BioInvasion

BioInvasion Overview

Animals           Diseases          Insects             Ocean              Plants

  • Over 50,000 non-native species cause over $120 billion dollars of damage, per year, in the United States More than 120,000 species have invaded the USA, UK, Australia, India, South Africa and Brazil
  • Invaders include viruses and bacteria such as tuberculosis, AIDS, flu, cholera, hepatitis, etc.
  • Invasive species are second only to human population growth in causing a loss of biodiversity, responsible for about 42% of the decline in endangered and threatened native species in the USA.
  • Of course, not all species are harmful, and 98% of our food supply comes from non-native species like corn, wheat, cattle, and poultry.
  • Roughly 25% of the 120,000 introduced species cause damage.

Source: Pimentel, David. 2002. Biological Invasions: Economic and Environmental Costs of Alien Plant, Animal, and Microbe Species. CRC Press

March 2016. Tiny water flea, big cost: Scientists say invasive species impacts much worse than thought.

July 2015. Boosting nutrients gives a leg up to invasive species

March 2012. Invasive species cost the Great Lakes millions: New paper assigns dollar figure to effects of shipborne invaders.

The world’s 100 worst invasive species

Invasive species in the United States

Wikipedia invasive species

Annual economic costs of some introduced species in the USA.  David Pimentel, Lori Lach, Rodolfo Zuniga and Doug Morrison, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University

Weeds in crops                      $29,000,000,000

Diseases in crops                     23,500,000,000

Rats                                       19,000,000,000

Insects in crops                       14,500,000,000

Weeds in forages, gardens, etc.  6,500,000,000

Human diseases                         6,500,000,000

Cats                                         6,000,000,000

Plant diseases in gardens           3,000,000,000

Zebra mussels                          3,000,000,000

Insects in gardens                     2,500,000,000

Insects in forests                      2,100,000,000

Birds                                       2,100,000,000

Asiatic clam                              1,000,000,000

Fishes                                     1,000,000,000

Other plants                                250,000,000

Pigs                                            200,000,000

Dogs                                          136,000,000

Elm disease                                 100,000,000

Mongoose                                    50,000,000

Green crab                                   44,000,000

Gypsy moth                                 22,000,000

Fire ants                                      10,000,000

Horses and burros                         5,000,000

Reptiles and amphibians                    604,000

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Animal BioInvasion

Mongoose. Brought to kill rats in sugar plantations in Puerto Rico and Hawaii in the 1800s.  Now they’re destroying native birds, amphibians, and reptiles that would have been beneficial for pest control.  12 species of reptiles and amphibians have been driven extinct by mongooses, which also carry rabies and leptospirosis.

Rats.  The United States has over a billion rats (mainly introduced Rattus rattus a.k.a European, black, or tree rat) and ratus norvegicus (Norway or brown rat).  Poultry and other farms have about 1  billion rats, and urban and suburban areas have about 1 rat per human.  Rats cause fires by gnawing on electric wires, polluting food, and carrying diseases.

Cats.  About 200 million birds are killed a year by America’s 63 million domestic cats and 30 million feral cats.

Dogs.  They bite around 4.7 million people a year, sending 800,000 to emergency rooms. Wild dogs in Florida, Texas, and other states harm far more livestock than wolves or coyotes, about $10 million in damage per year.

English sparrow.  Eats crops, displaces native birds, carries 29 diseases that affect humans and domestic animals, plus the canker worms that invade gardens.

Jan 26, 1999.  Alien Animals, Plants And Microbes Cost U.S. $123 Billion A Year, Cornell Ecologists Report.  Science Daily

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Ocean BioInvasion

 January 2016. Potential invasive species identified in S. Gulf of Mexico.

November 2015. Marine invasive species benefiting from rising carbon dioxide levels Territories changing due to ocean acidification.

March 2013. Invasive species: Understanding the threat before it’s too late.

7 Sep 2011. Giant Crabs invade Antarctica. New Scientist (original source Proceedings of the Royal Society)

More than a million large 3-foot wide crabs have invaded deep Antarctic waters after the water warmed up enough for them to survive.  They’ve wiped out the local wildlife (sea urchins, sea lilies, sea cucumbers, starfish and brittle stars ) and now threaten to ruin ecosystems that have evolved over 14 million years.   The only way to make them go away is to stop global warming, says Craig Smith of the University of Hawaii at Manoa, who discovered the scarlet invaders.

Molnar, Jennifer, et. al. 2008. Assessing the global threat of invasive species to marine biodiversity  Frontiers in Ecology 6(9): 485-492.

Invasive species have transformed marine habitats around the world. The most harmful of these invaders displace native species, change community structure and food webs, and alter fundamental processes, such as nutrient cycling and sedimentation. Alien invasives have damaged economies by diminishing fisheries, fouling ships’ hulls, and clogging intake pipes. Some can even directly impact human health by causing disease

6 Jun 2012. Dock found in Oregon is debris from Japan.

A 165 ton dock (70-feet-long, 19 feet wide, 7 fet high) landed on Agate beach in Oregon near Newport. It originally came from a fishing port 5,000 miles away in northern Japan, torn loose by last year’s tsunami.

A starfish native to Japan was among the marine life still clinging to the structure. John Chapman, a research scientist at Oregon State University’s Hatfield Marine Science Center, said hundreds of millions of other organisms also hitchhiked across the ocean on the dock — some of which are invasive species never before seen on this part of the West Coast. Among the organisms are a species of tiny crab that has run wild on the East Coast but not on the West, and a kind of algae that has hit southern California but not Oregon.

“This is a very clear threat,” he said. “It’s exactly like saying you threw a bowling ball into a China shop. It’s going to break something.”

Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., called on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to redouble its efforts to track the debris, saying something as big as the dock could pose a danger to ships at sea.

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How and Why Corporate Interests Attack Science. A Detailed Account of the Attack on the Hockey Stick graph

A Book review of:

Bradley, Raymond. S.  2011.  Global Warming and Political Intimidation.  How Politicians Cracked Down on Scientists as the Earth Heated up.  University of Massachusetts Press.

I would read Oreskes’ “Merchants of Doubt. How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming” first for an overview of how commercial interests manipulate the political process to prevent regulation and receive outrageous amounts of public money.

Then I’d read this book to learn the specifics of the attack.  This book also has an easy-to-understand explanation of the research that led them to their conclusions (about the hockey stick graph, made famous by Al Gore’s movie “An Inconvenient Truth”), and why the attacks of other scientists were bogus and not published by good peer-reviewed journals.

The details of the right-wing attack on science in this book make you really feel the pain and suffering inflicted on scientists like Bradley.  Fighting the attack takes up so much of their time they can’t continue to do research, no doubt another reason to go after them.

The main reason the “hockey stick” teams research was attacked was to reduce the credibility of the 2007 IPCC report.

It’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry when politicians bought by special interests, such as Senator Inhofe, invite a science fiction writer to testify about climate change.  Michal Crichton has a background in medicine, and as Bradley puts it “I really don’t follow the logic.  If I had a medical problem, I wouldn’t want to be treated by a climatologist.  So what possesses a doctor (an M.D., that is) to feel qualified to sound off about climate science is beyond me.  As a fully paid-up climatologist of many years’ standing, I know there is an immense amount about climate science that I don’t know.  The idea of weighing in on an entirely different field strikes me as presumptuous at best and foolish at worst”.

Yet Bradley falls prey to the same problem when he hopes that green technology will save us from burning fossil fuels – this simply isn’t a solution.  The best books to understand why fossil fuels are not replaceable are Hayden’s “Solar Fraud. Why Solar Energy Won’t Run the World” and Trainer’s “Renewable Energy Cannot Sustain a Consumer Society”.

Some of the scary rate-of-change statistics in the book:

  • Climate hasn’t changed this much in at least the last 850,000 years
  • When we burn fossil fuels like coal and oil, we’re releasing carbon dioxide thousands of times faster than it took to form coal and oil deposits.
  • Carbon dioxide levels have risen 40% in just the past 250 years
  • Never have greenhouse gases tripled within a few centuries, and we’re destroying the plants that could help to sequester CO2.

One of the most important concepts to understand is that it’s the rate of change that’s especially frightening about climate change.  If change is slow, then plants and animals can gradually move elsewhere and develop new adaptations to cope with the changes. Bradley has a good analogy of why the rate of change is so important. “If you trip and fall down, you won’t hurt yourself too badly; your system is capable of handling the speed at which you hit the ground.  But if you fall from a ten-story building, there’s likely to be a different result.  Your system is not adapted to deal with the much faster rate of descent in the second case.  In the same way, all systems have evolved to cope with the normal variability in existing environmental conditions.”

Bradley asks whether this rate of change really matters.  Planet earth will survive, he says, but it may become uninhabitable.  Not just from climate change, but from how much humans have altered the earth’s surface through agriculture, roads, vegetation destruction, damaging and diverting water, etc. — which will make it even harder for life to adapt to climate change.

The book is full of easy to understand explanations, which the public desperately needs, not all scientists are good at conveying what they do.  For example, here’s Bradley’s explanation of the difference between weather and climate:

“The energy that the earth receives from the sun is not distributed equally.  Because the earth is a sphere that rotates on its axis as it revolves around the sun, more energy is received near the Equator and in the tropics than at higher latitudes, and more is received (in each hemisphere) during summer months than in winter months.  These factors are what cause the atmosphere and the oceans to circulate, redistributing the energy around the globe.  Continents and mountain ranges get in the way, forcing ocean currents to carry warm (or cold) water to places where they might not otherwise go, and causing the atmosphere to swerve far to the north or south as it sweeps across the globe.  The immediate consequences of these processes are what we think of as weather—the daily and seasonal variations in temperature, rainfall, humidity, cloudiness, and so on that characterize each region.  But over time, the same kinds of weather events tend to recur within each region—of course, a bit mixed up from one year to the next.  This general repetition, season to season, year to year, gives each place its distinct “climate”.

In the future, temperatures will rise over the entire planet. Rainfall is harder to predict, but it will be altered too.  In general, high-latitude regions will get wetter, and subtropical and lower latitude will become drier – regions that now produce enormous amounts of food.

[my comment: I really don’t understand how anyone could deny that humans are causing carbon dioxide to increase.  Coal and oil are ancient plants full of carbon dioxide laid down 330 million years ago.  Billions of people are burning fossil fuels, releasing their carbon dioxide (and other pollutants).  Why would that not have an effect?  Alice Friedemann, energyskeptic]

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Termites, air pollution, and ozone depletion

Excerpts from the book below.  Ozone depletion is also one of the 9 boundaries we must not cross.

Klein, Hilary Dole, and Adrian M. Wenner 2001. Tiny Game Hunting: Environmentally Healthy Ways to Trap and Kill the Pests in Your House and Garden,  University of California Press.

If you suspect a termite colony is in the ground near your house (wood in the woodpile, tree stumps, or fence posts show signs of being eaten), get out a shovel and start digging. You can’t totally expose a very large colony, but you can create access to it for ants and other termite enemies.

People commonly buy and sell at least one or two homes during their lifetime, and renters move even more frequently; but little information is kept on the pesticide-use history of a dwelling. How are you to know, when you move into a house, that it has been treated with gallons of chlordane, not once, but over and over again?

When a house is tented and fumigated, methyl bromide or sulfuryl fluoride (Vikane) is pumped into it. These are among the most toxic and hazardous pesticides used today, a dangerous source of pesticidal air pollution that may result in unsafe exposures for people living nearby. Moreover, a United Nations scientific panel estimated that methyl bromide is responsible for from 5 to 10 percent of ozone depletion worldwide. In 1995, almost 600,000 pounds of this chemical were injected into thousands of California homes and businesses. Furthermore, according to Californians for Pesticide Reform, methyl bromide levels outside homes under fumigation may exceed the California safety standard sevenfold. And methyl bromide can be detected inside other closed houses up to 100 feet away from a fumigated structure. Passersby beware! Hazardous vapors drifting through empty pipes into neighboring houses have killed a number of people.

Used much more frequently than methyl bromide, Vikane is an extremely toxic nerve poison. Researchers have found that it can be absorbed by many household materials and released for up to forty days after fumigation.

Fumigation only kills the termites in the house and does not affect underground nests. Houses can be reinfested immediately afterward, although evidence that a colony exists then may take a few years to show up. And often after pesticides are used, people do not attend to the important tasks of monitoring and detection.

People twenty years ago might be forgiven for using hazardous substances to “save” their homes. But today a variety of nontoxic treatments for termites are available. Call around to locate exterminators who use them and give them your business. The more we demand safe treatments that will not poison our water and air, the more operators will begin to use those treatments.

Traditionally, the treatment for subterranean termites has been to inject insecticides into the soil around and beneath houses. Chlorinated hydrocarbons such as chlordane were used routinely for termites (and ants) in millions of homes. A known carcinogen, chlordane remains active for twenty-five years. It is no longer on the market, but its use (and overuse) may be one of the twentieth century’s great pesticide disasters.Pages 94-95

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Air Pollution effects on conifers in California

Below is an excerpt on how air pollution in California affects nearby forests from the book:

Johnston, Verna R.  1994. California Forests and Woodlands: A Natural History.  University of California Press.

It was in the Mixed Conifer Forests of the San Bernardino Mountains east of Los Angeles that air pollution damage to Pacific Ponderosa Pines first became recognized in the early 1960s. For nearly a decade a mysterious blight known as “Disease X” had been turning the needles of mature Ponderosas a mottled yellow before destroying the trees. No one guessed, at that time, that the smog from the Los Angeles Basin 60 miles away could be the killer.

As trees died by the thousands, Paul Miller and colleagues traced the lethal agent to its source. The brown smog that blankets Los Angeles comes largely from millions of automobiles. When hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides from car exhausts combine in sunshine, one of their major products is ozone (O3 ). An invisible, eye-stinging, caustic gas, ozone can crack rubber, deteriorate fabrics, scar lungs, and cause coughing, shortness of breath, pain, and fatigue. And, it kills trees!

Ozone, along with all the other air pollutants generated in Los Angeles, ordinarily remains trapped there during much of the day by inversion layers of warm air over the mountains rimming the basin. When afternoon offshore breezes blow the smog-laden air upslope into the mountains, ridges in direct line with the air currents suffer devastating tree losses.

Ozone acts quickly. Ponderosa Pines usually keep their needles 3 to 4 years. Ozone-struck trees shed all but the current crop, leaving a sparse, stripped tree. The remaining needles soon show yellow mottling as ozone destroys the chlorophyll. As the needles fall, the root system deteriorates and resin flow in the trunks slows down, opening the way for bark beetles.

Fortunately, not all kinds of trees succumb in the same degree and, even among the most sensitive Ponderosa and Jeffrey Pines, some specimens show an inborn resistance. Sugar Pine, luckily, seems relatively immune. But the list of vulnerable conifers grows with each decade of bad air exposure. And this disaster is not confined to southern California.

Ozone damage, now known as ozone mottle, became visible in the southern Sierra in the mid-1970s and continues to increase ominously. ON countless days a brown layer of pollution hangs over the San Joaquin Valley west of Sequoia/Kings Canyon National Parks. It shows up plainly from Moro Rock. Afternoon upslope breezes blow the ravaging pollutants into the 5,000 to 7,000-foot levels (1,500 to 2,100 m) of the parks, where ozone works ruinous havoc on the pines and oaks and on some Giant Sequoia seedlings. Sequoia National Park has recorded the highest cumulative levels of ozone over a one-day period for all of the national parks. Levels in Sequoia regularly climb higher than those of Los Angeles.

Yosemite National Park, farther north, suffered a fivefold increase in ozone damage between 1985 and 1990. Thirty percent of its Jeffrey and Ponderosa Pines show yellow needle mottling, and no area in Yosemite’s mixed conifer belt stands free from ozone’s relentless scourge. Adjacent national forests display steadily growing numbers of Ponderosa and Jeffrey Pines with the thinning crowns and mottled needles that are ozone’s trademark.

California’s Great Central Valley sits in the midst of an even larger basin than Los Angeles, bordered by mountains and hemmed in by the same inversion layer that traps smog beneath. As populations of valley cities boom, more and more of their polluted air follows its daily, deadly flow uphill to the Mixed Conifer Forests of the western Sierra Nevada.

The most diverse coniferous forests on this earth, still very beautiful, face all the natural ecological challenges of forest life-fire, drought, insects, fungi, winds-with adaptations built in over centuries. Their genetic resistance to poisonous air is now being sorely tested. In both the short and the long run, air pollution of human derivation will require a solution for humans and trees, for both are dependent on the same air for survival.  Pages 109-110

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Air Pollution in “Deceit and Denial: The Deadly Politics of Industrial Pollution”

The fight against industrial chemicals is far from won. Chemical lobbyists spend tens of millions of dollars convincing legislators to not pass legislation that would protect you.  For example, check out the Green Policy Institute at the University of California, Berkeley. Learn how to reduce chemical hazards in your own home, and don’t re-elect politicians in bed with the chemical industry.

Below are a few of the air pollution paragraphs from this excellent book:

Markowitz, Gerald, and David Rosner. 2002. Deceit and Denial: The Deadly Politics of Industrial Pollution. University of California Press.

It is a tenet of democracy that citizens should have full access to information so they can make informed decisions about policies that affect their lives. In the case of industrial toxins, such information has been regularly denied to workers and the general public. As a result, factory workers have been assailed by noxious fumes and dangerous chemicals even while beseeching industry for information and protection. Over time these toxins have been vented into the air, spilled into waterways, and dumped onto the land, both legally and illegally, making industrial pollution an issue of widespread public concern. But the general public, like workers before them, has not been given sufficient information to understand the danger that exists all around them. It has taken catastrophes like Love Canal in Niagara Falls, New York, Times Beach, Missouri, and Bhopal, India, to bring home to people the danger industry poses to their lives and the environment and the public’s need to have free access to information about toxic substances in the environment. Despite all this, industry has continued to hide and obfuscate information it had about the toxic characteristics of some of its products and, in the wake of the attack on the World Trade Center, the Bush administration has further undermined the Freedom of Information Act. As a result, people have been denied information about the toxins they have been ingesting and inhaling every day. page 3

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But the crisis at Standard Oil’s plant in Bayway, New Jersey, was different. Very quickly it became clear that more was at stake than the lives of a few workers. Public health officials and the public who read the daily accounts of dying workers understood that the gas that was killing the workers also could kill or harm ordinary citizens breathing air polluted by automobiles or who were pumping gas at the rapidly growing network of filling stations across the country. The horrendous experiences with poison gas in World War I less than a decade earlier had heightened public concern over the new substance, also called a “gas,” that was making headlines in many major cities. With little distinction between the organic lead that was poisoning workers in the Standard Oil plant and the inorganic lead that would be spewing from the exhaust pipes of cars, newspapers fanned the fears that a toxic gas would soon be inhaled by millions of Americans. Industry leaders understood that if they could not contain the developing crisis, millions upon millions of dollars would be at risk. The questions: how to contain it, and what would containment mean?

On the one hand, the gasoline and lead industry had to develop a program to prevent dramatic outbreaks of “loony gas poisoning” within the plant if it were to quell public outrage generated by lurid headlines above photographs of sickened workers being taken to hospitals in straitjackets. On the other hand, industry had to convince the public that, far from being a generalized threat to their health, poisonings by industrial products could be solved, or at least confined behind the walls of a factory. Occupational health issues were exactly that: problems borne by the workforce but no threat to the public at large. This was part of a broader effort on the part of major corporations to improve their public image and undercut the popular suspicion that they were “soulless” entities that were “greedy and ruthless in their pursuit of profits page 22

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In the face of overwhelming evidence of lead’s dangers, the lead industry was reluctantly willing by the early 1970s to sacrifice lead in paint. Besides, lead paint was accounting for a smaller and smaller share of the lead market. This was not the case with lead in gasoline, and what had once been a limited crisis over workers and children would emerge as a concern about the health of the entire population. In the 19603, lead researchers began to absorb the implications of the work of such writers as Rachel Carson, Barry Commoner, and Paul Ehrlich regarding the fragility of the environment and the dangers posed to humans through the introduction of man-made pesticides and other toxins. As growing cities like Los Angeles, Detroit, and Denver based their transportation systems overwhelmingly on the automobile, the dangers from smog (a term popularized in the 19403 to denote a combination of smoke and fog) brought to public attention the impact of leaded gasoline on air pollution and on the general population.

But even through the 1950s the Lead Industries Association (LIA) insisted that its product presented no problem to the public health. As environmental air pollution gained the attention of state and local governments, the LIA held that attacks on lead were absurd. One paper touted by the LIA claimed, “No theory as to the causation of lead poisoning is too crazy to be brought forward. … A group in Los Angeles had put forward the claim that lead from the exhausts of motor vehicles constituted a menace to the public health.” The LIA mailed out nearly 1,000 copies of the speech because they found it “a most useful means of disseminating sound common sense on this subject.”

Given that in the 1960s the press and the public health community were beginning to pay greater attention to chronic disease caused by long-term exposure to environmental toxins, however, it is not surprising thatattention was drawn to the automobile. The burning of leaded gasoline was quickly pinpointed as a major contributor to smog and air pollution in major cities. The gas-guzzling engine that became a hallmark of the 19505 eight-cylinder tail-finned family car depended upon high-octane gas containing ever-increasing amounts of tetraethyl lead. As of the 19203 the U.S. Public Health Service had capped the tetraethyl lead content of gasoline at 3 cubic centimeters per gallon. But in 1958, under pressure from the automobile industry, that level was raised to 5 cc/gallon. This increase, however, was still below what the Ethyl Corporation and automobile industries’ leaders had requested, in part because Surgeon General Leroy Burney and other officials noted that no good environmental lead pollution study had been conducted since the first tetraethyl lead crisis in the 19203 and that without good evidence it was difficult to make sound public policy. pages 108-109

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DARKNESS AT NOON After World War II the chemical industry proclaimed for itself a special role in America’s newfound affluence. DuPont announced that the American century was made possible by “Better Things for Better Living… through Chemistry.” For over fifteen years, despite particular environmental crises and increased scientific concern about pollution, Americans were fairly hypnotized by a parade of technological advances and remained largely unaware of the ecological and health costs of progress. Most eagerly incorporated the products of the chemical industry into their lives, never thinking that the synthetic chemicals in these products could possibly pose a danger.

Industry understood during the 1950s that the anxiety most Americans felt about the threat of nuclear war and the reality of fallout from atomic testing had the potential to translate into a fear about the toxicity of chemicals. Americans listened to Civil Defense advertising, watched the building of fallout shelters, and participated in air raid drills and “duck and cover” exercises in schools. The vaguely understood effect of unseen radiation on human health raised the specter of unknown dangers posed by human manipulation of the natural environment. The testing of atomic bombs in the Nevada desert destroyed the immediate environment and threatened children-both immediately downwind and thousands of miles away-as dangerous levels of strontium 90 were found in milk sold in upstate New York supermarkets. At any moment these general fears might cause people to wonder about the possible toxicity of chemicals.

Americans remained largely indifferent to pollution from the chemical industry until a tragedy occurred in 1948 in Donora, Pennsylvania. This small factory town near Pittsburgh was enveloped in “a poisonous mix of sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide and metal dust… from the smokestacks from the local zinc smelter where most of the town worked” as an air inversion turned the street dark at noon. “Twenty residents died and half the town’s population-7,000 people-were hospitalized over the next five days with difficulty breathing.” Donora was home to a number of smelters and steel mills, including the American Steel and Wire Company’s zinc works. For five days, a cloud of toxins sat over the town. It was estimated that the air contained between 1,500 and 5,500 micrograms per cubic meter of sulfur dioxide emissions, whereas today’s Clean Air Act mandates 80 mg/m3 as a maximum average. For a brief moment, Americans were shocked and forced to confront the dangers of air pollution.

The following year, undoubtedly in reaction to Donora, the Manufacturing Chemists’ Association (MCA) formed the Air Pollution Abatement Committee. (The MCA, the major trade association for the chemical industry, was established in 1872; by the second half of the twentieth century it represented one hundred seventy-four U.S. companies, responsible for “more than 90 percent of the production capacity of basic industrial chemicals” in this country.) Dudley A. Irwin, representing the Aluminum Company of America, argued in January 1950 that “the repercussions of the Gauley Tunnel episode on silicosis [America’s worst occupational health disaster, which occurred in the early 19303] probably will be dwarfed by the effects of Donora on air pollution. The Donora incident,” he continued,  “has not only made the public air pollution conscious and unduly apprehensive, but also it has advanced opinion with regard to the imposition of restrictive measures by many years.” The implications of this for the legislative arena were clear: “The politicians have not been slow to sense this changed attitude of the public.”[5] But, as Modern Industry magazine put it, “smart plants are cleaning up their exhaust gases right now-before laws or lawsuits start to pinch.” Decrying the lack of information, Irwin reviewed what was known and not known about the effects of industrial air pollution.

While the industry had argued throughout the twentieth century that if you could protect the worker, the public was safe, Irwin wasn’t so sure. Industrial workers “are usually healthy individuals, while the general population includes those who are infirm or chronically ill.” Furthermore, in the factory, workers were “usually exposed to a single contaminant while city air is a mixture of many contaminants, some of which may act synergistically.” Finally, workers were only exposed to toxins “on a part time basis in contrast to the full-time exposure of ordinary citizens.” Even so, Irwin was unwilling to acknowledge that “ordinary air pollution has any significant adverse effect on the health of the general population.”

The MCA developed a program that incorporated its view of nature and the environment as another resource at the disposal of industry. In its “Basic Principles of Legislation,” the association laid out its vision in 1950: “the atmosphere should be regarded as a useful natural resource.” According to the MCA, nature “should be utilizable for dispersion of wastes within its capacity to do so without harm to the surroundings.” Rather than envisioning the atmosphere as a national resource to be protected for the people as a whole, it was simply considered a local resource. Therefore, “air pollution is a local problem,” and the state should only interfere “to enable a particular locality to take action.” This reasoning was part of the industry’s efforts to prepare for fights over threats to its sovereignty. Of particular concern was the U.S. southwest, where the chemical industry had experienced “unprecedented growth.”[9] Similarly, the rapid growth of Los Angeles and its dependence on the automobile raised new worries about smog and its long-term effects on American health and therefore new worries for industry. Smog, in the words of one trade journal, “ceased to be a joke to industrialists.”

Throughout the 19503 the MCA developed a keen awareness of the air pollution issue, closely monitoring national and state legislation. When New Jersey considered a bill to put the state Air Pollution Control Commission in the Department of Health, the MCA’s Air Pollution Abatement Committee sought to have the legislation altered to place it in the Department of Law and Public Safety. Understanding that health was a potent political issue, the MCA sought to depict air pollution as “a nuisance problem and not a health problem.”

When the MCA became concerned about federal air pollution legislation, it met with the Public Health Service “to impress upon the officials that we feel control of air pollution is largely a local matter.” If the purpose of legislation was the “collection of information,” then the MCA would have no objection, but there was to be no federal regulation.  Arguing that there was “no basis for the fear that health is endangered by air pollution” and that air pollution was only “a nuisance,” the MCA believed that the industry should begin a determined program as an “investment in good will.”

In 1956 the MCA participated in a federal-state study of air pollution in Louisville, Kentucky. The industry needed to be on top of information about pollution if it were going to be prepared to counter challenges to its control. Monitoring the study for the MCA were technical personnel from the B. F. Goodrich Chemical Company, the same plant that would, in less than two decades, become the site of the first cancer deaths linked to the plastics industry. It was clear to the study organizers that emissions from the plant were escaping into the general population; the study was designed to identify the frequency and types of emissions that were escaping. As part of the project, “several school children in Louisville’s West End,” a predominantly poor, African American community, were given “sniff-kits,” which were “small bottled samples of many materials used in Rubbertown processes.” The children were taught how to use the kits to identify odors they noticed in the air.

The MCAs state affiliates were less attentive to the looming issues of environmental and air pollution than the national organization. When the MCA approached the Louisiana Chemical Association (LCA), whose state was emerging as a center of the petrochemical industry, about holding a workshop session on air pollution abatement, the LCA declined: “they felt no pressing need for technical assistance on air pollution problems at present.” Even the Air Pollution Abatement Committee believed that such attitudes were “all too typical of the ‘let sleeping dogs lie’ philosophy, likely to lead to frantic ‘too little and too late’ efforts when the pressure for action mounts.”

In 1960, as the MCAs Medical Advisory Committee considered what kind of public face to present, it was clear that its members understood that the field of environmental health had come to encompass both the  environment of the factory as well as the outside world, into which companies were pouring pollutants. Pollution, particularly smokestack emissions and groundwater contamination, were real problems that industry was “doing an improved job” of addressing. The industry’s dilemma was that emphasizing such claims would simply call attention to what had not been done to protect the environment in the past.

Monsanto’s representative, Dr. R. Emmet Kelly, said, “If we claim we are keeping pollution down to low enough levels, we will be asked how we know such levels are low enough.” Unfortunately, he candidly admitted, “there is bound to be pollution.” H. H. Golz, American Cyanamid’s representative, agreed that “it is difficult to prove that certain levels of pollution are not harmful to people. Absence of evidence of harm was not acceptable” in the contemporary social climate. The Enjay Chemical Company’s representative pointed out that “so long as people die from unknown causes, pollution will be blamed.” One way of proving that industry acted responsibly outside the plant, according to Union Carbide’s representative, was to “show what a good job we are doing in industry to prevent the exposure of workers” inside the factory. But this, in turn, would pose other dilemmas. As DuPont’s spokesman noted, critics would “tell us we protect our workers by pumping the pollutants out into the atmosphere and thereby exposing the general public.” Golz worried that any statements made by General J. E. Hull, the MCA’s president, could be used as an excuse to increase government regulation of the chemical industry and that any admission of responsibility for “a public health problem” should be accompanied by a “go-slow policy by government.”  Pages 140-144

******

The American Petroleum Institute (API), the trade association of the portion of the chemical industry that was primarily concerned with petroleum refining, directly addressed the growing fear that the industry’s air pollution was linked to serious diseases. Seeking a way to reconceptualize the health issue as one of annoyance and nuisance, John C. Ruddock, a former lead researcher and the chair of the API’s Sub Committee on Atmospheric Pollutants, argued repeatedly that with the exception of Donora, London, and Meuse, Belgium (where air inversions resulted in many deaths), no one had been able to prove “aggravation of such diseases as asthma, tuberculosis, bronchitis, etc., nor does air pollution particularly affect the aged or very young.” He agreed that air pollution should be reduced. And he was “sympathetic with all those who do not like ‘smog.’ As true Americans, we do not like our rights infringed upon, whether it is the inability to see as far as we desire, or whether it is the discomfort and eye-smarting that occurs with air pollution.” Certainly, there were many “poisonous and noxious fumes” in polluted air. But, they were dangerous only when they exceeded “a certain density and are either inspired or ingested.” The API members assured themselves as well as the government that whatever the claims about the effects of air pollution, “we have found no single case, nor have we found any pathological effect attributable to atmospheric pollutants per se.” page 145

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EVERY VENTURE INVOLVES SOME RISK

In early 1962, coinciding with the impending publication of Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, the MCA’s Public Relations Advisory Committee expressed a sense of “urgency of the situation confronting us.” There was a “steadily intensifying assault on the right of business management to manage.” While this assault came in part from organized labor, management believed that the more general impetus came from the federal government, which was pursuing “this line because it is the public’s desire that it do so.” The committee recommended a campaign to “educate,” “inform” and “persuade” the American public about what industry was doing for them. They believed that without such a propaganda campaign government would adopt policies that would “result in the constriction and ultimate strangulation of the economic and social systems under which our free institutions have survived and prospered.” They worried that “once the abyss [of government interference] has been reached” it would be too late to change direction.

The MCA introduced into its argument the issue of acceptable risk. “Whether public health officials will admit it or not,” Dr. E. O. Colwell of the Aluminum Company of America told the Air Pollution Abatement Committee, “there is a place for the term ‘calculated risk’ in this human health business.” To the question “What price were we willing to pay for absolutely clean air?” he answered that it was both impractical and unnecessary “to make the air so clean that the most sensitive individuals will be comfortable if such is not economically sound.” He argued that “the public we must satisfy would better risk a few cases of bronchitis or even emphysema than to risk mental and physical ills that would accompany the economic failure of an industry, a community, or a country.” For the industry, as well as Colwell personally, public health could not be the paramount concern of the industry. The economic interests of the chemical industry were synonymous with the interests of the country.[21] The next year industry was pleased that the Clean Air Act encouraged states to initiate air pollution controls, permitting the federal government to act only at the state’s request. Environmental historian Hal Rothman suggests that a “lackluster enforcement record followed,” with “only eleven abatement cases filed between 1965 and 1970.”

Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring, published in September 1962, sounded a loud alarm over the chemical industry. Carson’s biographer, Linda Lear, has written that industry and others recognized Silent Spring as “a fundamental social critique of a gospel of technological progress.” Some quarters were so threatened by Carson’s book that they felt the need to attack her personally. Ezra Taft Benson, the secretary of agriculture in the Eisenhower administration and later a leading elder of the Mormon Church, is credited with barbed remarks about Carson. He asked “why a spinster with no children was so concerned about genetics,” suggesting that it was because she was “probably a communist.” But it was the National Agricultural Chemicals Association, the trade association for pesticide manufacturers, and the MCA that led the attack on Carson and her writings, “sending out a steady stream of brochures and bulletins denouncing things that Carson had never said and circulating ‘fact kits’ to members.”

Almost immediately, the MCA began organizing to get a firmer hold on the broad issue of environmental pollution. Recognizing that an attack on Carson was not sufficient to regain public confidence, the board of directors voted to join with the National Agricultural Chemicals Association to wage a public relations campaign that emphasized the “constructive role played by chemicals in the field of environmental health.”[25] As one of the board’s officers stated in a general review of the MCA’s program, the “public relations program on environmental health… is currently concerned with the problems created for the industry by such books as Miss Rachel Carson’s ‘Silent Spring.'” They feared that the public would accept “the implication that the chemical industry has no sense of public responsibility and is motivated solely by a desire for profits.” The MCA set up an Ad Hoc Technical Committee, developed contacts with other trade associations concerned about increasing environmental consciousness, and produced a “large volume of informational material” for consumers, scientists, politicians, and educators.[27] An Ad Hoc Planning Committee on Environmental Health was established in April 1963 to coordinate the defensive and offensive measures to carry out the “proper responsibilities for chemical industry leadership in this increasingly significant area.”  The need to “get going” was essential “in light of mounting pressures for action, with the strong likelihood of a greatly accelerated program with or without industry cooperation.” pages 145-147

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Not only were there differences of opinion regarding the extent and nature of the industry’s responsibility, but there also were different opinions about how to handle joint government-industry-sponsored research. Historically, industry had seen government as a partner that provided legitimacy and credibility to industry research conclusions. The debacle of the 1920s tetraethyl lead crisis was a case in point: the government had allowed the industry to control the nature of the research and its timetable. By the 1960s this sort of overt manipulation of the process was less easily achieved. When the MCA embarked on a number of joint research enterprises with the Public Health Service and other government agencies to assess the effect of air pollution on public health in the 1960s, it accepted that it could not gain complete control over the research. Although the MCA was unable to control the release of data resulting from such joint research efforts, it did reach an agreement with the government not to “include ‘interpretation of project findings'” in any such release. While the industry was not given the right of final approval, as it had been in the 1920s, it was still able to stifle adverse interpretations of joint government-industry research.

In 1969 the MCA did finally acknowledge that air pollution was a health problem and not merely a nuisance, but still the industry downplayed the dangers. The association agreed that some people already suffering from respiratory disease could be “adversely affected” by air pollution, but it argued that people in good health, “even though temporarily discomforted,” would quickly recover from acute exposure to chemical pollution “without residual damage.” The MCA posited that it was “unlikely” that air pollution was “a sole or principal cause of any disease entity” and that at worst it could accelerate the death of those previously ill, particularly among older people. But the MCA conceded no clear health risk from long-term exposure, no relationship between allergic asthma and air pollution, and no clear relationship in the United States between bronchitis and air pollution. The association agreed with a statement in a Health, Education, and Welfare Department report that said, “The association between long-term residence in polluted areas and chronic disease morbidity and mortality is somewhat conjectural.”  page 154

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Air pollution from wood stoves kills 2 million, affects health of 3 billion

13 Oct 2011.  Inefficient Developing World Stoves Contribute to 2 Million Deaths a Year. ScienceDaily.com

Smoke emitting stoves cause so much indoor air pollution that at least 2 million people die every year from them, and affects the health of another 3 billion people, almost half the world’s population. Resulting diseases include pneumonia, lung cancer, COPD, and any disease a cigarette smoker is likely to get (i.e. heart attack, stroke, cancer, etc). Women and children are the most affected since they spend the most time indoors.

Inefficient wood stoves lead to deforestation, desertification, more carbon dioxide, and environmental degradation (i.e. topsoil loss, soil fertility reduction, etc). Women are also raped on their usually long journeys to get wood.

Other suspected health risks:  cardiovascular disease, asthma, and tuberculosis.

Journal Reference: W. J. Martin, R. I. Glass, J. M. Balbus, F. S. Collins. A Major Environmental Cause of Death. Science, 2011; 334 (6053): 180 DOI: 10.1126/science.1213088

Related stories

Bilger, Burkhard. 21 Dec 2009. Hearth Surgery.  The Quest for a Stove that Can Save the World.  NewYorker.

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Natural Gas pros and cons

Natural gas is the ideal electricity generating source:

  • No sulfur or mercury like coal
  • No particulates like diesel fuels
  • Isn’t radioactive like uranium
  • It’s always “on” unlike intermittent sources such as wind and solar
  • Natural gas power plants are essential to the grid because they can be ramped up and throttled down quickly to keep electric load constant. The more renewable energy you add, the more natural gas peaking plants need to also be added to the grid to balance intermittent, unreliable, and unpredictable alternative sources like wind and solar. As of 2013, all energy storage systems except pumped hydro require more energy to build and maintain than the energy they can store and deliver.

1) Currently it’s used for about 25% of our energy (USA), mainly for electricity, heating, and cooking.

2) But we don’t have enough natural gas left to substitute for oil – natural gas production peaked about 1970 and has a much steeper depletion rate than oil. So even though President Obama recently said we have “100 years of natural gas”, it’s not clear that we can drill enough to keep up with the incredibly fast rate of depletion of the gas released by fracking.

Source: Colorado Geological Survey

3) We could import natural gas in liquefied form (LNG), but that requires billions of dollars of large processing plants and special ocean-going tankers. All of the proposed new LNG facilities have been prevented by communities worried about the explosive potential of the LNG facilities and ships.

4) Natural gas can’t be used by most vehicles, though there are Fed Ex and other vehicle fleets running on natural gas currently. It can take up to 8 hours to fill a tank up with gas – it needs to be forced in and pressurized to be dense enough to power a vehicle.

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Flow Rate Posts

Interview of Richard G. Miller by Steve Andrews in Peak Oil Review.  Feb 2014.

Q: You refer to the widely used phrase—“it’s not so much the size of the tank as it is the size of the tap.”  Care to comment on what the bottom line message is there?

Miller: Nobody should be misled by discussion of the size of global reserves.  What matters is the speed at which you can get them out, and that speed is limited by physics and engineering and money.  Very basic stuff.  If you really really wanted to get the existing reserves out faster, it would cost too much to buy.  So there is a rational size to the tap that you can have.

Q: You were quoted as saying we can’t grow the supply at the average rate of 1.5% per year at today’s prices.

Miller:  To grow by 1.5% per year, I don’t think it would be long before you got up into the $180 range.  And that’s a price that breaks economies.

Dr. Richard G. Miller, trained as a geologist, joined BP as a geochemist in 1985. He studied peak oil matters since 1991, when BP asked him the following year to devise a wholly new way to estimate global oil resources.  In 2000, he was tasked with creating an in-house projection of global future oil demand and supply to 2030.  The model he created was updated annually through 2008; then the effort was disbanded and he moved on to his present work consulting on peak oil. Most recently, Dr. Miller co-authored The Future of Oil Supply, which was published by The Royal Society (on-line December 2, 2013), in a thematic issue of Philosophical Transactions entirely devoted to future world oil supply; he also served as co-editor of that 12-article publication.

 

 

Jan 9, 2008  AN INTERVIEW WITH MATTHEW SIMMONS – The Casey Files – http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/casey/2008/0109.html

the IEA mid-term report claimed that oil demand will outstrip production causing a supply crunch starting in 2010 that will worsen until 2012.

We know that flow rates are what we measure to understand whether we’re at peak or not. In M. King Hubbert’s work, peak oil is calculated using the total resource base, but your point is that we may still have oil that we’re just not able to produce in an economic way.

MS : If it’s in the ground and you can barely get it out, it’s as irrelevant as me looking out over Penobscot Bay and saying “There’s a vast amount of hydrates about a thousand miles from here, a thousand feet underwater.” Well, so what? That’s not useful energy.

BC: If it takes more energy to dig up that last barrel of oil than it produces, then there’s no sense in trying.

MS: And another important concept is that if you’re lucky enough to find a highly pressurized field and it turns out to be condensate, which is sometimes called natural motor gasoline, you can literally bypass the refinery – because it’s been baked in the ground – and put it right in your car. It doesn’t run perfectly, but it runs.

With the heavy oil out of Canada, you have to expend energy to make it ooze out of the ground, and once it’s oozed out of the ground, you still have totally unusable oil.

You still have to go through a fairly hefty process of upgrading, and then finally diluting it with high-quality oil before it can flow. So one is total junk oil, and the other is the Rolls Royce of petroleum.

BC: The world needs to understand that we’ve been using up the Rolls Royces first because they’re more available. The harder-to-find and harder-to-refine stuff is what’s left. I think that’s misunderstood.

MS: Oh, it’s totally misunderstood. Sour, heavy oil is really not worth very much.

BC: We’re probably in more serious a situation than most people would realize, and it’s no better with natural gas. Switching gears for a moment, do you think the rise of LNG will be enough to keep up with declines in natural gas discovery and subsequently in natural gas production?

MS: Well, first of all, the problem with LNG is that if we try to develop a spot market out of LNG, the odds of it ending in bankruptcy are about 90%.

BC: Who goes bankrupt?

MS: All the players. The cost to produce and distribute LNG is so high that to make LNG work in any sort of financial reality, you would need a 25- or 30-year guaranteed supply. And then you can amortize it over 25 or 30 years. If you’re going on a spot supply, you’ve got to write it off over 10 years and then you’ll need $40 per million BTU to make the economics work. The other thing is that about 35% of the hydrocarbon value gets chewed up in the process of cryogenically freezing natural gas, transporting it, and then re-gassing it.

BC: In your opinion then, LNG is not an economically viable solution. We won’t do it.

MS: We shouldn’t do it. But it turns out that high-quality natural gas – sweet, high-quality natural gas – is just like sweet oil. It’s basically in decline.

BC: And therefore also harder to find, despite our original hope of about a decade ago. Clean energy was going to fix everything through natural gas for electricity and everything else.

MS: Yes, and using natural gas for electricity turned out to be an unbelievably stupid decision. Using electricity for heat was equally stupid. Natural gas should be refined to one use and one use only, and that’s creating instantaneous and high-efficiency heat.

BC: In one of your presentations, you have a very memorable clip of a ration book from World War II. Are we headed towards rationing and if so, between here and there, what are your estimates on what the price of energy might do, especially if we’re hit by any ugly political events?

MS: I try to stay agnostic about political events because they’re unpredictable. If you took a blackboard and filled it up with every political event that could impact the supply of energy, not a single one of them is positive. All political events are just unforeseen black swans.

MS: Our firm has daily recommendations, and I basically stay totally out of that. I tend to buy a stock and then hold it for five or ten years, unless I think that I’ve made a mistake. And I tend to think more about which sectors to avoid or be interested in to look at.

One of the things that really amazes me about the stock market and their love/hate relationship with energy is that of the current weighting of institutional investors in the market, the S&P weighting of energy is about 9%. Institutional ownership comprises about half of that. What’s interesting is that about two-thirds of the ownership is in the major oil companies, which is the one group that I would avoid like the plague. So the market is invested in the wrong area – the major oil companies.

BC: They haven’t been able to keep up their reserves.

MS: Yeah, and they can’t. Their decline rates are so high and they operate such old, mature basins that they can’t drill enough wells, and they don’t have places to drill wells, and they don’t have a sustainable strategy. So, in that respect, the oil service companies are the savior of all the problems.

BC: Specifically?

MS: The service industry is Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB ), Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI ), Transocean (NYSE: RIG ) and others. There’s about 150 of them and, like in any sector, some of them are very poorly run companies, and some of them are outstandingly well run. What I really think is going to be the most active area is West Africa, or Libya, or that region. You can sort of name your scenario, and then you can pick the handful of service companies to give you good exposure.

In the E & P business, you get companies like Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK ), for instance, who have an unbelievably high talent, quality senior management, and they basically figured out a decade ago that the only way you grow production is by monopolizing drilling rigs and drilling like crazy. And so they’ve had double-digit production growth in their natural gas while almost every one of their peer group is in decline. I guess that’s one thing that I would observe in forty years of energy investment banking is that management matters.

==========================

Here’s another article on FLOW

http://www.energybulletin.net/39308.html

Published on 10 Jan 2008 by Energy Bulletin. Archived on 20 Jan 2008.

Peak oil: Why is it so difficult to explain/understand?

by Martin Payne

<snip>

OK, here is the key take-away:

Due to the physics of the flow of oil through rock, a field’s (or a country’s, or the world’s) maximum oil production RATE is not arbitrary but is dependent on the RESERVES:

SIZE (how big is the field in terms of area and thickness?) AGE (is the field newly discovered/produced, or is has it been producing for 40 years?) QUALITY (how well does the oil flow through the rock?) Examples:

All of the world’s largest oil fields – Ghawar, Cantarell, Burgan and Daquing – have excellent SIZE and excellent QUALITY … but their AGE is old! Hence, all of these (except possibly Ghawar) are in decline (their RATE is declining each day). The Athabasca tar sands, on the other hand, have excellent SIZE, they are essentially “new” in AGE (relatively little compared to the RESERVES has been produced so far), but they have the very poorest QUALITY – the oil is so thick it won’t flow and must be melted with heat, dissolved with solvents or mined. Most who take the “no Peak Oil” (or no Peak Oil until 2030 and then an “undulating plateau”) side of the debate speak of RESERVES. They don’t often address the difficult topic of trying to explain where the RATE will come from.

Recently this author attended a trade conference concerning “unconventional resources”. “Unconventional resources” is another way of saying “difficult to produce at a high rate, but prevalent in a given area”. For the most part, it’s what we’re left with, especially in the United States . So, a representative from IHS (who owns CERA) gave a talk and presented, among other things, maps showing trillions of barrels – worldwide – of bitumen, tar sands and heavy oil. Afterwards he smugly said, “WELL, I guess there are no supporters of PEAK OIL in this room!

With respect to oil production RATE (which is what Peak Oil is all about), he may as well have been showing a map of coal resources.

What he didn’t explain was the fact that Canada , despite having huge tar sands RESERVES of 188 billion barrels (or call it a trillion barrels, it really doesn’t matter), is currently producing oil from those tar sands at a RATE of about 1.1 million barrels per day. And this after a Herculean effort and tens of billions of dollars invested!

The Canadian tar sands producers have a roadmap for increasing the production RATE from those huge RESERVES to a total of … 3 million barrels per day, by 2015! That’s an increase of only another 1.9 million barrels per day, but over 7 years, and with additional tens of billions of dollars injected!

So, that huge amount of RESERVES is limited in RATE because it is of the poorest QUALITY.

To put this in perspective and show why it is important – why Peak Oil is important – take a look at the second largest field in the world, Cantarell, in Mexico . In early 2006, PEMEX announced that Cantarell Field was about to go into decline, for the first time ever. In fact, they projected that this field that produced 2 million barrels per day of Mexico ’s total 3.4 million barrels per day (end of 2005) would be down to between 1.5 and 0.5 million barrels per day by the end of 2008! Now, at the end of 2007, it is already down to 1.3 – 1.5 million barrel per day! So, if it finishes 2008 at 800,000 barrels per day, that is a loss of 1.2 million barrels per day, over just 2 years.

Compare this with the Canadian tar sands production increase of only 1.9 million barrels per day over 7 years – after a huge incremental effort. Factor in the depletion going on in most every field around the world – and you have an idea of the problem at hand, and a better understanding of Peak Oil. Among other things, huge RESERVES of poor QUALITY oil are not going to be able to provide the RATE of production necessary to stem the declines from the giant high QUALITY fields that are now old in AGE, much less continue to increase our total RATE.

In summary, Peak Oil is about RATE. And RATE is dependent on the SIZE, AGE and QUALITY of the RESERVES.

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