Only you can prevent wildfires: write FEMA by June 17, 2013

If you’d like to prevent another wildfire, I encourage you to write FEMA or go to the meeting tomorrow, May 18th at 10 am – see http://claremontcanyon.org/ for details on where to send a letter and meeting place.

A great deal is known about wildfires in the East Bay hills.

After every major fire (there have been 15 major wildfires between 1923 and 1992), a blue ribbon commission was appointed and produced excellent reports on what needed to be done.  We know from the 1982 and 1995 commission reports that the eucalyptus, pine, and acacia have to be removed, how to go about it, and which native species to replace them with.  Native oaks, redwoods, and other trees are far less fire-prone, and when they do burn, create far less catastrophic fires.

There has also been an extremely knowledgeable and hardworking wildfire prevention district since 1991.

The Claremont Canyon conservancy has an excellent website about the history of wildfire in our area and what needs to be done.  They’ve teamed up with professors and wildfire experts at the University of California, Berkeley, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, and other institutions to try to prevent wildfires in the future:

Many of the people in my neighborhood now moved in after the 1991 wildfire that burned down 3500 homes.  Those of us who lived through it never want to see it happen again.  You will spend up to five years fighting the insurance company to get paid (see my book review of “Delay, Deny, Defend” for details at http://www.amazon.com/review/R2QU1EU62P2QXU), and at least two years to get your house rebuilt and furnished.

Back in 1991, dozens of us had gone through CORE training in the Rockridge Terrace area, many of us all the way through CORE IV, and so we knew we needed to get out.  Perhaps that’s one of the reasons no one died in our neighborhood.  But we lost 97 of 100 homes on Contra Costa Road, and many more homes on Buena Vista and Golden Gate avenue as well.

History of wildfires in East Bay Hills

Between 1923 and 1992, 15 major wildfires occurred in the East Bay Hills of Alameda and Contra Costa Counties, California.

• These 15 fires burned about 9,000 acres, destroyed more than 3,500 homes, and killed 26 people.

• Among these fires, the 1923 Berkeley Fire destroyed over 600 homes in an hour.

• The 1970 fire consumed over 200 acres and burned 37 homes.

• The 1991 Tunnel Fire killed 25 people, destroyed approximately 3,400 homes and did an estimated $1.5 billion in damages.

Eucalyptus

Eucalyptus trees are the largest problem.  They have oily bark and leaves which can aerodynamically spread fires one to six miles ahead of the main flame front, and as far as 18 miles ahead (Cheney 1981, McCaw, L. et al. 1992, Stretton 1939).

That’s why our homes burned down in 1991 – eucalyptus can easily jump 8 lanes of freeway plus Lake Temescal.

Eucalyptus are the most likely kind of tree to cause the worst possible kind of fire — a crown fire, which travels three to eight times as fast as a ground fire.  And crown fires cause the worst spotting, exploding with firebrands, as happened in the Oakland hills fire of 1991 where the “wide dispersal of firebrands contributed significantly to the rapid and extensive spread of the fire” (Bradley 1995).

Eucalyptus are especially prone to crown fire because their bark and leaves are imbued with flammable oils that ignite easily, and the shape of the tree — an open crown — creates updrafts which lift the fiery bark and ground litter up into the hanging branches (USDA Forest Service).

Another reason to get rid of eucalyptus is that they evolved to not only cope well with fire, but are so good at it, that after a fire, their range spreads.  They are the most adapted to fire of any tree in the world, that’s why Australia is covered with them.   Many species of trees in Australia can only exist where it’s too wet for wildfires or too cold for eucalyptus to survive.

 

Eucalyptus trees poison the soil with terpenes and phenolic acids that make it hard for other plants to grow.  There’s very little, if any, understory vegetation in eucalyptus stands in California (USDA). So even if you get rid of a eucalyptus tree, one is likely to come back in that spot.

I think a good monster movie could be made with eucalyptus as the villain.  They are awfully hard to kill.  They have four different ways of reproducing if burned or cut down: heat-resistant seed capsules, sprouting from the stump, sprouting from the lignotuber, or sprouting from the roots (USDA).

I’ve been a naturalist for 50 years, and volunteer to take inner city children on hikes at Audubon Canyon Ranch.  I’ve hiked thousands of miles of Bay Area trails.  One thing I’ve always noticed is how silent, dead, eucalyptus groves are.  Nothing moves and nothing lives there. This is because eucalyptus is not native, so very few of the local species can use them for food or homes (1995 Fire Hazard Mitigation Program).

Worse yet, eucalyptus can harm native species. Many birds are coated with a tarry pitch when they seek nectar.  In Australia, birds have evolved nostrils far away from their bills to cope, here bird nostrils can get clogged, killing the bird from suffocation, according to Rich Stallcup of PRBO conservation science.

In closing, I’d like to remind you that in Australia, eucalyptus has always been, and always will be a scourge.   In 1976, one in ten rural Australians was part of a volunteer bush fire brigade.

Let’s not let eucalyptus take over the ecology of California, or we’ll have fires like the Ash Wednesday fire in South Australia, 1983, that burned 1350 square miles and killed 71 people.  Fire tornadoes rose 410 yards into the air. Survivors described the sound of the fire burning as a “deafening metallic roar that was terrifying and disorienting”.  The smoke was so thick and the fire so fast, escape routes couldn’t be seen and were cut off.  Water pumps stopped working as the fire severed electric lines.

References

1982 “Report of the blue ribbon urban interface fire prevention committee”.

1995 “Fire Hazard Mitigation Program & Fuel Management Plan for the East Bay Hills”

Bradley, Gordon A. 1995. “Urban Forest Landscapes: Integrating Multidisciplinary Perspectives.”  University of Washington Press.

Cheney, N.P. 1981. Fire Behaviour. In “Fire and the Australian Biota.” Editors A.M. Gill, R.H. Groves & I.R. Noble. Australian Academy of Science. Canberra pp 151-176

FEMA project Fact Sheet. april 1, 2013. East Bay Hills Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction Environmental Impact Statement (EIS)

National Park Service.  september 2006. “Managing Eucalyptus”

U.S. Department of the Interior. Golden Gate National Recreation Area

McCaw, L. et al. 1992. Extreme wildfire behaviour in 3-year-old fuels in a Western Australian mixed Eucalyptus forest. Western Australian Dept. of Conservation and Land Management, Manjimup)

O’Brien, Bill.  2005. Ubiquitous Eucalyptus. “How an Aussie Got Naturalized”. Bay Nature

Pyne, Stephen J. 1991. “Burning Bush. A Fire History of Australia”. Henry Holt.

Stretton, Leonard. E. B.   Royal Commissioner Judge describing the 1939 “Black Friday” fire that consumed millions of acres in Australia

“The speed of the 1939 fire as apalling…lighting forests 6 or 7 miles in advance of the main fires…balls of crackling fire sped at a great pace in advance of the fires, consuming with a roaring, explosive noice, all that they touched.  Great pieces of burning bark were carried by the wind to set in raging flame regions not yet reached by the fires.

USDA FOREST SERVICE. Fire effects information page

http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/plants/tree/eucglo/all.html#BOTANICAL%20AND%20ECOLOGICAL%20CHARACTERISTICS

 

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Why we might not go extinct

The case against extinction

I think the end of fossil fuels and all that they enable us to do, microchips, and global supply chains has a 95-98% chance of saving us from extinction because:

1. Carbon dioxide and methane will start to go down due to peak oil and coal (Hart, Heinberg, Höök, Nel, Patzek) and natural gas Shale Oil and Gas Will Not Save Us.

2. Our ability to do any kind of harm to any resource will diminish drastically once oil and oil equivalent fuels diminish because so many large vehicles and any other equipment with combustion engines won’t operate any more:

  • farm tractors will no longer compress and erode topsoil (or grow enough food to feed 7+ billion people)
  • earth moving machines will no longer harvest coal and other minerals and metals
  • our roads, bridges, airports, and docks will last less than 100 years because we didn’t build anything with cement to last over a century (unlike Roman cement, which is still going strong). We won’t have the energy to rebuild or maintain most of our infrastructure
  • It will be much harder to chop down (rain)forests with roads crumbling and large trucks gone
  • There won’t be ships that can go to the ends of the earth to harvest the last schools of fish. Marine reserves have often restored fish populations faster than anyone expected.
  • due to lack of fuel, future world wars or world war on the scale of WWI & II will not be possible.  Wars will be far more local, more like pre-WWI.
  • Although biodiversity loss will probably increase initially as anyone with a gun goes out hunting, that’s likely to change because the people who live where hunters can get to on foot or bicycle will defend their territory.   The same goes for fishing and foraging.

3. The book “The Earth Without Us” gives me great hope that the earth will recover rather rapidly.

4. In 2075 when sea levels start to rise, so many people will have already died off from the decline in fossil fuels that there will be plenty of room for coastal dwellers to move to

5. The loss of our ability to make microchips and breakdown in supply chains will be nearly as important as the loss of oil in rapidly changing civilization back to wood-based energy, and also increase the rate and numbers of people dying.

I don’t want to diminish the suffering and tragedy of between 3 and 7 billion people dying, of climate change wreaking harm for thousands of years, and the loss of much of the amazing scientific understanding we have of the world since so much of it is being preserved digitally instead of on a more permanent physical substance (i.e. imprinted on thin metal sheets, etc).

Even though even a small nuclear war would kill over 1 billion people, and a nuclear EMP even more, the ozone would recover after 5 years, many people around the equator will be fine, others will have stockpiled enough food to get by.

All of the 9 planetary boundaries will diminish as human population declines from lack of fossil fuels.  Peak phosphorous will come even sooner without fossil-fuel driven vehicles and equipment to harvest and transport it.

This is too big a topic to list every factor and how it might turn out as you can see from the menu items in Decline and Collapse at energyskeptic.com.  Yes, extinction is a possibility if too many of these happen at once over just a few centuries.

But since both human population and energy resources are likely to decline exponentially rather quickly, we won’t be able to do the harm we are now, to the planet or ourselves, and that has a good chance of saving us from extinction.

 

Alice Friedemann

References

Hart, Phil. 15 Nov 2010. Oil Demand to Decline in the West, according to International Energy Agency.  http://anz.theoildrum.com/node/7114

Heinberg, R., Fridley, D. The end of cheap coal. New forecasts suggest that coal reserves will run out faster than many believe. Nature 468, 367-369 (18 November 2010) doi:10.1038/468367a

Höök, M., Sivertsson, A. & Aleklett, K. “Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios” Natural Resources Research, 2010, Vol. 19, Issue 2: 63-81

Nel and Cooper (2009) Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming, Energy Policy 37: 166-180.

Patzek, T, Croft, G. A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis.  Energy 35 (2010) 3109e3122

Posted in Extinction | 1 Comment

Flow Rate by Kurt Cobb at Resource Insights

Sunday, April 28, 2013

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2013/04/the-only-true-metric-of-energy_28.html

The only true metric of energy abundance: The rate of flow

Okay, I’m going to give you the shortest course ever in energy abundance: Energy abundance depends entirely on the RATE of energy flow. Let me say it again: Energy abundance depends entirely on the RATE of energy flow.

Now, here is what it does NOT depend on: supposed, but often unverified, fossil fuel reserves in the ground; hypothetical, sketchy, guesstimated, undeveloped, undiscovered resources imagined to be in the ground by governments or by energy companies and often deceptively referred to as “reserves”*; claims about future technological breakthroughs; mere public relations puffery about abundance in the face of record high average oil prices.

Why is the rate of flow the key metric? Because in order to function the global economy depends entirely on continuous, high-quality energy inputs. We cannot shut down the world’s electric generating plants for six months or even three months without crashing world society into a state of irretrievable chaos and decline. We cannot shut down the world’s shipping fleet for even a few weeks without doing irreparable harm. Modern global society has become like a shark. It either keeps barreling forward or it dies.

Fossil fuels that are actually proven to be in the ground are by definition not currently being used, whatever we may consider their potential. Fossil fuels that are hypothetical and undiscovered by definition cannot be used. Technology is NOT energy. Technology runs ON energy. Energy first, then applied technology. The ancient Romans designed and built small steam engines and used them to animate children’s toys. But, the Romans lacked the dense energy sources needed to make steam engines practical as a mode of transportation or of power for manufacturing.

Now, why am I making such a fuss about all this? Because this week we have yet another entry in the ongoing energy misinformation derby, this time from the usually sensible Atlantic Monthly magazine. In fairness, the headline on the magazine’s cover which reads “We will never run out of oil” was probably not chosen by the author for it does not really respect the nuances found in the piece which inside has the only slightly less disinformational headline: “What If We Never Run Out of Oil?” The subheading makes the astounding claim that fossil fuels may not be finite making me believe that the editors didn’t actually read their own story.

The editors are, of course, trotting out the tired canard that the opposite and urgent claim that we are running out of oil is made by those skeptical about oil abundance. But, the real claim from skeptics is that the RATE OF FLOW may begin to decline sometime in the not-too-distant future. Oil will be with us for a very long time, just not at these levels of production. If the rate of flow for oil declined by half in the next 20 years, we wouldn’t be running out of oil at all. We’d still be pumping the same about as we were in 1967, a year of exceptional economic vitality. But, we’d feel the crunch because there are twice as many people on the planet now as there were then. And, the per capita consumption of oil has risen considerably since that year.

The Atlantic Monthly article does include some dissenting voices. But Charles Mann, the author of the piece, has missed the two most crucial points about the future supply of oil and natural gas. First, new unconventional sources of these hydrocarbons are more difficult and costly to extract than conventional ones. In addition, the unconventional well flows exhibit very steep declines in their rate of production–so steep that in the tight oil fields of Texas and North Dakota drillers must replace about 40 percent of their production PER YEAR just to maintain current output. The decline rates for shale gas are no more encouraging: 79 to 95 percent after three years according to a comprehensive survey of 65,000 oil and gas wells in 31 shale plays. Shale natural gas and tight oil drillers face a task similar to climbing up a down escalator. Each must replace enormous fractions of their current production frequently just to keep production flat. A path to persistently rising global production of oil and gas far into the future cannot be built on production from such fields.

Already, the shale gas production boom in the United States has ceased as natural gas production has been flat since December 2011 despite the more than doubling of natural gas prices from their lows in April 2012. World oil production has been on a bumpy plateau since 2005. Mann seems unaware of stalled natural gas production in the United States, and he failed to take into account the total picture of oil flows. Some 60 percent of current production flows come from aging giant fields representing just 1 percent of the world’s fields, and as a group they are in decline. Production from all existing oil fields worldwide is believed to be declining at a rate of about 4 to 5 percent. We are trying to make up that decline from tight oil fields that decline around 10 times faster, and we are only just succeeding for the moment. Failing to understand the centrality of flow rates is such an elementary error that it is hard to believe that the Atlantic Monthly missed it.

But there’s more. The affordability of hydrocarbons will also matter greatly. Gail Tverberg has outlined in detail on her blog Our Finite World how the high price of hydrocarbons tends to suppress economic activity which then leads to a downturn that then causes oil and natural gas prices to fall due to falling demand. That fall in prices makes unconventional sources of oil and natural gas uncompetitive leading to a slowdown in their production even as production from conventional sources continues to decline. As prices rise with economic recovery, we begin the same cycle again. This suggests that there is a limit to how much of the modern economy’s financial and physical resources can be devoted to extracting energy without causing an economic contraction–something that the shark-like nature of the modern financial economy cannot withstand without the kind of severe repercussions we saw in 2008.

The Atlantic article makes one more misleading claim even as the author admits to a bias formed in 1998 while working on a previous energy article. He didn’t correctly foresee the promise of experiments with hydraulic fracturing that led to the shale gas and tight oil production boom. Like a racetrack junky who bet on the wrong horse in the first race, the writer doesn’t want to miss the next winner. But, he makes a faulty analogy between the new form of hydraulic fracturing and current pilot projects designed to harvest natural gas from methane hydrates, essentially natural gas trapped in ice crystals, most of which lie in deep ocean sediments. A successful test that produced natural gas from this source off the Japanese coast in 3,000 feet of water and 1,000 feet below the seabed has the energy optimists atwitter with talk of virtually unlimited natural gas supplies.

But, attempts to extract natural gas from methane hydrates should more properly be compared to the search for methods to extract oil profitably from the vast oil shale deposits in the western United States. After more than a century of trying, no one has been able to produce oil commercially from these deposits. It may happen someday at much higher prices and in very limited quantities given all the constraints. Not the least of those constraints is the water necessary to process what is not actually oil, but kerogen, a waxy, long-chain hydrocarbon that requires considerable energy and water to convert into what we call oil. Even the ever optimistic U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that by 2030 these deposits may produce only 140,000 barrels a day of what will essentially be synthetic oil. That compares to current world consumption of around 75 million barrels per day of crude oil plus lease condensate (which is the definition of oil).

As for methane hydrates, researchers have tried for decades to figure out how to extract the methane profitably and without causing the occasional explosion–a hazard encountered by companies drilling for conventional deepwater gas when they hit hydrates on their way to sought-after conventional reservoirs. As with oil shale, there are known methods now for extracting these gaseous hydrocarbons from methane hydrates. The remaining questions for both oil shale and methane hydrates are similar: How high must prices go before extraction of either will be profitable? So far, the answer is higher than what people will pay and therefore what the economy can stand. And, at what rate will we be able to get these resources out? Rate is the crucial question.

When it comes to oil shale, we know where it is. It’s just that it costs so much to extract and process that we are not producing it commercially. When it comes to methane hydrates, however, we do not even know if the deposits are numerous enough or concentrated enough to make substantial commercial production possible. To pin our hopes on this has the makings of dangerously foolish energy policy.

I am not attempting here to address the climate implications of natural gas production from methane hydrates and shale, nor those of oil extraction from tight oil deposits or oil shale (kerogen). Needless to say, if the optimists somehow turned out to be right, burning all these hydrocarbons would lead to almost certain climate catastrophe. But, we are in bad enough shape as it is without compounding inaction on climate change with a misdiagnosis of oil and natural gas supplies.

Despite our best efforts, we have only just been able to keep oil supplies from declining in the last seven years. Despite (possibly exaggerated) claims that we have more oil reserves than ever, we need to remember that the rate of flow, that is, our daily consumption, has grown by a factor of eight from 1950 to the present. And, half of all the oil ever consumed has been consumed since 1985. The available reserves may be large, but they are being consumed at such a colossal rate that supposedly record reserves have been unable to lift that rate appreciably above a plateau that started in 2005. The result has been record average prices for oil worldwide for two years running. Rate is and always will be primary in evaluating our energy wealth.

While natural gas supply worldwide is likely to grow for a time, the cost of this new supply–especially if most of it comes from shale deposits and possibly methane hydrates–will be far higher than the optimists would wish. And, that has the kind of implications cited above for affordability and thus demand.

We seem to have hit a double wall that is both financial and physical when it comes to the flow of oil and natural gas. If we remain ignorant of the first principle of energy abundance, that flow rates are the key metric, then we will be doomed to bad energy policy and other serious consequences that flow from that ignorance.

*Reserves are properly defined as resources that can be extracted from known fields using existing technology and sold profitably at today’s prices. Reserves are thus a tiny fraction of “resources,” the estimates for which are actually vague, sketchy guesses about the amount of a substance present in the Earth’s crust in a given area.

Kurt Cobb is an author, speaker, and columnist focusing on energy and the environment. He is a regular contributor to the Energy Voices section of The Christian Science Monitor and author of the peak-oil-themed novel Prelude. In addition, he writes columns for the Paris-based science news site Scitizen, and his work has been featured on Energy Bulletin, The Oil Drum, OilPrice.com, Econ Matters, Peak Oil Review, 321energy, Common Dreams, Le Monde Diplomatique and many other sites. He maintains a blog called Resource Insights and can be contacted at kurtcobb2001@yahoo.com.

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Oil can never be replaced with alternative energy

People who think that wind, solar, biofuels, hydrogen, batteries, and so on will save us simply don’t understand how much energy is contained in oil and other fossil fuels, how much we rely on it, how it is at the root of every aspect of our lives.

There are a lot of videos and movies about this, here’s some recent ones from national geographic.

Run out of oil

Aftermath: world without oil

Oil in your life today:

MMFTFF = Materials Mined, Fabricated, Transported with Fossil Fuels

MFO – Made from oil or natural gas — fossil fuels are a substance in over half a million products

EGNGC = Electricity Generated from Natural Gas or Coal, other power plants such as dams (hydroelectric) and Windmills were MMFTFF

Alarm went off: alarm was MMFTFF, likely powered by electricity generated from natural gas or coal (EGNGC). LThe plast

Brush teeth: toothbrush was MMFTFF and is made from fossil fuels (plastic has oil in int).  Medicines: MMFTFf and made from oil.

Shower – water pumped with EGNGC electricity, all materials MMFTFF

Your clothes?  All MMFTFF and all synthetics are made from oil.

Breakfast: eggs fried with natural gas, pan, plate, fork, knife, spoon MMFTFF.  All of the food was planted by a tractor that burned oil, harvested with oil, driven to the store with oil.

Drive or commute to work?  Oil.

 

Posted in Oil | Leave a comment

Natural Gas and Trucking

What we are facing is a liquids fuels crisis, since 97% of transportation depends on oil (especially to plant, harvest, and distribute food, long-haul trucking, trains, etc).  To the extent that natural gas can fill in for oil, that will soften the impact of going over the energy cliff a little.

It’s likely we may be able to extend the life of natural gas in America by up to 20-25 years, but not 100 years like all the hype says (see post Shale Oil and Gas will not save us).

This buys us time if enough LNG stations, heavy trucks, and infrastructure are built within the next few years

But — to build a new fleet of trucks requires a lot of oil, costs nearly twice as much as conventional trucks, and by the time you’ve built such a fleet, LNG stations, etc., the natural gas boom will be over.

One of the reasons natural gas is attractive now is that it’s cheap, but that’s not likely to last, and that could slow down the conversion of local fleets to burning compressed NG and long-haul trucks from burning Liquified Natural Gas (LNG).

Some stats from the New York Times Cardwell article:

  • 8 million mid-to-heavy trucks consume 3 million barrels of oil a day, 15% of total consumption or 75% of what we import from OPEC nations.
  • 3 million 18-wheelers — the long distance haulers — consume two-thirds of all diesel fuel
  • 157,000 gasoline stations
  •         53 Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) stations in the USA now, two-thirds of them in California.

Large trucks need to run on LNG, local fleets can get by on compressed natural gas.  Many transit buses, refuse haulers, delivery trucks, and garbage trucks can, and are, running on compressed natural gas.

References

Diane Cardwell. 22 Apr 2013. Trucking Industry Is Set to Expand Its Use of Natural Gas. New York Times.

Posted in Good News | Leave a comment

Peak Oil Acknowledged by Middle Eastern countries — they’re scared

Very interesting reflections on a peak oil conference in the Middle east of the countries that export oil.  I think it must mean we’re past peak, don’t believe “the near future”.

Peak Oil as seen through the eyes of Arab oil producers by Robert Hirsch, originally published by Fabius Maximus  | Apr 12, 2013

Reflections by the author of the “Hirsch Report” on the Conference “Peak Oil: Challenges and Opportunities for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries.”

I was fortunate to be among the few westerners invited to attend and speak at this first-of-its kind “peak oil” (PO) conference in a Middle East. The fact that a major Middle East oil exporter would hold such a conference on what has long been a verboten subject was quite remarkable and a dramatic change from decades of PO denial. The two and a half day meeting was well attended by people from the GCC as well as other regional countries.

The going-in assumption was that “peak oil” will occur in the near future. The timing of the impending onset of world oil decline was not an issue at the conference, rather the main focus was what the GCC countries should do soon to ensure a prosperous, long-term future. To many of us who have long suffered the vociferous denial of PO by Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and OPEC countries, this conference represented a major change. In the words of Kjell Aleklett (Professor of Physics at Uppsala University, Sweden), who summarized highlights of the conference, the meeting was “an historic event.”

While many PO aficionados have been focused on the impacts and the mitigation of “peak oil” in the importing countries, most attendees at this conference were concerned with the impact that finite oil and gas reserves will have on the long-term future of their own exporting countries. They see the depletion of their large-but-limited reserves as affording their countries a period of time in which they either develop their countries into sustainable entities able to continue into the long term future or they lapse back into the poor, nomadic circumstances that existed prior to the discovery of oil/gas. Accordingly, much of the conference focus was on how the GCC countries might use their current and near-term largesse to build sustainable economic and government futures.

A flavor of the conference can be gotten from the following loosely translated, random quotations:

About the Conference:

  • This is a groundbreaking conference.
  • The organizers were brave to organize this conference.

Peak Oil:

  • Peak oil provides an incentive to consider important national and regional issues. The GCC is currently working new problems with old solutions.
  • Oil revenue represents about 93% of the Saudi budget. Everything is now imported — foreign expertise and most labor. Saudi can’t continue on the current track, because it would lead to a “bad future.” We need radical change.
  • After peak oil, will there be great cities, or will Middle East cities end up like the gold mining ghost towns of the old U.S. west?
  • So far we have wasted our opportunity.
  • Shale oil in the U.S. is so much foolishness and does not invalidate peak oil. We definitely must worry about peak oil.

The Gulf States:

  • Political reforms have failed to properly address our lack of democracy and accountability.
  • When people are excluded from politics, they get unruly.
  • Citizens in the Middle East prefer public sector jobs because they pay better than private sector jobs.
  • Foreigners are the majority of our populations, typically 80%.
  • Schools are teaching children “old stuff.” Schools are a disaster.
  • The current culture is one of waste.
  • There are job vacancies in Saudi but local people are not prepared to fill them. Saudi’s go abroad to get advanced degrees but don’t qualify for Saudi jobs, so Saudi must import foreign labor. Aramco did a good job of training Saudi nationals.
  • The GCC must educate women and give them greater rights and equality.
  • In many countries absolute rulers get the incomes and revenues and not much is left for the people. A selfish dictator does not develop his country.
  • The Arab legal system is in bad shape and needs attention.
  • People read religious literature when they should be reading technical literature.
  • The region has wealthy, wealthy persons and poor, poor people.
  • Rulers must understand that the people must be part of the future.
  • Future generations must have rights.

About the world and peak oil:

  • Globalization is being broadly viewed more negatively now. When peak oil comes, it will be extremely difficult to maintain.
  • High oil prices will impact the world even before the onset of peak oil.
  • Peak oil is the most important question in this part of the world.

Robert Hirsch ran the US Fusion Program during the 1970′s, and went from there to become one of America’s top energy experts. Here is a brief biography. He was the lead author of one of the major papers about 21st century energy: “Peaking of World Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management“, commissioned by the Dept of Energy, published in 2005. Co-authors are the economists Roger Bezdek and Robert Wendling. They also wrote The Impending World Energy Mess: What It Is and What It Means to You (2010).

See Wikipedia for a list of his positions and publications. He has over 50 publications, plus 14 patents — including Farnsworth–Hirsch fusor (see Wikipedia).

Posted in How Much Left | Leave a comment

Over 250 Cognitive biases, fallacies, errors, and more

We are not built to reason, but to rationalize.  We’re easily fooled by ads, rhetoric, and actually, by just about everything it seems when you look at the lists of biases, fallacies, errors, bad memories, and propaganda below.

But take heart, the scientific method has enlightened us and pulled us out of the fear and darkness of superstition — well, the 5% of you who are scientifically literate that is.

Even if you don’t understand why the scientific method is our only successful way of finding reality — of knowing what’s true from what’s false — it’s still useful to know what biases we have to defend ourselves from snake oil salesmen and Orwellian propaganda.

I pulled this grand list from Wikipedia. It may not be complete or up-to-date.

Cognitive Biases: Decision-making, belief & behavioral biases

  • Ambiguity effect – the tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem “unknown.”
  • Anchoring – the tendency to rely too heavily, or “anchor,” on a past reference or on one trait or piece of information when making decisions (also called “insufficient adjustment”).
  • Attentional Bias – the tendency of emotionally dominant stimuli in one’s environment to preferentially draw and hold attention and to neglect relevant data when making judgments of a correlation or association.
  • Availability heuristic – estimating what is more likely by what is more available in memory, which is biased toward vivid, unusual, or emotionally charged examples.
  • Availability cascade – a self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse (or “repeat something long enough and it will become true”).
  • Backfire effect – Evidence disconfirming our beliefs only strengthens them.
  • Bandwagon effect – the tendency to do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior.
  • Base rate neglect or Base rate fallacy – the tendency to base judgments on specifics, ignoring general statistical information.
  • Belief bias – an effect where someone’s evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion.
  • Bias blind spot – the tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people.
  • Choice-supportive bias – the tendency to remember one’s choices as better than they actually were.
  • Clustering illusion – the tendency to see patterns where actually none exist. Also referred to as “patternicity” by author Michael Shermer.
  • Confirmation bias – the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one’s preconceptions.
  • Congruence bias – the tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, in contrast to tests of possible alternative hypotheses.
  • Conjunction fallacy – the tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than general ones.
  • Conservatism or Regressive Bias – tendency to underestimate high values and high likelihoods/probabilities/frequencies and overestimate low ones. Based on the observed evidence, estimates are not extreme enough
  • Contrast effect – the enhancement or diminishing of a weight or other measurement when compared with a recently observed contrasting object.
  • Denomination effect – the tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts (e.g. coins) rather than large amounts (e.g. bills).[14]
  • Distinction bias – the tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.
  • Empathy gap – the tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.
  • Endowment effect – the fact that people often demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it.
  • Exaggerated expectation – based on the estimates, real-world evidence turns out to be less extreme than our expectations (conditionally inverse of the conservatism bias).
  • Experimenter’s or Expectation bias – the tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.
  • Focusing effect – the tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome.
  • Forward Bias – the tendency to create models based on past data which are validated only against that past data.
  • Framing effect – drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented.
  • Frequency illusion – the illusion in which a word, a name or other thing that has recently come to one’s attention suddenly appears “everywhere” with improbable frequency (see also recency illusion). AKA “The Baader-Meinhof phenomenon”.
  • Gambler’s fallacy – the tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. Results from an erroneous conceptualization of the Law of large numbers. For example, “I’ve flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads.”
  • Hard-easy effect – Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough
  • Hindsight bias – sometimes called the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable at the time those events happened.
  • Hostile media effect – the tendency to see a media report as being biased due to one’s own strong partisan views.
  • Hyperbolic discounting – the tendency for people to have a stronger preference for more immediate payoffs relative to later payoffs, where the tendency increases the closer to the present both payoffs are.
  • Illusion of control – the tendency to overestimate one’s degree of influence over other external events.
  • Illusory correlation – inaccurately perceiving a relationship between two unrelated events.
  • Impact bias – the tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states.
  • Information bias – tendency to seek information even when it cannot affect action.
  • Irrational escalation – the phenomenon where people justify increased investment in a decision, based on the cumulative prior investment, despite new evidence suggesting that the decision was probably wrong.
  • Just-world hypothesis – the tendency for people to want to believe that the world is fundamentally just, causing them to rationalize an otherwise inexplicable injustice as deserved by the victim(s).
  • Loss aversion – “the disutility of giving up an object is greater than the utility associated with acquiring it”. (see also Sunk cost effects and Endowment effect).
  • Mere exposure effect – the tendency to express undue liking for things merely because of familiarity with them.
  • Money illusion – the tendency to concentrate on the nominal (face value) of money rather than its value in terms of purchasing power.
  • Moral credential effect – the tendency of a track record of non-prejudice to increase subsequent prejudice.
  • Negativity bias – the tendency to pay more attention and give more weight to negative than positive experiences or other kinds of information.
  • Neglect of probability – the tendency to completely disregard probability when making a decision under uncertainty.
  • Normalcy bias – the refusal to plan for, or react to, a disaster which has never happened before.
  • Observer-expectancy effect – when a researcher expects a given result and therefore unconsciously manipulates an experiment or misinterprets data in order to find it (see also subject-expectancy effect).
  • Omission bias – the tendency to judge harmful actions as worse, or less moral, than equally harmful omissions (inactions).
  • Optimism bias – the tendency to be over-optimistic, overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, optimism bias, valence effect, positive outcome bias).
  • Ostrich effect – ignoring an obvious (negative) situation.
  • Outcome bias – the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made.
  • Overconfidence effect – excessive confidence in one’s own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as “99% certain” turn out to be wrong 40% of the time.
  • Pareidolia – a vague and random stimulus (often an image or sound) is perceived as significant, e.g., seeing images of animals or faces in clouds, the man in the moon, and hearing hidden messages on records played in reverse.
  • Pessimism bias – the tendency for some people, especially those suffering from depression, to overestimate the likelihood of negative things happening to them.
  • Placement bias – tendency to believe ourselves to be better than others at tasks at which we rate ourselves above average (also Illusory superiority or Better-than-average effect) and tendency to believe ourselves to be worse than others at tasks at which we rate ourselves below average (also Worse-than-average effect
  • Planning fallacy – the tendency to underestimate task-completion times.
  • Post-purchase rationalization – the tendency to persuade oneself through rational argument that a purchase was a good value.
  • Primacy effect – the greater ease of recall of initial items in a sequence compared to items in the middle of the sequence.
  • Pro-innovation bias – the tendency to reflect a personal bias towards an invention/innovation, while often failing to identify limitations and weaknesses or address the possibility of failure.
  • Pseudocertainty effect – the tendency to make risk-averse choices if the expected outcome is positive, but make risk-seeking choices to avoid negative outcomes.
  • Reactance – the urge to do the opposite of what someone wants you to do out of a need to resist a perceived attempt to constrain your freedom of choice.
  • Recency bias – a cognitive bias that results from disproportionate salience of recent stimuli or observations — the tendency to weigh recent events more than earlier events (see also peak-end rule).
  • Recency illusion – the illusion that a phenomenon, typically a word or language usage, that one has just begun to notice is a recent innovation (see also frequency illusion).
  • Regressive Bayesian likelihood – estimates of conditional probabilities are conservative and not extreme enough
  • Restraint bias – the tendency to overestimate one’s ability to show restraint in the face of temptation.
  • Selective perception – the tendency for expectations to affect perception.
  • Semmelweis reflex – the tendency to reject new evidence that contradicts a paradigm.[46]
  • Social comparison bias – the tendency, when making hiring decisions, to favour potential candidates who don’t compete with one’s own particular strengths.
  • Status quo bias – the tendency to like things to stay relatively the same (see also loss aversion, endowment effect, and system justification).
  • Stereotyping – expecting a member of a group to have certain characteristics without having actual information about that individual.
  • Subadditivity effect – the tendency to estimate that the likelihood of an event is less than the sum of its (more than two) mutually exclusive components.
  • Subjective validation – perception that something is true if a subject’s belief demands it to be true. Also assigns perceived connections between coincidences.
  • Unit bias — the tendency to want to finish a given unit of a task or an item. Strong effects on the consumption of food in particular.
  • Well travelled road effect – underestimation of the duration taken to traverse oft-traveled routes and over-estimate the duration taken to traverse less familiar routes.
  • Zero-risk bias – preference for reducing a small risk to zero over a greater reduction in a larger risk.

Social biases

  1. Actor–observer bias – the tendency for explanations of other individuals’ behaviors to overemphasize the influence of their personality and underemphasize the influence of their situation (see also Fundamental attribution error), and for explanations of one’s own behaviors to do the opposite (that is, to overemphasize the influence of our situation and underemphasize the influence of our own personality).
  2. Defensive attribution hypothesis – defensive attributions are made when individuals witness or learn of a mishap happening to another person. In these situations, attributions of responsibility to the victim or harm-doer for the mishap will depend upon the severity of the outcomes of the mishap and the level of personal and situational similarity between the individual and victim. More responsibility will be attributed to the harm-doer as the outcome becomes more severe, and as personal or situational similarity decreases.
  3. Dunning–Kruger effect an effect in which incompetent people fail to realize they are incompetent, because they lack the skill to distinguish between competence and incompetence
  4. Egocentric bias – occurs when people claim more responsibility for themselves for the results of a joint action than an outside observer would.
  5. Forer effect (aka Barnum effect) – the tendency to give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. For example, horoscopes.
  6. False consensus effect – the tendency for people to overestimate the degree to which others agree with them.
  7. Fundamental attribution error – the tendency for people to over-emphasize personality-based explanations for behaviors observed in others while under-emphasizing the role and power of situational influences on the same behavior
  8. Halo effect – the tendency for a person’s positive or negative traits to “spill over” from one area of their personality to another in others’ perceptions of them (see also physical attractiveness stereotype).
  9. Illusion of asymmetric insight – people perceive their knowledge of their peers to surpass their peers’ knowledge of them.
  10. Illusion of transparency – people overestimate others’ ability to know them, and they also overestimate their ability to know others.
  11. Illusory superiority – overestimating one’s desirable qualities, and underestimating undesirable qualities, relative to other people. (Also known as “Lake Wobegon effect,” “better-than-average effect,” or “superiority bias”).
  12. Ingroup bias – the tendency for people to give preferential treatment to others they perceive to be members of their own groups.
  13. Just-world phenomenon – the tendency for people to believe that the world is just and therefore people “get what they deserve.”
  14. Moral luck – the tendency for people to ascribe greater or lesser moral standing based on the outcome of an event rather than the intention
  15. Outgroup homogeneity bias – individuals see members of their own group as being relatively more varied than members of other groups.
  16. Projection bias – the tendency to unconsciously assume that others (or one’s future selves) share one’s current emotional states, thoughts and values.
  17. Self-serving bias – the tendency to claim more responsibility for successes than failures. It may also manifest itself as a tendency for people to evaluate ambiguous information in a way beneficial to their interests (see also group-serving bias).
  18. System justification – the tendency to defend and bolster the status quo. Existing social, economic, and political arrangements tend to be preferred, and alternatives disparaged sometimes even at the expense of individual and collective self-interest. (See also status quo bias.)
  19. Trait ascription bias – the tendency for people to view themselves as relatively variable in terms of personality, behavior, and mood while viewing others as much more predictable.
  20. Ultimate attribution error – similar to the fundamental attribution error, in this error a person is likely to make an internal attribution to an entire group instead of the individuals within the group.

Memory errors

  • Cryptomnesia – a form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination.
  • Egocentric bias – recalling the past in a self-serving manner, e.g., remembering one’s exam grades as being better than they were, or remembering a caught fish as being bigger than it was.
  • False memory – a form of misattribution where imagination is mistaken for a memory.
  • Hindsight bias – filtering memory of past events through present knowledge, so that those events look more predictable than they actually were; also known as the “I-knew-it-all-along effect.”
  • Positivity effect – older adults remember relatively more positive than negative things, compared with younger adults
  • Reminiscence bump – the effect that people tend to recall more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than from other lifetime periods.
  • Rosy retrospection – the tendency to rate past events more positively than they had actually rated them when the event occurred.
  • Self-serving bias – perceiving oneself responsible for desirable outcomes but not responsible for undesirable ones.
  • Suggestibility – a form of misattribution where ideas suggested by a questioner are mistaken for memory.
  • Telescoping effect – the effect that recent events appear to have occurred more remotely and remote events appear to have occurred more recently.
  • Von Restorff effect – the tendency for an item that “stands out like a sore thumb” to be more likely to be remembered than other items.

Common theoretical causes of some cognitive biases

List of memory biases

  1. Choice-supportive bias: remembering chosen options as having been better than rejected options
  1. Change bias: after an investment of effort in producing change, remembering one’s past performance as more difficult than it actually was
  2. Childhood amnesia: the retention of few memories from before the age of four
  3. Consistency bias: incorrectly remembering one’s past attitudes and behaviour as resembling present attitudes and behaviour.
  4. Context effect: that cognition and memory are dependent on context, such that out-of-context memories are more difficult to retrieve than in-context memories (e.g., recall time and accuracy for a work-related memory will be lower at home, and vice versa)
  5. Cross-race effect: the tendency for people of one race to have difficulty identifying members of a race other than their own
  6. Cryptomnesia: a form of misattribution where a memory is mistaken for imagination, because there is no subjective experience of it being a memory.
  7. Egocentric bias: recalling the past in a self-serving manner, e.g., remembering one’s exam grades as being better than they were, or remembering a caught fish as bigger than it really was
  8. Fading affect bias: a bias in which the emotion associated with unpleasant memories fades more quickly than the emotion associated with positive events.
  9. Generation effect (Self-generation effect): that self-generated information is remembered best. For instance, people are better able to recall memories of statements that they have generated than similar statements generated by others.
  10. Google effect: the tendency to forget information that can be easily found online.
  11. Hindsight bias: the inclination to see past events as being predictable; also called the “I-knew-it-all-along” effect.
  12. Humor effect: that humorous items are more easily remembered than non-humorous ones, which might be explained by the distinctiveness of humor, the increased cognitive processing time to understand the humor, or the emotional arousal caused by the humor.
  13. Illusion-of-truth effect: that people are more likely to identify as true statements those they have previously heard (even if they cannot consciously remember having heard them), regardless of the actual validity of the statement. In other words, a person is more likely to believe a familiar statement than an unfamiliar one.
  14. Leveling and Sharpening: memory distortions introduced by the loss of details in a recollection over time, often concurrent with sharpening or selective recollection of certain details that take on exaggerated significance in relation to the details or aspects of the experience lost through leveling. Both biases may be reinforced over time, and by repeated recollection or re-telling of a memory.
  15. Levels-of-processing effect: that different methods of encoding information into memory have different levels of effectiveness
  16. List-length effect: a smaller percentage of items are remembered in a longer list, but as the length of the list increases, the absolute number of items remembered increases as well.
  17. Misinformation effect: misinformation affects people’s reports of their own memory.
  18. Misattribution: when information is retained in memory but the source of the memory is forgotten. One of Schacter’s (1999) Seven Sins of Memory, Misattribution was divided into Source Confusion, Cryptomnesia and False Recall/False Recognition.
  19. Modality effect: that memory recall is higher for the last items of a list when the list items were received via speech than when they were received via writing.
  20. Mood congruent memory bias: the improved recall of information congruent with one’s current mood.
  21. Next-in-line effect: that a person in a group has diminished recall for the words of others who spoke immediately before or after this person.
  22. Osborn effect: that being intoxicated with a mind-altering substance makes it harder to retrieve motor patterns from the Basal Ganglion.
  23. Part-list cueing effect: being shown some items from a list makes it harder to retrieve the other items
  24. Peak-end effect: that people seem to perceive not the sum of an experience but the average of how it was at its peak (e.g. pleasant or unpleasant) and how it ended.
  25. Persistence: the unwanted recurrence of memories of a traumatic event.
  26. Picture superiority effect: that concepts are much more likely to be remembered experientially if they are presented in picture form than if they are presented in word form.
  27. Positivity effect: older adults favor positive over negative information in their memories.
  28. Primacy effect, Recency effect & Serial position effect: that items near the end of a list are the easiest to recall, followed by the items at the beginning of a list; items in the middle are the least likely to be remembered
  29. Processing difficulty effect
  30. Reminiscence bump: the recalling of more personal events from adolescence and early adulthood than personal events from other lifetime periods
  31. Rosy retrospection: the remembering of the past as having been better than it really was.
  32. Self-relevance effect: that memories relating to the self are better recalled than similar information relating to others.
  33. Source Confusion: misattributing the source of a memory, e.g. misremembering that one saw an event personally when actually it was seen on television.
  34. Spacing effect: that information is better recalled if exposure to it is repeated over a longer span of time.
  35. Stereotypical bias: memory distorted towards stereotypes (e.g. racial or gender), e.g. “black-sounding” names being misremembered as names of criminals
  36. Suffix effect: the weakening of the recency effect in the case that an item is appended to the list that the subject is not required to recall
  37. Suggestibility: a form of misattribution where ideas suggested by a questioner are mistaken for memory.
  38. Telescoping effect: tendency to displace recent events backward in time and remote events forward in time, so that recent events appear more remote, and remote events, more recent.
  39. Testing effect: frequent testing of material that has been committed to memory improves memory recall.
  40. Tip of the tongue phenomenon: when a subject is able to recall parts of an item, or related information, but is frustratingly unable to recall the whole item. This is thought an instance of “blocking” where multiple similar memories are being recalled and interfere with each other
  41. Verbatim effect: the “gist” of what someone has said is better remembered than the verbatim wording
  42. Von Restorff effect: that an item that sticks out is more likely to be remembered than other items
  43. Zeigarnik effect: uncompleted or interrupted tasks are remembered better than completed ones.

Formal fallacies is an error in logic that can be seen in the argument’s form without an understanding of the argument’s content. All formal fallacies are specific types of non sequiturs.

  • Appeal to authority – (argumentum ad verecundiam) deductively fallacious; even legitimate authorities speaking on their areas of expertise may affirm a falsehood. However, if not using a deductive argument, a logical fallacy is only asserted when the source is not a legitimate expert on the topic at hand, or their conclusion(s) are in direct opposition to other expert consensus. Appeal to authority does not condone to agreeing to the argument.
  • Appeal to probability – assumes that because something could happen, it is inevitable that it will happen.
  • Argument from fallacy – assumes that if an argument for some conclusion is fallacious, then the conclusion itself is false.
  • Base rate fallacy – making a probability judgment based on conditional probabilities, without taking into account the effect of prior probabilities.
  • Conjunction fallacy – assumption that an outcome simultaneously satisfying multiple conditions is more probable than an outcome satisfying a single one of them.
  • Masked man fallacy (illicit substitution of identicals) – the substitution of identical designators in a true statement can lead to a false one.

Propositional fallacies

Quantificational fallacies

Existential fallacy – an argument has two universal premises and a particular conclusion.

Formal syllogistic fallacies– logical fallacies that occur in syllogisms.

Informal fallacies — arguments that are fallacious for reasons other than structural (formal) flaws and which usually require examination of the argument’s content.

  • Argument from ignorance (appeal to ignorance, argumentum ad ignorantiam) – assuming that a claim is true (or false) because it has not been proven false (true) or cannot be proven false (true).
  • Argument from repetition (argumentum ad nauseam) – signifies that it has been discussed extensively until nobody cares to discuss it anymore
  • Argument from silence (argumentum e silentio) – where the conclusion is based on silence of opponent, failing to give proof, based on “lack of evidence”
  • Argumentum verbosium – See Proof by verbosity, below.
  • Begging the question (petitio principii) – where the conclusion of an argument is implicitly or explicitly assumed in one of the premises
  • (shifting the) Burden of proof (see – onus probandi) – I need not prove my claim, you must prove it is false
  • Circular cause and consequence – where the consequence of the phenomenon is claimed to be its root cause
  • Continuum fallacy (fallacy of the beard, line-drawing fallacy, sorites fallacy, fallacy of the heap, bald man fallacy) – improperly rejecting a claim for being imprecise.
  • Correlation does not imply causation (cum hoc ergo propter hoc)–a faulty assumption that correlation between 2 variables implies that one causes the other.
  • Correlative-based fallacies
  • Equivocation – the misleading use of a term with more than one meaning (by glossing over which meaning is intended at a particular time)
  • Ecological fallacy – inferences about the nature of specific individuals are based solely upon aggregate statistics collected for the group to which those individuals belong.
  • Etymological fallacy – which reasons that the original or historical meaning of a word or phrase is necessarily similar to its actual present-day meaning.
  • Fallacy of composition – assuming that something true of part of a whole must also be true of the whole
  • Fallacy of division – assuming that something true of a thing must also be true of all or some of its parts
  • False dilemma (false dichotomy, fallacy of bifurcation, black-or-white fallacy) – two alternative statements are held to be the only possible options, when in reality there are more.
  • If-by-whiskey – an argument that supports both sides of an issue by using terms that are selectively emotionally sensitive.
  • Fallacy of many questions (complex question, fallacy of presupposition, loaded question, plurium interrogationum) – someone asks a question that presupposes something that has not been proven or accepted by all the people involved. This fallacy is often used rhetorically, so that the question limits direct replies to those that serve the questioner’s agenda.
  • Ludic fallacy – the belief that the outcomes of a non-regulated random occurrences can be encapsulated by a statistic; a failure to take into account unknown unknowns in determining the probability of an event’s taking place.
  • Fallacy of the single cause (causal oversimplification) – it is assumed that there is one, simple cause of an outcome when in reality it may have been caused by a number of only jointly sufficient causes.
  • False attribution – an advocate appeals to an irrelevant, unqualified, unidentified, biased or fabricated source in support of an argument
    • Fallacy of quoting out of context (contextomy) – refers to the selective excerpting of words from their original context in a way that distorts the source’s intended meaning.
  • Argument to moderation (false compromise, middle ground, fallacy of the mean) – assuming that the compromise between two positions is always correct
  • Gambler’s fallacy – the incorrect belief that separate, independent events can affect the likelihood of another random event.
  • Historian’s fallacy – occurs when one assumes that decision makers of the past viewed events from the same perspective and having the same information as those subsequently analyzing the decision. (Not to be confused with presentism, which is a mode of historical analysis in which present-day ideas, such as moral standards, are projected into the past.)
  • Homunculus fallacy – where a “middle-man” is used for explanation, this usually leads to regressive middle-man. Explanations without actually explaining the real nature of a function or a process. Instead, it explains the concept in terms of the concept itself, without first defining or explaining the original concept.
  • Incomplete comparison – where not enough information is provided to make a complete comparison
  • Inconsistent comparison – where different methods of comparison are used, leaving one with a false impression of the whole comparison
  • Intentional fallacy – addresses the assumption that the meaning intended by the author of a literary work is of primary importance
  • Ignoratio elenchi (irrelevant conclusion, missing the point) – an argument that may in itself be valid, but does not address the issue in question.
  • Kettle logic – using multiple inconsistent arguments to defend a position.
  • Mind projection fallacy – when one considers the way he sees the world as the way the world really is.
  • Moving the goalposts (raising the bar) – argument in which evidence presented in response to a specific claim is dismissed and some other (often greater) evidence is demanded
  • Nirvana fallacy (perfect solution fallacy) – when solutions to problems are rejected because they are not perfect.
  • Onus probandi – from Latin “onus probandi incumbit ei qui dicit, non ei qui negat” the burden of proof is on the person who makes the claim, not on the person who denies (or questions the claim). It is a particular case of the “argumentum ad ignorantiam” fallacy, here the burden is shifted on the person defending against the assertion
  • Petitio principii – see begging the question
  • Post hoc ergo propter hoc (false cause, coincidental correlation, correlation not causation) – X happened then Y happened; therefore X caused Y
  • Proof by verbosity (argumentum verbosium, proof by intimidation) – submission of others to an argument too complex and verbose to reasonably deal with in all its intimate details. (See also Gish Gallop and argument from authority.)
  • Prosecutor’s fallacy – a low probability of false matches does not mean a low probability of some false match being found
  • Psychologist’s fallacy – an observer presupposes the objectivity of his own perspective when analyzing a behavioral event
  • Red herring – a speaker attempts to distract an audience by deviating from the topic at hand by introducing a separate argument which the speaker believes will be easier to speak to.
  • Regression fallacy – ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of the post hoc fallacy.
  • Reification (hypostatization) – a fallacy of ambiguity, when an abstraction (abstract belief or hypothetical construct) is treated as if it were a concrete, real event or physical entity. In other words, it is the error of treating as a “real thing” something which is not a real thing, but merely an idea.
  • Retrospective determinism – the argument that because some event has occurred, its occurrence must have been inevitable beforehand
  • Special pleading – where a proponent of a position attempts to cite something as an exemption to a generally accepted rule or principle without justifying the exemption
  • Straw man – an argument based on misrepresentation of opponent’s position twisting his words, or by means of [false]assumptions
  • Wrong direction – cause and effect are reversed. The cause is said to be the effect and vice versa.

Faulty generalizations reach a conclusion from weak premises. Unlike fallacies of relevance, in fallacies of defective induction, the premises are related to the conclusions yet only weakly buttress the conclusions. A faulty generalization is thus produced.

  • Accident – an exception to a generalization is ignored.
    • No true Scotsman – when a generalization is made true only when a counterexample is ruled out on shaky grounds.
  • Cherry picking (suppressed evidence, incomplete evidence) – act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.
  • False analogy – an argument by analogy in which the analogy is poorly suited.
  • Hasty generalization (fallacy of insufficient statistics, fallacy of insufficient sample, fallacy of the lonely fact, leaping to a conclusion, hasty induction, secundum quid, converse accident) – basing a broad conclusion on a small sample.
  • Misleading vividness – involves describing an occurrence in vivid detail, even if it is an exceptional occurrence, to convince someone that it is a problem.
  • Overwhelming exception – an accurate generalization that comes with qualifications which eliminate so many cases that what remains is much less impressive than the initial statement might have led one to assume.
  • Pathetic fallacy – when an inanimate object is declared to have characteristics of animate objects.
  • Thought-terminating cliché – a commonly used phrase, sometimes passing as folk wisdom, used to quell cognitive dissonance, conceal lack of thought-entertainment, move onto other topics etc. but in any case, end the debate with a cliche—not a point.

Red herring fallacies  — argument given in response to another argument, which is irrelevant and draws attention away from subject of argument. See also irrelevant conclusion.

  • Ad hominem – attacking the arguer instead of the argument.
    • Poisoning the well – a type of ad hominem where adverse information about a target is presented with the intention of discrediting everything that the target person says
    • Abusive fallacy – a subtype of “ad hominem” when it turns into name-calling rather than arguing about the originally proposed argument.
  • Argumentum ad baculum (appeal to the stick, appeal to force, appeal to threat) – an argument made through coercion or threats of force to support position
  • Argumentum ad populum (appeal to belief, appeal to the majority, appeal to the people) – where a proposition is claimed to be true or good solely because many people believe it to be so
  • Appeal to equality – where an assertion is deemed true or false based on an assumed pretense of equality.
  • Association fallacy (guilt by association) – arguing that because two things share a property they are the same
  • Appeal to authority – where an assertion is deemed true because of the position or authority of the person asserting it.
  • Appeal to consequences (argumentum ad consequentiam) – the conclusion is supported by a premise that asserts positive or negative consequences from some course of action in an attempt to distract from the initial discussion
  • Appeal to emotion – where an argument is made due to the manipulation of emotions, rather than the use of valid reasoning
    • Appeal to fear – a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument is made by increasing fear and prejudice towards the opposing side
    • Appeal to flattery – a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument is made due to the use of flattery to gather support.
    • Appeal to pity (argumentum ad misericordiam) – an argument attempts to induce pity to sway opponents
    • Appeal to ridicule – an argument is made by presenting the opponent’s argument in a way that makes it appear ridiculous
    • Appeal to spite – a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument is made through exploiting people’s bitterness or spite towards an opposing party
    • Wishful thinking – a specific type of appeal to emotion where a decision is made according to what might be pleasing to imagine, rather than according to evidence or reason.
  • Appeal to motive – where a premise is dismissed by calling into question the motives of its proposer
  • Appeal to novelty (argumentum ad novitam) – where a proposal is claimed to be superior or better solely because it is new or modern.
  • Appeal to poverty (argumentum ad Lazarum) – supporting a conclusion because the arguer is poor (or refuting because the arguer is wealthy).
  • Appeal to tradition (argumentum ad antiquitam) – a conclusion supported solely because it has long been held to be true.
  • Appeal to wealth (argumentum ad crumenam) – supporting a conclusion because the arguer is wealthy (or refuting because the arguer is poor). (Sometimes taken together with the appeal to poverty as a general appeal to the arguer’s financial situation.)
  • Argument from silence (argumentum ex silentio) – a conclusion based on silence or lack of contrary evidence
  • Chronological snobbery – where a thesis is deemed incorrect because it was commonly held when something else, clearly false, was also commonly held
  • Genetic fallacy – where a conclusion is suggested based solely on something or someone’s origin rather than its current meaning or context.
  • Judgmental language – insulting or pejorative language to influence the recipient’s judgment
  • Naturalistic fallacy (is–ought fallacy, naturalistic fallacy) – claims about what ought to be on the basis of statements about what is.
  • Reductio ad Hitlerum (playing the Nazi card) – comparing an opponent or their argument to Hitler or Nazism in an attempt to associate a position with one that is universally reviled (See also – Godwin’s law)
  • Straw man – an argument based on misrepresentation of an opponent’s position
  • Texas sharpshooter fallacy – improperly asserting a cause to explain a cluster of data
  • Tu quoque (“you too”, appeal to hypocrisy) – the argument states that a certain position is false or wrong and/or should be disregarded because its proponent fails to act consistently in accordance with that position[
  • Two wrongs make a right – occurs when it is assumed that if one wrong is committed, another wrong will cancel it out.

Conditional or questionable fallacies

  1. Black swan blindness – the argument that ignores low probability, high impact events, thus down playing the role of chance and under representing known risks
  2. Broken window fallacy – an argument which disregards lost opportunity costs (typically non-obvious, difficult to determine or otherwise hidden) associated with destroying property of others, or other ways of externalizing costs onto others. For example, an argument that states breaking a window generates income for a window fitter, but disregards the fact that the money spent on the new window cannot now be spent on new shoes.
  3. Definist fallacy – involves the confusion between two notions by defining one in terms of the other.
  4. Naturalistic fallacy – attempts to prove a claim about ethics by appealing to a definition of the term “good” in terms of either one or more claims about natural properties (sometimes also taken to mean the appeal to nature)
  5. Slippery slope (thin edge of the wedge, camel’s nose) – asserting that a relatively small first step inevitably leads to a chain of related events culminating in some significant impact

Public relations methods and approaches

Airborne leaflet propaganda        Astroturfing / Astroturf PR: fake grassroots       Atrocity story   Bandwagon effect    Big lie    Black propaganda    Buzzword    Card stacking    Code word    Communist propaganda     Corporate image  Corporate propaganda   Cult of personality     Demonization    Doublespeak  Disinformation: providing false information   Dog-whistle politics       Enterperience: fusing entertainment and experience together          Euphemisms, to advance a cause or position (see also Political correctness)      Factoid   Fedspeak   Framing   Front organization    Glittering generality     Indoctrination       Information warfare: the practice of disseminating information in an attempt to advance your agenda relative to a competing viewpoint          Junk science           Lesser of two evils principle           Loaded language         Marketing: commercial and business techniques                Media bias                 Media manipulation: the attempt to influence broadcast media decisions in an attempt to present your view to a mass audience     Misuse of statistics        News management: PR techniques concerned with the news media    News propaganda   Newspeak        Plain folks         Propaganda film    Public service announcement       Revolutionary propaganda          Self propaganda    Social marketing: techniques used in behavioral change, such as health promotion      Sound science    Rebuttal: a type of news management technique    Rhetoric        Slogan       Transfer (propaganda)      Video news release    Weasel Word          White propaganda                     Yellow journalism

 

Cognitive distortion

  • All-or-nothing thinking (splitting) – Conception in absolute terms, like “always”, “every”, “never”, and “there is no alternative”. (See also “false dilemma” or “false dichotomy”.)
  • Overgeneralization – Extrapolating limited experiences and evidence to broad generalizations. (See also faulty generalization and misleading vividness.)
  • Magical thinking – Expectation of certain outcomes based on performance of unrelated acts or utterances. (See also wishful thinking.)
  • Mental filter – Inability to view positive or negative features of an experience, for example, noticing only tiny imperfection in a piece of otherwise useful clothing.
  • Disqualifying the positive – Discounting positive experiences for arbitrary, ad hoc reasons.
  • Jumping to conclusions – Reaching conclusions (usually negative) from little (if any) evidence. Two specific subtypes are also identified:
    • Mind reading – Sense of access to special knowledge of the intentions or thoughts of others.
    • Fortune telling – Inflexible expectations for how things will turn out before they happen.
  • Magnification and minimization – Magnifying or minimizing a memory or situation such that they no longer correspond to objective reality. This is common enough in the normal population to popularize idioms such as “make a mountain out of a molehill.” In depressed clients, often the positive characteristics of other people are exaggerated and negative characteristics are understated. There is one subtype of magnification:
    • Catastrophizing – Inability to foresee anything other than the worst possible outcome, however unlikely, or experiencing a situation as unbearable or impossible when it is just uncomfortable.
  • Emotional reasoning – Experiencing reality as a reflection of emotions, e.g. “I feel it, therefore it must be true.”
  • Should statements – Patterns of thought which imply the way things “should” or “ought” to be rather than the actual situation the person is faced with, or having rigid rules which the person believes will “always apply” no matter what the circumstances are. Albert Ellis termed this “Musturbation”.
  • Labeling and mislabeling – Limited thinking about behaviors or events due to reliance on names; related to overgeneralization. Rather than describing the specific behavior, the person assigns a label to someone or himself that implies absolute and unalterable terms. Mislabeling involves describing an event with language that is highly colored and emotionally loaded.
  • PersonalizationAttribution of personal responsibility (or causal role or blame) for events over which a person has no control.

 

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Republicans Brains are Wired to Deny Science & Reality

A book review by Alice Friedemann at energyskeptic.com of:

Chris Mooney. 2012. “The Republican Brain. The Science of Why They Deny Science—and Reality”.

We are all susceptible to over 250 cognitive biases, fallacies, and errors, regardless of what political party we belong to. It seems every week a new book comes out about why we can’t see reality and make dumb choices.

I’ve read several such books lately.  Daniel Kahneman’s “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, is a good introduction to this research.  Kahneman shows that the basis of our cognitive biases is due to how our minds work. It begins with the lightning fast like/dislike reactions of our primitive emotional brain (system 1).  It’s up to the newer parts of our brain to interpret these basic emotional reactions (system 2).  But system 2 is slow and can only focus on a few things, so we usually succumb to the primitive biases of system 1 without even realizing it.

Chris Mooney’s book also sees our emotional brains as a big part of how we see the world, and of why we become a Democrat or Republican.

When an emotion bubbles up from our subconscious brain, we rationalize, not reason.  Or as Mooney puts it, “we’re not scientists, we’re lawyers trying to ‘win the case’, especially if we’re emotionally committed to an idea”.   We start to become little lawyers when we develop motivated reasoning around the age 4 or 5.  That’s when we start siding with the groups we belong to — our family, friends, neighbors, church, and political party.

I doubt many Republicans are going to read this book. They ought to. Mooney is thoughtful and insightful. Compare his evidence-based book with the Republican counterpart, Ann Coulter’s “If Democrats Had Any Brains, They’d be Republican”.  Some chapter titles:

  • Teddy Kennedy: apparently fat, drunk, and stupid is a way to go through life
  • Liberal “argument”: hissing, scratching, and hair-pulling,
  • Liberalism and other psychological disorders
  • Liberal tactics: distortion, dissembling, deception—and the rest is just run-of-the-mill treason
  • Baby-killing: Abort liberals, not children
  • Blacks: the only thing standing between the democrat party and oblivion
  • Christians: must Reproduce More
  • Communism: a new fragrance by Hillary Clinton
  • Environmentalism: Adolf Hitler was the first environmentalist
  • Evolution, Alchemy, and other “settled” scientific theories

Some good news: not everyone is equally biased.  Many of us are capable of listening to others and changing our views.  But this varies a lot from person to person, because people differ in their need to defend their point of view, in their need to have convictions that must not change, in their need to believe their group is right, and in their need for unity with their group.  If you’re wired and strongly motivated to have unwavering convictions, it will be almost impossible to change your mind with any facts, logic, or reason.  Mooney makes the case that this kind of person has a conservative mind, and is therefore likely to be a Republican.

Mooney likens someone with a strongly held opinion that’s being challenged to experiencing a physical attack, because these beliefs are physically embedded in the brain.

Which means you can’t expect to come up with undeniable, irrefutable facts and suddenly change someone’s mind, since their strongly held beliefs are literally wired into their brains.

Linguist George Lakoff, at the University of California, Berkeley, says that to think you can change someone’s beliefs with well-reasoned arguments is not only naïve, it’s also unwise and ineffective.

Reasoning is emotional, what psychologists call hot reasoning. We are not coldly rational.  Not even scientists are immune.  But what makes science the most successful way we have of testing reality is the scientific method, since peer review, experimental replication, and critiques from other scientists mean that eventually the best ideas emerge despite any individual’s biases. Within scientific circles, it’s considered admirable to give up cherished ideas when evidence shows you to be wrong.

Mooney believes this is a key difference between liberals and conservatives.  Scientists are overwhelmingly liberal — they have to be, or they won’t get far in their profession.  Please note this does not mean that their scientific discoveries are liberal or democratic.  Scientific findings aren’t political, they’re reality, and only become “political” when spun that way.  The opposite of a scientist is a religious, authoritarian, political conservative, because they tend to have a strong need to never modify their deeply held beliefs, or to ever appear to be uncertain and indecisive.

Since most of the most important problems that need to be solved require scientific literacy, which less than 10% of Americans have, here’s how Mooney says scientific news is interpreted by the other 90% of the public:

“When it comes to the dissemination of science—or contested facts in general—across a nonscientific populace, a very different process is often occurring than the scientific one.  A vast number of individuals, with widely varying motivations, are responding to the conclusions that science, allegedly, has reached.  Or so they’ve heard.

They’ve heard through a wide variety of information sources—news outlets with differing politics, friends and neighbors, political elites—and are processing the information through different brains, with very different commitments and beliefs, and different psychological needs and cognitive styles. And ironically, the fact that scientists and other experts usually employ so much nuance, and strive to disclose all remaining sources of uncertainty when they communicate their results, makes the evidence they present highly amenable to selective reading and misinterpretation.  Giving ideologues or partisans data that’s relevant to their beliefs is a lot like unleashing them in the motivated reasoning equivalent of a candy store.  In this context, rather than reaching an agreement or a consensus, you can expect different sides to polarize over the evidence and how to interpret it”.

If you’re going to make the strong claim that Republicans deny science and reality, you’d better back that up.   Which Mooney does quite well, beginning with the history of how Republicans and the Christian Right have built institutions of propaganda and recruited false experts for decades. Then he shows how these institutions have influenced issues like climate change, evolution, women’s rights, health care, economics, and so on.

Republicans have created a closed world view for their followers so they’re never exposed to ideas outside this universe of Fox TV, hate talk radio, and other right-wing and Christian propaganda.  What’s presented is carefully crafted to appeal to conservative minds and provides them with certainty and closure.

This means there can never be a moment of clarity like when Joseph Welch told McCarthy live on ABC television in 1954 “Have you no sense of decency, sir?  At long last, have you left no sense of decency?” and suddenly people woke up to the evils of right-wing McCarthyism and made it go away.

But this is not a book about what’s wrong with the world and how to fix it, or how you can change a Republican’s mind now that you know how they operate. It’s more of a Carl Sagan “Science as a candle in the dark”, shining of light into the dark corners that lurk within closed minds, and groups of closed minds, shut off from reality.  Mooney casts light with the latest scientific findings and critical thinking skills.

The Big 5 Personality Traits and how they predict which party you’re likely to join

Scientists have tried to boil personality research from the past decades into a unified theory and have come up with the “big 5” personality traits (see wiki or my book review of Daniel Nettle’s book, “Personality, What makes you the way you are”).

Some of the liberal/conservative correlations with the big 5 personality traits:

  • 71% of liberals have an open outlook
  • 61% of conservatives are high in conscientiousness
  • 59% of the highly educated are liberals
  • 56% of those with very high incomes are conservatives

But these traits are not destiny.  Overall, our political views are 40% genetic, 60% environment.  There is no democratic or republican gene, but dispositions that pre-dispose us one way or the other.

If you walked into someone’s home, you could probably tell which way they swing – liberals and conservatives hang out at different places, dress differently, date differently, and listen to different music.  Liberals have more books and music, across a wider range of topics and styles than conservatives.  Conservatives have more sports paraphernalia, American flags, and cleaning supplies.

How to Avoid Giving up a Cherished Belief

Goal post shifting. Mooney defines this as demanding ever more evidence, or tweaking your view to avoid giving up a belief despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

My expert is better than your expert.   Allows you to ignore what the other person is saying because you’ve found an expert who says the opposite. So when conservatives deny climate change, it’s because they think their experts are the best — the most realistic and truthful.

Stop seeking out more information.  Republicans have a much higher need for closure, so they are likely to seize upon information that pleases them and stop looking for more.

Republicans are More Biased than Democrats

Basically, conservatives are more strongly motivated to defend their beliefs, and are far more likely to cling to wrong views even more tenaciously when presented with incontrovertible evidence they are wrong (Backfire effect).  Smart, educated republicans better at coming up with incorrect facts to defend their beliefs than the less educated, what Mooney calls “the smart idiot effect”.  The opposite is true of Democrats – the more educated, the more likely a democrat will change his/her mind when evidence proves them wrong.

Why are we so Irrational?

Mooney makes the case that reasoning didn’t evolve to make us good logicians but to make us persuasive speakers, finding evidence to support whatever our case is, and to see the flaws in other people’s arguments.

Reasoning doesn’t exist for us to get at objective truth, it’s there to defend our position in a social context.   This is why we go to such elaborate lengths to defend wrong beliefs, and come up with truly bizarre “religions” like Scientology.

There’s an evolutionary advantage to being able to talk other people into doing what you want and helping you out. There’s also an evolutionary advantage to be able to poke holes in other peoples arguments and discerning whether a speaker was reliable and trustworthy.

We may not be perfect at reasoning, but not everyone is bad at it or unwilling to change their minds based on new evidence.  But it does appear that conservative minds are more likely to strongly defend their beliefs against any argument, and to persist in sticking to their incorrect beliefs no matter what evidence challenges their ideas.

The entire group benefits when all sides of an issue are aired, with everyone able to speak up about the flaws in others arguments.  Groups that don’t allow this, where the leaders aren’t challenged, can go very astray.  People or groups who insulate themselves from different opinions can end up like crazy hermits.

Conservatives are much more likely to be “crazy hermits” and follow conservative authorities who are dead wrong.  Their minds can’t be changed because of their need for closure, not seeking out new information, and the backfire effect, all of which make them more likely to hold wrong views.  Conservatives strive harder to be unified with their teams, so even if a conservative changes his/her mind, s(he) has little motivation to speak out or pick a fight with friends, family, and other groups.  Plus conservatives are far more likely than liberals to ostracize dissenters.

Mooney strives hard to find examples of bias in liberals to contrast with the extremely strong and incorrect biases of conservatives, but try as he might, he can come up with very few liberal biases.  He says that one way liberals might be biased is in overstating harm to prevent environmental damages.

Since the book was published, Mooney has interviewed Mark Lynas about science and bias on the left in a March 4, 2013 Point of Inquiry podcast (mainly the left’s being anti-GMO), and Michael Shermer, in the February 2013 issue of Scientific American has an article “The Left’s War on Science: How politics distorts science on both ends of the spectrum”.

Why are conservatives conservative?

Researchers say that conservatism satisfies normal, deep human desires to manage uncertainty and fear by finding beliefs and values that are certain, stable, and unchanging.  The need for order, structure, closure, and management of threat are normal.  Other normal tendencies that conservatives have are patriotism, decisiveness, and loyalty to friends and allies.

On pages 107-109, Mooney makes the case for conservatism being the default position, by showing how you can turn democrats into republicans in certain situations.

Partisan Democratic and Republican brains differ

Partisan Democratic and Republican brains are different.  Democrats have a larger anterior cingulated cortex (part of the frontal lobe connected to the prefrontal cortex).  This is the area that makes corrective responses, that can override the automatic emotional system 1 and bring in system 2 reasoning.

Republicans have a larger right amygdala. The amygdala is at the epicenter of our fear and threat center, a central component of our emotionally-centered brain.   Those with greater fear “dispositions” such as distrust of outsiders and people of different races, tend to be politically conservative.

What are the three kinds of conservatives?

Mooney breaks them down into Economic, Status-quo, and Authoritarians.  Economic and Status-quo conservatives are intellectual and principled.  Authoritarians are more primal, driven by visceral negative responses to otherness and a desire to impose their way of doing things on others.  All three types have a resistance to change.

Conclusion 

In these times of gridlocked politics, and the Republican War on Science (another of Mooney’s books), the Republican’s lack of reality and denial of science combined with billions of dollars invested in massive right-wing propaganda media and other institutions scares me and nearly everyone I know who’s paying attention.

Perhaps if there were a way for each side to understand one another our country could be governed more pragmatically.  Mooney is particularly upset that Republicans deny climate change, since that could drive us and most other species extinct (though see my energyskeptic post “Why do political and economic leaders deny Peak Oil and Climate Change?” for a more nuanced understanding of what’s going on).

Across time and place, liberals are agents of change, conservatives the resisters – the yin and yang of societies.  In America, Democrats are more likely to compromise, to see things in shades of gray.  Republicans tend to be more rigid, are less likely to compromise, and see the world in more black and white terms.  These different cognitive styles lead to differences in information processing.

It’s good to be reminded not to trust your initial reactions and confabulate them into incorrect rationalizations.  If all of us could be more reflective and open to new ideas, and unattached to old ones, we might be able to create and sustain better communities.

I read this book partly because I wondered whether there were any practical insights that might help reform our broken political system.  But I doubt it, especially after hearing an NPR interview today with Robert Kaiser about his book “Act of Congress: How America’s Essential Institution Works, and How It Doesn’t”.   Extreme partisanship and defense of turf decides what bills pass and their content far more than policy.  Most Congressmen are ignorant on important issues, so their staffs make powerful and influential decisions, which are probably not always beneficial for the public, since staffers often aspire to become corporate lobbyists.

My Take on this Book Given All the Other Books I’ve Read (energyskeptic booklist)

I think that they way parties influence people is by setting the agenda of what’s talked about, what the issues are, especially around election time, because the rest of the time, people aren’t paying a lot of attention.

We’re bombarded with information, and don’t have the time to read books on health care, nutrition, the history of fiat currencies and how our monetary system works, how to fix our own plumbing / electrical system / build a house — we simply must rely on “experts” because we don’t have the time to become an expert on everything in the world.

A political party is just another “expert” that to some extent we have to trust as the best choice to run government.  I bet the majority of people disagree with their political party about some of their platforms, just like the vast majority of Catholic women are on birth control despite the Pope being against it.

The way conservative and liberal minds manifest themselves in political parties at this time in America interests me less than what the idea of liberal versus conservative minds means across time and cultures, or if it’s even a useful concept.  Would educated minds be a better term than liberal minds, since people who are more educated tend to be Democrats?

As far as the differences between the two parties, Joe Bageant, in his excellent book “Deer Hunting with Jesus: Dispatches from America’s Class War” is one of the best I’ve read. He explains how it came to be that so many people vote for politicians whose policies are against their own interests.

I see the world from a systems ecology point of view and think both democrats and republicans are nuts to think we can grow forever on a finite planet.  Both want to “grow the economy” at a time when we are at peak resources.

Political and economic ways of describing the world are more like blinders, false and narrow constructs that divert attention from what really matters — what keeps us alive: natural resources, infrastructure, and above all energy, especially liquid transportation fuels.  So I greatly appreciate all of Mooney’s books that use science as the basis for criticism, but wish that he would pay more attention to the real issues — above all, fossil fuel energy resources, which allows us to over-exploit all the other resources way past carrying capacity and makes civilization as we know it possible.

Is the idea of a liberal or conservative party useful, given that in all societies since civilization began, the ruling despots were mainly interested in gaining or keeping their wealth, fighting off rivals, and rewarding their tribe? First of all, for most of time, there was no political party to join, and now that they exist, framing reality as political and economic truths or moral issues distracts people from noticing their pockets are being picked and the wealth redistributed to the already wealthy.

To the extent that this is true, “conservatism” is rooted in self-interest to prevent a redistribution of land, money, and power, and “liberalism” is rooted in overthrowing the existing order and replacing it with a better or different one.  If successful, a new group reigns and the cycle of corruption and mismanagement begins again.

The word corporation isn’t in the index of Mooney’s book. Or campaign finance reform, the intersection of politics and money that drives both Democratic and Republican legislation to favor special interests over the public good.  Yet I think most politicians work extremely hard to make pragmatic, not “republican” or “democratic” decisions, and care deeply about our nation and helping others, but they’re caught between the rock of funding campaigns and the hard place of not being able to fix our real problems, or even talk about them, due to the peaking of energy resources.

Gridlock is to some extent a way of taking corporate money to finance campaigns or an eventual return of the favor in some abstract codicil that will benefit the corporation, but if it’s too noxious to justify to the folks back home, the bill can be killed in many ways, never get out of committee, and that way the money can be taken and the public not harmed, and “getting anything done” take a heck of a long time.

And what exactly do conservative and liberal “values” and “morality” mean?  Is there a pattern?  Are there only two sides? Other countries have many political parties. Isn’t there often only one side and dissenters killed or exiled? Were hunter-gatherer liberal or democratic societies?

The best book I know to understand reality is Charles A. Hall’s “Energy and the Wealth of Nations: Understanding the Biophysical Economy”.  This is a revolutionary book that uses science as the basis of economics and is full of testable hypotheses, and explains why the current Neo-classical “economics” is more crazy than the most bizarre cult or religion you can think of.  This book ought to be the economics 101 textbook at all universities.  To get an idea of what it’s about, read Richard Vodra’s review at resilience.org.

The past four centuries of growth resulted in one-time only economic and political systems that provided thousands of energy slaves to every person (Buckminster Fuller) in developed countries, allowing us the luxury of a democratic political system. After the decline of fossil fuels, we’ll be back in the unstable alliances, regional governments, and occasional empires of the wood-based civilizations that existed before coal started the industrial revolution (see John Perlin’s “A Forest Journey: The Role of Wood in the Development of Civilization”).  Political “parties” are more likely to be determined by what tribe or family you belong to, not your liberal or conservative mind, and you probably won’t be voting unless you’re wealthy.

It seems to me that a society of conservative minds would be the normal one, selected for by warfare, since tribes that were more unified, more religious, more willing to fight and die for both their group and their God would win the most battles.  The human past was endless warfare and skirmishes.  Communities were in a constant state of fear and on alert for an attack– surely most of us had enlarged amygdala’s?

What are the selection forces liberal minds?   I have no idea.  Maybe liberals provided a bit of comic relief for the conservatives.  They were the fun people, the tribal drummers, cave painters, the best dancers around the fire.

Population exploded from 1 billion to 7 billion people once fossil fuels launched an amazing number of new industries and increased intensive agricultural production 5-fold with fossil fuel based fertilizers and pesticides.  Perhaps those with liberal minds coped the best with constant change and did well in getting the billions of new jobs that arose, while the conservatives remained the servants at Downton Abbey.

Miscellaneous

I’ve always been fascinated by why people fall into these camps and wondered why.  Ever since I can remember, I could be sure of rowdy political debates on holidays as relatives on either side argued about current affairs, with poor Uncle John in the middle, trying to moderate the discussions and keep them from getting out of hand.  You’d think genetics and shared experiences would have put us all on one side or the other.

This book made me think about what experiences and traits led me to have a liberal mind. I think I could have gone either way, but above all I wanted to fit in with other kids, and they overwhelmingly came from liberal families where I grew up. Judith Harris makes a very convincing case that parents don’t have nearly as much impact on children as their peers do in “The Nurture Assumption: Why Children Turn Out the Way They Do” and I strongly agree based on my own experiences.  I became a democrat the day nearly everyone’s hand shot up when the teacher asked whose parents would be voting for Kennedy.

One study Mooney cites says that the stronger a man is, the more likely he’s a  Republican (see sciencedaily “Why Are Action Stars More Likely to Be Republican?”)

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The Big 5 Personality Traits – psychobabble or science?

Alice Friedemann’s review of :

Daniel Nettle.  2008.  “Personality, What makes you the way you are”.  Oxford University Press.

Scientists have considered psychology to be a very soft science at best and quackery or psychobabble at worst.  But psychology is finally making scientific strides with the testable theories generated by evolutionary biology, brain imaging equipment, being able to measure genetic variation between people, and animal studies – critters also exhibit what in humans we call personality traits.

Daniel Nettle has written a book for the public explaining the latest scientific research on personality.  He explains how it’s measured, what the measures mean or predict, and why we vary in personality traits.

He defines personality as:

  • Consistent patterns in our lives across love, career, and friendships, often repeating the same sorts of triumphs or mistakes.
  • Even smaller, less significant patterns in everyday life tend to have patterns – how we dress, whether we talk to strangers, etc
  • Basically, everyone’s nervous system is wired up differently.

Nearly all psychologists agree on a Big Five model of personality dimensions, consolidating decades of research.  Before this, different researchers used different varying traits.  For example, 4 main types (thinking, feeling, sensing, or intuiting), or just reward vs harm avoidance. Each study had results that appeared to have no relationship to each other.

The five factor model created order out of this mess, all previous studies can be fit into this framework because they either measured one of the big five or a sub-part of one of them, or perhaps a mix of several.

Okay, it’s not science entirely yet – to do that, this new approach needs to prove these traits are neurobiologically real, but this framework gives personality psychologists testable hypotheses.  Until now, much of it sounded like psychobabble to me, and I do cringe at lumping people into categories.

What makes the big 5 more plausible to me is that we all have all five traits to varying degrees, and we change over time depending on our genetics and our life experiences (which is why twins, even though totally the same genetically, can be quite different).

Here’s the list of the Big 5:

Dimension                   High Scorers are                    Low Scorers are

Extraversion                Outgoing, enthusiastic            Aloof, quiet

Neuroticism                 Prone to stress & worry         Emotionally stable

Conscientiousness       Organized, self-directed         Spontaneous, careless

Agreeableness              Trusting, empathetic              Uncooperative, hostile

Openness                     Creative, imaginative             Practical, conventional

About half of your score is out of your control – genetics is responsible.

These traits have important consequences in life. High neuroticism in either partner is more likely to lead to divorce or an unhappy marriage.  Divorce is also likely if the male is low in conscientiousness.  Extraverts are the least likely to stay in an unhappy marriage.

Other consequences, such as low agreeableness, have less dire consequences, but will nevertheless affect how a person gets along in the world.  These folks are more likely to snap at others and be irritated easily, leading to less satisfying personal relationships and career advancement.

Situations make a difference, extraverts have more casual sex than introverts, probably because introverts are at home and extraverts are at parties, meeting potential partners.

A recurring theme of the book is that while you might think that there’s some optimum level of any trait to have, this doesn’t appear to be the case or natural selection would make us much more similar.  For example, high scoring neurotics are more worried than other people.  Why not just be happy all the time?

Nettle says that animals vary in what we could call neuroticism too – some guppies hide if there’s a predatory fish in the tank because they come from a stream with predators, and other guppies are fearless because they live in a place with no predatory fish.  The fearful guppies outlive the fearless guppies by far if you introduce a predator.

But creatures who spend too much time looking for predators won’t get enough to eat and be as healthy as their more relaxed brethren – so there’s a constant balancing act going on in nature across neuroticism and all of the other traits.  In one situation a trait might be good, in another bad, and so there is never an optimal balance of a particular trait that nature settles on (in evolutionary theory this is called fluctuating selection).

Extraversion

Extraverts are high in sociability but that doesn’t mean they have good social relationships – that’s predicted by agreeableness.  Shyness isn’t usually due to low extraversion, but to high neuroticism and anxiety.  Someone low on extraversion can do without much social activity and not mind it, often seeming aloof.

Extravert traits: enjoy sex, romance, tend to be ambitious, work hard for fame or money, like active sports, travel, and novelty. They have a lot of positive emotion, with more joy, desire, enthusiasm, and excitement than low scorers.  This acts as an incentive, so they’re more willing to go the extra mile to a party, event, or date after an exhausting day at work.  This doesn’t mean low scorers on the extrovert scale are negative or sad, they’re just emotionally flatter, which makes them less likely to get out and about, because there’s less reward in it for them.

Extraverts brains even operate differently – with higher responsiveness in several brain areas than low scorers.

Nettle speculates at the end of each chapter about the advantages and disadvantages of each trait.  So who wouldn’t want to be an extrovert?  Nettle says that perhaps their predilection for dangerous sports leads to earlier deaths, and more breakups of marriages from affairs, which puts their children at risk with step-parents.

Within a marriage, if your partner is a higher scorer than you, they’ll want to do things that seem pointless and expensive whether it’s buying a sports car, wanting to go to far more parties than you do, or taking up a wild new hobby.  If you score higher, then you’ll feel disappointed (s)he doesn’t want to do as much as you do or get enthusiastic about your latest passion.  Nettle concludes “Don’t worry. It’s just how they are wired up”.

Neurotics

Scoring high means being more affected by the tribulations of everyday life, feeling more fear, anxiety, shame, guilt and sadness than most people. Neurotics are more likely to have depression, anxiety, eating, personality, and obsessive-compulsive disorders, phobias, PTSD, schizophrenia, insomnia, and headaches.

Sadness may be useful — to the extent it slows us down enough to re-think our plans if they’ve failed, and make better plans for the future, and signal to others we need support and comfort.

Why on earth would such an unhappy trait be selected for? We’re probably all wired to look for dangerous predators, loss of social position, or the risk of social ostracism – death sentences for most of our ancestors.   But Nettle says that neurotics are like overly sensitive smoke detectors, spending a lot of time looking for dangers.   Chances are the ancestors of neurotics worried a lot, but in the end, were less likely to make a fatal error than their happier brethren, and avoided being eaten or making the leaders of the tribe angry and being expelled from the group.

High scorers tend to direct their negative emotions towards themselves, leading to low self-esteem. Neurotics think ‘it was my fault’, everybody hates me’, or ’I will never succeed’ in reaction to bad events.  A high scorer is constantly wondering if (s)he did the right thing and often changes their identity and goals throughout life.

High scorers fear dangers faced in the past – rejection, illness, open spaces, strangers, and unspoken negative intentions of others.  In the long run they have a slightly increased risk for heart disease, gastric disorders, and hypertension.  They have less satisfactory marriages and work lives. Their negative emotions can bring about the very result they fear, such as a wife who worries and nags her husband due to her fear he’ll leave may give him reason to do just that.

Nettle posits this trait is selected for to protect us, and the threshold of what’s appropriate to worry about is constantly changing depending on what sort of world we’re born into.  Perhaps those who score low have a higher mortality rate because they’re not worried enough.

Although this trait usually harms careers, a neurotic open person might write as a form of therapy.  Their fear of failing motivates them to strive (as long as they aren’t too disorganized or feel too awful to function). Nettle writes that neurotics “see the problems of the world starkly, in all their equivocal complexity”.

He concludes “High scorers should not just wish their worry away, but, just like any other trait, understand the strength, sensitivity, striving, and insight that it may give them. There are niches in the world where these are very valuable.  They do come at a cost of often awful suffering through many days of their lives. The art is to manage these costs, to live with them, and to limit them so they do not become overwhelming”.

Controllers

High scorers are conscientious and high scores predict better than any other trait occupational success in any kind of work, as well as living longer – up to 30% more than someone who scores low.

Low scorers have impulse control problems and are more likely to succumb to one or more of gambling, drug dependencies, irresponsible behavior, law breaking, and antisocial personality disorder.  They’re more impulsive, spontaneous, and have weak wills.  A low score in this trait is the most likely predictor of addiction problems.

Addictions happen when a person can’t stop a once-rewarding behavior.  There may be no euphoria involved, because their brains have become so used to the addictive substance.  They just can’t stop their habit.

Agreeableness

Agreeable people can sort out complex descriptions of how people are feeling.  Nettle gives these two examples:

Tom hoped that Jim would believe that Susan thought that Edward wanted to marry Jenny (4th level nested description).

John though that Penny thought that Tom wanted Penny to find out whether Sheila believed that John knew what Susan wanted to do (5th level nested description).

It turns out that people who do best at understanding the last sentence tend to have a larger network of friends than those who don’t do well. Young children with this skill are perceived by their teachers as getting along well with other kids.

Empathizers pay more attention to the mental states of others and tend to be helpful, social, warm trusting behavior.  They tend to have good relationships, good social support, and rarely fall out with or insult others.  They’re quick to forgive, and slow to anger even with people who deserve it.  Often they end up in careers as counselors, social workers, or volunteer work.

Those who score low are less likely to trust or help others, can be cold or antagonistic, have less harmonious relationships, and at the very bottom, psychopathy.

Psychopaths are egocentric, dishonest, feel no remorse, can’t love, and tend to use others for their own ends.  They have no qualms about being aggressive.  Of the three traits, empathy for others is the most important in preventing psychopathy.

But to be a full-blown monster, you’d also need to score low on conscientiousness and anxiety.  Without empathy, the person still might not do harm because they’re not impulsive and will realize the likely consequences of their actions.  If he’s also low in neuroticism, he’ll feel no fear – now all the barriers are down and this can result in some very bad people.  Fortunately it’s rare for someone to be very low across all three traits.

Autistics are not psychopaths.  Although they have trouble with social relationships, and struggle to understand the mental state of others, they tend to be helpful to others in distress.  Psychopaths can predict others mental states just fine and use that knowledge to manipulate and deceive.

Nettle speculates that being a good group member is a very important trait – being ostracized from the group in the past could be a death sentence.

He doesn’t discuss why psychopathy would exist, but I’ve read elsewhere that psychopaths are the only people unafraid in battle, and our history is one of constant skirmishes, so this trait would be useful throughout most of history if these people were channeled into the military.

Being too agreeable tends to lessen success a bit, since you’re spending more time than average maintaining a wide network of relationships, which takes time away from work, or lessens the ambition to rise in a career since that isn’t as important as friendships.  Nettle refers to two studies that showed nice guys finish last. Some ruthlessness is required to reach the highest positions in corporations perhaps.

Which brings up the conundrum of finding an ideal partner – women would like someone who’s kind and empathic, but also someone successful – and these traits don’t usually coincide. As Nettle puts it “the kind of person who could give you a glittering lifestyle is quite likely not the kind of person you would wish to share such a life with”.

One of the most documented and proven differences between men and women score higher in Agreeableness than men – the average man scores lower than 70% of women.   When women are given testosterone, it reduces their empathetic behavior.

Openness

High scorers are more likely to read books, and go to art galleries, theater, and music events than the average person.  This trait is correlated with intelligence, but it’s not the same as intelligence.  People who score high tend to be imaginative and pursue artistic endeavors.

In several pages of writing about Ginsberg’s poem “Howl”, Nettle conveys the trait of openness with a bit of poetry himself.  He thinks that those who score high in openness have fewer, more permeable filters that allow broader associations.  Those high in openness are more likely to challenge social norms, try out many different jobs, philosophies, and lifestyles.  They also have a strong sense of spirituality, or even supernatural belief.

Often they have a schizotype personality – they’re of sound mind but more psychotic than the rest of the population.  They might hear voices, have perceptual disturbances where everything seems strange or significant, magical ideas (supernatural forces, feelings of telepathy).  Or they might have unusual experiences and aberrant thoughts and even some beliefs similar to those of schizophrenics, but not have other aspects of schizophrenia like emotional flatness or social withdrawal and lack of motivation. High-scorers are more likely to have psychosis-like experiences.  They tend to be politically liberal and avoid orthodox institutions, with strong idiosyncratic supernatural or spiritual beliefs.  They’re more likely to experiment with exotic religions or creeds, New Age ideas, or believe in the paranormal.  They’re more likely to have beliefs that run against the mores of their time and less governed by taboos or social acceptability.   They’re relatively susceptible to hypnosis.

Advantages: “Geoffrey Miller argued in his book, “The Mating Mind”, that verbal creativity became a potent mate-selection trait.  …Individuals would tend to select mates displaying the quality of their brains through unusually complex verbal and symbolic” ways of writing or speaking, driving up general intelligence in the population, as well as openness.

How we come to have our personalities

Except for genetics, studies with identical twins, fraternal twins, and siblings have shown that parents have very little effect on our personalities.  In normal households that is, clearly an abusive or violent upbringing might have lasting effects.

“This is a stunning finding, and it has caused quite a stir.  It is probably the most important discovery in psychology in recent decades, not least because it is counter-intuitive and overturns many entrenched beliefs.  Out must go all simple notions about how cold mothers or absent fathers or large families or farm living shape our personalities”.

Then he knocks out birth order and prenatal effects.

The main thing that seems to make a difference is your own traits:

“The extent to which one should be neurotic about sources of harm depends in part on how fleet of foot one is, how good one’s immune system is, etc.  Whether one should pursue risky rewards depends a lot on whether one is strong and attractive.  The former makes one able to cope if things go wrong, whilst the latter is a big determinant of success if the rewards pursued are social or sexual ones.  Whether one needs to be very conscientious in working hard at problems depends in part how smart one is; very quick-witted people can probably prepare on the fly.  Basically, it makes a lot of sense that evolution would have built into us a capacity to modulate our personalities in response to our health, intelligence, size, and attractiveness”.

There is some evidence for this – extraverts are more symmetrical, implying fewer mutations or environmental stressors during development, and they’re perceived as being more attractive.  Men increase in extraversion when they’re tall, though this isn’t the case with women.  Large men also seem to be slightly less nice, on average, perhaps because large men can get away wit breaking rules.

Conclusion

All of us vary in each of the 5 dimensions, just like we do with weight, height, or intelligence. Nettle posits that if we could measure people with ten distinct points along each of the five personality scales, there’d be 105, or 100,000 possible personalities. So even though life would be much simpler if we could wedge everyone into a few categories, we’d be wearing blinders to the true complexity of our fellow human beings.

If you took the 100,000 personalities literally, there’d be 1,500 other women just like me in the USA.  But they won’t be like me.

Nettle speculates that though they’ll have more similar lives and relationships than a random sample, their lives will be very different because they’ve all found different ways of expressing the traits they have.  There are many ways of expressing extroversion.

Even more importantly, there’s the level of one’s subjective life story.  We all tell our story of who we are, what we’re doing, and why differently in our personal stories.  This unique narration has a considerable effect on identity.   Nettle gives the examples of someone who never married could either tell this story as a tragedy or a comedy.  Another who was never successful in a career, but had great varied experiences could either tell their story as one of failure or how they’d escaped the rat race and had a much better time.

Which brings up the topic of change – what if we don’t want to be shy worried irresponsible hostile conformists?

Luckily, as we age, all of us tend to get slightly more agreeable and conscientious, and slightly less open, extroverted, and neurotic.  We have the power to change ourselves, to stop destructive or dangerous behaviors.

It’s easier when the changes we try to make go along with our nature, like an extrovert switching from riding a motorcycle to driving a sports car. But even an introverted person can change themselves against the grain, by finding work or social activities that involve being around lots of people.

And above all, we can spin our own personal stories to see our lives in a better light.

Alas, Nettle says, those who most need to do this – those high in neuroticism — have the hardest time seeing their lives in anything but a negative light (though they’re more realistic than low scorers).  Those most likely to be unhappy about their personalities tend to neurotics who infuse everything with suffering.  He recommends neurotics try meditation, exercise, yoga, cognitive behavior therapy, and medications to work around their fears and anxieties.

Nettle concludes by reminding the reader that no one should regret the constellation of personality traits they have – all have their advantages and disadvantages, which he has illustrated throughout the book.   Though these speculations about why a trait might be good or bad given different environments is the least scientific part of the book – but then there’s still much to be learned, and we can hope this new grouping of traits will lead to better testing.

I was not able to tell from reading the book if this new “big 5” concept was a major revolutionary shift within the personality field and adopted by the vast majority of researchers.  Wikipedia says that “The model is considered to be the most comprehensive empirical or data-driven enquiry into personality”.

Wikipedia gives these main criticisms:

1)      This is not a theory, just data-driven descriptions of traits

2)      Not all traits are included (i.e. Religiosity, Honesty, Thriftiness, Conservativeness,  Sense of humor, etc)

3)      There are 3, or 18, or 7 factors, not 5

So it looks like personality research has a long way to go to reach more scientific credibility.

But overall, this book was useful and fun to read.  Nettle describes quite well what it’s like to be weak or strong in these dimensions, and I recognized myself and so many others in the descriptions – it’s somehow satisfying to know that I share these traits, both good and bad, with so many others, and to have another tool to understand others with.

I also liked Nettle strongly emphasizing throughout the book that there is no best profile to have, not even being average in all of them.  Your best bet is to make the best of the hand you’ve been dealt – maximize your strengths and minimize your weaknesses.  Your basic dispositions are a resource, not a curse.

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Renewable Energy can’t supply more than 30% of electricity without revolutionary battery breakthrough

Wind and solar are too intermittent to comprise much of electric grid power now, according to Steven Cu, former US energy secretary.  In 2010, Chu said, “Without technological breakthroughs in efficient, large-scale energy storage, it will be difficult to rely on intermittent renewables for much more than 20-30% of electricity.”

Unless a major breakthrough in batteries happens, we will continue to require natural gas fueled power plants to ramp up and down quickly to cope with intermittent sources of power.  “When you ramp power plants up and down they lose efficience” according to Haresh kamath of the Electric Power Research Institute in Washington DC.

And keep in mind, for the long run, these batteries need to have a positive EROEI over their entire life cycle from mining and crushing of rocks for metals to fabrication to delivery.  If they require more energy to construct across the life cycle than they more energy to create than at least 5 times the energy stored and discharged, our way of life can’t continue.

In addition, batteries must be composed of cheap and abundant materials.  Platinum, lithium, and many other metals are scarce and take too much energy to extract.

References

Hal Hodson. 2 Feb 2013. Greening the Grid. NewScientist.

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