Underestimating the Challenges of Avoiding a Ghastly Future

Preface. This is another “Scientists Warnings to Humanity” by many famous scientists, including Paul & Anne Erlich, John Harte, Peter Raven, and Mathis Wackernagel.

Some of the challenges they point to are loss of biodiversity and consequent 6th mass extinction, human population growth which has led to ecological overshoot and overconsumption, climate change and consequent mass migrations. They conclude there will be mass extinction, declining health, and war over resources and many other grim consequences.

They conclude that “…only a realistic appreciation of the colossal challenges facing the international community might allow it to chart a less-ravaged future. While there have been more recent calls for the scientific community in particular to be more vocal about their warnings to humanity, these have been insufficiently foreboding to match the scale of the crisis. Given the existence of a human “optimism bias” that triggers some to underestimate the severity of a crisis and ignore expert warnings, a good communication strategy must ideally undercut this bias without inducing disproportionate feelings of fear and despair. It is therefore incumbent on experts in any discipline that deals with the future of the biosphere and human well-being to eschew reticence, avoid sugar-coating the overwhelming challenges ahead and “tell it like it is.” Anything else is misleading at best, or negligent and potentially lethal for the human enterprise at worst.”

Continue reading →

Posted in Biodiversity, Extinction, Overshoot, Scientists, Scientists Warnings to Humanity | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Motherboards: too complicated to make after oil

Preface. The wood world of the future simply won’t have the energy and minerals required to make electronic devices and the precision machine tools to make them.  Once diesel fuel starts to decline, all supply chains will be affected. There are no supply chains that don’t have diesel trucks, locomotives, ships, barges or some combination.  Especially the industrial agriculture system that produces the vast majority of food with diesel tractors, harvesters, and distribution by trucks. 

I have another post called “The Fragility of Microchips” which explains why these will be one of the first high technologies to fail, and are even more difficult and complex to make than motherboards.

It’s past time to preserve knowledge on something more long lasting than microfiche or acid-free paper. Meanwhile, buy books you’d like to see preserved in the future in hard or softback, not e-books, since they will all (and most journals) vanish when the grid goes down.

Continue reading →

Posted in Microchips and computers | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

“More and More and More” one of the best books on energy ever written

Preface. This is about Jean-Baptiste Fressoz’s book “More and More and More”, an amazing history of energy and explanation of why there never has been an energy transition or will be. We just keep burning more and more and more wood, coal, oil, and natural gas.

Continue reading →

Posted in Energy Books, Interdependencies | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

The staggering destruction of knowledge by Christians in the Roman Empire

Preface. Ever since reading Gibbons “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire” I’ve been fascinated by the complexity of reasons for why the Roman Empire fell.  But so many books and writings were lost that much remains unknown. Mainly due to Christians destroying and looting books, temples, art, statues, and anything deemed Pagan.  It is estimated that  less than 1% of ancient literature survived to the present day. Yet the role of Christian authorities in the active suppression and destruction of books in Late Antiquity has received surprisingly little sustained consideration by academics.

This is a book review of Nixey (2019) The darkening age: The Christian destruction of the Classical World, a book about how Christians destroyed most of the books of ancient philosophies, encyclopedias, and other writings. And much more. Other books on this topic include Rohmann (2016) Christianity, Book-Burning and Censorship in Late Antiquity, and Ovenden (2021) Burning the Books: A History of the Deliberate Destruction of Knowledge.

This is not only a fascinating, and horrifying book, but important now that American Christian Nationalist and other evangelist sects are trying to ban books (Rosen 2023 Banned in America! Christian Nationalists are demanding the removal of books from public and school libraries across the country in a growing wave of culture war battles, Baeta 2025 The Normalization of Book Banning, Randal 2022 Why Christian Nationalists want to ban books.

And rewrite textbooks and school curriculums (Laats 2023 The Right-Wing Textbooks Shaping What Many Americans Know About History, Clossen 2025 Inside a new bible-infused Texas English curriculum, Christian textbooks used in thousands of schools use an alternate version of history and make Christian nationalism more mainstream).

This is quit upsetting for me because I write about why the collapse of our fossil fueled civilization is likely to be triggered by diesel shortages, since there are no supply chains that don’t depend on transportation provided by heavy duty road and off-road trucks, ships, and locomotives.  Consequently, the Preservation of Knowledge has been one of the overriding themes of my website energyskeptic.com. I would sure hate it if Christians triumph and create the fiction that God did it because we had danced, partied, and used scientific knowledge to give us joy and awe of the universe rather than Accepting Jesus As Our Savior.

Continue reading →

Posted in Preservation of Knowledge, Roman Empire | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

Why the R/P Reserves to Production ratio does not show when oil will run out

Venezuela has an incredibly high oil reserves-to-production ratio
This is calculated b dividing proved oil reserves by its annual production. That tells us how many years proved reserves would last if production stayed constant, and no new reserves were discovered or became economic. Since these numbers can change it shouldn’t be interpreted as the number of years before the country “runs out”.  Source: Ritchie H (2026) Five(ish) charts that give some context to Venezuelan oil.

Continue reading →

Posted in How Much Left, Peak Oil | Tagged , | Comments Off on Why the R/P Reserves to Production ratio does not show when oil will run out

Catton on Collapse “Bottleneck: Humanity’s Impending Impasse”

Preface. Below is a very short summary of a book written by the founding father of human ecology, William R Catton Jr called Bottleneck: Humanity’s impending Impass written in 2009.  His first book in 1980, Overshoot, introduced basic concepts of ecology, exponential growth, carrying capacity, and Liebig’s law to explain how finite fossil fuels have temporarily allowed us to overshoot ecological limits.  In his latest book, explains why it is too late to avoid the collapse of industrial civilization, mainly from fossil decline.

The second article, Hooke (2012) Land transformation by humans, delves into the ways in which our degradation of land is leading to collapse.

Continue reading →

Posted in Collapse of Civilizations, Energy Books | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Catton on Collapse “Bottleneck: Humanity’s Impending Impasse”

Book Review of Grain Brain: Extraordinary claim not backed up by evidence

This is my book review of David Perlmutter’s (2013) Grain Brain: The Surprising Truth about Wheat, Carbs, and Sugar–Your Brain’s Silent Killers. At the New York Times, this book was the #1 best seller in the Dining list and #9 in the Advice, How-To & Miscellaneous list in November 2013. The idea that you should eat more fat and meat is still quite popular.

Given all the Fake News circulating, I thought I’d republish this so you can see how I analyzed the claims made, including every citation. Not one backed up what was written and often had nothing to do with it. But the citations looked good, many from trustworthy sources.  So do check the references in what you’re reading, especially to learn even more about a topic.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity

Continue reading →

Posted in Critical Thinking, Farming & Ranching | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on Book Review of Grain Brain: Extraordinary claim not backed up by evidence

Why did everyone stop talking about Population & Immigration?

Preface. This post summarizes the top 26 reasons why population growth was abandoned the past 50 years. Further reasons can be found in Beck & Kolankiewicz (2000) “The Environmental Movement’s Retreat from Advocating U.S. Population Stabilization” and Weisman’s “Countdown: Our last, Best hope for a future on Earth.”

Continue reading →

Posted in Biodiversity, Climate Change, Deforestation, Disease, Overpopulation, Pesticides, Pollution, Population, Transportation, Water Pollution, Wildfire | Tagged , , , , , , , | 15 Comments

What would happen if trucks stopped running?

Preface. In “Why You Should Love Trucks” I showed that essential supply chains depend on trucks nearly completely.  Because of little inventory and dependence on just-in-time deliveries, our civilization would almost immediately feel the repercussions of trucks stopping. In fact, civilization would crash within a week. So finding a drop-in replacement for finite diesel ought to be the top priority. A

Although I use the term peak oil, the real issue is peak diesel, and not just for road trucks. Even more important are agricultural tractors, harvesters, and other diesel equipment, mining trucks, construction, logging, and all other heavy-duty trucks used across every industry and sector. Plus locomotives and ships (and airplanes, but they can be done without).  Like cars. And electrifying them frees up gasoline. Diesel engines can only run on diesel, and have been refined for over a century to do so with twice the efficiency and much greater power and torque than gasoline.

Continue reading →

Posted in Cascading Failure, Dependence on Oil, Electric & Hydrogen trucks impossible, Infrastructure & Fast Crash, Oil Shocks, Transportation Infrastructure, Transportation Supply chain, Trucks, When Trucks Stop Running | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

How to survive a nuclear winter

Preface. New Zealand and other countries in the southern hemisphere are expected to be safer since they are far from nuclear targets. But they would still experience extreme temperature drops and less sunlight, though less than the Northern hemisphere.  Still, there would be plenty of challenges from a global economic collapse, imports such as medicine, food, fossil fuels and other essential goods, and less food grown. In the northern hemisphere ozone losses would peak at 75%, but even the southern hemisphere would reach 20-40% ozone loss and consequent protection from UV rays for humans, animals, and plants leading to less crop production.

Posts on nuclear war can be found here, and on nuclear winter here.

Alice Friedemann  www.energyskeptic.com  Author of Life After Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Energy; When Trucks Stop Running: Energy and the Future of Transportation”, Barriers to Making Algal Biofuels, & “Crunch! Whole Grain Artisan Chips and Crackers”.  Women in ecology  Podcasts: WGBH, Financial Sense, Jore, Planet: Critical, Crazy Town, Collapse Chronicles, Derrick Jensen, Practical Prepping, Kunstler 253 &278, Peak Prosperity,  Index of best energyskeptic posts

***

Continue reading →

Posted in Nuclear War, Where to Be or Not to Be | Tagged , , | Comments Off on How to survive a nuclear winter