Why EV Batteries aren’t being recycled

Preface.  Talk to your typical capitalist / environmentalist and they will both agree that we will never run out of anything because we can recycle.  But we aren’t.  Especially since it’s cheaper to buy newly mined metals than to recycle them. Here’s a summary of the challenges for EV batteries:

  1. Batteries are not designed to be recycled
  2. Batteries vary widely in construction and chemistry, making it hard to design efficient recycling systems
  3. Cut too deep or the wrong place of a cell and it can combust, release toxic fumes and short-circuit
  4. The technology of recycling batteries has a long way to go. So far just single cells yielding tens of grams of cathode powders has been done.
  5. Cathodes have the most valuable metals (i.e. cobalt and nickel), but as batteries evolve, future cathodes may be made of materials of no worth for buyers
  6. Lithium is finite but not recycled because it’s cheap
  7. Other metals are needles in a haystack, too hard to find and recover
  8. It can take 2 hours to crack open a battery and dismantle them
  9. The glue and polyurethane cement holding components in place requires toxic solvents harmful to workers
  10. High cost of transporting combustible batteries

In addition, it is hard to separate metals from electronic devices, and even impossible if they are an alloy or embedded with other metals that chemicals, heat, pressure and other techniques can’t separate out.

With peak world oil production having occurred in 2018, energy to mine and recycle will get increasingly expensive at the same time as ores continue to decline in quality, requiring ever more energy to obtain.

The limits to mineral extraction are not limits of quantity but limits of energy. Extracting them takes energy. The more dispersed and low quality the ore is, the more energy required. Not enough energy is produced to mine anything but conventional ores, so forget about filtering trillions of gallons of seawater to get gold or uranium.  Long before fossils “run out”, if oil peaks (which it did in 2018), then game over, fossil fuels are necessary for the extraction, transport, smelting and crushing of ores, and the easy high-grade ores have already been mined, leaving crummy ore and expensive declining fossils to extract it (Bardi 2014).

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com Women in ecology  author of 2021 Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy best price here; 2015 When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Podcasts: Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity

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Morse I (2021) With millions of electric vehicles set to hit the road, scientists are seeking better battery recycling methods. Science 372: 780-783

If it ends up in a landfill, its cells can release problematic toxins, including heavy metals. And recycling the battery can be a hazardous business, warns materials scientist Dana Thompson of the University of Leicester. Cut too deep into a Tesla cell, or in the wrong place, and it can short-circuit, combust, and release toxic fumes.

That’s just one of the many problems confronting researchers trying to tackle an emerging problem: how to recycle the millions of electric vehicle (EV) batteries that manufacturers expect to produce over the next few decades. Current EV batteries “are really not designed to be recycled,” says Thompson, a research fellow at the Faraday Institution, a research center focused on battery issues in the United Kingdom.  Several carmakers have said they plan to phase out combustion engines within a few decades, and industry analysts predict at least 145 million EVs will be on the road by 2030, up from just 11 million last year. “People are starting to realize this is an issue.”

 

Recycling won’t be easy.

 

Batteries differ widely in chemistry and construction, which makes it difficult to create efficient recycling systems. And the cells are often held together with tough glues that make them difficult to take apart. That has contributed to an economic obstacle: It’s often cheaper for battery makers to buy freshly mined metals than to use recycled materials.

 

EV batteries are constructed a bit like nested dolls. Typically, a main pack holds several modules, each of which is constructed from numerous smaller cells. Inside each cell, lithium atoms move through an electrolyte between a graphite anode and a cathode sheet composed of a metal oxide. Batteries are usually defined by the metals in the cathode. There are three main types: nickel-cobalt-aluminum, iron-phosphate, and nickel-manganese-cobalt.

 

Now, recyclers primarily target metals in the cathode, such as cobalt and nickel, that fetch high prices. (Lithium and graphite are too cheap for recycling to be economical.) But because of the small quantities, the metals are like needles in a haystack: hard to find and recover.

 

To extract those needles, recyclers rely on two techniques, known as pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy. The more common is pyrometallurgy, in which recyclers first mechanically shred the cell and then burn it, leaving a charred mass of plastic, metals, and glues. At that point, they can use several methods to extract the metals, including further burning. “Pyromet is essentially treating the battery as if it were an ore” straight from a mine, Gaines says. Hydrometallurgy, in contrast, involves dunking battery materials in pools of acid, producing a metal-laden soup. Sometimes the two methods are combined.

 

Each has advantages and downsides. Pyrometallurgy, for example, doesn’t require the recycler to know the battery’s design or composition, or even whether it is completely discharged, in order to move ahead safely. But it is energy intensive. Hydrometallurgy can extract materials not easily obtained through burning, but it can involve chemicals that pose health risks. And recovering the desired elements from the chemical soup can be difficult, although researchers are experimenting with compounds that promise to dissolve certain battery metals but leave others in a solid form, making them easier to recover. For example, Thompson has identified one candidate, a mixture of acids and bases called a deep eutectic solvent, that dissolves everything but nickel.

 

Both processes produce extensive waste and emit greenhouse gases, studies have found. And the business model can be shaky: Most operations depend on selling recovered cobalt to stay in business, but battery makers are trying to shift away from that relatively expensive metal. If that happens, recyclers could be left trying to sell piles of “dirt,” says materials scientist Rebecca Ciez of Purdue University.

 

So far, direct recycling experiments have only focused on single cells and yielded just tens of grams of cathode powders.

 

Given the rapidly changing battery market, Gaines notes, cathodes manufactured today might not be able to find a future buyer. Recyclers would be “recovering a dinosaur. No one will want the product.”

 

Another challenge is efficiently cracking open EV batteries. Nissan’s rectangular Leaf battery module can take 2 hours to dismantle. Tesla’s cells are unique not only for their cylindrical shape, but also for the almost indestructible polyurethane cement that holds them together.

 

Engineers might be able to build robots that could speed battery disassembly, but sticky issues remain even after you get inside the cell, researchers note. That’s because more glues are used to hold the anodes, cathodes, and other components in place. One solvent that recyclers use to dissolve cathode binders is so toxic that the European Union has introduced restrictions on its use, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency determined last year that it poses an “unreasonable risk” to workers.

Another problem to be solved is who should bear primary responsibility for making recycling happen? “Is it my responsibility because I bought [an EV] or is it the manufacturer’s responsibility because they made it and they’re selling it?”

Recycling researchers say effective battery recycling will require more than just technological advances. The high cost of transporting combustible items long distances or across borders can discourage recycling. As a result, placing recycling centers in the right places could have a “massive impact,” Harper says. “But there’s going to be a real challenge in systems integration and bringing all these different bits of research together.”

Related posts (recycling, peak minerals)

References

Bardi U. 2014. Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet. Chelsea Green.

 

 

 

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QAnon and Witchcraft. Hard to tell them apart

Preface.  I just read Schiff’s book “The Witches: Salem, 1692”.  As I read it, I kept thinking that these Christian witch killers weren’t much different from QAnon believers, who are also mostly Christians (evangelists).

I’m not the first to think this. Below are two articles comparing QAnon and witchcraft.  Both kinds of insanity result in deaths and violence. At the January 6th Insurrection, ABC news reports that “QAnon emerges as recurring theme of criminal cases tied to US Capitol siege. Some of the most prominent and violent offenders were supporters, officials say.”  Other QAnon killers include (more here)

  • Pizzagate – In 2016 a gunman walks into a pizza shop in Washington, D.C., because he was told it was a front for a child sex-trafficking ring
  • Mob Boss Killer – In 2019 a 24-year-old QAnon believer killed a mob boss in Staten Island because he was convinced Donald Trump wanted him to.
  • Brother Lizard – In 2019 a 26-year-old QAnon believer killed his brother who he claimed to be a lizard, with a sword

QAnon began in the dark corners of Internet message boards and chat rooms. It posits that the federal government has been infiltrated and subverted by a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles bent on destroying American democracy and imposing a global government.

The Salem outbreak began because of fears that children were being afflicted by invisible tormenters, much like the victims of QAnon’s alleged child trafficking ring. Like those who prosecuted witches at Salem, QAnon’s supporters believe that children — the most innocent and vulnerable among us — are imperiled by malevolent, unseen forces. The inability to come up with the physical evidence necessary to expose the conspiracy does not prove its falsehood, only the craftiness of its perpetrators.

The Salem witch trials came to an end because some influential people in Massachusetts finally worked up the courage to speak out against them. Thomas Brattle, a Boston merchant who questioned the methods used to prosecute the witchcraft cases, circulated a letter among his peers attacking the court’s proceedings. Increase Mather, Boston’s leading minister, did something similar, sharing with other clergy a sermon he wrote called “Cases of Conscience,” in which he concluded, “It were better that Ten Suspected witches should escape, than that one Innocent Person should be Condemned.”  But leading Republicans, least of all President Trump, have been reluctant to do the same with QAnon.

In some ways this is not a new conspiracy. In the last version, 200 innocent people went to jail and lost their careers, businesses, and families after being accused of being satanic cult baby killers in the 1980s and 1990s while Catholic priests were getting away with raping children. The Salem Witch Hunt lasted months, the  satanic baby killing cult trials a lot longer — they lasted a decade (i.e. Kern County child abuse cases, McMartin preschool trial, Ricky Kasso, West Memphis 3, Little Rascals Day Care Center, Oak Hill satanic ritual abuse trial, Fells Acres Day Care Center preschool trial, and Pace memorandum). A third of Americans saw Geraldo Rivera’s TV show where he estimated that there are over 1 million Satanists in America linked in a highly organized secret network dedicated to satanic ritual child abuse and satanic murders.  Americans agonized for three centuries over the Salem witch trial, but there hasn’t been a peep of apology or remorse from Christian evangelicals or fundamentalists for putting ruining the lives of 200 people. It continues, with QAnon and satanic ritual abuse conferences (Kurt Anderson 2017 Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire: A 500-Year History)

Here’s some background on witchcraft from Schiff. Crazy sure, but they had an excuse — most witchcraft trials happened in the dark ages before science and the scientific method. Today’s right-wing Christians and conspiracy mongers have no excuse, they embrace superstition and evil ideas with no basis knowingly and willingly.

Witches had troubled New England since its founding. They drowned oxen, caused cattle to leap four feet from the ground, tossed skillets into the fire, tipped hay from wagons, enchanted beer, sent pails crashing and kettles dancing. They launched apples, chairs, embers, candlesticks, dung through the air. They sent forth disembodied creatures, in one case a man’s head connected to a white cat tail by several feet of nothingness—a Cheshire cat centuries before Lewis Carroll. (It should be said that there were a fair number of taverns in the colony. Salem town was particularly well served, with 15 taverns, or one establishment for every 80 men, women, and children.)

Witches managed to be two places at once or emerge dry from a wet road. They walked soundlessly over loose boards. They arrived too quickly, divined the contents of unopened letters, spun suspiciously fine linen, cultured uncommonly good cheese, knew secrets for bleaching cloth, smelled figs in someone else’s pocket, survived falls down stairs. Witches could be muttering, contentious malcontents or they could be inexplicably strong and unaccountably smart. Indeed they often committed the capital offense of having more wit than their neighbors, as her former minister had said of the third Massachusetts

Compared to their European counterparts, New England witches were a tame bunch, their powers more ordinary than occult. They specialized in disordering the barn and kitchen. When the New England witch suspended natural laws, those laws tended to be agricultural ones. She had no talent for storms or weather of any kind; she neither called down plague nor burned Boston. Continental witches had more fun. They walked on their hands. They made pregnancies last three years. They turned their enemies’ faces upside down and backward. They flew internationally. They rode hyenas to bacchanals deep in the forest; they stole babies and penises. They employed hedgehog familiars. The Massachusetts witch’s familiars—which she suckled, in a maternal relationship—were unexotic by comparison. She did not venture very far afield. Even in her transgressions she was puritanical. She rarely enjoyed sexual congress with the devil. When she visited men in the night she seemed interested mostly in wringing their necks.

The witch’s ultimate target, the point of all those pricks and pinches, was the soul rather than the body. And despite her prodigious powers, she did not break out of jail, something many less advantaged New Englanders managed with ease.

Among the abundant proofs of her existence—where proofs were needed—was the biblical injunction against her. “Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live,” commands Exodus, although there was some debate about that term; in Hebrew it more accurately denotes “poisoner”.  Descended from Celtic horned gods and Teutonic folklore, Pan’s distant ancestor the devil was not yet on the scene. He arrived with the New Testament, a volume notably free of witches. Nothing in the Bible connects the two, a job that fell, much later, to the church.

The witch as Salem conceived her materialized in the 13th century as sorcery and heresy moved closer together; she came wholly into her own as a popular myth yielded to a popular madness. In 1326 Pope John XXII charged his inquisitors with the task of clearing the land of devil worshippers; the next two centuries proved transformative. When she was not being burned alive, the witch adopted two practices under the Inquisition. In her Continental incarnation she attended lurid orgies, the elements of which coalesced early in the 15th century, in the western Alps. At the same time, probably in Germany, she began to fly, sometimes on a broom. Also as the magician molted into the witch, the witch—previously a unisex term—became a woman, understood to be more susceptible to satanic overtures, inherently more wicked. The most reckless volume on the subject, the Malleus Maleficarum, or Witch Hammer, summoned a shelf of classical authorities to prove its point: “When a woman thinks alone, she thinks evil.” As is often the case with questions of women and power, elucidations here verged on the paranormal. Weak as she was to devilish temptations, a woman could emerge dangerously, insatiably commanding.

As to what country engaged in the greatest hunts, the competition is fierce. Germany was slow to prosecute, afterward fanatical. A Lorrain inquisitor boasted that he had cleared the land of 900 witches in 15 years.  An Italian bested him with a thousand deaths in a year. One German town managed 400 in a single day. Between 1580 and 1680, Great Britain dispensed with no fewer than 4,000 witches. Several years after Salem, at least five accused witches perished in Scotland on the testimony of an 11-year-old girl. Essex County, England, from which many Massachusetts Bay settlers hailed, proved especially prosecution-happy, though it convicted at a steady rate rather than in the flash-flood manner of Salem.

English witches were hanged while French ones were burned.

When the colonists established a legal code, the first capital crime was idolatry. The second was witchcraft. “If any man or woman be a witch, that is, hath or consulteth with a familiar spirit, they shall be put to death,” read the 1641 body of laws, citing Exodus, Leviticus, and Deuteronomy. Blasphemy came next, followed by murder, poisoning, and bestiality.

Early New England witchcraft cases included no broomsticks, satanic gatherings, or convulsing girls. Rather they featured bewitched pigs and roving livestock, proprieties trampled, properties trespassed. They centered on the overly attentive acquaintance or the supplicant who, like Sarah Good, was turned away. Most involved some stubborn, calcified knot of vexed, small-town relations.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Morris B (2020) Conspiracy Theory Origins: How Pro-Trump QAnon Is Eerily Similar To The Salem Witch Hunt.Newsone.com

This stuff is scary, but history can bring some solace because it can give you a hint to what’s to come.

From February 1692 to May 1693 hundreds of people (mostly teenage women) in colonial Massachusetts were accused of witchcraft, with no basis in fact or reality. “The Hunt” led to the actual Salem Witch Trials; a time in which hundreds of people were jailed, and many were even publicly hanged or executed (Yes people died, women and children. Don’t read over that lightly). There was never any proof of actual witchcraft. Most of the persecuted women were of lower socioeconomic status and easy scapegoats to give the conspiracy someone to blame. It’s the first known case of mass hysteria this country has ever seen, and if I can be frank, it’s weird! The fact that something so ridiculous could have seeped into the minds of so many people may seem archaic, but American history could be doomed to repeat itself.
People make false accusations every day, but the accusations become problematic when the masses start to believe them. During the Salem Witch Hunt, leaders used false accusations to rally their tribes into accepting the murder of women and children. The lies gave some sense to the things they didn’t have answers for. That is the same exact thought process that allows a QAnon believer to accept that a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles running a global child sex-trafficking ring are plotting against President Donald Trump. The absurd ideas mean less than the accusations themselves; and for the tribe, it only makes their argument stronger. In 1692 Salem, if a woman was called a witch by more than one witness, she must have been a witch. Now, the arm of the internet gives one tweet the power of a thousand witnesses, and false accusations can quickly become the truth in the eye of public opinion. Truth is then lost and the false accusations win.
And it still oozes it today. Back in 1692, religious extremism was more our cup of tea. The Puritans, who were very religious folks, came to settle in the northern Americas in the early 1600s. They believed in the active existence of the devil and demons, and that spirits could possess humans and force them to do their bidding. Puritan pastors regularly performed exorcisms and oversaw many of the executions in the Salem Witch Trials. Done all in the name of the Lord. This type of religious extremism is a staple in the belief system of QAnon. Their tribe consists mostly of evangelical Christians, who already have a strong religious belief system. Mix that with the isolationism due to COVID-19, and false accusations circled around the tribe, violence is next to come. Just like in 1692, now we have violence acted out by religious extremists who isolated their beliefs and were tricked into believing false accusations.

Loxton D (2020) QAnon Is Just a Warmed Over Witch Panic — and It’s Also Very Dangerous. Skeptic.com

As 2020 nears its end and the COVID-19 pandemic continues, a rapidly growing far right conspiracy theory increasingly dominates headlines. QAnon is a crowd-sourced online mythology inspired by cryptic anonymous internet posts appearing since 2017 from an unknown figure (or group) known as “Q” or “Q Clearance Patriot.” It is an expanded successor to the debunked 2016 “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory, which claimed that Hillary Clinton and other prominent Democrats operated a child sex trafficking ring under a Washington, DC pizzeria called Comet Ping Pong. QAnon is also rooted in much older mythologies about sinister secret societies of Satan worshippers, witches, or Jews.QAnon believers hold that our modern world is secretly ruled by a “cabal” or “deep state” of cartoonishly wicked evildoers hidden in plain sight. “Every President after Reagan was one of these deep state criminals,” believers claim.1 Indeed, most “famous politicians, actors, singers, CEOs, and celebrities” are supposedly part of the cabal. For example, entertainers Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Lady Gaga, and Tom Hanks are all thought to be prominent members. The Obamas and Clintons are supposedly sinister cabal leaders.

These criminals aren’t merely bad, greedy, or ruthless. They’re said to be deliberately, totally, breathtakingly evil. They worship Satan and may be in league with supernatural demons. They systematically abuse, torture, and murder children. They’re pedophiles. They maintain their youth through intoxicating injections of blood drained from children ritually murdered at the moment of maximum terror. The cabal also eats babies.

To maintain power, the cabal controls all mainstream news media and engineers every ill that plagues modern society. As one seductive introductory video2 asks curious viewers,

Have you ever wondered why we go to war? Or why you never seem to be able to get out of debt? Why there is poverty, division, and crime? What if I told you there was a reason for it all? What if I told you it was done on purpose?

The idea that Satanists rule the world is a story of Lovecraftian horror in which the normal world is an illusion and a much darker true world lies just beyond the veil. And yet, QAnon believers are more excited than scared. People who “take the red pill” or “wake up” to the claimed conspiracy are offered a simple explanation for all of the world’s problems. They’re also offered a reassuring prediction for a better future:

What if I told you that those who were corrupting the world, poisoning our food, and igniting conflict were themselves about to be permanently eradicated from the Earth?

According to QAnon mythology, an apocalyptic event called “The Storm” will soon cleanse the world and usher in a utopia. The unlikely savior in this story of revelation and renewal is none other than President Donald J. Trump. “Good patriots in the U.S. military” supposedly “asked Trump to run for President so they could take back control of America” from the Satanic overlords. This righteous struggle is the true purpose of the Trump administration. “The world is currently experiencing a dramatic covert war of Biblical proportions—literally the fight for Earth—between the forces of good and evil,” believers claim.1 Clues about the progress of this clandestine war are to be found in “Q drop” posts by the anonymous Q, and in Trump’s more cryptic statements and typos. Critical news stories about Trump are Satanic lies.

When asked about QAnon, Trump dissembled, describing QAnon believers as “people that love our country” and “like me very much, which I appreciate.” When asked during a pre-election televised town hall interview to denounce the claim that “Democrats are a Satanic pedophile ring, and that you are the saviour,” Trump refused to do so. When exasperated moderator Savannah Guthrie pressed Trump to admit that his political opponents aren’t devil-worshipping child molesters, Trump insisted, “I don’t know that, and neither do you know that.”3

QAnon is broadly compatible with whatever conspiracy beliefs one happens to hold regarding vaccines, Covid-19, fake news, Jews, vampirism, a New World Order, the Vatican, deep state conspirators, “false flag” hoaxes, white nationalism, immigrants, or practically anything else.

With Trump’s tacit encouragement, the QAnon community eagerly looks forward to a moment called the “Great Awakening,” when the good patriots will reveal all and Trump will seal his victory with mass arrests of high government officials. Hillary Clinton and all of the other alleged Satanists will be “severely punished.” As one QAnon YouTube personality gushed: “I’m excited. I’m happy! … Once you know the information you are not in fear; you’re, like, empowered! You are excited. You can’t wait for justice to go down, you can’t wait for the kids to be saved, you can’t wait for the bad guys to be put in jail.”4

The Power of QAnon

The anonymous Q purports to be a highly placed U.S. intelligence officer sharing classified inside information. Q’s posts provide fragmented source material about “pedo networks,” “child abductions for satanic rituals” and the supposed battle against the “powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms.” However, the style of these posts is generally opaque, vague, and posed in the form of insinuating questions. Dubbed “bread crumbs,” they require creative, collaborative interpretation by the QAnon community, allowing enthusiasts to fill in the blanks for themselves.

The result is a viral, organic, crowd-sourced ideology that can stretch to accommodate a broad diversity of conspiratorial views. It is also flexible enough to allow believers to dismiss Q’s failed predictions and shifting claims. (For example, Q’s earliest posts in October of 2017 predicted the imminent arrest of Hillary Clinton, which did not occur.)

QAnon has emerged as a grand unified conspiracy theory. QAnon is broadly compatible with whatever conspiracy beliefs one happens to hold regarding vaccines, Covid-19, fake news, Jews, vampirism, a New World Order, the Vatican, deep state conspirators, “false flag” hoaxes, white nationalism, immigrants, or practically anything else. QAnon acts as a kind of glue that promotes and binds together seemingly unrelated conspiracy theories. When people approach social media with curiosity regarding one conspiracy claim (that vaccines cause autism, for example), those platforms’ recommendation algorithms often promote QAnon content that entices viewers into further conspiracy beliefs.

This flexibility allows QAnon to appeal to secular people as well as fundamentalist “spiritual warriors.” It is able to attract people we would normally expect to reject far-right positions. For example, some people in the “wellness” community find that their doubts about vaccines and mainstream medicine harmonize with QAnon’s rejection of mainstream media and public health. In QAnon’s bizarre melting pot, New Age hippies support a Republican president, adopt radical libertarian objections to pandemic safety measures, and help to inflame the passions of far right “militia” members and white nationalists.

Dangerous Beliefs

As I write this, the United States is confronting multiple serious and mutually compounding crises: a ferociously divided electorate; an unprecedented presidential election; mass protests against racial injustice; a severe economic recession; widespread unemployment; a pandemic that has already claimed 223,000 American lives; and the escalating threat of white nationalist domestic terrorism on the right and Antifa-fueled violent protests on the left. These crises created QAnon. In return, QAnon makes these crises worse.

The pandemic has thrown jet fuel on the QAnon fire, bringing in countless new believers. Those believers tend to interpret Covid-19 as somehow serving the agenda of the Satanic elite. Q suggests that the pandemic is part of a plot to steal the election from Trump by promoting the use of mail-in ballots. Other members of the community object to Covid-19 safety measures such as masks. For example, one woman who previously made headlines with her QAnon claim that actor Tom Hanks “purchased me from my father for sex as a dissociated mind control doll” has more recently claimed “masks are mind control” and “mandating masks is Satanic.” She argues in a YouTube video that masks are part of a “gigantic Satanic ritual initiation” intended for “evil and control, period.”5

QAnon claims are incitements to violence. They have already triggered isolated violent incidents, including an armed standoff at the Hoover dam and at least one murder. QAnon members anticipate further violence and civil unrest during the overthrow of the supposed cabal. For this reason, the FBI has warned that QAnon and other “anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories” will “very likely motivate some domestic extremists…to commit criminal and sometimes violent activity.” Further, QAnon encourages the targeting of specific people accused of membership in the cabal. “These targets are then subjected to harassment campaigns and threats by supporters of the theory,” warns the FBI, “and become vulnerable to violence or other dangerous acts.”

Especially worrisome is the possibility of QAnon-motivated violence during or following the 2020 U.S. presidential election. People radicalized into the belief that public figures are servants of Satan naturally pose a threat—especially when egged on by the President himself. When the perceived enemy is considered elementally evil, and the future of the world is thought to be at stake, the most extreme measures may appear reasonable to committed believers.

In recent months, this rising threat has motivated social media companies to take unusual steps to combat QAnon. Facebook has announced an evolving series of “measures designed to disrupt the ability of QAnon and Militarized Social Movements to operate and organize on our platform,” including the removal of “over 1,500 Pages and Groups for QAnon containing discussions of potential violence.” Facebook later expanded its restrictions on the conspiracy group, announcing, “we will remove any Facebook Pages, Groups and Instagram accounts representing QAnon, even if they contain no violent content.” Twitter and YouTube have recently taken similar steps.

However, QAnon has been growing since 2017. Much of the damage is already done. Polls suggest that around 23 million Americans hold a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of QAnon. Larger percentages are prepared to accept individual QAnon claims. For example, 18 percent of respondents in one survey agreed that it is “probably or definitely true” that Trump is secretly preparing for a “mass arrest of government officials and celebrities.” Although some of these respondents heard this “mass arrests” claim for the first time from the survey itself, this finding suggests that almost 60 million Americans could become receptive to this essentially fascist QAnon claim.6

Recycled Antisemitism

QAnon’s extremist claims are certainly outlandish, but this does not make them original. QAnon largely repackages older conspiracy beliefs dating back decades and even centuries.

For example, the belief that scheming elite puppet masters control the banks and the media merely rehashes tired but dangerous antisemitic tropes. The scenario envisioned by QAnon echoes the infamous early 20th century antisemitic hoax, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. That malicious document purported to record a secret Jewish plan to take over the world and oppress gentiles. The Jewish elite would achieve “absolute despotism” over all nations by controlling the banks and the press. Although discredited as a plagiarized forgery in 1921, the Protocols hoax went on to influence Adolf Hitler and his Nazi regime. Hitler claimed the Protocols were authentic, and said they revealed the true “nature and activity of the Jewish people and…their ultimate final aims.” Given this blood-soaked history, it is noteworthy that QAnon claims prominent Jewish Americans such as George Soros are secret despotic rulers of the Earth.

Conceptually, QAnon’s antisemitic roots extend back much further to the medieval “blood libel” that Jews ritually murdered and ate Christian children. These wildly dangerous false allegations had terrible and predictable real-world consequences: sporadic massacres of European Jews.

Satanic Panic

QAnon also rehashes debunked old claims of Satanic Ritual Abuse cults, which were based in turn upon Renaissance era claims about sinister secret covens of witches. QAnon’s imagined Satanic cabal is essentially identical to the network of highly placed Satanists imagined during the Satanic Panic of the 1980s—especially in their shared claims of systematic ritual abuse of children.

The Satanic Panic was ignited by a bizarre memoir called Michelle Remembers. Published in 1980, it tells the supposedly true (but later discredited) story of a girl ritually tortured for months by a Satanic cult. The story emerged during intense therapy sessions in which the adult Michelle was pressured to “recover” increasingly outlandish “memories” of her supposed childhood ordeal—false memories that did not previously exist.

The book’s claims were not true, but they were horrifying. Michelle allegedly endured ritualized humiliation and sexual abuse. In one passage, a woman wearing a “black cape with a hood” dipped a colored stick into a “silver goblet and inserted” the stick “in Michelle’s rectum.” The woman shoved other sticks “everywhere I had an opening!” Several scenes feature dead, murdered, or dismembered children and infants. In the book’s grisly, absurd climax, Satan himself appears as a character. He recites bad poetry and accepts tribute from the cult, including offerings of dead infants “in a pile at his feet.”7

This lurid tale proved much more influential than it deserved. It created a “script” for countless later claims of Satanic abuse of children. Many misguided therapists pressured their own patients to “recover” stories like Michelle’s. These copycat stories were then repeated in books, workshops, and TV interviews, reenforcing the moral panic’s standard narrative template: hidden legions of Satanists are secretly abusing thousands of children. Books warned of the “ever growing web being spun by those who desire to lead your children into satanism.” Ensnared youngsters could suffer “all manner of sexual perversions,” “sexual orgies which involved children and animals,”8 and even human sacrifice and cannibalization of infants.

None of these Satanic abuse stories was true. Years of investigations by journalists and law enforcement failed to uncover even one single genuine case. Nevertheless, the resulting international panic led to numerous false accusations against individuals, some of whom were tried and wrongly convicted for imaginary crimes against children.

Covens of Witches

In retrospect, Michelle Remembers was clearly inspired by fantastical horror movie depictions of Devil worshipers. Those films were inspired in turn by centuries- old folklore.

It was widely believed in Renaissance times that society was plagued by hidden covens of witches who worshiped Satan and conspired against Christians. The witches were supposed to be utterly, unspeakably evil. “So heinous are the crimes of witches that they even exceed the sins and the fall of the bad Angels,” said the infamous witch hunting manual Malleus Maleficarum (“Hammer of Witches”). The manual claimed that witches “are in the habit of devouring and eating infant children.” For example, one man allegedly “missed his child from its cradle, and finding a congress of women in the night-time, swore that he saw them kill his child and drink its blood and devour it.” The witches were also “taught by the devil to confect from the limbs of such children an unguent which is very useful for their spells.”

The threat of pure evil justified even the most extreme measures to protect society. Suspected witches were brutally tortured until they told the expected stories that interrogators wanted to hear. When they inevitably did so, they were burned to death. Their extorted false “confessions” appeared to confirm the beliefs of the witch hunters,and justified further attacks on innocent people—usually the most vulnerable, such as destitute women and the mentally ill. Many thousands of innocent people were murdered in the name of this conspiracy theory.

QAnon Will Not “Save” Children

President Trump has claimed that QAnon believers “are very much against pedophilia. They fight it very hard.” QAnon does indeed rally under a banner to “save the children!” However, both Trump and QAnon are mistaken. QAnon isn’t doing anything at all to fight pedophiles. They’re railing against imaginary witches.

One of the tragedies of the Satanic Panic of the 1980s was that it created confusion and diverted attention and law enforcement resources away from the genuine social evil of child sexual abuse. The people locked up for Satanic sexual abuse were innocent. People guilty of actual sexual abuse all too often went unpunished.

In an effort to protect children, moral campaigners in the 1980s led crusades against supposedly Satanic music, role-playing games, Disney movies, and young adult fiction. Their pamphlets and seminars taught law enforcement officers to look for imaginary signs of imaginary abuse by imaginary cults. Supposed signs of Satanic cult activity included everything from teen-aged boredom to the hippie “peace” symbol.9 Activists and counselors accomplished nothing for children with their bad advice about nonexistent threats. They did nothing to bring criminals to justice. Instead, they sent police on wild goose chases, left children in the hands of misguided, overzealous investigators, and ruined the lives of innocent people who were falsely accused.

Likewise, QAnon’s baseless accusations against Democrats and celebrities will not help children. Like the moral crusaders of the Satanic Panic, QAnon imagines that perpetrators of both genders conspire in a vast national network, abduct children, and gather in groups to commit abuse for ritual purposes. In reality, child molesters are most often lone males who are known to their victims and motivated by pathological sexual desires.

Instead of saving children, QAnon’s incitements to violence put children and adults in danger. On December 4, 2016, an armed gunman walked into the Comet Ping Pong pizza parlor intending to rescue children from Hillary Clinton’s alleged child sex trafficking ring located in the basement…of a building that does not have a basement. Despite internet rumors, the only children in the pizzeria were customers. Those kids were placed in jeopardy when the wouldbe rescuer fired three shots from an AR-15 rifle. Thankfully, no one was hurt. (The man surrendered to police. He was later sentenced to four years in prison.)

The threat of QAnon-motivated domestic terrorism diverts law enforcement resources from real problems. Every minute cops spend watching QAnon is a minute not spent investigating other crimes—including abuse against children.

Conclusion

QAnon’s conspiracy claims are not based in fact. The anonymous Q poster could be anyone from an overseas “troll farm” to a teenaged prankster. Q’s claims are frequently meaningless or factually wrong. There was never any good reason to believe this absurd story.

However, some people do believe it, to their own detriment and ours. Intense fringe beliefs tend to harm believers by isolating them from friends and loved ones. In this case, the content of their beliefs also threatens society at large. It is dangerous when groups are radicalized to perceive their adversaries as irredeemably evil. What wouldn’t one do to stop people who eat babies? As one former QAnon member recently told CNN, it “still bothers me to this day, how willing and happy and joyfully I would have reacted to something that I would normally want no part in,” such as cheering for the extralegal arrest of Hillary Clinton. “This is how you get good people to do bad things.”10

Eliminating QAnon’s threat to society would take more than watchful cops and social media bans. It would require QAnon supporters to change their minds about a cherished belief and a community they’ve invested in heavily. Admitting serious error is an extraordinarily difficult and courageous thing for anyone to do. Generous, respectful, personal outreach can sometimes help; shaming will not. Believers need support if they are to have any hope of transitioning away from their misguided movement. “It has to start with empathy and understanding,” the former QAnon member told CNN. QAnon believers are highly insulated from contrary information by their beliefs that news media are untrustworthy and nonbelievers are blind to the truth. True communication can only take place when barriers to communication are removed through compassion.

That’s easier said than done. However, there’s urgent reason to try. Conspiracy theories thrive most dangerously during times of uncertainty and societal stress—such as during a pandemic. During the medieval Black Death, conspiracy theorists claimed that Jews were secretly causing the plague by poisoning wells. As a result, mob violence erupted across Europe. Hundreds of Jewish communities were wiped out; many thousands of men, women, and children were burned to death.

Another pandemic rages today. As millions suffer and mourn and political divides deepen into chasms, one simple truth can help make us safer: we are in this thing together.

References
  1. “Q — The Plan To Save The World.” YouTube, March 20, 2019. https://bit.ly/3olxxVH (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  2. Ibid.
  3. “Trump refuses to denounce QAnon conspiracies.” CNN Politics, October 16, 2020. https://cnn.it/3mj8hxx (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  4. Kim Cohen. “Why I’m Not Scared & You SHOULDN’T Be Either! THE GREAT AWAKENING! (5 Levels To Q.)” YouTube, April 9, 2020. https://bit.ly/2Tn2lal (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  5. Sarah Ashcraft. “Masks are Mind Control.” YouTube, July 17, 2020. https://bit.ly/3dRWYJQ (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  6. Brian Schaffner. “QAnon and Conspiracy Beliefs.” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, October 5, 2020. https://bit.ly/3kFvdqB
  7. Michelle Smith and Lawrence Pazder. Michelle Remembers. (New York: Congdon & Lattès, 1980.) pp. 23, 216.
  8. Pat Pulling with Kathy Cawthon. The Devil’s Web: Who Is Stalking Your Children for Satan? (Milton Keynes, England: Word Publishing, 1990.) pp. 1, 67.
  9. Gayland Hurst and Robert Marsh. Satanic Cult Awareness. (Self published pamphlet, date unknown, acquired by NCJRS Jan 27, 1993.)
  10. Bronte Lord and Richa Naik. “He went down the QAnon rabbit hole for almost two years. Here’s how he got out.” CNN Business, October 18, 2020. https://cnn.it/3okuMUR (accessed October 18, 2020.)

 

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Is there a long emergency plan for peak oil?

 

Source: A year on the midieval farm https://www.medievalists.net/2014/06/year-medieval-farm/

Ever since I learned about peak oil in 2000 after reading my grandfather Pettijohn’s memoir (Pettijohn 1984), I’ve wondered what The Plan To Cope with Oil Decline and eventual disappearance was.

In 2024, I came to the conclusion there is not a plan, CANNOT be a plan. This is not a temporary problem like a natural disaster. It is a permanent emergency.  To understand why there can be no plan, read these posts:

  1. Raven Rock parts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
  2. Book review of Lights Out. A Cyberattack. A Nation Unprepared. Surviving the Aftermath

There was a plan, sort of, to cope with oil shortages, but even in 1980 before Republicans became right-wing extremists, they voted against it. Basically the plan was to allocate to agriculture whatever it needed, and leftover oil went to other essential services, and any still around after that to the public.

US Department of Energy 1980 oil rationing plan

At a minimum the government should be working on rationing:

Rationing. Book review of “Any way you slice it” by Stan Cox

It would have to be a permanent emergency plan.  After all, petroleum is The Master Resource that makes all other resources and activities possible, including coal and natural gas (solar, wind, transmission grid, and so on).

There have indeed been plans: Nixon launched “Project Independence” after the oil shock of 1973 to wean the U.S. from its dependence on imported oil by 1980 with kerogen shale oil, hydrogen fuel vehicles, and nuclear power.

When that didn’t pan out, further government attempts were made to find alternatives for fossil fuels, for example (NRC 2009):

  • Richard Nixon’s “Project Independence” (1974)
  • National Renewable Energy Laboratory (1974)
  • Gerald Ford’s “Energy Independence Act” (1975)
  • Energy Policy & Conservation Act (1975) to restrict exports of coal, petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemical feedstocks, and supplies of materials and equipment for the exploration, production, refining, and transportation of energy.
  • Jimmy Carter’s “National Energy Plan” (1977)
  • Department of Energy (1977)
  • Ronald Reagan’s “Energy Security” report (1987)
  • George H.W. Bush’s “National Energy Strategy” (1991)
  • Bill Clinton’s “Federal Energy R&D for the Challenges of the 21st Century” report (1997)
  • George W. Bush’s “Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future” report (2001).
  • John Kerry’s plan: “Kerry Aims to Reduce Foreign Oil Reliance,” Associated Press (2004).

But Senator Lugar pointed out in several Senate hearings, despite Project Independence and other energy plans, the world has become more reliant on the three-quarters of reserves concentrated in unstable regions, where the risk of wars over remaining energy supplies will dramatically increase (Senate 106-930 2000, Senate 109-385 2005, Senate 109-861 2006, Senate 109-860 2006, Senate 109-64 2006, Senate 111-78 2009, Senate 111-105 2009).

Or as Jay Hanson (2004) once wrote: “I am convinced that after the PROJECT INDEPENDENCE fiasco, our rulers reached the same conclusion I have: since no solution exists, there is no point in scaring Joe Six-pack.  It’s kind of like that movie ON THE BEACH where the radiation cloud is coming and nothing can be done about it.  That is why EIA, USGS, Michael Lynch, et al are trying to convince everyone there is plenty of oil and gas”.

And Donella Meadows (2002), lead author of “Limits to Growth”, wrote that “President Nixon’s Project Independence, dreamed up after the 1973 oil embargo, promised that the United States would be free of imported oil by 1980. System dynamicists saw immediately (and later demonstrated with a computer model) that, given the expected lifetime of installed oil-burning furnaces and cars and inevitable delays in finding and gearing up domestic oil wells, that goal was physically impossible. (An amazing amount of political discussion is directed toward goals that are physically impossible.)”

The Department of Energy (Hirsch 2005) asked Robert Hirsch to come up with a peak oil mitigation plan, and he said you’d want to prepare at least 10 to 20 years ahead of time (at the 2006 ASPO peak oil conference in Pisa Italy he told the audience you’d want over 30 years of planning).  And his five solutions were: more oil!  The “solutions” are very temporary: heavy oil, gas-to-liquid (GTL) from natural gas, enhanced oil recovery, liquefied coal (CTL) and more efficient vehicles. But I explain in When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation (Friedemann 2016) why GTL, CTL, and heavy oil can’t replace conventional oil, and in addition, tar sand production is limited by natural gas and water in Canada (see also Nikiforuk 2010).  Though to be fair to Hirsch, in 2011 he wrote a book called “The Impending World Energy Mess” with advice on how to survive the coming crash.

But then again — in 2008 he wrote a memo to the leaders of the peak oil community asking them not to publicize the dangers of peak oil which said: “The world is in the midst of the most severe financial crisis in most of our lifetimes. The economic damage that has already been wrought is considerable, and we have yet to see the bottom or the turnaround. Against this background, I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply. The motivation is simple: By minimizing our efforts in the near term, we may not add fuel to the economic fires that are already burning so fiercely. We are all aware of how disoriented governments and business are right now. Our leaders, leaders-to-be, and best minds are disoriented and seeking pathways out of the current morass. The public is in a quiet panic mode — those who were reasonably well off are less well off, and their options for action are limited. Those that have lost their jobs and/or homes are desperate. Businesses and the markets are in what might be called a free fall. If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable. Like many of you, I’ve devoted my recent efforts to trying to wake the public and governments to the impending horrors of peak oil. As much as that awaking is urgently needed, continuing to press forward now is almost certainly not in the broader interest.Many may be tempted to directly challenge the recent IEA World Energy Outlook. I am among those who were very disappointed. Pressing those concerns at this time might further the peak oil “cause,” but it could well do much more damage than any of us really intend.Please keep up your studies and thinking, because helping the world realize the dangers of peak oil is an absolute must. In the near term, keeping relatively quiet is likely the better part of valor (Ball 2008)”.

It is scary. I’ve spent 22 years looking for a way out, and the only way is back to the past.  In a nutshell, here’s why. “When Trucks stop Running” explains why heavy-duty transportation can’t run on anything but diesel fuel and why batteries, natural gas, liquefied coal, hydrogen and other alternatives won’t work. Civilization would collapse within a month if diesel ran out. I also explain why the electric grid will eventually fail when natural gas isn’t around to balance intermittent energy, since there’s no way to store weeks of electricity to cope with seasonal shortages, nor would a national grid solve this problem, and “renewables” depend on fossil fuel energy for every single step of their life cycle. My second book, Life After fossil fuels, explains why fossil fuels can’t be replaced in key areas of society. Manufacturing needs the high heat only fossils can provide, food for 8 billion people needs finite natural gas fertilizer, and goes over every alternative — hydrogen, solar, wind, batteries, and so on to show why fossils can’t be replaced.

And yet here it is 2022, with world oil peak production likely having occurred in 2018.  Surely there must be some doubts about Plan A: energy independence. Dozens of authors have been writing about why alternatives can’t replace fossils for decades now (i.e. Gever’s 1991 “Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades, Youngquist’s 1997  “Geodestinies”, etc).

So is there a Plan B for the long and permanent emergency?

I looked for plans, and found that most states do have plans for coping with an energy crisis. Since I live in California I looked at their plan first. The 2006 Energy Emergency Response Plan of the California Energy Commission defines its purpose as the state’s strategy for responding to an energy emergency of an actual or potential loss of energy supply that significantly impacts the state. An energy emergency can be caused by natural disasters (such as earthquake, fire, or flood) or geopolitical events such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, or embargo).

The Plan relies on a free-market approach to control distribution and supply. Government intervention occurs only to the extent necessary to protect the interests of public health, safety, and welfare, along with critical community services and economic operations. During the early stages of an energy emergency, the primary role of state government is fact finding, monitoring, and exchanging information, rather than direct intervention in industry efforts to restore services and satisfy customer requirements.

The state’s response to an emergency will vary depending on the situation. For example, one response to an electricity emergency would involve an appeal to the public to reduce their electricity use. During the early stages of a fuel emergency an appeal for demand reduction will likely escalate the fuel shortage if Californians top off their gasoline tanks in anticipation of an emergency.

Mainly it is many pages of the actions various agencies will take and which agencies they’ll coordinate with. For example:

  • Readiness actions: Monitors international and domestic events. Attends periodic exercises to establish and test emergency protocols. Trains appropriate Energy Commission staff. Updates and maintains a network of public and private sector contacts. Prepares Internal Advisory Reports as needed.
  • Verify actions: determine nature, extent, and duration of a potential or actually energy emergency. Coordinate with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, the US DOE, and other agencies as well as private industries. Provide a Situation Report. Use the informal fuels set-aside program to be sure that emergency and essential services have adequate fuel.
  • EMERGENCY ACTIONS: the Governor must first issue the Proclamation of a State of Emergency and file an Emergency Order with the Office of the Secretary of State.
  • OFFICE OF EMERGENCY SERVICES: Inland Region (Sacramento/Mather), Coastal Region (Oakland), Southern Region (Los Alamitos Armed Forces Reserve Center If the disaster is localized within a single region, the Regional Emergency Operations Center (REOC) is activated.

If fuel is short there’s a set-aside program for emergency and essential services only.  There’s a form to fill out in the California Petroleum Fuels Set-Aside Program Applicant Handbook, and one of the agencies will decide whether to fulfill it or not. And the government is not paying for the fuel, the agency asking for it has to pay the market price if granted.  I’d hoped to see the actual services that qualified.  Though you can get an idea from the impressive plan to cope with energy shortages after an earthquake in Southern California, it is impossibly difficult, read all about it here.

And here is a Homeland Security 2017 plan called “Guidance for Developing a Fuel Contingency Plan”. Again, it’s SHORT TERM, for some sort of natural disaster like hurricane.  And basically advises setting up emergency supplies for private and public entities. Here are their concrete recommendations, but these “solutions” are so temporary, here are a few of them:

  • Consider increasing or installing onsite fuel storage capability. However, when pursuing this option, remember that storage of flammable or combustible fuels requires compliance with a variety of safety and environmental regulations and may require permits from State and/or local environmental protection and fire safety authorities. Be sure to consider the impact of onsite fuel storage on your insurance premiums.
  • Identify additional retail fuel vendors from whom you might be able to obtain fuel during fuel emergencies, ensuring that each retail vendor is resilient with respect to onsite emergency power.
  • If your core functions (and their supporting functions) depend heavily on electric power, consider enhancing onsite emergency power generation capability, either by installing a permanent emergency generator and fuel storage tank or by modifying your facility’s existing electrical infrastructure to facilitate installation of a portable generator. If you perform lifeline functions, you may be eligible for Federal support for such changes. Through a program operated in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) known as the Emergency Power Facility Assessment Tool (EPFAT), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) can evaluate the emergency power requirements for certain private sector businesses, develop specifications for an emergency generator that can support core functions, assist in the installation of appropriate transfer switches that expedite connections to a portable emergency generator, and deploy the appropriately sized portable generator during emergencies. USACE will also register the facility with FEMA, making your facility eligible for priority distribution of fuel to support the emergency generator. Details of the EPFAT program can be found at http://www.usace.army.mil/Portals/2/docs/Emergency%20Ops/National%20Response%20Framework/power/EPFAT_Fact_Sheet_21_April_2015.pdf
  • Review the National Petroleum Council’s report, Enhancing Emergency Preparedness for Natural Disasters – Government and Oil and Natural Gas Industry Actions to Prepare, Respond, and Recover, to understand the basic elements of petroleum fuel supply chains and their vulnerabilities to disruption and to identify ways to establish effective working relationships with members of your local Oil and Natural Gas community

The Homeland Security document is worth looking at if you’re curious about the details, and has a four page list in Appendix B of other emergency planning documents.

But what about the Long Emergency, the permanent slide back to a wood world?

These temporary emergency plans will become the long emergency plans if the latter don’t exist.

If there were long emergency plans, we’d already have a massively subsidized program to end pesticides (since they are running out anyhow, like antibiotics), replace natural gas fertilizer with compost and regenerative agriculture, converting industrial to organic agriculture, breeding horses and oxen to replace tractors, teaching how to grow food in schools, building very small homes in the interior of the U.S. because 80% of the calories are grown in the interior, but 80% of the population lives within 200 miles of the coast, and so on.  See resilience.org, postcarbon.org, Transition Towns, Permaculture books and websites, local food, Trainer’s simplicity Institute and more for the myriad transition ideas for realistic permanent emergency plans.

We’d also have a farm bill that rewarded small farms. After all, in the future 80 to 90% of us will need to be farmers as we were before fossil fuels (or better yet reinvent the societies “Dawn of Everything” cites where cultures rotated between hunting/gathering and growing food and other alternatives (Graeber 2021).  In the U.S. farms declined from 7 million farms to 2 million in the 20th century (USDA 2022), mainly because most subsidies go to large farms, and economies of scale favor farms with the most gigantic tractors.  But farm equipment runs on diesel — that isn’t going to last…  Globally, 1% of farms operate 70% of world’s farmland (Watts 2020, Anseeuw 2020). This concentrated ownership leads to destructive monocultures, soil erosion, aquifer depletion, and deforestation.

But we’re not doing that.  So if there are realistic long emergency last minute plans, they’re hidden from public view at Homeland Security and/or within the U.S. military, because they’d be too scary for the public.  I’ll let my imagination run wild, perhaps these plans discuss how national guards and the military forces would prevent mass migrations, set up massive tent cities in agricultural regions, evacuate those under 40 who volunteer to harvest crops, breed horses, and transport crops via horse & bicycle to nearby towns and cities once muscle power was more available than petroleum, and to train them in organic farming.  Food rationing. Soup kitchens. Breadlines and more…

Or perhaps the plan is war to gain access to oil. Again, that’s not a long-term solution, just a Last Man Standing strategy. Which is why there’s so much propaganda about renewables — no worries if fossils decline!

Originally the plan may have been to befriend oil nations, as FDR did with Saudi Arabia in the 1940s (Rundell 2020) offering to defend them in exchange for oil if we needed it (but we haven’t had to import much from them due to Alaskan, South American, and other sources of oil).

But can we protect Saudi Arabia? No one anticipated the rise of China, with the largest blue navy in the world today. Plus they control up to 99% of many rare earth and other scarce minerals in every step of the chain from mining to finished goods. Nations that also have rare earths often sell them to China because they don’t have refineries and end product factories.

Many nations have nuclear weapons unfortunately.  Even a small war between Pakistan and India would kill billions of people as the ozone layer grew thin and nuclear winter ruined crop production for ten years on most of the planet.  A nuclear WWIII could drive us and millions of species to extinction in that case (Bardeen 2021, Coupe 2021, Jägermeyr 2020, Mills 2008, Robock 2011, Scherrer 2020).

And yet the U.S. is thinking of using small tactical nuclear weapons, despite the risk of escalating the conflict tipping the launch of the big guys, the ICBMs and submarine missiles that can take out whole cities. The U.S. Navy has already deployed an 8 kiloton warhead on a Trident submarine, the big guy missiles on board are 90 to 450 KT in comparison (Kaplan 2020). China and Russia have these too.

Or maybe the plan in the U.S. is for everyone to kill each other to get back to a carrying capacity of 40 to 100 million people (Pimentel 1990).  U.S. civilians and police departments have at least 20 million assault rifles.  And overall there are 393.3 million guns, 120 for every 100 people.  Or perhaps 434 million according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the gun industry’s largest trade group.  No one knows for sure because the government doesn’t keep track of the number of guns in circulation.  Gun ownership is bound to go up. Mass shootings have been a real boon to the gun industry, every time someone goes postal gun sales go way up (Busse 2021, Callcut 2019).

Or let’s get really crazy – perhaps The Plan in a nation, could be any nation, or by the elites, as Jay Hanson speculated in energyresources, to create or allow a pandemic to spread.  Jay thought the elites would do this to make oil and other resources available so they could still get around in their private airplanes and yachts to visit their numerous luxury properties.

The simple answer about what The Plan is for fossil decline is probably there isn’t one, can’t be one. As Graff (2018) points out in his book about the government’s plans to carry on with democracy after a nuclear war with Russia that it’s simply impossible to build underground cities and bunkers to house every American in case of a nuclear war and stockpile them with years of food.  The plan now is to let a few hundred top officials escape to a few safe places dug under mountains with years of food stockpiled inside.  That’s why government plans for “How to Build your Own Bomb Shelter” were published.

You’re on your own. Though the Mormons will probably do best, they are expected to stockpile a year of food in their homes, and the Mormon church owns more farmland than any other entity.

Ultimately, since we’ve harmed the planet in so may ways using the tremendous power of fossil fuels — eroding topsoil, emptying aquifers, pollution, toxic chemicals, and changing our climate so much food production will be less in the future, the societies that emerge after collapse may be very different from what we know today. For example, depend on agriculture only part of the year and move between places seasonally.  Be ruled by city councils rather than autocrats, and have far more individual freedom as Graeber and Wengrow’s document in their wonderful book “Dawn of Everything“.  This book gives me tremendous hope about the future.

Small to mid-sized cities should make their own plans for the apocalypse

Boyd M (2025) Resilience to abrupt global catastrophic risks disrupting trade: Combining urban and near-urban agriculture in a quantified case study of a globally median-sized city. PLOS ONE.
This paper found that under a normal climate, peas are the best urban agriculture crop for maximizing protein and calories while minimizing land requirements. In scenarios of nuclear winter—global cooling caused by large-scale nuclear war—sugar beets and spinach are the frontrunners.
Presumably the catastrophe is not an oil crisis, because in this paper, industrial farming continues, ensuring high yields, and farmers are able to make biofuels from crops.  Not likely in reality since they wouldn’t be made to diesel #2 specs and potentially harm the engines of tractors and combines.

So how useful is this study? The town studied was Palmerston North New Zealand with 91,000 people, surrounded by farm land and few other towns nearby.  Auckland is 511 km/318 miles north, so perhaps not easily overwhelmed by urban invaders.

I think it is a bit too rosy, but nonetheless ought to be done in small to mid-sized towns in agricultural areas for emergency planning, setting up community gardens now with good soil, and more.

Abrupt global catastrophes—such as nuclear wars, extreme pandemics, or solar storms—could severely hamper global trade. Shortages of resources like liquid fuels could disrupt food production and transport, possibly leading to famine. Prior research has suggested that this impact could be mitigated by urban agriculture, which includes such approaches as home, community, and rooftop gardens.

Explained at phys.org: After the apocalypse: Urban and near-urban farming may be enough to sustain mid-size cities

References

Ball J (2008) Prominent Peaker Tells Allies to (Temporarily) Pipe Down. The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-EB-2068

Bardeen CG et al (2021) Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation. JGR atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035079

Busse R (2021) Gunfight: My Battle Against the Industry that Radicalized America. PublicAffairs.

Callcut RA et al (2019) Effect of mass shootings on gun sales—A 20-year perspective. J Trauma Acute Care Surg.

Coupe J, Stevenson S, NS Lovenduski et al (2021) Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios. Communications Earth & Environment.

Friedemann AJ (2016) When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation. Springer.

Graeber D, Wengrow D (2021) The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity.

Hanson J (2004) Post 51366 in yahoo group Energy Resources.

Hirsch RL, et al (2005) Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management. Department of Energy.

Jägermeyr J et al (2020) A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences..

Kaplan F (2020) The Senseless Danger of the Military’s New “Low-Yield” Nuclear Warhead. Slate.com

Mills, M.J.  8 Apr 2008. Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences vol 105:14:5307-5312.

Nikiforuk A (2010) Tar Sands: Dirty Oil and the Future of a Continent. Greystone books.

NRC (2009) America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. 2009. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering.

Meadows D (2002) Chicken Little, Cassandra, and the Real Wolf. Formerly at http://www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/228.html and post 27238 in energyresources.

Pettijohn FJ (1984) Memoirs of an Unrepentant Field Geologist: A Candid Profile of Some Geologists and their Science, 1921-1981. University of Chicago Press.

Pimentel D, Pimentel M (1990) Land, energy, and water: the constraints governing ideal U.S. population size. The NPG forum. PMID: 12178968

Robock, A. 2011. Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Nature 473: 275-6

Rundell D (2020) Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads. I.B. Taruis.

Scherrer KJN et al (2020) Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war. PNAS. http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/NuclearFishPNAS.pdf

Senate 106-930. July 20, 2000. Energy and agriculture. U.S. Senate.

Senate 109–385. November 16, 2005. High costs of crude: the new currency of foreign policy. U.S. Senate Hearing.

Senate 109-861. March 30, 2006. The Hidden Cost of Oil. U.S. Senate hearing.

Senate 109-860. May 16, 2006. Energy security and oil dependence. U.S. Senate hearing.

Senate 109-64. June 2006. Energy diplomacy and security. a compilation of statements by witnesses before the Committee on Foreign Relations. U.S. Senate.

Senate  111–78. May 12, 2009. Energy Security: Historical perspectives and Modern challenges. U.S. Senate.

Senate 111-105. July 16, 2009. $150 oil: Instability, terrorism and economic disruption. U.S. Senate.

USDA (2022) Farming and Farm Income. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/farming-and-farm-income/

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Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Climate change will damage energy infrastructure, costing trillions

Preface. Climate change and extreme weather will harm oil and gas exploration and production, electric power generation and increase energy demand due to sea level rise, heat, drought, floods, more storms, and blackouts.  Extreme heat and drought will force electric power plants to shut down from lack of cooling water. Our continuing exponentially growing population will increase demand on our falling apart energy infrastructure.  This report says that climate caused disasters are already costing billions of dollars, and in the future, trillions.

Climate change will makes blackouts and brownouts more common. It already is: Rising heat in the West has driven a steep increase in demand for air conditioning, bringing the electric grid down at times. As have wildfires. And as a preventive measure, utilities in California take the grid down for days if high winds are forecast, leaving millions in the dark. In Texas, an ice storm nearly blacked out the electric grid for months (Douglas 2021).

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How to fix our inland waterway system

Preface.  As you can see in Table 1 below, water transport is far more energy efficient than land transport, especially once we’re back to muscle power after fossil fuels are gone.

Kilojoules of energy used to carry one ton of cargo one kilometer Transportation mode
50 Oil tankers and bulk cargo ships
100–150 Smaller cargo ships
250–600 Trains
360 Barge
2000–4000 Trucks
30,000 Air freight
55,000 Helicopter

Table 1 Energy efficiency of transportation in kilojoules/ton/kilometer. Source: Smil (2013), Ashby (2015).

To prepare for energy descent, more canals should be created now, while we still have cheap plentiful energy. We’ll also need to keep in mind the maintenance and dredging of canals after fossils as well (De Decker 2018).

The National Academy of Science study (159 pages) found that the selection of waterways projects for authorization has a long history of being driven largely by political and local concerns. The approval and funding process is an irrational, byzantine mess.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

NRC. 2015. TRB special report 315: funding and managing the U.S. inland waterways system: what policy makers need to know. National Resource Council Transportation research board, National Academy of Sciences.

Inland waterway system stats:

  • The inland waterways system moves 6 to 7 percent of all domestic cargo in terms of total ton-miles, mostly coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, and crude materials.
  • Inland waterways include more than 36,000 miles of commercially navigable channels and roughly 240 working lock sites.
  • Barges mostly carry energy: coal, crude petroleum, petroleum products, and natural gas based fertilizers

2013 Commodities carried by USACE at http://www.navigationdatacenter.us/wcsc/pdf/pdrgcm13.pdf

  • Tons
  • Millions     Commodity
  • 312.3     Coal                      
  • 418.9     Crude petroleum
  • 508.6     Petroleum products
  • 39.9       Chemical fertilizer
  • 140.6      Chemicals excluding fertilizers
  • 53           Lumber, logs, wood chips, pulp
  • 163.5      Sand, gravel, shells, clay, salt, and slag
  • 85.4        Iron ore, iron, and steel waste and scrap
  • 29.5        Non-ferrous ores and scrap
  • 45           Primary non-metal products
  • 72           Primary metal products
  • 270         Food and food products
  • 121         Manufactured goods
  • 62.3        Unknown and not elsewhere classified products
  • 2,275      TOTAL

The inland waterways system provides for the domestic barge shipping component of the nation’s freight transportation system. The system infrastructure is managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and funded through the USACE inland navigation budget. The United States established and funded the federal inland waterways system early in the nation’s history to promote commercial shipping and the U.S. economy. Commercial shipping continues to drive federal economic interest in the system. The Executive Committee of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) initiated this consensus study of the inland waterways system because of reports of deteriorating and aged infrastructure combined with inadequate capital investment, a growing backlog of capital needs, and declining federal funding for inland navigation.

The primary concern of this report is funding for lock and dam infrastructure on rivers or river systems. Locks and dams are the main mechanism for enabling cargo movements and the most expensive component in maintaining the inland waterways for barge transportation, although other activities such as dredging are necessary and can be costly. The Great Lakes and the Saint Lawrence River are part of the larger inland marine transportation system but not a focus of this report because of the small number of locks and dams they contain.

Beyond the Scope. Issues related to ports and harbors are beyond the scope. USACE is responsible for deep draft harbor dredging to ensure that harbor channels can accommodate flows of freight carried on large vessels for international commerce. However, ports and harbors are managed and funded differently from the inland waterways and are not a focus of this report. Panama Canal expansion also is not addressed in this report except to the extent that it relates to arguments for the building of larger locks on parts of the inland waterways system. Broader water resource management and funding challenges and opportunities for the nation are beyond the scope of this report. USACE has three primary mission areas: navigation for freight transportation, flood control and damage reduction, and ecosystem restoration. Other activities performed by USACE include safety and disaster relief, hurricane and storm damage reduction, water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and waterborne recreation. This report focuses on funding for the inland waterways system with regard to the freight transportation mission;

The main cost in providing for barge service is maintaining locks and other infrastructure that enables cargo movements. While many locks are more than 50 years old, age is not a useful indicator of their condition. Many locks have been rehabilitated, and lock performance correlates poorly with age. The large backlog of capital projects also is not a reliable indicator of funding required for maintaining reliable freight service. The navigation share of these projects is modest, maintenance costs are not included in the backlog, and Congress has authorized more projects than can be funded.

The most critical need for the inland waterways system is a sustainable and well-executed plan for maintaining system reliability and performance that ensures efficient use of limited navigation resources. Time lost due to delays at locks and locks out of commission for repairs is a cost to shippers and an important consideration in deciding on future investments to maintain reliable freight service. System-wide, about 20% of time lost in transportation is caused by scheduled and unscheduled outages. A more targeted operations and maintenance (O&M) budget would prioritize facilities that are most in need of maintenance and for which the economic cost of disruption would be highest.

In contrast to the need to focus on system reliability, much of the policy discussion about the inland waterways system centers on the user charges to support the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is dedicated to capital improvement projects.

The passage of an increase in the barge fuel tax by the 113th Congress only heightens the urgency of settling on a plan for maintenance, since under federal law any new revenues from the barge fuel tax can be used only for construction and not for O&M, for which the federal government pays the full cost. Because funds for capital projects raised by the barge fuel tax must be matched by the federal government, O&M competes directly with construction for federal general revenues. O&M now accounts for about 75% of the requested inland navigation budget (roughly $650 million annually). Without a new funding strategy that prioritizes O&M and repairs, repairs may continue to be deferred until reaching $20 million (the point at which they become classified as a capital expenditure), which would result in further deterioration and in an inefficient and less reliable system.

More reliance on a “user-pays” funding strategy for the commercial navigation system is feasible, would generate new revenues for maintenance, and would promote economic efficiency. In a climate of constrained federal funds and with O&M becoming a greater part of the inland navigation budget, it is reasonable to examine whether beneficiaries could help pay for the system to increase revenues for the system and improve economic efficiency. Indeed, Congress, in the 2014 Water Resources Reform and Development Act (Section 2004, Inland Waterways Revenue Studies), called for a study of whether and how the various beneficiaries of the waterways might be charged. A reconceived system of user charges would focus policy attention on a sustainable plan for system performance and efficiency. Since users are not responsible for the cost of O&M, strong incentives exist to overcapitalize the system. Dedicating revenues from users to O&M instead of only capital expenditures would focus maintenance spending on the assets that users most value and result in a system that is more cost-effective and efficient.

Commercial navigation is the primary beneficiary of the inland waterways, and commercial carriers impose significant marginal costs on the system. Charging commercial navigation beneficiaries for the costs associated with their use of the system is feasible. User charges may be restructured in a variety of ways. There is no single best option; the preferred choice for achieving a policy goal may be to combine one or more of the options, such as an increase in the barge fuel tax with user fees. Charging user fees on the basis of facility and segment usage would identify the parts of the waterways most valued by shippers and warranting maintenance. Multiple criteria would apply in choosing among the user charge options: ease of administration, revenue potential, distribution of burden across user groups, and design components that would reinforce the efficient use of resources and cost-effective expenditures. A trust fund for maintenance would ensure that all new funds collected are dedicated to inland navigation while providing greater latitude for USACE to disburse funds for maintaining the system according to criteria approved by Congress and with the involvement of the Inland Waterways Users Board, whose current advisory role is limited to capital spending.

Asset management can help prioritize maintenance and ascertain the level of funding required for the system. A standard process for assessing the ability of the inland waterways system to meet demand for commercial navigation service and for prioritizing spending for maintenance and repairs is lacking. For reasons explained in this report, the capital projects backlog and age of inland waterways infrastructure are not reliable indicators of the needs of the system or the amount of investment required. Regardless of who pays for the system, a program of economically efficient asset management (EEAM), fully implemented and linked to the budgeting process, would prioritize maintenance spending and ascertain the funding levels required for reliable freight service.

OVERVIEW OF U.S. INLAND WATERWAYS

The inland waterways navigation system is part of the U.S. marine transportation system (MTS), which provides for both passenger transport and domestic freight transportation infrastructure and coastal gateways for global trade (TRB 2004). The MTS includes navigable waterways and public and private ports on three coasts (Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf) and the Great Lakes as well as a network of inland waterways (CMTS 2008). It includes, by extension, inland highway and rail connections between ports and inland markets that ensure access to the water for shippers and customers in all 50 states (AASHTO 2013; CMTS 2008). The inland and intra-coastal waterways directly serve 41 states (Clark et al. 2012). The inland waterways system comprises navigable rivers linked by a series of major canals. Lock and dam infrastructure is the chief mechanism in enabling the upstream and downstream movement of cargo, and its installation is the most expensive component in providing for navigation service (McCartney et al. 1998).

Waterways are categorized as deep draft, shallow draft, both (allowing both shallow and deep draft vessels), or non-navigable, as the inland and intra-coastal waterways are access routes for deep draft vessels; with those included, the committee counts 41 (43 including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico). Some are coastal states (e.g., California, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland) with minor inland or intra-coastal waterways outside of the committee’s charter. For example, 12 states, ranked by ton-miles, account for 80% of ton-miles and 74% of tons moved by inland waterway.

Because of shallow drafts and seasonal changes in navigable depths, fixed infrastructure is required in many parts of the river system to maintain open navigation for commerce.

Most of the navigable channels are rivers located in the central and eastern half of the country. The largest river system is the Mississippi, which is navigable for about 1,800 miles from New Orleans, Louisiana, to Minneapolis, Minnesota, and has a large tributary system. In the western part of the country the largest inland waterway is the Columbia–Snake River system.

Water transportation contributes nearly $115 billion in value added to U.S. GDP, compared with nearly $120 billion from truck transportation, more than $60 billion from air transportation, more than $30 billion from rail transportation, and $15 billion from pipeline transportation

Upper Mississippi River

The Upper Mississippi River flows south from Minneapolis, Minnesota, 858 miles to the mouth of the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois. The navigation channel above Saint Louis, Missouri, is maintained at a minimum depth of 9 feet by a system of 27 locks and dams. Agriculture-related products dominate the commodity flows on this river. Farm products, primarily grain bound for export through the Gulf Coast deepwater ports, account for 32 percent of the tonnage. The Upper Mississippi also is the top regional source for corn and soybean exports. The second-ranked commodity is coal, which accounts for 22% of the tonnage. Much of the chemical tonnage (10 percent of the total) consists of fertilizers shipped upbound back to the farm belt. The dominant flows on the Upper Mississippi illustrate the modal competition and cooperation aspects of much waterborne commerce. For example, much of the grain is shipped by truck or rail to waterside grain elevators for transloading to barges, which then transload again to deepwater vessels in southern Louisiana for export to world grain markets. Trains also bring grain to the Gulf Coast, so for some farms there is at times a genuine modal choice between rail and water transport. However, grain transactions turn on margins as low as cents per bushel, so most shippers are essentially heavily dependent on one mode or the other. During the height of the harvest season, the capacities of both the rail and the inland waterways systems are stretched to keep up with shipping demand. The coal traffic on the system consists largely of low-sulfur coal that is shipped by unit train from the western coal fields to large transloading facilities at places like Cora and Metropolis, Illinois, where it is loaded onto barges for movement to waterside electric power plants on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Usually, competition among transport modes to serve a major shipper facility occurs when the facility site is being selected. Once the decision is made to locate a facility on a particular mode (e.g., a grain elevator or power plant is located on a river), goods movement tends to depend on that mode.

Lower Mississippi River

The Lower Mississippi River flows 956 miles from the mouth of the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, to the Mouth of Passes in the Gulf of Mexico. There are no navigation locks on this portion of the inland waterways system. Navigation depth is maintained by river training works such as groins and revetments and by periodic maintenance dredging of shoals. Operations on this segment typically feature large tows, since the size of tows is not constrained by lock sizes. Table 2-3 shows the commodity tonnages on the 720-mile stretch from Cairo to Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The commodity mix there is similar to that on the Upper Mississippi, but the quantities are 50 to 100 percent greater.

Ohio River System

The Ohio River begins at the junction of the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and flows in a southwesterly direction 981 miles to its mouth at Cairo, Illinois, where it empties into the Mississippi River. Navigation is maintained at a minimum 9-foot channel depth by 20 locks and dams on the Ohio River (Olmsted Lock will replace two older locks near the lower end of the river). Table 2-3 shows the commodity flow on the entire Ohio River system, which includes the Ohio mainstem and its tributaries. The Monongahela, Kanawha, and Tennessee Rivers contribute significant flow to the Ohio. Coal is the dominant commodity on the system, making up 59 percent of the tonnage in 2012. Most is steam coal, which moves both inbound and outbound on the system. Coal mines in Appalachia send coal to the river via conveyor belt, truck, and rail for shipment to river-located electric power generation plants. Those power plants also receive upbound coal from other sources, and there is still considerable movement of metallurgical coal on the Ohio and its tributaries. The second-ranked commodity group, crude materials (nearly 22 percent of the total), consists primarily of sand, gravel, and limestone. While rail lines run parallel along most of the Ohio, they are primarily part of the nation’s extensive east–west manufactured products and foodstuffs distribution system. As a practical matter, the large quantities of coal and crude materials moving on the Ohio could not easily be diverted to rail. Coal alone would require the railroads to handle more than 1 million additional carloads annually and to provide in excess of 26 more train movements per day (Kruse et al. 2012). Furthermore, most of the shipping and receiving facilities for this traffic are designed and operated specifically to handle barge shipments. Thus, as was the case for the Upper Mississippi, rail, truck, pipeline, and conveyor belts are complementary to water transport.

Gulf Intracoastal Waterway

The GIWW provides a protected route along the Gulf Coast from Saint Marks, Florida, to the Mexican border at Brownsville, Texas. The total distance is 1,109 miles, and the maintained minimum channel depth is 12 feet. The system includes 10 locks, which serve a variety of purposes. The Inner Harbor Navigation Canal lock at New Orleans connects the Mississippi River to the GIWW and overcomes elevation differences between the river and the canal. The lock is currently one of the most congested on the entire inland waterways system. As would be expected in view of the GIWW’s location in the largest petrochemical region of the United States, petroleum and chemicals dominate the system’s commodity flow. Together they made up 76.5 percent of the tonnage in 2012. Crude materials ranked third, at nearly 15 percent. Within these broad groups a wide variety of specific commodities are moved, in keeping with the region’s complex industrial base. Pipelines are the main competing and complementary mode, but the circumstances of individual plant locations and outputs defy any easy generalizations.

Illinois River

The Illinois extends 292 miles from Lockport, Illinois, to its mouth at the Mississippi River at Grafton, Illinois, just above Saint Louis. Above Lockport, various channels connect the Illinois River and the Mississippi River system to Lake Michigan at Chicago, Illinois. The Illinois has a minimum maintained channel depth of 9 feet and seven lock sites with single chambers 600 feet long by 110 feet wide. These dimensions require the typical tow of 15 jumbo barges to double lock, and the lack of auxiliary chambers means that any lock outage will shut down navigation. The Illinois is a typical moderate-use waterway. It moved 31 million tons in 2012. The commodity mix was similar to that on the Mississippi, but with a smaller proportion of coal and a greater proportion of petroleum and chemicals.

Columbia River System

The Columbia River has the longest inland navigation channel on the U.S. West Coast. The Columbia provides a shallow draft waterway (14-foot depth) from Kennewick, Washington, to Vancouver, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, a distance of approximately 225 miles. Below Portland, a deep draft channel (40 feet) extends approximately 100 miles to the river’s mouth at the Pacific Ocean. There are four navigation dams on the shallow draft section. Above Kennewick, the Snake River allows navigation for 140 miles upstream to Lewiston, Idaho. The Willamette River drains northwestern Oregon and flows into the Columbia near Portland, where it forms part of that city’s deep draft harbor. Agriculture dominates flows on the Columbia. Food and farm products constituted 53 percent of the tonnage in 2012. About 76 percent of these agricultural products were grain and soybeans shipped for export. The Columbia River is the top gateway for U.S. wheat exports. It accounts for about 16 percent of all food and farm products moved on the inland waterways and about 3 percent of all food and farm imports and exports. Crude materials, largely forest products and sand and gravel, made up another 20 percent of the tonnage. The river also plays an important role in distribution of petroleum products throughout the region. There are rail lines along both the north and the south shores of the Columbia River. They are running at or near capacity, with much of that capacity devoted to serving the intermodal container trade.

Commodity Trends by Corridor

  • Coal: Ohio River system, including the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers;
  • Food and farm: Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers to New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Petrochemical: Mississippi River from Saint Louis, Missouri, to New Orleans
  • Manufactured goods: Mississippi River from Saint Louis to New Orleans
  • Crude materials: Ohio and Upper Mississippi Rivers (from Saint Louis) to New Orleans
  • Food & farm: Columbia River system, including Columbia, Snake, and Willamette Rivers;
  • Chemical goods: Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW)
  • Petroleum goods: GIWW.

As shown in Table 2-3, the principal commodities carried on inland waterways system corridors are coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, crude materials, manufactured goods, and manufactured equipment. Examination of annual commodity trends for several of the chief commodities on most of the primary corridors during the period 2000 to 2013 indicates adequate capacity in the system. Aside from petroleum products moving on the Lower Mississippi, commodity movement appears to be stable or declining for more than a decade for most corridor segments

Modal Shift to Road or Rail Resulting from Loss of Waterway Corridor

The Transportation Research Board’s Executive Committee wanted this study to cover possible impacts of a major diversion of freight from water on highway systems should a waterway fail because of deferred maintenance. In view of the volume that can be moved by one barge being equal to the payloads of many trucks, state officials have expressed concern about the consequences of massive numbers of heavy trucks replacing shipments that had moved by water for highway congestion and pavement and bridge infrastructure.

Age of Locks

Figure 2-8 shows a map of inland waterways lock infrastructure by original construction date. Figure 2-9 shows the average age of lock and dam infrastructure in comparison with other federal and state infrastructure and transportation assets. The average age of the locks in 1940 was less than 10 years; in 1980 the average age of the locks was about 30 years (whether or not major rehabilitation work was considered); in 2014 the average age was 59 years.

After rehabilitation is accounted for, in 2014 more than 50% of the locks were more than 50 years old

76% of barge cargo (in ton-miles) moves on just 22% of the 36,000 inland waterway miles. About 50% of the inland waterway ton-miles moves on 6 major corridors that represent 16% of the inland waterway miles—the Upper Mississippi River, the Illinois River, the Ohio River, the Lower Mississippi River, the Columbia River system, and the GIWW.

Some inland waterways segments have minimal or no freight traffic.

With shrinking resources for the system and growing demands on the USACE O&M budget, targeting commercial navigation investments mainly to portions of the system important for moving freight would be prudent.

Lost transportation time due to delays and lock unavailability (outages) is a cost to shippers and an important consideration in deciding on future investments. Systemwide, about 80 percent of lost transportation time is attributable to delays. On average, 49 percent of tows in 2013 were delayed across the 10 highest-tonnage locks, with an average length of tow delay of 3.8 hours. Some delay is expected for routine maintenance, weather, accidents, and other reasons, but delays can be affected by maintenance outages caused by decreases in the reliability of aging machinery or infrastructure. About 12% of lost time on the inland waterways system is due to scheduled closures and about 8% is due to unscheduled closures, which indicates that up to 20% of lost time could be addressed with more targeted O&M resources. Targeting O&M resources toward major facilities with frequent lockages and high volumes and where the lost time due to delay is significantly higher than the river average could improve navigation performance. Most lost service due to delay occurs at high-demand locks used for agricultural exports and so may be caused by congestion related to peaks in seasonal shipping. Data are not available to explain the causes of delay at locks, which makes up 80 percent of lost transportation hours. Delays might be attributable to seasonal peak volumes due to weather, harvest, under-capacity, or other causes. Collection of data and development of performance metrics would enhance understanding of whether delay problems could be most efficiently addressed by more targeted O&M, traffic management, capacity enhancement, or some combination of these measures. Some high-use locks are located on waterways designated as low or moderate use, which has implications for how to allocate funds across parts of the system. This situation can occur because of seasonal peaks in the movement of certain commodities, such as harvested food and farm products, or from navigation closures caused by annually recurring weather conditions, such as ice or flooding. The tonnage moved through each lock during peak demand periods, as well as the type and value of the cargo, could be considered in funding allocations instead of considering only average annual waterway ton-miles. Likewise, some rivers and waterborne corridors may move as much or more tonnage on a seasonal basis as rivers classified as high use but receive low-use classification on the basis of annual ton-miles of transport rather than seasonal peak ton-miles.

The advanced age of lock and dam infrastructure is often used to communicate funding needs for the system. Age is not a good indicator of lock condition. A substantial number of locks have been rehabilitated, which would be expected to restore performance to its original condition if not better. Dating the age of assets from the time of the last major rehabilitation, as is done for highway infrastructure such as bridges, would be more accurate. Furthermore, with some exceptions, little correlation exists between the age of locks and their performance as measured by delay experienced by system users. A more useful approach for targeting funds to improve system performance than focusing on age as a proxy for lock functioning would be to identify waterway segments and facilities where the lost time due to delay (based on millions of tons delayed) is substantially higher than the system average.

Federal Role in the Inland Waterways System

The inland waterways infrastructure is managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and funded from the USACE budget.

USACE, under its Civil Works Program headed by the Assistant Secretary for Civil Works, plans, constructs, operates, and maintains a large water resources infrastructure that includes locks and dams for inland navigation; maintenance of harbor channel depths; dams, levees, and coastal barriers for flood risk management; hydropower generation facilities; and recreation. The primary USACE Civil Works mission areas are support of navigation for freight transportation and public safety; reduction of flood and storm damage; and protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, such as the rebuilding of wetlands and the performance of environmental mitigation for USACE facilities. Hydropower generation is an important activity of USACE, although it has not been considered a primary mission. Other USACE responsibilities include recreation, maintenance of water supply infrastructure (municipal water and wastewater facilitates), and disaster relief and remediation beyond flood disaster relief (e.g., remediation of formerly used nuclear sites

Whereas some federal agencies have broad authorities, Congress authorizes each capital investment for capacity expansion, facility replacement, or major rehabilitation of USACE water infrastructure projects. A construction project generally originates with a request to a congressional office from communities, businesses or other organizations, and state and local governments for federal assistance.1 Since 1974, the process for authorizing federal water resources projects, including infrastructure for freight transportation, has been the omnibus bill typically called the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA).2 On the basis of this legislation, Congress authorizes individual capital projects and numerous other USACE activities and provides policy direction in areas such as project delivery, revenue generation,

Benefit–cost analysis is the primary criterion used in selecting capital expenditures projects for funding. Projects that pass a minimum threshold for determining that the benefit exceeds the cost are eligible for congressional authorization and funding.

Two types of congressional authorizations are required for a construction project—one for investigation and one for project implementation.3 First, authority is provided for a feasibility study in which the local USACE district investigates engineering feasibility, formulates alternative plans, conducts benefit–cost analysis, and assesses environmental impacts under the National Environmental Policy Act.4 The study results are conveyed to Congress through a Chief of Engineers Report (Chief’s Report) that contains either a favorable or an unfavorable recommendation for each project. Study results also are submitted to the executive office of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which applies its own fiscal, benefit–cost, and other criteria to assess whether projects warrant funding according to executive branch objectives. Congress considers USACE study results, recommendations of OMB, and other factors in choosing projects to authorize. Thus, both the projects selected for initial study and the project authorizations are at the discretion of Congress.

After Congress authorizes a project, it becomes eligible to receive implementation funding in annual Energy and Water Development appropriations acts. The appropriations process begins with the submission of the annual President’s budget. To be included in the President’s budget, authorized projects must compete within the overall USACE program ceiling not only for initial funding but also for continued annual funding throughout the project’s life cycle

Once Congress receives the President’s budget request, it is “marked up” by the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, where project funding levels are adjusted in response to congressional priorities. Even if an authorized project has received initial construction funding, there is no assurance that it will receive sufficient appropriations each year to provide for an efficient construction schedule. The actual funding for the project over its life cycle may be much less suitable.

  1. At this early stage, USACE typically engages in an advisory role to answer technical questions or to assess the level of interest in possible projects and the support of nonfederal entities (state, tribal, county, or local agencies and governments) that may become sponsors.
  2. The 2014 authorizing legislation is titled the Water Resources Reform and Development Act (WRRDA).
  3. If the geographic area was investigated in previous studies, the study may be authorized by a resolution of either the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee or the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
  4. According to WRRDA 2014, at any point during a feasibility study, the Secretary of the Army may terminate the study when it is clear that a project in the public interest is not possible for technical, legal, or financial reasons.
  5. After a project is authorized, modifications beyond a certain cost and scope require additional congressional authorization. A previous National Research Council (NRC) report (2012) encouraged less reliance on WRDA as the main vehicle for authorizing projects for USACE infrastructure. The traditional focus on WRDA for authorizing large new construction projects in particular is less relevant to a system that is mostly “built out” and for which the main concern is a sustainable source of funding for ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) and major repairs. Although WRDA drives capital funding for freight transportation on the inland waterways, it is largely disconnected from federal legislative processes and efforts related to other freight modes. Similarly, the goal of the USACE planning process is to determine whether a navigation project is eligible for funding, not to assess whether the project will be the most efficient option for meeting national freight transportation needs and economic interests given the availability of other modes. (The benefit–cost analyses required for the authorization of navigation projects must consider other modes to a degree, as described later in this chapter.)

A national freight system perspective on the efficiency of the nation’s freight network is generally lacking, and no mechanism exists for prioritizing spending across modes.

Operations and Maintenance O&M projects can be authorized under WRDA, but it has not often been used for this purpose (see NRC 2012, Table 2-2, for exceptions in WRDA 2007). USACE headquarters sets priorities for O&M investments as part of the budgeting process on the basis of information gathered from USACE districts and divisions. Eight USACE divisions coordinate projects and budgets in 38 district offices across the United States. Districts develop plans, priorities, and rankings for investigations, construction, and O&M and submit them to USACE divisions. Divisions prioritize projects across their districts and provide division-wide rankings of projects to USACE headquarters. USACE headquarters considers division priorities and rankings, administration budget priorities, and other factors in ranking requests.6 The number of projects funded each year depends on the annual budget appropriation by Congress.

The local assessment of assets and maintenance needs follows general guidelines, but it has many local variations. For example, districts may develop their own asset management systems for assessing and communicating the condition of infrastructure and level of service being provided for navigation and O&M and repair needs. According to a past NRC report, with respect to water resources funding, “neither the Congress nor the administration provides clear guiding principles and concepts that the USACE might use in prioritizing OMR [operations, maintenance, and repair] needs and investments” (NRC 2012, 11). Full benefit–cost analysis is applied only to construction and not to O&M,7 which is appropriate given the costs of conducting benefit–cost analysis relative to the cost of O&M projects.

Distinctions Among O&M, Major Rehabilitation, and Construction USACE separates projects labeled as “major rehabilitation” from its O&M budget. Major rehabilitation projects meet the following criteria established in a series of Water Resources Development Acts from 1986 to 2014.8 ? Requires approval by the Secretary of the Army and construction is funded out of the Construction General Civil Works appropriation for USACE. ? Includes economically justified structural work for restoration of a major project feature that extends the life of the feature significantly or enhances operational efficiency. ? Requires a minimum of 2 fiscal years to complete. ? Costs more than $20 million in capital outlays for reliability improvement projects or more than $2 million in capital outlays for efficiency improvement projects. These thresholds are adjusted annually by regulation and are subject to negotiation.

Major rehabilitation projects are treated as capital projects for new construction in the budgeting process instead of being considered an expense of maintaining the system. The decision to classify major rehabilitations a capital expenditure instead of as an O&M expense is arbitrary.9

FUNDING FOR THE INLAND WATERWAYS NAVIGATION SYSTEM

Cost-Sharing Rules Before 1978, the inland navigation system was funded almost entirely through general revenues collected from taxpayers. Congress transformed funding for the inland waterways by passing two pieces of legislation: the Inland Waterways Revenue Act of 1978 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1986, which created the funding framework followed today. This legislation established a tax on diesel fuel for commercial vessels paid by the barge industry and an Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) to pay for construction with fuel tax revenues. It also increased the nonfederal cost-sharing requirements for inland navigation construction projects.

The required cost share depends on whether the navigation project is classified as a capital cost or as O&M. For single-purpose navigation projects and multiple-purpose projects assigned to the navigation budget, the federal government pays 100 percent of O&M costs, 50 percent of capital costs (including capacity expansion, replacement, and major rehabilitation), and 100 percent of rehabilitation costs up to $20 million (costs for a single repair or set of repairs that exceed this amount are considered major rehabilitation and a capital cost). The waiving or adjustment of cost-sharing requirements for individual projects is infrequent and typically requires authorization by Congress. The federal share for commercial navigation is paid via general revenues. The commercial users’ share is paid for with a diesel fuel tax per gallon via the IWTF; the tax is collected by the Internal Revenue Service. The fuel tax was initially set at $0.04 per gallon and is not indexed to inflation. In 1986 legislation, the tax was set to rise to its current level of $0.20 per gallon, where it has remained until 2014, when the 113th Congress approved an increase in the barge fuel tax to $0.29 per gallon. In contrast to the cost share for navigation, the O&M costs for nonnavigation projects are paid for partly by sponsors. The federal share depends on the type of water resource project (see Table 3-1). For many project types (e.g., levees), the nonfederal sponsor is responsible for O&M once construction is complete. Furthermore, inland waterways feasibility studies to determine the eligibility of a navigation project for funding are entirely a federal expense; in contrast, for deepwater navigation and nonnavigation projects, the federal share for feasibility studies is 50 percent.

Patterns and Trends in Funding for the Inland Waterways System

In terms of constant dollars, funding for construction and O&M for lock and dam facilities is at its lowest point in more than 20 years and is on a downward trajectory (see Figures 3-1a and 3-1b). The balance of the IWTF, which is used to pay 50 percent of construction costs, has declined. The fund was at its highest level, $413 million, in 2002 (see Figure 3-2). The balance fell sharply between 2005 and 2010 as expenditures for inland waterways exceeded fuel tax collections and interest on the trust fund balance. Reasons for the decline include increased appropriations, lower fuel tax revenues than in previous years, large construction costs, and construction cost overruns. Capital projects are funded incrementally by Congress through the annual budgeting and appropriations process. Incremental federal funding, an increasingly common procedure in which only a portion of the total budget for a project is appropriated, contributes to project delivery delays and higher costs (NRC 2011; NRC 2012, 29, gives another example on the Lower Monongahela River). Between 2005 and 2010, Congress made a conscious effort to “spend down” the IWTF to accelerate project completions and reduce the size of the backlog of authorized projects.

Capital Projects Backlog

A substantial number of water resources projects that have been authorized by Congress via WRDA remain unfunded through the appropriations process. These projects are known as the

Congress considers the recommendations of USACE and OMB, but the selection of waterways projects for authorization has a long history of being driven largely by political and local concerns (Ferejohn 1974).

While concerns about the backlog have been expressed, its size is not a reliable indicator of the funding needed for the inland navigation system for at least three reasons. First, O&M spending is not reflected in the backlog. With the aging of the system, maintenance has become a higher priority. Second, navigation projects make up only a portion of the backlog ($4.1 billion) (CRS 2011); most of the backlog relates to waterways infrastructure serving other purposes such as flood control.

Third, not all of the projects in the navigation backlog are priorities. In contrast to its practice for other modes, Congress authorizes and appropriates funds on a project-by-project basis. Benefit–cost analysis is used to determine whether a construction projects meets a minimum threshold of eligibility for pursuing authorization and appropriations and is generally suitable for this purpose,16 but the lack of a prioritization process based on a formal assessment of system needs has resulted in the authorization of more projects than can be funded within the constraints of the budget. The current practice is for OMB to set a minimum benefit–cost ratio that projects must meet to be included in the President’s annual budget request.17 While benefit– cost analysis is used in determining whether a project meets a minimum threshold for authorization, there is no indication that projects are further ranked against each other during the authorization process (GAO 2010). Because more projects are authorized than can be funded, priorities are sorted out in the budgeting and appropriations process, in which both the executive branch and Congress participate. IWUB, as part of a capital projects business

For these reasons, a method for prioritizing projects on the basis of the service needs of the system may be more useful than an attempt to estimate and seek funding for the entire backlog. As for O&M, a standard process is needed for prioritizing spending for capital projects for construction and major rehabilitation and to ascertain the level of funding required across the system to maintain reliable freight service. (Prioritization is discussed in Chapter 4.) A number of temporary measures have been

FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT COMPARED WITH OTHER TRANSPORTATION MODES

States and private enterprise led the initial building of inland waterways infrastructure and charged for use of the waterways. Federal involvement in the inland waterways system began in the 18th century, when the scope and scale of inland waterways projects grew beyond what any private entity or state could or would take on, especially without the ability to realize a monetary return on investment. Congress made these federal investments to promote inland waterways commerce, which was central to the economic development of the United States. This history has led to a unique federal role in the inland waterways system among all the freight transportation modes. Today, waterborne transportation is the only freight mode for which Congress authorizes and appropriates funds (for construction and O&M) on a project-by-project basis. Federal management and decision-making responsibilities for freight transportation generally are fragmented across jurisdictional lines in Congress, multiple federal agencies, and different silos of funding. Whereas USACE and the U.S. Coast Guard (part of the Department of Homeland Security) manage the marine and inland waterways systems, the U.S. Department of Transportation has responsibilities for highway, aviation, rail, and pipeline. Various congressional committees are responsible for authorizations and appropriations for the different modes. Decisions about inland waterways investments, including ports, channels, and infrastructure, are made largely at the federal level.18

However, most decisions about highway investments are made at the state and metropolitan levels. For ports, investment decisions are made mainly by independent private entities and sometimes by state or bi-state port authorities. As private transport industries, railroads and pipelines make their own decisions about investments.

Public and private shares of funding also differ across modes. Highways, aviation, ports (harbor and channel dredging and maintenance), and the inland waterways all receive federal aid for capital costs. In addition, the inland waterways, harbors, and channels receive federal general revenues support for O&M.

Rail and pipeline, with which the inland waterways system competes to some degree, are almost entirely private enterprises, with minimal federal assistance for infrastructure.

For highways, the federal government pays a significant share for new construction, but O&M is a state and local financial responsibility.

The federal government, through general revenues, pays more for water transportation as a percentage of total O&M and construction costs compared with federal contributions to highways and rail. For the inland waterways system, federal support is used to cover a large shortfall between the fees paid by users and total system costs.

In contrast, fees paid by the users of highway and rail modes cover a much greater share of the capital and O&M costs of those transportation systems. General federal tax revenues pay about 90% of total inland waterways system costs

This compares with virtually no federal general revenue support for rail system users and pipeline, and historically only about 25 percent federal support for highways, which are primarily derived from user fees.

Federal Subsidies for the Various Freight Transportation Modes

Federal subsidies for the various freight modes are complicated and contested among advocates for the modes, in part because of disagreements about (a) direct subsidies that are funded by various public sources and (b) indirect subsidies that result from costs imposed on the public (externalities) that are not part of market transactions between shippers and carriers. No authoritative study has estimated either direct or indirect subsidies across the various freight modes, although a previous Transportation Research Board study (TRB 1996) developed and pilot-tested a methodology for estimating freight external costs.

Assessing direct subsidies is more straightforward among the modes with which water competes (rail, pipeline, and, to a much lesser degree, trucking). Freight railroads are private entities that fund the vast bulk of their operations and capital and maintenance spending from their own funds. Limited federal funds are available for grade separation projects (to separate traffic for safety and mobility), a modest federal loan guarantee program is available (principally for short lines), and state governments occasionally provide public funding for such purposes as raising bridges or tunnels for double-stack trains or to improve rail access to state ports. Although public funding is minimal in proportion to the $20 billion to $25 billion railroads have invested in capital stock annually since 2007,22 railroad modal competitors point out that many railroad rights-of-way were initially given in the 19th century by the federal government and states to encourage railroad development. Because pipelines are entirely private, the evaluation of subsidies is easier than for rail. Although long-distance truck–barge competition is unlikely because of the much higher cost of truck movements per ton-mile, there may be short segments in which truck and barge would compete. The trucking assessment of competitive subsidies is most complex because trucks use highways that are shared with passengers. Although both freight and passenger operators pay fuel taxes and other user fees, there is continued debate about whether the largest and heaviest trucks pay their share of the costs of building and maintaining highways (GAO 2012). Moreover, after decades of relying almost exclusively on federal and state user fees to fund interstate and intercity highways, in the past decade Congress has used general funds to supplement user fee revenues to the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) for the federal share of highway capital spending (CBO 2014). (Improved fuel economy and political opposition to raising fuel taxes have resulted in insufficient user fees into the HTF to pay for the federal share of highway capital improvements.)

Trucking is involved in at least one segment of all freight moves and often two,

Whereas trucks can serve almost all O-D pairs because of the ubiquity of roads and highways, and railroads reach many OD pairs as well, waterways are far more limited.

DECISIONS ABOUT FEDERAL FUNDING AND BENEFICIARY PAYMENTS FOR THE COMMERCIAL INLAND WATERWAYS SYSTEM

In a climate of constrained federal funds and with O&M becoming a greater part of the inland navigation budget, a pressing policy issue is how to pay to preserve the inland waterways system for commercial navigation. The structures (locks and dams) built and maintained for freight transportation have resulted in beneficiaries beyond commercial navigation. It is reasonable and, from an economic perspective, potentially efficiency enhancing to consider whether these beneficiaries could help pay for the system. Congress, in the 2014 WRRDA (Section 2004, Inland Waterways Revenue Studies), called for a study of whether and how the various beneficiaries of the waterways might be charged. The sections below assess the available evidence on benefits of the inland waterways used for freight transportation and the economic and practical considerations in charging for the benefits received.

Commercial navigation is the primary beneficiary of the inland waterways system. Benefits beyond commercial navigation may include hydropower generation, recreation, flood damage avoidance, municipal water supply, irrigation, higher property values for property owners, sewage assimilation, mosquito control, lower consumer costs because the availability of barge shipping may result in more competitive railroad pricing (referred to as water-compelled rates), and environmental benefits associated with lower fuel emissions of barge compared with other modes.

A possible national benefit of investing in the inland waterways is the environmental advantage that barge may have over other modes: barge’s lower fuel usage per ton-mile than other transportation modes may result in lower air emissions. Whether barge or rail is the more energy-efficient mode (measured as fuel use per ton-mile) depends in large part on the water

The total federal share of the cost of the inland waterways system is estimated to be about 90 percent (TRB 2009). The federal share is roughly 25 percent for the highways used by motor carriers and 0 percent for pipelines and nearly so for railroads (both private industries for which the federal role is primarily one of safety and environmental regulation). Whereas federal general revenues cover all O&M expenses for the inland waterways, states pay 100 percent of the O&M expenses, mostly from user fees, for intercity highways used by motor carriers. O&M expenses for railroads and pipelines are paid for by the private industries responsible for these modes.

Examination of whether beneficiaries could help pay for the system is rational and would improve economic efficiency. Commercial navigation beneficiaries are a viable option, since commercial carriers impose significant marginal costs.

A benefit–cost analysis prepared by USACE is the primary source of technical information that Congress uses during the authorization process in deciding when spending is justified for capital projects. While benefit–cost analyses have been used for determining whether a project meets a minimum threshold for funding, they have not been used to rank projects, and the result has been far more projects being authorized than can be afforded within the constraints of the budget. A method for prioritizing projects on the basis of the service needs of the system would be more useful than an attempt to estimate and seek funding for the existing backlog.

As mentioned, USACE’s primary mission with respect to navigation is to provide conditions that enable the passage of commercial traffic. The main cost of providing these conditions is the maintenance of lock and dam infrastructure, but the maintenance of channels and pools is part of the cost. USACE has developed a conceptual framework (described in more detail below) that considers the age of infrastructure and other elements consistent with EEAM to prioritize repairs that would cost-effectively extend the life of an asset or critical component of the asset and achieve a reliable navigation system. The elements include the probability of failure of the infrastructure; infrastructure usage (demand), defined as whether the waterway has low, moderate, or high levels of freight traffic; and the economic consequences of failure to shippers and carriers. This approach recognizes the importance of economic consequences for strategic investment instead of assuming that all navigation infrastructure needs to be maintained at its original condition. For USACE, the goal of prioritizing investments is to produce the greatest national economic development benefit, which for commercial navigation has meant maximizing reductions in the cost of cargo transported by using USACE waterway infrastructure. In practical terms, this means reducing the risk of physical failure and maintaining a target level of delays.

Although the specific procedures of the approach are just beginning to be implemented and refined and often are not clear, the framework is being applied at program, district, and headquarters levels to guide the identification of maintenance needs and funding requests. USACE intends to use the framework to implement a standardized assessment of assets across the system (outcomes-based assessment). The assessment is planned to cover all important aspects of asset management. However, USACE has not fully developed a set of measures or a standard methodology for assessing risk across all assets in the inland waterways system. Additional considerations that would need attention are described in the section of this chapter on implementation.

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

A standard process is lacking for assessing the ability of the inland waterways system to meet demand for commercial navigation service and for prioritizing spending for maintenance and repairs. An asset management program focused on economic efficiency, fully implemented and linked to the budgeting process, would prioritize maintenance spending and ascertain the funding levels required for reliable freight service. A well-executed program of asset management would promote rational and data-driven investment decisions based on system needs and minimize the broader influences that affect the budgeting process. USACE has adopted a generally appropriate framework for asset management that is mostly consistent with EEAM, but it is not yet fully developed or deployed across districts. The framework recognizes the importance of economic consequences for strategic investments and does not assume, as in the past, that all navigation infrastructure needs to be maintained at its original condition. The approach appropriately includes assessment of three main elements that follow from EEAM: the probability of failure of the infrastructure; infrastructure usage (demand), defined as whether the waterway has low, moderate, or high levels of freight traffic; and the economic consequences of failure to shippers and carriers.

This chapter discusses funding options for the inland waterways commercial navigation system other than reliance for the most part on federal general revenues. The immediate users of the inland waterways are the companies operating the barge tows that move commercial freight. They are the focus of this chapter. However, the burden of payments by the barge industry is not borne fully by the operators, and they do not enjoy all the benefits. The industries that use barge shipping benefit from the low cost of shipping their products, mostly commodities that are low in value relative to their weight such as coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, crude materials, and to a lesser degree manufactured goods and equipment. These commodities are sold for a price that is set by the market. If barge companies become the direct payers of a new user charge, their cost may be passed on in whole or in part in the form of increased costs to the shippers of these commodities and, in turn, to the producers and consumers of the commodities. The first section below describes the taxes or fees that might be paid by companies operating the barge tows that move commercial freight. The options could be used alone or in various combinations.

In recent years, proposals have been made to add to or replace the inland waterways barge fuel tax with user-specific fees. In contrast to a tax, user-specific fees are direct charges paid by an identifiable user in exchange for the opportunity to pass through a lock or use a portion of the waterways. Failure to pay the fee results in being excluded from the use of a service (i.e., denial of passage through a lock, use of a particular segment, or passage during times of peak traffic).

Direct Promotion of Efficient Use of Waterway Resources

The design of a user payment strategy can promote a waterways system that uses resources more efficiently (CBO 1992). The requirement that users of the system pay for its costs generates signals concerning the value of the system to the users and whether the benefits of the system justify the costs. In the private sector, payments by purchasers of a good or service send a clear signal concerning whether the purchasers are willing to pay the costs associated with providing it. Similarly, if users of the inland waterways system pay for the costs of navigation service on the various parts of the system (on a river segment or at a lock and dam facility), the payments show which parts of the system are cost-effective components of the national freight transportation system and should be maintained (GAO 2008). Parts of the system for which shippers are not able or willing to pay may be discontinued or justified under revenue streams other than federal navigation funding, as discussed later.

Conclusions

Debates about funding for the inland waterways system have long centered on the level of funding required, the roles of the federal government and users in paying for the system, and how users and other beneficiaries could be charged. These issues deserve renewed attention in light of shrinking federal budgets, declining appropriations for the inland waterways system, and increasing maintenance needs for its infrastructure.

SUMMARY OF MAJOR CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS

The policy context in which these issues were considered and the committee’s conclusions are summarized below. Three main messages emerge, as follows:

  1. Reliability and performance of the inland waterways freight system are the priorities for funding.
  2. Reliability and performance will depend more on investments in operations and maintenance (O&M) than on capital expenditures for larger locks.
  3. More reliance on a user-pays approach to funding the inland waterways for commercial navigation is feasible, would provide additional revenues for maintenance, and would promote economic efficiency for the system.

POLICY CONTEXT. The infrastructure of the federal inland waterways system is managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and funded through USACE’s navigation budget. The nation’s inland waterways include more than 36,000 miles of commercially navigable channels and roughly 240 working lock sites. The chief and most expensive component of providing for navigation service is the installation and maintenance of lock and dam infrastructure to enable the upstream and downstream movement of cargo. Historically, the federal government invested in the building of the inland waterways system to aid in the physical expansion of the United States and the growth of the U.S. economy by facilitating cargo shipments. Before 1978, the federal government paid all costs associated with construction and maintenance of the inland waterways. Legislation passed in 1978 and 1986 established the current funding and cost-sharing framework. Today, 11,000 miles of the inland waterways are subject to a federal fuel tax paid by the barge industry via the Inland Waterways Trust Fund to cover up to 50% of the cost of construction and major rehabilitation of lock and dam infrastructure.

The federal government pays 50 percent of construction costs from general revenues and 100 percent of the cost of O&M (by budgetary definition, O&M includes repairs up to $20 million; repairs that exceed $20 million and meet other criteria are considered major rehabilitation and classified as a capital expenditure). Although policy debates about funding for the inland waterways have focused on capital projects, O&M, which is paid for entirely with federal general revenues, now accounts for three-fourths of the annual budget request for inland navigation.

Because of historical precedent, the federal role in the management and funding of the inland waterways for commercial navigation is greater than for other freight modes. The total federal share of the cost of the inland waterways system is estimated to be about 90%t. The federal share is roughly 25% for the highways used by motor carriers and 0 percent for pipelines and nearly so for railroads (both private industries for which the federal role is primarily one of safety and environmental regulation). Whereas federal general revenues cover all O&M expenses for the inland waterways, states pay 100% of the O&M expenses, mostly from user fees, for intercity highways used by motor carriers. O&M expenses for railroads and pipelines are paid for by the private industries responsible for these modes.

With the exception of a one-time infusion of funds from federal economic stimulus legislation in 2009, the funds appropriated for inland navigation have declined over the past decade in terms of constant dollars for both O&M and construction. The level of funding required to sustain a reliable inland waterways system is not clear. The level of service required from the system, and therefore the parts of the existing system that need to be maintained, has not yet been defined. USACE does not have established systemwide guidance and procedures for the assessment of inland waterways infrastructure and the prioritization of maintenance and repair spending for reliable commercial navigation. In view of stagnant federal appropriations, system users have recognized that they need to pay more and supported an increase in the barge fuel tax by the 113th Congress. However, the increase will not be sufficient to maintain the system and only heightens the urgency of settling on a plan for maintenance, since under federal law any new revenues from the barge fuel tax can be used only for construction and not for O&M. Moreover, because funds raised by the barge fuel tax for capital projects must be matched by the federal government, O&M competes directly with construction for federal general revenue funds. Without a new funding strategy that prioritizes O&M, maintenance may be deferred until it reaches $20 million (the point at which it becomes classified as a capital expenditure), which would result in further deterioration and in a less cost-effective and less reliable system.

USACE has missions and management responsibilities that extend beyond providing for commercial navigation. With the authorization of Congress, USACE, under its Civil Works Program headed by the Assistant Secretary for Civil Works, plans, constructs, operates, and maintains the following: lock and dam infrastructure for commercial shipping; channel depths required for ports and harbors; dams, levees, and coastal barriers for flood risk management; and hydropower generation facilities. Other USACE responsibilities include maintenance of water supply infrastructure (municipal water and wastewater facilitates) and provision of waterborne recreation (i.e., boating). For the most part, these missions are independent of one another, since most projects are authorized for a single purpose. However, for many navigation projects, the availability of pools behind dams has allowed others to benefit from water supply for municipal, industrial, and farming purposes and for recreation. Any decisions about funding for navigation will need to consider the implications for this broader range of beneficiaries.

CONCLUSIONS

The following considerations warrant particular attention in decisions about funding for the inland waterways system.

  1. The Inland Waterways System Is a Small but Important Component of the National Freight System

The role of the inland waterways system in national freight transportation has changed significantly since the system was built to promote the early economic development of the nation. Today barges carry a relatively small but steady portion of freight, mainly bulk commodities that include in rough order of importance coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, crude materials, manufactured goods, and manufactured equipment. Annual trends in inland waterways shipments show that freight traffic is static or declining. Overall demand for the inland waterways system is static, whereas demand for the rail and truck modes is growing. In recent years, the inland waterways system has transported 6 to 7 percent of all domestic cargo (measured in ton-miles). The truck mode has carried the greatest share of freight, followed by rail, pipeline, and water.

  1. The Most Critical Need for the Inland Waterways System Is a Sustainable and Well-Executed Plan for Maintaining System Reliability and Performance That Ensures Efficient Use of Limited Navigation Resources Lost transportation

The time due to delays and lock unavailability (outages) is a cost to shippers and an important consideration in deciding on future investments. System-wide, about 80 percent of lost transportation time is attributable to delays. On average, 49 percent of tows in 2013 were delayed across the 10 highest-tonnage locks, with an average length of tow delay of 3.8 hours. While some delay is expected for routine maintenance, weather, accidents, and other reasons, lost transportation hours (delays and unavailabilities) can be affected by maintenance outages related to decreased reliability of aging machinery or infrastructure. Lost transportation hours also can be affected by capacity limitations, which may be intermittent or seasonal. About 12 percent of lost time on the inland waterways system is due to scheduled closures and about 8 percent is due to unscheduled closures. Thus, 20 percent of lost transportation time could be addressed with more targeted O&M resources. Directing O&M resources toward major facilities with frequent lockages and high volumes and where the lost time due to delay is significantly higher than the river average could improve navigation performance. Data are not available on the reasons for delay. Delays might be attributable to intermittent or seasonal peaks in volume due to weather, harvest, undercapacity, or other causes. Most lost time due to delay is at locks with periods of high demand often related to peaks in seasonal shipping, mainly for agricultural exports.

Furthermore, the inland waterways cover a vast geographic area, but the freight flows are highly concentrated. Seventy-six percent of barge cargo (in ton-miles) moves on just 22% of the 36,000 inland waterway miles. About 50 percent of the inland waterway ton-miles moves on six major corridors—the Upper Mississippi River, the Illinois River, the Ohio River, the Lower Mississippi River, the Columbia River system, and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway—which represent 16 percent of the total waterway miles. Some inland waterway segments have minimal or no freight traffic. The nation needs a funding strategy that targets funds to waterway segments and facilities essential to freight transportation and away from places that are not as important. This “triage” is already occurring in USACE’s budgeting process.

  1. More Reliance on a User-Pays Approach to Funding the Commercial Navigation System Is Feasible and Could Generate New Revenues for Maintenance While Promoting Economic Efficiency

In a climate of constrained federal funds, and with O&M becoming a greater part of the inland navigation budget, it is reasonable to examine whether beneficiaries could help pay for the system to increase revenues for the system and improve economic efficiency. Indeed, Congress, in the 2014 Water Resources Reform and Development Act (Section 2004, Inland Waterways Revenue Studies), called for a study of whether and how the various beneficiaries of the waterways might be charged. Federal general revenues presently cover most of the cost of the inland waterways system. Commercial navigation users, the primary identifiable beneficiaries of the system, pay a share of the construction costs through a barge fuel tax, but none of the costs of O&M.

A system more reliant on user payments would provide needed revenue for maintenance and promote economic efficiency. It also would be more consistent with the federal posture toward other freight transportation modes. Setting user charges to move the inland waterways system closer to economic efficiency would provide for more adequate maintenance for the important parts of the system and contribute to a more efficient national freight transportation system. Economic efficiency is promoted when user charges are first used to recover the O&M costs of the inland waterways and when user fees relate directly to the service provided. In the long run, user payments structured properly to include O&M and depreciation could also provide enough revenue to replace components of the system as they wear out. User charges for the inland waterways system can take the form of a dedicated tax such as the current fuel tax, a user fee, or some combination. The fuel tax can be an important source of revenue, but revenue potential alone is not sufficient for judging a funding strategy. User fees (segment- or facility-specific) instead of or in addition to the fuel tax are an option to consider as part of a comprehensive funding approach. Criteria for choosing among the user payment options include the following: promotion of efficient use of waterway resources, distribution of burden, ease of administration, promotion of user support for cost-effective expenditures, and requirements for congressional authorization. No single payment alternative offers a perfect choice; for example, the preferred option for achieving a policy goal may combine an increase in the barge fuel tax with other user fees.

To gain support from commercial navigation users, any additional revenues from users would be dedicated to the inland waterways system to ensure a source of funds for meeting system priorities and to respond to concerns of users that new payments intended for navigation could be reappropriated for other purposes. A revolving trust fund for maintenance would help ensure that all new funds collected are dedicated to inland navigation. Rules and conditions for managing the fund would be set by Congress if such a fund were authorized. The fund would be administered by USACE, and the Inland Waterways Users Board’s advisory role, which is currently limited to capital spending for construction, could be broadened to include spending for O&M and repairs. Amounts from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund are disbursed through congressional appropriations under current practice, which can result in delays in funding and deferred maintenance with increased costs. Direct administration of the trust fund would allow the spending of O&M funds as needed to provide reliable freight service and avoid the increased costs associated with deferred maintenance.

Because of constraints on its budget, USACE has already begun identifying waterways and facilities where commercial navigation is essential to national freight transportation or where significant commercial traffic continues. A policy and a process for identifying the components of the system essential for freight transportation are needed. A path to removing the cost of parts of the system not essential for freight service presently charged to the federal inland navigation budget may further the prospect of shifting to a user-based funding approach for commercial navigation service. Alternative plans and potential funding mechanisms are available for segments and facilities that are deemed not essential to freight transportation but that may provide other benefits.

Deciding the amount beneficiaries would need to pay for the commercial navigation system and how to allocate the costs among beneficiaries would be complex tasks. The economic value of parts of the system to commercial navigation beneficiaries would need to be identified, and a systemwide assessment of the assets required to achieve a reliable level of freight service would need to be made (see next conclusion).

  1. Asset Management Can Help Prioritize Maintenance and Ascertain the Level of Funding Required for the System

Regardless of who pays for the system, a standard process for prioritizing spending of available funds is needed. The capital projects backlog is not a reliable indicator of the amount of funding required for the system. A modest amount of the backlog is for navigation projects. A portion of the navigation backlog includes major rehabilitation to maintain the system, but it does not include O&M. Furthermore, the navigation backlog may include projects that are a lower priority for spending. Congress has long authorized and appropriated USACE capital projects on a project-by-project basis. A benefit–cost analysis prepared by USACE is the primary source of technical information that Congress uses during the authorizations process in deciding when spending is justified for capital projects. While benefit–cost analyses have been used for determining whether a project meets a minimum threshold for funding, they have not been used to rank projects, and the result has been far more projects being authorized than can be afforded within the constraints of the budget. A method for prioritizing projects on the basis of the service needs of the system would be more useful than an attempt to estimate and seek funding for the existing backlog.

The advanced age of locks is often used to communicate funding needs for the inland waterways system. Age, however, is not a good indicator of lock condition. A substantial number of locks have been rehabilitated, which would be expected to restore performance to its original condition if not better.

A general framework of locks and their performance as measured by delay experienced by system users. Dating the age of assets from the time of the last major rehabilitation, as is done for highway infrastructure such as bridges, would be more accurate. USACE does not publish consistent records of rehabilitation dates for its various lock and dam assets, however. Making such information available to policy makers, alongside information about the reliability and performance of the system, could improve the efficient allocation of available resources.

An asset management program focused on economic efficiency, fully implemented and linked to the budgeting process, would prioritize maintenance spending and ascertain the funding levels required for reliable freight service. A well-executed program of asset management would promote rational and data-driven investment decisions based on system needs and minimize the broader influences that affect the budgeting process. USACE has adopted a generally appropriate framework for asset management that is mostly consistent with the economically efficient asset management (EEAM) concept described in Chapter 4, but it is not yet fully developed or deployed across USACE districts. The framework recognizes the importance of economic consequences for strategic investment instead of assuming that all navigation infrastructure needs to be maintained at its original condition. The approach appropriately includes assessment of three main elements that follow from EEAM: the probability of failure of the infrastructure; infrastructure usage (demand), defined as whether the waterway has low, moderate, or high levels of freight traffic; and the economic consequences of failure to shippers and carriers.

Whereas maintenance is a priority for the system, decisions about whether to invest in construction for capacity expansion at key bottlenecks and how to prioritize these investments against other investments for the system will continue to arise. Decisions about whether investments in construction to expand capacity at the corridor level are economically justified would require more information about delays and the ability of nonstructural alternatives or smaller-scale structural improvements (to increase processing time) to achieve the desired level of service. Collection of data and development of performance metrics would enhance understanding of whether delay problems could be most efficiently addressed by more targeted O&M, traffic management, capacity enhancement, or some combination of these. Once an asset management approach was fully developed and applied, it could be used to prioritize allocation of resources for O&M and indicate areas where major rehabilitation or other capital spending should be considered.

Miscellaneous

Total barge  %
coal 182.7 24.77
petroleum and petroleum products 252.4 34.22
chemicals 70.4 9.54
crude materials 111.5 15.12
primary manufactured goods 31 4.20
food and farm products 76.1 10.32
all manufactured equipment 12.2 1.65
other 1.3 0.18
737.6

Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River System: A Multiple-Purpose River System Not Reflecting Today’s Economic and Environmental Values

The Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint Rivers basin originates in northeast Georgia, crosses the state boundary into central Alabama, and then follows the Alabama state line south until it terminates in Apalachicola Bay, Florida. The basin covers 50 counties in Georgia, 10 in Alabama, and eight in Florida. Extending a distance of approximately 385 miles, the basin drains 19,600 square miles. The Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River Waterway consists of a channel 9 feet deep and 100 feet wide from the mouth of the Apalachicola River to the head of navigation at Columbus, Georgia, for the Chattahoochee River and at Bainbridge, Georgia, for the Flint River. The total waterway distance is 290 miles, with a lift of 190 feet accomplished by three locks and dams. Provision of navigation services is just one of several purposes for which the system’s operations are authorized; others are water supply, flood control, hydropower generation, recreation, and management of water releases for several nonfederal power generation dams. Commercial use of the waterway has declined steadily over time and now is minimal, mainly haulage of sand and gravel. According to the Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center, no commercial traffic occurred over the 5 years from 2008 to 2012. Nevertheless, channel maintenance of the lower reaches of the waterway requires dredging and clearing, which has severe adverse impacts on the ecological health of Apalachicola Bay, one of the most economically productive water bodies in the United States. While these efforts have been strongly opposed by the state of Florida through regulatory and other measures such as not providing dredged material disposal areas, USACE has found ways to provide navigation services. In addition to the financial outlays by the federal government for navigation, operation of the upstream reservoirs to provide navigation “windows” uses releases of water that are highly valued by other users, including municipalities and lake recreationists. Because the cost of O&M assigned to navigation is borne by federal taxpayers, opposition to continued provision of navigation services comes largely from the environmental organizations and Florida. Furthermore, the lack of navigation benefits is only a small issue in the conflicts over the operation of this major multiple-purpose reservoir system. Growing demands for municipal water supply in Georgia have led to “water wars” among the states for decades, which have not been successfully addressed administratively by USACE or by Congress.

References

Ashby, M.F. 2015. Materials and sustainable development, table A.14. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.

De Decker, K. 2018. Could We Dredge the Netherlands Without Fossil Fuels? lowtechmagazine.com

Smil, V. 2013. Prime movers of globalization. The history and impact of diesel engines and gas turbines. Cambridge: The MIT press.

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Book review of “Halfway Home”. What happens after jail

Preface.  This book is about what happens to released prisoners. Many of the homeless you see on the street were prisoners who are on the street because landlords won’t rent to them, and their family won’t let them move in since landlords won’t hesitate to evict them as well (do read “Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City” — far more people are thrown out on the street with all their belongings than you ever imagined — this is one messed up nation to treat people so brutally).  Employers usually won’t hire felons either, so they have no money to pay rent with.  And even the slightest infractions can send someone on parole or probation back to jail.  These are some of my kindle notes. I left most of the heartbreaking stories out.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Miller RJ (2021) Halfway Home: Race, Punishment, and the Afterlife of Mass Incarceration. Little, Brown & Company.

The word justice suggests some harm repaired or some truth revealed, but 95% of all court cases end in a plea deal after a person has spent anywhere from several weeks to several years in a cage. Of the 2.3 million people who are incarcerated, 40% are black, 84% are poor, and half have no income at all. The 2,626 people who have been exonerated since 1989 spent an average of nine years in prison for crimes they did not commit. Nearly half are black, and almost all of them are poor. It is clear to anyone paying attention that the legal system does not administer anything resembling justice but instead manages the nation’s problematic populations.

To fully understand mass incarceration, we must go to the neighborhoods that hemmed them in long before they occupied cages, the same places that serve as their confines for years after they return.

We must wait with them for a space to open in the halfway house or in the shelter, because the laws and policies that the U.S. government has enacted ensure there is no place for them to go. We must sit in the homes of the parents, lovers, and children who share their burdens.

The story of mass incarceration in America is bigger than American jails and prisons, even with their two million captives. And it’s bigger than probation and parole, even with the five million people held in the prison of their homes through ankle bracelets, weekly drug tests, and GPS technology. This is because mass incarceration has an afterlife, and that afterlife is a supervised society—a hidden social world and an alternate legal reality. The prison lives on through the people who’ve been convicted long after they complete their sentences, and it lives on through the grandmothers, lovers, and children forced to share their burdens because they are never really allowed to pay their so-called debt to society.

Today, 19.6 million people live with a felony record, four times the size of the population on probation and parole, and ten times the size of the American prison census. Almost all of these people lived in dire poverty before they entered a cage, and they return to these same conditions on the day of their release. One-third are black; one in three currently living black American men have felony records. And while the number of black women held behind bars is eight times higher today than it was in 1980, the reach of the carceral state does not stop at the threshold of the black family.

There are 45,000 federal and state laws regulate the lives of the accused. They dictate where and with whom they may live and what they may do with their days. The greatest harms are concentrated at the state level, reaching into their neighborhoods. In Michigan, there are 789 of these laws.

In most states, this means that people with criminal records may not hold public office or live in public housing. They can be fired from their jobs on the whim of their employers or have their applications for apartments denied, even when they have the jobs, the credit scores, and the references to qualify otherwise. In some states, they may not be allowed to vote. With few places to work or live and fewer ways to change the circumstances they face, they still may not qualify for food stamps or student loans to go back to school and improve their living conditions. They may have to give up their parental rights. They certainly may not adopt children or even live in a home with a foster child.

They may not be able to leave the country, and, for some crimes, they can’t even leave the state. It doesn’t matter that they’ve finished probation or that their incarceration was decades ago. They can still be rejected, and there’s nothing that anyone can do.

Over half of the 35,000 people released from Illinois prisons annually return to Chicago, and half of them, about 9,000 people, to just six of the city’s poorest neighborhoods. All six areas have crime, arrest, and unemployment rates triple the national average, with black Americans accounting for 90% of their residents, save one neighborhood that is over 90% black and Latinx.

No other marginalized group—not poor black people without criminal records, not mothers on welfare, not even undocumented immigrants—experience this profound level of legal exclusion. No other group shoulders the burdens of social policy in quite the same way.

The supervised society has produced a new form of citizenship through practices of punishment and exclusion that target our nation’s poorest families. We’ve failed to see, or perhaps we’ve ignored, how the ways we’ve chosen to punish the poor extend far beyond the prison’s walls and start long before an arrest occurs. This, too, is part of the afterlife of mass incarceration

Today, 100,000 men, women, and teenagers, nearly half of whom are awaiting their trials, circulate between the Cook County Jail and some poor black neighborhood on the South Side or West Side of Chicago each year.

Long lines of visitors snake around corners outside the entrances to each of the main dormitories. Once visitors get inside the first gate, longer lines mark the pilgrimage of overworked public defenders, parents and grandparents, social workers, wives, husbands, and partners, some with strollers, others holding the hands of their little ones, huddled together under the elements.  One line is for visitation, another is to post bail, a third is to retrieve property.

When “feeding time” is announced, some man in oversize khakis hauling an industrial-strength black garbage bag filled with bologna or ham sandwiches on white bread, sometimes with oranges and cartons of milk, makes his way to the front of the wing to pass out his goods.

In the early 1980s, my grandmother, whom we called Ma Ma (pronounced “Mah-Ma”), took me to court with my two brothers, Joseph and Jeremiah. Our mother had left us at a police station. This was right before the crack era but after Reagan made a scandal out of the “welfare queen.” The police station was one of the few places that a poor, drug-addicted, or mentally ill woman could leave the children she couldn’t raise, or simply did not want to raise, without risking a charge of child neglect.

Some judge or underpaid hearing officer got to decide whether or not my family stayed together or if my brothers and I would be sent back to the foster homes where the other kids did not know us, where we could not play with the toys, where as a toddler I once sat in shit for an entire day. As we grew up, my brothers and I got into trouble. We got into fights and dropped out of school. My brothers cycled between different kinds of confinement—group homes and foster care and jails and prison cells and treatment facilities and electronic monitors. At various points in our lives we’ve all slept on park benches or stayed in shelters and lived in neighborhoods that none of us felt were safe.

On a hearing officer’s whim, I was spared the worst parts of the system and left in the care of my grandmother. I’m fortunate never to have done time. My brothers weren’t so lucky.

The plea deal is a perverse kind of a confession. It is an abdication of the inquisitorial process. Fact-finding is unnecessary. No deep truths are revealed through plea deals. They are negotiations between a prosecutor with the power of incarceration and death at his or her disposal, whether or not there is evidence, and a defendant who just wants to go home.

The people who take these pleas are typically stuck in cells and live under the threat of long prison sentences. They’ve been separated from their families. They confess guilt to a judge and to their accusers in open court, giving up their right to a trial that they likely couldn’t afford. They do this whether or not they believe that they are guilty because copping a plea is the fastest way to get home, but almost everyone I met who took a plea regretted it. You cannot undo a guilty plea.

Once it’s entered, the defendant gives up the right to an appeal. And you can never do enough to erase it. A conviction follows you through news clippings, mug-shot databases, and cheap electronic background checks easily accessible to employers, landlords, licensing officials, and anyone with thirty dollars, a credit card, and enough curiosity to look. There are whole industries built around disseminating criminal records and storing files in digital databases. Sometimes, companies make records publicly available and charge a fee to take them down. Most times, they compile the data and charge a fee for people who want to use the information to investigate others. And while a plea deal saved Ronald’s mother from a lifetime of incarceration, this was an atypical outcome.

I launched the Detroit Reentry Study, a research project that would follow 90 newly released prisoners for two years. I would meet them on the day of their release from jails, prisons, and police lockup facilities nearby and observe them as they tried to put their lives back together. We followed men and women as they looked for work or places to live and as they did their best to reconnect with their families. Some had been locked up for just a few days; others had been incarcerated for decades.

My brother Jeremiah was pulled over one day, and the officers found he was driving without a license; it had been suspended after his last DUI. When they ran his name, they saw he had an open warrant in Michigan. They took him into custody. He was processed, shackled, and put on a transport van to Ann Arbor, where he would face his day in court. He told me the trip took three days even though Chicago to Ann Arbor is only a 4.5 hour drive, five hours if you stop for coffee and bathroom breaks. The van, which was privately owned, took a detour to the East Coast to pick up additional passengers. After three days in a van and three days in jail, Jeremiah was released on his own recognizance. A judge ordered him to check in with a probation officer and submit to weekly drug tests, even though he had not (yet) been convicted of a crime. It didn’t matter that he had a wife and a job back in Chicago. He could not leave Michigan. He could not go back to my home, which was, after all, the scene of the crime. It would have been hard for me to let him stay anyway.

While he awaited trial, no one in liberal Ann Arbor would hire him. He did not have an address, which made it nearly impossible for him to find steady work, and he knew landlords rejected applicants with records. With no job, he couldn’t have afforded an apartment anyway. Jeremiah couch-surfed with people he barely knew or slept in a moving truck. He eventually found a community—a local priest allowed the homeless to erect a tent city in the church parking lot, and he slept outside on the asphalt on a makeshift cot.

He went home a free man with a charge that he could probably explain if he was asked about it in an interview, but he had a conviction. He would be considered a “habitual offender” should he ever be arrested again, and “habitual offenders” got “sentence enhancements”—legalese that meant a judge could give a longer sentence. I turned to his attorney and asked, “What if we fought and lost?” He said that if Jeremiah was convicted, he would do 10-15 years. Plus, the judge could add an additional 10-15 years because he was a “repeat offender.” Jeremiah had been caught shoplifting a cart full of goods worth more than 500 dollars from a Target in Ohio. He had been convicted of grand larceny, making him a “habitual offender.

Timothy’s story was like that of so many other people I’d interviewed. I would ask, “How old were you when you were first arrested?” They would tell me 10 or 12 or 16. I would ask, “How many times?” They would say 10 or 15 or sometimes laugh and say something like “Shit, too many times to count.” Chicago, Detroit, New York, LA, Ann Arbor or Ypsilanti, Michigan, even Harvey, Illinois. It didn’t matter what city. Boys got in trouble. Boys got into fights. Boys cut class. Boys got arrested. And their trials were so similar: A boy or his mother or his brother or his friend was assaulted. The police were called, and they either came too late or didn’t come at all. In Detroit, in 2013 the average response time for a 911 call was 58 minutes, and that was for “high-priority calls” like robberies, sexual assault, or active shooters. And the homicide clearance rate in Chicago in 2017 was just 17%. This meant that 83% of the city’s murderers were never brought to “justice.” Why would anyone call the police? The girls’ stories were similar, but there were important distinctions. They were 16 on average when they were first arrested. Almost all of them had children. They leaned on their mothers or sisters or friends when they were locked up, rarely on their lovers. Almost all of them had been sexually assaulted—by babysitters, by parents, by boyfriends, by strangers. (Some of the boys were sexually assaulted too, but it took many, many interviews and sometimes a number of years before they shared those stories with me.) New York City had something like 17,000 untested rape kits; Detroit and Chicago and every other major city in the country were about the same.

The people I met told me without fail that the police didn’t come when they needed them, but they were there when they smoked a joint or sold a few rocks or turned a trick to get out of a bad situation.

I’ve sat across many tables from many different people, sometimes when they were in prison, most times after they were released. Most had been locked away for years. We’d have coffee or break bread or share a bench during cigarette breaks at their AA meetings or their anger-management sessions. I’d meet them at the unemployment office or a library or when they filled out applications for public aid. I’d go to their homes and sit with their families, doing my best to learn what it was like to live in a supervised society. I spent hours talking with some and years talking with others. It didn’t matter if they were convicted of killing a man or robbing a store or getting high. There was a pattern: An arrest. A series of incarcerations. A sense of guilt. A feeling of shame. A struggle to find their way.

The outcomes were almost always the same. Very few people landed jobs. Fewer still could rent apartments. They moved from couch to couch as their lovers and family members grew exhausted caring for able-bodied adults who could not find their way.

The psychologist Geraldine Downey studies the weight of rejection in people’s lives. She studies how the anticipation of rejection affects psychological and physical health.  In adults, it leads to anxiety and depression and a sense of dissatisfaction with life and intimate partners. No wonder so many relationships dissolve when a lover comes home from prison; no wonder so many people struggle to get their footing after hearing No dozens of times.

Locked out of the political and economic life of the city, formerly incarcerated people must depend on the mercy of others, although they rarely find it. They look for housing, but options are scarce or unaffordable. Social-service agencies refuse to help them or have long waiting lists.

Jimmy (one of the 90 people the author interviewed for this book)

He had just come from a meeting with his parole officer. When I asked how it went, he whipped out a photocopy listing his “conditions of release.” He could not cross state lines without the court’s permission. He could not possess a firearm. He could not return to or be near the vicinity of his last arrest. He could not “associate with known offenders.” That is, he could not live or work with anyone who had a criminal record, and he could not spend time with anyone on probation or parole. He could not drink alcohol or use “any controlled substance.

The restrictions were straightforward, but the sheet also listed tasks he was required to accomplish. He had to report to his parole officer once a week to submit a urine sample for drug testing, which he was expected to pay for—ten dollars for every test. He had to complete a job-skills training program at the Michigan Works! Association, a workforce-development agency. He had to attend Narcotics Anonymous meetings twice a week. He had to attend all other “physical or mental health treatment” the courts or his parole officer deemed necessary. He had to search for employment. He was on an electronic monitor, his whereabouts tracked through an ankle bracelet and GPS satellite technology, so he had to do all of this between 8:00 a.m. and 3:00 p.m. each day. If he violated any of these conditions, he could be sent back to prison.

The parole officer sent Jimmy to a job agency that was closed. That was not unusual; these kinds of places folded all the time. But it had taken Jimmy an hour to get to me on Detroit’s notoriously unpredictable transit system, and we’d still ended up walking a mile. I wondered if there was somewhere else we could go, somewhere closer to Midtown. But that would just make it harder for Jimmy to get there when the bus pass I’d given him eventually expired. Besides, there was no phone number on the printout for the agencies we might go to, and in any case, Jimmy’s phone had run out of minutes. There was no way to know which place would be open.

If the workforce-development center had been open, he could have gotten a bus card for the month from a case manager. Without a bus card, Jimmy would have to walk nine miles to the other center. He would have to walk to his court-ordered AA meetings and he would have to walk to the parole office to give his weekly drop. He told me he could be sent back to prison for missing any of these appointments, and he was right.

We both knew men who had been “flopped” for similar reasons. Nearly a quarter of all prison admissions the previous year were for parole violations like these, and the price of violation was steep. Parolees who got flopped had to finish their sentences, and Jimmy had eighteen months left on his. Even if his PO didn’t think Jimmy’s violation was serious enough to warrant prison, he could be held for ninety days in the “eye-drop” unit at the detention center.

Jimmy had been laid down many times. He did seventy-seven days at a work camp for stealing something from a garage with a partially open door. He did thirty days in the county jail for “pissing hot”—failing a drug test—and another thirty days at the eye drop for missing his very next appointment.

Missing an appointment because he overslept or not going to a treatment group because he couldn’t borrow bus fare—could cost this man his freedom.

We walked to the counter together to sign Jimmy up for a session. The receptionist told us that all the classes were full. She instructed Jimmy to put his name on the waiting list and to come back the next week because a parolee might fail to show. They did not give out bus cards to people who were not yet in the program, and they could not guarantee him a spot.

In that moment, I understood why Jimmy worked so hard to make sure that I was comfortable. He lived in an economy of favors. With so many rules to follow and so much risk involved—one mistake could cost him his freedom—he needed favors from people he barely knew to meet his basic needs. Life for Jimmy was so chaotic in part because he was so often rejected.

He moved from one catastrophe to the next. There was no way for him to anticipate that he would need a ride from me, but he had to stay in my good graces just in case he needed me. In the end, my help didn’t matter. The agency had no room for Jimmy, and it would make no room for him, even though he’d spent a good part of the day trying to get there.

Jimmy turned to his girlfriend for a place to stay each time he was released. And she would always help him, letting him sleep on her couch or giving him a hot meal or cash when she could afford it. But her landlord started asking questions. He told her he saw Jimmy come and go at night. He didn’t want trouble in his building. And he knew, like everyone else, that Jimmy had been to prison. He told Ruth that he liked her, but if Jimmy moved back in, he would be forced to put her out.

***

Of the 250 dollars I sent my brother in prison, 100 dollars was applied to fees he owned — a 400-dollar extradition fee and a 68-dollar fee for the “state minimum costs” to record his felony conviction.  We were both surprised to learn that half of everything he received over 50 dollars in a 30-day period would be applied to pay down his legal debt. He owed thousands of dollars. He was charged $650 for the privilege of being represented by a public defender he’d met just once, on the day of his hearing, and $1611 for “court costs.” Judges, stenographers, bailiffs, and clerks had to be paid.

One in three black American men lives with a felony record and where almost nothing they can do will save their children from meeting the same end.

A million families live this way: Sending money they can’t afford. Making court dates they don’t have time for. Driving five hours only to be turned away because there’s been a lockdown at the facility or their names weren’t on some registry or they showed up on the wrong day or someone’s dress wasn’t quite long enough.

Over half of all Americans, including nearly two-thirds of all black people in this country, have a family member who has been to prison.

“At the halfway house,” Yvette told me, “my roommate was using and selling drugs and boosting.” Her roommate was supporting a heroin habit by stealing clothes from local department stores and selling them on the street. “Of course she gave me some,” Yvette said, “which started me back up, you know.” Yvette was using again just a few days after her release, a parole violation for sure. She knew she would give a dirty drop. She knew she was headed back to prison.

Yvette and a few girlfriends stuck together in those early days, sleeping on couches and alternating nights at some “guy’s house” that one of them was “talking to.” Nights on the street. Nights in dope houses. Nights in the beds of people they didn’t know very well. Yvette lived like this for a year.

Just about every woman I talked with had been sexually assaulted. An uncle. A boyfriend. A parent. A half sister’s husband. One in six women nationally and a staggering 86% of all incarcerated women are survivors of sexual assault; 75% were abused at home, and over half were abused as children.

Rich kids didn’t get arrested; people like Yvette did in the early 1970s. With just 300,000 people in cages and a population that exceeded 200,000,000, the U.S. incarceration rate was relatively low. Mass incarceration at the scale and concentration that we know it today was in its nascent stages.  She had seen so many people who were released come back to prison in just a few months. A new prostitution charge. A parole violation—pissing hot or missing appointments or getting into a fight with a boyfriend.

Her boss understood but said there was little he could do. An employer could be sued for having a felon on the payroll. A decade free and a decade sober. A volunteer. A hard worker. A good daughter and wife, and soon to be a mother. In the end, none of that mattered.

It was 1991. Mass incarceration had reached its midpoint, with 1.2 million people held in American jails and prisons.

Changes in liability law, beginning in the 1980s, started in housing. Tenants sued negligent landlords when they were robbed or mugged in their buildings. The courts sided with the renters, finding that crime prevention was part of every landlord’s responsibility. More lawsuits followed. Landlords were fined under nuisance ordinances for letting their buildings fall into disrepair, for harboring drug users and gang activity, and for leasing apartments to felons. Almost overnight, property owners became part of the crime-fighting machine.

They responded to this new responsibility by evicting tenants with even decades-old criminal records, and denying leases to people facing criminal allegations.

The verdict was in on prisoner rehabilitation—much of the public and most policy makers believed it simply did not work. Crime could not be treated, the public thought, because criminals were born, not made. A suite of new laws provided a way to avoid the risks posed by “criminals” without having to deter crime. Employers could simply refuse to hire “ex-cons” or fire them once they learned of their convictions.

Employment discrimination was illegal. Were Yvette fired because she was black or because she was a woman, she could have filed a lawsuit against her employer. But she was fired because of her record, and there was nothing that she could do. If you are labeled criminal in this country, your life will never be the same.

MASS INCARCERATION AND CHILDREN

On any given day, there are 48,000 incarcerated children living in the United States; 17,000 are in juvenile detention; 11,000 are in “long-term secure facilities,” those training schools and reformatories that use work and school and moral teachings to turn bad boys and girls into good ones. Over 10,000 are in residential treatment for drugs or alcohol or a sex offense or for mental-health or behavioral problems, 3,400 are in group homes, and 4,500 children do time in an adult jail or prison despite what we know happens to children when we lock them away with adults.

Half of the nation’s prisoners have minor children. That’s a million parents locked up on any given day. That’s 2.7 million children who have a parent, at this very moment, sitting in a cage. Five million American children have lived this way, their parents experiencing their children’s first steps or their first words or their first real disappointments from a cell. A million fathers watch their kids “grow up through family pictures.

In the past decade and a half, 32,000 prisoners lost the right to raise their children although they were not charged with child abuse or neglect. And while nearly all of them were poor, and many were addicted, some five thousand had their parental rights revoked simply because they were incarcerated—as if their incarceration weren’t punishment enough.

Mothers are almost always the primary caregivers for their children, and incarcerated mothers were five times more likely to lose their rights than incarcerated fathers.

The child welfare system was in crisis. There were horror stories. Foster children were abused (there was a 50% increase in reported cases between 1985 and 1993) and neglected (there was a similar increase in reported cases of neglect during the same period). Because these children were hard to place, many never found a permanent home. Instead, they “aged out” of foster care as they became adults. And we know from studies of foster-care outcomes that these children had a terrible time. More than half dropped out of high school. Nearly half were arrested. Over half were unemployed. Nearly 40% became homeless. Some had children of their own much earlier than they’d expected. And many of their children ended up in foster care.

After 20 years and nearly one million adoptions, the act is vaunted as a success. But the act’s passage had deleterious consequences for the nation’s poorest families. As part of the streamlining process, the federal government set guidelines to terminate the rights of parents whose children had been in foster care for 15 of the previous 22 months. The average prison sentence in the United States is 2.6 years, over a year beyond the 15-month guideline.

They received letters in their cells telling them their rights had been taken away. Their children were adopted. The adoptions were closed. They could never contact their children again. The Department of Corrections has no legal obligation to take the parent to family court.

Judges set bail, or don’t, without thinking twice about the children

‘I was supposed to pick up my kids,’ the mom might say. ‘I got pulled over for a taillight, and when I didn’t show up, the school called [Child Protective Services].’

Black families are more likely than white ones to be reported to child welfare agencies. They are less likely to receive the services they need to keep their children out of foster care. Their children are more likely to be removed from their homes, and once removed, they receive services inferior to those offered to white families. This is despite the fact that black families are no more likely to abuse or neglect their children than white ones. Half of all foster children in New York State are black, and they are admitted into foster care at ten times the rate of white children.

“The parent is picked up,” Amanda said. “Jail. Bail. She can’t pay. It’s tricky because no one is really tracking this.

All the people I met doing research for this book were on their way somewhere when they were arrested: To work. To the grocery store. To visit a relative. To the hospital. One woman was arrested the day before her graduation from an alternative high school in Detroit. She got into a fight with a cheating boyfriend while getting her hair done at a beauty salon. The police were called. She had a Taser and a criminal history. She spent the next few months in jail.

Sixty percent will leave an American jail without ever being convicted of a crime, but almost all of these women will be separated from their children.

Congress passed the Housing Opportunity Extension Act of 1996. The act required public-housing agencies to evict tenants for “any criminal activity” that threatened the “health, safety or right to peaceful enjoyment” of any other resident. This included any crimes committed “on or off such premises” as well as crimes committed by “any member of the tenants’ household…any guest, or other person under the tenants’ control.” Put differently, tenants could be evicted for allowing someone with a criminal record to simply visit their home.

Thousands of families have been evicted, and thousands more live under the threat, for housing relatives with criminal records. Many can’t afford the risk, so they must turn their relatives away.

By 1998, almost every public-housing authority in the nation had taken up some version of the initiative, barring people with criminal records from the premises and evicting entire families who let formerly incarcerated loved ones sleep on their couches. Exclusion became official housing policy.

If a landlord has decent housing to provide, they probably won’t even rent to someone with a criminal record…But there are plenty of landlords who do, [and they] rent to people with extensive records or people [they know who are involved in] criminal activities…But often times those places aren’t fit for people to really live in. I had heard as much from dozens of previously incarcerated people, that it was nearly impossible for them to find a place to live regardless of their credit or income. And they told me the conditions in the apartments they found were unbearable. Vermin. Rusty water. Broken appliances. Lights and electric sockets that didn’t work. Some places were dangerous in other ways. They were next to crack houses, or they were in neighborhoods where the police rode through to make arrests but didn’t have a real presence otherwise. The schools were the worst in their districts. Nothing ever worked. The landlords abused their rights, and the tenants had little or no recourse.

With so much at risk, sometimes telling a mother to evict her child was the best legal advice she could give.

The people the government has incarcerated, cut off from their family and friends, are twice as likely to die from any cause than anyone else in this country. They are three times as likely to die from heart disease and four times as likely to die from cancer. They are most likely to die within the first few years of their release. If you consider death by drug overdose, incarcerated people are 129 times more likely to die within just two weeks of their release than members of the general population. For every year someone spends in prison, he loses two full years of life expectancy.

And the health care in prison is poor—when health care is provided at all. Most inmates have a history of drug addiction. Some have tuberculosis and hepatitis and HIV and all of the various illnesses that circulate in places like prisons.

Men in prison experience a kind of death. To be cut off from family for years—to be too far away for regular visits. To watch so many of your closest relationships fray and then dissolve. To see your children grow up through family pictures. To be hungry for days at a time because the food you eat is never enough, and there is nothing that you can do about it. To be isolated. To be in a place with thousands of men but to somehow feel alone. This is what it means to be socially dead. To be subjected to violence and humiliation. To be shackled, one to another, during daily routines, your ability to work and provide for yourself taken away. To move in a coffle down long hallways like animals for “feeding time” or “meds.” To be marched away from your lover and your children every time visitation ends. To be cut off from the human community or to have no community at all—at least, no community that might be valued by members of a free society.

Prisoners might haunt a neighborhood after release, unable to find work or secure a home, unable to participate in the politics of the city in the ways most people find meaningful. To have no say over where or how often you connect with people you love. To be made a “nonperson,” in the words of sociologist Orlando Patterson, who gave us the term social death. To be at once a part of the wider world, through labor or punishment or as a social problem of national concern, yet to be kept just outside of it.

A halfway house has a lot of rules

The halfway house was in a foreign land. Zo was nervous, but he had to go. It was a condition of his release. Zo knocked on the door wearing khakis, his prison-issued oversize button-down white short-sleeved shirt, and black plastic boots, the kind that gave most men blisters. The man who opened the door took Zo’s paperwork to another office, showed him his rack, and went over the rules: You can smoke outside. No drugs. No drinking. No guests. No pets. You must sign up for food stamps right away and turn over your Link Card (a debit card for food stamps issued by the State of Illinois) to the house manager; he would use it to buy groceries for Zo and the 15 other men who lived in the house. No food in the rooms. Get your own toiletries. Check in with your parole officer once a week. Stay sober. You have to leave each morning and piss in a cup when you return at night. Curfew is eight p.m. You have to get a job. The IDOC covered the first thirty days’ rent, but it was four hundred dollars a month after that. Rent must be paid on time. This was a halfway house (the kind of place my grandmother would have called a flophouse). There were no five-day eviction notices. You could be put out any day of the week for any reason.

The 30 days went by fast. Zo had lost most of his family connections. His mother was dead. His younger brothers were in no position to help. He had never been in a romantic relationship, at least nothing long term, so there was no warm bed to sleep in at night. He hadn’t been called for a job interview. Even if he found a job, he wouldn’t get a paycheck for at least two weeks, and it probably still wouldn’t cover the rent. Where would he get the 400 dollars? Zo faced eviction. He had been to many different kinds of prisons—to juvie, to jail, to penitentiaries downstate—but he had never been homeless. Worse still, homelessness was a violation of parole.

Nearly all day-labor agencies in the city were in Latino neighborhoods with high concentrations of immigrants, and many of Chicago’s restaurants, meatpacking floors, and waste-disposal and construction sites were staffed with undocumented workers. You can’t talk about day labor in Chicago without acknowledging that day-labor agencies seem to prefer to hire Latinos.

Reentry programs don’t seek to remove the barriers formerly incarcerated people face. They can’t. Criminal records are stored in electronic databases. Anyone with 30 dollars and a debit card can pull them up. Some are even free to the public. In Chicago, there are over 700 policies that keep people with criminal records unemployed. More than 50 bar them from housing. There’s very little social-service agencies can do.

In criminal justice parlance, the reentry program tries to make “criminals” into “productive citizens.” They can’t change the reality these people face, so they try to change how the people who face those realities see, understand, and respond to them.

The focus on employability comes out of efforts by policy makers to enhance what economists call “human capital”—the skills, competencies, and qualities associated with a healthy workforce. Human capital has two sides. One has to do with the education and training an employee uses to complete a task. The other has to do with “noncognitive skills,” attributes like mental toughness, trustworthiness, and grit. To reduce the poverty and address the cycles of unemployment that formerly incarcerated people face, policy makers seek to enhance their personal qualities, making them more desirable job candidates.

The goals of the Second Chance Act couldn’t have been stated any more clearly: 165 million dollars to teach men how to shake hands and tie ties, but nothing to help secure their long-term employment. There was funding for case managers who might find a man or a woman just released from a cage a place to live, but there was no money allotted for affordable housing.

The problem of reentry is not simply a problem of behavior. There are rules that formerly incarcerated people must follow that other people just don’t have to. There are laws that regulate their lives that do not apply to anyone else, that puts them in a zoo whether they deserved to be or not.

There is no question about the need for reentry programs. They relieve real human suffering in real time. But the problem of mass incarceration is ultimately a problem of citizenship. As long as formerly incarcerated people are legally excluded from the labor and housing markets, investing in their human capital won’t do much to improve their lives. Reentry organizations can’t erase their records or change their social situations.

If you live with someone on parole, you are subject to the things that person is subject to—random checks at ungodly hours, phone calls, the threat of a raid. This was not only a point of discomfort. There were videos floating around the internet of police shooting the wrong person or raiding the wrong house or killing black people every day going about their normal routines.

If I allowed my brother Jeremiah to live with me, my family could be evicted. Renting the unit from my homeowner friend was the only real option.  I didn’t know it then, because I didn’t have the words, but I was drawn into the economy of favors. I had to overlook my friend renting the basement to that handyman; there was nowhere else I could turn for help. I had to leverage my reputation to get the parole board to believe in the plan or Jeremiah would spend more time in prison. I had to indulge the parole officer, sitting through ridicule, so that he would approve the placement. All of these arrangements could dissolve on a whim. Any of the people I turned to for help could have said no without so much as an explanation.

After a three-hour visit, and after I’d endured bad jokes and threats for more time than I spend with most people, the officer denied Jeremiah the placement I’d found him. I called the officer to find out why. I got his voice mail. He replied with a text message a few days later. The unit had dogs, he texted. Not allowed by section 12 of Illinois Criminal Statute 720: Possession of unsterilized or vicious dogs by felons prohibited.

I discussed how demands that can’t be legally required of others, like peeing in a cup or attending an anger-management class, can be required of you. I discussed how the laws and policies that made you dependent on others also made you among the least desirable candidates for help, that the people you turned to in your time of need could be punished if they helped you.

And I talked about what it meant for everyday activities that were legal for everyone else, like drinking or crossing state lines or spending time with whomever you wanted, to be illegal for you.  I called this “carceral citizenship” and said the emergence of an economy of favors changed how people relate to one another in this new supervised society. It introduced a new power dynamic. Relationships, for formerly incarcerated people, now began from a position of need. You need the apartment or the job with the boss who mistreats you or the relationship with the lover you no longer care for because you have nowhere else to go.

I asked about Jeremiah’s curfew. The agent said on normal days he would need to be back by three o’clock, but he would let him stay out today until six since I had driven all the way from Chicago.  Then the agent showed me his computer screen. Three people would be monitoring Jeremiah’s movements. The agent would be watching, someone from MDOC headquarters in Lansing would be watching through a GPS satellite, and someone from the private company that MDOC contracted to provide the satellite images would be watching. “We can even tell which direction he’s facing in the car”.

Jeremiah had a good relationship with the job coordinator at a trucking company. They found him a job right away, but then I got a call from him one night. He told me he couldn’t take the job as a driver because felons couldn’t cross state lines. Even if he got a job as a local driver, he had a curfew and his travel had to be approved. There was no way the parole supervisor would sign off on the new job, even if his parole agent went to bat for him. I’d worried about this when he signed up for the program, but if they knew this would be a problem, why did they send him to truck-driving school? What did they think would happen? A man who had been homeless. A man who just got out of prison. A man who would have a terrible time finding work otherwise. What good would a truck driver’s license do?

The agent found him a job working the second shift at a tortilla factory, but he hated every minute of every day. He was fired a few weeks later. The job was too demanding. “They changed my shift, and I couldn’t keep up,” he said. This too is the afterlife of mass incarceration—to be separated from your hopes and any real idea of freedom. Millions of people are unable to decide for themselves where they will work or live or spend time. Millions more can’t find a job or housing at all.

He had already been re-arrested four times. Once he’d stayed in jail for three days. Twice for ten. Once for 30. This time he was being sent to a 90-day residential drug-treatment program in a small town in western Michigan. They didn’t tell him it was 90 days. They never told him how long he would have to stay. And he didn’t know this at the time either, but his two-year parole would start all over when he was eventually released. Jeremiah was arrested twice more over the next four months. He was sent to another drug-treatment program, this time in Detroit. He did 90 days there, telling me he thought he’d gotten something out of the program.

 

 

 

 

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Insect & other BioInvasions

Preface.  Invasive insects that have no predators in the U.S. can only be somewhat reduced with oil-based products that will grow scarcer as petroleum declines. Pesticides are made out of oil and damage the environment for many generations to come.

To prepare for oil decline, more research needs to be done to study native predators as pest control, which takes time since since they might do as much harm as the invasive species. There are 83 known invasive insects harming forests alone, and far more devouring food crops, all of them developing resistance to whatever pesticides are thrown at them within 5 years on average.

Ironically, invasive species like fire ants can be excellent pest control agents (Yirka 2022). What a shame the fire ant wars across the entire south east doused the land with millions of tons of toxic pesticides instead (Buhs 2004). And could these poisons gone to people’s heads and made them prefer the toxic disinformation they’d like to hear (Stirewalt 2022)?

Invasion by non-native insects expected to increase 36% by 2050. Europe is likely to experience the strongest biological invasions, followed by Asia, North America and South America (USDA 2020).

Worldwide, forests are increasingly affected by nonnative insects and diseases, some of which cause substantial tree mortality. Forests in the United States have been invaded by a particularly large number (>450) of tree-feeding pest species, with  41.1% of the total live forest biomass in the conterminous United States is at risk of future loss from just 15 pests. Since forests contribute ~76% of North America’s net terrestrial carbon sequestration, this loss may accelerate climate change (Fei 2019).

Perhaps postcarbon survivors will find yet another solution: eating insects, and why not, over 2 billion people eat bugs as a standard part of their diet (Mishan 2018).

Below are specific species that I’ve run across in the news, clearly hundreds of other species could be added.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Kaplan S (2022) As many as one in six U.S. tree species is threatened with extinction. Some 100 native tree species could die out amid an onslaught of invasive insects, a surge in deadly diseases and the all-encompassing peril of climate change. Washington Post

The new study is the first to list and assess the health of all 881 tree species native to the contiguous United States. “Plant blindness” — the human tendency to overlook the plants that surround us — means that fewer resources are devoted to the organisms that supply Earth’s oxygen, feed its animals and store more carbon than humanity will emit in 10 years. Until several years ago, scientists didn’t even know how many tree species existed (the correct number is 58,497).

The threatened list includes soaring coast redwoods, capacious American chestnuts, elegant black ash and gnarled whitebark pine. Yet only eight tree species are federally recognized as endangered or threatened.  In the United States, she found, more than two-thirds of species had never been assessed for their extinction risk. Others hadn’t been examined in decades, even as new illnesses and rising global temperatures imperiled their populations. After five years poring over scientific journals, combing through academic databases and interviewing experts, the researchers uncovered that swaths of America’s forests have silently slipped toward oblivion.

Invasive insects or pathogens are the predominant drivers of extinction risk, the scientists found. Though trees have highly evolved immune systems — a necessity for any creature that survives for centuries — they are easily overwhelmed by disease they’ve never encountered before.And climate change seems to be making these threats worse.  Trees stressed by extreme weather become easy pickings for marauding insects and fungi. Prolonged droughts deprive trees of the water they need to produce resin, the sticky substance they use to seal up wounds and trap potential invaders.

In some cases, changing environmental conditions may turn previously benign organisms into killers. Adams pointed to an outbreak of blight among bur oaks across the Midwest. Though the trees have long coexisted with the fungus that causes the disease, they only started dying in recent years. Researchers think that escalating severe storms and heavy floods — trademarks of rising global temperatures — are promoting the growth of the fungus at the expense of its tree hosts.

The decline of American trees is just one piece of a broader crisis ravaging the planet. A 2019 report from the United Nations Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services estimated that 1 million species are in danger of dying out. The global rate of extinction is at least tens of hundreds of times higher than normal and still accelerating, threatening to eclipse some of the largest mass die-offs in Earth’s history.

The threats to trees are especially worrying, Westwood said, because of the distinct role they play in nature. Trees are the largest and longest-lived organisms on the planet. They constitute the framework of ecosystems, provide habitat for other creatures and even create their own weather.

And trees have an essential role in humanity’s efforts to avert catastrophic climate change. The United States’ plan to halve emissions by the end of the decade depends on forests to offset about 12 percent of its planet-warming pollution. Disease outbreaks, wildfires, droughts, logging and pollution may jeopardize that plan.

Lambert J (2021) These are the 5 costliest invasive species, causing billions in damages. Science News.

The impact from all invasive species cost the global economy at least $1 trillion since 1970. $149 billion: Aedes mosquitoes (A. albopictus and A. aegypti), $67 billion: Rats, $52 billion: Cats, $19 billion: Termites, $17 billion: Fire Ants

Sever M (2020) Invasive jumping worms damage U.S. soil and threaten forests. The writhing wrigglers devour leaf litter, changing soils and ecosystems as they go. Science News.

These earthworms are wriggling their way across the United States, voraciously devouring protective forest leaf litter and leaving behind bare, denuded soil. They displace other earthworms, centipedes, salamanders and ground-nesting birds, and disrupt forest food chains. They can invade more than five hectares in a single year, changing soil chemistry and microbial communities as they go, new research shows. And they don’t even need mates to reproduce.

Endemic to Japan and the Korean Peninsula, three invasive species of these worms — Amynthas agrestis, A. tokioensis and Metaphire hilgendorfi — have been in the United States for over a century. But just in the past 15 years, they’ve begun to spread widely (SNS: 10/7/16). Collectively known as Asian jumping worms, crazy worms, snake worms or Alabama jumpers, they’ve become well established across the South and Mid-Atlantic and have reached parts of the Northeast, Upper Midwest and West.

Jumping worms consume more nutrients than other earthworms, turning soil into dry granular pellets that resemble coffee grounds or ground beef — Henshue calls it “taco meat.” This can make the soil inhospitable to native plants and tree seedlings and far more likely to erode.

Worms can reduce leaf litter by 95 percent in a single season, which in turn can reduce or remove the forest understory, providing less nutrients or protection for the creatures that live there or for seedlings to grow. Eventually, different plants come in, usually invasive, nonnative species, and they also are changing the soil chemistry and the fungi, bacteria and microbes that live in the soils.

Ant BioInvasion

2014 Crazy Ants are replacing Fire ants.  This is not a good thing!  If you do some research on crazy ants, you will miss the fire ants.  Researchers reported that where crazy ants take hold, the numbers and types of arthropods — insects, spiders, centipedes and crustaceans — decrease, which is likely to have ripple effects on ecosystems by reducing food sources for birds, reptiles and other animals. They also nest in people’s homes and damage electrical equipment.  University of Texas at Austin.  Crazy ants dominate fire ants by neutralizing their venom.

2021 Invasive tawny crazy ants have an intense craving for calcium – with implications for their spread in the US. These ants can blanket the ground by the millions. They harm other insects, asphyxiate chickens and even short-circuit electronics in homes.

This is the first study showing calcium is important to an invasive ant, a bit surprising given ants don’t have bones, but calcium is important in their egg productionlarval development and physiological regulation.

If the spread of crazy ants continues north, the calcium-rich limestone bedrock of the lower U.S. Midwest may provide ideal conditions for populations to explode. Farmlands may be at risk because calcium is found in many fertilizers. Additionally, cities often have more calcium than surrounding areas, thanks to heavy cement use, limestone quarrying and destruction of buildings.  Tawny crazy ants not only are a major threat to the biodiversity and conservation of ecosystems but also cost the U.S. billions of dollars in damage annually.

Fire Ants.

Integrated Pest Management Manual. National Park Service.

Senate Rpt.105-073 – Agricultural research, extension, & Education reform act of 1997

Ironically, Buh’s The Fire Ant Wars Nature, Science, and Public Policy in Twentieth-Century America book shows how the mind boggling amount of toxic chemicals dumped on vast regions of the South may have done far more harm than the fire ant itself, which can actually be quite beneficial because it attacks many crop pests.

Beetle BioInvasion

Khapra beetleIf this beetle gets a foothold in the USA, it could quickly consume the entire contents of a grain elevator, drive up the cost of food, and if anyone tried to eat the remaining grain, make them sick from the beetle skin and feces.  Economically, this would also ruin our agricultural export industry.  The Khapra beetle eats just about everything — cereals, grains, and dry plant or animal matter.  They are hard to get rid of because they’re extremely resistant to insecticides and fumigants.  In 2009 it was on the worldwide list of the 100 most feared invasive pests and has been found 16 times at U.S. seaports and airports.  In 2010 it was found 34 times, and in 2011 106 times (Mullen 2011). 

Ash borer beetles – 8 billion trees at risk

Hamilton, Anita. 4 Jul 2011. The Bug That’s Eating America. Time Magazine.

Infestations of ash borer beetles have killed 60 million ash trees in 15 states since they first appeared in Detroit in 2002.  Deb McCullough, an entomologist, considers them to be the most destructive forest insect ever to invade North America.  There are 8 billion ash trees for this pest with no predators to chow down on in the future. Cities are expected to spend over $10 billion the next decade to fight this pest and remove infested trees.  Unfortunately, many cities replaced elms destroyed with only ashes, in the future towns plan to plant a wider variety of trees.

Mountain Pine Beetle invades ponderosa, lodgepole, Scotch and limber pine trees. They once played a useful role by killing old or weakened trees, but climate change has turned them into an  unprecedented epidemic.

And it’s not just “one thing” — according to this June 2012 article, Dying Trees in Southwest Set Stage for Erosion, Water Loss in Colorado River: a one-two punch of drought and mountain pine beetle attacks have killed more than 2.5 million acres of pinyon pine and juniper trees in the American Southwest the past 15 years, setting the stage for further ecological disruption.  The widespread dieback of these tree species is a special concern because they are some of the last trees that can hold together a fragile ecosystem, stabilize soil, store carbon in their biomass and the soil beneath their canopy, nourish other plant and animal species, and prevent serious soil erosion. The major form of soil erosion in this region is wind erosion. Dust blowing from eroded hills can cover snowpacks, cause them to absorb heat from the sun and melt more quickly, and further reduce critically-short water supplies in the Colorado River basin.

In British Columbia over 40 million acres have been affected, and over 3, 600,000 acres in Colorado and Wyoming.  It may be the largest forest insect blight ever seen in North America.

The small hive beetle is a beekeeping pest. It was first discovered in 1996 and is now in many states including, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New York, Virginia and Hawaii.  The small hive beetle can be a destructive pest of honey bee colonies, causing damage to comb, stored honey and pollen and even cause bees to abandon their hive. The beetles can also invest stored combs and honey inside. Beetle larvae defecate and discolor the honey as they tunnel through it.

Beetles destroy coffee plants.  Now that’s a real tragedy! I can cope with the collapse of civilization as long as I have my morning  cup of coffee.  But the coffee berry borer beetle now threatens coffee plants.  It affects over 20 million farming families and causes half a billion dollars in damage every year.

Lanternflies

The spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula, first showed up in the United States five years ago, and are expected to expand throughout the nation. They can decimate vineyards, and destroy maples, oaks, and dozens of other trees by feeding on their sap (NPR 2019 Vineyards Facing An Insect Invasion May Turn To Aliens For Help).

Brown Marmorated Stink Bug

In 2010, the species reached outbreak proportions, inflicting severe economic injury in Mid-Atlantic U.S. tree fruit production to the tune of $37 million dollars. The species has now spread to 44 states, and a wave of stink bugs seems to be pushing westward and southward with no end yet in sight.

Spotted Wing Drosophila

This species is attracted to not-quite-ripe or ripe fruit, tears it open, and deposits eggs in the ripening fruit. By the time the fruit are harvested, they are crawling with fly maggots. First spotted on berries in 2008 it’s now spread from southern California to British Columbia, Canada, and most temperate areas of the U.S.  They are causing up to $500 million in damage a year, an able to reproduce 13 generations in a season (Morrison 2011).

References

Buhs JB (2004) The Fire Ant Wars. University of Chicago Press.

Fei S et al (2019) Biomass losses resulting from insect and disease invasions in US forests. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Mishan L (2019) Why Aren’t We Eating More Insects? They’re high in protein, low in cost, eco-friendly and tasty. And only in the West have we resisted them. New York Times.

Morrison R (2018) Invasive Insects: The Top 4 “Most Wanted” List. Entomology Today.

Mullen W (2011) Inspectors do battle against alien invader. Customs agents search cargo for voracious beetle. Chicago Tribune.

Stirewalt C (2022) Broken News: Why the Media Rage Machine Divides America and How to Fight Back

USDA (2020) Invasion by non-native insects expected to increase 36%. Morning AgClips.

Yirka B (2022) Replacing pesticides with ants to protect crops. phys.org

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Richard Heinberg on what to do

Preface. I encourage you to read Heinberg’s entire “A simple way…” post. It is a great overview of history and how we came to this point of energy decline. And as usual, easy to read, clear, and wise as is all his writing. Much of this repeats what other “what to do” posts recommend, but I think that his first idea is important, to use “renewable” energy to supply electricity for applications that are especially important. That is the main reason to build solar and wind turbines at all, to keep the grid up until we run out of the natural gas to do so, since it will be hard enough to adjust to a tremendous decline in transportation and manufacturing.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Richard Heinberg. 2020. A simple way to understand what’s happening … and what to do. Resilience.org

…we must deploy remaining energy strategically—not with the intent to maintain current patterns of industrial production and consumption, but with the goal of keeping necessities available while the amount of useful energy declines. Forget 5G, the Internet of Things, and self-driving cars. Concentrate on low tech for the most part, and use renewable energy to supply electricity for applications that are especially important. During the last few decades we have digitized all human knowledge; if the grid goes down, we lose civilization altogether. We must choose what knowledge is essential and let the rest go, but that will take a while; in the interim, we need electricity to keep the grid up and running—and solar and wind can provide it.

Food is also top priority. Provide incentives and education for city kids to move to the country and start small farms. Make land available to them if they will work it sustainably, and do whatever is necessary to enable them to make a decent living. Promote urban gardening. Support local food distribution networks as well as small-scale, energy-efficient local storage and processing facilities.

Ratchet down production and consumption of manufactured goods controllably. The best way to do this is to remove the elements of profit and affordability from distribution as much as possible. That means distributing necessities more by quota than by price. Rationing has often worked well in the past; we need it now more than ever.

Reducing inequality will help. If inequality remains at current levels, social cohesion will be difficult to maintain. Reduction in inequality can substitute for overall economic growth in keeping the poorest from descending into destitution. Tax the rich.

Focus on the local economy. That means letting go of empire-building aspirations and many aspects of global trade—but re-localization will yield upsides from more robust and satisfying community relationships.

Forgive debts. Start with student loans, but don’t stop there. Defaults will occur anyway; what’s important is that there is support for people thrown out of work as a result of bankruptcies. Save bailouts for industries that are actually essential (we really don’t need hedge funds, airlines, and car companies).

Reduce population by incentivizing small families rather than large ones, and by fully supporting the rights of women.

Reduce harms to the environment so that it doesn’t cost as much to recover from natural disasters or to clean up pollution. Reducing population, production, and consumption will certainly help, but we could achieve just as much by transforming agriculture so that farms build topsoil rather than ruining it, and capture atmospheric carbon rather than adding to it.

With regard to the pandemic, everyone should emulate New Zealand. That means total lockdowns for a period of weeks, then massive testing and tracing efforts directed by compassionate but strong, science-minded leaders. No excuses. No arguments about facemasks and contact questionnaires. Just do it. Eliminate the virus. Then we can move on and celebrate.

Which brings me to a final point: life is about more than survival. We are all more likely to engage willingly in the collective effort described above if we are able to enjoy ourselves in the process. Over the next few decades, we need to build a social system that differs radically from the industrial, consumption-oriented, growth economy of the 20th century. Let’s make it a beautiful human world, filled with opportunities for singing, dancing, reflecting, remembering, imagining, mourning, meditating, and all the other life-sustaining activities that go on in a healthy culture. Enlist creative artists in the process, and enable everyone with even an ounce of creativity to find ways to express it.

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Methods to preserve knowledge for Wood world (Life After Fossil Fuels)

Preface.  My books “When Trucks Stop Running” and “Life after fossil fuels” explain why we are returning to wood as our major energy resource and for infrastructure, just like all civilizations before fossil fuels. I call it “Wood World”. The electric grid will come down, permanently. All the trillions of documents online will be lost.  So too will CDs — they can easily begin failing after only five years”.  Or a bit longer if stored at 41 F / 5 C and 30% humidity Salter (2019).

We ought to be preserving knowledge on metal, glass, or other materials that residents of Wood World can read, even if they don’t have the technology to record knowledge. It is probably only doable now while we have fossil fuels and precision machine tools and engineering.  Without an electric grid or computers in wood world, magnifying glasses and microscopes will have to suffice for future generations.

Below are projects I’ve run across to store knowledge, none of them suitable for Wood World.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Microsoft’s Project Silica: store data in glass blocks (Salter 2019, Nordrum 2020)

The advantage of Project Silica’s glass blocks is that there’s no plastic outer covering to wear off as there is with CD, DVD or Blu-Ray, and there’s no magnetic medium to physically lose from the surface of a tape or hard disk.  Silica is expected to survive for thousands of years in nearly any temperature, humidity, and chemical environment—it’s literally just glass, and the physical and chemical properties of glass are extremely well understood.

But…clearly this is not a way to store knowledge for life after fossil fuel, Wood World will not be able to read the glass: “Reading data from the glass is a drawback of this method. Researchers shine different kinds of polarized light—in which light waves all oscillate in the same direction, rather than every which way—onto specific voxels. They capture the results with a camera. Then, machine-learning algorithms analyze those images and translate their measurements into data”

Nor will Wood World be able to store data this way: “The storage medium is a block of high-purity glass, which has voxels (3D pixels) etched into it with femtosecond lasers. Machine learning algorithms read the data back by decoding images and patterns that are created as polarized light shines through the glass. It is not something you have in your house to read or play movies, it is meant to store massive amounts of zettabytes (1021) of cloud data.

“The writing process is hard to make reliable and repeatable, and [it’s hard] to minimize the time it takes to create a voxel,” says Rowstron. “The read process has been a challenge in figuring out how to read the data from the glass using the minimum signal possible from the glass.”

REFERENCES

Nordrum A (2020) Lasers Write Data Into Glass. Microsoft’s Project Silica is one of several efforts underway to make it practical to store huge amounts of data in glass. IEEE Spectrum.

Salter J (2019) Microsoft’s Project Silica offers robust thousand-year storage. Project Silica extends storage reliability goals from “decades” to “centuries.” Arstechnica.

 

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USGS Groundwater Depletion study of aquifer decline in the U.S.

GroundwaterDepletion 1900-2008 USAPreface. I summarize two major research papers on the state of the Ogallal below.  It and many other aquifers are depleting rapidly, and polluted from pesticides, feedlot waste, intruding salts, and other pollution. Rainfall isn’t replenishing the Ogallala. Many won’t be recharged until after the next ice age.

Globally, aquifers are “highly stressed” in 17 countries that hold one-quarter of the world’s population, according to the World Resources Institute. Water and food supplies for billions of people are under threat.

The Ogallala is one of Earth’s largest aquifers. This water is used in 10 great Plains states and produces 20% of U.S. food and 40% of the grain fed to cattle.  Over the last century, two-thirds of the total water has been pumped up, enough to fill Lake Erie.  Many geologists expect parts  of the Ogallala to run out of water in 25 to 30 years.

The “tragedy of the commons” is writ large over the Ogallala. Underground water ignores property lines, so farming and ranching owners pump as much as they can because their neighbors are doing likewise (Hayes 2015).

Like climate change, aquifer depletion is the type of problem that human minds aren’t well designed to handle. We operate day to day, but this problem spans generations.

Groundwater pumping in the High Plains Aquifer currently supports 30% of the irrigated agriculture in the USA and has transformed the region into the “Breadbasket of the World”.  Peak groundwater depletion from over-tapping aquifers beyond recharge rates happened in 1999 Texas, 2002 New Mexico, 2010 Kansas, 2012 Oklahoma, 2023 Colorado and peaks for Nebraska, South Dakota and Wyoming won’t occur until 2110 (Steward 2015).

Cows are polluting the Ogallala (and other aquifers). The aquifer’s water was once of such fine quality that you could drink it unfiltered and untreated. Now, however, the EPA says that pesticides, fertilizers, feedlot wastes, trace metals, and volatile organic compounds have contaminated much of it.

Aquifers in the news:

Stokstad E (2020) Deep Deficit. Droughts highlighted California’s unsustainable use of groundwater. Now, the state is trying to refill its aquifers. Science 368: 230-233. Researchers estimate that in the Central Valley, half of the aquifers are dangerously depleted. California’s Central Valley—one of the richest agricultural regions in the world—is sinking. During a recent intense drought, from 2012 to 2016, parts of the valley sank as much as 60 centimeters per year. For decades, farmers have relentlessly pumped groundwater to irrigate their crops, draining thick, water-bearing clay layers deep underground. As the clays compress, roads, bridges, and irrigation canals have cracked, causing extensive and expensive damage. Such sagging can leave canals carrying less water. Excessive pumping also jeopardizes water quality, as pollutants accumulate within groundwater and the clays release arsenic. Worst of all, the persistent pumping means that, one day, aquifers might run out of usable water.  Geologists are working to identify the best places to replenish aquifers by flooding farm fields, including some with especially permeable geology.

Schreiner-McGraw AP et al (2020) Woody Plant Encroachment has a Larger Impact than Climate Change on Dryland Water Budgets. Scientific Reports.  Grasslands across the globe, which support the majority of the world’s grazing animals, have been transitioning to shrublands. This study found that shrub encroachment on slopes can increase the amount of water that goes into groundwater storage. The effect is so powerful that it even counterbalances the lower annual rainfall amounts expected during climate change.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Konikow, L.F. 2013. Groundwater depletion in the United States (1900−2008): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013−5079.

According to the USGS Groundwater Depletion in the United States 1900-2008:

  • Groundwater depletion in the United States between 1900–2008 was 240 cubic miles (1,000 cubic km3).
  • That’s twice as much water in Lake Erie (480 km3).
  • For many areas the rate is unsustainable
  • This rate increased dramatically after 1950
  • The consumption rate nearly tripled from 2000-2008 over past rates.  Some of this was due to drought and decreased snowmelt.
  • In 2000-2008 about 25% of all water taken during the previous century was removed. This large volume of depletion represents a serious problem in the United States because much of this storage loss cannot be easily or quickly recovered and affects the sustainability of some critical water supplies and base flow to streams, among other effects
  • The Ogallala aquifer won’t be replenished until after the next ice age and underlies 10 states (175,000 square miles). It is the main source of drinking and agricultural water. In 2000-2008, as much water was taken out as during the entire previous century from 1900 to 1999.
  • Another dark side to depleting aquifers is that the extra water runs into the ocean and adds 2% of the global sea-level rise seen so far. 

Map of the United States showing cumulative groundwater depletion 1900-2008 in 40 assessed aquifer systems or subareas. Colors are hatched in the Dakota aquifer (area 39) where the aquifer overlaps with other aquifers having different values of depletion (page 16).

GroundwaterDepletion 1900-2008 USA by regionCumulative groundwater depletion in the United States and major aquifer systems or categories, 1900 through 2008

GroundwaterDepletion 1900-2008 USA by decadeDecadal scale rate of groundwater depletion in the United States, 1900 through 2008. Final value represents average rate during an 8-year period, 2001 through 2008.

Agricultural and Land Drainage in the United States

During the 20th century, many agricultural and civil engineering projects were completed for land reclamation, flood control, and agricultural drainage purposes in the United States. This led to significant losses of wetland areas throughout the Nation. On farms, crop yields can be increased by keeping the water table some distance below the land surface, thereby precluding water logging of land and allowing salts to be removed from the soil profile. Drainage projects can result in permanently lowered water-table elevations both locally and regionally. Where the seasonal or average annual position of the water table is permanently lowered, the net decline represents a long-term depletion of the volume of groundwater in storage below the land surface.

The first half of the 20th century was marked by emerging technologies for land drainage. Farmers joined together in drainage organizations to build drainage and flood control measures. Large-scale drainage projects backed by drainage organizations and Federal agencies affected both large and small wetland areas. Agricultural and urban expansion persisted throughout the United States. Use of drained lands usually occurred in a succession, from undrained wetlands to agricultural lands to urban areas. These factors led to the drainage of over 100,000 square miles of wetlands in the lower 48 states during the 20th century, which is about 55 km3 of permanently lost water.

Institute of Medicine. The Nexus of Biofuels, Climate Change, and Human Health: Workshop Summary. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2014.

The session’s first speaker was Lester Brown, founder and president of the Earth Policy Institute and one of the world’s best-known environmental analysts. He spoke on the importance of biofuels in the world food economy.

Brown said that last year 129 million tons of grain were converted into ethanol in the United States, and because there are about 400 million tons of grain produced in the country each year, that means that the share going to biofuels is roughly 30%. The amount of grain going to biofuels production exceeded the amount of grain being used to feed livestock and poultry. “We are now diverting more grain to fuel than to feed.”

To put the 129 million tons into perspective, Brown pointed out that this is more grain than Russia produces in total. “So, we have taken out of the food/feed economy a chunk of grain, variety of factors are making it difficult for farmers to keep up with the record growth in the demand for grain.

The four most important are water shortages, climate change, soil erosion, and hitting the ceiling on grain yields.

“Water shortages aren’t entirely new, but water shortages on the scale we are seeing today are unique.”

Half of the world’s people live in countries where water tables are falling as a result of overpumping, including the 3 major grain producers: China, India, and the United States.

“The World Bank estimates that in India, 175 million people are being fed with grain produced by overpumping,” he said. “My estimate for China is 130 million.”

In the United States, the irrigated areas in California and Texas, the country’s 2 largest agricultural states, are steadily shrinking, Brown said. In Texas, that is mostly because the wells are going dry. Many of the wells there rely on the Ogallala Aquifer, which is a fossil aquifer. In California, the shrinkage is partly due to wells going dry, but part of the reason is that substantial irrigation water is being diverted to cities.

And for the first time, there is a sub-region of the world with declining grain production as a result of water shortages; the Arab Middle East, including Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Yemen. In those countries, grain production is not only falling, but falling at a fairly substantial rate because the wells are going dry.

In Saudi Arabia, much of the pumping has come from a fossil aquifer, and it is almost gone now. “As it goes, so will their wheat production go.”

With the second major factor affecting food supply—climate change—there is still much that is not known, Brown commented.  A recent study that drew on data from hundreds of counties in the United States indicates that a 17% decline in grain yields for each 1° Celsius rise in temperature is likely.

The root of the issue lies in the relationship between temperature and photosynthesis. As temperature rises, Brown said, so does photosynthesis— but only up to 68°Fahrenheit (F). From 68°F degrees to 95°F, the photosynthesis remains constant, and above 95°F it begins to drop. Once the average temperature reaches 104°F, plants go into thermal shock and photosynthesis stops. Thus, he said, as the world’s average temperature edges up, it will affect grain yields adversely, unless the problem can be somehow offset through plant breeding, which researchers are now trying to do.

Climate change will bring other changes as well, such as changes in rainfall patterns. “The main point,” Brown said, “is that the agricultural system that we have now evolved over an 11,000-year period of rather remarkable climate stability. Now, suddenly, the climate system is changing.” Farmers no longer know exactly what to expect and do not have enough information to do long-term planning.

A third factor affecting food supply is soil erosion. The world is seeing more soil erosion than at any time in history. The United States experienced a dust bowl in the 1930s. To get it under control, farmers turned some of the land back into grasslands and instituted a variety of farming practices designed to minimize soil erosion. When the Soviet Union experienced a similar problem in the late 1950s, they reacted in a similar way.

“There are now two dust bowls forming in the world,” Brown said, “both far larger than either the one in the United States in the 1930s or the one in Russia in the late 1950s.” They are in northern China and the African Sahel. Indeed, the entire northern part of China is becoming a huge dust bowl. Rather than overplowing, however, the main reason is overgrazing. “The vegetation is simply being destroyed,” he said. China has about the same grazing capacity as the United States, but it has far more animals. Although both countries have close to 100 million head of cattle, the United States has only 9 million sheep and goats, while China has 284 million. “They are literally just destroying the vegetation throughout northern China,” Brown said. The government seems politically unable to deal with the problem, because of the potential unrest that would be caused by trying to reduce flocks to a sustainable level.

The fourth factor affecting food supply is that grain yields seem to have reached a point where it will be very difficult to increase them much more. In Japan and South Korea, rice yields were rising for decades. “Suddenly, about 15 years ago, they stopped rising and they have been flat as a pancake since then,” Brown said. China is just now reaching the same yields that Japan has, and unless China can take its rice yields beyond those in Japan—which Brown doubts will happen— that country is also about to hit a ceiling on rice yields. In Europe, wheat yields in the three major producers—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—have all been flat now for more than a decade. “In none of these countries that have hit the glass ceiling, has anyone been able to break out of it,” Brown said, “because they are being boxed in by the limits of photosynthesis itself. Unless someone can figure out a process that is more efficient than photosynthesis or somehow modify photosynthesis, which is not an easy thing, we are going to have to face the reality of more and more agriculturally advanced countries hitting these glass ceilings.”

What can be done?

Stabilize population, which will go hand in hand with eradicating poverty. “There are millions of women in the world today who want to plan their families, but who do not have access to family planning services,” Brown said. “Just getting them the services they want would take care of much of the population growth in the world today.”

REFERENCES

Hayes, Denis and Gail. 2015. Cowed: The Hidden Impact of 93 Million Cows on America’s Health, Economy, Politics, Culture, and Environment.    W.W. Norton & Company.

Konikow, L.F., 2013, Groundwater depletion in the United States (1900−2008): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2013−5079, 63 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2013/5079.
Steward, D. R., et al. 2015. Peak groundwater depletion in the high plains aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110. Agricultural water management 170: 36-48
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