Why do leaders & the public deny peak oil & limits to growth?

Preface.  It’s strange that we’re on the cusp of Peak Oil, and yet the only existential threat you ever hear about is Climate Change. The New York Times has mentioned climate change over 15,000 times the past 5 years, and “peak oil” just nine, mostly to say it didn’t happen and never will.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA 2020) shows conventional and unconventional oil peaked in 2018. The 2018 International Energy Agency report (IEA 2018), predicts there will likely be oil shortages in 4-6 years because we haven’t found or drilled much, and fracking will peak around 2025.

Congress and the military, especially the military, are very much aware of the energy crisis.  For example, here are a few posts from congressional house and senate hearings and the military. But the vast majority of leaders have said nothing, or even deny peak oil and other future calamities.  Why?

 

Related posts:

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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1) Political and economic leaders actually believe economists who say that higher oil prices will result in more supplies.  This is a core belief of capitalism. Energy and resources are nowhere to be found in neoclassical economics. Somehow money, which you can’t burn in your gas tank, is the fountain of endless growth, and implies an infinite planet, and when backed against a wall, economists say we’ll go to other planets and bring back stuff. Since that’s obviously not true, I suspect the goal is to justify looting the earth of as many valuables as possible.

2) As a German military peak oil study stated (BTC 2010),when investors realize Peak Oil is upon us, global stock markets will crash since it will be obvious that growth is no longer possible and investors will never get their money back.

A whistleblower at the IEA alleged that oil reserves had been overstated, and that the IEA had downplayed the lowering rates of production because it feared panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further.

‘Politicians are terrified of mentioning peak oil,’ says Chris Skrebowski, director of Peak Oil Consulting and former editor of industry magazine Petroleum Review. ‘They are frightened of the social and financial reactions. Peak oil has been placed on the pile marked “too difficult” (Rowe).

Steven Chu, former Secretary of Energy and director of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, “knows all about peak oil, but he can’t talk about it. If the government announced that peak oil was threatening our economy, Wall Street would crash. He just can’t say anything about it,” according to David Fridley, who used to work for him (Bland 2009).

3) Political (and religious) leaders gain votes, wealth, and power by telling people what they want to hear.  Several politicians have told me privately that people like to hear good news and that politicians who bring bad news don’t get re-elected.  “Don’t worry, be happy” is a vote getter.  A sure -fire way to not get elected is discussing carrying capacity, exponential growth, die-off, extinction, or population control with the electorate. There’s only a minority of intelligent, college-educated people who are scientifically literate.  And the issue isn’t a sound-bite. Convincing the minority would take hours, if not weeks of time about a topic too grim for most people to want to pay attention to.

4) As Richard Heinberg has pointed out, there’s a national survival interest in being the Last Nation Standing.  He wrote:  “I thought that world leaders would want to keep their nations from collapsing. They must be working hard to prevent currency collapse, financial system collapse, food system collapse, social collapse, environmental collapse, and the onset of general, overwhelming misery—right? But no, that’s not what the evidence suggests. Increasingly I am forced to conclude that the object of the game that world leaders are actually playing is not to avoid collapse; it’s simply to postpone it a while so as to be the last nation to go down, so yours can have the chance to pick the others’ carcasses before it meets the same fate.”   February 2010.  China or the U.S.: Which Will Be the Last Nation Standing?

5) It would be political suicide to bring up the real problem of Peak Oil and have no solution to offer besides conservation and consuming less.

I first became aware of this in 2006 when the city and county of San Francisco published a peak oil resolution and later a peak oil task force report in 2009. David Fridley, Dennis Brumm, and others in our peak oil group (started in 2004 in Oakland) worked with the board of supervisors on this.  At some point SF supervisor Ross Mirkarimi said “Wait. You’re telling me that there are no solutions to fix peak oil? I can’t run for office with that!”

Kjell Aleklett, professor of Professor of Physics at Uppsala University in Sweden, points out that one of the failures of democracy is that “It is very difficult for any politician to admit that something is wrong, and that we might need to do something about it. If they were to do this, another politician would come along and say, ‘There’s no problem; vote for me and we can carry on as we are’.”

The “solution” of both parties is Endless Growth, or  “Shop Until You Drop” and “Drill, Baby, Drill” to get out of the current economic and energy crises.  Capitalism ends when growth is no longer possible, all that our leaders can do is try to keep the gain going as long as possible, and not end while they’re in office.  Since golden parachutes and astronomical pay regardless of performance typifies most corporations, there’s less at stake for CEO’s and other economic “leaders”.

There’s also the risk of creating a panic and social disorder if the situation were made utterly clear — that the carrying capacity of the United States is somewhere between 100 million (Pimentel) and 250 million (Smil) without fossil fuels, like the Onion’s parody “Scientists: One-Third Of The Human Race Has To Die For Civilization To Be Sustainable, So How Do We Want To Do This?

There’s no solution to peak oil, except to consume less in all areas of life, limit immigration, and above all, encourage women to have zero or one child, which is not acceptable to political leaders or corporations, who depend on growth for their survival.

Meanwhile, too many problems are getting out of hand on a daily basis at local, state, and national levels.  All that matters to politicians is the next election.  So who’s going to work on a future problem with no solution?  Jimmy Carter is perceived as having lost partly due to asking Americans to sacrifice for the future (i.e. put on a sweater).

I first became aware of the intersection of politics and peak oil at the Denver 2005 Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference.  Denver Mayor Hickenlooper, now governor of Colorado, pointed out that one of his predecessors lost the mayoral election because he didn’t keep the snow plows running after a heavy snow storm.  He worried about how he’d keep snow plows, garbage collection, and a host of other city services running as energy declined.

A Boulder city council member at this conference told us he had hundreds of issues and constituents to deal with on a daily basis, no way did he have time to spend on an issue beyond the next election.

Finally, Congressman Roscoe Bartlett, head of the peak oil caucus in the House of Representatives, told us that there was no solution, and he was angry that we’d blown 25 years even though the government knew peak was coming.  His plan was to relentlessly reduce our energy demand by 5% per year, to stay under the depletion rate of declining oil.  But he didn’t believe in  efficiency as a solution, which doesn’t work due to Jevons paradox.

The only solution that would mitigate suffering is to mandate that women bear only one child.  Fat chance of that ever happening when even birth control is controversial, and Catholics are outraged that all health care plans are now required to cover the cost of birth control pills.  Congressman Bartlett, in a small group discussion after his talk, told us that population was the main problem, but that he and other politicians didn’t dare mention it.  He said that exponential growth would undo any reduction in demand we could make, and gave this example:  if we have 250 years left of reserves in coal, and we turn to coal to replace oil, increasing our use by 2% a year — a very modest rate of growth considering what a huge amount is needed to replace oil — then the reserve would only last 85 years.  If we liquefy it, then it would only last 50 years, because it takes a lot of energy to do that.

Bartlett was speaking about 250 years of coal reserves back in 2005.  Now we know that the global energy from coal may have peaked last year, in 2011 (Patzek) or will soon in 2015 (Zittel). Other estimates range as far as 2029 to 2043.  Heinberg and Fridley say that “we believe that it is unlikely that world energy supplies can continue to meet projected demand beyond 2020.” (Heinberg).

6) Everyone who understands the situation is hoping The Scientists Will Come up With Something.  Including the Scientists. 

And even many of the science-educated don’t have a clue — natural resources, ecology, and energy was not their field of study. I didn’t want to ruin anyone’s vacation on a rafting trip down the Tatshenshini-Alsek river in 2003, but on  the last day of the trip I explained the situation to an astronomer, and he said in great shock, “But there has to be an alternative to oil!”  It had never occurred to him that solar, wind, geothermal, and so on couldn’t replace oil.  Which doesn’t shock me, it didn’t occur to me either in college because the alternate technology group and engineering students fooled around with wind, solar, and so on.

Scientists would like to win a Nobel prize and need funding.  But researchers in energy resources know what’s at stake with climate change and peak oil and are as scared as the rest of us.  U.C.Berkeley scientists are also aware of the negative environmental impacts of biofuels, and have chosen to concentrate on a politically feasible strategy of emphasizing lack of water to prevent large programs in this from being funded (Fingerman).  They’re also working hard to prevent coal fired power plants from supplying electricity to California by recommending natural gas replacement plants instead, as well as expanding the grid, taxing carbon, energy efficiency, nuclear power, geothermal, wind, and so on — see http://rael.berkeley.edu/projects for what else some of UCB’s RAEL program is up to.  Until a miracle happens, scientists and some enlightened policy makers are trying to extend the age of oil, reduce greenhouse gases, and so on.  But with the downside of Hubbert’s curve so close, and the financial system liable to crash again soon given the debt and lack of reforms, I don’t know how long anyone can stretch things out.

Alan Overton of the American Mining Congress said that “the American people have forgotten one important fact: It takes stuff to make things.” The basic problem is that even scientists cannot create something out of nothing. Minerals and fossil energy resources on which we are so dependent, do not reproduce themselves. They do not grow. But human population does. There must be raw material with which to work. The idea that science will come to the rescue in some fashion is a popular public placebo.”

7) The 1% can’t justify their wealth or the current economic system once the pie stops expanding and starts to shrink. The financial crisis will be a handy way to explain why people are getting poorer on the down side of peak oil too, delaying panic perhaps.

Other evidence that politicians know how serious the situation is, but aren’t saying anything, are Congressman Roscoe Bartlett’s youtube videos (Urban Danger).  He’s the Chairman of the peak oil caucus in the House of Representatives, and he’s saying “get out of dodge” to those in the know.  He’s educated all of the representatives in the House, but he says that peak oil “won’t be on their front burner until there’s an oil shock”.

8) Less than one percent of our elected leaders have degrees in science.  They don’t have a clue — they studied law, economics, history, political science and other soft subjects, but know very little about ecology, laws of physics and thermodynamics, biodiversity, and so on. Nor do they have time to read since they’re so busy fund raising. The vast majority of political and economic leaders don’t have a clue.

9) Politicians and corporate leaders probably didn’t get as far as they did without being (techno) optimists, and really do believe the Scientists Will Come Up With Something.   I fear that scientists are going to take a lot of the blame as things head South, even though there’s nothing they can do to change the laws of physics and thermodynamics.

Barrack Obama’s energy plan in 2008 depended on a mix of wind, solar, and biofuels to make us independent of foreign oil. In his third presidential debate in Hempstead, NY, on October 15,2008 he said:  “I think that in 10 years we can reduce our dependence so that we no longer have to import oil from the Middle East or Venezuela. I think that’s a realistic time frame.” In 2009, Al Gore declared that we can produce, “100 percent of electricity from renewable and truly clean carbon-free sources within 10 years.”

Chris Nelder says that “We trust narratives that fit our emotions, associations and experiences, rather than actively assessing the evidence. This is why the peak-oil story gained currency in the press in 2008, when prices for oil and gasoline shot up — it fitted in with our experiences. When prices fell, the story faded. Similarly, extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes capture the public’s attention in a way that decades of warnings about global warming have failed to do”. (Nelder)

10) But most of them probably do know actually, at least that’s my impression from reading House and Senate hearings.  They’re greatly concerned about energy security, and I bet it keeps some of them awake at night.  Many of our leaders have known since the 1970s energy crises that there’s no comparable alternative energy ready to replace fossil fuels.

Here’s an excerpt from President Jimmy Carter’s speech in 1977 — why didn’t  we listen to him?  “Tonight I want to have an unpleasant talk with you about a problem unprecedented in our history. With the exception of preventing war, this is the greatest challenge our country will face during our lifetimes. The energy crisis has not yet overwhelmed us, but it will if we do not act quickly. It is a problem we will not solve in the next few years, and it is likely to get progressively worse through the rest of this century. We must not be selfish or timid if we hope to have a decent world for our children and grandchildren…. This difficult effort will be the “moral equivalent of war” — except that we will be uniting our efforts to build and not destroy…. The world has not prepared for the future. During the 1950s, people used twice as much oil as during the 1940s. During the 1960s, we used twice as much as during the 1950s. And in each of those decades, more oil was consumed than in all of mankind’s previous history…. Now we have a choice. But if we wait, we will live in fear of embargoes. We could endanger our freedom as a sovereign nation to act in foreign affairs. Within ten years we would not be able to import enough oil — from any country, at any acceptable price. We will not be ready to keep our transportation system running with smaller, more efficient cars and a better network of buses, trains and public transportation. We will feel mounting pressure to plunder the environment. We will have a crash program to build more nuclear plants, strip-mine and burn more coal, and drill more offshore wells than we will need if we begin to conserve now. Inflation will soar, production will go down, people will lose their jobs. Intense competition will build up among nations and among the different regions within our own country….”

To extend the oil age as long as possible, the USA went the military path rather than a “Manhattan Project” of research and building up grid infrastructure, railroads, sustainable agriculture, increasing home and car fuel efficiency, tax incentives to have fewer children, lower immigration levels, and other obvious actions. I believe that’s because Project Independence showed there were no replacements, as has every study commissioned since then.

The Presidents of the United States know about the Peak Oil and other resources.  Representative Roscoe Barlett, mentioned above, formed a Peak Oil Caucus in the House of Representatives that educated congressional members.  First secretary of energy James R. Schlesinger, Matt Simmons, Department of Energy 2005 “Peak Oil” study, Robert L. Hirsch, current science advisor John Holdren, and many other scientists have informed Presidents Bush and Obama about peak oil and the implications.  Since they don’t have a solution and announcing the problem would bring on an instant Great Depression as the stock market crashed and people panicked — why on earth would they say anything?  It’s like shouting “Fire” in a crowded theater.

Instead, we’ve spent trillions of dollars on defense and the military to keep the oil flowing, the Straits of Hormuz open, and invade oil-producing countries.  Being so much further than Europe, China, and Russia from the Middle East, where there’s not only the most remaining oil, but the easiest oil to get out at the lowest cost ($20-22 OPEC vs $60-80 rest-of-world per barrel), is a huge disadvantage.  I think the military route was chosen in the 70s to maintain our access to Middle East oil and prevent challenges from other nations.  Plus everyone benefits by our policing the world and keeping the lid on a world war over energy resources, perhaps that’s why central banks keep lending us money.

Van Jones once said “People say that I am hard core about some of this stuff because I have been to Davos, and I’ve sat with Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Tony Blair, and Nancy Pelosi. I’ve sat with all these people who we think are in charge, and they don’t know what to do. Take that in: they don’t know what to do! You think you’re scared? You think you’re terrified? They have the Pentagon’s intelligence, they have every major corporation’s input; Shell Oil that has done this survey and study around the peak oil problem. You think we’ve got to get on the Internet and say, “Peak oil!” because the system doesn’t know about it? They know, and they don’t know what to do. And they are terrified that if they do anything they’ll loose their positions. So they keep juggling chickens and chainsaws and hope it works out just like most of us everyday at work.” (Van Jones)

11) If the public were convinced climate change were real and demanded alternative energy, it would become clear pretty quickly that we didn’t have any alternatives.  Already Californians are seeing public television shows and newspaper articles about why it’s so difficult to build enough wind, solar, and so on to meet the mandated 33% renewable energy sources by 2020.

For example, last night I saw a PBS program on the obstacles to wind power in Marin county, on the other side of the Golden Gate bridge. Difficulties cited were lack of storage for electricity, NIMBYism, opposition from the Audubon society over bird kills, wind blows at night when least needed, the grid needs expansion, and most wind is not near enough to the grid to be connected to it.  But there was no mention of Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) or the scale of how many windmills you’d need to have.  So you could be left with the impression that these problems with wind could be overcome.

I don’t see any signs of the general public losing optimism yet.  I gave my “Peak Soil” talk to a group recently of very educated people, and to my great surprise realized they weren’t worried until my talk, partly because so they weren’t aware of the Hirsch 2005 “liquid fuels” crisis concept, nor the scale of what fossil fuels do for us.   I felt really bad, I’ve never spoken to a group before that wasn’t aware of the problem. I wished I were a counselor as well.  The only thing I could think of to console them was to say that running out of fossil fuels was a good thing — we will soon be forced by geological shortages and consequent political unrest to stop burning so much fossil fuel, which means better odds we and many other species won’t be driven extinct from climate change.

12) Since peak oil began in 2005 –we’ve been on a plateau since then — there’s less urgency to do something about climate change for many leaders, because they assume, or hope, that the remaining fossil fuels won’t trigger a runaway greenhouse. But it might – changes can be abrupt and non-linear.  There’s are no carbon free alternative liquid fuels, let alone a liquid fuel we can burn in our existing combustion engines, which were designed to use very specific oil recipes (i.e. diesel #2).  There’s no time left to build an electric transportation system, which would not work for reasons explained in my book “When Trains Stop running”.  And since electricity generation from windmills, solar, nuclear, etc., depends on oil from mineral extraction to final delivery, these contraptions will not outlast the age of oil.  Batteries are too expensive for all vehicles, and too large and heavy for trucks or locomotives, and require a revolutionary breakthrough that may never happen.

13) Some hope that denying climate change dill divert attention from the more immediate threat of peak oil.   I’m guessing their motivation is to keep our oil-based nation going as long as possible by preventing a stock market crash, panic, social disorder, maintaining a military to protect us and intervene in the Middle East to keep the oil flowing as long as possible, and so on so that we’re the Last Nation Standing (#4)

14) Richard Heinberg writes “Peakists within the oil industry are usually technical staff (usually geologists, seldom economists, and never PR professionals) and are only free to speak out on the subject once they’ve retired. The industry has two big reasons to hate peak oil. First, company stock prices are tied to the value of booked oil reserves; if the public (and government regulators) were to become convinced that those reserves were problematic, the companies’ ability to raise money would be seriously compromised—and oil companies need to raise lots of money these days to find and produce ever-lower-quality resources. It’s thus in the interest of companies to maintain an impression of (at least potential) abundance.”

And as Gail Tverberg often points out in her blog ourfiniteworld.com, low oil prices prevent oil companies from drilling or even looking for more oil. So they definitely don’t want peakists driving their stock prices down by talking about this.  Yet even when oil prices go high, it doesn’t last, and the economy collapses and drives oil prices low again. She believes that this is how peak oil collapse may play out — with low oil prices, not high prices as everyone expects (Tverberg 2018).

15) There’s plenty of misinformation out there, plenty of rosy, cornucopian “we’ve got plenty of oil” projections from all kinds of experts.  Why wouldn’t you believe them?  If I hadn’t joined peak oil forums, it’s unlikely I would have ever stumbled on the information to counter the Wall Street economic view of the world (see my book list and energy topics). People who understand the problem of limited resources are labeled “pessimists”, not realists.  Daniel Yergin, of Cambridge Associates (CERA), is the poster boy for calming worries about energy supplies.

16)  Tariel Morrigan, in “Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization” puts the problem this way: “Announcing peak oil may be akin to shouting “Fire!” in a crowded theater, except that the burning theater has no exits”. Morrigan says a government announcing peak oil threatens the economy, not only risking a market crash, but the panic that would follow would cause social and political unrest. What a moral dilemma – not warning people isn’t fair, but warning people will make an economic crash and social unrest happen sooner and does nothing to help to make a transition.

In addition, announcing peak oil will make many lose confidence in their government because they’ll feel they were deceived since this has been known since at least the 1950s when M. King Hubbert gave his famours peak oil presentation.  The publc will feel that the government failed to protect them, or was incompetent, corrupt, and colluded with private interests (especially oil companies and the institutions involved with wide-scale economic fraud and recklessness).

17) A story must be positive or a problem must have a solution to be picked up by the media as an ongoing theme.  This is even more true for getting a book published.  Although this book appears to be quite doomer: Scatter, Adapt, and Remember: How Humans Will Survive a Mass Extinction, it has a “happy” solution — we’ll just migrate to the Moon and Mars!  Hello! The only method of propulsion we have to escape the planet is fossil fuels, and they don’t come anywhere near to getting us to the speed of light necessary to get to the closest star. Nor will a space elevator do that — even if it could be built, it’s absolutely ridiculous to think we could survive on the Moon or Mars. Biosphere II was a failure, and that was right here on Earth. The idea of abandoning Earth is absurd, sad — pure science-fiction. But you can’t get a book published about how we face extinction if you don’t offer some hope.

18) Sometimes I wonder if some of our smartest energy scientists, who know that fossil fuels can’t be replaced with alternative and/or renewable energy resources, are playing a long game. Perhaps they’re trying to steer society away from war and social unrest by promising the public that renewable energy can work, with the added carrot that they’ll be doing something good for the planet and their grandchildren by slowing or stopping climate change.  They can’t ever be honest, or their long game won’t work.

If people knew that solar, wind, biomass, and so on wouldn’t work, they’d be very keen on building more coal or nuclear plants (also a disaster because we still have no way of getting rid of nuclear waste and there isn’t enough uranium left to do that), drilling for oil in the arctic (a disaster for salmon and other sea life after inevitable oil spills), and so on.

Most scientists see extinction from climate change as humanities biggest threat, especially burning coal or the dirty tar sands in Canada and heavy oils of Venezuela.   Far better to throw societies remaining energy resources into distributed energy — at least that way, as the grid flutters and dies from lack of coal and natural gas, the wealthiest people who were able to buy both solar panels and batteries could still cook, heat, and cool their homes until they broke.

19) Why bother to tell people when they won’t believe you?  James Howard Kunstler has an excellent book called “Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking, Technology, and the Fate of the Nation” that goes into the Disneyesque, happy-ending mentality of the American public.  Most people — even scientists — believe we can overcome any limits with our ingenuity and technical know-how.  It is impossible for most people to accept, or even consider, that we might be limited by forces beyond our control, mainly limited fossil fuels and the impossibility of wind, solar, nuclear, and other low-net energy, high fossil-fuel dependent “solutions” to replace oil, coal, and natural gas.

Here he explains (May 5, 2014) the situation in his own inimitable language: “Despite its Valley Girl origins, the simple term clueless turns out to be the most accurate descriptor for America’s degenerate zeitgeist. Nobody gets it — the “it” being a rather hefty bundle of issues ranging from our energy bind to the official mismanagement of money, the manipulation of markets, the crimes in banking, the blundering foreign misadventures, the revolving door corruption in governance, the abandonment of the rule-of-law, the ominous wind-down of the Happy Motoring fiasco and the related tragedy of obsolete suburbia, the contemptuous disregard for the futures of young people, the immersive Kardashian celebrity twerking sleaze, the downward spiral of the floundering classes into pizza and Pepsi induced obesity, methedrine psychosis, and tattooed savagery, and the thick patina of public relations dishonesty that coats all of it like some toxic bacterial overgrowth. The dwindling life of our nation, where anything goes and nothing matters”.

20) The IPCC has greatly exaggerated the amount of fossil fuels.  Although they invite scientists from many fields, they don’t invite geologists.  IPCC estimates of fossil fuel reserves are crazy, unjustified, and flat out wrong. That’s why their charts of CO2 continue to go up to the 21st century.  And the IPCC never says what they assume fossil reserves are, but it can be backwards calculated by their projections, which is basically that we can burn all the reserves and the resources.  Several geologists have published peer-reviewed papers that question these reserve figures (see posts here).  Tad Patzek has looked at fossil reserves and concluded that at worst, only the lowest four IPCC projections might come to pass.  It is a well-established fact that conventional oil, 90% of our oil, peaked in 2005 world-wide.  Oil-based vehicles and equipment are essential for obtaining, delivering, and maintaining the vast energy infrastructure for coal and natural gas production, so peak oil also means peak coal and natural gas — and everything else since oil is the master resources that makes all goods possible.

So peak energy and resources are going to blind-side most people, we haven’t been preparing at all for the emergency looming within 20 or so years.  And since climate change is locked in for hundreds of years, the survivors will be knocked flat again by sea-level rise, crazy weather reducing crop yields, heat waves and droughts.

I doubt the IPCC will ever change their fossil reserve figures because that would lessen the urgency of their message.

21) Politicians can’t get re-elected if they cause their constituents to suffer economic pain

Here are another six reasons from Robert L. Hirsch’s book “The Impending World Energy Mess” (and his slideshow):

22) Incompetence for all the reasons it exists (Hirsch)

23) Intellectual rigidity. People are so tied to history and their training they don’t see other technologies require different thinking (Hirsch)

24) Self-interest, often connected to a person’s job. If realities were publicly understood then a company or environmental organization might suffer, so self-interest leads to less than full disclosure and smoke screen lobbying (Hirsch)

25) Conspiracy among people and organizations to protect their common turf, which leads to all of them working to obscure inconvenient truths (Hirsch)

26) It’s not obvious that a civilization changing problem is at hand to decision makers or the public (Hirsch)

27) Decision makers want clarity, a clear path before taking action. When oil prices dropped, it was back again to “don’t worry”

28) The situation is unprecedented: The world has never faced a problem like the decline in world oil production. No action will be taken until the public is aware of the problem and can’t deny it.  By then it will be too late to avoid serious consequences. (Hirsch)

29) Why the media doesn’t explain the situation to the public: Editors don’t understand it. The story is too complicated. The public is not interested, especially since it’s a bad news story.  The public is confused by reported quantities of oil and gas in the ground: Resources are not Reserves which are not Supply; only a small percentage of reported Resources will ever be produced and added to our usable Supply.

Why aren’t contemporary ecologists and economists addressing resource and energy scarcity, as Charles A. S. Hall, in the 26 September 2013 journal Ecological Engineering, asked: Given the growing evidence that the interrelated problems of energy and resource scarcity will lead to grave problems for society, why is it that universities/science/funding agencies are generally ignoring these questions?

30) One possibility is that peak oil predictions were wrong. But the evidence shows that this is not the case. In fact, many of the earlier predictions have been shown to be correct with regard to peak oil (Brandt, 2007), peaking of global conventional oil production (Aleklett, 2012; Hallock et al., 2014), and many other resources (Heinberg, 2007), no substitutes for oil have been developed or even foreseeably might be developed on anything like the scale required, and most are very poor net energy performers. Renewable fuels remain less than 1% of world energy production, and most have low EROI (Hall and Day, 2009; Palmer, 2013).

31) Another possibility is that most were unaware of peak oil predictions. Although these predictions have had relatively little impact on public and private policy, their information has been widely disseminated over the past several decades in scientific articles, newspapers, magazines, and on the web. But universities, intellectual leaders, government, and media have largely ignored the constraintists’ information developed over the past half century.

32) Ecologists generally are no longer trained to think that resource constraints are important or within their purview and there is increasing academic fragmentation due to specialization. Our own graduate education was greatly influenced by broadly thinking ecologists who spoke loudly and often eloquently about global resource issues and the future of humanity and nature. There seem to be very few such leaders today, and there is little support from the current teachers of ecologists that these are even issues that their students should be considering. Ecologists, ideally the most integrative and interdisciplinary of scientists, have mostly taken up residence in biology departments so that ecology, which should be a broadly integrated science, is now mostly about biology. This is in part due to the present tenure system that discourages young faculty from taking on broad, systems oriented problems. Similar things can be said about our funding agencies that appear oblivious to issues such as peak oil, declining net yield of major fuels, and, more generally, the issues raised four decades ago that can be broadly characterized as “limits to growth”. Part of the reason is that these resource/population problems do not fit comfortably within any academic discipline

33) Lack of awareness. Publications on peak oil in “mainline” scientific journals are rare.  Few people stumble upon the plethora of books that do exist which are directed toward a more general audience and explained  resource, population, exponential growth implications, energy scarcity issues and other topics which make the crisis fully understandable, such as Kunstler, 2005; Heinberg, 2007; Deffeyes, 2005; Dilworth, 2009; Aleklett, 2012, and others.  I used to haunt the book stores in Berkeley, especially Cody’s and Moe’s, but Walter Youngquist’s outstanding “Geodestinies” and dozens of other books in my booklist never appeared on the shelves, and are still rarely found in the few brick and mortar book stores left standing.

34) Peter Thiel, co-founder of Paypal, major owner of Facebook and other enterprises, encouraged the scientists at Stanford’s April 2015 Net Energy Conference not to be too optimistic or too pessimistic about the energy crisis and resource shortages, because at either extreme, people will not feel they need to, or can do anything.  He recommended mild optimism or pessimism to motivate others.  Surely many others have come to the same conclusion and refrained from fully explaining the actual situation to the public.

35) NOT ON MY WATCH. The goal of a politician is to keep Business As Usual going with whatever resources can be found.  Since GROWTH is what matters to MARKET, there is no talk in the Congressional Record about conserving our supposed 100-year supply of natural gas and oil. Quite the opposite, the goal is to use it as quickly as possible. $95 billion dollars of new business are being planned according to Dow Chemical CEO  Andrew N Liveris (2013-2-12. Natural gas resources S. Hrg. 113-1. United States Senate. 188 pages.)  If this sort of exponential growth does occur, then a 100 year supply becomes 50 years, or perhaps 25 as transportation and utilities also increase their use of natural gas.

36) DRINKING THE KOOL-AID.  Leaders represent the businesses of their state or city and have to keep their personal opinions to themselves.  Some of them literally drink the Kool-aid, Governor Hickenlooper said “, I’m not sure how this happened, but the new frack fluid is made with food additives, and somehow we all took a swig of the new frack fluid, and it was not terribly tasty”. Senator Lisa Murkowski reported that “The really great thing was when someone dipped a graham cracker into the LNG and passed it around for the rest of us to eat. Senator Wyden waited for me to take the first bite to make sure I didn’t die. It was like a Thin Mint from the freezer. So I think we demystified some of the concerns about LNG” (Mufson).  They are both leaders in energy-producing states and have to promote those industries. I find it especially ironic to hear Hickenlooper say what he does now in the Congressional record, because he was a host and speaker at the Association for the Study of Peak Oil conference in 2005 when he was Mayor of Denver.

37) Above all, the crazy irrationality of both the public and the Republican leaders they elect as is well-documented in Chris Mooney’s 2012 book:  “The Republican Brain. The Science of Why They Deny Science—and Reality”. Of course Democrats get things wrong too, but the way conservative brains are wired to want certainty and closure so are both less likely to seek out new information or change their beliefs when they encounter ideas contrary to what they’ve already decided to believe in, the many Republicans who believe in a literal translation of the Bible which thus excludes scientific evidence from consideration, and so on, which is explained at length in Mooney’s introduction and my review of his book.

38) Political leaders want more certainty about peak oil before acting on it. Robert Hirsch testified at a Congressional Hearing titled “Understanding the Peak Oil Theory” in 2005, where he said:

The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It fuels most transportation worldwide and is a feedstock for pharmaceuticals, agriculture, plastics and a myriad of other products used in everyday life. The earth has been generous in yielding copious quantities of oil to fuel world economic growth for over a century, but that period of plenty is changing. The world has never confronted a problem like Peak Oil. Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an energy crisis in the sense that that term has been used. Motor vehicles, aircrafts, trucks, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not the large existing capital stock. And that capital stock has lifetimes measured in decades. Solar, wind, and nuclear power produce electricity not liquid fuels; their widespread use in transportation is at least 30 to 50 years away.

We would all like to believe that the optimists are right about peak oil, but the risks, again the risks of them being wrong, are beyond anything that we have experienced, the risks of error are beyond imagination.

Risk minimization mandates the massive implementation of mitigation well before the onset of the problem. Since we do not know when peaking is going to occur, that makes a tough problem for you folks as decision makers because if you are going to start 20 years ahead of something that is indeterminate, you have a tough time making the arguments. Mustering support is going to be difficult.

Before embarking on a massive multi-trillion dollar oil-mitigation program 20 years ahead of time to build liquefied coal plants, increase oil sand production, and other measures Hirsch recommends in his 2005 report for the Department of Energy, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management,  Congress wants to be damn sure that peak is 20 years or less away.  If they start too soon, a huge amount of money, energy, and time would be wasted.

Although many of the scientists at the hearing are saying peak may have happened and at best is very likely to peak within the next 15 years,  techno-optimist Mr. Ellis of Cambridge Energy Research Associates testifies at this hearing that “CERA does not recognize a peak in oil capacity until at least 2030.”

So Congress has done very little since then, and now there are “experts” testifying before Congress that the U.S. has 100 years of energy independence in both oil and gas.

And since this 2005 hearing, none of the peak oil geologists have been invited back.

Perhaps Congressional leaders worry too much about how they’ll be perceived by historians in the future, and by only inviting techno-optimists to testify after this hearing, they will have plausible deniability that they knew world oil production would peak so soon (House).

39) People are so clever we’ll invent new technology to cope with shortages.  This is the favorite argument of the “No limits to growth” politicians (who have to promise endless growth to get elected) and economists.  When it comes to energy, it’s often pointed out that we’ve invented fracking, tar sands, biodiesel, and ethanol.  What they don’t know is that all of these were invented a long time ago. Ethanol in ancient Egypt if not earlier (Otera 1993), Fracking was already being done late in the 19th century (Francis 2006), directional drilling in the 1930s and horizontal drilling in the 1960s (Hashash 2011).  Tar sands were already under way in 1967 (Pitts 2012).

40) If we run out of something we’ll substitute something else.  Substitution has problems as well. Even when possible, it’s usually not easy and often more energy intensive.  If we had to use something other than copper in electrical conducting apparatus aluminum could replace it – but aluminum is brittle, oxidizes easily, doesn’t conduct electricity as well, thin aluminum wires can catch on fire if heated, and aluminum production needs four times as energy as copper. Using titanium for chromium also requires more energy.

41) Scientists are too focused on their narrow field of interest by necessity, but that means that they are unable to make the wider interconnections between their area and other fields to see how much energy and resource depletion impact politics and economies of different societies.  Our education system needs to teach generalized systems (Ahmed 2017).

42) Media ownership is dominated by fossil fuel-centric interests which has led to consistently inaccurate reporting on energy issues and their relationships with economic, food, and climate crises, as well as many conflicts, especially in the Middle East.  The media usually neglects to point out that the increasing conflict and instability world-wide is caused by fossil energy decline and the inevitable transition to a post-carbon future toward an inevitable post-carbon future. (Ahmed 2017).

43) Almost all the news about energy comes from press releases about breakthroughs and are written by non-science writers, who always make it sound like now, at last, we have the improvement to save civilization.  They do not write about the hurdles that remain, or the downside of the breakthrough – yes the energy density is greater, but the battery is more likely to explode or has a lesser number of charges, the solar panel will have a shorter lifespan, and so on.

44) “Admitting peak oil will also have geopolitical consequences. Oil producing nations might lose geopolitical power, if the international community realizes that they will no longer be reliable suppliers due to declining production rates. Private investment might also decline as investors look elsewhere to make their investments. Nations with resources may become targets of new political and economic alliances and/or resource competition and wars. Considering that a rapid reduction in the global population may occur in response to oil and energy scarcity and economic decline post-peak oil, a public warning about peak oil may cause a general panic as individuals, communities, and nations react to protect and secure their lives, livelihoods, and resources against a potential dieoff event and upheaval.”

“it is clear that there is insufficient time to mitigate and prepare for peak oil and economic decline. Even if a government or industry surprised the world and released previously undisclosed new energy resources and/or technologies overnight, it would likely take years or decades and trillions of dollars to implement it on a commercial scale and to change the global energy infrastructure and economy. Therefore, it seems that a peak oil shock will be unavoidable and will come without much public warning.”(Morrigan 2010).

45) The oil industry certainly doesn’t want peak oil to be known. According to Richard Heinberg “The industry has two big reasons to hate peak oil. First, company stock prices are tied to the value of booked oil reserves; if the public (and government regulators) were to become convinced that those reserves were problematic, the companies’ ability to raise money would be seriously compromised—and oil companies need to raise lots of money these days to find and produce ever-lower-quality resources. It’s thus in the interest of companies to maintain an impression of (at least potential) abundance.”

46)  Richard Heinberg: “Some policy wonks buy “it’s all about energy” but are jittery about “renewables are the future” and won’t go anywhere near “growth is over.” A few of these folks like to think of themselves as environmentalists (sometimes calling themselves “bright green”)—including the Breakthrough Institute and writers like Stewart Brand and Mark Lynas. A majority of government officials are effectively in the same camp, viewing nuclear power, natural gas, carbon capture and storage (“clean coal”), and further technological innovation as pathways to solving the climate crisis without any need to curtail economic growth.

Other environment-friendly folks buy “it’s all about energy” and “renewables are the future” but still remain allergic to the notion that “growth is over.” They say we can transition to 100% renewable power with no sacrifice in terms of economic growth, comfort, or convenience. Stanford professor Mark Jacobson3 and Amory Lovins of Rocky Mountain Institute are leaders of this chorus. Theirs is a reassuring message, but if it doesn’t happen to be factually true (and there are many energy experts who argue persuasively that it isn’t), then it’s of limited helpfulness because it fails to recommend the kinds or degrees of change in energy usage that are essential to a successful transition.

The general public tends to listen to one or another of these groups, all of which agree that the climate and energy challenge of the 21st century can be met without sacrificing economic growth. This widespread aversion to the “growth is over” conclusion is entirely understandable: during the last century, the economies of industrial nations were engineered to require continual growth in order to produce jobs, returns on investments, and increasing tax revenues to fund government services.”

“Anyone who questions whether growth can continue is deeply subversive. Nearly everyone has an incentive to ignore or avoid it. It’s not only objectionable to economic conservatives; it is also abhorrent to many progressives who believe economies must continue to grow so that the working class can get a larger piece of the proverbial pie, and the “underdeveloped” world can improve standards of living. But ignoring uncomfortable facts seldom makes them go away. Often it just makes matters worse. “

47) Optimists versus Pessimists.  There needs to be a third category: Realists.

It has been said that “optimists have more fun in life, but pessimists may be right.” The late Congresswoman Claire Booth Luce from Connecticut said, “The difference between optimists and pessimists is that the pessimists are better informed.” Scientists are frequently labeled as pessimists because the reality they have shown in experiments results in many conclustoins thtat aren’t cheerful.  Unfortunately, factual current information about the environment and energy resource availability is not good. And that is a fact. Why not call such people realists instead of pessimists. People discount pessimists, but they might listento people called realists. Though perhaps not, the general public prefers good news, true or not.

48) People often only change their ways in a crisis.

Who likes to read a magazine or journal with ominous statements? Cheerful news sells, and editors are always glad to use it. Frequently, people with little or no background in a subject write such articles. Political agendas are notably short-term. Responding to a problem that is here and now is far more politically feasible than calling upon the public to change and sacrifice its current lifestyle to solve a problem certain to occur, but that may be years away. People in the industrial world do not want to make lifestyle changes for objectives that appear relatively remote. For the most part, changes are made only when a crisis has clearly arrived. By then it may be too late to allow for a smooth transition to new circumstances.

49) People, especially “conservatives” are wired to hate change (Mooney “The Republican Brain”).  Walter Youngquist (1997) write that “Americans want from government is to keep things as they are. They want to maintain their relatively pleasant lifestyle without major changes. The inevitability of change is not part of the public consciousness. The public is in a state of denial in this regard. Congress spends most of its time on current issues. The most fundamental relationship, that of resources and population, and the continuing destruction of the environment that is the basis for human existence, are low on the agenda. They are not pleasant topics to discuss, because resolving these problems ultimately requires a change in current levels of consumption. It would disturb the voters, and, therefore, these basic trends are ignored. Only when public awareness of the importance of these matters rises and is conveyed to Congress, will the agenda be revised.

Unfortunately, it is hard to convince the public to adopt different lifestyles and make other difficult and inconvenient choices that have no discernible immediate effect, but which, however, have long-term value. Thus in legislative forums and political agendas, the “tyranny of the moment” prevails.”

OTHER EXPERTS OPINIONS ON WHY TOO LITTLE ACTION IS TAKING PLACE

James Schlesinger First Secretary of Energy, 1977-1979, Chairman of the US Atomic Energy Commission, US Secretary of Defense, and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Below is from “James Schlesinger on peak oil In a candid 2012 interview, America’s first Secretary of Energy spoke about looming oil supply problems” by Mason Inman and Nov 1, 2010 Dr. James Schlesinger: “The Peak Oil Debate is Over” at ASPO-USA Conference.

Q: What is your hope with giving speeches in which you try to warn people? Do you think that even if there’s not a big shift, at least it will help a little bit?

Maybe, but they tend to brush it off. I don’t know whether you saw the speech I gave to the National Academy of Sciences. It was some years ago. I brought this all up, and basically they kind of shrugged it off. You know, that’s the National Academy of Sciences. That’s not the generality of American voters. I also gave a talk to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in which I raised all this, and did not get a very good response.

And I think the reason for that is complex. It’s not because they’re sucking up to the American public’s views on this. It’s because the industry really does not want to publicize the fact that oil production is not going to be available in the future the way it has been in the past. Even if we don’t have a peak, we have a plateau at some point. And a plateau, with the Chinese and Indians using more and more oil, and other developing nations using more oil, there will be less oil for the developed nations. So, the consequence is that you’re going to have to get by with less, even if you have a plateau.

Q: So what do you think is the answer to that? Does it require a grassroots effort to get the politicians to change?

Well, if the public changed, the politicians would change. The problem is the public. The public does not want to hear about this—because this is an acknowledgement that prices are going to go up, and that they’re going to have more problems running their automobiles than they want…. The political process is very sensitive to telling the people what they want to hear, right? The political order responds to what the public believes today, not to what it may come to believe tomorrow. It is also resistant to any action that inflicts pain, or sacrifice, or those who vote. The payoff in politics comes from reassurance.  Jimmy Carter was kind of an exception to that, if I may say so—and few politicians want to emulate him.  But he kept trying to say things that were true.   I was an optimist in the ‘70s…. I’m a child of the World War II. And I had this nonsensical belief that if the American President called on people to react, they would. That was true in World War II—but we had the help of the Japanese attacking Pearl Harbor to get public attention….   Anyway, it turned out that the public was less responsive to the President [Carter] than I had anticipated.  Well, you can do that if you’re Winston Churchill, you know. And Winston Churchill was very unpopular in Britain, right until the outbreak of the war, when what he had been saying came true….  It’s particularly tough in this country, because the Americans pride themselves on optimism, which means that you don’t really wish to acknowledge unpleasant prospective news.

one must remember one of the sagest of political comments, from Senator Russell Long, who basically represented the Louisiana oil interests. He once said: “The first duty of a politician is to get elected. And his second duty is to get reelected.  And remember that, in the case of President, you’re dealing with four years or possibly eight years of term. Maybe it will come after the election of my successor, but it’s not going to be a problem for me….

Q: Do you have much hope that Americans might plan ahead for these problems you’ve been warning about the past several years?

No, nothing’s going to happen until reality hits them between the eyes like a two-by-four.

On why journalists don’t cover Peak Oil: Well, one has to remember that the American boy has been raised on his love of the automobile, and, you know, tinkering with a car was a preoccupation of young American males. And what this is saying is, “Hey, that was great fun while it lasted, but it’s not going to last forever, and you’ll have to learn to do something else than tinkering with automobiles.” And that’s bad news. That doesn’t bring in votes.

Peter Maas in the NYT on why oil companies aren’t eager to talk about peak oil:

34) In the political and corporate realms of the oil world, there are few incentives to be forthright. Executives of major oil companies have been reluctant to raise alarms; the mere mention of scarce supplies could alienate the governments that hand out lucrative exploration contracts and also send a message to investors that oil companies, though wildly profitable at the moment, have a Malthusian long-term future.   Peter Maass. The Breaking Point.  Aug 21, 2005 The New York Times.

Not on My Watch

35) Since there’s nothing that can be done, and it’s both hard and expensive  to keep up with the growing number of wars over oil, infrastructure falling apart, still massive unemployment and thousands of other problems, the goal now, and perhaps always has been, is just keeping it all duct-taped together while you’re in office.

Geologist Dr. Richard G. Miller’s explanation:

36) Policy makers are only in there for the short haul.  Policy makers answer to politicians and politicians answer to the electorate, and the electorate votes its pocketbook.  Politicians have to say whatever’s going to keep them in power, to get them re-elected; only when re-elected can they “do something useful” for the country.  To be re-elected, they have to grow the economy.  In the UK today that’s why whenever there’s a conflict between the Dept. of the Environment and the Treasury, the Treasury wins.  That’s also why the government wants to go fracking in the UK.  They will do anything to try to reduce the price of energy because that will help the economy to grow.  All of which means they cannot acknowledge the longer term problems.

The Chinese are more rational.  They get peak oil and they get climate change.  But they also get that they have to finish hooking up their far-flung populations to electricity supplies and to create a bit more personal mobility.  Without that they have civil unrest, with people still flooding in from the countryside where they might become useless and uncontrollable.  So their bigger problem for now is also growing their economy.

It’s just a mess.  Bottom line: we don’t have a shortage of resources, we have a longage of people and a serious longage of their expectations.

The worst case scenario is that we keep desperately trying to find and produce more oil such that it brings us to a sharp peak.  If we get a sharp peak, we would get civil unrest and collapse, maybe in the space of a couple of years because that’s how quickly it could be.  A loss of 5+% of global supply in two years would just be awful.  But if we have a long slow decline in production with slowly rising prices—a bit like being in a war situation—none of the price change points would be sufficient to cause riots in the streets.  So, that’s what I hope.

Miller joined BP as a geochemist in 1985. He’s studied peak oil for BP since 1991.  Most recently, Dr. Miller co-authored The Future of Oil Supply, which was published by The Royal Society, in a thematic issue of Philosophical Transactions entirely devoted to future world oil supply.

Nate Hagens, on why scientists don’t speak out (march 15, 2014 private communication):

A very famous ecologist Nate spoke with recently told him that his colleagues were afraid to speak about important issues like climate change because they feared being ostracized or losing status. The ecologist called his (very famous) university ‘little more than a well-painted whore’, given how the professors only focus on what they get funding for — funding that comes from government or corporations who are growth oriented and Business-As-Usual. [my comment: I assume this means talking about “Limits to Growth” is likely to lead to no funding].

Nate Hagens on why extremely wealthy people think alternative energy resources can replace fossil fuels:

After the meeting with the ecologist, Nate went to a fundraiser where the attendees were worth tens to hundreds of millions of dollars. Nate said the president of a top 5 environmental organization spoke there on behalf of climate urgency.  He said we have the technology and ability to entirely cease coal fired electricity and oil production within 5-10 years, and replace them with renewables at a 1-2% higher cost.  He suggested that  billionaires could get together and raise $50 billion, the current market cap of United States coal companies, and shut the plants down  (Kramer).

Nate summarizes why scientists, the rich, and famous are unable to see the coming energy crisis:

  • EVERYONE believes in their own world view.
  • The more power/influence one has, the less likely ones views will change. Ever.
  • Very few people can think in systems terms. They are experts in their one area.
  • People defer to the most respected, influential person in the room — a natural ape instinct.  And since the people at the top are techno-optimists who think fossil fuels can be replaced with renewables at little cost, everyone below blindly believes likewise.

Finally there’s the huge topic of the public not believing in an energy crisis. Studies have shown that at least a third of Americans are prone to believing conspiracy theories and would refuse to believe it.  Evangelical Christians are afraid that somehow science will prove God doesn’t exist, this is one of the reasons Republicans deny climate change.  Many will lay the blame Hillary Clinton. Most will be outraged and sputter that of course renewables can replace fossil fuels. Clearly the energy crisis is fake news – a scheme for oil companies to make more money and stop renewables.

Besides, there are solutions!  An internet search gets 17 million hits on breakthrough hydrogen, 23.7 million for breakthrough battery, 24.9 million breakthrough solar, and 21.4 million breakthrough wind (in March 2022). It’s bop-a-mole even if you convince someone that one of these doesn’t scale up, costs too much, needs limited metals and minerals. Don’t worry, there are other options.  In fact, that’s exactly how I reacted when I first heard about peak oil in 2000 (called Hubbert’s curve back then) on internet energy forums like energyresources and set out to prove them wrong, spending years of intense research at University of California libraries on the many alternatives.

And this article about why Christians hate science because they fear it will prove God doesn’t exist is quite good:

From Darwin to COVID the church has been wrong. It’s really about fear among the Christian faithful when they turn away from science. Even scientific theory is dismissed out of hand by the church because of a fear that somehow science will prove that God does not exist. This is why it has been so difficult to get evangelicals to accept things proven by the scientific community. You have probably noticed that many Republicans still will not confirm that climate change is even a thing. They almost certainly know better but are spineless, too afraid to alienate their hardcore Christian constituency, despite the clear ignorance behind the evangelical understanding of the climate crisis.

Understand that for many people of faith it has become very challenging to hold onto that faith. Christians are asked to believe in an invisible being in the sky who keeps score of all our sins, and in the literal truth of a giant book put together over thousands of years that describes people rising from the dead, seas parting and water becoming wine. Because of this intense insecurity, which they cannot admit, some Christians cannot tolerate any information that weakens the case for the existence of God.

When science becomes the enemy, something like a vaccine cannot be trusted — because it was created by the same people that are trying to destroy God.

If Darwin is correct, then Adam and Eve never existed. If Adam and Eve never existed, then the lineage from Adam to King David (of David and Goliath fame), and then to Jesus Christ must be questioned. Many Christians simply do not want to ask those difficult and complicated questions. If dinosaurs were real then God never created anything in six days and then rested on the seventh. Science has proven that the earth is a few billion years old, instead of just a few thousand years old as the Bible would indicate. Science appears to the evangelical Christian to be a relentless hunter of their faith.

But science is just science. It has no agenda except to discover the truth. That is precisely the problem it presents for the faithful. To a person of faith, at least in the evangelical or fundamentalist tradition, only God is truth. Only God can be trusted. There is no theory or scientific method to discovering one’s faith. A person either decides to accept the truth of God’s existence or reject it and be condemned.

The scientific evidence around the climate crisis has become a threat to many evangelicals because it suggests that God’s ultimate plan for his creation is not working. You see, according to the evangelical reading of the Bible, after the time of Christ there is a distinct calendar of events that follows, culminating in Armageddon. Evangelicals are usually pretty excited about this idea. Those nasty non-believers finally get what’s coming to them and the good Christians get to win the battle against evil. In that context, a warming planet cannot be understood as a real concern. Potentially, it is even a signal of the return of Christ — why would a true believer do anything to stop that?

This brings us to the COVID vaccines and the fact that evangelicals have a culture and a long history of rejecting science. Somehow this vaccine has become a symbol of government overreach, but what’s even more important to evangelicals is the idea that science is telling people of faith what is true. No matter how many evangelical leaders encourage their followers to get the vaccine, this rejection of scientific data is completely ingrained in the church, dating as far back as Galileo. It is and has always been about the fear of losing their faith.

Conclusion

We need government plans or strategies at all levels to let the air out of the tires of civilization as slowly as possible to prevent panic and sudden discontinuities.

Given history, I can’t imagine the 1% giving up their wealth (especially land, 85% of which is concentrated among 3% of owners). I’m sure they’re hoping the current system maintains its legitimacy as long as possible, even as the vast majority of us sink into 3rd world poverty beyond what we can imagine, and then are too poor and hungry to do anything but find our next meal.

Until there are oil shocks and governments at all levels are forced to “do something”, it’s up to those of us aware of what’s going on to gain skills that will be useful in the future, work to build community locally, and live more simply.  Towns or regions that  already have or know how to implement a local currency fast will be able to cope better with discontinuities in oil supplies and financial crashes than areas that don’t.

The best possible solution is de-industrialization, starting with Heinberg’s 50 million farmers, while also limiting immigration, instituting high taxes and other disincentives to encourage people to not have more than one child so we can get under the maximum carrying capacity as soon as possible.

Hirsch recommended preparing for peak 20 years ahead of time, and we didn’t do that.  So many of the essential preparations need to be at a local, state, and federal level, they can’t be done at an individual level.  Denial and inaction now are likely to lead to millions of unnecessary deaths in the future.  Actions such as upgrading infrastructure essential to life, like water delivery and treatment systems (up to 100 years old in much of America and rusting apart), sewage treatment, bridges, and so on.  After peak, oil will be scarce and devoted to growing and delivering food, with the remaining energy trickling down to other essential services — probably not enough to build new infrastructure, or even maintain what we have.

I wish it were possible for scientists and other leaders to explain what’s going on to the public, but I think scientists know it wouldn’t do any good given American’s low scientific literacy, and leaders see the vast majority of the public as big blubbering spoiled babies, like the spaceship characters on floating chairs in Wall-E, who expect, no demand, happy Hollywood endings.

Also read:

Robert Hirsch’s May 16, 2012 Why oil companies deny peak oil

If you want an article to send to a denier you know, it would be hard to do better than Donald Prothero’s “How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused“.

Aleklett, Kjell. 10 June 2013. Peak oil: preparing for the extinction of ‘petroleum man’. scienceomega.com

Bland, A. 2009. Cheer Up, It’s Going to Get Worse. Bohemian.com.

BTC. November 2010.  Armed Forces, Capabilities and Technologies in the 21st Century Environmental Dimensions of Security. Sub-study 1. PEAK OIL Security policy implications of scarce resources. Bundeswehr Transformation Centre, Future Analysis Branch.

EIA. 2020. International Energy Statistics. Petroleum and other liquids. Data Options. U.S. Energy Information  Administration. Select crude oil including lease condensate to see data past 2017.

Fingerman, Kevin. 2010. Accounting for the water impacts of ethanol production.  Environmental Research Letters.

Francis, D. December 28, 2006. Torpedo Tales. E&P magazine.

Hashash, Y., et al. 2011. Evaluation of horizontal directional drilling. Civil Engineering studies, Illinois center for transportation series no.11-095.

Heinberg, R and Fridley, D. 18 Nov 2010. The end of cheap coal.  New forecasts suggest that coal reserves will run out faster than many believe. Energy policies relying on cheap coal have no future. Nature, vol 468, pp 367-69.

Heinberg, R. 2015. Afterburn: Society Beyond Fossil Fuels. New Society Publishers.

Hirsch, Robert L. 2010. “The Impending World Energy Mess. What it is and what it means to YOU!”  with co-authors Roger H. Bezdek & Robert Wendling (forward by Dr. James R. Schlesinger, 1st U.S. Secretary of Energy)

Hirsch, Robert L. July 10, 2012 slide show “Peak Oil Guru Robert Hirsch Gives A Dire Outlook For The Future”.

House. December 7, 2005. Understanding the Peak Oil theory. House of Representatives hearing. Subcommittee on Energy & Air Quality. Serial No. 109-41. 95 pages.

IEA. 2018. International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 2018, figures 1.19 and 3.13. International Energy Agency.

Kramer, Felix. March 11, 2014. Deal of the century: buy out the US coal industry for $50bn What if Bloomberg, Branson and Grantham came together to buy out the coal industry, close and clean up the mines, retrain workers and accelerate the expansion of renewable energy? TheGuardian.com

Morrigan, T. 2010. Peak energy, climate change, and the collapse of global civilization. University of California, Santa Barbara.

Mufson, S. Feb 9, 2013. Q&A: Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska on her ‘20/20’ vision for energy policy. Washington Post

Nelder, Chris. 20 Jun 2013. Positive energy To change attitudes towards energy scarcity and climate change, focus on transitions and solutions, not danger and loss. Nature. Vol 498, pp 293-5.

Otera, J. 1993. Transesterification. Chemical Reviews 93 no. e: 1449-70

Patzek, t. W. & Croft, G. D. 2010. A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis. Energy 35, 3109–3122.

Pimentel, D. et al. 1991. Land, Energy, and Water.  The Constraints Governing Ideal U.S. Population Size. Negative Population Growth.

Pitts, G. August 25, 2012. The man who saw gold in Alberta’s oil sands. Globe and Mail, Toronto.

Rowe, Mark. July 2010. When will the oil flow slow? Oil is becoming more difficult to obtain, and research suggests that it won’t be long before we’re unable to meet global demand. Geographical magazine.

Smil, V. 2000. Enriching the Earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, and the Transformation of World Food Production.  MIT Press.

Tverberg, G. 2018. Low Oil Prices: An Indication of Major Problems Ahead? ourfiniteworld.com  https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/11/28/low-oil-prices-an-indication-of-major-problems-ahead/

Urban Danger. Congressman Roscoe Bartlett youtube videos:

  • Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGE1omIaRMI
  • Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBiTrQuZuUQ&feature=related
  • Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGJHwzsPdpY&feature=related

Van Jones. 2 Sep 2007. Van Jones: Spiritually Fulfilling, Ecologically Sustainable AND Socially Just?  Pachamama Alliance Awakening the Dreamer Global Community Gathering.

Zittel, W. & schindler, J. energy Watch Group, Paper no. 1/07 (2007); available at http:// go.nature.com/jngfsa

APPENDIX: Additional writing on this topic

Feb 16, 2006 Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions Posted by Prof. Goose at theoildrum.com

I’ve been thinking a lot since the open thread Tuesday about political change in the United States, as well as they Deffeyes date set a couple of posts down. Many of us would argue that the evidence is there, “why isn’t the government reacting?”

I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term.  This is the first piece in a series of a few, the first has to do with the institutions of American government.  More of my argument under the fold…

I think it is safe to say that we can assume politicians are self-interested actors, wishing to keep their job and doing whatever they can, most of the time within reason, to keep it.

These politicians, once holding power, play the political game inside a set of institutions.  These institutions are basically sets of rules and norms that produce public policy, the outputs of government.

It is important to understand that only those politicians in “safe” districts (where the MoC (Member of Congress) gets a large percentage (usually defined as over 55%) of the vote (an increasingly common occurence with the use of GIS tools to draw lines come redistricting time) with no ambitions for higher office take real political risks and try to change the system (e.g., Roscoe Bartlett, but this is even more true of safe members of the party out of power).

The institutions (and the rules governing the “game” of politics) of the United States incentivize this behavior, because they were designed from the founding of the country to be deliberative and slow, if not glacial; they were designed do all they can to perpetuate the status quo. I think understanding the American government’s response to peak oil or any crisis requires an understanding of the theory behind the institutions, an analysis of why they are they way they are and what it will take for them to actually change.

Remember that the US does not have a “social” (like many in Europe) democracy, we have a “liberal” democracy.  Part of why this distinction exists has to do with institutions (two party/separation of powers/presidential system) that are set up to not be at all reactive but overly slow to change and deliberative.

Separation of powers is an important component that you have heard of many times, I am sure. What it means is that power in America is distributed across many actors or sets of actors, and those actors often hold responsibilities and interests set in opposition by the rules of the game. The president’s roles and constituencies in our politics are quite different from those of Congress or the courts; even though we can say that the Republican Party has basic control of the three branches of government, they do not march in lockstep; this will especially be the case if there are electoral gains made by the Democrats in 2006.

Take Britain for example, which has a “responsible party” socially democratic government with a different set of rules and institutions. The Labour Party holds power there. The prime minister, Tony Blair, (caveat: there’s more to this story, but this is the simple explanation.) was elected by his party to be the prime minister of parliament, not by the populace like in our system.

The party’s ability to be “responsible” (staying on the same page legislatively) is even more important in the British case; for instance, if the Labour Party ever actually loses an important (called a “party” vote) parliamentary vote, then elections would usually not be far behind. This can happen in many parliamentary systems quite quickly.

Still the point is that executive and legislative power are more consolidated in Britain than in the US, meaning that there is more incentive for the sides to maintain “responsibility” and stay on the same partisan page.

Let’s say we lived in a parliamentary/social democracy here in the US, pretending the rules of the game were different. Let’s also imagine that tne party is in control of (responsible for) government and policy and it screws up. With recent salient circumstances in the US, we could see how new elections could have been called countless numbers of times over the past few years and a change of leadership would have resulted.  Instead, here in the US, we have a predictable election cycle that allows for manipulation of resources and “the game,” which allows those in office to maintain office; we call this the “incumbency” advantage. (Let’s also be clear, this is not an anti-Bush rant, the same thing could have happened in 1978 or 1994, where power would have changed hand completely between the party in power and the out-party…the point is that change could/should have happened and did not).

Also, over 93% of incumbents in the House win reelection with a little lower proportion in the Senate, meaning new people with new ideas rarely make into the legislature, let alone hold positions of power.

here’s wikis on presidential and parliamentary systems for contrast:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidential_system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary

The other part of the equation that people need to understand is that our two party system is part of the problem and is likely to never change. For the most part, that too is constructed because of the way our institutions are set up, because many of our elections only have one winner (as opposed to a parliamentary system, where if you get a percentage of the vote, you are assured representation), therefore it incentivizes third, fourth, and fifth place actors, if they want power, to work with the loser of the election…over time that sorts itself out into the ideologically coherent, but polarized party system that we have presently. Here’s a wiki with more on why we have a two party system… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_party_system

Uncommon, unconventional ideas and ideologies remain non-influential, so policies and governments do not change rapidly. (Others dispute whether such innate conservatism provides advantages. While smaller parties find this exceptionally frustrating, proponents of the two-party system suggest that it enhances stability while eventually allowing for ideas that gain favor to become politically influential.)

(These systems all turn out this way because of Duverger’s Law (my field’s only “law”…and it ain’t really a law: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger%27s_law)

In my courses, I often describe the social democracy/parliamentary system as an ideological speedboat, it can react, zigging and zagging back and forth quickly, but it can also flip over and kill you.

I describe the our presidential/two party/first past the post system as a very very large cruise ship.  It is overly stable.

However, I think we also all have heard of the event/seen the movie where the crewman saw the iceberg, threw the wheel hard over, and the ship didn’t turn in time.

Simply put, both systems have weaknesses, but one is more responsive than the other.

In better words, my point is that those same institutions that have maintained the stability of the United States over the times of plenty are exactly the institutions that will keep us from reacting, as a country, in time to avoid most catastrophes. The federal systems are not designed to be proactive, as at the founding of the country, that’s not what they wanted.  At least that’s my feel for it.

This is why most of the efforts to react to peak oil are occurring at local levels of government (e.g., relocalization movements, etc.) or from the grass roots. However, those groups rarely have the power to shift resources or incentivize behaviors to the scale that the federal government could, if it would just react.

We need to reorganize our political culture at the federal level; but in order to do that, we would need a new Constitution, a new set of rules, but that would require a public outcry or political instability heretofore unseen in the US, as well as a lot of time to implement.

As I said somewhere else already today, I didn’t see anyone outside with a sandwich board today clamoring for change…so obviously, we ain’t there yet.

In my next post on this, I will discuss another set of actors, the linkages between the mass politic and these institutions that further clog the system of change and maintain the status quo.

“Peak oil” is very much a “bad-news” story.  Voters tend to punish those who first bring them the bad news.  So, wait for some other politician to open his/her mouth first.

Also, as with global warming, doubt persists, manufactured or otherwise.  Most people will avoid a hard task if they are uncertain of the benefit.  Self-interested actors need only promote uncertainty to stall action.

Continue reading

Posted in 2) Collapse, Alternative Energy, An Overview, Critical Thinking, GOVERNMENT, Limits To Growth, Other Experts | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

Solar panels in the Sahara could cause global warming

Preface. Adding tens of thousands of square miles of solar panels to replace fossil fuels could cause climate change and heat up the planet. Of course this is a fantasy, dust storms would scour the panels rendering them useless, with little water to wash them off meanwhile to prevent degradation of solar generation from dust, and a massive infrastructure of roads, transmission lines, and energy storage batteries would add trillions of dollars to the cost. And it would all have to be rebuilt every 18 to 25 years, the lifespan of solar photovoltaic panels.

So this is a Thought Experiment. Still, it is interesting to consider the consequences. The article below is based on the following scientific paper: Li Y, Kalnay E, Motesharrei S et al (2018) Climate model shows large-scale wind and solar farms in the Sahara increase rain and vegetation. Science 361: 1019-1022.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Lu Z, Smith B (2021) Solar panels in Sahara could boost renewable energy but damage the global climate – here’s why. The Conversation.

The world’s most forbidding deserts could be the best places on Earth for harvesting solar power – the most abundant and clean source of energy we have. Deserts are spacious, relatively flat, rich in silicon – the raw material for the semiconductors from which solar cells are made — and never short of sunlight. In fact, the ten largest solar plants around the world are all located in deserts or dry regions.

Researchers imagine it might be possible to transform the world’s largest desert, the Sahara, into a giant solar farm, capable of meeting four times the world’s current energy demand.

While the black surfaces of solar panels absorb most of the sunlight that reaches them, only a fraction (around 15%) of that incoming energy gets converted to electricity. The other 85% is returned to the environment as heat. The panels are usually much darker than the ground they cover, so a vast expanse of solar cells will absorb a lot of additional energy and emit it as heat, affecting the climate.

If these effects were only local, they might not matter in a sparsely populated and barren desert. But the scale of the installations that would be needed to make a dent in the world’s fossil energy demand would be vast, covering thousands of square kilometers. Heat re-emitted from an area this size will be redistributed by the flow of air in the atmosphere, having regional and even global effects on the climate.

A greener Sahara

A 2018 study used a climate model to simulate the effects of lower albedo on the land surface of deserts caused by installing massive solar farms. Albedo is a measure of how well surfaces reflect sunlight. Sand, for example, is much more reflective than a solar panel and so has a higher albedo.

The model revealed that when the size of the solar farm reaches 20% of the total area of the Sahara, it triggers a feedback loop. Heat emitted by the darker solar panels (compared to the highly reflective desert soil) creates a steep temperature difference between the land and the surrounding oceans that ultimately lowers surface air pressure and causes moist air to rise and condense into raindrops. With more monsoon rainfall, plants grow and the desert reflects less of the sun’s energy, since vegetation absorbs light better than sand and soil. With more plants present, more water is evaporated, creating a more humid environment that causes vegetation to spread.


Read more: Should we turn the Sahara Desert into a huge solar farm?


This scenario might seem fanciful, but studies suggest that a similar feedback loop kept much of the Sahara green during the African Humid Period, which only ended 5,000 years ago.

So, a giant solar farm could generate ample energy to meet global demand and simultaneously turn one of the most hostile environments on Earth into a habitable oasis. Sounds perfect, right?

Not quite. In a recent study, we used an advanced Earth system model to closely examine how Saharan solar farms interact with the climate. Our model takes into account the complex feedbacks between the interacting spheres of the world’s climate – the atmosphere, the ocean and the land and its ecosystems. It showed there could be unintended effects in remote parts of the land and ocean that offset any regional benefits over the Sahara itself.

Drought in the Amazon, cyclones in Vietnam

Covering 20% of the Sahara with solar farms raises local temperatures in the desert by 1.5°C according to our model. At 50% coverage, the temperature increase is 2.5°C. This warming is eventually spread around the globe by atmosphere and ocean movement, raising the world’s average temperature by 0.16°C for 20% coverage, and 0.39°C for 50% coverage. The global temperature shift is not uniform though – the polar regions would warm more than the tropics, increasing sea ice loss in the Arctic. This could further accelerate warming, as melting sea ice exposes dark water which absorbs much more solar energy.

This massive new heat source in the Sahara reorganizes global air and ocean circulation, affecting precipitation patterns around the world. The narrow band of heavy rainfall in the tropics, which accounts for more than 30% of global precipitation and supports the rain forests of the Amazon and Congo Basin, shifts northward in our simulations. For the Amazon region, this causes droughts as less moisture arrives from the ocean. Roughly the same amount of additional rainfall that falls over the Sahara due to the surface-darkening effects of solar panels is lost from the Amazon. The model also predicts more frequent tropical cyclones hitting North American and East Asian coasts.

Some important processes are still missing from our model, such as dust blown from large deserts. Saharan dust, carried on the wind, is a vital source of nutrients for the Amazon and the Atlantic Ocean. So a greener Sahara could have an even bigger global effect than our simulations suggested.

We are only beginning to understand the potential consequences of establishing massive solar farms in the world’s deserts. Solutions like this may help society transition from fossil energy, but Earth system studies like ours underscore the importance of considering the numerous coupled responses of the atmosphere, oceans and land surface when examining their benefits and risks.

Posted in Global Warming, Heat, Photovoltaic Solar | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Solar panels in the Sahara could cause global warming

Freshwater fish under threat of extinction

Preface. A third of freshwater fish are under threat from pollution, over fishing, dams, non-native species, climate change, disruption of river ecology and more. 

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Harvey F (2021) Global freshwater fish populations at risk of extinction, study finds. World’s Forgotten Fishes report lists pollution, overfishing and climate change as dangers. The Guardian.

Rivers and lakes are vital ecosystems. They cover less than 1% of the planet’s surface, but their nearly 18,000 fish species represent a quarter of all vertebrates, as well as providing food for many millions of people. Healthy rivers are also needed to supply clean water.

Freshwater fish are under threat, with as many as a third of global populations in danger of extinction, according to an assessment.

Populations of migratory freshwater fish have plummeted by 76% since 1970, and large fish – those weighing more than 66 pounds (30 kg) – have been all but wiped out in most rivers. The global population of megafish down by 94%, and 16 freshwater fish species were declared extinct last year.

Only 14% of the world’s river basin areas have fish populations escaping serious damage from humans activities.

The worst-hit regions are western Europe and North America, where large and affluent populations mean humans’ impact on rivers is highest, such as with the Thames in the UK and the Mississippi in the US.

The report by 16 global conservation organizations, called The World’s Forgotten Fishes, said that global populations of freshwater fish were in freefall. The problems are diverse and include pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, the introduction of invasive non-native species, climate change and the disruption of river ecologies. Most of the world’s rivers are now dammed in parts, have water extracted for irrigation or have their natural flows disrupted, making life difficult for freshwater fish. Only a third of the world’s great rivers are still free flowing without dams on them.

The report found that biodiversity in freshwater ecosystems was being lost at twice the rate of oceans and forests. There are more than 18,000 species of freshwater fish known, and more are still being discovered. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which compiles the global red list of species in danger, has assessed more than 10,000 species and found that about 30% were at risk of extinction.

The 16 organizations behind the report were: Alliance for Freshwater Life, Alliance for Inland Fisheries, Conservation International, Fisheries Conservation Foundation, Freshwaters Illustrated, Global Wildlife Conservation, InFish, the IUCN, the Sustainable Seafood Coalition, Mahseer Trust, Shoal, Synchronicity Earth, the Nature Conservancy, World Fish Migration Foundation, the WWF and Zoological Society of London.

Posted in Extinction, Fisheries | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Create a free food forest

Preface. Atlanta has planted 7 acres of land with edible and medicinal plants. Why can’t your city do the same? More than 70 other cities have. All towns have emergency plans. And after a natural disaster or oil shortage, when grocery store shelves empty out, a food garden might be a big help. My home town of Oakland is putting food forests in at Oakland Schools (OUSD 2021) and has 16 community and urban edible gardens. Even the U.S. Forest Service is promoting them (USFS 2018)

Community gardens create a sense of community, make residents healthier, and are a peaceful place to escape from city strife.

How to create one: Constructing a Food Forest, Planting Justice.

Food forests in the news

Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com  author of “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy“, 2021, Springer; “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer; Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Ryan C (2021) Atlanta creates the nation’s largest free food forest with hopes of addressing food insecurity. CNN.

When a dormant pecan farm in the neighborhoods of south Atlanta closed, the land was soon rezoned and earmarked to become townhouses.But when the townhouses never came to fruition and with the lot remaining in foreclosure, the Conservation Fund bought it in 2016 to develop an unexpected project: the nation’s largest free food forest.

Thanks to a US Forest Service grant and a partnership between the city of Atlanta, the Conservation Fund, and Trees Atlanta, you’ll find 7.1 acres of land ripe with 2,500 pesticide-free edible and medicinal plants only 10 minutes from Atlanta’s airport, the world’s busiest airport before the pandemic struck.

The forest is in the Browns Mill neighborhood of southeast Atlanta, where the closest grocery store is a 30-minute bus ride away.

“Access to green space and healthy foods is very important. And that’s a part of our mission,” says Michael McCord, a certified arborist and expert edible landscaper who helps manage the forest.The forest is part of the city of Atlanta’s larger mission to bring healthy food within half a mile of 85% of Atlanta’s 500,000 residents by 2022, though as recently as 2014, it was illegal to grow food on residential lots in the city.

Resources like the food forest are a rarity and necessity in Atlanta as 1 in 6 Georgians face food insecurity, 1 in 3 Browns Mill residents live below the poverty line, and 1 in 4 Atlantans live in food deserts so severe, some find it more apt to call the problem “supermarket redlining.”

“We host lots of students for field trips, and for a lot of them, it’s their first time at a garden or farm or forest,” said McCord. “So here they get to experience everything urban agriculture and urban forestry all in one day. It’s really special.”

The forest is now owned by the parks department and more than 1,000 volunteers and neighbors are helping to plant, water and maintain the forest. In a day alone, there can be more than 50 volunteers working on the forest.

That work of maintaining the forest is done by volunteers is a testament to the forest’s ability to build community, said Carla Smith, an Atlanta city councilwoman who helped start the project.

“It’s really a park for everyone, said Smith. “Every time I go there’s a community there who respects and appreciates the fresh healthy foods. There’s a mentality there that people know to only take what they need.”

Posted in Farming & Ranching | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Will Artificial Intelligence destroy us?

Preface. When it comes to artificial intelligence, most articles assume it will happen, so discussions range around when and how it will happen. Often speculation that a general AI may use its ability to find patterns in data will allow it to bootstrap itself to consciousness.

And then it will take over! After all, Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking and 1.5 million google hits on “Artificial Intelligence existential threat” say so! Elon Musk says adopting AI is like “summoning the demon” because AI will start a world war and they will dominate the world as deathless authoritarians.  Prof Stephen Hawking said thinking machines pose a threat to our very existence because we may not be able to control them, and spell the end of the human race (Cellan-Jones 2014). Putin predicts that the leader in AI technology will be come the ruler of the world, and 51 other experts predict AI will go out of control in various ways (CBINSIGHTS 2019).

Nick Bostrom, at the University of Oxford has written a book about how this new super-intelligence could become extremely powerful, perhaps beyond our control, and consequently our own fate as a species might depend on what decisions the machine super intelligence makes (Bostrom 2014).

Computer scientist Stuart Russel at the University of California, Berkeley, circulated a letter signed by AI researchers at google, Facebook, Microsoft and scientists around the world demanding that only research keeping AI beneficial be funded lest it get out of control and threaten us (Wolchover 2015).

So many sci-fi movies and TV have AI robots like us that it seems as if AI could happen any day now. After all, we’ve been familiar with the idea since the early 1950s when the first robot stories appeared.

AI sells products at a higher price, but it is not intelligent, it is just software code

Artificial Intelligence will never be intelligent. It is just software. There is no Wizard of Oz, just a bunch of programmers behind the curtain. And programmers write bad code. It happens for many reasons: Because everyone makes mistakes, some programmers aren’t very good at it, it is impossible to test code fully, new code breaks older code, or the specifications themselves were incorrect or missing business rules. I know that AI is just software code because for my 25-year career I designed and added new features to computer systems for health care, banking, and transportation, coding in assembly language, COBOL, C, C++, java, Powerbuilder, Model204 and other languages. Now and then I had to back my code out, sometimes I’d made a mistake, or my test data wasn’t extensive enough to find the few exceptions that would break the code. Often a bug was not my fault, but I’d be called at 2 am anyhow, only to discover it was a new upgrade of Oracle, Unix, and other systems of software and hardware.  Like pirates, once you buy another companies products, you pay tribute every year to them as they upgrade it, yet can’t shut it down lest they stop supporting older versions.

AI is just code. Oh sure, it can find patterns. If you give it a million images of dogs, and it was programmed to find dog patterns, it will usually identify a dog in a photo after many hours of computer time and electricity.  But not a cat, a house or truck. That will require many more hours of computer time and electric energy.

Many promised AI miracles may never appear.  For example, it is highly unlikely we will transition to self-driving cars (Friedemann 2020).  I’m all for the drivers assistance with lane changes and emergency braking.  By self-driving I mean cars that let you read a book, sleep — pay no attention at all.   And what a disastrous waste of energy. Studies have shown that people would drive even more with cars far less energy efficient than mass transit, clogging roads with traffic (Mervis 2017, Taiebat et al 2019).

AI will never be intelligent because it can’t match the human brain

AI can never come close to the human brain, because the coding would take hundreds of trillions of lines of code inevitably riddled with trillions of errors, because the human cortex is 600 billion times more complicated than any artificial network (Kasan 2011).

Or even an insect brain. A factory robot is no smarter than the cockroach running around on the floor below. “Today’s state-of-the-art computers process roughly as many instructions per second as an insect brain,” and they lack the ability to effectively scale.” (Kendall 2020).

AI proponents insist that AI can catch up to the human brain, because our brains are also digital.

Not true. The latest science reveals that the human brain is highly analog, with dynamic synapses that “speak in a range of whispers and shouts.” Electric spikes are delivered as analog signals whose shape impacts the magnitude of chemical neurotransmitter released across the synapses, similar to a light dimmer with variable settings. For many years these spikes were thought to be delivered digitally, like an on and off light switch.  This gives our brains tremendous supercomputer level capabilities using the energy equivalent of a refrigerator light bulb (Chao et al 2020).   The brain is so powerful and compact it can fit on your shoulders, while a modern supercomputer can take up space the size of three tennis courts (Schranghamer et al 2020)

AI and other digital systems use a tremendous amount of electricity

Just one bitcoin requires 9 years’ worth of the $12,500 electricity used in a typical home. A year of bitcoins uses more electricity than Finland, a nation of 5.5 million consumers — half a percent of all electricity consumed in the world (Huang et al 2021).

Similarly, training an AI model generates as much carbon emissions as it takes to build and drive five cars over their lifetimes (Saenko 2020). The MegatronLM language model used as much energy as three homes in a year and other AI systems even more energy (Labbe 2021).  AlphaZero, Google’s Go- and chess-playing AI system, generated 192,000 pounds of CO2 during training. John Cohn, IBM Fellow and research scientist with the MIT-IBM Watson AI Lab said that when you look at how fast AI is growing, you can see we are heading in an unsustainable direction (Dickson 2020).

To program a robotic hand to manipulate a Rubik’s cube required 1,000 desktop computers plus a dozen machines with special graphics chips for several months, consuming about 2.8 gigawatt hours of electricity, the output of three nuclear power plants for an hour.  Machine-learning algorithms consume more and more energy and data while training longer and longer (Knight 2020).

AI learning requires massive amounts of data. AlphaZero used an exabyte of data. It would take 1.5 billion CD-ROM discs to contain an exabyte, which could store nearly 11 million movies in 4K format (Fisher 2021). AI is constantly trolling Big Data to analyze how businesses can make more money and there’s lots of data to crunch through –Walmart collects 2.5 petabytes of data from 1 million customers every hour.

Image recognition training requires huge amounts of data, it took 1.2 million images to train AI to recognize 1,000 objects, while a child can learn to recognize a new kind of object or animal with just one example (Simonite 2016).

And tremendous amounts of energy to crunch through data and images.

More good news: oil and coal are essential for making robots and AI and they’re declining

In my books “When Trucks Stop Running” (Friedemann 2016) and “Life After Fossil Fuels” (2021) I use peer-reviewed citations to explain why transportation and manufacturing are showstoppers for so-called renewables.  Basically essential transportation, the trucks, locomotives, and ships that run on the diesel fraction of a crude barrel of oil (about 15% of it) can’t be electrified or run on hydrogen or anything else.  And manufacturing also requires the very high heat of fossil fuels, there are no electric or hydrogen commercial processes now to make iron, steel (arc-furnaces melt existing steel), ceramics, glass, silicon chips, bricks and more.  Over 90% of the petroleum we use is conventional, and that peaked in 2008, and all world oil production including unconventional oil probably in 2018.  And I make the case that the electric grid itself can’t stay up without natural gas.

If I’m right, then robots and AI cannot make themselves or repair themselves. They cannot reproduce. The electric grid will fail for good when natural gas is scarce or wars destroy NG power plants. AI, robots, the electric grid, wind turbines, solar panels, and anything with cement or steel require fossil fuels for every single step of their life cycle, from mining to manufacturing to transportation of their parts to an assembly factory from all over the globe and to their final destination. iPhones require 75 of the 118 elements in the periodic table, many of them rare, many of them sourced only from China (Stone 2019).

Meanwhile the cost and time to create neural networks is calling into question whether AI can continue to scale up. It costs millions of dollars to train just one model, and supercomputers aided by dozens of expensive servers and graphical processing units. After that, each query requires dozens of these expensive machines (Sparkes 2021).

How AI could harm us

A very likely way AI will harm us is taking down the electric grid.  Algorithms in artificial intelligence, are doubling their power use every two months. Another application of conventional semiconductors, Bitcoin mining, saw a tenfold increase in semiconductor energy use in 10 years and as of August 2021, its estimated annual electricity used (91 TWh/yr) is more than the annual energy use of Finland. Without a strong energy efficiency focus, conventional semiconductors’ energy use may continue to double every three years or faster while energy production only increases at 2-3% per year. Computational energy demand is rising exponentially while the world’s energy production is increasing linearly (DOE 2022).

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Financial Sense, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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References

Bostrom N (2014) Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Oxford University Press.

CBINSIGHTS (2019) How AI will go out of control according to 52 experts. Research Briefs, CBINSIGHTS. https://www.cbinsights.com/research/ai-threatens-humanity-expert-quotes/

Cellan-Jones R (2014) Stephen Hawking warns artificial intelligence could end mankind. BBC.  https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540

Chao IH et al (2020) The potassium channel subunit Kvβ1 serves as a major control point for synaptic facilitation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences;  DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2000790117

Dickson B (2020) AI Could Save the World, If It Doesn’t Ruin the Environment First. As AI usage grows, its energy consumption and carbon emissions are becoming an environmental concern. PcMag. https://www.pcmag.com/news/ai-could-save-the-world-if-it-doesnt-ruin-the-environment-first

DOE (2022) Semiconductor Supply Chain deep dive assessment. U.S. Department of Energy Response to Executive Order 14017, “America’s Supply Chains”.

Fisher T (2021) Terabytes, Gigabytes, & Petabytes: How Big Are They? Lifewire.com

Friedemann A (2016) When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation. Springer

Friedemann A (2020) Why self-driving cars may not be in your future. Energyskeptic.com

Friedemann A (2021) Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy. Springer

Hall CAS, Klitgaard K (2018) Energy and the Wealth of Nations: An Introduction to Biophysical Economics. Springer.

Huang J et al (2021) Bitcoin Uses More Electricity Than Many Countries. How Is That Possible?. New York Times.  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/09/03/climate/bitcoin-carbon-footprint-electricity.html

Kasan P (2011) A.I. Gone awry: the future quest for artificial intelligence. Skeptic.

Kendall JD, Kumar S (2020) The building blocks of a brain-inspired computer. Applied Physics Reviews, DOI: 10.1063/1.5129306

Knight W (2020) AI Can Do Great Things—if It Doesn’t Burn the Planet. Wired.  https://www.wired.com/story/ai-great-things-burn-planet/

Labbe M (2021) Energy consumption of AI poses environmental problems. SearchEnterpriseAI. https://searchenterpriseai.techtarget.com/feature/Energy-consumption-of-AI-poses-environmental-problems

Mervis, J. December 15, 2017. Not so fast. We can’t even agree on what autonomous, much less how they will affect our lives. Science.

Murphy TW (2021) Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet. eScholarship. https://open.umn.edu/opentextbooks/textbooks/980

Saenko K (2020) It takes a lot of energy for machines to learn – here’s why AI is so power-hungry. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/it-takes-a-lot-of-energy-for-machines-to-learn-heres-why-ai-is-so-power-hungry-151825

Schranghamer T.F. et al (2020) Graphene memristive synapses for high precision neuromorphic computing. Nature Communications, 2020; 11 (1) DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19203-z

Simonite T (2016) Algorithms That Learn with Less Data Could Expand AI’s Power. Technologyreview.com

Sparkes M (2021) Largest ever AI suggests limits to scaling up. New Scientist.

Stone M (2019) Behind the Hype of Apple’s Plan to End Mining. Gizmodo.com

Taiebat, M., et al. 2019. Forecasting the Impact of Connected and Automated Vehicles on Energy Use: A Microeconomic Study of Induced Travel and Energy Rebound. Applied Energy247: 297

Wolchover N (2015) This Artificial Intelligence Pioneer Has a Few Concerns. Increasingly rapid advances in AI have given Stuart Russell’s concerns heightened urgency. Wired. https://www.wired.com/2015/05/artificial-intelligence-pioneer-concerns/

Posted in An Index of Best Energyskeptic Posts, Artificial Intelligence, Electric Grid, Electric Grid & Fast Collapse | Tagged , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

Bill Gates on why Electric Airplanes won’t fly

Preface. I wonder if Bill Gates has read my book “When Trucks Stop Running”? As he says in the article below: “The renaissance of electrification that we’re seeing in passenger vehicles unfortunately won’t likely adapted to heavier forms of transportation — such as airplanes, cargo ships and semi tractor trailers — in the foreseeable future. Today’s batteries simply can’t hold enough power to sufficiently offset their weight and bulk.”

Then a bunch of nonsense as well (not shown) with the worst recommendation at the end: “We need a massive effort to explore all the ways we can make advanced biofuels and cheap electrofuels. Companies and researchers are exploring several different pathways—for example, new ways to make hydrogen using electricity, or using solar power, or using microbes that naturally produce hydrogen as a by-product. The more we explore, the more opportunities we’ll create for breakthroughs.”

No Bill, no! Hydrogen won’t work, it is the stupidest of all the energy salvation proposals out there, solar PV is not an option, and biofuels have a negative energy return, don’t scale up, and would destroy ecosystems.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

* * *

Tarantola A. 2021. Hitting the Books: Bill Gates on why we can’t have electric airplanes. Or long-haul cargo ships, for that matter. Engadget.

Not long ago, my friend Warren Buffett and I were talking about how the world might decarbonize airplanes. Warren asked, “Why can’t we run a jumbo jet on batteries?” He already knew that when a jet takes off, the fuel it’s carrying accounts for 20 to 40% of its weight. So when I told him this startling fact — that you’d need 35 times more batteries by weight to get the same energy as jet fuel — he understood immediately. The more power you need, the heavier your plane gets. At some point, it’s so heavy that it can’t get off the ground. Warren smiled, nodded, and just said, “Ah.”

The renaissance of electrification that we’re seeing in passenger vehicles unfortunately won’t likely adapted to heavier forms of transportation — such as airplanes, cargo ships and semi tractor trailers — in the foreseeable future. Today’s batteries simply can’t hold enough power to sufficiently offset their weight and bulk.

When you’re trying to power something as heavy as a container ship or jetliner, the rule of thumb I mentioned earlier — the bigger the vehicle you want to move, and the farther you want to drive it without recharging, the harder it’ll be to use electricity as your power source—becomes a law. Barring some unlikely breakthrough, batteries will never be light and powerful enough to move planes and ships anything more than short distances.

Consider where the state of the art is today. The best all-electric plane on the market can carry two passengers, reach a top speed of 210 miles per hour, and fly for three hours before recharging. Meanwhile, a mid-capacity Boeing 787 can carry 296 passengers, reach up to 650 miles an hour, and fly for nearly 20 hours before stopping for fuel. In other words, a fossil-fuel-powered jetliner can fly more than three times as fast, for six times as long, and carry nearly 150 times as many people as the best electric plane on the Market.

Batteries are getting better, but it’s hard to see how they’ll ever close this gap. If we’re lucky, they may become up to three times as energy dense as they are now, in which case they would still be 12 times less energy dense than gas or jet fuel.

The same goes for cargo ships. The best conventional container ships can carry 200 times more cargo than either of the two electric ships now in operation, and they can run routes that are 400 times longer. Those are major advantages for ships that need to cross entire oceans.

Given how important container ships have become in the global economy, I don’t think it will ever be financially viable to try to run them on anything other than liquid fuels. Unfortunately, the fuel that container ships run on — it’s called bunker fuel — is dirt cheap, because it’s made from the dregs of the oil refining process. Since their current fuel is so inexpensive, the Green Premium for ships is very high.

 

 

Posted in Airplanes, Batteries | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Book Review “The Outlawed Ocean” by Ian Urbina

Note: Peak fish happened in 1996 at 130 million tonnes a year. Pauly D, Zeller D (2016) Catch reconstructions reveal that global marine fisheries catches are higher than reported and declining. Nature communications.

Preface. This is a book review of Urbina’s “The Outlaw Ocean: Journeys Across the Last Untamed Frontier”. A bit depressing to find out many fishermen are enslaved on disgusting boats for many years. But a good prod towards buying local fish, even at a higher price.

I don’t see this ending until ships run out of fuel to journey to the end of the Earth to get the last fish.  World peak oil production probably happened in 2018, and that will dramatically reduce climate change, warming oceans, acidification, declining oxygenation, and toxins which harm fish so much that jellyfish may someday take over the oceans.  Globally, so many fish have been caught that fishing boats have to venture farther  to break even. Fuel costs typically eat up at least 60% of a long-haul vessel’s earnings, double what it did two decades ago.

This book is about much more than overfishing. It’s also about the hard life and culture of the poor men on fishing boats, the corruption and bribery at ports, stolen ships and those who try to find and take them back, the many ways cruise lines pollute oceans, and massive amounts of nuclear and other toxic wastes are secretly dumped.  How whales are now outsmarting fishing boats and taking fish off of their long-lines, while ships take so much krill it is decimating their populations and the food whales eat.  And much more.  

Some material I found interesting:

  • Ocean boundaries are not clear, which is why one of every five fish on dinner plates is caught illegally and the global black market for seafood is worth more than $20 billion. Most of the world’s fish stocks are in crisis from overfishing.
  • Scientists estimate that more than ninety million sharks are killed every year for their fins. By 2017, roughly a third of all shark species were nearing extinction. Sharks are keystone species: a reduction in their population can collapse an entire food web all the way down to reef habitats. Without the apex predator, too many smaller fish survive and eat too many of the microorganisms that sustain the reefs. Enforcing rules against shark poaching doesn’t just protect the sharks; it gives the reefs a fighting chance at survival.  
  • Finding a single ship in the millions of square miles of open sea was hard enough. Scofflaw ships like the Thunder deftly used the tangled skein of confusing, conflicting maritime laws, difficult-to-enforce treaties, and deliberately lax national regulations to evade the law and shed their identities. With a couple of phone calls, payoffs of a few thousand dollars, and a can of paint, the ship could, as it had in the past, take a new name and register with a new flag as it steamed to its next fishing grounds.  The 2,200-horsepower trawler changed names more than a dozen times in its 45-year career. During that time, it flew nearly as many flags, including the colors of the U.K., Mongolia, the Seychelles, Belize, and Togo.  The Thunder’s name and port registry were not painted on its hull. Instead, they were painted on a metal sign hung from its stern, to be swapped out quickly if needed. Sailors called these signs “James Bond license plates. By keeping its locational transponder, or AIS, turned off, the Thunder could avoid being tracked. It was a simple drill. Time and again, it slipped into port, off-loaded its catch to complicit or unwitting buyers, refueled, and was on its way before anyone noticed.
  • Over the past century, however, technology has transformed fishing from a type of hunting into something more akin to farming. With highly mechanized ships that operate more like floating factories, the industry became brutally efficient at stripping the seas of virtually everything in them. By 2015, about 94 million tons of fish were caught each year, more than the weight of the entire human population.
  • Submarine combat propelled innovation in sonar, helping illuminate the dark fathoms. Finding fish became more a science of spreadsheets than an art of dead reckoning. Subzero onboard freezers freed fishermen from their race against melting refrigerator ice. Innovations in plastics and monofilaments lengthened fishing lines from feet to miles. Lightweight polymer-based nets enabled super-trawlers to rake the ocean with a mesh of steel cables strung between them.
  • As the size and strength of nets increased, so too did the amount of bycatch that was inadvertently killed and thrown back. More than half the global catch is now tossed overboard dead, or it is ground up and pelletized to feed pigs, poultry, and farmed fish. These technological advances, as well as the industrialization of fishing, are a big reason why catches from the high seas rose 700 percent in the last half a century. They also partly explain why many of the world’s fish stocks are at the brink of collapse.
  • Crews only get paid if they catch enough. This means tensions run high on the boats, and captains fear their crews as intensely as they drive them. Language and cultural barriers add further divisions; most boats have three Thai officers (the captain, the engineer, and the first mate), while the rest are foreign migrants. When shorthanded, captains sometimes took desperate measures and drug or kidnap men.  
  • The karaoke bars in Ranong used one type of trafficked migrant to entrap another type of trafficked migrant, and the sex workers and their indebted clients were both, quite often, children.  
  • In Kota Kinabalu, I met a 38-year-old Cambodian deckhand who said that during his year of captivity on a fishing boat he had been temporarily dropped off for several weeks on a “prison island,”, one of thousands of mostly uninhabited atolls in the South China Sea, where fishing captains routinely disembarked captive workers, sometimes for weeks, while their vessels were taken to port for repair. Typically, the captain would leave the crew with a guard who was equipped with water, canned goods, and means to fish. The guard ensured that the men were fed and that none of them tried to leave with another boat.
  • What will happen to offshore oil platforms and wind turbines?  The metal on these structures corrodes and leaches dangerous pollution over time.   Renewable-energy firms have started planning wind farms, wave-energy converters, and floating solar panels in international waters. Who will be responsible for cleaning up the contraptions if they do not work, if their companies go bankrupt, or when they become obsolete?

Fishery destruction in the news:

Podcast: 2022 Daniel Pauly: “Peak Fish and Other Ocean Realities” 

Korten T (2020) The hunt for the modern-day pirates who steal millions of tons of fish from the seas. Smithsonian.

Collyns D (2020) They just pull up everything!’ Chinese fleet raises fears for Galápagos sea life.  A vast fishing armada off Ecuador’s biodiverse Pacific islands has stirred alarm over ‘indiscriminate’ fishing practices. TheGuardian.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Urbina I (2019) The Outlaw Ocean: Journeys Across the Last Untamed Frontier. Vintage.  

The Thunder was among the best at this trade and, in the eyes of conservationists, the worst of the Bandit 6, a reputation earned over decades of poaching the ghastly-looking toothfish, a species found only in the earth’s coldest waters.

The fish is also a favorite entrée in upscale restaurants in the United States and Europe, costing about $30 a fillet. But diners won’t find “toothfish” on menus. There, it is sold under a more palatable name: Chilean sea bass.

The oily fish, rich in omega 3, soon came to be known on docks worldwide as white gold. Most scientists now agree that the toothfish population is dwindling at an unsustainable rate.

In December 2013, Interpol issued an all-points bulletin for police worldwide to arrest the Thunder. This Purple Notice hardly mattered, though, if the Thunder was able to avoid notice. Finding a single ship in the millions of square miles of open sea was hard enough. Scofflaw ships like the Thunder deftly used the tangled skein of confusing, conflicting maritime laws, difficult-to-enforce treaties, and deliberately lax national regulations to evade the law and shed their identities. With a couple of phone calls, payoffs of a few thousand dollars, and a can of paint, the ship could, as it had in the past, take a new name and register with a new flag as it steamed to its next fishing grounds.  The 2,200-horsepower trawler changed names more than a dozen times in its 45-year career. During that time, it flew nearly as many flags, including the colors of the U.K., Mongolia, the Seychelles, Belize, and Togo.

The Thunder’s name and port registry were not painted on its hull. Instead, they were painted on a metal sign hung from its stern, to be swapped out quickly if needed. Sailors called these signs “James Bond license plates.

By keeping its locational transponder, or AIS, turned off, the Thunder could avoid being tracked. It was a simple drill. Time and again, it slipped into port, off-loaded its catch to complicit or unwitting buyers, refueled, and was on its way before anyone noticed. Unless, of course, there was someone like Hammarstedt tailing it, watching its every move, and calling ahead to alert local officials and Interpol.

***

To avoid frostbite while working on deck, the Sea Shepherd crews often wore survival suits. Weighing nearly ten pounds, the suits were made of neoprene, a type of rubber that is completely waterproof and designed to withstand extreme cold. Awkwardly puffy and usually bright orange to attract the attention of passing ships if a person fell overboard, the suits were nicknamed Gumbies, after the famous clay animation character. The suits also caused severe chafing and stank of dried sweat. “Bleed or freeze,” one deckhand said to me as he helped me put mine on at one point. “Those are your options.

Gill nets are banned because they are particularly blunt instruments. The bottom of the nets are weighted to drop to the seafloor. Buoys hold up the tops, creating an imperceptible mesh wall that can stretch seven miles across and twenty feet high. Forming an inescapable maze, the Thunder set up dozens of these walls to zigzag the underwater plateaus where toothfish congregate. The buoys at the tops of the nets helped the fishing boats find them later when they returned to pull the mesh back on board, usually loaded with catch.

Hauling in the net from the frigid water was a dangerous and brutally arduous task. The net was 45 miles long, triple the length of Manhattan, and Antarctica is among the coldest and windiest places on earth. The deck of the Sam Simon was partially frozen and cluttered. The crew’s spit froze before landing. The ship’s railings were low. Tripping was easy. Marbled with slush, the polar water below dipped in some places to ninety degrees Fahrenheit below freezing. Falling overboard would have meant almost certain death within a couple of minutes, most likely from cardiac arrest, unless quickly rescued. When the sway was severe, deckhands wore harnesses and latched themselves to the ship to avoid getting swept away.

For every four sea creatures netted, one was a toothfish; the rest were bycatch that nobody would want even if they were alive. Virtually all of Sea Shepherd’s crew were vegetarian or vegan, many of them motivated by a concern for animal rights. Untangling the dead and dying wildlife from those nets, including rays, giant octopuses, dragonfish, and large crabs, was difficult work, emotionally and physically.

In this famously rough stretch of the Southern Ocean, storms gather force for tens of thousands of miles as they travel east across open water, technically called the fetch, unimpeded by land except for South America’s lower tip. Winds can top two hundred miles per hour. Waves reach ninety feet tall. Polar fronts and trade winds generate an average of one angry storm per week. To pass through this region, ships typically wait on the periphery to slip between these storms. The Thunder did not.  

As the wider, heavier Thunder held steady over the next two days in the storm, the Bob Barker swayed back and forth, listing 40 degrees and battered by 50-foot waves. Below deck, fuel sloshed in the Barker’s tanks, splashing through ceiling crevices and filling the ship with diesel fumes. In the galley, a plastic drum tethered to the wall broke free, coating the floor in vegetable oil that bled into the cabins below. Half the crew was seasick. “It was like working on an elevator that suddenly dropped and climbed six stories every ten seconds,

As much as it was a test of wills and daring, the chase of the Thunder was a game of endurance. In prior weeks, the Thunder had done everything in its power to prevent its adversaries from replenishing themselves. The Bob Barker and the Sam Simon typically sailed parallel to each other, spread apart by about half a mile. When they moved near each other, the Thunder’s captain assumed they were trying to exchange supplies or top up the other’s fuel tank so he swung his ship around and wedged it between his adversaries. The Sea Shepherd captains laughed at the move because they were stocked well enough not to need resupplying for at least a couple months more. I never got a straight answer from the Sea Shepherd captains as to why they kept moving their ships near each other. I suspected it was simply to play head games with their opponent.

Today, many countries, including landlocked ones such as Mongolia and Bolivia, sell the right to fly their flag. Some of the biggest registries are run by overseas businesses, like the Liberian registry that is overseen by a firm based in Virginia. The company collecting fees for the right to fly a certain flag is also responsible for policing its customers, ensuring they abide by safety, labor, and environmental rules, and conducting investigations when things go wrong. But in practice, flags of convenience double as cloaks of misconduct, creating a perverse incentive for ship operators to shop around for the most lax registries with the lowest prices and fewest regulations. This regulatory regime was quite decidedly designed not to provide true oversight but to provide the illusion of oversight. And the way it functions is akin to being allowed to slap a license plate from any country on your car, regardless of where you live or intend to drive, and the police in charge of inspecting the vehicles and investigating accidents are paid by the drivers themselves.

While some countries will fight over inches of dirt on either side of a border, ocean boundaries are less clear, which makes chasing poachers seemingly futile. This is why one of every five fish on dinner plates is caught illegally and the global black market for seafood is worth more than $20 billion. Most of the world’s fish stocks are in crisis from overfishing.

To offset poverty wages, ship captains typically allow their crews to supplement their income by keeping the fins to sell at port. The bodies of the sharks take up valuable space in the hold of smaller ships. When they decompose, the carcasses produce ammonia that contaminates the other catch. I’d encountered this pungent odor before on a fishing ship in the Philippines that had a stack of the carcasses in its hold, and it smelled like cat urine. To avoid wasting space and contaminating more valuable catch, deckhands usually throw the rest of the shark back into the water after they cut off the fins, which can sell for a hundred times the cost of the rest of the meat. It is a slow death: the sharks, alive but unable to swim without their fins, sink to the seafloor, where they starve, drown, or are slowly eaten by other fish.

Scientists estimate that more than ninety million sharks are killed every year for their fins. By 2017, roughly a third of all shark species were nearing extinction. Sharks are keystone species: a reduction in their population can collapse an entire food web all the way down to reef habitats. Without the apex predator, too many smaller fish survive and eat too many of the microorganisms that sustain the reefs. Enforcing rules against shark poaching doesn’t just protect the sharks; it gives the reefs a fighting chance at survival.  

Over the past century, however, technology has transformed fishing from a type of hunting into something more akin to farming. With highly mechanized ships that operate more like floating factories, the industry became brutally efficient at stripping the seas of virtually everything in them. By 2015, about 94 million tons of fish were caught each year, more than the weight of the entire human population. Much of the credit and blame goes to the building boom in the 1930s of purse seiners. These ships surround an entire school of fish with a deep curtain of netting, sometimes nearly a mile around, with a thick wire that runs through rings along the bottom of the mesh. After setting the net, the ship hauls in the bottom wire, and the net is pursed, or cinched, like a laundry bag. A crane lifts the net out of the water, the fish are dumped into a gaping funnel, sorted (often by conveyor belt), and swallowed into the ship hold.

World War II spurred engineers to develop lighter, faster, more durable ships that could travel farther on less fuel. Submarine combat propelled innovation in sonar, helping illuminate the dark fathoms. Finding fish became more a science of spreadsheets than an art of dead reckoning. Subzero onboard freezers freed fishermen from their race against melting refrigerator ice. Innovations in plastics and monofilaments lengthened fishing lines from feet to miles. Lightweight polymer-based nets enabled super-trawlers to rake the ocean with the ruthlessness of two tanks rolling through a rain forest, a mesh of steel cables strung between them.

As the size and strength of nets increased, so too did the amount of bycatch that was inadvertently killed and thrown back. More than half the global catch is now tossed overboard dead, or it is ground up and pelletized to feed pigs, poultry, and farmed fish. For instance, feeding a single “ranched” tuna can require catching and pelletizing over thirty times the weight of that tuna in fish pulled from the sea. These technological advances, as well as the industrialization of fishing, are a big reason why catches from the high seas rose 700 percent in the last half a century. They also partly explain why many of the world’s fish stocks are at the brink of collapse.

Since the 1990s, ships had been able to deploy the automatic identification system, or AIS, a collision-avoidance system. AIS has its shortcomings: Captains could and were allowed to turn the transponders off when they feared being tracked by pirates or competitors. The system could be hacked to give false locations. Many of the boats involved in the worst crimes, like the Shin Jyi, were smaller than 300 tons.

More sea-traffic data would become available as countries deployed sonar and camera buoys as well as low-cost floating hydrophones to catch boats approaching restricted areas. Satellites, mostly used by governments and armed with synthetic-aperture radar, could also detect a vessel’s position regardless of weather conditions. As the 2015 capture of the Shin Jyi proved, all this information became especially powerful when coupled with sophisticated monitoring software that triggered alerts if, for instance, a vessel went “dark” by turning off its transponder or if a poacher entered a no-fishing area. Now, instead of blindly patrolling broad swaths of ocean, police had, in effect, eyes in the sky.

Still, this new technology was not a panacea. Popular television shows like Homeland and Person of Interest make aerial surveillance seem as reliable as Google Maps, but capturing this detailed imagery from the sky depends largely on military-grade drones. Taking high-resolution photographs from space is extremely costly (often over $3,500 per picture), and requests for images have to be made a week in advance so that the companies or governments operating the satellites know to aim their lens at the precise spot as they hurtle around the earth. — The vastness of the ocean also complicates surveillance efforts, even by sophisticated satellite tracking used by the likes of SkyTruth’s Bergman in West Virginia. Seen from above, the world’s largest fishing trawler, the Dutch-flagged Annelies Ilena, has a surface area of about thirty-five hundred square meters—equivalent to eight NBA courts. Even if a satellite were scanning just 1 percent of the Atlantic Ocean, the Annelies Ilena would take up only three-billionths of that swath. If a ship turns off its transmitter, any knowledge of its whereabouts can quickly evaporate. · · · For centuries, local fishermen have taken advantage of fish’s instinct to huddle near floating objects for protection and mating. By building special buoys with plastic and bamboo flotsam strung together with old nets, these fishermen attract fish to one spot, making them easier to catch and greatly cutting the time required to keep their boats at sea. The buoys, which modern researchers began calling “fish aggregating devices,” or FADs, have had a particularly powerful impact on the seas near Palau. To attract species like tuna and blue marlin, fishing companies are increasingly using “smart” FADs equipped with

Sonar and GPS, which let boat captains sit back and wait on land to be alerted when it’s time to gather up their haul. They’re so effective, in fact, that in some places in the world fishermen hire armed guards to sit on or near the FADs to ensure that competitors don’t destroy them or steal the fish around them.

In Indonesia, fishermen told me about villagers hired to stand guard on floating tarp-covered platforms alongside FADs, dozens of miles from shore. Usually these guards were supplied with several jugs of water, salted fish, a gun, and promises that someone would visit them in a week or so to provide new supplies or to take them back to shore. Sometimes, those promises were not kept or a storm killed the men, washing their bodies ashore. I heard similar stories in the Philippines, where FAD guards had been killed in firefights with other fishermen.

The absence of fish near the FADs served as a reminder that the seas, though vast, were inextricably linked and by no means inexhaustible. The success of Palau’s reserve depended in part on other countries creating their own. “They’re getting taken before they get here,” Baiei said about the missing fish.

Tuna, like many large ocean fish, are migratory. Near Palau, populations of yellowfin, bigeye, and skipjack are in sharp decline, partly because they never make it to Palau’s reserve. They are being picked off beforehand in a number of ways, including being netted at one of the more than fifty thousand floating FADs in the western and central Pacific Ocean, most of which are perfectly legal.

In its grand fight to safeguard its waters, Palau was doing many of the right things, including having created a marine reserve that protected nearly 80 percent of its territorial waters from industrial fishing. But for the country’s conservation efforts to succeed, Palau needed other governments and industries to follow suit. Palau could not succeed on its own.

Palau’s unfettered tourism. More than half of the country’s gross domestic product was based on ecotourism, mostly because of people drawn to the world-class snorkeling and scuba diving. In 2015, the average number of tourists per month coming from China soared to nearly 11,000 from about 2,000 the year prior. It turned out, though, that many of these tourists were as eager to eat the fish as they were to see them. Not coincidentally, the variety of exotic seafood appearing on local restaurant menus in Palau grew as well, including banned fish like Napoleon wrasse, hump-head parrot fish, and hawksbill turtles that were mostly caught by local fishermen. Even as the Palauans tried to keep foreign poachers from entering their waters, they struggled to stop local fishermen from supplying protected fish to their own restaurants.

For Palau’s marine officers, catching poachers was just the first step. After they brought them to shore, there was no guarantee that Palau would have the translators to communicate with the foreign crews, jail space to hold them, or even the laws to effectively prosecute them. Most of the poachers they arrested were from small boats owned by family businesses. These operators typically had nowhere near the $500,000 to pay some of the tougher fines, much less the expense of repatriating their crews.

When these boats were seized, Palau was stuck with the cost of feeding, housing, and flying the crews home.  I left Palau less with hope than with a painful sense of the barriers to marine preservation. The threats facing the oceans were far bigger and more complex than criminality. Palau’s true adversaries were not best understood as legal or illegal. They were bigger: climate change, unchecked tourism, a vastly untamed geography, and a level of poverty that filled boats with men who cared more about survival than about laws.

I had done some reading about the rich and fanciful history of aquatic micronations. At least since Jules Verne’s Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea was first published in 1870, people have dreamed of creating permanent colonies on or under the ocean.

Many of these projects might have made sense in theory, but they never accounted for the harsh reality of ocean life. At sea, there is plenty of wind, wave, and solar energy to provide power, but building renewable-energy systems that could survive the weather and the corrosive seawater was difficult and costly. Communication options remain limited: satellite-based connections were prohibitively expensive, as was laying a fiber-optic cable or relying on point-to-point lasers or microwaves that tethered the offshore installation to land. Traveling to and from seasteads was challenging. Waves and storms could be especially disruptive. “Rogue” waves occur when smaller waves, sometimes traveling in different directions, meet and combine.

They can be taller than 110 feet—almost twice the height of Sealand. Running a country—even a pint-sized one—isn’t free. Who, for example, would subsidize basic services (the ones usually provided by the tax-funded government that seasteading libertarians sought to escape)? Keeping the lights on and protecting against piracy would be expensive.

In 2008, these visionaries united around a nonprofit organization called the Seasteading Institute. Based in San Francisco, the organization was founded by Patri Friedman, a Google software engineer and grandson of Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize–winning economist best known for his ideas about the limitations of government. The institute’s primary benefactor was Peter Thiel, a billionaire venture capitalist and the co-founder of PayPal who donated more than $1.25 million to the organization and related projects. Thiel also invested in a start-up venture called Blueseed. Its purpose was to solve a thorny problem affecting many Silicon Valley companies: how to attract engineers and entrepreneurs who lacked American work permits or visas. Blueseed planned to anchor a floating residential barge in international waters off the coast of Northern California. Never getting beyond the drawing-board phase, Blueseed failed to raise the money necessary to sustain itself.

Michael grinned unexpectedly. He seemed as proud of the convoluted story behind his family’s bizarre creation as he was of Sealand’s resilience. Taking advantage of a gap in international law, Sealand had grown old while other attempts at seasteads never made it far beyond what-if imaginings. The Bates family was certainly daring, but the secret to Sealand’s survival was its limited ambitions. Irreverent but inconsequential, Sealand was not Al-Qaeda or ISIS seeking to create a grand caliphate. In the view of its powerful neighbors, Sealand was merely a rusty kingdom, easier to ignore than to eradicate.

August 14, 2010, the captain of a South Korean trawler, the Oyang 70, left Port Chalmers, New Zealand, for what would be his final journey. The ship was bound for fishing grounds about four hundred miles east in the South Pacific Ocean. When the ship arrived three days later, the captain, a 42-year-old man named Hyonki Shin, ordered his crew to cast the net over the vessel’s rusty stern. As the men worked furiously on the illuminated deck, the ship soon began hoisting in thousands of pounds of a lithe, slender fish called southern blue whiting, which writhed and flapped across the deck. With each haul, the silvery mound of fish grew. A type of cod, blue whiting was sometimes ground up into fish sticks or imitation lobster. More often it was pelletized and sold as protein-rich food for farmed carnivorous fish like salmon. At about nine cents per pound, blue whiting was a low-price catch, which meant the Oyang 70 had to catch a lot to make a profit. As the crew pulled in the net, ton after ton of the fish slid to the deck—eighty-six thousand pounds in all, a decent haul. The battered 242-foot ship was long past its prime. The average age for distant-water fishing boats in the South Korean fleet was 29, and the Oyang 70 was 38 years old. Port captains called the Oyang 70 “tender,” a euphemism for unstable. A month before it set sail, a New Zealand inspector ranked the ship as “high risk,” citing over a dozen safety violations, including one of the ship’s main doors below deck that was not watertight.

Shin drove his men hard. As the first net was pulled that night, they sorted the squirming, oily mound on the aft deck, quickly heaving the fish down a chute to the ship’s interior to make space for the next haul. One floor down, in the ship’s factory, over a dozen men stood cramped before the “slime line,” a conveyor belt, wielding knives and operating circular saws. Their job was to remove heads, guts, and bycatch, while the valuable part of the fish continued down the line for packing and freezing. The men needed roughly half a day to fully process the first catch. But before they made it through the load, Shin ordered the men on deck to put the net back in the water. Work continued virtually nonstop over the next twenty-four hours. Around 3:00 a.m. on August 18, 2010, the ship’s first mate, Minsu Park, frantically roused Shin from his sleep. The net was too full, Park told him. It was pulling the boat under. Water in the engine room was already several feet deep. The crew on deck was begging to cut the net. The captain jumped from his bunk and raced to the bridge. But instead of ordering the net cut, he demanded that the bosun, the man in charge of the deckhands, command them to keep hoisting. That order would be Shin’s last.

For the Sajo Oyang Corporation, which operated the vessel, the poor treatment of workers and the dismal condition of its ship was nothing unusual. Time and again, Sajo Oyang abused its crew members, often treating them with the same disregard as it treated the bycatch in its nets—as a distraction and annoyance. Sometimes, that disregard cost men their lives. The infamy of the Sajo Oyang fleet, as well as the fate that befell its captain and crew, was well-known in maritime circles.  What stood out about the story of the Oyang ships was that safety risks and violations, and the persistent mistreatment of workers, were hiding in plain sight. But at every turn, inspectors and regulators largely shrugged off their responsibilities, often with a crass disdain for the lives at stake.

Aside from the eight Korean officers, the crew of the Oyang 70 consisted of 36 Indonesians, six Filipinos, and one Chinese. On average, the Indonesians earned $180 per month. The officers derided the Muslims on board as “dogs” or “monkeys.” The drinking water was often brown and tasted of metal, workers would later tell investigators and lawyers. After a certain point, the only food on board for the crew was rice and the fish they caught. Men were docked pay if they ate too slowly. The crew described the ship as “a floating freezer”; the heater on board barely worked. The shared toilet lacked running water. There were so many roaches that a crew member later said he could smell roaches cooking as they fell onto the hot engine block.

The Oyang 70 was known as a stern trawler, towing a long, cylindrical net from behind. The ship’s most intense work happened in the dark because blue whiting is a schooling fish that lives near the seabed, more easily caught at night when it feeds on plankton, small shrimp, and krill closer to the surface. As the crew struggled with the net on August 18, everyone on board knew it was more fish than the boat could handle. No one knew by how much, though, because there were no batteries in the net’s weight sensors. The cost of replacing the ship’s trawl net was more than $150,000. The price of losing a net full of fish would be the captain’s job.

A typical captain would have immediately identified how dangerous the situation aboard the Oyang 70 had become. Like fighter pilots, deep-sea fishing captains are as much born as made. It takes a rare, almost instinctual calm and spatial acuity to steady a 1,870-ton ship while reading the tides, countering gusts, and directing a dozen men scrambling on deck. This is especially true when hoisting a hundred-ton net, which has to be carefully centered behind the ship.

the Indonesians had snuck off the ship while the captain was still asleep. Because they were Muslim, the men had wandered the streets looking for a mosque; finding none, they took refuge in the church instead. One by one, the men described to church officials and later to government investigators their captivity on a ship of horrors. A chief engineer broke a deckhand’s nose for inadvertently bumping into him. Another officer punched a crew member in the head so often that he lost part of his vision. Insubordinate crew were sometimes locked in the refrigerator. Others were forced to eat rotten fish bait. On good days, shifts lasted 20 hours. Sometimes they worked for 48 hours straight. “I often thought about asking for help,” Andi Sukendar, one of the Indonesian deckhands, said in court papers. “But I didn’t know who to ask.” The worst part, the men said, was the sexual assaults, mostly at the hands of a sadistic bosun named Wongeun Kang. The 42-year-old Korean stole their clothing as they bathed so that he could chase them as they ran naked back to their bunks. In the galley, he approached the men from behind and jabbed them with his exposed erection. When they passed him in the halls, he grabbed their genitals. Other Korean officers made advances, the crewmen said, but none were as aggressive as the bosun. He assaulted deckhands while they showered. He climbed into their bunks at night when they were sleeping. “The bosun tried to teach me how to have sex with him but I refused,” one crew member recounted. Others were not able to stave him off.

I wish I could say I was surprised by these reports. But what I read was sickeningly familiar. The expanse of the sea and the dictatorial power of officers over crews allow cruel and abusive behavior that is often only uncovered when a ship sinks. Workers on Sajo Oyang ships described meals speckled with dead bugs and mattresses riddled with biting mites, men hiding in closets from violent officers, and rapes that occurred in nearby bunks that they felt powerless to stop. Crewmen recounted being issued torn hand-me-downs and ill-fitting boots, tattered jackets and gloves. Captains kept the sailors’ passports and certification papers to ensure they could not leave.

To get the jobs, the men often had paid over $175 in fees—more than a month’s salary for some. And as collateral, they often handed over their most prized possessions to ensure the completion of their two-year contracts: home deeds, car registrations, and in one case the land grant certificate for a community mosque. I knew that fleet owners exploited their crews, but the stories of these deckhands offered an unusually clear distillation of how they exert control, including blacklisting threats, cultural shame, and leveraging through property liens. Breaching the contracts would bring economic ruin to their families. Susanto, a deckhand on the Oyang 77, put up his elementary and junior high school graduation certificates. In his small village, such records are irreplaceable. If he failed to get the papers back, he would be unemployable. The documents were “the only things of value he had,” one affidavit said.

News of the scams and abuse in this work rarely made it back to the small villages where new crew members were recruited because those who had been tricked were too ashamed to talk about it and to warn others. Even those who knew the risks were willing to try their luck because they were desperate for work.

The 501 had embarked from Busan, South Korea’s southernmost port. Under a fisheries deal with Russia, it was one of six South Korean trawlers allowed to catch pollack, best known as the main ingredient of the McDonald’s Filet-O-Fish sandwich. Pollack is also a popular dish in South Korea, which has at least twenty-eight names for the fish depending on its age, size, and location. South Korea began trawling for pollack in the Bering Sea in the late 1970s and early 1980s after depleting the stocks in its own waters.

Even though I had reported on quite a few grim industries over the years (coal mining, long-haul trucking, sex work, garment and glue factories), I was still stunned by the conditions on fishing boats. There were some obvious explanations—the lack of unions, the confining and transient nature of the job, and the vast distance from shore and from government oversight. Culture certainly plays a role as well. Ships are masculine and military-like arenas. There is honor in hardship and the ability to endure it without complaint. Governance on board is rigidly hierarchical and decidedly undemocratic. Feedback from the rank and file is generally unwelcome. Silence is core to the way of life on ships, and breaking it can be a dangerous crime. Perhaps the best advice I heard early during my reporting came from a British first mate. “You want to fit in?” he said as we left port. “Take up as little space as possible.” His counsel was less about the cramped living quarters than about the social risk of idle chatter. A respect for this silence, a comfort with it, the ability to use it at the right moments, was possibly the single most valuable tool I picked up during my reporting, because it was the key that allowed me to access people and places.

I came to admire mariners’ quiet self-possession and their comfort with these long silences, some of which seemed to last for days. Over time, I also came to respect the silence itself, particularly in contrast to the world back home, where so much of my life was online, a place prone to oversharing and immediate gratification. Life on these ships, on the other hand, was so utterly off-line and defined by privacy, quiet, and waiting. And yet I also wondered if this silence was what made mariners so famously gruff and frequently ill-suited for life back onshore. If nothing else, this silence was the backdrop for an almost theological resignation that many seafarers had about their fate. Many deckhands, especially in Indonesia, knew about what happened to the Oyang crew, and it seemed almost to bolster the grim inevitability that many of them perceived in this profession.

Abortion ships

Determining whether activity at sea constitutes a crime often depends, in a sense, on where in the water it happens. A provision in maritime law treats a ship in international waters like a floating embassy, in effect a detached chunk of the land whose flag it flies. That means the laws that apply on board are only those from the country where the ship is registered.

Few people are as adept at capitalizing on such loopholes in maritime law as Rebecca Gomperts. The Dutch doctor and founder of Women on Waves traverses the globe in a converted medical ship carrying an international team of volunteer doctors that provides abortions in places where it has been criminalized. Running these often-clandestine missions since the early years of the twenty-first century, Gomperts has repeatedly visited the coasts of Guatemala, Ireland, Poland, Morocco, and a half dozen other countries, dangerously skating the edge of federal and international law. Where a country’s federal law may forbid abortions, the jurisdiction of that law only reaches the limits of national waters or, twelve miles from shore. At the thirteen-mile mark, where international waters begin, abortion is legal on Gomperts’s ship because it flies the flag of Austria, where the procedure is permitted.

Mexico has for centuries been a Roman Catholic stronghold. Since late in the first decade of the twenty-first century, dozens of Mexican women have been reported by family, hospital staff, or others for having an abortion and were later prosecuted for the crime. Abortion remains illegal, but an estimated one million women find clandestine ways to undergo the procedure each year. More than a third of those typically lead to complications, including infection, tearing of the uterus, hemorrhaging, or cervical perforation, according to research by the Guttmacher Institute,

Hundreds of women have been jailed after seeking medical care due to botched abortions. Hospitals were expected to report suspicious miscarriages to the police just as they would gunshot wounds.

In April 2007, Mexico City decriminalized abortion, allowing the termination of pregnancies without restriction during the first 12 weeks of gestation. That triggered a backlash across the country. At least half of the country’s 31 states passed constitutional amendments declaring that life begins at conception.

Globally, more than twenty million women annually have “unsafe” abortions, and about 47,000 of them die each year as a result, according to the World Health Organization

Stowaways

Over a thousand stowaways are caught each year hiding on ships. Hundreds of thousands more are sea migrants, like those desperately fleeing North Africa and the Middle East on boats crossing the Mediterranean. For the people making these crossings, few routes are as perilous. In interviews, half a dozen stowaways compared their experience to hiding in the trunk of a car for days, weeks, or months traveling to an unknown place across the most brutal of terrains. Temperatures are extreme. It is impossible to bring enough food or water.

To get on board, some stowaways posed as stevedores or deck cleaners. Others swam under the stern and squeezed through a space where the rudder meets the ship. Many brought “stowaway poles”—long bamboo sticks with toeholds and a hook—that they used to scale the sides of ships. Supply boats bringing fuel or food to anchored vessels also sometimes carried uninvited passengers. After sneaking on board, they would hide in hulls or shipping containers, crane cabs or tool trunks.

Refrigerated fishing holds became uninhabitable, exhaust pipes heated up, shipping containers were sealed and fumigated. Maritime newsletters and shipping insurance reports offered a macabre accounting of the victims: “crushed in the chain locker,” “asphyxiated by bunker fumes,” “found under a retracted anchor.” Most often, though, death came more slowly. Vomiting from seasickness led to dehydration. People passed out from exhaustion or starvation.

I contacted Edward Carlson, a maritime and trade lawyer based in New York, who worked on many cases involving stowaways. He added that stowaways are often savvy and skilled adversaries to captains or the shipping companies left with figuring out how to handle them. Many stowaways know, for example, that if they allege that they were assaulted by the crew, they can tie up a ship with a long investigation in port, leading to delays costing millions of dollars, Carlson said. “You have a tanker carrying $200 million worth of crude for Exxon or Mobil, tugs, supply boats, dock agents, an entire port refinery scene waiting to unload it in an extremely tight window of time before that ship needs to clear the berth,” Carlson said. “Then you have a fifteen-year-old kid who could delay the entire thing.

Some stowaways are “frequent fliers,” who are caught multiple times, Rabitz explained. To pin down their nationality, Rabitz’s staff consists of speakers of nearly a dozen languages, including an array of Arabic and African dialects. The stowaway’s accent, word choice, and facial features usually give away his home country, he said.  Once the stowaway acquiesces in leaving, he is usually escorted on the flight home. A guard or two are also often sent on the flight.

I got in touch with Mansoor Adayfi, a former terrorism suspect and detainee from the Guantánamo Bay prison. He knew and had written about many of the other people held there, and I wanted his opinion about the use of the high seas for interrogation. He explained that many of the Afghans held at Guantánamo Bay had no knowledge of the ocean. To them, the sea was a fearsome beast, he said. “All that the Afghans knew was that it was a lot of water that killed and ate people,” he told me, adding that American interrogators took advantage of this. “?‘When we finish with you here, you will be taken to the sea and you all will be thrown there,’?” he recounted them saying. I believed the anecdote if only because it was, after all, the job of these interrogators to instill fear in their detainees so as to leverage them for information. The ocean was not just a convenient location for holding suspects, Adayfi said. “It was also a powerful psychological tool for getting information from these same suspects.” Most of the detainees at Guantánamo were held in outdoor cells, which happened to be only a couple hundred yards from the water’s edge, but none of the detainees could see the ocean fully because the surrounding fences were covered in tarps. They stole glimpses, though, through the slivers of openings at the bottom of the tarps.

Time and again, I had stumbled across men on broken ships anchored far from shore. These men were abandoned but unable to leave their ships. The backstory was usually the same: Having stretched their resources to the limit, cash-strapped shipowners declared bankruptcy. Cutting their losses, they disavowed their ships, stranding crew members who were usually still on board the ship far off at sea or anchored in a foreign port. Like the Flying Dutchman, these men were left to roam or sit and wait, sometimes for years. Usually, they lacked the immigration papers to come ashore and the resources to get home. Annually, there were thousands of these men globally languishing at sea, slowly falling apart, physically and mentally. Some of these men died, typically while trying to swim to shore.

In Athens, Greece, while exploring how ships are stolen by maritime repo men and corrupt port officials, I came across the crew of the Sofia—ten desperate Filipinos, marooned on an asphalt tanker, anchored half a dozen miles from shore, and unpaid for over five months.

***

In 1898, the wooden, 118-foot ship became stuck in a pack of Antarctic ice in the Bellingshausen Sea. On board were 19 men: nine sailors, two engineers, and an international team of eight officers and scientists, including a geologist, meteorologist, and anthropologist. As the sun disappeared for two months, the group hunkered down for a brutal winter. With no hope of being rescued, their true enemy was not the cold but madness. Within weeks, a crewman became paranoid and hid at night. Another announced plans to walk home to Belgium. The Belgica broke free from the ice and made it back to the port of Antwerp nearly a year later. The remaining crew members were haggard and thin, but their faculties were largely intact because the captain had imposed a rigorous regimen meant to maintain their mental health. This regimen included a “baking treatment” in which the men were required to sit in front of a warming stove for half an hour and eat a diet of foul-tasting but vitamin-rich penguin meat. There was also mandatory participation in routine exercise outside on the ice and in social gatherings, including a beauty contest between images of women torn from the ship’s magazines. News of the Belgica’s survival tactics spread among ship captains. The lesson that many of them took from the incident was that it is sometimes as important to take psychological precautions as meteorological ones. Ship captains on subsequent Antarctic excursions began packing straitjackets. Later in the twentieth century, infirmaries on many ships destined for the North or South Pole or any other long journeys also began stocking antipsychotic drugs. In 1996, an anthropologist named Jack Stuster used the journals written on the Belgica to help design the space stations. If astronauts were to survive, Stuster suggested, they would need to prepare for the melancholy and disorientation from spending long periods in extreme isolation. There was a lot to be learned from the men who had made similarly grueling voyages at sea. I was intrigued by the psychological challenges faced by the millions of other seafarers who go offshore willingly. Even under normal circumstances, the loneliness and boredom of long voyages at sea can be emotionally brutal. One study by the ITF found that over half of the six hundred mariners interviewed reported feeling depressed during their time at sea. Another study published in the journal International Maritime Health found the global percentage of suicides among seafarers while at sea was more than three times higher than that of land-based suicides in the U.K. or Australia.

Seafaring has always been an isolating profession. This intensified, though, after the September 11 attacks, when antiterrorism laws in the United States and much of Europe restricted crews’ access to ports. Crews were required to park no closer than half a mile from shore as they waited for a call from ship operators informing them of their next destination. On board, a crewman can sit, sometimes for months, within sight but out of reach of sending his wife an email, eating a decent meal, having a doctor check the toothache that keeps him up at night, or hearing his daughter’s voice on her birthday.

In many ports, dockside brothels adjusted their business models to these new norms. “Love boats,” or floating bordellos, began shuttling women or girls, along with drugs and alcohol, out to the parked ships. But the longer the men were stuck, the less such boats came calling. Everyone knew that a stranded seafarer is soon a penniless seafarer.

And yet for all the homesickness involved in this work, most of the mariners I interviewed said they were reluctant to leave their ships, even in the face of abuse or abandonment. Often, there was shame in returning home unpaid. On land, these men were spouses, fathers, and sons. At sea, they had a rank that carried status. With this status came strict rules, and abandoning their post was a violation of the highest order. Seafarers were overwhelmingly male, and their ship, almost always called “she,” had a distinct emotional hold over them. They loved her as much as they resented her. Having traveled together, grown annoyed with each other, protected each other, these men often said their ship was as much a wife as a workplace to them.

Virtually all of the stranded men said that once they found their way home, they hoped to go back to sea. This seemed puzzling in light of what they’d been through. Obviously, necessity was driving them: it’s a decent-paying job where options are few. But there is also a pull to life offshore. For all the suffering I heard about from these men, this pull seemed closer to resignation than enchantment, though powerful nonetheless. Spend enough time away from land, I was told, and you rarely come out the other side the same. “It changes you,” one of the stranded men said.

After stints at sea, I sensed in myself subtle changes in how I related to sleep, conversation, and food. On trips, I grew accustomed to extremely tight bunks, long and extreme silence, and eating whatever was put in front of me, most often half-cooked fish and barely boiled rice. When I got home, I noticed I ate faster, more dutifully than for enjoyment. I snuggled with my wife tighter in bed, uncomfortable with the extra space. I tired faster of talking, wanting more often to withdraw behind my headphones. A grumpier version of my former self returned to shore each time.

The biggest change, though, I felt in my stomach. During several years of reporting at sea, I grappled with a worsening case of what some mariners called sway. Others referred to it as dock rock, land sickness, reverse seasickness, or mal de débarquement (French for “disembarkation sickness”). As important as it was to get your sea legs when adjusting to life on a ship, it was equally essential to restore your land legs when you returned to shore. Sometimes, though, re-acclimating was difficult, and the result was as bizarre as it was nauseating. The minute I stepped back on land, I started feeling sick.

The experience was akin to drunken bed spins. My head felt like a bobbing buoy as my body’s vestibular system, the internal gyroscope for balancing, created a persistent rocking sensation. In a spatial equivalent of jet lag, my body clung to the memory of a place it had already left. Usually people who are least susceptible to seasickness are most vulnerable to land sickness. I never once threw up on a ship due to seasickness, but I twice vomited after stepping on land. The longer the stay offshore and the rougher the waters, the more stubborn the sway was when I got home. Sometimes it lasted days. Working at sea was not my lifelong profession, of course; I was a mere visitor, a land creature passing through. Unlike many of the men I interviewed, I always had the option to leave. Still, this strange disorder instilled in me a respect for the sea’s grasp. It changed me—not just psychologically, but also physiologically. I had to imagine it also changed the many mariners I’d met.

If insurance fraud was the goal, the glossary offered a tried-and-true tactic. A corrupt operator hired a crew to take the ship to sea, where the ship would ostensibly break down. The operator then arranged for the vessel to hire a mechanic who was in on the scheme and deemed scuttling as the only affordable option. The mechanic and the ship operator then split the insurance money from the scuttling, and the operator re-flagged and renamed

The glossary also provided some helpful guidance for changing a pilfered ship’s identity. To sever ties between a ship and its past, the document suggested removing all tracking devices that might be built into the ship’s console or hull. Get rid of anything on the vessel with its name written on it, including life jackets, bridge paperwork, buoys, stationery, and lifeboats, the glossary advised. “Replace the ship’s first or build name,” it said, which is usually welded onto both sides of the bow and on the stern in foot-high, raised steel letters. “Don’t forget the serial plate on the ship’s main engine,” the document added, because it’s a favorite way for investigators to trace a stolen ship’s original identity.

Most of Zolotas’s fleet of half a dozen ships, including the Sofia, were tankers carrying bitumen, or liquefied asphalt. Bitumen, which looks like thick black paint, is used primarily to build roads, so the market for this product is global. But the ships that carry it are expensive to maintain, because the bitumen has to be kept heated at all times or else it solidifies.

TCA was not the only one to pounce on Zolotas’s assets. In Savannah, Georgia, U.S. marshals stormed one of his sugar freighters called the Castellano, ordering it to stay put due to unpaid debt. In Baltimore, the U.S. Coast Guard detained one of his asphalt tankers called the Granadino, ostensibly because it had stranded a dozen of its crew. Another Zolotas tanker called the Iola sat in the port of Drammen in Norway as creditors argued over it. The crew on the Katarina, also a bitumen carrier, had taken matters into their own hands, seizing control of the ship to demand back wages.

The net around Zolotas’s properties was tightening fast, and if the Sofia was arrested in Greek waters, neither the bankers nor the unpaid Filipino crew on the ship could expect to see their money anytime soon. The Greek legal system was not known for its efficiency or for being sympathetic to foreign lenders or crews.

I learned that over the prior two decades Hardberger had seized more than two dozen ships and he had a reputation for taking on the toughest of grab-and-dash jobs, usually on behalf of banks, insurers, or shipowners.  I asked him to describe the ruses he had used over the years for boarding ships. “Let’s see here,” he responded, his face lighting up as if I’d asked a grandfather to show me photographs of his grandchildren. Most often, he explained, he posed as an interested buyer, a port official, or a charterer. He plied guards with booze and distracted them with prostitutes; spooked port police with witch doctors; and duped night watchmen into leaving their posts by lying to them about a relative being hospitalized.

People often took ships to Miragoane to give them new identities. The port was remote and relatively unpatrolled, its waters deep and ideal for bigger vessels. Someone who wanted a fast makeover and new paperwork for a stolen boat could have it done in under two days—removing all names, prying loose the serial plate from the engine, and welding off the original metal name. As we wound our way down Miragoane’s narrow boulevards choked with motorbike traffic and lined with food stalls selling griyo (fried pork) and lambi an sòs kreyol (conch in creole sauce), Hardberger explained the simple math of giving a ship a new identity. “All you need is about $300, four welders, and a fax machine,” he said. “But especially the $300.

Bribery is ubiquitous in many developing-world countries, but nowhere is it more pervasive than at their ports. Harbormasters wield unusual power. Inspectors can detain a ship for any number of reasons, including the condition of the hull, the size of the sleeping quarters, and the legibility of the logbooks. In poorer countries, keeping a ship in port as long as possible is an easy way to boost the local economy. Even if an inspector does not directly profit by detaining a ship, his relatives and friends will, selling fuel, food, repairs, and booze to the crew stranded in port.

The port of Lagos in Nigeria has one of the worst reputations for bribery, perhaps because for many years a ship required more than 130 signatures from inspectors before it could off-load any international cargo.

Although stealing a ship is sometimes the goal of maritime scams, most port corruption consists of “squeeze and release” bilking schemes. Corrupt local authorities typically used this tactic to detain a ship just long enough to extort fees. And their pretexts varied: from inflated repair bills and fake docking charges to bogus liens, or trumped-up environmental violations. “But squeeze long enough and you strangle,” Lindsay added. Even an idle cargo ship can cost up to $10,000 per day to support. Shipping businesses go bankrupt as waiting cargo spoils, delivery deadlines pass, and owed wages accumulate. Sometimes these detentions are part of a broader plot to take ownership of the vessel through a hastily convened public auction or judicial sale.

More than 90% of the world’s goods, from fuel to food to merchandise, is carried to market by sea, and bribery in ports adds hundreds of millions of dollars each year in unofficial import taxes and added costs of cargo and ship fuel, which in turn raise transport costs, insurance rates, and sticker prices by more than 10 percent.

There are also geopolitical costs to the world’s vast “phantom fleet” of purloined ships, which are virtually impossible to track as they are used to carry out a broad array of crimes. In Somalia, Yemen, and Pakistan, for example, phantom vessels are used to transport fighters tied to Islamic militant groups, and they were used in 2012 by the terrorists who attacked Mumbai. In Iran and Iraq, phantom ships have been popular for circumventing international oil or weapons embargoes. Elsewhere they are typically used for other purposes: in Southeast Asia, human trafficking, piracy, and illegal fishing; in the Caribbean, smuggling guns and drugs; and off the coast of West Africa, transporting illegal bunker.

Ship sales are also more anonymous and final than sales of other types of property. This is one reason why ship purchases are a popular method for laundering money and dumping assets that corrupt individuals or corporations don’t want governments to find and tax. Because a ship may be bought in one country, flagged to another, and parked in a third, it becomes difficult for countries to trace the origins of the money invested in a ship.

The anonymity of ship trading also makes stealing easier. If the rightful owner can catch up with a stolen painting, car, or artifact at an auction, he can make a claim and, in many cases, repossess his property. Such redress is far more difficult under international maritime law. A vessel sold at a judicial auction is deemed in industry parlance to have had its “face washed” clean of liens and other previous debts, including mortgages. Police struggle to chase stolen ships. In most cases, marine authorities can pursue, intercept, board, and seize a foreign-flagged ship on the high seas only if the pursuit started in the authorities’ territorial waters and they kept the fleeing vessel in visual contact the entire time. In many courts of law, visual contact means neither satellite nor radar observation but actual line of sight with the human eye. From the bridge of a ship, that’s usually about seven miles in clear weather.

If a chase starts on the high seas, it’s even more fraught. Except under special circumstances, a ship may only be stopped in international waters by a warship of its own flag or with permission granted from the fleeing ship’s flag state. Liberia, the country with the most vessels sailing under its flag—more than 4100—has no warships. The country with the second most, Panama, does not routinely operate warships beyond its own coast. Therein lies the beauty of international ship thievery: crooks only have to run if someone’s chasing them, and that’s rarely the case.

Tens of thousands of vessels, from minuscule to massive, are stolen around the world each year. Finding them is far more difficult than it might seem. Once it’s on the move, a stolen ship can travel thousands of miles in under a week. Investigators post reward notices, comb sale listings, and contact port officials. Seeking clues, they publish fake job advertisements and call on the relatives, ex-wives, or jilted girlfriends of the ship’s former crew. Sometimes, they send up planes, hire speedboats, and alert shipping companies to keep watch. These tactics rarely work. Unlike pilfered cars, which tend to stay in the country where they’re taken, and planes, which are tracked more closely because of terrorism fears, stolen ships are among the toughest types of property to recover. Even domestic recoveries of boats in the United States are difficult because the relevant databases are not well connected across states and they have less information than the ones dedicated to automobiles.

he tried to avoid recovering stolen vessels while they were in “unfriendly” ports because the criminals who took them tended to have friends in the local government. As an alternative, he cited an example where his men posed as drug enforcement agents to board a suspect ship on the high seas. Dalby’s team secretly placed a tracker on the vessel and, after disembarking, waited for it to enter Indonesian waters, where he had friends in law enforcement who were willing to arrest it. Devising a plan for sneaking a ship out of port typically starts with surveillance, several repo men told me. Watch long enough and there is almost always a thirty-minute block each day, typically during the guards’ shift change, when the vessel is unmanned. Most extraction teams need less than fifteen minutes to board a vessel, the repo men said. But getting it out of port takes longer because larger ships have engines that need half an hour or more to warm up. For surreptitious boarding, repo men said that they need little more than a headlamp and a knotted rope attached to a grappling hook. It’s helpful to wrap this metal hook with a cloth to muffle the clank when it lands on the ship’s metal railing, one of the repo men added.

Whenever possible, Hardberger preferred to talk his way on board, using the collection of fake uniforms and official-sounding business cards he maintains. Among them: “Port Inspector,” “Proctor in Admiralty,” “Marine Surveyor,” “Internal Auditor,” and “Buyer’s Representative.” If he could win himself a formal tour from the ship’s crew, Hardberger wears glasses with a built-in video camera. He also leaves a tape recorder on the bridge in some corner where it will go unnoticed so he can capture what officers say when he is not in the room, and then he picks it up at the end of his tour. To verify the identity of the ship, he checks the engine serial number, which thieves often forget to remove. If he can get private access to the engine room, Hardberger carries a glass vial of magnetic powder to sprinkle on the hull where the ship’s original or “build” name has often been pried off. The shadow of the name still shows up because welding it off changes the metal’s valence, which makes the magnetic powder adhere differently.

Sometimes getting a ship out of port requires a clever diversion. Repo men hire local politicians to close nearby roads, street youth to set alley fires, or bar owners to host grand parties on the opposite side of town. Hardberger said the worst thing he had ever done to get a guard off a ship was to pay someone to lie to him, saying the guard’s mother had just been hospitalized. More often, he said, he preferred to hire prostitutes. “They’re the best actors because they have a lifetime of practice,” he observed.

Manning agencies like Step Up Marine handle everything from paychecks and plane tickets to port fees and passports. These agencies are also poorly regulated and frequently abusive. When mariners get trafficked—transported from job to job against their will, often driven by debt, coercion, or scams—manning agencies are often to blame. Taking that blame is part of their job, in fact. These firms provide ship operators plausible deniability and easy deflection of responsibility—an even more valuable role than the logistical support they offer. Indeed, manning agencies take the blame but are rarely held accountable because they tend to be in places far away from where the workers live and from where the abuses occur.

If Andrade’s experience was like that of the other Filipino men from his village whom I interviewed, he was probably told when he arrived at the Step Up Marine office in Singapore that a mistake had been made and that his pay would be less than half of what he had been promised. Forget that original quote of $500 per month. The new salary was $200 per month, which would shrink even further when the company factored in “necessary deductions.

Half a dozen other men from Andrade’s village—who prosecutors said were also recruited by Step Up Marine—described how they were required to sign a new contract, which typically stipulated a three-year binding commitment. The contract also specified that there would be no overtime, no sick leave, eighteen- to twenty-hour workdays, six-day workweeks, and a $50 monthly food deduction and that captains were granted full discretion over reassigning crew members to alternate ships. Wages were to be paid not monthly to families but in full only after completion of the contract, a practice that is illegal in most countries.

The document noted that to collect their wages, crew members had to fly back to Singapore at their own expense.

Over the past decade, no country has exported more seafarers annually than the Philippines, which provided roughly a quarter of the crews on merchant ships globally, despite comprising less than 2 percent of the world’s population. By 2017, the Philippines was sending roughly a million workers—about 10 percent of its population—abroad annually.  These workers, who collectively sent more than $20 billion a year on average back home, were in high demand because many spoke English, they tended to be better educated than workers from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and India, and they had a reputation for being compliant.

if a Filipino housekeeper in Kuwait was raped by her employer, she could go to the Philippine embassy for help. “At sea, on the other hand,” he said, “there are no embassies.

the Obama administration realized that the U.S. government had no central governing body to make decisions about how to chart and manage this offshore territory. Altering this reality posed a threat to the drilling and fishing industries, which lobbied aggressively against the federal efforts to exert more control over this region, as they had in the past. These industries viewed mapping the oceans as a precursor to zoning them, which would likely lead to greater limits on the industries’ reach. In April 2017, President Trump revoked Obama’s executive order.

Over the past decade, roughly half the murders of environmentalists worldwide took place in Brazil.

Further destruction awaits the bycatch in trawling. Fishing crews discard much of what they net because there’s no market for the fish or because the fish are simply too small or too squashed. In 2008, Greenpeace set up its sites on the North Sea. To stop a fleet of German trawlers, Greenpeace spent months strategically placing more than a hundred stone boulders on the ocean floor near Germany around the perimeter of the Sylt Outer Reef, which the fishermen were rapidly leveling. In port, everyone knew what Greenpeace was up to (it’s tough to hide objects that huge), but as is often the case with maritime matters, it wasn’t clear whether its actions were illegal. So, no one knew whether and how to intervene and stop it. Weighing a little over three tons each, the boulders were roughly the size of a two-door refrigerator—big enough to destroy trawlers’ nets if they were dragged over the boulders. Using cranes, Greenpeace lifted each, one by one, and dropped them to the seafloor in designated spots. Hoping to stop the trawling, not to destroy the fishermen’s expensive nets, Greenpeace provided local authorities and fishing boat captains with updated charts, showing where it was placing the boulders. By 2011, Greenpeace was using the same tactic in the North Sea off the coast of Sweden.

Advances in drilling technology have made previously untouchable Arctic reserves accessible, and countries are fighting over rights to tap these resources. Drilling occurs now so far offshore that rigs can no longer be anchored to the seabed because it is too deep to be practical. Instead, they are held in place by propellers, each as big as a school bus. Their locations far from shore mean these drilling rigs are no longer fully subject to the territorial laws of the countries for which they’re drilling.

Barents Sea, off the north coast of Russia and Finland. Statoil, the partly state-run Norwegian oil company, had parked a drilling rig called the Songa Enabler in the Korpfjell oil field there. Like the drilling planned off the coast of Brazil at the mouth of the Amazon River, the project near Norway represented a new level of risk-taking by the oil industry. No company had ever tried to drill this far north into the Arctic. Statoil’s well was even more controversial because it was located in international waters, over 258 miles north of mainland Norway. Located in the Barents Sea off the north coast of Russia and Finland, an oil-drilling rig called the Songa Enabler sits in international waters, the farthest north incursion into Arctic waters by a drilling company.

Despite its reputation for having especially protective environmental policies, Norway depended on oil and gas production for roughly 40 percent of its export revenue, and it wasn’t about to give up a significant portion of that to placate some pesky environmental group.

Stella Maris offers social services to seafarers and their families. I was in Songkhla because the social workers at Stella Maris said they would help me meet victims of trafficking and introduce me to the officials charged with investigating those abuses. As I waited to meet Long, I spent hours at the Stella Maris office poring through a binder full of case files. It was a horrifying catalog of cruel abuses, torture, and murder at sea. In page after page, in photographs and scribbled notes, the documents described the sick being cast overboard, the defiant beheaded, and the insubordinate sealed for days below deck in a dark, fetid fishing hold.

Surviving these ordeals often depended upon chance encounters with altruistic strangers who contacted Stella Maris or other groups involved in the clandestine rescue of sea slaves, part of a mariners’ underground railroad stretching through Malaysia, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Thailand.

Som Nang had worked on a type of boat known as a mother ship. Carrying everything from fuel and extra food to spare nets and replacement labor, these lumbering vessels, often over a hundred feet long, functioned as the Walmarts of the ocean—floating, all-purpose resupply stores. The same kind of boat delivered Long to captivity and subsequently rescued him as well. Mother ships were the reason slow-moving trawlers could fish more than fifteen hundred miles from land. They allowed fishermen to stay out at sea for months or years and still get their catch cleaned, canned, and shipped to American shelves less than a week after netting.

Once a load of fish was transferred to a mother ship, it was combined with other catch below deck in cavernous refrigerators, and there was almost no way for port authorities to determine its provenance. It became virtually impossible to know whether it was caught legally by paid fishermen or poached illegally by shackled migrants.

During his several years of captivity in the Thai fishing fleet, Lang Long was shackled by the neck and sold between fishing boats.

the catch per unit effort, or CPUE, is an indirect measure of the abundance or scarcity of a target species. In both the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, on Thailand’s western side, the CPUE on fishing boats fell by more than 86 percent between the mid-1960s and the early years of the twenty-first century, making Thai waters among the most overfished on the planet. Even though there were fewer fish to catch, Thai boats were catching more, partly by traveling to more distant waters.

Globally, fishing boats had to venture farther just to break even. Fuel costs typically eat up at least 60% of a long-haul vessel’s earnings, double what it did two decades ago.

Most deep-sea fishing ships around the world work on commission. “Crews only get paid if we catch enough,” Tang explained. This means tensions run high on the boats, and captains fear their crews as intensely as they drive them. Language and cultural barriers add further divisions; most boats have three Thai officers (the captain, the engineer, and the first mate), while the rest are foreign migrants

Shorthanded at the eleventh hour, captains sometimes took desperate measures. “That’s when they just snatch people,” one captain explained to me with remarkable candor, referring to cases where workers were drugged or kidnapped and forcefully put on boats.

Of all the evil things I saw while reporting for this book, the karaoke bars in Ranong were perhaps the most sinister. Not only did these brokers and bar owners use one type of trafficked migrant to entrap another type of trafficked migrant, but the sex workers and their indebted clients were both, quite often, children. When I finally left Ranong, I hoped never to return.

In Kota Kinabalu, I met a thirty-eight-year-old Cambodian deckhand named Pak who said that during his year of captivity on a fishing boat he had been temporarily dropped off for several weeks on what he and other migrants called a “prison island.” One of thousands of mostly uninhabited atolls in the South China Sea, it was a place where fishing captains routinely disembarked captive workers, sometimes for weeks, while their vessels were taken to port for repair. Typically, the captain would leave the crew with a guard who was equipped with water, canned goods, and means to fish. The guard ensured that the men were fed and that none of them tried to leave with another boat. Pak did not know the name of the atoll where he was left, but he said there were other crews there, being sold between boats or waiting for their next deployment.

A Thai man whom she helped return home from an Indonesian island called Ambon. He had fled a ship and survived in the woods for nearly a year by eating dogs and cats that he captured at night from villages.

Cruise liner pollution

Keays was on his second stint on the ship, which was 23 miles from its destination in Southampton, England, when he went exploring in the engine room. A cavernous three-story maze of tangled metal with massive shiny pipes big enough that a small child could crawl through them, the engine room was located in the bowels of the ship and staffed by four dozen men who were surrounded by dozens of pulsing machines and glowing monitors. Venturing into an unfamiliar section where he did not typically work, Keays saw something that swiftly soured his exuberance over his new job: an illegal device known in the industry as a magic pipe. From his marine studies in Glasgow, Keays knew exactly what he was looking at. Several feet long, the pipe stretched from a nozzle on a carbon filter pump to a water tank. Its magic trick? Making the ship’s used oil and other nasty liquids disappear. Rather than storing the highly toxic effluent and unloading it at port, as the ship was legally required to do, the pipe was secretly flushing the waste into the ocean, saving the ship’s owner, Carnival Corporation, millions of dollars in disposal fees and port delays.

Cruise liners also produce millions of gallons of oily water. This is the runoff of lubricants and leaks that drip from the ship’s many diesel generators, air compressors, main propulsion engines, and other machines and that drain into the ship’s bilge tanks. Other liquid wastes accumulate, too. “Black water” refers to sewage from hundreds of toilets flushing day in and day out. “Gray water” comes from washing dishes and clothing for the thousands of passengers aboard, or from the slimy food scraps and grease from the ship galleys and restaurants. Some of these liquids can be released into the ocean after light treatment, but ship engineers are responsible for ensuring that none of the nastiest fluids get discharged. Sometimes, though, these engineers and their companies resort to magic pipes to make those fluids disappear.

In subsequent court papers, Carnival called the Caribbean Princess an isolated case. But oil logs from the company’s other ships, also disclosed in court records, indicated that oil dumping was a widespread practice and that on occasion engineers on other Carnival ships tricked the monitoring equipment by pulling in the same volume of salt water to replace the liquids they dumped.

On the Caribbean Princess, the company had installed three separate machines to monitor and collect waste oil, well beyond what was required by law. Carnival often pointed to the additional machines as proof of its commitment to environmental stewardship. Meanwhile, onboard engineers had devised systems to bypass each of the three monitors. After discovering these ruses, federal prosecutors wrote that Carnival, whose income in 2016 was roughly $2.7 billion, had a “high consciousness of guilt.” In 2016, a federal judge levied a $40 million fine against the company, the largest penalty of its type in nautical history.

A hundred years ago, what happened on the Caribbean Princess would have been a nonissue, and the idea of fines might have been laughable. The practice of ships dumping oil and other waste at sea was perfectly legal for most of maritime history. And dump we did. After World War II, Russia, the U.K., and the United States loaded about a million tons of unexploded mustard gas bombs and other chemical munitions onto ships, which were dispatched offshore to scuttle the matériel overboard.

Other waste disposal

More than a dozen countries, including the United States, the U.K., and the Soviet Union, dumped nuclear sludge and unwanted reactors, several still containing their radioactive fuel, into the Arctic, the North Atlantic, and the Pacific Oceans. The practice was only banned in 1993, at which point the remaining business shifted to an underworld of global waste traders operating in the Mediterranean, Southeast Asia, and off the coast of Africa. The most infamous of these syndicates was the ‘Ndrangheta, a criminal organization from Calabria, Italy, which sank hundreds of drums of radioactive waste in the Mediterranean and off the coast of Somalia, according to criminal prosecutors and journalists who investigated the matter.

Airborne pollution is a less visible but even more destructive form of ocean dumping. Over the past two centuries, the concentration of mercury in the top three hundred feet of the oceans has tripled because of human activity, especially the burning of coal. Likewise, carbon dioxide levels in the air have risen about 25% since 1958. A great deal of this extra carbon dioxide has dissolved in the oceans, thereby dangerously spiking carbon levels. Carbon dioxide dissolves in water to create carbonic acid and perilously high acidity levels across the world’s oceans.

Many governments give big industries permission to use the ocean for waste disposal on a grand scale. Off the southwest coast of Indonesia’s West Nusa Tenggara province near Bali, for example, a four-foot-diameter pipe runs from the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine into the Indian Ocean. The pipe spews 160,000 tons a day of a toxic sludge, consisting of heavy metals and pulverized mine cuttings, called tailings, into the ocean. At least sixteen mines in eight countries, including Papua New Guinea and Norway, also get rid of mine waste by dumping it offshore.

Ships also dump inordinate amounts of human sewage. In small quantities, dilution does indeed work. But some modern cruise ships now carry thousands of people and flush more untreated waste into the sea than is handled by small-town sewage plants. In addition to this nitrogen-rich sludge from ships, urban sewers spew even larger amounts of toxic runoff into the sea, and farms produce still more in the form of animal manure and chemical fertilizers. Together, this fecund waste spawns red tides and other harmful algal blooms, some larger than California, which rob oxygen from the water, kill sea life, and sicken seafood consumers.

Consider the fate of offshore oil platforms once they reach retirement age. By 2020, thousands of these platforms, many of them constructed during a global building boom in the 1980s, will have to be decommissioned. Countries will have to decide whether to sink, remove, or repurpose them.

Some ideas of how to use these aging behemoths include high-security super-max prisons accessible only by boat, private luxury homes with 360-degree ocean views, deepwater scuba schools, fish farms, and windmill stations. The option that oil and gas companies generally prefer, because it’s cheapest, is to sink the platforms. Many scientists back this approach, too, arguing that it creates underwater marine habitats where fish can hide and mate and provides a foundation for the growth of coral reefs. Scientists also argue this solution is less expensive and carbon intensive than removing the platforms. Just renting the tugboat to tow a rig to shore for scrapping can cost more than $500,000 a day.

The argument against repurposing the platforms—for scuba hotels, fish farms, solar platforms, or anything else—was that the metal on these structures, some as long and wide as a football field, corrodes and leaches dangerous pollution over time. Sinking the rigs so that they could become scaffolding for reefs was an equally bad idea, he contended. Collapsing the rigs onto the seafloor does not actually promote aquatic life; it just attracts fish, which makes them easier capture, he said.

Renewable-energy firms have started planning wind farms, wave-energy converters, and floating solar panels in international waters. Who will be responsible for cleaning up the contraptions if they do not work, if their companies go bankrupt, or when they become obsolete, like the oil platforms in Malaysia?

there will likely be more controversial technological experiments at sea beyond the reach of most governments

The ocean may be vast, blue, and deep, but it’s still being used as a junkyard.

For larger cruise ships, the cost of properly disposing waste onshore can be more than $150,000 per year.  The cruise industry is a lucrative business. With more than 450 large ships globally, the international cruise line industry generates roughly $117 billion of revenue annually. It employs more than a million workers, who cater to nearly twenty-five million customers a year. With any enterprise on that scale, lawbreaking is inevitable. Dumping oil is by no means the only crime that occurs on these ships.

I interviewed a former firefighter who used to work on large cruise liners. He recounted how eastern European women, hired to be servers in the ship’s restaurants, were often expected to double as prostitutes for passengers and staff. If these women wanted to switch shifts or bump up to a restaurant with better tips, they had to have sex with certain managers or officers, he said. The ships had strict dress codes for staff, and the in-house laundering services functioned like an extortion racket, he explained. If you didn’t pay dues to a certain someone, parts of your uniform went missing or came back with mysterious stains on them, which would get you docked or reprimanded. Such black-market services and payoffs are standard fare in prisons,

I was curious about the country’s rare no-tolerance policy that banned all foreign boats from fishing in its waters. Other countries like New Zealand banned foreign boats from fishing in their national waters, but Indonesia was taking the extra step of sinking or blowing up the ones that it caught breaking this law.

Having arrested and sunk dozens of illegal ships since he started working with the ministry in 2000, Samson was a legend among the several hundred marine officers who worked on the thirty ships in Indonesia’s fisheries fleet. Samson patrolled the most crime-ridden outer edge of Indonesian waters, an area with bigger and more violent poacher ships than those encountered nearer to the Indonesian coast.

Built in 2005, the Macan was 117 feet long and relatively fast for its size, with a maximum speed of twenty-five knots. Most of the fishing boats Samson chased had a top speed of about eighteen knots. The Chinese boats were the exception. Not only could the bigger ones reach thirty knots, but their captains were more aggressive and known to ram their adversaries, including foreign military or police ships. This was especially worrisome for Samson because the Macan was fiberglass, rather than having a steel hull, and therefore easier to sink. The Macan tried to make up for this Achilles’ heel by being better armed than most other Indonesian fishery boats. Its forward deck had a mount for a formidable 12.7 mm deck gun, and its crew carried submachine guns.

The one big difference was that Palau’s fisheries force had one patrol boat; Indonesia had thirty. The size of Indonesia’s enforcement effort meant that Pudjiastuti’s forces were making a lot of arrests—several hundred boats per year, which was creating logistical difficulties, like how to handle the thousands of men being removed from these boats.

Not unlike frontiers on land, border zones at sea were notoriously dodgy places. The ones with three-way intersections were especially attractive to fish poachers, human smugglers, gunrunners, and sellers of illegal bunker fuel because they knew that if they were chased by authorities from one country, they could flee in two other directions—a pickpocket’s hideout with easy exits.

Far from comprehensive, the database offered a cursory snapshot of lawlessness at sea. Typically, the death tolls captured in the records were murky because follow-up investigations were rare and reports often lacked details. On land, police can dig up graves to investigate murders. Offshore, “the dead stay gone,” as one investigator said. The database showed, however, that in 2014, the latest year for which data was available, more than 5,200 seafarers were attacked by pirates and robbers, and more than five hundred were taken hostage in three regions alone—the western Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Guinea, and Southeast Asia. The culprits were a diverse cast of characters: rubber-skiff pirates armed with rocket-propelled grenades, night-stalking fuel thieves, and slash-and-dash bandits wielding machetes. Others used deception. Hijackers masqueraded as marine police, human traffickers posed as fishermen, and security guards moonlighted as arms dealers. I could wrap my head around most of these accounts, but some were more difficult to parse. Victims

The “team leaders” on the Resolution—most of them American, British, or South African military veterans—explained to me why more seasoned guards were important and what made gun battles at sea so different from those on land. Maritime fighting was tactically different from land combat and experience was crucial. “Between fight or flight, out here there’s just fight,” said Cameron Mouat, a guard working aboard the Resolution. There was no place to hide, no falling back, no air support, no ammunition drops. Targets were almost always fast moving. Aim was shifty because of waves. Some ships were the length of several football fields—too big, these guards contended, for a two- or three-man security detail to handle, especially when attackers arrived in multiple boats and from different directions. It had also become extremely difficult to discern what was a threat and what was not. Automatic weapons—formerly a pirates’ telltale sign—were now commonplace at sea, found on virtually all boats traversing dangerous waters, they said. Smugglers, with no intention of attacking, routinely nestled close to larger merchant ships to hide in their radar shadow and avoid being detected by coastal authorities. Innocent fishing boats also sometimes tucked behind larger ships because they churned up sea-bottom sediment that attracted fish.

“The concern isn’t just whether a new guard will misjudge or panic and fire too soon,” explained a South African guard. “It’s also whether he will shoot soon enough.” If guards hesitate too long, he said, they miss the chance to fire warning shots, flares, or water cannons or incapacitate an approaching boat’s engine. By the time you shoot in such cases, he said, the only option left is “kill shots.

Mostly, the guards complained of boredom. Though intangible, this boredom had weight, and the longer it sat on the men, the more it crushed them. Nowhere was it heavier than on these armories. Partly that was because these ships were anchored. Having a destination and being in motion lightens the pressure of time and waiting. There was also less social cohesion among armory guards compared with most ship crews. The guards came from different security teams, countries, and cultures, which heightened their skepticism of each other and led to testosterone-steeped displays of macho gruffness.

Complicating matters further, the shipping industry reacted in its own way, and the economics of that response was at times perverse. For example, freight companies and their insurers began imposing piracy fees—upwards of $23 per standard shipping container—to cover additional security costs, which on bigger ships could mean a quarter of a million dollars per trip. Even factoring in the cost of private guards and the occasional multimillion-dollar ransom payouts exacted by pirates, shipping companies and crews were sometimes profiting from the threat of Somali piracy.

In the several years after Thailand imposed stricter rules on its overseas fleet, every one of the country’s fifty-four long-haul fishing ships dropped its Thai flag, and most of them switched to Oman, Iran, Myanmar, or elsewhere.

After World War II, the country was struggling through postwar poverty, and whale meat became a crucial part of the Japanese diet, including as a staple in school lunch programs, because it was a cheap source of protein. By 1958, whaling supplied a third of all meat consumed in Japan.

I pointed out that Norway annually catches more whales than Iceland and Japan combined. “Why not focus on them?” I asked. Sea Shepherd does not interfere with other countries because they whale only in their national waters, Meyerson said. The Japanese are the only ones who still whale in distant, international waters. “And that’s where no one is policing but us,” he added.

Antarctica is also a feeding ground where everyone seems to be chasing someone else’s meal. While the Japanese hunt the whales and Sea Shepherd tries to block them, the whales track the ships hunting longline toothfish. In a phenomenon known as depredation, whales routinely shadow these boats, sometimes for hundreds of miles, waiting for their lines to fill with fish. When captains begin retrieving their catch, the churning of the winch motor that tugs the fishing line makes a distinctive sound. This sound serves as an underwater dinner bell for the whales. Before crews can pull the fish on board, the whales attack the lines, stripping them clean. On a clear day, when sound underwater travels farthest, whales can hear this dinner bell from more than fifteen miles away.

Whales stalk long-liners elsewhere, too, including off the coasts of Alaska, Washington, Chile, Australia, and Hawaii. In the western Gulf of Alaska in 2011 and 2012, killer whale depredation cost each vessel $980 per day in terms of additional fuel, crew food, and the opportunity cost of lost time, according to a study of six longline boats. The problem got worse in Alaska in the 1990s, after fishery authorities lengthened the fishing season from two weeks to eight months.

The authorities’ goal in extending the fishing season had been to discourage boat captains from taking dangerous risks as they tried to beat the weather and race the clock. But an unintended consequence of the policy was that by having boats in the water for longer, the likelihood of overlap between the whales and these boats went up. It also gave whales the time to hone their skills and pin down exactly when and how to best hijack the long-liners. “So far,” Tixier said, “we haven’t found an effective way to outsmart the whales.

A grown whale can scrape all the fish from a five-mile line in under an hour. To avoid snaring their own mouths, the whales bite off the fish just below the hooks. Sometimes all that’s left behind, he said, are fish lips dangling from the lines. More experienced whales bite the line, shaking loose the fish so they can eat them whole.  On an unlucky day, a single toothfish boat can be “assaulted” by a pack with as many as a dozen sperm whales and twenty killer whales.

There are no clear rules on how fishing boats are supposed to handle depredation. Some companies have used decoy boats to trick the whales. Others blast heavy metal music to annoy them. Some fishing captains have tried waiting the whales out, not pulling in their lines until the whales decide to leave. Other captains attach satellite devices to serial offenders to avoid them. Attempting to outrun the attackers tends to be futile because they’re too fast. When pursued by whales, some fishermen deliberately go near other boats, hoping to divert their pursuers.

Orcas are by far the worst, Infante told me, explaining that they are smarter and more persistent. Also known as killer whales, orcas are the largest apex predators on earth,

Toro-Cortés explained that in the past fishing boat captains repelled depredating whales using rifles, harpoons, and dynamite, as well as “cracker shells” and “seal bombs,” which resemble M-80 firecrackers. One study estimated that lethal responses to the whales were so common in the mid-1990s near the Crozet Islands in the southern Indian Ocean that it led to a near 70 percent reduction in the size of the killer whale population there.

Over the past decade, the krill-fishing industry has begun intensively targeting the exact locations where whales migrate to eat these animals—near the ice and continental shelves along the western side of the Antarctic Peninsula. Over the past forty years, populations of adult Antarctic krill have declined by 70 to 80 percent in those areas, studies have shown. Climate change is shrinking the pack ice where krill hide from predators and feed on plankton. Demand for krill has increased over the past decade, with catches growing 40 percent between 2010 and 2016, as the creatures are ground into fish meal to provide protein for pigs and chickens. Oils squeezed from krill are also popular as nutritional supplements, though their health benefits are still in question.

Greenpeace’s Arctic Sunrise hoped to gather evidence that the Chilean and Argentinian governments needed to support their application to create a 172,000-square-mile protected area in these waters.

To create the Antarctic marine protected area, the team of scientists would have to sway the countries that fish most heavily for krill—especially Norway, China, Russia, and South Korea. In recent years, these krill ships have drastically improved their efficiency using a newly developed method called “continuous fishing,” which uses long, cylindrical nets attached to underwater vacuums that suck the massive swarms on board.

The Australians argued that Japan’s so-called scientific whaling program was an unlawful ruse. Among the pieces of evidence the Australians presented supporting their allegation was that large amounts of the meat from the whales ended up in Japanese restaurants

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The latest monster ships could be a disaster

Preface.  The article below makes the case for the hazards of one of these enormous ships running aground or sinking, blocking a major shipping line, leaking oil, and possibly impossible to salvage.

In 2020, the largest container ship is the HMM Algeciras at 1,312 feet (400 m) long and 200 feet (61 m) wide, much larger than the Titanic, which was 882 feet long and 92 feet wide (Bell 2020).

To see where the all ships are go this marinetraffic.com link, where you can filter the map by type of ship, weight, and other parameters in the tool bar on the left side.

— Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

Gray, W. 20 November 2013. Don’t abandon ship! A new generation of monster ships will be even harder to rescue. NewScientist.

Should any of the new monster-sized ships run aground or sink, the resulting chaos could block a major shipping lane and create an environmental disaster that could bankrupt ship owners and the insurance industry alike.  With vessels of this size conventional salvage will be all but impossible. 

Despite a steady rise in air and road transport, our reliance on shipping remains overwhelming: ships move roughly 90% of all global trade, carrying billions of tons of manufactured goods and raw materials.

These monster ships are already plying the seas. There are 29 bulk carriers about 360 meters long (1181 feet). Designed to feed Brazilian iron ore to furnaces in China and Europe, each is capable of carrying up to 400,000 tons. More are on order.

The most rapid increase in size has come with container ships. In the 1990s the largest carried about 5000 shipping containers; the Maersk Mc-Kinney Møller can carry 18,000. Shipyards will soon begin work on the next generation, some 40 meters longer and capable of carrying 20,000 containers, and there are rumors of even larger vessels to come.

But with record-breaking size comes the risk of eye-watering costs should anything go wrong. Roughly 1000 serious shipping incidents occur each year, and according to a recent analysis by a group of maritime insurers, the costs of repair – or in the worst-case scenario, wreck salvage and clean-up – are set to rise rapidly. The value of a single mega-ship’s cargo, for instance, can easily exceed $1 billion, while stricter environmental legislation in many parts of the world means that should a wreck create pollution, those liable can expect to be hit with mammoth clean-up bills.

When the Costa Concordia ran aground, “The easiest and cheapest way of removing the Concordia would have been to cut her up in situ and take her away in pieces,” says Mark Hoddinott, from the International Salvage Union. However, the island of Giglio, where the Costa Concordia came to grief, is part of a marine park on one of Italy’s most environmentally sensitive coasts. As a result, the authorities insisted she be moved in one piece.  The location of the wreck was fortunate. 2380 tons of fuel were able to be removed rather than leak into the sensitive environment.

The site is close to some of the biggest shipyards in Europe, so the salvage equipment could reach the wreck quickly. It is also relatively sheltered, making the key step of fuel removal easier, and since the Costa Concordia was designed for short cruises, it only carried small amounts of fuel.

Had it been a mega-ship it would have been a different story, even in such sheltered waters, says Sloane. Such vessels carry more than 20,000 tonnes of fuel, so removing it is a major operation. And since fuel must be removed first, any delay will exacerbate the disaster. “I don’t think there’s many places in the world where you could do an operation on this sort of scale,” Sloane says.

In many ways removal of cargo containers is even harder, as these 6-meter-long boxes can be stacked up to nine deep above and below deck. The lower decks often include built-in metal guideways designed to speed up loading and unloading in harbour, but with the hull at an angle, these can jam containers together. Several recent salvage operations have sent a shuddering warning through the industry.

In 2007, for example, a container ship called Napoli ran aground in Lyme Bay on the UK’s south coast after her engine room flooded. The cold conditions meant the vessel’s 3500 tonnes of fuel had to be warmed before it could be pumped out, so almost three weeks passed before the salvage teams could begin to remove the 2300 cargo containers. Even then, salvagers had to man-handle lifting chains around each cargo container before removal so it took three and a half months to recover them all. Still unable to refloat due to damage, the hull was eventually blown apart with explosives and removed for scrap.

Worse came in 2011, when the container ship Rena ran aground off the coast of New Zealand. It was 11 days before salvors could begin controlled oil removal and a further month before the first container was removed. Eventually a giant crane was brought in but it was still slow going – just six containers per day were salvaged. Hit by bad weather, the wreck eventually broke up and the stern sank.

Compared with the latest ships, the Rena was a tiddler capable of carrying just 3351 containers, yet only 1007 were recovered in an operation that lasted more than a year. “Offshore, in a remote location, when the ship has anything over a 5-degree list, it’s almost impossible,” says Sloane. “You have to have bigger and bigger cranes, on barges, and it’s very slow and very challenging. The big ones are going to be a nightmare.”

In fact the gigantic Emma Maersk container ship has already hit trouble. In February this year, the 397-metre-long vessel lost power off the Egyptian coast. Luckily it was brought safely to port where almost 13,500 containers were unloaded in a two-week-long shore-based operation while the hull was repaired. In less favorable weather conditions and in a more remote location, things could have been very different. Industry experts suggest that unloading the cargo of a mega-ship in the open sea could take up to three years to complete, if indeed it can be done at all.

References

Bell V (2020) In pictures: World’s largest shipping container arrives in UK. Yahoo News.

Posted in Ships and Barges | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Concentrated Solar Power is unreliable, full of glitches, & has a low energy return

Source: California Energy Commission. 2018 ISEGS Annual Compliance Report. Pages 464-469 https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/Lists/DocketLog.aspx?docketnumber=07-AFC-05C&fbclid=IwAR1LS4b6wYJQsflqi1job_1ix-xPgZkZ8v_AGsDP4iiiIEJSSzCD5hIxq-Q

Preface.  Concentrating solar power (CSP) projects usually sprawl in a circle over several square miles and can cost over a billion dollars. They use mirrors and lenses to capture the high temperatures needed to efficiently produce or store electricity. Almost 100 of these plants have been built around the world.

This post has several article summaries related to the unreliability and problems

Castro (2018) concludes that because of a low capacity factor and Energy Returned on Invested, an intensive use of materials—some scarce, and the significant seasonal intermittence — the potential contribution of current CSP technologies in a future 100% RES system seems very limited.

CEC (2020) reports that Ivanpah, a 5 square mile billion dollar CSP plant is falling apart and Zhang (2016) reports that part of it caught on fire. Fialka (2020) cites a National Renewable Laboratory report that found nearly all CSP plants are unreliable and plagued with problems.

Related articles:

2016 Zhang S: A Huge Solar Plant Caught on Fire, and That’s the Least of Its Problems. wired.com

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Too expensive: New ones not being built, old ones shutting down

EIA (2021) World’s longest-operating solar thermal facility is retiring most of its capacity U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The Solar Energy Generating Systems (SEGS) facility in California’s Mojave Desert retired five of its solar plants (SEGS 3 through 7) in July 2021 and plans to retire a sixth (SEGS 8) in September 2021, based on information submitted to EIA and published in our Preliminary Electric Generator Inventory. After SEGS 8 is retired, only one solar thermal unit at SEGS will remain operating (SEGS 9). SEGS, which began operating in 1984, is the world’s longest-operating solar thermal power facility.

Solar thermal power plants use mirrors to focus sunlight onto a receiver, which absorbs and converts the sunlight into thermal energy (heat). The heat is used to drive a turbine, which produces electricity. The SEGS units are parabolic trough concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) systems, meaning that parabolic (u-shaped) mirrors capture and concentrate sunlight to heat synthetic oil in a central tube, which then boils water to create steam. The steam drives the turbine, generating electricity.

Solar thermal plants account for a relatively small share of utility-scale U.S. solar electric generating capacity. As of June 2021, the United States had about 52,600 MW of utility-scale solar capacity. Of that total, 3.3% was solar thermal; the remaining 96.7% was utility-scale solar PV.

2020 A $1 Billion Solar Plant Was Obsolete Before It Ever Went Online. Bloomberg 

The Crescent Dunes solar plant looks like something out of a sci-fi movie with 10,000 mirrors forming a spiral almost 2 miles wide that winds around a skyscraper rising above the desert between Las Vegas and Reno. The operation soaks up enough heat from the sun’s rays to spin steam turbines and store energy in the form of molten salt.

Today, it’s mired in litigation and accusations of mismanagement at Crescent Dunes, where taxpayers remain on the hook for $737 million in loan guarantees. Late last year, Crescent Dunes lost its only customer, NV Energy Inc., which cited the plant’s lack of reliability. The steam generators at Crescent Dunes require custom parts and a staff of dozens to keep things humming and to conduct regular maintenance. By the time the plant opened in 2015, the increased efficiency of cheap solar panels had already surpassed its technology, and today it’s obsolete—the latest panels can pump out power at a fraction of the cost for decades with just an occasional hosing-down.

The plant’s technology was designed to generate enough power night and day to supply a city the size of nearby Sparks, Nev. (population 100,000), but it never came close. Its power cost NV about $135 per ­megawatt-hour, compared with less than $30 per MWh today at a new Nevada photovoltaic solar farm.

The plant is mostly a punchline in a part of Nevada that’s seen its share of booms and busts. The ­nearest town, Tonopah, was the site of a silver rush in the early 1900s. It’s now home to 2,400 people, a motley collection of saloons and casinos, a mining museum, and the Clown Motel, which calls itself “America’s scariest motel” because it’s close to a cemetery and filled with creepy red-nosed tchotchkes.

Neuman S (2013) Flush With Oil, Abu Dhabi Opens World’s Largest Solar Plant. NPR.

Abu Dhabi built a new 100-megawatt concentrated solar power plant for $750 million that can provide electricity to 20,000 homes (NPR). That’s $37,500 per home. There are 132,419,000 housing units in the United States in 2011 (census.gov).  At that price, it would cost $5 trillion dollars to provide electricity to Americans using solar thermal plants, and that doesn’t include the cost of upgrading the electric grid and many other costs.

Fialka J (2020) Futuristic Solar Plants Plagued by Glitches, Poor Training. The rush to complete concentrating solar power projects led to multiple reliability problems. Scientific American.

A hectic pace of development spurred by expiring national and state incentive programs has caused multiple reliability problems among the world’s most advanced solar energy plants, according to a study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) “Concentrating Solar Power Best Practices Study”.

Hurrying to complete plants and meet operational and financial deadlines often left crews assigned to operate the plants with too little training about how to deal with glitches. There were a welter of low-tech problems including difficulties making steam, leaking salt water, cleaning mirrors and poorly designed control systems were the major complaints of plant owners.

Described as a “first-of-its-kind report,” it shows how a lack of quality controls caused cost overruns and poor preparedness dating back to 1991. That was the year when the U.S. pioneer of CSP technology, Luz International Ltd., went bankrupt after completing nine solar plants in California.

After visiting owners or operators of nearly 80% of the operating CSP plants worldwide, NREL researchers found over 1,000 problems. More than half of them were operational and maintenance issues.

Expensive problems could and often did happen, such as the need to promptly find and fix tanks that leak salt water onto a concrete floor. Once salt has leaked into the foundation, there is no mechanism to remove the salt other than removing the floor, elevating the tank, removing the foundation, replacing the foundation, replacing the floor and then lowering the tank back into place.

CEC (2020) IVANPAH SOLAR ELECTRIC GENERATING SYSTEM 2018-2019 AVIAN & BAT MONITORING PLAN. California Energy Commission.

The California Energy Commission reports that a major hailstorm damaged between 10,000 and 12,000 heliostats (reflector mirrors) of the 173,500 garage door-sized mirrors.  Replacing them will perhaps push Ivanpah into negative EROI territory. And it takes a lot of energy to move these mirrors around. Each mirror has a motor controlled by a computer, which angles the reflective surface to track the location of the sun.  All those moving parts make Ivanpah more challenging to maintain than static solar panels.

Fialka J (2020) Futuristic Solar Plants Plagued by Glitches, Poor Training The rush to complete concentrating solar power projects led to multiple reliability problems. Scientific American.

Castro, C., et al. 2018. Concentrated Solar power: actual performance and foreseeable future in high penetration scenarios of renewable energies. Biophysical economics and resource quality.

Analyses proposing a high share of concentrated solar power (CSP) in future 100% renewable energy scenarios rely on the ability of this technology, through storage and/or hybridization, to partially avoid the problems associated with the hourly/ daily (short-term) variability of other variable renewable sources such as wind or solar photovoltaic. However, data used in the scientific literature are mainly theoretical values. In this work, the actual performance of CSP plants in operation from publicly available data from four countries (Spain, the USA, India, and United Arab Emirates) has been estimated for three dimensions: capacity factor (CF), seasonal variability, and energy return on energy invested (EROI).

The authors used real data from 34 CSP plants to find actual capacity factors, which were much lower than had been assumed.

OVERALL AVERAGE: ACTUAL CF 0.15–0.3, ASSUMED 0.25 to 0.75

CSP plant Technology Storage Hours Expected CF Literature CF Real CF
Nevada Solar One Parabolic 0.5 0.2 0.42–0.51 0.18
Solana Generating Parabolic 6 0.38 0.42–0.51 0.27
Genesis Parabolic No 0.26 0.25–0.5 0.28
Martin Next Generation Parabolic No 0.24 0.25–0.5 0.16
Mohave Parabolic No 0.24 0.25–0.5 0.21
SEGS III–IX Parabolic No   0.25–0.5 0.17
Crescent Dunes Tower 10 0.52 0.55–0.71 0.14
Ivanpah 1, 2, 3 Tower No 0.31 0.25–0.28 0.19
Maricopa Dish stirling No   0.25–0.28 0.19

Table 2 United States only, not shown: UAE, Spain, and India.  Estimates of the CF of several individual CSP plants, sets of plants and global USA and Spanish CSP systems: expected values from the industry, values used in the scientific literature and the results obtained in the work for real plants

In fact, the results obtained show that the actual performance of CSP plants is significantly worse than that projected by constructors and considered by the scientific literature in the theoretical studies:

low standard EROI of 1.3:1–2.4:1, 12 other researchers gave a range of 9.6 to 67.6 (see Table 7). Given that CSP plants cost more than any other kind of RES, it’s not surprising that the EROI is so low.

Other significant issues for CSP

  • intensive use of materials—some scarce
  • Substantial seasonal intermittence.

Conclusion

Analyses proposing a high share of CSP in future 100% RES scenarios rely on the ability of this technology, through storage and/or hybridization, to partially avoid the problems associated with the hourly/ daily (short-term) variability of other renewable variable sources, such as wind or PV.

But this advantage seems to be more than offset by the overall performance of real CSP plants. In fact, the results from CSP plants in operation, using publicly available data from four countries (Spain, the USA, India, and UAE) show that the actual performance of CSP plants is shown to be significantly worse than projected by the builders and in the scientific literature which has been using theoretical numbers.  In fact, the exaggeration in scientific literature is paradoxical given that there have been publicly available data for many power plants for years.

By overestimating the capacity factor, the life cycle analyses that estimate the energy and material requirements, EROI, environmental impacts, and economic costs are exaggerated as well.

The capacity factor turns out to be quite low, on the same order as wind and PV, CSP has very low EROI, intensive use of materials—some scarce—and significant seasonal intermittence problems, with seasonal variability worse than for wind or PV in Spain and the USA, where the output can be zero for many days in winter.

Since CSP has to be put in hot deserts with a lot of sunlight, they’re vulnerable to damage from wind, dust, sand, extreme temperatures, water scarcity, and more.

Negative EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested)  

In a 1978 study by K. A. Lawrence of the Solar Research Institute, Beckmann states, “To construct a 1,000 MW solar plant needs an excessive amount of materials: 35,000 tons of aluminum, 2 million tons of concrete, 7,500 tons of copper, 600,000 tons of steel, 75,000 tons of glass, 1,500 tons of chromium and titanium, and other materials. . . . The energy that goes into the construction of a solar thermal-electric plant is, in fact, so large that it raises serious questions of whether the energy will ever be paid back.” Petr Beckmann, Why “Soft” Technology Will Not Be America’s Energy Salvation (Boulder, Colo.: Golem, 1979),p. 6

So much energy goes into and mining, materials, fabrication, delivery, maintenance and so on, that the energy returned from the solar plant is less than the energy that went into making it.

Solar Plants require 1,000 times more material than a gas-fired power plant.

Too Vulnerable

Solar farms are vulnerable to damage and destruction from:

  • High winds, tornadoes, & hurricanes
  • Storms and hail
  • Sand storms, which scour the mirrors.

Where’s the water?

They’re all located in deserts, which makes it hard to find the water needed to rinse off the mirrors.

The Abu Dhabi plant will need 600 acre-feet of groundwater to wash off dust and cool auxiliary equipment.  Desert groundwater is not renewable.

Too much space required

Central-station solar requires between five and 17 acres per megawatt (Beckmann).

Solar Two took up quite a bit of land for the power being generated. There were 1,900 mirrored panels, each one over 100 square yards, and the results were only one megawatt per 17 acres of capacity. A natural gas facility taking up that much space would generate 150 times as much power (Bradley).

Howard Hayden estimates Solar Two would need to take up 127 square miles to produce as much energy as a 1000-MWe power plant does in one year. (Hayden, p. 187).

Too few places to put it

Concentrating solar power (CSP) capacity grew by about 100 MW from 2009–2011, bringing the cumulative total to approximately 520 MW. This corresponds to approximately 0.2% of U.S. electricity demand being met by PV and 0.015% by CSP.

Solar energy contains a direct component (sunlight that has not been scattered by the atmosphere) and a diffuse component (sunlight that has been scattered by the atmosphere). This distinction is important because only the direct solar component can be focused effectively by mirrors or lenses. The direct component typically accounts for 60%–80% of surface solar insolation74 in clear-sky conditions and decreases with increasing relative humidity, cloud cover, and atmospheric aerosols (e.g., dust, urban pollution). Technologies that concentrate solar intensity—such as CSP and concentrating PV—perform best in arid regions with high direct normal irradiance. Solar technologies that do not concentrate sunlight, such as most PV and passive solar heating applications, can use both the direct and diffuse components of solar radiation and thus are suitable for use in a wider range of locations and conditions than concentrating technologies.

The solar resource available to CSP is highest in the southwestern United States and falls off in eastern and northern states. This is because CSP technologies can only effectively concentrate the direct component of solar radiation, which is highest in arid regions.

Posted in Concentrated Solar Power, Solar EROI | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Alaskan tsunamis threaten even California

Preface. A 9.1 magnitude earthquake in Alaska send a tsunami all the way to the California coast  and cause at least $10 billion in damage, forcing at least 750,000 people to evacuate flooded areas, destroy port facilities in the Bay Area and Los Angeles [ #7 and #1 ports respectively in terms of the value of import & exported goods], and send water surging up creeks, harbors and canals everywhere. An Alaskan quake of that strength would cause waves up to 24 feet high that would batter California’s low-lying coastal areas with only a few hours of warning.

Alaska tsunamis can also be set off by melting permafrost as McKittrick (2020) explains below.

Alice Friedemann www.energyskeptic.com  author of “Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy”, April 2021, Springer, “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report

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Perlman D (2013) How Alaskan quake could lead to California tsunami. San Francisco Chronicle.

Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including those generated by the 1946 magnitude (M) 8.1 Aleutian, 1960 M9.5 Chile, and 1964 M9.2 Alaska earthquakes, caused known inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast

In addition to inundation, a tsunami could generate strong, unpredictable currents in the ocean close to shore, causing significant damage in harbors and bays. An extrapolation of the damage in California from the 2011 Tohoku tsunami even stronger ones can happen that will damage or sink one-third of the boats and damage or destroy over one-half of the docks in California coastal marinas. Small craft damages would include commercial fishing boats. In northern California, the scenario timing in March is considered the off-season and many fishermen would be away from their boats, which aggravates the exposure of the fleets to the tsunami. Loose boats would become floating debris or sink, posing navigational hazards to other vessels.

Fires would likely start at many sites where fuel and petrochemicals are stored in ports and marinas. Many fires during past tsunamis have been caused when flammable liquids were released, spread by water, and ignited by mechanisms such as electrical leakage, short circuits, and sparks created by pieces of debris colliding.

The tsunami has the potential to cause environmental contamination in both inunda ted areas onshore and the coastal marine and estuarine environments. Potential sources for contamination are many and varied, and include, for example:
debris from damaged piers, ships, commercial and industrial facilities, and large numbers of residences; petroleum products released from damaged ships and inundated or damaged marine petroleum terminals, petroleum storage facilities, marinas, power plants, and airports; raw sewage from inundated wastewater treatment plants; household and commercial building contents (lubricants, fuels, paints, pesticides, fertilizers, electronics); smoke, ash, and debris from fires; runoff from inundated agricultural fields containing pesticides, herbicides, and fertilizers; and redistribution of existing contaminated sedime nts in ports, the near shore marine environment, and in estuaries, sloughs, and bays.

Property damages include about 69,000 single-family-equivalent homes

McKittrick E (2020) Alaska’s new climate threat: tsunamis linked to melting permafrost. The Guardian.

Research shows that mountains are collapsing as the permafrost that holds them together melts, threatening tsunamis if they fall into the sea. Scientists are warning that populated areas and major tourist attractions are at risk.

One area of concern is a slope of the Barry Arm fjord in Alaska that overlooks a popular cruise ship route. The Barry Arm slide began creeping early last century, sped up a decade ago, and was discovered this year using satellite photos. If it lets loose, the wave could hit any ships in the area and reach hundreds of meters up nearby mountains, swamping the popular tourist destination and crashing as high as 10 meters over the town of Whittier. Earlier this year, 14 geologists warned that a major slide was “possible” within a year, and “likely” within 20 years.

In 2015, a similar landslide, on a slope that had also crept for decades, created a tsunami that sheared off forests 633 feet (193 meters) up the slopes of Alaska’s Taan Fiord.

Over the past century, 10 of the 14 tallest tsunamis recorded happened in glaciated mountain areas. In 1958, a landslide into Alaska’s Lituya Bay created a 524-meter wave – the tallest ever recorded. In Alaska’s 1964 earthquake, most deaths were from tsunamis set off by underwater landslides.

References

USGS (2013) U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2013. 1170– A California Geological Survey Special Report 229 The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario. U.S. Geological Survey.

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