Dozens of reasons why solar power can’t replace fossil fuels

Preface. Last update 2024-6-3. All solar (and wind) do is add to the giant bonfire of burning fossil fuels — which still provide two-thirds of the power for the electric grid. Electricity is just a fraction of how we use energy, over 80% is fossil fueled because electricity can’t replace their use in fertilizer, transportation, and half a million products made out of fossil fuels (i.e. plastic). There are no ways to make cement with electricity, or iron, glass, microchips, bricks, ceramics and other products that need the very high heat of fossil fuels. Without natural gas, the electric grid won’t be able to stay up since there are no other options for storage that scale up.  All of this explained at great length in my books.

When you hear things like “solar power provided 100% of California’s power today”, no it didn’t. For a few hours it provided 100% of ELECTRIC power, and the money lost by all the other power providers that had to shut down, the ones that actually assure reliability to the grid since solar and wind are extremely unreliable and seasonal, means that they are headed for early retirement at best and go out of business at worst. Coal and nuclear power plants can’t balance power because it damages them, it takes many hours to ramp them up or down. 

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Solar power contraptions require oil for every single step of their life cycle

Look at all the fossil energy used to make solar panels in this youtube video: How It’s Made Solar Panels

If solar power and concentrated solar power plants can’t produce enough power to replicate themselves entirely over their life cycle, plus produce the energy needed by society, then they are not sustainable. Every single step of their life cycle depends on fossil fuels, from diesel mining trucks, diesel ships to take the ore to facilities that use fossil fuels to crush the rock, coal blast and smelting furnaces for steel, kilns for cement platforms, transportation of the myriad parts from all over the globe to the manufacturing facility, and finally delivery to the solar farm, where workers arrive in diesel and gasoline burning vehicles over petroleum asphalt roads.

The more solar (and wind) power you add, the more fossil fuels you need to balance their intermittent variable power 

Ralph Vartabedian. 9 Dec 2012.  Rise in renewable energy will require more use of fossil fuels. Los Angeles Times.

Solar power is seasonal

The Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) is NEGATIVE

A National Grid is not going to happen

The higher the percent of intermittent, unreliable, and variable solar power, the more unstable the electric grid becomes

Energy density: too much land for too little power

Solar Farms threaten food security as they expand over thousands of acres of the best farmland

The Renewable Energy Land Rush Could Threaten Food Security

Renewable energy projects are often competing for some of the most valuable agricultural land, presenting serious challenges and trade-offs among two of the world’s most critical sectors. A recent deep-diving Reuters analysis based on huge swaths of data and key stakeholder interviews reveals that the renewable energy boom risks damaging some of the United States’ richest soils in its most important farming states. 

Solar farms clear huge areas of land of all vegetation, making the soil extremely vulnerable to erosion and allowing precious topsoil to simply dry up and blow away, threatening dust-bowl conditions and a total loss of future agricultural viability in affected areas. The loss of this topsoil cannot be reversed in any meaningful timeline. “The reality is that it takes thousands of years to create an inch of fertile topsoil,” warns National Geographic, “but it can be destroyed in minutes.”

On the whole, farmers struggle to make a profit through agriculture and largely rely on federal support and subsidies to stay afloat. But if they sell or lease their land for conversion to renewable energy production projects, they stand to make a much bigger paycheck. Regardless of whether it’s actually the best use of the land or the best decision for the United States’ food security, it’s certainly the best financial decision for the landholder. [my comment: as climate change continues to reduce the profitability of farming, this trend is likely to continue, especially in states with solar subsidies.

In a business-as-usual scenario, forecasts show that 83% of new solar energy development in the U.S. will be on farm and ranchland, according to researchers from the American Farmland Trust. Nearly half of that land is the country’s most prime agricultural land.

Wind and solar can’t substitute for all fossil fuel uses (my book Life After Fossil Fuels is all about this)

If solar is so great and cheap, why is it mainly built in states with subsidies?

Not enough materials for solar

Breakthroughs in the news don’t pan out

Solar PV, wind turbines, and hydro-power destroy biodiversity

Solar PV & wind turbines are built with rare and expensive metals and minerals with declining ores that require more fossil fuels to obtain

The Era of Cheap Renewables Grinds To A Halt. Raw material shortages, notably in metals and minerals and polysilicon are impacting the renewable energy industry. The cost of solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries is climbing after years of declines. Solar panel prices had surged by more than 50% in the past 12 months alone. The price of wind turbines is up 13% and battery prices are rising for the first time ever

Solar panels are tossed in the garbage. Not recycled.

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (2020) in Nature Energy warns that by the end of their lifetime, 80 million tons of solar panel waste could end up in landfills globally, 10% of all electronic waste, and generating 6 million metric tons of new solar e-waste. The U.S. has no dedicated solar panel recyclers, because it’s expensive and dirty (Panos K (2020) The Dark Side of Solar Power)

Today’s Conditions Do Not Encourage PV Recycling. NREL goes on to say that in the baseline scenario that reflects today’s conditions, 500 gigawatts of PV are assumed to be installed in the U.S. by 2050 (compared to 104 gigawatts in 2020), generating 9.1 million metric tons of PV waste. Based on the limited information publicly available today, the authors modeled average recycling cost of $28 per module, repair at $65 per module, and landfill at $1.38 per module, where used modules are modeled to be sold at 36% of new module prices.

From 2020 to 2050 in the modeled baseline conditions, approximately 80% of modules are landfilled, 1% are reused, and 10% are recycled. With today’s material recovery rate, the recycled mass totals just 0.7 million metric tons through 2050, or approximately 8%.

“With today’s technology, PV modules are difficult to separate, and the process recovers mostly low-value materials,” Walzberg said. “Because of this, there currently isn’t enough revenue from recycling to offset the high costs, and therefore very little mass is recycled. Our model shows this could lead to a major waste problem by 2050.”

Ironically, advances in solar technology lead to existing solar installations being replaced, further adding to landfills long before their 30 year lifetime (Duran et al (2021) Cleaning after Solar Panels: A Circular Outlook).

Manufacturing solar panels is a dirty process from start to finish

Mulvaney D (2014) Solar Energy Isn’t Always as Green as You Think. Do cheaper photovoltaics providing solar energy come with a higher environmental price tag? spectrum.ieee.org.  Mining quartz for silicon causes the lung disease silicosis, and the production of solar cells uses a lot of energy, water, and toxic chemicals.

Solar panels hinder solar power production (Bradstock 2022)

As the world heats up, people may think that more sun will bring more solar energy, even if it has been negative for many other reasons. But soaring temperatures may be hindering solar power production as solar panels work optimally at around 25 C (77 F) and start becoming less efficient when the heat goes above this. They lose half a percent less efficient per degree C above 25 C, which is why peak production in much of the world occurs in the spring when temperatures are cooler.

Climate change and extreme weather destroy solar panels

Solar panels could cause global warming

Solar panels are dark to absorb more heat, usually much darker than the ground around them and about 15% efficient in converting sunlight into usable energy. The rest is returned as heat to the surrounding environment, affecting the climate. In order to replace fossil fuels, solar farms would need to cover tens of thousands of square miles which potentially presents environmental consequences, not just locally but globally. Study warns solar farms could unleash unintended consequences on the environment, including global warming NEWS Large-scale solar and wind turbine farms could trigger negative affects on the climate around the world.

Solar often doesn’t perform as well as touted, discouraging investment

Energyworld (2022) India’s solar irradiance 7 per cent below long-term average for past 10 years. Levels below what’s expected for this long will increase the costs of new facilities and discourage investors. It’s especially likely in highly developed areas where pollution, aerosols and cloud cover reduce performance. This worsens investment already suffering from the phase out of tax credits, subsidies, price volatility, and higher supply chain costs. Significant variations have also been seen in North America and Australia.

China controls all stages of solar panel production & many minerals

Today, China’s share in all the manufacturing stages of solar panels (such as polysilicon, ingots, wafers, cells and modules) exceeds 80% and the world’s 10 top suppliers of solar PV manufacturing equipment. The world will almost completely rely on China for the supply of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025. Based on manufacturing capacity under construction, China’s share of global polysilicon, ingot and wafer production will soon reach almost 95%. Today, China’s Xinjiang province accounts for 40% global polysilicon manufacturing. Moreover, one out of every seven panels produced worldwide is manufactured by a single facility. This level of concentration in any global supply chain would represent a considerable vulnerability; solar PV is no exception. The PV industry’s demand for minerals is set to expand significantly. In the IEA’s Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions by 2050 demand for silver for solar PV manufacturing in 2030 could exceed 30% of total global silver production in 2020 – up from about 10% today. This rapid growth, combined with long lead times for mining projects, increases the risk of supply and demand mismatches, which can lead to cost increases and supply shortages (IEA 2021, 2022; VC 2022).

NIMBY – people don’t want solar farms and fight to stop them

New solar projects are increasing due to the huge tax credits available for clean energy in the Inflation Reduction Act. Environmentalists worry about deforestation, wetland destruction, and fertile soils may be harmed.

Lewis M (2021) The US’s largest solar farm is canceled because Nevada locals don’t want to look at it. electrek.co   The 850 megawatt, 9,200-acre solar farm, which would have been constructed in southern Nevada’s Moapa Valley, was to sit on 14 square miles on the Mormon Mesa, a flat-topped hill around 50 miles northeast of Las Vegas.

Milman O (2022) ‘It’s got nasty’: the battle to build the US’s biggest solar power farm. A community turns on itself over the aptly named Mammoth solar project, a planned $1.5bn power field nearly the size of Manhattan. The Guardian.  The several million mirrors would be put on 13,000 acres (20 square miles) of prime farmland.

WRDB (2022) Permit denied for proposed solar farm in Hardin County, Kentucky.

Zuckerman J (2022) Ten Ohio counties ban wind, solar projects under new state law. Ohio Capital Journal.

Supply chain breakdowns for solar panels

China and their factories in other Southeast Asian countries have dominated the global supply chain for solar panels over a decade. Last year only 20% of solar panels installed were made in the U.S.

Gelles D (2022) Solar Industry ‘Frozen’ as Biden Administration Investigates China. More than 300 solar projects in the United States have been canceled or delayed in recent weeks. New York Times. Around the country, solar companies are delaying projects, scrambling for supplies, shutting down construction sites and warning that tens of billions of dollars — and tens of thousands of jobs — are at risk. “The industry is essentially frozen,” said Leah Stokes, a political scientist who studies climate at the University of California, Santa Barbara. Delayed examples: 23 square miles (60 square km) of solar panels in Vermont. A solar farm in Maine to power hundreds of homes. Texas: project to power 10,000 homes.

IEA (2021) Special report on solar PV global supply chains. International Energy Agency. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d2ee601d-6b1a-4cd2-a0e8-db02dc64332c/SpecialReportonSolarPVGlobalSupplyChains.pdf

IEA (2022) China currently dominates global solar PV supply chains. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/solar-pv-global-supply-chains/executive-summary

VC (2022) Who controls the Solar Panel Supply Chain? Visual Capitalist.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/chinas-dominance-solar-panel-supply-chain/

The Shockley-Queisser Limit — no 10-fold gains left

Moore’s Law has led the scientifically illiterate to expect vast improvements in everything. At the very most, a maximum of about 33% of incoming photons can be converted into electrons. State-of-the-art commercial PVs achieve just over 26% conversion efficiency—which is close to the boundary. While researchers keep finding non-silicon options with performance improvements, all have similar physics boundaries, and none is remotely close to being at a commercial level and often improvements would be too expensive or fragile to scale up.

Concentrated Solar Power

Orbiting Solar

Orbiting Solar: launch costs way too high, too many technical issues

Too many toxic chemicals, byproducts, and greenhouse gases

  • Chemicals: hydrochloric acid, hydroflouric acid, sodium hydroxide, sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrogen fluoride, phosphine and arsine gas, phosphorus oxychloride and trichloride, boron bromite and trichloride, lead.
  • Byproducts: trichlorosilane gas, silicon tetrachloride, toxic particluates from wafer sawing
  • Greenhouse gases: Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) – 25,000 times more potent than CO2, Nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) – 17,000 times more potent than CO2, Hexafluoroethane (C2F6) – 12,000 times more potent than CO2

Varanasi A (2020) India Is Using More Solar Energy—but It Carries a Lead Risk. In rural areas, solar power is stored in lead batteries. If they aren’t properly recycled, contamination can cause health problems. Wired.

Solar panels catch on fire

In 2019, Walmart sued Tesla over solar panel fires at 7 of their stores. In 2022, Amazon took all U.S. solar panels off their roofs after they caught fire at 6 fulfillment centers. If you do an internet search you’ll find more incidents.  But there’s no centralized record of solar fires, so no one knows how often they happen, if the risk is increasing or not, and which designs or installation mistakes may be at fault (White 2019).

White T (2019) Hot roofs and high voltage: The case of the burning solar panels Recent electrical fires at Walmart raise the question, is rooftop solar power safe?

Not enough fossils left to build renewable solar and other contraptions: Peak Oil is Here!

Richard Heinberg: “Oil has become far more expensive in the past decade; production costs are rising at over 10 percent per year. The major petroleum companies are investing much more in exploration today, but their production rates are declining. For oil, the low-hanging fruit is gone. Does Krugman believe there is still excess production capacity for oil to use in building out renewable infrastructure, while still meeting the needs of the rest of the economy? If not, how will society maintain economic growth during the energy transition? If so, what part of the economy would need to contract in order to shift oil consumption to the renewables build-out, so as not to lead to increased overall use of climate-altering fossil fuels during the transition?”

Trucks are the basis of civilization. They can only run on diesel fuel, not on electricity, so what’s the point of building solar facilities?

When Trucks Stop Running, So Does Civilization. Energy and the Future of Transportation

Why trucks can’t be electrified

Soft costs are increasing

Soft costs are increasing. With a significant increase in the volume of solar projects in recent years, utilities must devote more time to processing applications that may be incomplete or coming in at a clip that staff can’t keep up with. Over time, that leads to longer application cycles, which builds to higher costs, which means fewer projects overall. Additional soft costs include engineering and the interconnection of solar installations, especially if storage is added (Merchant EF (2020) DOE-Backed Interconnection Project Takes Aim at Solar’s Pernicious “Soft Costs” U.S. solar companies face a tangle of state-by-state, utility-by-utility rules to interconnect projects — and batteries further complicate things. Greentechmedia.com).

Posted in Alternative Energy, CSP with thermal energy storage, Photovoltaic Solar, Recycle, Recycling, Solar, Solar EROI, Subsidies | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Dozens of reasons why solar power can’t replace fossil fuels

SMR / Gen 4 nuclear reactors less safe & create even more toxic waste

 

Preface. With climate change getting all the press and the coming energy crisis virtually no coverage, pro-nuclear forces are strongly pushing new nuclear plants as a way to lower CO2 emissions and deliver reliable power (but only baseload, they can’t balance wind and solar, only natural gas and hydroelectric do that, batteries don’t scale, too small to count).  But since transportation can’t be electrified, as shown in “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation, or manufacturing, fertilizer, the half million products made with petroleum and other showstoppers shown in “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy“, why would we poison the world with nuclear wastes for a million years? With peak oil in 2018, and nuclear, wind, solar and other electricity generating contraptions utterly dependent on fossil fuels for their construction, it’s time to bury nuclear wastes since future generations won’t have the energy or technology.

SMR / GEN IV plants would make nuclear proliferation an even bigger issue.

I’ve extracted bits of two papers below, but they are worth reading in full.

The summary of the Union of Concerned Scientists 148 page report here skims the surface of the many issues with advanced nuclear reactors.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Krall LM et al (2022) Nuclear waste from small modular reactors. PNAS. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111833119

Small modular reactors (SMRs), proposed as the future of nuclear energy, have purported cost and safety advantages over existing gigawatt-scale light water reactors (LWRs). However, remarkably few studies have assessed the implications of SMRs for the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. The low-, intermediate-, and high-level waste stream characterization presented here reveals that SMRs will produce more voluminous and chemically/physically reactive waste than LWRs, which will impact options for the management and disposal of this waste. Results reveal that water-, molten salt–, and sodium-cooled SMR designs will increase the volume of nuclear waste in need of management and disposal by factors of 2 to 30.

Volume is not the most important evaluation metric; rather, geologic repository performance is driven by the decay heat power and the (radio-)chemistry of spent nuclear fuel, for which SMRs provide no benefit. SMRs will not reduce the generation of geochemically mobile 129I, 99Tc, and 79Se fission products, which are important dose contributors for most repository designs. In addition, SMR spent fuel will contain relatively high concentrations of fissile nuclides, which will demand novel approaches to evaluating criticality during storage and disposal. Since waste stream properties are influenced by neutron leakage, a basic physical process that is enhanced in small reactor cores, SMRs will exacerbate the challenges of nuclear waste management and disposal.

In the case of sodium- and molten salt–cooled SMRs, the primary coolant will be chemically reactive (section 3.4.3), heated to temperatures >500 °C, and highly radioactive (2). Under these extreme conditions, reactor components can have a shorter lifetime than the standard PWR (60 y), and this will increase decommissioning LILW volumes. In addition, non-light water SMRs will introduce uncommon types of LILW in the form of neutron reflectors and chemically reactive coolant or moderator materials.

Sodium coolant can burn when exposed to air or water, and the Bill gates touted Natrium sodium-cooled fast reactor could experience uncontrollable power increases that could lead to rapid core melting. And although this reactor was to be up and running by 2027, now delayed until 2028, the Union of Concerned Scientists says that if federal regulators require necessary safety demonstrations it could take at least 20 years and billions of dollars in additional costs to commercialize these reactors. This report also find that Natrium reactors would likely be less uranium-efficient, not good when Peak Uranium looms (Negin 2021).

Molten salt reactor vessel lifetimes will be limited by the corrosive, high-temperature, and radioactive in-core environment. In particular, the chromium content of 316-type stainless steel that constitutes a PWR pressure vessel is susceptible to corrosion in halide salts (25). Nevertheless, some developers, such as ThorCon, plan to adopt this stainless steel rather than to qualify a more corrosion-resistant material for the reactor vessel.

Since SMRs will generate >10-fold more neutron-activated steel than the energy-equivalent LWR and will introduce the need to chemically treat radioactive sodium and molten salt coolants, they may significantly increase the costs and exposure risks associated with nuclear decommissioning.

Conclusion: This analysis of three distinct SMR designs shows that, relative to a gigawatt-scale PWR, these reactors will increase the energy-equivalent volumes of SNF, long-lived LILW, and short-lived LILW by factors of up to 5.5, 30, and 35, respectively. These findings stand in contrast to the waste reduction benefits that advocates have claimed for advanced nuclear technologies. More importantly, SMR waste streams will bear significant (radio-)chemical differences from those of existing reactors. Molten salt– and sodium-cooled SMRs will use highly corrosive and pyrophoric fuels and coolants that, following irradiation, will become highly radioactive. Relatively high concentrations of 239Pu and 235U in low–burnup SMR SNF will render recriticality a significant risk for these chemically unstable waste streams.

SMR waste streams that are susceptible to exothermic chemical reactions or nuclear criticality when in contact with water or other repository materials are unsuitable for direct geologic disposal. Hence, the large volumes of reactive SMR waste will need to be treated, conditioned, and appropriately packaged prior to geological disposal. These processes will introduce significant costs—and likely, radiation exposure and fissile material proliferation pathways—to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle and entail no apparent benefit for long-term safety.

Given that SMRs are incompatible with existing nuclear waste disposal technologies and concepts, future studies should address whether safe interim storage of reactive SMR waste streams is credible in the context of a continued delay in the development of a geologic repository in the United States.

Gardner T (2021) Advanced nuclear reactors no safer than conventional nuclear plants, says science group. Reuters.

A new generation of so-called “advanced” nuclear power reactors that Washington believes could help fight climate change often present greater proliferation risks than conventional nuclear power, a science advocacy group said on Thursday.

President Joe Biden, a Democrat, has made curbing climate change a priority and has supported research and development for advanced nuclear technologies.

The reactors are also popular with many Republicans. Last October, the month before Biden was elected, the U.S. Department of Energy, awarded $80 million each to TerraPower LLC and X-energy to build reactors it said would be operational in seven years.

Advanced reactors are generally far smaller than conventional reactors and are cooled with materials such as molten salt instead of with water. Backers say they are safer and some can use nuclear waste as fuel.

“The technologies are certainly different from current reactors, but it is not at all clear they are better,” said Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “In many cases, they are worse with regard to … safety, and the potential for severe accidents and potential nuclear proliferation.”

Nuclear reactors generate virtually emissions-free power which means conventional ones, at least, will play a role in efforts to decarbonize the economy by 2050, a goal of the Biden administration. But several of the 94 U.S. conventional nuclear plants are shutting due to high safety costs and competition from natural gas and wind and solar energy.

That has helped spark initial funding for a new generation of reactors. But fuel for many of those reactors would have to be enriched at a much higher rate than conventional fuel, meaning the fuel supply chain could be an attractive target for militants looking to create a crude nuclear weapon.

Also, nuclear waste from today’s reactors would have to be reprocessed to make fuel. That technique has not been practiced in the United States for decades because of proliferation and cost concerns. Other advanced reactors emit large amounts of radioactive gases, a potentially problematic waste stream.

Lyman said advanced nuclear development funds would be better spent on bolstering conventional nuclear plants from the risks of earthquakes and climate change, such as flooding. The report recommended that the Department of Energy suspend its advanced reactor demonstration program until the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires prototype testing before reactors can be licensed for commercial use.

References

Kramer D (2017) DOE’s advanced nuclear reactor program deemed ineffective. According to a new review, the Office of Nuclear Energy has shifted its priorities too often and overspent on facility upkeep. Physics Today.

Negin E (2021) Next-Gen nuclear reactor hype. There is little evidence fanciful new designs will be cheaper or safer. Scientific American.

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North Korea: what happened when the oil was cut off?

Preface. All nations will eventually run low and then out of petroleum, so it is worthwhile to see what happened to those countries where oil was scarce first to get glimpses of our own fate and perhaps try to mitigate the worst harms (i.e. rationing plans, converting industrial to organic farms, breeding horses and oxen, birth control, less immigration, and so on). 

North Korea in the news:

2022 North Koreans, already hungry, now short of cooking oil. Radio Free Asia.

Related Posts

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Pfeiffer, Dale Allen. 17 Nov 2003. Drawing Lessons from Experience; The Agricultural Crises in North Korea and Cuba. From the Wilderness.

November 17, 2003, 1100 PDT, (FTW) — So what happens to an industrialized country practicing modern agriculture when it loses its fossil fuel energy base? There are two countries where it has already happened: North Korea and Cuba. Both countries have little or no oil resources of their own, both relied upon the Soviet Union for their oil imports, and both experienced a swift and severe drop in their oil imports following the demise of the Soviet empire. While showing proper respect for the suffering of people in both countries, perhaps we can benefit from studying their examples.

DPRK (North Korea)—A Warning to the US

North Korea has always held less than half the population of South Korea. Prior to the Korean War, South Korea was a largely agrarian society, while the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea) was largely an industrial society. Following the war, the DPRK turned to fossil fuel subsidized agriculture to increase the production of their poor soils.

By 1990, DPRK estimated per capita energy use was 71 gigajoules per person, the equivalent of 12.3 barrels of crude oil. This was more than twice the per capita usage of China at that same time, or half the usage of Japan. DPRK has coal reserves estimated at from 1 billion to 10 billion tons, and developable hydroelectric potential estimated at 10-14 Gigawatts. But North Korea must depend on imports for all of their oil and natural gas. In 1990, DPRK imported 18.3 million barrels of oil from Russia, China and Iran.

An Energy Crisis

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian imports fell by 90%. By 1996, oil imports amounted to only 40 percent of the 1990 level. DPRK tried to look to China for the bulk of its oil needs. However, China sought to distance itself economically from DPRK by announcing that all commerce with DPRK would be settled in hard currency beginning in 1993. China also cut its shipments of “friendship grain” from 800,000 tons in 1993 to 300,000 tons in 1994.

On top of the loss of oil and natural gas imports, DPRK suffered a series of natural disasters in the mid-1990s that acted to further debilitate an already crippled system. The years 1995 and 1996 saw severe flooding that washed away vital topsoil, destroyed infrastructure, damaged and silted hydroelectric dams, and flooded coal mine shafts rendering them unproductive. In 1997, this flooding was followed by severe drought and a massive tsunami. Lack of energy resources prevented them from preparing for these disasters and hampered recovery.

DPRK also suffered from aging infrastructure. Much of their machinery and many of their industrial plants were ready for retirement by the 1990s. Because DPRK had defaulted on an enormous debt some years earlier, they had grave difficulty attracting the necessary foreign investment. The dissolution of the Soviet Union meant that DPRK could no longer obtain the spare parts and expertise to refurbish their infrastructure, leading to the failure of machinery, generators, turbines, transformers and transmission lines. DPRK entered into a vicious positive feedback loop, as failing infrastructure cut coal and hydroelectric production and diminished their ability to transport energy via power lines, truck and rail.

North Koreans turned to burning biomass, thus impacting their remaining forests. Deforestation led, in turn, to more flooding and increasing levels of soil erosion. Likewise, soils were depleted as plant matter was burned for heat, rather than being mulched and composted.

By 1996, road and freight transport were reduced to 40% of their 1990 levels. Iron and steel production were reduced to 36% of 1990 levels, and cement was reduced to 32%.6 This effect rippled out through the automotive, building and agricultural industries. The energy shortage also affected residential and commercial lighting, heating and cooking. This, in turn, led to loss of productivity and reduced quality of life, and adversely impacted public health. To this day, hospitals remain unheated in the winter, and lack electricity to run medical equipment. There is even insufficient energy to boil water for human consumption. By 1996, total commercial energy consumption throughout society fell by 51%.7

Perhaps in no other sector was the crisis felt more acutely than in agriculture. The energy crisis quickly spawned a food crisis that proved to be fatal. Modern, industrialized agriculture collapsed without fossil fuel inputs. It is estimated that over 3 million people have died as a result.8

the decline of agricultural production follows very closely the decline of petroleum consumption. Also, note that the rise in petroleum consumption after 1997 is not mirrored by the rise of agricultural production. Agriculture begins to make a comeback, but appears to enter another decline sometime around 1999. We do not have enough data at present to state conclusively the reasons why agricultural recovery has faltered. It is likely a combination of other factors, such as failure of farm equipment and infrastructure, adverse weather, and—quite likely—the failure of soils that have been depleted of minerals over the past decade. In any case, the above graph sums up the agricultural collapse of DPRK and hints at the suffering that collapse has entailed.

Fertilizer

Agriculture in DPRK requires approximately 700,000 tons of fertilizer per year.10 North Korea used to manufacture 80 to 90% of its own fertilizer, somewhere from 600,000 to 800,000 tons per year. Since 1995, DPRK has had difficulty producing even 100,000 tons per year. Aid and foreign purchases brought the total for 1999 to 160,000 tons, less than one quarter of the required amount.11

The DPRK fertilizer industry relies on coal as both an energy source and a feedstock. They require 1.5 to 2.0 million tons of coal per year to produce 700,000 tons of fertilizer.12 To obtain this coal, the fertilizer industry must compete with the steel industry, electricity generation, home heating and cooking needs, and a host of other consumers. Flooded mine shafts and broken down mining equipment have severely cut the coal supply. Likewise, delivery of this coal has been curtailed by the breakdown of railway infrastructure. Furthermore, transporting 2 million tons of coal by rail requires 5 billion kilowatt hours of electricity,13 while electricity supply is diminished because of lack of coal, silting of dams and infrastructure failure. So once again, we have another vicious positive feedback loop. Finally, infrastructure failure limits the ability to ship the fertilizer—1.5 to 2.5 million tons in bulk—from factories to farms.14

The result of this systemic failure is that agriculture in DPRK is operating with only 20 to 30% of the normal soil nutrient inputs.15 The reduction in fertilizer is the largest single contributor to reduced crop yields in DPRK. Tony Boys has pointed out that to run DPRK’s fertilizer factories at capacity would require the energy equivalent of at least 5 million barrels of oil, which represents one quarter of the oil imported into DPRK in recent years.16 However, even capacity production at this point would be inadequate. For the past decade, soils in the DPRK have been depleted of nutrients to the point that it would now require a massive soil building and soil conservation program to reverse the damage.

Diesel Fuel

Agriculture has been further impacted by the limited availability of diesel fuel. Diesel fuel is required to run the fleet of approximately 70,000 tractors, 8,000 tractor crawlers, and 60,000 small motors used on farms in DPRK.16 Diesel is also required for transporting produce to market, and for food processing equipment. It is estimated that in 1990, North Korean agriculture used 120,000 tons of diesel fuel. Since then, agricultural consumption has declined to 25,000 to 35,000 tons per year.17

Compounding the problem of diesel supply is the military allocation, which has not been cut proportionally with the drop in production. Only after the military takes its allocation can the other sectors of society—including agriculture, transportation and industry—divide the remainder. So, while total supplies of diesel have dropped by 60%, the agricultural share of the remained has fallen from 15% in 1990 to 10% currently.18 In other words, agriculture must make due with 10% of 40%, or 4% of the total diesel supply of 1990.

The result is an 80% reduction in the use of farm equipment.19 There is neither the fuel nor the spare parts available to keep farm machinery running. Observers in 1998 reported seeing tractors and other farm equipment lying unused and unusable while farmers struggled to work their fields by hand. The observers also reported seeing piles of harvested grain left on the fields for weeks, leading to post-harvest crop losses.20

Loss of mechanized power has required the substitution of human labor and draft animals. In turn, due to their greater workload, human laborers and draft animals require more food, putting more strain on an already insufficient diet. And, although a greater percentage of the population is engaged in farm labor, they have found it impossible to perform all of the operations previously carried out by machinery.21

Irrigation

Finally, the agricultural system has also been impacted by the decreased availability of electricity to power water pumps for irrigation and drainage. The annual amount of electricity necessary for irrigation throughout the nation stands at around 1.2 billion kilowatt hours (kWh). Adding to this another 460 million kWh to operate threshing and milling machines and other farm equipment brings the total up to 1.7 billion kWh per year.22 This is not including the electrical demand for lighting in homes and barns, or any other rural residential uses.

Currently, electricity for irrigation has declined by 300 million kWh, and electricity for other agricultural uses has declined by 110 million kWh. This brings the total electrical output currently available for agriculture down to 1.3 billion kWh; a shortfall of 400 million kWh from what is needed.

In reality, the situation for irrigation is worse than that hinted at by these figures. Irrigation is time sensitive—especially in the case of rice, which is DPRK’s major grain crop. Rice production is dependent upon carefully-timed flooding and draining. Rice is transplanted in May and harvested in late August and early September. After planting, the rice paddies must be flooded and remain in water until they are drained at harvest time. In DPRK, virtually all rice irrigation is managed with electrical pumps. Over half of the irrigational pumping for all agriculture takes place in May. Peak pumping power demand at this time is at least 900 MW. This represents over one-third of DPRK’s generating capacity.23

On top of this, the national power grid is fragmented, so that at some isolated points along the grid, irrigation demand can overtax generating capacity. This overtaxed system is also dilapidated, suffering the same disrepair as other energy infrastructure, both due to weather disasters, the age of the power stations and transmitters, and the lack of spare parts.

The records of three major pumping stations in DPRK showed that they suffered an average of 600 power outages per year, spending an average of 2300 hours per year without power. These power failures resulted in an enormous waste of water, translating into an irrigation shortfall of about one-quarter of the required amount of water.24

Home energy usage

Home energy usage is also severely impacted by the energy crisis, and—particularly in rural areas—home energy demand is in turn impacting agriculture. Rural residential areas have experienced a 50% drop in electricity consumption, resulting in a decline in basic services and quality of life. Homes in rural villages rarely have electrical power during the winter months.25 As has already been mentioned, hospitals and clinics are not excluded from this lack of power.

Rural households use coal for heating and cooking. The average rural household is estimated to require 2.6 tons of coal per year. The total rural coal requirement is 3.9 million tons annually. Currently, rural areas receive a little more than half of this requirement.26 On the average, rural coal use for cooking, heating and preparing animal feed has declined by 40%, down to 1.6 tons per year.27 Even public buildings such as schools and hospitals have limited coal supplies. Lacking enough coal even for the purpose of boiling water, the result is a reported increase in waterborne diseases.

To make up for the shortfall in coal, rural populations are increasingly turning to biomass for their heating and cooking energy needs. Herbage has been taken from competing uses such as animal fodder and compost, leading to further decreased food supplies. Biomass scavenging is also stressing all rural ecosystems from forests to croplands. Biomass harvesting reduces ground cover, disrupts habitats, and leads to increasing soil erosion and siltation.

Moreover, biomass foraging requires time and effort when other labor requirements are high and nutritional availability is low. This contributes to the positive feedback loop of calorie requirements versus food availability. It is estimated that 25% of the civilian workforce was employed in agriculture in the 1980s. By the mid-1990s, the ratio had grown to 36%.28 Furthermore, agricultural work has grown much more labor intensive. Farm labor is conservatively estimated at a minimum of 300 million person-hours per year. However, researchers point out that this number could easily be a factor of two or more higher.29 Workers are burning more calories, and so require more food. This is further complicated by greater reliance upon draft animals with their own food requirements. So necessary caloric intake has actually increased as food production has decreased, leading to less food availability per demand and increasing malnutrition.

Impacts to Health and Society

U.S. congressmen and others who have visited North Korea tell stories of people eating grass and bark. Other reports talk of soldiers who are nothing more than skin and bones. Throughout the country, there is starvation to rival the worst found in Africa. Chronic malnutrition has reached the point where many of the effects are irreversible.30

A study of children aged 6 months to 7 years found that 16% suffered from acute malnutrition—this is one of the highest rates of wasting in the world. 3% of the children suffered edema. 62% of the children suffered from chronic malnutrition. 61% were moderately or severely underweight. Chronic malnutrition can lead to irreversible stunting.31

Furthermore, malnutrition weakens the immune system, leaving the population even more vulnerable to contagions. And the lack of fuel for boiling water has led to a rise in water-borne diseases. Without electricity and coal, hospitals and clinics have become harbors of despair, where only the hopeless go for treatment.32

The situation in DPRK has rendered the country even more vulnerable to natural disasters. The country lacks the energy reserves to recover from the natural disasters of 1995-1997, much less withstand future ones. The infrastructure is fragmented and in disrepair. There is a very real threat that portions of the infrastructure, such as the electrical grid, may fail altogether. Complete electrical grid failure would result in a near-complete crop loss.33

So far, the people of DPRK have faced this crisis together. But continued deprivation may very well lead to rivalry, regional fragmentation, social breakdown and internecine fighting. Rural society is currently faring better than the urban population, and it is actually absorbing urban workers to help meet the rising labor demands of agriculture. But worsening conditions and widespread flight from the cities could lead to violent confrontations. It is even possible that rural instability could eventually result in civil war.

A Model for Disaster

The history of DPRK through the 1990s demonstrates how an energy crisis in an industrialized nation can lead to complete systemic breakdown. Of particular note is how the energy crisis sends ripples throughout the entire structure of society, and how various problems act to reinforce each other and drag the system further down. The most serious consequence for the people is found in the failure of modern agriculture and the resulting malnutrition. The collapse of infrastructure not only makes it more difficult to deal with the decline of agriculture and other immediate disasters, but also acts to amplify the crisis and leads to further social disintegration.

The various far-flung impacts and the numerous interlinking problems render the crisis nearly impossible to remedy. Even with a healthy economy, it is doubtful that North Korea could repair its degenerated society. Though the original problem may have been a lack of fuel, it cannot be corrected now by a simple increase in fuel supply. At this time, it will take an international effort to save the people of North Korea. And given the current political animosity between DPRK and the U.S., it is doubtful that this effort will take place.

The painful experiences of DPRK point out that dealing with an energy crisis is not just a matter of finding an alternative mode of transportation, an alternative energy source, or a return to organic agriculture. We are talking about the collapse of a complex system, in this case a social system that evolved gradually from a labor-intensive agrarian society to a fossil fuel-supported industrial/ technological society. It simply is not possible to step back to an agrarian society all at once, or to take a leap forward into some unknown high-tech society. Complex systems change gradually, bit by bit. Faced with immediate change, a complex system tends to collapse.

For a world facing the end of growing energy production, this means that the changes should have begun decades ago, giving time for a gradual transition. We had our warning back in the 1970s, when there might have been time to make a transition to a society independent of fossil fuels. Now it is simply too late. It is a waste of our time talking about a hydrogen future, or zero point energy, or a breakthrough in fusion. Even if we could find a technological quick fix, there is no time left to make the transition.

This is not to say that our future has to be bleak. We might be able to make a transition into a simpler society. In fact, if we can concentrate our efforts on easing the decline and on building an equitable and democratic social system, we might manage to provide a comfortable existence for ourselves and for the generations to come.

In part two of this article, the author will look at how Cuba has handled its own energy crisis, and will use this positive example to list some ways in which industrial civilization could handle the transition from fossil fuel dependent agriculture.

————-

1 Fuel and Famine: Rural Energy Crisis in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, William, James H., Von Hippel, David, Hayes, Peter. Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Policy Paper  46, 2000. http://repositories.cdlib.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi/article=1028&context=igcc

2 Demand and Supply of Electricity and Other Fuels in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Von Hippel, D.F., and Hayes, Peter. Nautilus Institute, 1997.

3 Op. Cit. See note 1.

4 Ibid.

5 Causes and Lessons of the “North Korean Food Crisis”, Boys, Tony. Ibaraka Christian University Junior College, 2000. http://www9.ocn.ne.jp/%7Easlan/dprke.pdf

6 Op. Cit. See note 1.

7 Ibid.

8 Op. Cit. See note 5.

9 Modelling future oil production, population and the economy, Laherrère, Jean. ASPO Second international workshop on oil & gas, Paris, May 26-27 2003. http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere/aspoParis.pdf

10 DPR Korea: Agricultural Recovery and Environmental Protection (AREP) Program, Identification of Investment Opportunities, Vol. 2: Working Papers 1-3. United Nations Development Programme And the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, 1998.

11 Ibid.

12 Op. Cit. See note 2.

13 Op. Cit. See note 1.

14 Ibid.

15 Ibid.

16 “…the energy cost of ammonia synthesis even in large modern plants averages over 40 GJ/tN, of which 60 percent is feedstock and 40 percent is process energy. It is unlikely that the DPRK fertilizer factories can produce ammonia for less than 50GJ/tN. Further, because ammonia requires special storage and application, most of it is converted to liquid or solid fertilizer (e.g. urea) for easy shipping and application. The conversion of ammonia to urea requires an additional 25 GJ/tN. Since one barrel of oil represents approximately 6GJ of energy, and one ton of nitrogen in urea requires 75 GJ (or more) to produce, to run the DPRK’s (three) fertilizer factories at capacity for a year would require:

(75 ÷ 6 = 12.5) × 400,000 = 5,000,000

…or at least 5 million barrels of oil, roughly a quarter of the amount of oil imported annually into the DPRK in recent years.”

Op. Cit. See note 5.

16 Op. Cit. See note 10.

17 Op. Cit. See note 2.

18 Op. Cit. See note 1.

19 Ibid.

20 Special Report: FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. FAO, Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture, World Food Programme, November 12, 1998. http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/economic/giews/english/alertes/1998/srdrk981.htm

21 Ibid.

22 Op. Cit. See note 2.

23 Op. Cit. See note 1.

24 Op. Cit. See note 10.

25 Op. Cit. See note 1.

26 Ibid.

27 Ibid.

28 Op Cit. See note 20.

29 Op. Cit. See note 1.

30 Op. Cit. See note 5.

31 Ibid.

32 Op. Cit. See note 1.

33 Ibid.

Posted in North Korea, Oil shock collapse | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

An extremist Republican gun industry will lead to a dark future in the U.S.

Source: ar15.com

Preface. This is a book review of Busse’s 2021 “Gunfight. My battle against the industry that radicalized America”.

I have always wondered why stricter gun laws haven’t been passed after horrifying mass shootings at schools and workplaces. This book explains why: gun industry makes a lot more money from sales AFTER a mass shooting. And also more money by drumming up fear and conspiracies. Sounds like the Republican party, huh.  Well, this book shows that the NRA and gun owners own the Republican party. The NRA was first to become a radicalized authoritarian “hate the libs” organization and taught and pushed the Republicans to be that way as well, with tens of millions of dollars in campaign contributions, getting their right-wing gun members to vote Republican and vote politicians out who didn’t support NRA policies. Of course, the NRA wasn’t the only factor in pushing Republicans into the extreme authoritarianism of today, it’s a direction they’ve been headed in for decades now (i.e. read these book review posts: Pat Robertson, FOX news, and Republican John Dean’s “Conservatives without Conscience”).

There is a section of the book on gun control which is worth reading because it is frightening to how rational gun regulation once was and how the gun industry / Republican Party have successfully stopped any reasonable regulations from being implemented.

Author Ryan Busse grew up hunting with his Dad and loved it so much he thought his ideal job would be selling guns. Eventually he ended up selling Kimber guns, which were once very high quality, very expensive well-crafted all metal pistols, though now are downgraded to having plastic for a higher profit margin. This book explains how the NRA and gun culture evolved from an insider. When Busse entered the NRA decades ago, it was mainly an organization that taught gun owners safety in using weapons, fine with gun control and against machine guns.

Here are some quotes from the book:

For years, the gun manufacturers and the NRA had used fear and conspiracy whenever gun sales sagged. By the middle of 2020, Donald Trump bucked the normal Republican gun downturn by using fear, riots, racial division, hate, protests, Twitter lies, politicization of science, a raging pandemic, intimidation, and guns to generate incredible sales that brought our industry roaring back to profitability. The ridiculous fear of a Black Democratic president had been replaced by the fear of radical leftists, marauding gangs, and even neighbors whose politics might be suspiciously progressive.”

In the overriding need for higher sales, the industry turned its back on safety instructors and hunters. They were marginalized and even given the pejorative nickname “Fudds” in a reference to the simpleton cartoon character Elmer Fudd. The lessons and warnings that Fudds believed in were now just impediments to higher sales.

Another reason the NRA was against any regulations on guns what that “if new safety requirements, smart-gun mandates, and distribution regulations were forced on us, guns would become more expensive. And more-expensive guns meant that fewer people could buy them.

I shudder to think what will happen in the future as declining energy leads to increased poverty and extreme desperation and fear. Residents and police departments have at least 20 million assault rifles. Americans own 393.3 million guns or more (20 million of them assault rifles). No other nation on earth comes even close to having that number of guns per capita.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Busse R (2021) Gunfight. My battle against the industry that radicalized America. Hachette Book Group.

Gun culture

The [right-wing] amateurs at a [George Floyd 2020 “black lives matter” protest were not from any trained unit. They had probably met one another through such booming social media sites as AR15.com, Funker Tactical, Demolition Ranch, and the Military Arms Channel.

[An aside: I went to ar15.com where dozens of gun makers advertise, various topics are discussed, and there’s even a music section with song lyrics like: our government hates you, hates you ‘cause you’re free, the government hates you (repeat 7 times), Our government hates us, right by right taken away by the total state machine, our governments hate us because we’re not afraid, wont’ be silenced, never lose our faith, your government hates you (repeat 7 times) HATE YOUR GOVERNMENT!]

For years prior to this protest, advertising executives in the gun industry had been encouraging the “tactical lifestyle” by spending millions of dollars with these websites and influencers, who, in turn, cultivated millions of followers.

[Tactical lifestyle revolves around admiring/purchasing tactical weapons designed for offensive or defensive use at relatively short range with relatively immediate consequences. They include weapons used for antitank assault, antiaircraft defense, battlefield support, aerial combat, or naval combat.]

The resulting feedback loop powered a culture that glorified weapons of war and encouraged followers to “own the libs.” The more extreme the posts, the more followers they gain, and the more guns we sold. Eventually, those followers began showing up at the capitol buildings in Virginia, Michigan, and Kentucky with loaded rifles.

I looked back at the armed men in disgust. Our country had arrived at the point where military guns were the symbols of an entire political movement. The NRA and the firearms companies had long ago harnessed this fear and hate as fuel, then dropped a match into the middle of it.

Each month, the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives reported National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) numbers for the previous month, and the gun industry dutifully studied and mined these data for indications about market trends. The NICS report for March 2020, when the COVID-19 virus shut down the world, contained five of the 10 highest days ever recorded. More guns were sold on March 20 than on any other day in the history of the United States. As most of the country came to grips with the uncertainty of a global pandemic, gun retailers made 201,308 sales that day.  March 2020 was the largest gun-sales month ever, with nearly 2.4 million guns sold, averaging nearly eighty thousand sales per day—almost double the previous March record.

An often-repeated truism about the industry: “The gun business is just like the booze business; it’s pretty good when times are good, and it’s fucking great when times are bad.

Pitching in to build the tools of political extremism was once part of my job. But slowly, then far too quickly, those political requirements meant that the firearms industry was not just another slice of the US economy. It and I were part of something much larger: a powerful political machine radicalizing our nation.

Growing Up with Guns

With an NRA membership came the American Rifleman magazine each month. I often leafed through the pages, reading the articles about interesting guns that I yearned to shoot. Through all my childhood years, the NRA magazines never featured angry politics or dramatic assertions about the impending demise of the republic. Instead, they devoted entire issues to celebrating the results of shooting competitions.

Some days I watched my dad sweat as he dug miles of irrigation ditches with a small shovel. By the time I was 12, I was helping stack hay in the hot sun. My brother Cory learned how to drive the truck through the field so that Dad and I could load the bales. The cattle were always escaping, which meant that we were always fixing fences. There were sick cows, dry water tanks, vaccinations—the work of the ranch never stopped. Because there was so much to do, we rarely took family vacations.

So my rifle became my personal respite from the work. That little Browning was my ticket to escapism. Whenever I got the chance, I wandered alone over the hills, the air sweet with sunflowers and kosha. I could hunt prairie dogs or fend off coiled rattlesnakes. I could bring home dinner or imagine I was a hero or a villain. My rifle was the conduit for it all.

Pheasant season started each November, and that’s when I borrowed an old Model 42 Winchester pump shotgun from Dad. Even before I could legally drive, I’d load the little pump .410 and my bird dog, Daisy, in an orange 1974 Chevy farm pickup and drive to a place on the ranch where pheasants were plentiful. I loved supplying my family with food that I harvested myself.

I was busy chasing success and didn’t give politics much consideration other than to know I was a hardworking, red-blooded, gunrunning American. In other words, I thought of myself as a Republican. Most of the people in my world told me that’s what I needed to be, anyway, and I complied. I also found that my “flyover-state” conservatism was a selling point for gun dealers. A right-wing joke here or there, and an occasional complaint about Bill Clinton or Portland liberals, made it easier for me to break the ice.

Gun control history

Yes, the Second Amendment protected basic gun ownership, but as firearms became more lethal, cheaper, and accessible, the laws that governed them changed to keep up too—at least for the most part. Our nation came to expect the legal evolution. When the military developed powerful weapons of war, Congress passed laws to protect average citizens and prohibit civilian ownership. When gangster murders ravaged the country in the 1930s, the public spoke up to demand laws limiting access to fully automatic weapons. When John Kennedy was murdered with a gun that was advertised on the back page of the NRA’s American Rifleman magazine and then ordered through the mail, Congress passed laws to require in-store retail licensing and gun transfers.

During testimony on that 1968 law, the NRA’s own vice president offered reasoned and sober congressional testimony: “We do not think that any sane American, who calls himself an American, can object to placing into this bill the instrument which killed the president of the United States.

But something new was rumbling below the surface. The evidence of tectonic shifts came in headlines about domestic, anti-government insurrections such as the standoffs at Waco and Ruby Ridge, and the bombing of the Alfred P. Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City. The 1980s and 1990s also saw the rise of a terrifying and inexplicable new kind of domestic terrorism: mass shootings. Like when a troubled man entered a store in Oregon and purchased a Chinese knockoff of the Russian Kalashnikov assault rifle. On January 17, 1989, Patrick Edward Purdy shoved that rifle into his Chevrolet station wagon and drove to Cleveland Elementary School in Stockton, California. As he parked near the school, the twenty-five-year-old lit his car on fire with a Molotov cocktail, loaded his AK-47 rifle, and walked into the crowded schoolyard playground, where he began shooting randomly at young children. He fired 106 rounds in less than two minutes. When he stopped, 5 children were dead, and 32 more were injured.

Police had arrested Purdy multiple times and knew that he supported White supremacy organizations. As news of his background leaked, there was a growing call for action. Days later, Time magazine summed up the mood of the nation: “The easy availability of weapons like this, which have no purpose other than killing human beings, can all too readily turn the delusions of sick gunmen into tragic nightmares.”

In October 1991, George Hennard, an unemployed 35-year-old former Merchant Marine, drove his truck through the window of a crowded Luby’s restaurant in Killeen, Texas. After the crash, Hennard waded into the diner with a Glock 17, a gun that came standard with 17-round high-capacity magazines. Hennard screamed his misogynistic screed as he targeted and shot mostly women. By the time his massacre was over, he had killed 23 people and injured 27.

As political pressure built up, an aspiring Texas politician watched the fallout with a keen eye. By the time George W. Bush became Texas governor a few years later, in 1995, he was already on the “less control” side of the gun issue.

Hupp had survived the 1991 Luby’s attack as she watched Hennard murder both her parents. Rather than fight against guns, she became an outspoken advocate for greater availability of guns. Hupp was an early adopter of what would come to be known as “the good guy with a gun” theory, which argues that if more people have guns, there is a higher likelihood that a bad guy will be shot by the good guys. Hupp ultimately convinced Governor Bush to expand the right of all Texas citizens to carry concealed guns.

A bold embrace of gun control was new for the Democratic Party. Governor Clinton used it artfully against the incumbent president. During their hard-fought 1992 campaign, Clinton reminded voters that George H. W. Bush had vetoed the Brady Bill and that he had repeatedly caved to pressure from the NRA. Clinton painted President Bush as soft on crime and beholden to special interests. The same public that created this pressure bought Clinton’s message, and he won in a rare defeat of an incumbent president. In the White House, Clinton kept his promise. After lengthy debate, he and a carefully crafted coalition of thought leaders and lawmakers beat back intense lobbying by the NRA, and the Brady Bill passed. Just one year after becoming president, Clinton had rallied the nation’s elected leaders, including several Republicans, to create a new gun policy in defiance of the NRA. With James Brady in a wheelchair by his side, Clinton signed the bill on November 30, 1993. This was a law that would keep thousands of people like Tolly Bolyard from buying a gun. It was a good thing for our country, yet inside the NRA and the gun industry some were already starting to envision a new reality that would force unimagined stress tests onto our political system.

It seemed clear to most reasonable political observers that the massive bill should include the Public Safety and Recreational Firearms Use Protection Act, more commonly known as the assault weapons ban. Senator Joe Biden of Delaware agreed. He sponsored the legislation and promised to play a central role in shepherding it through Congress. As the bill made its way through the Senate and House, lawmakers had to first agree on the definition of assault weapon. This quickly became a hot debate because many popular hunting rifles and shotguns shared the same semiautomatic fire-control system as AR-15s, AK-47s, and Tec-9s. Knowing that most Americans thought of hunting as relatively safe, wholesome, and harmless, organizations like the NRA used this social acceptability to frighten voters by claiming that Clinton was trying to ban hunting guns, adding that people inside his administration were so out of touch they couldn’t tell one gun from another.

Fully automatic firearms, including any military rifle that can be converted to shoot in a continuous mode of fire, had been strictly regulated since the days of Al Capone’s. In 1934 produced the National Firearms Act (NFA). In proof of the NFA’s efficacy, none of the guns used in the shootings of the 1980s and 1990s were fully automatic. Indeed, no mass shooting over the past 25 years has involved a fully automatic gun. Unlike fully automatic guns, the shooter of a semiauto gun must pull the trigger to fire a single bullet. The rapid, “zipper-spray” sound of weapons common in movies or A-Team episodes comes from fully automatic guns. A semiauto can be fired quickly, but only as fast as the shooter can pull its trigger.

The broader definition of an automatic machine gun was more complicated. It started with semiauto weapons but included add-on features such as folding stocks, detachable magazines, pistol grips, flash suppressors, and grenade launchers. The parameters in Congress’s final version of the law meant that a gun would be considered an assault weapon if it had two or more of these features. Congress also banned any magazine with more than ten rounds, therefore setting the definition of high capacity at eleven rounds or more.

The NRA and firearms enthusiasts fought like hell to weaken the bill. They made the case that the technical definition was so broad and would include so many guns that no reasonable person could define them. Those writing the legislation ultimately agreed, and more than 650 specific guns, including hundreds commonly used for hunting, were exempted from the final regulation. Under the new law, Cory’s rifle, a gun that held 17 rounds in a tubular magazine, remained legal. In a final nod to the powerful gun lobbyists, lawmakers also added a grandfather clause to the bill that exempted any guns or magazines sold before the law’s enactment. During the whole debate, as I cut my teeth in this industry, manufacturers, dealers, and consumers went into a frenzy. All the uncertainty and attention, plus a strong fear and distrust of Bill and Hillary Clinton, meant that consumers rushed to buy any guns that might be banned, and gun sales exploded.

The NRA learned important and unforgettable lessons in this narrow defeat, reactions to which were so loud that a sleeping giant in US politics stirred awake. The organization had fought hard, but not hard enough. It had chipped away at defectors, but it failed to demand 100% loyalty. It had used fear of loss, but not enough to convince elected officials that they would lose their seats to pissed-off and terrified single-issue voters. The NRA had criticized leaders who voted for the bill but did not demonize them. The organization linked the gun issue to other hot-button right-wing social issues, but not enough to sway the last few senators they needed. The NRA allowed debate on the merits of the law instead of using all-or-nothing arguments and wild conspiracy theories. It even allowed a beloved Republican former president to lobby against its cause. These were all important lessons for the organization to quickly correct. They were not errors the NRA would make again.

The loudest and most frequent argument revolved around the slippery slope: “If we give them this win, then pretty soon it will be all gun sales that are outlawed.” I must have heard that a thousand times, even back in 1999.

In the weeks after Columbine, Kimber enjoyed a short sales spike, but this subsided after it became clear that no one seemed to be moving on gun control—something that would become a pattern over the next two decades. Frustrated politicians who had spent careers working on gun control turned to mayors who represented citizens affected by gun violence. Mayors from places such as Miami, Chicago, and New Orleans had legal standing and knew how to use it. As they celebrated the success of the tobacco settlements, they re-crafted the arguments and then filed similar lawsuits against many of the nation’s largest firearms companies, alleging broad liabilities. Many people across the country, including most of us, believed that the lawsuits would provide the leverage to force the same sort of concessions agreed to by Big Tobacco, including a cessation of most paid marketing and mandates requiring new safety devices and graphic warning labels on gun packaging. We also had reason to expect massive compensation payments to governments for the violent impacts of guns.

By 2000, the list of entities that filed suits even expanded to include medium-sized cities such as Bridgeport, Connecticut, whose mayor, Joseph Ganim, went to court that January. Mayor Ganim made his case in a news conference on the same day he filed his $100 million suit: “We’re saying to the handgun manufacturers that from now on, you are responsible for the cost of handgun violence, not Bridgeport families.” Ganim also laid out the goals and tactics of the lawsuits, which focused on forcing gun companies to add safety modifications to their products by threatening court settlements.1 Miami mayor Alex Penelas also filed suit, and he laid the responsibility for dead children at the feet of our industry. “We will not allow the gun industry to escape accountability any longer,” Penelas said at a news conference. “They have killed our children by the dozens.”2 By they, Penelas meant us. Me. The lawsuits and corresponding press conferences sought to make advancements in two areas: improving safety devices on handguns and ensuring that companies controlled the distribution of guns to prohibit criminals from buying or stealing them.

When asked about the large monetary damage claims, Mayor Ganim explained that because the industry was in the habit of giving large contributions to the NRA to stop legislation, he believed it necessary to go after the industry’s money: “That’s the route that we’re going because [the NRA has] always very effectively, with big money, lobbied the legislature and kept laws from being passed.

The deal, negotiated with only one company and in secret, shielded Smith & Wesson from the threat of lawsuits in exchange for committing to mandatory trigger locks on all guns and the eventual development of “smart guns.” Smart guns was a term that meant new technology to ensure that only the owner of a gun could fire the weapon had to be integrated in the fire-control systems. Perhaps more importantly, the deal also enforced strict limits on the marketing and display of firearms to the general public, and it all had to happen within three years.

First up was Glock, which found success as the largest supplier of firearms to America’s police departments, and it had won most of that business by beating out Smith & Wesson over the previous decade. Glock executives knew that failure to comply could cost them their hard-won law-enforcement business. Indeed, the day after Shultz’s surprise press conference with Clinton, and under pressure from the White House, the mayors of Miami, Atlanta, and Detroit announced that their police departments would purchase only Smith & Wesson firearms for their officers. Within an hour after that announcement the news leaked that Glock was strongly considering the administration’s deal.

The NSSF announced that all other gun companies would join forces to push back against the secret deal that Smith & Wesson had negotiated in what Delfay called a “coordinated effort.” He relied on the strength and reputations of his organization’s members, which included Kimber and all other manufacturers. “We are confident that no other major manufacturers will desert this coordinated effort in favor of their own individual deal,

The NRA heaped on Smith & Wesson, Inc., a British-owned company, recently became the first to run up the white flag of surrender and run behind the Clinton-Gore lines, leaving its competitors in the U.S. firearms industry to carry on the fight for the Second Amendment.

Everyone who worked in any gun company knew that the most effective way to send or receive any message was through cash flow. We also knew that a boycott was the fastest way to interrupt Smith & Wesson’s supply of money.

I went to work calling and faxing dealers, imploring them to stop selling Smith & Wesson products and to send back the guns they already had. Because of the wartime camaraderie common even among dealers, none of this came off as a competitive play. There was an understood and shared common goal to just stay alive. I reinforced that message too: Smith & Wesson was out to hurt all companies that sold firearms. It did not matter if the message came from a competitor; it quickly resonated. And because of the dealer network I had developed, I enjoyed a direct line to accounts across the country and had hundreds of personal relationships.

In hundreds of subsequent news stories about the relationship between the gun industry and the NRA, there were many inferences to the fact that the NRA did the industry’s bidding. The stories might say things like “The NRA is just an arm of the gun industry.” In truth it is the opposite. The gun industry is an arm of the NRA, and the events of 2000 proved this to be true. Crushing Shultz and Smith & Wesson reminded all companies that the NRA ran the show.

The NRA’s control had far-reaching implications, including any advancements of gun-safety technology, for example. I saw it in our own leadership discussions too. “Why don’t we quietly work on a smart gun?” one of the members of our team asked as we considered possible new projects. “If we could figure out a design that really worked, we could make a huge splash!” “Yeah, that’s a decent idea,” Dwight responded before he winced and added, “but if the NRA ever found out they’d stop it”.

For years there had been a lot of controversy around the idea of developing a “smart gun” with electronic security to prevent children or other people from firing a gun they did not own. Resistance came from many angles, and they were all magnified by the NRA. Some believed that the electronics would fail, causing the gun to be useless. Some believed a conspiracy theory that electronics might provide the government with a way to disable guns. Some resisted because the guns might be more expensive. All gun-company executives could see the promise in perfecting the new technology, but we were all scared to death to try.

FEAR, Democrats, Republicans

The NRA also found three reasons for celebration. The first was the elevation of Bill and Hillary Clinton, who turned out to be fundraising megastars for the NRA. From that day forward, any mention of the Clintons and their easily understood threat to freedom and guns resulted in ready cash and new memberships. The NRA would go back to that well time and again, eventually elevating Hillary Rodham Clinton to her own special fundraising category.

The second reason was a realization that fear of impending elections or legislation could be used to explode gun sales and NRA memberships.

The third reason for celebration was language slipped into the legislation in an attempt to garner enough Republican votes for passage. At the insistence of the NRA, negotiators added a sunset provision to the text, mandating the expiration of all components of the ban if a future president did not reenact the bill with a simple signature. Including that provision seemed safe. Back then, most Americans broadly accepted it.

Donald Trump weighed in with support. As he said in 2000, “I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun.

This is when the NRA realized that it had to play a long game. Immediately after Clinton’s 1994 legislative win, it began forming a strategic coalition with the religious Right. From that day forward, guns would be intertwined with other divisive political issues such as abortion, which resulted in religiously loyal single-issue voters.

As the feelings of aggrievement took hold, most people in the gun business believed that we were fighting a war being waged by Democrats who were directly targeting our industry.

The NRA was using the anger in the gun business to make up its own definition of good and evil. Soon it succeeded and bound up the industry with the Republican Party: one huge, reliable block of moral activists. The immediate message was clear: Bill Clinton and the Democrats were evil. I was supposed to fight them. It was right to fight them.

We should have all seen the warning signs telling us how dangerous it would all become. Just months before I started at Kimber, Timothy McVeigh, a man who sealed his letters with “I Am the NRA” stickers, was so motivated by this fear and hatred that he blew up the federal building in Oklahoma City. Other early extremist events should have urged caution against taking this rhetoric too far. David Koresh and the Branch Davidians, the Freeman in Montana, and the Unabomber—they were all motivated by guns and irrational fears.

The day that Clinton put his signature on the assault weapons ban, things got much tougher. Dozens of distributors and hundreds of dealers went bankrupt or just closed up shop. Between 1994 and 2000, licensed firearms dealers in the United States dropped by almost two-thirds, from a high of more than 215,000 to fewer than 78,000.

Prior to the 1990s, US gun consumers usually purchased rifles and shotguns. But our country’s appetite for handguns had grown over the previous decade. Handgun sales were even beginning to eclipse rifle and shotgun sales. This trend accelerated in the coming decade as the act of carrying concealed firearms became legal in almost every state.

We often called guns like Glocks “guns for dummies” because they had no safety and could be operated easily by people who knew nothing about guns. Numerous safety tests confirmed the “dummy” label. In those tests people who knew nothing about guns usually figured out on their own how to fire pistols like Glocks in just a few seconds, whereas figuring out a gun like the 1911, which has two external safeties, might take them a minute or two. Conversely, we took pride in those who believed the 1911 was the “expert’s pistol.” Many serious shooters agreed, as evidenced by the fact that select SWAT teams and military Special Forces units still carried their old 1911s. For the most part, those highly trained users understood that a defensive gun did not need more than a few rounds. The 1911 found a cult following, and people paid hundreds to add new, modern features to their existing old guns, much like upgrading a classic car.

I knew the Kimber company needed a lot of guns to raffle and auction as the main draw of the banquets. The NRA could be, in effect, one of Kimber’s largest dealers, and it would eventually host nearly 1,200 banquets across the country each year. Every one of those banquets needed dozens of guns for fundraising. Over the next 20 years, Kimber developed and sold tens of thousands of our new 1911s through those banquets, making the NRA one of Kimber’s most reliable sales outlets. We perfected the customization theme, selling well more than 200 different variations of the 1911, many of which retailed for more than $2,000 apiece. Soon the monthly demand for our 1911s surpassed the annual sales for our high-end rifles.

Whereas most business in the firearms industry was done by extending credit to dealers and allowing them to pay for their products in sixty to ninety days, Denis required Kimber to expect cash on delivery (COD) for our shipments to many of our dealers.

The early reports of the shooting at Columbine High School indicated that two students had used a variety of guns and explosives to kill thirteen and wound twenty-four more. Not long after the entire nation began learning about the massacre in Columbine, my phone rang. “You watching this?” Sara said, her voice trembling. “Those poor kids! The gun industry is OK with this shit?” I must have stammered for a few awkward moments before she added, “Are you OK with this, Ryan?

Like those at the other gun companies, we were conditioned to convert news of events like the Columbine massacre into calculations about how they would affect our work of selling guns.

“Don’t worry. You don’t have to be embarrassed about selling a Kimber,” I’d say while recruiting salespeople. “Ours are not guns that will end up in BATF criminal traces.… We don’t make that kind of stuff and never will as long as I’m here.

“These dealers think there might be a sales spike,” one of my salesmen told me after I stuck my head into his office. Dealers were parroting three years of NRA talking points: “The Democrats are going to use this to jam more gun-control shit down our throats. So they’re doubling and tripling their orders!

Hammer became a legendary national political figure who, among other accomplishments, would be almost single-handedly responsible for passage of Florida’s controversial “stand your ground law,” which allows any person “the right to stand his or her ground and use or threaten to use… deadly force if he or she reasonably believes that using or threatening to use such forces is necessary. Hammer was also influential in the passage of many laws across the country that allowed Americans to carry concealed firearms. In her speech at the Dallas NRA convention in 1996, Hammer seemed to tap into a new, long-lasting source of fear and hatred that could keep the pressure cooker of a divided America just one tick below maximum. Apparently, she also knew that it was important to divert attention from reality. She made no mention of the White mass murderers Hinckley, Purdy, Ferri, and Hennard. She made no mention of the White supremacy and misogynist hate that motivated them—even back in 1996. She made no mention of the racist gun shows and militia meetings where Timothy McVeigh had been “hanging out” as he drew up plans to blow up 168 innocent people in Oklahoma City. The gun industry did its best to avoid letting its members have personal epiphanies like that. People like me were supposed to put self-reflection aside and wait this out.

The gun industry doesn’t own the NRA – the NRA owns the gun industry

Manufacturers even allowed NRA officials to name their products so that the organization had a vested interest in their success. And the NRA magazines mailed to millions of members every month, including American Rifleman and American Hunter, usually got the first crack at all new-product announcements.

There were dozens of other advertising venues, but most companies spent an inordinate amount of advertising budgets with the NRA. Kimber was no exception. Eventually, we wrote huge checks every year to advertise with the organization. This sort of industry spending got so out of control that the NRA had to invent ways to allocate the funds. Free videos, web ads, banquet sponsorships, then NRATV. Most of the advertising made no real business sense, but the last thing anyone wanted was to be marched to the Shultz gallows.

Just like the eventual Republican devotion to Donald Trump, the NRA’s grip on our industry was nearly total. Whenever there was an opportunity for a gun company or executive to comment about some controversy or policy, we all knew to run it by the NRA in advance. In future years, when the New York legislature considered gun-related bills, Kimber and all other companies parroted the talking points from the NRA, and we stuck to those messages because we knew not to upset anyone in far-off Fairfax, Virginia. Most executives never even spoke to politicians without the NRA’s involvement. If you wanted to stay employed, you were expected to toe these lines.

The NRA also expected us to help drum up membership. We firearms companies sold millions of guns each year, and the NRA knew damn well that each sale meant a potential new NRA member. Almost all gun companies happily sought more approval by adding NRA membership cards inside their packaging. Kimber placed the card in our boxes, like a Hallmark card tucked inside a birthday present. Many companies went even further in displaying devotion and paid for free NRA memberships with the purchase of a new gun.

I had, in fact, helped organize a boycott of Smith & Wesson. I had sent multiple emails directing my staff to help. I sent faxes filled with explicit requests. I had initiated dozens of conversations with dealers. To make matters worse, I did it all without much consideration of any antitrust laws.

What we did was apply another future tactic of modern politics, developed by the NRA and soon to be adopted by the political Right. That tactic was to summon legions of gun companies together to form a single, massive, unstoppable army dedicated to protecting the center of power that sold our guns and, more importantly, to build a culture that made those guns sacred. Every joke, every sideways glance, every comment about “fucking Democrats” kept all soldiers constantly at the ready.

Years later, troll armies on the Right and enforcers in the Trump White House, like campaign manager Paul Manafort and fixer Michael Cohen, acted under the same unwritten enforcement rules. The directions came to all of us in quiet signals that we were trained to look for, from racist dog whistles to the subtle winks that empower White supremacists (just like Trump’s directive to the White nationalist group the Proud Boys, during his 2020 debate with Joe Biden, to “stand back, stand by”). Whether the directive was written or not, everyone knew that we were called to protect our pro-gun leaders and attack everyone else.

I helped prove out a system where any criticism is met with insults, boycotts, trolling, and even the destruction of livelihoods. I helped the NRA perfect politics that bled into the Republican Party and conservative politics,

In the lead-up to the 2000 election, Wayne LaPierre cohosted a black-tie dinner that raised nearly $20 million to help elect Texas governor George W. Bush to the presidency, placing the NRA on the highest rungs of Republican politics.

We helped the NRA develop a small but forceful demographic of single-issue voters who voted only for guns, thus wielding incredible influence in key races. Grover Norquist, the outspoken conservative anti-tax warrior, confirmed the strategy in 2000. Our industry was almost exclusively populated with people who were in it because they simply loved guns. Even guys at the NRA had stories about accidental discharges in their headquarters. Loving guns was the only common requirement for entry into the tight group of people who were fueling change in America. “It’s the same for dealers,” the other executives commented. “Most of them are not businesspeople. They’re just guys who really love guns.

An almost unnatural affinity for firearms even reduced the pressure on gun companies to provide high compensation packages. “We all know we could probably make more money elsewhere,” someone would say. “But we work here because we love being in the gun business. The same common love of guns is how the NRA cultivated a few million gun customers to become single-issue voters. The organization was learning that one thing was more powerful than this deep, visceral love of guns: the threat of having those guns taken away.

That, the NRA knows, is far more powerful than common sense, the safety of others, or even economic self-interest.  The NRA had twisted the old Republican principles into a new religious fervor that was toxic to any environmental policy. The NRA even made room for dozens of powerful politicians and a national Republican Party platform plank that specifically attacked public lands.  In an attempt to prevent more people from seeing that they were actually harming public land, they formed groups like the NRA Hunters’ Leadership Forum and continued to make unsubstantiated claims such as “The NRA does more for hunters than any other organization, hands down.”

 

 

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An Amazonian community in balance with nature

At a gathering by the headwaters of the Amônia River in July 2021, members of the Apiwtxa and Sawawo communities discussed the need to protect the Amazon forest from outsiders who covet its riches. Credit: André Dib

Preface. Now that limits to growth and energy have arrived, it’s past time to invent a sustainable society living in balance with nature without fossil fuels and electricity.  The Dawn of Everything showed us such civilizations from the past. Today such a society that’s been recently invented is living in the Amazon Basin, a hopeful inspiration for the rest of us.  I recommend you read this Scientific American article on the internet to see the lovely photos of this community and map of where they are.  But it is behind a paywall for many of you, so here it is.

Dawn of Everything Posts

Comandulli CS (2022) Designing for Life. An Indigenous Community in the Amazon basin is showing the world how to live with, rather than off, nature. Scientific American.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/this-amazonian-indigenous-group-has-lessons-in-sustainable-living-for-all-of-us/

This Amazonian Indigenous Group Has Lessons in Sustainable Living for All of Us. The Apiwtxa community has designed a way to live with, rather than off, nature

Last July a premonition persuaded the Ashaninka Indigenous people of the western Amazon basin to undertake a great traditional expedition. Divining that this could be their last chance to enjoy peace and tranquility, more than 200 Ashaninka from the Sawawo and Apiwtxa villages alongside the Amônia River in Peru and Brazil, respectively, boated upstream to pristine headwaters deep in the forest. It was the dry season, when the river waters were clear and safe for the children to splash in and the night sky starry for the spirit to soar in. There, in the manner of their ancestors, the Ashaninka spent a week camping, hunting, fishing, sharing stories, and imbibing all the joy, beauty and serenity they could.

A month later the Ashaninka got the news they had been dreading—a road-building project they’d heard about months earlier was moving forward. Logging companies had moved heavy equipment from mainland Peru to a village at the Amazon forest’s edge to cut an illegal road through to the Amônia. Once the road reached the river, loggers would use the waterway to penetrate the rain forest and fell mahogany, cedar and other trees. The birds and animals the workers didn’t shoot for food would be scared away by the screech of chain saws. Indigenous peoples would face lethal danger both from violent encounters with the newcomers as well as from casual interactions, which would spread germs to which forest peoples often have little immunity. Drug traffickers would clear swaths of forest, establish coca plantations and try to recruit local youths as drug couriers. The road would bring, in a word, devastation.

This borderland between Brazil and Peru, where the lowland Amazon rain forest slopes gently toward the Andes foothills, is rich with biological and cultural diversity. It is home to the jaguar (Panthera onca) and the woolly monkey (genus Lagothrix), as well as to several Indigenous groups. Its protected landscapes include two national parks, two reserves for Indigenous people in voluntary isolation and more than 26 Indigenous territories. The nearest large town, Pucallpa in Peru, is more than 200 kilometers away over dense forest as the macaw flies and is almost unreachable; the tiny town of Marechal Thaumaturgo on the Amônia River in Brazil can, however, be accessed by chartered flight from Cruzeiro do Sul, the second-largest city in Acre state, and is a three-hour boat ride downstream of Apiwtxa.

Remote as it is, the region has been threatened for centuries by colonizers who sought its riches. In response, the Ashaninka joined Indigenous alliances to fight off the invaders or fled into ever deeper forests to escape them. In the 1980s, however, technological advances made it far quicker and easier for outsiders to cut through the jungle for logging, ranching, industrial agriculture, and drug production and trafficking.

A logging road from Peru  cut through the Amazon forest to reach the Amônia River in August 2021. Fearing an assault on the region’s biodiversity, Ashaninka Indigenous peoples and their allies halted the loggers’ advance with their bodies. They subsequently established a surveillance outpost by the illegal road to guard against further attempts by outsiders to extract the region’s natural wealth. Credit: André Dib

The Apiwtxa Ashaninka adapted, responding to the intensified assaults with increasingly sophisticated and multifaceted resistance tactics, which included seeking allies from both Indigenous and mainstream society. Most significantly, they devised a strategy for the community’s long-term survival. The Apiwtxa designed and achieved a sustainable, enjoyable and largely self-sufficient way of life, maintained and protected by cultural empowerment, Indigenous spirituality and resistance to invasions from the outside world. “We live in the Amazon,” said Apiwtxa chief Antônio Piyãko at the July gathering. “If we do not look after it, it will vanish. We have the right to keep looking after this land and prevent it from being invaded and destroyed by people who do not belong here.”

The Apiwtxa, along with members of regional nongovernmental organizations, had been working with the Sawawo people, first in the line of invasion, to prepare to resist the loggers. When they learned that the loggers had finally arrived, members of Sawawo’s vigilance committee traveled up the Amônia in their boats. Two and a half hours later they came upon two tractors. Laden with people, food, fuel and equipment for founding a logging base, the vehicles had crossed the river into Ashaninka territory in Peru. The defenders took pictures of the destruction, interviewed the loggers and returned to their village, where they had Internet access. They reported the intrusion to Peruvian authorities through a local Indigenous organization, asking that an environment official visit to survey the damage. They also shared the evidence with the Apiwtxa and other allies and set up camp at the invasion spot, waiting for reinforcements.

The Apiwtxa way of living—enjoying a canoe ride on the Amônia River, weaving palm leaves into the roof of a hut or preparing a bird for a meal —is predicated on sustainability and self-sufficiency. It involves defending the territory from assaults when necessary as well as implementing norms for protecting biodiversity.

Apiwtxa members showed up soon after, by boat, and nine days later supporters from three regional NGOs arrived on foot. That evening they saw two more tractors coming with supplies. More than 20 people, led by a woman carrying her baby, swiftly placed themselves in front of the tractors, preventing the loggers from crossing the Amônia. The Ashaninka, who have a reputation of being fierce warriors, promptly confiscated the keys from the stunned drivers.

The official arrived the next day. He cursorily scanned the environmental damage and demanded the tractor keys, which the Ashaninka handed over. Sawawo’s people nonetheless maintained a presence in the camp for months to make sure that the tractors were not used for a fresh assault on the region, and the NGO allies alerted the press to the intrusion.

Eventually the logging companies left the territory. Determined but nonviolent Indigenous resistance, coupled with pressure from global media, had temporarily unnerved them. In November 2021, however, when Apiwtxa village was hosting a gathering of local Indigenous groups to discuss the increasing threats posed by loggers and drug traffickers, the Peruvian government authorized the tractors’ retrieval. One of the companies has since resumed its efforts to enter the region, using a tried-and-true tactic—divide and conquer—seeking to convince individual Indigenous leaders to sign logging contracts with them. The struggle the Ashaninka have been waging for decades continues.

CONTEMPORARY, NOT MODERN

Since 1992, when a community of Ashaninka people obtained legal title to some 870 square kilometers of partially degraded forest along the Amônia River, they have achieved an astonishing transformation. Once a people undergoing flight, fight or subjugation ever since European missionaries and colonizers arrived in their homeland three centuries ago, the 1,000-odd residents of Apiwtxa village in the Kampa do Rio Amônia Indigenous Land have become an autonomous, self-assured and largely self-sufficient community. They have regenerated the forest, which had been damaged by logging and cattle ranching, restored endangered species, enhanced food security through hunting, gathering, agroforestry and shifting cultivation, and otherwise shaped a way of life they hope will ensure the continuation of their community and principles. These achievements, as well as their support for neighboring communities, have earned them several awards, including the United Nation’s Equator Prize in 2017.

The Apiwtxa designs for living, drawn from shamanic visions and informed by interactions with the non-Indigenous world, are predicated on the protection and nurturing of all life in their territory. The Ashaninka hold that their well-being depends on the maintenance of the Amazon’s incredible biodiversity. This awareness comes largely from their intimate relationships with the plants, animals, celestial bodies and other elements of their landscape, which they regard as their close relatives. These beings, especially the plant ayahuasca (Banisteriopsis caapi), which the Ashaninka call kamarãpi, help treat their diseases and guide their decisions through visions. “Our life is an enchantment,” shaman Moisés Piyãko said to me in July 2015. “What we live in Apiwtxa is all lived beforehand in the world of kamarãpi.”

Autonomy, a key Apiwtxa principle, requires food and economic self-sufficiency. A child fetches corn from a multicropped field (top). A cooperative shop sells handicrafts such as a macaw-feather headdress (middle); such items help the community earn an income without depleting local resources. Dora Piyãko, the cooperative’s president, displays a sling for carrying a baby (bottom). Credit: André Dib

As architects of their future rather than passive victims of circumstance, the Apiwtxa are living a concept outlined by development scholar Arturo Escobar in Designs for the Pluriverse (2018). Extending design theory into the cultural and political realm, Escobar described social design as a means by which traditional and Indigenous peoples engender innovative solutions to contemporary challenges. In his view, moments of social breakdown, when “the habitual mode of being in the world is interrupted,” are important for new ways of living to emerge. Securing a territory, a safe space for the design to flourish, is essential, Escobar adds. Through the struggle to safeguard their land, the Apiwtxa have realized this ideal: the community has fought against social and ecological disintegration to take control of its own fate and that of the creatures they live with and depend on.

I first arrived in Apiwtxa village in 2015 to conduct research for a doctoral degree in anthropology. Getting there required four sets of clearances—from my university, two Brazilian agencies and the Apiwtxa themselves—a commercial flight to Cruzeiro do Sul, a chartered flight to Marechal Thaumaturgo and then a three-hour boat ride. Within days of arrival, I realized that it was no easy task to study the Ashaninka. A centuries-long history of dispossession and exploitation by non-Indigenous people has made them wary of outsiders. It was only after some months of their observing me that I was allowed to stay. My willingness to collaborate with their projects, my empathy with their principles, and my deep respect for their courage and wisdom all guided their decision. I ended up living and working with the Ashaninka for two and a half years. It was a transformative experience.

I had worked with various Indigenous groups since the early 2000s, as a researcher, consultant on the environmental impact of development projects, and later as an employee with FUNAI, Brazil’s National Foundation for Indigenous Affairs. I was well aware of the devastation that the Global North’s hunger for oil, minerals, timber and other resources wreaked on forest peoples. I found the Ashaninka remarkable, however, for their penetrating analysis of the assaults they faced, as well as the farsightedness with which they devised responses to them. They were not “modern,” in that they did not seek a state of development modeled on a Western ideal of progress and growth that many aspire to but only few can reach. Instead they were exceptionally “contemporary,” in the sense of finding their own solutions to present-day problems. As philosopher, anthropologist and sociologist Bruno Latour commented, “Knowing how to become a contemporary, that is, of one’s own time, is the most difficult thing there is.” And I was awed and inspired by the Apiwtxa Ashaninka’s ingenuity and resilience.

“We, the Ashaninka, have been massacred by loggers; we have been massacred by rubber dealers; we have been massacred by colonizers…. We were taken as a workforce to serve patrons who told us to cut down the forest and hunt the animals for them so they could live well; we were massacred by the missions who told us that we knew nothing,” Benki Piyãko, an Ashaninka leader, told me. “But then we decided to give a different response: we began to study.”

The first “student,” as Benki tells it, was his grandfather, Samuel Piyãko, who sought to understand the economic imperatives that drove outsiders to exploit nature and Indigenous peoples. Born in Peru, he was a shaman who worked on cotton plantations in conditions of debt peonage, a system by which Indigenous peoples were forced to work for a pittance, purchasing their necessities from their oppressors at extortionate prices, rendering them permanently indebted. Sometime in the 1930s Samuel escaped the plantations and trekked down the Andes slopes to the rain forest in Brazil. There, too, he encountered colonizers who were entering the forest via the great Amazonian rivers.

“I do not have anywhere to escape,” Samuel thought, according to Benki. “I will have to adapt here. I will stay here and look with my spirit to see how I will be able to remain connected” to other people and beings. Samuel’s descendants say he used his shamanic powers to envision the transformation his people have since achieved. “What is happening here is my grandfather’s dream,” Moisés, Benki’s brother, said. “Here we are, his grandchildren, accomplishing what he thought would guarantee the continuity of the people and build the best path for us all.”

Samuel came to be regarded as a pinkatsari, or leader, whose sheltering presence induced other Ashaninka families to move to the area. Later, when one of his sons, Antônio, wanted to marry a non-Indigenous, Portuguese-speaking woman from a family of rubber tappers and cattle ranchers, Samuel assented, declaring that she would become an ally. He was right. Her own family initially opposed the marriage, so Francisca Oliveira da Silva, who came to be known as Dona Piti, came to live with her in-laws, bringing along her knowledge of the outside world.

Starting in the 1960s, many of the Ashaninka began working for logging bosses, who used their lack of knowledge about the outside world to exploit them—paying with a box of matches, for example, for a mahogany tree. Piti explained to them the relative values of such goods to traders, helping them understand how they were being cheated in every transaction. Seeking to break the cycle of exploitation and instead trade on their own terms, the community founded a cooperative, a collectively controlled trading enterprise, in the 1980s. “We were being fooled,” recalled Bebito Piyãko, one of Piti and Antônio’s children. “The cooperative was a way, we thought, to break this dependency.” The Ayõpare Cooperative enabled community members to trade what they produced for credit, with which they could get goods from a village shop.

At this time, industrial logging was arriving in the region, creating destruction of a kind the Ashaninka had never encountered before. In the old days, it might take days to fell a single mahogany tree with an axe; now it took minutes. Swaths of forest fell to chain saws. Tapirs and other game animals fled. Workers brought in from faraway towns invaded Ashaninka celebrations, spreading disease and harassing women. Similar assaults across the Amazon basin sparked a vigorous and prolonged social movement that resulted in Brazil adopting a progressive new constitution in 1988. It recognized the rights of Indigenous peoples to use the natural resources of their territories in traditional ways. With the new constitution in place, the Ashaninka sought FUNAI’s help to secure territorial rights to the surrounding forest.

They were besieged by death threats from loggers and cattle ranchers. Ferrying the necessary documents between Apiwtxa and Cruzeiro do Sul required braving ambushes. Nevertheless, Piti, Antônio and their oldest children, Moisés and Francisco, pressed Brazilian authorities for the right to control how their locale’s resources should be used. No one was killed, but by the time the land title came through many Ashaninka families had left out of fear. That Samuel died during the struggle, of old age, no doubt increased their sense of insecurity.

STRENGTH IN UNITY

Recognizing that unity and cooperation were key to survival, the remaining Ashaninka families, led by Antônio, Piti and others, embarked on a process of collective planning to determine their future. What kind of life did they want to live and how would they achieve it? They surveyed their territory and their experiences, looking “inside us at the worst of all the bad moments we had faced, so that we could reflect on the changes we had to make,” Benki recalled. Designing their future, devising a set of rules to maintain their cohesive social structure, and developing a management plan to ensure adequate, enduring resources would take three years of exploration and discussion.

During this period the roughly 200 people formed the Apiwtxa Association,n to represent their interests to civil society and the Brazilian state. And at its end, they began moving the community to the northernmost extremity of their territory, a remote location they deemed strategic: conducive to fending off intruders and to maintaining their social integrity and governance system. Although the Ashaninka traditionally lived as nuclear families scattered across the landscape, they founded a compact village that would be easier to protect, also naming it Apiwtxa.

Roughly translated as “union,” the word apiwtxa signifies the placing of collective interests above individual ones and is one of the community’s key governance principles. The villagers consistently apply it in their struggles, seeking to achieve consensus through gatherings and discussions that can take a single shift or last for days—if that is what it takes for everyone to agree—before embarking on a course of action. These meetings help the Apiwtxa devise ways to overcome threats emanating from outside their territory and plan future projects.

The Apiwtxa constructed the new village by the Amônia River, on two former cattle pastures of around 40 hectares. They reforested the area, mostly with indigenous species, which they nurtured in nurseries. They built the huts in the traditional manner—close to the river, on raised platforms to keep out snakes, and mostly without walls to let in the breeze. Around their homes they planted fruit, palm and timber trees, and medicinal plants. They established banana groves and multicropped fields with corn, manioc and cotton, dug ponds to breed fish and turtles to replenish the fishing resources in the Amônia River, and set up no-go areas, which shifted periodically, to prevent overhunting. And they established a school of their own design, teaching children in the Ashaninka language for the first four years and imparting both traditional skills such as weaving and mainstream knowledge such as arithmetic. A few of the young people went away to attend university and study the outside world—in particular, its economic and political systems—before returning with their skills to the Apiwtxa.

At Apiwtxa, the day revolves around living—bathing in the river, washing clothes, tending crops, fishing, cooking, repairing huts and implements, playing. By the time it draws to a close, everyone is tired. The villagers eat dinner just before sunset, after which the children might enjoy a storytelling session before going to bed. Some of the women spin cotton; the spiritual leaders, mostly men, sit under starry skies to chew coca leaves in silent communion. Among the Ashaninka, a great deal of communication happens without speech, through subtle shifts in expression and posture. We would go to sleep by 7 or 8 P.M., waking up early to birdsong and other forest sounds, feeling deeply rested.

The regulations that the Apiwtxa decided on in the 1990s have since developed into a complex system of governance. The community’s leaders, several of whom are Samuel’s close relatives, comprise shamans, warriors and hunters who deal with internal issues, alongside people with formal education or experience in building social movements, who serve as interlocutors with the outside world. With such a diversity of skills, the Apiwtxa have also become adept at raising funds from governmental and nongovernmental agencies for projects, such as reforestation.

A second key principle of Ashaninka design is autonomy—independence from systems of oppression and the freedom to determine how to live in their territory. “Not be led by others” is essential, Francisco declared. Autonomy requires a large measure of self-sufficiency, to which end the Apiwtxa have enhanced their food sovereignty and implemented economic and trading practices that minimally impact the environment. The ancient ayõpare system of exchange, which goes beyond material exchanges to the creation and nurturing of relationships of mutual support and respect, guides all transactions within and without the community. I experienced it while living there: someone might ask me for, say, batteries, and a few days or months later I would find a bunch of fruit or some other gift on my doorstep.

One manifestation of this system is the Ayõpare Cooperative, which trades only products that do not deplete nature and only with outsiders who support Apiwtxa’s objectives. “The forest is our wealth,” as Moisés explained. “Our project is to sustain this wealth.” The cooperative’s most successful products are handicrafts; they help to maintain traditions and protect the forest while providing relative economic autonomy. The cooperative also enables the Apiwtxa to communicate its principles— by, for example, selling native seeds for reforesting other parts of the Amazon.

Reducing physical threats from the outside world enhances autonomy as well. To this end, the Apiwtxa have tried to create a physical and cultural “buffer zone” around their territory by helping neighboring Indigenous communities to also bolster their traditions and protect biodiversity. Prolonged subjugation by mainstream society has led several Ashaninka groups, especially those in Peru, to adopt outsiders’ unsustainable modes of living or succumb to market pressures to sell timber or other forest resources, Benki and Moisés observed. Changing this state of affairs requires restoring ancestral ways of interacting with nature, the shamans believe. Indeed, Apiwtxa leaders hold that this ancestral knowledge is a vital resource for all of humankind. “It is not enough to only work on our land,” Benki said, “because our land is only a small piece of this big world that is being destroyed.”

The Ashaninka reject the idea that humankind is separate from nature and that the latter is subject to the former. According to their creation myth, the original creatures were all human, but Pawa, their Creator, turned many of them into birds, animals, plants, rocks, celestial bodies, and others. Despite being different in form, these beings retained their humanity and are all related to the Ashaninka. Many other Indigenous traditions similarly hold that plants, trees, animals, birds, mountains, waterfalls and rivers, among others, can speak, feel and think and are tied to other beings in reciprocal relationships.

A SENTIENT WORLD

Ayahuasca taught them about the intimate connections among beings, the Ashaninka say. In their mythology, the ayahuasca vine sprouted from the place where a wise ancestral woman, Nanata, was buried; it possesses her wisdom. A japo bird (genus Cacicus) then explained to the Ashaninka how to unite the ayahuasca vine with a particular leaf (Psychotria viridis) to brew the sacred drink, kamarãpi. “They drank it and took it to their people, bringing light and conscience to them,” Benki said.

Kamarãpi rituals always take place at night, preferably under a clear, starry sky. There is no fire, no talking; the occasion is solemn. When the psychoactive brew starts to take effect, the shaman guiding the ceremony chants, usually to the birds and the spirits in the sky. Soon the others start to sing, too, their voices overlapping to create a rapturous polyphony. At this point, visions ensue. The shaman is attuned to every participant and monitors what they are feeling, intervening when necessary.

When I took part in the ritual, I felt my body dissolving into the surroundings, my self merging with the environment in a way that defies words, giving me a deep sense of the connectedness between other beings and me. In my experience, the kamarãpi ceremony establishes powerful bonds among everyone present and between the forest creatures and them, enabling communication to happen in silence even after the ritual is over.

As Moisés sees it, kamarãpi helps people develop their conscience by leading them toward self-knowledge and gradually to a deep knowledge of other people and other kinds of beings. Once developed, this wisdom will help guide their actions and relationships. Shamanic rituals have parallels with psychotherapy, anthropologist Claude Lévi-Strauss noted; shamans, like therapists, help people gain insight into themselves and their relationships with others. But psychotherapists are only recently beginning to comprehend the power of psychoactive substances in assisting trauma patients, among others, to come to terms with their suffering and thereby to heal. The kamarãpi ritual goes further, creating deep empathy not only for oneself and other human beings but also for other creatures, as well as for rivers and other features of the landscape. All come to be seen as connected, an awareness that has profound implications for how people treat nature.

Apiwtxa’s shamans even attribute their capacity to design their society to kamarãpi visions. Moisés, Benki and other shamans actively seek guidance from ayahuasca, with whose help they attain, sustain and explore an altered state of consciousness that enables them to envision the future and find solutions to challenges. Dreams are known to be conducive to problem-solving; they enable disparate concepts to link up in ways not normally available to the rational mind. Shamans in Ashaninka and other Indigenous cultures deliberately attain such states of consciousness as a means of seeking foresight and wisdom.

Dreaming is essential but not enough, Benki adds. It is also essential to plan—to think consciously and rationally—and act in the present. When a shaman reports a significant vision, the community discusses it and develops a plan of action. After Benki dreamed about a center for disseminating forest peoples’ philosophy—a place that would be rooted in ancestral knowledge while reaching out to the world with a message of caring for all beings—the Apiwtxa acted on it, founding the Yorenka Atame (Knowledge of the Forest) Center in 2007.

They constructed the building on a cattle pasture across the river from Marechal Thaumaturgo, a small town three hours downstream of Apiwtxa. Its creators intended Yorenka Atame as a demonstration to the townspeople of an alternative way of living and turned the pasture into a forest full of fruit trees. Earlier, while serving as environment secretary for the town, Benki had sought to lead its youth away from drug trafficking by training them in agroforestry and inviting them to kamarãpi ceremonies. Using ayahuasca is risky: its impact depends crucially on the brew and the skill and ethics of the person supervising the session. Benki hoped that with his guidance, the ritual would help the young people feel connected to nature—and it did. They helped him plant around Yorenka Atame and went on to establish a settlement called Raio do Sol, or Sunshine, where they grow their own food using agroecology.

Yorenka Atame is a place for exchanging knowledge about the forest and discussing what true development might mean. It has hosted many gatherings of Indigenous peoples and scholars from around the world. “We do not have enemies; we have partners and allies and the ones with whom we disagree,” Francisco said—the Apiwtxa wish to engage everyone in dialogue. Exchanges at Yorenka Atame and in the field have helped local rubber tappers to reforest their region and stimulated the cultural revitalization of many Indigenous groups, such as the Puyanawa peoples, who had been enslaved and almost killed off by rubber barons.

Such activities have given the Apiwtxa community a huge presence and influence in the region despite its small size. Isaak Piyãko, another of Antônio and Piti’s sons, became the first Indigenous mayor of Marechal Thaumaturgo in 2016. That he is among the leaders of the Apiwtxa, a community whose achievements are widely respected, probably helped his election.

In 2017 Benki and others established a related project, Yorenka Tasori (Knowledge of the Creator), with its own center. It facilitates the diffusion of Indigenous spiritual and medicinal knowledge among forest peoples and beyond. Yorenka Tasori also includes an effort to protect Ashaninka sacred sites, which are often places of great natural beauty but are threatened by roads, dams and extractive industries. As much a political as a spiritual endeavor, Yorenka Tasori seeks to revitalize traditional links among the Ashaninka as a way of restoring their historically powerful cohesiveness. In such manner—by protecting their ancestral knowledge, especially the awareness of interconnectedness with all other beings, and passing these gifts on to younger generations—the Apiwtxa hope to ensure the Ashaninka’s continuity as a people.

I accompanied Benki and other Apiwtxa representatives on visits to Ashaninka sacred sites in Peru and was struck by how people were drawn to them. They had an aura of serenity and power that attracted many others, so that our group grew inexorably as we traveled. The Apiwtxa leaders inspired hope wherever they went, to the extent that the chief of one Indigenous community said, “It must have been Pawa who sent you here to open our eyes.”

The Apiwtxa hope to open our eyes as well—to reach out to us with their message of unity and interrelatedness of all beings. They believe that a spiritual awareness of the underlying unity of creatures shows a way out of our epoch, marked as it is by ecological and societal crises—a time that is increasingly referred to as the Anthropocene. This geologic era derives from the relentless expansion of humankind’s destructive activities on Earth, impacting the atmosphere, oceans and wildlife to the point that they threaten the integrity of the biosphere. The anthropos least responsible for the Anthropocene—people inhabiting the land in traditional ways—are suffering its worst consequences, however, in damage to their environments, livelihoods and lives.

The Apiwtxa propose in place of permanent economic growth and extractive industry a social and economic system in which collaboration ranks above competition and where every being has a place and is important to the whole. By looking after human and other-than-human beings and cultivating diversity through protecting, restoring and enriching life, they are pointing to a pathway out of the Anthropocene.

“This message comes from Earth, as a request for humanity to understand that we are transient beings here and one cannot just look at one’s own well-being,” said Benki in an appeal to the world in 2017. “We have to look toward future generations and what we will leave for them. We have to think of our children and of Earth. We cannot leave the land impoverished and poisoned, as is happening now. Today we can already see great disasters beginning to happen, people emigrating out of their countries in search of water to drink and food to eat. We see a war going on for wealth now, and soon we will see a war for water and for food.

“Shall we wait, or shall we change history? Join us!”

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Is the USA energy independent?

Preface. Below are excerpts from U.S. House & Senate hearings where various speakers made the case that due to tight fracked gas & oil the United States had 100 or 200 or even 250 years of Energy Independence ahead.  For a long time the export of oil and gas had been prohibited, but Hurray for Fracking and Energy Independence. Congress then allowed the export of Liquefied Natural Gas, also seen as a bonus of keeping Europe and Asia away from Russian oil and gas dependency and consequently their influence.

I’m pretty sure Congress knows better from the 2007 Peak Oil Theory hearing, the testimony of military experts in many sessions, the 2006 Energy Independence Senate hearing, and top secret Homeland Security sessions.  Forger geologist, now senator Hickenlooper led the first 2005 Association for the Society of Peak Oil conference in Denver when he was mayor there.

Also, there were many speakers against energy exports in these hearings, but weren’t listened to, saying such things as how it would lead to higher prices for Americans, that it was probably temporary since the EIA predicted peak oil in 2019 (it happened in October 2018, pretty good estimate Energy Information Administration), and so on, but Congress went ahead and allowed exports.  I have not read all the congressional reports by any means, but the ones I have read and summarized are in the category Experts/GOVERNMENT/Congressional Record U.S./Energy Independence here if you’d like to see who warned that exporting oil and gas was a bad idea.

Related: here is a great article on natural gas — how we use extract, use, and more: Natural Gas: A Comprehensive Guide To The World’s Most Crucial Fuel

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Financial Sense, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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House 113-38. May 7, 2013. Exports and the changing global energy landscape. U.S. House of Representatives.

How long with energy independence last?

  • Mike Halleck. We have been told 200 to 250 years, some say as many as 500 years.
  • J Bennett Johnston. DOE says we have 100 years of Natural Gas
  • Joe Barton, TX: We think another 500 years (Barnett shale)
  • Michael R. Turner. The U.S. EIA says we have a nearly 100-year supply of natural gas
  • Scott Lincicome. U.S. EIA predicts oil and natural gas production to stay at relatively high levels for decades. The IEA says the U.S. could be a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and “almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035”, and the world’s largest oil producer by 2020 leading to North America’s emergence as a net oil exporter by 2035.

Increased U.S. natural gas exports = higher U.S. prices: Who knew? By Kurt Cobb

Few people noticed when energy reporters wrote in early January that the United States had become the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Now, a group of U.S. senators has noticed and say those exports may be driving up heating and electricity costs for their constituents. In a letter to the secretary of energy, they are asking the secretary “to conduct a review of LNG exports and their impact on domestic prices and the public interest, and develop a plan to ensure natural gas remains affordable for American households.”

Who knew that exporting natural gas from American gas fields would raise natural gas prices at home? Well, the natural gas industry certainly knew. In the last decade, the industry was smarting under persistent low prices as it continually overproduced gas into a flooded domestic market.

It pushed for and succeeded in relaxing rules for exports in general and for expedited approvals of new export cargoes and facilities.

2013-2-12. Natural gas resources S. Hrg. 113-1. United States Senate.

Jack Gerard, President and CEO of American Petroleum Institute: “Six/seven years ago someone estimated [reserves were] about 20 to 30 years. Most recently the EIA has estimated that it’s at least 90–95 years. Other independent analysis—ICF, etcetera have estimated it’s 150 years, and there’s some who’ve believe it’s 200–300 years worth of supply at current levels of consumption. It’s evolving quickly because of breakthrough technology as we define more resources. It’s going up dramatically quickly. What happened today, and I can’t overstate this, what is happening today is unprecedented in the history of our country in terms of our opportunity to become energy secure and self-sufficient. Just think back 5 or 6 years ago nobody was having this conversation. Today we’re the world’s No. 1 gas producer. It’s now estimated through this advancement in technology, we’ll be the world’s No. 1 oil producer by 2020, 7 short years and surpass Saudi Arabia.”

ANDREW N. LIVERIS, CHAIRMAN & CEO, DOW CHEMICAL COMPANY

We are in year four or five of a 100 year energy advantage.

Dow is investing about $4 billion in new U.S. facilities. To a great extent, continuing optimism for U.S. manufacturing is founded on the prospect of an adequate, reliable and reasonably priced supply of natural gas. Over 100 new projects have been announced so far, representing approximately $95 billion in new investments.

Companies in the manufacturing, transportation and utility sectors are making investment decisions based on today’s competitive prices and the outlook for affordable and stable natural gas into the future. These decisions will play out over the next ten to twenty years. Our assessments indicate that demand for U.S. natural gas may increase by approximately 60 percent above current levels by 2035. An important corollary question is whether supply can possibly keep up with this new demand.

RON WYDEN, U.S. SENATOR FROM OREGON:  For the first time in decades, our Nation will be able to rely on its own U.S. energy resources, especially new oil and gas development from shale instead of being dependent on imports from the Middle East and other parts of the world that haven’t always had our best interests at heart. This is a major change for American energy policy.

MARY L. LANDRIEU, U.S. SENATOR FROM LOUISIANA. The wealth of natural gas is extraordinary, with estimates indicating America currently has 317 trillion cubic feet of proven, accessible reserves, and a further 2,000 tcf in total resource base estimates. This is enough to fulfill our current demand, a little over 24 bcf per day, for over 100 years.

LISA MURKOWSKI, Alaska senator: When we look at our energy sources just a few years ago, we were talking about the scarcity of our resources. We have now moved from a discussion about scarcity to one of abundance. In addition, our allies overseas are now looking at the United States, they want our natural gas, and we’ve got enough resources to help make that happen.

JOHN W. HICKENLOOPER, Governor of Colorado: Energy independence used to be a catch phrase that people would throw around, but I think we are legitimately on the threshold of achieving it for the first time in my lifetime… what we’ve seen in the last decade is truly transformational.

LEE FULLER, VP OF Government relations, Independent Petroleum Association of America. Projections suggest that identified resources could provide enough natural gas to meet America’s needs based on current demand for as much as 100 years.

Senate 113-355.  January 30, 2014. Crude oil exports. U.S. Senate.

HAROLD HAMM, CHAIRMAN & CEO CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.

  • America now counts their natural gas supplies in centuries.
  • Experts agree we’ll be energy independent in terms of crude oil within this decade.
  • It was in complete contrast to the popular belief that the United States would be running out of oil and gas at the turn of the 21st century.

Senate 113-355. January 30, 2014. Crude oil exports. U.S. Senate. 67 pages.

HAROLD HAMM, CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER, CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC., OKLAHOMA CITY, OK.

In October 2011 DEPA put a stake in the ground and predicted American energy independence by 2020. America’s independent oil and gas producers have unlocked the technology and resources that made this a reality, not the majors. As a result we can today mark the recent 40th anniversary of the OPEC oil embargo by ending their oil scarcity in America and along with it ending the last short sighted regulation passed during that same period.

  • America now counts their natural gas supplies in centuries.
  • Experts agree we’ll be energy independent in terms of crude oil within this decade. This phenomenon was brought about by a group of independent American producers and missed by the general consensus of the industry.
  • It was in complete contrast to the popular belief that the United States would be running out of oil and gas at the turn of the 21st century.

House 113-187. December 11, 2014. The energy policy and conservation act of 1975: Are we positioning America for success in an era of energy abundance? U.S. House of Representatives. 118 pages.

Excerpts follow:

ED WHITFIELD, KENTUCKY.   This morning’s hearing we are going to be focused on the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), which prohibited the export of crude oil. But as we all know, the trends behind the oil export restrictions have dramatically reversed themselves in recent years. Thanks to advances in hydraulic fracturing and directional drilling, domestic oil production has been sharply rising.  In fact, America may soon be producing more oil than it can handle. We will conduct a thorough analysis and give all points of view the opportunity to be heard before we consider whether to take action [to allow the export of crude oil].

JOE BARTON, TEXASI would hope in the new Congress we take a look at the bill that I have introduced this week, H.R. 5814 which repeals the ban on crude oil exports, and it requires a study reported to this committee of what we do with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It is a different world today, Mr. Chairman, and when you are number one you use that status. If we allow our producers to export the crude oil that can’t be consumed here in the United States or refined here in the United States, we put pressure on OPEC, we put pressure on Russia, we create jobs here at home, and we make sure that that world price which sets the crude oil price is based on real supply and demand, and that is a good thing for everybody.

House 113-1. February 5, 2013. American energy security & innovation: an assessment of North America’s energy resources. House of Representatives. 202 pages.

ED WHITFIELD, KENTUCKY: The title of today’s hearing is ‘‘American Energy Security and Innovation,’’ and we are going to focus on an assessment of North America’s energy resources. Certainly, one of the primary factors that affects the economy is energy policy, and certainly there are other factors as well but that plays a vital role.

I was reminded as I read the testimony last night that it wasn’t too many years ago when people throughout the country, experts and otherwise, were talking about the United States fossil fuels, for example, their resources were being depleted. We were running out of oil, we were running out of natural gas and we were going to have to be importing more. As a matter of fact, in January 2007, a CEO of one of our largest utility companies made the comment that we were running out of natural gas, production was declining and demand growing so he expected that imports would go from 3 percent of our national needs to 24 percent in 2020.

And then of course, we know what has happened. We have had all sorts of new discoveries—the Bakken field, the Eagle Ford, developments in Colorado—and most of these shale fields have been discovered on private lands, and even though the number of permits on public lands has gone down, the production on private lands has increased dramatically. So this is a real game changer. We have heard the term for many, many years, we have the opportunity to be energy independent, and that is actually the reality today, we have abundant resources that can meet the needs of this country on the electricity side and the transportation side for years and years to come.

We have seen increases in domestic oil production since 2007 and natural gas production since 2006, according to the Energy Information Administration. And EIA predicts that these upward trends will continue for years to come. At the same time, Canadian oil production is growing so fast that we will need the Keystone XL pipeline expansion project to bring the additional output to American refineries in the Midwest and Gulf Coast. In fact, the news is so promising that some analysts are talking about the possibility of achieving North American energy independence by the end of the decade. Of course, experts may disagree as to just how much energy potential is out there, but none would have claimed just a few years ago that our nation would reverse course and have the potential to become a true global energy supplier and powerhouse.

We are seeing a truly dramatic shift away from long-held beliefs about domestic oil and natural gas supplies. So much of our existing legislation is rooted in the assumption of domestic energy scarcity, not energy abundance. Needless to say, a wholesale rethinking of energy policy is in order, and today’s hearing is the first step in that process.

We will soon hear from one of our witnesses, Mary Hutzler of the Institute for Energy Research, America possesses nearly half of the entire world’s coal reserves. This is enough coal to continue its use at current rates for 500 years.

The good news is that a future of plentiful, affordable, and reliable supplies of North American energy is no longer just a dream.

FRED UPTON, MICHIGAN. Certainly, this hearing is a welcome one to examine the positive developments resulting from advancements in innovation and technology, the game-changing potential for North American energy independence. What was once believed to be unthinkable is certainly now within our grasp. For 3 decades, 30 years, the American people have been told that we are a Nation of declining resources at the mercy of OPEC. The story was nearly as gloomy with natural gas with forecasts of dwindling domestic supplies, higher prices, and rising imports from the Middle East.

In fact, in this committee, many may remember when we crafted a new title in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 to facilitate what we thought would be the new norm: pending reliance on imported gas from geopolitically unstable regions of the world, to add to our growing reliance on OPEC oil.

But thanks to American ingenuity and advanced technologies, the trends in domestic oil and natural gas production have in fact been turned upside down. In fact, the United States is now the world’s leading producer of natural gas, and the IEA is predicting that by 2020, U.S. oil production will exceed Saudi Arabia. 2020, let me repeat that, we are going to exceed the production in Saudi Arabia. Our overall energy landscape has changed dramatically in just a short period of time, and it is not only rewriting the economic outlook that we have as a Nation, but also beginning to change the geopolitical nature of global energy economics.

JOE BARTON, TEXAS. As we speak today, in the Barnett shale, there are over 16,000 producing natural gas wells, and last year they produced in the neighborhood of 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in that one field. With the miracle of hydraulic fracturing, we have unleashed a drilling and production revolution in this country, not only in natural gas but now that technology is being used in oil, and the State of North Dakota, which less than 10 years ago had probably fewer than 200 or 300 oil wells, is on track in that one State to produce over a million barrels of oil in the very near future, possibly this year. We can be energy independent if we want to. It is not a question of can we.

STATEMENT OF DANIEL YERGIN, Vice Chairman, IHS. The United States is in the midst of an unconventional revolution in oil and gas that fits that all-of- the-above strategy that Congressman Rush talked about.

In March, 2011, President Obama spoke about how “recent innovations have given us the opportunity to tap” large reserves of natural gas – “perhaps a century’s worth of reserves.” 

Those of you who participated in hearings in 2008 remember those dark, dire days when, I think as Chairman Whitfield reminded, the world was going to run out of oil and the United States was going to run out of oil even more quickly. How that has changed. Shale gas now has gone from 2% of our supply to 37% of our supply, and what is really dramatic is what has happened on oil, which instead of continuing its long decline has increased dramatically by almost 39% since 2008. It is sobering to consider that without these technologies, and the oil output that has resulted from them, the sanctions on Iran might well have failed.

Certainly expanded domestic supply will add resilience to shocks and add to our security cushion. Moreover, prudent expansion of U.S. energy exports will actually add an additional dimension to U.S. influence in the world. However, there remains only one world oil market, and a disruption anywhere will be a disruption everywhere.

Owing to the scale and impact of shale gas and tight oil, it is appropriate to describe their development as the most important energy innovation so far of the 21st century. That is said with recognition of the major technological advances in wind and solar since 2000; but, as is described in The Quest, those advances are part of the “rebirth of renewables”. As actual innovations, solar and wind emerged in the 1970s and 1980s.

So far, this unconventional revolution is supporting 1.7 million jobs – direct, indirect, and induced. It is notable that, owing to the long supply chains, the job impacts are being felt across the United States, including in states with no shale gas or tight oil activity. For instance, New York State, with a ban presently in effect on shale gas development, nevertheless has benefited with 44,000 jobs. Illinois, debating how to go forward, already registers 39,000 jobs.

MARY J. HUTZLER. The Institute for Energy Research is a nonprofit think tank that conducts research and analysis concerning global energy issues.

The United States has vast resources of oil, natural gas, and coal. In a few short years, a 40-year paradigm-that we were energy resource poor-has been disproven. lnstead of being resource poor, we are incredibly energy rich.

The amount of technically recoverable oil in the United States totals almost 90% of the entire oil reserves in the world. Technically recoverable resources are not equivalent to reserves, but comparing their magnitudes provides a way to measure size. IER’s estimate of technically recoverable oil in the United States is 1,422 billion barrels. That amount of oil can satisfy U.S. oil demand for 250 years at current usage rates or it can fuel every passenger car in the United States for 430 years. It is also more oil than the entire world has used in all human history. The technically recoverable natural gas resources in the United States total 40% of the world’s natural gas reserves. At 2,744 trillion cubic feet, it can fuel natural gas demand in the United States for 175 years at current usage rates, or selectively, it can satisfy the nation’s residential demand for 857 years or the nation’s electricity demand for 575 years.

Technically recoverable coal resources in the United States are unsurpassed and total 50% of the world’s coal reserves. At 486 billion short tons, it can supply our country’s electricity demand for coal for almost 500 years at current usage rates.

Natural Gas Replenishment

The Myth of Peak Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal For many years, we have heard of fossil fuels reaching their peak production levels or at the verge of being depleted.

The same is true for the myth of ‘peak’ coal. In 2007, David Hughes, Geologist for the Geological Survey of Canada, stated, “Peak coal looks like it’s occurred in the lower 48.” And yet, the United States still has the largest coal reserves in the world. Rather than depletion effects, our coal industry is faced with overly broad and restrictive regulations on the use of coal and increasing restrictions on coal production from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Harry Vidas, Vice President, ICF International. ICF estimates that the remaining technically recoverable U.S. natural gas resource base is 3,850 trillion cubic feet, which represents 155 years of current consumption. The U.S. shale gas resource is almost 2,000 TCF, 52% of the total.

Our current assessment of the U.S. oil resources in terms of technically recoverable resources is 264 billion barrels. This represents 110 years of production at current production rates.

House 112-176. September 13, 2012. The American energy initiative part 28: A focus on the outlook for Achieving North American energy independence within the decade. House of Representatives.

ED WHITFIELD, KENTUCKY. Today we are going to talk about what I consider some very good news, and that is the achievability of North American energy independence and particularly oil independence within the span of a mere decade. And not only can we talk about oil but we also could talk about independence in natural gas because of the tremendous finds that we are finding. Today, we are going to talk about some very good news – the achievability of North American energy independence, and particularly oil independence, within the span of a mere decade.

Mr. Harold Hamm, Chairman and CEO of Continental Resources and energy policy advisor to Governor Romney. I’m here today to talk to you about the viability of American energy independence. I am here to testify to the policies needed to insure North American Energy Independence in the next decade. America is endowed with an estimated 139.6 billion barrels of recoverable oil-enough to replace Persian Gulf imports for the next 50 years. We also have undiscovered technically recoverable natural gas of 1445.3 trillion cubic feet.

We now have natural gas reserves of over a century.

Daniel Ahn, Chief Commodities Economist at Citigroup in New York. Earlier this year, my colleagues and I published a report entitled ‘‘Energy 2020: North America, the New Middle East,’’ and I would like to take the opportunity to share and update its conclusions. North America has recently become the fastest-growing hydrocarbon producer and exporter in the world, and this trend should accelerate to the end of the decade.  American dependence on imported oil outside of North America should shrink or even be eliminated entirely. Global oil prices could fall by 15 or even 20 percent. Energy-intensive manufacturing industries such as petroleum refining, petrochemicals, fertilizers, iron, steel, aluminum smelting, all should strategically benefit. Natural-gas-fueled vehicles could proliferate on American roads. Given the confluence of declining consumption and growing production, and what is geologically, technologically, and economically feasible, we project that North America can potentially achieve energy independence (i.e. oil/gas net self-sufficiency) by 2020.

John Freeman, Energy Research Group at Raymond James.

America is already a major exporter of coal, and together with Canada, we are already self-sufficient when it comes to natural gas, and for the first time in over 50 years, there is clear visibility on how oil independence can be achieved.  We believe imports can disappear entirely by as early as 2020.

Mark P. Mills, Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute. The United States can, quite literally, drill, dig, build, and ship its way out of the current economic and jobs malaise. The new reality of hydro carbon abundance makes possible not only energy independence, but also a credible scenario in which the Middle East is displaced as the world’s primary energy exporter.

Mr. POMPEO. Mr. Hamm, it wasn’t very long ago that there was peak oil, we are about out of the stuff. All of American energy policy really for the last 25, 30 years under both parties was premised on that notion. Any validity to the fact that you are wrong, that what we have heard from these economists today is wrong and that we do have this challenge in front of us in the near term?

Mr. HAMM. There are several believers in peak oil. I wasn’t in that group. You know, there are still some people, I guess, that maybe are talking about peak oil. But, you know, frankly it is supply and development and we are seeing so many other oil plays across the United States today that, you know, it is almost too many to quantify at this time. But the big ones that we have, of course the Bakken and Eagle Ford, and that is adding so much supply here in the United States, plus natural-gas production across the United States brings a lot of liquid with it as well.

Steve Scalise, Louisiana. I think a lot of us have been pushing to get North America energy independence within a decade. It is clearly a goal that we can achieve, but it is also clearly a goal that can’t be achieved under the current policies of President Obama

 

 

 

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Dawn of Everything Miscellaneous

Preface.  I’ve put interesting bits that don’t belong in a single category here as well as summaries and links to new archeological discoveries, societies today living in balance sustainably, etc.  Starting with the review from Science which summarizes the book nicely.

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States do not evolve from Bands to Tribes to Chiefdoms to States

Preface.  The bulk of this book is dedicated to showing why the idea of the evolution from tribes to states is false. If the authors are correct, then the flexibility of societies to invent ways of living with more freedom and fulfilling lifestyles is far greater than we think, since we’re “stuck” now in modern civilizations (made possible by fossil fuels) and can’t see that other options exist.

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The freedom to travel enabled people to flee to better tribes

Preface.  One of my favorite books was Bruce Chatwin’s “Songlines” about how aborigines were included by the Australian government in the building of a new railroad so that sacred sites could be avoided and they could add the rail line into their songs. These songs also helped them navigate across the continent and find welcome wherever they went.  Native Americans could also travel and be welcomed by their clans far away, and since sign language was universal, were able to communicate wherever they went.

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How past societies avoided the Agricultural trap

Preface.  There’s a great deal of evidence that past tribes did grow food but deliberately chose not to make that the entirety of the way they lived, preferring a more seasonal styles of life with hunting and gathering, and governance that gave everyone more freedom, and different freedoms depending on their habitat.  It is yet more evidence that we can choose how to live and govern ourselves far differently than the industrial capitalism “rape and pillage” of resources.

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