Dozens of reasons why solar power can’t replace fossil fuels

Posted on June 6, 2022 by

Preface. Last update 2024-6-3. All solar (and wind) do is add to the giant bonfire of burning fossil fuels — which still provide two-thirds of the power for the electric grid. Electricity is just a fraction of how we use energy, over 80% is fossil fueled because electricity can’t replace their use in fertilizer, transportation, and half a million products made out of fossil fuels (i.e. plastic). There are no ways to make cement with electricity, or iron, glass, microchips, bricks, ceramics and other products that need the very high heat of fossil fuels. Without natural gas, the electric grid won’t be able to stay up since there are no other options for storage that scale up.  All of this explained at great length in my books.

When you hear things like “solar power provided 100% of California’s power today”, no it didn’t. For a few hours it provided 100% of ELECTRIC power, and the money lost by all the other power providers that had to shut down, the ones that actually assure reliability to the grid since solar and wind are extremely unreliable and seasonal, means that they are headed for early retirement at best and go out of business at worst. Coal and nuclear power plants can’t balance power because it damages them, it takes many hours to ramp them up or down. 

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Solar power contraptions require oil for every single step of their life cycle

Look at all the fossil energy used to make solar panels in this youtube video: How It’s Made Solar Panels

If solar power and concentrated solar power plants can’t produce enough power to replicate themselves entirely over their life cycle, plus produce the energy needed by society, then they are not sustainable. Every single step of their life cycle depends on fossil fuels, from diesel mining trucks, diesel ships to take the ore to facilities that use fossil fuels to crush the rock, coal blast and smelting furnaces for steel, kilns for cement platforms, transportation of the myriad parts from all over the globe to the manufacturing facility, and finally delivery to the solar farm, where workers arrive in diesel and gasoline burning vehicles over petroleum asphalt roads.

The more solar (and wind) power you add, the more fossil fuels you need to balance their intermittent variable power 

Ralph Vartabedian. 9 Dec 2012.  Rise in renewable energy will require more use of fossil fuels. Los Angeles Times.

Solar power is seasonal

The Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) is NEGATIVE

A National Grid is not going to happen

The higher the percent of intermittent, unreliable, and variable solar power, the more unstable the electric grid becomes

Energy density: too much land for too little power

Solar Farms threaten food security as they expand over thousands of acres of the best farmland

The Renewable Energy Land Rush Could Threaten Food Security

Renewable energy projects are often competing for some of the most valuable agricultural land, presenting serious challenges and trade-offs among two of the world’s most critical sectors. A recent deep-diving Reuters analysis based on huge swaths of data and key stakeholder interviews reveals that the renewable energy boom risks damaging some of the United States’ richest soils in its most important farming states. 

Solar farms clear huge areas of land of all vegetation, making the soil extremely vulnerable to erosion and allowing precious topsoil to simply dry up and blow away, threatening dust-bowl conditions and a total loss of future agricultural viability in affected areas. The loss of this topsoil cannot be reversed in any meaningful timeline. “The reality is that it takes thousands of years to create an inch of fertile topsoil,” warns National Geographic, “but it can be destroyed in minutes.”

On the whole, farmers struggle to make a profit through agriculture and largely rely on federal support and subsidies to stay afloat. But if they sell or lease their land for conversion to renewable energy production projects, they stand to make a much bigger paycheck. Regardless of whether it’s actually the best use of the land or the best decision for the United States’ food security, it’s certainly the best financial decision for the landholder. [my comment: as climate change continues to reduce the profitability of farming, this trend is likely to continue, especially in states with solar subsidies.

In a business-as-usual scenario, forecasts show that 83% of new solar energy development in the U.S. will be on farm and ranchland, according to researchers from the American Farmland Trust. Nearly half of that land is the country’s most prime agricultural land.

Wind and solar can’t substitute for all fossil fuel uses (my book Life After Fossil Fuels is all about this)

If solar is so great and cheap, why is it mainly built in states with subsidies?

Not enough materials for solar

Breakthroughs in the news don’t pan out

Solar PV, wind turbines, and hydro-power destroy biodiversity

Solar PV & wind turbines are built with rare and expensive metals and minerals with declining ores that require more fossil fuels to obtain

The Era of Cheap Renewables Grinds To A Halt. Raw material shortages, notably in metals and minerals and polysilicon are impacting the renewable energy industry. The cost of solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries is climbing after years of declines. Solar panel prices had surged by more than 50% in the past 12 months alone. The price of wind turbines is up 13% and battery prices are rising for the first time ever

Solar panels are tossed in the garbage. Not recycled.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2020) in Nature Energy warns that by the end of their lifetime, 80 million tons of solar panel waste could end up in landfills globally, 10% of all electronic waste, and generating 6 million metric tons of new solar e-waste. The U.S. has no dedicated solar panel recyclers, because it’s expensive and dirty (Panos K (2020) The Dark Side of Solar Power)

Today’s Conditions Do Not Encourage PV Recycling. NREL goes on to say that in the baseline scenario that reflects today’s conditions, 500 gigawatts of PV are assumed to be installed in the U.S. by 2050 (compared to 104 gigawatts in 2020), generating 9.1 million metric tons of PV waste. Based on the limited information publicly available today, the authors modeled average recycling cost of $28 per module, repair at $65 per module, and landfill at $1.38 per module, where used modules are modeled to be sold at 36% of new module prices.

From 2020 to 2050 in the modeled baseline conditions, approximately 80% of modules are landfilled, 1% are reused, and 10% are recycled. With today’s material recovery rate, the recycled mass totals just 0.7 million metric tons through 2050, or approximately 8%.

“With today’s technology, PV modules are difficult to separate, and the process recovers mostly low-value materials,” Walzberg said. “Because of this, there currently isn’t enough revenue from recycling to offset the high costs, and therefore very little mass is recycled. Our model shows this could lead to a major waste problem by 2050.”

Ironically, advances in solar technology lead to existing solar installations being replaced, further adding to landfills long before their 30 year lifetime (Duran et al (2021) Cleaning after Solar Panels: A Circular Outlook).

Manufacturing solar panels is a dirty process from start to finish

Mulvaney D (2014) Solar Energy Isn’t Always as Green as You Think. Do cheaper photovoltaics providing solar energy come with a higher environmental price tag? spectrum.ieee.org.  Mining quartz for silicon causes the lung disease silicosis, and the production of solar cells uses a lot of energy, water, and toxic chemicals.

Solar panels hinder solar power production (Bradstock 2022)

As the world heats up, people may think that more sun will bring more solar energy, even if it has been negative for many other reasons. But soaring temperatures may be hindering solar power production as solar panels work optimally at around 25 C (77 F) and start becoming less efficient when the heat goes above this. They lose half a percent less efficient per degree C above 25 C, which is why peak production in much of the world occurs in the spring when temperatures are cooler.

Climate change and extreme weather destroy solar panels

Solar panels could cause global warming

Solar panels are dark to absorb more heat, usually much darker than the ground around them and about 15% efficient in converting sunlight into usable energy. The rest is returned as heat to the surrounding environment, affecting the climate. In order to replace fossil fuels, solar farms would need to cover tens of thousands of square miles which potentially presents environmental consequences, not just locally but globally. Study warns solar farms could unleash unintended consequences on the environment, including global warming NEWS Large-scale solar and wind turbine farms could trigger negative affects on the climate around the world.

Solar often doesn’t perform as well as touted, discouraging investment

Energyworld (2022) India’s solar irradiance 7 per cent below long-term average for past 10 years. Levels below what’s expected for this long will increase the costs of new facilities and discourage investors. It’s especially likely in highly developed areas where pollution, aerosols and cloud cover reduce performance. This worsens investment already suffering from the phase out of tax credits, subsidies, price volatility, and higher supply chain costs. Significant variations have also been seen in North America and Australia.

China controls all stages of solar panel production & many minerals

Today, China’s share in all the manufacturing stages of solar panels (such as polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells and modules) exceeds 80% and the world’s 10 top suppliers of solar PV manufacturing equipment. The world will almost completely rely on China for the supply of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025. Based on manufacturing capacity under construction, China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot and wafer production will soon reach almost 95%. Today, China’s Xinjiang province accounts for 40% global polysilicon manufacturing. Moreover, one out of every seven panels produced worldwide is manufactured by a single facility. This level of concentration in any global supply chain would represent a considerable vulnerability; solar PV is no exception. The PV industry’s demand for minerals is set to expand significantly. In the IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions by 2050 demand for silver for solar PV manufacturing in 2030 could exceed 30% of total global silver production in 2020 – up from about 10% today. This rapid growth, combined with long lead times for mining projects, increases the risk of supply and demand mismatches, which can lead to cost increases and supply shortages (IEA 2021, 2022; VC 2022).

NIMBY – people don’t want solar farms and fight to stop them

New solar projects are increasing due to the huge tax credits available for clean energy in the Inflation Reduction Act. Environmentalists worry about deforestation, wetland destruction, and fertile soils may be harmed.

Lewis M (2021) The US’s largest solar farm is canceled because Nevada locals don’t want to look at it. electrek.co   The 850 megawatt, 9,200-acre solar farm, which would have been constructed in southern Nevada’s Moapa Valley, was to sit on 14 square miles on the Mormon Mesa, a flat-topped hill around 50 miles northeast of Las Vegas.

Milman O (2022) ‘It’s got nasty’: the battle to build the US’s biggest solar power farm. A community turns on itself over the aptly named Mammoth solar project, a planned $1.5bn power field nearly the size of Manhattan. The Guardian.  The several million mirrors would be put on 13,000 acres (20 square miles) of prime farmland.

WRDB (2022) Permit denied for proposed solar farm in Hardin County, Kentucky.

Zuckerman J (2022) Ten Ohio counties ban wind, solar projects under new state law. Ohio Capital Journal.

Supply chain breakdowns for solar panels

China and their factories in other Southeast Asian countries have dominated the global supply chain for solar panels over a decade. Last year only 20% of solar panels installed were made in the U.S.

Gelles D (2022) Solar Industry ‘Frozen’ as Biden Administration Investigates China. More than 300 solar projects in the United States have been canceled or delayed in recent weeks. New York Times. Around the country, solar companies are delaying projects, scrambling for supplies, shutting down construction sites and warning that tens of billions of dollars — and tens of thousands of jobs — are at risk. “The industry is essentially frozen,” said Leah Stokes, a political scientist who studies climate at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Delayed examples: 23 square miles (60 square km) of solar panels in Vermont. A solar farm in Maine to power hundreds of homes. Texas: project to power 10,000 homes.

IEA (2021) Special report on solar PV global supply chains. International Energy Agency. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d2ee601d-6b1a-4cd2-a0e8-db02dc64332c/SpecialReportonSolarPVGlobalSupplyChains.pdf

IEA (2022) China currently dominates global solar PV supply chains. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv-global-supply-chains/executive-summary

VC (2022) Who controls the Solar Panel Supply Chain? Visual Capitalist.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-dominance-solar-panel-supply-chain/

The Shockley-Queisser Limit — no 10-fold gains left

Moore’s Law has led the scientifically illiterate to expect vast improvements in everything. At the very most, a maximum of about 33% of incoming photons can be converted into electrons. State-of-the-art commercial PVs achieve just over 26% conversion efficiency—which is close to the boundary. While researchers keep finding non-silicon options with performance improvements, all have similar physics boundaries, and none is remotely close to being at a commercial level and often improvements would be too expensive or fragile to scale up.

Concentrated Solar Power

Orbiting Solar

Orbiting Solar: launch costs way too high, too many technical issues

Too many toxic chemicals, byproducts, and greenhouse gases

  • Chemicals: hydrochloric acid, hydroflouric acid, sodium hydroxide, sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrogen fluoride, phosphine and arsine gas, phosphorus oxychloride and trichloride, boron bromite and trichloride, lead.
  • Byproducts: trichlorosilane gas, silicon tetrachloride, toxic particluates from wafer sawing
  • Greenhouse gases: Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) – 25,000 times more potent than CO2, Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) – 17,000 times more potent than CO2, Hexafluoroethane (C2F6) – 12,000 times more potent than CO2

Varanasi A (2020) India Is Using More Solar Energy—but It Carries a Lead Risk. In rural areas, solar power is stored in lead batteries. If they aren’t properly recycled, contamination can cause health problems. Wired.

Solar panels catch on fire

In 2019, Walmart sued Tesla over solar panel fires at 7 of their stores. In 2022, Amazon took all U.S. solar panels off their roofs after they caught fire at 6 fulfillment centers. If you do an internet search you’ll find more incidents.  But there’s no centralized record of solar fires, so no one knows how often they happen, if the risk is increasing or not, and which designs or installation mistakes may be at fault (White 2019).

White T (2019) Hot roofs and high voltage: The case of the burning solar panels Recent electrical fires at Walmart raise the question, is rooftop solar power safe?

Not enough fossils left to build renewable solar and other contraptions: Peak Oil is Here!

Richard Heinberg: “Oil has become far more expensive in the past decade; production costs are rising at over 10 percent per year. The major petroleum companies are investing much more in exploration today, but their production rates are declining. For oil, the low-hanging fruit is gone. Does Krugman believe there is still excess production capacity for oil to use in building out renewable infrastructure, while still meeting the needs of the rest of the economy? If not, how will society maintain economic growth during the energy transition? If so, what part of the economy would need to contract in order to shift oil consumption to the renewables build-out, so as not to lead to increased overall use of climate-altering fossil fuels during the transition?”

Trucks are the basis of civilization. They can only run on diesel fuel, not on electricity, so what’s the point of building solar facilities?

When Trucks Stop Running, So Does Civilization. Energy and the Future of Transportation

Why trucks can’t be electrified

Soft costs are increasing

Soft costs are increasing. With a significant increase in the volume of solar projects in recent years, utilities must devote more time to processing applications that may be incomplete or coming in at a clip that staff can’t keep up with. Over time, that leads to longer application cycles, which builds to higher costs, which means fewer projects overall. Additional soft costs include engineering and the interconnection of solar installations, especially if storage is added (Merchant EF (2020) DOE-Backed Interconnection Project Takes Aim at Solar’s Pernicious “Soft Costs” U.S. solar companies face a tangle of state-by-state, utility-by-utility rules to interconnect projects — and batteries further complicate things. Greentechmedia.com).

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