, his number two engine failed, and he feathered its propeller. Then the landing gear failed to retract, and when he tried to make a 180-degree turn, he could not keep the left wing up. He slid the plane to the left to avoid a trailer court and crash-landed, left wing down, at 120 mph. The crew escaped with minor injuries, but twelve passengers, including Gen. Travis, were killed. Twenty minutes after the crash, the chemical high explosives in the atomic bomb detonated, scattering tamper uranium, killing seven more and injuring 173 others. Only nine atomic bombs arrived in Guam.

Truman and Secretary of Defense Johnson had slashed the pre–Korean War defense budget under the assumption that possessing the atomic bomb would allow the United States to wage war on the cheap. Throughout the Korean War, both the military and the president had considered use of the bomb but had never found the right moment. Oppenheimer summed it up: “Are [atomic bombs] useful in ground combat? … What can we do with them?”26 Truman had his own ideas, which the Joint Chiefs or even LeMay would have been unlikely to approve. In his diary, Truman imagined giving the Soviet Union a ten-day ultimatum: either withdraw all Chinese troops from Korea or America would use its atomic weapons to destroy every military base in Manchuria, including any ports and cities.

 

 

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