Peak Rubber

Rubber trees can’t be grown anywhere. They require 100 inches (250 cm) of rain year round. Dry seasons not allowed. The average monthly temperature should be 77 to 82 Fahrenheit (25-28 C), with 6 hours a day of bright sunshine, at least 2000 hours a year, and no strong winds allowed. In ideal conditions, two tons of rubber can be produced per hectare a year.

Yet growing rubber harms biodiversity, deforestation, pollution and more.  Especially in the tropical regions of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India & China where most rubber is grown on over 12 million hectares since too many pests destroy them in their native South America. But now these diseases are spreading to Asia. In addition, natural rubber supplies are tight due to covid-19, natural disasters, and supply chain delays.  Nor can rubber trees be scaled up quickly, it takes seven years for a rubber tree to mature.

Over 75% of this rubber is used for 40,000 products that require its unique properties of high flexibility, durability, and water resistance. There is no substitute.  Above all, vehicle tires need to be mostly natural rubber — that’s how two-thirds of rubber is used — as well as being essential for many industrial products and in construction, electronics, cables, shoes, medical devices and more.

Many have tried to use other plants. A century ago Henry Ford tried with dandelions, goldenrod, and sunflowers. The most promising plant today is a a dandelion from Kazakhstan with roots of 10-15% natural rubber, but it is years from becoming commercially viable if it can be.  They are slow to establish and mature, and easily overtaken by weeds.  They have to be genetically engineered to be unable to cross pollinate with other plants, withstand weeds and toxic pesticides, and have a stronger disease resistance.

The upside of peak rubber is peak peace. Military aircraft, tanks and other weapons must have natural rubber tires and other components.  With Russia tempted to use nuclear weapons to destroy Ukraine launching WW III and the extinction of much of life on earth, declining natural rubber doesn’t sound like such a bad thing.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Understanding peak oil theory 2005 U.S. House

Preface. With world oil production likely having peaked in 2018 (as documented in chapter 2 of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy), this seemed like a good time to go revisit peak oil history.

What follows is from the 95 page transcript of this 2005 hearing — the only hearing explicitly about peak oil, though both the Department of Energy and Government Accounting Office wrote peak oil risk management plans for Congress. It’s also the only hearing where most of the speakers explaining peak oil, including Representative Roscoe Bartlett, were scientists. From now on EIA bureaucrats, think-tank experts and CEO’s of large companies — not scientists — promise peak oil production is decades away and that the U.S. has 100 years or more of energy independence. Though of course Congress knows we’re in deep trouble — see the March 7, 2006 “Energy Independence” Senate hearing and other congressional hearings in the energy dependence section here.

Some of the hearing is from the various members saying not to worry such as the following:

Mr Green of Texas: However, after several decades of predictions, many of the so-called peaks have come and gone and global oil exploration has in fact increased, not decreased, due to a variety of factors.  Conventional oil technology has also improved in the last 25 years so we are able to reach deep water oil previously uneconomic.  So I hope believers in Peak Oil will forgive some of us from thinking that they sound like a little boy that cried wolf.  Furthermore, it is comforting to know that energy information agencies predict peak oil around 2050, which is not exactly right around the corner, with fuel cell prototype cars in production it looks like we have time to adapt to the new energy economy.  Also with prices staying high or rising, this effect will further accelerate the development of alternative energy technologies.

Mr SHIMKUS of Illinois. In July, as everyone knows, we passed the Energy Policy Act and part of that was addressing the concern of our alliance in foreign oil. We have done this numerous times. Of course everyone knows my focus on renewable fuels.  With the ethanol and soy diesel debate and expansion is quite phenomenal. Microsoft’s cofounder Bill Gates seems to want a piece of the action when it comes to renewable energy.  The billionaire’s investment company, Cascade Investment, has agreed to invest $84 million in Pacific ethanol which will help it finance construction of several planned fuel additive plants on the West Coast.

The country has 250 years of BTU ability based upon our coal resources.  I know Roscoe is very knowledgeable of Fisher Tropes technology and the ability to turn coal into fuels.  And at the supply and demand issue, Economics 101 when we have limited supply, higher demand, prices go up, coal or liquid technology probably turns profitable around $35 per barrel which is where we are at.  And so what do we see?  We see Soso, a South African Company that has this technology looking at locations within the United States to do this BTU conversion.  And that is the way the market should work and that is what the market does.

Illinois, used to be a huge oil producing part of the Nation.  Now it is still halfway decent.  We have the largest operating well. It produces a million barrels a year and it drills underneath a State wildlife refuge with new technology.  New technologies are going to help address some of the immediacy but there are reserves based upon the cost of a barrel that we now can get active.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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House 109-41. December 7, 2005. Understanding the Peak Oil theory. U.S. House of Representatives.

RALPH M. HALL, TEXAS. We are having this hearing today to learn more about peak oil theory, to hear different opinions, and to learn what we can do about it, if anything. While some theorists believe that we have reached our peak, the point at which the rate of world oil production cannot increase at any time, there are others that tell us that we are not going to peak any time soon, and others who still believe oil is continuously being created and will therefore never peak. We have not been ignoring a possible peak in oil production and this energy bill that was signed into law in August had provisions that address oil usage by promoting conservation and conventional and unconventional production. Whether or not we are reaching our peak, it seems responsible to continue in the vain we are going in by continuing to work on ways to conserve energy while increasing our domestic supply of oil and using research to develop substitutes for conventional oil.

JOE BARTON, CHAIRMAN, Committee on Energy & Commerce. I asked Chairman Hall to hold this hearing on the “peak oil” theory at Congressman Bartlett’s request. Congressman Bartlett is an active and persuasive advocate for peak oil theorists and I look forward to hearing his views and perspectives on peak oil.

TOM UDALL, NEW MEXICO. Mr. Bartlett and I started the House Peak Oil Caucus to bring immediate and serious attention to this issue. The continued prosperity of the United States depends on the Nation taking immediate and intelligent action concerning Peak Oil.

I have had a chance to review the testimony of my colleague, Mr. Bartlett, and also that of Mr. Aleklett and I agree with their analysis that the peak in oil production will occur in the next two decades and potentially as early as 2010. The central theme here is there is not much time to act.

Our economy and way of life is dependent on cheap oil. In many ways, cheap oil is responsible for our prosperity. Since oil provides about 40% of the world’s energy, a peak and global oil production will be a turning point in human history. Oil and natural gas literally transport heat and feed our country.

Therefore, we must act immediately to diversify our energy supplies to mitigate the economic recession and social and political unrest that will undoubtedly accompany the peak in oil and natural gas production if we do not act.

The United States’ demand for oil continues to increase by about 2% a year, and global demand has increased faster than production. The once substantial cushion between world oil production and demand has decreased. This phenomenon has increased the price of oil and consequently huge amounts of American money up to $25 million per hour goes abroad to pay for foreign oil. And as many people are now  aware, some of this money goes to governments and groups who are considered a threat to our national security. Middle Eastern Countries flush with oil dollars help fuel the terrorism we are fighting.

Some say that market forces will take care of the Peak Oil problem. They argue that as we approach or pass the peak of production the price of oil will increase and the alternatives will become more competitive.

But no available alternative is anywhere near ready to replace oil in the volumes we use it today.

The main problem with the market force argument is that current U.S. oil prices do not accurately reflect the full social costs of oil consumption. Currently in the United States, Federal and State taxes add up to about 40 cents per gallon of gasoline. A world resources institute analysis found that fuel related costs not covered by drivers are at least twice that much. The current price of oil does not include the full cost of road maintenance, health, and environmental costs attributed to air pollution, the financial risk of global warning, or the threats to national security.

Over the past 100 years, fueled by cheap oil, the United States has led the revolution in the way the world operates.

Replacing this resource in a relatively short time is not only an incredible challenge, but also imperative to the survival of our way of life.

We must produce effective policies that create a new generation of scientists devoted to changing the way we produce energy. We must also commit to decreasing our demand for oil. We can start by increasing efficiency. The United States consumes 25% of the world’s oil. Of that 25%, two-thirds is used for transportation. Hence, transportation in the U.S. accounts for 16.5% of the world’s oil consumption.

It is obvious that more efficient transportation is one of the keys in reducing our demand for oil. Transporting goods and people by rail is at least five times as efficient as automobiles. Therefore, we must revive and reinvest in our passenger and freight rail system. A modest increase in fuel efficiency of our automobile fleet from 25 miles per gallon to 33 miles per gallon using existing technology would decrease our demand for oil by 2.6 million barrels a day or about 1 billion barrels a year. However, the turnover rate for the automobile fleet is 10 to 15 years, therefore, we must start immediately.

Simple, everyday things like automobile maintenance also increase efficiency. According to the Department of Energy, proper inflation of car tires can increase fuel efficiency by 3%, translating to the equivalent of 100 million barrels of oil per year. The buildings in which we work and live are terribly inefficient. We could easily reduce their energy consumption by one half. We must immediately weatherize and make more energy efficient tens of millions of buildings. Our bold new initiative must instill these ideas in the American consciousness.

The sooner we start the smaller our sacrifices will be. These tasks will not be easy but I am confident that we will achieve our goal for we have little in the way of alternatives.

The theory of Peak Oil states that, like any finite resource, oil will reach a peak in production after which supply will steadily and sharply decrease.

In 1956, Shell Oil geologist M. King Hubbert predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak in about 1970 and be followed by a sharp decline. At the time, many dismissed his predictions as false, but history shows they were remarkably accurate.

A growing number of geologists, economists and politicians now agree that the peak in the world’s oil production is imminent; predicted to occur within one or two decades. Some disagree with this prediction, calling it a doomsday scenario and say that technological advances will buy us more time before we reach peak production. Theirs, however, is not the consensus view and even they agree that a peak in the world’s oil production is inevitable

The strongest evidence that the peak in world oil production is imminent is that for the last 30 years, production of oil has exceeded discovery of new oil resources.

The reason for this is relatively simple. Oil is a limited commodity and the large oil fields with easily extractable resources were naturally the first ones to be exploited.

These fields were found thirty or forty years ago in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and the United Arab Emirates) and are still the main suppliers of the world’s oil. As the finite supply of oil in these deposits diminishes, exploration for new supplies continues. However, new discoveries tend to be small and rapidly exhausted, making them less economically viable.

Meanwhile, global demand for oil, which is at an all-time high, continues to rise. The United States demand continues to increase by about 2% per annum. Also, with the globalization of the market economy and increases in oil-driven industrial production in Asia, new consumers are contributing to rising demand. To meet rising demand oil companies must increase production, accelerating us towards the peak.

The United States only possesses 2% of the world’s oil reserves and only produces 8% of the world’s oil capacity. Therefore, we are not in a position to control the world’s oil production.

Oil is a very powerful resource with an incredibly high energy density. For example, the energy in just one barrel of oil (42 gallons) is equivalent to eight people working full time for a year.

Over the past 100 years, fueled by affordable oil, the United States has led a revolution in the way the world operates. For example, petroleum-based fertilizers are used to inexpensively grow remarkable amounts of food and airline transportation allows us to reach virtually anywhere in the world within 24 hours helping to create a global economy. However, the sustainability of the oil-based economy is rapidly decreasing.

Reaching a peak in oil production has the potential to destroy our economy and cause great social and political unrest.

And the carbon released using fossil fuels is contributing to dramatic changes in the earth’s climate.

Therefore, replacing this resource in a relatively short time is not only an incredible challenge but also imperative to the survival of our way of life.

ROSCOE BARTLETT, Maryland. Thirty of our leading citizens, Boyden Gray, McFarland, Jim Woolsey, and 27 others, including a lot of retired four star admirals and generals, wrote a letter to the President saying Mr. President, the fact that we have only 2% of the known reserves of oil and we used 25% of the world’s oil and import nearly two-thirds of what we use is a totally unacceptable national security risk. We need to do something about that. I would submit that if you do not believe that there is such a thing as Peak Oil, you need to understand that this really is a big national security risk. And the things that we need to do to transition to alternatives so that we are not so dependent on foreign oil are exactly the same things that we need to do to attenuate the effects of Peak Oil.

We have only 2% of the world’s oil reserves but we are producing 8% of the world’s oil which means that we are pumping our oil roughly four times faster than the rest of the world. We are really good at pumping oil. These data have made me opposed to drilling in ANWR and offshore, because if we have only 2% of the known reserves of oil, how is it in our national security interest to use up that little bit of oil we have as quickly as possible? If we could pump the offshore oil and ANWR oil tomorrow, what would we do the day after tomorrow? And there will be a day after tomorrow. I would like to husband these resources. This is very much like having money in the bank that is yielding really high interest rates. If you have money in the bank yielding really high interest rates, you probably would leave it there and that is what I think we need to do for the moment with this oil.

To put this discussion in context, we really need to go back about six decades to the mid-40s and 50s. A scientist in the Shell Oil Company M. King Hubbert was looking at oil fields, their exploitation and exhaustion. He noted that they all tended to follow a rough bell curve and he theorized that if he could add up all those little bell curves he would have one big bell curve where he could predict when we would reach our maximum production in this country. He made a prediction in 1956 that we would peak at about 1970, which was correct. We are now about halfway down what many people call Hubbert’s peak. Texas has been a big contributor to oil in our country. And notice that we did reach maximum oil production in 1970. And in spite of Prudhoe Bay, which produced a quarter of the oil that we were pumping in our country, it has been pretty much downhill since Prudhoe Bay peaked.

I remember the fabled Gulf of Mexico oil discovery that was supposed to solve our oil problem for the foreseeable future. But it didn’t. The observation was made that we are not running out of oil, and that is true. There is still a lot of oil there. As a matter of fact, worldwide there is probably about half the oil there yet to be recovered than we have recovered so far.

The same M. King Hubbert that predicted that we would peak in 1970 and he was correct there, predicted that the world would peak would be about now If M. King Hubbert was right about our country, why shouldn’t he be right about the world? And we have known for at least 25 years that M. King Hubbert was right about our country. By 1980, when President Reagan came to office, we were already 10 years down the other side of Hubbert’s peak and we knew very well that we were sliding down Hubbert’s peak. The response was to drill more wells, but we really did not find any more oil. You cannot find what is not there. You cannot pump what you have not found.

Most of the discoveries of oil occurred 30 or 40 years ago. For the last two and a half decades there has been an ever decreasing discovery of oil. Since the early 1980’s, we have been using more oil than we have found. It is obvious you cannot pump more oil than you have found.

If we have enhanced oil recovery we can recover it more quickly. But all that does is cause us to reach a higher peak a little later, and change the shape of the down slope to fall off more steeply.

Mr. Green mentioned crying wolf, and yes, we have cried wolf several times in the past. But in the parable the wolf did come. I think he ate all the sheep and the people. So one day the wolf will come and that is what we are trying to do is to avoid the kind of catastrophe that they had in the parable.

Energy Return on Invested (EROI)

When we are looking at replacing the fossil fuels we have been using, you have to look at energy profit ratio. We are now producing oil from the oil shales in Canada at about $30 a barrel, maybe less than that when it is selling at $60. That is really a good dollar profit ratio. But I understand that they are now using more energy from natural gas than they get out of the oil they produce. So the energy profit ratio is negative. That is a good thing for them because they got a lot of gas, it is cheap, it is hard to transport to other places and oil is in high demand and they can sell it for twice the production cost so that makes a lot of sense. But at the end of the day with the limited energy resources in the world, we really should not be producing energy with a negative energy profit ratio.

Exponential Growth

Two hundred and fifty years of coal, I wish we would stop saying that unless we qualified it by saying at present use rates, because as soon as you increase use just 2% a year, it shrinks to 85 years. If you use energy to convert it to a gas or a liquid, you have now shrunk it to 50 years.

Yeah coal is there, it is a finite resource. We really need to husband it, because it is not 250 years worth.

Albert Einstein said that that exponential growth was the most powerful force in the universe, the power of compound interest. If you have not heard Dr. Albert Bartlett’s Hour Lecture on Energy, pull it up and read it. It is the most interesting one hour lecture I have ever heard. One of his examples is an ancient kingdom where the king was so pleased with a subject he promised to give him anything reasonable he asked. His subject asked for a grain of rice on the first square of a chessboard, twon on the second, and to double the grains on each subsequent square. And the king thought stupid fellow, I would have given him something really meaningful and all he asked for is a little bit of rice on a chessboard. The number of grains on the 64th squares would be 18,446,744,073,709,551,615 and weigh 461,168,602,000 metric tons, a mountain of rice higher than Mount Everest, and over one thousand times the global production of rice in 2010. That is the power of exponential growth.

I would also like to note that the population curve of the world roughly follows the production curve for oil. We started out with about a billion people and now we have about 7 billion people almost literally eating oil and gas because of the enormous amounts of energy that go into producing food. Almost half the energy that goes into producing a bushel of corn comes from the natural gas that we use to produce the nitrogen fertilizer.

Just a comment or two about energy density and how difficult it is going to be to replace oil. And by the way, we are about 100 years into the age of oil. In another 100 years or so, we will be through the age of oil. In 5,000 years of recorded history, 200 or 300 years is just a blip, just a tick in the history of man. We found this incredible wealth under the ground. And rationally what we should have done as a civilization is to ask ourselves what will we do with this incredible wealth to do the most good for the most people over time. Each barrel represents about 50,000 man hours of effort, the equivalent of having 12 people work all year for you. And today at the pump with gas prices about $2, it costs you, 42 gallons costs you less than $100. That is incredible.

If you have some trouble getting your arms around that, imagine how far that gallon of gas or diesel takes your car or truck and how long it would take you to push it the same distance to get some idea of the energy density. And how long would it take you to get it there? If you go work really hard in your yard all day, I will get more work out of an electric motor with less than 25 cents worth of electricity. That gives us you some idea as to the incredible energy density in these fossil fuels. What wealth it was we found under the ground. And almost like children who found the cookie jar, we had no restraint. We tried to use it up as quickly as we could use it up. And there will be an age of oil. One day there will be no more economically feasible recovery of oil, gas, and coal.

The cheapest oil that we use that we buy is the oil that we do not use. And so if we are going to have any energy to invest in alternatives it will take three things. Money we will not worry about that. We will just borrow money from our kids and our grand kids. But you cannot borrow time and you cannot borrow energy from our kids and our grand kids. And we are going to have to make big investments of both time and energy to get these alternatives. In order to have energy to invest, we are going to have to have enormous conservation efforts now so that we free up some of the oil because if in fact we are reaching peak oil, when we have reached peak oil, all the oil that is produced is needed by the world’s economies, none will be available to invest in the alternatives.

So I would suggest that maybe the goal would be to find a way to have high quality of life without increasing energy use.

We are very much like the young couple whose grandparents have died and left them a big inheritance and they now established a lifestyle where 85% of the money they spend comes from their grandparent’s inheritance and only 15% from their income. But they look at their grandparent’s inheritance and the amount they are spending and it is going to be gone before they retire. So they are going to clearly have to do one of two things. Either spend less money or make more money. Similarly, 85% of the energy we use today comes from fossil fuels. And only 15% of the energy comes from the alternatives.

By and by, all of the energy will need to come from the alternatives. Of the 15% that is not fossil fuels, a bit more than half of that comes from nuclear. This could and should grow probably. But that will not be the water reactors we have because fissionable uranium is of finite supply in the world. We will have to move to breeder reactors and the problems that come with that.

I think planning to solve our energy future with fusion is a bit like planning to solve our personal economic problems by winning the lottery.

Of the other 7% renewable energy almost half of that is conventional hydro. We have maxed out hydropower in our country. We have dammed up all the rivers that could be dammed and maybe a few that we should not have dammed.

The next biggest source of alternative energy is wood. Not the West Virginia hillbilly, it is the timber industry and the paper industry burning what would otherwise be a waste product. And then the next biggest one is waste.

And now we are down to the things that we will transition to in the future, solar. We have been growing at 30% a year. That doubles in 2.5 years. It was .07% in 2000 and now it is .28%, big deal. That is a long way from any meaningful contribution. The same thing is true of wind.

Just a word of caution about energy from agriculture, the world has to eat. If we will eat the corn and the soybeans that the pig and the chicken and steer would have eaten, maybe we can get more energy from agriculture. And be careful, Mr. Chairman, about taking biomass to produce energy because we are barely able today to maintain the quality of our topsoils without returning much of that biomass to create humus in the soil.

Geothermal we need to exploit as much as we can.

We need the kind of commitment we had in World War II. No new cars were made for three years. They rationed gasoline. They rationed tires. They rationed sugar. You brought the grease from your kitchen to a central depository. I think we need a program that’s a combination of putting a man on the moon, with the urgency of the Manhattan Project and the involvement of every one of our citizens to avoid a bumpy ride.

Perhaps Matt Savinar is more pessimistic than he needs to be, but he is not an idiot. He says, dear reader, civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. I hope not, Mr. Chairman.

At the start of the age of oil, world population was one billion; now it’s seven billion. The population of the United States is almost 300 million and increasing by nearly 30 million people every decade. Nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas. In a very real sense, oil feeds the world.

I thank the Committee for scheduling this hearing and inviting distinguished witnesses to discuss House Resolution 507 which expresses “the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the “Man on the Moon” project to address the inevitable challenges of “Peak Oil.”

Shell Oil company geologist M. King Hubbert first identified “Peak Oil” in the 1940’s and 1950’s. He discovered oil field production follows a bell curve. Oil flows slowly at first, then rapidly increases, reaches a maximum or peak when half of the oil has been extracted, and then production declines rapidly. Adding the curves from individual wells in the United States, Hubbert projected in 1956 that “Peak Oil” for the United States would occur in 1970. He was right. U.S. oil production peaked and has declined every year since 1971. Despite sharp increases in prices and better technology, US domestic oil production has declined every year since then.

Just as Hubbert was right about the United States, peak oil has occurred in other countries and global peak oil will happen. Oil production is declining in 33 of the world’s 48 largest oil-producing countries.

U.S. natural gas production has also peaked. The United States is now the world’s largest importer of both oil and natural gas. From importing one third of the oil we used before the Arab Oil Embargo, the U.S. now imports about two thirds of the oil we use. After U.S. oil production peaked in 1970, our country started and we are continuing to accelerate down a path of growing energy insecurity.

The United States used to be the world’s largest oil producer. After the U.S. peaked in 1970, Saudi Arabia became the world’s largest single oil producer and the leader of OPEC nations which became the world’s dominant oil suppliers.

Global “Peak Oil” has not yet occurred, but will.

I met with the President at the White House on June 29, 2005 and was impressed by his understanding of the need for our government to act now to prepare for global “Peak Oil”.

On October 5, 2005, Department of Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman requested the National Petroleum Council to study “Peak Oil” and the oil and natural gas industry’s ability to produce enough oil and natural gas at prices that would not cripple the American economy. Our country’s leadership is slowly becoming aware of “Peak Oil”.

However, it is my hope because of hearings like this and the testimonies given by some of our most prominent figures, our country’s leadership will start to see the urgency in addressing this issue, and make it the centerpiece of their agenda.

For example, in testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on November 16, former CIA Director James Woolsey discussed “seven reasons why dependence on petroleum and its products for the lion’s share of the world’s transportation fuel creates special dangers in our time.” 1. Transportation infrastructure is dependent upon oil 2. The Middle East will continue to be the low-cost and dominant petroleum producer. 3. Petroleum infrastructure is highly vulnerable to terrorist and other attacks. 4. The possibility is increasing of embargoes or supply disruptions under regimes that could come to power in the Greater Middle East. 5. Oil revenue transfers fund terrorism. 6. Current account deficits for a number of countries create risks ranging from major world economic disruption to deepening poverty that could be reduced by reducing oil imports. 7. Oil used for transportation produce greenhouse gases that increase the risk of climate change. The planes, ships and trucks of our military run on oil.

Tight supplies and high oil prices threaten our national security and the Department of Defense is responding. For instance, in an October 11, 2005 memo on “Assured Fuels,” Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Research, Development and Acquisition John J. Young, Jr., endorsed a recommendation by the Naval Research Advisory Committee in its “2005 Summer Study of Future Fuels” to set the goal of the Navy to become independent from reliance on foreign oil by 2020. Secretary Young explained, “In light of the current painful reality of DoD fuel price adjustments, and the risks to our fuel sources posed by natural disasters and terrorist threats, I believe we need to act on this recommendation with a sense of urgency.”

For many years, Saudi Arabia maintained enough production flexibility to leverage oil prices at around $20 per barrel. In recent years, the cushion between world supply and demand whittled away. Three years ago in November 2002, the prompt price for immediate delivery of oil was $27 per barrel NYMEX WTI (New York Mercantile Exchange – West Texas Intermediate). The price for contracts on 10-year long term derivatives combining NYMEX and forward swaps market transactions was between $22 and $24 per barrel. Beginning in December 2003, the price for 10-year contracts began a sharp upward trend that has not abated. The change was prompted by an increase in long term contract purchases by the Chinese and the judgment by market participants that Saudi Arabia could no longer maintain sufficient extra capacity to drive the price of oil down. In November 2005, the prompt price for immediate delivery of oil was $60 per barrel after a spike to $71 per barrel after Hurricane Katrina. The price for 10-year contracts was $59 per barrel. In the past three years, the prompt price increased two times from $27 per barrel to $60 per barrel. The 10-year price increased almost three times from $22 per barrel to $59 per barrel. The world’s largest banks are the primary transactors in the private forward swaps markets on behalf of clients who are among the world’s largest and best financed institutions and companies. Those price increases in oil, the emergence of a well-defined forward swaps market in oil and the larger magnitude increase between the prompt and 10-year price represent a dramatic change in world oil markets.

A December 1, 2005 CRS report (prepared at my request) documents and ranks countries that experienced declines in oil production between 2003 and 2004. Despite the increase in oil prices, United Kingdom oil production declined 228 thousand barrels. United States oil production declined 159 thousand barrels. Australia declined 83 thousand barrels. Norway declined 76 thousand barrels. Indonesia declined 57 thousand barrels. Argentina declined 50 thousand barrels. Other countries with production declines included: Egypt, Oman, Syria, Yemen Brazil, Columbia and Italy. At the same time, demand for oil is increasing. China and India are increasing their oil consumption. China increased consumption 51.3% and is the world’s second largest importer of oil, behind the United States. Developing countries around the world are increasing their demand for oil consumption at rapid rates. For example, the average consumption increase, by percentage, from 2003 to 2004 for the countries of Belarus, Kuwait, China, and Singapore was 15.9%;

In order to keep energy costs affordable, improve the environment, safeguard economic prosperity, and reduce the trade deficit, the United States must move rapidly to increase the productivity with which it uses fossil fuels, and to accelerate the transition to renewable fuels and a sustainable, clean energy economy.

There is no one silver bullet to solve this problem. Only through a combination of conservation, improved efficiency, and a combination of alternate sources of energy for transportation and ultimately renewable sources of energy (i.e. wind, solar, geothermal, harnessing ocean tides) will we be able to meet the energy demands of the future.

How and when we as individuals and government leaders will respond to global “Peak Oil” is what we need to address immediately. I believe global “Peak Oil” presents our country with a challenge as daunting as the one that faced the astronauts and staff of the Apollo 13 program. Contingency planning, training, incredible ingenuity, and collaboration to solve the problem brought the Apollo 13 astronauts back home safe. The U.S. government must lead and inspire Americans’ unmatched ingenuity and creativity to end our unacceptable and unsustainable energy vulnerability and to prevent a worldwide economic tsunami from global “Peak Oil”.

We in the Congress must work with and on behalf of our constituents to debate, develop and start implementing appropriate policy changes and legislation to make Americans more secure, as we did in the 1940’s with the Manhattan Project. The federal government took an active role in funding a crash program, in partnership with the United Kingdom and Canada, to develop the first nuclear weapon in order to defeat Nazi Germany. Now, we again must adopt a crash program, this time in cooperation with our international allies. We must overcome the obstacles we can foresee and those that will emerge. “Peak Oil” will inflict unprecedented pressure upon our citizens and strain the capability of our social, economic, and political institutions. We must survive the challenges of “Peak Oil” only with the tools we have available. We have no choice.

The Hydrogen Economy

Hydrogen, of course, is not a source of energy. We will always use more energy producing hydrogen than we get out of it because we are not going to suspend the first and second laws of thermodynamics.

To understand what hydrogen will do for us, please think of it as a battery. It is just a way of carrying energy from one place to another. Hydrogen is not a solution to our energy problem, it is simply a way–for instance, using energy from coal, you cannot put a trunk full of coal in your car and go down the road. But you can use coal to produce electricity. The electricity can split water into hydrogen and oxygen. You can then use the hydrogen in a fuel cell to take your car down the road. So you can run, you can use coal to take your car down the road.

I would remind you that even some things God cannot do. God cannot make a square circle. There are not infinite resources here. And so you have to qualify what the marketplace can do in terms of that. But as you will hear in later testimony from SAIC, none of the alternatives have the potential for being ramped up quickly enough to make up the slack [of declining oil production]. That is the reality. We should have started 20 years ago if we wanted to make sure we were not going to have any dislocations.

 

KJELL ALEKLETT, PH.D., PROFESSOR, Department of Radiation Sciences, Uppsala University.

By choosing the wording Peak Oil Theory, some persons might think that this is just a theory and it is not reality. I must say sorry, ladies and gentlemen, Peak Oil is reality.

As a summary of m y written testimony, I would like to highlight the following points.

  1. Peak Oil will come because oil is a limited resource.
  2. Fifty years ago the world was consuming 4 billion barrels of oil per year and the average discovery rate (the rate of finding undiscovered oil fields) was around 30 billion barrels per year. Today we consume 30 billion barrels per year and the discovery rate is dropping toward 4 billion barrels per year. This is significant; Chevron is even running an ad saying, “The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered.” By discovery, I mean only new oil fields. Some analysts include reserve growth—newly accessible oil in old fields—as new discoveries, but we are using the same approach as in World Energy Outlook 2004, IEA, International Energy Agency.
  3. We can only empty the reserves that we have at a limited speed. Depending on demand, Peak Oil will happen within the near future.
  4. Another problem is that most countries are planning to increase their import of oil. Very few countries are planning to decrease their import of oil.
  5. Studies of the correlation between oil consumption and the growth of GDP in individual countries such as Sweden or China, as well as for the world, shows that since the Second World War, there has never been an increase in GDP without an increase in the use of oil
  6. The enormous resources of oil sands in Canada are often mentioned as a lifesaver for the world. Our group in Uppsala has made studies that show that even a crash program for production of oil from Canadian oil sands will yield only a limited amount of oil. By 2018, it might be possible to produce 3.5 million barrels per day. If that should rise to 6 million in 2040, they need to open up a couple of nuclear power plants to get heat to get the oil out of the ground.
  7. Excluding deep water oilfields, output from 54 of the 65 largest oil-producing countries in the world are in decline
  8. If we extend the decline in existing fields through 2030, and accept the 2004 Energy Information Administration estimate that global demand will be 122 mbpd, then we need 10 new Saudi Arabias. Some might call this a doomsday scenario, but if so I’m not the doomsayer, this was said by Sadad Al Husseini, until recently vice-director of Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world.
  9. There is at present an extreme dependence on supply from the Middle East holding more than 60% of the global oil reserves. A key country is Saudi Arabia, which is supposed to hold about 20% of the global reserves of conventional oil and much of the world’s spare capacity.

Currently, 2010 is the most likely year for Peak Oil. And the question is then more oil be produced for export. And if you look at the 20 largest countries for export, you have as number two on the list, Russia. Russia will not increase their export because they need more oil within Russia. Number three on the list is Norway, and the production in Norway is declining at 10% per year. And I could go down the list. In principle, there are only one, two, three, four countries that can increase their production for export.

The role of the Swedish Academy of Science is an independent non-Government organization with expertise in most of the sciences. The academy has a made a statement about oil that said to avoid acute, economic, social, and environmental problems worldwide, we need a global approach with the widest possible international cooperation. Activities in this direction have started and they should be strongly encouraged and intensified.

Technically advanced countries like the United States have a particular responsibility. If you or one of the members of the committee have grandchildren, they will also face Peak Oil. What you decide to do will affect the future for our grandchildren. I hope that you are not the kind of politicians we used to see that can only promise that they can do better in the future and maybe promise to take care of crisis when it happens. As Peak Oil is here in the near future, we need action now.

Now consider China, a developing country with 21% of the global population. It consumes 8% of the global oil supply, and thinks it is fair to claim 21% of daily global consumption, or 17.6 million barrels per day (mbpd). During the last five years the average annual GDP growth in China has been 8.2% and the average increase in oil consumption 8.4% per year. We can now see the same correlation between increase in GDP and use of oil in China as in Sweden 50 years ago. If China’s economy grows 8% per year over the coming five years, we can expect that it will need an increase in the consumption of oil of 3 million barrels per day by 2010.

According to Professor Pang Xiongqi at the China University of Petroleum in Beijing, China’s oil production will plateau in 2009 and then start to decline. This means that the total increase in consumption must be imported. As China is already importing 3 million barrels per day, it will have to increase imports 100% during the next five years. Where will it come from?

Since 2001, when ASPO was founded, we have tried to tell the world that there will soon be a problem supplying the world with crude oil while demand continues to rise.

Unfortunately, few have heeded our alerts, even though the signs have been so obvious that a blind hen could see them.

If we extrapolate the downward discovery slope from the last 30 years , we can estimate that about 135 billion “new” barrels of oil will be found over the next 30 years. The latest large oil field system to be found was the North Sea (in 1969), which contains about 60 billion barrels. In 1999 the North Sea field production peaked at 6 mbpd. Our extrapolation suggests that over the next 30 years we will discover new oil fields equal to twice the size of the North Sea—a very pessimistic prediction, according to our opponents. But I think the oil industry would be ecstatic to find two new North Sea-size oil provinces.

The problem we are facing is that we are using too much oil per year, 30 billion barrels per year. A 5 billion barrel east Texas oil field is only a couple of months of global oil consumption. You do not find big fields often anymore. The largest field discovered during the last 20 years is in Kazakhstan, and it is 10 billion barrels, equal to 4 months of global oil demand. Tar sands could produce 3 million barrels a day in a crash program. But there are 2 problems: Only a small part is the best part – the mined tar sands. The larges part must be obtained with in situ methods and that means you must heat it up and take it out, and for that you need a lot of energy.

The problem with the technology in Texas and the other lower 48 States hasn’t stopped production decline. If you use all the technology you have in the 5 billion barrel East Texas field, the decline rate is just increasing. You are talking about 10 to 20% per in decline now. So what technology did was bring it out faster and now we see, for instance, that in the North Sea, which has had advanced technology from the beginning, the decline is now 10% per year, 10% per year! So do not hope that technology will solve the problem. It might make the problem even worse in the future.

The World Energy Outlook 2005 base-case scenario projects that by 2030 global oil demand will be 115 million barrels per day, which will require increasing production by 31 million barrels per day over the next 25 years, of which 25 mbpd is predicted to come from fields that have yet to be discovered. That is, we’ll have to find four petroleum systems of the size of the North Sea. Is this reality?

Every oilfield reaches a point of maximum production. When production falls advanced technologies can reduce but not eliminate the decline. The oil industry and the IEA accept the fact that the total production from existing oil fields is declining. ExxonMobil informed shareholders that the average production decline rate for the global oil fields are between 4 and 6% per year (The Lamp, 2003, Vol 85, #1). Current global production is 84 mbpd, so next year at this time current fields may produce a total of roughly 80 mbpd. Given the expected increase in global GDP, one year from now total oil demand will be 85.5 mbpd—so new capacity might have to make up for 1.5 mbpd plus 4 mbpd, or 5.5 mbpd. Two years from now the needed new production will be 11 mbpd and in 2010 at least 25 mbpd. Can the industry deliver this amount?

Indonesia, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), not only can’t produce enough oil to meet its production quota, it can’t even produce enough for domestic consumption. Indonesia is now an oil importing country. Within six years, five more countries will peak. Only a few countries—Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, and Bolivia—have the potential to produce more oil than before. By 2010, production from these 6 countries and from deepwater fields will have to offset the decline in 59 countries and the increased demand from the rest of the world.

Can they do it? Let’s look at Saudi Arabia, which in the early 1980s produced 9.6 million barrels per day. According to the IEA and the EIA Saudi Arabia must produce 22 mbpd by 2030. But Sadad Al Husseini claims that “the American government’s forecasts for future oil supplies are a dangerous over-estimate.” The Saudi Ghawar oil field, the largest in the world, may be in decline (see for example the book “Twilight in the dessert” by Mathew Simmons). Saudi Aramco says that production can be increased to 12.5 mbpd in 2015. They plan a new pipeline with a capacity of 2.5 mbpd, so it looks like they are willing to increase production to 12.5 mbpd, but so far there are no signs of reaching 22 mbpd.

Now consider Iraq, which in 1979 produced 3.4 mbpd. Iraq officially claims reserves of 112 billion barrels of crude oil, but ASPO (and other analysts) think that one-third of the reported reserves are fictitious “political barrels.” At a recent meeting in London, I was told (privately, by a person who is in a position to know) that Iraqi reserves available today for production total 46 billion barrels. If this is the case, it will be hard for Iraq to reach its former peak production level in a short time. And so on. It’s time to ask, can the Middle East ever again produce at the peak rates of the 1970s?

The examples of Sweden and China suggest that, if past economic development patterns are followed, doubling GDP will require doubling global oil production. Can this even be done?

The United States, the wealthiest country in the world, has 5% of the global population and uses 25% of the oil. It is time to discuss what the United States should do to cut consumption—and rapidly. In February 2005 a report for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), (Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management) argued that “world oil peaking represents a problem like none other. The political, economic, and social stakes are enormous. Prudent risk management demands urgent attention and early action.” Any serious program launched today will take 20 years to complete.

What about oil sands?

The enormous reserves of oil sands in Canada are often mentioned as a lifesaver for the world. The report to DOE in February inspired us to undertake a “Crash Program Scenario Study for the Canadian Oil Sand Industry” (B. Söderbergh, F. Robelius, and K. Aleklett, to be published). In the study we found that Canada must very soon decide if its natural gas should be exported to USA or instead used for the oil sands industry. In a short-term crash program the maximum production from oil sands will be 3.6 million barrels per day in 2018. This production cannot offset even the combined decline of just the Canadian and North Sea provinces. A long-term crash program would give 6 million barrels by 2040, but then new nuclear power plants would be needed to generate steam for the in-situ production.

The problem is that we should have started preparing for peak oil at least 10 years ago. We must act now, as otherwise the bumps and holes in the road might be devastating. I like to summarize the global situation for Peak Oil the following way: When I was born in 1945, none of the four small farms in my little Swedish village used oil for anything. Ten years later, the oil age had arrived: we had replaced coal with oil for heating, my father had bought a motorcycle, and tractors were seen in the fields. From 1945 to 1970, Sweden increased its use of energy by a factor of five, or nearly 7% per year for 25 years.

It is very likely that the world is now entering a challenging period for energy supply, due to the limited resources and production problems now facing conventional (easily accessible) oil. Nearly 40% of the world’s energy is provided by oil, and over 50% of the latter is used in the transport sector. An increasing demand for oil from emerging economies, such as China and India, is likely to further accentuate the need for new solutions

Some analysts maintain that there are inherent technical problems in the Saudi oilfields, but this is not an uncontested viewpoint. It is uncertain how much the oil production in the Middle East can be increased in the next few years and to what extent it would be in the interest of these countries to greatly increase production. It is clear that, even in these countries, conventional oil is a limited resource that they are almost totally dependent on. It is, however, also clear that the countries of the Middle East are undergoing massive internal and regional changes which may have negative consequences for the global oil supply system. Mitigation measures must be initiated in the next few years in order to secure a continued adequate supply of liquid fuels, especially for the transport sector. Over the longer term, completely new solutions are required. Therefore, increased R&D (Research and Development) in the energy sector is urgently needed.

Key points

  1. Shortage of oil. The global demand for oil is presently growing by nearly 2% per year and the current consumption is 84 million barrels per day (1 barrel=159 liters) or 30 billion barrels per year. Finding additional supplies to increase the production rate is becoming problematical, since most major oilfields are well matured. Already 54 of the 65 most important oil-producing countries have declining production and the rate of discoveries of new reserves is less than a third of the present rate of consumption.
  1. Reserves of conventional oil. In the last 10-15 years, two-thirds of the increases in reserves of conventional oil have been based on increased estimates of recovery from existing fields and only one-third on discovery of new fields. In this way, a balance has been achieved between growth in reserves and production. This can’t continue. Half of current oil production comes from giant fields and very few such fields have been found in recent years. Oil geologists have a wide range of opinions on how much conventional oil there is yet to be discovered, but new reservoirs are expected to be mainly found in the deeper water, outer margins of the continental shelves, and in the physically hostile and sensitive environments of the Arctic, where the production costs will be much higher and lead times much longer than they are today. A conservative estimate of discovered oil reserves and undiscovered recoverable oil resources is about 1200 billion barrels, according to the US Geological Survey; this includes 300 billion barrels in the world’s, as yet unexplored, sedimentary basins.
  1. Middle East’s key role. Only in the Middle East and possibly the countries of the former Soviet Union is there a potential to significantly increase production rates to compensate for decreasing rates in other countries. Saudi Arabia is a key country in this context, providing 9.5 million barrels per day (11% of the current global production rate). Their proven reserves are 130 billion barrels and their reserve base is said to include an additional 130 billion barrels. Iraq also has considerable untapped oil reserves.
  2. Unconventional oil resources. In addition to conventional oil, there are very large hydrocarbon resources, so-called unconventional oil, including gas, heavy oil and tar sands and oil shales, coal, from which liquid fuels can be produced.  At present, 1 million barrels of oil per day comes from Canadian tar sand and 0.6 million barrels from Venezuelan heavy oil. The Canadian government estimates that by 2025 the daily production rate will have increased to 3 million barrels per day. Thus, the problem with these unconventional oils is not so much price, but lead times and non-price related aspects, such as the effects on the environment and availability of water and natural gas for the production process.
  1. Immediate action on supplies. Forceful measures to improve the search for and recovery of conventional oil as well as improving the production rate of unconventional oil are required to avoid price spikes, leading to instability of the world economy in the next few decades. Improved recovery of oil in existing fields can be expected. The estimated reserves of conventional oil are, however, located primarily in unexplored sedimentary basins, in environments difficult to access. A substantial part has yet to be found! Sizable contributions from unconventional oil need time (some decades) to become really effective. It is necessary to have public funding for long term petroleum-related research, since this must not be an exclusive task for the oil companies.
  1. Liquid fuels and a new transport system. Oil supply is a severe liquid fuels problem. Major programs need, therefore, to be implemented to develop alternatives to oil in the transport sector. Until these measures have been introduced, which may take one to two decades, demand for oil for the needs of a globally expanding transport sector will continue to rise; other users of oil will suffer, including those concerned with power generation.
  1. Economic considerations. At present the high oil prices are due to the limitations of worldwide production, refining and transportation capacities. Furthermore, the price is influenced by the threat of terrorist attacks on the world’s oil supply, transport system and infrastructure.
  1. Environmental concerns. Constraints on unconventional oil similar to those imposed on other fossil fuels (for example emission controls and CO2 sequestration) will be necessary and provide major challenges for industry.

In view of the importance of the world’s future energy supply, The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences (the Academy that awards the Nobel Prizes in physics, chemistry, and The Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel) has recently established an Energy Committee. The Academy is an independent nongovernmental organization, with expertise in most of the sciences as well as economic, social, and humanistic fields. The Energy Committee has selected a number of subjects to be studied in some depth and one of these deals with oil and related carbon-based fuels. The Academy organized hearings and a seminar before subsequently (on October 14, 2005) issuing a statement about oil (the full statement can be found at the end of this text). I’ll note just one excerpt from the general remarks: “It is very likely that the world is now entering a challenging period for energy supply, due to the limited resources and production problems now facing conventional (easily accessible) oil.

For the United States, saving oil is the most important thing that you can do. I mean why should you consume twice as much oil per person than we do in Europe? We are doing quite well with half the amount of oil.

Thanks to the Committee for this opportunity to discuss Peak Oil and the work of Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University, Sweden. We are also members of ASPO, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and since 2003 I’ve been president of ASPO. Members have an interest in determining the date and impact of the peak and decline of the world’s production of oil and gas, due to resource constraints (www.peakoil.net). The mission is to: 1. Define and evaluate the world’s endowment of oil and gas. 2. Model depletion, taking due account of demand, economics, technology and politics. 3. Raise awareness of the serious consequences for Mankind.

 

Robert Hirsch, Senior Energy Program Advisor, SAIC, lead author of 2005 Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, mitigation, & risk management, Department of Energy.

The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end.

Oil is the lifeblood of modern civilization. It fuels most transportation worldwide and is a feedstock for pharmaceuticals, agriculture, plastics and a myriad of other products used in everyday life. The earth has been generous in yielding copious quantities of oil to fuel world economic growth for over a century, but that period of plenty is changing.

The world has never confronted a problem like Peak Oil.

Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an energy crisis in the sense that that term has been used. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trucks, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not the large existing capital stock. And that capital stock has lifetimes measured in decades. Solar, wind, and nuclear power produce electricity, not liquid fuels; their widespread use in transportation is at least 30 to 50 years away.

Risk minimization mandates the massive implementation of mitigation well before the onset of the problem. Since we do not know when peaking is going to occur, that makes a tough problem for you folks as decision makers because if you are going to start 20 years ahead of something that is indeterminate, you have a tough time making the arguments. Mustering support is going to be difficult. We would all like to believe that the optimists are right about peak oil, but the risks, again the risks of them being wrong, are beyond anything that we have experienced, the risks of error are beyond imagination.

The peaking of world oil production represents an enormous risk to the United States and the world. Peak Oil is not a theory. Maximum conventional oil production is coming, but we cannot predict when because no one has the verified data needed for a credible forecast. Peaking could be soon. Our studies through the Department of Energy indicate that soon is within 20 years.

Saudi Arabia

The economic future of the United States is inextricably linked to Saudi Arabia because they are the lynchpin of future world oil production.

No one outside of Saudi Arabia knows how much oil they have in the ground because that is a closely held state secret. Also, no one outside of Saudi Arabia knows how much and how fast the Saudis will be willing to develop what they have. Like it or not, Saudi Arabia is not required to satisfy world needs and conserving their oil is in their national interest. Think risk.

Until recently, OPEC assured the world that oil supply would continue to be plentiful, but that position is changing. In fact, some in OPEC are now warning that oil supply will not be adequate to satisfy world demand in 10-15 years (Moors). Dr. Sadad al-Husseini, retired senior Saudi Aramco oil exploration executive, is on record as saying that the world is heading for an oil shortage; in his words “a whole new Saudi Arabia (will have to be found and developed) every couple of years” to satisfy current demand forecasts (Haas). So the messages from the world’s “breadbasket of oil” are moving from confident assurances to warnings of approaching shortage. Think risk.

Today, EIA is forecasting adequate world’s oil supplies for decades into the future. The question is, are they going to get it right this time? The National Petroleum Council has been asked by Secretary Bodman to assess Peak Oil. Are they going to get it right this time? Think risk.

It is important to recognize that oil production peaking is not “running out.” Peaking is the maximum oil production rate, which typically occurs after roughly half of the recoverable oil in an oil field has been produced.

What is likely to happen on a world scale will be similar to what happens with individual oil fields, because world production is by definition the sum total of production from all of the world’s oil fields.

A recent analysis for the Department of Energy focused on what might be done to mitigate the peaking world oil production. It became abundantly clear early in our study that effect of mitigation would be dependent on the large scale implementation of mega projects and mega changes. We performed a transparent scenario analysis based on crash program mitigation worldwide which is the fastest that is humanly possible. The timing was left open because we do not know when peaking is going to occur. The results were startling. If we wait until peaking occurs, the world will have a problem with adequate liquid fuels for more than two decades. If we start ten years before peaking occurs, that will allay the problem somewhat but in ten years after that, a problem will arise. And finally, if we initiate a crash program 20 years before peaking occurs, we have the possibility, a possibility of avoiding the problem.

If we get oil peaking wrong, how bad might the economic damage be? Unfortunately, there is a paucity of analysis in this area which is tough analysis to do. One study called oil shock wave, which I believe was mentioned earlier, was performed by a group of distinguished former high level Government officials not too long ago. They concluded at a sustained 4% global shortfall would result in oil at $160 a barrel which would push the United States into recession losing millions of jobs.

Note that oil shock wave focused on a multi-year drop in oil supply of 4% total but experts in this business will tell you that 4 to 8% per year is entirely possible and is happening in many parts of the world. Think risk.

Chinese officials have forecast the peaking world oil production around 2012. As this committee knows, China has been making huge investments to secure oil for its own country doing this around the world and paying premium prices. They tried to buy Unocal and that did not work. They offered a premium in that particular case.

BACKGROUND

Oil was formed by geological processes millions of years ago and is typically found in underground reservoirs of dramatically different sizes, at varying depths, and with widely varying characteristics. The largest oil fields are called “super giants,” many of which were discovered in the Middle East. Because of their size and other characteristics, super giant oil fields are generally the easiest to find, the most economic to develop, and the longest-lived.

The world’s last super giant oil fields were discovered in the 1960s. Since then, smaller fields of varying sizes have been found in what are called “oil prone” locations worldwide — oil is not found everywhere.

The concept of the peaking of world oil production follows from the fact that the output of an oil individual field rises after discovery, reaches a peak, and then declines. Oil fields have lifetimes typically measured in decades, and peak production often occurs roughly a decade or so after discovery under normal circumstances.

Oil is usually found thousands of feet below the surface. Oil fields do not typically have an obvious surface signature, so oil is very difficult to find. Advanced technology has greatly improved the discovery process and reduced exploration failures. Nevertheless, world oil discoveries have been steadily declining for decades.

OIL RESERVES

“Reserves” is an estimate of the amount of oil in an oil field that can be extracted at an assumed cost. Thus, a higher oil price outlook often means that more oil can be produced. However, geological realities place an upper limit on price-dependent reserves growth. Specialists who estimate reserves use an array of technical methodologies and a great deal of judgment. Thus, different estimators might calculate different reserves from the same data.

Sometimes self-interest influences reserve estimates, e.g., an oil field owner may provide a high estimate in order to attract outside investment, influence customers, or further a political agenda.

Reserves and production should not be confused. Reserves estimates are but one factor used in estimating future oil production from a given oil field. Other factors include production history, local geology, available technology, oil prices, etc. An oil field can have large estimated reserves, but if a well-managed field is past maximum production, the remaining reserves can only be produced at a diminishing rate. Sometimes declines can be slowed, but a return to peak production is impossible. This fundamental is not often appreciated by those unfamiliar with oil production, and it is often a major factor in misunderstanding the basic nature of oil production.

THE OIL PRICE-RESERVES NEXUS

In the past, higher prices led to increased estimates of conventional oil reserves worldwide. However, this price-reserves relationship has its limits, because oil is found in discrete packages (reservoirs) as opposed to the varying concentrations characteristic of many minerals. Thus, at some price, world reserves of recoverable conventional oil will reach a maximum because of geological fundamentals. Beyond that point, insignificant additional conventional oil will be recoverable at any realistic price. This is a geological fact that is often not understood by economists, many of whom are accustomed to dealing with hard minerals, whose geology is fundamentally different.

Oil companies and governments have conducted extensive exploration worldwide, but their results have been disappointing for decades. On this basis, there is little reason to expect that future oil discoveries will dramatically increase. A related fact is that oil production is in decline in 33 of the world’s 48 largest oil-producing countries.

IMPACTS OF IMPROVED TECHNOLOGY AND HIGHER PRICES

Exploration for and production of petroleum has been an increasingly more technological enterprise, benefiting from more sophisticated engineering capabilities, advanced geological understanding, improved instrumentation, greatly expanded computing power, more durable materials, etc. Today’s technology allows oil fields to be more readily discovered and better understood sooner than heretofore.

Some economists expect improved technologies and higher oil prices will provide ever-increasing oil production for the foreseeable future. To gain some insight into the effects of higher oil prices and improved technology on oil production, consider the history of the U.S. Lower 48 states. This region was one of the world’s richest, most geologically varied, and most productive up until 1970, when production peaked and started into decline.

In constant dollars, oil prices increased by roughly a factor of three in 1973-74 and another factor of two in 1979-80. In addition to these huge oil price increases, the 1980s and 1990s were a golden age of oil field technology development, including practical 3-D seismic, economic horizontal drilling, dramatically improved geological understanding, etc. Nevertheless, Lower 48 oil production still trended downward, showing no pronounced response to either price or technology. In light of this experience, there is no reason to expect that the worldwide situation will be different: Higher prices and improved technology are unlikely to yield dramatically higher conventional oil production.

PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION

Various individuals and groups have used available information and geological tools to develop forecasts for when world oil production might peak. A sampling is shown in Table 1, where it is clear that many believe that peaking is likely within a decade.

MITIGATION

A recent analysis for the U.S. Department of Energy addressed the question of what might be done to mitigate the peaking of world oil production. Various technologies that are commercial or near commercial were considered: 1. Fuel efficient transportation, 2. Heavy oil/Oil sands, 3. Coal liquefaction, 4. Enhanced oil recovery, 5. Gas-to-liquids.

It became abundantly clear early in this study that effective mitigation will be dependent on the implementation of mega-projects and mega-changes at the maximum possible rate. This finding dictated the focus on currently commercial technologies that are ready for implementation.

New technology options requiring further research and development will undoubtedly prove very important in the longer-term future, but they are not ready now, so their inclusion would be strictly speculative.

Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking offers the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period. The reason why such long lead times are required is that the worldwide scale of oil consumption is enormous – a fact often lost in a world where oil abundance has been taken for granted for so long. If mitigation is too little, too late, world supply/demand balance will have to be achieved through massive demand destruction and shortages, which would translate to extreme economic hardship.

WARNING SIGNS

In an effort to gain some insight into the possible character of world oil production peaking, a number of regions and countries that have already past oil peaking were recently analyzed. Areas that had significant peak oil production and that were not encumbered by major political upheaval or cartel action were Texas, North America, the United Kingdom, and Norway. Three other countries that are also past peak production, but whose maximum production was smaller, were Argentina, Colombia, and Egypt. Examination of these actual histories showed that in all cases it was not obvious that production was about to peak a year ahead of the event, i.e., production trends prior to peaking did not provide long-range warning. In most cases the peaks were sharp, not gently varying or flat topped, as some forecasters hope. Finally, in some cases post-peak production declines were quite rapid. It is by no means obvious how world oil peaking will occur, but if it follows the patterns displayed by these regions and countries, the world will have less than a year warning.

IT’S NOT YOUR MOTHER’S ENERGY CRISIS

Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, not an “energy crisis” in the sense that term has often been used. Motor vehicles, aircraft, trains, and ships simply have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not for the existing capital stock, which have very long lifetimes. Non-hydrocarbon-based energy sources, such as renewables and nuclear power, produce electricity, not liquid fuels, so their widespread use in transportation is at best many decades in the future. Accordingly, mitigation of declining world conventional oil production must be narrowly focused, at least in the near-term.

RISK MANAGEMENT.

It is possible that peaking may not occur for a decade or more, but it is also possible that peaking may be occurring right now. We will not know for certain until after the fact. The world is thus faced with a daunting risk management problem. The world has never confronted a problem like this. Risk minimization requires the implementation of mitigation measures well prior to peaking.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

Over the past century world economic development has been fundamentally shaped by the availability of abundant, low-cost oil. Previous energy transitions (wood to coal, coal to oil, etc.) were gradual and evolutionary; oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary. The world has never faced a problem like this. Without massive mitigation at least a decade before the fact, the problem will be pervasive and long lasting. Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem.

Robert L. Hirsch is a Senior Energy Program Advisor for SAIC and a consultant in energy. Previous employment included executive positions at the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission, the U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration, Exxon, ARCO, EPRI, and Advance Power Technologies, Inc. Dr. Hirsch is a past Chairman of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems at the National Academies. He has a Ph.D. in engineering

Haas, P. August 21, 2005. The Breaking Point. New York Times Magazine.

Moors, K.F. How Reliable are Saudi Production and Reserve Estimates? Dow Jones

 

Robert Esser, Senior consultant & director, Global oil & Gas resources, Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA):

CERA does not recognize a peak in oil capacity until at least 2030.

We at CERA have been conducting continuing research on the future of oil supplies. The following are our basic conclusions. One, the world is not running out of oil imminently, or in the medium term. Our field by field activity based analysis points to a substance build-up of liquid capacity over the next several years. Two, an increasing share of supplies will come from non-traditional or unconventional oils from the ultra-deep waters, from oil sands, from gas related liquids in which we include condensates and natural gas liquids and also the conversion of gas to liquids. Three, rather than an isolated peak, we should expect an undulating plateau, perhaps three or four decades from now. Peaking does not imply a precipitous decline towards running out. Four, one reason for the general pessimism about future supplies is that based on Cambridge Energy’s reserve study, the reserve disclosure rules mandated by the Securities and Exchange Commission are based on decades old technology and need to be updated to reflect the new technology which is now available to verify reserves. Five, the major risk to this outlook, however, are not below ground geological factors but above ground geopolitical factors.

Our sources of new supply: new capacity comes from the development of recent discoveries, older discoveries only recently made available – such as all of those huge fields now being developed in the Caspian Sea area – existing field reserve upgrades, and the drilling response to high prices which will tend to reduce decline rates in mature areas. Accordingly, the CERA outlook is a more optimistic picture than many of the other publicly available outlets and strongly contradicts those who believe Peak Oil is imminent.

Key trends: in our core scenario, which is at the high end of our expectations, CERA expects capacity could increase by as much as 15 million barrels a day to 102 million barrels a day by 2010. This is up from the 87 million barrels a day currently with a further increase of 6 million barrels a day to 108 million barrels by 2015. This is a 25% increase. All regions except the United States and the North Sea will show strong growth to 2020. Non-OPEC countries with strong growth in exports include Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Angola, Brazil, and Canada. Actually right now there is no more intense exploration in producing play than the Canadian oil sands. Strong growth takes place in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries till 2010, however, we also recognize that this will moderate by 2015.

This is led by gas related liquids associated with the gas under development to meet the soaring demand for liquefied natural gas, especially for the United States and other country and regional gas demand growth. The inclusion of these gas related liquids is certainly warranted as they too satisfy the demand of the liquid oil demand.

The increases in capacity are also underpinned by the development of the characteristic very large discoveries recently made in very deep waters since the late 1990’s. The top ten discoveries alone each year add something on the order of 2 to 2-1/2 million barrels a day. Accordingly, CERA does not recognize a peak in oil capacity until at least 2030.

Many risks loom on the horizon that could impact productive capacity. Most of these are above ground risks such as severe lack qualified manpower and the shortage of rigs. Political risks occur in most OPEC countries especially in Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, and non-OPEC Russia. Other risks include access to areas of major under discovered reserve potential, a slowdown in the company sanction of new field development, and this is most important, an unexpected higher than assumed decline rate in some of the large Middle East fields, and lastly, delayed Government sanction of certain long awaited projects in Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE. Should many of these concerns take place in the near future, capacity in 2010 could be 5 million barrels a day lower than projected.

In addition to crude oil from conventional settings, our analysis concludes that unconventional oil—condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), deepwater production, extra heavy oils and gas-to-liquids (GTLs) will represent about 35% of total capacity in 2015— compared to 10% in 1990.

Political risks also have an impact on capacity expansion in the Middle East, where the situation in Iraq continues to be highly problematic, and there is growing uncertainty over events in Iran. In Russia, changes in ownership, the constraints of geology, and the fiscal and regulatory systems, as well as logistical bottlenecks and geological challenges – all these have led to the end of Russia’s high supply growth era. In Venezuela fiscal and political changes have hindered the recovery of oil production and investment in the aftermath of the late 2002/early 2003 disruption and are likely to have continuing impact.

 

Our views about the peak oil debate have been reinforced by a detailed new audit of our own analysis and also further evidence that has come to light concerning the enormous scale of field reserve upgrades of existing fields. We also draw upon the proprietary databases of IHS, of which CERA is now part. These are the most extensive and complete databases on field production around the world. We see no evidence to suggest a peak before 2020, nor do we see a transparent and technically sound analysis from another source that justifies belief in an imminent peak.

It will be a number of decades into this century before we get to an inflexion point that will herald the arrival of the “undulating plateau. Assuming no serious political crises in key producing countries or an unexpected shortfall in investment, global oil production capacity will continue to grow strongly toward 102.4 mbd by 2010 from the current level of 87.2 mbd. [NOTE: BUT IT DIDN’T GO UP 15.2 mbd, it went up only .7 mbd. EIA world oil production 2005 = 73.9 mbd, 2010 = 74.6, not sure where CERA came up with 87.2 mbd]

Production capacity of extra heavy oil from Canada and Venezuela will expand from 1.8 mbd in 2005 to 4.9 mbd in 2015 . Despite accidents earlier in 2005 the Canadian projects are moving forward at an accelerating pace. Expansion from 1.2 mbd currently to 3.4 mbd by 2015 is anticipated, with approximately half being mined and the remainder in situ.

[Canadian oil sand production was only 2.2 mbd in 2014 and possibly less in 2016 due to oil bubble popping]

MURRAY SMITH, MINISTER—COUNSELLOR GOVERNMENT, CANADIAN EMBASSY

Today Alberta produces just over 2 million barrels a day and will grow to 2.5 million in three to four years and about 3 million barrels per day before 2015. Alberta crude oil production from oil sands is currently in excess of 1 million barrels per day (bbl/d). Production is anticipated to reach 3 million bbl/d by 2015, and 5 million bbl/d by 2030.

Alberta is recognized as the home of the second largest oil reserves in the world. From initial reserves in place of 1.7 trillion barrels of oil, there are currently 174.5 billion barrels of oil in established reserves and 315 billion barrels believed to be ultimately recoverable.

Replies of Robert Hirsch to questions asked by representatives

I was on the National academy panel that reviewed a hydrogen program and provided the report that came out a year ago. We spent a year looking into the issues in a great deal of detail. It is technically feasible to do hydrogen, but it is not economically feasible. And for the economics to make any sense at all, you have to have breakthroughs in two areas in particular. One is in fuel cells which are totally inadequate for the application right now and the other is onboard storage. You cannot predict when those breakthroughs are going to occur. We took an optimistic view as to when these vehicles might enter the market in order to see how long it would take for them to have an impact. But do not bet on it. You just cannot bet on it because the things that are needed that are essential to go do not exist now.

My work was for the Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory and I am familiar with the work at other laboratories. Computer simulations are not worth a damn if you do not have data to go in that has any kind of certainty to it. And that data does not exist. It simply does not exist. When CERA makes their estimates, they are using estimates. When other people predict other dates for peaking, they are using estimates. They are taking bits and pieces of information. In some cases they are basing their projections on what somebody tells them without any independent verification. So a computer program with bad data is going to give you a bad result.

I ran exploration and production research at Atlantic Richfield and we looked at not only the technologies that were being developed, but we looked off into the future and there have been improvements, 3D, 4D seismic has come along, there is horizontal drilling that was developed in large part by somebody who was in the laboratory that I managed. There is deep water. What has happened there is rather dramatic and rather marvelous. But if you look at all of those things and the character of the problem, there will definitely be improvements made, but they are not going to change the basic picture. They will change the time by maybe a matter of years.

You have to keep in mind that some of those technologies in fact will drain reservoirs faster than would otherwise be the case. And under those conditions, you are going to have a big ramp up, but then you are going to have a much sharper drop afterwards.

I think that all of us would agree that you do not pick winners in a situation like this; you go with anything that is reasonable. I totally agree with my colleague here that biodiesel, as wonderful as it sounds, is going to be a sliver in terms of the problem. And finally, in terms of having a program, there needs to be a will first and there needs to be a worldwide will and then there needs to be Government stepping in and facilitating the private sector to doing things on a basis that has not been done before. That is the only way you are going to minimize the risks. That is not what we are talking about today in detail, but that is effectively what has to happen.

ROSCOE BARTLETT. When it comes to ethanol production you should not look at the total BTU’s in ethanol and assume that those will contribute to our energy usage. The production of ethanol I hope will have an energy profit ratio which is positive. But it will never be very positive. We will always be putting a major percentage of the energy into producing ethanol that we get out of ethanol. Just a word of caution in looking at ethanol and that goes for any of the things produced in agriculture by the way.

I understand that the Canadian oil sands may be using more energy from natural gas to produce the oil than they are getting out of the oil. That is fine if it is stranded gas, but ultimately we will have a real limitation on what we can do there. They are now thinking of building a nuclear power plant to get the quantities of energy that they use to do this. So I would just like to caution that the enormous reserves in the oil sands and tar shales are not net energy realizable. You may end up using six barrels of oil and get a net energy of one barrel of oil. I do not know what that energy profit ratio will be but it ain’t high.

Fuel cells: two problems with fuel cells, one is storage that was mentioned. We had experts testifying recently and they said of the three methods of storing it one is as a gas in a pressure vessel that is just too heavy. Another is a liquid. The insulation is too much and the difficulty of pressurizing it is too great. But the only feasible way that it will become economically widely used is to have solid state storage which really means you are dealing with a hydrogen battery. And a fundamental question is – is the hydrogen battery fundamentally more energy efficient than an electron battery, which we have a whole lot of. I understand if you could wave a magic wand that every vehicle in the world today would have a fuel cell in it that we would use all the platinum in the world. So clearly, you have got to have some big breakthroughs in fuels cells before this is going to be feasible.

One of the ways of producing more oil is to drill as many wells in Saudi Arabia as we drilled in our country. We have about what three fourths of all the oil wells in the world in our country. Yeah, you will get more oil more quickly from Saudi fields but all you are doing is climbing a hill and the peak is going to be higher. You are going to fall off the peak and the descent, you know, you cannot pump what is not there and if you are able to pump it more quickly now there is going to be less to pump in the future.

I would just like to note that there are risks that responding too early, you are using resources you might have used for something else but I think that the risk of responding too late are overwhelming, that any rational people would buy, you know, maybe responding too early. Thank God it is too early because if it is too late we are really in for a big problem.

I would like to caution about energy from agriculture. Two cautions, one, we are barely able to feed the world. Tonight a fourth of the world will go to bed hungry.

And I would like to caution you to be careful about how much biomass you want to rape from our topsoils.

We are barely able now to maintain the quantity and quality of our topsoils and that is because we are not returning humus to them. I asked the Department of Agriculture, do you think we have more and better topsoil? The answer is no. For every bushel of corn we raise in Iowa, we lose three bushels of topsoil down the Mississippi River. So I would be very cautious about how much energy you expect–and by the way, it is not–the energy profit ratio from agriculture is not high. We would have to have a much more energy efficient agriculture if we are going to get any energy from agriculture in the future.

Twenty-five of the 48 oil producing countries in the world are now in decline. How are we going to get more oil in the future if that is true? And, you know, what to do? I think what we need to do is obvious, a massive effort of conservation, a big investment in efficiency, and big investments in alternatives. I do not think what we need to do is questionable. I think the will to do it may be very questionable.

KJELL ALEKLETT. We have now 65 countries in the world that are major producers of oil; 54 out of those 65 have already passed the peak of production and are going down. The next five years, another five countries will be past the peak, for instance China and Mexico that we know about. And so by 2010 there will be six countries that might be closer to increase their production. One of those is Bolivia and they are making something like 800,000. But take for instance Brazil that is considered to be one of the successful nations. What they have found down there is something like 12 billion barrels of oil in ultra deep water. And 12 billion barrels when we are consuming 30 billion barrels per year, well can that save the world?

Yes, Saudi Arabia will go up to 12.5 and they are committed to do that, but Kuwait for instance, the big field there is declining now. They are officially saying that and many other things. So I do not think it is possible to get this increase. And just look at numbers and start to think for yourself because that is what we need now, even level thinking.

ROBERT HIRSCH. Well I would just amplify on his points. If you have got the overwhelming number of countries in the world that have been oil producers that are already past their peak, that means less production from them and world demand continues to increase, therefore, the gap is not just the increased gap, it is the increase plus the loss that is associated with these others on the down slope and that gets to be bigger, and bigger, and bigger, and the rates catch up to you very, very quickly.

UDALL. I think the crucial part of the debate here and you have–the panelists have hit it several times that it does not matter when we peak. The important thing and, you know we have people today that are reliable folks that are saying that we peaked already. And one of our panelists says it is 2030, others it could be 2010, we do not know. But I do not think we should be getting in that debate. The focus we should have on this is what should we be doing to move us forward.

These panelists have hit on the idea of political will around the world and I think that is very, very important, us to have the will and the stamina to really take this on. My understanding we are doing a very small amount of research compared to what people do and Governments do in other areas. And what about global warming?

ALEKLETT. Let me start with the global warming, please, because if you look into these scenarios about how much carbon dioxide that will be produced in the future, it is obvious that they are overestimating the amount that can be produced from oil and natural gas. And it is now more or less agreed that we can burn all the natural gas and the conventional oil and it will not affect so much the global change. The problem is coal. We should work on coal. We should not have the carbon dioxide coming out in the air from coal. That is a big problem for the future.

HIRSCH. I would like to comment on your point about political will because the political will in our system with the way things are working right now is very hard to muster. In fact, in the current circumstances, the high probability would be to wait until the problem hits because then the political will be there, because consumers will be screaming. I would say that China has the political will and China is out acquiring and investing in ways to secure their own supply. They seem to have the political will which we do not have as yet.

ALEKLETT. Another thing with China is that they can say that you are not allowed to buy a car that takes so much gas; you must buy one that takes a smaller amount. Another thing is we have the world problem with diesel coming out. Everyone thinks that diesel should be used because you get better efficiency on the cars. But the problem is that the capacity of producing diesel in the refineries is not enough in the world.

Another thing I think we have to consider is the countries in the Middle East and North Africa. These countries have 75% of the remaining resources of oil in the world and these people also understand that this is the only resource they have to make money for the future.

I have visited the Middle East a couple of times now and every time when I am down there they said we had to think about future generations, our children and grandchildren; they must get money for something also. So why should we pump all now that we do not need the money when our children need it in the future. In Kuwait the parliament says no to increasing production to save it for future generations, so do not count on these countries increasing their production, because they know that they need it in the future.

When I lived in California, I liked to go up in the gold country and the ghost towns there were quite chilling. They are ghost towns because there was a limited resource of gold and silver.

UDALL . Any predictions at all on prices in terms of gasoline? I mean are we going to go back down in terms of the price per barrel?

HIRSCH. I do not think anybody could tell you. And anybody that gives you a prediction may not understand the problem. It is too complex. There are too many forces at work. There are things that happen that are unpredictable. You cannot predict the price.

COMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND COMMERCE

 

JOE BARTON, Texas, Chairman

 

RALPH M. HALL, Texas                      JOHN D. DINGELL, Michigan

MICHAEL BILIRAKIS, Florida                  Ranking Member

Vice Chairman                           HENRY A. WAXMAN, California

FRED UPTON, Michigan                      EDWARD J. MARKEY, Massachusetts

CLIFF STEARNS, Florida                    RICK BOUCHER, Virginia

PAUL E. GILLMOR, Ohio                     EDOLPHUS TOWNS, New York

NATHAN DEAL, Georgia                      FRANK PALLONE, JR., New Jersey

ED WHITFIELD, Kentucky                    SHERROD BROWN, Ohio

CHARLIE NORWOOD, Georgia                  BART GORDON, Tennessee

BARBARA CUBIN, Wyoming                    BOBBY L. RUSH, Illinois

JOHN SHIMKUS, Illinois                    ANNA G. ESHOO, California

HEATHER WILSON, New Mexico                BART STUPAK, Michigan

JOHN B. SHADEGG, Arizona                  ELIOT L. ENGEL, New York

CHARLES W. “CHIP” PICKERING,  Mississippi ALBERT R. WYNN, Maryland

Vice Chairman                           GENE GREEN, Texas

VITO FOSSELLA, New York                   TED STRICKLAND, Ohio

STEVE BUYER, Indiana                      DIANA DEGETTE, Colorado

GEORGE RADANOVICH, California             LOIS CAPPS, California

CHARLES F. BASS, New Hampshire            MIKE DOYLE, Pennsylvania

JOSEPH R. PITTS, Pennsylvania             TOM ALLEN, Maine

MARY BONO, California                     JIM DAVIS, Florida

GREG WALDEN, Oregon                       JAN SCHAKOWSKY, Illinois

LEE TERRY, Nebraska                       HILDA L. SOLIS, California

MIKE FERGUSON, New Jersey                 CHARLES A. GONZALEZ, Texas

MIKE ROGERS, Michigan                     JAY INSLEE, Washington

C.L. “BUTCH” OTTER, Idaho                 TAMMY BALDWIN, Wisconsin

SUE MYRICK, North Carolina                MIKE ROSS, Arkansas

JOHN SULLIVAN, Oklahoma

TIM MURPHY, Pennsylvania

MICHAEL C. BURGESS, Texas

MARSHA BLACKBURN, Tennessee

GRESHAM BARRETT, South Carolina

Posted in Peak Oil, Peak Oil History, U.S. Congress Energy Policy | Tagged , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Peak lithium makes transportation & electricity storage pointless

Preface.  The lithium batteries in cars need electricity to recharge, but the electric grid can’t stay up with just wind and solar, that’s why natural gas is the energy storage today. Nor do pumped hydro or compressed air energy storage scale up.  And battery storage doesn’t either.

Barnhart (2013) found that the only utility-scale battery for which there were enough materials on earth to store 12 hours of electricity production were Sodium sulfur (NaS) yet the main batteries being developed for both utility-scale electricity storage and automobiles is lithium.  To provide enough energy storage for just 1 day of electricity generation in the United states, li-ion batteries would cost $11.9 trillion dollars, take up 345 square miles, weigh 74 million tons, and need replacement after 15 years (DOE/EPRI 2013).  Multiply that by 28 since at least four weeks of energy storage are needed to cope with the seasonality of wind and solar. That doesn’t leave much if any lithium for cars. Vazquez (2010) also points out that lithium does not grow on trees, and the amount needed for utility-scale storage is likely to deplete known resources (Vazquez 2010).

And what’s the point of electrifying cars? That only replaces gasoline. But it is diesel that’s needed, peak diesel is the real existential crisis, since large trucks, locomotives, and ships burn diesel. Without this transportation civilization ends within a week.  I explain this in greater detail in my book “When Trains Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation“. The main reason trucks can’t run on batteries is that they weigh too much in long haul, tractors, harvesters, bulldozers, fire, logging, mining and myriad other essential heavy duty trucks doing the actual work of civilization. Plus over 80% of U.S. cities have no rail or ports and depend on trucks alone.

Not only that, batteries are doomed by the laws of physics to never come close to the energy density of petroleum, as I explain in Who Killed the Electric Car & more importantly, the Electric Truck?

Lithium is preferred because it’s the 3rd lightest element after gases hydrogen and helium, and weight is a big deal when it comes to transportation.  Li-ion batteries also have disadvantages — they are more expensive than lead or sulfur, can be charged and discharged only a discrete number of times, can fail or lose capacity if overheated, and the cost of preventing overheating is expensive.

Anyone who isn’t dissuaded that lithium is too limited to replace petroleum should also consider the tremendous amount of environmental harm done and limitations of water and other resources to mine lithium (Katwala 2018, Friedemann 2021)

This post is mainly excerpts from Vikström et al (2013). This is the best paper I’ve seen about lithium reserves, recycling, and more. Do read it online since I’ve taken out the tables, graphs, and more. A few points made are that:

  • Li is highly reactive and flammable. For this reason, it never occurs freely in nature
  • Li only appears in about 120 mineral compounds. Very few have commercial value — many are too small or have too low a grade of lithium. Exploitation must generally be tailor-made for each mineral since they differ significantly in chemical composition, hardness and other properties.
  • Much of the lithium extracted today comes from high altitude brines, which are pumped into evaporation ponds where it can take up to two years to be ready for harvest, and longer if the region is cold or rainy, making it hard to ramp up production when there’s more demand.
  • The many reasons extraction from sea water is unlikely
  • Dependency is dangerous, 85% of the global reserves are situated in just two countries: Chile and China.

At the ASPO 2005 Denver conference there were discussions about how renewable energy would be the last wall street bonanza before the energy crisis struck, so I don’t expect valuable time, money, and energy to be put to use preparing for the future permanent emergency.  But there’s a lot that could be done instead, see the last chapter of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy.

In the news:

Clifford (2022) The price has gone up 480% in the last year, and from $4,450/tonne to $78,032/tonne today. Elon Musk tweeted that the price of lithium has gone to insane levels, so Tesla may get into the lithium mining and refining business directly and at scale. Although the U.S. has lithium deposits, there are limited refining resources.

Penn (2018) There are only 25 years of zinc reserves left and goes on to say that lithium reserves are even smaller — amounting to just 5% of zinc reserves (Penn 2018).

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Vikström, H., Davidsson, S., Höök, M. 2013. Lithium availability and future production outlooks. Applied Energy 110: 252-266.

Several recent studies have used different methods to estimate whether the lithium production can meet an increasing demand, especially in the transport sector, where lithium-ion batteries are the most likely technology for electric cars. The reserve and resource estimates of lithium vary greatly between different studies and the question whether the annual production rates of lithium can meet a growing demand is seldom adequately explained. This study presents a review and compilation of recent estimates of quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discusses the uncertainty and differences between these estimates. We find that the availability of lithium could in fact be a problem for fulfilling this scenario if lithium-ion batteries are to be used. This indicates that other battery technologies might have to be implemented for enabling an electrification of road transports.

Global transportation mainly relies on one single fossil resource, namely petroleum, which supplies 95% of the total energy with two-thirds of all world oil consumption consumed in the transport sector. [My note: world conventional oil peaked in 2008 — 90% of oil consumed, and both conventional and unconventional (mainly fracked tight shale oil) in 2018, see Peak Oil is Here!].

Barely 2% of the world electricity is used by transportation, mainly trains, trams, and trolley buses.  A high future demand of Li for battery applications may arise if society chooses to employ Li-ion technologies for a decarbonization of the road transport sector.

Recently, a number of studies have investigated future supply prospects for lithium. However, these studies reach widely different results in terms of available quantities, possible production trajectories, as well as expected future demand. The most striking difference is perhaps the widely different estimates for available resources and reserves, where different numbers of deposits are included and different types of resources are assessed.

It has been suggested that mineral resources will be a future constraint for society, but a great deal of this debate is often spent on the concept of geological availability, which can be presented as the size of the tank. What is frequently not reflected upon is that society can only use the quantities that can be extracted at a certain pace and be delivered to consumers by mining operations, which can be described as the tap. The key concept here is that the size of the tank and the size of the tap are two fundamentally different things. This study attempts to present a comprehensive review of known lithium deposits and their estimated quantities of lithium available for exploitation and discuss the uncertainty and differences among published studies, in order to bring clarity to the subject.

Li is highly reactive and flammable. For this reason, it never occurs freely in nature and only appears in compounds, usually ionic compounds. The nuclear properties of Li are peculiar since its nuclei verge on instability and two stable isotopes have among the lowest binding energies per nucleon of all stable nuclides. Due to this nuclear instability, lithium is less abundant in the solar system than 25 of the first 32 chemical elements.

An important frequent shortcoming in the discussion on availability of lithium is the lack of proper terminology and standardized concepts for assessing the available amounts of lithium. Published studies talk about “reserves”, “resources”, “recoverable resources”, “broad-based reserves”, “in-situ resources”, and “reserve base”.  A wide range of reporting systems minerals exist, such as NI 43-101, USGS, Crirsco, SAMREC and the JORC code, and further discussion and references concerning this can be found in Vikström. Definitions and classifications used are often similar, but not always consistent, adding to the confusion when aggregating data. Consistent definitions may be used in individual studies, but frequently figures from different methodologies are combined as there is no universal and standardized framework. In essence, published literature is a jumble of inconsistent figures. If one does not know what the numbers really mean, they are not simply useless – they are worse, since they tend to mislead.

Broadly speaking, resources are generally defined as the geologically assured quantity that is available for exploitation, while reserves are the quantity that is exploitable with current technical and socioeconomic conditions. The reserves are what are important for production, while resources are largely an academic figure with little relevance for real supply. For example, usually less than one tenth of the coal resources are considered economically recoverable. Kesler et al. stress that available resources needs to be converted into reserves before they can be produced and used by society. Still, some analysts seemingly use the terms ‘resources’ and ‘reserves’ synonymously.

It should be noted that the actual reserves are dynamic and vary depending on many factors such as the available technology, economic demand, political issues and social factors. Technological improvements may increase reserves by opening new deposit types for exploitation or by lowering production costs. Deposits that have been mined for some time can increase or decrease their reserves due to difficulties with determining the ore grade and tonnage in advance. Depletion and decreasing concentrations may increase recovery costs, thus lowering reserves. Declining demand and prices may also reduce reserves, while rising prices or demand may increase them. Political decisions, legal issues or environmental policies may prohibit exploitation of certain deposits, despite the fact significant resources may be available.

For lithium, resource/reserve classifications were typically developed for solid ore deposits. However, brine – presently the main lithium source – is a fluid and commonly used definitions can be difficult to apply due to pumping complications and varying concentrations.

Houston et al. describes the problem in detail and suggest a change in NI 43-101 to account for these problems. If better standards were available for brines then estimations could be more reliable and accurate, as discussed in Kushnir and Sandén.

Environmental aspects and policy changes can also significantly influence recoverability. Introduction of clean air requirements and public resistance to surface mining in the USA played a major role in the decreasing coal reserves.

It is entirely possible that public outcries against surface mining or concerns for the environment in lithium producing will lead to restrictions that affect the reserves. As an example, the water consumption of brine production is very high and Tahil estimates that brine operations consume 65% of the fresh water in the Salar de Atacama region. [The Atacama only gets 0.6 inches of rain a year]

Regarding future developments of recoverability, Fasel and Tran monotonously assume that increasing lithium demand will result in more reserves being found as prices rise. So called cumulative availability curves are sometimes used to estimate how reserves will change with changing prices, displaying the estimated amount of resource against the average unit cost ranked from lowest to highest cost. This method is used by Yaksic and Tilton to address lithium availability. This concept has its merits for describing theoretical availability, but the fact that the concept is based on average cost, not marginal cost, has been described as a major weakness, making cumulative availability curves disregard the real cost structure and has little – if any – relevance for future price and production rate.

The high reactivity of lithium makes it geochemistry complex and interesting. Lithium-minerals are generally formed in magmatic processes. The small ionic size makes it difficult for lithium to be included in early stages of mineral crystallization, so lithium remains in the molten parts where it gets enriched until it can be solidified in the final stages.

At present, over 120 lithium-containing minerals are known, but few of them contain high concentrations or are frequently occurring. Lithium can also be found in naturally occurring salt solutions as brines in dry salt lake environments. Compared to the fairly large number of lithium mineral and brine deposits, few of them are of actual or potential commercial value. Many are very small, while others are too low in grade. This chapter will briefly review the properties of those deposits and present a compilation of the known deposits.

Lithium extraction from minerals is primarily done with minerals occurring in pegmatite formations. However, pegmatite is rather challenging to exploit due to its hardness in conjunction with generally problematic access to the belt-like deposits they usually occur in. Table 1 describes some typical lithium-bearing minerals and their characteristics. Australia is currently the world’s largest producer of lithium from minerals, mainly from spodumene. Petalite is commonly used for glass manufacture due to its high iron content, while lepidolite was earlier used as a lithium source but presently has lost its importance due to high fluorine content. Exploitation must generally be tailor-made for a certain mineral as they differ quite significantly in chemical composition, hardness and other properties. Table 2 presents some mineral deposits and their properties.

Recovery rates for mining typically range from 60 to 70%, although significant treatment is required for transforming the produced Li into a marketable form.  The costs of acid, soda ash, and energy are a very significant part of the total production cost but may be partially alleviated by the market demand for the sodium sulphate by-products.

Lithium can also be found in salt lake brines that have high concentrations of mineral salts. Such brines can be reachable directly from the surface or deep underground in saline expanses located in very dry regions that allow salts to persist. High concentration lithium brine is mainly found in high altitude locations such as the Andes and south-western China. Chile, the world largest lithium producer, derives most of the production from brines located at the large salt flat of Salar de Atacama.

Lithium has similar ionic properties as magnesium since their ionic size is nearly identical; making is difficult to separate lithium from magnesium. A low Mg/Li ratio in brine means that it is easier, and therefore more economical to extract lithium.

The ratio differs significant at currently producing brine deposits and range from less than 1 to over 30. The lithium concentration in known brine deposits is usually quite low and range from 0.017–0.15% with significant variability among the known deposits in the world (Table 3).

Exploitation of lithium brines starts with the brine being pumped from the ground into evaporation ponds. The actual evaporation is enabled by incoming solar radiation, so it is desirable for the operation to be located in sunny areas with low annual precipitation rate. The net evaporation rate determines the area of the required ponds. It can easily take between one and two years before the final product is ready to be used, and even longer in cold and rainy areas.

The long timescales required for production can make brine deposits ill fit for sudden changes in demand. Table 3. Properties of known brine deposits in the world.

The world’s oceans contain a wide number of metals, such as gold, lithium or uranium, dispersed at low concentrations. The mass of the world’s oceans is approximately 1.35*1012 Mt, making vast amounts of theoretical resources seemingly available. Eckhardt and Fasel and Tran announce that more than 2,000,000 Mt lithium is available from the seas, essentially making it an “unlimited” source given its geological abundance. Tahil  also notes that oceans have been proclaimed as an unlimited Li-source since the 1970s.

The world’s oceans and some highly saline lakes do in fact contain very large quantities of lithium, but if it will become practical and economical to produce lithium from this source is highly questionable.

For example, consider gold in sea water – in total nearly 7,000,000 Mt. This is an enormous amount compared to the cumulative world production of 0.17 Mt accumulated since the dawn of civilization. There are also several technical options available for gold extraction. However, the average gold concentration range from <0.001 to 0.005 ppb. This means that one km3 of sea water would give only 5.5 kg of gold. The gold is simply too dilute to be viable for commercial extraction and it is not surprising that all attempts to achieve success – including those of the Nobel laureate Fritz Haber – has failed to date.

Average lithium concentration in the oceans has been estimated to 0.17 ppm. Kushnir and Sandén argue that it is theoretically possible to use a wide range of advanced technologies to extract lithium from seawater – just like the case for gold. However, no convincing methods have been demonstrated this far.  Grosjean et al. points to the fact that even after decades of improvement, recovery from seawater is still more than 10–30 times more costly than production from pegmatites and brines. It is evident that huge quantities of water would have to be processed to produce any significant amounts of lithium. Bardi presents theoretical calculations on this, stating that a production volume of lithium comparable to present world production (~25 kt annually) would require 1.5*103 TWh of electrical energy for pumping through separation membranes in addition to colossal volumes of seawater. Furthermore, Tahil estimated that a seawater processing flow equivalent to the average discharge of the River Nile – 300,000,000 m3/day or over 22 times the global petroleum industry flow of 85 million barrels per day – would only give 62 tons of lithium per day or roughly 20 kt per year. Furthermore, a significant amount of fresh water and hydrochloric acid will be required to flush out unwanted minerals (Mg, K, etc.) and extract lithium from the adsorption columns.

In summary, extraction from seawater appears not feasible and not something that should be considered viable in practice, at least not in the near future.

From data compilation and analysis of 112 deposits, this study concludes that 15 Mt are reasonable as a reference case for the global reserves in the near and medium term. 30 Mt is seen as a high case estimate for available lithium reserves and this number is also found in the upper range in literature. These two estimates are used as constraints in the models of future production in this study.

Estimates on world reserves and resources vary significantly among published studies. One main reason for this is likely the fact that different deposits, as well as different number of deposits, are aggregated in different studies. Many studies, such as the ones presented by the USGS, do not give explicitly state the number of deposits included and just presents aggregated figures on a national level. Even when the number and which deposits that have been used are specified, analysts can arrive to wide different estimates (Table 5). It should be noted that a trend towards increasing reserves and resources with time can generally be found, in particularly in USGS assessments. Early reports, such as Evans [56] or USGS [59], excluded several countries from the reserve estimates due to a lack of available information. This was mitigated in USGS when reserves estimates for Argentina, Australia, and Chile have been revised based on new information from governmental and industry sources. However, there are still relatively few assessments on reserves, in particular for Russia, and it is concluded that much future work is required to handle this shortcoming. Gruber et al noted that 83% of global lithium resources can be found in six brine, two pegmatite and two sedimentary deposits. From our compilation, it can also be found that the distribution of global lithium reserves and resources are very uneven.

Three quarters of everything can typically be found in the ten largest deposits (Figure 1 and 2). USGS pinpoint that 85% of the global reserves are situated in Chile and China (Figure 3) and that Chile and Australia accounted for 70% of the world production of 28,100 tonnes in 2011. From Table 2 and 3, one can note a significant spread in estimated reserves and resources for the deposits. This divergence is much smaller for minerals (5.6–8.2 Mt) than for brines (6.5– 29.4 Mt), probably resulting from the difficulty associated with estimating brine accumulations consistently. Evans also points to the problem of using these frameworks on brine deposits, which are fundamentally different from solid ores. Table 5. Comparison of published lithium assessments.

Recycling

One thing that may or may not have a large implication for future production is recycling. The projections presented in the production model of this study describe production of lithium from virgin materials. The total production of lithium could potentially increase significantly if high rates of recycling were implemented of the used lithium, which is mentioned in many studies.

USGS [12] state that recycling of lithium has been insignificant historically, but that it is increasing as the use of lithium for batteries are growing. However, the recycling of lithium from batteries is still more or less non-existent, with a collection rate of used Li-ion batteries of only about 3% [93]. When the Li-ion batteries are in fact recycled, it is usually not the lithium that is recycled, but other more precious metals such as cobalt [18].

If this will change in the future is uncertain and highly dependent on future metal prices, but it is still commonly argued for and assumed that the recycling of lithium will grow significantly, very soon. Goonan [94] claims that recycling rates will increase from vehicle batteries in vehicles since such recycling systems already exist for lead-acid batteries. Kushnir and Sandén [18] argue that large automotive batteries will be technically easier to recycle than smaller batteries and also claims that economies of scale will emerge when the use for batteries for vehicles increase. According to the IEA [95], full recycling systems are projected to be in place sometime between 2020 and 2030. Similar assumptions are made by more or less all studies dealing with future lithium production and use for electric vehicles and Kushnir and Sandén [18] state that it is commonly assumed that recycling will take place, enabling recycled lithium to make up for a big part of the demand but also conclude that the future recycling rate is highly uncertain.

There are several reasons to question the probability of high recycling shares for Li-ion batteries. Kushnir and Sandén state that lithium recycling economy is currently not good and claims that the economic conditions could decrease even more in the future. Sullivan and Gaines argue that the Li-ion battery chemistry is complex and still evolving, thus making it difficult for the industry to develop profitable pathways. Georgi-Maschler highlight that two established recycling processes exist for recycling Li-ion batteries, but one of them lose most of the lithium in the process of recovering the other valuable metals. Ziemann et al states that lithium recovery from rechargeable batteries is not efficient at present time, mainly due to the low lithium content of around 2% and the rather low price of lithium.

In this study we choose not to include recycling in the projected future supply for several reasons. In a short perspective, looking towards 2015-2020, it cannot be considered likely that any considerable amount of lithium will be recycled from batteries since it is currently not economical to do so and no proven methods to do it on a large scale industrial level appear to exist. If it becomes economical to recycle lithium from batteries it will take time to build the capacity for the recycling to take place. Also, the battery lifetime is often projected to be 10 years or more, and to expect any significant amounts of lithium to be recycled within this period of time is simply not realistic for that reason either.

The recycling capacity is expected to be far from reaching significant levels before 2025 according to Wanger. It is also important to separate the recycling rates of products to the recycled content in new products. Even if a percentage of the product is recycled at the end of the life cycle, this is no guarantee that the use of recycled content in new products will be as high. The use of Li-ion batteries is projected to grow fast. If the growth happens linearly, and high recycling rates are accomplished, recycling could start constituting a large part of the lithium demand, but if the growth happens exponentially, recycling can never keep up with the growth that has occurred during the 10 years lag during the battery lifetime. In a longer time perspective, the inclusion of recycling could be argued for with expected technological refinement, but certainties regarding technology development are highly uncertain. Still, most studies include recycling as a major part of future lithium production, which can have very large implications on the results and conclusions drawn. Kushnir and Sandén suggest that an 80% lithium recovery rate is achievable over a medium time frame. The scenarios in Gruber et al, assumes recycling participation rates of 90 %, 96% and 100%. In their scenario using the highest assumed recycling, the quantities of lithium needed to be mined are decreased to only about 37% of the demand. Wanger looks at a shorter time perspective and estimates that a 40% or 100% recycling rate would reduce the lithium consumption with 10% or 25% respectively by 2030. Mohr et al assume that the recycling rate starts at 0%, approaching a limit of 80%, resulting in recycled lithium making up significant parts of production, but only several decades into the future. IEA projects that full recycling systems will be in place around 2020–2030.

To estimate whether the projected future production levels will be sufficient, it is interesting to compare possible production levels with potential future demand. The use of lithium is currently dominated by use for ceramics and glass closely followed by batteries. The current lithium demand for different markets can be seen in Figure 7. USGS state that the lithium use in batteries have grown significantly in recent years as the use of lithium batteries in portable electronics have become increasingly common. Figure 7 (Ceramics and glass 29%, Batteries 27%, Other uses 16%, Lubrication greases 12%, Continuous casting 5%, Air treatment 4%, Polymers 3%, Primary aluminum production 2%, Pharmaceuticals 2%).

Global lithium demand for different end-use markets. USGS state that the total lithium consumption in 2011 was between 22,500 and 24,500 tonnes. This is often projected to grow, especially as the use of Li-ion batteries for electric cars could potentially increase demand significantly. This study presents a simple example of possible future demand of lithium, assuming a constant demand for other uses and demand for electric cars to grow according to a scenario of future sales of electric cars. The current car fleet consists of about 600 million passenger cars. The sale of new passenger cars in 2011 was about 60 million cars. This existing vehicle park is almost entirely dependent on fossil fuels, primarily gasoline and diesel, but also natural gas to a smaller extent. Increasing oil prices, concerns about a possible peak in oil production and problems with anthropogenic global warming makes it desirable to move away from fossil energy dependence. As a mitigation and pathway to a fossil-fuel free mobility, cars running partially or totally on electrical energy are commonly proposed. This includes electric vehicles (EVs), hybrid vehicles (HEVs) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid vehicles), all on the verge of large-scale commercialization and implementation. IEA concluded that a total of 1.5 million hybrid and electric vehicles had been sold worldwide between the year 2000 and 2010.

Both the expected number of cars as well as the amount of lithium required per vehicle is important. As can be seen from Table 9, the estimates of lithium demand for PEHV and EVs differ significantly between studies. Also, some studies do not differentiate between different technical options and only gives a single Li-consumption estimate for an “electric vehicle”, for instance the 3 kg/car found by Mohr et al. The mean values from Table 9 are found to be 4.9 kg for an EV and 1.9 kg for a PHEV.

As the battery size determines the vehicles range, it is likely that the range will continue to increase in the future, which could increase the lithium demand. On the other hand, it is also reasonable to assume that the technology will improve, thus reducing the lithium requirements. In this study a lithium demand of 160 g Li/kWh is assumed, an assumption discussed in detail by Kushnir and Sandén. It is then assumed that typical batteries capacities will be 9 kWh in a PHEV and 25 kWh in an EV. This gives a resulting lithium requirement of 1.4 kg for a PHEV and 4 kg for an EV, which is used as an estimate in this study. Many current electrified cars have a lower capacity than 24 kWh, but to become more attractive to consumers the range of the vehicles will likely have to increase, creating a need for larger batteries. It should be added that the values used are at the lower end compared to other assessments (Table 9) and should most likely not be seen as overestimates future lithium requirements.

Figure 8 shows the span of the different production forecasts up until 2050 made in this study, together with an estimated demand based on the demand staying constant on the high estimate of 2010– 2011, adding an estimated demand created by the electric car projections done by IEA. This is a very simplistic estimation future demand, but compared to the production projections it indicates that lithium availability should not be automatically disregarded as a potential issue for future electric car production. The amount of electric cars could very well be smaller or larger that this scenario, but the scenario used does not assume a complete electrification of the car fleet by 2050 and such scenarios would mean even larger demand of lithium. It is likely that lithium demand for other uses will also grow in the coming decades, why total demand might increase more that indicated here. This study does not attempt to estimate the evolution of demand for other uses, and the demand estimate for other uses can be considered a conservative one. Figure 8. The total lithium demand of a constant current lithium demand combined with growth of electric vehicles according to IEA’s blue map scenario assuming a demand for 1.4 kg of lithium per PHEV and 4.0 kg per EV. The span of forecasted production levels range from the base case Gompertz model

Potential future production of lithium was modeled with three different production curves. In a short perspective, until 2015–2020, the three models do not differ much, but in the longer perspective the Richards and Logistic curves show a growth at a vastly higher pace than the Gompertz curve. The Richards model gives the best fit to the historic data, and lies in between the other two and might be the most likely development. A faster growth than the logistic model cannot be ruled out, but should be considered unlikely, since it usually mimics plausible free market exploitation [89]. Other factors, such as decreased lithium concentration in mined material, economics, political and environmental problems could also limit production.

It can be debated whether this kind of forecasting should be used for short term projections, and the actual production in coming years can very well differ from our models, but it does at least indicate that lithium availability could be a potential problem in the coming decades. In a longer time perspective up to 2050, the projected lithium demand for alternative vehicles far exceeds our most optimistic production prognoses.

If 100 million alternative vehicles, as projected in IEA are produced annually using lithium battery technology, the lithium reserves would be exhausted in just a few years, even if the production could be cranked up faster than the models in this study. This indicates that it is important that other battery technologies should be investigated as well.

It should be added that these projections do not consider potential recycling of the lithium, which is discussed further earlier in this paper. On the other hand, it appears it is highly unlikely that recycling will become common as soon as 2020, while total demand appears to potentially rise over maximum production around that date. If, when, and to what extent recycling will take place is hard to predict, although it appears more likely that high recycling rates will take place in electric cars than other uses.

Much could change before 2050. The spread between the different production curves are much larger and it is hard to estimate what happens with technology over such a long time frame. However, the Blue Map Scenario would in fact create a demand of lithium that is higher than the peak production of the logistic curve for the standard case, and close to the peak production in the high URR case.

Improved efficiency can decrease the lithium demand in the batteries, but as Kushnir and Sandén point out, there is a minimum amount of lithium required tied to the cell voltage and chemistry of the battery.

IEA acknowledges that technologies that are not available today must be developed to reach the Blue Map scenarios and that technology development is uncertain. This does not quite coincide with other studies claiming that lithium availability will not be a problem for production of electric cars in the future.

It is also possible that other uses will raise the demand for lithium even further. One industry that in a longer time perspective could potentially increase the demand for lithium is fusion, where lithium is used to breed tritium in the reactors. If fusion were commercialized, which currently seems highly uncertain, it would demand large volumes of lithium.

Further problems with the lithium industry are that the production and reserves are situated in a few countries (USGS in Mt: Chile 7.5, China 3.5, Australia 0.97, Argentina 0.85, Other 0.135]. One can also note that most of the lithium is concentrated to a fairly small amount of deposits, nearly 50% of both reserves and resources can be found in Salar de Atacama alone. Kesler et al note that Argentina, Bolivia, Chile and China hold 70% of the brine deposits. Grosjean et al even points to the ABC triangle (i.e. Argentina, Bolivia and Chile) and its control of well over 40% of the world resources and raises concern for resource nationalism and monopolistic behavior. Even though Bolivia has large resources, there are many political and technical problems, such as transportation and limited amount of available fresh water, in need of solutions.

Regardless of global resource size, the high concentration of reserves and production to very few countries is not something that bode well for future supplies. The world is currently largely dependent on OPEC for oil, and that creates possibilities of political conflicts. The lithium reserves are situated in mainly two countries. It could be considered problematic for countries like the US to be dependent on Bolivia, Chile and Argentina for political reasons. Abell and Oppenheimer discuss the absurdity in switching from dependence to dependence since resources are finite. Also, Kushnir and Sandén discusses the problems with being dependent on a few producers, if a problem unexpectedly occurs at the production site it may not be possible to continue the production and the demand cannot be satisfied.

Although there are quite a few uncertainties with the projected production of lithium and demand for lithium for electric vehicles, this study indicates that the possible lithium production could be a limiting factor for the number of electric vehicles that can be produced, and how fast they can be produced. If large parts of the car fleet will run on electricity and rely on lithium based batteries in the coming decades, it is possible, and maybe even likely, that lithium availability will be a limiting factor.

To decrease the impact of this, as much lithium as possible must be recycled and possibly other battery technologies not relying on lithium needs to be developed. It is not certain how big the recoverable reserves of lithium are in the world and estimations in different studies differ significantly. Especially the estimations for brine need to be further investigated. Some estimates include production from seawater, making the reserves more or less infinitely large. We suggest that it is very unlikely that seawater or lakes will become a practical and economic source of lithium, mainly due to the high Mg/Li ratio and low concentrations if lithium, meaning that large quantities of water would have to be processed. Until otherwise is proved lithium reserves from seawater and lakes should not be included in the reserve estimations. Although the reserve estimates differ, this appears to have marginal impact on resulting projections of production, especially in a shorter time perspective. What are limiting are not the estimated reserves, but likely maximum annual production, which is often missed in similar studies.

If electric vehicles with li-ion batteries will be used to a very high extent, there are other problems to account for. Instead of being dependent on oil we could become dependent on lithium if li-ion batteries, with lithium reserves mainly located in two countries. It is important to plan for this to avoid bottlenecks or unnecessarily high prices. Lithium is a finite resource and the production cannot be infinitely large due to geological, technical and economical restraints. The concentration of lithium metal appears to be decreasing, which could make it more expensive and difficult to extract the lithium in the future. To enable a transition towards a car fleet based on electrical energy, other types of batteries should also be considered and a continued development of battery types using less lithium and/or other metals are encouraged. High recycling rates should also be aimed for if possible and continued investigations of recoverable resources and possible production of lithium are called for.

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Vaccari, D.A., Strigul, N., 2011. Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves. Chemosphere 84, 792–797.

Van Enk, R.J., Van der Vee, G., Acera, L.K., Schuiling, R., Ehlert, P., 2011. The phosphate balance: current developments and future outlook. The ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation initiated and finances InnovationNetwork. ISBN: 978–90–5059–414–1

van Kauwenbergh, S., 2010. World Phosphate Rock Reserves and Resources.The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC).

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Posted in Automobiles, Battery - Utility Scale, Electrification, Peak Lithium, Recycle, Recycling | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Highlights of the Denver Peak Oil 2005 conference

Preface. I just added the category “Peak Oil History” because I believe the coming oil crisis will be a complete surprise to the vast majority of the public who are unaware of the role fossil fuels play in our civilization, that we are completely dependent on them for the most part in transportation, manufacturing, food production and more.

In 2005 I went to the first USA peak oil (ASPO) conference in Denver, where some of the speakers included:

  • Albert Bartlett Professor Emeritus of Physics, University of Colorado. Arithmetic, Population, and Energy          http://www.hawaii.gov/dbedt/ert/symposium/bartlett/bartlett.html
  • Congressman Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland, co-founder of the House of Representatives Peak Oil Caucus with Senator Tom Udall of New Mexico (other members or co-sponsors include James McGovern (MA), Vern Ehler (MI), Mark Udall (CO), Raul Grijalva (AZ), Wayne Gilchrest (MD), Jim Moran (VA), Dennis Moore (KS) and cosponsors virgil Goode, Walter Jones, Tom Tancredo, Phil gingrey, Randy Kuhl, Steve Israel, G.K. Butterfield, Chris Van Hollen, Al Wynn, John McHugh. House Resolution 507: Expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that the United States, in collaboration with other international allies, should establish an energy project with the magnitude, creativity, and sense of urgency that was incorporated in the ‘Man on the Moon’ project to address the inevitable challenges of ‘Peak Oil’.
  • Dr. Roger H. Bezdek, co-author with Robert Hirsch of the Department of Energy 2005 “Peak Oil Mitigation Plan”
  • Peter Dea,  CEO of Western Gas Resources, a 3.5 billion dollar natural gas exploration and production company
  • Jeremy Gilbert, worked at BP as chief petroleum engineer, VP of Alaska exploration
  • Henry Groppe founded Groppe, Long & Littell in 1955.  This energy consulting firm is noted for long range forecasts of oil and gas supply, demand and prices.
  • Charles A. S. Hall, Systems Ecologist, obtained his PhD working with Howard Odum, the great energy theorist, and founder of the concept of Energy Returned on Energy Invested
  • John Hickenlooper, Mayor of the City & County of Denver (and now Senator Hickenlooper of Colorado and one of the very few with a science degree (geology))
  • Dick Lamm, former Governor of Colorado
  • Charles Maxwell, Senior Energy Analyst with Weeden & Co., has worked in the energy field for 36 years
  • Tom Petrie CEO of Petrie Parkman & Co., an energy investment banking firm.
  • John Sheehan, is at NREL now and at DOE before that, working on biodiesel and ethanol projects for 12 years
  • Matt Simmons   CEO of an energy investment banking firm
  • Chris Skrebowski Editor of the UK Petroleum Review

I wrote this up to share with the Oakland & San Francisco peak oil groups that David Room began in 2004.  We invited Tad Patzek and many other professors at U.C. Berkeley to educate us, and other experts such as David Fridley at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

I suspect that given how there are endless stories in the news about moving as fast as possible to renewables now that Putin has invaded Ukraine and with Europe very dependent on Russia to provide oil, natural gas, and coal, the world will be surprised when energy shocks occur.  Though at first this will be blamed on Putin and other oil nation leaders as well as not enough investment in renewables, at least by the public.  But as you can see from the category Experts/Government, the House, Senate, and military are very aware of petroleum being the life blood of society.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Highlights of the Denver ASPO Nov 10-11, 2005 conference by Alice Friedemann

This is a summary of the Association for the study of Peak Oil & Gas conference.  ASPO is concerned about the cultural, economic, and ecological impacts of petroleum depletion.  Energy resource management must include conservation and efficiency, and the ecological use of energy in production and consumption. Petroleum depletion will force extensive changes, so it’s imperative to find the most constructive ways to deal with them at all levels of government in partnership with private and public organizations. Since no nation will be able to resolve its energy challenges without due consideration for the energy needs of other nations, we encourage international cooperation in the development, production and consumption of our planet’s energy resources”.

The establishment, the Wall Street “suits”, the CEO’s, and politicians have jumped on the peak oil bandwagon.  Even Prince Charles is aware of Peak Oil.  Over 26 congressional members now understand the implications of Peak Oil, thanks to Congressman Bartlett, and a Peak Oil Congressional caucus has been formed.

Randy Udall dubbed it the “Energy Woodstock”, though no one was running around naked. The speakers and over 425 people in the audience were from government agencies, universities, oil companies, green builders, politicians, journalists (though none from the papers of record), and so on.  There was a feeling that history was being made.

I was sad that Dr. Youngquist, author of the most important book I’ve ever read, “Geodestinies: The Inevitable Control of Earth Resources over Nations & Individuals” wasn’t there to receive the award he received in absentia (he couldn’t come because he’s taking care of his wife).   I had no idea how many other people besides myself revered him, there was tremendous applause, cheering, and a standing ovation.  Walter Youngquist said in a prepared statement, “Peak oil will affect more people in more places in more ways than anything else in the history of the world.”

Dr. Albert Bartlett, who I also admire a great deal, was also given an award.  And I had the wonderful good fortune to meet Dr. Charles A. S. Hall, student of Howard Odum, who has published papers on human use of energy in the ecological system, energy returned on energy invested, and hopes to someday replace neoclassical economics with economics based on living sustainably and in balance with nature.

I’m going to talk about depletion, techno-fixes, poverty, what can we do, the surprising speech of Republican congressman Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland, why aren’t politicians doing more, and insights of speakers I found interesting.

From what I learned at the conference, it sounds like tight oil shale oil and gas won’t give us energy independence, but give us another decade or two of “normalcy” and relatively cheap oil to carry on as usual. Nor are there alternatives to oil that can save us, so I don’t mention any of the speakers on biodiesel, natural gas cars, etc. I’ve also interjected a lot of my own analysis and some information from outside of the conference.

Depletion and Techno-Fixes

One piece of big news was Matt Simmons telling us he’d heard from Sadad Al-Husseini, former vice director of Saudi Aramco, the largest oil company in the world, that the world’s 2nd largest oil field in the world, in Kuwait, has peaked.

And even bigger, scarier news that depletion of oil  (the decline of production rates from oil fields) might be running at 8% per year, not the 2% often used in projections.  This is what Andrew Gould, CEO of oil service company Schlumberger says appears to be the case. The 8% possible rate of decline was also mentioned in the presentations of Chris Skrebowski, Tom. Petrie, Henry Groppe, Matt Simmons, and Roger Bezdek.  This is a civilization collapsing big deal, too fast to cope with.

In addition to physical geological depletion, the capitalist economic system pushes companies into exploiting the oil unwisely to produce a larger profit today rather than coddling the oil fields responsibly to maximize overall oil output for tomorrow, as illustrated in this comment in the discussion of the article above:

“My company has a decline rate exceeding 15% because we push to maximize production. We do this because offshore operating costs are high, and by getting it out as fast as possible, we reduce the operating overhead over time quite a bit. Many offshore operations do the same thing, and it is likely to become the norm as lifting and finding costs are rising to stratospheric heights. Thunderhorse is a prime example of this, where the injection wells are actually in place before first oil. But as much as that monster cost them, the only way to get your money back and then make more is to move the whole thing to the next big project…”

Robert L. Hirsch, just wrote a paper for the October 2005 vol 226 no 10 issue of worldoil.com which concludes: “The data shows that the onset of peaking can occur quite suddenly, peaks can be very sharp, and post-peak production declines can be comparatively steep (3 – 13%). Thus, if historical patterns are appropriate indicators, the task of planning for and managing world conventional oil peaking will indeed be very challenging”.

Even bigger news was the extraordinarily high depletion rate of natural gas, which peaked 32 years ago.  According to Peter Dea, the decline rate for natural gas in North America is 31% (in new wells).  And we can’t import it to a meaningful extent for years (if ever, given how every LNG plant that’s been proposed has been shot down in the United States by cities that don’t want something with the explosive force of a small atomic bomb nearby).   The LNG plant slated for Mexico will be add a drop in the bucket, not enough to make any difference.

Dea said that half of the natural gas we need in 2012 to stay flat we haven’t even discovered yet.  This will be a huge challenge.  We’ll need to drill 27,300 new wells by 2020, and 35,000 if renewables haven’t kicked in.  We learned from Charles Brister, a Drilling Field Engineer, and John Barnes, the CEO of a small oil company, we don’t have enough drilling rigs to do that. Following the oil price collapse in the 1980’s the rig count plummeted from about 4,000 to 600 rigs by 1999.  Most of the rigs were melted down for scrap iron.  Over half a million oil-workers lost their jobs.  So there aren’t enough rigs or people to drill for more oil and gas. Half of existing employees will be eligible for retirement in 10 years.

Which brings us to the much touted Techno-Fix that optimists insist will save us.  Matt Simmons told us there is a staffing crisis in the energy business.  There aren’t enough oil engineers to invent new technology, and you can’t invent new technology in a month like you can in Silicon Valley.   None of the speakers saw a techno-fix superhero flying to our rescue, only desperate stopgap measures until some unknown deus ex machina saves us.

Matt Simmons, Peter Dea, and other speakers said the next energy shock will be natural gas, not oil. It’s already been a shock to the 100,000 chemical and fertilizer workers who’ve lost their jobs.   Homeowners are next. [2022 update: it’s fracked oil that will hit before natural gas it turns out, 7 or the 8 basins are in steep decline, and the Permian has maybe 5 to 10 years more oil left]

One of the reasons the depletion rate is so high is the technology that’s supposed to be saving us has accelerated the rate of depletion instead, as both Tom Petrie and Matt Simmons pointed out. The 3D seismic imagers found oil and gas sooner than they would have otherwise been found. The extra pipes, or think of it as extra straws in a milkshake of petroleum, have pulled out the existing oil faster. Matt Simmons, in his book “Twilight in the Desert”, also talks about the damaging methods that may have been used to maximize short-term profits in Saudi Arabia’s large oil fields (and no doubt in many other oil-fields as well).

Simmons remarked “what’s left is heavy, gunky, dirty, sour, contaminated oil.  It doesn’t come out fast, and it’s very energy intensive to get out”.  It will take a while to get our refineries up-to-speed to process this lower-quality oil, and the processing will be slower and more expensive.

So in summary, there is a likelihood of a potentially high over-all rate of decline in world oil fields, due to technology, greed, gunky oil, shortages of oil-workers, and shortages of rigs.  In addition, the rate will further be accelerated by hurricanes, revolutions wars, missed deadlines on oil projects, and increased demand from China and India.

It won’t help that we’ll be trying to buy oil with from countries that hate us with questionable dollars.  Not only have United States citizens maxed out their credit cards, the national debt is at a level the World Bank would never allow a third world country to reach.  Will oil countries even want to sell us oil for our inflated dollars?

It would be stupid beyond belief to seek a military way out of our predicament, surely we should learn from the mistakes the British made trying to do this (see Yergin’s “The Prize” for details). And it wouldn’t work.  We’d plunge the Middle East into civil war, they’d blow up their refineries and pipelines, etc.

The population of the world is growing by 250,000 people a day.  They all want oil.  To feed that demand, at this point the world uses about 30 billion barrels of oil a year.  Peak oil means that there will even be less oil for us and all the new people coming on board.  If the overall decline rate became 2% (we’re not there just yet), then we’d have 24.5 billion barrels of oil in 10 years, even though the demand will be for 37.3 billion.  When the scary 8% depletion rate occurs, then we’ll have only 13 billion barrels in 10 years.  This is “The Gap” that everyone is trying to figure out how fill.

Something’s got to give.  Princeton professor Kenneth Deffeyes believes the consequences will be “War, famine, pestilence and death”.

In terms of your financial situation, realize that everything you shop for will go up in price.  Consider one of the most basic: food.  Not only will growing it cost more, because agriculture uses 10 kcal of fossil fuel to produce 1 kcal of food, we’ll be selling food for oil.  You’ll also be competing with China, because they’re on the brink of starvation (read Lester Brown’s “Who will feed China”?), but at least they’ve got a balance of trade with us so large they can afford to buy all of our grain.

You’ll be damned lucky to still have a job 10 years after oil decline begins (that date isn’t known yet, just that it’s coming since oil is finite).  If you do, the government will be sorely tempted to tax you to the max to get revenue to pay for essential services, such as water and sewage, delivery of food from agricultural regions, extra police to maintain civil order, etc.

After Denver Mayor Hickenlooper spoke, a young man asked him to consider what what’s being taught to children in Denver schools.  He said “Don’t we need to change that?  What I’m hearing is that most of us will be out of jobs unless we’re farmers or energy gurus.  Shouldn’t we start teaching children now how to grow their own food?”  Hickenloopers plans for energy decline included self sufficient smaller cities spread out along rail lines into Central Denver and to try to get people to live near where they worked.

I’m not going to go into what was said about renewable energy, because it could not possibly make a dent in the shortfall of oil and natural gas we’re facing.  This is a liquid fuel crisis:  wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, wave, and hydropower are irrelevant.

Biomass liquid fuels such as ethanol and biodiesel have a number of problems. First, there’s one of scale – biomass contributes less than 3% of our energy now.  To ramp that up to replace declining oil and natural gas would require farming all of the worlds’ land for energy crops for the United States alone.   We’ll all have to become Breatharians.

Most importantly, the environmental effects are unacceptable.  The energy required to remediate the damage is not even considered in the EROI of biomass. Growing crops for fuel depletes the groundwater that fifty percent of Americans now rely on.  Industrial agriculture pollutes ground and surface water irreparably with pesticides, herbicides, and fungicides.   Farmers use a lot of natural gas based fertilizers, which allows them to grow three to five times as much as they could otherwise, but natural gas is declining quickly, so industrial agriculture will not be able to produce a significant amount of biomass long-term.  The nitrogen runoff from these fertilizers is killing the Gulf of Mexico – why isn’t lost fish and shrimp protein taken into account when calculating the EROI of biomass?  Finally, any biomass you remove from the soil harms the soil structure, increases erosion, depletes soil nutrition, and ultimately turns the land into a desert.

However, there is one important use for ethanol:  we’re all going to need a little moonshine to drown our sorrows as times grow harder.

All of the speakers mentioned poverty.

The tremendous inflation and loss of jobs will lead to a depression that will make the Great Depression seem trivial.  Roger Bezdek said “Four recessions followed oil spikes and shortages in the past.  That’s nothing compared to what lies ahead.  The impacts in 1973 and 1979 were brief.  The next oil shortage will kick in a time of immense suffering and shortages as it gets worse every year for the next 20 years.

Charlie Maxwell, said: “We’ve decided to ration by price.  It’s a sign of our failure.  As part of Wall Street culture, I’m aware of the Pyramid of Debt – which will eventually result in the decline of the dollar.  I hate high prices, but I don’t know any other way to go about reducing demand.  A great depression is likely.

Denver Mayor Hickenlooper said that it made sense to help the poor with their gas and electric bills in the dead of winter to get them through the coldest months, but to do that forever in the future as the permanent energy crisis hits would bankrupt the city, it can’t be done.  And how was he going to keep the snowplows running, collect the garbage, etc? He’ll be meeting with the mayors of Oakland, Chicago, Seattle, Portland, Austin to discuss and share ideas on how to cope with declining energy in cities, and they’ll present their findings at the national conference of mayors.

Plan “B”

The DOE Peak Oil mitigation report is very important, because it’s the most likely plan to be tried.  Bedzek seemed the most shaken of all the speakers, he kept saying things like “the world has never faced a problem like oil peaking”, and was clearly unnerved by the 8% depletion rate being bandied about, he said his estimates were based on a 2% decline, there was no way his proposed stopgap measures could save us if the rate of decline is that high.

The Hirsch-Bedzek plan will try to make up for oil depletion with Heavy Oil, Gas-to-Liquids, Enhanced Oil Recovery, Efficient Vehicles and Coal Liquids.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland gave the most amazing speech at the conference.

He said: “Let’s not fill in the gap.  We shouldn’t use the Hirsch plan, because the higher you rise, the harder you fall.  And the more damage you do to the environment.  When the stopgap measures run out, even more people will die than if we just kicked the oil habit now”.

He dismisses all other energy sources as potential solutions, so he’s taken what some would call the “deep ecology” position – let the die-off begin.  Though he hopes to cheat death by having us stay under the depletion curve, reducing our demand by 5% relentlessly year after year (he didn’t say this at the conference, I found out later that’s what he has in mind).

He said “We’ve blown 25 years even though we KNEW peak was coming!  Shouldn’t we have paid attention when we had a chance to cushion the fall?”  We’ve borrowed a tremendous amount of money from our children’s future.  But we can’t borrow their time.  We should have started yesterday, but it’s too late for that. We must begin reducing demand NOW.  What kind of world are we going to leave to our children?

He also talked about exponential growth, which is key to understanding the situation we’re in.  To illustrate exponential growth, Bartlett talked about how if we have 250 years left of reserves in coal, and we turn to coal to solve our problems, increasing our use by 2% a year — a very modest rate of growth considering what a huge amount is needed to replace oil — then the reserve would only last 85 years.  If we liquefy it, then it would only last 50 years, because it takes a lot of energy to do that.

He also said there was no such thing as sustainable growth.  And that efficiency would do nothing for us.  He explained Jevons paradox to the audience.  First he gave the standard example: when people buy cars that go twice as far on a gallon of gas, they drive twice as far.  Then he talked about a businessman who puts low-watt lighting in his factory and saves $5,000.  If he spends the money on a vacation in Europe, he’s more than burned up that saved energy in jet fuel.  If he puts the money in the bank, it’s even worse, the bank will lend that money out another 5 or 6 times, and some guy using a lot of energy to grow his business will borrow it.

Congressman Bartlett put up a slide of Easter Island heads captioned EASTER ISLAND – They Didn’t Make It!  He said: “I’d like to make the case that that’s where we are now.  They ended up eating each other.  How did they reach that point?  Aren’t we doing the same thing?”

After the event, about half a dozen of us surrounded congressman Bartlett.  He is a true Renaissance man, he discussed satellites, regional droughts in the southwest, his life as a farmer, but what I thought most interesting was that Bartlett told us the main problem was population. This is a topic he said he and other politicians don’t dare mention.

Why aren’t politicians doing more?

After the conference, I had a chance to ask Congressman Bartlett if Barbara Lee knew about Peak Oil, and he said “Oh yes”.  She and 26 others were on board with him.  But they were dealing with day-to-day matters, Peak oil wasn’t on their front burner.  It would take an oil shock to make that happen.

Bartlett also said “I’m cognizant that people like to hear good news and that politicians who bring bad news don’t get re-elected”.

Insights

Jeremy Gilbert told us that “In the Middle east, admitting decline is a sign of weakness.  It’s not in their interests to be honest.  We’re using 5 times more oil than we’re finding.  It’s likely there’s 775 Billion barrels in the ground, and 130 billion left to find”.  Or 29 years left at current rates of use.

Henry Groppe thought that 35 people pulled off the biggest heist in world history when they took over soviet oil fields.

Some of the energy analysts said that Big Oil is likely to drill for oil on Wall Street, it’s a lot easier to find it there than in the ground.

Charles Hall told us that drilling for oil appears to have a negative net energy according to the New York Times October 10, 2004 article by James Boxwell “Top oil groups fail to recoup exploration costs”.  Current production of oil from existing wells has a net energy of around 17.  Compare that with the net energy of 100 we got when we first started drilling for oil.  In one of the articles he gave me, he guesses that you can’t run western civilization without an EROI of at least 5.

I asked one of the speakers at the conference, who has known this was coming for decades, how he planned to cope with what lies ahead.  He said he hopes to be dead when the shit hits the fan.

Chris Skrebowski: “Because the price of natural gas-based fertilizer is so high now, I’ve heard farmers in Europe say they may plow under their potatoes and grow rape seed, in other words, grow energy rather than food crops”.

Chris thought factors that might advance ‘Peak Oil’, which are already occurring, are: Project slippage, increasing taxes with tighter terms on oil production, accelerating decline rate, upheavals in major producers, which has already happened in Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela, accelerating demand growth in China & India, wars, revolutions, & hurricanes.

Bedzek thought environmental protections were unlikely to fare well if there’s widespread hardship.

Randy Udall, one of the conference organizers, told us that “Oil has given us a perpetual motion machine, something we’ve always sought.  Oil has the greatest energy density known to man apart from nuclear”.

Randy pointed out we’re as dependent on oil as the Sioux were on buffalo.  They had many songs and rituals to celebrate that.  But in America, our level of discussion is at the level of talking about people stuck in an elevator during a power outage at MacDonald’s:

Charles Maxwell thought enough oil was coming online from 2006 through 2008 that prices might remain relatively flat on average, though Chris Skrebowski whispered to me that that would only be true if the depletion rate were only 2%.  Weedon said that if the price of oil remained flat, it would be a bad thing, because the Cornucopians would be crowing that $22 oil was coming back and we’d be complacent and do nothing.  He fears we may try to assassinate Venezuela’s Chavez, which would immediately drive oil to $100 a barrel, because Venezuela provides 14% of our energy. It’s a sure bet that civil war would erupt, taking Venezuelan oil offline indefinitely. Weedon closed with, “Someday, we’ll be like Oliver Twist begging “Please sir, can I have more!” from countries that don’t like us, that will suddenly have a lot more political power, and it is not in their national interest to drain their oil quickly to please us, so prices are going to go way up eventually.

Weedon believes that deflation is the greatest danger, and that the dollar will fall.

Matt Simmons talked about how too many key countries are past peak, that decline rates might now be 8 to 10% or that high within a decade or so.  The world is running out of spare drilling rigs – finding new oil without ample rigs is a tough task. The top 250 oil fields produce 80% of the world’s oil.  In Saudi Arabia, 5 super giant fields produce 90% of the output, three more another 8%.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett said: Our financial system is likely to collapse because it’s predicated on growth and paying off debt.

Roger Bezdek said that the goal of his stop-gap measures was to avoid economic catastrophe.

Charles Maxwell said “If we don’t choose community, it will put a terrible strain on democracy.  If Americans feel like other groups are taking away what’s rightfully theirs, things will get very ugly”.  He told us about declining times in Greece, and how the public turned to a tyrant to prevent a further fall.  But it backfired, and Greece collapsed.

Matt Simmons second slide was “Crises Do Happen”.  The bullet points were “Although the 20th century was the greatest century of enlightenment and innovation, it was also a century marked by unattended problems that became awful crises”, and he lists WWI, WWII, the Great Depression, and Stalin and Mao killing over 100 million of their citizens.

I asked Chris Skrebowski about the possible nationalization of oil and gas companies, and he said absolutely — five years after peak, the government will have no choice if the depletion rate is 6% or more.  The military will say they can’t keep going without their share, mayors will ask for a certain amount for their police forces to maintain civil order, and so on.

Basically we have about 5 years of relatively normal lives after Peak oil, barring wars and if everything goes well.  So enjoy the party while it lasts.  It isn’t over yet, but it’s darn close.

 

Posted in Advice, Peak Oil History | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why Canadian oilsands will not help solve the energy crisis

Preface. I posted this back in 2011, but it is all still true, plus a lot more in my additional posts here. The Canadian oil sands are reputed to be the 3rd largest oil reserve (10%), but they are unconventional and trickle out slowly unlike cheap conventional from Saudi Arabia #2 (16%).  And Venezuela is #1 with 18% of oil reserves, but like oil sands, very heavy oil — unconventional as well — and very difficult to obtain, refine  so also unlikely to help with the energy crisis because Venezuela is collapsing.

I thought I’d republish this post since world peak oil production happened in 2018. Which is great news, it is the only possible way we will ever reduce emissions and maybe spare the earth from becoming an uninhabitable greenhouse (for us at least, reptiles will be happy). Though it does reduce carrying capacity quite a bit. Start singing “Green Acres is the Place to Be” to prepare yourself mentally.

As the crisis worsens, oil sands aren’t likely to help with the energy crisis. Indeed, their energy return on invested is so low they exist now thanks to the subsidization from cheap plentiful conventional oil.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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The problems with oilsands (tarsands) are:

1)   In the tar sands open-pit mines, to produce one barrel of synthetic crude it takes 2 tons of tar sands, 250 gallons of water and 1700 cubic feet of natural gas. Feb 2008 ASPO newsletter.

2) Oil sands take tremendous amounts of energy to process, requiring expensive mining, crushing, high temperatures, centrifuging, and a lot of water to strip the oil from the tar sands to which the oil is clinging. Consider this description of Brendan Koerner’s about how oil sands are mined:

“Alberta’s black gold isn’t the stuff that geysered up from Jed Clampett’s backyard. It’s more like a mix of Silly Putty and coffee grounds – think of the tar patties that stick to the bottom of your sandals at the beach – and it’s trapped beneath hundreds of feet of clay and rock”. Koerner describes the mining process as: First, shovels excavate thousands of tons of soil and clay, creating a 150-foot pit for mining the oil sands below. Then the oil sand is piled into trucks capable of carrying 400 tons. These trucks dump their payload into crushers, which grind it down to fine oil-coated grains. The grains are then transferred via conveyor to a cyclofeeder, where it’s mixed with hot water to produce a slurry. The slurry flows to the extraction facility, where large centrifuges separate out the oil-rich bitumen. The bitumen flows to cokers, where it’s heated to remove impurities such as sulfur and nitrogen, leaving only usable crude oil.

3) In Canada, it’s hard to do this in the six month winter, when temperatures can often drop below -40F.

4) No matter how the extraction is done, the process is slow [the flow rate will hardly make a dent in world oil supplies], and will never replace the amount of oil we’re presently using.

5) It’s not clear whether the EROEI will continue to be positive as the mining pit gets deeper. It takes more energy for a 400 ton truck to get back to the factory from 300 feet down than when it’s initially scraping the surface.

6) Using nuclear power to refine tar sands won’t work, because it wouldn’t be long before the oil sands being mined are too far from the nuclear power plant to transport it there economically.

May 26, 2007. Brian Wang. Nuclear Power for the Oilsands.

7) Massive use of water in an area that is a cold desert with very little rain. Up to 2 barrels of water are used for every barrel of oil produced.

8) They could add substantially to climate change.  To date burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and so on have rleased 570 billion metric tons of carbon and 250 billion tons of carbon dioxide since 2000.  At this rate we’ll emit the trillionth metric ton of carbon in sthe summer of 2041.  The tar sands represent a lot of unburned carbon, about 170 billion barrels (enough for 6 years of world consumption) that would release 25 billion metric tons of carbon if burned.  Luckily engineers don’t have a clue about how to get at the remaining 1.63 trillion barrels of oil, which sould add 250 billion metric tons of carbon.

9) Destructive in so many ways: Climate change, biodiversity, environment. Destruction of forests, water quality, wildlife, fish

June 4, 2011. James E. Hansen. Silence Is Deadly I’m Speaking Out Against The Canada–U.S. Tar Sands Pipeline. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/04-5

The environmental impacts of tar sands development include: irreversible effects on biodiversity and the natural environment, reduced water quality, destruction of fragile pristine Boreal Forest and associated wetlands, aquatic and watershed mismanagement, habitat fragmentation, habitat loss, disruption to life cycles of endemic wildlife particularly bird and Caribou migration, fish deformities and negative impacts on the human health in downstream communities. Although there are multiple objections to tar sands development and the pipeline, including destruction of the environment in Canada, and the likelihood of spills along the pipeline’s pathway, such objections, by themselves, are very unlikely to stop the project.

An overwhelming objection is that exploitation of tar sands would make it implausible to stabilize climate and avoid disastrous global climate impacts. The tar sands are estimated (e.g., see IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) to contain at least 400 GtC (equivalent to about 200 ppm CO2). Easily available reserves of conventional oil and gas are enough to take atmospheric CO2 well above 400 ppm, which is unsafe for life on earth. However, if emissions from coal are phased out over the next few decades and if unconventional fossil fuels including tar sands are left in the ground, it is conceivable to stabilize earth’s climate.

Phase out of emissions from coal is itself an enormous challenge. However, if the tar sands are thrown into the mix, it is essentially game over. There is no practical way to capture the CO2 emitted while burning oil, which is used principally in vehicles.

Governments are acting as if they are oblivious to the fact that there is a limit on how much fossil fuel carbon we can put into the air. Fossil fuel carbon injected into the atmosphere will stay in surface reservoirs for millennia. We can extract a fraction of the excess CO2 via improved agricultural and forestry practices, but we cannot get back to a safe CO2 level if all coal is used without carbon capture or if unconventional fossil fuels, like tar sands are exploited.

Energy Forum Posts and Articles

194  Folke Günther  Economists frequently cite Canada’s Athabasca oil sands as a handy replacement for conventional oil.  But oil sands and tar shale are very energy-intensive, environmentally destructive, and not all that large anyway. For example, back-of-the-envelope calculations show that the Athabasca oil sands could supply less than three years’ worth of oil for the global economy. Three hundred billion barrels of oil (AEUB) gushing out of a pipe would only last 12 years at present World consumption of 70 million barrels a day. Oil sands would last just three years if we super-optimistically assume 25 percent net energy for the digging, etc. over the entire resource. “The mining operation involves stripping off the overburden; separating the bitumen with steam, hot water and caustic soda, and then diluting it with naphtha. After centrifuging, liquid bitumen at 80°C is produced, which is then upgraded in a coking process and subjected to other treatments, eventually yielding a light gravity, low sulphur, synthetic oil.” (The Coming Oil Crisis, p. 121, Campbell, 1997)
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201 Brian Fleay  Walter Youngquist in his book Geodestinies says for every three barrels of
oil form Canadian tar sands, energy equivalent to two are consumed producing it.
=====================================================================May 28, 2002.  jean laherrere  Nikiforuk /2001 “The next gas crisis” Canadian Business Aug. 20 estimates that 25% of natural gas produced in Alberta in 2010 will be spent to heat the water used to melt the bitumen of the Athabaska tarsands. The lake gathering the wastes has 22 km of diameter and several meters deep.=====================================================================
Mar 19, 2002  16911  Arthur C. Noll    A few more figures from syncrude: Nearly 450,000 tones of materials, equipment, vessels and plant components traveled the highway to the construction site.
Every 24 hours there is enough metal worn off the mining equipment, by abrasive oil sand, to make two full-size pick-up trucks.

How much energy was expended to make all this stuff and transport it to the site, how much to build and maintain the road?  If all this stuff were to be made and moved with the energy gotten from the oil sands, how much would be left over?  Not forgetting the oil used by the 10,000 workers building the plant, likely a similar number making the parts, and the 5,000 running the place, and the people supporting them.

The abrasion rate is pretty high, and that is only for the mining equipment.  I have to think there is also high erosion of equipment dealing with slurry. They admit themselves that the operating conditions for much of the plant is severe.   The life of the system doesn’t look great, very high maintenance, and it took very large amounts of energy to build it. The energy to build it would have come mostly from “conventional” sources, greatly distorting the cost.

The operation has produced about a billion cubic meters of “tailings”, a sludge estimated to take centuries to solidify on its own.  They are adding gypsum to speed up the process, but guess what that takes?  Mining gypsum somewhere else, transporting it, mixing it in.  More energy… Other ways will also cost energy.

I have to think that they chose a site to start, that had the least amount of overburden to remove, and that other places will have more to remove, at greater energy cost.

I have to have serious doubts about the EROEI on this business, and how long it can be maintained if it is positive for the moment.  Looks to me that they have taken “cheap” conventional fuels and used them to build the system, a typical accounting error when using money.  When conventional fuels get scarcer and cost more money,  oil sand extraction costs will likely go up in step with it.  Much the same as with many “renewable” technologies, that are built and largely maintained with fossil fuel.
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June 29, 2003. David Olive. Fun with Fossil Fuel Figures. What’s behind estimate Alberta’s oil reserves have skyrocketed 3600% to 180 billion barrels?  Toronto Star.

False claims have a lot of potency in this era of dubious war aims and rampant accounting scandals.

So it was only a matter of time before someone asked a few embarrassing questions about Canada’s sudden new status as the world’s most oil-rich nation after Saudi Arabia, and wondered if it was built on illusion.

“Canada Builds Large Oil Estimate on Sand” was the headline on a recent New York Times examination of what the paper described as “highly questionable” methods used in the Calgary oil patch to determine oil reserves.

Late last year, an authoritative industry publication, Oil And Gas Journal, reported the remarkable fact that Canada’s estimated oil reserves had skyrocketed to 180 billion barrels from 5 billion barrels. The increase was entirely from a new calculation of Alberta’s bountiful oil sands.

Somehow Canada had managed that stupendous feat of boosting its oil wealth by 36 times overnight without benefit of any new Hibernias or other elephants — the industry term for gigantic finds.

What the Times has found, it believes, is an outbreak of “paper reserves” up in northern Alberta. In a mere bookkeeping exercise back in 1999, the provincial energy regulator used a calculation of the province’s oil resources that vastly increased Alberta’s reported oil-sands wealth.

And more recently, the oil patch’s leading trade group, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), was successful in encouraging the Oil And Gas Journal to adopt the new figures. To add to the confusion, the CAPP itself hews to a more conservative line, pegging Alberta’s reserves at about 12 billion barrels, saying its methodology differs from others.

This is just what we need, after Canada’s real and perceived equivocation on Iraq, SARS and mad cow disease — another reason for the Americans to distrust us.

And it is the United States that is targeted for Alberta’s boasting. At a time when Washington is newly focused on U.S. energy security, Alberta is pushing hard for consideration as a politically stable alternative to strife-torn oil-producing regions elsewhere.

There’s another factor. Significant cost overruns have plagued many of Alberta’s big oil-sands development projects in recent years. It can’t hurt to obscure the fact of a skilled labour shortage and other contributors to the overruns by touting the staggering immensity of the Athabasca resource — imparting a hoped-for sense of inevitability to its eventual more thorough exploitation.

Actually, the Alberta oil sands is not a story that needs to be oversold. Even after more than $20 billion in oil-sands development since the mid-1990s, another $35 billion-plus worth of oil-sands projects are under way or planned by Imperial Oil Ltd., Shell Canada Ltd., Nexen Inc., Husky Energy Inc., EnCana Corp. and other players.

Oil-sands production now exceeds the output of Alberta’s increasingly depleted conventional oil fields. When it unveiled its completed Athabasca Oil Sands Project earlier this month, Shell Canada projected that at full production, this one project will account for some 10 per cent of Canadian oil consumption.

So why goose the industry reserve numbers, when oil companies themselves, for the sake of credibility with investors, stick to conservative estimates for their own corporate reserves?

The answer has much to do with the continuing ugly duckling status of oil-sands regions in Alberta, Venezuela and elsewhere. The extraction and refining process for bitumen is still gruesomely expensive and temperamental.

Some 30-odd years after Athabasca development began in earnest, operators still struggle with frequent fires and mechanical breakdowns as they learn in fits and starts how to extract oil profitably from the unforgiving muskeg.

Floating a drilling platform off the West African coast, and sipping crude through a straw, is still the preferred, and cheaper, approach of a tradition-bound industry.

Mind you, some day conventional fields will run dry. Large parts of the North Sea are all but played out. Alaska’s fabled Prudhoe Bay is pumping a meagre 440,000 barrels a day, less than a third of its 1987 daily peak of 1.6 million barrels.

As oil giants like ExxonMobil Corp. and ChevronTexaco Corp. venture somewhat fearfully into Chad, the Congo and other civil-war zones to replenish their corporate reserves, the spreadsheet managers in the Calgary oil patch want to hasten the day when the global industry commits itself even more forcefully to a stable region on the doorstep of the world’s most voracious energy consumer.

There’s no shame in that. But fun with figures is not the most seemly tactic.

The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) insists that it is, in fact, the soul of sobriety, that it could tout the truly amazing figure of 1.6 trillion barrels of oil-sands resources it believes could be processed with advances in technology.

But the problem even with the EUB’s “conservative” 180 billion figure is that the vast bulk of those reserves will remain out of reach without an extravagant outlay on state-of-the-art extraction machinery, leading-edge refineries capable of transforming the Athabasca muck into crude, and other “infrastructure.”

What the global industry and all who rely on it desperately need is uniform standards for estimating reserves that are readily available, and also for those requiring currently prohibitive spending on infrastructure.

The latter resources are tied, obviously, to a hike in the world oil price. It’s the play of costs, oil prices, and advances in technology that determine the true status of the resource — a term too often confused, in Canada’s case, with readily accessible reserves.

Actually, that’s par for the course in the global industry, where Saudi Arabia and many other oil-producing nations jealously guard production figures on a field-by-field basis. They don’t want to dissuade potential investors by revealing rates of depletion and other potentially dismal data.

There are consequences from that opacity and the resulting misinformation. The laggard reporting and questionable data that characterizes the industry contributed to the oil-price shock of the late-1970s.

And, conversely, a late-1990s world industry consensus based on false data about a supposed hidden oil glut helped slash the world price by more than half. That triggered the demise of some mid-size producers in Canada and the United States, and the consolidation craze that gave rise to ExxonMobil, BP Amoco Arco (now BP PLC), TotalFinaElf (now Total PLC) and other hulking combinations.

There’s a foreign policy dimension to this, as well.

The U.S. occupation of Iraq puts the United States in a better position to cope with the potential fall of a shaky House of Saud. The Riyadh regime is the “swing state” that controls the world oil price by its judicious changes in Saudi output to counter jarring changes in production elsewhere.

The nightmare scenario for the regime-change strategists in Washington has long been anti-Western extremists taking possession of the world’s largest oil producer.

But to an even greater extent than the confused state of Alberta’s reporting, the actual output and lifespan of the Saudi oil fields are a matter of international conjecture, not fact — a risky basis for geopolitical planning.

In Iraq, meanwhile, the United States is finding that some of the country’s oldest and most prodigious oil fields are far more depleted than outside experts had estimated. These are the same oilfields that are supposed to finance Iraq’s reconstruction.

With the credibility of his province on the line, Alberta Premier Ralph Klein could have staked out some high ground by committing the Calgary oil patch to a leadership role in developing international standards for reserve estimates. Such a bold initiative would put his province in the global industry spotlight for all the right reasons.

But Klein has opted instead to shoot the messenger. Not knowing the value of the unexpressed thought, Klein has blurted that “The New York Times hasn’t been noted for its accuracy lately” — a reference to the paper’s firing of a plagiarizing reporter and the resignation of its two top editors.

That ground was covered by Conan O’Brien several weeks ago. Topic A now is whether Alberta has wilfully misled U.S. energy planners. (The U.S. energy department has also adopted the EUB figures.)

A light bulb seems to have switched on over the heads of some Alberta bureaucrats, if not Klein.

In a National Post essay this week, Neil McCrank, chairman of the EUB, defended the integrity of his agency’s oil reserve estimates. “We stand by our numbers,” he declared.

But the EUB also vows to pursue a previously planned “update” of its controversial accounting with what appears to be unanticipated urgency. A climbdown may be in the offing.

More important, the EUB at least acknowledges the superior merit of accountability over name-calling.

“We need rigorous inquiry to stay focused,” McCrank said of the EUB. “We need to be able to stand up to public scrutiny, Albertans expect no less.”

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August 2, 2003. James Stevenson. Conoco’s Bitumen recovery at risk in northern Alberta.  The Canadian Press

Alberta Energy and Utilities Board chairman Neil McCrank is the author of a report that suggests “there is an immediate and continued risk to bitumen recovery from the production of natural gas from an area of concern within the Athabasca oilsands area.”

Sue Riddell Rose, president of Paramount Resources, says evidence is inconclusive in showing there is interaction between gas reservoirs and nearby oilsands deposits when they are injected with steam.

Massive oilsands deposits in northern Alberta would be rendered inaccessible with current technology if nearby natural gas reserves are removed, energy giant ConocoPhillips said Friday.

Releasing hundreds of pages of previously confidential documents, ConocoPhillips said years of study at its Surmont oilsands pilot project northeast of Edmonton prove steam pressure is not contained by rock layers underground.

And if the gas is removed, the pressure levels would be too low to extract the oilsands feedstock, or bitumen, with existing technology, the company said.

The ConocoPhillips data echoes the belief of Alberta’s energy regulator, which decided last week to shut in 938 gas wells by September to protect the underlying bitumen.

“We can’t rely on shale layers as a seal to keep steam pressure up in the chamber,” said Tom Trowell, manager of ConocoPhillips Surmont project. “And we now know that steam does get around or through these layers to the gas above.”

The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board “believes there is an immediate and continued risk to bitumen recovery from the production of natural gas from an area of concern within the Athabasca oilsands area,” it said in a written ruling released in late July.

The previously confidential ConocoPhillips report has long been sought after by natural gas producers in the area, led by Paramount Resources, which claims that up to half of its production could be affected by the shut-in.

Paramount said Friday that it was waiting to fully review the ConocoPhillips data before commenting.

President Sue Riddell Rose has previously said scientific evidence to date is inconclusive in showing there is interaction between gas reservoirs and nearby oilsands deposits when they are injected with steam.

ConocoPhillips says that isn’t the case. “Anyone who claims that the steam hasn’t reached the gas is being premature,” said company spokesman Peter Hunt.

By releasing its data, the Texas-based oil and gas company runs the risk of getting dragged back into the heated debate between oilsands producers, gas producers and the province of Alberta, which claims it wants to protect the resource for maximum benefits.

ConocoPhillips joins the ranks of other large oilsands producers, like Petro-Canada, in supporting the shut-in of gas production in the area.

Those fighting the order are a variety of gas producers ranging from Paramount and other smaller companies all the way to global giant BP.

The dispute is so heated that anyone not directly involved is loathe to take sides.

“This is kind of a dogfight that we’re not involved in,” Rick George, president of oilsands giant Suncor Energy, told analysts this week.

“And if you’re not involved in a dogfight there’s no reason to go in one.”

The shut-in affects about 90 billion cubic feet of gas, or about two per cent of Alberta’s remaining reserves. Conversely, the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board says the amount of bitumen in the area is about 600 times larger.

ConocoPhillips says its Surmont lease alone is roughly the size of the city of Calgary, with an estimated average bitumen thickness of a 10-story building.

The company also says that if Alberta hadn’t ordered the shut-in of wells on the Surmont release back in 2000, its pilot plant would not have been as successful as it has been.

As a result, ConocoPhillips, along with partners TotalFinaElf and Devon Energy, are poised to make a go-ahead decision on a Surmont megaproject before the end of this year that would cost about $1 billion and produce around 100,000 barrels per day by 2014.

Following a meeting this week with all affected companies, Alberta’s energy regulator ordered a regional geological study — to be completed by December — in order to closely assess which gas pools in the area are in close contact with bitumen deposits.

Alberta’s energy department has also begun meetings on the issue, looking at possible compensation for affected gas producers. Paramount has warned that this could end up costing the province hundreds of millions of dollars.

Greg Stringham, vice-president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, says the geological study is crucial in determining the full impacts of the shut-in.

And Stringham said there are a number of other tests continuing from companies like giant EnCana Corp. looking at repressuring reservoirs with waste gas or even putting pumps at the bottom of the well to pump up the bitumen.

“I think that’s where the real answer to this dilemma lies, it’s not in the back and forth between the companies, it’s how do we apply technology so that both of the concerns can be resolved

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Dec 7, 2003. Nelson Antosh. Recovering Canada’s oil takes more mining than pumping.  Houston Chronicle

Conocophillips is heading a trio of companies that will spend $1.1 billion developing an oil deposit in Canada on par with the largest fields ever found in Texas.

At 5 billion barrels recoverable, the Surmont project south of Fort McMurray in Alberta can be likened to the giant East Texas field that has produced 5.2 billion barrels since its discovery in 1930.

In today’s thoroughly searched United States, a billion barrels is considered a giant field.

But finding Surmont wasn’t the hard part, because the oil sands in some regions of Alberta are so shallow they can be discovered with one’s shoe.

The challenge involves getting the oil out of what may be the world’s largest deposit of petroleum because it is mixed with sand and as nearly as thick as tar. As companies show oil can be produced there at reasonable prices, the amount of reserves associated with oil sands zoom upward.

The Oil and Gas Journal, for instance, in its last survey gave Canada 180 billion barrels in reserves, up from less than 5 billion barrels the year before. Such recognition of proven reserves “is clearly leading to a fresh wave of interest,” says Peter Hunt, the public affairs manager for ConocoPhillips Canada in Calgary.

The company’s Surmont lease covers a land area about one-fourth the size of the city of Houston, containing an underground oil formation as thick as a 10-story office building is tall. This oil-soaked sand is located below a rolling forest of spruce and fir in northern Alberta.

The Alberta Department of Energy likes to say that the western province has more oil than Saudi Arabia and is important to the United States because Canada is an area of political stability, unlike parts of the Middle East.

But oil sand production got off to a slow start. It is just in recent years that it is moving toward full-tilt development. Billions are being invested, and the big players like Exxon Mobil and Shell are involved.

ConocoPhillips considers Surmont to be a legacy project, which means it costs a lot of money initially but will be around for a long time, in this case 40 to 50 years.

It this works out, there’s plenty more waiting to be produced. The amount of oil considered recoverable from Canada’s oil sands with current technology ranges from 177 billion to a whopping 300 billion barrels, depending upon which definition and figures you use.

Bigger is better

The difficulty with oil sands, ever since mining began in 1967, has been getting it out at a low-enough cost. Suncor Energy of Calgary, the pioneer, said the key was developing technology, which in this case means bigger and bigger equipment. Its trucks are capable of carrying up to 400 tons at a time.

The oil between the grains of sand is almost as thick as tar, putting it in the category of bitumen: naturally occurring solid or liquid hydrocarbons. In the summer it is soft and glistens like asphalt on a hot summer day (also a bitumen), but in the Canadian winter it turns into chunks almost as hard as rock.

Before the bitumen is usable, it must be run through a refinery unit, typically a high-temperature piece of equipment called a delayed coker, to give it the thinner consistency of crude oil. Suncor uses a delayed coker 10 times larger than those typically found along the Gulf Coast to process the finds.

The earliest recovery tactic, and still the biggest, is to mine the sand and extract the oil with hot water, according to Suncor, which has been doing it this way since 1967.

The oily sand is placed in settling tanks of 180 degree water, where the oil is floated off the top and the sand settles to the bottom. Then the extra-heavy oil must be processed through the coker.

It takes about two tons of sand to produce one barrel of oil, the company says. Currently it is handling 450,000 tons per day to produce 225,000 barrels of oil. About 92 percent of the oil in the sands is actually recovered.

Using the open-pit method, Suncor has extracted nearly 1 billion barrels. The company calculates that it is sitting on 13 billion recoverable barrels.

Two-well method

More recently, Suncor and operators like ConocoPhillips are looking to other methods to tap reserves buried too deep to dig out.

This method is to drill wells and inject steam, leaving the sand in place while pumping out the oil in a more conventional fashion. Called in-situ, this tactic promises being able to reach the 85 to 90 percent of sand deemed too deep to mine.

With the help of its in-situ project called Firebag, Suncor expects to more than double its output by 2010 or 2012. It plans to be cranking out 500,000 to 550,000 barrels per day by then.

ConocoPhillips’ project will borrow from the latest oil exploration technology to develop Surmont, by using three-dimensional seismic imaging to precisely map the underground formation and drilling horizontally to get at the oil.

Suncor’s production costs have been going down, to about $8 in operating expenses per barrel, President and Chief Executive Rick George said during a recent visit to Houston.

One reason is that there aren’t finding costs, said George. The company’s vision is to move the cost curve downward to about $6 per barrel, which would make it one of North America’s lowest-cost producers.

Moody’s Investors Service recently changed Suncor’s rating outlook from negative to stable, on the basis that the company’s cash operating costs will continue on a lower trend in the near to medium term.

The oil sands cost compares with the five-year average finding and development cost in the United States, which was $8.19 per barrel from 1998 through 2002, according to Nicholas Caccione, director of research for John S. Herold Inc.

The ConocoPhillips group isn’t disclosing its expected costs per barrel, other than saying it should be roughly comparable to the mining method.

But there are also environmental costs that could be considerable: surface mines, rows of settling ponds, clusters of large refinery equipment and fragmentation of a northern forest.

Some people are wondering how all of this energy-intensive activity will fit with Canada’s ratification of the Kyoto Accord to limit the emission of greenhouse gases.

However, the government has given oil sand companies some assurance they won’t be stymied by costs connected with limits on carbon dioxide emissions, said to cause global warming, which could make the projects uneconomical.

In the short term, the government has placed a cap on the price of the credits in Canada that may have to be purchased to allow them to emit so much carbon dioxide, said Hunt and Suncor’s CEO, Rick George.

Others are more concerned. The chief of Petro-Canada, Ron Brenneman, told Bloomberg News after a Nov. 24 speech in Montreal that the Kyoto deadline was too short and the implementation plan was too prescriptive. “It’s so restrictive that, as we see it, the only alternative is to buy emissions credits from outside the country,” said the CEO of one of Canada’s largest oil companies, which also has an oil sands project.

100 pairs of wells

There were years of study before the mid-November go-ahead announcement by Houston-based ConocoPhillips, the French company Total and Devon Energy of Oklahoma City.

A pilot program has been running since 1997 to make sure everything works before committing serious money. Conoco came into the picture when it acquired a company named Gulf Canada in 2000.

The plan is to drill about 100 pairs of horizontal wells, which will take production to more than 100,000 barrels of oil per day by 2012, said Hunt. The first production will occur in 2006.

The wells are in pairs, with the top well directly above the bottom well. Steam will be pumped into the upper well to melt the bitumen, said Hunt, so it can seep downward through the sand to be collected by the bottom well. The technology is called steam-assisted gravity drainage.

Horizontal drilling allows the drill bit to travel downward in conventional fashion, then steer horizontally for an extended distance with great precision.

The Surmont wells will be drilled to an average depth of about 1,200 feet before turning horizontal, which is considerably below the 100 to 150 feet that is considered suitable for surface mining.

Eventually a steam cavern will form around the upper well.

This is where 3-D seismic comes into play. You wouldn’t want a layer of something like rock stretching across what is supposed to be a cavern, said Hunt. “What really matters is understanding the geology, so you can drill in the best places.”

ConocoPhillips plans to lessen the environmental impact by using water from deep wells, rather than the river, and sharing roads with a company that is actively logging there.

Rather than build a coker for upgrading the bitumen, ConocoPhillips is considering moving it via pipeline to existing refineries in Wood River, Ill., and Billings, Mont. It could be diluted with some lighter products to the point that it will flow, Hunt said.

Negotiations with the pipeline owners are in progress.

=========================================July 2004. Brendan I. Koerner. The Trillion-Barrel Tar Pit Who needs “oil independence” – our friendly neighbor to the north is sitting on a black gold mine! Wired issue 12.07

http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.07/oil.html?pg=1&topic=oil&topic_set=

Fort McMurray, Alberta, is an unlikely destination for a congressional boondoggle, especially when cold snaps of 40 below make it dangerous to leave any patch of skin uncovered. But here I am in midwinter, 250 miles north of Edmonton, watching a flock of Washington politicians in subzero parkas cling to tour guides like a trail of oversize ducklings. With gas prices approaching $3 a gallon in some states, the US representatives are braving the frigid air not for adventure but to learn about a filthy sort of alchemy, one that turns sludgy, sticky earth into sweet crude oil.

Alberta sits atop the biggest petroleum deposit outside the Arabian peninsula – as many as 300 billion recoverable barrels and another trillion-plus barrels that could one day be within reach using new retrieval methods. (By contrast, the entire Middle East holds an estimated 685 billion barrels that are recoverable.) But there’s a catch. Alberta‘s black gold isn’t the stuff that geysered up from Jed Clampett’s backyard. It’s more like a mix of Silly Putty and coffee grounds – think of the tar patties that stick to the bottom of your sandals at the beach – and it’s trapped beneath hundreds of feet of clay and rock.

This petroleum dreck is known in these parts as heavy oil, and wildcatters are determined to get it out of the ground and into a pipeline. If they succeed, the stereotypical oil zillionaire may be not an Arabian emir but a folksy Albertan fond of ending sentences in a question, eh? Like Jim Carter, president of Canada’s largest oil company, Syncrude. A coal-mine foreman by trade, Carter talks as if he just got out of a cut-rate business seminar, spewing jargon like “going-forward basis” and “continuous-improvement mindset.” He’s the kind of guy who straps a snowplow on his John Deere mower and clears the streets just for fun. But he clawed his way out of the pits to a corner office, and now he has a plan to make Canada’s oil reserves pay off.

Heavy oil isn’t a new discovery. Native Americans have used it to caulk their canoes for centuries. Until recently, though, it’s been the energy industry’s stepchild – ugly, dirty, and hard to refine. But the political winds are favoring the heavy stuff, as “energy independence” – aka freedom from relying on Middle East oil – has become a war-on-terror buzz-phrase. Even President Bush has waxed optimistic about Alberta’s “tar pits.”

Better yet, recent improvements in mining and extraction techniques have cut heavy oil production costs nearly in half since the 1980s, to about $10 per barrel, with more innovation on the way. The petroleum industry is spending billions on new methods to get at the estimated 6 trillion barrels of heavy oil worldwide – nearly half the earth’s entire oil reserve. Last year, Shell and ChevronTexaco jointly opened the $5.7 billion Athabasca Oil Sands Project in Alberta, which pumps out 155,000 barrels per day. Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt yields 500,000 barrels daily, and that number should spike when a new ChevronTexaco plant goes online this year.

The trailblazer in heavy oil is Syncrude, a joint venture among eight US and Canadian energy companies, which has been harvesting greasy sand since 1978. Last year, the company shipped 77 million barrels of its trademark product, Syncrude Sweet Blend, mostly to US refineries. That’s 14 percent of all Canadian oil sales, company executives boast – enough to produce 1.5 billion gallons of gasoline.

Chalk up the impressive output to Syncrude’s efficiency. Carter and his team like to present themselves as roughnecks, but they run the company like bookish software engineers. Their oil mines – noisy and grimy and often reeking of sulfur – operate with the high tech prowess of a Taiwanese factory churning out LCDs.

The Caterpillar 797 dump truck is a true monster – 48 feet from tip to tail and 22 feet high, it creeps uphill with a 400-ton payload at 1 mile per hour. Syncrude owns 36 of the vehicles, which cost $5 million each. This herd of yellow pachyderms lumbers around the company’s open-pit mines, shuttling oil sands from the digging shovels to a massive processing facility called a crusher. The inside of the crusher resembles the guts of the Nostromo, the doomed ore-hauling ship in Alien. Whale-sized pipes and narrow catwalks crisscross everywhere; steam billows from hoses that snake along the floor. Here the sands are pulverized, then sent to cyclofeeders to be mixed with hot water and pumped to gargantuan centrifuges where the oil-rich component, bitumen, is separated out. The bitumen is sent to giant cokers and roasted with hydrogen into Syncrude Sweet Blend.

It’s a laborious process, to say the least – 2 tons of sand yields just one barrel of oil – but nowhere near as painstaking as it used to be. In the 1920s, Karl Clark, a University of Alberta chemist, discovered that steam could tease pitch out of sand. His breakthrough piqued Big Oil’s interest, but no one could make the process cost-effective. In the 1950s, a few desperate hopefuls suggested detonating a subterranean nuclear bomb to blast the gunk to the surface. When Syncrude started, it relied on draglines, huge cranelike devices weighing more than 15 full 747s. Attached to these $100 million machines were enormous buckets; the draglines would scrape the buckets across the earth to scoop up huge chunks of sand – a tough process to coordinate come winter.

The murderous climate caused untold headaches. The conveyor belts that carried oil sands from dragline to processing plant were prone to cracking. Whenever the cokers got clogged with calcified soot, Syncrude had to shut down for a week and send in cleaners with sledgehammers – “the kind of job that makes you thankful you have an education,” quips Mark Sherman, who now manages the company’s cokers.

When an OPEC glut sent oil prices skidding to $10 a barrel in 1985, Syncrude was losing $5 to $10 on every barrel of synthetic crude it produced. Only savage staff cuts staved off complete ruin. Nearly a decade later, Syncrude began to get creative. In 1994, the executives opened an R&D lab in Edmonton and started spending $30 million a year to devise increasingly efficient extraction methods. They ditched the draglines for more agile trucks and shovels and replaced some of the conveyor belts with hydrotransport, a method in which crushed sand is mixed with hot water into a pipeline-ready slurry.

As new information technologies became available in the ’90s, Syncrude moved to further streamline its operations. Today, miles of fiber-optic cable snake between the company’s ore crushers, shovels, and pipes. Operations are supervised from the heated comfort of computerized control centers, where truck dispatchers use GPS to ensure that the Caterpillars proceed like clockwork. A homegrown computer program keeps tabs on each $35,000 13-foot-tall truck tire, as cold tires are prone to cracks. X-ray sensors on the hydrotransport pipes scan for leaks, and ultrasonic transmitters verify that the crushers are never quite empty, lest their metal teeth mash against each other and cause damage.

Carter doesn’t think Syncrude’s costs are low enough yet. For starters, the company spends more than $100 million a year on natural gas to heat the facilities and fuel the hydrotransport system. Then there’s the cost of maintaining the monster trucks. Carter says replacing the trucks with mobile crushers – currently in development at the Edmonton center – could save $1.50 per barrel.

Cutting expenses is always good, but the real payoff for Syncrude will come if its R&D lab can find a way to get at the trillion barrels of oil that currently lie so far below ground that they are beyond the industry’s grasp. All the heavy oil companies are experimenting with new methods that will allow them to go deeper. One possible solution comes in the form of a process known as steam-assisted gravity drainage. In SAG-D, steam is forced through a well into the subterranean oil sands, melting them and separating the bitumen. The oily parts then seep into a second well and rise to the surface. At least a dozen SAG-D projects are under way, the most successful of which, operated by Imperial Oil, is producing 116,000 barrels per day. The problem is that creating the steam requires a lot of energy. A less energy-intensive alternative: vapor-assisted petroleum extraction, a technology that injects gaseous hydrocarbons into the earth. When the heavy oil surfaces, the hydrocarbons are stripped off and recycled. One company, Canada’s Petrobank, is experimenting with an air injection method that blasts out the bitumen with compressed air. There’s also been some renewed interest in nuclear energy – not in the form of a bomb, but as a way to generate necessary steam.

No one’s suggesting that Alberta’s version of beach tar will wean us off Middle East oil anytime soon. After all, it took Syncrude two decades to bring production costs down to $10 per barrel. And that’s still more than triple the cost of producing Saudi Arabian crude, which is so light that it requires much less refining. “Some of it is so good, you can put it right in your car,” says Michael Economides, a chemical engineer at the University of Houston and a consultant to the Russian oil giant Yukos. By contrast, Economides says the heavy oil that Syncrude mines is “shit.”

On my last day in Fort McMurray, I bum a ride with Eric Newell, who recently retired as Syncrude’s CEO. He’s particularly excited about the congressional visit. He recalls a 1996 trip to Washington, DC; he’d been invited to the Canadian embassy to preach the virtues of heavy oil. The audience of US senators, Goldman Sachs bankers, and assorted other bigwigs seemed more interested in their meals than his speech.

What a difference a war makes. These days, Congress is considering a $3 per-barrel tax credit to companies that import heavy oil from north of the border. So forget those scraps over prescription drug prices and trade policy – Canada has never looked like such a pal. The friendly relationship is a none-too-subtle part of Jim Carter’s Syncrude pitch: “Our American neighbors know what Canada’s like. It’s a good, stable country.”

And chock-full of tar patties.

Tapping the Oil Sands of Alberta

The biggest petroleum reserve outside Arabia lies beneath Canada in the form of heavy oil. Here’s how Syncrude is priming the pump.

1)      Syncrude shovels excavate thousands of tons of soil and clay, creating a 150-foot pit for mining the oil sands below.

2)      Oil sand is piled high into monster Caterpillar trucks, capable of carrying 400 tons at a time.

3)      The trucks dump their payload into crushers, which grind it down to fine oil-coated grains.

4)      The sand is transferred via conveyor to a cyclofeeder, where it’s mixed with hot water to produce a slurry. The slurry flows to the extraction facility, where large centrifuges separate out the oil-rich bitumen.

5)      Bitumen flows to cokers, where it’s heated to remove impurities such as sulfur and nitrogen, leaving only usable crude oil.

6)      The crude is sold to off-site refineries, which produce gasoline.

============================================

Feb 09, 2005. Angel Gonzalez.  Indus Exec Says Oil-Sands Output Vulnerable To Bottlenecks. Dow Jones Newswires.CALGARY–Analysts expect Canada’s oil-sands output to double to 2 million barrels of synthetic crude a day by the end of the decade, but an industry executive warned Wednesday that this capital- and labor-intensive production is extremely vulnerable to bottlenecks in the upgrading process.

Synenco Energy Inc. Executive Chairman Michael Supple said that when upgrading relies on a single train of production, “the failure of a $5 or $10 widget would shut the whole thing down.” He was speaking at an oil-sands conference in Calgary.

Synenco owns extensive oil-sands mining permits and coal leases in the Fort McMurray area of northeastern Alberta.

Supple, a former oil-sands manager for Suncor Energy Inc. (SU), alluded to a recent fire at the company’s oil-sands facility in Fort McMurray, which shut in half of the facility’s normal production of 225,000 barrels of synthetic crude a day until the third quarter of 2005.

The neighboring Syncrude Canada Ltd. facility also announced a shut-in of 65,000 barrels of oil a day for the remainder of the first quarter due to a maintenance failure at one of its hydrogen plants Jan. 31.

Supple recommended producers not put all of their eggs in one basket, and instead set up independent and multiple production avenues.

Suncor spokesman Brad Bellows said oil-sands production is vulnerable because the tar-like bitumen must be upgraded into lighter products more attractive to refiners.

“People forget how much we are a manufacturing operation,” Bellows said at the conference.

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jan 22, 2006. Comment from: Alberta oil sands on 60 minutes.
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/01/20/60minutes/main1225184.shtml

The introduction to the piece said that oil sands would provide plenty of oil for us for the next hundred years.  What rubbish!  The truth was hidden later in the piece – it’s all in the numbers:
Current oil use worldwide: 84mbl/day.  Projected for 2015: 105mbl/day.
Current oil sands production: 1mbl/day.  Projected for 2015: 3mbl/day.
This is going to “solve our problem”???
And I don’t recall that they even mentioned that, most of the year, they have to use massive quantities of natural gas to melt the crap enough to be able to scoop it out of the ground.  And natural gas is running down quickly in North America.
By the way, those giant trucks (“toys”) use over 100 gallons of diesel fuel per hour.  Not good for yer EROEI…

=================================

Dec 05, 2005. Oil sands. Are oil sands the answer to peak oil? Econbrowser.

They’ll help some, to be sure. But they’re not a reason to ignore the issue.

Green Car Congress provides a nice summary of what this energy source involves:

Oil sands are a mixture of sand, clay, water and deposits of bitumen– a very viscous form of oil that must be rigorously treated in order to convert it into an upgraded crude oil before it can be used in refineries to produce gasoline and other fuels. (Oil sands used to be called tar sands, to give you a sense of it.) The ratio of bitumen to everything else is relatively small: 10%-12%.

The bitumen contained in the oil sands is characterized by high densities, very high viscosities, high metal concentrations, high amounts of sulfur and a high ratio of carbon to hydrogen molecules. With a density range of 970 to 1,015 kilograms per cubic meter (8-14o API), and a viscosity at room temperature typically greater than 50,000 centipose, bitumen is a thick, black, tar-like substance that pours extremely slowly.

One of the reasons for interest in oil sands is the potential magnitudes involved. The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board estimates the ultimate volume of Canadian bitumen in-place at 2.5 trillion barrels, which if it could somehow all be extracted would be enough to satisfy by itself the entire world petroleum demand at current rates for 80 years. Even if only a tiny fraction of this proves ultimately to be developed, this would be a very important resource indeed.

Nor is the exploitation of this resource merely a theoretical possibility. Almost 40% of Canada’s current crude oil production of 2.6 million barrels per day is derived from oil sands. About 1/3 of current production is from in situ methods, in which the oil sands are heated while still underground, and 2/3 from open-pit mining and above-ground processing.
Suncor Energy Inc., Fort McMurray, Alberta syncrude_plant.jpg

So what’s the catch? Huge capital requirements, for one. $34 billion (Canadian) have been invested so far in Canadian oil sands just to get to current levels, and an additional $36 billion (US) might bring Canadian bitumen production up to 2.7 mbd by 2015. To put that number in perspective, significantly more than 2.7 mbd in new capacity has to be added every year in order to replace the production that is lost from each year’s depletion of existing conventional oil fields. Moreover, a large amount of energy input is required in order to produce each barrel of bitumen.

There are also significant capital requirements in order to use this synthetic crude on a larger scale. Green Car Congress had a very interesting summary last week of a report from Natural Resources Canada about Canadian oil sands:

These crude oils, whether shipped as unprocessed bitumen or in upgraded form as synthetic crude have different characteristics from conventional light and heavy crudes, and their introduction as a major proportion of the refinery crude diet will present challenges.

Most conventional refineries are limited to using about 10-15% of synthetic oil sands crude in their diets before fuels quality limitations begin to appear, according to the report.

The challenges to utilizing these crudes include the need for more “severe” processes to refine the heavy synthetic crude to duplicate fuel characteristics to which engines have become accustomed. The technology to overcome these differences is largely known, but requires significant lead-time to install.

Environmental issues are another big concern. Oil sands do not seem to involve as severe disruption as oil shale, though many of the concerns are similar. Green Car Congress summarized some of the issues about oil sands raised by the Pembina Institute, an environmental group based in Alberta, Canada. Perhaps the hardest to avoid is the increased emission of greenhouse gases, the issue that ultimately killed Australia’s demonstration oil shale project.

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23 Sep 2006. . Murray Whyte. At what price progress? Toronto Star.

Fort McKay, Alta.-From its source at the ancient glacier that bears
its name, the Athabasca River tumbles down from the Rocky Mountains
in Jasper and into the valley it has carved over the millennia, its
icy waters rushing east and north through the foothills and high
Alberta plains. Then, 400 kilometres into its journey, it curls due
north, where the flatlands give way to the swath of Canadian Shield
that spills east from Ontario and buckles the prairie with rock and
centuries-old boreal forest.

Just past halfway on its journey north to Lake Athabasca, the river
rushes through the most rapidly-industrializing place on Earth: the
oil sands.

It is here where the river, with its bounty of glacial water, bound
for the muskegs and fens of the Athabasca delta, crashes into the
very modern priorities of the new West: the stampede for wealth. And
it is the river’s bounty that makes it all possible.

Along the river’s edge, existing oil-sands operations and approved
developments soon to follow have been granted licences to siphon 349
million cubic metres of the river’s flow each year – roughly the
amount of water used by Calgary and Edmonton annually combined – to
extract heavy crude oil from the black muck that holds it. Including
other projects awaiting approval, that allocation swells to 529
million cubic metres. “I don’t think anybody who thinks about this
realistically can believe it’s sustainable,” says David Schindler,
the pre-eminent scholar on ecological policy and hydrology at the
University of Alberta.

Schindler has participated in several public hearings, preaching
prudence and moderation in the oil sands’ growth to mediate the
impact. His 30-year study on the river’s flow level shows a
disquieting trend: a decline in volume of 30 per cent over that span.
And the river’s banks have receded by nearly two metres over that
time.

But industry’s demand for the water will only grow. To free the crude
oil, as many as 4 1/2 barrels of water are needed to yield a single
barrel of oil. The leftover petrochemical brew, too toxic to be
returned to the river, accumulates in tailing ponds with a combined
surface area of 50 square kilometres, visible from space, that have
been growing for decades.

Operators like Suncor and Syncrude, oil sands pioneers, have learned
to do more with less, recycling water and taking only a portion of
what their licences permit.

But that’s as much a result of necessity as it is conservation: In
1995, the National Oil Sands Task Force laid out a growth plan to
reach 1 million barrels per day by 2020. That target has already been
passed: The oil sands today produces 1.2 million barrels every day.

As new projects come online, according to the task force, that number
will triple in 15 years, and grow fivefold in 25. Estimates put the
known reserves at close to 179 billion barrels – second-largest on
Earth, after Saudi Arabia.

About $20 billion worth of investment in extraction was expected by
2020; it’s already there.

In the next 10 years, oil companies from Europe, India, China and the
U.S., will spend another $70 billion digging up the oily black
ground. An open pit nearly 3,000 square kilometres in size will grow,
swallowing streams, wetlands and boreal forest, razing habitat for
fish, birds and woodland caribou.

That dimension is, literally, only the surface. The proportion of oil sands accessible from ground level is less than 10 per cent. The rest of the bitumen – the term for the oil-saturated muck – is deep underground. Companies have a number of methods to extract it, like injecting superheated oxygen or steam as deep as 300 metres below to boil the oil free.

Meanwhile, on the surface, millions of cubic metres of river water, thick with toxic by-products like naphthenic acid, bubble and build in the ponds, never to be returned. According to the U.S. Department of the Interior, Syncrude’s dam, which holds back nearly three decades of waste water, is the second-largest on Earth after the Three Gorges Dam in China.

“If any one of those were ever to breach and discharge into the river, you’re talking about a world-scale ecological disaster,” Schindler says.

For some, the ecological disaster has already begun.

Two hundred kilometres downriver, where the river empties into Lake Athabasca, sits the hamlet of Fort Chipewyan. It is, at first glance, pristine, the landscape thick with boreal forests and wetlands veined with rivers and creeks that pool into a network of lakes and swampy muskegs that nourish hundreds of species

Here, at the river’s end, the Mikisew Cree have hunted and fished for centuries, living on what the river brought from upstream.

They don’t do that much anymore. Fort Chipewyan has been hit hard in the last 30 years. First, the Bennett dam choked off the Peace River to the west. Water levels in the lake dropped by as much as three metres.

“And you’re talking about a 200-mile-long lake. That’s a lot of water,” says Archie Waquan, a former Mikisew chief. Near sunset, he drives along the community’s single paved road that runs along the shore.

But the water’s edge is further now, a 50-metre stretch of bulrushes and long grass from where he pulls over to look.

“In the ’60s, we’d land our boats right here,” he says, standing on a grassy patch. “Now, it’s just land. How much more water can they take out of that river system before it’s damaged permanently?”

This is not the worst of it.

In 2001, the town’s fly-in doctor, John O’Connor, started noticing a proliferation of a rare cancer of the bile duct found, statistically, in 1 out of 100,000 people. In Fort Chipewyan, with 1,200 people, he found five.

For some, it was further confirmation of what they’d already seen. Fish, a source of food and employment, had started appearing with bizarre mutations – enlarged heads, scrawny bodies. There were reports of jackfish oozing a milky, pus-like substance. After generations of drinking straight from the lake, many here now drink only bottled water, trucked or flown in from hundreds of kilometres away.

The Alberta Cancer Board launched an investigation, and concluded earlier this month that the incidence of cancer was no greater than normal.

Then, another recent scare, when Suncor, as part of its environmental impact assessment for an expansion application earlier this year, investigated the potential for seepage along the river of arsenic, a potent carcinogen, from the plants. The Alberta government is evaluating moose meat and cattails in the Fort Chipewyan region for arsenic content, trying to determine its source.

Waquan doesn’t need to hear the results to draw conclusions. “We never had cancer on this river before,” he says. “It’s got to be coming from somewhere, right? And it’s got to be those oil sands plants.”

The industry flatly denies the implication.

“Those ponds are there to recycle water. And those are engineered dams,” says David Pryce, vice-president, Western Canada operations, for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. “The risk of contaminants leaking into the water table is, frankly, negligible.”

Others, like Schindler, are not so convinced. The industry releases hundreds of compounds, most of them unidentifiable, he says. Of those that are, naphthenic acid and toxic trace metals register high on the hydrocarbon analysis.

“It’s sort of a witches’ brew of things,” he says. “The oil sands have greatly accelerated the release of those things.”

But of paramount concern to Schindler is the uncertainty. For much of the 20th century, the oil sands was deemed too costly to be worth the price of extraction. That changed in recent years, as technology improved and world oil prices shot up to $40, $50 and even $70 a barrel, pushing its development into fast forward.

The relatively short time frame means no real long-term data exists to determine cause and source.

Alberta’s environment minister, Guy Boutilier, says he’s “comfortable with the framework we have for the Athabasca.” But Schindler calls it “an old Alberta trick: If you don’t have data, you can’t say there’s a problem.”

In Fort McMurray, the oil sands frenzy has doubled its population, from 30,000 in 1996 to 64,000. It’s both blessing and curse.

A labour shortage has driven wages to unprecedented heights – $100,000-plus for driving a truck. But housing shortages, an overburdened health system, and increasing social ills – homelessness, drug use, alcoholism – are the costs.

On a bad day, the source of it all hits home: A sour stench from the refineries, spewing sulfur and carbon dioxide, that cloaks the bustling downtown in a throat-burning shroud.

In just a few years, the Fort McMurray area has become the largest source of carbon dioxide emissions in Canada. By 2015, it’s estimated the town – projected population 100,000 – will emit more greenhouse gases than the entire nation of Denmark, population 5.4 million.

The development is creating vast wealth in the province, both for individuals and governments. In 1998, the provincial government, through its oil sands royalty program, collected $197 million. Next year, that figure will be $1.7 billion.

But many have started to wonder at what cost. A government proposal last year to prioritize oil sands development over all other issues in the north – education, health care, environment – was met with such a public backlash that it was scrapped. As a result, the province has been conducting public consultations across the province all month.

The most recent were in Fort McMurray this week. Boutilier, a former Fort McMurray mayor, was there. He provided a sense of the shifting priorities: During the hearings for Suncor’s expansion recently, Boutilier broke rank with his development friendly government by preaching prudence in the oil sands’ rapid expansion.

“I actually talked about a delicate balance,” Boutilier says. “I talked about sustaining the environment for our grandchildren.”

But many wonder if this is just simple public relations, fuelled by the public backlash.

“I think a lot of Albertans are saying, `okay, do we have enough in

place for the development to take place in the public interest?'” says Dan Woynillowicz, a senior policy analyst with the Pembina Institute, an environmental think tank. “And I think a growing number would say no.”

His organization has suggested a moratorium on new approvals until further environmental research can be completed.

`I don’t think anybody who thinks about this realistically can believe it’s sustainable’

David Schindler, University of Alberta

Even former premier Peter Lougheed, an Alberta icon, recently called the oil-sands development “a mess.” And yet, there is no slowing down.

But industry and the government are sensitive to the growing public concerns.

“By no means does a company come to us and walk away with an approval,” says Darin Barter, a spokesperson for the Alberta Energy Utilities Board. “The gold rush mentality you keep hearing about isn’t really occurring.”

Pryce says companies were striving to be “ultra-conservative” in their impacts. “There’s some angst from all parties on this, frankly. But companies are becoming more efficient all the time.”

He warns that a moratorium could stifle the boom. “There are huge investment decisions that hinge on this,” he says. “The Crown is challenged with managing the resource, without scaring off investors.”

That investment is double edged, as the people of Fort McKay know all too well.

Fort McKay, a tiny first nations community of about 500 people dead-centre of all the development, is at the crux of the issue for all aboriginals.

Things have changed here, says Stan Laurent, whose business, Fort McKay Enterprises, supplies support services to the industry. The community has near full employment. All the roads, for the first time, are paved. A new timber-frame complex, which serves as the tribal council’s chambers as well as offices for the Fort McKay group of companies, sits at the river’s edge.

“When you’re smack-dab in the middle of $100 billion worth of development, the community should reflect that,” Laurent says. Fort McKay is a big participant in the development, with plans to start its own mine in partnership with Shell. The natives’ traditional territories are rich in oil. At the roadside, long grasses grow out of the black muck, clearly visible on the surface. As a result, they’ve become one of the wealthiest bands in North America.

Every day, though, the stink of sulfur fills the air. “We’ll be wearing gas masks in a few years,” says Laurent’s wife, Cheryl.

And the lands where the people of Fort McKay have hunted and trapped for millennia are all but gone. “Eight or nine years ago, we would just go out our back doors and be in the bush,” Laurent says. “Now, you sit outside at night, and you can hear it – the heavy haulers, the refineries. That’s just daily life.”

Laurent knows that wealth comes at a cost.

“We can’t just sit here and say, `you can’t do this, you can’t do that,’ and then sit back and expect to benefit from it. If we do that, we’ll be losers as a First Nation,” he says. “We have to move on. There’s not going to be another boat like this one coming through here, and it’s already sailing away. This is our chance to make sure our future is set.”

The lands, most acknowledge, are gone, and for good. Companies have reclaimed abut 5,200 hectares of land by filling in expended pits, creating grasslands and nascent forests; so far, not one hectare has been approved by the province as certified reclamation.

While many companies say they can put the land back exactly as they found it, Schindler calls the claim to rebuild centuries-old muskegs and fens “total nonsense. Wetlands experts from all over the world know there’s no way to put it back, period.”

Cecilia Fitzpatrick, a tribal council member in Fort McKay, acknowledges it’s a steep price to pay. But she also accepts the reality.

“We’ll never go back to a traditional way of life,” she says, seated in an office as slick and modern as any in the corporate canyons of Toronto.

Fitzpatrick grew up in the woods hunting and trapping with her parents. From her office, it’s a short walk to the banks of the river, which she remembers as much higher, much clearer, more blue.

“I wish we could live in a bubble,” she says. “But we can’t. We could sit and watch, and be poor. You can’t fight it, but you can profit from it.

 

“When all is said and done, and all this is gone, we’ll still be
here,” she says. “We need to make sure we’re looked after.”

Schindler believes that vision to be more dream than reality.

“This will be a visible scar on the planet 1,000 years from now,” he
says. “Really, what we should be doing is slowing down. But we’re not.

“We’re making a mess we may never truly be able to clean up.”

=========================================================

Oct 7, 2006. Steve Hargreaves. Curing oil sands fever Despite wide-eyed predictions, serious constraints remain in developing Alberta’s heavy oil.

EW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — The answer to America’s oil addiction lies in Canada.

Or so goes one line of thinking. As oil supplies got tighter and crude prices soared over the last few years, tens of billions of dollars flowed into an effort to develop the biggest oil reserve outside Saudi Arabia: Alberta’s oil sands.

Along with the development rush have come rosy predictions on how much this secure, close, proven supply of oil might yield. Four million, 6 million, even 10 million barrels a day, which is nearly half America’s total daily consumption and would easily replace all imports from the Middle East.

The only thing is, those numbers may be far too high.

Making a barrel of clean, light crude from the thick, dirty oil sand uses massive amounts of water, massive amounts of electricity and requires a large pool of labor in an otherwise sparsely populated area.

“People jump to the assumption that we can immediately ramp up to 9 million barrels per day and save the world,” said Peter Tertzakian, chief energy economist at ARC Financial, a Calgary-based private equity firm. “But it’s just not going to happen.” Stuck in the sand

This isn’t to say the oil sands won’t be a viable energy source. Two hundred miles north of Edmonton, covering an area roughly the size of Florida, they already produce more than 1 million barrels a day.

U.S. majors ConocoPhillips (Charts) and ExxonMobil (Charts), as well as Royal Dutch Shell (Charts), have interests in the area, although Canadian firm Suncor (Charts) and the consortium Syncrude are the biggest players.

Getting a product similar to light crude usually involves one of two methods.

The first uses a model borrowed from open-pit mining, in which the sands are dug out of the ground with heavy equipment, then mixed with steam, hot water and caustic soda to create a slurry.

The slurry then enters a separation tank where bitumen, the valuable product in this process, rises to the top and is skimmed off. The bitumen is then heated again to remove impurities, resulting in a synthetic light, sweet crude that’s easy to refine.

The other method uses a well to inject steam into a seam of oil sand deep below the earth’s surface. The resulting slurry then drains down into a second well drilled below the first, where it’s pumped to the surface.

This eliminates the need to strip-mine the area, but creating the needed steam uses vast amounts of energy.

And energy is the first limitation people bring up at the mention of the oil sands.

Tertzakian said it takes the equivalent of 0.7 barrels of oil to create one barrel of oil sands product.

What’s more, most of the energy needed to make the stuff currently comes from natural gas, an energy-rich, clean fossil fuel.

“It’s like using caviar to make fake crab meat,” said Marlo Raynolds, executive director of the Pembina Institute, a Canadian environmental group.

Experts say most of the natural gas Canada currently exports to the United States will be eaten up by the oil sands projects. To fuel further expansion, they say, Canada will have to import natural gas from Alaska. Some have even suggested going nuclear, although that idea has gained little traction so far.

Another constraint is water. Both extracting methods use huge amounts, up to two barrels for every barrel of oil produced.

Even with production running at one million barrels a year, concerns are already being raised over the drawdown from the major rivers that flow through the region.

“At some point it’s going to reach a tipping point when people say enough is enough,” said Raynolds.

And then there’s the labor question. If you’re looking to make truckloads of money doing mindless work, head to Fort McMurray, the biggest town close to the oil sands.

A quick read of the classifieds at the town’s newspaper turns up jobs selling concessions at the movie theatre paying the equivalent of U.S. $10 an hour. Janitor positions start at $17.

For more skilled workers, a welder can bring in $80,000 a year, more than double the average in the U.S. And that’s without overtime.

“We now have signing bonuses for people who work in coffee shops,” said Tertzakian. “We just don’t have the labor pool to match $90 billion in investment.”

So how much can they pull from the ground in Alberta?

The Canadian government and many of the companies up there put the number somewhere around 4 million barrels per day by 2015, still a significant amount roughly equal to America’s total crude production.

“The production levels aren’t unrealistic at all, it’s just a question of time,” said Sheraz Mian, a senior oil and natural gas analyst at Zacks Investment Research.

But others are less sanguine.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration, not generally known for issuing bearish reports, puts the number at 2.3 million barrels per day by 2015.

Tertzakian estimates maybe 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day and cautions against too much optimism.

“Nobody should feel comfortable that Canada’s oil sands are going to single-handedly satisfy the world’s energy needs,” he said.
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David Biello. July 2013. Greenhouse Goo. The fate of the Alberta’s tar sands mines and the climate may come down to the Keystone XL pipeline. Scientific American

Caterpillar 797Fs are the worlds largest trucks, capabe of carrying a 400-metric-ton load of tar sands.  Women drivers are sought after because they’re easier on the equipment than men, but hard to find since men outnumber women 3 to 1.

Suncor produces a third of the 2 million barrels produced per day.

 

Alice Friedemann

Posted in Energy, Hazardous Waste, Pollution, Tar Sands (Oil Sands) | Tagged , , , , | Comments Off on Why Canadian oilsands will not help solve the energy crisis

World Peak Uranium Production

2022 World Uranium extraction by country

Preface.  The World Nuclear Association estimates 90 years are left.  Today  67,500 tonnes of uranium are consumed a year world-wide and production in 2020 was 47,731 tonnes (WNA 2021). Sounds a bit peakish, thank goodness for stockpiles and the infinite amounts of money that can be printed to force uranium out of the ground.

In the news:

2022-9-5 Uranium Risks Becoming the Next Critical Minerals Crisis   Washington Post. “…uranium’s supply chain is as susceptible to geopolitical manipulation as those for natural gas, cobalt, and rare earths. If developed countries want to count on atomic energy as a reliable source of zero-carbon power in the 2030s and 2040s, they’re going to need to start locking down the mineral resources now. Nearly 75% of nuclear generation is in Europe, North America, and developed parts of Asia but provide just 19% of the 75,000 metric tons of uranium oxide needed to fuel these reactors every year.”

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

The latest NEA/IAEA Uranium resources, production, and demand report (2020) assures readers there’s enough uranium to meet world demand through 2040 if money is invested in new mining operations. But ramping up mining is a challenge with geopolitical, technical, legal, regulatory and NIMBY issues. Prices are already low due to the Fukushima Daiichi disaster and reduced demand.  In a recession, new investments might drop even further. Since 2017 uranium resources have only increased by 1%. Even if mining were ramped up, 87% of the 2019 resource base, recoverable at a cost of less than $ 80 USD/kgU, would be used up.  Though at under $260 USD/kgU there are sufficient supplies for 135 years at current demand if mining production increases despite higher prices.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a problem for the United States, the world’s largest uranium consumer, because 16% of uranium is imported from Russia and 30% from Russian allies Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Russia produces all of the enriched type of uranium needed by the next generation of advanced reactors. The U.S. has no facilities to do this because investors are waiting to see if new generation reactors actually happen. Nor can the U.S. supply itself indefinitely with only 1% of world uranium resources, much of it on Native American land, where uranium mines are likely to be rejected. For example, a uranium superfund site in New Mexico hasn’t been cleaned up despite decades of effort, and is still leaching radioactive waste into the groundwater (Montague 2022). The Navajo nation has also suffered tremendously from nuclear waste and groundwater contamination as well (NEA/IAEA 2020).

Much of the U.S. uranium has come from stockpiles of recovered uranium from Russian nuclear weapons. Today there are about three years of uranium stockpiled in the U.S. (Statista 2020, NEA/IAEA 2020).

Meanwhile dozens of nuclear power plants have shut down, and dozens more also will as they near the end of their intended life spans (Cooper 2013).

Any new mines or nuclear power plants also face huge opposition, because nothing is being done to store nuclear wastes (except for Finland in 2024), exposing future generations to hundreds of thousands of years of toxic radioactive pollution and ongoing threats of nuclear proliferation and dirty bombs.

Nuclear boosters might try to ease your worries with the idea of unconventional uranium. But much of this is found in phosphate rocks. Walan et al. (2014) cite 19 studies estimating the peak year or full depletion of phosphate rock in 30 to 400 years. Since phosphate is absolutely essential for agriculture, this resource isn’t likely to ever be exploited for uranium, though could be as a by-product if economically feasible (NEA/IAEA 2020). Moroccans have up to 75% of remaining phosphorus reserves (USGS 2020).

Nuclear power can’t be ramped up and down fast enough to balance wind, solar, and other intermittent, unreliable power sources.  Only natural gas can do that and functions as the storage for electricity as well. Natural gas is finite, once it’s gone, the electric grid will go down.

The only commercial way to store electricity today is pumped hydro storage (PHS), which can store 2% of America’s electricity generation currently. But we’ve run out of places to put new dams. Only two have been built since 1995. There are only 43 PHS dams now– we’d need 7800 more to store one day of U.S. electricity.

The only other commercially proven way to store electricity is compressed air energy storage (CAES). But we only have one small 110 MW plant in Alabama, because they need to be sited above rare geological salt domes 1650-4250 feet underground that only exist in 3 gulf states and a small part of Utah, and they use quite a bit of fossil fuels to compress the air.

What about batteries? The total storage capability of batteries in 2019 was only 0.001236 Terawatt hours (TwH). Every day the United States generates 11.43 TwH (4171 Twh/year in 2018, so to store one day of electricity generation would require 9250 times more batteries than existed in 2018. On top of that, because wind and solar are so extremely seasonal, and there’s no national grid or ever likely to be one, on average a region would need to store at least 42 days of electricity to make it through long periods when the wind isn’t blowing and the sun isn’t shining. That’s 600,000 times more batteries than installed in 2018 (Friedemann 2016).

Using data from the Department of Energy energy storage handbook, I calculated that the cost of NaS batteries capable of storing 24 hours of electricity generation in the United States came to $40.77 trillion dollars, covered 923 square miles, and weighed in at a husky 450 million tons. Li-ion batteries would cost $11.9 trillion dollars, take up 345 square miles, and weigh 74 million tons. Lead– acid (advanced) would cost $8.3 trillion dollars, take up 217.5 square miles, and weigh 15.8 million tons. These calculations exclude the round- trip losses (Friedemann 2016). After 15 years, rinse and repeat, the battery lifespan ranges from 5 to 15 years.

So why would you want to build new nuclear plants? On top of that, not only is it impossible for nuclear reactors to keep the electric grid up, fossils are essential for transportation, manufacturing, 500,000 products made out of petroleum, fertilizer and can’t be replaced with electricity (Friedemann 2021).

Best to use declining energy and investment in burying the wastes that exist for the sake of life on the planet. There’s no reason to continue to build more nuclear reactors.

Adding to all these problems are supply chain issues, and above all, likely world peak oil production in 2018 (Friedemann 2021), leading to higher energy costs and oil crises and shortages.  That means that the cost of energy will reduce resource estimates as they become economically unfeasible.

Peak uranium may have already occurred or will within 10 to 200 years, especially if energy becomes scarce or very expensive after oil decline (Dittmar 2013, EWG 2013, Bardi 2014), and fossil fuels reallocated to agriculture and other essential services (DOE 1979,).   Uranium takes a tremendous amount of energy to mine and refine, so at some point the energy to mine it is more than the mined uranium will every supply. The option of extraction from seawater is not going to happen, that takes the most energy of all (Bardi 2014).

Breeder reactors you may ask in desperation?  After 60 years and tens of billions of dollars, these still aren’t commercial. And more like nuclear weapons than nuclear reactors, with seconds to stop an explosion if something goes wrong.

Nuclear power plants and mining depend on fossils for their entire life cycle for the construction, mining, milling, transporting, refining, enrichment, waste reprocessing/disposal, fabrication, operation and decommissioning processes of nuclear power fuels (Pearce 2008).  We learned from Fukushima that the biggest danger is a spent nuclear pool fire.  If that happened at the Peach bottom nuclear plant in Pennsylvania, as many as 8 million people would have to evacuate at a cost of over $2 trillion dollars, aquifers would be contaminated, and thousands of square miles of land would become uninhabitable (von Hippel and Schoepnner 2016; Lyman et al. 2017).

Clearly it’s time to stop uranium mining, start burying nuclear waste, and decommissioning nuclear power plants for the sake of the grandchildren. Let’s spend the energy instead on converting industrial to organic farms, improving infrastructure and so on to help future generations live better lives in a postcarbon world.

References

Bardi U (2014) Extracted: how the quest for mineral wealth is plundering the planet. Chelsea Green

Cooper M (2013) Renaissance in reverse: Competition pushes aging U.S. nuclear reactors to the brink of economic abandonment. Institute for Energy and the environment. Vermont school of law. http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2018/ph241/shi1/docs/cooper.pdf

Dittmar M (2013) The end of cheap uranium. Sci Total Environ 461–462:792–798

DOE (1979) Standby gasoline rationing plan. U.S.  Department of Energy. https://doi. org/10.2172/6145884.

EWG (2013) Fossil and nuclear fuels – the Supply Outlook. Energy Watch Group

Lyman E, Schoeppner M, von Hippel F (2017) Nuclear safety regulation in the post-Fukushima era. Science 356:808–809

Montague Z (2022) Russia’s aggression prompts calls to rethink U.S. Uranium imports. New York Times.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/us/politics/russia-uranium-nuclear-power.html

NEA/IAEA (2020) Uranium resources, production, and demand report. Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency.

Pearce JM (2008) Thermodynamic Limitations to nuclear energy deployment as a greenhouse gas mitigation technology. International Journal of Nuclear Governance, Economy and Ecology 2(1): 113.

Statista (2020) Leading countries based on uranium consumption worldwide in 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/264796/uranium-consumption-leading-countries/

USGS (2020) Phosphate rock. World Mine Production and Reserves. U.S.  Geological Survey. https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2020/mcs2020-phosphate.pdf

von Hippel FN, Schoepnner M (2016) Reducing the danger from fires in spent fuel pools. Science & Global security 24:141–173

WNA (2021) Supply of Uranium. World Nuclear Association. Supply: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx Production: https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx

Posted in An Index of Best Energyskeptic Posts, Battery - Utility Scale, CAES Compressed Air, Electric Grid & Fast Collapse, Gen IV SMR reactors, Natural Gas Energy Storage, Nuclear Power Energy, Nuclear spent fuel fire, Nuclear War, Nuclear Waste, Peak Uranium, Pumped Hydro Storage (PHS) | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off on World Peak Uranium Production

Why did everyone stop talking about Population & Immigration?

Preface. This post summarizes the 20 top reasons why population growth was abandoned the past 40 years. A deeper understanding can be found in the excellent Beck & Kolankiewicz (2000) “The Environmental Movement’s Retreat from Advocating U.S. Population Stabilization” and Weisman’s “Countdown: Our last, Best hope for a future on Earth?”

For many years I volunteered at planned parenthood, zero population growth, and the Sierra Club action groups on population, because this is the ONLY way to reduce the 9 existential threats we face: climate change, biodiversity loss, deforestation, erosion of topsoil, depletion of fresh water, ozone depletion, land-use change, altered bio-geochemical cycles from overuse of fertilizers, ocean acidification, chemical pollution, atmospheric aerosol loading, and the phosphorus cycle (Steffen et al 2015, Rockström J et al 2009). Not to mention fewer traffic jams, less noise pollution — can you think of a single problem that wouldn’t be helped by fewer people?

Fossil fuels are how we were able to exceed these boundaries and overshoot the carrying capacity of the planet, with world population growing from 400 million before coal to 8+ billion today.  But it looks like world oil production of both conventional and unconventional peaked in 2018, coal in 2013, and possibly natural gas in 2019, almost as serious as peak oil, since fertilizers are not only made out of natural gas, but use natural gas to create the tremendous heat and pressure to get inert nitrogen in the air to combine with the hydrogen in natural gas — fertilizer that keeps at least 4 billion of us alive today (Fisher 2001; Smil 2004; Stewart et al. 2005; Erisman et al. 2008).

Today the Supreme court undid Roe V Wade, at a time when the carrying capacity of the planet is about to go back to 500 million people and birth control and abortion are the only way to get there besides the four horsemen of the apocalypse…

Also see: Lochhead C (2013) Why is linking population growth to environmental stress politically taboo? San Francisco Chronicle.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

“There is no need to decide whether to stop the population increase or not. There is no need to decide whether the population will be lowered or not. It will, it will! The only thing mankind has to decide is whether to let population decline be done in the old inhumane method that nature has always used, or to invent a new humane method of our own.” Isaac Asimov, 1974.

“Unlooked for but swift, we have come on like a swarm of locusts: a wide, thick, darkling cloud settling down like living snowflakes, smothering every stalk, every leaf, eating away every scrap of green down to raw, bare, wasting earth…There are too many men for Earth to harbor. At nearly seven billion we have overshot Earth’s carrying capacity”. Dave Foreman, co-founder of Earth First.

Population world in billions

 1) Consumption

The famous equation to describe this is I = P x A x T, which translates to Human Impact (I) on the environment =  (P)opulation times (A)ffluence times (T)echnology.

The United States uses 7 billion tons of minerals a year. Per capita that’s 47,769 pounds per American: 1400 pounds of copper, 9 tons of phosphate rock, 300 tons of coal, 16 tons of iron ore, 700 tons of stone, sand, and gravel, and so on.

Although there are some who blame only the wealthiest 2 billion, the poor also have a large impact on the environment:

  • Slash and burn farmers migrate deep into rainforests on illegal logging roads and cause massive biodiversity loss, wild fires, erosion
  • Deforestation due to illegal timber harvests and to cook food
  • Overfishing
  • Desertification
  • Competition over scarce water
  • Sewage and chemical pollution due to lack of treatment
  • The poor escape by migrating to wealthy nations, increasing consumption, and lessening the need for birth control
  • The best and the brightest leave poor nations, opening the door to autocracy and mafia rule by gangs, who cause even more to flee to rich nations to escape them
World Population Growth 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

World Population Growth 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.

2) It’s taboo to mention the link between poverty and population

Much of the misery and starvation in Niger  is caused by having the highest birthrate in the world, which clearly reduces the slice of resources per person (and everywhere). But reporters never mention this connection since it is not politically correct.

3) Don’t worry, America’s birth rate went down

By 1973 the birth rate dropped below replacement level, so the media ran headlines declaring that the population problem was solved and that America had reached Zero Population Growth.

Not true! The population in the U.S. was, and is, still growing. So what if the rate of increase is less, it’s still a hundred times greater than when we were forced to live within limits before fossil fuels.  And with 8 billion people, half of them under 30, a lot more babies are born every year than ever before, 80 million a year now, with 3 billion more people expected by 2050.

4) Feminists and Human-rights groups took over the Sierra Club

After feminists and human-rights advocates were put on the population committee at the Sierra Club, they fought to have empowerment of women as the main goal. Dave Foreman was on the committee and opposed this since the goal was population stabilization and then reduction. Empowering women might be a key path to that goal, but was not the goal itself.

The newcomers replied that any implied restrictions, such as a goal of population stabilization, was an assault on women rights to choose how many children they had. The mere mention of limits to growth was coercive.

The takeover of the Sierra Club population platform by people unaware or unable to understand “The Limits to Growth” and “The Tragedy of the Commons” was a tragedy.  The Sierra Club was instrumental in making the topic of population taboo and politically incorrect.

Another big factor in why the Sierra club abandoned it’s population position was because David Gelbaum, who had given them over $100 million dollars, demanded they take this position or he wouldn’t continue to give them large donations (Weiss).

Since the 1980s there’s been little media attention to population growth, and close to none since 1994.

Not only did the Sierra Club and other environmental groups stop writing about population issues, they stopped reminding people that overpopulation is responsible for every single problem they were trying to “solve”.  Clearly all of these problems would be reduced if there were fewer people:

  • Climate change
  • Oceans: acidification, overfishing, pollution
  • (Rain)forest destruction for agriculture, cattle, construction
  • Biodiversity loss (6th mass extinction)
  • Providing a good education to children everywhere
  • Feeding everyone
  • Making jobs available for record numbers of unemployed youth

Martha Campbell puts this even more strongly – she sees hostility towards mentioning the population question due to universities teaching students that even discussing the connection between population and environment is not a tolerable topic of discussion and politically incorrect to even suggest that slowing population growth might protect the environment for future generations.

5) Cornucopians and Leftists Environmentalists also destroyed immigration and population stabilization goals

You’d think the Left would support conservation, but there are splinters who saw talking about overpopulation as blaming the world’s poor for their plight. Better to stop wealthy countries from consuming so much.

In 1998 the Bay Area Marxist group “Political Ecology Group” succeeded in killing a Sierra Club immigration-lowering initiative. Leftist ideologues also suppressed talk about overpopulation at the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment because Chinese and India’s attempts to gain population stabilization were seen by them as coercive.

6) The American public is not scientifically educated and ignores warnings from scientists

Anyone who denies overpopulation is a problem ought to be called a population denier, just as those who insist there’s no climate change are called Climate Change Deniers. For some reason just about everyone, scientifically literate or not, ignores warnings about population:

  1. 1798 An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Malthus
  2. 1968 The Tragedy of the Commons by Garrett Hardin
  3. 1968 The Population Bomb by Paul Ehrlich
  4. 1973 Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows et al
  5. 1980 Overshoot by William Catton (especially Chapter 2)
  6. 1992 World scientists’ warning to humanity. 1,700 of the world’s leading scientists, including the majority of Nobel laureates in the sciences, issued this appeal
  7. 1993 The Arithmetic of Growth: Methods of Calculation by Albert Bartlett.
  8. 1995 The Immigration Dilemma: Avoiding the Tragedy of the Commons by Hardin
  9. 1999 The Ostrich Factor: Our Population Myopia by Garrett Hardin
  10. 2001 Global Biodiversity Outlook
  11. 2005 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
  12. 2006 The Essential Exponential: For the Future of our planet by Albert Bartlett (video)
  13. 2014 Nobel laureates call for a revolutionary shift in how humans use resources. Eleven holders of prestigious prize say excessive consumption threatening planet, and humans need to live more sustainably.

7) Educating Women to lower population a nice idea but…

As far as lowering population, Virginia Abernethy has some valid criticisms about whether this will work in “Population Politics: The Choices That Shape Our Future”.

The main reason it won’t work is that it’s too late.  We’re too far into overshoot beyond carrying capacity once fossil fuels start declining.

Though it’s still a good idea, so that as energy, natural resources, and population decline, educated women perhaps will fight the loss of their rights because they’ll know it doesn’t have to be that way.

8) Only humans matter, screw the other species on the planet

Nearly all the optimistic books written with the general theme of “YES WE CAN SUPPORT 10 BILLION PEOPLE” ignore other species on the planet. All that matters are human needs.  The human-caused mass 6th extinction is well underway. The idea that we can kill off most other species and maintain a population of 10 billion is absurd.

9) Anyone who wants to limit immigration or population is portrayed as a racist

Have you ever seen anyone on TV or in newspapers who stated their reason for wanting reduced immigration and population was their concern over loss of biodiversity, increasing pollution, declining aquifers, fisheries, forests, energy, and other resources? And if they were allowed to speak about environmental issues, they would still be accused of hiding their REAL motivation, which was racism.

Hell no. Only hateful racists are interviewed and their views linked to eugenics, genocide, and colonialism. They are portrayed as not trying to curb all growth, but only that of undesirable people such as the poor or undesirable races.

Many systems ecologists have estimated that without fossil fuels, the United States could support at most 100 million people.  The media should be asking people how we can go from 320 million to 100 million without birth control, abortion, and limiting immigration.

I personally think it’s less than 100 million due to what we’ve done to our topsoil, aquifers, massive dieoffs of marine life from eutrophication (due to fertilizer runoff), the lack of land to grow food on once the 4x to 5x intensification of food produced due to natural-gas fertilizers is no longer attained, phosphorous depletion, invasive species, and a whole lot of other ecological showstoppers covered elsewhere on this site.

10) The Sierra club and other environmental groups abandoned immigration level goals

in 1989 the Sierra Club’s stand was that “immigration to the U.S. should be no greater than that which will permit achievement of population stabilization in the U.S.”.

But in the 1990s conservationists feared alienating leftist and racial rights groups and dropped immigration to stabilize population from their platforms.

Since then immigration has grown immensely. Until 1965 levels were about 200,000 a year. In 1965 it leapt to 1,000,000, and in 1990 to 1.5 million.

Immigration is now the main cause of increasing population growth in the United States. Between 1900 and 2000 the population almost quadrupled (76 to 281 million), with the largest 10 year increase between 1990 and 2000 (32.7 million).

11) We must have more population growth to fund retirees and grow the economy

That’s clearly a crazy Ponzi scheme that can’t go on forever on a finite planet.

It is also a way to have cheap labor once you’ve got many people competing for jobs, and perhaps the real reason why the elites wanted population growth.

12) Immigrants take jobs Americans don’t want

Who benefits from immigration?  Businesses that want to pay people less. Everyone else loses. Wages would be much higher if there weren’t so many people competing for every job, which drives wages, safety, and working conditions down.

Free-market economics likes the high population growth in low-income countries abroad as well, which further acts to depress wages worldwide.

13) We’re wealthy, so we’re obliged to offer shelter to immigrants, and we are a nation of immigrants

Just because we can’t control other nation’s population policies doesn’t mean we should reward them for reproducing beyond their carrying capacity.  Since developed nations consume many times more resources, immigrants from India to the U.S. magnify resource depletion 40-fold, since Americans consume 40 times more per capita than Indians.

14) Nature keeps us alive

People are  brainwashed by viewing the world through economic filters, forgetting that  forests, fisheries, wetlands, aquifers, healthy deep class 1 and 2 topsoil, and other resources are essential for survival, and can be diminished and even depleted.

15) 1994 United Nations International Conference on Population and Development

The Catholic church and well meaning but ecologically ignorant activists at this conference shifted the goal of population stabilization and growth to empowering women. They labeled attempts by China and India as coercive, and thereby killed family planning, replacing it with empowerment and reproductive rights and health, because now family planning was spun as being coercive.

Perhaps they forgot that women are coerced into unwanted pregnancies and often die or are severely injured in childbirth.  One of the results of this conference is that many poor women have little or no access to family planning and as a consequence are unable to control their bodies, how many children they have and when they have them.

This conference discouraged discussing the connection between population growth and environmental destruction, because to do so was seen as anti-woman. Anyone who persisted in talking about population growth was dismissively labeled a Malthusian.

16) Standard demographic theory

It was assumed that women would want fewer children as their nation modernized and more women were educated.

A better theory and one that matches reality, is that if men and women can gain easy access to birth control, they will have fewer children.

For example, in Thailand, where family planning is easy to obtain, women with no education used birth control as much as educated women. In the Philippines, where birth control is hard to get due to the Catholic Church, uneducated women don’t use contraception because they can’t get it.

If women could gain access to birth control, the population growth rate would go down.

Women aren’t stupid, they know that childbirth is dangerous – the risk of death or injury is very high. Women would rather stay alive to take care of their existing children. One million children are left motherless every year – childbirth kills 287,000 women and injures another 10 million every year according to the World Health Organization.

17) It’s Human Nature not to worry about overpopulation

In the end it may be that we’re not wired to worry about this issue. Everyone loves babies. We’re tribal. We’re optimistic.

18) Don’t worry: the fertility rate and disease are driving population down

Worldwide, family planning brought fertility rates down from 5.5 to 2.5 children per woman. Therefore the media reports: the population explosion is over.  But the rate is still above replacement, the population is still growing exponentially. Just a bit more slowly.

19) Propaganda from anti-abortion activists, religious leaders, and right-wing think tanks

The most extreme are not only against abortion, but even family planning. Catholics and Right-to-Lifers strategized to convince people that there was no population problem, since that’s one of the reasons many people supported legal abortions.

Islamic countries are thought of as living in the Dark Ages, but some Muslim countries are the most advanced in family planning. In Iran, subsidies stop after a third child and classes in modern contraception methods are required before a marriage license can be obtained.

Capitalists have succeeded in painting environmentalists with negative terms such as being overly concerned about the environment, which threatens jobs and that their concerns about pollution and endangered species are overblown.

20) Many people don’t understand how powerful exponential growth is

Population doubling times

Years Billions Years to add 1 billion more people
1800 1 200,000
1930 2 130
1960 3 30
1975 4 15
1987 5 12
1999 6 12
2011 7 12

Source: Scheidel (2003)

21) Republicans cut funding for international family planning programs

Not to mention how hard they’ve fought birth control and abortion at home. Reagan, Trump, and George W. Bush all harmed efforts to provide women in developing nations with birth control and abortions.  Because of lack of birth control and abortions, Mexicans and other central americans have far more children than their nations can support, so of course they come here, as do legal immigrants from overpopulated nations. The U.S. functions as a safety valve for nations that can’t control their own population and delays revolution and starvation a bit longer.

22) It’s easier to blame climate change than do something about population 

If politicians really wanted to make a difference, they’d put limits to growth in their city limits, based on water availability and so on.  In two thirds of California counties, humans sparked 95 to 99% of the fires, not climate change, according to professor Keeley at UCLA. He said “To me, climate change is a distraction from the population problem…they’re comfortable with global warming because they can’t be held accountable, whereas population growth is something that much more directly affects their constituents, right now (Bland 2019).

23) Excerpt from How Nixon and the Catholic Church conspired to stop actions to prevent overpopulation

In 1971, it recognized that reliance on private, voluntary decisions:  “will not be sufficient to provide the necessary limitation of population growth unless there is a radical and rapid change in the attitudes and desires. The Church must commit itself to effecting this change. The assumption that couples have the freedom to have as many children as they can support should be challenged. We can no longer justify bringing into existence as many children as we desire. Our corporate responsibility to each other prohibits this. Given the population crisis we must recognize and teach, beginning with ourselves, that man has an obligation to limit the size of his family.”

And in 1972, the Presbyterians called on governments “to take such actions as will stabilize population size…. We who are motivated by the urgency of over-population rather than the prospect of decimation would preserve the species by responding in faith: Do not multiply—the earth is filled!”[3]

This kind of increasing out cry for action made it safe—almost compelling—for American political leadership to identify with the concept of population growth control and to call for new programs to deal with the problem.

It was in this climate of rising concern that President Nixon sent to Congress his “Special Message on Problems of Population Growth.” Special messages to the Congress are exceedingly rare and this was the first such message on population. This action punctuated the beginning of the peak of American political will to deal with the mounting population crisis. The message, for the first time, committed the United States to confronting the population problem. Also rare, this special message was approved by the Congress. Its passage was bipartisan, indicating broad political support for American political action to combat this problem. The message was a water shed development, yet few recall it.

The most important element of the Special Message was its creation of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. During the signing of the bill establishing the Commission, President Nixon commented on the broad political and public support: “I believe this is an historic occasion. It has been made historic not simply by the act of the President in signing this measure, but by the fact that it has had bipartisan support and also such broad support in the Nation.”

The 24 member Commission was chaired by John D. Rockefeller 3rd. It ordered more than 100 research projects which collected and analyzed data that would make possible the formulation of a comprehensive U.S. population policy. After 2 years of intense effort, the Commission completed a 186-page report titled, Population and the American Future which offered more than 70 recommendations. The recommendations were a bold but sane response to the challenges we faced in 1973. For example, they called for: passage of a Population Education Act to help school systems establish well-planned population education programs; sex education to be widely available for all, including minors, at government expense if necessary; vastly expanded research in many areas related to population-growth control; and the elimination of all employment of illegal aliens.

The recommendations represented the conclusions of some of the nation’s most capable people. The scientists who completed the Commission’s 100 research projects were among the best in their fields. These recommendations are included in this book because it is important for the reader to know what the U.S. response to the population problem could have been and should have been. On May 5, 1972, at a ceremony held for the purpose of formally submitting the Commission’s findings and conclusions, President Nixon publicly renounced the report.[4] This was 6 months before the President faced re-election and he was feeling intense political heat from one particularly powerful, foreign-controlled special interest group—the hierarchy of the Roman Catholic Church. Nothing happened toward implementation of any of the more than three score recommendations that collectively would have created a comprehensive U.S. population policy. Not one recommendation was ever adopted. To this day, the U.S. has no population policy, one of the few major countries with this distinction.

Had these 70 carefully reasoned recommendations been adopted as U.S. population policy in 1973—or if even a dozen or so of the most important ones had been adopted—America would be very different today. We would be more secure, subjected to less crime, better educated now with even greater educational opportunities ahead, living with less stress in a healthier environment, with more secure employment and greater employment opportunities, with better medical care, all in a physically less crowded America.

We would have set an example for the world, and we have good reason to believe that much of the world would have followed. Ironically, the American people were better prepared to accept these recommendations in 1973 than in 1994, even though world population during this brief period has mushroomed a horrendous 43 percent. For the past 20 years, all of us have been subjected to an intense disinformation program staged by the opposition to raise doubts in each of us regarding the seriousness of the population problem.

24) Even Norman Borlaug, who won a Nobel Prize for the Green Revolution is alarmed by overpopulation

The Green Revolution eventually came under attack from environmental and social critics who said it had created more difficulties than it had solved. Dr. Borlaug responded that the real problem was not his agricultural techniques, but the runaway population growth that had made them necessary. “If the world population continues to increase at the same rate, we will destroy the species,” he declared. he warned the Nobel audience that the struggle against hunger had not been won. “We may be at high tide now, but ebb tide could soon set in if we become complacent and relax our efforts,” he said (Gillis 2009).

Quotes

Aldo Leopold: “For one species to mourn the death of another is a new thing under the sun. The Cro-Magnon who slew the last mammoth thought only of steaks. The sportsman who shot the last pigeon thought only of his prowess. The sailor who clubbed the last auk thought of nothing at all. But we, who have lost our pigeons, mourn the loss. Had the funeral been ours, the pigeons would hardly have mourned us”.

Leon Kolankiewicz “Our species is unique, because here and now only we have the ability to destroy, or to save, biodiversity. Only we have the ability to care one way or the other. The destiny of all wild living things is in our hands. Will we crush them or let them be wild and free? Limiting human population will not guarantee success, but not doing so means certain failure”.

Isaac Asimov: “Democracy cannot survive overpopulation. Human dignity cannot survive it. Convenience and decency cannot survive it. As you put more and more people onto the world, the value of life not only declines, it disappears”.

References

APPG 2007. Return of the Population Growth Factor: Its Impact on the Millennium Development Goals. All Party Parliamentary Group on Population, Development and Reproductive Health.

Asimov, I. 1974. The future of humanity. Newark college of engineering. asimovonline.com.
http://www.asimovonline.com/oldsite/future_of_humanity.html

Beck and Kolankiewicz. 2000. “The Environmental Movement’s Retreat from Advocating U.S. Population Stabilization”

Bland, A. 2019. So why isn’t anyone talking about population? East Bay Express.

Cafaro, P, (ed) et al. 2013. “Life on the Brink. Environmentalists Confront Overpopulation”.

Erisman JW, Sutton MA, Galloway J, et al (2008) How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world. Nat Geosci

Erb, Karl-Heinz, et al. 2009. Eating the Planet: Feeding and fuelling the world sustainably, fairly and humanely–a scoping study. Social Ecology Working Paper no. 116. Institute of Social Ecology and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Erlich, P. 1970. Population Resources Environment: Issues to Human Ecology.

Fisher D (2001) The Nitrogen Bomb. By learning to draw fertilizer from a clear blue sky, chemists have fed the multitudes. Discover magazine

Gillis J (2009) Norman Borlaug, Plant Scientist Who Fought Famine, Dies at 95. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/14/business/energy-environment/14borlaug.html

Hays, S. 1987. Beauty, Health, and Permanence: Environmental Politics in the United States, 1955-1985.

IUGS (International Union of Geological Sciences) 2013. Geoindicators. Soil and Sediment Erosion.

Levinson “The Box”

Meijer, R. I. Apr 16 2014: Overpopulation Is Not A Problem For Us. Theautomaticearth.com

Scheidel, W. 2003. “Ancient World, Demography of”. Encyclopedia of Population.

Homer-Dixon, T. 2001.  Environment, Scarcity, and Violence.

Rockström J (2009) Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity. Ecology & Society 14(2):32.

Smil V (2004) Enriching the earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, and the transformation of world food production. MIT Press

Stewart WM, Dibb DW, Johnston AE et al (2005) The contribution of commercial fertilizer nutrients to food production. Agron J 97:1–6

UNFAO 2006. Livestock’s Long Shadow: Environmental Issues and Options. United Nations Food & Agriculture Organization.

Weiss, K.R. October 27, 2004. The Man Behind the Land. Los Angeles Times.

APPENDIX 1

[Here are excerpts of a more nuanced look at overpopulation denial ]

Diana Coole (2013) Too many bodies? The return and disavowal of the population question, Environmental Politics, 22:2, 195-215.

During the 1960s and early 1970s population growth was regarded as an urgent environmental issue. Since then the topic has fallen into abeyance. Despite continuing demographic expansion and anxieties about a range of socio-ecological problems – from the stresses of high-density urban living to climate change, water, energy and food insecurity and loss of biodiversity – there is currently scant consideration of the benefits of population stabilization or decline.

Indeed, the problematization of population numbers is widely disavowed or regarded with profound suspicion. Why have we become so reluctant to ask whether we are too many or to countenance policies that might discourage further growth? I identify five discourses – population-shaming, population-skepticism, population-declinism, population-decomposing and population-fatalism – that foreclose public debate and subject them to critical analysis.

In 1950 world population had recently exceeded 2.5 billion. By 1990 it had doubled and by 2020 it will have tripled. October 2011 marked one among numerous demographic milestones on this expansive journey as the 7 billion threshold was crossed. This is in line with conclusions to the United Nations’ 2010 revision that ‘world population is expected to keep rising during the 21st century’, albeit more slowly during the latter part. It projects some 9.3 billion of us by 2050 and over 10 billion by the century’s end (United Nations 2010). Such an ongoing increase surely conveys an alarming story to anyone concerned about environmental sustainability and social wellbeing. Or does it? I ask why concerns about population growth and over-population have virtually disappeared from the political agenda of developed countries, especially, since the mid-1970s. Have they simply forgotten about, even resolved, the issue? Or is it rather, as my analysis suggests, that problematising it has been foreclosed? For despite periodic eruptions of concern among democratic publics, members of the policy community have been noticeably reluctant to address these anxieties. Even among critical theorists and Greens, scant attention has been paid to the topic over recent decades.

These are analytic distinctions. In practice the discourses overlap or work in conjunction, the most obvious factor they share being antipathy to the Malthusian equation between population growth and resource shortages. But these are not merely analytic categories; they are also profoundly political. Each has a distinctive genealogy in terms of its ideological and professional investments, the political interests it serves and the narratives in which it is embedded. The more that key demographic variables become amenable to policymaking, the greater the impact of the discourses that frame them. It is not my contention that arguments for disavowing the population question are simply specious; but I do think they warrant critical investigation. Do they offer good enough reasons for excluding population talk from public debate or for dismissing certain types of policy intervention?

My analysis shows how a taboo on considering the merits of population stabilization is complemented in developed countries by a policy framework that favors higher birth rates and net inward migration as a condition of sustained economic growth.

Population talk in more developed countries operates at three levels: concerning their own demographics; concerning trends in developing countries; and regarding global numbers more generally. Regarding their own population size, first, it is helpful to summarize a few salient elements of Malthus’ argument in An Essay on the Principle of Population (2004 [1798]). Malthus claimed that while the means of subsistence develop in a linear manner, population grows exponentially. These different tempos reach a critical threshold as productive land is exhausted; a situation of disequilibrium he associated with more developed countries like Britain. Either population growth must thenceforth be reduced through rational means, notably by sexual abstinence, or, if these ‘preventive checks’ fail, more painful ‘positive checks’ will ensue as the unsustainable excess falls victim to famine, disease or war, thereby restoring balance (Malthus 2004).

It is hardly surprising that such views should have provoked antagonism. Anti-natalist ideas about curtailing the proliferation of the human species challenged deep-seated traditional beliefs. In raising the specter of excessive numbers, the population question crossed vitalist and religious taboos regarding the sanctity of life and privileging of human life. It challenged Enlightenment ideas about humans’ mastery economists’ views on the engine of prosperity, humanity’s most fundamental ideas about the sacred, life and death, as well as on some of its most enduring identities and rituals regarding the family, marriage and sexuality.

Demographic change entails three principal variables: fertility, mortality and migration. All provoke profound ethical questions, especially once the state involves itself biopolitically in their modification. During the 1960s, Malthusianism nevertheless acquired fresh resonance in advanced industrial countries where there was renewed anxiety about a population explosion (Ehrlich 1972, Meadows et al. 1972, Goldsmith and Allen 1972). Despite the post-war baby boom the rate of increase here was relatively modest, but the multiplication of increasing affluence by larger numbers suggested imminent catastrophe.

The Malthusian alternative between choosing limits or facing disaster was widely spoken about. New reproductive technologies and feminist challenges to conventional gender roles seemed to make population stabilization more viable, yet the task of restoring equilibrium between population and environment seemed no less difficult given predilections for sustained economic growth. Reducing population nevertheless became integral to an environmental sensibility that mobilized new social movements and found common cause with new left critiques of consumer capitalism (Marcuse 1964, 1972). Limits-to-growth arguments accordingly provided the framework for a radical discourse in which economic and population growth were recognized as mutually reinforcing and equally exponential, thus exceeding the capacities of a finite planet. Restoring balance suggested a fundamental social transformation in which fewer people might use technology creatively to improve the quality of lives sustained by less toil, wasteful consumption or excessive reproduction but enriched by a more harmonious relationship with nature. By 1969 even President Richard Nixon was warning Congress that the domestic pressure of 200 million Americans was threatening democracy and education, privacy and living space, natural resources and the quality of the environment (Nixon 2006, pp. 775, 777). Official reports to both the American (1972) and British (1973) governments advised stabilizing population numbers in the national interest. Yet this antigrowth orientation would shortly fall into abeyance, with the very language of limits or constraint being rejected.

On a second level, developed countries express concern about population growth in developing countries, where most increase now occurs. I want to emphasize here the way this concern rebounded to reframe their own views on the population question. On the one hand, radical arguments for controlling fertility in economically advanced nations were complemented by support for population control policies in the global South, where they provoked accusations of racism. My account of population-shaming shows how third-world suspicion about first-world motives rebounded to render the topic uncongenial to democratic publics.

On the other hand, while many governments in developing countries still struggle to contain their burgeoning populations (United Nations 2011), new anti-Malthusian discourses in developed countries are helping to reframe their views, thanks to the circulation of transnational discourses through bodies like the United Nations or World Bank and via non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and academic currencies. So even here, the epic story of runaway population growth that formerly galvanized efforts at fertility reduction has become muted: despite regional demographic differences, discursive frameworks are increasingly global and hegemonic.

Population-fatalist. These generally recognize that the multiplication of relatively small but expanding ecological footprints in poor countries plus the larger ones imprinted by richer individuals are collectively responsible for exacerbating phenomena like climate change (Wire 2009, O’Neill et al. 2010). As the Living Planet Report 2008 concludes, ‘with the world already in ecological overshoot, continued growth in population and per person footprint is clearly not a sustainable path’ (WWF 2008, p. 29).

While such claims suggest that world population numbers are hesitantly being re-problematized, demographic solutions are routinely rejected as too controversial or inefficacious to contemplate.

Discourses of dismissal and disavowal. Population-shaming. Among my five silencing discourses, population-shaming is most indicative of the poisonous legacy of North/South relations. Like population-skeptics, its protagonists reject claims that there is an objective demographic growth problem. Rather than charging neo-Malthusians with misplaced anxiety, however, they suggest that ostensible concerns about over-population are a subterfuge for pursuing heinous ulterior motives (Furedi 1997). The humus of population-shaming is a pervasive suspicion that limiting population actually means limiting certain categories of people who are deemed redundant or undesirable. Those who persist in advancing such arguments risk public humiliation for playing a numbers game that is interpreted as a blame game: one in which the world’s problems are refracted through population growth and blamed on the incontinent fecundity of the less privileged, whether they be the poor, women or inhabitants of the global South.

Sometimes advocates of population stabilization are presented as misanthropic people-haters, as when Murray Bookchin (1991, p. 123) asserts that deep ecology ‘blames ‘‘Humanity’’ as such for the ecological crisis – especially ordinary “consumers” and “breeders of children”. Sometimes they are charged with misogyny, inasmuch as women’s fertility is blamed for under-development or family planning programs are credited with promulgating unsafe contraceptive procedures (Hartmann 1987, Rao 2004). But the most serious charge concerns racism, linked here to colonialism, eugenics and genocide. As an article in the New Statesman (2004) states: ‘We dare not discuss population growth lest we be called racist’. But why is this association so pervasive?

First, despicable motives are attributed to population agencies, which are condemned for disguising their real aims through humanitarian rhetoric. This allegedly hides their true agenda (racism) and practices (coercive), which are claimed ‘in fact’ to represent the dictates of international institutions and national governments. International agencies are charged not only with sponsoring compulsory sterilisation but also with ‘withholding from some populations aid for food or sanitation infrastructure’ with the specific aim of culling the world’s poor. Multinationals’ ‘thirst for profit’ is presented as complementary to a broader racist project in which ‘poverty and disease become indirect tools of population control’. In short, both sorts of Malthusian check are identified here: the preventive type being imposed coercively and the positive kind cynically being left to run its course. In the context of developing countries they acquire distinctly racist significance. Such charges are not unfounded, with India especially commending itself as the referent for Hardt and Negri’s invective. Mass famines there had sometimes been presented by colonial administrators as salutary checks on overpopulation. Neo-Malthusian views would subsequently persuade the new republic to initiate the world’s first family planning program (1952) but it soon found itself dependent on foreign aid and mired in geopolitical interests. While at home Americans were fretting about the domestic effects of a population explosion on the environment, abroad their Cold War anxiety linked population growth to social instability and hence vulnerability to communism. Following disastrous harvests in the mid-1960s, food aid to India was used by the Johnson administration as leverage to insist on a robust family planning program whose respect for human rights was noticeably deficient (Caldwell 1998, Rao 2004, Connelly 2006). These equations formed the basis for considerable hostility to the population establishment and its Western supporters, with opposition being eloquently rehearsed by third world delegates to Bucharest in 1974 (Finkle and Crane 1975, Hodgson 1998). They interpreted population policies advocated by the US government as neocolonial and racially-motivated while accusing the West of blaming population growth for poverty rather than recognising the international capitalist system as the principal cause of under-development.

Because they are unspecific about these circumstances they imply that all family planning programmes with wider demographic goals are coercive and racially-motivated. Despite Multitude’s focus on the poor, its authors ignore the bleak effects of rapid population growth on the everyday lives of those who inhabit slums or the misery of unwanted pregnancies for those whose need for contraception remains unmet (Davis 2006, Stephenson et al. 2010). Nor can they consider the global consequences of increasingly affluent populations, since ecological concerns have been ruled out as mere hypocrisy.

A second association between population policy and racism is made via allusions to eugenics. Hardt and Negri condemn those who are ‘concerned primarily with which social groups reproduce and which do not’. For much of the twentieth century the project of improving the species’ genetic stock had influential adherents but by the 1920s, negative eugenics entailed sterilising the degenerate: the insane, the criminal, certain races. This policy gained its most notorious expression under Nazism as population policy became genocidal. The link in Multitude is undoubtedly reinforced by its authors’ indebtedness to Foucault, who explains that treating population as a matrix of different races permits the state to kill others as a condition of making life healthier (Foucault 2003, p. 245). In an age of colonial ambitions race accordingly justified genocide, while for eugenics programmes killing the enemy was a way to purify one’s own race. Historically, such references remain very powerful. Yet again, the link to population policy is specific and contingent. It is surely not a good enough reason to avoid population talk in the current century although it does provide a good explanation for our proclivity to do so. In a third linkage, Hardt and Negri refer to ‘racial panic’: a phenomenon elsewhere referred to as ‘race suicide’. In light of the decline of white European populations, they argue, perceptions of a demographic crisis primarily concern racial composition: the increasingly ‘darker color’ of European and world populations. ‘It is difficult’, they argue, ‘to separate most contemporary projects of population control from a kind of racial panic’. The term race suicide emerged early in the twentieth century when President Theodore Roosevelt condemned families who chose to produce merely two progeny: a nation that wilfully reduced its population in this way would deservedly commit race suicide, he maintained, adding that the differential fertility rates among Anglo-Saxons and immigrants might deliver an especially regrettable form of race suicide (Roosevelt 1903). It is indeed the case that population policies have sometimes been motivated by nationalist or ethnic desires to increase a people’s powers by multiplying more strenuously than its competitors. But this is not limited to white European populations; it is more typically associated with selective pro-natalism and population concerns are not reducible to eugenic ambitions, especially when it is the affluent who are most unsustainable. Hardt and Negri are helpful for illustrating how vulnerable demographic policies, especially those designed to achieve differential birth rates, are to racism and xenophobia and how susceptible to entanglement in broader geopolitical struggles. The warning remains salient inasmuch as such connections have acquired renewed resonance in light of unprecedented migration flows since the mid-1990s. In developed countries, immigration has replaced fertility as the principal demographic variable provoking public anxiety about population growth (United Nations 2000, Coleman 2010), with concerns about overcrowding and the environment again being interpreted as cloaks for racism. The connection certainly reinforces the sense in which population numbers are an inherently controversial issue. But does it not also show why anxieties provoked by demographic change must be subjected to public deliberation rather than being summarily rejected as too shameful to acknowledge?

Population-skepticism Although demography is for the most part an arid quantitative discipline, it also has its own narratives and these provide conduits investment. This section begins with a brief discussion transition theory (DTT), which is currently the dominant narrative and is responsible for population-skepticism among experts. By skepticism, here, I mean doubt that there is any longer a population problem since fertility is declining almost everywhere. In the latter part of the section I consider a more political variant of population-skepticism that suggests population growth is not detrimental anyway. In this case I show how the population-skepticism promulgated by demographic revisionists neoliberal and social conservative values. skepticism are hostile to an alternative Malthusian narrative. In the first case this is judged anachronistic; in the second it is rejected as predicated on fundamental misunderstandings of modernity’s capacities for sustained growth.

DTT comprises one of the great narratives of modernisation (Kirk 1996, p. 384). As Lee and Reher (2011, p. 1) write of transition, this ‘historical process ranks as one of the most important changes affecting human society in the past half millennium, on a par with the spread of democratic government, the industrial revolution, the increase in urbanization, and the progressive increases in educational levels of human populations’. DTT identifies four demographic stages that are integral to modernisation. Relatively stable populations with high fertility and mortality (DT 1) are disrupted by biopolitical regimes that reduce mortality rates. This causes rapid population growth because there is typically a lag before fertility drops correspondingly (DT 2). Thereafter, low mortality is matched by low fertility: the transition proper. Growth nevertheless continues thanks to the momentum of large, youthful populations (DT 3). Only in a final stage is transition completed as the population ages and growth stops, thereby restoring equilibrium albeit at a higher level (DT 4). This account stifles the population question by contextualising it. If population growth is caused by the second stage it is observed most anxiously in the third, yet by then fertility is already falling. While developed countries are currently in the final stage of transition, exponents of DTT maintain that most of their developing counterparts are advancing through the third stage and all are expected to follow suit. There is indeed considerable empirical evidence supporting fertility transition and the theory is useful for classifying the demographic situation in particular locations. It is nonetheless worth making some critical observations about the theory’s predictive powers and its relevance for the future, given that transition is routinely cited to justify demographic complacency.

It claims universal applicability but European experience provides its template and ideal. A problem arises insofar as diverse transitional patterns are classified as manifestations of a deterministic mechanism guaranteeing that transition will everywhere be completed. This greatly enhances the sceptical potency of the theory but like other modern end-of-history arguments, it relies on dubious teleological assumptions to inflate its predictive claims. For example, DTT presupposes that secular, Western attitudes to contraception and family size will prevail, yet it is by no means certain that this can be relied upon in a multicultural world in which religious, patriarchal cultures are gaining relative demographic advantage (Norris and Inglehart 2004, Kaufmann 2010). It assumes there is no Malthusian trap whereby high fertility forecloses opportunities for development, for example by suppressing capital accumulation. While current projections are broadly congruent with DTT expectations, this is unsurprising inasmuch as projections must extrapolate from current trends, a practice that relies on assumptions themselves furnished by DTT optimism. Projections ‘must not be confused with current reality’ precisely because their ‘assumptions reflect the spirit of the era in which they are framed. To them are transmitted its hopes and fears’ (Le Bras 2008, p.153, van de Kaa 1996, ONS 2008, pp. 23, 24). Their uncertainty is indicated by the production of several variants. So while the UN’s oft-cited medium variant for 2100 is 10.1 billion, this increases to 27 billion were 2005–10 fertility rates to remain constant (United Nations 2010, p. 1). In short, there are no guarantees that fertility will decline universally or irreversibly. Ironically, since worldwide completion of transition relies on contingent factors such as the willingness of international donors to fund family planning programs, population skepticism helps to disincentivise the very policies fertility decline depends on and to challenge projections’ accuracy.

Let us assume, however, that population does stabilise around 10 billion or perhaps declines thereafter. Would this be a good enough reason for dismissing population growth anxieties, as sceptics do? Might environmentalists not still wonder whether such levels are sustainable or desirable, especially when coupled with aspirations for global economic development and equity and in light of current ecological challenges? Should those who currently urge pronatalist policies in order to increase the post-transitional birth rate as a driver of economic growth not be challenged to justify their arguments in relation to the longer-term wellbeing of future generations and the planet? There is an important distinction here between skepticism levelled at the prospect of continuing demographic growth and normative doubts regarding the social benefits of living at thickening densities. Yet it is partly to suppress such reflections on the merits of returning to smaller populations, I now suggest, that population-skepticism has been embraced by neoliberals as an antidote to limits-to-growth arguments. An excellent place to start disentangling this political dimension of population-skepticism is the ‘Policy Statement of the United States of America at the United Nations International Conference on Population’ (The Whitehouse 1984). My analysis is designed to show the high ideological stakes the population game had assumed by the 1980s as neoliberal interests invested in population-skepticism. Despite developing countries’ antagonism to Americanled initiatives on population control in Bucharest, many had introduced donordependent, national family planning programmes by the 1980s because they regarded population growth as detrimental to development. It was in this context that the intervention of the Reagan administration, in an official document preparatory for the Mexico City conference (1984), represented a dramatic shift in perspective. The Statement insists that centralised targets for reducing population have no place in ‘the right of couples to determine the size of their own families’ (The Whitehouse 1984, p. 578). Such arguments have affinity with populationshaming but with two important differences. From the neoliberal perspective it was East/West rather than North/South political relations that were at issue, while the link between population policy and coercion was made from the point of view of the political right rather than left. A dichotomy was now constructed between coercion and voluntarism, the implication being that reproductive rights are antithetical to state intervention because this is ipso facto coercive. Population-skepticism is advanced here by displacing the problem of population growth onto a problematisation of the (socialist) authoritarian state.

While exponents of DTT are sceptical that population increase remains a problem since growth rates are slowing, the Whitehouse (1984, p. 576) advanced the bolder claim that growth is itself a ‘neutral phenomenon’. ‘The relationship between population growth and economic development is not necessarily a negative one’.

Julian Simon (1977), one of demographic revisionism’s principal proponents, maintains that population growth is in the longer run beneficial for economic growth and the environment because more people are a spur to and resource for hard work, ingenuity and technological innovation. This approach continues to furnish the standard riposte to limitsto-growth arguments: bigger populations are held to be sustainable because the inventiveness of more people will endow ecosystems with the resilience needed to accommodate them

Where population growth remains a problem, free markets were presented by the Reagan administration as a panacea. Thus ‘economic statism’ not only hinders development by stifling individual initiative; it also disrupts ‘the natural mechanism’ for slowing population growth. This natural ‘controlling factor’ is glossed as ‘the adjustment, by individual families, of reproductive behaviour to economic opportunity and aspiration. Historically, as opportunities and the standard of living rise’, it is argued, ‘the birth rate falls’. This is allegedly because ‘economic freedom’ engenders ‘economically rational behavior’ that includes responsible fertility choices

The ideological intentions of the Statement were made clear by a lightly-coded attack on the American new left. The Whitehouse policy response to population is advertised as ‘measured, modulated’, as opposed to ‘an overreaction by some’. Overreaction (in response to imminent environmental crisis) was identified in 1984 as an unfortunate consequence of rapid population growth having coincided with two regrettable factors that ‘hindered families and nations’. The first was foreign socialism; the second involved the counter-culture’s alleged ‘anti-intellectualism’, attributed here to anxieties caused by the West’s rapid modernisation. Cultural pessimism, rather than material concerns about sustainability, was thus identified as the source of domestic population anxiety. This interpretation left the way clear for a ‘rapid and responsible development of natural resources’, that is, the sustained economic growth through technologically-enhanced development that revisionists and neoliberals associated with population growth. For the radical right, in sum, the problem of population growth simply evaporated since in the West it had been merely a delusion of left-wing infantilism, while in poorer countries the solution lay in liberalised markets whose congenial effects on fertility choices would be complemented by the efficiency of privatised health services.

Before leaving this category of population-skepticism it is important to notice how social conservatism was also incorporated. Once population growth had been discounted as a relevant issue it became easier for social conservatives to instigate changes that would not only undermine support for population policies but also direct funding away from family planning programs. The defining issue here was abortion. While abortion had been viewed as an integral part of family planning by much of the population establishment, the Reagan administration’s emphasis on human lives included the unborn whose rights coincided with its pro-life policy. Population policies must, the Whitehouse insisted, be ‘consistent with respect for human dignity and family values’, including religious values. Abortion was now scuttled into the category of disrespectful (‘repugnant’) coercion. ‘Attempts to use abortion, involuntary sterilization, or other coercive measures in family planning’, it stated, ‘must be shunned’ (The Whitehouse 1984, p. 578). This judgement was not merely rhetorical: it had immediate practical implications for family planning organizations, NGOs, the UNFPA itself, which now lost US funding even if they only in principle supported abortion.

By placing social and religious conservatism at the heart of American population policy, the Republicans gave succor to traditional antipathies to modern contraception and women’s reproductive autonomy while introducing an additional level of value-conflict into a field where secular attitudes had formerly dominated. This opened a new dimension in the population-silencing frame. Asking why population growth now attracts so little attention in the United States, Martha Campbell cites ‘anti-abortion activists, religious leaders and conservative think tanks’ as a major cause (Campbell 2007, p. 240). As religious voices have become more strident in a context of multiculturalist respect for diversity and neo-conservative support, espousing population concerns that imply anti-natalism has correspondingly become more risky.

Skepticism also has a more political dimension inasmuch as it is reinforced by revisionist claims that population growth is advantageous: a view that is congruent with neoliberal desires for sustained economic growth and anathema to limits-to-growth arguments.

Population-declinism is a corollary of population-skepticism in that it is an expression of the final stage of demographic transition. It warrants its own discursive category, however, because it differs from skepticism in two significant ways: regarding mood and policy implications. Its affective tenor is quite different from the dynamic, pro-growth bullishness of political skepticism. A symptom of completing transition is that the population ages. This phenomenon engenders a sense of melancholia and loss connected to fears of relative decline; it is despondent about completing transition. Population declinism is currently powerful in precluding enthusiasm for population stabilization because rather than welcoming ageing as a sign that modernity’s enormous demographic expansion is ending, it promulgates images of enervation and decay in which the faltering powers and risk-averse outlooks ascribed to older people are attributed to whole regions (like ‘old Europe’). For declinists, low-fertility societies are destined to fail relative to more youthful, energetic competitors, with feebleness in the global economy accompanying weakness in the military theatre (Jackson and Howe 2008). The remedy is to encourage renewed growth. Such anxieties induce skepticism. While the latter rejects state interference in influencing population numbers, regarding it as unnecessary, inefficacious and coercive, population declinists do advocate interventionist policies. Unlike earlier limits-to-growth exponents, however, they promote pro-, rather than anti-, natalism, alongside immigration, in order to rejuvenate developed world populations (Commission of the European Communities 2005, Dixon and Margolis 2006). In 2009 almost half the governments in these countries regarded their population growth as too low

The power of declinism is such that this is rarely complemented by consideration of whether upward trends enhance quality of life or the environmental systems on which it depends

The principal danger of declinism is that it operates within a short timeframe that focuses on temporary fiscal and productivity challenges, yet its demographic remedies are likely to aggravate unsustainability later on.

Population-decomposing. A fourth category of silencing discourse

Talking about population as a totality that can be planned and managed has come to be regarded as not only political dangerous but also methodologically crude. This is a more elusive discursive effect than the first three categories but it has been effective in disenfranchising the population question in three ways: normative, methodological and ontological. Normatively, population-decomposing has been effective in rejecting ‘the numbers game’. This is congruent with population-shaming and political skepticism but this argument is rather different in its aversion to referencing population size as such. The numbers game is played by those who worry that the mass of human flesh is unsustainable or that thickening population densities degrade wellbeing.

Iconic texts like Paul Ehrlich’s The Population Bomb were explicit about population being a numbers game. In light of an imminent environmental crisis, Ehrlich (1972, preface) defined population control as ‘the conscious regulation of the numbers of human beings to meet the needs not just of individual families, but of society as a whole’. In other words, reproduction was understood as an other-regarding act. Ehrlich (1972, p. 3f.) had concluded that ‘no matter how you slice it, population is a numbers game’. He was probably referring here to the need for statistical familiarity with the properties of exponential growth, but to critics his work suggested an equation between the numbers game and state-imposed coercion. As a consequence the focus on population size and growth rates, especially when linked to targets and sanctions, fell into disrepute. This antipathy is encapsulated in UNFPA’s observation that since the mid-1990s, there has been ‘a shift in population policy and programs away from a focus on human numbers’ to a focus on ‘human lives’. Policies based on perceptions of a ‘race between numbers and resources’ are eschewed as synonymous with a ‘numbers game’ presented as antithetical to human rights (UNFPA, n.d., p. 4, UNFPA 2008, p. 1). In sum, even to focus on overall demographic quantities becomes anathema to personal choice and liberty. Reproduction is recast as a self-regarding act. One outcome has been to devolve population issues into matters of reproductive health and individual welfare entitlements.

The change of emphasis they entail has helped to exclude discussions about overall numbers while supporting the view that population is best approached at an individual or familial level.

Its disavowal of the numbers game, provoking critics like Ehrlich (2008, p. 107) to lament the way environmental repercussions of population growth now succumbed to ‘a narrow focus on issues of reproductive rights and maternal and child health’. The focus is in no way reprehensible but it has had the effect of displacing population growth as a global environmental issue. Campbell (2007, pp. 237, 243) cites Cairo as ‘the turning point in removing the population subject from policy discourse’, noting that talking about population became politically incorrect thereafter because it was perceived as disadvantageous to women.

This decomposing trend has been reinforced by the way aggregated population numbers have come to be regarded as methodologically and statistically crude, thus further undermining the possibility of advancing (neo-) Malthusian arguments. Figures at a more fine-grained level make less obvious headline news or dramatic narratives. Complementing new emphasis on demographic complexity is a widespread view that population dynamics such as age composition or urbanization are more relevant for policymaking than broader trajectories of population size. This, too, dissolves narrative impact by translating demographic trends into numerous policy challenges. These disaggregating effects thus serve to de-politicize and de-problematize the issue because as data has been refined, the demographic phenomena that mobilized players of the numbers game are occluded.

Demography as a discipline has itself, moreover, become more closely modelled on economics and concerned with economic data, thus sharing with economics its own movement away from macro-level approaches towards micro-level, statistical studies where individuals feature as rational agents making choices on the basis of cost–benefit analysis. Le Bras maintains that every branch of demographic analysis has been renewed in this direction over the past two decades. ‘In fertility studies, the dominant position is now occupied by microeconomic models of the family’ based on work by Gary Becker and George Schulz (Le Bras 2008, p. xi). Ehrlich also argues that as a discipline, demography ‘has largely diverged from environmental concerns and the broad analyses of social structures’ it formerly undertook. It now ‘focuses on measuring and modelling the dynamics of various populations’: a process judged valuable but peripheral to ‘the really big demographic issue’ of the environmental cost of population growth and its rectification (Ehrlich 2008, p. 103). It might also be noted that macro-level analysis was formerly associated with structural, Marxist approaches that have themselves fallen from grace as planning regimes have succumbed to more laissez-faire frameworks emphasizing individual decision-making. In sum, the normative and methodological dimensions of population-decomposing together help to demolish the framework in which population numbers matter and in which society has an interest in and responsibility for sustainable levels. This makes it difficult to identify, problematize or debate population growth as a social issue amenable to democratic debate or collective action.

As advanced countries have developed service or digital economies, and as the more obviously material costs of industrialization have become less emphasized, so attention to the material needs and costs of more bodies, qua needy biological entities engaged in physical labor, has also waned. Diane Coyle (1997) writes evocatively of a ‘weightless world’ and urges governments to embrace an age of de-materialization. This complements a tendency to understand social systems in virtual terms, with production and consumption re-figured as virtual flows of data, symbols and images that can be regarded as having little actual impact on the environment. Yet a corresponding emphasis on the human capital that drives the knowledge economy detracts from the space that embodied humans require and ignores the consumer durables – like cars, refrigerators, plastics, swimming pools – they desire. It permits an illicit substitution of the idea of sustained, indefinite growth for earlier recognition of the material limits of a finite planet.

From a virtual viewpoint there is in this lightness of being no obvious limit to the numbers the earth can sustain or to their capacity to invent new technologies that will render resources infinitely elastic and felicitously ethereal. This surely rests on a dangerous illusion. Population-fatalism In a final discursive category, the term population-fatalism captures some contemporary British inquiries into challenges posed by population growth. Because these are testimony to renewed concern about expanding numbers, they are suggestive of a return of the population question. They are nonetheless distinctive precisely because their overall tone is not fatalistic: they are mainly confident that the challenges of 9 billion (70 million in the United Kingdom) can be met. But they are fatalist in treating population growth as a given; as an aggravating or critical factor they are powerless to change and reluctant to address. Instead, they identify challenges and calculate abatement costs. This distinguishes their arguments from: population-skepticism, which does not see population growth as a problem; population-declinism, which encourages population growth to foreclose shrinkage; population-decomposing, which disavows the very framework of numbers. But it shares their antipathy to antinatalist policy and is probably apprehensive about population-shaming.

The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change is a good example of population-fatalism. Although population growth is included as a significant contributor to global warming there is no suggestion that a demographic element might be incorporated into climate change policy (Stern 2006, p. 12). This formula of neglectful concern has been the hallmark of other recent studies, which prefer technological solutions to controversial political interventions.

Future of Food and Farming: Challenges and Choices for Global Sustainability cites population growth as an urgent challenge in light of the need ‘to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more can be fed sustainably and equitably’ (Foresight 2011, introduction, p. 9). But in neither case is there any suggestion that further population growth might be tackled. The Economist’s (2011) ‘The 9 billion people question’ and the Institution of Mechanical Engineers’ ‘Population: One Planet, Too Many People?’ (2011) follow a similar logic, with (bio)technological solutions being proffered for a demographic fait accompli.

Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution’s The Environmental Impacts of Demographic Change in the UK (2011) goes further by explicitly excluding population growth as an appropriate policy domain (Coole 2012b). Despite acknowledging that ‘total population is likely to continue to grow, at a historically relatively high rate’ in the United Kingdom and that some regions suffer ‘obvious pressure on infrastructure, services and environment’ (RCEP 2011, 2.22, 6.2), the report constructs an either/or choice between seeking to influence demographic change or trying to mitigate its environmental impact. It unequivocally opts for the latter, declaring the former not ‘a good basis for policy’ because unspecified ‘objections on social and ethical grounds would outweigh the environmental gains’

Conclusion

I have asked why, as the twenty-first century proceeds inexorably towards a world population of 9 billion plus, there is so little discussion of the socio-ecologically deleterious effects of continuing population growth. I identified five discourses that together explain why there is currently no politically acceptable framework within which population numbers can be problematized or remedial action commended. While they are mutually-supporting in their silencing effects, two of these discourses seem especially powerful: population shaming, because it renders the population question so morally treacherous, and population-skepticism, because of its complacency and its congeniality for hegemonic pro-growth ideologies. I have not attempted to refute such arguments but I have suggested that they are not good enough reasons for suppressing discussion about population numbers and the merits of fewer people, especially as renewed public concerns emerge over resource insecurity, biodiversity, climate change and high-density urban living.

Posted in Biodiversity Loss, Climate Change, Deforestation, Disease, Overpopulation, Pesticides, Pollution, Population, Transportation, Water Pollution, Wildfire | Tagged , , , , , , , | 14 Comments

David Fridley, LBNL scientist, on why alternative energy won’t save us

Preface.  I’ve sought out David Fridley’s insights since I first met him in the Oakland Peak Oil group that formed in 2004.  That group eventually dissolved, but David’s expertise is still sought out by many of us following energy decline. This post is a summary of the David Fridley’s 9-page Alternative Energy Challenges.  It is as true today as it was in 2011 when I first published it at energyskeptic. The laws of physics and thermodynamics simply don’t change, so renewables can’t replace fossil fuels.  And besides, they aren’t renewable, merely rebuildable using fossil fuels for every single step of their life cycle and maintenance.  And their lifespans are short — 18-25 years for solar, 20 years for wind onshore, and 15 years offshore, so they can’t outlast fossil fuel depletion for long.

David Fridley has been a staff scientist in the Energy Analysis Program at the Berkeley National Laboratory in California since 1995. He has more than 30 years of experience working and living in China in the energy sector, and is a fluent Mandarin speaker. He spent twelve years working in the petroleum industry both as a consultant on downstream oil markets and as business development manager for Caltex China. He has written and spoken extensively on the energy and ecological limits of biofuels, and he is a Fellow of Post Carbon Institute.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Fridley D (2010) Alternative Energy Challenges. Post Carbon Institute.

http://energy-reality.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/10_Alternative-Energy-Challenges_R2_012913.pdf

There are 2 main kinds of alternative energy:

  1. Substitutes for petroleum liquids: ethanol, biodiesel, biobutanol, dimethyl ether, coal-to-liquids, tar sands, oil shale), both from biomass and fossil feedstocks.
  2. Generation and storage of electric power: wind, solar photovoltaics, solar thermal, tidal, biomass, fuel cells, batteries.

Nature provided free solar energy over millions of years to convert biomass into conventional fossil fuels, which are energy-dense solids, liquids, and gases. All you need to do are extract and transport them.

Alternative energy depends heavily on engineered equipment and infrastructure for capture or conversion. However, the full supply chain for alternative energy, from raw materials to manufacturing, is still very dependent on fossil fuel energy.

Money and carbon footprint the wrong metrics to evaluate alternate energy

The public discussion about alternative energy is often reduced to an assessment of its monetary costs versus those of traditional fossil fuels, often in comparison to their carbon footprints. This kind of reductionism to a simple monetary metric obscures the complex issues surrounding the potential viability, scalability, feasibility, and suitability of pursuing specific alternative technology paths. Although money is necessary to develop alternative energy, money is simply a token for mobilizing a range of resources used to produce energy. At the level of physical requirements, assessing the potential for alternative energy development becomes much more complex since it involves issues of end-use energy requirements, resource use trade-offs (including water and land), and material scarcity.

The discussion is further complicated by political biases, ignorance of basic science, and a lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the problem facing societies accustomed to inexpensive fossil energy as the era of abundance concludes.

Alternate energy can not be easily substituted for oil, gas, or coal 

It’s assumed alternative energy will seamlessly substitute for the oil, gas, or coal. Not true. Integrating alternatives into our current energy system will require enormous investment in both new equipment and infrastructure—along with the resources required for their manufacture—at a time when capital to make such investments has become harder to secure. This raises the question of the suitability of moving toward an alternative energy future with an assumption that the structure of our current large-scale, centralized energy system should be maintained. Since alternative energy resources vary greatly by location, it may be necessary to consider different forms of energy for different localities.
Scalability and Timing

Alternative energy must be supplied at a reasonable cost in the time frame and volume needed.

Many alternatives have been successfully demonstrated at a small scale (algae-based diesel, cellulosic ethanol, biobutanol, thin-film solar), but that doesn’t mean it will work when scaled up to a large facility.

Since alternative energy relies on engineering, manufacturing, and construction of equipment and manufacturing processes for its production, output grows in a step-wise function only as new capacity comes online, which in turn is reliant on timely procurement of the input energy and other required input materials. This difference between “production” of alternative energy and “extraction” of fossil fuels can result in marked constraints on the ability to increase the production of an alternative energy.

Commercialization

Often, newspaper reports of a breakthrough are accompanied by suggestions that such a breakthrough represents a possible “solution” to our energy challenges. In reality, the average time frame between laboratory demonstration of feasibility and large-scale commercialization is from 20 to 25 years. Processes need to be perfected and optimized, patents developed, demonstration tests performed, pilot plants built and evaluated, environmental impacts assessed, and engineering, design, siting, financing, economic, and other studies undertaken.

Substitutability

Ideally, an alternative energy form would integrate directly into the current energy system as a “drop-in” substitute for an existing form without requiring further infrastructure changes.

This is rarely the case, and the lack of substitutability is particularly pronounced in the case of electric vehicles. Although it is possible to generate the needed electricity from wind or solar power, the prerequisites to achieving this are extensive. Electric car proliferation at a meaningful scale would require extensive infrastructure changes including retooling factories to produce the vehicles, developing a large-scale battery industry and recharging facilities, building a maintenance and spare parts industry, integrating “smart grid” monitoring and control software and equipment, and of course, constructing additional generation and transmission capacity. All of this is costly. The development of wind and solar power electricity also requires additional infrastructure; wind and solar electricity must be generated where the best resources exist, which is often far from population centers. Thus extensive investment in transmission infrastructure to bring it to consumption centers is required. Today, ethanol can be blended with gasoline and used directly, but its propensity to absorb water and its high oxygen content make it unsuitable for transport in existing pipeline systems, and an alternative pipeline system to enable its widespread use would be materially and financially intensive.

While alternative energy forms may provide the same energy services as another form, they rarely substitute directly, and these additional material costs need to be considered.

Material Input Requirements

To make an alternative energy happen you need resources and energy, and if those are limited or expensive, that may limit how large or feasible it is. Especially if the technology depends on a rare earth element:

  • Fuel cells require platinum, palladium, and other rare earth elements
  • Solar photovoltaic technology requires gallium, and in some forms, indium
  • Advanced batteries rely on lithium
  • LED or organic LED (OLED) lighting (to save energy), requires the rare earths indium and gallium

Expressing the costs of alternative energy only in monetary terms obscures potential limits of the resource and energy inputs required. Successful deployment of a range of new energy technologies would substantially raise demand for a range of metals beyond the level of world production today.

Alternative energy production is reliant not only on a range of resource inputs, but also on fossil fuels for the mining of raw materials, transport, manufacturing, construction, maintenance, and decommissioning.

Currently, no alternative energy exists without fossil fuel inputs, and no alternative energy process can reproduce itself—that is, manufacture the equipment needed for its own production—without the use of fossil fuels. In this regard, alternative energy serves as a supplement to the fossil fuel base, and its input requirements may constrain its development in cases of either material or energy scarcity.

Intermittency

Modern societies expect that electrons will flow when a switch is flipped, that gas will flow when a knob is turned, and that liquid fuel will flow when the pump handle is squeezed. This system of continuous supply is possible because of our exploitation of large stores of fossil fuels, which are the result of millions of years of intermittent sunlight concentrated into a continuously extractable source of energy.

Alternative energies such as solar or wind power produce only intermittently as the sun shines or the wind blows.  Even biomass-based fuels depend on seasonal harvests of crops.

Integrating these energy forms into our current system creates challenges of balancing availability and demand, and it remains doubtful that these intermittent energy forms can provide a majority of our future energy needs in the same way that we expect energy to be available today.

The key to evening out the impact of intermittency is storage; that is, developing technologies and approaches that can store energy generated during periods of good wind and sun for use at other times. Many approaches have been proposed and tested, including compressed air storage, batteries, and the use of molten salts in solar thermal plants. The major drawbacks of all these approaches include the losses involved in energy storage and release, and the limited energy density that these storage technologies can achieve.

Energy Density

Energy density refers to the amount of energy that is contained in a unit of an energy form. It can be expressed in the amount of energy per unit of mass (weight), or in the amount of energy per unit of volume. Energy density has greatly influenced our choice of fuels.

The conversion to the use of coal in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was welcomed because coal provided twice as much energy as wood for the same weight of material. Similarly, the shift from coal to petroleum-powered ships in the early twentieth century was driven by the fact that petroleum possesses nearly twice the energy density of coal, allowing ships to go farther without having to stop for refueling.

Even in a motor vehicle’s inefficient internal combustion engine, a kilogram of highly energy dense gasoline—about 6 cups—allows us to move 3,000 pounds of metal roughly 11 miles.

Low energy density requires larger amounts of material or resources to provide the same amount of energy as a denser material or fuel.

Many alternative energies and storage technologies are characterized by low energy densities, and their deployment will result in higher levels of resource consumption.

Gasoline has 92 times the energy density of a lithium battery in an electric vehicle (Lithium ion batteries can contain only 0.5 megajoules per kilogram (MJ/kg) of battery compared to 46 MJ/kg for gasoline). Advances in battery technology are being announced regularly, but they all come up against the theoretical limit of energy density in batteries of only 3 MJ/kg.

Energy Return on Investment

The complexity of our economy and society is a function of the amount of net energy we have available. “Net energy” is, simply, the amount of energy remaining after we consume energy to produce energy.

Consuming energy to produce energy is unavoidable, but only that which is not consumed to produce energy is available to sustain our industrial, transport, residential, commercial, agricultural, and military activities.

The ratio of the amount of energy we put into energy production and the amount of energy we produce is called “energy return on investment” (EROI). EROI can be very high e.g. 100:1, or 100 units of energy produced for every one unit used to produce it—an “energy source”), or low (0.8:1, or only 0.8 units of energy produced for every one unit used in production—an “energy sink”).

Society requires energy sources, not energy sinks, and the magnitude of EROI for an energy source is a key indicator of its contribution to maintenance of social and economic complexity.

Net energy availability has varied tremendously over time and in different societies. In the last advanced societies that relied only on solar power (sun, water power, biomass, and the animals that depended on biomass in the 17th and early 18th centuries, the amount of net energy available was low and dependent largely on the food surpluses provided by farmers. At that time, only 10-15% of the population was not involved in energy production.

As extraction of coal, oil, and natural gas increased in the 19th & 20th centuries, society was increasingly able to substitute the energy from fossil fuels for manual or animal labor, thereby freeing an even larger proportion of society from direct involvement in energy production. In 1870, 70% of the U.S. population were farmers; today less than 2%, and every aspect of agricultural production now relies heavily on petroleum or natural gas.

The same is true in other energy sectors: Currently, less than 0.5 percent of the U.S. labor force (about 710,000 people) is directly involved in coal mining, oil and gas extraction, petroleum refining, pipeline transport, and power generation, transmission, and distribution.

The challenge of a transition to alternative energy is whether such energy surpluses can be sustained, and  whether the type of social and economic specialization we enjoy today can be maintained.

Indeed, one study estimates that the minimum EROI for the maintenance of industrial society is 5:1, suggesting that no more than 20 percent of social and economic resources can be dedicated to the production of energy without undermining the structure of industrial society.

In general, most alternative energy sources have low EROI values.

References

John Whims, Pipeline Considerations for Ethanol, Kansas State University Department of Agricultural Economics (Manhattan, KS: Kansas State University, August 2002),
http://www.agmrc.org/media/cms/ksupipelineethl_8BA5CDF1FD179.pdf

Charles A.S. Hall, Robert Powers, and William Schoenberg, “Peak Oil, EROI, Investments and the Economy in an Uncertain Future,” in Biofuels, Solar and Wind as Renewable Energy Systems: Benefits and Risks, ed. David Pimentel (New York: Springer, 2008), 109-132.

Posted in Alternative Energy, An Overview, EROEI Energy Returned on Energy Invested, Net Energy Cliff | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on David Fridley, LBNL scientist, on why alternative energy won’t save us

2008 National Academy of Sciences meeting on America’s Energy Future

Preface.  Hundreds of top scientists gathered in 2008 to discuss the future of energy in America at a time when oil prices were reaching record highs. And here we are again with record breaking prices and no reduction of our energy dependency.  Indeed, under Trump, Republicans tried to get rid of the CAFÉ standards for greater energy efficiency in vehicles and the Energy Star program which rates appliances for how energy efficient they are and how much money you could save.

James Schlesinger, former Secretary of Defense, CIA director, and first Secretary of Energy noted that in his 12-volume Study of History (1934-1961), historian Arnold Toynbee examined the trajectories of various human civilizations and asked why civilizations succeeded or failed. Most often they failed because of a challenge they could not meet. Today, the provision and use of energy pose “an immense challenge, both foreign and domestic”. Then he quoted Charles Galton Darwin, the grandson of the author of the Origin of Species:

“A thing that will assume enormous importance quite soon is the exhaustion of our fuel resources. Coal and oil have been accumulating in the earth for over 500 million years, and, at the present rates of demand for mechanical power, the estimates are that oil will be all gone in about a century, and coal probably in a good deal less than 500 years. For the present purpose, it does not matter if these are under-estimates; they could be doubled or trebled and still not affect the argument. Mechanical power comes from our reserves of energy, and we are squandering our energy capital quite recklessly. It will very soon be all gone, and in the long run we shall have to live from year to year on our earnings. “ Source: Charles Galton Darwin 1953 The Next Million Years

Darwin’s observations are as relevant today as they were a half century ago, Schlesinger observed. “We are going through our capital of inheritance at a remarkable pace.”

Now that we’re back in another energy crisis in 2022 with prices skyrocketing, nuclear power is again being touted as the Answer as a potential source of energy that does not release greenhouse gases during power generation. But while a nuclear revival is likely, Schlesinger said, a nuclear renaissance is not. Major problems regarding fuel cycles and waste storage remain to be solved. And the nuclear labor force has aged dramatically in recent decades, with much of the labor force now on the verge of retirement and far fewer trained workers ready to fill their shoes.

But Ernest Moniz, former Secretary of Energy, was skeptical about the merits of reprocessing back in 2008 because reprocessing technology currently in use can be used in nuclear weapons, and claims for the waste management benefits of reprocessing are exaggerated. John Holdren observed that reprocessing might reduce the volume of waste, but volume is not the constraint on the capacity of a waste repository. The constraint is the amount of heat generated by the waste, and that problem cannot be solved without reactors for reprocessing that are at least 40 to 50 years away. Reprocessing spent fuel makes nuclear energy “more complicated, more expensive, more proliferation prone, and more controversial. If you want nuclear energy to be rapidly expandable, and to take a bite out of the climate change problem, you want to make it as cheap as possible, as simple as possible, as proliferation resistant as possible, and as non-controversial as possible, and that means you don’t want to reprocess any time soon. If nuclear power is to provide a considerable portion of the future U.S. electrical power, we would have to have eight Yucca Mountains by the end of this century in order to store the spent fuel.”

And some more deja vu: U.S. dependence on other countries for oil has weakened the nation’s ability to influence the policies of those countries, said Schlesinger. The growth of oil revenues in countries like Iran and Venezuela has enabled them to be openly defiant with the United States in ways that would not have occurred a decade ago. Russia is reasserting itself after a decade of what it views as international humiliation. Even Saudi Arabia and other U.S. allies in the Gulf of Arabia are not as responsive to U.S. requests as they once were because of the immense increase in their financial assets.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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NRC (2008) The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting. The National Academies Press. 181 pages. https://doi.org/10.17226/12450

Foreword: A confluence of events is producing a growing sense of urgency about the role of energy in long-term U.S. economic vitality, national security, and climate change. Energy prices have been rising and are extremely volatile. The demand for energy has been increasing, especially in develop[1]ing countries. Energy supplies, and especially supplies of oil, lack long-term security in the face of political instability and resource limits. Concerns about carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, which currently supply most of the world’s energy, are growing. Investments in the infrastructure and technologies needed to develop alternate energy sources are inadequate. And societal concerns surround the large-scale deployment of some alternate energy sources such as nuclear power. All of these factors are affected to a great degree by government policies both here and abroad. To stimulate and inform a constructive national debate on these and other energy-related issues, the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering initiated in 2007 a major study, “America’s Energy Future: Technology Opportunities, Risks, and Tradeoffs.”

On March 12, 2008, the price of a barrel of light crude oil exceeded $110 for the first time in history. The next day, more than 800 people gathered in the auditorium of the National Academy of Sciences Building and over the Internet for the 2-day National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future. While the summit was designed to examine a broad range of energy sources and timeframes ranging years and decades into the future, record-high prices of oil were a constant reminder that the future is fast approaching. As Department of Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel Bodman said in addressing the summit, “The price of oil is so high that it has gotten everybody’s attention.”

A Growing Sense of Urgency

The use of energy permeates our lives. We use energy to cook, to light and heat our homes and commercial buildings, to power industry and agriculture, to transport people and goods, and to drive and fly. The products we buy and the services we employ are made possible by the use of energy. Our well-being, prosperity, and security are all built on the ingenious provision and application of various forms of energy.

The second broad observation to emerge from the study Schlesinger co-chaired is that U.S. dependence on foreign oil is not going to end in the foreseeable future (Victor et al., 2006). One reason for this continuing reliance is the sheer size of the U.S. market. As Paul Portney pointed out, about one person in every 20 on Earth lives in the United States. Yet the U.S. population currently uses about one in every four barrels of oil that are produced. This high usage is why the United States currently imports about two-thirds of its oil. “We use oil in gross disproportion to our numbers,” Portney said.

Past calls to achieve energy independence have failed, Schlesinger observed. In 1973, President Richard Nixon launched Project Independence, which laid out a path to becoming energy self-sufficient by the year 1980. Between 1973 and 1980, imports of crude oil into the United States rose 60%, Schlesinger said. Since that time, they have tripled. “If we are seeking energy independence, we do not seem to be on the right track,” Schlesinger observed.

The main reason for increased imports is the nation’s continued reliance on petroleum for vehicle fuels. “We are not going to reach energy independence as long as the United States remains dependent on the internal combustion engine,” said Schlesinger. even as the fuel efficiency of vehicles improves, the larger number of vehicles caused by a larger population and more vehicles per person will at least partly offset efficiency gains. Furthermore, it takes 20 years to turn over the stock of cars, and older cars, which tend to stay on the road.

Many of the countries on which the United States relies for petroleum are located in unstable parts of the world, Portney observed. In addition, the rise of resource nationalism and the use of energy resources as a political tool have put constraints on oil production. More than 75 percent of the world’s oil reserves are now controlled by national oil companies, which tend to be less efficient at developing their resources (NPC, 2007).

Transporting supplies to market also can be a problem, Jeffery pointed out. Much of the world’s oil passes through a series of vulnerable points, leaving energy consumers susceptible to supply disruptions. Thirty-five percent of all the oil shipped in the world passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Another 34% passes through the Strait of Malacca on the way to China, Japan, and other Asian countries. About 8% passes through the Bab el Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. “Reliance on a small number of oil transit routes leaves world oil supplies open to the possibility of a sudden disruption, whether manmade or by a natural disaster,” Jeffery said.  Oil facilities also are attractive targets for terrorists, Schlesinger said.

A necessary urgency?

Despite the severe problems associated with energy production and use, many people at the summit expressed optimism that the problems can be overcome. Many new technologies are already available that can reduce energy consumption in transportation and in buildings and industry, and other promising technologies are being developed. Moreover, many more people are recognizing the urgency of the energy issue, Bodman observed, which has built support for one of the most important elements of a national strategy: a national imperative to act. “Perhaps as never before, the American people are calling for action,” he said.

Yet many speakers at the summit also asked whether the level of urgency being expressed by the public and by policymakers is sufficient. New technologies can take a long time to develop and implement, especially given the large investments that must be made for new technologies to have a substantial effect in the energy sector. In light of projections that call for the use of energy to double during the 21st century, said Ray Orbach, “I think one can legitimately ask, ‘Where will the energy come from?’”

“We don’t seem to be able to generate the sense of urgency that’s required to address this problem,” said Ernest Moniz. “We talk about doing this and doing that, and before you know it a decade has passed. We can’t afford to waste another 10 or 15 years. We can’t get there from here if we do that. The sense of urgency is one that we need somehow to capture.”

Davis estimated that annual global energy use has probably risen at least 20-fold over the past century.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Even if all use of fossil fuels were to cease today, these models predict another 0.6-degree centigrade increase in temperature during the 21st century, Davis observed. Since all of the IPCC scenarios assume continued use of fossil fuels, all of the scenarios assume temperature increases larger than that amount.

Petroleum and Natural Gas

As the use of energy has risen, questions have multiplied about whether adequate supplies will be available to meet demand. The world’s oil still comes largely from giant and super giant oil fields that were discovered more than 50 years ago; James Schlesinger observed at the summit. Many of these fields are now going into decline, including the Burgan oil field in Kuwait, Canterell in Mexico, the North Sea, and the north slope of Alaska. The Saudis are trying to sustain production in Ghawar, the massive field that provides more than 6% of the world’s oil, but sooner or later that field, too, will go into decline [it has].

“We face a painful transition,” said Schlesinger, “to a future in which we hit a limitation, a plateau, in the ability to produce crude oil.” Schlesinger pointed out that the concept of “peak oil”—when production reaches a maximum and begins to decline—is drawn from geological analogies and ignores such things as technology and the impact of price rises. Nevertheless, supplies of petroleum will be increasingly constrained. EIA projections call for the production of conventional oil to rise from the current 86 million barrels a day to about 118 million barrels a day by 2030. “That means that we must find or develop, given the decline curve and higher aspirations, the equivalent of nine Saudi Arabia’s. I think the probability of being that successful is very low,” said Schlesinger.

Furthermore, with many oil and gas fields under the control of national oil companies, access to these resources is becoming more restricted. For example, Russia has reasserted its control over oil production, Schlesinger observed, and the Russians have made it clear that they are not trying to solve the world’s energy problems. Other countries have taken a similar stance: they will develop their resources based on their own self-interests.

As Ernest Moniz pointed out, the United States increasingly has turned to natural gas for electricity production, partly because the capital costs of natural gas plants are lower than those for other energy sources and because natural gas produces lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions than do either petroleum or coal. But the increased use of natural gas has driven up its price. As a result, U.S. manufacturers that have depended on natural gas for direct energy conversion or as a feedstock are being driven overseas.

National Petroleum Council on Hard truths about oil and gas

The infrastructure requirements are particularly demanding, Nelson pointed out. “We have been living off an infrastructure surplus in the energy business that occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and it’s about used up.” The electrical grid infrastructure, the transportation infrastructure, the coal production infrastructure, and other sources’ production and supply systems require attention. “And the size and scale of this business is such that we’re talking about a lot of money,” said Nelson.

Since the early 1980s, relatively few young workers have entered the energy sector, Nelson pointed out, and relatively few people are in energy-oriented university programs in the United States. Making up the deficit is “not entirely possible from U.S. graduates.”

Nelson’s overall conclusion at the summit was that the challenge currently facing the United States regarding oil and natural gas is unprecedented. Meeting that challenge will require global efforts on multiple fronts, long time horizons, and major additional investments. There is no single easy solution, he said. Individuals, organizations, and governments need to begin taking action now and plan for a sustained commitment.

COAL

As Jeff Bingaman pointed out, the United States has more energy resources in coal reserves than the Middle East has in petroleum reserves. But the current methods for use of coal, either for electricity generation or for the production of liquid fuels, produce substantial amounts of carbon dioxide. For example, even if the conversion of coal to liquid fuels were 100 percent efficient, 1 ton of coal would yield about a half ton of fuel and 2 tons of carbon dioxide. The United States could “wind up spending a great deal of money on coal liquefaction plants that would then be rendered uneconomic in light of future developments related to global warming,” said Bingaman

 

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The Vory. Russia’s Super Mafia

Preface. After reading this book about the history of organized crime in Russia, I thought surely Russia must be the most corrupt nation in the world.  But amazingly there are 47 countries that are ranked even lower of the 180 nations listed at transparency.org’s 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index.  A score of 100 is squeaky clean, 0 is highly corrupt. The top score is 88 (Denmark, New Zealand, Finland). Russia scores 29. The USA rates a dismal 67, down from 76 in 2015.

Nor surprisingly, there’s a strong correlation between corruption and life expectancy.  The least corrupt nations have longer lifespans on average (https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/). The U.S. is the only developed nation that doesn’t offer universal health care, and ranked at #46, shameful since the U.S. is the richest country that has ever or will ever exist.  Russia ranks 113th.

Corruption is perhaps another reason mighty Russia has lost thousands of soldiers in their fight against puny Ukraine so far in 2022. After reading this book, it’s impossible not to imagine that vast amounts of Russian war money is being diverted into private bank accounts rather than food and supplies for the front lines.  Tanks are running of gas, soldiers loot stores for food. Conscripts are poorly trained or motivated, so morale is low.  This can be seen with an astounding seven Russian generals killed so far, since they have to go to the front lines to make soldiers fight. On top of that many generals are incompetent, achieving that rank through loyalty.

Even if Russia backs out of Ukraine, in the long run they’ll win — with their vast natural gas reserves they can demand high prices and concessions from Europe.  The U.S. can’t possibly come to the rescue since 7 of the 8 fracked oil & gas basins are in decline, and the Permian has perhaps 5 to 10 years left (Saputra W et al (2022) Forecast of Economic Tight Oil and Gas Production in Permian Basin. Energies.) Not to mention years to build LNG facilities and $250 million LNG ships.

We can only hope that this war doesn’t go nuclear, the greatest existential threat, since even a small nuclear war could kill over a billion people.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

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Galeotti, M. 2018. The Vory. Russia’s Super Mafia. Yale University Press.

About the only thing which could transform Volodya into a relaxed, open and even animated human being was the chance to enthuse about his Dragunov sniper’s rifle and his kills. He always had money to burn at a time when the majority were eking out the most marginal of lives, often living with parents or juggling multiple jobs. It all made sense, though, when I learned that he had become what was known in Russian crime circles as a torpedo, a hit man. As the values and structures of Soviet life crumbled and fell, organized crime was emerging from the ruins, no longer subservient to the corrupt Communist Party bosses and the black-market millionaires. As it rose, it was gathering to itself a new generation of recruits, including damaged and disillusioned veterans of the USSR’s last war. Some were bodyguards, some were runners, some were leg breakers and some – like Volodya and his beloved rifle – were killers.

I never found out what happened to Volodya. He probably ended up as a casualty of the gang wars of the 1990s, fought out with car bombs, drive-by shootings and knives in the night. That decade saw the emergence of a tradition of monumental memorialization, as fallen gangsters were buried in full ‘Godfather’ pomp, with black limousines threading through paths lined with white carnations and tombs marked with huge headstones showing idealized representations of the dead. Vastly expensive (the largest cost upwards of $250,000, at a time when the average wage was close to a dollar a day) and stupendously tacky, these monuments showed the dead with the spoils of their criminal lives: the Mercedes, the designer suit, the heavy gold chain.

Before we knew it, chief constables in the UK were predicting that Russian mobsters would be having gunfights in leafy Surrey suburbs by 2000 and scholars were talking of a global ‘Pax Mafiosa’ as organized-crime gangs divided the world between them. Of course, this didn’t happen, nor did the Russian gangs sell nuclear bombs to terrorists, buy up Third World countries, take over the Kremlin or accomplish any other of the outlandish ambitions with which they were credited. The 1990s were the glory days of the Russian gangsters, though, and since then, under Putin, gangsterism on the streets has given way to kleptocracy in the state.

I’ve watched it rise and, if not fall, then certainly change, becoming increasingly tamed by a political elite far more ruthless in its own way than the old criminal bosses.

The tsarist police record for Joseph Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili, known by the revolutionary codename ‘Koba’ and, later, rather more so as Stalin. While no bank robber or highwayman himself, Stalin played a crucial role in working with the vory to raise funds for the Bolsheviks. This early willingness to find common cause with the underworld would later be applied to his management of the Gulags.

Of course, all criminal subcultures have their own languages of sorts, spoken and visual.2 The Japanese yakuza sport elaborate tattoos of dragons, heroes and chrysanthemums. American street toughs have their gang colors. Every criminal specialism has its technical terms, every criminal milieu its slang. These serve all kinds of purposes, from distinguishing insider from outsider to demonstrating commitment to the group. However, the Russians are truly distinctive in the scale and homogeneity of their languages, both spoken and visual – striking evidence not just of the coherence and complexity of their underworld culture but also their determination actively to reject and even challenge mainstream society.

The tattoos were the mark of a vor, the Russian word for ‘thief’, but a general term for a member of the Soviet underworld, the so-called ‘thieves’ world’ or vorovskoi mir, and life in the Gulag labor camp system. Most of the tattoos were still recognizable and an expert on ‘reading’ them was summoned; in this case, a former prison warder turned police investigator. Within an hour, they had been decoded. The leaping stag on his breast? That symbolized a term spent in one of the northern labor camps. They were known for their harsh regimes and thus survival was a mark of pride in the macho world of the professional criminal. The knife wrapped in chains on his right forearm? The man had committed a violent assault while behind bars, but not a murder. Crosses on three of his knuckles? Three separate prison sentences served. Perhaps the most telling was the fouled anchor on his upper arm, to which a barbed wire surround had clearly been added later: a navy veteran who had been sentenced to prison for a crime committed while in service.

The vory subculture dates back to the earlier, tsarist years, but was radically reshaped in Stalin’s Gulags of the 1930s to the 1950s where criminals adopted an uncompromising and unapologetic rejection of the legitimate world, visibly tattooing themselves as a dramatic gesture of defiance.

Over time, the code of the vory would change, as a new generation were enticed by the opportunities in collaborating with a cynical and vicious state on their own terms. The vory would lose their dominance, taking a subordinate role to the barons of the black market and the corrupt Communist Party bosses, but they did not disappear in the grey 1960s and 1970s, and as the Soviet system began to grind towards its inevitable collapse, they emerged anew. Again, they reinvented themselves to meet the needs of the moment. In post-Soviet Russia, they blended in with the new elite. The tattoos disappeared, or were hidden beneath the crisp white shirts of a rapacious new breed of gangster-businessman, the avtoritet (‘authority’). In the 1990s, everything was up for grabs, and the new vory reached out with both hands. State assets were privatized for kopeks on the ruble, businesses forced to pay for protection that they might not need, and, as the Iron Curtain fell, the Russian gangsters crashed out into the rest of the world.

Since the restoration of central authority under President Vladimir Putin from 2000, the new vory have adapted again, taking a lower profile, even working for the state. In the process, Russian organized crime has become at once an international bugbear, a global brand and a contested concept. Some see in it an informal arm of the Kremlin, with Russia airily dismissed as a ‘mafia state’. To others, the descendants of the vory are just an inchoate collection of troublesome but unremarkable gangsters. Watch Western media representations, though, and you would be tempted to see them as a global threat in every arena, the most savage of thugs, the most cunning of hackers, the most skilled of killers. The irony is that almost all of these perceptions are true in some ways, even if often misleading or mobilized for the wrong reasons.

The challenge of Russian organized crime is a formidable one. At home, it undermines efforts to control and diversify the Russian economy. It is a brake on efforts to bring better governance to Russia. It has penetrated the financial and political structures of the country and also tarnishes the ‘national brand’ abroad (the Russian gangster and corrupt businessman are ubiquitous stereotypes). It is also a global challenge. Russian or Eurasian organized crime – however this may be defined – operates actively, aggressively and entrepreneurially around the world as one of the most dynamic forces within the new transnational underworld. It arms insurgents and gangsters, traffics drugs and people, and peddles every criminal service from money laundering to computer hacking. It is as much a symptom as a cause of the failure of the Russian government and political elite to establish and empower the rule of law, while much of the rest of the world remains willing, indeed often delighted, to launder the gangsters’ cash and sell them expensive penthouse apartments.

There are 3 key themes of this book.

  1. Russian gangsters are unique, emerging through times of rapid political, social and economic change – from the fall of the tsars, through Stalin’s whirlwind of modernization, to the collapse of the USSR – which brought specific pressures and opportunities. While on one level a gangster is a gangster throughout the world, and arguably the Russians are becoming part of an increasingly homogenized global underworld, the culture, structures and activities of the Russian criminals were for a long time distinctive, not least in their relationship to mainstream society.
  2. The second central theme is that the gangsters hold up a dark mirror to Russian society. Exploring the evolution of the Russian underworld also says something about Russian history and culture, and is especially meaningful today, at a time when the boundaries between crime, business and politics are important but all too often indistinct.
  3. Russian gangsters have not only been shaped by a changing Russia, they have also shaped it. Part of the value of this book is, I hope, to address the myths about criminal dominance of the new Russia, but at the same time to look at the ways that its ‘upperworld’ has been influenced by its underworld. As tattooed ex-convicts are replaced by a new breed of globally minded criminal-businessmen, does this represent the house-training of the gangsters or the criminalization of Russia’s economy and society? Is this a ‘mafia state’ – and what does that even mean?

Do the gangsters run Russia? No, of course not, and I have met many determined, dedicated Russian police officers and judges committed to the struggle against them. However, businesses and politicians alike use many methods that owe more to the vorovskoi mir than legal practice, the state hires hackers and arms gangsters to fight its wars, and you can hear vor songs and vor slang on the streets. Even President Putin uses it from time to time to reassert his streetwise credentials. Perhaps the real question, with which this book ends, is not so much how far the state has managed to tame the gangsters, but how far the values and practices of the vory have come to shape modern Russia.

Vanka Kain, gangster, kidnapper, burglar and sometime informant, was the scourge of Moscow in the 1730s and 1740s. When Princess Elizabeth seized power in a coup in 1741, she offered amnesties to outlaws willing to turn on their colleagues. Kain eagerly seized the opportunity to wash away the taint of almost a decade’s crimes. While officially becoming a government informant and thief taker, Kain actually continued his crimes, corrupting his handlers at the Sysknoi prikaz, the Investigators’ Bureau. But such relationships acquire their own consuming dynamic. He began by simply gifting them a share of his loot, usually imported luxuries such as Italian scarves and Rhenish wine. Over time, his handlers grew greedier and more demanding, and Kain was forced into increasingly daring and dangerous crimes to satisfy them. Eventually this came to light and Kain was tried and sentenced to a lifetime’s hard labor. Kain became a romantic hero in Russian folklore. Of course, the criminal as hero appears in popular culture throughout the world, from Robin Hood to Ned Kelly. But unlike Robin Hood, the Russian thief is not fighting against an exploitative usurper. He is not misunderstood, not a victim of a deprived childhood, not a good man in a bad spot. He is just an ‘honest thief’ in a world where the only distinction is between those thieves who are honest about what they are and those who hide their self-interested criminality beneath boyars’ capes, bureaucrats’ uniforms, judges’ robes and businessmen’s suits, whichever best fits the times. Kain’s story could be that of a twentieth-century vor, or even today’s: the gangster whom the authorities think they can control, yet who ends up corrupting them. Swap horses for BMWs, and fur capes for tracksuits, and Kain’s story could be played out in post-Soviet Russia without a hint of anachronism.

Some criminals revel in their history, even if it is typically mythologised, romanticised or simply invented. Thus, the Chinese triads represent themselves as the descendants of a centuries-long tradition of secret societies struggling against unjust tyrants. The yakuza claim their roots are not in the bandit kabuki mono (‘crazy ones’) who terrorized seventeenth-century Japan or the hired thugs of gambling and pedlar bosses, but the chivalrous samurai warrior caste and the public-spirited machi yakko (‘servants of the town’) militias formed to resist the kabuki mono.3 By contrast, modern Russian organized crime seems to revel in its very ahistoricity, lacking even a folklorish interest in its past. Eschewing memorialization of its culture (as opposed to its current members4), it places itself firmly in the today and turns its back on its history. Even the traditional criminal culture of the vorovskoi mir, rich in gory and brutal folklore and customs generated and transmitted within the Gulag prison camps, is being put aside,

One of the lessons of the historical evolution of Russian organized crime is that it emerged from a society in which the state has often been clumsy, threadbare, deeply corrupt – but also fundamentally ruthless, unconstrained by the niceties of legality and process, and willing to use often extravagant amounts of violence to protect its interests when it felt challenged. In the 1990s, it may have seemed for a while that the criminals were in charge. However, under Vladimir Putin, the state has re-emerged with a vengeance, and this has affected both crime and perceptions of crime.

There were, arguably, two ways Russian organized crime could have evolved, two potential precursors, one rural and one urban. In the 19th century, rural banditry looked as if it might have the greater potential. After all, this was a country almost impossible to police. By the end of the 19th century, tsarist Russia covered almost one-sixth of the world’s landmass. The population of 171 million (1913) overwhelmingly comprised peasants and was scattered across this huge country, often in small, isolated villages and communities. Simply for orders or warrants from the capital, St Petersburg, to reach Vladivostok on the Pacific coast could take weeks, even by horse relay. The railway, telegraph and telephone were to help, but the size of this country has been an obstacle to effective governance in many ways. Furthermore, the empire was a patchwork of different climates and cultures incorporated largely by conquest. Lenin dubbed it the ‘prison of nations’, but the Soviet state willingly accepted this imperial inheritance and even today’s smaller Russian Federation is a multi-ethnic conglomeration of more than a hundred national minorities.

The empire embraced some 200 nationalities, with Slavs accounting for two-thirds of the whole. Law enforcement had to deal with a wide range of local legal cultures, often espoused by peoples to whom the tsarist order was an alien and brutal occupier, as well as the practical challenges of apprehending criminals who could travel across jurisdictions. This might have been mitigated if adequate resources had been deployed to this purpose, but this was a state that policed on the cheap. After all, Russia’s state has historically been relatively poor, inefficient in its revenue collection and perched upon an often marginal economy. Spending on the police and the courts tended to take a distant second place to the military.

Successive tsars tried and failed to police their country. From the Razboinaya izba or Banditry Office established by Ivan the Terrible (reigned 1533–84) to the rural and urban forces established by Nicholas I (reigned 1825–55), all proved unequal to the task and the state’s grip on the countryside was always minimal, largely confined to suppressing uprisings, and dependent on the support (and hired guards) of the local gentry. The police – both urban and rural – tended to be an entirely reactive force, suffering from a lack of people and resources, poor training and morale, high turnover, endemic corruption (all in part symptoms of salaries worse than an unskilled laborer’s11) and minimal popular support. Furthermore, they were burdened with a whole range of additional duties which distracted them from policing, from the supervision of church worship to organizing military recruitment. The standard ‘summaries’ of police duties published in the 1850s ran to some 400 pages apiece!

Russian officials were often implicitly expected to practice what in medieval times had been called kormleniye (‘feeding’). In other words, they were not expected to live off their inadequate salaries, but to supplement them with side deals and judicious bribe taking. Legend has it that Tsar Nicholas I told his son, ‘I believe you and I are the only people in Russia who don’t steal.’ The first government inquiry into corruption was not conducted until 1856 and its view was that anything less than 500 rubles should not even be considered a bribe at all, merely a polite expression of thanks.  At this time, a rural police commissioner was paid 422 rubles a year.

Russia has faced widespread rebellions at times, such as the Pugachev Rising of 1773–4 or the 1905 Revolution, but more common were localized cases of violence, such as the depredations of outlaws or the visitations of the ‘red rooster’ (slang for arson, a crime used by peasants as ‘an effective weapon of social control and a language of protest within their communities, as well as against those they deemed outsiders’).

Order in the village was largely the preserve of samosud (‘self-judging’), a surprisingly nuanced form of lynch law, whereby the members of the commune applied their own moral code to offenders, regardless or even in defiance of the state’s laws.  This sometimes brutal form of social control was essentially geared towards protecting the interests of the community: those crimes which threatened the survival or social order of the village were dealt with most harshly. In particular, that meant horse theft, which threatened the very future of the village, by depriving it of a source of foals, power, transport and, in due course, meat and leather. Death was the usual penalty, and often in some notably painful and inventive way.

The state resented and feared the notion of peasants taking the law into their own hands, but there was very little it could do, given the strength of the peasants’ own moral code and the practical difficulties of mounting day-to-day policing of such a huge country. The police were thinly stretched across the countryside, did not seem able to promise real justice or restitution (tellingly, only around 10% of stolen horses were recovered) and rarely made great efforts to win themselves friends in the village.

The internal control mechanisms of the village – tradition, family, respect for the elders and ultimately samosud – ensured that the absence of effective state policing did not mean outright lawlessness. The most common rural crimes, beyond petty interpersonal squabbles of the kind usually resolved by the commune itself, were those such as poaching or theft of wood from the landlords’ or tsar’s forests, with which the peasants’ moral code saw nothing wrong. These offenses accounted for 70% of male property convictions in late tsarist Russia.  The landlord had more than enough wood for his personal needs. Serfs had to be ‘on guard against their masters, who were constantly acting towards them with open and shameless bad faith’, and so they in turn would ‘compensate themselves by artifice what they suffer through injustice’.

The real problem was in the countryside. There, 1,582 rural constables and 6,874 uryadniki were expected to patrol Russia’s immense rural hinterland and keep almost 90 million people in line. On average, each was thus responsible for some 55,000 peasants! As a result, the countryside was open to settled or wandering bandit gangs, sometimes rooted in a community and preying on outsiders, otherwise happy to rob from anyone and everyone. This was hardly new: banditry has long been a feature of Russian life.

The horse thief lived a violent, dangerous life, at risk from both the police and peasant lynch mobs. He would typically form a gang and take over a village, then establish complex networks for trading stolen horses into other regions where they would not be recognized. These horse-rustling gangs had to have the numbers, strength and cunning to evade not just the authorities but, far more dangerous, the peasants themselves. In some cases, they numbered several hundred members.

One investigator  wrote of the gang led by a Kubikovsky, which included almost 60 criminals and an underground cavern where they could hide as many as 50 horses.  The gangs – much like modern car thieves – needed to be able to conceal their original ownership (typically by selling them to a horse trader who could rebrand them and hide them amongst his regular stock) or else resell them far enough away from their original owner that it would be impossible for them to be traced. In some cases, the horse thieves operated as primitive protection racketeers, demanding tribute in return for leaving communities’ horses alone.

Faced with the very real threat of attacks and the economic costs to the community of having to mount constant guard on their precious horses, as well as the absence of effective state police, many regarded paying such ‘tax’ – or hiring a horse thief as a herder, which also gave him the opportunity to hide stolen horses amongst those of the village – as the lesser evil. Horse thieves were sometimes caught, whether by the peasants or the police, but overall they prospered, growing in numbers in the years leading up to the Great War as part of a wider tide of rural crime. While this was a specialized form of rural banditry, in their rough-and-ready way the horse thieves did represent a kind of organized crime. They operated with a clear sense of hierarchy and specialization, possessed distinct turfs of their own, maintained networks of informants, corrupted police officers, visited retribution on those who resisted or informed on them and traded stolen horses with other gangs and corrupt ‘legitimate’ dealers. The more successful ones operated for years, and while they may have developed links with local communities, whether through extortion or as neighbors and protectors, they undoubtedly were not of the community, and in many cases recruited broadly, drawing on runaways, ex-convicts, deserters and petty outlaws.

The First World War made dealing in horses difficult and dangerous, given the extent to which they were being bought and requisitioned for the army, and the chaos of revolution (1917), and the consequent civil war (1918–22) and famine (1920–2), further disrupted their commercial networks. Rural gangs were able to thrive for a while in this period of relative anarchy, a few becoming virtual bandit armies. In some cases individual bandits or even gangs ended up being coopted into the military or administrative structures of one side or another: just as Vanka Kain for a while worked for the state, so too did notorious criminals such as St Petersburg’s Lyonka Panteleyev, who for a while served in the Cheka, the Bolshevik political police, before likewise returning to a life of crime (and being shot in 1923 for his pains). However, as the Soviet regime began to assert its authority over the countryside, these bandits faced unprecedented pressure from the state.

In the whirlwind of Stalinist terror and collectivization rural criminality once again became a serious challenge.

Not 20 minutes’ walk from the Kremlin was the Khitrovka, perhaps the most notorious slum in all Russia. It was a magnet for newly arrived hopefuls and dispossessed peasants, at once desperate for a place to seek work and prey for urban predators of every kind. The urban gangster was a product of the slums of a rapidly urbanizing late-tsarist Russia, the so-called yamy, where life was cheap and miserable. It was in the drinking dens and dosshouses of the yamy that the subculture of the vorovskoi mir emerged, the ‘thieves’ world’. Its code, of separation from and contempt for mainstream society and its values – nation, church, family, charity – became one of the few unifying forces within this milieu, and would become a central part of the macho beliefs of the twentieth-century Russian vory. It was a realm of runaway serfs and army deserters, impoverished soldiers’ widows (who often became fences, buying and selling stolen goods) and opportunistic bandits.

Russian towns were reshaped by rapid industrialization and expansion as waves of migrant workers flocked in from the villages. It was characterized by massive turnover in populations, anomie, a loss of old moral norms and a sense of invisibility amongst all these new faces.

As Russia’s population grew, the proportion of landless peasants almost trebled. For many, moving to the city for a season or even to start a whole new life was simply an economic necessity.

Odessa was ‘perhaps the most police-ridden city in a police-ridden Russia’ and certainly it proved a dangerous environment for revolutionaries – and yet it also became a byword for crime of every kind. The explanation for this seeming paradox is that the police, in Odessa and elsewhere, concentrated on political crimes and securing the well-to-do parts of the cities. In the poor neighborhoods, they chose largely to turn a blind eye to many offences, unless the crimes were especially serious or impinged on the interests of the state or wealthier classes. Mass brawls between rival gangs or workers’ groups were quite a frequent and almost ritual occurrence, for example, and they were often allowed to play themselves out to their usual bruised and bloody conclusion: only when they were staged in the center of town were they likely to be broken up.

There came a time of creeping martial law, as the tsarist state increasingly sought to side-step its own legal system by relying on emergency powers, through the declarations of ‘extraordinary guard’. These gave governors and gradonachalniki sweeping powers but they were largely used in the suppression of protest, not in extending their role or redefining the notion of the maintenance of public order.

Moscow had one officer per 276 citizens, comparing well with Berlin (325:1) and Paris (336:1).  More than half of its police posts unmanned. The figures also include ‘dead souls’ introduced by fraudulent commanders (so that they could pocket those ringers’ pay) as well as policemen who never pounded the beat but were actually permanently appropriated by senior officers to act as their messengers, cooks and batmen. Weissman suggests that in the towns and cities beyond Moscow and St Petersburg, the ratio was often 700:1 or even worse, a situation exacerbated by rapid urbanization.

Not only were there not enough police, but the Russians failed to make the best use of them, keeping them badly trained and inefficiently deployed. Street cops rarely patrolled like their European or North American counterparts. They simply manned guard posts, each generally within earshot of the next, and waited for trouble to be reported to them or nearby. This passive approach made police more like security guards  than active public protectors.

An artel was a voluntary group pooling its labor and resources to a common end. Sometimes it was made up of peasants from the same village who migrated together to seek work in the cities, sometimes a work crew paid collectively for their overall production. In this way, the artel was a way of recreating the mutual support of the peasant commune, but in smaller and more mobile form. Typically, an artel would have an elected leader, a starosta (‘elder’ – although this was an honorific rather than chronological term), who negotiated with employers, handled common arrangements (such as renting accommodation) and distributed any profits. Artely typically had their own customs, rules and hierarchies, often reflecting those of their home villages.

Within the yamy, a new generation would be born into a life of crime. The children of the cohorts of prostitutes would, for example, be rented out when new-born babies as usefully heartstring-tugging accessories to the city’s beggars, before eventually graduating into begging themselves. At least they had a parent and perhaps even a home: many of the uncared-for children lived on the streets, sleeping in rubbish bins or fighting over a discarded barrel for shelter. The children would play ‘thief’, a common and popular game, before in due course moving into more active participation in the underworld, from standing as a lookout to becoming one of the wily and agile children used to wriggle through open windows to carry out burglaries.  There was a bewildering array of such specialisms, from the pickpockets to the common burglars and those who snatched travelers’ bags from the tops of carriages. With specialization also came hierarchy, as underworld professions became increasingly differentiated.

The taverns of Odessa’s port district acted as virtual labor exchanges, at which contractors and artel bosses could recruit whoever they needed for that day or week, so too did the drinking dens of the yamy become places where loot and information were exchanged, muscle hired and deals struck. Meanwhile, tavern keepers cultivated profitable sidelines in their own right, as fences and bankers to their shadowy clientele.

A rigidly hierarchical tsarist society, in which officials from clerks to station masters had their uniforms and place, was reflected in an underworld which not only had its own castes and ranks but also learned to turn the characteristics of the ‘upperworld’ against itself. The fraudsters were the acknowledged aristocrats of the vorovskoi mir, because they could pass as the well-to-do or even aristocrats, and then rob their betters blind. They were typically smart, sometimes very well educated – just as modern Russian organized crime includes people with PhDs – and demonstrated that the corrupt, oligarchic nature of tsarist Russia meant that, if you could persuade people that you had power, you could get away with anything. T

he parallels with modern Russia are striking, especially as these conmen also acted as patrons, bankers and brokers for the thuggish gangsters, just as many contemporary Russian businessmen can, when they need to, whistle up a corrupt cop or judge or a handful of leg breakers in leather jackets.

Stalin was not a product of the university or the salon. He rubbed shoulders with outlaws and gangsters, and as a revolutionary he was a key figure in the campaign of ‘expropriations’ – violent bank robberies – to raise funds for the Bolshevik Party. More than just a bloody page in Russia’s thoroughly gory revolutionary history, this underlines a key phenomenon: the extent to which the Bolsheviks – and Stalin in particular – were willing to use criminals as allies and agents. In the process, they would not only bargain away the soul of the revolution for immediate gain, they would also set the scene for the transformation of the country’s underworld, a process that would even help shape the Russia that emerged from seventy years of Soviet rule in 1991.

If Lenin had shot more criminals and hired fewer, we might have seen a very different Soviet Union.

When the Provisional Government committed itself to continuing to fight, the Bolsheviks’ slogan of ‘Peace, Bread, Land’ offered enough to the soldiers, workers and peasants so that at the very least they saw little reason to stand in their way. Lenin’s Red Guard seized the main cities and declared a new government – and then the real problems began. Although able to negotiate, at terrible cost, an end to Russia’s involvement in the Great War, the new government would soon find itself embroiled in a vicious and confusing civil war. Against the Reds (and sometimes against each other) fought a motley array of monarchists, constitutional democrats, nationalists, anarchists, foreign forces, warlords and rival revolutionaries. The Russian Civil War of 1918–22 was the formative moment for the Bolsheviks and in many ways their abiding tragedy. Their reformist impulses and idealism were sacrificed in the name of survival, and, while the Reds won the war, they lost their soul. What was left was a brutal, disciplined and militarized regime, in which the cynical and the ruthless would rise fast and far.

No wonder that all manner of bandits and thugs joined the Bolshevik cause, and took to professing Marxism in the name of career opportunity. Even many Bolsheviks were alarmed to see the Cheka, their first political police force, becoming, in the words of Alexander Olminsky, a haven for ‘criminals, sadists, and degenerate elements from the lumpen proletariat’.  In 1918, robberies and murders were 10 to 15 times the prewar level.

Lenin himself was not immune to the lawlessness of the period. He, his sister Mariya and his sole bodyguard, Ivan Chabanov, were being driven in his official Rolls-Royce when they were flagged down by men in uniform.  These men turned out to be the notorious gangster Yakov Kuznetsov (known as ‘Yakov Purses’) and his associates, who needed a suitable car for a robbery. When asked ‘What’s the matter? I am Lenin’, the gangster replied, ‘So what if you’re Levin? I’m Purses, and I’m the boss of this city at night.’ So Kuznetsov simply appropriated the car, various documents and Chabanov’s gun. Shortly thereafter, looking through the papers, he realized he had passed up the chance to bag a valuable prize, and doubled back with the thought of taking Lenin as a hostage. By then, though, Chabanov had spirited him away. What followed was a massive manhunt, with Kuznetsov repeatedly slipping through the authorities’ fingers, before finally falling to a hail of bullets in July. Here is his claim to fame, as the man who could have changed the course of Soviet history, had he only known who Lenin was.

The bitter violence, chaos and hardships of the civil war were piled on the existing woes generated by the Great War. Millions were displaced by both wars, and for years to come the country roiled with individual and group migration. This created whole new opportunities for criminals: to lose themselves in the human tides, and to prey on people adrift, whom no one knew or would miss.

One particularly poignant challenge was what to do with the millions of homeless and abandoned children who often formed gangs simply to survive. There were already some 2.5 million of them by the start of 1917, but the perfect storm of revolution, epidemic, famine and war that then blew through Russia brought the figure to an extraordinary 7 million or more.  This continued through the 1920s, and bring with it the associated challenges of begging, theft and even violence. Tales abounded of gangs of teenagers or even younger children not only engaging in petty theft but mobbing and sometimes killing victims in gangs 10, 20, 30 strong. Too often the authorities had to turn to tough measures to round them up. Many of had become habitual drug users even before they were in their teens, and begun to emulate the adults of the vorovskoi mir by their use of tattoos and nicknames.

The rise of private enterprise also generated its own criminal opportunities, from fraud and tax evasion through to bandit predation on the new class of entrepreneurs.

Meanwhile, they were having to cope with the consequences of the opening up of tsarist prisons and the loss or destruction of many records from the time. Violent gangsters walked free, only to reprise their old repertoires. The gang of Vasily Kotov and Grigory Morozov, for example, terrorized Kursk province in 1920–2. They swooped on isolated estates and farms, murdered everyone inside – Morozov himself favored an axe for this – and looted whatever they could find. In 1922, they came to Moscow and in a three-week orgy of violence killed 32 people before fleeing the city.

Once the immediate needs of the civil war began to recede, the Bolshevik state began again to take regular crime more seriously. Under the infamous Article 49 of the Criminal Code, introduced in 1922, people began to be rounded up on the basis of often quite petty crimes, such as shoplifting, or even their connections with what was called a ‘criminal milieu’, and banished from the six main cities

Famine and chaos in the countryside, as a result of Stalin’s collectivization campaign (effectively seizing control of farmland for the state), led to a resurgence of sending children as young as eight to the labor camps.

Stalin’s whirlwind of terror, industrialization and incarceration would revolutionize the vorovskoi mir. At the Gulag system of labor camps, millions of zeki convict laborers felled trees, dug canals and mined coal in the name of modernization. How many? We do not really know, but Anne Applebaum suggests a figure of 28.7 million through the Stalin era as a ‘low estimate’.  There was nothing secret about the arrests and the Gulag system, with convicts working even in the major cities (Moscow’s sublime metro system was built on the backs of this hellish modern slavery). The principle of arresting people in the early hours was not only a matter of practicality, catching them when they were likely to be home and at their most vulnerable. It was also part of this whole theater of terror: the arrival of a vehicle outside at a time when the streets were virtually empty except for the ‘black raven’ vans of the political police, boots echoing in the stairwell, a hammering on a door, the cries of children, protestations, the stern commands of the authorities. One person may be arrested, but a whole apartment block would be suffused with terror and the shameful relief that this time it was someone else.

Many zeki were ‘58ers’, political prisoners swept up by the infamous Article 58 of the Criminal Code on ‘counter-revolutionary acts’, which could be anything from telling a joke about Stalin to being associated with someone who had just fallen out of favor. Others were either petty criminals, or so-called bytoviki, ‘everyday-lifers’, whose crimes were just those everyone ended up committing, from getting to work late to filching a little food in the middle of a famine.

But then there were also the true criminals, the vory, and the existing culture of the vorovskoi mir was magnified and communicated as they were thrown together in the camps, in etap (prisoner transport convoy) trucks and train carriages, and in the transit stations along their routes. Prisoners were, after all, routinely moved around, whether to disperse dangerous concentrations, relieve overcrowding or meet new economic needs. Through this constant mingling of criminals from across the Soviet Union, the vorovskoi mir became ever more homogeneous and interconnected, a veritable ‘gangster archipelago’. In the process, the camp system strengthened and transmitted this distinctive subculture, at once enforcing and teaching underworld orthodoxy.

 

In its own vicious way, the Stalin regime was bringing about rapid urbanization and industrialization and, as during late tsarism, this generated increased specialization and stratification within the underworld, just as for the rest of society.  A key part of the job of a vor v zakone was to be both an exemplar of the demanding code of the thieves and responsible for policing it by fierce and exacting means. If a wannabe vor acquired a tattoo to which he was not entitled, he might be killed, or simply have the offending piece of skin cut from his body. Often, though, the discipline was internal. A thief in the Kolyma camp, for example, lost three fingers on his left hand because he had failed to make good on a bet (an almost sacred obligation within the vorovskoi mir).

 

The hard core of vory, a minority even amongst the criminals, contented themselves largely with preying on the petty and political prisoners. They terrorized and abused them, stealing their food and clothing, forcing them from the warmer bunks in the barracks, beating, even raping, with virtual impunity. Unsurprisingly, they also forced the other prisoners to do their work, as it was against the code of the vorovskoi mir to lift a finger for the state and feign illness, mutilate himself or as a last resort defy the clubs and guns of the guards before he bent before them.

 

These thieves who preyed on the ordinary convicts were soon preyed on by others, thanks to the culture spawned by Stalin.  If there was one crucial, and ultimately fatal, weakness in the code of the vorovskoi mir, it was the absolute ban on any form of cooperation with the state. This helped define the thieves and build their coherent subculture, but in an age of totalitarian dreams and massive state power, it was to prove increasingly untenable.

 

The answer was to co-opt the worst underworld elements as agents and trustees to keep the 58ers and the 49ers, the political prisoners and petty criminals respectively, controlled and working. There were, of course, still regular prison guards, but the lion’s share of managing the Gulag population was in effect subcontracted to inmates. Trusties were much more likely to be put into administrative roles involving contact with the outside world, or allowed to move around ‘de-convoyed’ beyond camp walls. To some, this was an occasional chance to forage for food, to loaf or even to snatch a quick drink. For others, though, it was a chance to build criminal networks between worlds.

 

When Germany invaded the USSR in 1941, many within the Gulags ended up in the Red Army, In the first three years of the war, almost a million Gulag inmates were transferred into the Red Army. The vory and regular criminals who had served in the army and were now considered to have broken their code were joined by maybe half a million former soldiers and partisans whose ‘crime’ had been to be captured by the enemy when Stalin expected – demanded – that they fight to the death. For them, ‘liberation’ meant an inglorious transfer from a foreign prison camp to a Soviet one. Over a third of a million Red Army soldiers ended up in the NKVD’s ‘verification and filtration camps’.  As the Kremlin closed its fist on central Europe, there were waves of Balts, Poles and others who ended up in the Gulag, whether because they had fought against the Soviets or simply because they were patriots whose presence would be inconvenient as new puppet regimes were installed.

 

In terms of the big picture, the collaborators won, for a variety of reasons. They often had numbers on their side, and the ex-soldiers brought with them military experience: the blatnye might be tough individually, but so were their enemies, and many of them were used to fighting as units. Perhaps most importantly, the suki had the support of the regime. The authorities found a variety of ways to tilt the balance, whether by allowing them to dominate camp careers such as cook and barber – which meant knives and razors – or by giving them access to work tools such as axes and shovels. They could also move groups of prisoners like armies in the field, concentrating them in individual camps until they had wiped out the blatnye there, and then moving them on to the next.  Nonetheless, win they did, and reshaped the vorovskoi mir in their own image. They retained most of the code, and the culture of brazen and merciless dog-eat-dog predation, but they rewrote the prohibition on collaboration with the state. It now became permissible, so long as it was in the criminal’s interest.

 

The way would be open for a new generation of vory to collaborate with dishonest Party functionaries when they felt it was in their interests. This was Stalin’s toxic legacy to the Soviet Union.

 

The evidence suggests that the distinctive culture of the vorovskoi mir did not die out in the 1960s, but certainly became far less powerful and ubiquitous, only to be recreated as the vory reinvented themselves from the 1970s onwards. As such, their folkways would be a pallid and half-remembered reflection of the powerful, vital and brutal culture of the vory’s heyday.

 

For some of Stalin’s Gulags, those deep in the northern wastes or thick Siberian pine forests, the final layer of security was not the barbed-wire fences, not guards’ guns, not the specially bred dogs, not even the local indigenous people paid handsome bounties for runaway prisoners. Instead, it was the very remoteness of the locations, the prospect of days and days on the run, often in the most trying conditions, without finding human habitation, anywhere to buy, beg or steal food. Hence in some cases blatnye desperate to escape would befriend a fellow prisoner outside their culture and invite him to flee along with them. Unbeknown to him, the companion’s actual role was to be a walking larder, eventually to be killed and eaten when needs must, in a grotesque piece of inhuman pragmatism that truly put the vor into ‘carnivore’.

 

Even in the early 20th century, the Russian language spoken by commoners was still fragmented, branched into countless local dialects. Yet both the spoken and visual languages of the vorovskoi mir were largely universal, promulgated not just in the yamy and the drinking dens but perhaps most importantly in the prison system. Thieves’ tattoos drew often upon traditional visual themes, not least religious iconography. However, given that classic motifs included naked and voluptuous Virgin Marys and angels enjoying oral sex, the intent was clearly deliberately sacrilegious. Later, new forms of blasphemy became popular: Nazi swastikas or obscene caricatures of Marx, Lenin or Stalin had a similar consciously iconoclastic intent.

 

The most extreme tattoos, such as barbed wire across the forehead or ‘don’t wake’ on the eyelids, could hardly be hidden – and that was intentional. The extensive tattooing, often done in the Gulag with makeshift needles sanitized simply by being passed through a flame and using ink mixed from soot and urine, was done to symbolize not just a permanent commitment to the vorovskoi mir, but also manliness. It was painful and carried the risk of septicaemia. The aforementioned ‘don’t wake’ tattoo involved sliding a spoon under the eyelid before starting the inking. You needed to demonstrate your willingness to endure pain and risk your life, as well as your separation from the world to be a true vor.

 

Tattoos on the shoulders, for example, expressed a commitment never to wear epaulettes – symbols of military rank and also of the voyenshchina – while stars on the knees symbolised a refusal to kneel before the authorities.  Gulag tattooists were a privileged group, prized not just for their skill and their ability to scrounge and assemble the necessary ink and implements, but also their almost sacral role as the chroniclers on the flesh of thieves’ identities, accomplishments and ambitions. Inmates with this talent might find themselves protected even if they were muzhiki or politicals. This was, for example, the saving grace for Thomas Sgovio, an American Communist who moved to the USSR, buoyed by a sense of mission, and who was then arrested in 1938 when he tried to reclaim his US passport on seeing just how this workers’ paradise was turning out. Sent to the Kolyma labor complex, he was fortunate enough to be able to demonstrate his skill as a tattooist, which helped win him food and protection from the criminals around him.

 

 

Rituals, games and tattoos were not the only identifiers of this subculture. Senior vory often affected particular styles of dress. In the Gulags, demonstrating that you could still find and retain particular items of clothing had a particular significance, as it attested to your authority, protection, connections or outright toughness.

 

Their culture was an often horrifically misogynistic culture, exalting a caricature of manliness in which women were confined to the roles of idealized mother, wanton prostitute, helpless victim, gangster’s moll or excluded outsider. From the portrayals of women in their tattoos – typically naked and sexualized – to the sentimental stanzas of their songs, the thieves might affect to revere or despise women, but never to respect them.

 

Although efforts were made to keep male and female prisoners apart, camp memoirs are depressingly packed with accounts of not just one-off rapes but women forced, through violence, intimidation or the prospect of slightly better – more survivable – conditions, into sexual relationships with blatnye, officials and those whose occupations gave them even a slight degree of privilege and impunity.

has ever sent so much as a kopek to his mother or made any attempt to help her on his own.’

 

It is a perverse irony that the true midwives of organized crime in today’s Russia are to be found in an unlikely and disparate trinity of Soviet general secretaries: Stalin the tyrant, Brezhnev the manager and Gorbachev the reformer. Stalin created the collaborator-criminal willing to work with self-interested elements of the elite. Brezhnev presided over a Soviet Union characterized by corruption and the black market, turning the new vory increasingly towards the informal economy. And Gorbachev shattered the state, but also unleashed new market forces that the vory would prove best placed to exploit.

 

The black market in Moscow had grown exponentially, and the tsekhoviki, the ‘shopmen’, who ran it were doing well for themselves. Gangs run by Karkov in the late 1960s and early 70s were the terror of Moscow’s black market magnates and began to burgle the tsekhoviki’s apartments, confident that their victims could not go to the police lest they had to explain how they had accumulated the cash and luxuries that were taken. Then, they graduated to extortion, demanding payment in return for a peaceful life and kidnapping those who refused or who had hidden away their ill-gotten gains.

 

Having taken to wearing police uniforms to access people’s homes without question, Karkov’s men also began using the same tactic to seize their victims. The tsekhoviki would then be driven out of town, typically into the woods or to abandoned houses, and tortured with sadistic ferocity until they broke: burned with hot irons; hung from trees and only cut down when nearly asphyxiated; even nailed into a coffin, which the burly, drug-addicted thug bearing the imaginative nickname ‘The Executioner’ would then begin to saw in two, as if in a magic trick.

 

Meanwhile, with the rise to power of General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev in 1964, the corruption of the Communist Party and the pervasiveness of the underground economy only deepened. Karkov was the first seriously to appreciate the extent to which the rise of the black market, facilitated by the corruption of the Party, was creating a new class of underground entrepreneurs who were cash rich but protection poor, such that they were ripe for exploitation.  Karkov’s true legacy was not just a new generation of vory but also a whole new criminal world in which they would operate. This alliance would be crucial in the 1980s, when Mikhail Gorbachev’s quixotic reform program would in practice doom the state and empower the gangsters.

 

On 5 March 1953, Stalin succumbed to a stroke, cardiac hemorrhage and paranoia (the last because his suspicion of potential assassins meant he forbade unauthorized entry into his rooms and so lay dying for hours before anyone realized). The Soviet Union he bequeathed to his successor was a perverse collection of paradoxes. It was an unquestioned superpower, a nuclear one at that, with an empire in eastern Europe. It had industrialized and electrified, brought literacy to the masses, made the steppe sprout grain and the tundra give forth gold and timber. Yet this had been on the basis of murderous mass terror, and it left the countryside scarred with Gulags, prisons and mass graves, and the Soviet psyche shadowed with habits of collaboration, opportunism and automatic defensiveness.

 

If everyone owned everything, then surely no one owned anything, and how could it be theft if no one owned it? Everyone stole what they could, and even if they could not steal goods, they stole time, disappearing from work to queue up for food, or moonlighting off the books.

 

Much of the dramatic increase in lawlessness across the Soviet Union – 552,281 recorded crimes in 1953, 745,812 by 1957 – was accounted for by the inevitable chaos when 5 million convicts were suddenly dumped into the country, with minimal assistance.

 

Outside the labor camp system, though, the biggest gang in town was undoubtedly the Communist Party and the opportunists who had risen under Stalin. David Remnick calls it ‘the most gigantic mafia the world has ever known’, a view shared in the underworld. As the professional pickpocket ‘Zhora the Engineer’ put it, ‘there certainly is a Soviet mafia. And it’s organized a hell of a lot better than the American mafia. But it has another name. It’s called the Communist Party. We wouldn’t dream of trying to compete with it.’

 

The state was authoritarian and possessed – in the form of the militsiya (police) and the political police (from 1954 known as the Committee of State Security, KGB) – the undoubted capacity to crack down on the gangsters if ever they became a challenge or an embarrassment.  Organized crime was atomized back to relatively small-scale ventures and, despite continued sporadic cases of armed robbery and the like, throughout the 1960s and 1970s, the vory were very much kept in their place, and the general consensus is that the gangs which had first emerged in the 1950s were largely dismantled.

 

Without a critical mass of members, spread as they were now across the country, without the Gulags as forcing houses for a new generation, and without the ability to operate openly, the vorovskoi mir as a distinctive subculture began to die. Of course, there was still much crime, a great deal of it organized. But the vory’s strong sense of being separate from the rest of the population, of their status as the only true lyudi (‘people’), began to fade, along with the transmission of the code and folklore of the vorovskoi mir.

 

For perhaps 20 years, the thieves’ world would fade, gaining a mythological status at the expense of authenticity and power. It had adapted to Stalinism, though, so it would be revived, reinvented and reinterpreted again in the later Brezhnev and Gorbachev years, from the 1970s. It would re-emerge in an underworld dominated by the opportunities to be found in the informal economy and corruption, but also one with far fewer opportunities to use violence openly without incurring the wrath of the state.

 

The so-called ‘Kazan phenomenon’ – because it was first properly recognized in that city – followed a classic pattern, as adolescents clustered around territorial divisions, particular affiliations (such as following the same football team) or even large factories, to hang out and brawl. Indeed, this had been a staple of village life until the 1960s, and was simply transposed into the cities.  Sometimes, street gangs evolved into organized crime groups, monetising muscle by turning it into territorial control, or at least the capacity to extort rents from the local informal economy.

 

Even in its most primordial forms, organized crime endured, and it had a chance for a revival in the 1970s – to a large extent, ironically, thanks to the government that had tamed it. For all that it had the laws, the men and the guns, the state was also riddled with corruption and increasingly dependent on the black market to satisfy the needs of ordinary Soviets and elites alike. A second shadowy trinity emerged, of corrupt officials, gangsters and black marketeers. The Party was facing a prolonged period of stagnation and decay. Under General Secretary Brezhnev (1964–82), the scale of corruption within both the Party and society expanded dramatically. As the planned economy began to grind to a painful halt, the underground economy grew to compensate.  This was a natural by-product of the failures of the system: people turned to bribery, the black market and the economy of favors to fill in the gaps.

 

The institutionalized corruption of the Soviet elite not only increasingly made the state dysfunctional and ungovernable – and, as Gorbachev was to discover, unreformable – but it also contributed to the corruption of society as a whole.

 

James Heinzen has suggested that the Second World War was ‘a largely unrecognized turning point in fueling the kind of corruption that proved to be a hallmark of later periods of Soviet history’. With their careers and bonuses dependent on the unrealistic demands of the Five-Year Plan, managers and officials used illegal methods to meet their quotas (or at least to appear to). Most enterprises had their ‘fixer’, whose job it was to use his connections to get the labor, raw materials, spare parts, transport or whatever else was needed to reach the targets.  Within the workplace – from labor camp to government office – those with power also demanded tribute from those beneath them, for promotions, perks or just a quiet life.  Ordinary Soviet citizens paid bribes to get what they were entitled to but which was in short supply, and also to get other goods, services and opportunities to which they were not.

 

While on a micro-scale they empowered the individual, overall they simply passed wealth upwards, to the gatekeepers who could control access to defitsitny goods (ones in short supply), grant a job or a promotion, or approve a medical treatment. The so-called ‘socialist’ system actually became a pyramid of predation, as those at the bottom paid those at the top, often for what was no more than their legal due.  The dependence on clientelism, the lack of independent checks and balances, and the pervasive culture of illegality allowed rings of officials, especially in the regions, to organise schemes which would plunder the greatest piggy bank of all: the state itself.

 

Perhaps the crowning glory was the Uzbek cotton scandal, wherein local Party boss Sharaf Rashidov and a slate of Party and government officials in the central Asian republic of Uzbekistan, including the local KGB, were involved in a decade-long scam that embezzled some three billion rubles in payments for cotton that was never harvested, from fields and farms which did not exist. Claiming uncharacteristic efficiency and discipline, reports flowed back to Moscow of new irrigation networks dug, new fields planted and productivity records shattered. No wonder cotton was known as ‘white gold’, as thanks to the connivance of co-conspirators in Moscow – including Brezhnev’s son-in-law and deputy interior minister, the grossly overpromoted Yury Churbanov – they were able to conceal the minor detail that none of this alleged harvest actually existed.

 

In an era when even the most powerful and highly praised figures within the system were deeply and enthusiastically involved in corruption to maintain their privileged existences, is it any surprise that ordinary citizens, experiencing a relative decline in their standards of living, likewise turned to illegal means?

 

Black-markets could not have developed as far as they did without close ties with corrupt Party officials who needed these connections not just for their own survival, but often to gain access to raw materials, facilities and labor.  The greater part of the underground economy was domestic goods, whether diverted from official production or made in underground factories.

 

Many of those who built up business empires, which often prospered for years, did so working inside state structures and, frankly, making up for the failures of the planned economy. Mmost dangerously for the regime, they demonstrated the failings of the planned economy compared with the dynamism of the market, and encouraged widening networks of corruption and compromise. Such networks could, and did, reach to the very pinnacles of the system, but they often lacked the means to convert that into the money and consumer goods they craved. With their protection, the magnates of the underground economy could smuggle in foreign luxuries, deal in high-demand goods and set up workshops and factories to produce everything from counterfeit jeans to cigarettes. In the process, they became rich – but could not risk spending their ill-gotten gains unless they retained that protection. So the gangsters then became their middlemen. Through the 1960s and 1970s, they were in many ways the weakest of the three: they needed the black-market businessmen’s money and the Party bosses’ protection. But they also became indispensable, and knew how to parlay that into greater leverage and freedom.

 

The more they dealt with entrepreneurs, the more they had to come to understand the market and respond to new opportunities; the more they dealt with the state, the more they had to understand politics and demonstrate the capacity to resolve disputes and maintain discipline. From being the outcasts of the Gulags, the vory were moving closer to the heart of the Soviet system. And Gorbachev, alas, would unwittingly let them all the way in. His perestroika (restructuring) reforms would position them well to benefit from the very collapse of the USSR that his campaign would accelerate.

 

Three key aspects of the Gorbachev era were crucial in revolutionizing organized crime:

  1. His well-intentioned but ill-conceived anti-alcohol campaign did for Soviet gangsters something a little like what prohibition did for their North American counterparts.
  2. A limited liberalization of the economy and the creation of a new form of private business (the so-called cooperatives) provided the criminals with new victims for extortion and opportunities to launder all the cash they were making through alcohol sales.
  3. The collapse in the authority of the state meant that just at the time when they were acquiring unprecedented financial and coercive resources – money and muscle – the criminals also faced no serious controls. They no longer had to rely on the payments of the black-market barons as they had their own sources of income; the corrupt Party bosses now needed their protection rather than the other way round. In short, the pyramid upended itself, leaving the gangsters on top for a while.

 

The anti-alcohol campaign was a naïve and mishandled attempt to address a serious issue: the levels of drunkenness that were reducing labor productivity and burdening the health system. Soviet citizens were the world’s heaviest drinkers, on average consuming the equivalent of 11.2 liters (3 gallons) of pure alcohol a year, and by 1980 the typical family spent up to a half of its household budget on drink.

 

There were some successes, to be sure. Time lost through alcohol-related disabilities fell 30% between 1984 and 1987, and drink-driving deaths fell by 20%. However, for too many Soviet citizens, alcohol had become an increasingly important, though destructive, escape from the drabness and hopelessness of everyday life. Already accustomed to using the black market to make up for the shortfalls of the legal economy, they turned nalevo for drink too.

 

Organized crime networks, which had for years become used to the ways of the informal economy, exploited the gap, gladly supplying imported, homebrewed, black market and stolen drink of every kind.

So great was the upsurge in illegal production of alcohol that it led to a nationwide shortage of sugar, which was needed for the process.  The vory played a key role in using their contacts to divert alcohol stocks from those factories which still ran to sell for inflated black-market prices, or even in some cases selling on drink that had been earmarked for destruction. Sometimes this was stolen by the gangsters themselves, or more often corrupt officials would write it off, but as they needed help getting it onto the black market, they had to turn to the vory.

 

For most people, the first time they ever knowingly encountered the vory was not as predators but as suppliers. The gangsters found themselves making more money than ever, in the unexpected role of friend and ally.  Because of course that is what they were. The criminals who first sold people alcohol were connected to wider black-market networks that allowed them also to supply other goods, from clothes and cigarettes to household goods and medicines, at a time of increasing scarcity and rationing. Furthermore, their connections to corrupt officials meant that they could also broker deals. It was not, after all, as though ordinary Soviet citizens had not had connections with black marketeers before, or that they had not used corruption to ease their lives. Instead, the obstacles had more to do with networks and trust. Did a particular person know whom to bribe for a particular service, did they have access, did they know the ‘right’ rate, could they trust the recipient?

 

The gangsters emerged as ad hoc brokers able to make the necessary connections and also, implicitly and sometimes explicitly, guaranteeing the transaction. They had a reputational stake in the deal going smoothly, not least as future business would depend on this.

 

People encouraged gangsters to diversify, after buying booze might ask about cigarettes or getting their daughter into a clinic. It became both enriching and a source of unexpected legitimation and revelation as they began to appreciate the new opportunities Gorbachev was unwittingly opening up to them. In an effort to tap the energies of the market, Gorbachev opened up the economy to cooperatives, small-scale private enterprises such as restaurants and services. A new generation of kooperativniki emerged,

in a way a legal counterpart to the black market’s tsekhoviki.

 

This new generation of would-be entrepreneurs represented a challenge to both an ossified orthodoxy and also the sweetheart deals on which the elite had come to rely. Whatever the Kremlin may have wanted for them, the kooperativniki faced hostility from the public, obstruction from local authorities and a willful refusal from the police to offer proper protection.  Looking for places to launder and reinvest their new-found wealth, and with the capacity to easily intimidate these vulnerable entrepreneurs, the gangsters were able to move into this sector on a massive scale. Protection rackets were rife. Many businesses were taken over or driven into the ground. By late 1989, the criminals controlled or were being paid off by an estimated 75% of cooperatives.

 

Criminals who until recently had depended largely on the black market and on black marketeers for their revenue found themselves increasingly financially solvent. Even these gangster-businessmen needed muscle, though, and amongst all the expressions of the grass-roots entrepreneurialism of the Gorbachev era, few were as pernicious as the rise of the professionals of coercion. Russian sociologist Vadim Volkov called them the ‘violent entrepreneurs’, who monetized their muscle, turning the will and capacity to use or threaten force into a resource. Groups with a particular and credible capacity to deploy violence became the basis for organized crime gangs. Three particular examples were sportsmen, unofficial bodybuilders and afgantsy, veterans of the Soviet Union’s ten-year (1979–88) war in Afghanistan.

 

At first, the police and authorities seemed to turn a blind eye to much of their violence. They saw in them a potential weapon against anti-government agitators, but by 1987–8, the police were beginning to crack down on them, but that only accelerated a trend that had already begun: the recruitment of these young toughs into organized crime gangs.

 

As for the afgantsy, they were typically marked by their experiences not only in war, but also in peace. Veterans of a conflict Moscow did not want to acknowledge (in the early years, the state flatly denied that there were Soviet soldiers in Afghanistan and veterans were ordered to keep quiet about it), they were often scapegoated by society and neglected by the state. Promises of proper medical attention, of jobs, of decent housing, all tended to be broken. This was less because of any real prejudice against them than because they were a politically marginalized group competing for resources in a time of extreme scarcity. Nonetheless, for many this led to a degree of ‘shadow socialization’ in which they actively turned against mainstream society and its values.

 

Cooperatives run by Afghan War veterans were, needless to say, rather less amenable to gangster shakedowns. The police also sought to recruit veterans, especially for their new OMON riot police units and similar special forces.

 

In many ways the most dramatic development was the collapse of the Communist Party thanks to Gorbachev’s liberal reforms. Glasnost, a new openness about contemporary affairs and past horrors, knocked away much of the legitimacy of the Party, and the economic hardships produced by botched economic reforms ate away at the rest. Facing growing resistance from an alarmed and self-interested elite, Gorbachev was simply radicalized, and turned to a limited democratization campaign to give himself a power base independent of the Party, shattering its fragile unity. This liberalization also encouraged local nationalist movements which, in turn, threatened the very existence of the Soviet state.

 

Officials who once had held the literal power of life and death over the vory were generally too busy to be bothered with them. Sometimes they found themselves needing their services, whether getting out the vote or, more often, helping them amass the money they would need when their positions were no longer guaranteed. Even the central Communist Party, worried that it was seeing the writing on the wall, began salting away funds. In 1990, a secret Central Committee decree ordered the KGB to start building a network of businesses and accounts covertly connected to the Party for the day when it might not be able to count on state funds. An unknown amount of money – billions of dollars – was spirited from the coffers of a state which could scarcely afford it and into hundreds of these accounts.

 

Organized crime was increasingly powerful, wealthy and self-confident. From around 1988, for instance, the division in Moscow between the Slavic gangs and those of the ‘Chechen brotherhood’ and their allies from elsewhere in the north Caucasus was visible.

Just as the 1990s saw Russia go through financial and political crises as it tried to define itself and its place in the world, its underworld spent most of the decade expanding rapidly into every corner of the economy and society but also getting involved in running turf wars as gangs rose, fell, united, divided and competed. This was a decade of drive-by shootings, car bombs and the virtual theft of whole industries, in which the forces of order seemed powerless. In 1994, President Yeltsin declared that Russia was the ‘biggest mafia state in the world’. He almost sounded proud of it; certainly he did not do much to stop it, and cronies of his were deeply involved in this arrant criminalization of the country. From this anarchy, though, a new order would emerge, as major underworld combines formed, pecking orders emerged and territorial boundaries became established.

 

Yeltsin’s presidency offered organized crime the perfect incubator. This was a time of extraordinary change, including a massive widening of the gap between haves and have-nots. Moscow began to be decked in gaudy neon, and Mercedes-Benz was selling more armored limousines in Russia than the rest of the world put together. But outside the metro stations you would see lines of desperate pensioners selling anything they had – a chair, a half-used tube of toothpaste, a wedding ring – just to try and make ends meet. The police, underpaid and outgunned, often lacked fuel for their cars and bullets for their weapons.

 

The headlong rush to privatize state assets transferred many into criminal hands at bargain basement prices. Likewise, limited democratization created corrupt local fiefdoms which resembled nothing so much as the snake-pit municipalities of interwar America, familiar from Dashiell Hammett’s noir thrillers – but with Kalashnikovs and the internet. Perhaps most insidious and corrosive was the widespread sense of insecurity and uncertainty; the new laws were contradictory, the old certainties were gone. If you needed a contract enforcing or a debt collecting, to whom could you turn when the courts were corrupt and backlogged? If you needed protection and security, who could provide it when the police were corrupt and inefficient? The answer, needless to say, was organized crime, which emerged perversely as an entrepreneurial Robin Hood, offering these very services – for a fee.

 

Between 1991 and 1998, when Russia’s stock, bond and currency markets collapsed, GDP fell by 30%, unemployment rose and inflation hit 2,500% in 1992 before falling to tolerable levels later in the decade – but only after wiping out savings and devaluing benefits. By 1999, more than a third of Russians lived below the poverty line. The hurried and ill-thought-through crash privatization campaign saw state assets being transferred into private hands at a fraction of their true value, a process exploited by those who already had cash and connections: corrupt officials, underground entrepreneurs and criminals.  As the state declined and organized crime ascended, for a while business people ended up coming to treat gangs simply as alternative service providers, different sources of the krysha – ‘roof’, slang for protection – so crucial to any venture in such uncertain times:

 

Protection meant more than just not being shaken down; it also meant not being cheated. The courts were corrupt, and, even if one could get a judgment in one’s favor, enforcing it would be problematic. Besides, this could take years and the best the courts could often do was order repayment of any outstanding debts or damages at the original rate.  Criminals now often considered themselves as protectors and arbiters.

 

Vladimir Putin, who succeeded Yeltsin as acting president in 1999 before a carefully managed election in 2000, is widely credited as having tamed the banditry. The anarchy of the 1990s passed, and with it the indiscriminate violence and the public fear. He deserves some credit, to be sure. Unlike Yeltsin, he had a clear vision for Russia, anchored on a strong state. There was no room in it for anything suggesting that the government was not in charge, whether opposition in parliament or gangsterism on the streets. However, Putin was as much symptom as cause: his elevation coincided with deeper political and economic pressures that permitted and indeed demanded this partial reassertion of central state authority. Putin made it clear that he would not tolerate overt or implicit challenges to the government. In the months leading up to his election, the flight of criminal capital out of Russia rose as gangsters hurriedly prepared themselves for a swift exit, in case Putin’s tough law-and-order rhetoric was more than just campaign theatre.

 

As deputy mayor of St Petersburg, Putin had regularly encountered the city’s underworld, and his job as deputy mayor had been to manage relations with a variety of powerful interests. It was important for the city administration to have a smooth relationship with the criminals, and this allowed them to expand their empire so long as they also enriched local officialdom and accepted its overall political control. This was in many ways the model for Putin’s national policy, and the criminals soon realized that what was available to them was an implicit social contract, their own ‘little deal’. So long as they were more discreet, so long as they cut officials into part of the action, then the state would not treat them as a threat. Of course, the police would still try to catch criminals, but they did not need to fear any sustained, comprehensive crackdown.

 

In many ways this paralleled Putin’s taming of the oligarchs, the mega-rich businessmen who had become such a politically powerful force under Yeltsin: they were offered a quiet life so long as they didn’t challenge the Kremlin. The three who were least willing to accept Putin’s terms, Boris Berezovsky, Mikhail Gusinsky and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, were forced into exile in the UK or, in the last case, sent to prison, but the rest fell into line. Likewise, most gangs were happy to accept these new rules of the game. Higher-order organised crime became increasingly regularized, corporate minded and integrated with elements of the state. When gangs did turn to the violent settling of scores – as sometimes they inevitably did – it was in a far more precise and targeted way, the sniper’s bullet supplanting the indiscriminate car bomb or drive-by shooting that had been such a bloody fixture of the 1990s.

 

Overall, the Russian underworld is defined not by hierarchical structures like the Italian mafia or Japanese yakuza but by a complex and varied underworld ecosystem. There are myriad territorially based groups, some controlling just a housing estate or a neighborhood, others cities and regions,

 

Networks rarely seek to establish territorial monopolies: Moscow is home to three major ones and also hosts a plethora of smaller groups such as the Mazutkinskaya, Izmailovskaya–Golyanovskaya and Lyubertsy gangs, which rise, fall and sometimes persist, perhaps loosely associated with one of the big groupings, but often with none or several.

 

The ‘blues’ under the vor ‘Trifon’ were individually tough, but less unified and disciplined than the ‘sportsmen’. The latter also benefited from the tacit support of the local political elite, whom they bribed widely and generously, acquiring a reputation as ‘reasonable gangsters’ (a term a former local police officer used describing them to me). The ‘blues’ were broken, followed by Uralmash’s other main rival, the Tsentralnaya gang. By 1993, Uralmash was dominant in Yekaterinburg. It moved quickly to establish its legitimate and illegitimate business empire and also sought political legitimacy by funding youth clubs, running charity campaigns and presenting itself as a club of concerned local businessmen. When the police arrested one of its alleged leading lights in 1993 on extortion charges, carefully orchestrated public protests followed, leading business figures extolled his charitable work, and political pressure was brought to bear. He was released within a few months.

 

Uralmash’s various enterprises managed to avoid duplication and competition, in part because of often micro-managing control from above. In many ways, the model was military in its insistence on the chain of command. This worked for a while, but it left Uralmash vulnerable. In Putin’s new era, it made the mistake of remaining too visible, too potentially powerful. Its chief at the time, Alexander Khabarov, overreached himself in both upperworld and underworld politics. He supported the muscular City Without Drugs initiative in Yekaterinburg while seeking to drive away gangs from the Caucasus. In part this was, ironically enough, a bid to control the local drug trade. He held a seat on Yekaterinburg city council between 2002 and 2005, even running for mayor in 2003. Just as alarming to Moscow, Uralmash had become involved in struggles over the region’s potentially lucrative resources, something the capital wanted to be able to dispense itself.

 

Uralmash’s hierarchical structure, once a strength, became a key weakness. The police – and criminal rivals – knew whom to target, and the operations of the system required management from above and thus regular contact between leaders and led. The plausible deniability that is often the godfather’s best friend was hard to maintain when there were telephone taps and other information attesting to people’s direct role in managing the gang’s operations. Uralmash seemed doomed and rival gangs began to circle. However, a new generation of leaders emerged who proved decisive and flexible. With some retrenchment, they restructured to present a less visible target and to retreat from politics.

 

Uralmash has become something more like a club of powerful criminal-businessmen, numbering between 14 and 18, who closely coordinate the operations of their respective outfits, maintaining tight discipline but a low profile. It retains many of the characteristics of its earlier incarnations, including a reluctance to include non-Slavs, probably reflecting both the relatively crude nationalism of its founders and their continued struggle to hold their position on east–west trafficking routes against encroachments of north Caucasian gangs from the south-west and Central Asians from the south-east.

 

Even by the unruly standards of the 1990s, the Russian Far East – sparsely populated, far from Moscow, characterized by sources of valuable natural resources and widespread poverty – witnessed violent struggles between gangs. Many were over relative pittances. Others, though, were about, or else could impact on, the massive potential profits to be made from the region’s extractive and fishing industries. In general terms, the functional near-collapse of the state apparatus gave regional bosses across Russia much freedom of maneuver to engage in or sanction criminal deals, but the relative isolation of the Far East (and its seeming irrelevance to politics in Moscow) made for even greater scope for the predatory exploitation of the region’s resources.

 

The underworld of the Russian Far East was thus relatively primitive. Many settlements could not sustain more than one, quite small local gang, typically working with the administration. Cities such as Vladivostok, capital of the Maritime Region, had more, but even then had nothing like the complexity of the criminal ecosystems of a Moscow or a St Petersburg. The paucity of resources and a lack of mutually beneficial interactions between these gangs, along with weaknesses in local law enforcement, tended to make competition more common and more bloody.  Commercial contacts brought with them interested potential collaborators from the Chinese underworld. Drugs, weapons, illegal migrants and then eventually timber, raw materials, rare wildlife and other more recondite commodities began to be traded, and the Russians also became launderers for a growing share of Chinese criminal cash.

 

Everything from fish to timber is smuggled out of Russia and finished goods and illegal migrants are smuggled in. Perhaps $1 billion of the $8 billion-plus Chinese heroin market now comes from Afghan drugs smuggled across Russia and Central Asia, but that pales before the tallies of these other products. Even illegally logged Russian timber for the Chinese construction market is a massive industry, worth perhaps $620 million. The Russian leg of this Northern Route is largely dominated by ethnic Russian and Russian-based gangs (including Georgian and Chechen), with a small proportion handled by Central Asian criminals, often using the diaspora of migrant laborers in Russia, and largely selling to and through those expatriates. Of the route’s total flow, more than a third stays in Russia. According to official figures, almost 6% of the country’s population, some 8.5 million people, are drug addicts or regular users. The key challenge is the growing proportion of users becoming addicts and the use of harder and more dangerous narcotics. Some 90% of drug addicts use heroin at least part of the time, making Russia the world’s leading heroin-using nation per capitaRussians consume some 20% of global heroin production. The remainder heads west into Europe or east and south into China, where it is largely sold in wholesale quantities to local gangs for resale.

 

Given that the main profit is downstream, where the drugs are sold close to the retail dealers, and the main costs upstream, where they are initially bought, there has to be faith in an equitable distribution of revenues. Successfully and profitably navigating this complex process thus encourages long-term relationships.

 

By the end of the 1990s, whereas once protection racketeering had essentially been regarded simply as a means of extorting payments from local businesses (typically demanding 20–30% of targets’ profits), now it became a weapon to take over a controlling interest in them instead. Increasingly the Tambovskaya looked to partnerships, either setting up new businesses or investing in existing ones. These companies not only served as fronts for criminal rackets, they also operated within the legitimate sector. For example, the group’s private security firms employed Tambovskaya enforcers, who were thus given an excuse legally to carry weapons, but they also provided genuine protection services for clients. The more legitimate business interests the Tambovskaya leaders acquired, the more they were forced to operate to legitimate standards. Just as the leaders of the Tambovskaya were gaining in legitimacy and political power in the upperworld –they were losing it in the underworld. The result was another gang war.

 

Many of the leaders of the Tambovskaya (or Tambovskaya–Malyshevskaya) have ended up operating in Spain, and others are to be found in Germany, the Baltic states and further afield. It is not that violence and coercion are no longer factors, but the core retains its influence over this loose network (one that has diffused to the point where it does not even have much of a distinctive identity) by controlling access to the money, opportunities and lifestyle to be found abroad. The bandity may be powerful at home, but, in the words of a Spanish police officer, ‘if they want to play a full part in Tambovskaya’s activities abroad, they need to stay in favor with the avtoritety’.

 

Facing claims that St Petersburg was becoming a focus for organized crime – claims which both deterred investors and were embarrassing to the new Russian prime minister and soon-to-be president, local boy Vladimir Putin – the St Petersburg authorities began to impose a degree of order.

 

It has largely devolved to numerous smaller outfits and operators and moved into new businesses such as methamphetamines and counterfeit goods. The role of the core appears now primarily be to resolve disputes, protect the network as a whole (especially against incursions by ‘highlanders’ from the north Caucasus) and to manage international flows of goods – drugs, people, stolen cars, counterfeit wares – and money. Indeed, in many ways the primary role of the core is to operate abroad.

 

 

Solntsevo established a role as a pseudo-state agency for the enforcement of contracts. Given that the Russian arbitrazh courts responsible for commercial cases were in the 1990s inefficient, backlogged and corrupt, retrieving unpaid debts or winning damages for broken contracts could be a lengthy and uncertain process. Solntsevo, on the other hand, could offer to resolve such disputes in its own way for a cut of the sum in question (typically a market-beating 20 per cent), discreetly and far more quickly.

 

The Chechens, a people whose national animal is the wolf, take a perverse pride in the hardships they have endured, with some reason, given that they have survived, unbroken and untamed. While the 1990s saw the resumption of their on-and-off struggle for independence, it also saw the extraordinary rise of the Chechen bratva (‘brotherhood’) within the Russian underworld. Conquered by the Russian Empire in the 19th century, as it spread south into the mountainous Caucasus region, the Chechens have periodically rebelled when they have felt their masters seemed weakened or distracted. The Russians have brutally repressed them each time, crushing the forms of resistance but never managing to extinguish the desire. Stalin, true to form, adopted the most murderously comprehensive response in 1944 when the Chechens took advantage of the Nazi invasion of the USSR to launch another series of risings. On 23 February – coincidentally Red Army Day in the Soviet calendar – the entire Chechen population, along with their ethnic cousins the Ingushetians, were ordered to report to local Party centers. This was the start of ‘Operation Lentil’, the forced deportation of two entire nations – men, women and children – a brutal and violent process in which anything from a quarter to a half of the total population died. Stalin had them scattered across Siberia and Central Asia. The Chechens would not be allowed to return home until after Stalin’s death.

 

When talking to Russian law enforcers, one of the constants is their determination to discuss Georgians, Chechens and others whose origins are in the Caucasus region: one could almost believe that they are to blame for most organized crime in Russia. Admittedly, as of 2004, ethnic Georgians reportedly comprised 35% of the vory v zakone across the former USSR, and only 2% of the population.

 

If the Slavic gangs have predominance in political and probably economic power within the Russian underworld and the Georgians the most vory – though not most members as a whole – then what is the distinctive asset for the ‘highlanders’ of the north Caucasus, and particularly the Chechens? The answer would appear to be cohesion and reputation. The Chechen criminals, often described as the ‘Chechen brotherhood’, have no formal structure in common. They do represent a distinctive criminal subculture, though, holding itself apart from the mainstream Russian underworld.

 

Chechens and encroaching Cossack soldier-settlers clashed and raided each other from the 17th century. In the 19th century, the Russian Empire brought the Caucasus region under its control, by conquest, punitive massacre and deportation, culminating in Stalin’s act of near-genocide. The Chechens declared independence, but Moscow proved unwilling to accept. Clumsy attempts to pressurize the Chechens back into the Russian Federation only served to rally them behind Dudayev, culminating in two wars: the first, 1994–6, in which the Chechens in effect fought Moscow into accepting partial autonomy, and then the second, from 1999, which saw them forced back into the fold.

 

Under Dudayev, Chechnya became a virtual criminal fiefdom. Favoritism, corruption, nepotism, clientelism and localism all flourished. The Chechen police force suddenly grew from the 3,000 officers it inherited from the Soviet period to 14 separate forces, accounting for some 17,000 armed officers, as hitmen and clan gunmen were sworn in as ‘police’. Likewise, the Chechen State Bank became a counterfeiter’s, fraudster’s and money launderer’s dream. In 1992 alone, at least 60 billion rubles (then $700 million) were siphoned from the Russian Central Bank

 

Today’s pro-Russian regime under Ramzan Kadyrov, even though it claims to have the lowest crime rate of any Russian region, is likewise bedeviled by credible accounts of lawlessness, banditry and corruption, and, as is discussed below, can in many ways be seen to have simply taken over the rackets of Chechnya to form a single criminal–state syndicate. Within Chechnya, many rebel warlords also maintained profitable side-lines in kidnap, banditry and drug smuggling. In many ways, Chechen organized crime draws on the patterns of Chechen society. Andrei Konstantinov noted that ‘to survive, the Chechen people were forced to develop their internal organizations to the highest level of all the peoples of the Caucasus’. They are typically either small gangs built around one or a few charismatic or effective leaders or else larger collections of such groups. Their characteristic structure is not a hierarchical pyramid so much as a snowflake, semi-independent groups around a coordinating council of elders. In many ways, these correspond to the building blocks of Chechen society: the extended family, and the clan, made up of multiple families. This parallel also extends to personnel and recruitment. The smaller gangs tend to be based initially around direct kinship or other personal ties.

 

Larger groupings tend in turn to bring together a variety of these smaller gangs, united either by the area in which they operate or else the teips from which their leaders trace back their origins.

 

Generally, the Chechens were involved largely in protection racketeering and some prostitution, but several, including Altangeriyev and Nukhayev, were rumoured to maintain good links with the KGB. In particular, the security agencies would turn a blind eye to their foreign currency dealing, in return for useful information about the tourists and travellers they encountered. Over time, they would largely be eclipsed by Slavic gangs. The Chechens were simply too few, and taking them on even became a mark of machismo for Slav gangsters.

 

The police have guns and badges, but the Chechens have something far more terrifying at their disposal: guns and folklore. Russians are, in a way, victims of their own literature. Nineteenth-century works such as Tolstoy’s Hadji Murat and Pushkin’s Prisoner of the Caucasus imparted a sometimes admiring, sometimes horrified picture of the Chechen as a fierce primitive who would never shirk from a fight, an impression only solidified by their performance during the Chechen wars. As a result, there is a general assumption that, to quote one gang hanger-on, ‘you don’t mess with the Chechens. If you challenge them, even if they know they will lose, they will fight, and they’ll summon their brothers and their cousins and their uncles and keep fighting. Even if they are going to lose, they’ll fight just to bring you down, too. They are maniacs.’

 

There is a perverse bonus for the Chechens in being considered implacable, indomitable maniacs: it makes sense to cut a deal with them, even if the logic of force and connections would seem not to be to their advantage. This actually has made Chechen-related gang violence less common since the mid-1990s, for the very reason that people are disinclined to challenge them. While this has denied them some of the scope for expansion enjoyed by their counterparts, it does mean that the Chechens have managed to dominate their chosen niche. This is evident in the way that the authorities ascribe them such a disproportionately powerful role within the Russian underworld.

 

By being able to claim that they ‘work with the Chechens’ (this is the usual expression) and thus can, if necessary, call on their support, gangs acquire considerable additional authority. Victims who might otherwise consider resisting their extortion are more likely to pay; rival gangs are less likely to encroach on their turf; and even law enforcers might think twice about taking them on. In return, the gang pays a cut of its proceeds and subordinates itself to the nearest influential Chechen godfather, who may call on it for services in the future.

 

The Russians won their war in Chechnya with extravagant brutality, overwhelming firepower – and Chechens. The Second Chechen War, which began in 1999 and formally ended in 2009 when Moscow announced the euphemistic end of ‘anti-terrorist operations’, was launched by Russian troops but largely concluded through the use of Chechen militias. Many were former rebels, able to take on the insurgents in the hills and villages on their own terms.

 

The irony is that Chechnya is arguably now more independent in practice than at any time since it was conquered under the tsars – and what is more, it gets the Russians to pay for it. More than 80 % of the Chechen republican budget is made up of subsidies from Moscow, as the Kremlin is desperate to avoid another bloody and unpopular war in the south. Not that ordinary Chechens get to benefit from much of this. Even back in 2006, a US diplomatic cable spoke of ‘massive corruption and state-sponsored banditry in Chechnya . . . Presidential Advisor Aslakhanov told us last December that Kadyrov expropriates for himself one-third off the top of all [federal] assistance.’ Money has gone on extravagant vanity projects, such as the construction of a shiny commercial center to which nobody goes, and a huge mosque dedicated to Akhmad Kadyrov.

 

Somehow, a luxurious lifestyle is achieved for Ramzan Kadyrov. While his official income is around 5 million rubles ($78,000), he has a personal zoo, and a stable of luxury cars including a Lamborghini Reventón, one of only twenty ever made and costing $1.25 million. It seems money also goes to keeping his family and subordinates – the two are often one and the same, such as cousin and parliamentarian Adam Delimkhanov – happy and loyal. Meanwhile, Kadyrov has been accused by the US Treasury of overseeing ‘an administration involved in disappearances and extrajudicial killings’.

 

There are thus still ‘two Chechnyas’. One, the mother country itself, features sometimes on trafficking routes, including heroin from Afghanistan and women into the Middle East. However, it is really best considered a single criminal–feudal operation, where the primary business is diverting and embezzling state funds. So long as Kadyrov controls the government – and the 20,000 or so Kadyrovtsy – and Moscow feels it cannot afford to move against him, this situation is likely to continue.

 

Georgia has been something of a special case. The Armenians and the Azeris have their criminal diaspora in Russia, to say nothing of the other north Caucasus peoples of the Russian Federation, from Dagestanis to Ingush. But certainly through the 2000s and into the 2010s, there was a common belief, even within the Russian underworld, that Georgians played a disproportionate role, at the Russians’ expense. According to an article in Izvestiya, in 2006, Georgian godfathers comprised almost a third of the underworld leaders in Moscow, and more than half across the country as a whole.

 

Even back in tsarist times, Georgian criminals crossed the boundaries between rural banditry and urban gangsterism, and that most (in)famous Georgian, Stalin himself, blurred the lines between revolution and plunder. Under Soviet rule, the scale of criminality in the republic was infamous: it was known for corruption ‘second to none . . . carried out on an unparalleled scale and with unrivalled scope and daring’. The Soviet Union’s slide into institutionalized corruption in the 1960s and 1970s meant that, despite overt campaigns against ‘speculation’, bribe taking, embezzlement and theft, there emerged ‘organized criminal clans of a new type which brought together professional criminals, black marketeers – the clients of whom existed amongst bureaucrats at the highest level – and corrupt law enforcement officials’.

 

According to Soviet police data, as of the end of the USSR, one in three of all vory v zakone were Georgians, even though they made up only one in 50 of the total population. Alexander Gurov, the Soviet police criminologist who arguably did the most to bring the problem of organized crime to the fore, is sure that, even back in the 1970s, Georgia’s gangsters already had a place at the table and in the system. He recounted that a local Party boss, whenever the crime figures looked embarrassingly excessive or there was the risk of an inquiry from higher up, ‘would summon to a meeting the [local police] chief, the [local KGB] chief, and the local crime boss, and say, “How can you have allowed there to be such a rise in crime?” He would address this first and foremost to the crime boss. Who would at once start “taking steps to reduce the crime rate”.’

 

President Mikheil Saakashvili’s government embarked on a serious campaign against the vory, one that drew on lessons from the Italian struggle against the mafia. Mere membership of the ‘thieves’ world’ in was criminalized. The property of vory v zakone could be seized and they would be held in a special maximum-security prison, where they could be segregated from the other prisoners. Meanwhile, a massive purge of the law enforcement apparatus was launched in a notably effective campaign against corruption, while a public education program sought to combat widespread attitudes that condoned bribe-taking and glorified the gangsters. Faced with the threat of arrest, harsh detention and the confiscation of their assets, Georgia’s vory upped and left.

 

Negotiating succession is one of the riskiest times for godfathers and gangs alike, especially for those with relatively informal internal rules and no clear, strong and legitimate hierarchy. External rivals and the police may seek to take advantage of temporary disunity and mistrust; internal power struggles sharpen; losers bear grudges or fear reprisals; winners seek to promote their cronies and harbor suspicions of their rivals.

 

One of the problematic by-products of the relative stability of the 2000s underworld is a decline in social mobility. In the 1990s, ambitious younger gangsters could expect rapid promotion thanks either to the exploitation of new opportunities (often seized from other gangs) or the murders of their seniors. However, as turf boundaries hardened, killings declined and new opportunities became scarcer, promotions came more slowly and rarely.

 

Azeris, though, form a more distinct community, one which has been able to rely both on kinship ties and on its members’ ability to move back and forth between Russia and Azerbaijan, to avoid arrest and smuggle goods. Thus, in many cities from Moscow to Yekaterinburg to Vladivostok, relatively small but tightly knit Azeri communities spawned their own gangs.

 

Up to the end of the Soviet Union and even into the 1990s, organized crime in Russia tended to be ethnically structured. As elsewhere, modernity, social and physical mobility, and the greater interpenetration of societies has broken down these old divisions. Just as the ‘Italian mafia’ in prohibition-era America included such distinctly un-Mediterranean figures as ‘Dutch’ Schultz and Meyer Lansky, of German-Jewish and Polish-Jewish stock respectively, so too did business and the search for capable allies break down the old solidarities in Russia. The 1990s were times of hype and horror as ‘the Russian mafia’ – often regarded as a single, monolithic conspiracy – emerged as a suitable bugbear to replace the Soviet threat. FBI Director Louis Freeh thought that ‘Russian organized crime presents the greatest long-term threat to the security of the United States . . . The United States is presented with a well-organized, well-funded, sophisticated and brutal conspiracy.’

 

It is certainly true that one of the most striking characteristics of Russian organized crime is how quickly and effectively it has become a truly global phenomenon, even a brand. Its networked, post-modernist model not only allows these criminals to respond quickly to new opportunities, it permits the incorporation of new members regardless of ethnicity, so long as they can work within the Russians’ rules. The first wave of expansion into Europe was largely by vory moving to areas with sizeable Russian communities or, as in the case with many former Warsaw Pact or Soviet states, where they had existing contacts with local criminals and corrupt officials. The Baltic States, Poland and Hungary were all early targets, soon followed by a drift into Austria and Germany. Similar early targets were Israel (where many used real or fake Jewish ethnicity to ensure immigration rights) and the USA.

 

Mafias do not, on the whole, migrate. As Federico Varese has meticulously demonstrated in his Mafias on the Move, the myth of a globalized, universal criminal class able to migrate to wherever a new opportunity seems to be emerging is just that – a myth. Generally, when ‘mafiosi find themselves in the new locale, it is not of their own volition; they have been forced to move there by court orders, to escape justice or mafia infighting and wars. They are not seeking new markets or new products but are instead just making the most of bad luck.’ Even when they do move, the odds are they will fail in their efforts to establish their criminal enterprises in a new land, where they lack local contacts, often even the local language. Instead, Varese’s findings are that for this transplantation to be successful, there are two requirements: First, no other mafia group (or state apparati offering illegal protection) must be present. It is too much of an uphill struggle for an incoming mafia to set up shop in the presence of a powerful local competitor. Second, a mafia group is most likely to succeed in transplanting when its presence coincides with the sudden emergence of new markets.

 

Organized crime from Russia is undoubtedly a significant feature of the global underworld, but usually in the form of facilitators rather than street-level thugs. These vory are the business partners of local groups: selling them heroin from Afghanistan, laundering their money through Russia’s still-murky financial system, providing weapons and occasionally someone who knows how to use them. In this way, even if the Russian mafia is not a direct problem in a country, it can have a serious impact by providing existing gangs with access to expertise, services and criminal products to which normally they could never aspire.

 

Instead of the classic hierarchical gang, often drawn from a single ethnicity, home region or kin group, this is a flexible, networked criminal phenomenon that embraces a wide range of businesses (both licit and illicit), practices and even nationalities, but nonetheless has certain distinctive ways of operating. Indeed, ‘Russian organized crime’ may not necessarily be Russian, is often not especially organized, and does rather more than just crime.

 

In Central Asia, a succession of more-or-less authoritarian regimes resting on exploitative elites run Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Beyond low-level street gangs, which are often suppressed by security forces unconcerned with legal niceties, the main crime organizations will invariably either be run by elements of the elite apparatus or be heavily dependent on them. Their role is often to act as agents diverting profits from corruption and embezzlement of state assets to the elite, or else to manage key illegal businesses for them, especially drug trafficking. Here, the gangsters are often little more than deniable agents of the corrupt elites.

 

Russia’s criminals had particular reasons to want to internationalize their operations as quickly as possible. There was a pervasive (if misguided) belief that there could be a hard-line Communist revival or even some kind of nationalist–authoritarian coup. This helps explain the extreme measures taken – with Western acquiescence – to rig the 1996 presidential elections to ensure Boris Yeltsin beat his Communist rival.

 

By internationalizing, they could secure revenue streams in alternative currencies (to protect them from the collapse of the ruble), prepare fall-back options if they were suddenly denied access to their main sources of income, and perhaps gain the right to live abroad through citizenship, investment or strategic marriage. That way, they could escape the Motherland if things suddenly began to look dangerous.

 

Developing operations abroad was not so much a source of revenue, but a drain: a loss-leader or investment in personal security. It was also a matter of prestige, a form of consumption as conspicuous as the shiny imported limousine and the equally shiny domestic arm-candy. Where it could, Russian organized crime did what most ethnic migrant gangs do: preyed on its own people, exploiting immigrants who lacked their own resources, their own support structures and, often, faith in local law enforcement.

 

The indigenous gangs’ home turf advantage in central Europe in particular often manifested itself in the tacit or even active support of local police and security structures, which had also come to terms with the ‘invasion’ they faced. The debate about the intrusion of Russian organized crime often quickly acquired a clearly nationalist tone, with talk of ‘colonization’ and ‘imperialism’, and became securitized. The presence of Russian gangs began to be considered – not without reason – also in terms of the presence of potential Russian spies, saboteurs and agents of influence.

 

As one Estonian Security Police (Kapo) officer put it to me, ‘in the late 1990s, and again after 2007 [when Moscow launched a cyberattack on Estonia], dealing with Russian gangs was not just a police issue, but a vital security one’. Thus, especially in central Europe and the Baltic states, a moral panic about the Russians led to a particular focus on combating them, even at the expense of addressing indigenous threats. As a result, by the end of the 1990s, the first expansionist wave of Russian and Eurasian vory had largely been cut down to size. They had been either forced to withdraw or brought down to becoming just one more player in their respective foreign underworlds.

 

One of the recurring debates about the expansion of European empires in the 19th century has been how far one can ascribe imperialism to the Machiavellian strategies of metropolitan governments and how far one should instead look to the self-interest, values, ambitions and interactions of the men on the ground, from soldiers to merchants, who often shaped or simply ignored policy from the center. So, too, it is essential to realize in this context that what from the outside may look like grand strategy may well in fact be the result of a confluence of intent, chance and personal interest.

 

There are undoubtedly organized crime gangs based within the ethnic Russian communities in the United States. But efforts to turn them into outposts of some global crime empire failed.

 

Their role in the Czech Republic’s underworld by the 2010s was best summed up by one police officer as ‘the criminals behind the criminals, not controlling them, but selling them everything they need’. They have instead concentrated on working as illegal wholesalers, criminal coordinators and underworld investors in businesses of every kind.

 

There is no doubt that Russian and Russian-linked organized crime can be found across the globe. It is defrauding millions out of the US Medicare and Medicaid programs, swapping heroin for cocaine with Latin American drug gangs, laundering money around the Mediterranean, selling guns in Africa, trafficking women into the Middle East and raw materials into East Asia, and buying up real estate in Australia.

 

At least as often, the commodity is expertise. Even back in the 1990s it was the Russians who introduced the New York Cosa Nostra to the heady, white-collar profits from fuel excise scams, and these days 60% of the Russian or Eurasian organized crime operations investigated by the FBI across the USA relate to frauds of one kind of another.

 

A classic example is their role providing financial services to the global underworld. Any criminal needs the ability to move and above all launder their profits so that they can use the money they make safely, without law enforcement being able to prove connection to a crime. The Russians have been able to develop a wide range of laundries, often through their own financial system, but also by exploiting less scrupulous or demanding jurisdictions abroad. Typically, the money is first ‘prewashed’ within the former Soviet region, such as through Ukraine or Moldova, knowing that, while this does not provide particular respectability, it does at least add an extra layer of legal and technical complexity for police investigators or diligent bank officers seeking to identify the source of the funds. Then it will move through countries such as Cyprus, Israel and Latvia, where the Russians have established relationships and front companies, before moving on to increasingly highly regarded jurisdictions, not least the City of London, in order to ‘wash’ it thoroughly.

 

The Russians are willing to deal with other criminals of near enough any type, ethnicity or structure. It is an irony that gangsters from a society in which racist, even xenophobic, attitudes are still quite common are the new internationalists, eager to cut deals with anyone and happy to recruit not just agents but partners outside their community.

 

A Vietnamese shopkeeper in California would covertly duplicate a customer’s credit card information, which was then transmitted to Chinese criminals in Hong Kong and thence to Malaysia. There the data was embossed onto false credit cards. These were couriered by air to Milan, where Neapolitan gangsters from the Camorra sold them to a Russian group in the Czech Republic. The cards were flown to Prague and distributed to agents who fanned out to the major cities of Europe where they almost – but not quite – maxed out their cards buying luxury goods. These goods were then flown back to Moscow for sale in retail outlets. What could be a better example of today’s global supply chains?

 

The Russian gangs abroad now tend to avoid overt displays of their criminal status, hiding behind indigenous allies, anonymous front corporations and legitimate Russian expat and business communities. They are also especially prone to seek to woo and buy local protectors within the political community. The close intertwining of business, crime, politics and the security apparatus also means that the gangsters can often rely on access to official resources, and even advance warning of foreign investigations.

 

The groups in the USA have especially acquired a reputation for complex and lucrative frauds of private and government medical insurance schemes. Overall, by 2011, an estimated $60–90 billion was being stolen a year from the Medicare and Medicaid budgets. Russian and Eurasian gangs appear to be the largest players in this business, but even so they do not account for an absolute majority of losses. In 2010, the Armenian Mirzoyan–Terdjanian Organization was charged with stealing $100 million from Medicare, for example. Breaking the records, though, was a Ukrainian and Russian operation in Brighton Beach that involved nine clinics and allegedly conspired to defraud private medical insurance companies of $279 million over 5 years, until it was broken in 2012. Both cases were largely proven in the courts, and their masterminds received sentences of three and 25 years in prison, respectively.

 

The globalization of the underworld has also forced the Russians to begin to share their own markets with competitors and partners from around the world.

 

However much the Medicare fraudsters of the USA may make, their profits pale into insignificance compared with the estimated $13 billion a year the Russian Northern Route for Afghan heroin is worth, for example,

 

In an age of market economics and pseudo-democratic politics, where power is largely disconnected from any real ideology beyond an inchoate blend of nationalisms, arguably it is rather that the vory have diversified, and perhaps even colonized the wider Russian elites. There are racketeers, drug traffickers, people smugglers and gunrunners – but there is also a deepening connection with the worlds of politics and business. Today’s vory are exploiting the opportunities of Russia’s cannibalistic capitalism, and likewise the state itself, or at least its agents, are exploiting their own criminal opportunities in an increasingly organized way. In 2016, for example, the police raided the apartment of one of their own senior officers, Colonel Dmitry Zakharchenko, ironically enough the acting head of a department within its anti-corruption division. There they found $123 million: so much money that the investigators had to pause the search while they found a container large enough to hold all that cash.

 

Deep crime and the deep state Grinda cited a ‘thesis’ by Alexander Litvinenko, the former Russian intelligence official who worked on organized crime issues before he died in late 2006 in London from poisoning under mysterious circumstances, that the Russian intelligence and security services –the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and military intelligence (GRU) – control organized crime in Russia. Grinda said that he believes the FSB is ‘absorbing’ the Russian mafia, and rather than being under the control of the criminals, the Kremlin (or at least the security apparatus) is a shadowy puppeteer making the gangs dance on its strings. In practice, the truth is rather that the relationship between organized crime and the state at local and national levels is complex, nuanced and often strikingly cooperative. It is as simplistic to suggest that organized crime outright controls the Kremlin as that it is controlled by it. Rather, it prospers under Putin because it can go with the grain of his system.

 

There is, needless to say, a very high level of corruption, which provides a very conducive environment for organized crime. Even President Putin has acknowledged the problem and vowed to ‘eliminate the root causes of corruption and punish particular officials’, adding, ‘We defeated oligarchy. We will surely defeat corruption.’ However, there is little evidence he truly intends more than a public show of resolution and a periodic purge of officials sufficiently junior and far outside his personal circle to be disposable scapegoats. The relationship between the elite and the gangsters is not just one of buyer and bought, but typically of symbiosis or deeply rooted and mutually profitable relationships, which are often long term.

 

The modern Russian state is a much stronger force than in the 1990s, and jealous of its political authority. The gangs which prosper in modern Russia tend to do so by working with rather than against the state, and a new political generation has risen to power dependent for their futures on the Kremlin’s patronage rather than local underworld contacts. In this respect, if Russia is truly ruled by a ‘deep state’ – the term comes from the way Turkey for so long seemed to be run by an inner elite within an elite, controlling politics behind the scenes – then there are also ‘deep crime’ structures.  Do well by the Kremlin, and the Kremlin will turn a blind eye. Connecting political figures, government officials, business leaders and criminal kingpins, these loose networks of patronage and mutual interest are very difficult to plot

 

A key characteristic of today’s Russian organized crime is the scale and depth of its interpenetration with the (sometimes only seemingly) legitimate economy. It is impossible to deny that this is a considerable problem, with criminals controlling financial, commercial and industrial enterprises, exerting influence over government contracts and simply stealing businesses and assets. However, it is equally impossible to put any kind of meaningful figure on it.

 

Under Putin, corrupt officials have continued their ascent back to the commanding heights they occupied in Soviet times.

 

Since the 1980s, when tourists began to become more common in Moscow and Leningrad, Russian gangsters have used the phrase ‘ironing the firm’ to mean stealing or extorting money out of foreigners.

 

In the late 1990s, murder was a depressingly common way of resolving business disputes. The notorious ‘aluminum wars’ of the early 1990s saw thugs occupying factories, a string of murders, and lurid accounts of organized-crime links across the metals industries. Contract killings remained frequent – according to Professor Leonid Kondratyuk of the MVD’s Scientific Research Institute, even in the early Putin years they were ‘seeing somewhere between 500 and 700 such killings annually. But those are just the murders we know for sure were contract killings. In reality, it’s probably two to three times higher.’

 

The Vora are well aware that an honest and well-functioning police force and a dedicated and incorruptible judiciary would be a serious threat to them. As a result, they have a strong interest in preserving the status quo and their ability to use violence or corruption as and when their circumstances dictate. This collective commitment to the status quo preserves their power, but it also sets rules and boundaries, as do the very economics of the market.

 

Since Putin’s return to the Kremlin in 2012, after a four-year interregnum while his puppet-president Dmitry Medvedev kept his chair warm for him, things have changed. A combination of economic pressures, the breakdown in relations with the West after the 2014 annexation of Crimea and invasion of south-eastern Ukraine, and the impact of consequent Western sanctions, has meant that at the time of writing many of the bad old ways are slowly reasserting themselves.

 

The underworld is an economy in its own right. One as extensive as Russia’s inevitably develops a complex array of service industries and market niches. The first and most obvious need was for people who were able credibly, willingly and effectively to use violence and there remains a strong supply of would-be thugs and leg breakers. For more sophisticated purposes, organized crime looked to sportsmen and martial artists – many of the first gangs came from sports clubs, such as weightlifters and wrestlers or to current and former police and military personnel.

 

Special executive jets run by the air force for senior Defense Ministry officials were instead being chartered illegally by members of the Izmailovo–Golyanovskaya gang. Services routinely engaged by the criminals range from the serious, such as wiretapping by the security agencies, through to the near-trivial, such as paying off an official for the right to place a flashing blue emergency-services light on your car. These migalki, a bone of contention for many Russian motorists, are widely abused by officials, business people – and gangsters – to allow them to run red lights and generally evade the traffic rules.

It is not that the vory have disappeared so much as that everyone is now a vor.

 

Fruit and vegetable markets since 1991 have been lucrative targets, fought over regularly by the Caucasus gangsters in particular, given how much of the produce comes from their regions. In 1992, Azeris controlled the three main markets – Cheryomushky, Severny and Tsaritskinsky – and, while the geography of the city’s wholesalers has changed over time, bloody wars for them have raged periodically ever since.

 

The Cosa Nostra made millions from their control of New York’s Fulton Street Fish Market through most of the twentieth century. Control of access to any commodity is valuable, and the markets are also great distribution hubs for all kinds of illegal commodities, from drugs to counterfeit goods.

 

In 2008, the global financial crisis had knock-on effects throughout the underworld, and in Russia it forced many of the smaller gangs and those less diversified in their economic interests into retreat. Competition for assets sharpened, and those groups without powerful political connections lost out. Dzhaniyev had never bothered cultivating a krysha in Moscow, and he paid for this with a number of reversals, such as the closure of the Cherkizovo market in eastern Moscow in 2009. Dzhaniyev largely dominated this massive and ramshackle bazaar, using it to sell illegal goods and services and demanding tribute from traders. This was a time when the city was looking to clean up its image, though, and he lacked the political connections to be able to prevent Moscow City Council from shutting the market down, taking a substantial economic hit in the process.

 

In 2014, Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the subsequent rapid worsening of its relations with the West led to a sudden economic crisis. Again, gangs without allies, political cover and deep pockets were vulnerable.

 

In 2017, the Russian underworld is at once relatively calm – the odd assassination notwithstanding – and under growing pressure. It is by no means certain that a new round of major criminal conflicts is coming and, even if it does erupt, it will not reach the same pitch or be as indiscriminate as those of the 1990s. Yet such a prospect is closer than at any time since then.

 

The market contractions of 2008 spelled doom for some, but created great opportunities for others. The larger, more diversified groups cherry-picked those underworld assets they wanted and snapped them up at fire-sale prices. Gangs able to tap into state resources, whether government funds or the ability to flash a badge or grant or withhold a permit, did best. The 2008 crisis further strengthened incestuous links between corrupt officials, the state machine and the underworld, especially at the local level.

 

As times get harder for ordinary Russians, the impoverished souls who once would go to local houses of ill repute now gravitate towards the even cheaper and more desperate individual prostitutes of the streets. Facing a fall in their revenues, the brothel owners in part have diversified to selling narcotics, their premises becoming modern-day equivalents of the old opium den. To move into drug dealing, the brothel keepers typically have to get deeper into debt with the gangsters who previously just took a cut in return for leaving them free to ply their trade.

 

The trouble is that this kind of gangster, the small-scale local hoodlum, also feels the pinch. Typical is ‘Dvornik’ (‘Doorman’), a thug-made-moderately-good who was arrested in 2015. His problem was that not only did he have a lifestyle to maintain that involved high-stakes gambling and imported – and thus especially expensive considering the ruble’s depreciation – whisky, but he had a crew who expected to be paid and he also owed tribute to a bigger-time gangster in return for the right to practice his rackets. As one police officer involved in the case put it, ‘he had assumed that everything was going to go like before, or even better. He hadn’t saved or made plans in case the spring ran dry.’ A gang leader who can’t pay his crew has no gang; a gangster who can’t pay his debts has no future. As a result, ‘Dvornik’ had no option but to lean more heavily on the businesses on his turf, not least pushing those brothel keepers all the harder. And the local cops who also expected their regular payments in order to turn a blind eye were feeling the pinch and increasing their own demands accordingly.  ‘Dvornik’ was soon behind bars. The fact that, because of the pressure on his income, he had started to skimp on his bribes to the local police may also have had a bearing on the case.

 

Some brothel keepers simply could not cope in these conditions, and their businesses folded. Those who survived, though, generally did so by diversifying into even more dangerous ventures, such as narcotics, and this in turn meant that they fell further into the control of organized crime. In many cases, they accumulated more debt. The local gangsters, themselves under pressure, often simply sold their debts on to the larger, richer gangs in the city,

 

Criminals found new uses for the brothels as places to launder and move counterfeit money, reducing costs by staffing them with trafficked sex slaves from Central Asia. The depressing fact is that this actually got the approval of corrupt local police officers: the higher the turnover of the business, and the more serious the crimes involved, then the heftier the bribes they could expect. In this way, in Kapotnya at least, Russia’s economic crisis meant hard times for consumers and small businesses, and the petty gangsters and corrupt officials preying on both.

 

When the Kremlin slapped counter-sanctions on Western foodstuffs in 2014, consumers seeking their Italian salami and French cheeses had to turn to the black market. Legitimate companies trying to bypass the control regime – only handed a greater market share to the outright criminal smugglers, who had the years of experience and corrupt contacts to move shipments across the border. Lest this sound trivial, consider than a single ‘cheeserunner’ gang broken up in 2015 was accused of earning two billion roubles (some $34 million) in just six months.

 

The Afghan heroin Northern Route was and is the most lucrative, of course, but also the hardest to break into. Nonetheless, it has meant that gangs along the main arteries, able either to participate directly or simply to demand tribute for safe passage, have become increasingly wealthy. With wealth, gangs can corrupt officials, bankroll further opportunities, keep leaders and ‘soldiers’ happy and attract new recruits, including disaffected members of other gangs.

 

As Vladimir Putin increasingly legitimizes his rule – and pays off his closest allies – with various prestige projects, this too creates all kinds of new opportunities, large and small. The 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics was a particularly infamous honeypot. The whole project cost an estimated $55 billion, making it the most expensive winter Games on record. In part, this reflects the challenges of mounting winter games in a subtropical venue, but it is also a product of staggering levels of waste and theft. According to the international NGO Transparency International, corruption added fully 50% to the construction costs, suggesting perhaps $15 billion was up for grabs.  The real money was made by the oligarchs granted the major contracts worth billions, but even through subcontracted work such as providing labor-ganged workers (often virtually trafficked from Central Asia and forcibly returned once the job was done), the major criminal players could also benefit from the actual construction.

 

The government’s decision in 2009 to ban all organized gambling and instead develop four (later six) Las Vegas-style casino tourism hubs is also having an inevitable impact on the underworld. Of course, in reality this is proving every bit as effective as prohibition in the United States and Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign, driving habitual gamblers into underground, unregulated games and casinos run by organized crime. Beyond competition over these games, the new mega-sites, all at border locations meant also to cater for overseas markets, offer inviting new business prospects for the criminals.

 

In 2011 Russia accounted for about 35% of global cybercrime revenue, or between $2.5 and $3.7 billion. This is wildly out of proportion with the country’s share of the global information technology market, which at the time was around 1%. Even though China and the USA are still in the lead, it is striking just how many key players and operations in global cybercrime are Russian. As of 2017, the five FBI ‘most wanted’ cybercriminals are four Russians (one a Latvian Russian) and a cell of Iranian hackers. An operation which stole around $1 billion from some 100 financial institutions around the world in 2015 using the so-called Anunak malware (malicious software) was tracked back to Russia.

 

At home, the hackers generally appear not to be part of the existing criminal networks. Instead, much like professional assassins, forgers or money launderers, they are specialists for hire, engaged for a particular operation. More often, they form their own virtual groups and networks, increasingly cross-border and multi-ethnic ones, to commit crimes either for themselves or for hire to other gangs. They were, for example, reportedly the technical experts who cracked police databases for the Japanese yakuza in the 1990s, transferred stolen money abroad for Australian gangsters in the 2000s, and obtained credit card details for the Italians in the 2010s.

 

The state is once again the biggest gang in town, and local and national political/administrative figures are stronger than their criminal counterparts. While the movers and shakers of central government have little reason to fear or need the criminals – even if they do often move within common social circles – at a local level, the opportunities for deeper cooperation nationally between political and criminal are much more evident and the relationship not quite so one sided. One by-product of this is that even if the national government does ever get serious about fighting corruption and organized crime, this may be resisted and side-lined on the ground by the gangsters’ allies, clients and patrons.

 

Spanish prosecutor José Grinda González reportedly said that, in his view, the Kremlin’s ‘strategy is to use [organised crime] groups to do whatever the [government of Russia] cannot acceptably do as a government’. Gangsters are not just paid but offered immunity in return for carrying out covert missions. Grinda claimed, for example, that vor v zakone Zakhar Kalashov sold guns to Kurdish terrorists to destabilise Turkey under orders from the GRU, Russian military intelligence.

 

Europol’s 2008 Russian Organized Crime Assessment concluded that it had a ‘medium level direct impact’ on the European Union, mainly felt through their trafficking operations, but a high level indirect impact on the EU. This is experienced through money laundering and investments. These activities distort and may even destroy legal competition; raise prices and inflation in the property and other similar markets; increase corruption of business practices and culture; create concrete losses to legal business and national economies in the EU; increase the lucrativeness and social acceptance of criminal activities; facilitate OC-penetration and integration into legal structures; legalize the proceeds of crime, the criminals and their activities and in turn also seriously damage many legal elements of the EU societies.

 

Is Crimea the first conquest in history conducted by gangsters working for a state? It is hardly novel for gangsters to be used in times of war, but, unusually in this case, the criminals were combatants, not just collaborators, and they were not merely unleashed against an enemy like 18th century privateers – pirates given sanction so long as they attacked the other side – but integrated into the invader’s forces. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it did so not only with its infamous ‘little green men’

 

Special forces without any insignia – but also with criminals. To the gangsters, this was not about geopolitics, less yet about redressing what Putin called the ‘outrageous historical injustice’ that occurred when the Crimean Peninsula was transferred from Russia to Ukraine in 1954, it was about business opportunities. It is hardly coincidental that the two parts of Ukraine in which Russia is, as of writing, entrenched are both areas where the old-style vory are equally thick on the ground.) Even before the collapse of the USSR at the end of 1991, Crimea had become a haven for smuggling, black marketeering and a lucrative array of embezzlement schemes centering on the region’s health spas and holiday resorts. As independent Ukraine struggled in the early 1990s both with economic crisis and the near-collapse of its law enforcement structures, organized crime assumed an increasingly visible and violent form.

 

By the 2000s, gangster-businessmen were increasingly dominant within Crimea. Kiev appeared to have little interest in bringing good governance and economic prosperity to this peninsula of ethnic Russians, and this gave the local elites both free rein and also a perverse legitimacy. Crimea regarded itself as neglected by, and separate from, the political mainstream. In this political, economic and social vacuum, the new mafia–business–political empires could thrive. As one US embassy cable in 2006 put it, these ‘Crimean criminals were fundamentally different than in the 1990s: then, they were sportsuit-wearing, pistol-wielding “bandits” who gave Crimea a reputation as the “Ukrainian Sicily” and ended up in jail, shot, or going to ground; now they had moved into mainly above-board businesses, as well as local government.’ It added that ‘dozens of figures with known criminal backgrounds were elected to local office in the March 26 elections’.

 

When Moscow moved to seize Crimea on the morning of 27 February, it deployed the ‘little green men’, some local police who solidly supported the coup, and also thugs in mismatched fatigues and red armbands, nonetheless often clutching brand new assault rifles. These ‘self-defense forces’ spent as much time occupying businesses – including a car dealership owned by a partner of Ukraine’s next president, Petro Poroshenko – and throwing their weight around on street corners as they did actually securing strategic locations. While some were veterans and volunteers, many were the foot soldiers of the peninsula’s crime gangs.

 

The new elite is thus a triumvirate of Moscow appointees, local politicians and gangsters made good. And they did indeed make good, quickly moving to skim funds from the sums Moscow provided to start developing the peninsula, and simply expropriating properties owned by the Ukrainian government and its allies. In theory, these properties were sold at auction to raise more development funds, but often in practice the ‘auctions’ were clearly rigged sweetheart deals. The beneficiaries are the politicians, the oligarchs and the gangsters. Coal, gold, petrol and tobacco. That is what they are fighting for in eastern Ukraine.

 

Moscow presumably thought that by relying heavily on local militias it could fight its undeclared war against Kiev deniably and on the cheap, but in practice it created a situation in which it was often scarcely in control of its notional proxies. Indeed, from the first it was being embezzled by them, and soon began to pay the price in terms of an upturn in violent crime and illegal arms dealing back home. In Rostov-on-Don, the southern Russian city acting as a logistical support hub for the war, there was a growing problem. In 2015, the Rostov region was the ninth most criminal in all Russia, but by 2016 it had become the seventh, and the city itself had become, according to some measures, the most dangerous in Europe – having not even been in the top ten before.

 

For the vory, this was a priceless opportunity to turn their street muscle into a form of legal power. Although post-Soviet Ukraine had had at best partial success in building a working law-based state (if anything, by 2014 corruption was an even greater problem there than in Russia), the east had been especially problematic, in the grip of a seemingly unbreakable cabal of business oligarchs and corrupt political managers. In short, ‘Donbas’s magnates – some criminals already under Soviet law – prevented the rule of law from emerging in the Donbas and severely limited the formation of a civil society’. Combine that with a heavy concentration of local prisons, and a faltering local economy that encouraged street gangs, and it is perhaps no surprise that it was commonly said that ‘every third man in the Donetsk region is in prison, has been in prison, or will be in prison’.

 

The illegal production of counterfeit alcohol and tobacco and its export to Russia, Ukraine and Europe increased, now that the criminals were essentially in charge. Moscow still depends on recruiting cybercriminals or simply calling on them from time to time, in return for their continued freedom.

 

There are serious risks for Moscow in this kind of state–crime collusion. It is easy to understand the temptations for Vladimir Putin. Russia is not in the best position to claim great-power status and challenge the West. Its military is smaller than the combined forces of European NATO, even without counting Canada and the USA. Its economy is smaller than that of New York state. However, it is an authoritarian regime able to focus its resources on its goals; Putin does not have to worry unduly about democratic accountability; and he has the combination of pragmatism and ruthlessness to exploit whatever advantages he can find. Russia’s underworld may be a serious drain on the country’s social, political and economic development, but it also can be and is being mobilized as a tool of foreign policy, in arguably the world’s first criminal–political war.

 

His position within the FSB allows him to access the wealth of information that the security services in an authoritarian state hold. If you need to know exactly how much money a target has before shaking them down, if you want to know who really owns that company you’ve got your eye on, or if you would simply like to have someone’s private mobile phone number, and that of his mistress, then Sergei’s your man. It presumably does not prevent him from also doing his job well, but at the same time the access and assets of his position are available for hire. Most of his clients appear to be ‘business’, but in modern Russia, where the worlds of business, crime and politics intersect so freely, this means nothing.

 

As the Russian underworld loses its old myths and codes, as the title of vor v zakone becomes commodified and turned into an empty vanity, as the senior criminals set up corporations and charities and seek to blend into mainstream society, and as politicians start talking like gangsters, who is taming and teaching whom? Somewhere around the turn of the twenty-first century, state-building thieves and criminalized statesmen met in the middle. The Russian-American journalist Paul Klebnikov – himself killed in a mob hit in Moscow in 2004 – quoted Konstantin Borovoi, chair of the Russian Commodity Exchange, as saying, ‘The mafia is an attempt to imitate the government. It has its own tax system, its own security service, and its own administrative system. Any entrepreneur, in addition to paying taxes to the government, has to pay taxes to this shadow government.’

 

It is too simplistic simply to call this a ‘mafia state’. Under Putin, while people at the heart of the regime are undoubtedly interested in enriching themselves, there is also an ideological mission dear to his heart. Putin’s appeals to Russian patriotism, his self-declared mission of restoring to Russia its ‘sovereignty’ and its status in the world – making Russia great again

 

Two processes have taken place. One could be called the – limited – ‘nationalization’ of the underworld. Some of its members have been rolled into the state elite, whether in the form of avtoritet businessmen or gangsters turned politicians. At the same time, there is a clear consensus that the license the criminals have received is contingent on their living po-ponyatiyam, with the state periodically defining these understandings, whether it means not supporting the Chechen rebels or doing the intelligence services an occasional favor.

 

The second process is the ‘gangsterisation’ of the formal sectors, one which long predates Putin, but whose parameters have again become more clearly defined under him. In politics, the state will rule by presidential decree and legislative process when it can, but will use behind-the-scenes deals and deniable violence when it must.  This is a state still torn between a legalising impulse and a habitual lawlessness.

 

In 2016, according to Rosstat, the Federal Service for State Statistics, 21.2% of working Russians were employed in the informal sector, a rise of 0.7 percentage points on the year before and the highest level since 2006 when the current formulation was introduced. Meanwhile, according to a study from the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, more than thirty million people were in the ‘shadow labor market’, equating to over 40% of the economically active population.

 

These are just a few examples from a massive body of written and visual representations of the underworld since 1991. Today the lurid boyevik genre is still popular and to be found in many a bookshop. There are even websites such as PrimeCrime, which since 2006 has not only accumulated thousands of pages chronicling the deeds of vory great and small, but even has comment sections where criminals, wannabes and fanboys exchange news and views on their favorite gangsters. Nonetheless, the central message is of confluence, as the gangsters seek to normalize their own status, and society embraces or at least accepts them, no longer the feared outsider but just another facet of life.

 

They may enjoy watching films about gangsters and even listen to Radio Shanson, but there is no evidence that ordinary Russians are happy with the present corrupt and criminalized situation. Admittedly, their main problem is corruption, because that directly and visibly affects their daily lives, while the gangsters have receded into the shadows. Ironically enough, even many within the elite, however much they have enriched themselves under the present order, appear to feel it is time to move on. From a purely anecdotal perspective, I am struck by how often I encounter a sense from the new rich (and especially their pampered but well-travelled offspring) that, to quote one, ‘Russia needs to be a regular country, a European one, and that means an end to the time of stealing.’ If nothing else, ending the ‘time of stealing’ would, to them, mean not a meticulous restitution of their riches to all those from whom they had been stolen, so much as the creation of a rule-of-law state in which their wealth was now both legitimate and protected.

 

Under Putin the real currency is not the ruble, but political power, and mere money and property are at best something held in trust until the day the state or some predator with a higher krysha and sharper teeth comes and takes it from you.

 

When there has been any kind of meaningful progress in cutting organized crime down to size – nowhere has it been wholly eliminated – then it has been through a combination of three basic necessities: effective laws and the presence of judicial and police structures able and willing to uphold them; political elites willing or forced to allow those structures to function; and a mobilized and vigilant public eager and determined to ensure that the work is done.

Russia’s laws and institutions largely meet the necessary criteria on paper but are thoroughly undermined in practice. Despite attempts at reform, any attempt to bring genuine legality to this society faces the serious problems of corruption, a lack of resources for police and courts alike and, in particular, the blatant manipulation of the law by the political elite.

But what elite, unprompted, reforms a system that grants it the opportunity to steal with impunity? There is little evidence of any serious will on the part of the Russian elite to do anything, especially as power becomes more and more tightly held by Vladimir Putin and a shrinking circle of like-minded (and generally highly acquisitive) allies.

Nor is there much that the outside world can do, but ‘not much’ is not nothing. A key step would be to attack criminals’ assets abroad more vigorously and, perhaps most importantly, address a common temptation to turn a blind eye to money that is slightly grubby in the name of business. Even before the 1998 crisis sent financial institutions scrambling for business, it was an open secret that many would gladly accept dirty money so long as it had been ‘prewashed’ enough that the bankers could claim to be ‘shocked, shocked’ if it was proven to be dirty.

 

Posted in Corruption & Finance, Crime, Gangs, Corrupt police, Private security, War Books | Tagged , , , , , , | Comments Off on The Vory. Russia’s Super Mafia