Department of Energy algal biofuels roadmap: A summary

Preface. If you really want to get into the weeds about the details of why algal fuels have failed to produce biofuels, read this 140 page paper.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com Women in ecology  author of 2021 Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy best price here; 2015 When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Podcasts: Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity

USDOE. May 2010.  National Algal Biofuels Technology Roadmap. Workshop December 9-10, 2008 College Park, Maryland, U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency.

The term algae can refer to microalgae, cyanobacteria (the so called “blue-green algae”), and macroalgae (or seaweed). Under certain conditions, some microalgae have the potential to accumulate significant amounts of lipids (more than 50% of their ash-free cell dry weight).

A scalable, sustainable and commercially viable system has yet to emerge.

Harvesting & Dewatering

Some processes for the conversion of algae to liquid transportation fuels require pre-processing steps such as harvesting and dewatering. Algal cultures are mainly grown in water and can require process steps to concentrate harvested algal biomass prior to extraction and conversion. These steps can be energy-intensive and can entail siting issues.

Focusing on biofuels as the end-product poses challenges due to the high volumes and relative low values associated with bulk commodities like gasoline and diesel fuels.

Conversion to fuels and products is predicated on a basic process decision point: 1) Conversion of whole algal biomass; 2) Extraction of algal metabolites; or 3) Processing of direct algal secretions. Conversion technology options include chemical, biochemical, and thermochemical processes, or a combination of these approaches.

Three major components can be extracted from algal biomass: lipids (including triglycerides and fatty acids), carbohydrates, and proteins. While lipids and carbohydrates are fuel precursors (e.g., gasoline, biodiesel and jet fuel), proteins can be used for co-products (e.g., animal/fish feeds). Most challenges in extraction are associated with the industrial scale up of integrated extraction systems. While many analytical techniques exist, optimizing extraction systems that consume less energy than contained in the algal products is a challenge due to the high energy needs associated with both handling and drying algal biomass as well as separating out desirable products.

As global petroleum supplies diminish, the United States is becoming increasingly dependent upon foreign sources of crude oil. The United States currently imports approximately two-thirds of its petroleum, 60% of which is used for producing transportation fuels. The rising energy demand in many rapidly developing countries around the world is beginning to create intense competition for the world’s dwindling petroleum reserves.

Advanced biofuels must demonstrate GHG emissions across their life cycle that are at least 50% less than GHG emissions produced by petroleum-based transportation fuels. Significant acreage and productivity will be required for biomass production to generate sufficient feedstock to meet the RFS mandates.

Harvesting is a process step that is highly energy- and capital-intensive.

Extraction of oil droplets from the cells and purification of the oil are also cost-intensive steps.

Low nighttime and winter temperatures limited productivity

One serious problem encountered was that the desired starting strain was often outgrown by faster reproducing, but lower oil producing, strains from the wild.

The costs of these resources can vary widely depending upon such factors as land leveling requirements, depth of aquifers, distance from CO2 point sources, and other issues. Detailed techno-economic analyses underlined the necessity for very low-cost culture systems, such as unlined open ponds (Benemann and Oswald, 1996). In addition, biological productivity was shown to have the single largest influence on fuel cost. Different cost analyses led to differing conclusions on fuel cost, but even with optimistic assumptions about CO2 credits and productivity improvements, estimated costs for unextracted algal oil were determined to range from $59 – $186 per barrel.

Also from 1968-1990, DOE sponsored the Marine Biomass Program, a research initiative to determine the technical and economic feasibility of macroalgae cultivation and conversion to fuels, particularly to substitute natural gas (SNG) via anaerobic digestion (Bird and Benson, 1987). Primary efforts were focused on open ocean culture of California kelp. Similar to the findings of the Aquatic Species Program, researchers concluded that algal-derived SNG would not be cost-competitive with fossil fuel gas.

Based on the information provided at the Workshop, it was determined that a great deal of RD&D is still necessary to reduce the level of risk and uncertainty associated with the algae-to-biofuels process so it can be commercialized.

Overcoming barriers to algal biofuels: technology goals process step R&D challenges

  • Algal Biology
  • Algal Cultivation
  • Harvesting and Dewatering
  • Extraction and Fractionation
  • Fuel Conversion
  • Co-products
  • Distribution and Utilization

The ability of an algal species to secrete fuel precursors may be attractive because it could reduce or skip the cell harvesting step. However, there may be practical problems to consider, such as, if the desired product is volatile, then collection of the atmosphere above the culture will be necessary to isolate it, which will necessitate the use of closed bioreactors. Also to be considered is whether secretion actually makes the product more readily available. For example, although there are algae known to secrete long-chain hydrocarbons (e.g., Botryococcus braunii), they are still associated with the cells in a lipid biofilm matrix, and thus are not free to form an organic hydrocarbon phase in solution. Even if sustainable secretion could be achieved, it is not clear what the effect of a lipid emulsion in an algal culture would be. For example, an abundance of exported lipids could unfavorably alter fluidics properties or provide a carbon source favoring growth of contaminants. Finally, secretion of either intermediates or products into the growth medium could make these compounds vulnerable to contaminating microbes for catabolism.

In some species, addition of supplemental carbon results in increased lipid accumulation, even under mixotrophic conditions where the substrate is not known to be transported into the cell. If the carbon source is utilized by the cell, growth in both light and dark periods is possible, and high cell densities can be achieved. A potential disadvantage of the addition of external carbon sources is the possibility of increased contamination by undesired microbes living off the carbon source.

Many algae are photosynthetic organisms capable of harvesting solar energy and converting CO2 and water to O2 and organic macromolecules such as carbohydrates and lipids. Under stress conditions such as high light or nutrient starvation, some microalgae accumulate lipids such as triacylglycerols (TAG) as their main carbon storage compounds. Certain microalgal species also naturally accumulate large amounts of TAG (30-60% of dry weight), and exhibit photosynthetic efficiency and lipid production at least an order of magnitude greater than terrestrial crop plants. Cyanobacteria and macroalgae, as a general rule, accumulate mostly carbohydrates, with lipid accumulation in macroalgae typically being less than 5% of total dry weight, although concentrations approaching 20% lipid have been reported in some species. Lipids and carbohydrates, along with biologically produced hydrogen and alcohols, are all potential biofuels or biofuel precursors.

When algae are cultivated photosynthetically, the efficiency of photosynthesis is a crucial determinate in their productivity, affecting growth rate, biomass production, and potentially, the percent of biomass that is the desired fuel precursor. Though theoretical biomass productivity values in the range of 100-200 g/ m2/day have been presented, there is no current consensus on the true maximum productivity of algae.

Carbon partitioning in algae is less understood and research on how algal cells control the flux and partitioning of photosynthetically fixed carbon into various groups of major macromolecules (i.e., carbohydrates, proteins, and lipids) is critically needed.

Regardless of the cultivation practices used to maximize light exposure, there remains limitations of algal photosystems regarding light utilization. The majority of light that falls on a photosynthetic algal culture at greater than laboratory scale is not utilized. In high cell density cultures, cells nearer to the light source tend to absorb all the incoming light, preventing it from reaching more distant cells.

Further, the majority of light that falls on algae isn’t used.  At high density, the algae closest to the light absorbs all of it, so the light doesn’t reach more distant cells. Even when exposed to high light, algal photosystems have built-in strategies to prevent the over-absorption of light energy, which can lead to oxidative damage. And a large majority of absorbed incident light is dissipated as heat and could be considered “wasted.” (DOE).

Other abundant polysaccharides, for example alginate found in many brown algae, are considered less suitable for ethanol fermentation because the redox balance favors formation of pyruvate as the end product

Another important consideration in algal strains is the composition and structure of the polysaccharide cell wall. These structures can be an important source of carbohydrates, but like those from plants, must typically be broken down into simpler sugars before conversion into biofuels.

Cell walls can also be a technical barrier, for example, when trying to access DNA for genetic manipulations, or efficiently extracting biofuel precursors from cells in mass culture. As mentioned above, many algal cell walls from different groupings are cellulose based.

The regulation of the synthesis of fatty acids and TAG in algae is relatively poorly understood. This lack of understanding may contribute to why the lipid yields obtained from algal mass culture efforts fall short of the high values (50 to 60%) observed in the laboratory.

It could be a challenge to extrapolate information learned about lipid biosynthesis and regulation in laboratory strains to production strains. Similarly, it will be difficult to use information regarding lipid biosynthesis in plants to develop hypotheses for strain improvement in algae. As an example, the annotation of genes involved in lipid metabolism in the green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has revealed that algal lipid metabolism may be different from that in plants, as indicated by the presence and/or absence of certain pathways and by the size of the gene families that relate to various activities. Thus, de novo fatty acid and lipid synthesis should be studied in order to identify key genes, enzymes and new pathways, if any, involved in lipid metabolism in algae.

Oxidative Stress and Storage Lipids

Under environmental stress conditions (such as nutrient starvation), some algal cells stop division and accumulate TAG as the main carbon storage compound.

Under high light stress, excess electrons that accumulate in the photosynthetic electron transport chain induce over-production of reactive oxygen species, which may in turn cause inhibition of photosynthesis and damage to membrane lipids, proteins, and other macromolecules.

Four biological challenges limiting biohydrogen production in algae have been identified: (a) the O2 sensitivity of hydrogenases, (b) competition for photosynthetic reductant at the level of ferredoxin, (c) regulatory issues associated with the over production of ATP, and (d) inefficiencies in the utilization of solar light energy

Photobioreactor issues

s have suffered from problems of scalability, especially in terms of mixing and gas exchange (both CO2 and O2). Though photobioreactors lose much less water than open ponds due to evaporation, they do not receive the benefit of evaporative cooling and so temperature must be carefully maintained.

Photobioreactors are unlikely to be sterilizable and may require periodic cleaning due to biofilm formation,

In heterotrophic cultivation, algae are grown without light and are fed a carbon source, such as sugars, to generate new biomass. This approach takes advantage of mature industrial fermentation technology, already widely used to produce a variety of products at large scale. Heterotrophic cultivation presents a different set of advantages and challenges compared with photoautotrophic methods. Optimal conditions for production and contamination prevention are often easier to maintain, and there is the potential to utilize inexpensive lignocellulosic sugars for algal growth. Heterotrophic cultivation also achieves high biomass concentrations that reduces the extent and cost of the infrastructure required to grow the algae.

Heterotrophic cultivation is expensive and is likely to compete with other biofuel technologies for feedstock  and availability of suitable feedstocks such as lignocellulosic sugars. Because these systems rely on primary productivity from other sources, they could compete for feedstocks with other biofuel technologies.

It should be noted that, especially in open systems, monocultures are inherently difficult to maintain and require significant investment in methods for detection and management of competitors, predators, and pathogens.

Scale-Up Challenges

The inherent difficulties of scaling up from laboratory to commercial operations present both technical and economic barriers to success.

Systems for large-scale production of biofuels from algae must be developed on scales that are orders of magnitude larger than all current worldwide algal culturing facilities combined. In certain cultivation systems, it will be challenging to maintain algal monocultures on this scale; it may become necessary to understand and manage the communities that will be present. Some members of the community will be of positive value, such as those that can scavenge and recycle nutrients or synthesize essential vitamins. Others will compete for shared resources, and still others will cause culture disruption. One of the more worrisome components of large-scale algae cultivation is the fact that algal predators and pathogens are both pervasive and little understood.

Fungal and viral pathogens are common, although current understanding of their diversity and host range is very limited. Wilson et al., (2009) point out that though there may be between 40,000 and several million phytoplankton species, there have only been 150 formal descriptions of phycoviruses. Chytrid fungi have also been known to cause the collapse of industrial algal cultivation ponds, but very little is known about host specificity and even less is known about host resistance mechanisms. Important questions concerning this threat to large-scale algal cultures include: Nutrient sources and water treatment/recycling are technically trivial and inexpensive at small scales and yet represent major technical and economic problems at commercial scales. Tapping into existing agricultural or municipal waste streams will lower nutrient costs but could introduce unacceptable pathogens, chemical compounds, or heavy metals into the biomass stream

Are agricultural or municipal waste streams—a potentially significant source of nutrients for algal cultivation—actually a liability because of significant reservoirs of algal pathogens and predators?

To what extent will local “weedy” algae invade and take over bioreactors and open ponds?

Continuous monitoring will be necessary in open systems since seasonal variation in competitors, predators, and pathogens is expected.

From a productivity standpoint, supplemental CO2 has long been known to increase algal growth rate, and this area is receiving new attention from the search for renewable, sustainable fuels. New approaches are split between using algae to scrub CO2 from emission gasses and a focus on better understanding the mechanisms of biological CO2 concentration from ambient air siting requirements for efficient algal cultivation may rarely coincide with high-volume point sources of CO2.

Nutrient Sources, Sustainability, and Management

Nutrient supplies for algal cultivation have a sizeable impact on cost, sustainability, and production siting. The primary focus is the major nutrients – nitrogen, phosphorous, iron, and silicon (in the case of diatoms). Nitrogen, phosphorous, and iron additions represent a significant operating cost, accounting for 6-8 cents per gallon of algal fuel in 1987 U.S. dollars. This calculation takes into account a 50% rate of nutrient recycle. Phosphorous appears to be an especially important issue as there have been calculations that the world’s supply of phosphate is in danger of running out (Abelson, 1999).

Because synthetic nitrogen fixation processes utilize fossil fuels (particularly natural gas), costs are tied to fossil fuel prices, and the very large required energy inputs should be accounted for in life cycle analyses.

The final fuel product from algal oil contains no nitrogen, phosphorous, or iron; these nutrients end up primarily in the spent algal biomass. From a sustainability perspective, nutrient recycle may prove to be more valuable than using the spent biomass for products such as animal feed. If the biomass residues are, for example, treated by anaerobic digestion to produce biogas, then most of the nutrients will remain in the digestor sludge and can be returned to the growth system (Benemann and Oswald, 1996). The processes through which these nutrients are re-mobilized and made available for algal growth are not well understood.

Energy to carefully control nutrient levels. Limitation of a key nutrient will have serious impacts on biomass productivity, too much of a nutrient may prove toxic. Unused nutrients pose a problem for waste water discharge. Although economics dictate that the bulk of water derived from the harvesting step must be returned to the cultivation system (where remaining nutrients can feed subsequent algal growth), a certain amount of “blowdown” water must be removed to prevent salt buildup. If this blowdown water contains substantial nitrogen and phosphorous, disposal will become a problem due to concerns of eutrophication of surface waters.

Finding inexpensive sources of nutrients will be important

A potential problem with this approach however is the impact on facility siting. Wastewater treatment facilities, for example, tend to be near metropolitan areas with high land prices and limited land availability, and it is not practical to transport wastewater over long distances.

One of the main advantages of using algae for biofuels production is their ability to thrive in water unsuitable for land crops, such as saline water from aquifers and seawater. At the same time, however, water management poses some of the largest issues for algal biofuels. If not addressed adequately, water can easily become a “show-stopper,” either because of real economic or sustainability problems

With large cultivation systems, water demands will be enormous. For example, a hypothetical 1 hectare (ha), 20 cm deep open pond will require 530,000 gallons to fill. In desert areas, evaporative losses can exceed 0.5 cm per day, which is a loss of 13,000 gallons per day from the 1 ha pond. Though the water used to initially fill the pond can be saline, brackish, produced water from oil wells, municipal wastewater, or other low quality water stream, the water being lost to evaporation is fresh water, and continually making up the volume with low-quality water will concentrate salts, toxins, and other materials in the culture. This can be prevented by adding fresh water—a costly and often unsustainable option—or by disposing of a portion of the pond volume each day as “blowdown.” The amount of blowdown required for salinity control is dependent upon the acceptable salt level in the culture and the salinity of the replacement water.

live cells could adversely affect biodiversity of neighboring ecosystems or result in the dissemination of genetically modified organisms. Sterilization of blowdown water, however, would be a very costly and energy-intensive proposition.

An advantage of closed photobioreactors over open ponds is a reduced rate of evaporation. The added cost of such systems must be balanced against the cost savings and sustainability analysis for water usage for a given location. Note however that evaporation plays a critical role in temperature maintenance under hot conditions through evaporative cooling. Closed systems that spray water on the surfaces or employ cooling towers to keep cultures cool will lose some if not possibly all of the water savings of such systems under these conditions.

Water recycling is essential, but the amount that can be recycled depends on the algal strain, water, process, and location. Some actively growing algal cultures can double their biomass on a daily basis, meaning that half the culture volume must be processed daily. This is an enormous amount of water (260,000 gallons per day in the 1 ha example above). To contain costs, it is desirable to recycle most of that water back to the culture. However, accumulated salts, chemical flocculants used in harvesting, or biological inhibitors produced by the strains themselves could impair growth if recycled to the culture. Furthermore, moving around such large volumes of water is very energy-intensive and can impose a significant cost.

Treatment may be essential for water entering and exiting the process. Incoming water (surface water, groundwater, wastewater, or seawater) may be suitable as is, or may require decontamination, disinfection, or other remediation before use. The blowdown water exiting the process will also most likely require treatment. Disposal of the spent water, which could contain salts, residual nitrogen and phosphorous fertilizer, accumulated toxics, heavy metals (e.g., from flue gas), flocculants, and residual live algal cells, could pose a serious problem, and treatment (e.g., desalination, activated charcoal filtration, etc.) of the recycled stream could be cost-prohibitive.

Understanding the long-term effects of drawing down saline aquifers, including the geology of these aquifers and associations with freshwater systems

Downstream Processing: Harvesting and Dewatering

Conversion of algae in ponds, bioreactors, and off-shore systems to liquid transportation fuels requires processing steps such as harvesting, dewatering, and extraction of fuel precursors (e.g., lipids and carbohydrates). These energy-intensive processes are only now being recognized as critically important. Cultures with as low as 0.02 – 0.07% algae (~ 1 gm algae/5000 gm water) must be concentrated to slurries containing at least 1% algae given the known processing strategies. The final slurry concentration will depend on the extraction methods employed and will impact the required energy input. As the desired percentage of dry biomass increases, energy costs climb steeply. Final slurry concentration also impacts plant location because of transportation, water quality, and recycling issues. A feasible algae-to-fuel strategy must, therefore, consider the energy costs and siting issues associated with harvesting and dewatering.

Harvesting Flocculation and Sedimentation

Microalgae and cyanobacteria remain in suspension in well-managed high growth rate cultures due to their small size (~1 to 30 µm). This facilitates the transport of cells to the photoactive zone through pond or bioreactor circulation. Their small sizes, however, make harvesting more difficult. Flocculation leading to sedimentation occurs naturally in many older cultures. In managed cultures, some form of forced flocculation usually involving chemical additives, is required to promote sedimentation at harvest.

Chemical flocculant recovery techniques are required to minimize cost and control water effluent purity. • The effect of residual flocculant or pH manipulation in recycled water on culture health and stability and lipid production must be understood and controlled. Likewise, the presence of flocculant in further downstream extraction and fuel conversion processes must be understood and controlled. • The environmental impact of flocculant or pH manipulation in released water effluent, and fuel conversion and use must be considered. • Bioflocculation, electroflocculation, and electrocoagulation must be scaled-up with cost and energy analysis.

Filtration

Solid/liquid filtration technologies are well studied, and filtration without prior flocculation can be used to harvest and dewater algae. Microalgae and cyanobacteria present unique filtration challenges because most strains considered for energy feedstocks have cell diameters less than 10 µm. Filtration is conceptually simple but potentially very expensive.

Centrifugation is widely used in industrial suspension separations and has been investigated in algal harvesting. The efficiency is dependent on the selected species (as related to size). Centrifugation technologies must consider large initial capital equipment investments, operating costs, and high throughput processing of large quantities of water and algae. The current level of centrifugation technology makes this approach cost-prohibitive for most of the envisioned large-scale algae biorefineries. Significant cost and energy savings must be realized before any widespread implementation of this approach can be carried out.

Drying is required to achieve high biomass concentrations. Because drying generally requires heat, methane drum dryers and other oven-type dryers have been used. However, the costs climb steeply with incremental temperature and/or time increases. Air-drying is possible in low-humidity climates, but will require extra space and considerable time.

Seaweeds immediately following harvest can have stones, sand, litter, adhering epifauna and other forms of debris that should be removed before further processing. Screening for debris is considered mandatory, with the degree of screening dependent on the mode of culture and end-use.

A critical gap is the energy requirements of these processes are not only largely unknown but unbounded. This has important implications for plant design to answer simple questions like “What percentage of the total plant energy requirements or what percentage of that made available by algae must be directed toward harvesting and dewatering?”. Ultimately, a unit operations analysis of energy input for a range of dry weight content based on extraction needs is required with consideration of capital equipment investments, operations, maintenance, and depreciation. The cost of harvesting and dewatering will depend on the final algae concentration needed for the chosen extraction method. This will likely be a significant fraction of the total energy cost of any algae-to-fuel process and a significant fraction of the total amount of energy available from algae. A quick and preliminary energy balance example shown below provides some food for thought regarding harvesting and dewatering technologies.

Preliminary Look at Energy Balance

The energy content of most algae cells is of the order of 5 watt-hours/gram if the energy content of lipids, carbohydrates, and proteins and the typical percentage of each in algae are considered. It is possible to estimate the energy requirements in watthours/gram of algae for harvesting, de-watering, and drying as a function of the volume percentage of algae in harvested biomass. The energy requirements for flocculation and sedimentation and the belt filter press are expected to be minimal. However, based on the latent heat of vaporization of water at 0.54 watt-hours/gram, energy balance can become an issue in systems that propose to take algal biomass and concentrate / dry it to enable downstream processing and extraction because of the high volumes of water that must be evaporated away. In spite of gaps in data precluding more detailed analyses, algal biofuel production schemes at scale will likely need to implement innovative technologies and integrated systems in order to overcome this challenge.

Extraction of Products from Algae

While relatively limited volumes of bioproducts are currently produced from algal feedstocks, algal biomass suffers from a lack of well-defined and demonstrated industrial-scale methods for extracting and separating of oils and lipids required for enabling biofuel production. Existing extraction techniques are mainly suitable for analytical- and laboratory-scale procedures, or for the recovery/removal of high-value products. To produce algal biofuels as competitive bulk commodity, extraction techniques employed must be efficient and effective.

Extraction depends on identifying the particular biological component for extraction, which is dependent on the algal species and growth status. Additionally, different harvest process operations (operations could affect extraction processes, as well as the fuel conversion process. While many terrestrial feedstocks can be removed from their environment at total solids >40%, microalgae and cyanobacteria may be cultivated as single cells suspended in water at concentrations below 1% solids.

A shortfall of relevant information on efficient extraction of lipids and oils at larger-scale is limiting the algal-based biofuel development. Laboratory-scale comparisons of extraction of lipids from microalgae and macroalgae have been carried out, but these techniques often rely on freeze dried, pulverized biomass. While considerable knowledge exists for the separation of plant biomass lipid extracts and preparation for conversion to biodiesel, little is known about the scale-up separation challenges for extracted algal lipids.

Current Practices for Lipid Extraction

The basis for lipid extraction from algal biomass is largely in the realm of laboratory-scale processes that serve analytical rather than biofuel production goals.

Mechanical Disruption (i.e., Cell Rupture) Algal biofuel schemes that rely on the accumulation of intra-cellular lipids need an extracting solvent that can (1) penetrate through the matrix enclosing the lipid material, (2) physically contact the lipid material, and (3) solvate the lipid. As such the development of any extraction process must also account for the fact that the tissue structure and cell walls may present formidable barriers to solvent access. This generally requires that the native structure of the biomass must be disrupted prior to extraction. Effective mechanical disruption can help offset the need to use elevated temperature and pressure processes that force the solvent into contact with desired biopolymers. Different methods can be used to disrupt the cell membrane prior to the application of the extraction solvents. Mechanical disruption can include cell homogenizers, bead mills (or bead-beating), ultrasounds, and autoclaving (Mata et al., 2010). Non-mechanical methods include process such as freezing, application of organic solvents, osmotic shock, and acid, base, and enzyme reactions (Mata et al., 2010). The use of microwaves to disrupt cells and increase efficiencies of vegetable lipid and oil extraction is a promising development (Cravotto et al., 2008; Virot et al., 2008), though applications outside of analytical labs are unclear.

Organic Co-solvent Mixtures. The concept of like dissolves like is the basis behind the earliest and well-known co-solvent extraction procedure. After the extraction reaction is complete, water (which is not miscible with chloroform) is added to the co-solvent mixture until a two-phase system develops in which water and chloroform separate into two immiscible layers. The lipids mainly separate to the chloroform layer and can then be recovered for analysis. Chloroform will extract more than just the saphonifiable lipids (i.e., the unsaponifiable lipids such as pigments, lipoproteins, and other lipid and non-lipid contaminants). Consequently, other combinations of co-solvents have been proposed for the extraction of lipids: hexane/isopropanol for tissue; dimethyl sulfoxide/petroleum ether for yeast; hexane/ethanol for microalgae; and hexane/ isopropanol for microalgae. The hexane system has been promoted because hexane and alcohol will readily separate into two separate phases when water is added, thereby improving downstream separations.

To avoid the use of elevated temperature and pressure to push the solvent into contact with the analyte (at the cost of a very high input of energy), disruption of the cell membrane may be necessary.

All the preceding co-solvent systems, however, remain largely bench-scale methods that are difficult to scale up to industrial processes due to the actual solvent toxicity and the low carrying capacity of the solvents (i.e., it is only efficient on biomass samples containing less than 2% w/w lipids).

Challenges

Presence of Water Associated with the Biomass

The extraction process is affected by the choice of upstream and downstream unit operations and vice versa. The presence of water can cause problems at both ends at larger scales. When present in the bulk solution, water can either promote the formation of emulsions in the presence of ruptured cells or participate in side reactions. At the cellular level, intracellular water can prove to be a barrier between the solvent and the solute.

In this context, the issue of solvent access to the material being extracted is as important as the miscibility of the analyte in the solvent. This is a principal motivation behind the application of extraction techniques at elevated temperatures and pressures.

Separation of Desired Extracts from Solvent Stream Extraction processes can yield undesirable components, such as chlorophyll and non-transesterifiable lipids. Very little information is available on this critical step that is necessary before converting the algal biocrude into finished fuels and products.

Energy Consumption and Water Recycle

For sustainable biofuels production, the following benchmark can be considered: the extraction process per day should consume no more than 10% of the total energy load, as Btu, produced per day.

Attractive targets for this effort, however, are the liquid transportation fuels of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. These fuel classes were selected as the best-value targets because 1) they are the primary products that are currently created from imported crude oil for the bulk of the transportation sector, 2) they have the potential to be more compatible than other biomass-based fuels with the existing fuel-distribution infrastructure in the U.S., and 3) adequate specifications for these fuels already exist.

All of the petroleum feedstock that enters a conventional petroleum refinery must leave as marketable products, and this conservation law must also hold true for the algae biorefineries of the future if they are to achieve significant market penetration.

Gasification of the algal biomass may provide an extremely flexible way to produce different liquid fuels, primarily through Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis (FTS) or mixed alcohol synthesis of the resulting syngas. The synthesis of mixed alcohols using gasification of lignocellulose is relatively mature (Phillips, 2007; Yung et al., 2009), and it is reasonable to expect that once water content is adjusted for, the gasification of algae to these biofuels would be comparatively straightforward. FTS is also a relatively mature technology where the syngas components (CO, CO2, H2O, H2, and impurities) are cleaned and upgraded to usable liquid fuels through a water-gas shift and CO hydrogenation

The key roadblocks to using FTS for algae are thought to be similar to those for coal, with the exception of any upstream process steps that may be a source of contaminants which will need to be removed prior to reaching the FT catalyst. FTS tends to require production at a very large scale to make the process efficient overall. However, the most significant problem with FTS is the cost of clean-up and tar reforming. Tars have high molecular weight and can develop during the gasification process. The tars cause coking of the synthesis catalyst and any other catalysts used in the syngas cleanup process and must be removed.

Supercritical processing is a recent addition to the portfolio of techniques capable of simultaneously extracting and converting oils into biofuels. Supercritical fluid extraction of algal oil is far more efficient than traditional solvent separation methods, and this technique has been demonstrated to be extremely powerful in the extraction of other components within algae. This supercritical transesterification approach can also be applied for algal oil extracts. Supercritical fluids are selective, thus providing high purity and product concentrations. Additionally, there are no organic solvent residues in the extract or spent biomass. Extraction is efficient at modest operating temperatures, for example, at less than 50°C, ensuring maximum product stability and quality. Additionally, supercritical fluids can be used on whole algae without dewatering, thereby increasing the efficiency of the process.

The clear immediate priority, however, is to demonstrate that these supercritical process technologies can be applied in the processing of algae, either whole or its oil extract, with similar yields and efficiencies at a level that can be scaled to commercial production. In particular, it must be demonstrated that this process can tolerate the complex compositions that are found with raw, unprocessed algae and that there is no negative impact due to the presence of other small metabolites.

Anaerobic Digestion of Whole Algae

The production of biogas from the anaerobic digestion of macroalgae, such as Laminaria hyperbore and Laminaria saccharina, is an interesting mode of gaseous biofuel production, and one that receives scant attention in the United States. The use of this conversion technology eliminates several of the key obstacles that are responsible for the current high costs associated with algal biofuels, including drying, extraction, and fuel conversion, and as such may be a cost-effective methodology.

It is estimated that industrial-scale ultrasonic devices can allow for the processing of several thousand barrels per day, but will require further innovation to reach production levels sufficient for massive and scalable biofuel production.

Biochemical (Enzymatic) Conversion

Chemical processes give high conversion of triacylglycerols to their corresponding esters but have drawbacks such as being energy-intensive, difficulty in removing the glycerol, and require removal of alkaline catalyst from the product and treatment of alkaline wastewater.

Although enzymatic approaches have become increasingly attractive, they have not been demonstrated at large scale mainly due to the relatively high price of lipase and its short operational life caused by the negative effects of excessive methanol and co-product glycerol. These factors must be addressed before a commercially viable biochemical conversion process can be realized.

Other important issues that need further exploration are developing enzymes that can lyse the algal cell walls; optimizing specific enzyme activity to function using heterogeneous feedstocks; defining necessary enzyme reactions (cell wall deconstruction and autolysin); converting carbohydrates into sugars; catalyzing nucleic acid hydrolysis; and converting lipids into a suitable diesel surrogate.

Catalytic Cracking

The transesterification catalysts presented above are very strong and relatively mature in the field of biofuel production. Although very effective and relatively economical, these catalysts still require purification and removal from the product stream, which increases the overall costs.

All of the processes that take place in a modern petroleum refinery can be divided into two categories, separation and modification of the components in crude oil to yield an assortment of end products. The fuel products are a mixture of components that vary based on input stream and process steps, and they are better defined by their performance specifications than by the sum of specific molecules. As noted in chapter 8, gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel must meet a multitude of performance specifications that include volatility, initial and final boiling point, autoignition characteristics (as measured by octane number or cetane number), flash point, and cloud point. Although the predominant feedstock for the industry is crude oil, the oil industry has begun to cast a wider net and has spent a great deal of resources developing additional inputs such as oil shale and tar sands. It is worth noting that the petroleum industry began by developing a replacement for whale oil, and now it is apparent that it is beginning to return to biological feedstocks to keep the pipelines full.

A major characteristic of petroleum-derived fuels is high energy content which is a function of a near-zero oxygen content. Typical biological molecules have very high oxygen contents as compared to crude oil. Conversion of biological feedstocks to renewable fuels, therefore, is largely a process of eliminating oxygen and maximizing the final energy content. From a refinery’s perspective, the ideal conversion process would make use of those operations already in place: thermal or catalytic cracking, catalytic hydrocracking and hydrotreating, and catalytic structural isomerization. In this way, the feedstock is considered fungible with petroleum and can be used for the production of typical fuels without disruptive changes in processes or infrastructure.

Various refiners and catalyst developers have already begun to explore the conversion of vegetable oils and waste animal fats into renewable fuels. Fatty acids are well suited to conversion to diesel and jet fuel with few processing steps. This process has already provided the renewable jet fuel blends (derived from oils obtained from jatropha and algae) used in recent commercial jet test flights. On the other hand, straight chain alkanes are poor starting materials for gasoline because they provide low octane numbers, demanding additional isomerization steps or high octane blendstocks. Algal lipids can be processed by hydrothermal treatment (basically, a chemical reductive process). Referred to as hydrotreating, this process will convert the carboxylic acid moiety to a mixture of water, carbon dioxide, or carbon monoxide, and reduce double bonds to yield hydrocarbons. Glycerin can be converted to propane which can be used for liquefied petroleum gas. The primary barrier to utilizing algae oils to make renewable fuels is catalyst development. Catalysts in current use have been optimized for existing petroleum feedstocks and have the appropriate specificity and activity to carry out the expected reactions in a cost-effective manner. It will be desirable to tune catalysts such that the attack on the oxygen-bearing carbon atoms will minimize the amount of CO and CO2 lost, as well as the amount of H2 used. Refinery catalysts have also been developed to function within a certain range of chemical components found within the petroleum stream (e.g., metals, and sulfur and nitrogen heteroatoms) without becoming poisoned. Crude algal oil may contain high levels of phosphorous from phospholipids, nitrogen from extracted proteins, and metals (especially magnesium) from chlorophyll. It will be necessary to optimize both the level of purification of algal lipid as well as the tolerance of the catalyst for the contaminants to arrive at the most cost-effective process.

Co-products

The “guiding truth” is that if biofuel production is considered to be the primary goal, the generation of other co-products must be correspondingly low since their generation will inevitably compete for carbon, reductant, and energy from photosynthesis. Indeed, the concept of a biorefinery for utilization of every component of the biomass raw material must be considered as a means to enhance the economics of the process.

The market for microalgal animal feeds, estimated to be about 300 million US$, is quickly growing. However, it is important to note that since the flue gas from coal-fired power plants that will be used to supply carbon dioxide to the cultures will contain significant amounts of lead, arsenic, cadmium and other toxic elements, the resulting non-oil algal biomass is very likely to be unsuitable for use as an animal feed, particularly given the fact that algae are known to be effective at metal absorption.

Distribution and Utilization

Distribution and utilization are challenges associated with virtually all biofuels. Although the biofuel product(s) from algal biomass would ideally be energy-dense and completely compatible with the existing liquid transportation fuel infrastructure, few studies exist that address outstanding issues of storing, transporting, pipelining, blending, combusting, and dispensing algal biomass, fuels intermediates, biofuels, and bioproducts.

Being intermediate steps in the supply chain, distribution and utilization need to be discussed in the context of earlier decision points, such as cultivation and harvesting. In turn, these logistics through end-use issues influence siting, scalability, and the ultimate economics and operations of an integrated algal biofuels refinery. As a variety of fuel products – ethanol, biodiesel, higher alcohols, pyrolysis oil, syngas, and hydroreformed biofuels – are being considered from algal biomass resources, the specific distribution and utilization challenges associated with each of these possible opportunities is discussed.

Distribution

Lowering costs associated with the delivery of raw biomass, fuel intermediates, and final fuels from the feedstock production center to the ultimate consumer are common goals for all biofuels. In all cases, biofuels infrastructure costs can be lowered in four ways: • Minimizing transport distance between process units; • Maximizing the substrate energy-density and stability; • Maximizing compatibility with existing infrastructure (e.g. storage tanks, high capacity; delivery vehicles, pipelines, dispensing equipment, and end-use vehicles);

Distribution is complicated by the fact that several different fuels from algae are being considered. Ethanol, biodiesel, biogas, renewable gasoline, diesel, and jet fuels are all possible products from algal biomass. Each of these different fuels has different implications for distributions. Some of these fuels appear to be more compatible with the existing petroleum infrastructure. Specifically, jet-fuel blends from a variety of oil-rich feedstocks, including algae, have been shown to be compatible for use in select demonstration flights. It is also anticipated that gasoline and diesel range fuels from algae will not require significant distribution system modifications during or after processing in the refinery.

First, the stability of the algal biomass under different production, storage, and transport scenarios is poorly characterized, with some evidence suggesting that natural bacterial communities increase the rate of algae decomposition. In the context of a variety of culturing and harvesting conditions differing in salinity, pH and dewatering levels, it is difficult to predict how these factors will influence biomass storage and transport, and the quality of the final fuel product.

Second, an issue that impacts oleaginous microalgae feedstocks is that the transport and storage mechanisms of algal lipid intermediates have not yet been established. It is conceivable that these “bio-crudes” will be compatible with current pipeline and tanker systems. However, it is known that the presence of unsaturated fatty acids causes auto-oxidation of oils, which carries implications for the producers of algae and selection for ideal lipid compositions. It is also known that temperature and storage material have important implications for biodiesel stability. Thus, materials and temperature considerations similar to plant lipids may be possibly taken into account for the storage of algae lipids.

Third, depending on whether it will be dewatered/ densified biomass and/or fuel intermediates that are to be transported to the refinery, conforming to existing standards (e.g., container dimensions, hazardous materials and associated human health impacts, and corrosivity) for trucks, rails, and barges is critical to minimizing infrastructure impacts. The optimal transport method(s) should be analyzed and optimized for energy-inputs and costs, within the context of where the algae production and biorefinery facilities are to be sited. These have been challenging issues for lignocellulosic feedstocks and can be expected to influence the economics of algal biofuels as well.

Considerable infrastructure investments need to be made for higher ethanol blends to become even more attractive and widespread. One issue is that ethanol is not considered a fungible fuel; it can pick up excessive water associated with petroleum products in the pipeline and during storage, which causes a phase separation when blended with gasoline. One possible way to address this is to build dedicated ethanol pipelines; however, at an estimated cost of $1 million/mile of pipeline, this approach is not generally considered to be economically viable. Another possibility is to distribute ethanol blends by rail, barge, and/or trucks. Trucking is currently the primary mode to transport ethanol blends at an estimated rate of $0.15/ton/kilometer. This amount is a static number for low levels of ethanol in the blends (5% to 15%); as the ethanol content in the blend increases, the transport costs will also increase due to the lower energy density of the fuel.

The last remaining hurdle to creating a marketable new fuel after it has been successfully delivered to the refueling location is that the fuel must meet regulatory and customer requirements. Such a fuel is said to be “fit for purpose.” Many physical and chemical properties are important in determining whether a fuel is fit for purpose; some of these are energy density, oxidative and biological stability, lubricity, cold-weather performance, elastomer compatibility, corrosivity, emissions (regulated and unregulated), viscosity, distillation curve, ignition quality, flash point, low-temperature heat release, metal content, odor/taste thresholds, water tolerance, specific heat, latent heat, toxicity, environmental fate, and sulfur and phosphorus content. Petroleum refiners have shown remarkable flexibility in producing fit-for-purpose fuels from feedstocks ranging from light crude to heavy crude, oil shales, tar sands, gasified coal, and chicken fat, and are thus key stakeholders in reducing the uncertainty about the suitability of algal lipids and carbohydrates as a feedstock for fuel production.

Failure of a fuel to comply with even one of the many allowable property ranges within the prevailing specifications can lead to severe problems in the field. Some notable examples included: elastomer compatibility issues that led to fuel-system leaks when blending of ethanol with gasoline was initiated; cold weather performance problems that crippled fleets when blending biodiesel with diesel was initiated in Minnesota in the winter;

Algal Blendstocks to Replace Middle-Distillate Petroleum Products

Petroleum “middle distillates” are typically used to create diesel and jet fuels. The primary algae-derived blendstocks that are suitable for use in this product range are biodiesel (oxygenated molecules) and renewable diesel (hydrocarbon molecules). The known and anticipated end-use problem areas for each are briefly surveyed below.

Oxygenates: Biodiesel

Biodiesel is defined as “mono-alkyl esters of long chain fatty acids derived from vegetable oils or animal fats” (ASTM International, 2009b). Biodiesel has been demonstrated to be a viable fuel for compression-ignition engines, both when used as a blend with petroleum-derived diesel and when used in its neat form (i.e., 100% esters).

The primary end-use issues for plant-derived biodiesel are: lower oxidative stability than petroleum diesel, higher emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), and cold-weather performance problems. The oxidative-stability and cold-weather performance issues of biodiesel preclude it from use as a jet fuel. The anticipated issues with algae-derived biodiesel are similar, with added potential difficulties including: 1) contamination of the esters with chlorophyll, metals, toxins, or catalyst poisons (e.g., sulfur and phosphorus) from the algal biomass and/or growth medium; 2) undesired performance effects due to different chemical compositions; and 3) end-product variability.

Hydrocarbons: Renewable Diesel and Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene

The hydrocarbon analog to biodiesel is renewable diesel, which is a non-oxygenated, paraffinic fuel produced by hydrotreating bio-derived fats or oils in a refinery. Algal lipids can be used to produce renewable diesel or synthetic paraffinic kerosene (SPK), a blendstock for jet fuel. These blendstocks do not have oxidative-stability problems as severe as those of biodiesel, and renewable diesel actually tends to decrease engine out NOx emissions. Nevertheless, unless they are heavily isomerized (i.e., transformed from straight- to branchedchain paraffins), renewable diesel and SPK will have cold-weather performance problems comparable to those experienced with biodiesel. Also, as was the case with algal biodiesel, contaminants and end-product variability are concerns.

Resources and Siting

The development and scale-up of algal biofuels production, as with any biomass-based technology and industry, needs to be analyzed from a site location, as well as from a resource availability and use perspective. Critical requirements—such as suitable land and climate, sustainable water resources, supplemental CO2 supply, and other nutrients—must be appropriately aligned in terms of their geo-location, characteristics, availability, and affordability. To achieve success regarding both technical and economic performance without adverse environmental impacts, the siting and resource factors must also be appropriately matched to the required growth conditions of the particular algae species being cultivated and the engineered growth systems being developed and deployed. The sustainability and environmental impacts of national algae production capacity build-up and operation over time will be important complementary aspects of the siting and resources issues that will also need careful consideration and analysis

Integration with wastewater treatment can play an additional important role in the sourcing of nutrients from both the input wastewater and from possible nutrient recycling from residual algal biomass.

Exhibit 9.2 provides a simple high-level overview of the major resource and environmental parameters that pertain to the algae biofuels production inputs of climate, water, CO2, energy, nutrients, and land. These parameters are of greatest importance to siting, facilities design, production efficiency, and costs. For each parameter, a variety of conditions may be more or less cost-effective for the siting and operation of algal biomass production. Additional resources include materials, capital, labor, and other inputs associated with facilities infrastructure and conducting operations and maintenance.

Heterotrophic production can be characterized as more of an industrial operation with a significant upstream logistics trail associated with the sourcing of the needed biomass derived input feedstocks, whereas photoautotrophic production, in terms of cultivation and harvesting, is more akin to agriculture and serves as the point of origin for the biomass feedstock supply for the downstream value chain. Resource issues for the heterotrophic approach are more largely associated with the upstream supply of organic carbon feedstock derived from commodity crops, selected organic carbon-rich waste streams, and lignocellulosic biomass, thereby sharing many of the same feedstock supply issues with first- and second-generation biofuels. Use of sugars from cane, beets, other sugar crops, and from the hydrolysis of starch grain crops can, after sufficient scale-up of production and demand, lead to the problem of linking biofuel production with competing food and feed markets.

Severe weather will affect water supply and water quality in open systems.

Equally important for photoautotrophic microalgae growth with both open and closed cultivation systems is the availability of abundant sunlight. A significant portion of the United States is suitable for algae production from the standpoint of having adequate solar radiation (with parts of Hawaii, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and Florida being most promising). The more northern latitude states, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the New England states, would have very low productivity in the winter months. Growth of algae is technically feasible in many parts of the United States, but the availability of adequate sunlight and the suitability of climate and temperature are key siting and resource factors that will determine economic feasibility.

Preferred Geographic Regions for Algae Production

Exhibit 9.4 GIS-based scoping conducted by Sandia National Laboratories to provide a preliminary high-level assessment identifying preferred regions of the United States for photoautotrophic microalgae production based on the application of selected filter criteria on annual average climate conditions, the availability of non-fresh water, and the availability of concentrated sources of CO2. The climate criteria used to narrow down the geographical regions were: annual average cumulative sun hours = 2800, annual average daily temperature = 55°F, and annual average freeze-free days = 200.

Projections of annual average algae biomass production from the PNNL study show clear patterns relating climate to total biomass growth, with the higher growth regions having gross qualitative similarity to Exhibit 9.4 and the southern tier states showing greatest productivity potential based on the modeling assumptions used. In Exhibit 9.4 (a), the lack of attractiveness of the Gulf Coast region from southeast Texas to northwest Florida is attributed to the lower annual average solar insolation available,

a) Regions with annual average climate conditions meeting selected criteria: = 2800 hour annual sunshine, annual average temperature = 55° F, and = 200 freeze-free days

b) Fossil-fired power plant sources of CO2 within 20 miles of municipal wastewater facilities in the preferred climate region

High annual production for a given species grown photoautotrophically outdoors, however, will require that suitable climatic conditions exist for a major part of the year. Therefore, a critical climate issue for both open and closed photobioreactor systems is the length of economically viable growing season(s) for the particular strains of algae available for productive cultivation. For outdoor ponds, the conventional crop analogy for this is the length of time between the last killing frost in the spring and the first killing frost in the fall. For closed photobioreactors, the conventional crop analog is the greenhouse and the limiting energy and cost needed to maintain internal temperature throughout the seasons.

The primary geographical location factors for determining length of growing season are latitude and elevation, which have major influence on the hours and intensity of available sunlight per day and the daily and seasonal temperature variations. Areas with relatively long growing seasons (for example, 240 days or more of adequate solar insolation and average daily temperatures above the lower threshold needed for economically viable growth) are the lower elevation regions of the lower latitude states of Hawaii, Florida, and parts of Louisiana, Georgia, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California. Other local climate and weather conditions will also have influence.

Water Requirements

Precipitation affects water availability (both surface and groundwater) at a given location within a given watershed region. Areas with higher annual average precipitation (more than 40 inches), represented by specific regions of Hawaii, the Northwest, and the Southeast, are desirable for algae production from the standpoint of long-term availability and sustainability of water supply.

Evaporative loss can be a critical factor to consider when choosing locations for open pond production. Evaporation is a less important concern for selecting locations of closed photobioreactors, although evaporative cooling is often considered as a means to reduce culture temperature. The southwestern states (California, Arizona, and New Mexico) and Hawaii have the highest evaporation rates in the United States, with more than 60 inches annually.

Severe Weather Events and Elements

Severe weather events, such as heavy rain and flooding, hail storms, dust storms, tornadoes, and hurricanes pose serious concerns in the inland regions of the central states, Southwest, Southeast, and coastal areas. These weather events can contaminate an open system environment or cause physical damage to both open and closed systems, and need to be taken into account when looking at prospects for algae production in both inland and coastal regions of the United States.

The marine environment can also be highly corrosive to materials and usually demands both the use of higher quality and more costly materials and greater maintenance.

Water General Water Balance and Management Needs

One of the major benefits of growing algae is that, unlike most terrestrial agriculture, algal culture can potentially utilize non-fresh water sources having few competing uses, such as saline and brackish ground water, or “coproduced water” from oil, natural gas, and coal-bed methane wells (Reynolds, 2003; USGS, 2002). However, for open pond systems in more arid environments with high rates of evaporation, salinity and water chemistry will change with evaporative water loss, thereby changing the culture conditions. This will require periodic blowdown of ponds after salinity build-up, periodic addition of non-saline make-up water to dilute the salinity buildup, the application of desalination treatment to control salinity build-up, or highly adaptive algae that can thrive under widely varying conditions. Open algal ponds may have to periodically be drained and re-filled, or staged as a cascading sequence of increasingly saline ponds each with different dominant algae species and growth conditions. The relatively flat national water withdrawal trend over the past 25 years, following the more than doubling of water demand over the 30 years prior to that, reflects the fact that fresh water sources in the Untied States are approaching full allocation. Growing demand for limited fresh water supplies in support of development and population increase has thus far been offset by increased conservation and by the increased re-use of wastewater. Many of the nations’ fresh ground water aquifers are under increasing stress, and the future expansion of fresh water supplies for non-agricultural use must increasingly come from the desalination of saline or brackish water sources and from the treatment and reuse of wastewater, all of which have increasing energy demand implications

Implementing water desalination would impose additional capital, energy, and operational costs. Disposal of high salt content effluent or solid byproducts, from pond drainage and replacement, or from desalination operations, can also become an environmental problem for inland locations.

Analysis of U.S. Water Supply and Management

Total combined fresh and saline water withdrawals in the United States as of the year 2005 were estimated at 410,000 million gallons per day (Mgal/d), or 460,000 acre-feet per year.  Saline water (seawater and brackish coastal water) withdrawals were about 15% of the total. Almost all saline water, about 95%, is used by the thermoelectric-power industry in the coastal states to cool electricity-generating equipment. In 2005, nearly one-half of the total U.S. withdrawals (201,000 Mgal/d) were for thermoelectric-power generation, representing 41% of all freshwater, 61% of all surface water, and 95% of all saline-water withdrawals in 2005.

Withdrawals for irrigation of crops and other lands totaled 128,000 Mgal/d and were the second-largest category of water use. Irrigation withdrawals represented 31% of all water withdrawals, and 37% of all freshwater withdrawals (Kenny et al., 2009). At the national scale, total combined fresh and saline water withdrawals more than doubled from about 180 billion gallons per day in 1950 to over 400 billion gallons per day in 1980. Total withdrawals since the mid-1980s have remained relatively flat at slightly over 400 billion gallons per day, with the majority (85%) being fresh (Hutson et al., 2004; Kenny et al., 2009). The stress on fresh water supplies in the United States is not restricted to the more arid western half of the country, but is also becoming a local and regional concern at various locations throughout the eastern half of the country, where a growing number of counties are experiencing net fresh water withdrawals that exceed the sustainable supply from precipitation (DOE, 2006b; Hightower et al., 2008; ). Climate change is also recognized as a factor that could have major effect on all sectors of water resources supply and management in the future (USGS, 2009).

Scoping Out Water Requirements for Algae Production

Water use and consumption for algae-based biofuels will depend on the cultivation approach (photoautotrophic/ heterotrophic), with water use in upstream organic carbon feedstock production needing to be part of the heterotrophic assessment. Water use will also depend on the type of growth systems used for photoautotrophic microalgae (open vs. closed vs. hybrid combination), whether evaporative cooling is used for closed systems, and the site-specific details of climate, solar insolation, and weather conditions (cloud cover, wind, humidity, etc.). Also a complicating factor for evaporative water loss in open systems will be the degree of salinity of the water used for cultivation and the local latitude, elevation, ambient temperature variations, solar insolation, humidity, and wind conditions. A significant source of water demand with inland algae production operations could be for the replacement of water continuously lost to evaporation from open cultivation systems.

This will be of greatest impact and concern in water-sparse locations, which also tend to be in the more arid and higher solar resource regions like the Southwest.

The evaporation estimates suggest that water loss on the order of several tens of gallons of water per kilogram of dry weight biomass produced, or several hundreds of gallons of water per gallon of algal biofuel produced, could be a consequence of open system operation in the more arid and sunny regions of the country.

Evaporative water loss associated with algae cultivation can be significantly reduced if closed systems are used.

Unfortunately, quantitative information remains limited on U.S. brackish and saline groundwater resources in terms of their extent, water quality and chemistry, and sustainable withdrawal capacity.

Depth to groundwater is pertinent to the economics of resource development. Along with geological data, depth information determines the cost of drilling and operating (including energy input requirements for pumping) a well in a given location (Maxwell et al., 1985). Suitable aquifers located closer to the surface and nearer to the cultivation site would provide a more cost-effective source of water for algae production than deeper sources located longer distances from the cultivation site. The location, depth, and chemical characterization of saline aquifers in the United States are areas of investigation in need of greater investment. The maps of saline groundwater resources are based on incomplete data that was largely developed by the USGS prior to the mid-1960s.

Carbon Dioxide The Carbon Capture Opportunity in Algae Production Efficient algae production requires enriched sources of CO2 since the rate of supply from the atmosphere is limited by diffusion rates through the surface resistance of the water in the cultivation system. Flue gas, such as from fossil fuel-fired power plants, would be a good source of CO2.

However, algae production does not actually sequester fossil carbon, but rather provides carbon capture and reuse in the form of fuels and other products derived from the algae biomass. Any greenhouse gas abatement credits would come from the substitution of renewable fuels and other co-products that displace or reduce fossil fuel consumption. In addition, at some large scale of algae production, parasitic losses from flue gas treatment, transport, and distribution could require more energy input than the output energy displacement value represented by the algae biofuels and other co-products.

Likely Stationary CO2 Emission Sources

Major stationary CO2 emission sources that could potentially be used for algae production are shown in Exhibit 9.5. The sources shown (NATCARB, 2008) represent over half of the more than 6 billion metric tons of CO2 emitted annually in the United States (EPA, 2009; EIA, 2008 and 2009). Power generation alone (mainly using coal) represents over 40% of the total, or more than 2 billion metric tons per year (EIA, 2008 and 2009).

Barriers to Viable CO2 Capture and Utilization

The degree to which stationary CO2 emissions can be captured and used affordably for algae production will be limited by the operational logistics and efficiencies, and the availability of land and water for algae cultivation scale-up within reasonable geographic proximity of stationary sources.

As an example, a recent analysis suggests that for algae production to fully utilize the CO2 in the flue gas emitted from a 50-MWe semi-base load natural-gas-fired power plant would require about 2,200 acres of algae cultivation area (Brune et al., 2009). The CO2 generated by the power plant can only be effectively used by the algae during the photosynthetically active sunlight hours. As a result, the greenhouse gas emissions offset will be limited to an estimated 20% to 30% of the total power plant emissions due to CO2 off-gassing during non-sunlight hours and the unavoidable parasitic losses of algae production (Brune et al., 2009). Larger coal-fired base-load generators that typically output a steady 1,000 to 2500 MWe of power would each require many tens of thousands of acres of algae production and large volumes of water to provide a similar effective offset of 20% to 30% of the CO2 emitted.

The distance for pumping flue gas to algae cultivation systems will become a limiting factor that requires capture and concentration of CO2 from the flue gas for longer distance transport and distribution.

Photoautotrophic algae will only utilize CO2 during daylight hours when photosynthesis is active. The rate of effective CO2 uptake will also vary with the algae species, biomass growth rate, and details of growth system and incident light conditions. Therefore, the requirements for CO2 supply to enhance algae production, and the matching of CO2 source availability with algal cultivation facilities, is not a simple issue. In addition, it will be necessary to provide a CO2 source that is suitably free of materials potentially toxic to algae.

One outcome of a hypothetical algae production scale-up scenario is the limited quantity of CO2 that would likely be available from stationary industrial point sources (e.g., Exhibit 9.5) within practical transport distances of suitable algae production sites in a given geographical region. This can be expected to constrain the extent to which algal biofuels production can be affordably scaled up within any given region unless other factors drive the investment in expanding the nation’s CO2 pipeline infrastructure.

CATEGORY CO2 EMISSIONS

(Million Metric Ton/Year)

NUMBER OF SOURCES
Ag Processing 6.3 140
Cement Plants 86.3 112
Electricity Generation 2,702.5 3,002
Ethanol Plants 41.3 163
Fertilizer 7.0 13
Industrial 141.9 665
Other 3.6 53
Petroleum and Natural

Gas Processing

90.2 475
Refineries/Chemical 196.9 173
Total 3,276.1 4,796

 

Land Factors for Evaluating Land for Algal Production

Land availability will be important for algae production because either open or closed systems will require relatively large areas for implementation, as is expected with any photosynthesis-based biomass feedstock. Even at levels of photoautotrophic microalgae biomass and oil productivity that would stretch the limits of an aggressive R&D program (e.g., target annual average biomass production of 30 to 60 g/m2 per day with 30% to 50% neutral lipid content on a dry weight basis), such systems would require in the range of roughly 800 to 2600 acres of algae culture surface area to produce 10 million gallons of oil feedstock,

Land availability is influenced by various physical, social, economic, legal, and political factors, as illustrated in Exhibit 9.6.

Physical characteristics, such as topography and soil, could limit the land available for open pond algae farming. Soils, and particularly their porosity and permeability characteristics, affect the construction costs and design of open systems by virtue of the need for pond lining or sealing. Topography would be a limiting factor for these systems because the installation of large shallow ponds requires relatively flat terrain. Areas with more than 5% slope could well be eliminated from consideration due to the high cost that would be required for site preparation and leveling.

Exhibit 9.5 Major stationary CO2 sources in the United States (NATCARB, 2008a) CATEGORYCO2 EMISSIONS NUMBER OF SOURCES (Million Metric Ton/Year) Ag Processing 6.3 140 Cement Plants 86.3 112 Electricity Generation 2,702.5 3,002 Ethanol Plants 41.3 163 Fertilizer 7.0 13 Industrial 141.9 665 Other 3.6 53 Petroleum and Natural Gas Processing 90.2 475 Refineries/Chemical 196.9 173 Total 3,276.1 4,796

Contributing to productivity limits per unit of illuminated surface area is the fact that algal cells nearest the illuminated surface absorb the light and shade their neighbors farther from the light source. Optimizing light utilization in algae production systems includes the challenge of managing dissipative energy losses that occur when incident photons that cannot otherwise be effectively captured and used by the algae in photosynthesis are instead converted to thermal (heat) energy in the culture media and surrounding cultivation system structures. Depending on the algae strain and culture system approach used, the dissipative heat loading can be a benefit in moderating culture temperatures and improving productivity under colder ambient conditions, or can lead to overheating and loss of productivity during hotter ambient conditions.

Relatively large-scale commercial algae production with open ponds for high-value products can serve as a baseline reference, but currently reflect lower biomass productivities in the range of 10 – 20 g/m2 per day. This is significantly lower than the more optimistic target projections for biofuel feedstock of 30 – 60 g/m2 per day.

Land use and land value affect land affordability. By reviewing the more recent economic analyses for algae biomass and projected oil production, the cost of land is often not considered or is relatively small compared to other capital cost. Land that is highly desirable for development and other set-asides for publically beneficial reasons may not be seen as suitable for algae production. The same applies to land highly suited for higher-value agricultural use. Beyond economics, this also avoids the perception and potential conflict of food and feed production versus fuel.

Land cover categories such as barren and scrubland cover a large portion of the West and may provide an area free from other food-based agriculture where algae growth systems could be sited (Maxwell et al., 1985). The availability and sustainability of water supplies in the West will also be a key consideration,

Integration with Water Treatment Facilities

Inevitably, wastewater treatment and recycling must be incorporated with algae biofuel production. The main connections of algae production and wastewater treatment are the following: • Treatment technology is needed to recycle nutrients and water from algae biofuel processing residuals for use in algae production. • Imported wastewater provides nutrients and water to make-up inevitable losses. The imported wastewater would be treated as part of the algae production. • Algae-based wastewater treatment provides a needed service. • Algae-based wastewater treatment can be deployed in the near-term and provides workforce training

For large-scale algae biofuel production, nutrients from wastewater (municipal and agricultural) would be captured by algae and then recycled from the oil extraction residuals for additional rounds of algae production. Nutrient recycling would be needed since wastewater flows in the United States are insufficient to support large-scale algae production on the basis of a single use of nutrients. Inevitable nutrients losses during algae production and processing could be made up with wastewater nutrients, which can also help supplement and off-set the cost of commercial fertilizers for algae production. Supply and cost of nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium) be a key issue for achieving affordable and sustainable scale-up of algae biofuels production.

The major classes of wastewaters to be treated are municipal, organic industrial (e.g., food processing), organic agricultural (e.g., confined animal facilities), and eutrophic waters with low organic content but high nutrient content (e.g., agricultural drainage, lakes, and rivers). Despite a seeming abundance of wastewater and waste nutrients, recycling of nutrients and carbon at algae production facilities will be needed if algae are to make a substantial contribution to national biofuel production. Even with internal recycling, importation of wastes and/or wastewater will still be needed in dedicated algae biomass production facilities to make up for nutrient losses (Brune et al., 2009).

Closed photobioreactors are not emphasized in this wastewater treatment discussion since they are likely to be economical only when also producing high-value products (>$100/kg biomass), which is unlikely when wastewater contaminants are present.

As with other algae production systems, harvesting is a crucial step in wastewater treatment systems. The standard method is chemical addition to achieve coagulation and flocculation, followed by algae separation in dissolved air flotation units or sedimentation clarifiers. The cost of chemical addition ($0.10 – $0.17 per m3 treated) (Maglion, 2008) is high for biofuel production. Nonchemical flocculation processes (bioflocculation and autoflocculation) are far less costly, but research is needed to improve the reliability of these processes

The removal of trace contaminants (e.g., endocrine disrupting compounds such as human hormones and antibiotics from animal facilities) is an area in need of study.

any heavy metals contaminating the algal biomass likely would remain in the waste from biofuel processing, potentially increasing the cost of waste disposal or recycling.

For algae-based treatment of low-organic content wastewaters, CO2 addition or slow atmospheric absorption is essential since inorganic carbon generation from decomposition of organic matter would not be significant.

Co-location of Algal Cultivation Facilities with CO2-Emitting Industries

It is important to point out that amongst the numerous barriers to co-location of algal cultivation facilities with industrial CO2 sources identified at the Workshop and subsequent discussions with electric utilities, an overriding theme was that electric utilities primarily view algae cultivation as a means of CO2 capture as opposed to a method for producing biofuels and co-products.

fossil fired power plants, it is also relevant to other CO2-intensive industries (e.g., cement manufacturing, fossil fuel extraction/refining, fermentation-based industries, some geothermal power production, etc.). The emissions from many of these facilities have higher CO2 concentrations compared to power plant flue gas, which typically ranges from about 5% to about 15%, depending on the type of plant and fuel used.

An important policy question to consider is the value of CO2 absorption by algae in any carbon-credit or cap and trade framework, in that the carbon will be re-released to the atmosphere when algal-derived fuels are combusted. While algae biofuels can be expected to result in a net reduction of overall GHG emissions, the process of capturing flue-gas CO2 to make transportation fuels may not rigorously be considered carbon sequestration.

The quantitative breakdown, introduced earlier in Exhibit 9.5, shows that fossil-fired power plants represent the majority of CO2 emissions from stationary sources.

but, as with baseload coal-fired plants, would also emit CO2 during periods of darkness when it cannot be utilized by the algae through photosynthesis. During those times, the CO2 would be emitted to the atmosphere if not captured and sequestered by other means

Barriers to Co-Location of Algae Production with Stationary Industrial CO2 Sources

  1. Need for nutrient sources: While stationary industrial sources of concentrated CO 2 can potentially provide ample carbon for photosynthesis-driven algal growth, in most cases there will not be a complementary nutrient (N, P, K) supply. Therefore nutrients must be brought in from other sources, or in some cases algal cultivation could be co-located with both stationary CO2 sources and nutrient sources such as wastewater treatment facilities and agricultural waste streams.
  2. Land availability: Suitable and affordable vacant land may not be available adjacent to or near major power plants
  3. Emissions from ponds are at ground level: Regulatory requirements from power plants and other stationary sources are governed by the Clean Air Act, and are based upon point-source emissions from high elevations. The use of flue gas to cultivate algae will involve non-point source emissions at ground level.
  4. Capital costs and operational costs: There exists a need to evaluate capital costs and parasitic operational losses (and costs) for infrastructure and power required to capture and deliver industrial CO2 to ponds and grow/harvest algae. These costs and losses must be minimized and compared to other approaches for the capture and sequestration or reuse of carbon. Current estimates are that approximately 20% – 30% of a power plant’s greenhouse gas emissions can be offset by algae biofuel and protein production. Although often referred to as a “free” resource, the capture and delivery of concentrated CO2 from stationary industrial sources as a supplement to enhance and optimize algae production will not be “free”.
  5. Too much CO 2 near plants for realistic absorption: Large power plants release too much CO 2 to be absorbed by algal ponds at a realistic scale likely to be possible near the power plant facility. The same generally holds true for other stationary industrial sources of CO2 (cement plants, ethanol plants, etc.). Also, CO2 is only absorbed during periods when sunlight is available and photosynthesis is active in the algae.
  6. Maintaining cultivation facilities during utility outages.
  7. Resistance from electric utilities: Electric utilities are not in the fuels business and regulated public utility commissions will be constrained in entering the fuel production arena. Their fundamental objective will be to capture CO2 as opposed to producing biofuels and co-products.

Significant investment is expected to be required to overcome the various technical and economic challenges along each of these pathways, as discussed throughout the Roadmap.

Exhibit 10.4 Scoping the content for Systems Techno-Economic Modeling and Analysis: Key topic areas and issues for the overall algal biofuels supply chain

Algal biofuels remain an emerging field at a relatively immature stage of development.

Siting -Land -Land (cost, location, tilt, geology, soil) – Solar Insolation – Temperatures – Climate/Weather Policy

Algae -Species -Species – Characteristics – Requirements – Performance – GMOs Biology Feedbacks Resources – CO2 / Flue Gas Conditioning- Water or Treatment- Nutrients (NPK) Design Feedbacks Cultivation -Autotrophic -Autotrophic – Heterotrophic – Open systems – Closed systems – Hybrid systems Nutrient Feedbacks Carbohydrates Broader Environment & Economy Conversion Biofuels

Co-Gen Energy Feedbacks Capital Construction, Operations, Monitoring, Maintenance, Replacement Market Externalities: Cost of Energy, Cost of Petroleum & Conventional Fuels, Demand & Price for Co-Products vs. their alternatives, etc.

Other chapters of this Roadmap point out the lack of availability of detailed information about the characteristics of algae themselves and the characteristics (energy requirements and costs) of the systems and processes that are shown in the process flow diagram of Exhibit 10.8. A substantial number of barriers are enumerated and designated as goals to be achieved.

An example of this type of analysis is presented in Exhibit 10.8. Exhibit 10.8 represents a mass and energy balance systems level view of an algal biomass and algal lipid cultivation and extraction system. Inputs to

The value of this kind of systems mass and energy balance assessment is that it can help assess the overall viability of a given algal biomass production system and show what steps in the process are most energy intensive, thus highlighting areas for research and development. The development of mass and energy based systems models can help evaluate different proposed processes for overall viability and examine the sensitivity of different assumptions in individual processes to the overall system.

Geographic Information System (GIS) Visualization and Analysis tools

  • Land and water resources (characteristics, availability, etc.) • Climatic characteristics (temperature, precipitation, solar insolation, etc.) • Water evaporation loss (function of climate, etc.) • CO2 resources (point source emitters, pipelines) • Fuel processing, transport, storage infrastructure • Other infrastructure and environmental features

Several critical resource factors will impact large-scale, sustainable production of microalgae biomass. These include climate and the adequate availability of water, efficiency of water use, availability of suitable land, and availability of supplemental CO2 and other nutrient (N, P, K) supplies.

Producing biofuels that are highly compatible, or totally fungible, with the existing hydrocarbon fuel handling, distribution, and end-use infrastructure would result in easier and more widespread market acceptance. The same would apply to co-products and their potential markets. These and related issues should be an integral part of techno-economic modeling, analysis and LCA for algae, with the appropriate models, tools, and data sets developed and leveraged to provide the necessary assessment

page 102. Recent analysis suggests an upper theoretical limit on the order of ~38,000 gal/ac-yr (263158 acres or 411 square miles)and perhaps a practical limit on the order of ~4,350 – 5,700 gal/ac-yr, based on the expected losses, photosynthetic efficiency, and other assumptions made in the analysis (which include the availability of high solar insolation consistent with lower latitudes and/or high percentage of clear weather conditions, 50% oil content, etc.).  So making 10 billion gallons of algal biofuel to replace 5% of our oil would require about 2,700 to 3,600 square miles of flat land with a very optimistic 50% oil content algae in a sunny area.   to 1754385 to  2298850 acres

  • The average annual insolation is generally the dominant and rate-limiting factor for autotrophic algal productivity, and this factor varies widely across the country among inland, coastal, and offshore sites. This variation will determine the spatial surface area of cultivation systems needed to achieve a set amount of product; it will affect the amount of CO2 that can be captured; and it will affect the amount of culture that will need to be processed on a daily basis. The daily, seasonal, and annual variation in solar insolation, as well as other climate-related factors such as temperature and weather (cloud cover, precipitation, wind, etc.) will also affect both the productivity and reliability of production.
  • Availability, cost, and sustainability of suitable water supplies for algae production will be a key input factor for inland cultivation, and will be heavily dependent on geographical location and local conditions. Areas of the country with the highest solar resource best suited for algae growth also tend to be more arid and subject to more limited water supplies. Under large commercial algae industry build-up scenarios, the amount of water required nationally could begin to approach the same order of magnitude as large scale agriculture, particularly with open systems subject to evaporative loss. Capture and re-use of non-fresh water, in particular, can potentially help fill this need, but will be dependent on the geographical location, availability, and affordable accessibility of such water sources.
  • The supply, availability, and cost of organic carbon feedstock needed as input for heterotrophic microalgae production will play a major role in the commercial viability and extent to which national production capacity can expand using the heterotrophic approach. Sugar from commodity crops and other organic carbon materials from industrial or municipal waste streams can provide bridge feedstock in the near term, but major sustainable scale-up of national production capacity will demand the use of sugars and other suitable organic carbon source materials derived originally from lignocellulosic biomass. As with cellulosic ethanol, the logistics and costs associated with producing, transporting, and appropriately processing lignocellulosic biomass materials in the form of woody and herbaceous energy crops, waste materials from agriculture and forest industries, and municipal waste streams will be location-dependent. The affordability of generating organic carbon feedstock from such materials will also depend on technical advances and processing improvements needed to reduce the cost of lignocellulosic material deconstruction into simple sugars and other organic carbon compounds suitable for feeding heterotrophic microalgae.
  • The supply, availability, and cost of other nutrients (i.e., N, P, K) required as inputs for algae growth will also play a role in commercial viability and extent of industrial build-up. Commercial fertilizer costs are tied closely to the cost of energy supplies (natural gas and petroleum), and can be an appreciable factor in operational costs for algae (Massingale et al., 2008) to the same extent as for large scale commercial agriculture (Huang, 2009; Malcolm et al., 2009). In the absence of nitrogen fixation, algae can require as much, if not more, nitrogen than conventional biomass crops on a mass balance basis (Alexander et al., 2008). Under large commercial algae industry build-up scenarios, the amount of nutrients required nationally could begin to approach the same order of magnitude as large scale agriculture, where recent cost and supply issues have had negative impacts on the industry (Huang, 2009). The capture and reuse of nutrients from various agricultural and municipal waste streams (Woertz et al., 2009) can potentially help supply nutrients for algae production scale-up, but this will be dependent on the geographical location, availability, and affordable accessibility of such nutrient sources.
  • CO2 availability and cost of delivery will play a major role in autotrophic microalgae cultivation scalability and operating expense. As noted here and in chapter 9, it will be advantageous to co-locate cultivation facilities with stationary industrial CO2 sources, but this will not be feasible in all instances and thus, it may be necessary to transport CO2 over some distance. Even in the case of co-location, the size of an autotrophic algae facility will require extensive pipeline infrastructure for CO2 distribution, adding to the cost. The quality of the CO2 source will also play a role for algal growth, and some sources are likely to require more cleanup than others (especially if there are plans for animal feed as a co-product and/or if the CO2 source stream includes contaminants that inhibit algae growth). Algae can be effective at capturing and concentrating heavy metal contaminants (Aksu, 1998; Mehta and Gaur, 2005), such as are present in some forms of flue gas. This could impact the suitability of residual biomass for co-products like animal feed,
  • Land prices and availability can also impact the cost of biofuel production at inland and coastal sites. For offshore sites, the right of access and use, and the associated logistics, risks, and costs of offshore marine operations will have a major impact on costs of production. Cost of site preparation and infrastructure facilities for offshore, coastal, and inland sites will all be location-dependent. It is reasonably straightforward to calculate the impact of the cost of land, and perhaps also for offshore sites, on the overall cost of total algal biomass and intermediate feedstock fraction (e.g., lipids, carbohydrates, proteins, other) production, but for each approach it will likely be an optimum minimum and range of size for a commercial production facility. If it is necessary to distribute the facility over a number of smaller parcels of land or offshore sites, it may not be possible to get the most benefit of economies of scale. The key tradeoffs will be between the cost of overall production (capital and operating costs) versus the matching of affordable production scale to the sustainable and affordable supply of the required input resources with the required output product processing and distribution infrastructure and markets.
  • As in traditional agriculture, the temperature during the growing season will restrict the ability to cultivate specific strains for extended durations. For open systems operating at inland sites in the summer, water evaporation rates will provide some level of temperature control, but evaporation will also add to operating cost (for water replacement and/or for salt management with brackish or saline water.

Conversely, closed systems operating inland can overheat, requiring active cooling that can add prohibitively to the cost of operations. Waste heat and energy from co-located industries or the CO2 source may allow active thermal management for growth during periods of suboptimal (high or low) temperature, but applying this heat or energy to extensive algal cultivation systems will provide the same engineering problems and costs as transporting and distributing CO2.

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is a “cradle-to-grave” analysis approach for assessing the resource use and environmental impacts and tradeoffs of industrial systems and processes. LCA is important for assessing relative GHG emissions and other resource utilization (e.g., water, energy) impacts among different approaches to algal biofuels production, and in comparison with fuels based on other renewable and non-renewable feedstocks. LCA is considered to be a key element of the scope of TE modeling and analysis within the context of this roadmap.

The term “life cycle” refers to the major activities in the course of the product’s life-span, from manufacture, use, and maintenance, to final disposal, including the raw material acquisition required to manufacture the product (EPA, 1993). Exhibit 10.11 illustrates the typical life cycle stages considered in an LCA and the typical inputs/ outputs measured.

Algae Production Costs and Uncertainties

Data gathering and validation of technical and economic system performance for an industry that has yet to be commercially realized is one of the biggest challenges for techno-economic analysis.

While most citable sources are quite dated, they also present a wide variability in approach to final costs (from per gallon of algal oil to per kg of “raw” biomass) and illustrate a general lack of demonstrated operating parameters and widely varying basic assumptions on a number of parameters from algal productivity to capital depreciation costs, operating costs, and co-product credits. These shortcomings of the existing literature and modeling knowledge base present a challenge in designing scaled up systems.

The algal biofuels industry is still in its infancy. More specifically, given the current state of this industry, the business strategies of many existing companies are focused on one or more aspects of algae, but not necessarily producing transportation biofuels from cultivated algal biomass at scale.

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Richard Heinberg: “An Order of Chaos Please”

[ Richard Heinberg’s article comes after my comments below:

It really matters who is in power when the energy crisis hits, because some leaders will soften collapse more than others. Surely right-wing / libertarian “everyone for themselves” leaders will have the most unfair rationing plans, and allocate more of the remaining oil to themselves (as has happened in North Korea). In 1980 the Department of Energy gave agriculture the top priority. But under libertarian Koch-brothers creature VP Mike Pence (their 3rd choice for president in 2012) or other right-wing leaders, will the military go to the top of the priority list so they can invade oil producing countries?

And of course it will be “Drill Baby Drill!” offshore California and Florida, on federal land, national parks, perhaps a a Manhattan project to drill in the Arctic and build nuclear reactors in the tar sands, since only 29% of them can be obtained with declining natural gas and water.

More benevolent, cooperative leaders who see the role of government as distributing resources fairly to everyone, as in Scandinavian countries (also the happiest nations on earth), are more likely to give agriculture top priority, distribute food more widely and fairly, build refugee camps in cities, teach people new skills, resettle some of them, and build infrastructure for a muscle/biomass powered civilization that existed for most of human history until fossil fuels arrived and we mushroomed from 1 to 7 billion people (though meanwhile wasting energy/money on useless electricity generation contraptions). 

Is there seriously anyone think Trump and VP Mike Pence would be more fair and do as much as possible to lessen suffering as Clinton?  And there are many reasons to think Republicans are more likely to start WW III than Clinton as well.

I’ve read hundreds of muckraking books about the financial and political system the past 40 years. The most important book of the past 10 years is Jane Mayer’s “Dark Money”, and “White Trash” and “The making of Donald Trump” are interesting as well.

After reading “Dark Money” it’s hard not to conclude there has already been a sneaky right-wing coup in many states (and now at the Federal level as well with VP Pence and at least 2 supreme court appointments), largely due to billions spent by the Koch brothers and their wealthy right-wing partners and tax-deductible “charities” to create gerrymandered districts, win state level races for the house, senate, governors, judges, and other  races, defeat state initiatives and promote their own initiatives that benefit their corporations, not to mention infiltrating 100 universities, including the Ivy leagues with donations that support economic and legal professors teaching their free market, no taxes, no regulations, get rid of government ideologies.  Well, there would still be a government, but its only duty would be to protect their businesses and private property.

This hidden right-wing influence via dark money (thanks Citizens United!) is how the Tea Party began. It was not a popular uprising at all.

The un-elected rich also spent a great deal of money on propaganda to convince Republicans that Obamacare was a bad thing (initially they liked it).  They also brought government to a stand-still, have prevented Obama from appointing a Supreme court judge, and promise to do the same if Clinton is elected, hope to send women back to the dark ages by not allowing them to have control over their own bodies and futures by undoing Roe vs Wade, prevented blacks and other voters likely to vote democratic from doing so…and too many other things to list.  All of it so they can grow even richer.

This matters a great deal because no matter who is elected, we are going to enter hard times as energy and natural resources decline at the same time as population is still growing. If the carrying capacity of the U.S. is about 100 million people without fossil fuels according to several scientists, and half of Americans own guns, millions have military training, 80% of people live within 200 miles of the coasts but 80% of calories come from the corn and wheat belts of the interior: that doesn’t bode well.  And Republicans brains are wired to deny science and reality.

In a collapse, just about everyone will wish their leaders and culture were more like Fidel Castro and Cuba, because in a collapse, only the most brutal and the most cooperative survive.

There are already three examples of what happens when oil is suddenly cut off:

  1. Japan (brutal). This is why they started started WW II
  2. North Korea (brutal)
  3. Cuba (cooperative). Castro helped in many ways, such as preventing middle-men from profiting off of the disaster (i.e. truckers who tried to sell produce in Havana at 10 times what they paid farmers had their trucks confiscated). Oxen were quickly bred to replace tractors, organic farming instigated on a massive basis not only in the country but in cities too, and so on. Yes there was suffering, but not the millions of deaths as happened in North Korea.

Venezuela now seems to be in collapse with their own unique descent from a mix of bad leadership and culture.

Russia also had a downturn, and an article by Dmitry Orlov called “How Russians survived the collapse of the Soviet Union” explains why the Soviet culture was far better prepared than American culture to cope in a collapse. 

If your local and state leaders have been bought and paid for by the right-wing, they are enabling their selfish psychopathic libertarian owners achieve their goal of no taxes and no regulations to grow richer. How do you think that will end up? Stalin, Hitler, Mao and Pol Pot come to mind.

After reading “White Trash” I learned that many of the rich see most of us as disposable white trash (and have since America was founded and on back to Europe). And that very few of us have ever had a chance of getting rich, not even the first settlers who came to America. This is because early on, wealthy Americans already owned most of the land and had economies of scale that soon put middle-class and poor farmers out of business, especially if they had free slave labor, and so their property continued to grow.  Now just 3% of Americans own 85% of non-government land. Seven million farms existed in 1920, now there are million farms, with just a few percent of them that own thousands of acres producing more than half of the food using economies of scale industrial techniques and equipment dependent on fossil fuels, and continue to drive smaller farms bankrupt. Care for a feudal society anyone?

It really will matter who is in power as collapse accelerates. It wouldn’t surprise me if the goal of the right-wing rich is to continue to live their lives as before by keeping the lion’s share of energy and natural resources that’s still left, just as North Korean leaders have done. And like Japan, start WW III byinvading the Middle East and Central/South America, where three-fourths of the remaining oil reserves are.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts: Practical Prepping, KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report ]

Richard Heinberg. November 4, 2016. An Order of Chaos Please.  resilience.org

George Packer explains why our current scorched-earth politics have historical roots, some of which have to do with economic and demographic trends, some with the personalities and tactics of significant players, of whom Packer singles out three sowers of discord on the political right: Newt Gingrich, Andrew Breitbart, and Donald Trump, in an article in the current New Yorker,Hillary Clinton and the Populist Revolt”.  Terry Gross interviewed Packer on the November 3 edition of “Fresh Air,” and the podcast is worth listening to. To summarize just a little of Packer’s article and interview:

Gingrich, who will forever be remembered as having led the impeachment of then-President Bill Clinton for lying about an extramarital affair, while he himself was having an affair about which he lied repeatedly, introduced take-no-prisoners tactics to Congress, twice shutting down the government and raising partisan demonization to a dark art form. Breitbart upended traditional journalism with his eponymous alt-right website, helping create a political discourse in which facts and arguments no longer matter. Trump has more recently built on these dubious achievements, capitalizing on the disappointments and resentments of white wage-class Americans who were on the losing end of Washington’s and Wall Street’s giddy flings with globalization and financialization. Gingrich and Breitbart birthed a politics of destruction; now Trump stands Samson-like between the pillars of the temple.

The Trump phenomenon couldn’t have taken off if it weren’t for the fact that millions of Americans are already living a nightmare—at least, compared to how life was for them and their parents a few decades ago. Packer wrote revealingly of the declining prospects of wage-class Americans in his 2013 book The Unwinding, describing through observation, interview, and analysis the experiences of people caught up in cultural and economic decay. Starting in the 1980s, the Democratic Party—which previously represented the interests of labor unions and the wage-earning class—deserted that constituency in favor of urban professionals and various identity groups (African Americans, Latinos, liberated women, and gays). Meanwhile the Republican Party adopted a southern strategy, playing on white resentments lingering since the Civil War, cultivating the support of evangelical Christians, and making inroads among the languishing working class.

Packer doesn’t mention that American civilization was destined to unravel anyway. To understand why, we need an education in history and archaeology (read Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies), an understanding of the implications of fossil fuel depletion (my own book The Party’s Over is not a bad place to start), and a little background in boom-bust economic cycles (try Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles, or David Graeber’s Debt). A small library of books has been written since the turn of the millennium describing the inevitability of civilizational decline or collapse due both to social pressures from unsustainable debt levels, increasing inequality, and rampant corruption; and to deeper infrastructural issues having to do with resource depletion, pollution (in the form of climate change), and the essential unsustainability of economic growth. Several authors, myself among them, have been warning that America risks coming apart. The current election cycle enables, or forces, us to watch the spectacle as it unfolds.

Of course, events will transpire differently depending on who wins. If Hillary Clinton is the victor, then we can anticipate a crisis of legitimacy, along with various manifestations of simmering rebellion. If Democrats fail to take the Senate, Washington will enter a (probably short) era of continual and complete gridlock, with full-time hearings and investigations. Republicans have already promised to block Clinton’s Supreme Court nominees, and Trump has warned of a constitutional crisis if Clinton is elected. In the best-case scenario (from the standpoint of maintaining the status quo), the Democrats do take the Senate, in which case there is at least the possibility of two more years of some increasingly bizarre and dysfunctional version of business-as-usual, until the mid-term election—when the Senate could very well flip back to Republican hands, particularly if there’s an economic recession (there will be an unusually large number of Democratic senate seats up for grabs then). If that happens, gridlock and witch-hunting would begin in earnest.

If Donald Trump wins, America won’t be great again—not by a long shot. Instead we will be treated to a different crisis of legitimacy: over half the country (including powerful members of the Republican party) will continue to regard the new leader with utter contempt, as they already do, and he will be nagged and hobbled by the Trump University fraud lawsuit and possibly other, more devastating legal challenges. It would be a non-stop train wreck with horrifying casualties, but the TV ratings would be fabulous. Trump has demonstrated a tendency to mow his critics aside and grab attention and power in any way possible; if he becomes president we’ll see how those tendencies play out on the world stage.

The government of the United States of America has developed increasing numbers of tics, limps, and embarrassing cognitive lapses during the past ten or 15 years, but it has managed to go on with the show. Yet as dysfunction snowballs, a maintenance crisis becomes inevitable at some point. When the crunch comes (most likely as a result of the next cyclical economic downturn, which is already overdue and could be much worse than that of 2008), we will reap the fruits of a system that is simply no longer capable of acting cooperatively to solve problems. The trials of legitimacy that both Clinton and Trump face mean that—regardless which is elected—the country will be less able to address existing threats (e.g., climate change) let alone new ones that may arise, such as a serious recession or a major natural disaster. Crisis will demand action, but how can action be mobilized with the country so politically polarized and the government itself in paralysis? The details of what emerges from here on will depend on all sorts of current unknowables. But those who think life in America can’t get any worse may have a few surprises in store. And we probably won’t have long to wait before that chain of surprises begins unreeling.

The nightmare of the election itself will end soon. But we may not like what we wake up to. Increasingly, it’s up to communities to build resilience—not just to climate change, but to the whole cascading chain of social, economic, and political impacts from the bursting of the fossil-fueled growth bubble.

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Dams: last 100-200 years, make floods worse, an environmental disaster, most will soon be past their lifespan

Failing Dams in the news:

Within the next 20 years, 85% of U.S. dams that cost taxpayers $2 trillion dollars will have outlived their average 50-year lifespan, putting lives, property, the environment, and the climate at risk unless they are repaired and upgraded.  Thousands of aging dams should be repaired or destroyed, at a cost of billions.

Dams only last 100-200 years

  • Dams don’t last because all dams fill up with sediment at a rate of between half a percent and one percent of the dam’s storage capacity.
  • Usually this sediment can’t be removed, even if it can, it’s very expensive — $3 per cubic meter or more

More water can evaporate from a dammed reservoir than they store

  • This is due to evaporation, which consumes 5 to 15% of the fresh water in reservoirs
  • This is why the Rio Grande and Colorado rivers don’t reach the sea anymore
  • It would be better to keep the water in clean aquifers than dammed reservoirs, but farming irrigation is depleting groundwater faster than it can accumulate

Dams are an environmental disaster

  • By restraining sediment, dams accelerate erosion below
  • Precious topsoil crumbles into rivers and either gets trapped by dams or flows out to sea
  • Dams pollute and alter the chemistry and biology of rivers. They warm the water and lower the oxygen levels which favors invasive species and algae blooms while blocking and killing native species both down and upstream
  • Rivers have more endangered species than any other ecosystem, with many important species, such as pacific salmon and southern freshwater mussels facing extinction almost entirely because of dams
  • Dams also pollute the air – only 2% generate clean power, the rest worsen climate change because of methane releases – up to 4% of human total warming from the 52,000 large dams (over 50 feet high) and 25% of human-caused methane emissions, and even more than that if the smaller dams were taken into account

Dams can make floods worse

  • Dams initially designed for flood control may actually make floods more destructive because people have moved into downstream floodplains
  • Upstream watersheds can no longer absorb and control extreme storms
  • Mild rainstorms in October 2005 & may 2006 caused 408 over-toppings, breaches, and damaged dams in just 3 states alone
  • Only half of dams even have emergency action plans

Dams fail eventually

  • As they age, they crack, rot, leak, and eventually collapse
  • There’s very little money to maintain public or private dams.
  • The American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. dams and water infrastructure a grade of D
  • It would cost up to $36.2 billion to fix NON-federal dams
  • Cash-strapped states are doing almost nothing – dozens of states have only one full-time employee per 500 to 1,200 dams to check on their safety
  • Owners of old dams litigate and lobby against safety rules, or walk away – 11% of dams are abandoned now

There are

  • 2.5 million dams in the United States
  • 79,000 of these are so large they need to be monitored
  • Worldwide there are 800,000 substantial dams

California

  • The world’s 8th largest economy
  • generates 13% of U.S. wealth.
  • Needs another $6 billion in dams to store water because high temperatures, low rainfall, and a growing population have created a water crisis
  • 1,253 dams are risky enough to be regulated
  • 50 times that many unregistered small dams
  • $200 million dollars is the cost of removing 4 dams on the Klamath rive

Large Dam history in North America:

  • 13% for flood control
  • 11% for irrigation
  • 10% for water supply
  • 11% for hydropower
  • 24% for some other single purpose such as recreation or navigation
  • 30% for a mix of these purposes.

Today, the primary reason is drinking water storage and, to a far lesser extent, hydropower and irrigation.

References

James G. Workman. 9 Oct 2007. How to Fix Our Dam Problems. Thousands of aging dams should be repaired or destroyed, at a cost of billions. A cap-and-trade policy could speed the process and help pay the bills. Issues in Science and Technology. National Academies of Sciences.

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Kurt Cobb on the true definition of corruption

Kurt Cobb. April 10, 2016. Corruption, resources, climate and systemic risk.  resourceinsights.com

Corruption is a loaded word. One person’s corruption is another’s sound social policy. Some people believe providing unemployment benefits to laid-off workers corrupts them by making them “lazy.” Many others think such benefits are sound social policy in an economic system that is prone to major cyclical ups and downs.

Fewer people agree that bailing out major U.S. banks at taxpayer expense in the aftermath of the 2008 crash was a good use of public money. An alternative would have been for the U.S. government to seize the banks, inject funds to stabilize them, and then resell them to investors, perhaps at a profit.

Was it corruption that led to the bailout instead of a takeover? Or was it an honest difference of opinion about what would work best under emergency circumstances?

We can argue whether these examples of transfers of funds from one group to another are fair. But by themselves they do not constitute a systemic risk to the stability of the entire economic and social system. In fact, some would argue that such transfers enhance that stability. However one evaluates these transfers, I would contend that a much worse corruption is to subject our society knowingly to systemic failures such as severe climate change and widespread crop failures.

To understand this contention, we must review the material basis for our modern society. Despite all the hype about the service economy, the activities which make the service economy even possible are agriculture, fishing, forestry, mining and manufacturing. These sectors create the surplus food and fiber, the surplus energy and minerals, and the surplus goods that allow so many of us to do something other than farm, fish, log, mine or manufacture goods.

By “surplus” I mean that those engaged in the five essential underlying activities of the modern economy provide more food and fiber, extract more energy and other mineral resources, and make more things than they themselves will use. In fact, in so-called developed societies, the people in these occupations create surpluses in their respective areas that are nothing short of astonishing.

In the United States for example, those working in agriculture, fishing and forestry number 2.4 million or about 1.6% of the working population of 149 million as of 2015 according the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Those working in mining including oil and natural gas production (which, after all, is really just another type of mining) number 917,000 or about 0.6% of the working population. These two groups provide most of the raw materials for the rest of the economy while constituting just 2.2% of the workforce. Some raw materials, notably oil and metal ores, are supplemented with imports. But that is counterbalanced in part by agricultural exports that are about one-third of all crops grown.

Those working in manufacturing number 15.3 million, dwarfing the number who actually provide the feedstocks for that manufacturing. But manufacturing workers still only constitute 10.3% of the total U.S. workforce. We also supplement our manufactured goods with imports. But we export high-value goods such as airplanes, pharmaceuticals and advanced machinery.

So, the percentage of the U.S. workforce that provides the actual material basis for the economy amounts to only 12.5 percent.

Even though American agricultural, fishing, forestry, mining and manufacturing systems are exceedingly efficient, this doesn’t mean that they are sustainable in the long run. Our agricultural practices by and large erode the soil and undermine its fertility, a process that ultimately will lead to a decline in food and fiber production if unaltered. Our fishing practices empty out fisheries faster than they can regenerate. Our forestry practices may be called sustainable, but removing vast carbon stores from the forest and merely replanting is unlikely to be sustainable in the long run.

When it comes to mining, we already know that mining nonrenewable sources of energy (oil, coal, natural gas) and other raw materials is by definition not sustainable in the long run. For fossil fuels, climate change makes this doubly true. We will ultimately have to find renewable substitutes or go without. Recycling is important, but we cannot recycle oil, coal and natural gas that have already been burned. And, a significant portion of metals that we mine are not recycled but scattered in landfills and in countless other places.

Now I finally return to the idea of corruption. We don’t normally think of unsustainable practices as corrupt. Corruption normally implies that the corrupt actor knows that what he or she is doing is ethically wrong or contrary to law. Most unsustainable practices are not contrary to law, and people will argue about whether they are even unsustainable. An act is not normally considered corrupt if the actor is acting in good faith and believes honestly that he or she is behaving ethically and legally. The person might be mistaken. But we don’t put people in jail very often for making honest mistakes (as opposed to negligence).

In the absence of definitive answers on sustainability–which we won’t have them until it’s too late to do anything–we surely face systemic risks. The failure of one or more of these five basic economic sectors to deliver the resources and goods upon which our society depends could be catastrophic–think: worldwide crop failure, decline in available fossil fuels, a shortage of critical metals needed for electronics (which are crucial to the functioning of modern society).

At the very least it is corrupt to subject society knowingly to potential catastrophic failures merely to enrich oneself or one’s associates. I am reminded of a cartoon in The New Yorker many years ago depicting a financial presentation for which the caption read:

And so, while the end-of-the-world scenario will be rife with unimaginable horrors, we believe that the pre-end period will be filled with unprecedented opportunities for profit.

While we are being entertained with the exploits of corrupt politicians and businesspeople who hid their money from taxation using dummy corporations concocted by Panamanian lawyers, we should try to remember that, while despicable, this kind of corruption pales in comparison to the kind that threatens to undermine the very material underpinnings of our society.

Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he has written columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin (now Resilience.org), The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights and can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.

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When will the corrupt financial system cause another financial collapse?

[ Conventional oil production peaked in 2005-6, so if a financial crash occurs, the net energy cliff will be much steeper on the other side, since new projects won’t get financed, and unconventional oil is very expensive to produce and will be unable to procure more loans.  This is why I’ve included finance in category Peak Oil, because oil production is not only geological.

I just can’t keep up with all the banking fraud.  Below are just a few of the 9 million google search results on “banking scandal” which can be found here, and “banking corruption” returns 48 million results

With no reform of the banking system (and Wall Street) I don’t see how we can possibly avoid a crash worse than 2008.  I was so outraged by the latest Wells Fargo scandal and the latest war on cash with negative interest rates that it’s hard to won’t happen soon (within the next 5 years).

Even if the financial system were 100% honest, conventional oil (90% of petroleum supplies) peaked in 2005, and that is why our economy stopped growing exponentially. Unconventional oil is barely filling in the gap.  When conventional oil declines more than unconventional can replace it, who will lend money that can’t possibly be paid back?  Every business depends on energy to grow.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts:  KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity]

2016. Real reason Wells Fargo scandal should scare you (1.5 million unauthorized Wells Fargo bank and credit card accounts created on behalf of unwitting customers by bank employees hoping to cash in on new account bonuses means fraud is systemic). cnn.com

2016. Deutsche Bank’s $10-Billion Scandal How a scheme to help Russians secretly funnel money offshore unravelled. newyorker.com

2016. Next Banking Scandal Explodes in Spain. wolfstreet.com

2016. One of the biggest scandals in Australian banking history? afr.com

2016. Anatomy of a Banking Scandal: The Keystone Bank Failure-Harbinger of the 2008 Financial Crisis.

2016. Europe’s Regulators Probe Banks as Shell Company Scandal Spreads. bloomberg.com

2016. Swiss private bank linked to Malaysia scandal. nypost.com

2016. UK Bank Scandal Costs Hit £39bn – Report. A study suggests that 60% of profit made by Britain’s biggest banks has been swallowed up to cover the cost of past mistakes. news.sky.com

2016. Big Banks Aided Firm At Center Of International Bribery Scandal. Unaoil relied on both banks as it cut deals with corrupt regimes. huffingtonpost.com

2015. Deutsche Bank to Pay $2.5 Billion Fine to Settle Rate-Rigging Case. New York Times.

2015. 3 Big Banking Scandals You Should Know About. thestreet.com

2015. Thousands protest in Moldova against $1 billion bank fraud. Reuters.com

2013 15 Recent Bank Scandals That Show Just How Powerless You Really Are. thoughtcatalog.com

2013. Another Banking Scandal. New York Times.

2012. Behind the Libor Scandal. New York Times.

2012. 10 Biggest Banking Scandals Of 2012. forbes.com

And 9 million more banking scandals (google search results) here

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (which Republicans in Congress keep trying to shut down):

2000. Whirlwind: The Butcher Banking Scandal. amazon book

1992. U.S. House of Representatives “Rubbergate”. amazon book

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Pensions face bankruptcy in the future

2016-4-10. US faces disastrous $3.4 trillion pension funding hole. Collective deficit of retirement plans is three times larger than official figures. Financial Times.

The US public pension system has developed a $3.4 trillion funding hole that will pile pressure on cities and states to cut spending or raise taxes to avoid Detroit-style bankruptcies. The Stanford study found that the states of Illinois, Arizona, Ohio and Nevada, and the cities of Chicago, Dallas, Houston and El Paso have the largest pension holes compared with their own revenues.

Devin Nunes, a US Republican congressman, said: “It has been clear for years that many cities and states are critically underfunding their pension programs and hiding the fiscal holes with accounting tricks. When these pension funds go insolvent, they will create problems so disastrous that the fund officials assume the federal government will have to bail them out.”

Large pension shortfalls have already played a role in driving several US cities, including Detroit in Michigan and San Bernardino in California, to file for bankruptcy. The fear is other cities will soon become insolvent due to the size of their pension deficits.

Joshua Rauh, a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, a think-tank, and professor of finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, who carried out the study, said: “The pension problems are threatening to consume state and local budgets in the absence of some major changes. It is quite likely that over a five to 10-year horizon we are going to see more bankruptcies of cities where the unfunded pension liabilities will play a large role.”

In order to deal with the large funding shortfall, many cities and states will have to increase their contributions to their pension funds, either by raising taxes or cutting spending on vital services.

Olivia Mitchell, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, told FTfm last month that US public pension plans face “grave difficulties. I do believe that US cities and towns will continue to suffer, and there will be additional bankruptcies following the examples of Detroit,” she said.

Currently, states and local governments contribute 7.3% of revenues to public pension plans, but this would need to increase to an average of 17.5% of revenues to stop any further rises in the funding gap, the research said.

Several cities and states, including California, Illinois, New Jersey, Chicago and Austin, would need to put at least 20% of their revenues into their pension plans to prevent a rise in their deficits, while Nevada would have to contribute almost 40%.

Mr Rauh’s study claims the “true extent” of funding problems in US public pension system has been obscured because plans calculate both their costs and liabilities on the assumption they will achieve returns of between 7 and 8% a year. This rate is “wildly optimistic and unlikely to be achieved. A more realistic return rate, based on US Treasury bond yields, is around 2 to 3% a year.

 

Melin, M. April 10, 2014. Bridgewater Founder Says 85 Percent Of Pensions will Go Bankrupt. $3 trillion in assets against $10 trillion in liabilities

Dalio’s mathematical skills are on display as he shocks observers saying US pension funds don’t have the wherewithal to pay out benefits in coming years.  What was stunning was not Dalio believing the pension math was turning negative, as Detroit and Chicago examples are in front of our eyes.  What was stunning is that he said it in such plain talk and so bluntly in public.

According to a USA Today report, Dalio does the math – and its doesn’t add up, says the man who studies mathematical probability tables for a living.  Bridgewater deduces that 85% of public pension funds will go bankrupt in three decades, and they are projected to achieve 4% returns on their assets, or worse.

After conducting his quantitative version of a stress test, Dalio likely threw a little discretionary analysis into his thesis.  The economic environment will not always be positive, if history is any guide. Odds are that economic environments will shift, and with a taper undoing the needle in the stock market’s arms, he considered a variety of realities. Public pensions have obligations exceeding $10 trillion, yet only $3 trillion in assets to cover the coming expenses.  That is simple math.  Bridgewater, then, notes an investment return of nearly 9% a year is required to meet those onerous obligations.  They won’t get 9% in bonds – that could be a drain on assets if the coming rise in interest rates reduces the asset value of bonds.  Public pensions are looking at a 20% shortfall, Bridgewater claimed in the USA Today report.

 

 

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Family Planning – A Special and Urgent Concern by the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.

[ Below are excerpts from this May 5, 1966 speech by Martin Luther King Jr. after he was awarded the Margaret Sanger Award by Planned Parenthood ]

Recently, the press has been filled with reports of sightings of flying saucers. While we need not give credence to these stories, they allow our imagination to speculate on how visitors from outer space would judge us. I am afraid they would be stupefied at our conduct. They would observe that for death planning we spend billions to create engines and strategies for war. They would also observe that we spend millions to prevent death by disease and other causes. Finally they would observe that we spend paltry sums for population planning, even though its spontaneous growth is an urgent threat to life on our planet. Our visitors from outer space could be forgiven if they reported home that our planet is inhabited by a race of insane men whose future is bleak and uncertain.

There is no human circumstance more tragic than the persisting existence of a harmful condition for which a remedy is readily available. Family planning, to relate population to world resources, is possible, practical and necessary.

Unlike plagues of the dark ages or contemporary diseases we do not yet understand, the modern plague of overpopulation is soluble by means we have discovered and with resources we possess.

What is lacking is not sufficient knowledge of the solution but universal consciousness of the gravity of the problem and education of the billions who are its victims.

There is a striking kinship between our movement and Margaret Sanger’s early efforts. She, like we, saw the horrifying conditions of ghetto life. Like we, she knew that all of society is poisoned by cancerous slums. Like we, she was a direct actionist – a nonviolent resister. She was willing to accept scorn and abuse until the truth she saw was revealed to the millions. At the turn of the century she went into the slums and set up a birth control clinic, and for this deed she went to jail because she was violating an unjust law. Yet the years have justified her actions. She launched a movement which is obeying a higher law to preserve human life under humane conditions. Margaret Sanger had to commit what was then called a crime in order to enrich humanity, and today we honor her courage and vision; for without them there would have been no beginning. Our sure beginning in the struggle for equality by nonviolent direct action may not have been so resolute without the tradition established by Margaret Sanger and people like her. Negroes have no mere academic nor ordinary interest in family planning. They have a special and urgent concern.

Recently the subject of Negro family life has received extensive attention. Unfortunately, studies have overemphasized the problem of the Negro male ego and almost entirely ignored the most serious element – Negro migration. During the past half century Negroes have migrated on a massive scale, transplanting millions from rural communities to crammed urban ghettoes. In their migration, as with all migrants, they carried with them the folkways of the countryside into an inhospitable city slum. The size of family that may have been appropriate and tolerable on a manually cultivated farm was carried over to the jammed streets of the ghetto. In all respects Negroes were atomized, neglected and discriminated against. Yet, the worst omission was the absence of institutions to acclimate them to their new environment. Margaret Sanger, who offered an important institutional remedy, was unfortunately ignored by social and political leaders in this period. In consequence, Negro folkways in family size persisted. The problem was compounded when unrestrained exploitation and discrimination accented the bewilderment of the newcomer, and high rates of illegitimacy and fragile family relationships resulted.

For the Negro, therefore, intelligent guides of family planning are a profoundly important ingredient in his quest for security and a decent life. There are mountainous obstacles still separating Negroes from a normal existence. Yet one element in stabilizing his life would be an understanding of and easy access to the means to develop a family related in size to his community environment and to the income potential he can command.

The Negro constitutes half the poor of the nation. Like all poor, Negro and white, they have many unwanted children. This is a cruel evil they urgently need to control. There is scarcely anything more tragic in human life than a child who is not wanted. That which should be a blessing becomes a curse for parent and child. There is nothing inherent in the Negro mentality which creates this condition. Their poverty causes it. When Negroes have been able to ascend economically, statistics reveal they plan their families with even greater care than whites. Negroes of higher economic and educational status actually have fewer children than white families in the same circumstances.

For these constructive movements we are prepared to give our energies and consistent support; because in the need for family planning, Negro and white have a common bond; and together we can and should unite our strength for the wise preservation, not of races in general, but of the one race we all constitute – the human race.

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Why economic corruption or an oil decline will lead to a financial crash, depression, and permanent energy crisis

This is the introduction to the Corruption category under the Menu item 3) Fast Crash.

The posts in this category show that another, much worse crash, is inevitable.  Meanwhile, low oil prices have led to less oil production and discoveries.  I can’t decide whether corruption or oil decline will bring on the next depression first, but even if there are energy shortages at first, the following financial crash will mask the role of the oil crisis as demand drops as employment falls, and any price is too high to pay.

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, 2015, Springer and “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”. Podcasts:  KunstlerCast 253, KunstlerCast278, Peak Prosperity , XX2 report ]

The world runs on oil, as you’ll quickly find out if you try to stuff dollar bills into your gas tank.  But money and oil are entwined, because capital and huge amounts of credit are needed to finance new oil  extraction projects.  This is an overview, but the best coverage of the intersection of money and oil is at Gail Tverberg’s Our Finite World, and the financial corruption and instability at The Automatic Earth.

A major financial crash could slow or stop investments in new oil projects, which would inevitably lead to an energy crisis.

In fact, an energy crisis appears to be on the way right now due to low oil prices.  Oil discoveries around the world in 2015 were the lowest in more than 60 years, preparing the ground for a game-changing spike in oil prices (and another depression) and raising serious questions about energy security.  The amount of oil found so far in 2016 is likely to be even less than in 2015.

Low oil prices have led to many articles proclaiming that peak oil is dead. But Hallock et al. (2014) has data showing peak oil already happened in most oil-producing nations, and has or is likely soon to happen for the entire world.   The public assumes the opposite because gasoline prices have been falling, although they are still high by historical standards, and have gone back to buying gas guzzling SUVs and light-trucks, and electric car sales have been declining.

Since the 1970s, the price of oil has gone up and down as mismatches  occurred between supply and demand. In 2015, the world had an oil glut so prices dropped. These cycles—supply and demand mismatches—most likely will continue. But they do not negate the fact that sooner or later, the amount of oil coming out of the ground will begin to decline.  Even if abiotic oil existed, which has been soundly shown not to be true by Höök (et al. 2010), this imaginary oil is not being produced fast enough. We’re using 7 times more per year than we’re finding.

Whenever oil prices become too high, the economic system falls into an “oil trap.” In fact, high oil prices have helped trigger 11 out of 12 past recessions since World War II (Hamilton 2013). Recessions drive oil prices down, slowing or stopping new oil projects, possibly for a long time, since for unemployed and low wage earners, oil at any price is barely affordable. In a recession, credit shrinks and it is hard to find the capital to drill for more oil or transition to alternatives.

The oil trap might also snap if investors generally became aware of peak oil, because this could cause a financial panic, crashing stock markets, and capital might not be available to lend to oil projects (Macalister 2009). A 2010 German military peak oil study also thought peak oil awareness was likely to lead to market collapse, and that the decline of oil would eventually cause global economic failure, because in a shrinking economy, companies could not make and distribute profits, or pay back debts. As businesses and nations went bankrupt, supply chains would break (BTC 2010).

So I expect that if the next financial system crash is caused by peak oil, few people will realize it, since that awareness would end stock markets since no one would be willing to lend anyone money, since energy is the only way to grow businesses and the economy.  You’ll never be paid back!

And there may not be much oil left to find (see How much oil is left and Matt Simmons “Twilight in the Desert” Saudi Arabia oil: how much left?).  There is a great deal of evidence conventional oil (90% of our oil) peaked in 2005 and that unconventional oil (shale, tar sands) is likely to peak soon.

Even if there is a lot of oil left, it can stop flowing due to oil shocks from chokepoints, declining exports, the flow rate dropping from the Niagra Falls it is today to a trickle, especially shale oil which on average declines 85% within a few years.

It also takes more time to get the remaining distant, nasty, gunky oil.  For example, it can take ten years to build new tar sand extraction facilities, deep offshore oil platforms, and the infrastructure to support them, such as new roads, rail lines, and pipelines to deliver raw crude to refineries.

If we ever figure out how to get arctic oil, it will be at least 30 years before the first drops reach the lower 48 states, because there is no infrastructure.

Many oil-producing countries are not investing enough in their oil fields, and lack technical expertise, which can harm oil fields and reduce the ultimate amount of oil produced (GAO 2007). Exports from oil-producing countries may decline due to increasing domestic use, or to make oil resources last longer for future generations. This would bring the onset of oil decline sooner (Hirsch 2008). China and India have increased their oil imports every year and are able to outbid other nations for exported oil. If their oil imports continue to grow as they have so far, theoretically China and India would be buying all exported oil in 2030 (Brown 2013).

References

Brown, J.J. June 10, 2013. Commentary: is it only a question of when the US once again becomes a net oil exporter? Resilience.org.

BTC. 2010. Armed forces, capabilities and technologies in the 21st century environmental dimensions of security. Peak oil. Bundeswehr transformation centre, future analysis branch.

GAO. 2007. Crude oil. Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and Decline in Oil Production. U.S. Government Accountability Office.

Hallock, J. L., Jr, et al. 2014. Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply: validation. Energy 64:130–153.
Hamilton, J.D. 2013. Historical Oil Shocks in Routledge handbook of major events of economic history. Routledge.

Hirsch, R.L., 2008. Mitigation of maximum world oil production: shortage scenarios. Energy Policy 36(2):881–889.

Höök, M., Bardi, U., Feng, L. & Pang, X.  October 2010. Development of oil formation theories and their importance for peak oil. Marine and Petroleum Geology, Vol. 27, Issue 9: 1995-2004.

Macalister, T. 2009. Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower. The Guardian.

Posted in ! About Corruption | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Are humans an invasive species?

Rob Jordan. April 5, 2016. Populations of early human settlers grew like an ‘invasive species,’ Stanford researchers find. Stanford University.

Stanford researchers studying populations of early humans in South America looked at how societies overcame the limits of their local environments. One example: Andean farmers adapted their mountainous environment for agriculture through terraced farming.

Bustling cities, sprawling suburbs and blossoming agricultural regions might seem strong evidence that people have always dominated the environment. A Stanford study of South America’s colonization shows that human populations did not always grow unchecked, but were at one time limited by local resources – just like any other species.

In fact, the study, published by the journal Nature, finds that for much of human history on the continent, human populations grew like an invasive species, which are regulated by their environment as they spread into new places. Populations grew exponentially when people first colonized South America. But then they crashed, recovered slightly and plateaued for thousands of years after over-consuming local natural resources and reaching continental carrying capacity, according to the analysis.

“The question is: Have we overshot Earth’s carrying capacity today?” said senior author Elizabeth Hadly, the Paul S. and Billie Achilles Professor in Environmental Biology and a senior fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “Because humans respond as any other invasive species, the implication is that we are headed for a crash before we stabilize our global population size.”

The paper, titled “Post-Invasion Demography of Prehistoric Humans in South America,” is the first in a series on the interaction of local animal populations, humans and climate during the massive changes of the last 25,000 years in South America.

The study lays a foundation for understanding how humans contributed to the Pleistocene era’s largest extinction of big mammals, such as ground sloths, horses and elephant-like creatures called gomphotheres. It reconstructs the history of human population growth in South America using a newly assembled database of radiocarbon dates from more than 1,100 archaeological sites. Unlike many archaeological studies that look at environmental change in one particular site, the Stanford research’s continental approach provides a picture of long-term change, such as climatic fluctuations, fundamental to human populations rather than a single culture or ecosystem.

The researchers found strong evidence for two distinct phases of demographic growth in South America. The first phase, characterized by logistic growth, occurred between 14,000 and 5,500 years ago and began with a rapid spread of people and explosive population size throughout the continent.

Then, consistent with other invasive species, humans appear to have undergone an early population decline consistent with over-exploitation of their resources. This coincided with the last pulses of an extinction of big animals. Subsequent to the loss of these big animals, humans experienced a long period of constant population size across the continent. The second phase, from about 5,500 to 2,000 years ago, saw exponential population growth. This pattern is distinct from those seen in North America, Europe and Australia.

The seemingly obvious explanation for the second phase – initial domestication of animals and crops – had minimal impact on this shift, the researchers wrote. Instead, the rise of sedentary societies is the most likely reason for exponential population growth. Practices such as intensive agriculture and inter-regional trade led to sedentism, which allowed for faster and more sustained population growth. Profound environmental impacts followed.

“Thinking about the relationship between humans and our environment, unchecked growth is not a universal hallmark of our history, but a very recent development,” said co-lead author Amy Goldberg, a biology graduate student at Stanford. “In South America, it was settled societies, not just the stable food sources of agriculture, that profoundly changed how humans interact with and adapt their environment.”

Today, as the world’s population continues to grow, we turn to technology and culture to reset nature’s carrying capacity and harvest or even create new resources.

“Technological advances, whether they are made of stone or computers, have been critical in helping to shape the world around us up until this point,” said co-lead author Alexis Mychajliw a graduate student in biology. “That said, it’s unclear if we can invent a way out of planetary carrying capacities.”

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, BioInvasion, Peak Food | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The phony in American politics: how voters turn into suckers

[ This article skewers many politicians, but my favorite part is what I’ve excerpted below, about one of the first political candidates in the 1930s who ran as a Christian to snag those voters for the big money interests, Texas’s richest oilmen and bankers. He delivered virtually nothing to his working class followers, who continued to vote him in even when it was clear he owed his allegiance to corporations.

British Ben Fountain concludes that “In the arsenal of the phony, the politics of God is one of the deadliest punches to the sweet spot of the American mind. Citizens capable of the most acute analysis in other areas of their lives – regarding finance, say, or electronics, or the infinitely complex variables of fantasy sports leagues – are reduced to blithering dupes when exposed to the Christian pitch.”

The last section is about 1950s Senator Joe McCarthy who “was disliked by his fellow senators, who found him quick-tempered, insolent, and crude; the Senate press corps voted him “worst senator” one year.”  A photo of Ted Cruz follows this statement, who has been called loathsome among other things by former roommates and colleagues…

Alice Friedemann   www.energyskeptic.com  author of “When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation, 2015, Springer]

Ben Fountain. February 14, 2016. The phony in American politics: how voters turn into suckers. The Guardian.

History tells us that the skeptical American people are easily conned when confronted with the promises of politicians. In 2016, the hairstyles may have changed but the schtick remains the same

“To strike the broad pure vein of American credulity one need dig only a bit to turn up such gems as Wilbert Lee “Pappy” O’Daniel, of Fort Worth, Texas, a Depression-era salesman for the Burrus Mill and Elevator Company. In the early 30s, O’Daniel began hosting a radio show featuring the soon-to-be famous Bob Wills and the Light Crust Doughboys, though O’Daniel’s soothing, fatherly voice and easily digestible patter quickly became the real draw of the show. At 12.30 each weekday the broadcast opened with a country matron’s request to “please pass the biscuits, Pappy”. For the next 15 minutes, listeners – many of them housewives taking a midday break – were treated to twangy renditions of gospel and hillbilly tunes, interspersed with Pappy reading scripture, ad copy for Light Crust Flour, sentimental poems, and tributes to motherhood, Texas heroes, and good Christian living. His popularity grew to the point that he left Burrus Mill and started his own company, Hillbilly Flour, and began blasting his show over the 100,000 watts of XEPN, a pirate radio station across the border in Mexico.

Flour sales boomed, and Pappy himself was a star, the biggest mass-media celebrity in the south-west and a man with his eye on the next big thing. On the regular Hillbilly Flour program of 1 May 1938, he announced that as the result of a letter-writing campaign from thousands of listeners, he would bow to popular demand and run for governor. His platform consisted of the Ten Commandments, tax reform and a guaranteed pension of $30 a month to every Texan over the age of 65. His campaign theme was Pass the Biscuits, Pappy, his motto the Golden Rule. He avowed that his business experience would enable him to manage state government in a businesslike manner, and with his wife, three kids, and the Hillbilly Band (Wills had left years ago, disgusted with Pappy’s skinflint ways), the radio star began a barnstorming tour across Texas.

The effect was electric. O’Daniel had what would later be known as “name recognition”; everyone had heard, or at least heard of, Pappy. Crowds of 20,000 or more turned out for his rallies, and more than once mobs of fans forced his caravan to an unscheduled stop so they could hear the “common citizen’s candidate” rail on professional politicians, recite scripture, and plug Hillbilly Flour. An evangelical fervor was present from the start, fanned by the candidate’s Christian oratory and old-timey gospel music. The prominent Baptist minister J Frank Norris compared Pappy to Moses, predicting he would lead the country back to its Christian roots. As one historian wrote:

The O’Daniel rallies appealed to the same deep human instinct and provided the same emotional outlets which the camp meeting formerly offered. Here again was the chance to enjoy the thrill and glory of a martial movement without risking any physical bloodshed. Christ was still the hero and Satan still the enemy, but … Christ’s good, which had previously radiated from the camp-meeting preacher, was now represented by the flour-salesman. Satan’s evil, previously attached to that abhorred aristocracy which had been the pioneer’s European superior, was now found to reside in the professional politician.

When attacked by establishment candidates, O’Daniel responded with scripture: “Blessed are ye when men shall revile you and shall say all manner of evil falsely against you for My sake.” He countered objections to his Yankee origins (he was born in Ohio, reared in Kansas) with a touching story about his name: one of his uncles, a Union soldier in the civil war, had been mortally wounded, but was nursed so tenderly on his deathbed by a southern family that he sent word to his sister saying if she should ever have a son, he should be named after the great Confederate general Robert E Lee. In answer to charges of being secretly backed by big business, he replied: “How can you say I’m against the working man when I buried my daddy in overalls?”

If you’re looking for the phony in American politics, you could do worse than follow the money. In fact O’Daniel was being backed by a cabal of Texas’s richest oilmen and bankers, ultraconservatives all, and his campaign was directed by a sharp PR man out of Dallas. O’Daniel himself had grown wealthy in business and real estate, which didn’t keep him from sending his pretty daughter out at rallies with a small barrel labeled “Flour Not Pork”, appealing for desperately needed campaign funds. Sales of Hillbilly Flour doubled over the course of the campaign, and O’Daniel swept the election with more than twice the number of votes of his nearest competitor. Once in office, he began broadcasting directly from the Governor’s Mansion, pledging: “This administration is going to be me, God, and the people, thanks to the radio.”

Listening to O’Daniel’s broadcasts today is to be treated to the rankest sort of huckster charm, along with a primer in the shamelessly pandering arts of political suasion. Christian homilies, dogtrot poetry, and treacly moralizing are delivered in a smooth, slightly formal country voice that goes down like lemonade with all the tang sugared out of it. Did he believe his own schtick? He was, one longtime acquaintance said, “a born actor. He may not believe it, but he feels it at the time.” Once, his eyes tearing up as the band played The Old Rugged Cross, Pappy leaned over to a visitor and whispered: “That’s what brings ’em in, boy. That’s what really brings ’em in!” In person he was aloof and awkward, reluctant to engage the legislators with whom he had to work, even avoiding constituents who journeyed to Austin to meet their hero and tell him their troubles. But with a microphone to his lips, O’Daniel, as they say in showbiz, killed. “Son,” one longtime listener explained to her bewildered offspring, “I’ve been having breakfast with Lee O’Daniel on the radio … for the past eight years, and I know he’s a good man.”

A man who delivered pretty much zilch to the working people who adored him. In the span of four years he won four statewide elections for high office, including a 1941 special election for the US Senate in which he beat a young congressman named Lyndon Johnson. Even as his allegiance to big business and special interests became increasingly clear, Pappy’s rural and blue-collar base kept the faith. “Just because he’s a Christian man.” “Because he’s honest, mister, and because he ain’t no politician.” “He’s almost a preacher. He knows how to catch up with them congressmen and tell us about them.”

In the arsenal of the phony, the politics of God is one of the deadliest punches to the sweet spot of the American mind. Citizens capable of the most acute analysis in other areas of their lives – regarding finance, say, or electronics, or the infinitely complex variables of fantasy sports leagues – are reduced to blithering dupes when exposed to the Christian pitch. Something spooky happens to that excellent American mind that brought us moon landings and the silicon chip and the wonderful stuff that saves our kids from polio. No matter if the candidate has had three or four wives or fired thousands of workers or dropped biblical plagues of bombs on rice farmers and sheep herders, merely saying the magic words makes it so. Christian values. Strong for Jesus. In God we trust, and all the rest. Incantations that render large chunks of the electorate as dazed and vulnerable as pre-contact tribesmen from the deepest Amazon hearing a transistor radio for the first time.

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