Rees on Overshoot: Growth through contraction: conceiving an eco-economy

Preface.   William Rees writes some of the best and most comprehensible papers of all on the overshoot crisis we are in.  We should have begun a U-turn in the 60s after The Population Bomb, or the 70s when Limits to growth was published. At this late date there is less that can be done, but Rees valiantly has suggestions, and I don’t know of any better solutions.  He also explains very well and very quickly why building renewables won’t work.  And he’s got great citations worth reading too. I’ve summarized some of what he’s written, and some of a research paper, but I’ve left out charts, graphs, and more that you can see by going to his paper on the internet

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Lithium-ion battery recycling, environmental impact, energy used

Preface. The future of both electric vehicles and utility-scale energy storage are depending on lithium-ion batteries because of their high energy-density, and even though lithium is limited, it’s about the only kind of battery being made for transport (because it is also the 3rd lightest element) and energy storage.

Below there are two articles. The second one, a 2015 EPA study, looks at the impact of several kinds of lithium-ion batteries on resource depletion and impacts on global warming, acidification, eutrophication, ozone depletion, photochemical oxidation, ecological toxicity, human toxicity, cancer and other health hazards.  This study assumes that ways to recycle most of the materials will be found.

But the 2020 study points out that only 5% of li-ion batteries are being recycled, batteries aren’t designed to be recycled, and it is still cheaper to mine new lithium than recycle it, so the incentives aren’t high — except for the cobalt, which makes li-ion batteries worth recycling. Until cobalt-free batteries are invented…

Another issue is that many different lithium-ion chemistries exist, such as lithium manganese oxide and lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide. This complicates the logistics of recycling due to the possibility of mixing different chemicals in explosive ways. They contain hazardous chemicals, such as toxic lithium salts and transition metals, that can damage the environment and leach into water sources.

Lead acid batteries have a 99% recycling rate because the components are easy to separate and recycle.And lead is indefinitely recyclable without losing its quality and value. There is already a market for them, with the lead battery recycling often included in the upfront cost of a consumer buying a vehicle. Customers are refunded for returning used batteries to dealers or other sites.  But no such system exists for lithium car batteries.

Here’s a great article on the 6 main kinds of lithium batteries and there pros and cons as far as cost, safety, life span, performance, power (high energy on command, i.e. acceleration), and specific energy content per mass of the battery.

2023-4-18 The Six Major Types of Lithium-ion Batteries: A Visual Comparison 

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Oberhaus D (2020) The Race To Crack Battery Recycling—Before It’s Too Late. Wired.

Many of the millions of lithium-ion batteries made at the Tesla Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada don’t pass their final tests and are taken to a recycler where the batteries are melted back into raw materials for new batteries.

Mountains more will need recycling as the first wave of EVs reaches the end of their ten year lifespan, 800% more this decade alone.  Yet only 5% of lithium batteries are recycled today.  The dirty secret is that these are an e-waste time bomb. Li-ion batteries are federally designated as a Class 9 hazardous material, subjected to rigorous—and expensive—shipping restrictions to reduce the risk of fire or explosions during the journey.

Cells are not designed with material recovery in mind. And this makes them hard to unpack. Individual cells are complex systems that have several chemically-distinct components mixed and often with multiple welds in a small area, connected to dozens of other batteries so they can be controlled as one unit, making them very hard to disassemble for upgrades or recycling.

The company that recycles Tesla batteries uses both heat in a smelter that burns fossil fuels, and chemicals. They claim that 95 to 98% of a battery’s nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminum, and graphite, and more than 80% of its lithium are obtained after being broken down into its basic ingredients—lithium carbonate, cobalt sulfate, and nickel sulfate.  Another company accomplishes much the same result using no heat, just chemicals by soaking batteries in strong acids to dissolve the metals into a solution to recover lithium. But first the plastic casings need to be removed and the charge drained, increasing cost and complexity.  It is still much cheaper to mine new material, especially lithium than recover this way.

Still, it is hard to separate the lithium out because it is amalgamated with other metals for better conductivity

Recovery makes economic sense today because the cobalt is so valuable, as well as nickel and copper. But as battery makers find cobalt-free chemistries, the economics for recycling may not be justified since it is cheaper to mine new lithium than recycle it, plus there are still technical hurdles to overcome, especially making batteries designed for recycling.

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2013. Application of life-cycle assessment to nanoscale technology: Lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 

The study showed that the batteries that use cathodes with nickel and cobalt, as well as solvent-based electrode processing, have the highest potential for environmental impacts. These impacts include resource depletion, global warming, ecological toxicity, and human health impacts. The largest contributing processes include those associated with the production, processing, and use of cobalt and nickel metal compounds, which may cause adverse respiratory, pulmonary, and neurological effects in those exposed.

A number of groups have quantified the life-cycle impacts of lithium-ion batteries for use in vehicle applications, based primarily on secondary data sources. In general, the results of this study are fairly similar to these prior LCA studies. In terms of upstream materials extraction and battery manufacture stages, our estimates of primary energy use and greenhouse gas emissions ranged from 870-2500 MJ/kWh.

As of 2007, batteries accounted for 25% of lithium resource consumption; this amount is projected to increase significantly.

Water is the main material input at 500-5400 kg/kWh (24-67% of total) and second is the lithium brine taken from saline lakes in Chile at 540-750 kg/kWh (9-28% of total). See page 70 for the other inputs, and page 72 for energy use, most of which comes from the materials extraction stage in the life cycle.

Lifetime of the battery is a significant determinant of impact results; halving the lifetime of the battery results effectively doubles the non-use stage impacts, resulting in substantial increases in global warming potential, acidification potential, ozone depletion potential, and photochemical oxidation potential (e.g., smog); this is true even for PHEV-40s batteries, which are 3.4 times smaller in terms of capacity.

Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries will be critical to improving the marketability of electric vehicles, due to their large energy storage capability in comparison to other types of batteries, including nickel-metal- hydride (Ni-MH) batteries primarily used in HEVs. The share of Ni-MH batteries is anticipated to decrease in proportion to Li-ion batteries as more PHEVs and EVs come on the market. Li-ion batteries in HEVs are expected to grow to 30% of the HEV fleet by 2015, and 70% by 2020 and the demand for automotive Li-ion batteries is projected to parallel the growth of PHEVs and EVs, growing from about 1 billion USD in 2010 to 30 billion USD by 2018.

Life-Cycle Stages

Though the use stage of the battery dominates in most impact categories, upstream and production is non-negligible in all categories, and relatively important with regard to eutrophication potential, ozone depletion potential, ecological toxicity potential, and the occupational cancer and non-cancer hazard impact categories. The extraction and processing of metals, specifically aluminum used in the cathode and passive cooling system and steel used in the battery pack housing and battery management system (BMS), are key drivers of impacts.

Recovery of materials in the EOL stage significantly reduces overall life-cycle impacts, as the extraction and processing of virgin materials is a key contributor to impacts across battery chemistries. This is particularly the case for the cathode and battery components using metals (e.g., passive cooling system, BMS, pack housing and casing). Therefore, the analysis underscores the importance of curtailing the extraction of virgin lithium to preserve valuable resources and reduce environmental impacts.

Battery Chemistries, Components, and Materials

Across battery chemistries, the choice of active material for the cathode affects human health and toxicity results. For example, the nickel cobalt manganese lithium-ion (Li-NCM) chemistry relies on rare metals like cobalt and nickel, for which the data indicated significant non-cancer and cancer toxicity impact potential. The other two chemistries use the low er toxicity metals, manganese and iron.

The cathode active materials appear to all require large quantities of energy to manufacture. However, the Li-NCM cathode active material requires 1.4 to 1.5 times as much primary energy as the other two active materials.

The choice of materials for cell and battery casing and housing (e.g., steel or aluminum), which are primarily chosen for weight and strength considerations, are among the top process flow contributors to impacts in the upstream and manufacturing stages.

The battery chemistries used by the manufacturers include a lithium-manganese oxide, lithium-nickel-cobalt-manganese-oxide, and a lithium-iron phosphate chemistry.

The study assumes that the anticipated lifetime of the battery is the same as the anticipated lifetime of the vehicle for which it is used (10 years). Ten years is the anticipated lifetime the battery manufacturers seek to achieve. Therefore, our study assumes one ten-year Li -ion battery per vehicle life-time. There is uncertainty with respect to the actual lifetime of batteries in automobiles however.

  1. Raw materials extraction/acquisition. Activities related to the acquisition of natural resources, including mining non-renewable material, harvesting biomass, and transporting raw materials to processing facilities.
  2. Materials processing. Processing natural resources by reaction, separation, purification, and alteration steps in preparation for the manufacturing stage; and transporting processed materials to product manufacturing facilities.
  3. Product manufacture : Manufacture of components of battery cells and battery packs.
  4. Product use. Use of batteries in vehicles (PHEVs and EV s
  5. Final disposition/end-of -life (EOL): Recovery of the batteries at the end of their useful life.

Also included are the activities that are required to affect movement between the stages (e.g., transportation). The inputs (e.g., resources and energy) and outputs (e.g., product and waste) within each life cycle stage, as well as the interaction between each stage (e.g., transportation), are evaluated to determine the environmental impacts.

Battery recycling issues

Although metals are recovered from Li-ion batteries, they are currently not fed back into the battery cell manufacturing process. To do so, the recovered battery materials (including lithium) would need to be processed so they are “battery grade” which means they can be used as secondary material in the battery cell manufacturing process. However, there are a few key obstacles to achieving this goal, including:

  1. The battery manufacturers frequently modify their battery chemistries, which makes it difficult to incorporate recovered materials. This is especially a concern for EV batteries, which may be recovered 10 to 15 years after the battery is manufactured. The battery companies continually modify their chemistries to try to obtain market distinction and to improve charge capacity and energy density, which generate benefits in the use stage of the battery.
  2. The battery manufacturers are hesitant to use secondary materials, as they fear it will not be of high enough quality to meet the battery specifications required by the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) that purchase the batteries and manufacture the vehicles.

Batteries may be capable of having a –second life or use as part of another product, such as to provide energy storage for an electricity grid; however, there is limited information on characterizing spent batteries in a secondary application, so the potential second life was not included in this study.

What a 22-26.5 lb (10-12 kg) Li-ion battery is made of

% Mass        Component / Material (s)

15-24   Anode / Copper foil (collector) 1-12%, graphite/carbon 8-13%, polymer 1%, solvent 1-6%

29-39   Cathode / aluminum 4-9%, lithium 22-31%, polymer 1-3%, solvent 1-11%

2-3       Separator / polymer

3-20     Cell Casing / aluminum and polymer

8-15     Electrolyte / carbonate solvents 7-13%, lithium hexafluorophosphate 1-2%

2          Battery Management System / copper wiring 1%, steel 1%, printed wire board <1%

17-23   Battery Pack Casing/housing / polypropylene

17-20   Passive Cooling System / steel and aluminum.

Transportation

In order to estimate transportation distances and impacts, assumptions are made with respect to where the raw materials will likely be obtained throughout the supply chain.

Overall, the LCA assumed that raw materials were obtained from where they are typically produced. For instance, we assumed that the basic lithium salts would come from Chile, cobalt and nickel would come from the Congo, battery-grade graphite would come from China, and the cathode active material would be obtained from Japan. Other, more common basic inputs were assumed to be globally sourced.

Materials and products produced or shipped domestically would be transported 95% by mass, at an average distance of 260 miles in a for-hire truck, and 5% by mass, at an average distance of 853 miles in railcars. The distance estimates are based on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics “Hazmat Shipment by Mode of Transportation”.

Summary of results and conclusions

4.1 Battery Chemistry, Components, and Materials

Battery chemistry appears to influence the results in a number of impact categories, due to impacts associated with upstream materials extraction and processing, and energy use. Overall, the study found that the choice of active material for the cathode influences the results across most of the impact categories. For example, the Li-NCM chemistry relies on rare metals, such as cobalt and nickel, for which the data indicate significant non-cancer and cancer toxicity impact potential; this is reflected in the occupational hazard categories. The other two battery chemistries use the relatively lower toxicity metals, manganese and iron.

Other material choices also produce differences in impact results. One choice that stands out in particular is the use of aluminum in various battery components, from the cathode substrate to the cell casing. Battery chemistries that use larger quantities of aluminum, such as LiMnO2 and LiFePO4 , show distinctly higher potential for ozone depletion impacts than the battery chemistry that does not, Li-NCM. As discussed before, this is a direct outcome of the CFC 11 releases during the upstream processes that lead to aluminum end-products.

Energy use is another chemistry-specific driver. Across battery chemistries, the cathode is a dominant contributor to upstream and component manufacturing impacts. The cathode active materials appear to all require large quantities of energy to manufacture. However, the data indicate that the Li-NCM cathode active material requires approximately 50% more primary energy than the other two active materials.

4.2 Vehicle/Battery Type

In looking at the impacts for PHEV and EV Li-ion batteries, this study found that, in general, global warming potential is one of the few categories in which EV batteries show lower impacts than PHEV batteries; however, this is not unequivocal. A true net benefit in global warming potential for EV batteries only appears when the grid is not coal-centric, and battery production does not represent a substantial proportion of primary energy consumption (e.g., LiMnO2 . Drawing on the average U.S. grid, EV batteries show a small average net benefit over PHEV batteries across all battery chemistries (about 25 g CO 2 -eq./km). However, the electricity grid in Illinois, which is more representative of the Southeast, Appalachia, and Midwest, shows PHEV-40 batteries more favorable than EV batteries, on a GWP-basis. In other words, given present grid conditions, it might be preferable for people living in these regions to buy PHEV-40s if mitigation of global warming impacts are highly valued (based on assessment of the battery life cycle, including its use — not the entire vehicle).

Abiotic depletion and eutrophication potential impacts are the only other impact categories in which EV batteries show lower impacts; however, there are some caveats. Specifically, lower impacts for EV batteries are only evident in these categories when the grid is comp ri sed to a large extent of natural gas- based generation facilities, and battery production does not represent a substantial proportion of the overall primary energy use (e.g., for LiMnO 2 batteries). It is likely that most of the impacts across categories would be lower for EV batteries if the average electricity grid were less dependent on fossil fuels, and relied more on renewable sources of energy.

4.3 Life-Cycle Stages

Impacts vary significantly across life-cycle stages for all battery chemistries and vehicle battery types. Though the use stage of the battery dominates in nearly all impact categories, upstream materials extraction and processing and battery production are non-negligible in all categories, and are significant contributors to eutrophication potential, ozone depletion potential, ecological toxicity potential, and the occupational cancer and non-cancer hazard impact categories.

During the upstream materials extraction and processing stages, which are implicated in a number of impact categories, common metals drive stage-specific impacts. Aluminum used in manufacture of the cathode and passive cooling system comes up as a driver in a number of impact categories, especially in ozone depletion potential. Steel, which is used in the battery pack housing and BMS, is another metal that shows up in a number of different impact categories as a driver, including global warming potential and ecological toxicity potential, due to cyanide emissions.

Lifetime of the battery is a significant determinant of impact results, as it directly modifies the proportion of the impact attributable to all non-use stages. Halving the lifetime of the battery results in sizeable changes in global warming potential, acidification potential, ozone depletion potential, and photochemical oxidation potential (e.g., smog); this is true even for PHEV-40 batteries that are 3.4 times smaller in terms of capacity. Longevity by battery chemistry should be assessed in future research, because of the correlation of greater battery lifetimes with reduced environmental impacts.

4.5 Implications for the Electricity Grid

One factor that has the potential to significantly change the outcome of an electric vehicle battery LCA is the choice of average versus marginal electricity generation to generate impact estimates. U.S. LCI data and GaBi data currently apply an average mix of electricity generation for different regions. Though average electricity provisions may make more sense when thinking about the impact of battery product systems in static, long-run analyses, the electricity grid is subject to cyclical as well as structural changes in the distribution of underlying energy generation processes. Marginal generation considers the deployment of new technology that may draw a lot more electricity at different times from the electric grid. With the increase in use of electric cars, it will likely change the make-up of the grid from its current mix. So, it may be important to consider the “marginal” generation, instead of focusing only on the “average” generation. Accordingly, attribution of the average grid mix to battery charging may not accurately reflect the impact of the batteries on overall electricity production.

Key improvements needed

Increase the lifetime of the battery

  • Reduce cobalt and nickel use (high toxicity)
  • Reduce the percentage of metals by mass.
  • Use recycled material
  • Use a solvent-less process to make batteries
  • Reassess manufacturing process and upstream materials selection to reduce primary energy use for the cathode.

The biggest contributor to most impact categories — larger in most cases than the upstream, and component and battery manufacturing stages combined — was the electricity grid. The sensitivity analysis conducted in the study showed that distinctive patterns emerged when electricity was derived primarily from coal (Illinois smart charging scenario), versus when it was derived primarily from natural gas (WECC and ISO-NE unconstrained charging).

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Heat effects on habitability, biodiversity, and invasive species

Preface. Due to limits of human heat tolerance, much of Earth’s surface may not be habitable by 2300 if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate.

But we can’t continue at the current rate. Peak oil production probably peaked in 2018 (see citations in chapter 2 of my book Life After Fossil Fuels). IPCC models assumed we would be burning fossils until 2400 at exponentially increasing rates because they included resources in their calculations, while the reserves that can actually be exploited are a fraction of that amount. So the worst predictions are not likely to happen, but the effects will be plenty bad, and already are in many places, just not extinction or a hothouse earth.

Extreme heat events could lead to a tipping point in regional politics or social stability. In Africa, extreme droughts and high temperatures have been linked to an increase of risk of civil conflict and large-scale humanitarian crisis in Africa.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Xu C et al (2020) Future of the human climate niche.

As the climate continues to warm over the next half-century, up to one-third of the world’s population is likely to live in areas that are considered unsuitably hot for humans. Today fewer than 25 million people live in the world’s hottest areas, most of them in the African Sahara region. But by 2070 such extreme heat could encompass a much larger part of Africa, as well as parts of India, the Middle East, South America, Southeast Asia and Australia. With global population projected to rise to about 10 billion by 2070, that means as many as 3.5 billion people living in these areas.  If this forces many to migrate, that would cause massive economic and societal disruptions.

Higher Heat effects on habitability 

Well-known threats like rising oceans and economic depressions are not nearly as serious as the potential heat that might make the world, thermally, partly or completely uninhabitable by humans (SD 2010, McMichael 2010, Sherwood 2010).

Most heat on the planet is dry, and we can handle that, but we’re not adapted to surviving very humid heat — a wet-bulb temperature of over 95 F — for more than six hours, even if we’re resting in well-ventilated shade. Hot, humid heat leads to hyperthermia, heat stress, and eventually death.  Heat stress is already a leading cause of fatalities.

What will happen when temperatures rise this much:

  • 4 °C: would subject over half the world’s people to unprecedented heat
  • 7 °C:  some regions may become uninhabitable
  • 10 °C: the amount of land that would become uninhabitable from heat stress is far more that what we’ll lose from rising sea levels
  • 11-12 °C: would expand these regions to include most of today’s human population

It’s unlikely we’ll adapt with air-conditioning due to limited fossil fuels, nor would AC protect livestock or outside workers, and power failures would be life-threatening.

Why heat kills

The reason crowded indoor theaters get so hot is because everyone is radiating heat like a 100 Watt light-bulb.  Normally this heat is carried away by sweating, heat conduction, and other radiative cooling.  But when the air is very moist and hot, the second law of thermodynamics does not allow us to lose heat when the wet bulb temperature (TW) exceeds 95 °F for a long period.

We all have core body temperatures around 98.6 °F regardless of climate, and our skin is lightly cooler, about 95, so that metabolic heat is conducted to the skin.  If our skin sustains temperatures above 98, then our core temperatures will rise even more, and once our core reaches about 108 F for any length of time, we’re likely to die of hyperthermia, no matter how acclimated and fit a person is.

Heat waves cause heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and heat stroke; heat waves are one of the most common causes of weather-related deaths in United States. Summertime heat waves will likely become longer, more frequent, more severe, and more relentless with decreased potential to cool down at night. Increases in heat-related deaths due to climate change are likely to outweigh decreases in deaths from cold snaps. In general, heat waves and the associated health issues disproportionately affect more vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, those with existing cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, and those who are economically disadvantaged or socially isolated. Increasing temperature and humidity levels can cross thresholds where it is unsafe for individuals to perform heavy labor (below a direct physiological limit). Recent work has shown that environmental heat stress has already reduced the labor capacity in the tropics and mid-latitudes during peak months of heat stress by 10%, and another 10% decrease is projected by 2050 with much larger decreases further into the future (NRC 2013).

Higher Heat effects on Biodiversity

As the planet’s oceans and rivers warm, increased heat could pose a grave threat to the fish populations the world depends on by the end of this century.  Three billion people depend on fish and seafood as their main source of protein (WWF 2021). Among the species at risk are some of the most commercially important species on Earth — Atlantic cod, Alaska pollock and sockeye salmon, and sport fishing favorites like swordfish, barracuda and brown trout. In fact, 60% of the fish species examined could struggle to reproduce in their current habitat ranges by the year 2100 if the climate crisis continues unchecked (Dahlke et al 2020).

Higher Heat effects on invasive species

Bark beetles are a natural part of forested ecosystems, and infestations are a regular force of natural change. In the last two decades, though, the bark beetle infestations that have occurred across large areas of North America have been the largest and most severe in recorded history, killing millions of trees across millions of hectares of forest from Alaska to southern California. Climate change is thought to have played a significant role in these recent outbreaks by maintaining temperatures above a threshold that would normally lead to cold-induced mortality.

Over 30% more ponderosa pines died in the Sierra during last decade’s drought due to the hastened rate of beetle development, who mature faster in higher temperatures, shortening the time it takes to new generations. This will worsen tree deaths — already California has lost 163 million trees since 2010 due to a combination of beetles and drought. This makes it more likely trees won’t grow back as well, these areas will increasingly become inhabited by shrubs and grasslands (Robbins 2021)

References

Dahlke FT, Wohlrab S, Butzin M et al (2020) Thermal bottlenecks in the life cycle define climate vulnerability of fish. Science 369: 65-70

Robbins ZJ (2021) Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California. Global Change Biology.

SD (2010)  Global Warming: Future Temperatures Could Exceed Livable Limits, Researchers Find. ScienceDaily.

McMichael A et al (2010) Climate change: Heat, health, and longer horizons. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science.

NRC. 2013. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating surprises. National Research Council, National Academies of Sciences press.

Sherwood  S et al (2010) .An adaptability limit to climate change due to heat stress. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science.

WWF (2021) Sustainable seafood overview. World Wildlife Fund.

 

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Why the world can’t run on biodiesel from algae

Preface. This is an article I published in a peer-reviewed journal, and it’s also similar to “Chapter 25 Biodiesel from Algae” in my book Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy.

And within this post is a section on algae and ocean plankton: Germany National Academy of Sciences report: Don’t use biofuels which says:

“Current life cycle analyses indicate that the energy return on investment (EROI) is less than one for algae.  Nor is ocean plankton a potential fuel.  Although the gross primary production of the oceans is similar to the magnitude on land, the difference between the amount of biomass in each is astounding.  Land plants have orders of magnitude more tonnes of Carbon bound up in biomass on land is 650,000,000,000 but the ocean only 3,000,000,000.  This is because ocean phytoplankton die so fast from zooplankton consumption and other causes, which makes oceans unsuitable as a source of large-scale biofuel production

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 & 278, Peak Prosperity, Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Friedemann A J (2019) Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels. Arch Pet Environ Biotechnol 4: 155. DOI: 10.29011/2574-7614.100055

Since algae can produce many times more biomass per square foot than terrestrial plants, algal biofuels hold a great deal of promise.

Importantly, they are best suited for making biodiesel, the essential fuel. Ships, trucks, and trains are the backbone of civilization, and they depend on diesel.

We know how to grow algae, though there are no successful commercial fuel production facilities. The vast majority of commercial algal products are used for nutritional supplements, cosmetics, and other products.

The main reason fuels aren’t being produced is the problem of “pond crash.”

In practice, about a third of the time all of a pond’s algae die within three months [1]. It doesn’t take much head scratching to figure out why: The pond is wide open to invading algae predators via wind, rain, snow, insects, migratory waterfowl, and animals. Among the predators are zooplanktons. Each one can eat 200 algae a minute and crash a pond in less than 2 days [2].

They’re not the only marauders. There are also killer viruses, fungi, diseases, amoebas. And open ponds are ideal breeding territory for mosquitoes, which prey not only on us, but also on algae.

Algae are Cinderella creatures. They are easily killed or grow too slowly from too much heat, cold, evaporation, pH level, saline level, UV, lack of nutrients, or too much of a nutrient [3].

Nor will just any algae do. For algal biofuels, the goal is to use obese algae with at least 60% fat to make as much biodiesel as possible for the least cost. But usually tougher, leaner, faster reproducing algae get into the pond and outcompete the plump ones.

If only a microscopic border patrol could keep them out. Why not build walls around the ponds! Oh wait, there are walls. Screens haven’t worked, nor pesticides, since microscopic predators develop immunity quickly because they reproduce in just a day or two.

If algal biofuels are the future, then grains and oilseeds are the current biofuel feedstock. It’s clear that terrestrial biomass doesn’t scale up enough to run the world on biofuels. In Europe, it has been estimated that 2 billion metric tons of grains and oilseeds are grown a year, but that 15 billion metric tons, 7.5 times as much, would be needed to replace oil with biofuels [5]. Currently only 15,000 tons a year of algae are produced [4].

Compared to current biofuels, algae are tremendously expensive to produce, ranging from $719 to $3,000 per dry ton, versus switch grass, corn stover, and other land biomass costing $30 to $60 per dry ton [4].

Where’s the land?

The ponds for growing algae have to be huge, about 1200 acres of very flat land (less than a 1% grade) containing 10-acre or more ponds for economies of scale, ideally near a city to reduce the cost of delivery. This land ideally has impermeable soil below to reduce the energy required to line and seal the ponds and prevent seepage of toxins into the groundwater.

Ponds also need to be large because they can’t be deep, since sunlight doesn’t penetrate algal growths for more than a couple of inches [6]. Too much sun is also harmful, since algae can suffer oxidative damage. Many species protect themselves by inhibiting photosynthesis, which constrains growth [3].

Algae feed on CO2, which must be pumped into the ponds. A huge cost for algae farming is CO2, up to 25% of overall costs. Yet there are very few industries emitting excess CO2 that also have 1200 acres of very flat land nearby, nor wastewater plants to provide water for that matter [4].

The fairy-tale princess may have been overly sensitive to a pea, but algae are even more delicate. A proper berth for them would need at least 2800 hours of sunshine per year, since sunlight is the most important factor in algal growth. That much sun exists in only eight states. There’d ideally be 40 inches of rain and low evaporation rates, not likely in Arizona and the other suitable arid states. In addition, the ponds do best when the average temperature is 55 F or more, at least 200 days are above freezing, there is little wind so that predators, dust, and sand aren’t swept into ponds, and heavy rain, flooding, hail, tornadoes, or hurricanes are rare.

There is competition for the use of flat lands. Algal ponds compete with agriculture and recreation, as well as solar facilities, which can produce far more energy than algae over their lifespan on considerably less land [7,8].

Where’s the water?

Large scale algal biofuel production is likely to require as much water nationally as large scale agriculture [3]. Wigmosta (2011) [7] estimated that to produce 220 billion liters of algal biofuels – that would equate to 28% of U.S. transportation fuel – the evaporative loss from ponds would be 312 trillion liters per year. That is about twice the quantity of water used for irrigated agriculture in the U.S. [9].

An advantage of algae over land plants is that the water can be saline, brackish, wastewater and low-quality. The problem is that the water being evaporated is fresh, and continuing to use low-quality water to refresh the pond can introduce and concentrate killer microbes, heavy metals, chemicals and concentrates salts, toxins, and other harmful materials [3]. This would also render any co-products from algal sludge unsuitable for animal feed. If wastewater is to be used, there are not many wastewater treatment plants with thousands of acres of cheap flat land nearby to build ponds on.

Carbon dioxide problems coming and going

Unlike plants, which can make use of CO2 in the air, commercial algae production requires concentrated CO2 because not enough CO2 from the air penetrates the water [3,10,11]. Coal-fired power plants would seem to be an ideal source for this CO2. Algae, however, can only use CO2 when the sun is shining, and not at night. Thus, in terms of the hope of using algal ponds to limit greenhouse gas emissions from coal power plants and other CO2 emitting industries, algal ponds would not be able to offset more than 20-30% of the total power plant emissions [12].

There’s another CO2 issue with algal ponds. Ninety percent of the CO2 pumped into an algal pond will bubble up to the surface and into the air, resulting in substantially higher net emissions from algal biofuels than petroleum, according to several studies [3,6,8]. The 2007 renewable fuel standard mandated that only biofuels which lowered greenhouse gas emissions 20% or more beyond petroleum emissions were qualified to be added to gasoline or diesel.

Microscopic algae are as voracious as food crops

The amount of nutrients required to grow enough algae to produce just 5% of transportation fuel could be as high as required by large scale agriculture [3,8]. To produce just 5% of the transportation fuels used in the United States, an algae with an oil content of 20% would need more nitrogen than the U.S. consumes today on crops, because algae can’t fix nitrogen like many land crops. This same quantity of algal biofuels also would require phosphorus equivalent to up to half of what is currently consumed by U.S. agriculture [10]. There is a danger of phosphorous depletion as soon as 2080 to 2100 [13,14].

Recycling algae to get the nitrogen and phosphorous back isn’t easy. It’s also expensive and energy intensive to remove phosphorus and nitrogen from the dead algae after their oil has been removed to make biodiesel, so 20-40% cannot be recovered.

Where’s the energy?

The main reason to make algal biodiesel is to provide a substitute for petroleum diesel. Other metrics such as CO2 sequestration, byproducts, and GHG emissions are not as relevant. All that matters is that the EROI (Energy return on investment) is greater than 1, or perhaps as high as 10 or more to maintain our current level of civilization [15-17]. An EROI of 1 or less is not unsustainable.

An absolute showstopper is the very negative EROI of algal biofuels: far more fossil fuel energy is needed to build and grow the algae than the energy contained in the algal fuel. The energy for water management alone is seven times more than the algal biodiesel created, and water management is just a fraction of the overall energy inputs [18].

Like corn ethanol, estimates of EROI range from negative to positive [8], and again like ethanol, proponents who find positive results rely on adding the energy of the algal sludge byproduct. The NRC (2012) [8] reports that Sander (2010) [19] gave an “energy credit for using algae residuals 10 times larger than the energy content of the produced biodiesel.” Yet even then the EROI was a trivial 1.77 to 3.33. Other studies found that it takes three to eight times as much fossil fuel energy inputs as the energy contained in the algal biofuel. Closed bioreactors can use up to 57 times more fossil fuel energy [8].

Sorry to let the air out of your balloon

If there are any incorrigible optimists left reading this, consider a subset of the steps and inputs needed to make algal biofuel. I’ve summarized the process below, and Capitalized Each Action that requires fossil fuel energy.

Algae need light to survive and grow. To get adequate light, the pond can only be a few inches deep, so ponds have to be large, which adds to construction and land costs. Water needs to be Pumped into and between ponds. The algae at the top hog most of the sunlight, so the water must be constantly Stirred, Pumped, and Circulated. On a hot day, an inch or more water evaporates, so more water must be Pumped In. After a pond crash the pond must be Thoroughly Cleaned. CO2 must be Collected, Compressed, and Pumped into pipelines to deliver CO2 to the facility via tubes at the bottom of ponds, which can get clogged, requiring Regular Cleaning. Agitators, Aerators, and Fountains must run constantly to distribute nutrients and CO2 and to discourage mosquitos from breeding.

A biofuel facility is made of cement, plastic, pumps, centrifuges, chemicals, filters, pond liners, CO2 waste treatment facilities, drying areas, fuel processing, transport, and storage infrastructure. Nitrogen, phosphorus, and other nutrients must be Produced, Transported, and Distributed in the ponds. Treating the wastewater requires Decontamination, Disinfection, and Removal of heavy metals. Water must be Heated or Cooled to maintain an optimal temperature. It also takes energy to Monitor and Keep pH levels, saline levels, nutrient, and water levels at optimal levels.

To make the algal fuel, algae are Pumped through each of these steps: Harvest, Filter, Sieved, Dry, Extract oil. Recycle nutrients, Dispose of wastewater. Getting the water out is a huge part of the energy used: algae are single cells suspended in water at concentrations below 1% solids, whereas land plants are often over 40% solids. The energy to Concentrate and Dry the algae commercially is far greater than the energy contained in the algae [3]. Extract the oil in the algae. Transform this oil into biodiesel (many steps not listed here). Finally, Store, Transport, Blend, Deliver, and Dispense algal biodiesel.

Protect algae from crashes by sheltering them in photo bioreactors

You might think algae could be protected from predators in the long glass or plastic tubes of a photo bioreactor, but microscopic creatures can also get into them and form bacterial biofilms that slow down water flow and reduce the light. However much trouble ponds may be, photo bioreactors are far more problematic and expensive, have never been scaled up to a commercial level, cost more, and use far more energy than ponds. They can’t be sterilized and need to be cleaned, they need energy intensive temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, and CO2 controls. They are far from being commercial. Bottom line: they require far more energy than open ponds and studies have found all of them to have a negative energy return on invested [3,8].

Conclusion

Algae may be green, but they’re not clean. Discharging untreated water from an algal pond can lead to eutrophication of waterways, contaminate groundwater, salinize fresh water, harm wildlife, and be a source of heavy metals, herbicides, algal toxins, and industrial effluents. Untreated water may escape in a flood, earthquake, tornado, high rainfall, and when the pond leaks or breaks. If a foreign or bio-engineered algal species escapes, it could threaten local and regional ecosystems by displacing native species and causing dense algal blooms that block sunlight.

Algae also compete with agriculture for very flat land.

There are simply too many showstoppers. Algae are greedy little bastards, needing more water, nitrogen, and phosphorous than corn or soybeans, placing unsustainable demands on energy, water, and nutrients [8].

Clearly algal fuels are far from being commercial, unless you can get the military to pay for it that is.  In 2009, the Pentagon spent $424 a gallon on algae oil [20].

Scientists, entrepreneurs, and the U.S. government have been trying to make algal biofuels for over 45 years, ever since the 1970 oil shocks, and have studied over 3,000 kinds of algae for their biofuel potential. But after decades of research, the Department of Energy gave up and stopped funding in 1995 [21].

And don’t be fooled by the recent research, it’s focused on cleaning up CO2 from power plants to lower greenhouse emissions [4], not to provide biofuels to keep trucks running [22], which are absolutely essential for our fossil-fueled civilization.

For more details than my overview see this post: Department of Energy algal biofuels roadmap: A summary

References

  1. Park JBK, Craggs RJ, Shilton AN (2011) Wastewater treatment high rate algal ponds for biofuel production. Bioresource Technology 102: 35-42.
  2. SNL (2017) Multilab project seeks toughest algae strains for biofuel. Sandia National Laboratories Biomass magazine.
  3. USDOE (2010) National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
  4. USDOE (2016) 2016 Billion-ton report. Advancing domestic resources for a thriving bio economy. U.S. Department of energy.
  5. Wald ML (2012) Another Path to Biofuels. New York Times.
  6. Wigmosta MS, Coleman AM, Skaggs RJ, Huesemann MH, Lane LJ (2011) National microalgae biofuel production potential and resource demand. Water Resources Research 47.
  7. NRC (2012) Sustainable Development of Algal Biofuels. National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C.
  8. USGS (2010) Mineral Commodity Summaries 2010. US Geological Survey.
  9. NAS (2012) America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation 2009. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering.
  10. Williams PJ, Laurens LM (2010) Microalgae as biodiesel and biomass feedstocks: Review and analysis of the biochemistry, energetics and economics. Energy and Environmental Science 3: 554-590.
  11. Brune DE, Lundquist TJ, Benemann JR (2009) Microalgal biomass for greenhouse gas reductions: Potential for replacement of fossil-fuels and animal feeds. Journal of Environmental Engineering 135: 1136-1144.
  12. Smil V (2000) Phosphorus in the Environment: Natural Flows and Human Interferences. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 25: 53-88.
  13. Vaccari DA (2009) Phosphorus: A Looming Crisis. Scientific American 300: 54-59.
  14. Murphy CF, Allen DT (2011) Energy-Water Nexus for Mass Cultivation of Algae. Environmental Science & Technology 45: 5861-5868.
  15. Sander K, Murthy GS (2010) Life cycle analysis of algae biodiesel. International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 15: 704-714.
  16. Cardwell D (2012) Military spend on biofuels draws fire. New York Times.
  17. Richard T (2010) Challenges in scaling up biofuels infrastructure. . Science 329: 793-796.
  18. Sheehan, J et al (1998) A look back at the U.S. Department of Energy’s aquatic species program: biodiesel from algae. U.S. Department of Energy, National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
  19. Friedemann A (2015) When trucks stop running: energy and the future of transportation. Springer.
  20. Lambert, JG, Hall CAS (2014) Energy, EROI and quality of life. Energy Policy 64: 153–167.
  21. Murphy, DJ, Hall C, Dale M, Cleveland, C. 2011. Order from chaos: a preliminary protocol for determining the EROI of fuels. Sustainability 10: 1888–1907.
  22. Weissbach DG, Ruprecht G, Huke A, Czerski K, Gottlieb S, Hussein A (2013) Energy intensities, EROIs, and energy payback times of electricity generating power plants. Energy 52: 210–221.

 

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Jellyfish in the news

Preface.  As we overfish, eutrophy and acidify the ocean with fertilizer and pesticides we risk a tipping point where jellyfish dominate the oceans and fish are scarce.

Related: Why and how Jellyfish are taking over the world

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Javidpour J (2020) Cannibalism makes invasive comb jelly, Mnemiopsis leidyi, resilient to unfavourable conditions. Communications Biology.

An invasive comb jellyfish is able to survive by eating its babies to survive long and nutrient deprived winters.  This study also addresses wider questions of cannibalism in the animal kingdom. Cannibalism has been recorded among over 1,500 species, including humans, chimpanzees, squirrels, fish, and dragonfly larvae.  And it is especially common in aquatic systems for unknown reasons.

CNN (2020) Beach ball-sized jellyfish capable of damaging boats spotted in South Carolina

Wildlife officials in South Carolina are asking boaters to keep their eyes peeled for an invasive species of jellyfish that can grow to beach ball size and are big enough to damage boats and fishing equipment. They can get stuck in boats’ water intake lines, gobble up fish and shellfish eggs, and put a strain on fishing nets when they get scooped up and difficult to remove from the net.

Vince G (2012) In the last decade enormous plagues of jellyfish have been taking over the seas. And it is our fault. BBC.

Reactors at a Scottish nuclear power station have been shut down after enormous numbers of jellyfish were found in the sea water entering the plant. Huge annual jellyfish blooms have been cropping up across the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Yellow and Japan Seas. 

Is this a bizarre blip in the continually changing balance of oceanic life, or the beginnings of a new state change in marine diversity? Or in other words: in the Anthropocene, will the seas be filled with slime?

If they are, we face some serious problems. Last year alone, nuclear power plants in Scotland, Japan, Israel and Florida, and also a desalination plant in Israel, were forced to shutdown because jellyfish were clogging the water inlets. The entire Irish salmon industry was wiped out in 2007 after a plague of billions of mauve stingers – covering an area of 10 sq miles (26 sq km) and 35ft (11m) deep – attacked the fish cages. Two years later, a fish farm in Tunisia lost a year’s production of sea bream and sea bass after jellyfish invasions.

Perhaps the most extraordinary blooms have been those occurring in waters off Japan. There, refrigerator-sized gelatinous monsters called Nomuras, weighing 485lb (220 kg) and measuring 6.5ft (2m) in diameter, have swarmed the Japan Sea annually since 2002, clogging fishing nets, overturning trawlers and devastating coastal livelihoods. These assaults have cost the Japanese fisheries industry billions of yen in losses.

Human factor. Marine ecologists are warning of worse to come, and pointing the tentacle of blame at us. Some researchers fear that human changes to the marine environment may be leading to a tipping point in which jellyfish will rule the oceans, much as they did hundreds of millions of years ago in pre-Cambrian times. In 2009, Australian marine scientist Anthony Richardson and his colleagues published a research paper entitled The jellyfish joyride, in which they warn that if we do not act to curb current blooms, we will experience runaway populations that will cause open oceanic ecosystems to flip from ones dominated by fish biodiversity to ones dominated by jellyfish.

The problem is that no one really knows what causes the blooms. Some believe that population explosions result from overfishing of their dining competitors and predators, which include more than 100 species of fish, and animals such as turtles. However, other researchers point out that overfishing also hits jellyfish by reducing their food availability.

Either way, what is clear is that jellyfish are simply better prepared than other marine life for many of the ways humans are changing the ocean environment, such as warmer temperatures, salinity changes, ocean acidification and pollution. In this sense, humans might be jellyfishes’ best friend.

For instance, pollution can cause algal blooms that reduce the water’s oxygen content. This hits muscular swimmers like fish hard, but jellyfish can cope far better with these conditions.

Warmer water encourages jellyfish reproduction, and they can also better tolerate population crashes because their reproductive strategies are complex and adaptable. Some species of jelly can clone themselves, whereas others reproduce sexually but also have a polyp stage – like corals, with which they are related – that allows large populations of immature individuals to multiply while waiting for the right conditions to mature into adulthood. In these ways, they can withstand impacts that devastate other marine species.

Even the coastal infrastructure we build seems to be working to their advantage. Rob Condon, a marine scientist at Dauphin Island Sea Lab in Alabama, says that the pontoons, piers and even drilling platforms help provide anchors for jellyfish polyps, encouraging local population explosions.

Slippery customers

But Condon, who set up a global jellyfish database initiative (the wonderfully named JEDI) to monitor blooms, says that the “jellygeddon” scenario envisioned by Richardson and others is unlikely. Jellyfish blooms are nothing new, says Condon, “4,000 years ago in Ancient Crete, they used to paint jelly blooms on their pottery, and even in the 1920s, media were reporting “unprecedented” numbers of moon jellyfish in Monterey Bay.”

Gathering data on jellyfish is notoriously difficult. Although 70% of the planet is covered by ocean, we really only have a hazy idea about most of the life outside of coastal or estuarine zones. Jellyfish, which inhabit open oceans and deep waters, are still an enigma in many ways. Monitoring individuals and blooms cannot be done by satellite because they are so transparent, have very low biomass, and often occupy waters below the optical depth for satellite penetration. Even finding polyps and larvae in sea grass is tricky. 

Extreme measures

Dealing with blooms where they do turn up is tricky.  Even if you trap a bloom, what do you do with all those jellyfish? Japanese fishermen initially tried chopping them up in the waters, only to discover that the Nomura’s jellyfish defense strategy is to release its sperm and eggs, thus propagating the problem. In Spain, special jelly patrols were buried them in landfill.

But we don’t know what environmental effects destroying blooms could have. Jellyfish are an important food source for apex predators, and if we start tinkering with the natural bloom system, we don’t know what the ripple-down effects may be. They may even help mix and fertilize the world’s oceans, some researchers think.

Perhaps one solution is to sustainably exploit their abundance. Jellyfish do have their uses: in collagen preparations (to treat rheumatoid arthritis, for example), they are popular attractions in aquaria, and their fluorescent proteins have been instrumental in biomedical discoveries.

And, of course, they are a source of food. In Japan and other parts of Asia, jellyfish are dried and chopped into noodle-like strips to be added to soups, for example. Some entrepreneurial Japanese are even making vanilla-and-jellyfish ice cream. Jellyfish are 80% protein and very low in fat, although the high sodium content probably outweighs their health benefits.

So… jellyfish and chips anyone?

Richardson AJ et al (2009) The jellyfish joyride: causes, consequences and management responses to a more gelatinous future. Trends in Ecology and Evolution.

Human-induced stresses of overfishing, eutrophication, climate change, translocation and habitat modification appear to be promoting jellyfish (pelagic cnidarian and ctenophore) blooms to the detriment of other marine organisms. Mounting evidence suggests that the structure of pelagic ecosystems can change rapidly from one that is dominated by fish (that keep jellyfish in check through competition or predation) to a less desirable gelatinous state, with lasting ecological, economic and social consequences.

Jellyfish outbreaks can have many deleterious consequences, including losses in tourist revenue through beach closures and even the death of bathers; power outages following the blockage of cooling intakes at coastal power plants; blocking of alluvial sediment suction in diamond mining operations; burst fishing nets and contaminated catches; killing of farmed fish; reduction in commercial fish abundance through competition and predation; and as probable intermediate vectors of various fish parasites.

 

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Why EV Batteries aren’t being recycled

Preface.  Talk to your typical capitalist / environmentalist and they will both agree that we will never run out of anything because we can recycle.  But we aren’t.  Especially since it’s cheaper to buy newly mined metals than to recycle them. Here’s a summary of the challenges for EV batteries:

  1. Batteries are not designed to be recycled
  2. Batteries vary widely in construction and chemistry, making it hard to design efficient recycling systems
  3. Cut too deep or the wrong place of a cell and it can combust, release toxic fumes and short-circuit
  4. The technology of recycling batteries has a long way to go. So far just single cells yielding tens of grams of cathode powders has been done.
  5. Cathodes have the most valuable metals (i.e. cobalt and nickel), but as batteries evolve, future cathodes may be made of materials of no worth for buyers
  6. Lithium is finite but not recycled because it’s cheap
  7. Other metals are needles in a haystack, too hard to find and recover
  8. It can take 2 hours to crack open a battery and dismantle them
  9. The glue and polyurethane cement holding components in place requires toxic solvents harmful to workers
  10. High cost of transporting combustible batteries

In addition, it is hard to separate metals from electronic devices, and even impossible if they are an alloy or embedded with other metals that chemicals, heat, pressure and other techniques can’t separate out.

With peak world oil production having occurred in 2018, energy to mine and recycle will get increasingly expensive at the same time as ores continue to decline in quality, requiring ever more energy to obtain.

The limits to mineral extraction are not limits of quantity but limits of energy. Extracting them takes energy. The more dispersed and low quality the ore is, the more energy required. Not enough energy is produced to mine anything but conventional ores, so forget about filtering trillions of gallons of seawater to get gold or uranium.  Long before fossils “run out”, if oil peaks (which it did in 2018), then game over, fossil fuels are necessary for the extraction, transport, smelting and crushing of ores, and the easy high-grade ores have already been mined, leaving crummy ore and expensive declining fossils to extract it (Bardi 2014).

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com Women in ecology  author of 2021 Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy best price here; 2015 When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Podcasts: Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity

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Morse I (2021) With millions of electric vehicles set to hit the road, scientists are seeking better battery recycling methods. Science 372: 780-783

If it ends up in a landfill, its cells can release problematic toxins, including heavy metals. And recycling the battery can be a hazardous business, warns materials scientist Dana Thompson of the University of Leicester. Cut too deep into a Tesla cell, or in the wrong place, and it can short-circuit, combust, and release toxic fumes.

That’s just one of the many problems confronting researchers trying to tackle an emerging problem: how to recycle the millions of electric vehicle (EV) batteries that manufacturers expect to produce over the next few decades. Current EV batteries “are really not designed to be recycled,” says Thompson, a research fellow at the Faraday Institution, a research center focused on battery issues in the United Kingdom.  Several carmakers have said they plan to phase out combustion engines within a few decades, and industry analysts predict at least 145 million EVs will be on the road by 2030, up from just 11 million last year. “People are starting to realize this is an issue.”

 

Recycling won’t be easy.

 

Batteries differ widely in chemistry and construction, which makes it difficult to create efficient recycling systems. And the cells are often held together with tough glues that make them difficult to take apart. That has contributed to an economic obstacle: It’s often cheaper for battery makers to buy freshly mined metals than to use recycled materials.

 

EV batteries are constructed a bit like nested dolls. Typically, a main pack holds several modules, each of which is constructed from numerous smaller cells. Inside each cell, lithium atoms move through an electrolyte between a graphite anode and a cathode sheet composed of a metal oxide. Batteries are usually defined by the metals in the cathode. There are three main types: nickel-cobalt-aluminum, iron-phosphate, and nickel-manganese-cobalt.

 

Now, recyclers primarily target metals in the cathode, such as cobalt and nickel, that fetch high prices. (Lithium and graphite are too cheap for recycling to be economical.) But because of the small quantities, the metals are like needles in a haystack: hard to find and recover.

 

To extract those needles, recyclers rely on two techniques, known as pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy. The more common is pyrometallurgy, in which recyclers first mechanically shred the cell and then burn it, leaving a charred mass of plastic, metals, and glues. At that point, they can use several methods to extract the metals, including further burning. “Pyromet is essentially treating the battery as if it were an ore” straight from a mine, Gaines says. Hydrometallurgy, in contrast, involves dunking battery materials in pools of acid, producing a metal-laden soup. Sometimes the two methods are combined.

 

Each has advantages and downsides. Pyrometallurgy, for example, doesn’t require the recycler to know the battery’s design or composition, or even whether it is completely discharged, in order to move ahead safely. But it is energy intensive. Hydrometallurgy can extract materials not easily obtained through burning, but it can involve chemicals that pose health risks. And recovering the desired elements from the chemical soup can be difficult, although researchers are experimenting with compounds that promise to dissolve certain battery metals but leave others in a solid form, making them easier to recover. For example, Thompson has identified one candidate, a mixture of acids and bases called a deep eutectic solvent, that dissolves everything but nickel.

 

Both processes produce extensive waste and emit greenhouse gases, studies have found. And the business model can be shaky: Most operations depend on selling recovered cobalt to stay in business, but battery makers are trying to shift away from that relatively expensive metal. If that happens, recyclers could be left trying to sell piles of “dirt,” says materials scientist Rebecca Ciez of Purdue University.

 

So far, direct recycling experiments have only focused on single cells and yielded just tens of grams of cathode powders.

 

Given the rapidly changing battery market, Gaines notes, cathodes manufactured today might not be able to find a future buyer. Recyclers would be “recovering a dinosaur. No one will want the product.”

 

Another challenge is efficiently cracking open EV batteries. Nissan’s rectangular Leaf battery module can take 2 hours to dismantle. Tesla’s cells are unique not only for their cylindrical shape, but also for the almost indestructible polyurethane cement that holds them together.

 

Engineers might be able to build robots that could speed battery disassembly, but sticky issues remain even after you get inside the cell, researchers note. That’s because more glues are used to hold the anodes, cathodes, and other components in place. One solvent that recyclers use to dissolve cathode binders is so toxic that the European Union has introduced restrictions on its use, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency determined last year that it poses an “unreasonable risk” to workers.

Another problem to be solved is who should bear primary responsibility for making recycling happen? “Is it my responsibility because I bought [an EV] or is it the manufacturer’s responsibility because they made it and they’re selling it?”

Recycling researchers say effective battery recycling will require more than just technological advances. The high cost of transporting combustible items long distances or across borders can discourage recycling. As a result, placing recycling centers in the right places could have a “massive impact,” Harper says. “But there’s going to be a real challenge in systems integration and bringing all these different bits of research together.”

Related posts (recycling, peak minerals)

References

Bardi U. 2014. Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet. Chelsea Green.

 

 

 

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QAnon and Witchcraft. Hard to tell them apart

Preface.  I just read Schiff’s book “The Witches: Salem, 1692”.  As I read it, I kept thinking that these Christian witch killers weren’t much different from QAnon believers, who are also mostly Christians (evangelists).

I’m not the first to think this. Below are two articles comparing QAnon and witchcraft.  Both kinds of insanity result in deaths and violence. At the January 6th Insurrection, ABC news reports that “QAnon emerges as recurring theme of criminal cases tied to US Capitol siege. Some of the most prominent and violent offenders were supporters, officials say.”  Other QAnon killers include (more here)

  • Pizzagate – In 2016 a gunman walks into a pizza shop in Washington, D.C., because he was told it was a front for a child sex-trafficking ring
  • Mob Boss Killer – In 2019 a 24-year-old QAnon believer killed a mob boss in Staten Island because he was convinced Donald Trump wanted him to.
  • Brother Lizard – In 2019 a 26-year-old QAnon believer killed his brother who he claimed to be a lizard, with a sword

QAnon began in the dark corners of Internet message boards and chat rooms. It posits that the federal government has been infiltrated and subverted by a cabal of Satan-worshipping pedophiles bent on destroying American democracy and imposing a global government.

The Salem outbreak began because of fears that children were being afflicted by invisible tormenters, much like the victims of QAnon’s alleged child trafficking ring. Like those who prosecuted witches at Salem, QAnon’s supporters believe that children — the most innocent and vulnerable among us — are imperiled by malevolent, unseen forces. The inability to come up with the physical evidence necessary to expose the conspiracy does not prove its falsehood, only the craftiness of its perpetrators.

The Salem witch trials came to an end because some influential people in Massachusetts finally worked up the courage to speak out against them. Thomas Brattle, a Boston merchant who questioned the methods used to prosecute the witchcraft cases, circulated a letter among his peers attacking the court’s proceedings. Increase Mather, Boston’s leading minister, did something similar, sharing with other clergy a sermon he wrote called “Cases of Conscience,” in which he concluded, “It were better that Ten Suspected witches should escape, than that one Innocent Person should be Condemned.”  But leading Republicans, least of all President Trump, have been reluctant to do the same with QAnon.

In some ways this is not a new conspiracy. In the last version, 200 innocent people went to jail and lost their careers, businesses, and families after being accused of being satanic cult baby killers in the 1980s and 1990s while Catholic priests were getting away with raping children. The Salem Witch Hunt lasted months, the  satanic baby killing cult trials a lot longer — they lasted a decade (i.e. Kern County child abuse cases, McMartin preschool trial, Ricky Kasso, West Memphis 3, Little Rascals Day Care Center, Oak Hill satanic ritual abuse trial, Fells Acres Day Care Center preschool trial, and Pace memorandum). A third of Americans saw Geraldo Rivera’s TV show where he estimated that there are over 1 million Satanists in America linked in a highly organized secret network dedicated to satanic ritual child abuse and satanic murders.  Americans agonized for three centuries over the Salem witch trial, but there hasn’t been a peep of apology or remorse from Christian evangelicals or fundamentalists for putting ruining the lives of 200 people. It continues, with QAnon and satanic ritual abuse conferences (Kurt Anderson 2017 Fantasyland: How America Went Haywire: A 500-Year History)

Here’s some background on witchcraft from Schiff. Crazy sure, but they had an excuse — most witchcraft trials happened in the dark ages before science and the scientific method. Today’s right-wing Christians and conspiracy mongers have no excuse, they embrace superstition and evil ideas with no basis knowingly and willingly.

Witches had troubled New England since its founding. They drowned oxen, caused cattle to leap four feet from the ground, tossed skillets into the fire, tipped hay from wagons, enchanted beer, sent pails crashing and kettles dancing. They launched apples, chairs, embers, candlesticks, dung through the air. They sent forth disembodied creatures, in one case a man’s head connected to a white cat tail by several feet of nothingness—a Cheshire cat centuries before Lewis Carroll. (It should be said that there were a fair number of taverns in the colony. Salem town was particularly well served, with 15 taverns, or one establishment for every 80 men, women, and children.)

Witches managed to be two places at once or emerge dry from a wet road. They walked soundlessly over loose boards. They arrived too quickly, divined the contents of unopened letters, spun suspiciously fine linen, cultured uncommonly good cheese, knew secrets for bleaching cloth, smelled figs in someone else’s pocket, survived falls down stairs. Witches could be muttering, contentious malcontents or they could be inexplicably strong and unaccountably smart. Indeed they often committed the capital offense of having more wit than their neighbors, as her former minister had said of the third Massachusetts

Compared to their European counterparts, New England witches were a tame bunch, their powers more ordinary than occult. They specialized in disordering the barn and kitchen. When the New England witch suspended natural laws, those laws tended to be agricultural ones. She had no talent for storms or weather of any kind; she neither called down plague nor burned Boston. Continental witches had more fun. They walked on their hands. They made pregnancies last three years. They turned their enemies’ faces upside down and backward. They flew internationally. They rode hyenas to bacchanals deep in the forest; they stole babies and penises. They employed hedgehog familiars. The Massachusetts witch’s familiars—which she suckled, in a maternal relationship—were unexotic by comparison. She did not venture very far afield. Even in her transgressions she was puritanical. She rarely enjoyed sexual congress with the devil. When she visited men in the night she seemed interested mostly in wringing their necks.

The witch’s ultimate target, the point of all those pricks and pinches, was the soul rather than the body. And despite her prodigious powers, she did not break out of jail, something many less advantaged New Englanders managed with ease.

Among the abundant proofs of her existence—where proofs were needed—was the biblical injunction against her. “Thou shalt not suffer a witch to live,” commands Exodus, although there was some debate about that term; in Hebrew it more accurately denotes “poisoner”.  Descended from Celtic horned gods and Teutonic folklore, Pan’s distant ancestor the devil was not yet on the scene. He arrived with the New Testament, a volume notably free of witches. Nothing in the Bible connects the two, a job that fell, much later, to the church.

The witch as Salem conceived her materialized in the 13th century as sorcery and heresy moved closer together; she came wholly into her own as a popular myth yielded to a popular madness. In 1326 Pope John XXII charged his inquisitors with the task of clearing the land of devil worshippers; the next two centuries proved transformative. When she was not being burned alive, the witch adopted two practices under the Inquisition. In her Continental incarnation she attended lurid orgies, the elements of which coalesced early in the 15th century, in the western Alps. At the same time, probably in Germany, she began to fly, sometimes on a broom. Also as the magician molted into the witch, the witch—previously a unisex term—became a woman, understood to be more susceptible to satanic overtures, inherently more wicked. The most reckless volume on the subject, the Malleus Maleficarum, or Witch Hammer, summoned a shelf of classical authorities to prove its point: “When a woman thinks alone, she thinks evil.” As is often the case with questions of women and power, elucidations here verged on the paranormal. Weak as she was to devilish temptations, a woman could emerge dangerously, insatiably commanding.

As to what country engaged in the greatest hunts, the competition is fierce. Germany was slow to prosecute, afterward fanatical. A Lorrain inquisitor boasted that he had cleared the land of 900 witches in 15 years.  An Italian bested him with a thousand deaths in a year. One German town managed 400 in a single day. Between 1580 and 1680, Great Britain dispensed with no fewer than 4,000 witches. Several years after Salem, at least five accused witches perished in Scotland on the testimony of an 11-year-old girl. Essex County, England, from which many Massachusetts Bay settlers hailed, proved especially prosecution-happy, though it convicted at a steady rate rather than in the flash-flood manner of Salem.

English witches were hanged while French ones were burned.

When the colonists established a legal code, the first capital crime was idolatry. The second was witchcraft. “If any man or woman be a witch, that is, hath or consulteth with a familiar spirit, they shall be put to death,” read the 1641 body of laws, citing Exodus, Leviticus, and Deuteronomy. Blasphemy came next, followed by murder, poisoning, and bestiality.

Early New England witchcraft cases included no broomsticks, satanic gatherings, or convulsing girls. Rather they featured bewitched pigs and roving livestock, proprieties trampled, properties trespassed. They centered on the overly attentive acquaintance or the supplicant who, like Sarah Good, was turned away. Most involved some stubborn, calcified knot of vexed, small-town relations.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Morris B (2020) Conspiracy Theory Origins: How Pro-Trump QAnon Is Eerily Similar To The Salem Witch Hunt.Newsone.com

This stuff is scary, but history can bring some solace because it can give you a hint to what’s to come.

From February 1692 to May 1693 hundreds of people (mostly teenage women) in colonial Massachusetts were accused of witchcraft, with no basis in fact or reality. “The Hunt” led to the actual Salem Witch Trials; a time in which hundreds of people were jailed, and many were even publicly hanged or executed (Yes people died, women and children. Don’t read over that lightly). There was never any proof of actual witchcraft. Most of the persecuted women were of lower socioeconomic status and easy scapegoats to give the conspiracy someone to blame. It’s the first known case of mass hysteria this country has ever seen, and if I can be frank, it’s weird! The fact that something so ridiculous could have seeped into the minds of so many people may seem archaic, but American history could be doomed to repeat itself.
People make false accusations every day, but the accusations become problematic when the masses start to believe them. During the Salem Witch Hunt, leaders used false accusations to rally their tribes into accepting the murder of women and children. The lies gave some sense to the things they didn’t have answers for. That is the same exact thought process that allows a QAnon believer to accept that a cabal of Satan-worshiping pedophiles running a global child sex-trafficking ring are plotting against President Donald Trump. The absurd ideas mean less than the accusations themselves; and for the tribe, it only makes their argument stronger. In 1692 Salem, if a woman was called a witch by more than one witness, she must have been a witch. Now, the arm of the internet gives one tweet the power of a thousand witnesses, and false accusations can quickly become the truth in the eye of public opinion. Truth is then lost and the false accusations win.
And it still oozes it today. Back in 1692, religious extremism was more our cup of tea. The Puritans, who were very religious folks, came to settle in the northern Americas in the early 1600s. They believed in the active existence of the devil and demons, and that spirits could possess humans and force them to do their bidding. Puritan pastors regularly performed exorcisms and oversaw many of the executions in the Salem Witch Trials. Done all in the name of the Lord. This type of religious extremism is a staple in the belief system of QAnon. Their tribe consists mostly of evangelical Christians, who already have a strong religious belief system. Mix that with the isolationism due to COVID-19, and false accusations circled around the tribe, violence is next to come. Just like in 1692, now we have violence acted out by religious extremists who isolated their beliefs and were tricked into believing false accusations.

Loxton D (2020) QAnon Is Just a Warmed Over Witch Panic — and It’s Also Very Dangerous. Skeptic.com

As 2020 nears its end and the COVID-19 pandemic continues, a rapidly growing far right conspiracy theory increasingly dominates headlines. QAnon is a crowd-sourced online mythology inspired by cryptic anonymous internet posts appearing since 2017 from an unknown figure (or group) known as “Q” or “Q Clearance Patriot.” It is an expanded successor to the debunked 2016 “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory, which claimed that Hillary Clinton and other prominent Democrats operated a child sex trafficking ring under a Washington, DC pizzeria called Comet Ping Pong. QAnon is also rooted in much older mythologies about sinister secret societies of Satan worshippers, witches, or Jews.QAnon believers hold that our modern world is secretly ruled by a “cabal” or “deep state” of cartoonishly wicked evildoers hidden in plain sight. “Every President after Reagan was one of these deep state criminals,” believers claim.1 Indeed, most “famous politicians, actors, singers, CEOs, and celebrities” are supposedly part of the cabal. For example, entertainers Beyoncé Knowles-Carter, Lady Gaga, and Tom Hanks are all thought to be prominent members. The Obamas and Clintons are supposedly sinister cabal leaders.

These criminals aren’t merely bad, greedy, or ruthless. They’re said to be deliberately, totally, breathtakingly evil. They worship Satan and may be in league with supernatural demons. They systematically abuse, torture, and murder children. They’re pedophiles. They maintain their youth through intoxicating injections of blood drained from children ritually murdered at the moment of maximum terror. The cabal also eats babies.

To maintain power, the cabal controls all mainstream news media and engineers every ill that plagues modern society. As one seductive introductory video2 asks curious viewers,

Have you ever wondered why we go to war? Or why you never seem to be able to get out of debt? Why there is poverty, division, and crime? What if I told you there was a reason for it all? What if I told you it was done on purpose?

The idea that Satanists rule the world is a story of Lovecraftian horror in which the normal world is an illusion and a much darker true world lies just beyond the veil. And yet, QAnon believers are more excited than scared. People who “take the red pill” or “wake up” to the claimed conspiracy are offered a simple explanation for all of the world’s problems. They’re also offered a reassuring prediction for a better future:

What if I told you that those who were corrupting the world, poisoning our food, and igniting conflict were themselves about to be permanently eradicated from the Earth?

According to QAnon mythology, an apocalyptic event called “The Storm” will soon cleanse the world and usher in a utopia. The unlikely savior in this story of revelation and renewal is none other than President Donald J. Trump. “Good patriots in the U.S. military” supposedly “asked Trump to run for President so they could take back control of America” from the Satanic overlords. This righteous struggle is the true purpose of the Trump administration. “The world is currently experiencing a dramatic covert war of Biblical proportions—literally the fight for Earth—between the forces of good and evil,” believers claim.1 Clues about the progress of this clandestine war are to be found in “Q drop” posts by the anonymous Q, and in Trump’s more cryptic statements and typos. Critical news stories about Trump are Satanic lies.

When asked about QAnon, Trump dissembled, describing QAnon believers as “people that love our country” and “like me very much, which I appreciate.” When asked during a pre-election televised town hall interview to denounce the claim that “Democrats are a Satanic pedophile ring, and that you are the saviour,” Trump refused to do so. When exasperated moderator Savannah Guthrie pressed Trump to admit that his political opponents aren’t devil-worshipping child molesters, Trump insisted, “I don’t know that, and neither do you know that.”3

QAnon is broadly compatible with whatever conspiracy beliefs one happens to hold regarding vaccines, Covid-19, fake news, Jews, vampirism, a New World Order, the Vatican, deep state conspirators, “false flag” hoaxes, white nationalism, immigrants, or practically anything else.

With Trump’s tacit encouragement, the QAnon community eagerly looks forward to a moment called the “Great Awakening,” when the good patriots will reveal all and Trump will seal his victory with mass arrests of high government officials. Hillary Clinton and all of the other alleged Satanists will be “severely punished.” As one QAnon YouTube personality gushed: “I’m excited. I’m happy! … Once you know the information you are not in fear; you’re, like, empowered! You are excited. You can’t wait for justice to go down, you can’t wait for the kids to be saved, you can’t wait for the bad guys to be put in jail.”4

The Power of QAnon

The anonymous Q purports to be a highly placed U.S. intelligence officer sharing classified inside information. Q’s posts provide fragmented source material about “pedo networks,” “child abductions for satanic rituals” and the supposed battle against the “powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms.” However, the style of these posts is generally opaque, vague, and posed in the form of insinuating questions. Dubbed “bread crumbs,” they require creative, collaborative interpretation by the QAnon community, allowing enthusiasts to fill in the blanks for themselves.

The result is a viral, organic, crowd-sourced ideology that can stretch to accommodate a broad diversity of conspiratorial views. It is also flexible enough to allow believers to dismiss Q’s failed predictions and shifting claims. (For example, Q’s earliest posts in October of 2017 predicted the imminent arrest of Hillary Clinton, which did not occur.)

QAnon has emerged as a grand unified conspiracy theory. QAnon is broadly compatible with whatever conspiracy beliefs one happens to hold regarding vaccines, Covid-19, fake news, Jews, vampirism, a New World Order, the Vatican, deep state conspirators, “false flag” hoaxes, white nationalism, immigrants, or practically anything else. QAnon acts as a kind of glue that promotes and binds together seemingly unrelated conspiracy theories. When people approach social media with curiosity regarding one conspiracy claim (that vaccines cause autism, for example), those platforms’ recommendation algorithms often promote QAnon content that entices viewers into further conspiracy beliefs.

This flexibility allows QAnon to appeal to secular people as well as fundamentalist “spiritual warriors.” It is able to attract people we would normally expect to reject far-right positions. For example, some people in the “wellness” community find that their doubts about vaccines and mainstream medicine harmonize with QAnon’s rejection of mainstream media and public health. In QAnon’s bizarre melting pot, New Age hippies support a Republican president, adopt radical libertarian objections to pandemic safety measures, and help to inflame the passions of far right “militia” members and white nationalists.

Dangerous Beliefs

As I write this, the United States is confronting multiple serious and mutually compounding crises: a ferociously divided electorate; an unprecedented presidential election; mass protests against racial injustice; a severe economic recession; widespread unemployment; a pandemic that has already claimed 223,000 American lives; and the escalating threat of white nationalist domestic terrorism on the right and Antifa-fueled violent protests on the left. These crises created QAnon. In return, QAnon makes these crises worse.

The pandemic has thrown jet fuel on the QAnon fire, bringing in countless new believers. Those believers tend to interpret Covid-19 as somehow serving the agenda of the Satanic elite. Q suggests that the pandemic is part of a plot to steal the election from Trump by promoting the use of mail-in ballots. Other members of the community object to Covid-19 safety measures such as masks. For example, one woman who previously made headlines with her QAnon claim that actor Tom Hanks “purchased me from my father for sex as a dissociated mind control doll” has more recently claimed “masks are mind control” and “mandating masks is Satanic.” She argues in a YouTube video that masks are part of a “gigantic Satanic ritual initiation” intended for “evil and control, period.”5

QAnon claims are incitements to violence. They have already triggered isolated violent incidents, including an armed standoff at the Hoover dam and at least one murder. QAnon members anticipate further violence and civil unrest during the overthrow of the supposed cabal. For this reason, the FBI has warned that QAnon and other “anti-government, identity based, and fringe political conspiracy theories” will “very likely motivate some domestic extremists…to commit criminal and sometimes violent activity.” Further, QAnon encourages the targeting of specific people accused of membership in the cabal. “These targets are then subjected to harassment campaigns and threats by supporters of the theory,” warns the FBI, “and become vulnerable to violence or other dangerous acts.”

Especially worrisome is the possibility of QAnon-motivated violence during or following the 2020 U.S. presidential election. People radicalized into the belief that public figures are servants of Satan naturally pose a threat—especially when egged on by the President himself. When the perceived enemy is considered elementally evil, and the future of the world is thought to be at stake, the most extreme measures may appear reasonable to committed believers.

In recent months, this rising threat has motivated social media companies to take unusual steps to combat QAnon. Facebook has announced an evolving series of “measures designed to disrupt the ability of QAnon and Militarized Social Movements to operate and organize on our platform,” including the removal of “over 1,500 Pages and Groups for QAnon containing discussions of potential violence.” Facebook later expanded its restrictions on the conspiracy group, announcing, “we will remove any Facebook Pages, Groups and Instagram accounts representing QAnon, even if they contain no violent content.” Twitter and YouTube have recently taken similar steps.

However, QAnon has been growing since 2017. Much of the damage is already done. Polls suggest that around 23 million Americans hold a “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” view of QAnon. Larger percentages are prepared to accept individual QAnon claims. For example, 18 percent of respondents in one survey agreed that it is “probably or definitely true” that Trump is secretly preparing for a “mass arrest of government officials and celebrities.” Although some of these respondents heard this “mass arrests” claim for the first time from the survey itself, this finding suggests that almost 60 million Americans could become receptive to this essentially fascist QAnon claim.6

Recycled Antisemitism

QAnon’s extremist claims are certainly outlandish, but this does not make them original. QAnon largely repackages older conspiracy beliefs dating back decades and even centuries.

For example, the belief that scheming elite puppet masters control the banks and the media merely rehashes tired but dangerous antisemitic tropes. The scenario envisioned by QAnon echoes the infamous early 20th century antisemitic hoax, The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. That malicious document purported to record a secret Jewish plan to take over the world and oppress gentiles. The Jewish elite would achieve “absolute despotism” over all nations by controlling the banks and the press. Although discredited as a plagiarized forgery in 1921, the Protocols hoax went on to influence Adolf Hitler and his Nazi regime. Hitler claimed the Protocols were authentic, and said they revealed the true “nature and activity of the Jewish people and…their ultimate final aims.” Given this blood-soaked history, it is noteworthy that QAnon claims prominent Jewish Americans such as George Soros are secret despotic rulers of the Earth.

Conceptually, QAnon’s antisemitic roots extend back much further to the medieval “blood libel” that Jews ritually murdered and ate Christian children. These wildly dangerous false allegations had terrible and predictable real-world consequences: sporadic massacres of European Jews.

Satanic Panic

QAnon also rehashes debunked old claims of Satanic Ritual Abuse cults, which were based in turn upon Renaissance era claims about sinister secret covens of witches. QAnon’s imagined Satanic cabal is essentially identical to the network of highly placed Satanists imagined during the Satanic Panic of the 1980s—especially in their shared claims of systematic ritual abuse of children.

The Satanic Panic was ignited by a bizarre memoir called Michelle Remembers. Published in 1980, it tells the supposedly true (but later discredited) story of a girl ritually tortured for months by a Satanic cult. The story emerged during intense therapy sessions in which the adult Michelle was pressured to “recover” increasingly outlandish “memories” of her supposed childhood ordeal—false memories that did not previously exist.

The book’s claims were not true, but they were horrifying. Michelle allegedly endured ritualized humiliation and sexual abuse. In one passage, a woman wearing a “black cape with a hood” dipped a colored stick into a “silver goblet and inserted” the stick “in Michelle’s rectum.” The woman shoved other sticks “everywhere I had an opening!” Several scenes feature dead, murdered, or dismembered children and infants. In the book’s grisly, absurd climax, Satan himself appears as a character. He recites bad poetry and accepts tribute from the cult, including offerings of dead infants “in a pile at his feet.”7

This lurid tale proved much more influential than it deserved. It created a “script” for countless later claims of Satanic abuse of children. Many misguided therapists pressured their own patients to “recover” stories like Michelle’s. These copycat stories were then repeated in books, workshops, and TV interviews, reenforcing the moral panic’s standard narrative template: hidden legions of Satanists are secretly abusing thousands of children. Books warned of the “ever growing web being spun by those who desire to lead your children into satanism.” Ensnared youngsters could suffer “all manner of sexual perversions,” “sexual orgies which involved children and animals,”8 and even human sacrifice and cannibalization of infants.

None of these Satanic abuse stories was true. Years of investigations by journalists and law enforcement failed to uncover even one single genuine case. Nevertheless, the resulting international panic led to numerous false accusations against individuals, some of whom were tried and wrongly convicted for imaginary crimes against children.

Covens of Witches

In retrospect, Michelle Remembers was clearly inspired by fantastical horror movie depictions of Devil worshipers. Those films were inspired in turn by centuries- old folklore.

It was widely believed in Renaissance times that society was plagued by hidden covens of witches who worshiped Satan and conspired against Christians. The witches were supposed to be utterly, unspeakably evil. “So heinous are the crimes of witches that they even exceed the sins and the fall of the bad Angels,” said the infamous witch hunting manual Malleus Maleficarum (“Hammer of Witches”). The manual claimed that witches “are in the habit of devouring and eating infant children.” For example, one man allegedly “missed his child from its cradle, and finding a congress of women in the night-time, swore that he saw them kill his child and drink its blood and devour it.” The witches were also “taught by the devil to confect from the limbs of such children an unguent which is very useful for their spells.”

The threat of pure evil justified even the most extreme measures to protect society. Suspected witches were brutally tortured until they told the expected stories that interrogators wanted to hear. When they inevitably did so, they were burned to death. Their extorted false “confessions” appeared to confirm the beliefs of the witch hunters,and justified further attacks on innocent people—usually the most vulnerable, such as destitute women and the mentally ill. Many thousands of innocent people were murdered in the name of this conspiracy theory.

QAnon Will Not “Save” Children

President Trump has claimed that QAnon believers “are very much against pedophilia. They fight it very hard.” QAnon does indeed rally under a banner to “save the children!” However, both Trump and QAnon are mistaken. QAnon isn’t doing anything at all to fight pedophiles. They’re railing against imaginary witches.

One of the tragedies of the Satanic Panic of the 1980s was that it created confusion and diverted attention and law enforcement resources away from the genuine social evil of child sexual abuse. The people locked up for Satanic sexual abuse were innocent. People guilty of actual sexual abuse all too often went unpunished.

In an effort to protect children, moral campaigners in the 1980s led crusades against supposedly Satanic music, role-playing games, Disney movies, and young adult fiction. Their pamphlets and seminars taught law enforcement officers to look for imaginary signs of imaginary abuse by imaginary cults. Supposed signs of Satanic cult activity included everything from teen-aged boredom to the hippie “peace” symbol.9 Activists and counselors accomplished nothing for children with their bad advice about nonexistent threats. They did nothing to bring criminals to justice. Instead, they sent police on wild goose chases, left children in the hands of misguided, overzealous investigators, and ruined the lives of innocent people who were falsely accused.

Likewise, QAnon’s baseless accusations against Democrats and celebrities will not help children. Like the moral crusaders of the Satanic Panic, QAnon imagines that perpetrators of both genders conspire in a vast national network, abduct children, and gather in groups to commit abuse for ritual purposes. In reality, child molesters are most often lone males who are known to their victims and motivated by pathological sexual desires.

Instead of saving children, QAnon’s incitements to violence put children and adults in danger. On December 4, 2016, an armed gunman walked into the Comet Ping Pong pizza parlor intending to rescue children from Hillary Clinton’s alleged child sex trafficking ring located in the basement…of a building that does not have a basement. Despite internet rumors, the only children in the pizzeria were customers. Those kids were placed in jeopardy when the wouldbe rescuer fired three shots from an AR-15 rifle. Thankfully, no one was hurt. (The man surrendered to police. He was later sentenced to four years in prison.)

The threat of QAnon-motivated domestic terrorism diverts law enforcement resources from real problems. Every minute cops spend watching QAnon is a minute not spent investigating other crimes—including abuse against children.

Conclusion

QAnon’s conspiracy claims are not based in fact. The anonymous Q poster could be anyone from an overseas “troll farm” to a teenaged prankster. Q’s claims are frequently meaningless or factually wrong. There was never any good reason to believe this absurd story.

However, some people do believe it, to their own detriment and ours. Intense fringe beliefs tend to harm believers by isolating them from friends and loved ones. In this case, the content of their beliefs also threatens society at large. It is dangerous when groups are radicalized to perceive their adversaries as irredeemably evil. What wouldn’t one do to stop people who eat babies? As one former QAnon member recently told CNN, it “still bothers me to this day, how willing and happy and joyfully I would have reacted to something that I would normally want no part in,” such as cheering for the extralegal arrest of Hillary Clinton. “This is how you get good people to do bad things.”10

Eliminating QAnon’s threat to society would take more than watchful cops and social media bans. It would require QAnon supporters to change their minds about a cherished belief and a community they’ve invested in heavily. Admitting serious error is an extraordinarily difficult and courageous thing for anyone to do. Generous, respectful, personal outreach can sometimes help; shaming will not. Believers need support if they are to have any hope of transitioning away from their misguided movement. “It has to start with empathy and understanding,” the former QAnon member told CNN. QAnon believers are highly insulated from contrary information by their beliefs that news media are untrustworthy and nonbelievers are blind to the truth. True communication can only take place when barriers to communication are removed through compassion.

That’s easier said than done. However, there’s urgent reason to try. Conspiracy theories thrive most dangerously during times of uncertainty and societal stress—such as during a pandemic. During the medieval Black Death, conspiracy theorists claimed that Jews were secretly causing the plague by poisoning wells. As a result, mob violence erupted across Europe. Hundreds of Jewish communities were wiped out; many thousands of men, women, and children were burned to death.

Another pandemic rages today. As millions suffer and mourn and political divides deepen into chasms, one simple truth can help make us safer: we are in this thing together.

References
  1. “Q — The Plan To Save The World.” YouTube, March 20, 2019. https://bit.ly/3olxxVH (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  2. Ibid.
  3. “Trump refuses to denounce QAnon conspiracies.” CNN Politics, October 16, 2020. https://cnn.it/3mj8hxx (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  4. Kim Cohen. “Why I’m Not Scared & You SHOULDN’T Be Either! THE GREAT AWAKENING! (5 Levels To Q.)” YouTube, April 9, 2020. https://bit.ly/2Tn2lal (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  5. Sarah Ashcraft. “Masks are Mind Control.” YouTube, July 17, 2020. https://bit.ly/3dRWYJQ (accessed October 18, 2020.)
  6. Brian Schaffner. “QAnon and Conspiracy Beliefs.” Institute for Strategic Dialogue, October 5, 2020. https://bit.ly/3kFvdqB
  7. Michelle Smith and Lawrence Pazder. Michelle Remembers. (New York: Congdon & Lattès, 1980.) pp. 23, 216.
  8. Pat Pulling with Kathy Cawthon. The Devil’s Web: Who Is Stalking Your Children for Satan? (Milton Keynes, England: Word Publishing, 1990.) pp. 1, 67.
  9. Gayland Hurst and Robert Marsh. Satanic Cult Awareness. (Self published pamphlet, date unknown, acquired by NCJRS Jan 27, 1993.)
  10. Bronte Lord and Richa Naik. “He went down the QAnon rabbit hole for almost two years. Here’s how he got out.” CNN Business, October 18, 2020. https://cnn.it/3okuMUR (accessed October 18, 2020.)

 

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Is there a long emergency plan for peak oil?

 

Source: A year on the midieval farm https://www.medievalists.net/2014/06/year-medieval-farm/

Ever since I learned about peak oil in 2000 after reading my grandfather Pettijohn’s memoir (Pettijohn 1984), I’ve wondered what The Plan To Cope with Oil Decline and eventual disappearance was.

In 2024, I came to the conclusion there is not a plan, CANNOT be a plan. This is not a temporary problem like a natural disaster. It is a permanent emergency.  To understand why there can be no plan, read these posts:

  1. Raven Rock parts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
  2. Book review of Lights Out. A Cyberattack. A Nation Unprepared. Surviving the Aftermath

There was a plan, sort of, to cope with oil shortages, but even in 1980 before Republicans became right-wing extremists, they voted against it. Basically the plan was to allocate to agriculture whatever it needed, and leftover oil went to other essential services, and any still around after that to the public.

US Department of Energy 1980 oil rationing plan

At a minimum the government should be working on rationing:

Rationing. Book review of “Any way you slice it” by Stan Cox

It would have to be a permanent emergency plan.  After all, petroleum is The Master Resource that makes all other resources and activities possible, including coal and natural gas (solar, wind, transmission grid, and so on).

There have indeed been plans: Nixon launched “Project Independence” after the oil shock of 1973 to wean the U.S. from its dependence on imported oil by 1980 with kerogen shale oil, hydrogen fuel vehicles, and nuclear power.

When that didn’t pan out, further government attempts were made to find alternatives for fossil fuels, for example (NRC 2009):

  • Richard Nixon’s “Project Independence” (1974)
  • National Renewable Energy Laboratory (1974)
  • Gerald Ford’s “Energy Independence Act” (1975)
  • Energy Policy & Conservation Act (1975) to restrict exports of coal, petroleum products, natural gas, petrochemical feedstocks, and supplies of materials and equipment for the exploration, production, refining, and transportation of energy.
  • Jimmy Carter’s “National Energy Plan” (1977)
  • Department of Energy (1977)
  • Ronald Reagan’s “Energy Security” report (1987)
  • George H.W. Bush’s “National Energy Strategy” (1991)
  • Bill Clinton’s “Federal Energy R&D for the Challenges of the 21st Century” report (1997)
  • George W. Bush’s “Reliable, Affordable, and Environmentally Sound Energy for America’s Future” report (2001).
  • John Kerry’s plan: “Kerry Aims to Reduce Foreign Oil Reliance,” Associated Press (2004).

But Senator Lugar pointed out in several Senate hearings, despite Project Independence and other energy plans, the world has become more reliant on the three-quarters of reserves concentrated in unstable regions, where the risk of wars over remaining energy supplies will dramatically increase (Senate 106-930 2000, Senate 109-385 2005, Senate 109-861 2006, Senate 109-860 2006, Senate 109-64 2006, Senate 111-78 2009, Senate 111-105 2009).

Or as Jay Hanson (2004) once wrote: “I am convinced that after the PROJECT INDEPENDENCE fiasco, our rulers reached the same conclusion I have: since no solution exists, there is no point in scaring Joe Six-pack.  It’s kind of like that movie ON THE BEACH where the radiation cloud is coming and nothing can be done about it.  That is why EIA, USGS, Michael Lynch, et al are trying to convince everyone there is plenty of oil and gas”.

And Donella Meadows (2002), lead author of “Limits to Growth”, wrote that “President Nixon’s Project Independence, dreamed up after the 1973 oil embargo, promised that the United States would be free of imported oil by 1980. System dynamicists saw immediately (and later demonstrated with a computer model) that, given the expected lifetime of installed oil-burning furnaces and cars and inevitable delays in finding and gearing up domestic oil wells, that goal was physically impossible. (An amazing amount of political discussion is directed toward goals that are physically impossible.)”

The Department of Energy (Hirsch 2005) asked Robert Hirsch to come up with a peak oil mitigation plan, and he said you’d want to prepare at least 10 to 20 years ahead of time (at the 2006 ASPO peak oil conference in Pisa Italy he told the audience you’d want over 30 years of planning).  And his five solutions were: more oil!  The “solutions” are very temporary: heavy oil, gas-to-liquid (GTL) from natural gas, enhanced oil recovery, liquefied coal (CTL) and more efficient vehicles. But I explain in When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation (Friedemann 2016) why GTL, CTL, and heavy oil can’t replace conventional oil, and in addition, tar sand production is limited by natural gas and water in Canada (see also Nikiforuk 2010).  Though to be fair to Hirsch, in 2011 he wrote a book called “The Impending World Energy Mess” with advice on how to survive the coming crash.

But then again — in 2008 he wrote a memo to the leaders of the peak oil community asking them not to publicize the dangers of peak oil which said: “The world is in the midst of the most severe financial crisis in most of our lifetimes. The economic damage that has already been wrought is considerable, and we have yet to see the bottom or the turnaround. Against this background, I suggest that the peak oil community minimize its efforts to awaken the world to the near-term dangers of world oil supply. The motivation is simple: By minimizing our efforts in the near term, we may not add fuel to the economic fires that are already burning so fiercely. We are all aware of how disoriented governments and business are right now. Our leaders, leaders-to-be, and best minds are disoriented and seeking pathways out of the current morass. The public is in a quiet panic mode — those who were reasonably well off are less well off, and their options for action are limited. Those that have lost their jobs and/or homes are desperate. Businesses and the markets are in what might be called a free fall. If the realization of peak oil along with its disastrous financial implications was added to the existing mix of troubles, the added trauma could be unthinkable. Like many of you, I’ve devoted my recent efforts to trying to wake the public and governments to the impending horrors of peak oil. As much as that awaking is urgently needed, continuing to press forward now is almost certainly not in the broader interest.Many may be tempted to directly challenge the recent IEA World Energy Outlook. I am among those who were very disappointed. Pressing those concerns at this time might further the peak oil “cause,” but it could well do much more damage than any of us really intend.Please keep up your studies and thinking, because helping the world realize the dangers of peak oil is an absolute must. In the near term, keeping relatively quiet is likely the better part of valor (Ball 2008)”.

It is scary. I’ve spent 22 years looking for a way out, and the only way is back to the past.  In a nutshell, here’s why. “When Trucks stop Running” explains why heavy-duty transportation can’t run on anything but diesel fuel and why batteries, natural gas, liquefied coal, hydrogen and other alternatives won’t work. Civilization would collapse within a month if diesel ran out. I also explain why the electric grid will eventually fail when natural gas isn’t around to balance intermittent energy, since there’s no way to store weeks of electricity to cope with seasonal shortages, nor would a national grid solve this problem, and “renewables” depend on fossil fuel energy for every single step of their life cycle. My second book, Life After fossil fuels, explains why fossil fuels can’t be replaced in key areas of society. Manufacturing needs the high heat only fossils can provide, food for 8 billion people needs finite natural gas fertilizer, and goes over every alternative — hydrogen, solar, wind, batteries, and so on to show why fossils can’t be replaced.

And yet here it is 2022, with world oil peak production likely having occurred in 2018.  Surely there must be some doubts about Plan A: energy independence. Dozens of authors have been writing about why alternatives can’t replace fossils for decades now (i.e. Gever’s 1991 “Beyond Oil: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades, Youngquist’s 1997  “Geodestinies”, etc).

So is there a Plan B for the long and permanent emergency?

I looked for plans, and found that most states do have plans for coping with an energy crisis. Since I live in California I looked at their plan first. The 2006 Energy Emergency Response Plan of the California Energy Commission defines its purpose as the state’s strategy for responding to an energy emergency of an actual or potential loss of energy supply that significantly impacts the state. An energy emergency can be caused by natural disasters (such as earthquake, fire, or flood) or geopolitical events such as war, terrorism, civil disturbance, or embargo).

The Plan relies on a free-market approach to control distribution and supply. Government intervention occurs only to the extent necessary to protect the interests of public health, safety, and welfare, along with critical community services and economic operations. During the early stages of an energy emergency, the primary role of state government is fact finding, monitoring, and exchanging information, rather than direct intervention in industry efforts to restore services and satisfy customer requirements.

The state’s response to an emergency will vary depending on the situation. For example, one response to an electricity emergency would involve an appeal to the public to reduce their electricity use. During the early stages of a fuel emergency an appeal for demand reduction will likely escalate the fuel shortage if Californians top off their gasoline tanks in anticipation of an emergency.

Mainly it is many pages of the actions various agencies will take and which agencies they’ll coordinate with. For example:

  • Readiness actions: Monitors international and domestic events. Attends periodic exercises to establish and test emergency protocols. Trains appropriate Energy Commission staff. Updates and maintains a network of public and private sector contacts. Prepares Internal Advisory Reports as needed.
  • Verify actions: determine nature, extent, and duration of a potential or actually energy emergency. Coordinate with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services, the US DOE, and other agencies as well as private industries. Provide a Situation Report. Use the informal fuels set-aside program to be sure that emergency and essential services have adequate fuel.
  • EMERGENCY ACTIONS: the Governor must first issue the Proclamation of a State of Emergency and file an Emergency Order with the Office of the Secretary of State.
  • OFFICE OF EMERGENCY SERVICES: Inland Region (Sacramento/Mather), Coastal Region (Oakland), Southern Region (Los Alamitos Armed Forces Reserve Center If the disaster is localized within a single region, the Regional Emergency Operations Center (REOC) is activated.

If fuel is short there’s a set-aside program for emergency and essential services only.  There’s a form to fill out in the California Petroleum Fuels Set-Aside Program Applicant Handbook, and one of the agencies will decide whether to fulfill it or not. And the government is not paying for the fuel, the agency asking for it has to pay the market price if granted.  I’d hoped to see the actual services that qualified.  Though you can get an idea from the impressive plan to cope with energy shortages after an earthquake in Southern California, it is impossibly difficult, read all about it here.

And here is a Homeland Security 2017 plan called “Guidance for Developing a Fuel Contingency Plan”. Again, it’s SHORT TERM, for some sort of natural disaster like hurricane.  And basically advises setting up emergency supplies for private and public entities. Here are their concrete recommendations, but these “solutions” are so temporary, here are a few of them:

  • Consider increasing or installing onsite fuel storage capability. However, when pursuing this option, remember that storage of flammable or combustible fuels requires compliance with a variety of safety and environmental regulations and may require permits from State and/or local environmental protection and fire safety authorities. Be sure to consider the impact of onsite fuel storage on your insurance premiums.
  • Identify additional retail fuel vendors from whom you might be able to obtain fuel during fuel emergencies, ensuring that each retail vendor is resilient with respect to onsite emergency power.
  • If your core functions (and their supporting functions) depend heavily on electric power, consider enhancing onsite emergency power generation capability, either by installing a permanent emergency generator and fuel storage tank or by modifying your facility’s existing electrical infrastructure to facilitate installation of a portable generator. If you perform lifeline functions, you may be eligible for Federal support for such changes. Through a program operated in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) known as the Emergency Power Facility Assessment Tool (EPFAT), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) can evaluate the emergency power requirements for certain private sector businesses, develop specifications for an emergency generator that can support core functions, assist in the installation of appropriate transfer switches that expedite connections to a portable emergency generator, and deploy the appropriately sized portable generator during emergencies. USACE will also register the facility with FEMA, making your facility eligible for priority distribution of fuel to support the emergency generator. Details of the EPFAT program can be found at http://www.usace.army.mil/Portals/2/docs/Emergency%20Ops/National%20Response%20Framework/power/EPFAT_Fact_Sheet_21_April_2015.pdf
  • Review the National Petroleum Council’s report, Enhancing Emergency Preparedness for Natural Disasters – Government and Oil and Natural Gas Industry Actions to Prepare, Respond, and Recover, to understand the basic elements of petroleum fuel supply chains and their vulnerabilities to disruption and to identify ways to establish effective working relationships with members of your local Oil and Natural Gas community

The Homeland Security document is worth looking at if you’re curious about the details, and has a four page list in Appendix B of other emergency planning documents.

But what about the Long Emergency, the permanent slide back to a wood world?

These temporary emergency plans will become the long emergency plans if the latter don’t exist.

If there were long emergency plans, we’d already have a massively subsidized program to end pesticides (since they are running out anyhow, like antibiotics), replace natural gas fertilizer with compost and regenerative agriculture, converting industrial to organic agriculture, breeding horses and oxen to replace tractors, teaching how to grow food in schools, building very small homes in the interior of the U.S. because 80% of the calories are grown in the interior, but 80% of the population lives within 200 miles of the coast, and so on.  See resilience.org, postcarbon.org, Transition Towns, Permaculture books and websites, local food, Trainer’s simplicity Institute and more for the myriad transition ideas for realistic permanent emergency plans.

We’d also have a farm bill that rewarded small farms. After all, in the future 80 to 90% of us will need to be farmers as we were before fossil fuels (or better yet reinvent the societies “Dawn of Everything” cites where cultures rotated between hunting/gathering and growing food and other alternatives (Graeber 2021).  In the U.S. farms declined from 7 million farms to 2 million in the 20th century (USDA 2022), mainly because most subsidies go to large farms, and economies of scale favor farms with the most gigantic tractors.  But farm equipment runs on diesel — that isn’t going to last…  Globally, 1% of farms operate 70% of world’s farmland (Watts 2020, Anseeuw 2020). This concentrated ownership leads to destructive monocultures, soil erosion, aquifer depletion, and deforestation.

But we’re not doing that.  So if there are realistic long emergency last minute plans, they’re hidden from public view at Homeland Security and/or within the U.S. military, because they’d be too scary for the public.  I’ll let my imagination run wild, perhaps these plans discuss how national guards and the military forces would prevent mass migrations, set up massive tent cities in agricultural regions, evacuate those under 40 who volunteer to harvest crops, breed horses, and transport crops via horse & bicycle to nearby towns and cities once muscle power was more available than petroleum, and to train them in organic farming.  Food rationing. Soup kitchens. Breadlines and more…

Or perhaps the plan is war to gain access to oil. Again, that’s not a long-term solution, just a Last Man Standing strategy. Which is why there’s so much propaganda about renewables — no worries if fossils decline!

Originally the plan may have been to befriend oil nations, as FDR did with Saudi Arabia in the 1940s (Rundell 2020) offering to defend them in exchange for oil if we needed it (but we haven’t had to import much from them due to Alaskan, South American, and other sources of oil).

But can we protect Saudi Arabia? No one anticipated the rise of China, with the largest blue navy in the world today. Plus they control up to 99% of many rare earth and other scarce minerals in every step of the chain from mining to finished goods. Nations that also have rare earths often sell them to China because they don’t have refineries and end product factories.

Many nations have nuclear weapons unfortunately.  Even a small war between Pakistan and India would kill billions of people as the ozone layer grew thin and nuclear winter ruined crop production for ten years on most of the planet.  A nuclear WWIII could drive us and millions of species to extinction in that case (Bardeen 2021, Coupe 2021, Jägermeyr 2020, Mills 2008, Robock 2011, Scherrer 2020).

And yet the U.S. is thinking of using small tactical nuclear weapons, despite the risk of escalating the conflict tipping the launch of the big guys, the ICBMs and submarine missiles that can take out whole cities. The U.S. Navy has already deployed an 8 kiloton warhead on a Trident submarine, the big guy missiles on board are 90 to 450 KT in comparison (Kaplan 2020). China and Russia have these too.

Or maybe the plan in the U.S. is for everyone to kill each other to get back to a carrying capacity of 40 to 100 million people (Pimentel 1990).  U.S. civilians and police departments have at least 20 million assault rifles.  And overall there are 393.3 million guns, 120 for every 100 people.  Or perhaps 434 million according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the gun industry’s largest trade group.  No one knows for sure because the government doesn’t keep track of the number of guns in circulation.  Gun ownership is bound to go up. Mass shootings have been a real boon to the gun industry, every time someone goes postal gun sales go way up (Busse 2021, Callcut 2019).

Or let’s get really crazy – perhaps The Plan in a nation, could be any nation, or by the elites, as Jay Hanson speculated in energyresources, to create or allow a pandemic to spread.  Jay thought the elites would do this to make oil and other resources available so they could still get around in their private airplanes and yachts to visit their numerous luxury properties.

The simple answer about what The Plan is for fossil decline is probably there isn’t one, can’t be one. As Graff (2018) points out in his book about the government’s plans to carry on with democracy after a nuclear war with Russia that it’s simply impossible to build underground cities and bunkers to house every American in case of a nuclear war and stockpile them with years of food.  The plan now is to let a few hundred top officials escape to a few safe places dug under mountains with years of food stockpiled inside.  That’s why government plans for “How to Build your Own Bomb Shelter” were published.

You’re on your own. Though the Mormons will probably do best, they are expected to stockpile a year of food in their homes, and the Mormon church owns more farmland than any other entity.

Ultimately, since we’ve harmed the planet in so may ways using the tremendous power of fossil fuels — eroding topsoil, emptying aquifers, pollution, toxic chemicals, and changing our climate so much food production will be less in the future, the societies that emerge after collapse may be very different from what we know today. For example, depend on agriculture only part of the year and move between places seasonally.  Be ruled by city councils rather than autocrats, and have far more individual freedom as Graeber and Wengrow’s document in their wonderful book “Dawn of Everything“.  This book gives me tremendous hope about the future.

Small to mid-sized cities should make their own plans for the apocalypse

Boyd M (2025) Resilience to abrupt global catastrophic risks disrupting trade: Combining urban and near-urban agriculture in a quantified case study of a globally median-sized city. PLOS ONE.
This paper found that under a normal climate, peas are the best urban agriculture crop for maximizing protein and calories while minimizing land requirements. In scenarios of nuclear winter—global cooling caused by large-scale nuclear war—sugar beets and spinach are the frontrunners.
Presumably the catastrophe is not an oil crisis, because in this paper, industrial farming continues, ensuring high yields, and farmers are able to make biofuels from crops.  Not likely in reality since they wouldn’t be made to diesel #2 specs and potentially harm the engines of tractors and combines.

So how useful is this study? The town studied was Palmerston North New Zealand with 91,000 people, surrounded by farm land and few other towns nearby.  Auckland is 511 km/318 miles north, so perhaps not easily overwhelmed by urban invaders.

I think it is a bit too rosy, but nonetheless ought to be done in small to mid-sized towns in agricultural areas for emergency planning, setting up community gardens now with good soil, and more.

Abrupt global catastrophes—such as nuclear wars, extreme pandemics, or solar storms—could severely hamper global trade. Shortages of resources like liquid fuels could disrupt food production and transport, possibly leading to famine. Prior research has suggested that this impact could be mitigated by urban agriculture, which includes such approaches as home, community, and rooftop gardens.

Explained at phys.org: After the apocalypse: Urban and near-urban farming may be enough to sustain mid-size cities

References

Ball J (2008) Prominent Peaker Tells Allies to (Temporarily) Pipe Down. The Wall Street Journal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-EB-2068

Bardeen CG et al (2021) Extreme Ozone Loss Following Nuclear War Results in Enhanced Surface Ultraviolet Radiation. JGR atmospheres. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035079

Busse R (2021) Gunfight: My Battle Against the Industry that Radicalized America. PublicAffairs.

Callcut RA et al (2019) Effect of mass shootings on gun sales—A 20-year perspective. J Trauma Acute Care Surg.

Coupe J, Stevenson S, NS Lovenduski et al (2021) Nuclear Niño response observed in simulations of nuclear war scenarios. Communications Earth & Environment.

Friedemann AJ (2016) When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation. Springer.

Graeber D, Wengrow D (2021) The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity.

Hanson J (2004) Post 51366 in yahoo group Energy Resources.

Hirsch RL, et al (2005) Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management. Department of Energy.

Jägermeyr J et al (2020) A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences..

Kaplan F (2020) The Senseless Danger of the Military’s New “Low-Yield” Nuclear Warhead. Slate.com

Mills, M.J.  8 Apr 2008. Massive global ozone loss predicted following regional nuclear conflict. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences vol 105:14:5307-5312.

Nikiforuk A (2010) Tar Sands: Dirty Oil and the Future of a Continent. Greystone books.

NRC (2009) America’s Energy Future: Technology and Transformation. 2009. National Academy of Sciences, National Research Council, National Academy of Engineering.

Meadows D (2002) Chicken Little, Cassandra, and the Real Wolf. Formerly at http://www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/228.html and post 27238 in energyresources.

Pettijohn FJ (1984) Memoirs of an Unrepentant Field Geologist: A Candid Profile of Some Geologists and their Science, 1921-1981. University of Chicago Press.

Pimentel D, Pimentel M (1990) Land, energy, and water: the constraints governing ideal U.S. population size. The NPG forum. PMID: 12178968

Robock, A. 2011. Nuclear winter is a real and present danger. Nature 473: 275-6

Rundell D (2020) Vision or Mirage: Saudi Arabia at the Crossroads. I.B. Taruis.

Scherrer KJN et al (2020) Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war. PNAS. http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/NuclearFishPNAS.pdf

Senate 106-930. July 20, 2000. Energy and agriculture. U.S. Senate.

Senate 109–385. November 16, 2005. High costs of crude: the new currency of foreign policy. U.S. Senate Hearing.

Senate 109-861. March 30, 2006. The Hidden Cost of Oil. U.S. Senate hearing.

Senate 109-860. May 16, 2006. Energy security and oil dependence. U.S. Senate hearing.

Senate 109-64. June 2006. Energy diplomacy and security. a compilation of statements by witnesses before the Committee on Foreign Relations. U.S. Senate.

Senate  111–78. May 12, 2009. Energy Security: Historical perspectives and Modern challenges. U.S. Senate.

Senate 111-105. July 16, 2009. $150 oil: Instability, terrorism and economic disruption. U.S. Senate.

USDA (2022) Farming and Farm Income. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistics-charting-the-essentials/farming-and-farm-income/

***

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Climate change will damage energy infrastructure, costing trillions

Preface. Climate change and extreme weather will harm oil and gas exploration and production, electric power generation and increase energy demand due to sea level rise, heat, drought, floods, more storms, and blackouts.  Extreme heat and drought will force electric power plants to shut down from lack of cooling water. Our continuing exponentially growing population will increase demand on our falling apart energy infrastructure.  This report says that climate caused disasters are already costing billions of dollars, and in the future, trillions.

Climate change will makes blackouts and brownouts more common. It already is: Rising heat in the West has driven a steep increase in demand for air conditioning, bringing the electric grid down at times. As have wildfires. And as a preventive measure, utilities in California take the grid down for days if high winds are forecast, leaving millions in the dark. In Texas, an ice storm nearly blacked out the electric grid for months (Douglas 2021).

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Posted in Cascading Failure, Climate Change, Electric Grid, Electric Grid & EMP Electromagnetic Pulse, Energy Production, Hydropower, Peak Water, Ships and Barges | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Climate change will damage energy infrastructure, costing trillions

How to fix our inland waterway system

Preface.  As you can see in Table 1 below, water transport is far more energy efficient than land transport, especially once we’re back to muscle power after fossil fuels are gone.

Kilojoules of energy used to carry one ton of cargo one kilometer Transportation mode
50 Oil tankers and bulk cargo ships
100–150 Smaller cargo ships
250–600 Trains
360 Barge
2000–4000 Trucks
30,000 Air freight
55,000 Helicopter

Table 1 Energy efficiency of transportation in kilojoules/ton/kilometer. Source: Smil (2013), Ashby (2015).

To prepare for energy descent, more canals should be created now, while we still have cheap plentiful energy. We’ll also need to keep in mind the maintenance and dredging of canals after fossils as well (De Decker 2018).

The National Academy of Science study (159 pages) found that the selection of waterways projects for authorization has a long history of being driven largely by political and local concerns. The approval and funding process is an irrational, byzantine mess.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

NRC. 2015. TRB special report 315: funding and managing the U.S. inland waterways system: what policy makers need to know. National Resource Council Transportation research board, National Academy of Sciences.

Inland waterway system stats:

  • The inland waterways system moves 6 to 7 percent of all domestic cargo in terms of total ton-miles, mostly coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, and crude materials.
  • Inland waterways include more than 36,000 miles of commercially navigable channels and roughly 240 working lock sites.
  • Barges mostly carry energy: coal, crude petroleum, petroleum products, and natural gas based fertilizers

2013 Commodities carried by USACE at http://www.navigationdatacenter.us/wcsc/pdf/pdrgcm13.pdf

  • Tons
  • Millions     Commodity
  • 312.3     Coal                      
  • 418.9     Crude petroleum
  • 508.6     Petroleum products
  • 39.9       Chemical fertilizer
  • 140.6      Chemicals excluding fertilizers
  • 53           Lumber, logs, wood chips, pulp
  • 163.5      Sand, gravel, shells, clay, salt, and slag
  • 85.4        Iron ore, iron, and steel waste and scrap
  • 29.5        Non-ferrous ores and scrap
  • 45           Primary non-metal products
  • 72           Primary metal products
  • 270         Food and food products
  • 121         Manufactured goods
  • 62.3        Unknown and not elsewhere classified products
  • 2,275      TOTAL

The inland waterways system provides for the domestic barge shipping component of the nation’s freight transportation system. The system infrastructure is managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and funded through the USACE inland navigation budget. The United States established and funded the federal inland waterways system early in the nation’s history to promote commercial shipping and the U.S. economy. Commercial shipping continues to drive federal economic interest in the system. The Executive Committee of the Transportation Research Board (TRB) initiated this consensus study of the inland waterways system because of reports of deteriorating and aged infrastructure combined with inadequate capital investment, a growing backlog of capital needs, and declining federal funding for inland navigation.

The primary concern of this report is funding for lock and dam infrastructure on rivers or river systems. Locks and dams are the main mechanism for enabling cargo movements and the most expensive component in maintaining the inland waterways for barge transportation, although other activities such as dredging are necessary and can be costly. The Great Lakes and the Saint Lawrence River are part of the larger inland marine transportation system but not a focus of this report because of the small number of locks and dams they contain.

Beyond the Scope. Issues related to ports and harbors are beyond the scope. USACE is responsible for deep draft harbor dredging to ensure that harbor channels can accommodate flows of freight carried on large vessels for international commerce. However, ports and harbors are managed and funded differently from the inland waterways and are not a focus of this report. Panama Canal expansion also is not addressed in this report except to the extent that it relates to arguments for the building of larger locks on parts of the inland waterways system. Broader water resource management and funding challenges and opportunities for the nation are beyond the scope of this report. USACE has three primary mission areas: navigation for freight transportation, flood control and damage reduction, and ecosystem restoration. Other activities performed by USACE include safety and disaster relief, hurricane and storm damage reduction, water supply, hydroelectric power generation, and waterborne recreation. This report focuses on funding for the inland waterways system with regard to the freight transportation mission;

The main cost in providing for barge service is maintaining locks and other infrastructure that enables cargo movements. While many locks are more than 50 years old, age is not a useful indicator of their condition. Many locks have been rehabilitated, and lock performance correlates poorly with age. The large backlog of capital projects also is not a reliable indicator of funding required for maintaining reliable freight service. The navigation share of these projects is modest, maintenance costs are not included in the backlog, and Congress has authorized more projects than can be funded.

The most critical need for the inland waterways system is a sustainable and well-executed plan for maintaining system reliability and performance that ensures efficient use of limited navigation resources. Time lost due to delays at locks and locks out of commission for repairs is a cost to shippers and an important consideration in deciding on future investments to maintain reliable freight service. System-wide, about 20% of time lost in transportation is caused by scheduled and unscheduled outages. A more targeted operations and maintenance (O&M) budget would prioritize facilities that are most in need of maintenance and for which the economic cost of disruption would be highest.

In contrast to the need to focus on system reliability, much of the policy discussion about the inland waterways system centers on the user charges to support the Inland Waterways Trust Fund, which is dedicated to capital improvement projects.

The passage of an increase in the barge fuel tax by the 113th Congress only heightens the urgency of settling on a plan for maintenance, since under federal law any new revenues from the barge fuel tax can be used only for construction and not for O&M, for which the federal government pays the full cost. Because funds for capital projects raised by the barge fuel tax must be matched by the federal government, O&M competes directly with construction for federal general revenues. O&M now accounts for about 75% of the requested inland navigation budget (roughly $650 million annually). Without a new funding strategy that prioritizes O&M and repairs, repairs may continue to be deferred until reaching $20 million (the point at which they become classified as a capital expenditure), which would result in further deterioration and in an inefficient and less reliable system.

More reliance on a “user-pays” funding strategy for the commercial navigation system is feasible, would generate new revenues for maintenance, and would promote economic efficiency. In a climate of constrained federal funds and with O&M becoming a greater part of the inland navigation budget, it is reasonable to examine whether beneficiaries could help pay for the system to increase revenues for the system and improve economic efficiency. Indeed, Congress, in the 2014 Water Resources Reform and Development Act (Section 2004, Inland Waterways Revenue Studies), called for a study of whether and how the various beneficiaries of the waterways might be charged. A reconceived system of user charges would focus policy attention on a sustainable plan for system performance and efficiency. Since users are not responsible for the cost of O&M, strong incentives exist to overcapitalize the system. Dedicating revenues from users to O&M instead of only capital expenditures would focus maintenance spending on the assets that users most value and result in a system that is more cost-effective and efficient.

Commercial navigation is the primary beneficiary of the inland waterways, and commercial carriers impose significant marginal costs on the system. Charging commercial navigation beneficiaries for the costs associated with their use of the system is feasible. User charges may be restructured in a variety of ways. There is no single best option; the preferred choice for achieving a policy goal may be to combine one or more of the options, such as an increase in the barge fuel tax with user fees. Charging user fees on the basis of facility and segment usage would identify the parts of the waterways most valued by shippers and warranting maintenance. Multiple criteria would apply in choosing among the user charge options: ease of administration, revenue potential, distribution of burden across user groups, and design components that would reinforce the efficient use of resources and cost-effective expenditures. A trust fund for maintenance would ensure that all new funds collected are dedicated to inland navigation while providing greater latitude for USACE to disburse funds for maintaining the system according to criteria approved by Congress and with the involvement of the Inland Waterways Users Board, whose current advisory role is limited to capital spending.

Asset management can help prioritize maintenance and ascertain the level of funding required for the system. A standard process for assessing the ability of the inland waterways system to meet demand for commercial navigation service and for prioritizing spending for maintenance and repairs is lacking. For reasons explained in this report, the capital projects backlog and age of inland waterways infrastructure are not reliable indicators of the needs of the system or the amount of investment required. Regardless of who pays for the system, a program of economically efficient asset management (EEAM), fully implemented and linked to the budgeting process, would prioritize maintenance spending and ascertain the funding levels required for reliable freight service.

OVERVIEW OF U.S. INLAND WATERWAYS

The inland waterways navigation system is part of the U.S. marine transportation system (MTS), which provides for both passenger transport and domestic freight transportation infrastructure and coastal gateways for global trade (TRB 2004). The MTS includes navigable waterways and public and private ports on three coasts (Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf) and the Great Lakes as well as a network of inland waterways (CMTS 2008). It includes, by extension, inland highway and rail connections between ports and inland markets that ensure access to the water for shippers and customers in all 50 states (AASHTO 2013; CMTS 2008). The inland and intra-coastal waterways directly serve 41 states (Clark et al. 2012). The inland waterways system comprises navigable rivers linked by a series of major canals. Lock and dam infrastructure is the chief mechanism in enabling the upstream and downstream movement of cargo, and its installation is the most expensive component in providing for navigation service (McCartney et al. 1998).

Waterways are categorized as deep draft, shallow draft, both (allowing both shallow and deep draft vessels), or non-navigable, as the inland and intra-coastal waterways are access routes for deep draft vessels; with those included, the committee counts 41 (43 including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico). Some are coastal states (e.g., California, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland) with minor inland or intra-coastal waterways outside of the committee’s charter. For example, 12 states, ranked by ton-miles, account for 80% of ton-miles and 74% of tons moved by inland waterway.

Because of shallow drafts and seasonal changes in navigable depths, fixed infrastructure is required in many parts of the river system to maintain open navigation for commerce.

Most of the navigable channels are rivers located in the central and eastern half of the country. The largest river system is the Mississippi, which is navigable for about 1,800 miles from New Orleans, Louisiana, to Minneapolis, Minnesota, and has a large tributary system. In the western part of the country the largest inland waterway is the Columbia–Snake River system.

Water transportation contributes nearly $115 billion in value added to U.S. GDP, compared with nearly $120 billion from truck transportation, more than $60 billion from air transportation, more than $30 billion from rail transportation, and $15 billion from pipeline transportation

Upper Mississippi River

The Upper Mississippi River flows south from Minneapolis, Minnesota, 858 miles to the mouth of the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois. The navigation channel above Saint Louis, Missouri, is maintained at a minimum depth of 9 feet by a system of 27 locks and dams. Agriculture-related products dominate the commodity flows on this river. Farm products, primarily grain bound for export through the Gulf Coast deepwater ports, account for 32 percent of the tonnage. The Upper Mississippi also is the top regional source for corn and soybean exports. The second-ranked commodity is coal, which accounts for 22% of the tonnage. Much of the chemical tonnage (10 percent of the total) consists of fertilizers shipped upbound back to the farm belt. The dominant flows on the Upper Mississippi illustrate the modal competition and cooperation aspects of much waterborne commerce. For example, much of the grain is shipped by truck or rail to waterside grain elevators for transloading to barges, which then transload again to deepwater vessels in southern Louisiana for export to world grain markets. Trains also bring grain to the Gulf Coast, so for some farms there is at times a genuine modal choice between rail and water transport. However, grain transactions turn on margins as low as cents per bushel, so most shippers are essentially heavily dependent on one mode or the other. During the height of the harvest season, the capacities of both the rail and the inland waterways systems are stretched to keep up with shipping demand. The coal traffic on the system consists largely of low-sulfur coal that is shipped by unit train from the western coal fields to large transloading facilities at places like Cora and Metropolis, Illinois, where it is loaded onto barges for movement to waterside electric power plants on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers. Usually, competition among transport modes to serve a major shipper facility occurs when the facility site is being selected. Once the decision is made to locate a facility on a particular mode (e.g., a grain elevator or power plant is located on a river), goods movement tends to depend on that mode.

Lower Mississippi River

The Lower Mississippi River flows 956 miles from the mouth of the Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois, to the Mouth of Passes in the Gulf of Mexico. There are no navigation locks on this portion of the inland waterways system. Navigation depth is maintained by river training works such as groins and revetments and by periodic maintenance dredging of shoals. Operations on this segment typically feature large tows, since the size of tows is not constrained by lock sizes. Table 2-3 shows the commodity tonnages on the 720-mile stretch from Cairo to Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The commodity mix there is similar to that on the Upper Mississippi, but the quantities are 50 to 100 percent greater.

Ohio River System

The Ohio River begins at the junction of the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers at Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and flows in a southwesterly direction 981 miles to its mouth at Cairo, Illinois, where it empties into the Mississippi River. Navigation is maintained at a minimum 9-foot channel depth by 20 locks and dams on the Ohio River (Olmsted Lock will replace two older locks near the lower end of the river). Table 2-3 shows the commodity flow on the entire Ohio River system, which includes the Ohio mainstem and its tributaries. The Monongahela, Kanawha, and Tennessee Rivers contribute significant flow to the Ohio. Coal is the dominant commodity on the system, making up 59 percent of the tonnage in 2012. Most is steam coal, which moves both inbound and outbound on the system. Coal mines in Appalachia send coal to the river via conveyor belt, truck, and rail for shipment to river-located electric power generation plants. Those power plants also receive upbound coal from other sources, and there is still considerable movement of metallurgical coal on the Ohio and its tributaries. The second-ranked commodity group, crude materials (nearly 22 percent of the total), consists primarily of sand, gravel, and limestone. While rail lines run parallel along most of the Ohio, they are primarily part of the nation’s extensive east–west manufactured products and foodstuffs distribution system. As a practical matter, the large quantities of coal and crude materials moving on the Ohio could not easily be diverted to rail. Coal alone would require the railroads to handle more than 1 million additional carloads annually and to provide in excess of 26 more train movements per day (Kruse et al. 2012). Furthermore, most of the shipping and receiving facilities for this traffic are designed and operated specifically to handle barge shipments. Thus, as was the case for the Upper Mississippi, rail, truck, pipeline, and conveyor belts are complementary to water transport.

Gulf Intracoastal Waterway

The GIWW provides a protected route along the Gulf Coast from Saint Marks, Florida, to the Mexican border at Brownsville, Texas. The total distance is 1,109 miles, and the maintained minimum channel depth is 12 feet. The system includes 10 locks, which serve a variety of purposes. The Inner Harbor Navigation Canal lock at New Orleans connects the Mississippi River to the GIWW and overcomes elevation differences between the river and the canal. The lock is currently one of the most congested on the entire inland waterways system. As would be expected in view of the GIWW’s location in the largest petrochemical region of the United States, petroleum and chemicals dominate the system’s commodity flow. Together they made up 76.5 percent of the tonnage in 2012. Crude materials ranked third, at nearly 15 percent. Within these broad groups a wide variety of specific commodities are moved, in keeping with the region’s complex industrial base. Pipelines are the main competing and complementary mode, but the circumstances of individual plant locations and outputs defy any easy generalizations.

Illinois River

The Illinois extends 292 miles from Lockport, Illinois, to its mouth at the Mississippi River at Grafton, Illinois, just above Saint Louis. Above Lockport, various channels connect the Illinois River and the Mississippi River system to Lake Michigan at Chicago, Illinois. The Illinois has a minimum maintained channel depth of 9 feet and seven lock sites with single chambers 600 feet long by 110 feet wide. These dimensions require the typical tow of 15 jumbo barges to double lock, and the lack of auxiliary chambers means that any lock outage will shut down navigation. The Illinois is a typical moderate-use waterway. It moved 31 million tons in 2012. The commodity mix was similar to that on the Mississippi, but with a smaller proportion of coal and a greater proportion of petroleum and chemicals.

Columbia River System

The Columbia River has the longest inland navigation channel on the U.S. West Coast. The Columbia provides a shallow draft waterway (14-foot depth) from Kennewick, Washington, to Vancouver, Washington, and Portland, Oregon, a distance of approximately 225 miles. Below Portland, a deep draft channel (40 feet) extends approximately 100 miles to the river’s mouth at the Pacific Ocean. There are four navigation dams on the shallow draft section. Above Kennewick, the Snake River allows navigation for 140 miles upstream to Lewiston, Idaho. The Willamette River drains northwestern Oregon and flows into the Columbia near Portland, where it forms part of that city’s deep draft harbor. Agriculture dominates flows on the Columbia. Food and farm products constituted 53 percent of the tonnage in 2012. About 76 percent of these agricultural products were grain and soybeans shipped for export. The Columbia River is the top gateway for U.S. wheat exports. It accounts for about 16 percent of all food and farm products moved on the inland waterways and about 3 percent of all food and farm imports and exports. Crude materials, largely forest products and sand and gravel, made up another 20 percent of the tonnage. The river also plays an important role in distribution of petroleum products throughout the region. There are rail lines along both the north and the south shores of the Columbia River. They are running at or near capacity, with much of that capacity devoted to serving the intermodal container trade.

Commodity Trends by Corridor

  • Coal: Ohio River system, including the Allegheny and Monongahela Rivers;
  • Food and farm: Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers to New Orleans, Louisiana
  • Petrochemical: Mississippi River from Saint Louis, Missouri, to New Orleans
  • Manufactured goods: Mississippi River from Saint Louis to New Orleans
  • Crude materials: Ohio and Upper Mississippi Rivers (from Saint Louis) to New Orleans
  • Food & farm: Columbia River system, including Columbia, Snake, and Willamette Rivers;
  • Chemical goods: Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW)
  • Petroleum goods: GIWW.

As shown in Table 2-3, the principal commodities carried on inland waterways system corridors are coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, crude materials, manufactured goods, and manufactured equipment. Examination of annual commodity trends for several of the chief commodities on most of the primary corridors during the period 2000 to 2013 indicates adequate capacity in the system. Aside from petroleum products moving on the Lower Mississippi, commodity movement appears to be stable or declining for more than a decade for most corridor segments

Modal Shift to Road or Rail Resulting from Loss of Waterway Corridor

The Transportation Research Board’s Executive Committee wanted this study to cover possible impacts of a major diversion of freight from water on highway systems should a waterway fail because of deferred maintenance. In view of the volume that can be moved by one barge being equal to the payloads of many trucks, state officials have expressed concern about the consequences of massive numbers of heavy trucks replacing shipments that had moved by water for highway congestion and pavement and bridge infrastructure.

Age of Locks

Figure 2-8 shows a map of inland waterways lock infrastructure by original construction date. Figure 2-9 shows the average age of lock and dam infrastructure in comparison with other federal and state infrastructure and transportation assets. The average age of the locks in 1940 was less than 10 years; in 1980 the average age of the locks was about 30 years (whether or not major rehabilitation work was considered); in 2014 the average age was 59 years.

After rehabilitation is accounted for, in 2014 more than 50% of the locks were more than 50 years old

76% of barge cargo (in ton-miles) moves on just 22% of the 36,000 inland waterway miles. About 50% of the inland waterway ton-miles moves on 6 major corridors that represent 16% of the inland waterway miles—the Upper Mississippi River, the Illinois River, the Ohio River, the Lower Mississippi River, the Columbia River system, and the GIWW.

Some inland waterways segments have minimal or no freight traffic.

With shrinking resources for the system and growing demands on the USACE O&M budget, targeting commercial navigation investments mainly to portions of the system important for moving freight would be prudent.

Lost transportation time due to delays and lock unavailability (outages) is a cost to shippers and an important consideration in deciding on future investments. Systemwide, about 80 percent of lost transportation time is attributable to delays. On average, 49 percent of tows in 2013 were delayed across the 10 highest-tonnage locks, with an average length of tow delay of 3.8 hours. Some delay is expected for routine maintenance, weather, accidents, and other reasons, but delays can be affected by maintenance outages caused by decreases in the reliability of aging machinery or infrastructure. About 12% of lost time on the inland waterways system is due to scheduled closures and about 8% is due to unscheduled closures, which indicates that up to 20% of lost time could be addressed with more targeted O&M resources. Targeting O&M resources toward major facilities with frequent lockages and high volumes and where the lost time due to delay is significantly higher than the river average could improve navigation performance. Most lost service due to delay occurs at high-demand locks used for agricultural exports and so may be caused by congestion related to peaks in seasonal shipping. Data are not available to explain the causes of delay at locks, which makes up 80 percent of lost transportation hours. Delays might be attributable to seasonal peak volumes due to weather, harvest, under-capacity, or other causes. Collection of data and development of performance metrics would enhance understanding of whether delay problems could be most efficiently addressed by more targeted O&M, traffic management, capacity enhancement, or some combination of these measures. Some high-use locks are located on waterways designated as low or moderate use, which has implications for how to allocate funds across parts of the system. This situation can occur because of seasonal peaks in the movement of certain commodities, such as harvested food and farm products, or from navigation closures caused by annually recurring weather conditions, such as ice or flooding. The tonnage moved through each lock during peak demand periods, as well as the type and value of the cargo, could be considered in funding allocations instead of considering only average annual waterway ton-miles. Likewise, some rivers and waterborne corridors may move as much or more tonnage on a seasonal basis as rivers classified as high use but receive low-use classification on the basis of annual ton-miles of transport rather than seasonal peak ton-miles.

The advanced age of lock and dam infrastructure is often used to communicate funding needs for the system. Age is not a good indicator of lock condition. A substantial number of locks have been rehabilitated, which would be expected to restore performance to its original condition if not better. Dating the age of assets from the time of the last major rehabilitation, as is done for highway infrastructure such as bridges, would be more accurate. Furthermore, with some exceptions, little correlation exists between the age of locks and their performance as measured by delay experienced by system users. A more useful approach for targeting funds to improve system performance than focusing on age as a proxy for lock functioning would be to identify waterway segments and facilities where the lost time due to delay (based on millions of tons delayed) is substantially higher than the system average.

Federal Role in the Inland Waterways System

The inland waterways infrastructure is managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and funded from the USACE budget.

USACE, under its Civil Works Program headed by the Assistant Secretary for Civil Works, plans, constructs, operates, and maintains a large water resources infrastructure that includes locks and dams for inland navigation; maintenance of harbor channel depths; dams, levees, and coastal barriers for flood risk management; hydropower generation facilities; and recreation. The primary USACE Civil Works mission areas are support of navigation for freight transportation and public safety; reduction of flood and storm damage; and protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, such as the rebuilding of wetlands and the performance of environmental mitigation for USACE facilities. Hydropower generation is an important activity of USACE, although it has not been considered a primary mission. Other USACE responsibilities include recreation, maintenance of water supply infrastructure (municipal water and wastewater facilitates), and disaster relief and remediation beyond flood disaster relief (e.g., remediation of formerly used nuclear sites

Whereas some federal agencies have broad authorities, Congress authorizes each capital investment for capacity expansion, facility replacement, or major rehabilitation of USACE water infrastructure projects. A construction project generally originates with a request to a congressional office from communities, businesses or other organizations, and state and local governments for federal assistance.1 Since 1974, the process for authorizing federal water resources projects, including infrastructure for freight transportation, has been the omnibus bill typically called the Water Resources Development Act (WRDA).2 On the basis of this legislation, Congress authorizes individual capital projects and numerous other USACE activities and provides policy direction in areas such as project delivery, revenue generation,

Benefit–cost analysis is the primary criterion used in selecting capital expenditures projects for funding. Projects that pass a minimum threshold for determining that the benefit exceeds the cost are eligible for congressional authorization and funding.

Two types of congressional authorizations are required for a construction project—one for investigation and one for project implementation.3 First, authority is provided for a feasibility study in which the local USACE district investigates engineering feasibility, formulates alternative plans, conducts benefit–cost analysis, and assesses environmental impacts under the National Environmental Policy Act.4 The study results are conveyed to Congress through a Chief of Engineers Report (Chief’s Report) that contains either a favorable or an unfavorable recommendation for each project. Study results also are submitted to the executive office of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), which applies its own fiscal, benefit–cost, and other criteria to assess whether projects warrant funding according to executive branch objectives. Congress considers USACE study results, recommendations of OMB, and other factors in choosing projects to authorize. Thus, both the projects selected for initial study and the project authorizations are at the discretion of Congress.

After Congress authorizes a project, it becomes eligible to receive implementation funding in annual Energy and Water Development appropriations acts. The appropriations process begins with the submission of the annual President’s budget. To be included in the President’s budget, authorized projects must compete within the overall USACE program ceiling not only for initial funding but also for continued annual funding throughout the project’s life cycle

Once Congress receives the President’s budget request, it is “marked up” by the House and Senate Appropriations Committees, where project funding levels are adjusted in response to congressional priorities. Even if an authorized project has received initial construction funding, there is no assurance that it will receive sufficient appropriations each year to provide for an efficient construction schedule. The actual funding for the project over its life cycle may be much less suitable.

  1. At this early stage, USACE typically engages in an advisory role to answer technical questions or to assess the level of interest in possible projects and the support of nonfederal entities (state, tribal, county, or local agencies and governments) that may become sponsors.
  2. The 2014 authorizing legislation is titled the Water Resources Reform and Development Act (WRRDA).
  3. If the geographic area was investigated in previous studies, the study may be authorized by a resolution of either the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee or the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee.
  4. According to WRRDA 2014, at any point during a feasibility study, the Secretary of the Army may terminate the study when it is clear that a project in the public interest is not possible for technical, legal, or financial reasons.
  5. After a project is authorized, modifications beyond a certain cost and scope require additional congressional authorization. A previous National Research Council (NRC) report (2012) encouraged less reliance on WRDA as the main vehicle for authorizing projects for USACE infrastructure. The traditional focus on WRDA for authorizing large new construction projects in particular is less relevant to a system that is mostly “built out” and for which the main concern is a sustainable source of funding for ongoing operations and maintenance (O&M) and major repairs. Although WRDA drives capital funding for freight transportation on the inland waterways, it is largely disconnected from federal legislative processes and efforts related to other freight modes. Similarly, the goal of the USACE planning process is to determine whether a navigation project is eligible for funding, not to assess whether the project will be the most efficient option for meeting national freight transportation needs and economic interests given the availability of other modes. (The benefit–cost analyses required for the authorization of navigation projects must consider other modes to a degree, as described later in this chapter.)

A national freight system perspective on the efficiency of the nation’s freight network is generally lacking, and no mechanism exists for prioritizing spending across modes.

Operations and Maintenance O&M projects can be authorized under WRDA, but it has not often been used for this purpose (see NRC 2012, Table 2-2, for exceptions in WRDA 2007). USACE headquarters sets priorities for O&M investments as part of the budgeting process on the basis of information gathered from USACE districts and divisions. Eight USACE divisions coordinate projects and budgets in 38 district offices across the United States. Districts develop plans, priorities, and rankings for investigations, construction, and O&M and submit them to USACE divisions. Divisions prioritize projects across their districts and provide division-wide rankings of projects to USACE headquarters. USACE headquarters considers division priorities and rankings, administration budget priorities, and other factors in ranking requests.6 The number of projects funded each year depends on the annual budget appropriation by Congress.

The local assessment of assets and maintenance needs follows general guidelines, but it has many local variations. For example, districts may develop their own asset management systems for assessing and communicating the condition of infrastructure and level of service being provided for navigation and O&M and repair needs. According to a past NRC report, with respect to water resources funding, “neither the Congress nor the administration provides clear guiding principles and concepts that the USACE might use in prioritizing OMR [operations, maintenance, and repair] needs and investments” (NRC 2012, 11). Full benefit–cost analysis is applied only to construction and not to O&M,7 which is appropriate given the costs of conducting benefit–cost analysis relative to the cost of O&M projects.

Distinctions Among O&M, Major Rehabilitation, and Construction USACE separates projects labeled as “major rehabilitation” from its O&M budget. Major rehabilitation projects meet the following criteria established in a series of Water Resources Development Acts from 1986 to 2014.8 ? Requires approval by the Secretary of the Army and construction is funded out of the Construction General Civil Works appropriation for USACE. ? Includes economically justified structural work for restoration of a major project feature that extends the life of the feature significantly or enhances operational efficiency. ? Requires a minimum of 2 fiscal years to complete. ? Costs more than $20 million in capital outlays for reliability improvement projects or more than $2 million in capital outlays for efficiency improvement projects. These thresholds are adjusted annually by regulation and are subject to negotiation.

Major rehabilitation projects are treated as capital projects for new construction in the budgeting process instead of being considered an expense of maintaining the system. The decision to classify major rehabilitations a capital expenditure instead of as an O&M expense is arbitrary.9

FUNDING FOR THE INLAND WATERWAYS NAVIGATION SYSTEM

Cost-Sharing Rules Before 1978, the inland navigation system was funded almost entirely through general revenues collected from taxpayers. Congress transformed funding for the inland waterways by passing two pieces of legislation: the Inland Waterways Revenue Act of 1978 and the Water Resources Development Act of 1986, which created the funding framework followed today. This legislation established a tax on diesel fuel for commercial vessels paid by the barge industry and an Inland Waterways Trust Fund (IWTF) to pay for construction with fuel tax revenues. It also increased the nonfederal cost-sharing requirements for inland navigation construction projects.

The required cost share depends on whether the navigation project is classified as a capital cost or as O&M. For single-purpose navigation projects and multiple-purpose projects assigned to the navigation budget, the federal government pays 100 percent of O&M costs, 50 percent of capital costs (including capacity expansion, replacement, and major rehabilitation), and 100 percent of rehabilitation costs up to $20 million (costs for a single repair or set of repairs that exceed this amount are considered major rehabilitation and a capital cost). The waiving or adjustment of cost-sharing requirements for individual projects is infrequent and typically requires authorization by Congress. The federal share for commercial navigation is paid via general revenues. The commercial users’ share is paid for with a diesel fuel tax per gallon via the IWTF; the tax is collected by the Internal Revenue Service. The fuel tax was initially set at $0.04 per gallon and is not indexed to inflation. In 1986 legislation, the tax was set to rise to its current level of $0.20 per gallon, where it has remained until 2014, when the 113th Congress approved an increase in the barge fuel tax to $0.29 per gallon. In contrast to the cost share for navigation, the O&M costs for nonnavigation projects are paid for partly by sponsors. The federal share depends on the type of water resource project (see Table 3-1). For many project types (e.g., levees), the nonfederal sponsor is responsible for O&M once construction is complete. Furthermore, inland waterways feasibility studies to determine the eligibility of a navigation project for funding are entirely a federal expense; in contrast, for deepwater navigation and nonnavigation projects, the federal share for feasibility studies is 50 percent.

Patterns and Trends in Funding for the Inland Waterways System

In terms of constant dollars, funding for construction and O&M for lock and dam facilities is at its lowest point in more than 20 years and is on a downward trajectory (see Figures 3-1a and 3-1b). The balance of the IWTF, which is used to pay 50 percent of construction costs, has declined. The fund was at its highest level, $413 million, in 2002 (see Figure 3-2). The balance fell sharply between 2005 and 2010 as expenditures for inland waterways exceeded fuel tax collections and interest on the trust fund balance. Reasons for the decline include increased appropriations, lower fuel tax revenues than in previous years, large construction costs, and construction cost overruns. Capital projects are funded incrementally by Congress through the annual budgeting and appropriations process. Incremental federal funding, an increasingly common procedure in which only a portion of the total budget for a project is appropriated, contributes to project delivery delays and higher costs (NRC 2011; NRC 2012, 29, gives another example on the Lower Monongahela River). Between 2005 and 2010, Congress made a conscious effort to “spend down” the IWTF to accelerate project completions and reduce the size of the backlog of authorized projects.

Capital Projects Backlog

A substantial number of water resources projects that have been authorized by Congress via WRDA remain unfunded through the appropriations process. These projects are known as the

Congress considers the recommendations of USACE and OMB, but the selection of waterways projects for authorization has a long history of being driven largely by political and local concerns (Ferejohn 1974).

While concerns about the backlog have been expressed, its size is not a reliable indicator of the funding needed for the inland navigation system for at least three reasons. First, O&M spending is not reflected in the backlog. With the aging of the system, maintenance has become a higher priority. Second, navigation projects make up only a portion of the backlog ($4.1 billion) (CRS 2011); most of the backlog relates to waterways infrastructure serving other purposes such as flood control.

Third, not all of the projects in the navigation backlog are priorities. In contrast to its practice for other modes, Congress authorizes and appropriates funds on a project-by-project basis. Benefit–cost analysis is used to determine whether a construction projects meets a minimum threshold of eligibility for pursuing authorization and appropriations and is generally suitable for this purpose,16 but the lack of a prioritization process based on a formal assessment of system needs has resulted in the authorization of more projects than can be funded within the constraints of the budget. The current practice is for OMB to set a minimum benefit–cost ratio that projects must meet to be included in the President’s annual budget request.17 While benefit– cost analysis is used in determining whether a project meets a minimum threshold for authorization, there is no indication that projects are further ranked against each other during the authorization process (GAO 2010). Because more projects are authorized than can be funded, priorities are sorted out in the budgeting and appropriations process, in which both the executive branch and Congress participate. IWUB, as part of a capital projects business

For these reasons, a method for prioritizing projects on the basis of the service needs of the system may be more useful than an attempt to estimate and seek funding for the entire backlog. As for O&M, a standard process is needed for prioritizing spending for capital projects for construction and major rehabilitation and to ascertain the level of funding required across the system to maintain reliable freight service. (Prioritization is discussed in Chapter 4.) A number of temporary measures have been

FEDERAL INVOLVEMENT COMPARED WITH OTHER TRANSPORTATION MODES

States and private enterprise led the initial building of inland waterways infrastructure and charged for use of the waterways. Federal involvement in the inland waterways system began in the 18th century, when the scope and scale of inland waterways projects grew beyond what any private entity or state could or would take on, especially without the ability to realize a monetary return on investment. Congress made these federal investments to promote inland waterways commerce, which was central to the economic development of the United States. This history has led to a unique federal role in the inland waterways system among all the freight transportation modes. Today, waterborne transportation is the only freight mode for which Congress authorizes and appropriates funds (for construction and O&M) on a project-by-project basis. Federal management and decision-making responsibilities for freight transportation generally are fragmented across jurisdictional lines in Congress, multiple federal agencies, and different silos of funding. Whereas USACE and the U.S. Coast Guard (part of the Department of Homeland Security) manage the marine and inland waterways systems, the U.S. Department of Transportation has responsibilities for highway, aviation, rail, and pipeline. Various congressional committees are responsible for authorizations and appropriations for the different modes. Decisions about inland waterways investments, including ports, channels, and infrastructure, are made largely at the federal level.18

However, most decisions about highway investments are made at the state and metropolitan levels. For ports, investment decisions are made mainly by independent private entities and sometimes by state or bi-state port authorities. As private transport industries, railroads and pipelines make their own decisions about investments.

Public and private shares of funding also differ across modes. Highways, aviation, ports (harbor and channel dredging and maintenance), and the inland waterways all receive federal aid for capital costs. In addition, the inland waterways, harbors, and channels receive federal general revenues support for O&M.

Rail and pipeline, with which the inland waterways system competes to some degree, are almost entirely private enterprises, with minimal federal assistance for infrastructure.

For highways, the federal government pays a significant share for new construction, but O&M is a state and local financial responsibility.

The federal government, through general revenues, pays more for water transportation as a percentage of total O&M and construction costs compared with federal contributions to highways and rail. For the inland waterways system, federal support is used to cover a large shortfall between the fees paid by users and total system costs.

In contrast, fees paid by the users of highway and rail modes cover a much greater share of the capital and O&M costs of those transportation systems. General federal tax revenues pay about 90% of total inland waterways system costs

This compares with virtually no federal general revenue support for rail system users and pipeline, and historically only about 25 percent federal support for highways, which are primarily derived from user fees.

Federal Subsidies for the Various Freight Transportation Modes

Federal subsidies for the various freight modes are complicated and contested among advocates for the modes, in part because of disagreements about (a) direct subsidies that are funded by various public sources and (b) indirect subsidies that result from costs imposed on the public (externalities) that are not part of market transactions between shippers and carriers. No authoritative study has estimated either direct or indirect subsidies across the various freight modes, although a previous Transportation Research Board study (TRB 1996) developed and pilot-tested a methodology for estimating freight external costs.

Assessing direct subsidies is more straightforward among the modes with which water competes (rail, pipeline, and, to a much lesser degree, trucking). Freight railroads are private entities that fund the vast bulk of their operations and capital and maintenance spending from their own funds. Limited federal funds are available for grade separation projects (to separate traffic for safety and mobility), a modest federal loan guarantee program is available (principally for short lines), and state governments occasionally provide public funding for such purposes as raising bridges or tunnels for double-stack trains or to improve rail access to state ports. Although public funding is minimal in proportion to the $20 billion to $25 billion railroads have invested in capital stock annually since 2007,22 railroad modal competitors point out that many railroad rights-of-way were initially given in the 19th century by the federal government and states to encourage railroad development. Because pipelines are entirely private, the evaluation of subsidies is easier than for rail. Although long-distance truck–barge competition is unlikely because of the much higher cost of truck movements per ton-mile, there may be short segments in which truck and barge would compete. The trucking assessment of competitive subsidies is most complex because trucks use highways that are shared with passengers. Although both freight and passenger operators pay fuel taxes and other user fees, there is continued debate about whether the largest and heaviest trucks pay their share of the costs of building and maintaining highways (GAO 2012). Moreover, after decades of relying almost exclusively on federal and state user fees to fund interstate and intercity highways, in the past decade Congress has used general funds to supplement user fee revenues to the Highway Trust Fund (HTF) for the federal share of highway capital spending (CBO 2014). (Improved fuel economy and political opposition to raising fuel taxes have resulted in insufficient user fees into the HTF to pay for the federal share of highway capital improvements.)

Trucking is involved in at least one segment of all freight moves and often two,

Whereas trucks can serve almost all O-D pairs because of the ubiquity of roads and highways, and railroads reach many OD pairs as well, waterways are far more limited.

DECISIONS ABOUT FEDERAL FUNDING AND BENEFICIARY PAYMENTS FOR THE COMMERCIAL INLAND WATERWAYS SYSTEM

In a climate of constrained federal funds and with O&M becoming a greater part of the inland navigation budget, a pressing policy issue is how to pay to preserve the inland waterways system for commercial navigation. The structures (locks and dams) built and maintained for freight transportation have resulted in beneficiaries beyond commercial navigation. It is reasonable and, from an economic perspective, potentially efficiency enhancing to consider whether these beneficiaries could help pay for the system. Congress, in the 2014 WRRDA (Section 2004, Inland Waterways Revenue Studies), called for a study of whether and how the various beneficiaries of the waterways might be charged. The sections below assess the available evidence on benefits of the inland waterways used for freight transportation and the economic and practical considerations in charging for the benefits received.

Commercial navigation is the primary beneficiary of the inland waterways system. Benefits beyond commercial navigation may include hydropower generation, recreation, flood damage avoidance, municipal water supply, irrigation, higher property values for property owners, sewage assimilation, mosquito control, lower consumer costs because the availability of barge shipping may result in more competitive railroad pricing (referred to as water-compelled rates), and environmental benefits associated with lower fuel emissions of barge compared with other modes.

A possible national benefit of investing in the inland waterways is the environmental advantage that barge may have over other modes: barge’s lower fuel usage per ton-mile than other transportation modes may result in lower air emissions. Whether barge or rail is the more energy-efficient mode (measured as fuel use per ton-mile) depends in large part on the water

The total federal share of the cost of the inland waterways system is estimated to be about 90 percent (TRB 2009). The federal share is roughly 25 percent for the highways used by motor carriers and 0 percent for pipelines and nearly so for railroads (both private industries for which the federal role is primarily one of safety and environmental regulation). Whereas federal general revenues cover all O&M expenses for the inland waterways, states pay 100 percent of the O&M expenses, mostly from user fees, for intercity highways used by motor carriers. O&M expenses for railroads and pipelines are paid for by the private industries responsible for these modes.

Examination of whether beneficiaries could help pay for the system is rational and would improve economic efficiency. Commercial navigation beneficiaries are a viable option, since commercial carriers impose significant marginal costs.

A benefit–cost analysis prepared by USACE is the primary source of technical information that Congress uses during the authorization process in deciding when spending is justified for capital projects. While benefit–cost analyses have been used for determining whether a project meets a minimum threshold for funding, they have not been used to rank projects, and the result has been far more projects being authorized than can be afforded within the constraints of the budget. A method for prioritizing projects on the basis of the service needs of the system would be more useful than an attempt to estimate and seek funding for the existing backlog.

As mentioned, USACE’s primary mission with respect to navigation is to provide conditions that enable the passage of commercial traffic. The main cost of providing these conditions is the maintenance of lock and dam infrastructure, but the maintenance of channels and pools is part of the cost. USACE has developed a conceptual framework (described in more detail below) that considers the age of infrastructure and other elements consistent with EEAM to prioritize repairs that would cost-effectively extend the life of an asset or critical component of the asset and achieve a reliable navigation system. The elements include the probability of failure of the infrastructure; infrastructure usage (demand), defined as whether the waterway has low, moderate, or high levels of freight traffic; and the economic consequences of failure to shippers and carriers. This approach recognizes the importance of economic consequences for strategic investment instead of assuming that all navigation infrastructure needs to be maintained at its original condition. For USACE, the goal of prioritizing investments is to produce the greatest national economic development benefit, which for commercial navigation has meant maximizing reductions in the cost of cargo transported by using USACE waterway infrastructure. In practical terms, this means reducing the risk of physical failure and maintaining a target level of delays.

Although the specific procedures of the approach are just beginning to be implemented and refined and often are not clear, the framework is being applied at program, district, and headquarters levels to guide the identification of maintenance needs and funding requests. USACE intends to use the framework to implement a standardized assessment of assets across the system (outcomes-based assessment). The assessment is planned to cover all important aspects of asset management. However, USACE has not fully developed a set of measures or a standard methodology for assessing risk across all assets in the inland waterways system. Additional considerations that would need attention are described in the section of this chapter on implementation.

FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS

A standard process is lacking for assessing the ability of the inland waterways system to meet demand for commercial navigation service and for prioritizing spending for maintenance and repairs. An asset management program focused on economic efficiency, fully implemented and linked to the budgeting process, would prioritize maintenance spending and ascertain the funding levels required for reliable freight service. A well-executed program of asset management would promote rational and data-driven investment decisions based on system needs and minimize the broader influences that affect the budgeting process. USACE has adopted a generally appropriate framework for asset management that is mostly consistent with EEAM, but it is not yet fully developed or deployed across districts. The framework recognizes the importance of economic consequences for strategic investments and does not assume, as in the past, that all navigation infrastructure needs to be maintained at its original condition. The approach appropriately includes assessment of three main elements that follow from EEAM: the probability of failure of the infrastructure; infrastructure usage (demand), defined as whether the waterway has low, moderate, or high levels of freight traffic; and the economic consequences of failure to shippers and carriers.

This chapter discusses funding options for the inland waterways commercial navigation system other than reliance for the most part on federal general revenues. The immediate users of the inland waterways are the companies operating the barge tows that move commercial freight. They are the focus of this chapter. However, the burden of payments by the barge industry is not borne fully by the operators, and they do not enjoy all the benefits. The industries that use barge shipping benefit from the low cost of shipping their products, mostly commodities that are low in value relative to their weight such as coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, crude materials, and to a lesser degree manufactured goods and equipment. These commodities are sold for a price that is set by the market. If barge companies become the direct payers of a new user charge, their cost may be passed on in whole or in part in the form of increased costs to the shippers of these commodities and, in turn, to the producers and consumers of the commodities. The first section below describes the taxes or fees that might be paid by companies operating the barge tows that move commercial freight. The options could be used alone or in various combinations.

In recent years, proposals have been made to add to or replace the inland waterways barge fuel tax with user-specific fees. In contrast to a tax, user-specific fees are direct charges paid by an identifiable user in exchange for the opportunity to pass through a lock or use a portion of the waterways. Failure to pay the fee results in being excluded from the use of a service (i.e., denial of passage through a lock, use of a particular segment, or passage during times of peak traffic).

Direct Promotion of Efficient Use of Waterway Resources

The design of a user payment strategy can promote a waterways system that uses resources more efficiently (CBO 1992). The requirement that users of the system pay for its costs generates signals concerning the value of the system to the users and whether the benefits of the system justify the costs. In the private sector, payments by purchasers of a good or service send a clear signal concerning whether the purchasers are willing to pay the costs associated with providing it. Similarly, if users of the inland waterways system pay for the costs of navigation service on the various parts of the system (on a river segment or at a lock and dam facility), the payments show which parts of the system are cost-effective components of the national freight transportation system and should be maintained (GAO 2008). Parts of the system for which shippers are not able or willing to pay may be discontinued or justified under revenue streams other than federal navigation funding, as discussed later.

Conclusions

Debates about funding for the inland waterways system have long centered on the level of funding required, the roles of the federal government and users in paying for the system, and how users and other beneficiaries could be charged. These issues deserve renewed attention in light of shrinking federal budgets, declining appropriations for the inland waterways system, and increasing maintenance needs for its infrastructure.

SUMMARY OF MAJOR CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS

The policy context in which these issues were considered and the committee’s conclusions are summarized below. Three main messages emerge, as follows:

  1. Reliability and performance of the inland waterways freight system are the priorities for funding.
  2. Reliability and performance will depend more on investments in operations and maintenance (O&M) than on capital expenditures for larger locks.
  3. More reliance on a user-pays approach to funding the inland waterways for commercial navigation is feasible, would provide additional revenues for maintenance, and would promote economic efficiency for the system.

POLICY CONTEXT. The infrastructure of the federal inland waterways system is managed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and funded through USACE’s navigation budget. The nation’s inland waterways include more than 36,000 miles of commercially navigable channels and roughly 240 working lock sites. The chief and most expensive component of providing for navigation service is the installation and maintenance of lock and dam infrastructure to enable the upstream and downstream movement of cargo. Historically, the federal government invested in the building of the inland waterways system to aid in the physical expansion of the United States and the growth of the U.S. economy by facilitating cargo shipments. Before 1978, the federal government paid all costs associated with construction and maintenance of the inland waterways. Legislation passed in 1978 and 1986 established the current funding and cost-sharing framework. Today, 11,000 miles of the inland waterways are subject to a federal fuel tax paid by the barge industry via the Inland Waterways Trust Fund to cover up to 50% of the cost of construction and major rehabilitation of lock and dam infrastructure.

The federal government pays 50 percent of construction costs from general revenues and 100 percent of the cost of O&M (by budgetary definition, O&M includes repairs up to $20 million; repairs that exceed $20 million and meet other criteria are considered major rehabilitation and classified as a capital expenditure). Although policy debates about funding for the inland waterways have focused on capital projects, O&M, which is paid for entirely with federal general revenues, now accounts for three-fourths of the annual budget request for inland navigation.

Because of historical precedent, the federal role in the management and funding of the inland waterways for commercial navigation is greater than for other freight modes. The total federal share of the cost of the inland waterways system is estimated to be about 90%t. The federal share is roughly 25% for the highways used by motor carriers and 0 percent for pipelines and nearly so for railroads (both private industries for which the federal role is primarily one of safety and environmental regulation). Whereas federal general revenues cover all O&M expenses for the inland waterways, states pay 100% of the O&M expenses, mostly from user fees, for intercity highways used by motor carriers. O&M expenses for railroads and pipelines are paid for by the private industries responsible for these modes.

With the exception of a one-time infusion of funds from federal economic stimulus legislation in 2009, the funds appropriated for inland navigation have declined over the past decade in terms of constant dollars for both O&M and construction. The level of funding required to sustain a reliable inland waterways system is not clear. The level of service required from the system, and therefore the parts of the existing system that need to be maintained, has not yet been defined. USACE does not have established systemwide guidance and procedures for the assessment of inland waterways infrastructure and the prioritization of maintenance and repair spending for reliable commercial navigation. In view of stagnant federal appropriations, system users have recognized that they need to pay more and supported an increase in the barge fuel tax by the 113th Congress. However, the increase will not be sufficient to maintain the system and only heightens the urgency of settling on a plan for maintenance, since under federal law any new revenues from the barge fuel tax can be used only for construction and not for O&M. Moreover, because funds raised by the barge fuel tax for capital projects must be matched by the federal government, O&M competes directly with construction for federal general revenue funds. Without a new funding strategy that prioritizes O&M, maintenance may be deferred until it reaches $20 million (the point at which it becomes classified as a capital expenditure), which would result in further deterioration and in a less cost-effective and less reliable system.

USACE has missions and management responsibilities that extend beyond providing for commercial navigation. With the authorization of Congress, USACE, under its Civil Works Program headed by the Assistant Secretary for Civil Works, plans, constructs, operates, and maintains the following: lock and dam infrastructure for commercial shipping; channel depths required for ports and harbors; dams, levees, and coastal barriers for flood risk management; and hydropower generation facilities. Other USACE responsibilities include maintenance of water supply infrastructure (municipal water and wastewater facilitates) and provision of waterborne recreation (i.e., boating). For the most part, these missions are independent of one another, since most projects are authorized for a single purpose. However, for many navigation projects, the availability of pools behind dams has allowed others to benefit from water supply for municipal, industrial, and farming purposes and for recreation. Any decisions about funding for navigation will need to consider the implications for this broader range of beneficiaries.

CONCLUSIONS

The following considerations warrant particular attention in decisions about funding for the inland waterways system.

  1. The Inland Waterways System Is a Small but Important Component of the National Freight System

The role of the inland waterways system in national freight transportation has changed significantly since the system was built to promote the early economic development of the nation. Today barges carry a relatively small but steady portion of freight, mainly bulk commodities that include in rough order of importance coal, petroleum and petroleum products, food and farm products, chemicals and related products, crude materials, manufactured goods, and manufactured equipment. Annual trends in inland waterways shipments show that freight traffic is static or declining. Overall demand for the inland waterways system is static, whereas demand for the rail and truck modes is growing. In recent years, the inland waterways system has transported 6 to 7 percent of all domestic cargo (measured in ton-miles). The truck mode has carried the greatest share of freight, followed by rail, pipeline, and water.

  1. The Most Critical Need for the Inland Waterways System Is a Sustainable and Well-Executed Plan for Maintaining System Reliability and Performance That Ensures Efficient Use of Limited Navigation Resources Lost transportation

The time due to delays and lock unavailability (outages) is a cost to shippers and an important consideration in deciding on future investments. System-wide, about 80 percent of lost transportation time is attributable to delays. On average, 49 percent of tows in 2013 were delayed across the 10 highest-tonnage locks, with an average length of tow delay of 3.8 hours. While some delay is expected for routine maintenance, weather, accidents, and other reasons, lost transportation hours (delays and unavailabilities) can be affected by maintenance outages related to decreased reliability of aging machinery or infrastructure. Lost transportation hours also can be affected by capacity limitations, which may be intermittent or seasonal. About 12 percent of lost time on the inland waterways system is due to scheduled closures and about 8 percent is due to unscheduled closures. Thus, 20 percent of lost transportation time could be addressed with more targeted O&M resources. Directing O&M resources toward major facilities with frequent lockages and high volumes and where the lost time due to delay is significantly higher than the river average could improve navigation performance. Data are not available on the reasons for delay. Delays might be attributable to intermittent or seasonal peaks in volume due to weather, harvest, undercapacity, or other causes. Most lost time due to delay is at locks with periods of high demand often related to peaks in seasonal shipping, mainly for agricultural exports.

Furthermore, the inland waterways cover a vast geographic area, but the freight flows are highly concentrated. Seventy-six percent of barge cargo (in ton-miles) moves on just 22% of the 36,000 inland waterway miles. About 50 percent of the inland waterway ton-miles moves on six major corridors—the Upper Mississippi River, the Illinois River, the Ohio River, the Lower Mississippi River, the Columbia River system, and the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway—which represent 16 percent of the total waterway miles. Some inland waterway segments have minimal or no freight traffic. The nation needs a funding strategy that targets funds to waterway segments and facilities essential to freight transportation and away from places that are not as important. This “triage” is already occurring in USACE’s budgeting process.

  1. More Reliance on a User-Pays Approach to Funding the Commercial Navigation System Is Feasible and Could Generate New Revenues for Maintenance While Promoting Economic Efficiency

In a climate of constrained federal funds, and with O&M becoming a greater part of the inland navigation budget, it is reasonable to examine whether beneficiaries could help pay for the system to increase revenues for the system and improve economic efficiency. Indeed, Congress, in the 2014 Water Resources Reform and Development Act (Section 2004, Inland Waterways Revenue Studies), called for a study of whether and how the various beneficiaries of the waterways might be charged. Federal general revenues presently cover most of the cost of the inland waterways system. Commercial navigation users, the primary identifiable beneficiaries of the system, pay a share of the construction costs through a barge fuel tax, but none of the costs of O&M.

A system more reliant on user payments would provide needed revenue for maintenance and promote economic efficiency. It also would be more consistent with the federal posture toward other freight transportation modes. Setting user charges to move the inland waterways system closer to economic efficiency would provide for more adequate maintenance for the important parts of the system and contribute to a more efficient national freight transportation system. Economic efficiency is promoted when user charges are first used to recover the O&M costs of the inland waterways and when user fees relate directly to the service provided. In the long run, user payments structured properly to include O&M and depreciation could also provide enough revenue to replace components of the system as they wear out. User charges for the inland waterways system can take the form of a dedicated tax such as the current fuel tax, a user fee, or some combination. The fuel tax can be an important source of revenue, but revenue potential alone is not sufficient for judging a funding strategy. User fees (segment- or facility-specific) instead of or in addition to the fuel tax are an option to consider as part of a comprehensive funding approach. Criteria for choosing among the user payment options include the following: promotion of efficient use of waterway resources, distribution of burden, ease of administration, promotion of user support for cost-effective expenditures, and requirements for congressional authorization. No single payment alternative offers a perfect choice; for example, the preferred option for achieving a policy goal may combine an increase in the barge fuel tax with other user fees.

To gain support from commercial navigation users, any additional revenues from users would be dedicated to the inland waterways system to ensure a source of funds for meeting system priorities and to respond to concerns of users that new payments intended for navigation could be reappropriated for other purposes. A revolving trust fund for maintenance would help ensure that all new funds collected are dedicated to inland navigation. Rules and conditions for managing the fund would be set by Congress if such a fund were authorized. The fund would be administered by USACE, and the Inland Waterways Users Board’s advisory role, which is currently limited to capital spending for construction, could be broadened to include spending for O&M and repairs. Amounts from the Inland Waterways Trust Fund are disbursed through congressional appropriations under current practice, which can result in delays in funding and deferred maintenance with increased costs. Direct administration of the trust fund would allow the spending of O&M funds as needed to provide reliable freight service and avoid the increased costs associated with deferred maintenance.

Because of constraints on its budget, USACE has already begun identifying waterways and facilities where commercial navigation is essential to national freight transportation or where significant commercial traffic continues. A policy and a process for identifying the components of the system essential for freight transportation are needed. A path to removing the cost of parts of the system not essential for freight service presently charged to the federal inland navigation budget may further the prospect of shifting to a user-based funding approach for commercial navigation service. Alternative plans and potential funding mechanisms are available for segments and facilities that are deemed not essential to freight transportation but that may provide other benefits.

Deciding the amount beneficiaries would need to pay for the commercial navigation system and how to allocate the costs among beneficiaries would be complex tasks. The economic value of parts of the system to commercial navigation beneficiaries would need to be identified, and a systemwide assessment of the assets required to achieve a reliable level of freight service would need to be made (see next conclusion).

  1. Asset Management Can Help Prioritize Maintenance and Ascertain the Level of Funding Required for the System

Regardless of who pays for the system, a standard process for prioritizing spending of available funds is needed. The capital projects backlog is not a reliable indicator of the amount of funding required for the system. A modest amount of the backlog is for navigation projects. A portion of the navigation backlog includes major rehabilitation to maintain the system, but it does not include O&M. Furthermore, the navigation backlog may include projects that are a lower priority for spending. Congress has long authorized and appropriated USACE capital projects on a project-by-project basis. A benefit–cost analysis prepared by USACE is the primary source of technical information that Congress uses during the authorizations process in deciding when spending is justified for capital projects. While benefit–cost analyses have been used for determining whether a project meets a minimum threshold for funding, they have not been used to rank projects, and the result has been far more projects being authorized than can be afforded within the constraints of the budget. A method for prioritizing projects on the basis of the service needs of the system would be more useful than an attempt to estimate and seek funding for the existing backlog.

The advanced age of locks is often used to communicate funding needs for the inland waterways system. Age, however, is not a good indicator of lock condition. A substantial number of locks have been rehabilitated, which would be expected to restore performance to its original condition if not better.

A general framework of locks and their performance as measured by delay experienced by system users. Dating the age of assets from the time of the last major rehabilitation, as is done for highway infrastructure such as bridges, would be more accurate. USACE does not publish consistent records of rehabilitation dates for its various lock and dam assets, however. Making such information available to policy makers, alongside information about the reliability and performance of the system, could improve the efficient allocation of available resources.

An asset management program focused on economic efficiency, fully implemented and linked to the budgeting process, would prioritize maintenance spending and ascertain the funding levels required for reliable freight service. A well-executed program of asset management would promote rational and data-driven investment decisions based on system needs and minimize the broader influences that affect the budgeting process. USACE has adopted a generally appropriate framework for asset management that is mostly consistent with the economically efficient asset management (EEAM) concept described in Chapter 4, but it is not yet fully developed or deployed across USACE districts. The framework recognizes the importance of economic consequences for strategic investment instead of assuming that all navigation infrastructure needs to be maintained at its original condition. The approach appropriately includes assessment of three main elements that follow from EEAM: the probability of failure of the infrastructure; infrastructure usage (demand), defined as whether the waterway has low, moderate, or high levels of freight traffic; and the economic consequences of failure to shippers and carriers.

Whereas maintenance is a priority for the system, decisions about whether to invest in construction for capacity expansion at key bottlenecks and how to prioritize these investments against other investments for the system will continue to arise. Decisions about whether investments in construction to expand capacity at the corridor level are economically justified would require more information about delays and the ability of nonstructural alternatives or smaller-scale structural improvements (to increase processing time) to achieve the desired level of service. Collection of data and development of performance metrics would enhance understanding of whether delay problems could be most efficiently addressed by more targeted O&M, traffic management, capacity enhancement, or some combination of these. Once an asset management approach was fully developed and applied, it could be used to prioritize allocation of resources for O&M and indicate areas where major rehabilitation or other capital spending should be considered.

Miscellaneous

Total barge  %
coal 182.7 24.77
petroleum and petroleum products 252.4 34.22
chemicals 70.4 9.54
crude materials 111.5 15.12
primary manufactured goods 31 4.20
food and farm products 76.1 10.32
all manufactured equipment 12.2 1.65
other 1.3 0.18
737.6

Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River System: A Multiple-Purpose River System Not Reflecting Today’s Economic and Environmental Values

The Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint Rivers basin originates in northeast Georgia, crosses the state boundary into central Alabama, and then follows the Alabama state line south until it terminates in Apalachicola Bay, Florida. The basin covers 50 counties in Georgia, 10 in Alabama, and eight in Florida. Extending a distance of approximately 385 miles, the basin drains 19,600 square miles. The Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint River Waterway consists of a channel 9 feet deep and 100 feet wide from the mouth of the Apalachicola River to the head of navigation at Columbus, Georgia, for the Chattahoochee River and at Bainbridge, Georgia, for the Flint River. The total waterway distance is 290 miles, with a lift of 190 feet accomplished by three locks and dams. Provision of navigation services is just one of several purposes for which the system’s operations are authorized; others are water supply, flood control, hydropower generation, recreation, and management of water releases for several nonfederal power generation dams. Commercial use of the waterway has declined steadily over time and now is minimal, mainly haulage of sand and gravel. According to the Waterborne Commerce Statistics Center, no commercial traffic occurred over the 5 years from 2008 to 2012. Nevertheless, channel maintenance of the lower reaches of the waterway requires dredging and clearing, which has severe adverse impacts on the ecological health of Apalachicola Bay, one of the most economically productive water bodies in the United States. While these efforts have been strongly opposed by the state of Florida through regulatory and other measures such as not providing dredged material disposal areas, USACE has found ways to provide navigation services. In addition to the financial outlays by the federal government for navigation, operation of the upstream reservoirs to provide navigation “windows” uses releases of water that are highly valued by other users, including municipalities and lake recreationists. Because the cost of O&M assigned to navigation is borne by federal taxpayers, opposition to continued provision of navigation services comes largely from the environmental organizations and Florida. Furthermore, the lack of navigation benefits is only a small issue in the conflicts over the operation of this major multiple-purpose reservoir system. Growing demands for municipal water supply in Georgia have led to “water wars” among the states for decades, which have not been successfully addressed administratively by USACE or by Congress.

References

Ashby, M.F. 2015. Materials and sustainable development, table A.14. Oxford: Butterworth-Heinemann.

De Decker, K. 2018. Could We Dredge the Netherlands Without Fossil Fuels? lowtechmagazine.com

Smil, V. 2013. Prime movers of globalization. The history and impact of diesel engines and gas turbines. Cambridge: The MIT press.

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