Trump & Project 2025 want to destroy energy efficiency & raise your utility bills

Source: (NYT 2017, LBL 2025)

The Department of energy (DOE) under Chris Wright is proposing to get rid of energy efficiency standards that have saved consumers over 1.5 trillion dollars (CFA 2017).

The average American home saves $321 a year on energy bills due to appliance and equipment energy efficiency regulations. Since 1990: Clothes washers use 70% less energy, dishwashers 40%, air conditioners 50%, furnaces 10%, and water heater standards have saved $124 billion in energy and $1800 over the life of the water heater per household (USDOE 2017).

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The only congressional hearing on Peak Oil was in 2005

Preface. This U.S. House hearing happened 20 years ago, but it is still a good introduction to why oil is so important to society. At this hearing scientific experts spoke, warning that we will reach peak oil within decades (which does NOT mean running out of oil, but halfway through the supply and getting too late to adapt to a different future with less energy). This hearing was highly unusual since usually only corporations with vested interests speak to promote their energy schemes they stand to profit from with government subsidies and tax breaks.

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Tom Murphy Stubborn Expectations (on population)

U.N.Total fertility rate projections

Preface. Tom Murphy has one of the best blogs on limits to growth, peak everything and more from the point of view of math and physics called Do The Math. Tom Murphy is a professor emeritus of the departments of Physics and Astronomy & Astrophysics at the University of California, San Diego.  Best of all, he has written a free online textbook that explains the limitations of all the renewable and alternative replacements for fossil fuels here. This beats anything I write because Tom uses proven scientific facts and equations to explain why these “solutions” are inadequate and will not work.

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NIMBY Hydrogen production

Preface.  Across America groups are opposing new hydrogen production, mainly funded by $8 billion of government hydrogen hub (H2Hubs) money.

The main reasons are a lack of transparency, pollution, and that most hydrogen would cause even more drilling since it will be blue hydrogen made out of natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCUS).

CCUS requires so much water it could double the water footprint of humanity (Rosa 2021).

Water shortages are an issue at a proposed $2.5 billion-dollar electrolyzer facility near Corpus Christi and on Navajo nation land in Arizona, who also oppose a 200-mile pipeline that might rupture and explode (Keetso 2023, Kusnetz 2022, Robles 2024).

IRENA (2023) reports that 35% of future hydrogen production in the world planned by 2040 is in highly water-stressed regions.

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Can Geothermal power replace declining fossil fuels?

Preface. Today the electric grid stays up because of months of backup power from natural gas, coal, and uranium.  Most of all natural gas because it can quickly balance wind and solar as they suddenly appear or die out. Natural gas also provides peak power during the hottest and coldest times of the year, and ramps up as the sun goes down massively, since this happens before peak evening demand.  Geothermal power can’t provide this balance, it can only be used like coal and nuclear to provide steady baseload power.  Still, wind and solar need all the help they can get, especially in California where all of the best wind and solar sites have been built out.

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Telling others about peak oil and limits to growth

Preface. Obviously the planet is finite. We’re using many times more oil than we’re discovering, and therefore at some point global oil production will peak and decline.  In fact, global conventional and unconventional oil production peaked in 2018 and conventional in 2008.

Yet even now this reality is denied by most. This 2024 article from Scientific American has a good explanation of why: We’ve Hit Peak Denial. Here’s Why We Can’t Turn Away From Reality. We are living through a terrible time in humanity. Here’s why we tend to stick our heads in the sand and why we need to pull them out, fast.

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Why coal was only created once

Preface.  Coal only formed once on Earth over hundreds of millions of years because they had lignin and cellulose that microbes hadn’t yet evolved to consume. Eventually they did, and today termites, cows and other creatures are able to digest cellulose and lignin by outsourcing the job to microbes in their guts.  But it is still such a  complex process that scientists haven’t been able to copy it, which is why cellulosic ethanol is still not commercial and takes more energy and money to make than is returned.

Coal is still forming today, but will take tens if not hundreds of millions of years to form again, in far smaller amounts than in the Carboniferous period since it is forming from peat rather than hundreds of billions of trees.

I think that the reason we haven’t detected other civilizations, the Fermi paradox, is because fossil fuels didn’t form on most planets in the universe.  If they did, the odds are very high that intelligent life never evolved, as explained in the book by Ward & Brownlee “Rare Earth: Why Complex life is Uncommon in the Universe” (see my review here, and new science about why life may be rare in the universe here).   Even if intelligent life evolved, it may have lacked the dexterity of an oppositional thumb.  Or a history that led to inventing steam engines, and many more contingencies. Even if intelligent beings on other planets did evolve and discover coal, oil, and natural gas and built civilizations like ours, the distances between planets are too far apart, let alone stars or other galaxies, so they never went anywhere. And we didn’t detect their radio signals because like us, they exponentially consumed fossils until they went back to life before fossil fuels within 250 years.

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Failed Nations

Preface.  This is the Fund for Peace Fragile States Index. The “Download data in excel” column has years 2006 to 2023.

In 2007, there were 17 nations (of 179) more stable than the USA: Singapore Portugal Netherlands Japan Luxembourg Austria Belgium Canada Australia Denmark Iceland New Zealand Switzerland Ireland Sweden Finland Norway

In 2022, there were 39 nations (of 179) states more stable than the USA: Barbados Spain Italy Chile Latvia Israel Qatar Poland Costa Rica United Kingdom Czechia United Arab Emirates Lithuania Mauritius Estonia Slovakia Uruguay Malta South Korea Belgium Japan France Slovenia Portugal Singapore Austria Germany Australia Netherlands Sweden Ireland Canada Luxembourg Switzerland Denmark New Zealand Iceland Norway Finland

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We have a date for the zenith of civilization: 2025-2026

Preface. I have no idea who wrote this at:

https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/

This is the google English translation of a post in Spanish. The rough peaking date for civilization is around 2025-2026 given: 1) peak oil soon, but still on a plateau until the Permian fracked oil peaks 2) same for peak copper in 2025-6 (essential for all renewable contraptions to replace oil, vehicles, batteries etc), and 3) at some point (date not specified here) the tremendous debt-supply bubble will burst. If the images from the article have vanished, go to the original article to see them.

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Escape to Mars after we’ve trashed the Earth?

find-another-planet-climate-changePreface. The idea that we can go to Mars is touted by NASA, Elon Musk, and so many others that this dream seems just around the corner.  If we destroy our planet with climate change, pollution, biodiversity loss, soil erosion, aquifer depletion and more, no problem!  We can go to Mars.  Or float around in space on hoverchairs like in the movie Wall-E, where people have escaped to outer space after Earth became a giant garbage dump from rampant consumerism, corporate greed, and environmental disasters.

Though with world peak crude oil production likely by 2027, there may not be enough fuel to get there. Or need to go there. As Ugo Bardi pointed out in his book Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet we already have gone to another planet by exploiting Earth so ruthlessly:

“The planet has been plundered to the utmost limit, and what we will be left with are only the ashes of a gigantic fire. We are leaving to our descendants a heavy legacy in terms of radioactive waste, heavy metals dispersed all over the planet, and greenhouse gases—mainly CO2—accumulated in the atmosphere and absorbed in the oceans. It appears that we found a way to travel to another planet without the need for building spaceships.  It is not obvious that we’ll like the place, but there is no way back; we’ll have to adapt to the new conditions. It will not be easy, and we can speculate that it will lead to the collapse of the structure we call civilization, or even the extinction of the human species”.

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